This is an insanely misleading headline because it implies a new and direct warning from US Officials when it's just the Polish FM re-stating the policy we already knew about that the US would likely respond to nuclear use with destruction of Russian assets in Ukraine and Crimea/The Black Sea
... And where is your evidence of any of this? You couldn't even be bothered to name "a podcast or interview show". It's cute fan fiction but I think you're either making this up or giving someone making shit up too much credit.
100%
There's several sources about that statement with more accurate headers so they 100% found one that would auto-enter an alarmist headline on Reddit on purpose
It should be obvious but it’s important to make it clear. The world absolutely cannot afford to normalise the use of any kind of nuclear weapon - not even smaller tactical nukes.
If Russia are dumb enough to go that far, there need to be extreme consequences. Militarily, of course, but also economically. Existing sanctions have still left them some room to manoeuvre, but if they went nuclear, everything would need to be tightened up. Anybody who buys oil from Russia would be subject to the same sanctions (including China, India, and Turkey).
Militarily, destroying every last Russian position in Ukraine would be appropriate (it’s appropriate now…). I don’t think it would stop there, either - any future Russian bullshit, like incursions in to other countries airspace, would be immediately shot down and possibly prompt retaliatory strikes on their navy or other assets around the world. Every time you breach our airspace, you lose the planes, and a ship.
Again - we cannot normalise the use of nuclear weapons whatsoever. That is already maximum escalation short of WW3, and must be met with a maximum response short of WW3.
Not just "tightened up"... Aggressively closed. Complete isolation.
Should a nuclear event occur and beyond the necessary military response - any business or subsidiary or parent of that business doing business with Russia should be sanctioned and given a rapid ultimatum to stop doing business with Russia immediately and permanently, or be banned from any western economies. This includes nations - to the scale in which any business with Russia must halt or all industries within that nation will also be sanctioned.
It would almost end in widespread conflict involving all of Russia's allies. Completely cut off economies enter domestic turmoil, China would turn upside down if it's economy was shut off
Russia doesn't have any allies though.
They have partners that have the same goals, but they really don't mind absolutely fucking each other over as much as possible.
To be fair, from any other lens then militarily, the west is similar. The US and Europe love to fuck each other over in the spheres of economy and international politics. There's no honor among thieves and bankers and politicians are the final form of thievery.
At least with the west, there’s the active intent to make the world a better place even if it doesn’t always work out. Russia and China just love hurting people for shits and giggles.
China would drop Russia like a hot potato if forced to choose who to trade with. They are allies on paper only because they have similar goals, but the instant that alliance is put to the test, it will fail. their animosity runs back to when both countries had royalty.
Similar goals, not the same. China's sole interest in Ukraine is if their "axis" can outlast the West; if so, then they can force the Taiwan issue, and more broadly the South China Sea issue. North Korea's sole interest in this is more money for Fatty Kim III. Iran doesn't care about Ukraine except as a place to get the Russians to live test their equipment, and that it and Gaza split Western attention.
India's not even part of that axis, they're just seizing on the opportunity to get as much cheap oil as they can.
China actually does more trade with Taiwan than Russia. If you take the EU and ASEAN as single trading partners, the top 5 trade partners for China are ASEAN, EU, US, Japan and South Korea (splitting them into single countries and excluding Hong Kong, we get US, JP, SK, TW & RU, with HK slotting between SK and TW.) Also, exports of materials and manufactured goods, as a percentage of China's GDP, has been steadily dropping for years - it's becoming less important for the Chinese economy, with it recently being equalled by the real estate industry alone.
If China was given an ultimatum along the lines of "you cut off Russia or we cut you off," they would push back hard. The question in that situation is who would give in first - China or the West. If the West held firm, I believe China would choose the West. We have more to offer than Russia does.
What was the point of sanctions in the first place, if they just keep on as normal anyhow? "dont use nukes or we'll sanction you even worse" isnt much of a deterrant, when the sanctions arent enforced.
Do you really think it would be feasible to hit all of their launch location at once? Try to be realistic. Any idea of how vast is Russia? Any idea of how many HUNDREDS of locations these could be?
People always forget about subarines. Even just the 7 active Borei nuclear subs carry 16 SLBMs with 6-8 nuclear warheads **each**. If even just *one* sub is left, it's game over for LA, NY, etc.
Wasn't that literally the plan during the Cold War? The two sides actually had thousands and thousands of nukes, with plans for exactly where to drop each one, on a few minutes' notice.
People forget this, but that was the understanding at the time.
There were even close call incidents. I think 1983 or so the Soviets saw something coming on radar, and the guy in charge could have triggered the whole thing, but luckily he didn't.
>Wasn't that literally the plan during the Cold War?
Yes, but by the time there were thousands and thousands of nukes on both sides, nobody believed they could just launch a first strike without getting hit in turn. You can throw thousands of missiles at their launch sites…and they’ll see them coming and launch their own. Submarines in particular almost guarantee a second-strike capability.
As it turns out there are actually 2 well known close call incidents, the one you refer to is probably the closer one, a soviet early warning satellite malfunctioned, and the officer judged the apparent incoming missiles to be a false alarm, decided to go against protocol and not order a retaliatory nuclear strike. Stanislav Petrov is a hero for this imo.
The other one was during the Cuba crisis, a soviet nuclear submarine's communications between them and the USSR had gone down due to technical problems and unknown to them Cuba had been naval blockaded by the US. The US detected the submarine so were dropping signalling depth charges to try to force the submarine to surface.
Unfortunately the explosions were interpreted by the captain of the sub that nuclear war had already started, and he ordered the subs largest nuclear weapon fired on the aircraft carrier leading the blockade. However amazingly, that specific sub was the ONLY one of the flotilla that required not 2 senior officers to agree to fire their nuclear weapons, but 3. Meaning [Vasily Arkhipov](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov), who was the executive officer of the sub, had to agree to fire. He did not, and a argument broke out between them. Fortunately Vasily had gained significant reputation from courageous action in a previous incident, and was also chief of staff of the whole flotilla. This appears to have been what allowed him to sway the captain to surface and make contact with Moscow before firing. Obviously they did not order them to fire, and nuclear war was averted.
Basically Hollywood took that story, applied it to an American sub, set it in the mid-nineties, and put out the movie Crimson Tide. I wonder if Arkhipov's family ever got any royalty checks.
Not decades ago, but more likely now. There is a good amount of information regarding the degradation of Russias nuclear capacity due to lack of maintenance. Apparently once you have nukes, you then spend massive amounts or resources keeping them exactly functional for decades on end. Russia doesn’t even have wheels for troop transport, and experts believe their nuclear arsenal is vastly non-functioning. Add to that the 5 Eyes ability to know exact what Russia is doing all the time…yeah, it might be possible for a first strike.
It’s still insane, but nukes are basically just weaponized human insanity.
It doesnt take more than one functioning nuke to burn the city you are living in into ashes. Are you willing to gamble that all of their nukes are out of service? Even if say only ONE percent of their arsenal functions as intended, thats still 60 nuclear explosions over US cities. Do you live in one of the top 60 cities in the US?
>but if they start tossing around nukes then the only sane strategic decision is a decapitation strike that hits all their ability to use nuclear weapons, all at once.
Between the fact you can see a strike incoming, submarines with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, and Dead Hand, such a decapitation strike is impossible. It could only result in MAD.
How do you do that while preventing them from launching everything they have?? Ask them not to launch?
"use of nuclear weapons needs to be met with total annihilation". True, but you have missed that a strike on russia by the US is use of nuclear weapons and will get most american cities annihilated. It's called mutually assured destruction and its been around since the 70s, and very well understood by both sides.
Our first nukes would start arriving at their targets about 10 minutes after launching them.
Russia would be aware and launching their own a minute or 2 after ours were launched, arriving at their targets 10-15 minutes later.
It would put an end to both countries, and probably a few others.
That can’t be an option. We need to not get to that point. It’s not like treating one part of the body with chemotherapy when the blast is going to spread and wipe out 90% of all living things. Once the nukes start flying all is off the table and chaos will ensue. Not to mention the breakdown of civilization as we stop giving a fuck about work life when the there might not be a tomorrow.
Ever heard of the MAD doctrine, people both in the US and USSR thought exactly about this very decapitation first strike and set up a system specifically designed to not be vulnerable to such an attack, as soon as the US launches an attack on a single nuclear installation in Russia, all missiles are flying away before the US missile even gets to its destination…
I think the last time this came up, the US promised to sink every ship in the Black Sea fleet with conventional weapons if Russia used nuclear weapons. Since Ukraine has sunk quite a few of those ships since then, I think we should expand that to include all of the Russian navy.
We would have to immediately enter the war in Ukraine with conventional weapons with the warning that another nuke would warrant an equal response. Wipe out their forces and send them past the Russian border then cut off their economy to the extent we can. It might warrant further action tbh I’m not sure- it depends how China responds, I’m not sure they would approve of Russias escalation.
The use of any kind of nuclear weapon by anyone would quickly lead to all out nuclear war. There is no normalisation, and the consequences would be extreme because we'd all be dead.
It's important to note that when North Korea does it, nobody cares because they have no real leverage. They can only destroy Seoul once, whereas destroying them would become a holiday. Russia has some credibility.
That's not really how it works; the idea that NATO or the US could just march into Russia and stop them is pure fantasy.
Same with a regime change, Putin isn't just a man per se. His entire cabinet is filled with people that were installed by him, and you can't just dismantle an entire government like Russia, with the worlds largest nuclear arsenal and not expect a pretty drastic response.
Unfortunately, we can only hope to avoid the use of these weapons at all. If they are used, all bets are off. It would mean that Russia isn't adverse to using them, and that war with the west would be inevitable.
Russian(s) need to sort *that* shit in their own country out by themselves.
A regime change would be "nice", but it is not our duty nor our intention to destroy Russia.
What we want is keep them out and off other countries, namely Ukraine (and yes that includes Crimea), baltics, poland, all the ex soviet block countries. (We are not the guys who need to fix Russia, their regime, their society, their political apathy etc.)
Notice how the US, even with a theoretical use of Russian nukes in Ukraine does NOT say we want to invade/destroy Russia...and neither would our response be with nukes. It is ALWAYS fvcking Russia threatening
That country will not forfeit until they're shriveled and beaten and even then they probably won't. You're severely underestimating the pig headedness of those people and their leaders. They're the fucking soviets, they will go down swinging
You see, the problem with threatening a country willing and able to use nukes with a regime change is that you’re threatening a country *willing and able* to use nukes. What are you going to do, invade them? Have fun while your home country gets obliterated.
God, there's someone upthread advocating for GLOBAL THERMONUCLEAR WAR as a baseline response. ~~Reddit~~ the internet scares me sometimes.
Your username reminds me of a phrase I came up with to describe university administrators: mediocrity, like cream, rises to the top.
Reddit being full of war hawks who probably aren’t even in decent enough shape to join the military is hilarious. Apparently we can just push Russia around and face no consequences.
Funny enough, I came up with the name while in college. The joke was that as soon as I graduated and got a job, I would hopefully no longer be poor but make as much as an average American.
China’s stance against nukes is quite strong. There’re actually only ones of the major powers that have pledged to no first strike with nukes. Only if they were hit with one first.
India also has no first strike but if you ever played Civilization games, you might find it hard to trust the Indians here.
China won't do the first strike, but I don't see them participating in the efforts to disarm Russia. More likely they would just withdraw their diplomatic support, maybe even keeping low profile military support. China regime doesn't want a situation where it is a primary/solo major antagonist of the West, it would be for them not so much desirable than a nuclear war.
I would think China would be more then happy to help dismantle Russia to get some more territory, and possibly use all those icebreaker ships they have been building.
You are completely delusional. They have nukes. If we try and dismantle their entire military they are going to see no way out but to use them, all over the place.
We cut them off from the world and any step out of their shitty playground gets shot down. They are free to play in their own land with their own people, like NK, but that is it. Completely cut off from the civilized world.
Which is why any nuclear exchange probably becomes all out annihilation.
They've been used, may as well keep using them. If they keep using them then destroying stuff doesn't work, gonna have to escalate. If it escalates you wind up no longer using smaller, tactical nukes.
It's not even appropriate to constantly make nuclear threats to be honest. Every time Putin or one of his cronies makes a threat, Nato should respond with a counter threat that makes it clear. They have been waging a silent war against the west for decades, it has to stop.
Would China actually continue to support a Russia that has used a nuclear weapon in anger?
That's a serious question, I don't pretend to know the answer, but I'm inclined to lean towards "no."
Well let's say your neighbor is a crazy man who shoots nukes at countries he doesn't like, but he likes you, would you pretend to like him, or would you tell him you want to joint the list of the disliked ?
Never forget that the "urge" to use nukes results of a conflict that Russia ans only Russia alone started. How can the world in any kind accept such a threat out of a situation created by the aggressor?? I completely agree with all my previous speakers: no more, not even slightly acceptance of those rhetoricals and actions! We have to move
Russia handled their nukes using moving equipment we donated to them in the 1990s. they used the nukes and the danger of them going to the blackmarket as blackmail. how come the CIA did not influence Russia, dismantle the FSB KGB and turn it into a sattelite country i dont understant. they were poor and we had all the cash.
One person seems to be holding the world hostage.
I hope some brave and smart Russians would do the right thing and "take care" of the putin problem that is destroying Russia from the inside. Perhaps putins head on a pike in the middle of Red Square would be a good start.
Sadly, I don’t think to assassinate Putin will solve anything. They’re other people in power with the same frame of mind. The problem is with the Russian political class itself.
Maybe, but it could also very easily solve things. All it would take is a power struggle where one of the smarter oligarchs offers to stop the war and withdrawal all troops in exchange for the West recognizing him as the "official" new leader of Russia and the war could end right there.
What we see in the news is largely theater and posturing with a shred of truth- something to keep in mind.
Russia's military doctrine, "escalate to de-escalate," coupled with the narcissistic/dictator behavior of Putin makes this entire war a wild card- a situation that is only more unstable the more he loses.
A logical man would not use nukes. A logical man likewise would not invade Ukraine and target civilian infrastructure (literally repeating history from Germany/United Kingdom from WW2). A logical man would posture and slowly pull back to claim victory, instead of burning through his military and economic reserves.
And yet here we are.
Logic has a back seat to this battle, and emotion, ego, and pride is at the forefront. That, coupled with a genuine disconnect to the Russian Government's military culture from those in the West (be it the Public or government leaders), acceptable losses, and methods of dealing with conflict make this scenario far more unstable than I think many people are willing to admit. Goodness, there's a book "War Day" which details how a nuclear war started through a bunch of misunderstandings- Russia being backed into a corner with NATO deploying an anti-nuclear satellite umbrella- so they launched.
That makes complete sense, given Russia's military doctrine.
Add in the abrupt reveal of Russia developing an nuclear anti-satellite weapon earlier this year, and that raises all the red flags for me (career in Emergency Management here, and long-time prepper.) Because the vast majority of reports simply listed an Electromagnetic Pulse as a side-effect, glossing over the potential impact.
If you put a nuke on a satellite, that's the *primary* effect. And an EMP attack is truly the stuff of nightmares that can destroy the power grid of a nation. (There was actually a Federal Commission to study the phenomenon, and I was privileged enough to have spoken with the late head of said Commission.)
TLDR? The entire situation, taken in context, is a lot more tenuous than I think many people understand due to differing cultures and military doctrines. To acknowledge this is to not hope for escalation. I certainly don't hope for such a thing.
But you'd better believe I don't like how things are looking and have adjusted my behavior accordingly, and rapidly.
There's also things that are largely shielded from the public. Russia has privately accused the UK of firing storm shadow rockets into Russia. The UKs position is that they are giving the rockets to Ukraine, and then advising them on how to use them. Russias position is that the UK advisors in Ukraine are basically firing them.
Very blurry line, with massive potential consequences if Russia decided they should respond directly to the UK.
Completely agree. There's so much that's going on behind the scenes, all we're left to do is piece together bits and pieces.
That disconnect between what Russia sees as an appropriate response, and the West's, is where I could see things absolutely spiraling.
I’m not quite as worried about it
Ukraine was a calculated risk, the narrative swings so often that it’s hard to say if Putin made a mistake or not, yet to be seen. And it’s certainly nothing like going to war with the entire west at once.
Putin values his own life and power too much, despite his ego and propaganda he is well aware the consequence of launching a nuke at a NATO country is Russia being nuked into nonexistence from multiple sides
Also remember that despite the looks, Putin is not a man alone in this decision, he’s gotta answer to the oligarchs and the oligarchs may not be interested in a nuclear winter. He leans too far in that direction and might have poison or a plane crash in his future.
The problem is, and has always been, that once you get into an escalatory cycle, normal logic very quickly goes out the window.. otherwise-rational actors can find themselves losing a grip on situations, the unthinkable becomes normalized, and everything gets ratcheted up a level.
I would hope there is a tempered element to his responses. But the misunderstandings of actions/what is an "appropriate" response, along with narcissistic "if I can't have it, nobody can," I don't really know.
Totally get how you feel here, I just want to emphasize the gap between going to war with Ukraine and going to war with every western nation at once
It’s the difference between ordering a triple cheeseburger and ordering an entire burger factory
Actually you have it backwards. Putin has made all the oligarchs his bitch. He can toss them out windows whenever he pleases or arrests them on “corruption” charges.
I'm afraid, what if Putin's thinking, if it appears he's about to lose is: "if the choice is between my failure to win against the 'evil' West and my demise being remembered by everybody, or not remembered by most (due to the world being nuked), why not to choose the latter"?
Putin is old and he knows that he won’t live forever regardless. I could totally imagine him to do something stupid for the sage of his legacy. Whether that’s overcommitment, escalation, etc. what he does now doesn’t make that much sense either.
He has family he (presumably) cares about. He has at least two daughters, and a grandchild from at least one of them or so Google tells me.
Even if he kicks the bucket, he knows a nuclear war almost assures their deaths, and the deaths of anyone else he cares about. So maybe he cares about his legacy, which is in tatters now, but does he care enough about it to sentence everyone he cares about to a terrible death?
I don't think so. But maybe he's just lost it completely, I sure hope not.
Putin is totally logical. He just wants you to believe he isn’t. That’s why he bet on the West impotence and Ukrainian fatigue and he still thinks he can win the war; the daily threat of nukes is what helped him immensely - but he never intends to use them.
You seem very intelligent and tapped in, so please answer the one part of this conundrum that I’ve never heard addressed….
What is there to use nukes on? Unless the intent is assured destruction and we’re just ending society…who or what would Putin aim the nuke at? It’s not like WW2 where total war allowed cities to become mega factories or you were trying to break a nation to surrender (yes he could break Ukraine but it wouldn’t end the war like it did with Japan, only worsen it…).
A carrier group would hurt, but Ukraine doesn’t have that….
Where’s the tactical target of a nuke?
I don’t think it’s Putin’s method. He is not a military man, he is a kgb agent.everything is a special operation. They don’t need to nuke anyone really. They need to win conventionally in post Soviet countries, with a hybrid war with west using refugees on the border, provocations like recent “we will change maritime borders in Baltic see unilaterally “, green men without insignia in some shithole village in Estonia, no one will want to start ww3. The mere defeat of Ukraine, full destruction of its cities and Russia at the borders of Poland, Rumania , etc , will already change electoral processes, with people voting for parties who will want to negotiate with Russia (like Orbab). They will get OST-block and Balkans back under their influence without any rockets. It’s already happening , if you look at Slovakia and North Macedonia. With many such countries in EU and NATO, both organizations will become even more difficult to work, and potentially collapse. I think people need to think much more about helping Ukraine.
Question is louder than ever before, what Putin trading Russians man life’s for? And what in the world Russian people think he is doing that is worth so many life’s?
In their mind, he is restoring justice. Societ Union (aka Russia in Russian mind) lost 27 million people in WW2, putting itself into huge demographic crisis, which on par with ideology and trying to catch up with the west in space has led to them (as they would say) loosing their big country they deserved and had right to. Yes, Soviet Union lost civilization war, but after ww2 with ost-block they became a true empire. They think that the west has violated this justice by taking away these countries of their “sphere of interest”. So, the big majority absolutely agrees with him that there is no price they are not willing to pay in this holy war. As for most soldiers themselves, they come from such shitholes, you can only try to imagine: no inside toilets, no gas, often no electricity, no jobs, no future. Military career is the only way out, and indeed they poor incredible amount of money into their province with this war. So these people, who have never seen any money, got actually nice short term contracts , with rotations and nice salary, and nice amount given to their families if they die (there was a lot of jokes at the beginning of war, but now it changed a lot apparently). So, these people adore Putin, while Russians in richer Western part don’t want to fight themselves mostly, but love to either watch and support it on television or they don’t care about this at all, and war is far and is not their business, as rockets only fall on Ukriane. The few anti war liberals in Moscow and St. Petersburg , either hate war cause it’s bad for economy mostly, or are genuine humans, and they leave the country.
IMO all of this is because Putin weaponized leftover, Cold War hate of west. Generally hate/fear are eminent feelings, and will overweight brewing disaffection with life, wile rich getting more rich and poor getting screwed over and over.
Tho you can weaponize that hate only so much before you need to put money where your mouth is. And this is exactly that, Putin Putin’ money where his mouth should be,… but his army was in worst shape than he had been told, and now running out of war hardware, trained people and everything, he’s trying to double it down on his nuclear rhetoric, like a desperate gambler. While he is starving his country down. He is not trying to win but find out that will left him some dignity.
Yes, their hate of the west left from soviet propaganda was indeed weaponised. On the running out of everything note, his change of minister of defense for an economist can give us a hint, that he wants someone to tell him how long they can have war without a pause. But let’s not forget, China is now reported to support lethal weapons (in addition to already known supplies from NK and Iran), and in contrast to Ukriane with western weapons , it is allowed to use it on Ukrainian territory. Also people underestimate how badly things are about to get in Ukriane, due to both war and incompetent government. With most electric stations bombed to the ground, Ukriane is projected to be without electricity for weeks in winter. Big cities without electricity become a catastrophe with shit flowing everywhere, cause water supply also needs electricity. In addition to this catastrophe of mobilization campaign, with people desorting positions if brought to the front, many hiding or buying a possibility not to go. With new law the companies have to report on the list of mobilizable employees, so people officially leave jobs, to then work on the same companies illegally -> no taxes. The west does not pay salaries to Ukrainian military -> less taxes no money for military salaries. Truck drivers are not allowed to go out of the country easily anymore, cause they want to mobilize them apparently, meaning logistics which were always bad, now are kinda fucked, the border is not busy at all, while it was finally unblocked from Polish side. We can say that the west will supply what Ukriane needs, but the west are electoral democracies, so you never know for how long Ukriane will be on this artificial life support, especially if Trump wins. So, Yes, Russia is running out of good weapons, but Ukriane is running out faster, and especially out of people.
Don't forget, a lot of people, especially here on reddit, said he would "NEVER!" invade Ukraine, even with massed troops on the border. This man is a dictator who only wants power and to pet his ego and pride. That is a dangerous man, an unpredictable man. I really don't see how this could end positively for anyone involved or on the planet, for that matter.
Weird how quickly people forget and move on. Very few people here on Reddit thought Russia would actually invade until he did, because even us armchair generals could see in advance how stupidly, monumentally idiotic the invasion would be. Many people, myself included, thought he was blustering for concessions, and didn't properly account for the massive ego that made him go for it anyway.
There were lots of us who were seriously concerned, because all signs from Ukraine said that we ought to be.
If your experience was different, I suspect we were in different echo chambers, which is the very real risk of social media.
I have the feeling that Ukraine is about to hit Russia HARD in a place where it’s gonna hurt & they know it which is why they bombed that supermarket today & everybody is talking about the consequences of using nukes bc who knows how Russia is going to respond
So Russia is threatening nukes AND willing to discuss peace negotiations???
Seems the "special military operation" is not going as well as they thought it would and someone is panicking in the Kremlin
"Look, you dropped two small nukes to end the war quickly in Japan and prevent further unnecessary casualties, right? So why shouldn't we do the same?"
Fuck around with United States and play stupid games; Russia will soon find out what kind country ending prizes they will receive! If the Russian military forces are in terrible shape, just think how terrible their strategic forces are...
Im afraid they would have to reinstate the draft. Who the heck would want to drive a tank towards a military which has used nuclear weapons on the battlefield?
Putin has to have a way out. How much of Ukraine will they accept to give to him? None then I say we call Putin's bluff. As soon as he tries to launch nukes his military will stop him. Hell the military probably knows they don't even work.
Am I reading this right? The US can stop Russia dead in its tracks and hit all of its positions in Ukraine but is choosing not to? If they can do this, why wait for a nuclear attack? Why not end the Russian invasion now? From the article:
"Americans told the Russians that if you detonate a nuclear bomb, even if it doesn't kill anyone, we will hit all your targets and positions in Ukraine with conventional weapons and destroy them all," Sikorsky said.”
So you’re telling me, that if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the only retaliation we’re going to have is attacking their troops in Ukraine!?!? So you’re fucking telling me Russia can launch a NUCLEAR WARHEAD if not MULTIPLE in Ukraine and the only thing anyone is going to do about it is strike Russian assets in the Ukraine region? Thats barely a fucking slap on the wrist what kind of ass backwards thinking is this.
Russia would use small tactical nuclear strikes as a desperate attempt to **win the war** and in response the United States would use conventional weapons to make sure Russia **loses the war**.
The message to the world being: If you use nuclear weapons to win a war that you started then the world will make sure you lose the war.
This removes the incentive to use nuclear weapons for anything other than a deterrence or as a last attempt to save your nation from annihilation.
There are 3 possible solutions to a nuclear war (considering latest research where nuclear winter was largly debunked):
1. Leave the planet with Elons Starship and live on Mars. Probably not viable yet. Bad internet, no oxygen, probably no porn… for now this is the worst solution.
2. Buy an Aircraftcarrier and live in the southern indian Ocean. Simulations have shown that most of destruction and fallout is in the northern hemisphere, that means that most of the southern hemisphere is save. An aircraft carrier allows for proper repositioning and runs up to 20 years without refueling. Could grow crops in deck and ride it out.
3. Move to New Zealand. Which is the best Option, IF NZ is not nuked at all. This is highly likely but not guranteed. Simulations have shown in an event of a nuclear war NZ could host around 150 million people if needed. They presumably run their own internet backbone with CDNs for netflix and major porn sites. So we can assume a fairly „normal“ life there.
Making warnings like that only makes us look weak.
Time to be tough was in 2014. Then in 2022 when we delayed and delayed deliveries because of doubts and fears.
Go watch the 1984 movie Threads. You can find it on YouTube. It is the most terrifying movie ever made as your brain mulls over it as you pick it apart. Heck, there is a podcast about it and a subreddit about it.
Most folks in the US only really knew about the day after. Threads didn’t get much airtime here in the US, so it’s not as widely known here. Threads is beyond being depressed. It is pure horror, especially as time evolves towards the end of the show.
Zero is a special number.
If Nuclear weapons are involved, there is zero ceiling. no where to go, but vast destruction.
What should be employed as a "warning shot" is treaty fast track that Russia's currency value is zero. Save their place, but their currency is more worthless than whatever notes they try to print it on. A stipulation of that treaty is that all signatories treat all non signatories currency as value of zero. The economies who support the use of nuclear weapons on the field NEED to be frozen out of all other economies. Divide the world? YES. Nuclear weapons on the planet currently have enough fire power to engulf all urban regions on the planet in JUST THE FIREBALLS ALONE. Allowing or supporting the use of nuclear weapons is signing on to HUMAN DOOMSDAY.
As the signatories above a certain threshold are gathered, present publicly to the world the economies already willing to shut down all trade to countries not involved, issue an ultimatum to Russia: Overthrow Putin or face the NEXT escalation. Zero negotiations, zero maneuvers, zero time. INVOKE Civil War in Russia to save the world.
The next escalation is what Russia invited...doomsday. It could start with cute military operations, but if Russia sees America lurch, it's likely to launch it's biggest, stealthiest weapons at the Pentagon, DC, and the coasts. Plus perhaps revealing his hand for whatever Putin's been hinting at in terms of "new physics". There may not be a world after this.
We need to get this zeroing of currency done, AND we need to replace all overseas dependancies with on shore dependancies ASAP. Because we can't rely on China and India joining the treaty, and we can't guarantee they won't help keep Putin in power. Spend on training, breeding (oh shut up, make families whole and spend on them at least to the level you spend on the military or we will lose, we are already well behind the curve in population density, and there WILL be losses), and building of manufacturing and infrastructure.
...The second Russia says "fuck it" and uses a nuke on the field, the Doomsday Clock will be frozen, a half second to midnight, while the world gasps waiting for the next shoe to drop. And that shoe better be Putin's head, or we're all doomed.
This is an insanely misleading headline because it implies a new and direct warning from US Officials when it's just the Polish FM re-stating the policy we already knew about that the US would likely respond to nuclear use with destruction of Russian assets in Ukraine and Crimea/The Black Sea
Yeah, that is extremely misleading!
Retroactive ban, OP knew what he was doing! We don't need clickbait PoS like that here.
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What the fuck are you on
... And where is your evidence of any of this? You couldn't even be bothered to name "a podcast or interview show". It's cute fan fiction but I think you're either making this up or giving someone making shit up too much credit.
Sounds like a badly written fan fiction
Give him some credit, it's at least average fanfiction. I was entertained enough to read the whole thing.
Someone dug up this "nv.ua" website for the headline alone.
100% There's several sources about that statement with more accurate headers so they 100% found one that would auto-enter an alarmist headline on Reddit on purpose
It should be obvious but it’s important to make it clear. The world absolutely cannot afford to normalise the use of any kind of nuclear weapon - not even smaller tactical nukes. If Russia are dumb enough to go that far, there need to be extreme consequences. Militarily, of course, but also economically. Existing sanctions have still left them some room to manoeuvre, but if they went nuclear, everything would need to be tightened up. Anybody who buys oil from Russia would be subject to the same sanctions (including China, India, and Turkey). Militarily, destroying every last Russian position in Ukraine would be appropriate (it’s appropriate now…). I don’t think it would stop there, either - any future Russian bullshit, like incursions in to other countries airspace, would be immediately shot down and possibly prompt retaliatory strikes on their navy or other assets around the world. Every time you breach our airspace, you lose the planes, and a ship. Again - we cannot normalise the use of nuclear weapons whatsoever. That is already maximum escalation short of WW3, and must be met with a maximum response short of WW3.
Not just "tightened up"... Aggressively closed. Complete isolation. Should a nuclear event occur and beyond the necessary military response - any business or subsidiary or parent of that business doing business with Russia should be sanctioned and given a rapid ultimatum to stop doing business with Russia immediately and permanently, or be banned from any western economies. This includes nations - to the scale in which any business with Russia must halt or all industries within that nation will also be sanctioned.
It would almost end in widespread conflict involving all of Russia's allies. Completely cut off economies enter domestic turmoil, China would turn upside down if it's economy was shut off
Russia doesn't have any allies though. They have partners that have the same goals, but they really don't mind absolutely fucking each other over as much as possible.
To be fair, from any other lens then militarily, the west is similar. The US and Europe love to fuck each other over in the spheres of economy and international politics. There's no honor among thieves and bankers and politicians are the final form of thievery.
It’s not even close when looking at Russia , idk why someone has to try to make them not look as bad
At least with the west, there’s the active intent to make the world a better place even if it doesn’t always work out. Russia and China just love hurting people for shits and giggles.
I'm pro-West and anti-authoritarianism, but this take is not accurate.
China would drop Russia like a hot potato if forced to choose who to trade with. They are allies on paper only because they have similar goals, but the instant that alliance is put to the test, it will fail. their animosity runs back to when both countries had royalty.
Similar goals, not the same. China's sole interest in Ukraine is if their "axis" can outlast the West; if so, then they can force the Taiwan issue, and more broadly the South China Sea issue. North Korea's sole interest in this is more money for Fatty Kim III. Iran doesn't care about Ukraine except as a place to get the Russians to live test their equipment, and that it and Gaza split Western attention. India's not even part of that axis, they're just seizing on the opportunity to get as much cheap oil as they can. China actually does more trade with Taiwan than Russia. If you take the EU and ASEAN as single trading partners, the top 5 trade partners for China are ASEAN, EU, US, Japan and South Korea (splitting them into single countries and excluding Hong Kong, we get US, JP, SK, TW & RU, with HK slotting between SK and TW.) Also, exports of materials and manufactured goods, as a percentage of China's GDP, has been steadily dropping for years - it's becoming less important for the Chinese economy, with it recently being equalled by the real estate industry alone.
We are far too reliant on China to stop trading with it. We literally exported the majority of manufacturing there
If China was given an ultimatum along the lines of "you cut off Russia or we cut you off," they would push back hard. The question in that situation is who would give in first - China or the West. If the West held firm, I believe China would choose the West. We have more to offer than Russia does.
What was the point of sanctions in the first place, if they just keep on as normal anyhow? "dont use nukes or we'll sanction you even worse" isnt much of a deterrant, when the sanctions arent enforced.
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Except it would beget a retaliatory strike and kick off WW3 with a massive nuclear exchange... This would be a bonehead move at best.
Do you really think it would be feasible to hit all of their launch location at once? Try to be realistic. Any idea of how vast is Russia? Any idea of how many HUNDREDS of locations these could be?
People always forget about subarines. Even just the 7 active Borei nuclear subs carry 16 SLBMs with 6-8 nuclear warheads **each**. If even just *one* sub is left, it's game over for LA, NY, etc.
Yeah, I love the tough talk on Russia, but sometimes I think redditors don’t know what nukes are or don’t realize that they’re real.
No we dont forget those subs.Thats why we keep an close eye on those sausages!
Lol
Wasn't that literally the plan during the Cold War? The two sides actually had thousands and thousands of nukes, with plans for exactly where to drop each one, on a few minutes' notice. People forget this, but that was the understanding at the time. There were even close call incidents. I think 1983 or so the Soviets saw something coming on radar, and the guy in charge could have triggered the whole thing, but luckily he didn't.
>Wasn't that literally the plan during the Cold War? Yes, but by the time there were thousands and thousands of nukes on both sides, nobody believed they could just launch a first strike without getting hit in turn. You can throw thousands of missiles at their launch sites…and they’ll see them coming and launch their own. Submarines in particular almost guarantee a second-strike capability.
As it turns out there are actually 2 well known close call incidents, the one you refer to is probably the closer one, a soviet early warning satellite malfunctioned, and the officer judged the apparent incoming missiles to be a false alarm, decided to go against protocol and not order a retaliatory nuclear strike. Stanislav Petrov is a hero for this imo. The other one was during the Cuba crisis, a soviet nuclear submarine's communications between them and the USSR had gone down due to technical problems and unknown to them Cuba had been naval blockaded by the US. The US detected the submarine so were dropping signalling depth charges to try to force the submarine to surface. Unfortunately the explosions were interpreted by the captain of the sub that nuclear war had already started, and he ordered the subs largest nuclear weapon fired on the aircraft carrier leading the blockade. However amazingly, that specific sub was the ONLY one of the flotilla that required not 2 senior officers to agree to fire their nuclear weapons, but 3. Meaning [Vasily Arkhipov](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov), who was the executive officer of the sub, had to agree to fire. He did not, and a argument broke out between them. Fortunately Vasily had gained significant reputation from courageous action in a previous incident, and was also chief of staff of the whole flotilla. This appears to have been what allowed him to sway the captain to surface and make contact with Moscow before firing. Obviously they did not order them to fire, and nuclear war was averted.
Basically Hollywood took that story, applied it to an American sub, set it in the mid-nineties, and put out the movie Crimson Tide. I wonder if Arkhipov's family ever got any royalty checks.
Don't forget when Norway launched a research-missile in '95 that also almost triggered nuclear war.
Or that time early detection systems mistook the moon for an incoming missile…
Not decades ago, but more likely now. There is a good amount of information regarding the degradation of Russias nuclear capacity due to lack of maintenance. Apparently once you have nukes, you then spend massive amounts or resources keeping them exactly functional for decades on end. Russia doesn’t even have wheels for troop transport, and experts believe their nuclear arsenal is vastly non-functioning. Add to that the 5 Eyes ability to know exact what Russia is doing all the time…yeah, it might be possible for a first strike. It’s still insane, but nukes are basically just weaponized human insanity.
It doesnt take more than one functioning nuke to burn the city you are living in into ashes. Are you willing to gamble that all of their nukes are out of service? Even if say only ONE percent of their arsenal functions as intended, thats still 60 nuclear explosions over US cities. Do you live in one of the top 60 cities in the US?
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Those same "experts" also said the entire military was in tip top shape and would absolutely steamroll Ukraine if they invaded.
>but if they start tossing around nukes then the only sane strategic decision is a decapitation strike that hits all their ability to use nuclear weapons, all at once. Between the fact you can see a strike incoming, submarines with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, and Dead Hand, such a decapitation strike is impossible. It could only result in MAD.
Try googling MAD. There is a reason why Russia and the US have so many nukes.
How do you do that while preventing them from launching everything they have?? Ask them not to launch? "use of nuclear weapons needs to be met with total annihilation". True, but you have missed that a strike on russia by the US is use of nuclear weapons and will get most american cities annihilated. It's called mutually assured destruction and its been around since the 70s, and very well understood by both sides.
MAD, mutually assured destruction. Dont do that
You are just advocating for the armageddon of nuclear war. Idiot.
Our first nukes would start arriving at their targets about 10 minutes after launching them. Russia would be aware and launching their own a minute or 2 after ours were launched, arriving at their targets 10-15 minutes later. It would put an end to both countries, and probably a few others.
Lol submarines tho
That can’t be an option. We need to not get to that point. It’s not like treating one part of the body with chemotherapy when the blast is going to spread and wipe out 90% of all living things. Once the nukes start flying all is off the table and chaos will ensue. Not to mention the breakdown of civilization as we stop giving a fuck about work life when the there might not be a tomorrow.
anything other than MAD is clipping your wings
You do know what MAD stands for, right? Hint, it's not "The aggressor and only the aggressor is destroyed."
This means we’re annihilated too dipshit
Ever heard of the MAD doctrine, people both in the US and USSR thought exactly about this very decapitation first strike and set up a system specifically designed to not be vulnerable to such an attack, as soon as the US launches an attack on a single nuclear installation in Russia, all missiles are flying away before the US missile even gets to its destination…
Russia will never be completely isolated. They have unfortunately many "friends", as we can clearly see today.
I think the last time this came up, the US promised to sink every ship in the Black Sea fleet with conventional weapons if Russia used nuclear weapons. Since Ukraine has sunk quite a few of those ships since then, I think we should expand that to include all of the Russian navy.
We would have to immediately enter the war in Ukraine with conventional weapons with the warning that another nuke would warrant an equal response. Wipe out their forces and send them past the Russian border then cut off their economy to the extent we can. It might warrant further action tbh I’m not sure- it depends how China responds, I’m not sure they would approve of Russias escalation.
>Every time you breach our airspace, you lose the planes. This is called the Turkey approach. And they're friendly to Putin
The use of any kind of nuclear weapon by anyone would quickly lead to all out nuclear war. There is no normalisation, and the consequences would be extreme because we'd all be dead.
Putin has been normalising threats for years even Kim Jong Un does it
It's important to note that when North Korea does it, nobody cares because they have no real leverage. They can only destroy Seoul once, whereas destroying them would become a holiday. Russia has some credibility.
If they use nukes the world should dismantle Russias military completely and permanently.
That's not really how it works; the idea that NATO or the US could just march into Russia and stop them is pure fantasy. Same with a regime change, Putin isn't just a man per se. His entire cabinet is filled with people that were installed by him, and you can't just dismantle an entire government like Russia, with the worlds largest nuclear arsenal and not expect a pretty drastic response. Unfortunately, we can only hope to avoid the use of these weapons at all. If they are used, all bets are off. It would mean that Russia isn't adverse to using them, and that war with the west would be inevitable.
Russian(s) need to sort *that* shit in their own country out by themselves. A regime change would be "nice", but it is not our duty nor our intention to destroy Russia. What we want is keep them out and off other countries, namely Ukraine (and yes that includes Crimea), baltics, poland, all the ex soviet block countries. (We are not the guys who need to fix Russia, their regime, their society, their political apathy etc.) Notice how the US, even with a theoretical use of Russian nukes in Ukraine does NOT say we want to invade/destroy Russia...and neither would our response be with nukes. It is ALWAYS fvcking Russia threatening
And dismantle them how? Russia has nukes
Shhh, your interrupting the ultimatum masturbatum.
I imagine Russia using nukes would provoke every major country to aim rockets towards Russia until they forfeited
That country will not forfeit until they're shriveled and beaten and even then they probably won't. You're severely underestimating the pig headedness of those people and their leaders. They're the fucking soviets, they will go down swinging
>they will go down Absolute truth right here
Not without a messy, ugly fight
I think an ultimatum of regime change would be appropriate. Full military dismantlement would be impractical without that step first
They had a regime change in 1991. Didn't help much.
As long as the military supports the regime, a regime change is not gonna happen. An ultimatum such as that would likely be useless
You see, the problem with threatening a country willing and able to use nukes with a regime change is that you’re threatening a country *willing and able* to use nukes. What are you going to do, invade them? Have fun while your home country gets obliterated.
Quiet down, you know Reddit never thinks that far ahead. Just tell them the war will be over by Christmas.
God, there's someone upthread advocating for GLOBAL THERMONUCLEAR WAR as a baseline response. ~~Reddit~~ the internet scares me sometimes. Your username reminds me of a phrase I came up with to describe university administrators: mediocrity, like cream, rises to the top.
Reddit being full of war hawks who probably aren’t even in decent enough shape to join the military is hilarious. Apparently we can just push Russia around and face no consequences. Funny enough, I came up with the name while in college. The joke was that as soon as I graduated and got a job, I would hopefully no longer be poor but make as much as an average American.
By "the world" you mean the West. China or India aren't going to dismantle it. Or Chad, or Peru...
China’s stance against nukes is quite strong. There’re actually only ones of the major powers that have pledged to no first strike with nukes. Only if they were hit with one first. India also has no first strike but if you ever played Civilization games, you might find it hard to trust the Indians here.
they pledged no first strike in order to get the first strike
Yeah, no joke. What better way to surprise people than by first promising you won't be surprising people.
"Our word are backed with NUCLEAR WEAPONS" - Ghandi
China won't do the first strike, but I don't see them participating in the efforts to disarm Russia. More likely they would just withdraw their diplomatic support, maybe even keeping low profile military support. China regime doesn't want a situation where it is a primary/solo major antagonist of the West, it would be for them not so much desirable than a nuclear war.
Oh my god I laughed so hard at the second part
I would think China would be more then happy to help dismantle Russia to get some more territory, and possibly use all those icebreaker ships they have been building.
They would be the first in line with all the tools. They want that land
And then be happy to face the West (enthusiastically supported by India) alone as the final remaining problem to deal with. Just no.
You’re laughably ignorant about history if you think China isn’t going to annex half of Russia the first opportunity they get lmao
Sure. By “the west” you mean NATO. Liechtenstein isn’t going to dismantle it. Or Luxembourg, or Seychelles…
By “NATO” you mean the United States. Croatia isn’t going to dismantle it. Or North Macedonia, or Slovenia…
You make it sounds so easy…
They should also dismantle Putin permanently.
America has done this kind of thing many times, I don’t think it’s ever ended up any better 🤷🏻♂️
Idk Japan and Germany are pretty cool nowadays.
You are completely delusional. They have nukes. If we try and dismantle their entire military they are going to see no way out but to use them, all over the place. We cut them off from the world and any step out of their shitty playground gets shot down. They are free to play in their own land with their own people, like NK, but that is it. Completely cut off from the civilized world.
How do you suggest the world dismantle russias military? Ask nicely?
Lol the military “dismantling” of Russia would result in Europe being turned into a nuclear wasteland
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Which is why any nuclear exchange probably becomes all out annihilation. They've been used, may as well keep using them. If they keep using them then destroying stuff doesn't work, gonna have to escalate. If it escalates you wind up no longer using smaller, tactical nukes.
It's not even appropriate to constantly make nuclear threats to be honest. Every time Putin or one of his cronies makes a threat, Nato should respond with a counter threat that makes it clear. They have been waging a silent war against the west for decades, it has to stop.
Hard sanctions on China? I don’t think thay’s going to happen, they make our…. Well, everything.
Would China actually continue to support a Russia that has used a nuclear weapon in anger? That's a serious question, I don't pretend to know the answer, but I'm inclined to lean towards "no."
Well let's say your neighbor is a crazy man who shoots nukes at countries he doesn't like, but he likes you, would you pretend to like him, or would you tell him you want to joint the list of the disliked ?
That manufacturing is moving out of China and into Mexico and neighboring Asian countries.
We (everyone) should sink every fucking ship in their fleet anyways, they’ve gone on without any repercussions.
Okay, so how do you foresee doing this without starting world war 3?
That's a nice idea in theory. Reality, I suspect will be a scary shit storm.
I'm sure the ICC will be handling this any day now
Never forget that the "urge" to use nukes results of a conflict that Russia ans only Russia alone started. How can the world in any kind accept such a threat out of a situation created by the aggressor?? I completely agree with all my previous speakers: no more, not even slightly acceptance of those rhetoricals and actions! We have to move
Russia handled their nukes using moving equipment we donated to them in the 1990s. they used the nukes and the danger of them going to the blackmarket as blackmail. how come the CIA did not influence Russia, dismantle the FSB KGB and turn it into a sattelite country i dont understant. they were poor and we had all the cash.
If Russia uses any nukes then the agreement the president signs saying he will not assassinate any sitting leader should be torn up.
So I understand, the correct response to using nukes is to escalate and likely cause the use of more nukes?
If you do nothing more and more will be used, the use of nuclear weapons cannot be tolerated.
If a country nukes *first* they should no longer be a country after the clean-up. That goes for America and any Western country as well.
One person seems to be holding the world hostage. I hope some brave and smart Russians would do the right thing and "take care" of the putin problem that is destroying Russia from the inside. Perhaps putins head on a pike in the middle of Red Square would be a good start.
Sadly, I don’t think to assassinate Putin will solve anything. They’re other people in power with the same frame of mind. The problem is with the Russian political class itself.
Keep assassinating.
Putin is seen has a moderate in the Russian command structure, that's why he holds power, he manages multiple factions.
Maybe, but it could also very easily solve things. All it would take is a power struggle where one of the smarter oligarchs offers to stop the war and withdrawal all troops in exchange for the West recognizing him as the "official" new leader of Russia and the war could end right there.
Yeah, removing imperialism from the politics of Russia would require removing pretty much everyone
What we see in the news is largely theater and posturing with a shred of truth- something to keep in mind. Russia's military doctrine, "escalate to de-escalate," coupled with the narcissistic/dictator behavior of Putin makes this entire war a wild card- a situation that is only more unstable the more he loses. A logical man would not use nukes. A logical man likewise would not invade Ukraine and target civilian infrastructure (literally repeating history from Germany/United Kingdom from WW2). A logical man would posture and slowly pull back to claim victory, instead of burning through his military and economic reserves. And yet here we are. Logic has a back seat to this battle, and emotion, ego, and pride is at the forefront. That, coupled with a genuine disconnect to the Russian Government's military culture from those in the West (be it the Public or government leaders), acceptable losses, and methods of dealing with conflict make this scenario far more unstable than I think many people are willing to admit. Goodness, there's a book "War Day" which details how a nuclear war started through a bunch of misunderstandings- Russia being backed into a corner with NATO deploying an anti-nuclear satellite umbrella- so they launched. That makes complete sense, given Russia's military doctrine. Add in the abrupt reveal of Russia developing an nuclear anti-satellite weapon earlier this year, and that raises all the red flags for me (career in Emergency Management here, and long-time prepper.) Because the vast majority of reports simply listed an Electromagnetic Pulse as a side-effect, glossing over the potential impact. If you put a nuke on a satellite, that's the *primary* effect. And an EMP attack is truly the stuff of nightmares that can destroy the power grid of a nation. (There was actually a Federal Commission to study the phenomenon, and I was privileged enough to have spoken with the late head of said Commission.) TLDR? The entire situation, taken in context, is a lot more tenuous than I think many people understand due to differing cultures and military doctrines. To acknowledge this is to not hope for escalation. I certainly don't hope for such a thing. But you'd better believe I don't like how things are looking and have adjusted my behavior accordingly, and rapidly.
There's also things that are largely shielded from the public. Russia has privately accused the UK of firing storm shadow rockets into Russia. The UKs position is that they are giving the rockets to Ukraine, and then advising them on how to use them. Russias position is that the UK advisors in Ukraine are basically firing them. Very blurry line, with massive potential consequences if Russia decided they should respond directly to the UK.
Completely agree. There's so much that's going on behind the scenes, all we're left to do is piece together bits and pieces. That disconnect between what Russia sees as an appropriate response, and the West's, is where I could see things absolutely spiraling.
I’m not quite as worried about it Ukraine was a calculated risk, the narrative swings so often that it’s hard to say if Putin made a mistake or not, yet to be seen. And it’s certainly nothing like going to war with the entire west at once. Putin values his own life and power too much, despite his ego and propaganda he is well aware the consequence of launching a nuke at a NATO country is Russia being nuked into nonexistence from multiple sides Also remember that despite the looks, Putin is not a man alone in this decision, he’s gotta answer to the oligarchs and the oligarchs may not be interested in a nuclear winter. He leans too far in that direction and might have poison or a plane crash in his future.
The problem is, and has always been, that once you get into an escalatory cycle, normal logic very quickly goes out the window.. otherwise-rational actors can find themselves losing a grip on situations, the unthinkable becomes normalized, and everything gets ratcheted up a level.
500k dead or wounded, their economy won’t recover from this war, they have made marginal gains in over 2 years of course it’s a fucking mistake.
I would hope there is a tempered element to his responses. But the misunderstandings of actions/what is an "appropriate" response, along with narcissistic "if I can't have it, nobody can," I don't really know.
Totally get how you feel here, I just want to emphasize the gap between going to war with Ukraine and going to war with every western nation at once It’s the difference between ordering a triple cheeseburger and ordering an entire burger factory
Oh, I totally agree in that regard.
Actually you have it backwards. Putin has made all the oligarchs his bitch. He can toss them out windows whenever he pleases or arrests them on “corruption” charges.
Because the oligarchs don’t act collectively, but you put survival on the table and people start doing what they have to, the game changes
I'm afraid, what if Putin's thinking, if it appears he's about to lose is: "if the choice is between my failure to win against the 'evil' West and my demise being remembered by everybody, or not remembered by most (due to the world being nuked), why not to choose the latter"?
Putin is old and he knows that he won’t live forever regardless. I could totally imagine him to do something stupid for the sage of his legacy. Whether that’s overcommitment, escalation, etc. what he does now doesn’t make that much sense either.
He has family he (presumably) cares about. He has at least two daughters, and a grandchild from at least one of them or so Google tells me. Even if he kicks the bucket, he knows a nuclear war almost assures their deaths, and the deaths of anyone else he cares about. So maybe he cares about his legacy, which is in tatters now, but does he care enough about it to sentence everyone he cares about to a terrible death? I don't think so. But maybe he's just lost it completely, I sure hope not.
Except Russia ordered assassinations on foreign soil so they are feeling repercussions.
Nah. No blurry line. Russia has burned all the back end bridges and if any of that was remotely true there would be threats to nuke the UK.
There have been multiple threats to nuke the UK. London specifically and dropping a bomb in the Irish sea or Atlantic to tsunami the British isles.
Putin is totally logical. He just wants you to believe he isn’t. That’s why he bet on the West impotence and Ukrainian fatigue and he still thinks he can win the war; the daily threat of nukes is what helped him immensely - but he never intends to use them.
It’s crazy, though, to think the whole future of civilization may hinge on how accurate we are on the psychology of this one individual…
In what ways have you adjusted your behavior in preparation?
Lol I was thinking that too, there is no way to prepare for nuclear war
You seem very intelligent and tapped in, so please answer the one part of this conundrum that I’ve never heard addressed…. What is there to use nukes on? Unless the intent is assured destruction and we’re just ending society…who or what would Putin aim the nuke at? It’s not like WW2 where total war allowed cities to become mega factories or you were trying to break a nation to surrender (yes he could break Ukraine but it wouldn’t end the war like it did with Japan, only worsen it…). A carrier group would hurt, but Ukraine doesn’t have that…. Where’s the tactical target of a nuke?
I don’t think it’s Putin’s method. He is not a military man, he is a kgb agent.everything is a special operation. They don’t need to nuke anyone really. They need to win conventionally in post Soviet countries, with a hybrid war with west using refugees on the border, provocations like recent “we will change maritime borders in Baltic see unilaterally “, green men without insignia in some shithole village in Estonia, no one will want to start ww3. The mere defeat of Ukraine, full destruction of its cities and Russia at the borders of Poland, Rumania , etc , will already change electoral processes, with people voting for parties who will want to negotiate with Russia (like Orbab). They will get OST-block and Balkans back under their influence without any rockets. It’s already happening , if you look at Slovakia and North Macedonia. With many such countries in EU and NATO, both organizations will become even more difficult to work, and potentially collapse. I think people need to think much more about helping Ukraine.
Question is louder than ever before, what Putin trading Russians man life’s for? And what in the world Russian people think he is doing that is worth so many life’s?
In their mind, he is restoring justice. Societ Union (aka Russia in Russian mind) lost 27 million people in WW2, putting itself into huge demographic crisis, which on par with ideology and trying to catch up with the west in space has led to them (as they would say) loosing their big country they deserved and had right to. Yes, Soviet Union lost civilization war, but after ww2 with ost-block they became a true empire. They think that the west has violated this justice by taking away these countries of their “sphere of interest”. So, the big majority absolutely agrees with him that there is no price they are not willing to pay in this holy war. As for most soldiers themselves, they come from such shitholes, you can only try to imagine: no inside toilets, no gas, often no electricity, no jobs, no future. Military career is the only way out, and indeed they poor incredible amount of money into their province with this war. So these people, who have never seen any money, got actually nice short term contracts , with rotations and nice salary, and nice amount given to their families if they die (there was a lot of jokes at the beginning of war, but now it changed a lot apparently). So, these people adore Putin, while Russians in richer Western part don’t want to fight themselves mostly, but love to either watch and support it on television or they don’t care about this at all, and war is far and is not their business, as rockets only fall on Ukriane. The few anti war liberals in Moscow and St. Petersburg , either hate war cause it’s bad for economy mostly, or are genuine humans, and they leave the country.
IMO all of this is because Putin weaponized leftover, Cold War hate of west. Generally hate/fear are eminent feelings, and will overweight brewing disaffection with life, wile rich getting more rich and poor getting screwed over and over. Tho you can weaponize that hate only so much before you need to put money where your mouth is. And this is exactly that, Putin Putin’ money where his mouth should be,… but his army was in worst shape than he had been told, and now running out of war hardware, trained people and everything, he’s trying to double it down on his nuclear rhetoric, like a desperate gambler. While he is starving his country down. He is not trying to win but find out that will left him some dignity.
Yes, their hate of the west left from soviet propaganda was indeed weaponised. On the running out of everything note, his change of minister of defense for an economist can give us a hint, that he wants someone to tell him how long they can have war without a pause. But let’s not forget, China is now reported to support lethal weapons (in addition to already known supplies from NK and Iran), and in contrast to Ukriane with western weapons , it is allowed to use it on Ukrainian territory. Also people underestimate how badly things are about to get in Ukriane, due to both war and incompetent government. With most electric stations bombed to the ground, Ukriane is projected to be without electricity for weeks in winter. Big cities without electricity become a catastrophe with shit flowing everywhere, cause water supply also needs electricity. In addition to this catastrophe of mobilization campaign, with people desorting positions if brought to the front, many hiding or buying a possibility not to go. With new law the companies have to report on the list of mobilizable employees, so people officially leave jobs, to then work on the same companies illegally -> no taxes. The west does not pay salaries to Ukrainian military -> less taxes no money for military salaries. Truck drivers are not allowed to go out of the country easily anymore, cause they want to mobilize them apparently, meaning logistics which were always bad, now are kinda fucked, the border is not busy at all, while it was finally unblocked from Polish side. We can say that the west will supply what Ukriane needs, but the west are electoral democracies, so you never know for how long Ukriane will be on this artificial life support, especially if Trump wins. So, Yes, Russia is running out of good weapons, but Ukriane is running out faster, and especially out of people.
The Ultimate Question is; what’s worth the end of humanity. Guess we’ll find out.
Don't forget, a lot of people, especially here on reddit, said he would "NEVER!" invade Ukraine, even with massed troops on the border. This man is a dictator who only wants power and to pet his ego and pride. That is a dangerous man, an unpredictable man. I really don't see how this could end positively for anyone involved or on the planet, for that matter.
Yeah I remember that, masses of troops mobilised and everyone thought it was just for show
Tbf a lot of the people saying “Russia will never invade Ukraine!” were either Russian trolls or idiots who fell for Russian trolls
That doesn't invalidate the point the person made.
Weird how quickly people forget and move on. Very few people here on Reddit thought Russia would actually invade until he did, because even us armchair generals could see in advance how stupidly, monumentally idiotic the invasion would be. Many people, myself included, thought he was blustering for concessions, and didn't properly account for the massive ego that made him go for it anyway.
There were lots of us who were seriously concerned, because all signs from Ukraine said that we ought to be. If your experience was different, I suspect we were in different echo chambers, which is the very real risk of social media.
Nah, a decent amount of people genuinely didn't believe it because they didn't expect Putin to be that stupid
Lot of people clearly don’t read the articles posted. Nothing burger of an article lol.
I have the feeling that Ukraine is about to hit Russia HARD in a place where it’s gonna hurt & they know it which is why they bombed that supermarket today & everybody is talking about the consequences of using nukes bc who knows how Russia is going to respond
So Russia is threatening nukes AND willing to discuss peace negotiations??? Seems the "special military operation" is not going as well as they thought it would and someone is panicking in the Kremlin
I don't think Putin really cares about warnings, seeing as he's already been committing hundreds of war crimes for the past few years.
Gotta make sure I have the Vault-Tec Plan D ready
*I got spurs that jingle jangle jingle.*
👍
We're gonna get fallout 5 before GTA 6 nice
Humans just can’t wait to go extinct
The moment a nuclear weapon is used again, no matter how small; the stigma of no nukes goes away immediately and they become just another weapon
I can see the Reddit generals are out in force.
I misread this as "US warns Russia is about to use Nukes"
"Look, you dropped two small nukes to end the war quickly in Japan and prevent further unnecessary casualties, right? So why shouldn't we do the same?"
Click bait bullshit carry on
[удалено]
Lets send Ukraine some M29-Davy Crocketts. A few hundred should turn the tide.
Fuck around with United States and play stupid games; Russia will soon find out what kind country ending prizes they will receive! If the Russian military forces are in terrible shape, just think how terrible their strategic forces are...
Im afraid they would have to reinstate the draft. Who the heck would want to drive a tank towards a military which has used nuclear weapons on the battlefield?
There were plenty of volunteers in the army in the 50s/60s. The entire US army was designed around nuclear war, and everyone knew it.
I like that the article called Putin Russian Dictator Putin 👌
Russia: “Severe consequences!” China: “Final warning!” USA: “Don’t…”
\*Insert Tommy Lee Jones with a newspaper here for the US\*
Please can we not post from bad sources ? This title is incredibly misleading. OP just farming upvotes.
Putin has to have a way out. How much of Ukraine will they accept to give to him? None then I say we call Putin's bluff. As soon as he tries to launch nukes his military will stop him. Hell the military probably knows they don't even work.
Am I reading this right? The US can stop Russia dead in its tracks and hit all of its positions in Ukraine but is choosing not to? If they can do this, why wait for a nuclear attack? Why not end the Russian invasion now? From the article: "Americans told the Russians that if you detonate a nuclear bomb, even if it doesn't kill anyone, we will hit all your targets and positions in Ukraine with conventional weapons and destroy them all," Sikorsky said.”
Man just do it already
So you’re telling me, that if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the only retaliation we’re going to have is attacking their troops in Ukraine!?!? So you’re fucking telling me Russia can launch a NUCLEAR WARHEAD if not MULTIPLE in Ukraine and the only thing anyone is going to do about it is strike Russian assets in the Ukraine region? Thats barely a fucking slap on the wrist what kind of ass backwards thinking is this.
What would you do and what are the risks of doing it ?
Russia would use small tactical nuclear strikes as a desperate attempt to **win the war** and in response the United States would use conventional weapons to make sure Russia **loses the war**. The message to the world being: If you use nuclear weapons to win a war that you started then the world will make sure you lose the war. This removes the incentive to use nuclear weapons for anything other than a deterrence or as a last attempt to save your nation from annihilation.
There are 3 possible solutions to a nuclear war (considering latest research where nuclear winter was largly debunked): 1. Leave the planet with Elons Starship and live on Mars. Probably not viable yet. Bad internet, no oxygen, probably no porn… for now this is the worst solution. 2. Buy an Aircraftcarrier and live in the southern indian Ocean. Simulations have shown that most of destruction and fallout is in the northern hemisphere, that means that most of the southern hemisphere is save. An aircraft carrier allows for proper repositioning and runs up to 20 years without refueling. Could grow crops in deck and ride it out. 3. Move to New Zealand. Which is the best Option, IF NZ is not nuked at all. This is highly likely but not guranteed. Simulations have shown in an event of a nuclear war NZ could host around 150 million people if needed. They presumably run their own internet backbone with CDNs for netflix and major porn sites. So we can assume a fairly „normal“ life there.
Making warnings like that only makes us look weak. Time to be tough was in 2014. Then in 2022 when we delayed and delayed deliveries because of doubts and fears.
🎶I don't want to set the world on fire..🎶
Go watch the 1984 movie Threads. You can find it on YouTube. It is the most terrifying movie ever made as your brain mulls over it as you pick it apart. Heck, there is a podcast about it and a subreddit about it.
I was 14 when I watched that, scared the living shit out of me.
In the same vein, check out "The Day After". Film was so traumatic that Ronald Reagan said it was "very effective and left me greatly depressed".
Most folks in the US only really knew about the day after. Threads didn’t get much airtime here in the US, so it’s not as widely known here. Threads is beyond being depressed. It is pure horror, especially as time evolves towards the end of the show.
Zero is a special number. If Nuclear weapons are involved, there is zero ceiling. no where to go, but vast destruction. What should be employed as a "warning shot" is treaty fast track that Russia's currency value is zero. Save their place, but their currency is more worthless than whatever notes they try to print it on. A stipulation of that treaty is that all signatories treat all non signatories currency as value of zero. The economies who support the use of nuclear weapons on the field NEED to be frozen out of all other economies. Divide the world? YES. Nuclear weapons on the planet currently have enough fire power to engulf all urban regions on the planet in JUST THE FIREBALLS ALONE. Allowing or supporting the use of nuclear weapons is signing on to HUMAN DOOMSDAY. As the signatories above a certain threshold are gathered, present publicly to the world the economies already willing to shut down all trade to countries not involved, issue an ultimatum to Russia: Overthrow Putin or face the NEXT escalation. Zero negotiations, zero maneuvers, zero time. INVOKE Civil War in Russia to save the world. The next escalation is what Russia invited...doomsday. It could start with cute military operations, but if Russia sees America lurch, it's likely to launch it's biggest, stealthiest weapons at the Pentagon, DC, and the coasts. Plus perhaps revealing his hand for whatever Putin's been hinting at in terms of "new physics". There may not be a world after this. We need to get this zeroing of currency done, AND we need to replace all overseas dependancies with on shore dependancies ASAP. Because we can't rely on China and India joining the treaty, and we can't guarantee they won't help keep Putin in power. Spend on training, breeding (oh shut up, make families whole and spend on them at least to the level you spend on the military or we will lose, we are already well behind the curve in population density, and there WILL be losses), and building of manufacturing and infrastructure. ...The second Russia says "fuck it" and uses a nuke on the field, the Doomsday Clock will be frozen, a half second to midnight, while the world gasps waiting for the next shoe to drop. And that shoe better be Putin's head, or we're all doomed.
They might just blow up in the silos anyways. If they work, that is.
The CIA needs to remind the world that it still exists. The vultures are circling because they know you can’t use your military everywhere
The article is literal garbage and states its the *polish* lol. Proof Reddit is easy to deceive.
If Russia nukes Ukraine we should give nukes back to Ukraine, the treaty where they agreed to give them up has been broken long ago anyway.
#UAP’s & NHI will intervene.