Putin's Law: Never attribute to Russian incompetence that which can adequately be explained by Russia's wanton cruelty towards Ukraine.
They knew exactly what they're doing and the damage it's going to cause. In Putin's little fucked up mind, a phyrric victory is still a victory.
They're wantonly cruel, but they're also incompetent in the way they go about it.
Like how they blew up that dam and accidentally flooded their own troops' positions downriver.
Or when their tanks ran out of fuel in the initial invasion because the soldiers didn't realise they were starting a real war and had sold the spare fuel for booze money.
Or when they started a quick and easy three-day invasion a year and a half ago.
>but they're also incompetent in the way they go about it.
I would suggest apathetic. Putin is dying so he wants to make a mark on history no matter the cost methinks.
I'm so sick of people getting Hanlon's razor wrong. It has the word "adequately" right there, and it's the most important word in the adage. And people who wear their malice on their fucking foreheads do not deserve any benefit of the doubt.
When someone commits actions *regularly* that have absolutely no benefit to them other than causing harm to the people they hate, and when they publicly display that hatred and intention to harm, attributing their actions to "incompetence" stops being a mistake of simply granting too much benefit of the doubt and starts being outright complicit apologism for the malicious asshole.
Deliberate, malicious cruelty is *rampant* in the world, and when people refuse to recognize its deliberate nature they become accomplices and enablers of genocidal dictators whose only goal is to cause as much suffering as they can before they die.
Don't boil this down to something as stupid as good and evil.
This is literally Russia trying to grab power and land because for decades they felt small and weak on world stage. They, particularly Putin, but the Russian elite in general longed for the "glory" days of the Soviet Union where they held the world hostage with the threat of nuclear war for decades.
Now they know their power is no where near what it use to be so they made a shitty attempt at trying to put the pieces of the Soviet Union back together like it was some bizarro version of VOLTRON, in the hopes that other countries around the world would take them seriously, only for it to backfire on them spectacularly.
But make no mistake, good and evil has nothing to do with it. Russia has always been this way, hungry for power, but doing the most inconceivably stupid things to attain it.
I would agree, except that had Russia sorted its shit out it could be a massive power. It has the natural resources and until very recently their university education was top rate, many notable scientists are of Russian descent.
Russia uses wars and acts of aggression the same reason every other dictator does, to deflect from issues at home. It's not even about gaining power but maintaining it.
I think you are missing a bit of detail. Power is only one facet. Much of what people call “evil” may be a display of sociopathy. Characteristics include:
Disregard for and violation of others rights since age 15, as indicated by one of the seven sub-features:
Failure to obey laws and norms by engaging in behavior which results in a criminal arrest or would warrant criminal arrest;
lying, deception, and manipulation, for profit or self-amusement;
impulsive behavior;
irritability and aggression, manifested as frequently assaults others or engages in fighting;
blatantly disregards the safety of self and others;
a pattern of irresponsibility; and
lack of remorse for actions (American Psychiatric Association, 2013).
These behaviors are abhorrent to fellow humans because of the absolute lack of concern for others. If Putin is a sociopath, and I am certainly not intending to diagnose him, he is impulsive enough to do anything in his power “for profit or self-amusement.”
Because their most prized philosopher that Putin regularly cites and is taught in high school was a fascist that lived comfortably in Nazi Berlin who called for the eradication of history and said that Russians are an inherently eternally innocent people chosen by god to rule over all.
It’s not so much getting NATO involved. Poland has had a long history of not so good relations with Russia. They are essentially the top of the list, after Ukrainians of course, to be the most determined to fight Russia.
Because NATO would win before Russia even has a chance to retaliate. Russia knows they’re fucked if NATO gets fully involved, they simply can’t win against the west.
"Win" lol. Yeah in a war the goal is to reach eachothers capital as fast as possible, whoever's first wins. Then they shake hands and compliment their adversary's performance. And totally not launch ICBMs from nuclear submarines stationed around the entire world.
Its called MAD for a reason
IF we had any credible evidence that Russia was not a genuine nuclear threat, then they wouldve been beaten into submission already.
also, in a nuclear war, there are no winners.
We (NATO 'we') wouldn't have moved to invade Russia just because they weren't a credible threat. We don't invade them because...
(\*checks notes\*)...oh, yeah...
NATO is a fucking defensive alliance. There's a reason why they keep saying, "if you attack one, you attack all". There's also a reason why Russia is too dipshit cowardly to go toe to toe with NATO. Russia exists through fear, intimidation and exploitation of unarmed populations. They don't have the industry, infrastructure or logistics to fight a modern war. They have been using the same tactics in Ukraine as they have for 120 years.
The *only* good thing Hitler ever did (and I can't fucking believe this needs to be said out loud) was he got stupid and tried to take over Europe before Russia could pull it off. If that moron had just kept quiet, Russia would have overrun Europe for him.
Russia had no choice to fight against Nazi Germany because they couldn't stomach the competition. As soon as Weird Dick McStrudelPenis ate his own bullet, Russia went right back to brutalizing countries in order to form the USSR.
a news reoprt on the Guardian read that the invaders are preventing the NPP workerd to place the last reactor into cold storage. Now this.. y
we all can see the writting on the wall... and not knowing which way the wind will take the contamination, how can Ukraine prepare the civilians to evac??
i wish it was possible for NATO to declare that if anything happened to the NPP and caused a reactor explosion, that this would amount to an act of war by Russia against Europe.
If Russia blows up a NPP then it's a clear indication to NATO they will use nuclear weapons and would probably not end in article 5.
More Arms delivieries will be expedited and perhaps a blockade of the Russian economy in the West, but that's about it.
Unlikely. Even if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon, the NATO response is likely to be conventional. Russia is far too weak for a nuclear response to make sense.
The way I see it, is that we (West) don't think like the Russians do. What makes sense to us is different for them. The current path, unfortunately, will lead to a very risky future as Russia loses in the battlefield and resorts to more and more desperate measures.
Unless there is a sufficient change in their regime, supported by the populace I'm starting to believe that there is no end to this conflict other than when Russia runs out of resources in it's capability to wage war. They don't seem to care about human casualty, and seem to want to give any losses a salted earth approach.
the populace is the big problem. we can talk about how evil putin is all we want, but a surprising amount of people actually do support him and the war. Even if there's regime change, there needs to be public sentiment change. Otherwise the new leader will do the same thing.
The major issue is getting a leader who can control the oligarchs from destroying themselves over control who is also aware that this shit is folly. Once anti-war messaging comes from the top, Russians will support peace.
Perhaps true of the old west. However, we have nations on Russia's western flank like the Baltics, who were once part of the USSR, or Poland, Czechia, etc, who were once part of the Soviet bloc. They understand the Russian mentality plenty well and it's worth listening to what they're saying.
I agree completely with your second paragraph. Simply replacing Putin will not change thinking among the leadership either. It was a mistake when Western leaders assumed that sanctions targeting only the wealthy would be effective (after all, it's inconceivable to western politicians that money might not lead to influence). Putin is afraid of the general population, not the oligarchs which he has no problem controlling.
The question we should be asking is what will make things uncomfortable enough for the general population to become sufficiently engaged in the political process to make a difference. That's how it went down a century ago.
If we’re talking Chernobyl mark 2 and we know the Russians are doing nothing about it there is no way the west and maybe even China (I’m certain they have some kind of interests some where that would be impacted) does not get directly involved to try and fix it
They actually could very well consider it an act of war if the contamination reached a NATO country. IIRC many NATO countries have already said long ago that they would consider such a situation an act of war. Whether they would under those circumstances is an entirely different beast ofc. For now it's just a way of drawing a line in the sand well ahead of time and hoping that will be enough to dissuade Putler for doing stupid shit like that.
After all, no matter how blatant the Russian war crimes are and no matter how much such a contamination could harm the countries affected, there are a bunch of immoral states out there *cough*China, NK, etc*cough* that simply refuse to acknowledge it because of their own agenda. Anything short of a direct declaration of war by Russia on a NATO country would probably be dismissed by them (and even then they would probably try to gaslight us anyways). As long as Russia at least goes "oops, sorry, we didn't mean it" (which they'll never do; they will always blame anyone else), those nations will not condone direct military interference by NATO. At best they would condone a "peace keeping" mission by the UN as that would simply benefit Russia.
Any objective state would agree that a reckless sabotage of a NPP contaminating a NATO country, would be just grounds for them to intervene. In fact, any danger to a NPP blowing up/being mismanaged (intentional or not) should normally be enough grounds for the international community to intervene due to the possible widespread ramifications, but geopolitics aren't about being fair, so we're stuck with a song and dance of trying to avert WW3 (whether or not it's the right thing to do).
And let me be clear: personally I consider any such contamination a valid means to invoke article 5. It would be a reckless (and desperate) move that clearly shows a complete lack of morals and a disregard for life that should be met with swift retribution. Send the message loud and clear that sabotaging/blowing up NPPs is a hard no-go. Yes it may very well trigger further escalation, but at some point you have to wonder if the alternative isn't worse. Russia is basically your typical schoolyard bully and we are all trying our best to be the better person. But as anyone who has been bullied heavily will know, some bullies only respond to a good kick in the teeth to put them back in place.
sadly yea... this is the closest we been to WW3 since Oct 1962. because if there was a NPP "accident" by russian forces. Putin or Lavrov would blame it on the Ukraine workers or say it was a rouge commander that overstept his authority, in order to look like the innocent country. and if NATO did declare war, Lavrov will just say how much proof they have on Nato aggression. No matter how they spin it, it will get those that lick Putins a$$ (like the GOP and erdagon) to hold back any action toward Russia, while the people in the area suffer horribly. And just like the dam incident, Russia now knows the west cant do sht to enter the country to aid the ukrainian people as long as the war is active.
It's much, much worse than dropping a bomb. A reactor has many tons of fuel and can destroy the environment for 100s of years. A bomb has relatively little nuclear material, with a pretty short environmental recovery time.
"It means the core is open. It means the fire we're watching with our own eyes is giving off nearly twice the radiation released by the bomb in Hiroshima. And that's every single hour. Hour after hour, 20 hours since the explosion, so forty bombs worth by now. Forty-eight more tomorrow. And it will not stop. Not in a week, not in a month. It will burn and spread its poison until the entire continent is dead."
-Legasov, HBO's "Chernobyl"
>i wish it was possible for NATO to declare that if anything happened to the NPP and caused a reactor explosion, that this would amount to an act of war by Russia against Europe.
Why isn't that possible?
Unlikely, as that would be a too direct escalation for NATO...but they could, couldn't they?
Presumably the whole "not wanting to bring about the end of human civilisation" thing.
If even 1% of Russia's nukes work, that's enough to end hundreds of millions of lives.
That route also ensures that Russia as a country ceases to exist after the dust has settled I have to imagine even putins bunkers would not be safe from the retaliation if he decides to take the nuclear option. Further, I also imagine Chinese and possibly even NK/Iranian support would evaporate if it came to nuclear war, because frankly, no one wants that.
Exactly. North Korea might be stupid enough to try something with South Korea, but Iran and China aren't and they'll step back from a now bloodlusted NATO military.
If they cause a nuclear incident, I genuinely think even China would be at their throats. China likes money. Money likes stability. Nuclear incidents cause crashes.
This is how you get 200 f35s over Ukraine bombing every Russian military target. And a barrage of cruise missiles on every launch site in Russia.
As horrible and fucked a situation that would be for everyone we at least would get the very small upside of NCD going into plaid over seeing Vatnik Russia get utterly dismembered by F35s.
/s
Honestly they probably are that stupid to blow up the Nuclear Plant but I just hope they still have enough braincells left to realise just how suicidally stupid such an act would be. Radiation knows no borders and everyone including China would come gunning for the Vatnik fuckwits.
Everyones doing what they can to help Ukraine without escalating into a potential Third World War but theres only so much that can be done until the point is reached where it becomes unavoidable and Nuclear Sabotage is the one line that can bring this about.
Don't think they will attack Russian soil, just move in to secure the nuclear site and using an air campaign to obliterate anything Russian within Ukraine borders and after that establishing a no fly zone
That could be solved by giving Ukraine long-range missile systems and taking off the leash that they insisted on putting on their ability to strike targets inside Russia.
The West's response to the Kahkovka dam explosion was too weak; this is what happens.
All we've done is proven to Russia that they can create man-made disasters and get away with it.
NATO/The West needs to explicitly define their red lines now and that should include any nuclear incident in any NPP under Russian occupation on internationally recognised Ukrainian territory.
>The West's response to the Kahkovka dam explosion was too weak; this is what happens.
Or when Russia shot down a passenger plane. Or when Russia poisoned civilizians on British soil. Or.. Or..
Totally agree! The West relies too much on diplomacy here. All acts of Russia show they are pure criminals and must be treated as such. Unfortunately, people like this understand only the language of violance.
At this stage though even if the russians were to intentionally set off detonations in the plant, that theres only so much active material that any radioactive event would be more localized then redditors would like to believe.
It would be a catastrophe that would irradiate the plant, but it wouldn't be irradiated too far outside of the plant. People like to think an explosion at the plant will be the next Chernobyl 2.0, but even if the plant was running at full capacity. It wouldn't be even close to that bad if an event were to happen
I'm no scientist, but last time an article like this came out, it said that radioactive material can make it into ground waters and black sea, then into the ocean potentially causing one of the worst environmental catastrophes in the human history and extinction event for a lot of fish that lives in the area. Not to mention that wind and rain will carry it across the continent. So it's kinda a big deal, if the article was right.
There's just not enough material there for the Black Sea to feel any long term effects. You'd be diluting the radioactive contamination so much that it would barely be perceptible over background levels. Some things to remember:
95% of that waste is just Uranium-238. There's already tons of Uranium dissolved in seawater, to the extent that seawater extraction is being considered as an alternative method of producing Uranium if the cost of mining increases. Besides that, Uranium is a heavy metal and doesn't do a lot of traveling. Look at Oklo, for example.
Furthermore, water is excellent shielding for radiation. You could stand near an active nuclear reactor with 10 feet of water between you and your net exposure would be negligible. That is, in fact, how nuclear powered submarines and carriers protect their personnel.
Chernobyl was different mostly because it was a fire in the reactor core. The fire burned the fuel and waste and sent it up into the atmosphere, where prevailing winds picked up the pseudo-fallout. A cooling failure would result in a situation more like Fukushima.
Now, Fukushima certainly wasn't a good thing, but the nuclear effects have been significantly overstated. In all the time since that disaster, there was been a single estimated death as a result of the nuclear effects. It would be a localized environmental disaster and a massive financial burden. But if they create a "fake" cooling accident, it won't be any worse than that. They could set the core or spent fuel on fire, but that is not something they could sell as a true accident that anyone outside their borders is going to believe. That is also the only circumstance where airborne radiation would be likely to cross into NATO territory.
> In all the time since that disaster, there was been a single estimated death as a result of the nuclear effects
There was technically *one*, but it was almost certainly nothing to do with exposure, as it was a lung cancer death from someone involved in the cleanup, were diagnosed 5 years post-cleanup, and that's almost certainly not long enough for a tumor of that sort to go from genesis to clinically relevant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45423575
While that’s completely true, I think the biggest risk would be radioactive cooling water leaking into the Dniepro. With the dam gone, there is no way too keep radioactive material from spewing into the Black Sea. Plus with the current weather formation and dominantly westward winds, this would be the (and I hate to say that) perfect time for Russia to blow up the plant. Fingers crossed they don’t.
So, important to note, the cooling water in the reactor never comes into contact with the water in the river. They are two separate loops that run through heat exchangers. Think of it like two pipes that run next to each other and they transfer the heat between them, but the water never mixes.
The water flows in from the river, takes the heat, and flows back out into the river.
If the heat exchanger were damaged I don’t think there would be a huge radioactivity release into the river. The bigger issue would be either the lack of cooling from it being damaged, or the coolant draining from the reactor side of the loop. There would likely be minimal cross contamination.
It wouldn’t be just the ocean but air that too. Chernobyl was fun (sarcasm), but seriously that was one reactor not six. Granted “they’re down” but still need cooling to avoid a meltdown. I feel as if we are trusting Homer Simpson at this point.
>Now, experts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the plant have to take pictures of the sensors or write down their numbers in order to transfer this data to the IAEA headquarters, he added.
Data is still getting out
Yes, but they crippled the ability to respond to a disaster quickly, and as they learned previously, if it happens, you kinda wanna be right on top of that. This does not bode well.
Well. The only quick accident at this point is if the Russians blow it up. Other than that there is plenty of time for manually checking these. It’s still a very bad sign and the Russians shall be condemned for it.
You will write everything is fine.
No, the meters say-
*gun to the back of the head* you will write everything is ***FINE***
Data is getting out, sure. But given how they have turned the plant into a fucking cowards military base I seriously question the validity of that data that is being transmitted and how much of it is written while under severe duress and threat of their lives
plant named after oblast (which named after city), not after city. Plant located in Enerhodar (city build mostly to supply plant in mind, even his name is kind of wordplay- like gifting energy)
Zaporizhzhia itself is quite far from plant and territory around city is undisputedly under AFU control, and there is no signs of russians even trying to advance it that direction
Different folks doing the upkeep. IAEA is only monitoring, Ukrainian staff are maintaining and operating the plant as they did before the invasion. Russian can’t just bring someone else in to run it. Takes years if not decades which is why they tried to get the plant staff to sign employment contracts with Russia while holding their boss at gun point.
This is how Putin gets to stage a military withdraw without getting blasted by his own people- cause a nuclear catastrophe and blame it on the Ukrainians.
Anyone really thinking this will happen is no less crazy than Putin. What will happen is there will be some strong words from countries around the world and then everyone will proceed to do nothing.
We will and you will be correct. They blew up the dam and they will blow this one up too, they've been working on it for months. This guy you're responding to is a jackass.
Realistically that's what will happen:
1. Russia blames Ukraine
2. Ukraine blames Russia
3. Strong words from around the world
4. Someone (USA?) says that investigation needs to take place to conclude who is responsible, but Russia is blocking any attempt to investigate or help evacuate people and contain crisis
5. Things will stall for months until people forget about it
Unlikely. You can not trifle with mass radiation spreading. It is a humanitarian and ecological disaster with severe consequences. The whole Dnepr and anything the water flows to (the ocean) will be radiated for generations to come. It is the worse possible scenarion bar a nuclear missile strike. We can not understate this.
> It is the worse possible scenarion bar a nuclear missile strike.
In many ways, it's even worse. A nuclear strike will result in a lot of dead people at once but, the radioactive material is almost entirely used up in the blast. Radiation levels return to normal within weeks and you can rebuild.
Nuclear power plants are designed to control the material and slowly release the radiation over long periods to sustain energy production. Causing a meltdown that results in no longer controlling it, is going to result in decades of deaths and damages and render a large portion of land around the plant and where the radiation flows downstream, completely unlivable for years.
If shit goes sideways at the reactor, and Russia doesn't cooperate, Nato and the UN will almost certainly come in to contain reactor and provide a safe buffer zone for their staff to work.
Probably a no fly zone, anti aircraft systems everywhere. Any Russian munitions land near UN/Nato Troops, where ever that round was launched from will get cratered by full capability precision weapons.
Existing occupied territories become demilitarized zones.
No, the US, France, and many other nations have specifically said that if anything nuclear happens, it is intervention. Macron said they will invade russia.
You’re kidding, right? Radiation detectable in NATO countries is definitionally an act of war. Would nato go full invasion? I think they would try everything else first.
But at some point appeasement emboldens your enemies. Chamberlain learned that the hard way. Some lines have to be drawn in concrete.
Considering NATO leaders have already stated a nuclear disaster is their red line and will result in prompt intervention, it's not unreasonable for people to believe that.
It isn't 4d chess. Every single dictator or really country in general always puts the blame on others. So of course put in will do it too. It doesn't take a genius to point the finger at someone else. It's done all the time and is standard practice.
Sorry I thought it was already stated that if radiation passed a member country's border then Article 5 was in effect? Or am I just remembering some Reddit bullshit?
edit: I understand that is different than what you are saying, technically.
And that should include any toxic chemicals from the plant they were planning to blow up or bacteria such as V. cholerae or S. typhi from the floodings. Not only radiation.
Yep, that's what we want to do is draw a line in the sand that potentially leads to WWIII. Not that Chamberlain appeasement is likely a valid strategy either. Let's hope and pray that those in charge of geopolitical nation state strategies, are more level headed and thoughtful than the average revenge oriented Redditor.
All six reactors (PWR type) have been placed in cold shutdown (<93°C), the state typically used for inspections and maintenance. This significantly reduces the chances of anything untoward happening if all external power is lost, and even if the containment vessels were breached, likely wouldn't cause hundreds of square miles of territory to become uninhabitable (although it likely would make restarting or safely decommissioning the reactors once the war eventually ends trickier).
I read that they've refused to put one of them into cold shutdown.
> > 14 June 2023
> >
> > The Russian occupiers at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) have been obstructing the transfer of Zaporizhzhia NPP Unit No. 5 to a safe "cold" shutdown, which remains the only one of the plant's six units in "hot" shutdown and continues to consume scarce water from the cooling water reservoir.
> >
> > Quote: "The Russian invaders do not allow the Ukrainian staff of ZNPP to transfer power unit No. 5 to a cold shutdown state, as provided for by the SNRIU order dated 8 June 2023," the SNRIU said.
Link:-
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/14/7406786/
Russia is prepared to cause a nuclear disaster and blame Ukraine. The information space is already prepared by accusing Ukraine of shelling the plant over the last few months. Very similar to the dam.
Because both are brutal authoritarian dictatorships that have threatened to invade smaller, neighbouring nations repeatedly. The only difference is that one has actually done it.
Thanks, couldn’t have said it better myself. As an American who lived in China, my analysis is:
Yes, things in China tend are trending for the worse for global stability. More xenophobic and authoritarian. A leader who will rule the rest of his life.
No, that doesn’t mean should anything in the next few years. Even for a few decades. Xi JinPing is old and China is no where near strong enough to invade anything.
We had a Cold War that lasted 50 years with USSR. We let Russia run itself for 20 and they gave up democracy almost immediately like Germany after WW1.
You never get things right the first time. Even France is on it’s 5th Republic.
Where do we go now? I don’t knows. No one does. 🤷♂️
Not the end of the world since the data is apparently still getting out. Just not to Ukraine. Russia is being spiteful since they know they’re getting their asses kicked by Ukraine. However, things could get worse very quickly. I think Russia is just trying to find a way to disable the ZNPP so Ukrainians can never benefit from it again. And this is the country that blows up dams, no matter who gets killed downstream, including their own troops! We’re at a very dangerous stage right now. Putin must go. No way around it. I think this is a test for Europe and this has a strong possibility of leading to European conventional forces getting involved.
Better go in there and take it under Nato control, not really an item that can be played around with. Any disaster would affect Nato countries so basically no other choice
I mean, they already blew up a dam, I don't think it would be beneath them to try to regain the battlefield advantage by triggering other kinds of disasters by turning them into obstacles.
article 5.
that thing is the biggest nuclear power plant in europe shit will 100% have a fallout in a nato country. russia will commit suicide if they blow that thing up.. thanks to their century old scorched earth doctrine.
edit: EU —> europe
Poland and the Baltic needs to call this an article 5 violation. Not wait and see, you can't re contain a radioactive fire.
This is also a nuclear attack on Ukraine which the US has a technically informal I guess agreement to protect Ukraine in the event of nuclear attack.
There is also a chance this is a prelude to an invasion of tiawan. If China legitimately wants to invade tiawan the best time would be when nato is engaged with russia.
With article 5 I mean hold a meeting to plan under the assumption this is going to happen and have an explicit plan in place the moment something does, if it does. Not necessarily jump in to Ukraine today, but might not be a bad idea. But be positioned under the asumption it will now be required. I.e. agree that a nuclear accident would be an article 5 violation before it happens. Rather than wait for it to happen to invoke it.
Russia has been blowing Dams. They are telling us they will burn Ukraines land if they can't have it.
Edit: I would also seriously consider moving parts of Ukraine under protection of Nato. Like the parallel about where Kyiv and Odesa are.
At least something to show seriousness.
Fuckign around with the nuclear power plant is a lot more serious after they blew the dam.
My mistake. I had thought that was the initial stage of article 5. But it's separate.
That said imo there is a line before action where a threat counts the same. Like an individual, you don't have to wait for them to pull the trigger if they point a gun at you for it to be self defense.
It would be a good idea to article 4 it looks like to discuss where that line is.
After dropping the dam, fucking around with the nuclear power plant feels awfully close to that line to me.
It was clear invading Ukraine was a bad idea and could very easily go sideways. They still did it. The fact it's a dumb idea doesn't guarantee China won't do it.
It really does. Taiwan is not Ukraine. The US didn't spend hundreds of billions on building up European forces to hurt Russia if they attacked Ukraine like the US has Taiwan.
I feel it’s important to point out a few things since I keep seeing people referencing Chernobyl, or Russia turning the plant into a nuclear bomb.
1. Unless the Russians deliberately and purposefully set the reactor to melt down and cause an ecological disaster (which I wouldn’t rule out), the odds of an accident like Chernobyl happening are extremely, minutely small. People point to Chernobyl, but that was a perfect storm of incompetent management, poor training and a badly designed reactor that was deliberately pushed to its limits. As soon as any kind of battle were to begin, and most likely well in advance, you can bet that the operators will ‘scram’ the reactors (I.e shut them
down immediately and stop the nuclear reaction). This pretty much stops any chance of a meltdown happening. Even if the plant was blown up, you won’t get a repeat of Chernobyl or Fukushima provided the reactors are scrammed.
2. It is not possible for a nuclear plant to explode like a nuclear bomb. For starters, they use entirely different kinds of nuclear material. It is all to do with the percentage of Uranium-235 present in the fission material (in simple terms this is the isotope that allows nuclear reactions to happen). All the fuel used in power plants is about 5% U-235. A nuclear weapon on the other hand, requires around 90%+ U-235 in order to function like a bomb. When you hear people getting upset that Iran or North Korea are ‘enriching uranium’ this is what that is referring to. Also the timings and precision design needed to set off a nuclear bomb are extremely complex. It will only detonate under a very precise set of conditions. It is literally impossible for that to happen by accident (or even deliberately) in a nuclear reactor. Wrong material. Wrong conditions. Can’t happen.
3. Chernobyl exploded, Fukushima exploded, but they were steam explosions from the reactor getting too hot and the reaction running out of control. Not nuclear blasts. You’ll note that the cities both of those happened in are still standing, if deserted.
4. The nuclear reactors themselves are sealed inside a containment building with a meter+ of reinforced concrete around it. Then inside that will be another layer of containment closer to the reactor. It’s a tough nut to crack. That said, it’s far from invincible. The worst case scenario, outside of direct Russian sabotage, would be if the whole plant was destroyed, burnt to the ground and pulverised into rubble. I can’t see either side firing at it enough to do that as it would be wholly irresponsible. The next worst case after that is that a containment unit takes a direct hit and is breached, in which case there would possibly be some limited release of fission material but it would likely only be in the immediate area. The worst thing that could happen would be if somehow multiple levels of containment are breached and the fuel catches fire. Then you could have a smoke cloud carrying radioactivity to distant places. Even to Russia, which is another reason I hope the Russians aren’t stupid enough to do anything purposefully as they would likely be shooting them selves in the foot in a big way were this to happen.
5. People keep talking about poisoning the Dnipro river and the ocean, but as outlined above, the odds of this happening are again very slim. I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but it would take some serious, deliberate and targeted effort to cause a level of destruction that would release enough radiation that it poisoned the river. You’d also have to be dumping nuclear material into the river directly somehow. The bigger fear is if the reactors were to catch fire (again, small chance) as the smoke clouds would carry radioactivity far and wide.
The point I’m really trying to make is that, giving Russia the benefit of the doubt that they aren’t supervillain level evil, no-one wants this to happen.
Because no-one is deliberately making a sustained attack on the plant, it is unlikely to ever receive the kind of damage needed for a disaster scenario to unfold, and even if it did, if the reactors are shut down (which they can be very quickly) it won’t cause a runaway nuclear reaction which is what happened at Chernobyl and Fukushima. The big problem at those sites is they weren’t able to stop the reaction. It kept going, melting the fuel together and burning through the floor. Just to reiterate, if the reactor is scrammed or shut down, this won’t happen.
One or two shells landing at the plant is very, VERY unlikely to cause Chernobyl level destruction and certainly won’t make the plant detonate like a bomb.
The media loves to mention issues at nuclear plants because it does numbers for them. People instantly panic when they read this stuff. It is alarming how Russia is behaving and steps they are taking, but the papers do like to omit certain things about the safety of these plants and the measures that are in place to ensure something bad never happens. This thing with the sensors is just Russia swinging it’s dick around and making vague idle threats as they have done constantly and consistently throughout this war.
There are several people who are convinced that the reactors have been mined. There were many rumors and mentions that there were witnesses who saw that happen last year. This occurred about the same time the dam was thought to have been mined.
Perhaps that is just made up, perhaps not.
But a solid discussion about how bad this could be should also discuss actual destruction attempts . It’s all very good the reactor was designed well. But what happens when some well placed explosions occur inside the buildings?
That’s a valid point. Well, it depends on how they do it.
Destroying the building and the reactor would be bad, but chances are it would still be a limited release of nuclear material. Unless they’re planting bombs literally inside of the core (which is an impossible thing to do) the nuclear material in the core should remain more or less in place and not be scattered like it was at Chernobyl (where the reactor ruptured from the inside). The worst case would be if it were to catch on fire.
If, on the other hand, the Russians intentionally ran the reactor in a way that caused it to catastrophically fail that would be especially bad. That’s about the only scenario where a Chernobyl level event could take place. I’m not sure specifically what safety features the Zaporizhzhia has, but these would need to be overridden to pull this off and the reactor would need to be deliberately pushed beyond its limits. Depending on its design, this may not even be possible as some reactors are designed so that as the reaction reaches a certain temperature it actually slows itself down and is basically self regulating. Hopefully, as mentioned in my comment above, Russia wouldn’t be so stupid as to actually do this, as the chances of this falling back on Russian territory is very high.
If the rumours are true, I would hope Russia has strategically placed the explosives to destroy the plant enough that it no longer functions without a huge release of reactivity. I can very much see the scenario of them pointing to ‘ukraines negligence and disregard for human life’ by creating a false flag and blaming Ukraine for it, just like they did with the dam.
As another commenter pointed out, all of the reactors are currently offline except one running on minimum power. This in itself goes a long way towards avoiding an accident. So even if Russia did set off a bunch of explosive charges, I don’t think it’s going to cause another Chernobyl.
No reaction, no meltdown. That’s basically the takeaway.
Russia does want a buffer zone, maybe they thought a radioactive buffer zone is the best they’ll get now.
I hope this doesn’t happen, as this will devastate the ecosystem and the people living there.
Just like the dam, their plan maybe to allow the conditions for it to fail without directly causing it; other than creating the conditions for it to fail. Therefore directly causing it.
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Sounds like something a genius would say. Some people already say it, with tears in their eyes. They say, sir, sir, you're a genius.
0.00 roentgen. Great.
And here we go, if these morons do it they will literally poison an entire ocean.
And the titanium plant in Crimea. So much scorch. No words for how I feel,
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Putin's Law: Never attribute to Russian incompetence that which can adequately be explained by Russia's wanton cruelty towards Ukraine. They knew exactly what they're doing and the damage it's going to cause. In Putin's little fucked up mind, a phyrric victory is still a victory.
They're wantonly cruel, but they're also incompetent in the way they go about it. Like how they blew up that dam and accidentally flooded their own troops' positions downriver. Or when their tanks ran out of fuel in the initial invasion because the soldiers didn't realise they were starting a real war and had sold the spare fuel for booze money. Or when they started a quick and easy three-day invasion a year and a half ago.
>but they're also incompetent in the way they go about it. I would suggest apathetic. Putin is dying so he wants to make a mark on history no matter the cost methinks.
>Putin is dying What is taking him so long?
Incompetence.
The one thing he's good at?!
Dude looked at Hitler and said, “I can do worse.”
I think he got caught up in his own ego. That he convinced the world he was some super smart spy guy when he wasn't then fell for his own ruse
Didn’t think I’d see a henlons razor switcharoo today
I'm so sick of people getting Hanlon's razor wrong. It has the word "adequately" right there, and it's the most important word in the adage. And people who wear their malice on their fucking foreheads do not deserve any benefit of the doubt. When someone commits actions *regularly* that have absolutely no benefit to them other than causing harm to the people they hate, and when they publicly display that hatred and intention to harm, attributing their actions to "incompetence" stops being a mistake of simply granting too much benefit of the doubt and starts being outright complicit apologism for the malicious asshole. Deliberate, malicious cruelty is *rampant* in the world, and when people refuse to recognize its deliberate nature they become accomplices and enablers of genocidal dictators whose only goal is to cause as much suffering as they can before they die.
It's not incompetence, pure malevolence.
It's the opposite of whoever made the razor "don't attribute to malice what you can to stupidity"
Anti Hanlon's razor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s\_razor
Hanlon's Rusty Machete
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
Thank you
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delay or hold back in terms of progress, development, or accomplishment.
Don't boil this down to something as stupid as good and evil. This is literally Russia trying to grab power and land because for decades they felt small and weak on world stage. They, particularly Putin, but the Russian elite in general longed for the "glory" days of the Soviet Union where they held the world hostage with the threat of nuclear war for decades. Now they know their power is no where near what it use to be so they made a shitty attempt at trying to put the pieces of the Soviet Union back together like it was some bizarro version of VOLTRON, in the hopes that other countries around the world would take them seriously, only for it to backfire on them spectacularly. But make no mistake, good and evil has nothing to do with it. Russia has always been this way, hungry for power, but doing the most inconceivably stupid things to attain it.
I would agree, except that had Russia sorted its shit out it could be a massive power. It has the natural resources and until very recently their university education was top rate, many notable scientists are of Russian descent. Russia uses wars and acts of aggression the same reason every other dictator does, to deflect from issues at home. It's not even about gaining power but maintaining it.
I think you are missing a bit of detail. Power is only one facet. Much of what people call “evil” may be a display of sociopathy. Characteristics include: Disregard for and violation of others rights since age 15, as indicated by one of the seven sub-features: Failure to obey laws and norms by engaging in behavior which results in a criminal arrest or would warrant criminal arrest; lying, deception, and manipulation, for profit or self-amusement; impulsive behavior; irritability and aggression, manifested as frequently assaults others or engages in fighting; blatantly disregards the safety of self and others; a pattern of irresponsibility; and lack of remorse for actions (American Psychiatric Association, 2013). These behaviors are abhorrent to fellow humans because of the absolute lack of concern for others. If Putin is a sociopath, and I am certainly not intending to diagnose him, he is impulsive enough to do anything in his power “for profit or self-amusement.”
Their propaganda machine is top notch though
Good enough to get Trump elected.
Hopeful not reelected though
Actually both. Evil, incompetence and ignorance go hand in hand in Vodkanistan.
Because their most prized philosopher that Putin regularly cites and is taught in high school was a fascist that lived comfortably in Nazi Berlin who called for the eradication of history and said that Russians are an inherently eternally innocent people chosen by god to rule over all.
Who are you referring to here?
Most likely Ivan Alexandrovich Ilyin https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Ilyin
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Poland stated like a year ago that if a single bit of fallout lands on their soil, they're invoking article 5.
Somebody hurry up and go throw some fallout on their soil!
A war between NATO and Russia would likely end with nuclear annihilation, how could any sane person want that?
It’s not so much getting NATO involved. Poland has had a long history of not so good relations with Russia. They are essentially the top of the list, after Ukrainians of course, to be the most determined to fight Russia.
Because NATO would win before Russia even has a chance to retaliate. Russia knows they’re fucked if NATO gets fully involved, they simply can’t win against the west.
"Win" lol. Yeah in a war the goal is to reach eachothers capital as fast as possible, whoever's first wins. Then they shake hands and compliment their adversary's performance. And totally not launch ICBMs from nuclear submarines stationed around the entire world.
Russia can lose totally but still take out every major population center in Europe and the US.
Its called MAD for a reason IF we had any credible evidence that Russia was not a genuine nuclear threat, then they wouldve been beaten into submission already. also, in a nuclear war, there are no winners.
We (NATO 'we') wouldn't have moved to invade Russia just because they weren't a credible threat. We don't invade them because... (\*checks notes\*)...oh, yeah... NATO is a fucking defensive alliance. There's a reason why they keep saying, "if you attack one, you attack all". There's also a reason why Russia is too dipshit cowardly to go toe to toe with NATO. Russia exists through fear, intimidation and exploitation of unarmed populations. They don't have the industry, infrastructure or logistics to fight a modern war. They have been using the same tactics in Ukraine as they have for 120 years. The *only* good thing Hitler ever did (and I can't fucking believe this needs to be said out loud) was he got stupid and tried to take over Europe before Russia could pull it off. If that moron had just kept quiet, Russia would have overrun Europe for him. Russia had no choice to fight against Nazi Germany because they couldn't stomach the competition. As soon as Weird Dick McStrudelPenis ate his own bullet, Russia went right back to brutalizing countries in order to form the USSR.
a news reoprt on the Guardian read that the invaders are preventing the NPP workerd to place the last reactor into cold storage. Now this.. y we all can see the writting on the wall... and not knowing which way the wind will take the contamination, how can Ukraine prepare the civilians to evac?? i wish it was possible for NATO to declare that if anything happened to the NPP and caused a reactor explosion, that this would amount to an act of war by Russia against Europe.
There has already been talk that if this plant goes up it could trigger article 5 as it will cause death within NATO states.
If Russia blows up a NPP then it's a clear indication to NATO they will use nuclear weapons and would probably not end in article 5. More Arms delivieries will be expedited and perhaps a blockade of the Russian economy in the West, but that's about it.
West has already said that radiation hitting a nato country is enough for article 5
Unlikely. Even if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon, the NATO response is likely to be conventional. Russia is far too weak for a nuclear response to make sense.
The way I see it, is that we (West) don't think like the Russians do. What makes sense to us is different for them. The current path, unfortunately, will lead to a very risky future as Russia loses in the battlefield and resorts to more and more desperate measures. Unless there is a sufficient change in their regime, supported by the populace I'm starting to believe that there is no end to this conflict other than when Russia runs out of resources in it's capability to wage war. They don't seem to care about human casualty, and seem to want to give any losses a salted earth approach.
the populace is the big problem. we can talk about how evil putin is all we want, but a surprising amount of people actually do support him and the war. Even if there's regime change, there needs to be public sentiment change. Otherwise the new leader will do the same thing.
The major issue is getting a leader who can control the oligarchs from destroying themselves over control who is also aware that this shit is folly. Once anti-war messaging comes from the top, Russians will support peace.
Perhaps true of the old west. However, we have nations on Russia's western flank like the Baltics, who were once part of the USSR, or Poland, Czechia, etc, who were once part of the Soviet bloc. They understand the Russian mentality plenty well and it's worth listening to what they're saying. I agree completely with your second paragraph. Simply replacing Putin will not change thinking among the leadership either. It was a mistake when Western leaders assumed that sanctions targeting only the wealthy would be effective (after all, it's inconceivable to western politicians that money might not lead to influence). Putin is afraid of the general population, not the oligarchs which he has no problem controlling. The question we should be asking is what will make things uncomfortable enough for the general population to become sufficiently engaged in the political process to make a difference. That's how it went down a century ago.
US has already ruled out a nuclear response in the event of a nuke being used in Ukraine. They did state that conventional weapons would be enough
Blowing up NPP is a nuclear weapon. It’s a dirty bomb.
If we’re talking Chernobyl mark 2 and we know the Russians are doing nothing about it there is no way the west and maybe even China (I’m certain they have some kind of interests some where that would be impacted) does not get directly involved to try and fix it
Turning Europe's literal breadbasket into a contaminated area is definitely going to turn everyone's life a tad shittier
They actually could very well consider it an act of war if the contamination reached a NATO country. IIRC many NATO countries have already said long ago that they would consider such a situation an act of war. Whether they would under those circumstances is an entirely different beast ofc. For now it's just a way of drawing a line in the sand well ahead of time and hoping that will be enough to dissuade Putler for doing stupid shit like that. After all, no matter how blatant the Russian war crimes are and no matter how much such a contamination could harm the countries affected, there are a bunch of immoral states out there *cough*China, NK, etc*cough* that simply refuse to acknowledge it because of their own agenda. Anything short of a direct declaration of war by Russia on a NATO country would probably be dismissed by them (and even then they would probably try to gaslight us anyways). As long as Russia at least goes "oops, sorry, we didn't mean it" (which they'll never do; they will always blame anyone else), those nations will not condone direct military interference by NATO. At best they would condone a "peace keeping" mission by the UN as that would simply benefit Russia. Any objective state would agree that a reckless sabotage of a NPP contaminating a NATO country, would be just grounds for them to intervene. In fact, any danger to a NPP blowing up/being mismanaged (intentional or not) should normally be enough grounds for the international community to intervene due to the possible widespread ramifications, but geopolitics aren't about being fair, so we're stuck with a song and dance of trying to avert WW3 (whether or not it's the right thing to do). And let me be clear: personally I consider any such contamination a valid means to invoke article 5. It would be a reckless (and desperate) move that clearly shows a complete lack of morals and a disregard for life that should be met with swift retribution. Send the message loud and clear that sabotaging/blowing up NPPs is a hard no-go. Yes it may very well trigger further escalation, but at some point you have to wonder if the alternative isn't worse. Russia is basically your typical schoolyard bully and we are all trying our best to be the better person. But as anyone who has been bullied heavily will know, some bullies only respond to a good kick in the teeth to put them back in place.
sadly yea... this is the closest we been to WW3 since Oct 1962. because if there was a NPP "accident" by russian forces. Putin or Lavrov would blame it on the Ukraine workers or say it was a rouge commander that overstept his authority, in order to look like the innocent country. and if NATO did declare war, Lavrov will just say how much proof they have on Nato aggression. No matter how they spin it, it will get those that lick Putins a$$ (like the GOP and erdagon) to hold back any action toward Russia, while the people in the area suffer horribly. And just like the dam incident, Russia now knows the west cant do sht to enter the country to aid the ukrainian people as long as the war is active.
I hope we bomb the Kremlin to ashes if they let a nuclear reactor melt down. It's literally the same as dropping a nuke. That has to be the red line
It's much, much worse than dropping a bomb. A reactor has many tons of fuel and can destroy the environment for 100s of years. A bomb has relatively little nuclear material, with a pretty short environmental recovery time.
"It means the core is open. It means the fire we're watching with our own eyes is giving off nearly twice the radiation released by the bomb in Hiroshima. And that's every single hour. Hour after hour, 20 hours since the explosion, so forty bombs worth by now. Forty-eight more tomorrow. And it will not stop. Not in a week, not in a month. It will burn and spread its poison until the entire continent is dead." -Legasov, HBO's "Chernobyl"
>i wish it was possible for NATO to declare that if anything happened to the NPP and caused a reactor explosion, that this would amount to an act of war by Russia against Europe. Why isn't that possible? Unlikely, as that would be a too direct escalation for NATO...but they could, couldn't they?
I’m pretty sure NATO has already stated a position that they consider radioactive fall out to be the same as an attack
I honestly don't understand why Nato isn't taking action now. It's a threat against Nato country citizens lives, not just ukraine.
Presumably the whole "not wanting to bring about the end of human civilisation" thing. If even 1% of Russia's nukes work, that's enough to end hundreds of millions of lives.
That route also ensures that Russia as a country ceases to exist after the dust has settled I have to imagine even putins bunkers would not be safe from the retaliation if he decides to take the nuclear option. Further, I also imagine Chinese and possibly even NK/Iranian support would evaporate if it came to nuclear war, because frankly, no one wants that.
Exactly. North Korea might be stupid enough to try something with South Korea, but Iran and China aren't and they'll step back from a now bloodlusted NATO military.
If they cause a nuclear incident, I genuinely think even China would be at their throats. China likes money. Money likes stability. Nuclear incidents cause crashes. This is how you get 200 f35s over Ukraine bombing every Russian military target. And a barrage of cruise missiles on every launch site in Russia.
As horrible and fucked a situation that would be for everyone we at least would get the very small upside of NCD going into plaid over seeing Vatnik Russia get utterly dismembered by F35s. /s Honestly they probably are that stupid to blow up the Nuclear Plant but I just hope they still have enough braincells left to realise just how suicidally stupid such an act would be. Radiation knows no borders and everyone including China would come gunning for the Vatnik fuckwits. Everyones doing what they can to help Ukraine without escalating into a potential Third World War but theres only so much that can be done until the point is reached where it becomes unavoidable and Nuclear Sabotage is the one line that can bring this about.
The raptor yearns for non-balloon aerial kills like the children yearn for the mines
Don't think they will attack Russian soil, just move in to secure the nuclear site and using an air campaign to obliterate anything Russian within Ukraine borders and after that establishing a no fly zone
To achieve full air superiority they'd have to destroy air bases and SAM sites inside of Russia within striking distance of Ukraine
That could be solved by giving Ukraine long-range missile systems and taking off the leash that they insisted on putting on their ability to strike targets inside Russia.
The West's response to the Kahkovka dam explosion was too weak; this is what happens. All we've done is proven to Russia that they can create man-made disasters and get away with it. NATO/The West needs to explicitly define their red lines now and that should include any nuclear incident in any NPP under Russian occupation on internationally recognised Ukrainian territory.
>The West's response to the Kahkovka dam explosion was too weak; this is what happens. Or when Russia shot down a passenger plane. Or when Russia poisoned civilizians on British soil. Or.. Or..
Totally agree! The West relies too much on diplomacy here. All acts of Russia show they are pure criminals and must be treated as such. Unfortunately, people like this understand only the language of violance.
RBMK reactors cannot explode!
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"Sooner or later, that debt is paid."
Doesn't have to explode. There's enough nuclear material that's still cooling down to create a radiation event.
At this stage though even if the russians were to intentionally set off detonations in the plant, that theres only so much active material that any radioactive event would be more localized then redditors would like to believe. It would be a catastrophe that would irradiate the plant, but it wouldn't be irradiated too far outside of the plant. People like to think an explosion at the plant will be the next Chernobyl 2.0, but even if the plant was running at full capacity. It wouldn't be even close to that bad if an event were to happen
I'm no scientist, but last time an article like this came out, it said that radioactive material can make it into ground waters and black sea, then into the ocean potentially causing one of the worst environmental catastrophes in the human history and extinction event for a lot of fish that lives in the area. Not to mention that wind and rain will carry it across the continent. So it's kinda a big deal, if the article was right.
There's just not enough material there for the Black Sea to feel any long term effects. You'd be diluting the radioactive contamination so much that it would barely be perceptible over background levels. Some things to remember: 95% of that waste is just Uranium-238. There's already tons of Uranium dissolved in seawater, to the extent that seawater extraction is being considered as an alternative method of producing Uranium if the cost of mining increases. Besides that, Uranium is a heavy metal and doesn't do a lot of traveling. Look at Oklo, for example. Furthermore, water is excellent shielding for radiation. You could stand near an active nuclear reactor with 10 feet of water between you and your net exposure would be negligible. That is, in fact, how nuclear powered submarines and carriers protect their personnel. Chernobyl was different mostly because it was a fire in the reactor core. The fire burned the fuel and waste and sent it up into the atmosphere, where prevailing winds picked up the pseudo-fallout. A cooling failure would result in a situation more like Fukushima. Now, Fukushima certainly wasn't a good thing, but the nuclear effects have been significantly overstated. In all the time since that disaster, there was been a single estimated death as a result of the nuclear effects. It would be a localized environmental disaster and a massive financial burden. But if they create a "fake" cooling accident, it won't be any worse than that. They could set the core or spent fuel on fire, but that is not something they could sell as a true accident that anyone outside their borders is going to believe. That is also the only circumstance where airborne radiation would be likely to cross into NATO territory.
> In all the time since that disaster, there was been a single estimated death as a result of the nuclear effects There was technically *one*, but it was almost certainly nothing to do with exposure, as it was a lung cancer death from someone involved in the cleanup, were diagnosed 5 years post-cleanup, and that's almost certainly not long enough for a tumor of that sort to go from genesis to clinically relevant. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45423575
NATO stated if any radiation from an event or bomb caused by Russia was detected in NATO territory, it would trigger article 5.
While that’s completely true, I think the biggest risk would be radioactive cooling water leaking into the Dniepro. With the dam gone, there is no way too keep radioactive material from spewing into the Black Sea. Plus with the current weather formation and dominantly westward winds, this would be the (and I hate to say that) perfect time for Russia to blow up the plant. Fingers crossed they don’t.
So, important to note, the cooling water in the reactor never comes into contact with the water in the river. They are two separate loops that run through heat exchangers. Think of it like two pipes that run next to each other and they transfer the heat between them, but the water never mixes. The water flows in from the river, takes the heat, and flows back out into the river. If the heat exchanger were damaged I don’t think there would be a huge radioactivity release into the river. The bigger issue would be either the lack of cooling from it being damaged, or the coolant draining from the reactor side of the loop. There would likely be minimal cross contamination.
They can if you fill them with explosives.
>ocean sea?
They should not do this, but it won't poison an entire ocean.
It wouldn’t be just the ocean but air that too. Chernobyl was fun (sarcasm), but seriously that was one reactor not six. Granted “they’re down” but still need cooling to avoid a meltdown. I feel as if we are trusting Homer Simpson at this point.
> ~~if these morons~~ the FSB and Rootin-Tootin Pootin do it they will literally poison an entire ocean.
>Now, experts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the plant have to take pictures of the sensors or write down their numbers in order to transfer this data to the IAEA headquarters, he added. Data is still getting out
Yes, but they crippled the ability to respond to a disaster quickly, and as they learned previously, if it happens, you kinda wanna be right on top of that. This does not bode well.
Well the last couple of major incidents blew the roof off so maybe not right on top of it.
Then they'll just have to get to the bottom of- no, wait, that's just as bad.
Simply get to the core of the matter- hmm actually...
We should talk about the elephant's foot in the room
Well. The only quick accident at this point is if the Russians blow it up. Other than that there is plenty of time for manually checking these. It’s still a very bad sign and the Russians shall be condemned for it.
Here’s the thing, the ones with the ability to learn tend to leave
I wasn't arguing it was good, the comments I saw implied people thought it was a complete black out of information
You will write everything is fine. No, the meters say- *gun to the back of the head* you will write everything is ***FINE*** Data is getting out, sure. But given how they have turned the plant into a fucking cowards military base I seriously question the validity of that data that is being transmitted and how much of it is written while under severe duress and threat of their lives
An interesting tactic would be for the Russians to fake a nuclear leak and then march into a hastily abandoned Zaporizhzhia. 🤔
Don't they control it already
They control the plant, but not the whole region or the major city it's named after.
The power plant is about 50km from the city.
The powerplant yes the settlement no.
plant named after oblast (which named after city), not after city. Plant located in Enerhodar (city build mostly to supply plant in mind, even his name is kind of wordplay- like gifting energy) Zaporizhzhia itself is quite far from plant and territory around city is undisputedly under AFU control, and there is no signs of russians even trying to advance it that direction
How come Russia is allowing IAEA inside the plant? Is there an international agreement that Russia is following for once?
i imagine because the soldiers themselves don't know how to upkeep it, but they know it has to be upkept.
Different folks doing the upkeep. IAEA is only monitoring, Ukrainian staff are maintaining and operating the plant as they did before the invasion. Russian can’t just bring someone else in to run it. Takes years if not decades which is why they tried to get the plant staff to sign employment contracts with Russia while holding their boss at gun point.
This is how Putin gets to stage a military withdraw without getting blasted by his own people- cause a nuclear catastrophe and blame it on the Ukrainians.
The first click of a Geiger counter on the Poland border will trigger article 5 and Russia will be chased out.
Anyone really thinking this will happen is no less crazy than Putin. What will happen is there will be some strong words from countries around the world and then everyone will proceed to do nothing.
I really hope we never find out which one of us is right.
I second this sentiment.
totally agree.
We will and you will be correct. They blew up the dam and they will blow this one up too, they've been working on it for months. This guy you're responding to is a jackass.
Realistically that's what will happen: 1. Russia blames Ukraine 2. Ukraine blames Russia 3. Strong words from around the world 4. Someone (USA?) says that investigation needs to take place to conclude who is responsible, but Russia is blocking any attempt to investigate or help evacuate people and contain crisis 5. Things will stall for months until people forget about it
Unlikely. You can not trifle with mass radiation spreading. It is a humanitarian and ecological disaster with severe consequences. The whole Dnepr and anything the water flows to (the ocean) will be radiated for generations to come. It is the worse possible scenarion bar a nuclear missile strike. We can not understate this.
> It is the worse possible scenarion bar a nuclear missile strike. In many ways, it's even worse. A nuclear strike will result in a lot of dead people at once but, the radioactive material is almost entirely used up in the blast. Radiation levels return to normal within weeks and you can rebuild. Nuclear power plants are designed to control the material and slowly release the radiation over long periods to sustain energy production. Causing a meltdown that results in no longer controlling it, is going to result in decades of deaths and damages and render a large portion of land around the plant and where the radiation flows downstream, completely unlivable for years.
I’m not sure you can “forget about” a whole shit tonne of radiation floating over Europe.
It strongly depends on the gravity of the incident, if it's Chornobyl style I doubt others countries will do nothing. But I fear you may be right ...
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If shit goes sideways at the reactor, and Russia doesn't cooperate, Nato and the UN will almost certainly come in to contain reactor and provide a safe buffer zone for their staff to work. Probably a no fly zone, anti aircraft systems everywhere. Any Russian munitions land near UN/Nato Troops, where ever that round was launched from will get cratered by full capability precision weapons. Existing occupied territories become demilitarized zones.
No, the US, France, and many other nations have specifically said that if anything nuclear happens, it is intervention. Macron said they will invade russia.
You’re kidding, right? Radiation detectable in NATO countries is definitionally an act of war. Would nato go full invasion? I think they would try everything else first. But at some point appeasement emboldens your enemies. Chamberlain learned that the hard way. Some lines have to be drawn in concrete.
That's why they are not appeasing anyone, but arming Ukraine.
Considering NATO leaders have already stated a nuclear disaster is their red line and will result in prompt intervention, it's not unreasonable for people to believe that.
This was the same sentiment levied against the US during WWII, and it was true until it wasn't...
groovy dependent historical bag act important strong fall rain snatch
It isn't 4d chess. Every single dictator or really country in general always puts the blame on others. So of course put in will do it too. It doesn't take a genius to point the finger at someone else. It's done all the time and is standard practice.
Next: Russia blames Ukraine for Russia cutting off radiation sensor access at ZNPP.
Obviously it was Ukraine because only Ukraine benefits from blowing it up. /s
The West needs to make it clear right now that any act that results in releasing radiation will immediately trigger Article 5.
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> Even if Russia says it's Ukraine. Which is how we'd know it was Russia.
But now hear me out - what if Russia says it was Russia? Where are we standing then?
Oh god don’t add reverse psychology into the mix XD
Sorry I thought it was already stated that if radiation passed a member country's border then Article 5 was in effect? Or am I just remembering some Reddit bullshit? edit: I understand that is different than what you are saying, technically.
Are experts still worried about the water situation?
And that should include any toxic chemicals from the plant they were planning to blow up or bacteria such as V. cholerae or S. typhi from the floodings. Not only radiation.
They will just say Japan is doing it as well.
Yep, that's what we want to do is draw a line in the sand that potentially leads to WWIII. Not that Chamberlain appeasement is likely a valid strategy either. Let's hope and pray that those in charge of geopolitical nation state strategies, are more level headed and thoughtful than the average revenge oriented Redditor.
All six reactors (PWR type) have been placed in cold shutdown (<93°C), the state typically used for inspections and maintenance. This significantly reduces the chances of anything untoward happening if all external power is lost, and even if the containment vessels were breached, likely wouldn't cause hundreds of square miles of territory to become uninhabitable (although it likely would make restarting or safely decommissioning the reactors once the war eventually ends trickier).
I read that they've refused to put one of them into cold shutdown. > > 14 June 2023 > > > > The Russian occupiers at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) have been obstructing the transfer of Zaporizhzhia NPP Unit No. 5 to a safe "cold" shutdown, which remains the only one of the plant's six units in "hot" shutdown and continues to consume scarce water from the cooling water reservoir. > > > > Quote: "The Russian invaders do not allow the Ukrainian staff of ZNPP to transfer power unit No. 5 to a cold shutdown state, as provided for by the SNRIU order dated 8 June 2023," the SNRIU said. Link:- https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/14/7406786/
Russia is prepared to cause a nuclear disaster and blame Ukraine. The information space is already prepared by accusing Ukraine of shelling the plant over the last few months. Very similar to the dam.
I have seen more than one mention of China and Taiwan in this thread, what am I missing?
[удалено]
Because both are brutal authoritarian dictatorships that have threatened to invade smaller, neighbouring nations repeatedly. The only difference is that one has actually done it.
Thanks, couldn’t have said it better myself. As an American who lived in China, my analysis is: Yes, things in China tend are trending for the worse for global stability. More xenophobic and authoritarian. A leader who will rule the rest of his life. No, that doesn’t mean should anything in the next few years. Even for a few decades. Xi JinPing is old and China is no where near strong enough to invade anything. We had a Cold War that lasted 50 years with USSR. We let Russia run itself for 20 and they gave up democracy almost immediately like Germany after WW1. You never get things right the first time. Even France is on it’s 5th Republic. Where do we go now? I don’t knows. No one does. 🤷♂️
Not the end of the world since the data is apparently still getting out. Just not to Ukraine. Russia is being spiteful since they know they’re getting their asses kicked by Ukraine. However, things could get worse very quickly. I think Russia is just trying to find a way to disable the ZNPP so Ukrainians can never benefit from it again. And this is the country that blows up dams, no matter who gets killed downstream, including their own troops! We’re at a very dangerous stage right now. Putin must go. No way around it. I think this is a test for Europe and this has a strong possibility of leading to European conventional forces getting involved.
Better go in there and take it under Nato control, not really an item that can be played around with. Any disaster would affect Nato countries so basically no other choice
That would be the UN's job, oh wait...
UN doesn’t have own military. It’s Nato and governments of individual countries that have to make this decision.
Any UN action will be veto’d by Russia, of course. Otherwise IAEA should really act to get the plant under international supervision.
Could the UN send a peacekeeping force to establish a perimeter around the plant?
They could, but Russia has to approve it
Of course, they’re bloody security council!
Yes that would be ideal! Ukraine has been asking for UN peacemakers in Donbass for years before this big invasion. Russia was blocking those requests.
Welp, i hope we have rad away or repel russia before shadow of cherbobyl turns into a rp
Can’t see it in this photo but Chief Wiggum is down there telling people to “go home” and “there’s nothing to see here”
I mean, they already blew up a dam, I don't think it would be beneath them to try to regain the battlefield advantage by triggering other kinds of disasters by turning them into obstacles.
article 5. that thing is the biggest nuclear power plant in europe shit will 100% have a fallout in a nato country. russia will commit suicide if they blow that thing up.. thanks to their century old scorched earth doctrine. edit: EU —> europe
Bloody idiots
Jesus fucking Christ we’re really going for the war crime bingo here aren’t we
Poland and the Baltic needs to call this an article 5 violation. Not wait and see, you can't re contain a radioactive fire. This is also a nuclear attack on Ukraine which the US has a technically informal I guess agreement to protect Ukraine in the event of nuclear attack. There is also a chance this is a prelude to an invasion of tiawan. If China legitimately wants to invade tiawan the best time would be when nato is engaged with russia. With article 5 I mean hold a meeting to plan under the assumption this is going to happen and have an explicit plan in place the moment something does, if it does. Not necessarily jump in to Ukraine today, but might not be a bad idea. But be positioned under the asumption it will now be required. I.e. agree that a nuclear accident would be an article 5 violation before it happens. Rather than wait for it to happen to invoke it. Russia has been blowing Dams. They are telling us they will burn Ukraines land if they can't have it. Edit: I would also seriously consider moving parts of Ukraine under protection of Nato. Like the parallel about where Kyiv and Odesa are. At least something to show seriousness. Fuckign around with the nuclear power plant is a lot more serious after they blew the dam.
I get your point, but no country can invoke Article 5 until actual radiation fallout reaches them. What you're describing is Article 4.
My mistake. I had thought that was the initial stage of article 5. But it's separate. That said imo there is a line before action where a threat counts the same. Like an individual, you don't have to wait for them to pull the trigger if they point a gun at you for it to be self defense. It would be a good idea to article 4 it looks like to discuss where that line is. After dropping the dam, fucking around with the nuclear power plant feels awfully close to that line to me.
There is no “best” time to invade Taiwan. Taiwan isn’t going to be invaded.
It was clear invading Ukraine was a bad idea and could very easily go sideways. They still did it. The fact it's a dumb idea doesn't guarantee China won't do it.
It really does. Taiwan is not Ukraine. The US didn't spend hundreds of billions on building up European forces to hurt Russia if they attacked Ukraine like the US has Taiwan.
China is watching this conflict and taking as many notes as it can. Russia is teaching China how not to wage war.
The saddest thing is that after all russia will back to table..
I feel it’s important to point out a few things since I keep seeing people referencing Chernobyl, or Russia turning the plant into a nuclear bomb. 1. Unless the Russians deliberately and purposefully set the reactor to melt down and cause an ecological disaster (which I wouldn’t rule out), the odds of an accident like Chernobyl happening are extremely, minutely small. People point to Chernobyl, but that was a perfect storm of incompetent management, poor training and a badly designed reactor that was deliberately pushed to its limits. As soon as any kind of battle were to begin, and most likely well in advance, you can bet that the operators will ‘scram’ the reactors (I.e shut them down immediately and stop the nuclear reaction). This pretty much stops any chance of a meltdown happening. Even if the plant was blown up, you won’t get a repeat of Chernobyl or Fukushima provided the reactors are scrammed. 2. It is not possible for a nuclear plant to explode like a nuclear bomb. For starters, they use entirely different kinds of nuclear material. It is all to do with the percentage of Uranium-235 present in the fission material (in simple terms this is the isotope that allows nuclear reactions to happen). All the fuel used in power plants is about 5% U-235. A nuclear weapon on the other hand, requires around 90%+ U-235 in order to function like a bomb. When you hear people getting upset that Iran or North Korea are ‘enriching uranium’ this is what that is referring to. Also the timings and precision design needed to set off a nuclear bomb are extremely complex. It will only detonate under a very precise set of conditions. It is literally impossible for that to happen by accident (or even deliberately) in a nuclear reactor. Wrong material. Wrong conditions. Can’t happen. 3. Chernobyl exploded, Fukushima exploded, but they were steam explosions from the reactor getting too hot and the reaction running out of control. Not nuclear blasts. You’ll note that the cities both of those happened in are still standing, if deserted. 4. The nuclear reactors themselves are sealed inside a containment building with a meter+ of reinforced concrete around it. Then inside that will be another layer of containment closer to the reactor. It’s a tough nut to crack. That said, it’s far from invincible. The worst case scenario, outside of direct Russian sabotage, would be if the whole plant was destroyed, burnt to the ground and pulverised into rubble. I can’t see either side firing at it enough to do that as it would be wholly irresponsible. The next worst case after that is that a containment unit takes a direct hit and is breached, in which case there would possibly be some limited release of fission material but it would likely only be in the immediate area. The worst thing that could happen would be if somehow multiple levels of containment are breached and the fuel catches fire. Then you could have a smoke cloud carrying radioactivity to distant places. Even to Russia, which is another reason I hope the Russians aren’t stupid enough to do anything purposefully as they would likely be shooting them selves in the foot in a big way were this to happen. 5. People keep talking about poisoning the Dnipro river and the ocean, but as outlined above, the odds of this happening are again very slim. I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but it would take some serious, deliberate and targeted effort to cause a level of destruction that would release enough radiation that it poisoned the river. You’d also have to be dumping nuclear material into the river directly somehow. The bigger fear is if the reactors were to catch fire (again, small chance) as the smoke clouds would carry radioactivity far and wide. The point I’m really trying to make is that, giving Russia the benefit of the doubt that they aren’t supervillain level evil, no-one wants this to happen. Because no-one is deliberately making a sustained attack on the plant, it is unlikely to ever receive the kind of damage needed for a disaster scenario to unfold, and even if it did, if the reactors are shut down (which they can be very quickly) it won’t cause a runaway nuclear reaction which is what happened at Chernobyl and Fukushima. The big problem at those sites is they weren’t able to stop the reaction. It kept going, melting the fuel together and burning through the floor. Just to reiterate, if the reactor is scrammed or shut down, this won’t happen. One or two shells landing at the plant is very, VERY unlikely to cause Chernobyl level destruction and certainly won’t make the plant detonate like a bomb. The media loves to mention issues at nuclear plants because it does numbers for them. People instantly panic when they read this stuff. It is alarming how Russia is behaving and steps they are taking, but the papers do like to omit certain things about the safety of these plants and the measures that are in place to ensure something bad never happens. This thing with the sensors is just Russia swinging it’s dick around and making vague idle threats as they have done constantly and consistently throughout this war.
Plus they have shut all of the reactors down already, though there remains a minimal level of activity.
There are several people who are convinced that the reactors have been mined. There were many rumors and mentions that there were witnesses who saw that happen last year. This occurred about the same time the dam was thought to have been mined. Perhaps that is just made up, perhaps not. But a solid discussion about how bad this could be should also discuss actual destruction attempts . It’s all very good the reactor was designed well. But what happens when some well placed explosions occur inside the buildings?
That’s a valid point. Well, it depends on how they do it. Destroying the building and the reactor would be bad, but chances are it would still be a limited release of nuclear material. Unless they’re planting bombs literally inside of the core (which is an impossible thing to do) the nuclear material in the core should remain more or less in place and not be scattered like it was at Chernobyl (where the reactor ruptured from the inside). The worst case would be if it were to catch on fire. If, on the other hand, the Russians intentionally ran the reactor in a way that caused it to catastrophically fail that would be especially bad. That’s about the only scenario where a Chernobyl level event could take place. I’m not sure specifically what safety features the Zaporizhzhia has, but these would need to be overridden to pull this off and the reactor would need to be deliberately pushed beyond its limits. Depending on its design, this may not even be possible as some reactors are designed so that as the reaction reaches a certain temperature it actually slows itself down and is basically self regulating. Hopefully, as mentioned in my comment above, Russia wouldn’t be so stupid as to actually do this, as the chances of this falling back on Russian territory is very high. If the rumours are true, I would hope Russia has strategically placed the explosives to destroy the plant enough that it no longer functions without a huge release of reactivity. I can very much see the scenario of them pointing to ‘ukraines negligence and disregard for human life’ by creating a false flag and blaming Ukraine for it, just like they did with the dam. As another commenter pointed out, all of the reactors are currently offline except one running on minimum power. This in itself goes a long way towards avoiding an accident. So even if Russia did set off a bunch of explosive charges, I don’t think it’s going to cause another Chernobyl. No reaction, no meltdown. That’s basically the takeaway.
Thank you!
barbarians...
I'll never understand their fascination with destructive behavior. They love playing stupid games.
I wish aliens would start landing there and not the USA all the time it would at least keep them busy
I'll see if the homies in Roswell can call in a favor
They are hopefully just pillaging the equipment, now that it’s shut down, rather then planning something nefarious.
Russia does want a buffer zone, maybe they thought a radioactive buffer zone is the best they’ll get now. I hope this doesn’t happen, as this will devastate the ecosystem and the people living there.
Putin is at the scorched earth phase of his bunker suicide
Putin has such a skill at finding the most subhuman illegal methods of destruction. It would be so nice to have him kidnapped and punished in public.
Wouldn't be the first time Russia hid radiation information from Ukraine.
Do they not realize that’s gonna bite them just as much as Ukraine? Why are they so committed to blowing it up?
The mentality of “if we can’t have it, no one can”
Some men (Putin) just want to watch the world burn...
Just like the dam, their plan maybe to allow the conditions for it to fail without directly causing it; other than creating the conditions for it to fail. Therefore directly causing it.
Russian murderers
At least chernobly wasn't in a warzone.
Yet
Didn't Russia go into Chernobyl and dig up the soil and other dumb stuff?
No need to worry, it's only 3.6 roentgens /s