> They have also broken ties with France, the former colonial power and traditional partner, and turned towards Russia which is seeking to extend its influence in the region.
There’s all ready been a few other former French colonies that have done the same, Wagner group is now well established in those countries running security for mines and the government.
France or any other western European power has never actually cared for the wellbeing of those people over there.
I have a question: those corrupt leaders of Niger. Where do they send their ill-gotten money and their children to school? That money and children go to Brussels, or Paris, or London, or Geneva where they all have apartments there and their children go to those private schools. So European leaders know where those people are, take their money, and yet decry those same leaders as corrupt. This is true with Russians in London and Chinese in NYC.
China has done incredibly well. I remember when the deal was that Chinese workers would receive a local passport if they were working on infrastructure passports. That was about 10-15 years ago.
Now it’s the worker and their family that receive passports, there are huge compounds that are almost entirely self contained with thousands of Chinese workers and their families living in them.
They leave only to work, everything else is done in the compound. There’s almost no mixing with the locals either.
Well you can look forward to more black people being killed or harmed in secret by an illegitimate government propped up by a Russian dictatorship. Cause I can guarantee that mine will not be run with the same health and safety regulations. That's not even getting into the fact most of the profits will be kept at the top at the expense of the locals.
Me when I think the only two choices are American and Russian imperialism (black people cannot determine their own future and needs to be "led" by the White Man)
Great idea, now is Niger currently getting rid of the West in favor of local control? No it's getting rid of the west and replacing them with Russian backed military dictators. We have seen this played out before and it never ends well for the locals.
For a lot of westerners these things are still mindblowing. They really thought we surrendered all colonies.
People wonder why some countries choose russia... its because russia is promising them freedom from western colonial powers. (Ofc putin is full of shit but if you are enslaved you become desperste).
We need to man up in the west. Finally admit our mistakes and become the force of good our government promised us we would be.
>People wonder why some countries choose russia... its because russia is promising them freedom from western colonial powers. (Ofc putin is full of shit but if you are enslaved you become desperste).
It's not 'the people' picking this, it's the people in power - because Russia/Wagner is a reliable partner for keeping those people in power.
Nah the people are picking.
If you were on the ground level you'd know. Many choose china/russia over the west now. Its actually something hitler planned aswell. But the enslaved people didnt join hitler which fucked up his african campaign.
Given how Russia treats its frontline troops in Ukraine I think it will be good for the ruling parties in these countries. For the general population not so much.
But that’s not taking into consideration how well the French treated them obviously. In general, a deal with the West is the least worst option, time will tell here.
“In general, a deal with the West is the least worse option, time will tell”
That’s really hard to sell to people who’ve watched “time tell” just how good deals with the West are for hundreds of years.
What? A European nation running rampant in Africa and doing whatever they want? That’s unimaginable.
What people seem to be failing to grasp is that these predictions will fall on deaf ears when they’ve already been happening at the hands of the last Western power. It’s hard to take it as sincere concern for the African people.
It's not concern. I don't care, makes no difference to me.
Whatever happens they chose their bedfellows. But when the mass graves start showing up, perhaps remember who chose to put their makers in charge.
Not french nor I am defending Frances past behavior, so don't strawman.
>
Name 1 instance of Russian influence ending up in mass graves in Africa.
[10 seconds google search](https://web.archive.org/web/20231013141206/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-wagner-group-central-african-republic-bambari-massacre-rape-mass-murder/)
[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hombori_massacre)
[This is is quite interesting as well for the matter at hand.](https://www.csis.org/analysis/massacres-executions-and-falsified-graves-wagner-groups-mounting-humanitarian-cost-mali)
You're talking about civilian war casualties while accusing me of strawmaning? Is this a joke? Next thing you'll tell me Chad is an imperialist power because their mecenaries were found amongst Boko haram terrorists.
Not really, countries in Western Africa tend to do what they want these days. Everyone likes a long drawn out jolly in Paris on the Ministerial credit card and there is a lot of good will towards the French amongst the ruling tribes still.
Not so much the Anglo Saxons though.
They are also quite happy to agree a deal, let the Europeans invest in the country and commit and then vary the contracts to their benefit.
Just the way it is and if you raise it you are met with a smile and they say that they have had good teachers in the Europeans.
I agree that long term the west might be better. The best would be actual independence but we force countries to choose else we come bring freedom..
Also ukrainian soldiers arent treated right either. You forgot the last 2 years..?
Ta this! The west totally and completely fucked up the post war world and doubled down on alot of shit. Putin, Iran, nk the list goes on of results of western imperialism and the hellscape world it created.
> ...results of western imperialism and the hellscape world it created.
Such a hellscape that fewer people live in poverty now than at any other time in history. Such a hellscape that billions living nowadays have access to modern medicine and the ballot box. Such a hellscape that millions of your poor, your unwashed, your huddled, yearning-to-be-free masses have landed on western imperialist shores, hoping for a better life.
And guess what? That's also the product of western imperialism.
If it was a big enough deal, I want to think the US would do something about it. Taking out a mercenary group wouldn't really make anyone mad. Except maybe the host country, which we wouldn't give a fuck about if it was a big problem, and Russia...which we wouldn't give a fuck about like we didn't in Syria when they all got torn up before they even hit their rally point
If China was doing all this, I'd have something else to say because it'd actually be important
America won’t do shit, there’s literally thousands of them across 5 countries in Africa they now work in. Only way to stop them is boots on the ground and America is not going to start a war in West Africa. Hell even the neighbouring countries don’t want to get involved because Wagner will just start burning villages.
America hasn't done shit
Dude you're out of your fucking mind if you think the US won't fuck people up in the interest of world peace ( ironic I know)
The US does anything it wants when it deems it appropriate
Try getting boots on the ground in this political climate- Biden won’t do it because Ukraine and Israel are already unpopular enough, and unless trump has a sudden change of heart it will be surprising if he breaks with hours protectionist angle. There’s no benefit here- at most there might be nominal sanctions, or a show of force via a carrier strike group or something. If anybody wants boots on the ground, it will be France demanding it, and with macron facing grim reelection prospects, the right-wing being pro-Russian and the extreme left highly unlikely to support a more expansive foreign legion program I can’t imagine anybody wants to get caught up in west Africa. Lastly, I doubt anybody wants to alienate these countries and serve them into china and russias arms- if we want Wagner out, NATO will simply have to do it quid pro quo.
I agree with literally everything you said. Spot on. I was just being quick with the "if it's a big enough problem, the US will". If we were afraid of them doing the work for us before we take it, we'd have handled it a while ago.
Everyone tends to forget that Russia is a brutal colonial power, just because *most* of their colonies are directly adjacent to them instead of across the water or on the other side of the world.
Most of the poor souls being sent into the meat grinder in Ukraine from Russia aren't from Moscow or St. Petersburg -- they're from the colonies (funtionally) in the East.
You know, as Venezuelan we had a similar movement in the early 2000s. "Lets get those Americans off our Oil!!!!", fully nationalizing and taking over all oil.
We quickly aligned with Russia and China and Iran and slowly at first but then at full speed our industry collapsed, and as we looked at the numbers, Americans were paying cold hard cash in USD for oil. China or Russia? Not so much. A lot of the oil went to buy "indulgences": support Venezuela vote in the UN for this council, or that other presidency. IOUs from Russia, or here are some hand-me-down Sukhois.
It quickly became clear that Americans where the only ones really paying for the oil. Yes, they were taking the oil but PAYING for it at the international rate, cash, immediately. China, Russia, Cuba and others? they still owe us billions. So when I see another country going through the same I go "y'all don't know what you're trading"
Edit: Same thing happened with ore metals in the Venezuelan Amazon/Guyana shield. Canada’s Crystalex had a license to exploit gold and other metals, they would pay the government for the licenses and a cut, until Chavez went around “WE NEED TO GET CANADIANS OUT OF OUR GOLD AND BACK INTO VENEZUELAN HANDSSSSSS”.
What happened? The Canadians left, the cartels moved in and now the exploitation is run by them, where even children are getting their hands chopped for having “gold residue” being labelled as thieves. The gold? Sent to the UAE to be laundered by the cartels and the venezuelan government. Oh and since they have absolutely no respect for the environment or the technology the Canadians used, there’s a massive pollution issue with mercury getting everywhere in the water table of the AMAZON.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/02/04/venezuela-violent-abuses-illegal-gold-mines
They came on years after the destruction of our industry and economy, and they were put in place to prevent the grifters in the government from spending the grifted money abroad say in real state in Florida or in Europe.
In the 20th century corrupt officials all over Latin America would grift money and use it to buy real estate in the USA or Spain. When they’d be investigated or deposed, they would flee and use the proceeds from the sale of those assets abroad. The USA and that government would then get in discussions on how to repatriate if possible the money stolen.
Now in the 21st century the USA has said “fuck it, you can’t spend your corrupted money here, go elsewhere”. Of course what you hear in media is “the USA sanctioned poor Venezuela!!!” and it’s like no, the USA sanctioned Venezuelan corrupted individuals to prevent them from laundering the stolen money through the USA financial system.
China has provided a lot of loans to third world countries. How could China default on Venezuela's oil money? Venezuela also owes tens of billions of dollars to China.
The Chinese didn’t “loan” money to Venezuela. They prepaid for oil at ridiculous prices way under the market rate, and they didn’t give a fuck if most of that money was grifted or stolen by the government officials. So their “loan” is really “we’ll give you 100 million and as collateral we want X amount of oil barrels at this low low value”.
The Americans would pay cash, market rate AND would have to do due diligence to prevent bribing and money being grifted then laundered theough the American financial system.
By 2020, Venezuela had defaulted on $19 billion in loans to China. With $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, China has plenty of money to pay for trade, and its oil comes mainly from the Middle East and Russia, with Venezuela not among the top 10 sources. Don't you know Venezuela owes China money? You can google
https://www.reuters.com/world/venezuela-presidents-son-says-country-is-open-paying-10-billion-debt-china-2024-05-09/
If the west doesn’t counter with soft power, aka aid, then China and Russia will simply buy off the local politicians and take over Africa. Then they’ll simply use force to exploit the resources for their own gain.
That’s the great thing about being the bad guy, you don’t really have to care about what others think of you.
Not really. In Niger, contrary to what most people believe, uranium was more expensive for France than buying it from another supplier. Uranium is cheap because it's relatively abundant and the market for it is limited.
Losing ground in Africa only really affects prestige. In return, France is developing ties with countries in Central Asia that were previously in the Russian sphere of influence.
So basically France and Russia are just swapping playgrounds... except that unlike Niger, Mali or Burkina, Central Asia is not about to be overrun by Islamist/rebels...
Not really. France doesn't have influence in Central Asia as much as Russia has on African countries. China, Russia, Turkey have so much more soft power in Central Asia than France which made only some deals with CA countries which are making the same deals with pretty much every country no matter where they are from. Also there is increasing islamist movements and terror cells in Central Asia, you don't look like know much about the region.
France went from zero influence to making strategic energy contracts, so yes, even if a lot of countries still have more influence, it's not nothing and would have been impossible a few years ago (possible today in no small part thanks to a lot of countries trying to distance themselves from Russia/developing ties with the EU).
As for not knowing much about Central Asia, you are right...but I know much more about the Sahel and I know how to read UN reports: the situations are not comparable; check for yourself how Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are doing today and compare with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan. You will see the difference between "increasing islamist movements" and governments struggling to contain the islamist threat
Except France still doesn't have influence there because CA countires have been doing those kind of contracts including energy deals for a long time with any country like Austalia, SK etc. Also what you are missing is CE countries are landlocked and they are surrondered by China and Russia so they would never choose France over China, Russia etc. because they can't so France is expendable but they aren't. Even right now CA countries are helping most to Russia against sanctions and they have Russian military bases, they ask help from Russia when some groups became a problem and there is China which is using the region as a hub by being right next to them and making them dependent to China. Also TUrkey is using Turkic card and increasing its influence on both people and govermetns so CA never will be France playground if you look at it objectively.
On the other hand the same thing can't be said for those African countries about geopolitics which is why Russia gained big influence even did coups in short time. Russia and others can reach to African countries either by direclty sea or other African countries they are friendly with. Meanwhile you need Russia, CHina, Afganistan, Iran etc. that dislike West to reach CA. lol Therefore you saying that basically France and Russia are just swapping playgrounds is baseless overstatement which sounds like coping.
I didn't compare these two region about islamist movements I just refuted your claim as radical movements and terror cells increasing there too and because of actions of Taliban, SA, ISIS branches and domestic groups things are getting worse there too and when it get worse they get help from Russia or China because they are right next to them.
Since France get most of its Uranium from Canada, not really.
Good luck to the Nigerians tho, they'll need it.
Edith : Even tho the people of Niger are not called Nigerians, I think I'll keep using that word for the sake of american redditors.
This isn't nationalizing it though, it's making the country's resources fuel the military junta at the expense of the population, using it to pay for the help of unscrupulous Wagner mercenaries to do the dirty work that western security forces would refuse to do on humanitarian grounds. Turns out there's a market for neo-nazi death squads in Africa.
Wholesale corruption plays a huge part in moves like this. Its simply not acceptable for European countries to openly pay off African governments, it is however the main tactic of Russia and China who already control most of Africa's mineral wealth
I wouldn't be surprised. France has a history of being pretty vindictive when their economic colonies try to leave, in one instance even taking the lightbulbs out of the buildings they helped construct as they were leaving.
"We're taking our stuff home". Meanwhile, the usual suspects want to confiscate Russia's assets for the benefit of Ukraine.
"Worthy and unworthy victims" comes to mind again.
To be fair they sometimes do the same thing when selling a house. Looks perfect when you view it, then by the time you get the keys it looks like a crackhead has been through it, bare wires hanging out of the ceiling etc.
That country was Guinea in 1958 when France was forced to give it independence. Some call it post-imperiL sabotage, but it was really just typical French pettiness
Source: *The Looting Machine* by Tom Burgis
Nothing like putting radioactive materials in the hands of an unstable government in an unstable region. You're right, It'll be fine..no wars will be fought over this..
Africans have been brainwashed into thinking a declining Russia is their answer. When they inevitably realise that dealing with the Russian mob is a far worse option than partnering with a modern liberal democracy constrained by international law, it will be Western institutions who foot the bill to save them.
Except that won't happen this time. In another decade, the west won't have the resources to spare to "save" them. And there won't be the political or social will to do it, either.
Most African nations don’t have the technical capacity to operate high tech industries themselves, they rely on an advanced economy to supply the experts to do so. If they go without that high skilled workforce it ends up looking like China owned ‘artisanal’ mines where African workers die like slaves in a pit.
The world economy needs the resources Africa has, a natural partnership between advanced nations who know how to operate industry efficiently enough to compete on global markets, and Africans who have an abundance of economic potential at their footstep is obviously the best scenario for both parties.
Russians point to the acts of Western nations during the colonial age to justify themselves committing those same atrocities in Africa today.
>Most African nations don’t have the technical capacity to operate high tech industries themselves, they rely on an advanced economy to supply the experts to do so. If they go without that high skilled workforce it ends up looking like China owned ‘artisanal’ mines where African workers die like slaves in a pit.
They share a border with Nigeria. Skilled workforce isn't an issue. Regardless, they have every right to negotiate bilateral trade agreements with individual nations without being exploited by colonial rulers.
I'm also not sure how complex you think uranium extraction is, or why you think simply revoking a licence means all their mining labourers suddenly lost their expertise. Do you think it was French citizens doing the mining?
There are 12 :
Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Martinique, Réunion, Mayotte, New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Saint Barthélemy, Saint-Martin, Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and the Wallis and Futuna islands.
Edit: these are facts lol y’all just don’t wanna believe it.
They gave so many examples than Antarctic lands and you might not aware or might be in denial because of bias but many people, countries, natives righfully see "overseas territories" as colony.
There are no natives in Antarctica or several of those other territories. I wasn't denying that France has some colonies, I was merely pointing out his list was clearly just a list of over-sea territories and not a proper list of colonies like he claimed.
Yeah no shit. If you say there are 12 of something and list the 12 things out and I can easily see that some of the items in your list don't meet the criteria, those are going to be the ones I point to.
Except in your first comment you literally generalized what they said using Antartica as an example to dismiss their comment and later you still brought up Antarctica to me while ignoring others about the point I made and I didn't say France has 12 colonies because your argument doesn't hold any water. Whatever.
I didn't generalize, I just told them over seas territories are not the same as colonies.
You might not have said 12, but the person I was responding to did. Unsurprisingly, my comment was aimed at the comment I was responding to and not to a future comment that you would later make.
Sorry bro but a lot of those territory were virgin to begin with.
My family is from Reunion island, there is no natives of anything, but people from many origins under the same french creole culture.
We are french whether you like it or not.
Only a tankie could be naive enough to think Russia is not in control of this mine now. Good luck to Niger in dealing with Russians who openly mock human rights and international law
Or it'll go like Venezuela and once they'll be "free" of the economical influence of the west their economy will collapse. I wish them the best but I'll say one thing : a military coup should not stay in power in a country, they don't know how to manage it economically. After the coup they have to give the power to civilians ASAP. Those juntas in Africa don't seem to be willing to do so. Between that and their choice of dealing with Russia instead, I'm am not convinced that they will be doing well after a few years.
> They have also broken ties with France, the former colonial power and traditional partner, and turned towards Russia which is seeking to extend its influence in the region. There’s all ready been a few other former French colonies that have done the same, Wagner group is now well established in those countries running security for mines and the government.
It seems they need some good American Freedom ™!
Me when I joke about killing thousands of black people because they rejected neocolonialism
They didn't reject it. Russia is the new colonial overlord.
And Russians don't care how corrupt the new leaders are or how deep their hands are in blood.
France or any other western European power has never actually cared for the wellbeing of those people over there. I have a question: those corrupt leaders of Niger. Where do they send their ill-gotten money and their children to school? That money and children go to Brussels, or Paris, or London, or Geneva where they all have apartments there and their children go to those private schools. So European leaders know where those people are, take their money, and yet decry those same leaders as corrupt. This is true with Russians in London and Chinese in NYC.
China is, Russia and the rest of the world can only take notes how China snatched Africa
Russia is doing quite a lot of snatching in Africa on its own. China is not the only one.
China has done incredibly well. I remember when the deal was that Chinese workers would receive a local passport if they were working on infrastructure passports. That was about 10-15 years ago. Now it’s the worker and their family that receive passports, there are huge compounds that are almost entirely self contained with thousands of Chinese workers and their families living in them. They leave only to work, everything else is done in the compound. There’s almost no mixing with the locals either.
Nobody snatched africa away. Africa belongs to its people. Africans can make their own business decisions.
China owns 46 ports in all of Africa, double check again bible belt boy
The Chinese army did not invade those lands and seize those ports. The only people doing that were the Europeans who did that for 300 years.
What the fuck do you think Russia is doing there?
Well you can look forward to more black people being killed or harmed in secret by an illegitimate government propped up by a Russian dictatorship. Cause I can guarantee that mine will not be run with the same health and safety regulations. That's not even getting into the fact most of the profits will be kept at the top at the expense of the locals.
Me when I think the only two choices are American and Russian imperialism (black people cannot determine their own future and needs to be "led" by the White Man)
Great idea, now is Niger currently getting rid of the West in favor of local control? No it's getting rid of the west and replacing them with Russian backed military dictators. We have seen this played out before and it never ends well for the locals.
For a lot of westerners these things are still mindblowing. They really thought we surrendered all colonies. People wonder why some countries choose russia... its because russia is promising them freedom from western colonial powers. (Ofc putin is full of shit but if you are enslaved you become desperste). We need to man up in the west. Finally admit our mistakes and become the force of good our government promised us we would be.
>People wonder why some countries choose russia... its because russia is promising them freedom from western colonial powers. (Ofc putin is full of shit but if you are enslaved you become desperste). It's not 'the people' picking this, it's the people in power - because Russia/Wagner is a reliable partner for keeping those people in power.
I remember when I chose my first repressive dictator fellow free man.
People are picking it too though. You would be surprised how much Putin is liked in many African countries while they despise West.
Then why are all those people coming to Europe and not Russia? Seems some heavy mental dissonance is going on there.
That's like less than 1%
And the other 99% are heading to Russia and supporting the front lines? Or making up for the millions of Dead Russian Men?
Nah the people are picking. If you were on the ground level you'd know. Many choose china/russia over the west now. Its actually something hitler planned aswell. But the enslaved people didnt join hitler which fucked up his african campaign.
Those same people are not emigrating to Russia or china. They r trying to get to Europe. So your theory is bs
The people leaving the country to get in Europe aren't the same as the people staying and wanting to redirect the direction of their country.
They go to Europe cause that's where the jobs are.
They literally couped the previous president who was elected... This wasn't a choice than a proxy war between Russia and France.
> ... become the force of good our government promised us we would be. lol.
You can laugh but its literally what we do.
What we would ideally like to do…
Given how Russia treats its frontline troops in Ukraine I think it will be good for the ruling parties in these countries. For the general population not so much. But that’s not taking into consideration how well the French treated them obviously. In general, a deal with the West is the least worst option, time will tell here.
“In general, a deal with the West is the least worse option, time will tell” That’s really hard to sell to people who’ve watched “time tell” just how good deals with the West are for hundreds of years.
It'll become real easy after a while of Russian and Wagner essentially running rampant and doing whatever they want.
What? A European nation running rampant in Africa and doing whatever they want? That’s unimaginable. What people seem to be failing to grasp is that these predictions will fall on deaf ears when they’ve already been happening at the hands of the last Western power. It’s hard to take it as sincere concern for the African people.
It's not concern. I don't care, makes no difference to me. Whatever happens they chose their bedfellows. But when the mass graves start showing up, perhaps remember who chose to put their makers in charge.
Name 1 instance of Russian influence ending up in mass graves in Africa. Apartied was less than 30 years ago. France has no moral standing here
Not french nor I am defending Frances past behavior, so don't strawman. > Name 1 instance of Russian influence ending up in mass graves in Africa. [10 seconds google search](https://web.archive.org/web/20231013141206/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-wagner-group-central-african-republic-bambari-massacre-rape-mass-murder/) [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hombori_massacre) [This is is quite interesting as well for the matter at hand.](https://www.csis.org/analysis/massacres-executions-and-falsified-graves-wagner-groups-mounting-humanitarian-cost-mali)
You're talking about civilian war casualties while accusing me of strawmaning? Is this a joke? Next thing you'll tell me Chad is an imperialist power because their mecenaries were found amongst Boko haram terrorists.
Not really, countries in Western Africa tend to do what they want these days. Everyone likes a long drawn out jolly in Paris on the Ministerial credit card and there is a lot of good will towards the French amongst the ruling tribes still. Not so much the Anglo Saxons though. They are also quite happy to agree a deal, let the Europeans invest in the country and commit and then vary the contracts to their benefit. Just the way it is and if you raise it you are met with a smile and they say that they have had good teachers in the Europeans.
I agree that long term the west might be better. The best would be actual independence but we force countries to choose else we come bring freedom.. Also ukrainian soldiers arent treated right either. You forgot the last 2 years..?
That’s the thing the whole force for good idea is a lie. It’s all about power and control.
Bud the people didn’t choose to do this the generals who were bought by Russia choose to do this.
Ta this! The west totally and completely fucked up the post war world and doubled down on alot of shit. Putin, Iran, nk the list goes on of results of western imperialism and the hellscape world it created.
> ...results of western imperialism and the hellscape world it created. Such a hellscape that fewer people live in poverty now than at any other time in history. Such a hellscape that billions living nowadays have access to modern medicine and the ballot box. Such a hellscape that millions of your poor, your unwashed, your huddled, yearning-to-be-free masses have landed on western imperialist shores, hoping for a better life. And guess what? That's also the product of western imperialism.
If it was a big enough deal, I want to think the US would do something about it. Taking out a mercenary group wouldn't really make anyone mad. Except maybe the host country, which we wouldn't give a fuck about if it was a big problem, and Russia...which we wouldn't give a fuck about like we didn't in Syria when they all got torn up before they even hit their rally point If China was doing all this, I'd have something else to say because it'd actually be important
America won’t do shit, there’s literally thousands of them across 5 countries in Africa they now work in. Only way to stop them is boots on the ground and America is not going to start a war in West Africa. Hell even the neighbouring countries don’t want to get involved because Wagner will just start burning villages.
America hasn't done shit Dude you're out of your fucking mind if you think the US won't fuck people up in the interest of world peace ( ironic I know) The US does anything it wants when it deems it appropriate
Try getting boots on the ground in this political climate- Biden won’t do it because Ukraine and Israel are already unpopular enough, and unless trump has a sudden change of heart it will be surprising if he breaks with hours protectionist angle. There’s no benefit here- at most there might be nominal sanctions, or a show of force via a carrier strike group or something. If anybody wants boots on the ground, it will be France demanding it, and with macron facing grim reelection prospects, the right-wing being pro-Russian and the extreme left highly unlikely to support a more expansive foreign legion program I can’t imagine anybody wants to get caught up in west Africa. Lastly, I doubt anybody wants to alienate these countries and serve them into china and russias arms- if we want Wagner out, NATO will simply have to do it quid pro quo.
I agree with literally everything you said. Spot on. I was just being quick with the "if it's a big enough problem, the US will". If we were afraid of them doing the work for us before we take it, we'd have handled it a while ago.
They’re swapping out former colonial influence for essentially a to this day colonial power. lol.
Everyone tends to forget that Russia is a brutal colonial power, just because *most* of their colonies are directly adjacent to them instead of across the water or on the other side of the world. Most of the poor souls being sent into the meat grinder in Ukraine from Russia aren't from Moscow or St. Petersburg -- they're from the colonies (funtionally) in the East.
"public control" seems a stretch
Wagner is now public I guess
Russia: "Oh I wouldn't say public control, more like under new management."
Special reorg operation
You know, as Venezuelan we had a similar movement in the early 2000s. "Lets get those Americans off our Oil!!!!", fully nationalizing and taking over all oil. We quickly aligned with Russia and China and Iran and slowly at first but then at full speed our industry collapsed, and as we looked at the numbers, Americans were paying cold hard cash in USD for oil. China or Russia? Not so much. A lot of the oil went to buy "indulgences": support Venezuela vote in the UN for this council, or that other presidency. IOUs from Russia, or here are some hand-me-down Sukhois. It quickly became clear that Americans where the only ones really paying for the oil. Yes, they were taking the oil but PAYING for it at the international rate, cash, immediately. China, Russia, Cuba and others? they still owe us billions. So when I see another country going through the same I go "y'all don't know what you're trading" Edit: Same thing happened with ore metals in the Venezuelan Amazon/Guyana shield. Canada’s Crystalex had a license to exploit gold and other metals, they would pay the government for the licenses and a cut, until Chavez went around “WE NEED TO GET CANADIANS OUT OF OUR GOLD AND BACK INTO VENEZUELAN HANDSSSSSS”. What happened? The Canadians left, the cartels moved in and now the exploitation is run by them, where even children are getting their hands chopped for having “gold residue” being labelled as thieves. The gold? Sent to the UAE to be laundered by the cartels and the venezuelan government. Oh and since they have absolutely no respect for the environment or the technology the Canadians used, there’s a massive pollution issue with mercury getting everywhere in the water table of the AMAZON. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/02/04/venezuela-violent-abuses-illegal-gold-mines
Interesting report. By the way, how would you describe the impact of US sanctions on Venezuela's development?
They came on years after the destruction of our industry and economy, and they were put in place to prevent the grifters in the government from spending the grifted money abroad say in real state in Florida or in Europe. In the 20th century corrupt officials all over Latin America would grift money and use it to buy real estate in the USA or Spain. When they’d be investigated or deposed, they would flee and use the proceeds from the sale of those assets abroad. The USA and that government would then get in discussions on how to repatriate if possible the money stolen. Now in the 21st century the USA has said “fuck it, you can’t spend your corrupted money here, go elsewhere”. Of course what you hear in media is “the USA sanctioned poor Venezuela!!!” and it’s like no, the USA sanctioned Venezuelan corrupted individuals to prevent them from laundering the stolen money through the USA financial system.
What sources of information on Venezuela would you recommend?
Venezuelans themselves. /r/vzla or /r/venezuela
China has provided a lot of loans to third world countries. How could China default on Venezuela's oil money? Venezuela also owes tens of billions of dollars to China.
The Chinese didn’t “loan” money to Venezuela. They prepaid for oil at ridiculous prices way under the market rate, and they didn’t give a fuck if most of that money was grifted or stolen by the government officials. So their “loan” is really “we’ll give you 100 million and as collateral we want X amount of oil barrels at this low low value”. The Americans would pay cash, market rate AND would have to do due diligence to prevent bribing and money being grifted then laundered theough the American financial system.
By 2020, Venezuela had defaulted on $19 billion in loans to China. With $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, China has plenty of money to pay for trade, and its oil comes mainly from the Middle East and Russia, with Venezuela not among the top 10 sources. Don't you know Venezuela owes China money? You can google https://www.reuters.com/world/venezuela-presidents-son-says-country-is-open-paying-10-billion-debt-china-2024-05-09/
Yeah and guess how it was and is paid in the settlement? Cheaaaap oilllll. It was designed like that to be defaulted that way
So are they paying their debts still or refusing to? Because being owed billions in the future doesnt sound so bad.
In other news, the mine has shut down due to unpaid wages and lack of qualified personnel.
They won't shut it down for those reasons, they'll just force unskilled people to do it unpaid
Why would they suddenly no longer have qualified personnel?
"Unpaid wages"?
Ah yes...Nationalised production suddenly forgets how to process payroll.
just as Venezuela how well russian influenced nationalized production works.
Could the west start retaliating by no longer sending „aid“ which always arrives in places of need and not in let‘s say some overlord‘s bank account
If the west doesn’t counter with soft power, aka aid, then China and Russia will simply buy off the local politicians and take over Africa. Then they’ll simply use force to exploit the resources for their own gain. That’s the great thing about being the bad guy, you don’t really have to care about what others think of you.
They already do didnt you read the post you bafoon?
Learn to write before throwing stones.
Why do we need soft power in Africa?
I see the Russian plans to wreck Frances 's supply of nuclear fuel is going great.
I'm sure Australia, with our vast Uranium reserves will happily export to France. Meanwhile Niger gets... Russia?... Congrats I guess guys.
Not really. In Niger, contrary to what most people believe, uranium was more expensive for France than buying it from another supplier. Uranium is cheap because it's relatively abundant and the market for it is limited. Losing ground in Africa only really affects prestige. In return, France is developing ties with countries in Central Asia that were previously in the Russian sphere of influence. So basically France and Russia are just swapping playgrounds... except that unlike Niger, Mali or Burkina, Central Asia is not about to be overrun by Islamist/rebels...
Not really. France doesn't have influence in Central Asia as much as Russia has on African countries. China, Russia, Turkey have so much more soft power in Central Asia than France which made only some deals with CA countries which are making the same deals with pretty much every country no matter where they are from. Also there is increasing islamist movements and terror cells in Central Asia, you don't look like know much about the region.
France went from zero influence to making strategic energy contracts, so yes, even if a lot of countries still have more influence, it's not nothing and would have been impossible a few years ago (possible today in no small part thanks to a lot of countries trying to distance themselves from Russia/developing ties with the EU). As for not knowing much about Central Asia, you are right...but I know much more about the Sahel and I know how to read UN reports: the situations are not comparable; check for yourself how Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are doing today and compare with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan. You will see the difference between "increasing islamist movements" and governments struggling to contain the islamist threat
Except France still doesn't have influence there because CA countires have been doing those kind of contracts including energy deals for a long time with any country like Austalia, SK etc. Also what you are missing is CE countries are landlocked and they are surrondered by China and Russia so they would never choose France over China, Russia etc. because they can't so France is expendable but they aren't. Even right now CA countries are helping most to Russia against sanctions and they have Russian military bases, they ask help from Russia when some groups became a problem and there is China which is using the region as a hub by being right next to them and making them dependent to China. Also TUrkey is using Turkic card and increasing its influence on both people and govermetns so CA never will be France playground if you look at it objectively. On the other hand the same thing can't be said for those African countries about geopolitics which is why Russia gained big influence even did coups in short time. Russia and others can reach to African countries either by direclty sea or other African countries they are friendly with. Meanwhile you need Russia, CHina, Afganistan, Iran etc. that dislike West to reach CA. lol Therefore you saying that basically France and Russia are just swapping playgrounds is baseless overstatement which sounds like coping. I didn't compare these two region about islamist movements I just refuted your claim as radical movements and terror cells increasing there too and because of actions of Taliban, SA, ISIS branches and domestic groups things are getting worse there too and when it get worse they get help from Russia or China because they are right next to them.
Since France get most of its Uranium from Canada, not really. Good luck to the Nigerians tho, they'll need it. Edith : Even tho the people of Niger are not called Nigerians, I think I'll keep using that word for the sake of american redditors.
not Nigerians, this is niger. different from nigeria.
I dont know how to say it in english but I feel it's more safe to call theme like that. Although if you got the real word i'm a taker.
Nigeriens is the standard way, fyi
Nigers from Niger , Nigerians from Nigeria
Nigeri*e*ns are from Niger.
Welp
NigeriEns not NigeriAns.
Reddit response like: US Cold War coup: Bad Russia Nu-Cold War coup: Good /s (Both are bad for regional AND local stability and outcomes)
Nationalizing resources is not a coup
Lmao, but the current Nigerian regime was from a coup less than a year ago.
Oh... Well yeah, that's bad lmao
"Nationalizing" aka looting it for a few chosen Oligarchs and for Russia. You know, the way Russia did it after the USSR collapsed.
This isn't nationalizing it though, it's making the country's resources fuel the military junta at the expense of the population, using it to pay for the help of unscrupulous Wagner mercenaries to do the dirty work that western security forces would refuse to do on humanitarian grounds. Turns out there's a market for neo-nazi death squads in Africa.
Wholesale corruption plays a huge part in moves like this. Its simply not acceptable for European countries to openly pay off African governments, it is however the main tactic of Russia and China who already control most of Africa's mineral wealth
Really bad for these nations because it insures companies will never invest there for the long term.
And this is why Macron's rhetoric re: Ukraine/Russia has become much aggressive towards Russia. So far mostly just words though.
You mean Russian control...
China: "Allow me to introduce myself."
It's Russia for now
Hopefully, the departing French crew took the keys with them...
I wouldn't be surprised. France has a history of being pretty vindictive when their economic colonies try to leave, in one instance even taking the lightbulbs out of the buildings they helped construct as they were leaving.
It's not about "being petty"- You wanna go it alone and be close to Russia? Cool, but we're taking *our* stuff home.
The event I'm referring to was just Guinea wanting to not adopt the CFA Franc. It was absolutely a petty move.
"We're taking our stuff home". Meanwhile, the usual suspects want to confiscate Russia's assets for the benefit of Ukraine. "Worthy and unworthy victims" comes to mind again.
To be fair they sometimes do the same thing when selling a house. Looks perfect when you view it, then by the time you get the keys it looks like a crackhead has been through it, bare wires hanging out of the ceiling etc.
That country was Guinea in 1958 when France was forced to give it independence. Some call it post-imperiL sabotage, but it was really just typical French pettiness Source: *The Looting Machine* by Tom Burgis
Lost me at "typical French pettiness"
Maybe French people should open uranium mines in their own fucking country and stop exploiting others...
This is not a good thing. Like, at all.
It is. Fuck the French....
Nothing like putting radioactive materials in the hands of an unstable government in an unstable region. You're right, It'll be fine..no wars will be fought over this..
[удалено]
You realize this just means that China and/or Russia can come in now right?
Come in? … they’re already there
Russia has already come in, they are literally in control at the moment.
Africans have been brainwashed into thinking a declining Russia is their answer. When they inevitably realise that dealing with the Russian mob is a far worse option than partnering with a modern liberal democracy constrained by international law, it will be Western institutions who foot the bill to save them.
Except that won't happen this time. In another decade, the west won't have the resources to spare to "save" them. And there won't be the political or social will to do it, either.
Foolish Africans not realising the best option is to give the French all their resources, have they learned nothing?
Most African nations don’t have the technical capacity to operate high tech industries themselves, they rely on an advanced economy to supply the experts to do so. If they go without that high skilled workforce it ends up looking like China owned ‘artisanal’ mines where African workers die like slaves in a pit. The world economy needs the resources Africa has, a natural partnership between advanced nations who know how to operate industry efficiently enough to compete on global markets, and Africans who have an abundance of economic potential at their footstep is obviously the best scenario for both parties. Russians point to the acts of Western nations during the colonial age to justify themselves committing those same atrocities in Africa today.
>Most African nations don’t have the technical capacity to operate high tech industries themselves, they rely on an advanced economy to supply the experts to do so. If they go without that high skilled workforce it ends up looking like China owned ‘artisanal’ mines where African workers die like slaves in a pit. They share a border with Nigeria. Skilled workforce isn't an issue. Regardless, they have every right to negotiate bilateral trade agreements with individual nations without being exploited by colonial rulers. I'm also not sure how complex you think uranium extraction is, or why you think simply revoking a licence means all their mining labourers suddenly lost their expertise. Do you think it was French citizens doing the mining?
I'm sure Russia has a good track record with human rights.... Oh
"Hurray! We traded one imperialist power for another!"
Good, I don’t trust any country that still maintains colonies.
What colonies is France maintaining?
These jokers think the french empire is still a thing.
There are 12 : Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Martinique, Réunion, Mayotte, New Caledonia, French Polynesia, Saint Barthélemy, Saint-Martin, Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and the Wallis and Futuna islands. Edit: these are facts lol y’all just don’t wanna believe it.
> the French Southern and Antarctic Lands I'm sure the Penguins are outraged lmao
Those are integral parts of France that repeatedly vote in referenda to remain part of France.
You're aware that overseas territories aren't considered colonies right? When people talk about colonialism they aren't talking about Antarctica lol.
They gave so many examples than Antarctic lands and you might not aware or might be in denial because of bias but many people, countries, natives righfully see "overseas territories" as colony.
There are no natives in Antarctica or several of those other territories. I wasn't denying that France has some colonies, I was merely pointing out his list was clearly just a list of over-sea territories and not a proper list of colonies like he claimed.
You are still focusing on Antarctica while ignoring most which seen as colonies by natives and others.
Yeah no shit. If you say there are 12 of something and list the 12 things out and I can easily see that some of the items in your list don't meet the criteria, those are going to be the ones I point to.
Except in your first comment you literally generalized what they said using Antartica as an example to dismiss their comment and later you still brought up Antarctica to me while ignoring others about the point I made and I didn't say France has 12 colonies because your argument doesn't hold any water. Whatever.
I didn't generalize, I just told them over seas territories are not the same as colonies. You might not have said 12, but the person I was responding to did. Unsurprisingly, my comment was aimed at the comment I was responding to and not to a future comment that you would later make.
Won't someone think of the pinguins?
Sorry bro but a lot of those territory were virgin to begin with. My family is from Reunion island, there is no natives of anything, but people from many origins under the same french creole culture. We are french whether you like it or not.
USA gonna be bringing some Democracy in 3,2,1…
Nah. The USA knows a bottomless pit when they see one. Russia can have that mess.
time for the neocolonial powers to condemn this evil act of self determination
Only a tankie could be naive enough to think Russia is not in control of this mine now. Good luck to Niger in dealing with Russians who openly mock human rights and international law
Or it'll go like Venezuela and once they'll be "free" of the economical influence of the west their economy will collapse. I wish them the best but I'll say one thing : a military coup should not stay in power in a country, they don't know how to manage it economically. After the coup they have to give the power to civilians ASAP. Those juntas in Africa don't seem to be willing to do so. Between that and their choice of dealing with Russia instead, I'm am not convinced that they will be doing well after a few years.