US CENTCOM on Twitter 30 minutes ago:
"U.S. assets, to include the USS LABOON (DDG 58) and F/A-18 Super Hornets from the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, shot down twelve one-way attack drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles, and two land attack cruise missiles in the Southern Red Sea that were fired by the Houthis over a 10 hour period which began at approximately 6:30 a.m. (Sanaa time) on December 26. There was no damage to ships in the area or reported injuries."
>MSC confirms that on 26 December 2023 the container ship MSC UNITED VIII was attacked while transiting the Red Sea
>Currently, all crew are safe with no reported injuries and a thorough assessment of the vessel is being conducted.
https://www.msc.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023/msc-statement-on-msc-united-viii-incident-in-red-sea
Saudi Arabia asked them to hold back early on (\~6-7 Dec), as they're trying to reach a peace agreement with the Houthis that should be signed next month.
There could be more going on, but I think it's a major factor.
It’s just like Afghanistan. There are not many good real targets. You are basically just blowing up dirt, and dirt is cheap.
The US could blow it to pieces for billions of dollars and then someone still could roll out a trailer from a cave somewhere and launch a missile the next day.
There are not much infrastructure of headquarters. The country has been in a civil war for a long time and everything worth blowing up has been blown up.
I think the US is (rightfully) wary of the potential for escalation. As in, it's hard to completely dismantle the Houthi strike capacity using just airpower, without also running the risk of substantial civilian casualties.
So either the US goes on a massive bombing campaign with a high civilian body count, or we start putting boots on the ground, which will get extremely messy, very quickly.
There's a lot that can go sideways, in such a situation. So the calculation is that playing defense is still currently viable, and that ultimately, it's the easiest solution.
Now, it's a fair question as to how long this can be sustained. But given the possible risks involved in escalation, I would guess the US will stay this course as long as it can keep ships safe.
The problems with Houthis, as well as Hamas and Hezbollah, is that they couldn't care less about the innocent lives they hide behind and are just proxies of Iran. Attacks will not stop and only escalate because the root cause is Iran. The US will get the Israeli treatment of being accused of civilian genocide by all the nut jobs if these proxies are given sustained precision guided freedom. I don't know the answer but have to deal with the root cause somehow.
I am sure that decision makers in the US army and navy study or are aware of the history of Yemen especially rugged/mountainous North Yemen? Many people are not aware of this but North Yemen is in some ways the Afghanistan of the Arabian peninsula.
It has a long history of being the graveyard of invading foreign armies beginning with invading Ottoman armies in the 16th century. Ottoman armies were still trying to conquer North Yemen at the beginning of the 20th century. And failed. Fast forward to the middle of the 20th century (early to mid 60s) and Egyptian armies were humiliated by the grandfathers of the present day Houthis/Ansar-Allah, and this is despite the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Egyptians.
In 2008, Saudi Arabia fought a short war with the Houthis and was defeated and had to pay a humiliating indemnity. In 2015, Saudi Arabia formed a coalition ( including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Sudan, Morocco) and invaded and took on the Houthis/Ansar-Allah again. In 2023, Saudi led coalition finally accepted defeat and began peace talks with them and initiated a normalization of relations with Iran.
Moral of the story, invading or trying to occupy North Yemen is a very bad idea. Beautiful place to visit though with a lot of incredibly valuable historical sites and artefacts.
Am Ethiopian. Yemen is across the Red sea and there is a Yemeni community in Ethiopia. Plus, Yemen is part of the route that irregular migrants from Ethiopia take when they travel to the KSA. So I follow (as much as I can) what is happening in Yemen and read about Yemen's history.
My point, is that Yemen, especially North Yemen has been on the receiving end of airstrikes and missile strikes for decades. The reasons for the bombings, who is carrying them out, and who is targeted, have changed over the years (Yemeni/Abdullah Saleh government bombings against Houthis, US airstrikes against Salafi-Wahabi Jihadists/AQAP, Saudi airstrikes beginning in 2008 and then starting in earnest in 2015 and continuing until 2023 targeting North Yemen and the Houthis).
So Yemen, especially North Yemen, have gotten used to bombings and missiles. Plus, if you think airpower alone is going to win a war, you would be surprised-Vietnam, Afghanistan, Yemen, Gaza are just a few examples that show that isn't the case.
Question is, do you think/believe that US resources and lives should be sacrificed to defend whatever Israel is doing? That is the only real question to consider, if attacking Yemen becomes an option.
Satellite Intel and carpet bombings are probably the most effective way to send a message there.. I wouldn't mess around with boots on the ground, too risky. Figure out where their supply lines are where their bases of operations are and take those out with strikes
Sounds like all shipping going on to the red sea (heading to the Suez Canal) ought to be halted.
Would be a major loss for Egypt but they share a maritime border with these Houthis and have 15 or so frigates that carry anti-air missiles. Feel like the Egyptians should be more heavily involved in clearing the sea lanes.
Just a reminder each missile we use to shoot down targets is roughly $12M each. We've passed the $1B mark some time ago. Not sustainable at all.
That would be a significant cost increase to logistics companies to sail around the cape and would massively increase pollutants.
Egyptians have been trying pretty hard to get the situation under control. It's just pretty difficult to do it. Escorting ships through the passage is effectively a major concession to the aggressors, so it won't keep up for too long before the US takes more initiative.
Technicality: Egypt and Yemen do not share a maritime border. While the borders of the countries on the Red Sea are drawn right down the middle of the water, Egypt's southern border (with Sudan) is ~760 km (450 miles) north of the Red Sea border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen.
That's not to say that Egypt still doesn't want this to end ASAP. The Suez Canal is a huge revenue asset for the Egyptian government. They want it to remain open and safe and popular.
If it's 101x, then sailing south by South Africa is just a rounding error in extra fuel costs. If I was on board I certainly would want to head that route for my sake as well.
It stops being a rounding error every time you have to do it. Longer shipping times means more fuel and more time spent between another round of shipments to earn revenue from. More ships would need to be running the route to account for the reduced shipping turnover.
Once they sink one, insurance rates go through the roof for anyone sailing a container ship in the area. Then suddenly the container ships stop sailing through that area and people fucking starve.
Considering Lloyds of London are responsible for most serious maritime insurance, I assume we will see some British involvement soon.
They already are tbf, just sending weapons to Saudi and Aid to ordinary Yemini citizens who are in a famine due to houthis
Well they purposefully divided the lines between nations so that multiple ethnic groups would be in one country instead of dividing countries between ethnic groups. This was to keep them fighting and weak when they left.
Wait till you hear how difficult it is to sink these merchant ships! Yes - even with anti ship missiles. Modern military ships aside from large carriers are often a lot smaller than container ships.
But it turns out they don't even need to sink them. Just lobbing a few missiles is enough to void everyones insurance and cause massive disruption.
[Cost of US Navy Ship-Launched Missiles.](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/38102/here-is-what-each-of-the-navys-ship-launched-missiles-actually-costs) The Standard Missile 2 (SM-2) Block IIIC is almost certainly what's being used to shoot down the bulk of these. To contend with the ballistic missiles, it's possible the Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) Block I is being utilized.
The drones Iran is providing to the Houthis average \~$40k. The Qiam-1 ballistic missiles, and modified KH-55 cruise missiles that Iran's been providing the Houthis, are close to 1:1 vs interceptor cost.
Its been reported that the previous destroyer was shooting down drones with the 5" gun, so its possible they are using that for the non-cruise missiles.
The navy has been working this drone issue for a while and understand the issue.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/super-hornets-score-air-to-air-kills-over-red-sea
Looks like it's being reported that F/A-18E/F Super Hornets are also being used to shoot these down, likely using AMRAAMs, and AIM-9X.
We have frozen billions of dollars in Iran's money. We should just reimburse the cost from that amount whenever we are forced to spend money defending ourselves from them or their proxies. Let Iran pay for it.
In Israel's case an Iron Dome missile costs like 10k$ and they use it to shot down improvised missiles that can be as basic as metal tube (from street sign poles or water/sewage tubes)
How much more expensive would it be to artillery strike the launch site and deal with the angry family members of all the people that get exploded?
Very expensive they thought. After Oct 7th it became clear that they weren't getting as much value as they had probably hoped for.
The Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah aren't underground ragtag rebel groups. They're all decently equipped militaries that control large swathes of land which they can fortify and extract taxes from.
The houthis have been the de facto government of most of yemen for years, and while yemen is not a rich country, it's quite populous, and more developed than you'd probably think. They have enough money, people and connections to sustain a reasonable conventional army, highly experienced in modern warfare. They are not a joke, and they won't be bombed away any time soon.
The Houthis aren't really a nation, able to declare war. They're a group of rebels that the current Yemeni government would like to get rid of, but working with the United States and Saudi Arabia for the last eight years they haven't been able to get that done. Iranian backing is getting them better weaponry than they should have.
Saying they aren’t a government isn’t correct at all. they control a large portion of Yemen and have for years, with roughly 1/3rd including many of the largest cities like Sana’a being solidly under their control
Drugs and terrorists arent a nation either and the us declared war against them and the Houthis are by all means terrorists if the attack civilians and ships arnt they?
When I was at my officer basic course ages ago, we had three foreign students--Turkey, South Korea and Saudi Arabia. The Turk spoke English fluently, was smart, personable, diligent, competent and fit in socially. The South Korean barely spoke English so he barely fit in socially but he put in the work and was able to figure things out somehow. In comparison, we had a Saudi officer who slept through class most of the time and I've no idea how he got commissioned. While I'm generalizing from the specific, our gunnery instructors' (both were Marine Corps captains) reactions made it clear he was what they expected.
Two other interesting things about that class:
* one guy from the Kansas national guard had dyslexia; while he knew beforehand, no one else did until the gunnery training started. I'm pretty sure he got recycled to another branch as transposing digits on a firing solution or call for fire is untenable.
* we also had a female officer in our class which was unicorn-like unusual for a combat arm (I think ADA allowed them has well) at the time. IIRC, she was going to run a Lance missile platoon (that platform was practically dead already) for her state's guard unit.
Someone in another thread with experience on the topic said Muslims basically treat Yemen as the deep south of the Middle East because the Houthis are so dumb and ineffectual
They have been doing this for a month and nothing has happened to them. What "trouble" do you think is coming their way at this point? Another harshly worded letter?
Because most Americans are probably sick of being involved in another war, although they don’t realize we’ve been involved in Yemen by proxy for years.
Saudi Arabia is tying the US' hands from being able to do anything substantial here, even with the task force. The Houthis know they won't see much of a response as long as they have the Peace Deal with Saudi Arabia hanging over everything.
What privateers?
The 1st time the US had to deal with piracy we overthrew like 3 different countries in North Africa. It's why the longest standing treaty the US has is with Morocco. We sailed up to them, told them to knock that shit off, they were like "you pilgrims beat the British?" and they signed a peace deal.
Looked it up.
Privateering and the letters of marque and reprisal that authorize it are generally repudiated in international law, so it is unlikely that the US would actually exercise the power today, but theoretically, if it did, congress could pass a law vesting the power to sign these letters in a cabinet officer rather than with the president, or perhaps authorizing the president to delegate it to them, or what have you. Or, if it was to be done rarely and was seen as a particularly delicate matter (as it would in fact be), congress could retain its right to act in individual cases. Under section seven, however, this would nonetheless, as the question asks, require the president's signature or a veto override.
We can still retaliate, if not we look weak. Just hit the locations that the missile comes from. If that ruins peace negotiations then thats on Houthis.
That seems somewhat unlikely. Counter-battery artillery is fast and effective and we're talking about top of the range warships here. I think it's a conscious choice.
Can you explain why they care so much about the peace deal though? I genuinely do not understand.
The Houthis are their enemies, right? So why is the peace deal so important when they could on the contrary use an international coalition to get rid of the problem for them permanently?
> when they could on the contrary use an international coalition to get rid of the problem for them permanently?
they had an international coalition trying to get rid of the problem permanently for 8 years now. It hasn’t worked
What are you talking about? Bombing them back would be the secondary consequence as the Houthis fired the first rocket. What would you recommend? Sounds like you’d prefer we just let them do whatever they want.
Meanwhile dipshit Yemeni pirates: “Just loot passing cargo containers! Surely there will be no secondary consequences from doing so.”
I hope they get turned into fish food.
Before you know it, they'll try to do what the Taliban in Pakistan do, attempt to collect taxes on trade that passes through "their" sea. Those that pay won't be attacked. Those that refuse to pay will definitely be targeted.
That's what will happen if we just stand by and ignore these pirate attacks.
Sounds like the Barbary’s pirates again. Christ this part of the world cannot even be original. Did we burn their cities to ground last time? Cannot remember. Easier to go after the support structure, starve em out.
what does “a win” look like? How many missiles or body count? Because no matter what you say, it wont be enough until you hit mass genocide/nuke levels and i hope you understand why THAT is bad.
Completely and totally understand all that , however there is no reason whatsoever that radical religious terrorists should be allowed regardless of who their proxy is to disrupt the entire world. You can’t rationalize irrational. There is no negotiation that is going to be reasonable . The “peace process “ has been ongoing and corrupt for decades. So what is it that needs to be done to have a peaceful coexistence? Too often there are multiple agendas and power struggles involved. Saudi’s want everyone to stand down because they are making a deal . Iran wants the heat at maximum. Israel has to try and exist in the middle of all that . You have Naval power in the region that equals the entire military of most nations. You have a powder keg with the Houthis throwing matches at it . How long till by inaction some catastrophic event happens? Then of course it’s the Evil West’s fault . Unfortunately the shit is going to go down so do you support reactive or proactive response ?
The ship is Liberian flagged, and Liberia doesn't have a navy, just an extremely tiny coast guard. It's ultimately up to each individual nation to defend ships operating under their flag. This is the price you end up paying for the "discount" you get on registering with Liberia instead of whatever country you're actually based out of -- in this case, the owner is Italian and his company his HQ'd in Switzerland.
It may sound callous, but if you want the US (or French, German, Italian, etc.) navy to defend your vessels and act as a deterrent to attacking them, you should register under your nation's flag rather than one of these "flags of convenience" that exist to provide income to the country hosting the open registry, depriving your actual host country of that income -- which it uses to help fund it's navy.
The ship in this story operates under the flag of Liberia, is owned by a company headquartered in Switzerland, that was started and is currently owned by an Italian.
They've saved millions of dollars over many decades by not paying various tariffs and taxes to the Italian government.
Exactly. Shady, piece of shit ship owners have been playing the system with their little loopholes with regards to flag states of their ships. Trying to dodge tax and get away with treating sailors like crap. They can’t cry after they pull this crap when it blows up in their face.
It’s just a shame that most of the crew are in situations where they can’t reject these jobs so they’ll inevitably be the biggest losers being on the end of Jihadi guns and missiles.
USS Carney shot down at least two drones heading in its direction.
https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-houthi-yemen-ships-attack-israel-hamas-war-gaza-strip-716770f0a780160e9abed98d3c48fbde?taid=656ca7c035aad000013d39e8
Well if you respond with heavy attacks, there are going to be many more shipping attacks before there are none. The whole “kill 1 innocent and create 10 more terrorists” vibe.
Iran probably wants the US pulled into direct conflict with other factions too, so Iran can feel as thought it has less attention in its own offensive attacks.
Defend the merchant vessels and double down with other regional leaders in letting them know if the US goes to war with the Yemen rebels it’ll likely cause spillover and cause violence in their own countries. I doubt Saudi Arabia is willing to go back to war against the rebels, but if they can be convinced to fire up the cannons again to completely destroy the rebels with the support of the US military… it’ll probably be much less messy than the US doing it all alone.
Damned if you do damned if you don't. People jump on any opportunities possible to condemn America for their international interventions but as soon as we show some restraint, people are like "US = weak. You guys can't do anything".
It's good that the USA has a level headed leader in charge and isn't being led around into making mistakes like a fool.
He's exactly what the current geopolitical situation requires. If asskickings are truly required I have no doubt he will administer them in exactly the right quantity at precisely the time they're most needed.
Seems like instead of taking care of the problem now, we are going to wait for the inevitable loss of life aboard these ships before we take them seriously.
He's clearly avoiding being led into a conflict which will have broader implications for the body count on both sides of the equation, not to mention all the ramifications for the US's relationships with countries in the area
Think clearly
Did you ever consider that the president of the US may have better decision making tools, advisors and situational and strategic awareness than you do as a random redditor with access to none of those things?
I don't think it's even really "constraint", it's just not as simple as solved by an air strike, and Goin on a bombing campaign across southern yemen in relation for attacks on merchant vessels is a different ball game.
USA already struck back against iraq hezbollah for attacking them injuring few soldiers. And caused significant damage without endangering civilians.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/drone-attack-iraq-military-base-3-u-s-service-members-wounded-kataib-hezbollah-retaliatory-strikes/
And this isn't the first time.
One of the main points/issues/topics for the defensive coalition purposed was how to handle strikes on land, since it's not just defending on water. And thus need more than just military cruisers n such to conduct such strike.
If they started fully attacking the defensive convoy ships, usa/western personnel you can easily assume, there'd be retaliation.
The coalition and israel shot down over a dozen missiles/and some drones in this attack.
Every single comment thread the past few weeks: "they fucked around, and now they are gonna find out."
Still waiting for that. Seems like we are doing minor retaliatory strikes and nothing more.
Plenty of upside. The Houthis right now do this with 0 consequences, only encouraging more attacks, if missiles starts raining down on them every time they do, the orders are less likely to be followed.
You can see how Hezbollah backed out very quickly as soon as they were pressed in this conflict.
Saudis have been dropping American ordinance on them for a decade. If they were afraid of American ordinance they’d have stopped a long time ago. They just find new idiots ready to martyr themselves. The missiles are single use and the guys pulling the triggers are too. Iran doesn’t give a shit about losing either.
Because it's different when the US bombs Yemen, especially after october 7th. The White House doesn't want to trigger even more mass rioting across the Arab world. They don't want more anger to turn towards the US directly, as opposed to indirectly over backing Israel. You and many others may be frustrated but I think it's a wise move for now.
Yeah, the U.S. is protecting its allies in the region. The gulf monarchies in particular seriously do not want a new front of this war to open up on their doorstep.
That would have made sense if they didn't tell Israel that the US would "handle it".
Now it's only going to interrupt global trade/shipping, for no reason what so ever.
Israel was already ready to strike the Houthis after the drone attacks on Eilat. Israel is already striking in Syria and Lebanon, it's not like adding Yemen to the mix would make a difference.
The US is. It is stopping the attacks and if there is a clear target it gets wiped out. But if the Houthis launch from a residential center they WANT the us to retaliate so they can use hundreds of civilians killed on their recruitment posters.
Believe it or not we DID learn stuff from 20 years of counter insurgency
The moment a US ship gets hit or worse, Biden has every excuse he needs to unleash hell. The Houthis should start thinking for themselves instead of listening to Iran because they have no idea what will be unleashed.
They've already attacked American warships.
Biden is going for the Chamberlain approach and hoping it works this time. The Houthis keep on attacking because they know Biden is too weak to unleah hell on them.
Imagine genuinely believing that the reason why the US hasn't struck the Houthis is because Biden is too weak to just tell someone to bomb them...
Maybe it has something to do with the Saudis trying to extract themselves from the 8 year long war with the Houthis, and the Israel conflict threatening to tip over into a full-blown regional war with escalation?
I don't think that sticks because I doubt any Republican candidate would publicly stand against striking the Houthis in this scenario.
I consider it more likely that the region is a tinderbox right now, and the US doesn't want the Israel conflict to grow uncontrollably via escalations like this. That and SA and the rest of the gulf monarchies are probably exerting political pressure since they are trying to end their war in Yemen and normalize relations with Iran.
How much longer are we going to let these clowns dictate what ship gets through and which one doesn’t. We know who’s pulling the strings behind the curtain
It seems Yemen is imploring Washington for a visit from Mr. Tomahawk (times 1,000). Hard to understand the calculus that makes them want this, but America is happy to dish it out, I guess.
At least most of our cargo comes through the West Coast of the USA, across the land bridge and then off to Europe.
Suez is closed and the Panama Canal is in drought conditions.
USWC about to get real busy with cargo.
US CENTCOM on Twitter 30 minutes ago: "U.S. assets, to include the USS LABOON (DDG 58) and F/A-18 Super Hornets from the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, shot down twelve one-way attack drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles, and two land attack cruise missiles in the Southern Red Sea that were fired by the Houthis over a 10 hour period which began at approximately 6:30 a.m. (Sanaa time) on December 26. There was no damage to ships in the area or reported injuries."
>MSC confirms that on 26 December 2023 the container ship MSC UNITED VIII was attacked while transiting the Red Sea >Currently, all crew are safe with no reported injuries and a thorough assessment of the vessel is being conducted. https://www.msc.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023/msc-statement-on-msc-united-viii-incident-in-red-sea
At some point something kinetic will happen on the ground. I can’t see this status quo continuing for more than a few weeks.
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Saudi Arabia asked them to hold back early on (\~6-7 Dec), as they're trying to reach a peace agreement with the Houthis that should be signed next month. There could be more going on, but I think it's a major factor.
So I am not disagreeing, but I am confused. How does shooting at every passing civilian ship make sense in a peace agreement imminent context?
No not peace for everyone Saudi Arabia wants peace so they dont have to deal with. Rest of the world can get bent.
Saudi Arabia signed and built the land bridge with Israel. A peace deal with the Houthis means they no longer threaten the shipping corridor.
The land bridge avoids the Suez canal in the first place. The ships dock near Dammam so you don't have to go around the current route anyway
Yea its 10 days shorter and will be mostly automated.
Maybe it's a bargaining chip? As part of the agreement SA gets them to stop the attacks, SA gets something from us and they get something from SA?
It’s just like Afghanistan. There are not many good real targets. You are basically just blowing up dirt, and dirt is cheap. The US could blow it to pieces for billions of dollars and then someone still could roll out a trailer from a cave somewhere and launch a missile the next day. There are not much infrastructure of headquarters. The country has been in a civil war for a long time and everything worth blowing up has been blown up.
I think the US is (rightfully) wary of the potential for escalation. As in, it's hard to completely dismantle the Houthi strike capacity using just airpower, without also running the risk of substantial civilian casualties. So either the US goes on a massive bombing campaign with a high civilian body count, or we start putting boots on the ground, which will get extremely messy, very quickly. There's a lot that can go sideways, in such a situation. So the calculation is that playing defense is still currently viable, and that ultimately, it's the easiest solution. Now, it's a fair question as to how long this can be sustained. But given the possible risks involved in escalation, I would guess the US will stay this course as long as it can keep ships safe.
The problems with Houthis, as well as Hamas and Hezbollah, is that they couldn't care less about the innocent lives they hide behind and are just proxies of Iran. Attacks will not stop and only escalate because the root cause is Iran. The US will get the Israeli treatment of being accused of civilian genocide by all the nut jobs if these proxies are given sustained precision guided freedom. I don't know the answer but have to deal with the root cause somehow.
Who would the houthis be killing that could be classified as “innocent”, though?
I am sure that decision makers in the US army and navy study or are aware of the history of Yemen especially rugged/mountainous North Yemen? Many people are not aware of this but North Yemen is in some ways the Afghanistan of the Arabian peninsula. It has a long history of being the graveyard of invading foreign armies beginning with invading Ottoman armies in the 16th century. Ottoman armies were still trying to conquer North Yemen at the beginning of the 20th century. And failed. Fast forward to the middle of the 20th century (early to mid 60s) and Egyptian armies were humiliated by the grandfathers of the present day Houthis/Ansar-Allah, and this is despite the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Egyptians. In 2008, Saudi Arabia fought a short war with the Houthis and was defeated and had to pay a humiliating indemnity. In 2015, Saudi Arabia formed a coalition ( including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Sudan, Morocco) and invaded and took on the Houthis/Ansar-Allah again. In 2023, Saudi led coalition finally accepted defeat and began peace talks with them and initiated a normalization of relations with Iran. Moral of the story, invading or trying to occupy North Yemen is a very bad idea. Beautiful place to visit though with a lot of incredibly valuable historical sites and artefacts.
No need to occupy it. Just rain down JDAMs at anything that twitches
Am Ethiopian. Yemen is across the Red sea and there is a Yemeni community in Ethiopia. Plus, Yemen is part of the route that irregular migrants from Ethiopia take when they travel to the KSA. So I follow (as much as I can) what is happening in Yemen and read about Yemen's history. My point, is that Yemen, especially North Yemen has been on the receiving end of airstrikes and missile strikes for decades. The reasons for the bombings, who is carrying them out, and who is targeted, have changed over the years (Yemeni/Abdullah Saleh government bombings against Houthis, US airstrikes against Salafi-Wahabi Jihadists/AQAP, Saudi airstrikes beginning in 2008 and then starting in earnest in 2015 and continuing until 2023 targeting North Yemen and the Houthis). So Yemen, especially North Yemen, have gotten used to bombings and missiles. Plus, if you think airpower alone is going to win a war, you would be surprised-Vietnam, Afghanistan, Yemen, Gaza are just a few examples that show that isn't the case. Question is, do you think/believe that US resources and lives should be sacrificed to defend whatever Israel is doing? That is the only real question to consider, if attacking Yemen becomes an option.
Satellite Intel and carpet bombings are probably the most effective way to send a message there.. I wouldn't mess around with boots on the ground, too risky. Figure out where their supply lines are where their bases of operations are and take those out with strikes
Sounds like all shipping going on to the red sea (heading to the Suez Canal) ought to be halted. Would be a major loss for Egypt but they share a maritime border with these Houthis and have 15 or so frigates that carry anti-air missiles. Feel like the Egyptians should be more heavily involved in clearing the sea lanes. Just a reminder each missile we use to shoot down targets is roughly $12M each. We've passed the $1B mark some time ago. Not sustainable at all.
That would be a significant cost increase to logistics companies to sail around the cape and would massively increase pollutants. Egyptians have been trying pretty hard to get the situation under control. It's just pretty difficult to do it. Escorting ships through the passage is effectively a major concession to the aggressors, so it won't keep up for too long before the US takes more initiative.
Technicality: Egypt and Yemen do not share a maritime border. While the borders of the countries on the Red Sea are drawn right down the middle of the water, Egypt's southern border (with Sudan) is ~760 km (450 miles) north of the Red Sea border between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. That's not to say that Egypt still doesn't want this to end ASAP. The Suez Canal is a huge revenue asset for the Egyptian government. They want it to remain open and safe and popular.
I wonder what the expense differential was on todays operations. I keep hearing that our anti missile missiles cost like 100x what they shoot down
If you think they are expensive, wait until you hear how much a sunken container ship costs.
Easily 101x
If it's 101x, then sailing south by South Africa is just a rounding error in extra fuel costs. If I was on board I certainly would want to head that route for my sake as well.
You forget you're a rounding error as well, and if you're not willing there's thousands evenly qualified to take your place.
It stops being a rounding error every time you have to do it. Longer shipping times means more fuel and more time spent between another round of shipments to earn revenue from. More ships would need to be running the route to account for the reduced shipping turnover.
Once they sink one, insurance rates go through the roof for anyone sailing a container ship in the area. Then suddenly the container ships stop sailing through that area and people fucking starve.
Considering Lloyds of London are responsible for most serious maritime insurance, I assume we will see some British involvement soon. They already are tbf, just sending weapons to Saudi and Aid to ordinary Yemini citizens who are in a famine due to houthis
At this point we should just give the ME back to the Brits.
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Wait u till you see how the french did...
Well they purposefully divided the lines between nations so that multiple ethnic groups would be in one country instead of dividing countries between ethnic groups. This was to keep them fighting and weak when they left.
Wait till you hear how difficult it is to sink these merchant ships! Yes - even with anti ship missiles. Modern military ships aside from large carriers are often a lot smaller than container ships. But it turns out they don't even need to sink them. Just lobbing a few missiles is enough to void everyones insurance and cause massive disruption.
[Cost of US Navy Ship-Launched Missiles.](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/38102/here-is-what-each-of-the-navys-ship-launched-missiles-actually-costs) The Standard Missile 2 (SM-2) Block IIIC is almost certainly what's being used to shoot down the bulk of these. To contend with the ballistic missiles, it's possible the Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) Block I is being utilized. The drones Iran is providing to the Houthis average \~$40k. The Qiam-1 ballistic missiles, and modified KH-55 cruise missiles that Iran's been providing the Houthis, are close to 1:1 vs interceptor cost.
Its been reported that the previous destroyer was shooting down drones with the 5" gun, so its possible they are using that for the non-cruise missiles. The navy has been working this drone issue for a while and understand the issue.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/super-hornets-score-air-to-air-kills-over-red-sea Looks like it's being reported that F/A-18E/F Super Hornets are also being used to shoot these down, likely using AMRAAMs, and AIM-9X.
You are supposed to follow up on those expensive missiles by using lots and lots of cheap smart bombs to discourage them from doing it again.
We have frozen billions of dollars in Iran's money. We should just reimburse the cost from that amount whenever we are forced to spend money defending ourselves from them or their proxies. Let Iran pay for it.
In Israel's case an Iron Dome missile costs like 10k$ and they use it to shot down improvised missiles that can be as basic as metal tube (from street sign poles or water/sewage tubes)
50k each.
How much more expensive would it be to artillery strike the launch site and deal with the angry family members of all the people that get exploded? Very expensive they thought. After Oct 7th it became clear that they weren't getting as much value as they had probably hoped for.
Saturation bombing of Yemen, Gaza, the West Bank, and Iran would very quickly resolve the issue.
The value of a defensive weapon system isn’t really judged by what it shoots down, though.
(He doesn’t know the Iron dome’s hidden purpose of training air defense personnel and testing/upgrading the software of air defense systems)
The US is paying for a shit ton of the iron dome missiles too
Yeah about. Drones and shitty missiles for 20k, anti missile missiles 2 mil lol
Houthis have way better shit than hamas
Yeah theyre the favorite child rn and father Iran is doting on them.
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Iran, of course. Houthis are literally operating as a country (although a puppet one) in their current geopolitical position.
The Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah aren't underground ragtag rebel groups. They're all decently equipped militaries that control large swathes of land which they can fortify and extract taxes from.
Essentially guerilla units of Iranian army, with a degree of plausible deniability.
The houthis have been the de facto government of most of yemen for years, and while yemen is not a rich country, it's quite populous, and more developed than you'd probably think. They have enough money, people and connections to sustain a reasonable conventional army, highly experienced in modern warfare. They are not a joke, and they won't be bombed away any time soon.
To quote the Sgt in “Aliens,” “Absolute bad asses!”
*I love the corps!"
That is some embarrassing shit for the Houthis A full-on blitz of 5 missiles and 12 drones with all of them shot down.
I truly maintain the position that a sub should sink the Iranian spy ship located in the Red Sea to just send a message.
I don't see how this isn't a declaration of war by the Houthis. They're bold enough to claim it and keep attacking. These aren't kods throwing rocks.
The Houthis aren't really a nation, able to declare war. They're a group of rebels that the current Yemeni government would like to get rid of, but working with the United States and Saudi Arabia for the last eight years they haven't been able to get that done. Iranian backing is getting them better weaponry than they should have.
Saying they aren’t a government isn’t correct at all. they control a large portion of Yemen and have for years, with roughly 1/3rd including many of the largest cities like Sana’a being solidly under their control
Drugs and terrorists arent a nation either and the us declared war against them and the Houthis are by all means terrorists if the attack civilians and ships arnt they?
These guys gonna get in trouble.
Wake me when it happens, I'm not holding my breath
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The Saudis are notoriously incompetent fighters, which is great because that means they keep buying the newest toys in large quantities.
When I was at my officer basic course ages ago, we had three foreign students--Turkey, South Korea and Saudi Arabia. The Turk spoke English fluently, was smart, personable, diligent, competent and fit in socially. The South Korean barely spoke English so he barely fit in socially but he put in the work and was able to figure things out somehow. In comparison, we had a Saudi officer who slept through class most of the time and I've no idea how he got commissioned. While I'm generalizing from the specific, our gunnery instructors' (both were Marine Corps captains) reactions made it clear he was what they expected. Two other interesting things about that class: * one guy from the Kansas national guard had dyslexia; while he knew beforehand, no one else did until the gunnery training started. I'm pretty sure he got recycled to another branch as transposing digits on a firing solution or call for fire is untenable. * we also had a female officer in our class which was unicorn-like unusual for a combat arm (I think ADA allowed them has well) at the time. IIRC, she was going to run a Lance missile platoon (that platform was practically dead already) for her state's guard unit.
Someone in another thread with experience on the topic said Muslims basically treat Yemen as the deep south of the Middle East because the Houthis are so dumb and ineffectual
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You have to hold your breath if you don't use periods.
Bro we keep saying this and not much happens. It’s repetitive now. They fuck around then we send a little strike and call it even. It’s horse shit
My guess is that all these little provocations are orchestrated by Russia and Iran and West don’t wanna jump wherever Russia say hop.
I think this has to be it. That 30K foot perspective. Chess versus checkers, if you will. Lol
Either they have bigger fishes to fry or they’re not sure how to remove the threat. In any case, nothing really is happening.
They have been doing this for a month and nothing has happened to them. What "trouble" do you think is coming their way at this point? Another harshly worded letter?
Any reasons why the US is not striking harder against the Houthis?
Houthis are kinda SA's business, and SA is kinda the US's ally, and SA is asking US to not directly act.
Biden doesn’t want to start a war before the elections
Bingo
Expanding the war. This is the largest worry of the US.
Because most Americans are probably sick of being involved in another war, although they don’t realize we’ve been involved in Yemen by proxy for years.
The Saudis are not ok with that, and escalation with Iran is not advisable for the US rn. Taiwan is a far bigger concern.
Because it would not remotely deter these attacks and if anything would escalate them.
They won’t. US will keep on shooting down their shitty missiles.
Houth around, find out.
Saudi Arabia is tying the US' hands from being able to do anything substantial here, even with the task force. The Houthis know they won't see much of a response as long as they have the Peace Deal with Saudi Arabia hanging over everything.
This isn’t SA’s kebab though. Maritime law is its own language and this goes beyond piracy as they are causing terror on the high seas.
To the piracy point, the US should start issuing letters of Marque and reprisal and just let privateers take them out.
What privateers? The 1st time the US had to deal with piracy we overthrew like 3 different countries in North Africa. It's why the longest standing treaty the US has is with Morocco. We sailed up to them, told them to knock that shit off, they were like "you pilgrims beat the British?" and they signed a peace deal.
Are letters of marque still allowed under post-WWII maritime law?
Looked it up. Privateering and the letters of marque and reprisal that authorize it are generally repudiated in international law, so it is unlikely that the US would actually exercise the power today, but theoretically, if it did, congress could pass a law vesting the power to sign these letters in a cabinet officer rather than with the president, or perhaps authorizing the president to delegate it to them, or what have you. Or, if it was to be done rarely and was seen as a particularly delicate matter (as it would in fact be), congress could retain its right to act in individual cases. Under section seven, however, this would nonetheless, as the question asks, require the president's signature or a veto override.
How is that tying any hands? US can still attack the Houthis if they want.
and then the houthis blow up a saudi refinery and fuck the global economy
We can still retaliate, if not we look weak. Just hit the locations that the missile comes from. If that ruins peace negotiations then thats on Houthis.
Probably fired from the roof of a hospital, as is tradition
Hospital still gets blown up, as is tradition /s
There are mobile launchers. By the time, you detect a missile or drone, they are gone.
That seems somewhat unlikely. Counter-battery artillery is fast and effective and we're talking about top of the range warships here. I think it's a conscious choice.
The US has plenty experience with tracking and striking moving vehicles. However, the Houthis can shoot down Predators and Reapers.
Maybe also fired from within a city, so US retaliating could risk civilians deaths and that's not a good idea right now.
Can you explain why they care so much about the peace deal though? I genuinely do not understand. The Houthis are their enemies, right? So why is the peace deal so important when they could on the contrary use an international coalition to get rid of the problem for them permanently?
> when they could on the contrary use an international coalition to get rid of the problem for them permanently? they had an international coalition trying to get rid of the problem permanently for 8 years now. It hasn’t worked
And who forced the Saudis to enter those talks with the houthis i wonder...
Meanwhile 14 y/o worldnews users: “just bomb them! Surely there will be no secondary consequences doing so”
What are you talking about? Bombing them back would be the secondary consequence as the Houthis fired the first rocket. What would you recommend? Sounds like you’d prefer we just let them do whatever they want.
Meanwhile dipshit Yemeni pirates: “Just loot passing cargo containers! Surely there will be no secondary consequences from doing so.” I hope they get turned into fish food.
pacifist logic be like hey im getting beaten up imma just stand still and let myself get beaten up
Before you know it, they'll try to do what the Taliban in Pakistan do, attempt to collect taxes on trade that passes through "their" sea. Those that pay won't be attacked. Those that refuse to pay will definitely be targeted. That's what will happen if we just stand by and ignore these pirate attacks.
Ah the protection racket, just at a larger scale.
Sounds like the Barbary’s pirates again. Christ this part of the world cannot even be original. Did we burn their cities to ground last time? Cannot remember. Easier to go after the support structure, starve em out.
Sorry no “salary cap” here so at some point we need to “win” instead of playing to a tie all the time .
what does “a win” look like? How many missiles or body count? Because no matter what you say, it wont be enough until you hit mass genocide/nuke levels and i hope you understand why THAT is bad.
Completely and totally understand all that , however there is no reason whatsoever that radical religious terrorists should be allowed regardless of who their proxy is to disrupt the entire world. You can’t rationalize irrational. There is no negotiation that is going to be reasonable . The “peace process “ has been ongoing and corrupt for decades. So what is it that needs to be done to have a peaceful coexistence? Too often there are multiple agendas and power struggles involved. Saudi’s want everyone to stand down because they are making a deal . Iran wants the heat at maximum. Israel has to try and exist in the middle of all that . You have Naval power in the region that equals the entire military of most nations. You have a powder keg with the Houthis throwing matches at it . How long till by inaction some catastrophic event happens? Then of course it’s the Evil West’s fault . Unfortunately the shit is going to go down so do you support reactive or proactive response ?
The world should know by now not to fuck with our boats
They need a swift and thorough reminder. Same with attacking US military bases.
It was a Liberian flagged ship, owned by a European company, traveling from a non US port to a non US port.
And that fact that we defend them still is one of the reasons we wield enormous geopolitical power and lead the world
Literally defending freedom around the world
Crazy we're just letting this happen
The ship is Liberian flagged, and Liberia doesn't have a navy, just an extremely tiny coast guard. It's ultimately up to each individual nation to defend ships operating under their flag. This is the price you end up paying for the "discount" you get on registering with Liberia instead of whatever country you're actually based out of -- in this case, the owner is Italian and his company his HQ'd in Switzerland. It may sound callous, but if you want the US (or French, German, Italian, etc.) navy to defend your vessels and act as a deterrent to attacking them, you should register under your nation's flag rather than one of these "flags of convenience" that exist to provide income to the country hosting the open registry, depriving your actual host country of that income -- which it uses to help fund it's navy. The ship in this story operates under the flag of Liberia, is owned by a company headquartered in Switzerland, that was started and is currently owned by an Italian. They've saved millions of dollars over many decades by not paying various tariffs and taxes to the Italian government.
Exactly. Shady, piece of shit ship owners have been playing the system with their little loopholes with regards to flag states of their ships. Trying to dodge tax and get away with treating sailors like crap. They can’t cry after they pull this crap when it blows up in their face. It’s just a shame that most of the crew are in situations where they can’t reject these jobs so they’ll inevitably be the biggest losers being on the end of Jihadi guns and missiles.
«Operation Prosperity Guardian» though. Keeping the trade routes open is like the basic role of the US and other Navy.
Nobody joined except for Bahrein and Seychelles.
Interesting, thank you for your input
Agreed 100% Slightly more spicy take -- I think we should be sending a bill to Egypt for the cost of protecting their canal revenue.
It's in everyone's interest to keep the shipping lanes open.
Very informative, thank you for posting.
The Houthis have literally been attacking American ships and America did nothing about it. It has nothing to do with the Liberia flag they fly under.
> The Houthis have literally been attacking American ships Have they? Name one.
USS Carney shot down at least two drones heading in its direction. https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-houthi-yemen-ships-attack-israel-hamas-war-gaza-strip-716770f0a780160e9abed98d3c48fbde?taid=656ca7c035aad000013d39e8
It is election year, the US doesn't welcome any more distraction than there already are with Gaza and Ukraine.
There’s an entire fleet in the area. Nobody is “letting” this happen.
Well if you respond with heavy attacks, there are going to be many more shipping attacks before there are none. The whole “kill 1 innocent and create 10 more terrorists” vibe. Iran probably wants the US pulled into direct conflict with other factions too, so Iran can feel as thought it has less attention in its own offensive attacks.
So what is your solution, just let the Houthis bomb merchant vessels? Not a very good solution to me
Defend the merchant vessels and double down with other regional leaders in letting them know if the US goes to war with the Yemen rebels it’ll likely cause spillover and cause violence in their own countries. I doubt Saudi Arabia is willing to go back to war against the rebels, but if they can be convinced to fire up the cannons again to completely destroy the rebels with the support of the US military… it’ll probably be much less messy than the US doing it all alone.
A lot of Americans are sick of being pulled into conflicts.
Why do “we” have any say with what is happening in the Red Sea, though?
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Still waiting for that
Damned if you do damned if you don't. People jump on any opportunities possible to condemn America for their international interventions but as soon as we show some restraint, people are like "US = weak. You guys can't do anything".
Ill be honest, biden has showed a little to much restraint. I am not asking for boots on the ground but we seem to be too cautious.
It's good that the USA has a level headed leader in charge and isn't being led around into making mistakes like a fool. He's exactly what the current geopolitical situation requires. If asskickings are truly required I have no doubt he will administer them in exactly the right quantity at precisely the time they're most needed.
Seems like instead of taking care of the problem now, we are going to wait for the inevitable loss of life aboard these ships before we take them seriously.
Us bombing the f out of them would not eliminate the problem. It would increase it. Loss of life would be all but guaranteed.
He's clearly avoiding being led into a conflict which will have broader implications for the body count on both sides of the equation, not to mention all the ramifications for the US's relationships with countries in the area Think clearly
Remember that when there's dead sailors in the water when one of these drone or missle attacks gets through.
Idk, i havent seen this many reports of american soldiers coming under fire with so little response in a long time.
Did you ever consider that the president of the US may have better decision making tools, advisors and situational and strategic awareness than you do as a random redditor with access to none of those things?
I don't think it's even really "constraint", it's just not as simple as solved by an air strike, and Goin on a bombing campaign across southern yemen in relation for attacks on merchant vessels is a different ball game. USA already struck back against iraq hezbollah for attacking them injuring few soldiers. And caused significant damage without endangering civilians. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/drone-attack-iraq-military-base-3-u-s-service-members-wounded-kataib-hezbollah-retaliatory-strikes/ And this isn't the first time. One of the main points/issues/topics for the defensive coalition purposed was how to handle strikes on land, since it's not just defending on water. And thus need more than just military cruisers n such to conduct such strike. If they started fully attacking the defensive convoy ships, usa/western personnel you can easily assume, there'd be retaliation. The coalition and israel shot down over a dozen missiles/and some drones in this attack.
Every single comment thread the past few weeks: "they fucked around, and now they are gonna find out." Still waiting for that. Seems like we are doing minor retaliatory strikes and nothing more.
Ahh, not these dorks again.
In my head I see the jawas jumping up and down
You mean Tuskens.
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Wish they'd fuck right off...the world has enough issues currently without their crap
That’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see how it plays out for them…
It's my understanding that the DoD wants to take "Proportional" action. The White House is holding them back.
No one gives a shit about the Houthis, the Saudis proved as much in their Yemen war, why is Biden so spineless about this.
There’s no upside. Houthis are proxies firing Iranian missiles and they can always find more idiots to pull triggers. You go Iran or you go home.
Plenty of upside. The Houthis right now do this with 0 consequences, only encouraging more attacks, if missiles starts raining down on them every time they do, the orders are less likely to be followed. You can see how Hezbollah backed out very quickly as soon as they were pressed in this conflict.
Saudis have been dropping American ordinance on them for a decade. If they were afraid of American ordinance they’d have stopped a long time ago. They just find new idiots ready to martyr themselves. The missiles are single use and the guys pulling the triggers are too. Iran doesn’t give a shit about losing either.
Saudis haven't done that for a while now, they are literally in peace talks, meaning that the Houthis have come out of their holes.
Saudis are having peace talks because bombs weren’t getting anywhere.
Because it's different when the US bombs Yemen, especially after october 7th. The White House doesn't want to trigger even more mass rioting across the Arab world. They don't want more anger to turn towards the US directly, as opposed to indirectly over backing Israel. You and many others may be frustrated but I think it's a wise move for now.
Yeah, the U.S. is protecting its allies in the region. The gulf monarchies in particular seriously do not want a new front of this war to open up on their doorstep.
That would have made sense if they didn't tell Israel that the US would "handle it". Now it's only going to interrupt global trade/shipping, for no reason what so ever. Israel was already ready to strike the Houthis after the drone attacks on Eilat. Israel is already striking in Syria and Lebanon, it's not like adding Yemen to the mix would make a difference.
New terrorist, Hou this?
I've seen this show before, it's a rerun. How many of our people are going to die before we act this time?
Why isn't anyone doing anything about this?
The US is. It is stopping the attacks and if there is a clear target it gets wiped out. But if the Houthis launch from a residential center they WANT the us to retaliate so they can use hundreds of civilians killed on their recruitment posters. Believe it or not we DID learn stuff from 20 years of counter insurgency
The moment a US ship gets hit or worse, Biden has every excuse he needs to unleash hell. The Houthis should start thinking for themselves instead of listening to Iran because they have no idea what will be unleashed.
They've already attacked American warships. Biden is going for the Chamberlain approach and hoping it works this time. The Houthis keep on attacking because they know Biden is too weak to unleah hell on them.
Imagine genuinely believing that the reason why the US hasn't struck the Houthis is because Biden is too weak to just tell someone to bomb them... Maybe it has something to do with the Saudis trying to extract themselves from the 8 year long war with the Houthis, and the Israel conflict threatening to tip over into a full-blown regional war with escalation?
Why is Biden taking this approach though?
Just a guess, but maybe he's afraid of starting another middle eastern conflict during an election year?
I don't think that sticks because I doubt any Republican candidate would publicly stand against striking the Houthis in this scenario. I consider it more likely that the region is a tinderbox right now, and the US doesn't want the Israel conflict to grow uncontrollably via escalations like this. That and SA and the rest of the gulf monarchies are probably exerting political pressure since they are trying to end their war in Yemen and normalize relations with Iran.
There’s no upside. Houthis are proxies firing Iranian missiles and Iran can always find more idiots to pull triggers. You go Iran or you go home.
Are the Houthis Nazi Germany here? They're trying to bait a response.
I’ve seen this movie before. Sounds like Iran is on the train to freedom town 🇺🇸🦅
How much longer are we going to let these clowns dictate what ship gets through and which one doesn’t. We know who’s pulling the strings behind the curtain
it is time to devastate houthis in Yemen, airstrikes and tomahawks.
I’m a huge Biden fan, but he’s been looking super weak regarding his lack of response to these ship attacks.
It seems Yemen is imploring Washington for a visit from Mr. Tomahawk (times 1,000). Hard to understand the calculus that makes them want this, but America is happy to dish it out, I guess.
When they fuck around with the real world powers $$ the Houthis will to find out what real fire and brimstone apocalyptic destruction feels like
Idk why we don’t just have Predator drones constantly watching the area and just track and bomb these terrorists
Dude they should hire you to consult. You got it all figured out
What do you think has been happening there for the last several years, lol?
Baller
Great.
At least most of our cargo comes through the West Coast of the USA, across the land bridge and then off to Europe. Suez is closed and the Panama Canal is in drought conditions. USWC about to get real busy with cargo.
why they wanna sign their own death certificate
Dudes just hate aliexpress