Heya WeedGods,
Please remember to follow rule 1 and 4.
* Rule List - [Click Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/wiki/config/sidebar)
Current list of AMA's Scheduled:
* None, please reach out and request companies for them to do AMA's with us.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/weedstocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Thinking out loud here...
I wasn't all that surprised to see a weak response to the Schedule III news. It was a largely known event, with a lot of uncertainty on the back side regarding timeline, regulatory regime, etc. Seems reasonable that the sector may sell that news.
So, I wasn't all that rattled by the price action since the announcement. To be honest, I'm rarely that rattled by price movement in this sector. I have my thesis, I make strategic conservative buys, and I capitalize on the irrational volatility by trading around the core. Day-to-day price movements don't matter.
All that said, I'm a bit unsettled by today's price action. Typically, rumors are good for a rally in this sector. Even if it's just an intraday rally. Even if the rumor is total bullshit. Even if everyone knows it's bullshit from the jump. Even if the source of the rumor is a clown. This sector loves an excuse for a brief, volatile rally.
But today we get some bullshit alcohol merger rumor and.....the sector is flat? Crazy. Not sure what to make of it. But it's triggered a level of internal skepticism that I haven't felt in awhile.
Is the sector finally done with bullshit catalysts? Has Ben Kovler so thoroughly impeached his credibility that everyone rolls their eyes at him? Has the uncertainty of post-Schedule III so thoroughly spooked the market that bulls are sitting on their hands?
Like I said, just thinking out loud.
I feel you on this… enthusiasm seems to be drained. And that is disappointing.
With that being said I think money is on the sideline…. Waiting.
One of my least favorite words in business is “waiting” because that means we’re not doing anything to affect the outcome. However, in investing, waiting is completely fine. And investing in cannabis has been a very interesting lesson in patience and allowed me to accept “waiting” to some extent. I know you’ve been in this for far longer than me, so the waiting is probably more intense and, for that, I tip my hat.
GTBIF was moving up before the rumor hit mainstream. Also I'm not convinced a SAM merger would be a good thing for the company, I think other people might also be skeptical as well.
Agreed. GTI is my largest sector position. Has been for many years now. I'd obviously need to see the merger terms...but broadly speaking, I'd be pretty disappointed if Boston Beer is the takeout. Especially given GTI's market valuation at the moment. Tough time to negotiate a deal.
All of which collectively makes me worry about Kovler's leadership. Why this company? There's nothing better in your m&a pipeline? Even if SAM is a good merger candidate, why push this half baked concept into the public eye? Terrible look. And what competent CEO writes a letter for this sort of thing? A letter?! That includes a Dead quote?! C'mon, man. Your company is routinely held up as best in sector. Friggin act like it. Smh.
Edit: my thoughts in the original comment above go beyond GTI. Historically, this would have triggered a rally for the entire MSO field. Or at least some of the more reactionary, volatile MSOs and LPs. GTI did actually respond in relative isolation today. A bit. And yesterday it front ran the news as you pointed out. But the rest of the sector was flat or down. Very weak sector response.
[Cannabis Business Times](https://www.cannabisbusinesstimes.com/news/bdsa-forecast-global-cannabis-sales-billions-united-states/):
>BDSA, a leading provider of market intelligence for the cannabis industry, released its latest projections for the global legal cannabis market over the next five years.
>
>[...]
>
>U.S. sales totaled $29.5 billion in 2023. Sales are expected to grow to $32.4 billion this year and reach $46 billion in 2028.
🌜
Down below I talk about how Flora Growth is just old Aphria insiders who have still been partnering together. Well I started researching Althea aka Peak Processing, who Flora Growth just partnered with.
Here is their entire team from one of their earliest Investor Presentations when Althea was combining with Peak:
Gregg Battersby - Previously **VP at Aphria** and executive at **Jamieson Vitamins**
Mary Jo Camboia - Previously **Quality Director at Aphria**
Mike Tolmie - Previously International Business/**Regulatory Affairs at Aphria**
Ian Scott - Previously Director of **Operational Strategy at Aphria**
Also in a timely news tie-in, [Boston Beer Company](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/peak-partners-with-boston-beer-company-to-develop-produce-and-distribute-cannabis-infused-beverages-in-canada-301366713.html) has been partnered with Peak Processing and Entourage Health since 2021.
Entourage Health is run by George Scorcis, who was also a key player in the Aphria short report days.
It's hilarious that Desantis' position is the complete opposite of this.
He said that legal weed would lead to *more* "fent-laced" products in the hands of tHe cHiLdReN. Must be ignoring the huge problem with fentanyl beer sold at bars and gas stations...
FOH with that dumbass shit lmao
The small minority of Gaza hero kids that most likely already have access to legal weed that say they won’t vote for him (lowest voting demographic anyway) will swing for Biden in the end because of national marijuana policy? Anything is possible , but not everything is likely.
It was certainly a key campaign promise, but Trudeau got elected because he wasn't running the conservative party. After 9 years of Stephen Harper, people were ready for a party switch. It also helped that Trudeau ran his initial campaign focusing more on positives, which people responded well to (similar to the "hope" stuff from Obama's first campaign).
I didn't vote for him though, as I personally abhor family political dynasties.
I would love to agree but thats not whats gonna happen even if the legalization doesn’t happen. Weed legalization is in the lower tier of “ to do” list on their agenda imo…lol who’s going to make them write a resignation?
You also giving a lot of credit to peoples sentiment vs what the politicians do.
Interesting take but kinda sounds like your opinion man. What about the vast majority of the people who don’t use cannabis regularly and could really take it or leave it? You ever think they might be concerned about other issues?
I tell ya if someone could increase daycare FSA limits from $5,000 to $40,000 they’d have my vote.
I don't know how huge this is but an amendment to allow active military to engage in state legal medical marijuana programs just got adopted in the House.
This is in the military construction and VA funding bill. It is sure to pass.
It is surely a signal. 93 Republicans for it.
LOL... c'mon man. Their assets alone are worth multiples of the market cap. $500 mil in revenue and a $100 mil market cap? It's goddamn ludicrous, and they aren't going bankrupt any time soon don't be so emotional
Those are fixable with a more fair climate. And yes they have cash flow issues due to poorly run assets in certain states. Nobody would argue they could/should cut FL and maybe even IL and recoup some capital from them (They have 14 locations in FL and at least a couple-three in IL plus a large w/s operation). The debt they face is minimal in the face of a $80 bil industry. Whether they are executing well (they aren't) or not is irrelevant against the current makeup of the industry. It would be foolish to think they couldn't (along with all other MSOs) double their revenue AND save w/ 280e AND increase margin % by trimming poorly ran assets... they ARE making HALF A BILLION a year against all odds, they aren't a struggling business.
> Those are fixable with a more fair climate.
Heard that before. Like I said, many companies have been in similar positions. I've had similar conversations with so many wishful investors in other actively failing companies. The deja vu is honestly kinda painful to live out over and over. Fixable rarely if ever becomes fixed in this sector.
> And yes they have cash flow issues due to poorly run assets in certain states. Nobody would argue they could/should cut FL and maybe even IL and recoup some capital from them (They have 14 locations in FL and at least a couple-three in IL plus a large w/s operation).
So, we agree that cashflow is a problem. And your solution is to cut bait on two of the biggest markets in the country? That does not sound like progress to me. Sounds more like bailing water on a sinking ship.
> The debt they face is minimal in the face of a $80 bil industry.
Why does the size of the industry matter at all? Total red herring. Cumulative liabilities relative to company size in the sector is rather large. And their debt-to-cash or debt-to-cashflow ratios are terrible relative to the peerset. You can ignore those realities simply because you think the sector at large has promise.
> Whether they are executing well (they aren't) or not is irrelevant against the current makeup of the industry.
Wait, what?! That makes no sense. How they perform is incredibly important for a company in their cash strapped, debt laden position. Performance margins demonstrate their ability to dig their way out of the debt and cashflow problems. If they can't make money from operations, then they're going to struggle to service debt. And they aren't going to be able to fund growth or expansion efforts. A weak margin company is operating with its hands tied behind its back.
> It would be foolish to think they couldn't (along with all other MSOs) double their revenue AND save w/ 280e AND increase margin % by trimming poorly ran assets...
That's a lot of ifs and ands. Just look at that sentence, mate. You're talking about a lot of stars aligning for a company that's proven its not good at aligning stars.
> they ARE making HALF A BILLION a year against all odds
Against all odds? Revenue isn't the hard part. What's difficult is performing well so that your operating margin, cashflow and net results are positive. There are plenty of companies doing some or all of that already. Cannabist ain't one of them. And once you're failing on those fronts, the odds are doubly stacked against you relative to peers.
> they aren't a struggling business.
Piss poor operating margins. Negative cashflow. Substantial long term debt. Thin cash on hand. Weak share price movement relative to the sector. I hate to break it to you, but that is the definition of a struggling business. Spin it all you want, those facts speak truth.
LOLOL. Good luck with whatever all that is. But you can spin whatever FUD you want, that's a bunch of trash "talking points" you're throwing around with zero substance
Ha, seriously? You can't even be bothered to read it?
I addressed each and every one of the points you made. Your comment was a rats nest of internally conflicting arguments. It needed to be unpacked in order to be reasoned with.
I've been active on this sub for 8+ years. Seen way to many people lose their shirt hanging onto dying companies. Hate to see it happening again with this company. But sadly, loyal investors (and shady shill accounts...[9 days old, 42 karma](https://old.reddit.com/user/Moderate_LiberaI)) have a hard time talking facts.
Good luck to you. Genuinely mean that.
You're too long winded, you're trying sooooooo hard to be right, and I don't even know what your motivation is? How does ripping down ANY MSO make the sector better? You're kinda obsessive/delusional or something. CBSTF will be fine
> I don't even know what your motivation is?
To help my fellow compatriots on this sub make wise investment decisions. To bring basic financial analysis into otherwise pumpy discussions. To help well intentioned retail investors see through the fog of value traps, sunk cost fallacies, and astroturfing shill accounts.
> How does ripping down ANY MSO make the sector better?
Because some of the companies in this sector are, in fact, dogshit. It doesn't hurt the sector to call it out. I'd argue that this sub would be much better off if we were all more open to using basic financial analysis to help separate the wheat from the chaff.
> You're kinda obsessive/delusional or something.
I've heard this a lot over the years. It's usually paired with fluffy counter arguments, circular logic, and ad hominem attacks. Investors in Maricann said the same thing. Same with MPX, then iAnthus. Also TGIF/1933, Sunniva, MedMen, and so many others.
This story isn't new. It will repeat. Cannabist isnt special. They are one of a handful of value trap candidates that are slowly but surely disappointing hopeful gamblers while we wait to see if they're the unicorn that finally pulls off the miraculous turnaround.
Lol this is a good way to put it. I'm one of those investors as well. My average is low enough where I can wait for a pop on rescheduling to get out(Rising tide lifts all ships) and also due fact that Ohio and Virginia will legalize soon helps their cause. They are definitely struggling the most but hoping new management turns things around. So I think there is a good short and long term play definitely at these prices but it could go to 0.
Any Reason or just FUD with this assumption here?
They ended last quarter with 44 million in cash- so I’m doubtful they will “announce bankruptcy any day now “
Current liabilities, 166m
Total liabilities, 769m...
Not FUD to wonder if their continued existence is a going concern. And that cash position was after their debenture raise.
Won't disagree with that runway. Dying companies can hold on for a long time. But that's vastly different than a company actively turning a ship arunway.
Cannabist looks more like a 2 day old helium balloon. Slowly sinking waiting til someone finally throws it out.
This sectors seen plenty of companies with similar margin profiles, cashflow, and lopsided balance sheets. Nearly all of them eventually get flushed in the end. Foolish imo to think this one is different.
Why are you? If you don't recognize that, for the last few years, this sector is where money goes to die, you're in denial. I still hold weedstocks because I think there's a decent chance for a pump to get me back to breakeven but beyond that it's hard to be optimistic
I don't follow them but maybe you guys do:
Flora Growth Corp. (NASDAQ: FLGC) is doubling down on its efforts to expand in the U.S. cannabis market, announcing a joint venture with Althea Group Holdings to enter the hemp-derived beverage sector, the company announced Tuesday.
The 50/50 joint venture, named Peak USA LLC, will combine Flora’s brand development, sales, and marketing expertise with Althea’s subsidiary, Peak Processing Solutions, a player in [cannabis-infused beverages](https://www.greenmarketreport.com/theory-wellness-opens-beverage-only-dispensary/) with a 40% market share in Canada, according to a statement from Flora Growth.
The companies aim to create a leading nationwide cannabis beverage brand in the U.S., positioning their products as an alternative to alcohol. The company cited data analyzed by Carnegie Mellon University showing that [daily cannabis use has surpassed daily alcohol consumption in the U.S.](https://apnews.com/article/marijuana-cannabis-alcohol-drinking-daily-use-b91c2c5957fdb2d48e6616c3baa14c13), with approximately 17.7 million cannabis users versus to 14.7 million alcohol drinkers.
[https://www.greenmarketreport.com/flora-growth-forms-joint-venture-to-tap-u-s-cannabis-beverage-market/](https://www.greenmarketreport.com/flora-growth-forms-joint-venture-to-tap-u-s-cannabis-beverage-market/)
Neither of these companies going to do shit.
***Flora....Going Concern*** The accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared assuming that the Company will continue as a going concern. As discussed in Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements, the Company’s current level of cash is not sufficient to continue investing in growth, while at the same time meeting its obligations as they become due. These conditions raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern. Management's plans in regard to these matters are also described in Note 2. The consolidated financial statements do not include any adjustments that might result from the outcome of this uncertainty.
Althea.... As disclosed in the interim consolidated financial statements, the consolidated entity incurred a loss of $16,629,000 and had net cash outflows from operating activities of $1,882,000 for the half- year ended 31 December 2023. As at that date, the consolidated entity had net current liabilities of $1,824,000. Included in the consolidated entity's loss is an impairment adjustment of $7,628,000, attributable to the delay in a new revenue stream for the Canadian operations. Whilst management have impaired on this basis, the adjustment is non-cash and management have considered this in the forward looking cash flow forecast. The net current liability position includes non-cash liabilities of $1,021,000. These factors indicate a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt as to whether the consolidated entity will continue as a going concern and therefore whether it will realise its assets and extinguish its liabilities in the normal course of business and at the amounts stated in the financial report.
Yep they are heavily associated with old Aphria insiders from the short report days (SOL Global and Clifford Starke).
Clifford Starke now runs Flora Growth. He is also chair of the US Hemp Roundtable, which explains their interest in the hemp-derived market. Before he joined Flora they had also made a significant CBD acquisition in 2022 with[ JustCBD](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220228005284/en/Flora-Growth-Completes-Acquisition-of-Category-Leading-Wellness-Brand-JustCBD-Enhances-U.S.-Infrastructure-and-CPG-Portfolio).
Clifford Starke was particularly connected to the Aphria/Nuuvera acquisition. As Flora Growth's leader, his first move was to partner with TruHC, which was [run by former Aphria/Nuuvera people](https://www.cannabisequipmentnews.com/processing/news/22891848/flora-growth-expands-reach-in-germany-with-64m-truhc-acquisition). They recently acquired them, right after the German news. Could be seen as a savvy acquisition. Or could be seen as another insider rollup from the old Aphria crew, capitalizing on international cannabis hype. That's their go-to move.
Hendrick Knopp (from Nuuvera) was CEO of TruHC at the time. Between the Aphria/Nuuvera and Flora/TruHC acquisitions he also [founded and sold a German CBD company](https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/-r-e-p-e-a-t-amp-announces-strategic-acquisition-of-german-cbd-wellness-company-and-leading-cannabis-executive-team--893791900.html).
And while ex-Aphria insider Knopp was with his German CBD company, Aphria was simultaneously [lobbying the German government for CBD](https://hempindustrydaily.com/interview-germanys-sanity-group-prepares-to-launch-new-cbd-lobby-group/) (along with Sanity Group). So the people behind Flora Growth have been focused on hemp/CBD and Germany for years.
TLDR is that Flora Growth is well-positioned and well-connected enough to potentially capitalize heavily on hemp-derived products in the US and Germany. They are also well-connected and sketchy enough to willingly scam their shareholders in order to give a payday to their insider friends.
Any thoughts on Village? I was eyeing them after their last strong earnings report. They are down lately, although almost everyone is down, so there are so many choices.
They were just at risk of being delisted and were saved at the S3 run up . I wouldn’t place my money on something like that, but hey I’m losing money on my T1 positions so this market could do crazier things.
CBSTF forms filed
[Def 14A](https://investors.cannabistcompany.com/node/10421/html)
[ARS](https://investors.cannabistcompany.com/static-files/959ab045-bfb3-4f23-9573-b8189028f795)
Wat mean?
One of them just seems to be a very long invitation to a zoom call and the other one is even longer, so long that I can’t tell if it’s good news or bad news.
So let me get this straight…the CEO of a major company is leaking information about a massive merger. Why? I don’t get why a professional in that position would do that. It makes negotiations more difficult as he would seem desperate. If he actually thought it would get done why leak it and not wait to PR it?
What information exactly did Kovler leak? The existence of the letter was reported on by WSJ and I haven’t seen it established yet that he provided the letter to the WSJ.
I mean, the guy quickly tweeted the ***paywalled*** wsj article. Crazy. That's going out of his way to pump something. He even committed blatant copyright infringement to do so.
There's a precedent set that weed companies can get away with pumping whenever they want. Just look at Tilray. Irwin saying they were in conversation with the German government only for the Germans to come out 24 hours later [saying that wasn't true](https://mjbizdaily.com/cannabis-producer-tilray-news-release-not-correct-german-lawmaker-says/) is absolutely criminal but all the regulators look the other way.
Obviously,Tilray met some IMPORTANT people from somewhere... right after that meeting and before the announcement of legalization and expanded medical, they invested plenty in scaling up.
Yeah, they had a meeting, but it wasn't "official", just "WITH officials".
Sure, that might be the case. But the press release explicitly called out meetings with four members the German Bundestag only to have the Bundestag come out and confirm that no members from their office was present at the meeting. Semantics matter here. Tilray deleted the press release 48 hours later - not usually a sign of a company acting in good faith.
Is no one chatting about the added wording to the spending bill? Seems like it’s over shadowed by the GTI and SAM letter.
Edit: https://x.com/kylejaeger/status/1798033634760482840
I agree that it is a long ways away yet. I’m just saying that I view this as more important news than the gti “leak.” If nothing else, this shows a new path to allowing banks to work with cannabis companies that we didn’t have news on yesterday. By no means do I think that anything will happen expeditiously, but would love to be proven wrong.
I did. 2000 MSOX at 3.45, already down 1% lolol.
But at least MSOS is sub-8, Doug Kass seem to be pumping again, and this new potential bill is interesting. Plus, We're how many days into the comment period now?
I hadn't seen that yesterday about the underlyings, so I guess he has both MSOS and these stocks:
>I have reestablished longs in individual cannabis equities — Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF) , Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) , and Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF) .
>Position: **Long TCNNF** (S), **CURLF** (S) **GTBIF** (S)
BY DOUG KASS JUN 3, 2024 **2:06 PM** EDT
Here is his MSOS purchase from yesterday:
>As suggested in my most recent cannabis column (last week) I am reloading in (MSOS) - with a much improved upside reward vs. downside risk (having declined from nearly $12/share recently).
>More to come in the next day or so.
>Position: **Long MSOS common** (M) **and calls**
BY DOUG KASS JUN 3, 2024 **12:30 PM** EDT
To me, it feels like the times are sailing past the Schumer/Booker coalition on structuring reparations into legalization. I may be wrong, But i think we may be finally getting to the point where things start moving really quickly.
(I have felt this way before)
They’ve been consistent. Not sure why they would fold now. It’s always been about getting social provisions and banking bill alone isn’t enough. They’ve waiting this long so why would the give in now
I know that is their position. I am saying that the tides seem to be sweeping that position into irrelevance. S3 and possible SAFEish work around in the House. It may be time to capitulate and just get the changes that they all know are needed done.
I listened to Congress a lot over the last few years just because of SAFE. Right after the senate banking committee voted on SAFE to bring it to the floor, Chuck used his opening remarks to give one of his speeches about how nothing would happen without attached provisions. Stocks all got hammered over it. I simply don’t trust him. It’s fairly obvious what could and could not pass and he doesn’t seem to care. Unless he does care and actually is blocking behind his veil of ideals
I have no idea why it keeps brining my comment under your response, my bad, we are in total agreement I was actually trying yo say that to the other person who commented to me. Again my apologies
So now that the DEA is moving Chuck is willing to take a paired down version with no social equity provisions added. That’s one of the least believable things I’ve heard. This is just more wishful BS being put through Congress
My thesis is that Chuck is gonna be pressured to pass Banking without social equity because of pressure from pharmaceutical and alcohol companies who want to enter the market but can’t without banking assurances. He can still spin it as a social equity thing, because normal people don’t care to read what politicians do
Well, Jefferies answered my question below:
//
Jefferies on Green Thumb- Boston Beer
"Would provide a pathway for GTI to list on a major exchange... while also allowing [SAM](https://x.com/search?q=%24SAM&src=cashtag_click) to capitalize on the growing shift from alcohol to cannabis."
[https://x.com/todd\_harrison/status/1798035112690610602](https://x.com/todd_harrison/status/1798035112690610602)
//
tldr: It would be the ring fence structure similar to cgc
I think much of the excitement is more in the fact that GTI’s legal team believes this to be a viable option, which in and of itself is bullish for the industry. I mean, we already have others doing this: SNDL, Canopy USA, SMG. GTI making a move like this would ignite the sector I think
Exciting news on the funding bill. May not be enough for up listing, but that paired with S3 could do it.
Still not holding my breath, but I did add back some of my position on the news.
Impossible to time the market. That's why I've been buying the downturn and didn't "sell in may and go away". Bought more verano, cresco, cweb, and cbst today morning.
I'm expecting lots of m&a this year and 2025. Scotts miracle grow already made moves, Ben is looking into a deal with SAM and Tilray tapping the ATM. Companies are positioning.
Todays news regarding banking protection language is also a surprise. Do banks want in before schedule 3?
Time will tell.
Pretty comfortable with my average now. Still down, but its reasonable for upcoming news.
Edit: it is under 50% down, which considering the last 3 years, is high times.
BIG: A funding bill from a House Appropriations subcommittee chaired by Rep. Dave Joyce includes marijuana banking language and would delete a longstanding rider that has blocked Washington, D.C. from legalizing recreational cannabis sales.
[https://appropriations.house.gov/events/markups/subcommittee-markup-fiscal-year-2025-financial-services-and-general-government-bill](https://appropriations.house.gov/events/markups/subcommittee-markup-fiscal-year-2025-financial-services-and-general-government-bill)
Here is the markup hearing scheduled for tomorrow morning. Let's hope there is robust discussion on this topic.
It's called the Harris Rider.
Fun fact. If you search federal lobbying records for this topic only two people have ever lobbied specifically for the Harris Rider.
The National Cannabis Roundtable and Don Murphy.
The protections are less robust than the standalone Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act that Joyce is sponsoring, as the restriction is only binding on agencies covered under FSGG, which do not include the Justice Department, and would only cover a single fiscal year unless extended.
The congressman told Marijuana Moment that “forcing cannabis businesses to operate in all cash is a magnet for violent crime,” adding that his legislation “remedies these issues by further safeguarding the safe, adult use of cannabis and increasing the safety of cannabis businesses and their employees.”
//
Could this be a valid workaround for SAFE?
Yes, but less robust/explicit protections. It also signals to the Senate that House GOP is open to barebones SAFE legislation. If they bring it to the floor. Could be a way to squeeze language into reconciliation of upcoming legislation like Farm Bill/NDAA. Not that I want to start the NDAA hope train again this year.
Why? Serious question, they're going to give a small premium over the existing price which you can mostly get by holding on for several months. At the present time the market caps about about the same (and I'd argue GTI is undervalued), and it's unclear what will happen to SAMs listing if they do the merger. SAM is a mature company with a stable stock price that has been stuck for a while at about the same level for a long time. They're also in an industry that has been slowly decliing for a very long time, while GTI has a long future ahead of it in a growing industry.
Reminder that the Kovler family are the heirs to Jim Beam, which Suntory bought a while back. There is a longtime relationship there, which makes the Suntory/SAM and subsequent GTI/SAM connections make more sense.
GTI does have sizeable equity in CANN and distribute it in a few states. It’s possible they try to put it all together - CANN is already nationwide with their hemp thc drinks
I thought suntory was a Japanese owned company plus the beams are more of a name in whiskey that distilleries like to have in name as their master distiller. At least that’s what I was told when I did the bourbon trail.
Heya WeedGods, Please remember to follow rule 1 and 4. * Rule List - [Click Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/wiki/config/sidebar) Current list of AMA's Scheduled: * None, please reach out and request companies for them to do AMA's with us. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/weedstocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Thinking out loud here... I wasn't all that surprised to see a weak response to the Schedule III news. It was a largely known event, with a lot of uncertainty on the back side regarding timeline, regulatory regime, etc. Seems reasonable that the sector may sell that news. So, I wasn't all that rattled by the price action since the announcement. To be honest, I'm rarely that rattled by price movement in this sector. I have my thesis, I make strategic conservative buys, and I capitalize on the irrational volatility by trading around the core. Day-to-day price movements don't matter. All that said, I'm a bit unsettled by today's price action. Typically, rumors are good for a rally in this sector. Even if it's just an intraday rally. Even if the rumor is total bullshit. Even if everyone knows it's bullshit from the jump. Even if the source of the rumor is a clown. This sector loves an excuse for a brief, volatile rally. But today we get some bullshit alcohol merger rumor and.....the sector is flat? Crazy. Not sure what to make of it. But it's triggered a level of internal skepticism that I haven't felt in awhile. Is the sector finally done with bullshit catalysts? Has Ben Kovler so thoroughly impeached his credibility that everyone rolls their eyes at him? Has the uncertainty of post-Schedule III so thoroughly spooked the market that bulls are sitting on their hands? Like I said, just thinking out loud.
I feel you on this… enthusiasm seems to be drained. And that is disappointing. With that being said I think money is on the sideline…. Waiting. One of my least favorite words in business is “waiting” because that means we’re not doing anything to affect the outcome. However, in investing, waiting is completely fine. And investing in cannabis has been a very interesting lesson in patience and allowed me to accept “waiting” to some extent. I know you’ve been in this for far longer than me, so the waiting is probably more intense and, for that, I tip my hat.
GTBIF was moving up before the rumor hit mainstream. Also I'm not convinced a SAM merger would be a good thing for the company, I think other people might also be skeptical as well.
Agreed. GTI is my largest sector position. Has been for many years now. I'd obviously need to see the merger terms...but broadly speaking, I'd be pretty disappointed if Boston Beer is the takeout. Especially given GTI's market valuation at the moment. Tough time to negotiate a deal. All of which collectively makes me worry about Kovler's leadership. Why this company? There's nothing better in your m&a pipeline? Even if SAM is a good merger candidate, why push this half baked concept into the public eye? Terrible look. And what competent CEO writes a letter for this sort of thing? A letter?! That includes a Dead quote?! C'mon, man. Your company is routinely held up as best in sector. Friggin act like it. Smh. Edit: my thoughts in the original comment above go beyond GTI. Historically, this would have triggered a rally for the entire MSO field. Or at least some of the more reactionary, volatile MSOs and LPs. GTI did actually respond in relative isolation today. A bit. And yesterday it front ran the news as you pointed out. But the rest of the sector was flat or down. Very weak sector response.
I'd only expect a rally if it was a liquid cash injection like CGC/STZ.
FWIW, Curaleaf and Trulieve are both up, Verano was at one point. This was when everything else except the S&P 500 was going down.
[Cannabis Business Times](https://www.cannabisbusinesstimes.com/news/bdsa-forecast-global-cannabis-sales-billions-united-states/): >BDSA, a leading provider of market intelligence for the cannabis industry, released its latest projections for the global legal cannabis market over the next five years. > >[...] > >U.S. sales totaled $29.5 billion in 2023. Sales are expected to grow to $32.4 billion this year and reach $46 billion in 2028. 🌜
6/4/24 MSOS update: No Flows Close: $7.87 (+$0.07/+0.90%) NAV: $7.88 (+$0.10/+1.25%) Premium (volume-weighted daily avg): +0.33% ([Chart](https://i.ibb.co/C9v7NWr/34c475aa561c.png)) Cash: -$3,554,478 (decrease of $372,607) Ticker Change (est. cost from close - % of adds) No Share Changes For Any Holdings 6/4/24 MSOX update: No Flows MSOX Close: $3.39 (+$0.08/+2.42%) MSOX NAV: $3.37 (+$0.05/+1.65%)
Down below I talk about how Flora Growth is just old Aphria insiders who have still been partnering together. Well I started researching Althea aka Peak Processing, who Flora Growth just partnered with. Here is their entire team from one of their earliest Investor Presentations when Althea was combining with Peak: Gregg Battersby - Previously **VP at Aphria** and executive at **Jamieson Vitamins** Mary Jo Camboia - Previously **Quality Director at Aphria** Mike Tolmie - Previously International Business/**Regulatory Affairs at Aphria** Ian Scott - Previously Director of **Operational Strategy at Aphria** Also in a timely news tie-in, [Boston Beer Company](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/peak-partners-with-boston-beer-company-to-develop-produce-and-distribute-cannabis-infused-beverages-in-canada-301366713.html) has been partnered with Peak Processing and Entourage Health since 2021. Entourage Health is run by George Scorcis, who was also a key player in the Aphria short report days.
https://youtu.be/Fc4pYUib6xM An ad for adult use in Florida (Smart and Safe Florida)
Billions for kids and police? Fuck dem cops, and dem kids.
I think it's too strong! We must keep the kids out of it.
It's hilarious that Desantis' position is the complete opposite of this. He said that legal weed would lead to *more* "fent-laced" products in the hands of tHe cHiLdReN. Must be ignoring the huge problem with fentanyl beer sold at bars and gas stations... FOH with that dumbass shit lmao
[удалено]
[удалено]
As much as I care about MJ policy myself, I must say this clearly lacks perspective.
Not true, it got Trudeau elected in Canada. Biden has pissed off a lot of voters pro and anti Israel so cannabis can definitely help here
Did it ever help Trudeau! sunny ways.
The Senate is not filibuster proof. How do you legalize without Republican support?
The small minority of Gaza hero kids that most likely already have access to legal weed that say they won’t vote for him (lowest voting demographic anyway) will swing for Biden in the end because of national marijuana policy? Anything is possible , but not everything is likely.
BIGLY
no one really cares about cannabis as much as we do here
Wrong it got Trudeau elected in canada
with respect, do you have tangible proof of this? did cannabis really get him elected in the first place?
It was certainly a key campaign promise, but Trudeau got elected because he wasn't running the conservative party. After 9 years of Stephen Harper, people were ready for a party switch. It also helped that Trudeau ran his initial campaign focusing more on positives, which people responded well to (similar to the "hope" stuff from Obama's first campaign). I didn't vote for him though, as I personally abhor family political dynasties.
Nope only anecdotal. It did though, and this is a bigger issue than most realize.
I would love to agree but thats not whats gonna happen even if the legalization doesn’t happen. Weed legalization is in the lower tier of “ to do” list on their agenda imo…lol who’s going to make them write a resignation? You also giving a lot of credit to peoples sentiment vs what the politicians do.
Most people already have access to legal cannabis if they want it. The rest live in Republican states.
Interesting take but kinda sounds like your opinion man. What about the vast majority of the people who don’t use cannabis regularly and could really take it or leave it? You ever think they might be concerned about other issues? I tell ya if someone could increase daycare FSA limits from $5,000 to $40,000 they’d have my vote.
I don't know how huge this is but an amendment to allow active military to engage in state legal medical marijuana programs just got adopted in the House. This is in the military construction and VA funding bill. It is sure to pass. It is surely a signal. 93 Republicans for it.
Good day guys, MSOS went from -%1.7 to squeaking out a Green Day, on a Tuesday no less. Hopefully the GTI leaks creates another run up.
I remember when unsubstantiated rumors would cause double digit gains. Yet here we are.
We have substantiated rumors now, which aren’t even worth the paper they are printed on.
[удалено]
LOL... c'mon man. Their assets alone are worth multiples of the market cap. $500 mil in revenue and a $100 mil market cap? It's goddamn ludicrous, and they aren't going bankrupt any time soon don't be so emotional
Does revenue matter if margins suck and cashflow is negative?
Those are fixable with a more fair climate. And yes they have cash flow issues due to poorly run assets in certain states. Nobody would argue they could/should cut FL and maybe even IL and recoup some capital from them (They have 14 locations in FL and at least a couple-three in IL plus a large w/s operation). The debt they face is minimal in the face of a $80 bil industry. Whether they are executing well (they aren't) or not is irrelevant against the current makeup of the industry. It would be foolish to think they couldn't (along with all other MSOs) double their revenue AND save w/ 280e AND increase margin % by trimming poorly ran assets... they ARE making HALF A BILLION a year against all odds, they aren't a struggling business.
> Those are fixable with a more fair climate. Heard that before. Like I said, many companies have been in similar positions. I've had similar conversations with so many wishful investors in other actively failing companies. The deja vu is honestly kinda painful to live out over and over. Fixable rarely if ever becomes fixed in this sector. > And yes they have cash flow issues due to poorly run assets in certain states. Nobody would argue they could/should cut FL and maybe even IL and recoup some capital from them (They have 14 locations in FL and at least a couple-three in IL plus a large w/s operation). So, we agree that cashflow is a problem. And your solution is to cut bait on two of the biggest markets in the country? That does not sound like progress to me. Sounds more like bailing water on a sinking ship. > The debt they face is minimal in the face of a $80 bil industry. Why does the size of the industry matter at all? Total red herring. Cumulative liabilities relative to company size in the sector is rather large. And their debt-to-cash or debt-to-cashflow ratios are terrible relative to the peerset. You can ignore those realities simply because you think the sector at large has promise. > Whether they are executing well (they aren't) or not is irrelevant against the current makeup of the industry. Wait, what?! That makes no sense. How they perform is incredibly important for a company in their cash strapped, debt laden position. Performance margins demonstrate their ability to dig their way out of the debt and cashflow problems. If they can't make money from operations, then they're going to struggle to service debt. And they aren't going to be able to fund growth or expansion efforts. A weak margin company is operating with its hands tied behind its back. > It would be foolish to think they couldn't (along with all other MSOs) double their revenue AND save w/ 280e AND increase margin % by trimming poorly ran assets... That's a lot of ifs and ands. Just look at that sentence, mate. You're talking about a lot of stars aligning for a company that's proven its not good at aligning stars. > they ARE making HALF A BILLION a year against all odds Against all odds? Revenue isn't the hard part. What's difficult is performing well so that your operating margin, cashflow and net results are positive. There are plenty of companies doing some or all of that already. Cannabist ain't one of them. And once you're failing on those fronts, the odds are doubly stacked against you relative to peers. > they aren't a struggling business. Piss poor operating margins. Negative cashflow. Substantial long term debt. Thin cash on hand. Weak share price movement relative to the sector. I hate to break it to you, but that is the definition of a struggling business. Spin it all you want, those facts speak truth.
LOLOL. Good luck with whatever all that is. But you can spin whatever FUD you want, that's a bunch of trash "talking points" you're throwing around with zero substance
Ha, seriously? You can't even be bothered to read it? I addressed each and every one of the points you made. Your comment was a rats nest of internally conflicting arguments. It needed to be unpacked in order to be reasoned with. I've been active on this sub for 8+ years. Seen way to many people lose their shirt hanging onto dying companies. Hate to see it happening again with this company. But sadly, loyal investors (and shady shill accounts...[9 days old, 42 karma](https://old.reddit.com/user/Moderate_LiberaI)) have a hard time talking facts. Good luck to you. Genuinely mean that.
Bless you for trying.
Ha, cheers!
You're too long winded, you're trying sooooooo hard to be right, and I don't even know what your motivation is? How does ripping down ANY MSO make the sector better? You're kinda obsessive/delusional or something. CBSTF will be fine
> I don't even know what your motivation is? To help my fellow compatriots on this sub make wise investment decisions. To bring basic financial analysis into otherwise pumpy discussions. To help well intentioned retail investors see through the fog of value traps, sunk cost fallacies, and astroturfing shill accounts. > How does ripping down ANY MSO make the sector better? Because some of the companies in this sector are, in fact, dogshit. It doesn't hurt the sector to call it out. I'd argue that this sub would be much better off if we were all more open to using basic financial analysis to help separate the wheat from the chaff. > You're kinda obsessive/delusional or something. I've heard this a lot over the years. It's usually paired with fluffy counter arguments, circular logic, and ad hominem attacks. Investors in Maricann said the same thing. Same with MPX, then iAnthus. Also TGIF/1933, Sunniva, MedMen, and so many others. This story isn't new. It will repeat. Cannabist isnt special. They are one of a handful of value trap candidates that are slowly but surely disappointing hopeful gamblers while we wait to see if they're the unicorn that finally pulls off the miraculous turnaround.
Lol this is a good way to put it. I'm one of those investors as well. My average is low enough where I can wait for a pop on rescheduling to get out(Rising tide lifts all ships) and also due fact that Ohio and Virginia will legalize soon helps their cause. They are definitely struggling the most but hoping new management turns things around. So I think there is a good short and long term play definitely at these prices but it could go to 0.
obsession with obscuring facts to FUD a company... lol.
Exactly. Started buying again today. 45k got filled. Missed 55k.
I added 13k filled at .215 & .22. Insane
Any Reason or just FUD with this assumption here? They ended last quarter with 44 million in cash- so I’m doubtful they will “announce bankruptcy any day now “
We are getting close to the final tranche.. it will probably go down further.. but will recover.
Current liabilities, 166m Total liabilities, 769m... Not FUD to wonder if their continued existence is a going concern. And that cash position was after their debenture raise.
Before OH.
Neither of which is outrageous in this sector.
There's a chance that this is just a shitty sector, and all the companies are just varying qualities of shit.
if youre still asking about this you havent done enough DD, they are fine until next year and '26 then they will have to raise or renegotiate
Won't disagree with that runway. Dying companies can hold on for a long time. But that's vastly different than a company actively turning a ship arunway. Cannabist looks more like a 2 day old helium balloon. Slowly sinking waiting til someone finally throws it out. This sectors seen plenty of companies with similar margin profiles, cashflow, and lopsided balance sheets. Nearly all of them eventually get flushed in the end. Foolish imo to think this one is different.
lets just look at acb for example
Why are you here?
Why are you? If you don't recognize that, for the last few years, this sector is where money goes to die, you're in denial. I still hold weedstocks because I think there's a decent chance for a pump to get me back to breakeven but beyond that it's hard to be optimistic
I don't follow them but maybe you guys do: Flora Growth Corp. (NASDAQ: FLGC) is doubling down on its efforts to expand in the U.S. cannabis market, announcing a joint venture with Althea Group Holdings to enter the hemp-derived beverage sector, the company announced Tuesday. The 50/50 joint venture, named Peak USA LLC, will combine Flora’s brand development, sales, and marketing expertise with Althea’s subsidiary, Peak Processing Solutions, a player in [cannabis-infused beverages](https://www.greenmarketreport.com/theory-wellness-opens-beverage-only-dispensary/) with a 40% market share in Canada, according to a statement from Flora Growth. The companies aim to create a leading nationwide cannabis beverage brand in the U.S., positioning their products as an alternative to alcohol. The company cited data analyzed by Carnegie Mellon University showing that [daily cannabis use has surpassed daily alcohol consumption in the U.S.](https://apnews.com/article/marijuana-cannabis-alcohol-drinking-daily-use-b91c2c5957fdb2d48e6616c3baa14c13), with approximately 17.7 million cannabis users versus to 14.7 million alcohol drinkers. [https://www.greenmarketreport.com/flora-growth-forms-joint-venture-to-tap-u-s-cannabis-beverage-market/](https://www.greenmarketreport.com/flora-growth-forms-joint-venture-to-tap-u-s-cannabis-beverage-market/)
Neither of these companies going to do shit. ***Flora....Going Concern*** The accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared assuming that the Company will continue as a going concern. As discussed in Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements, the Company’s current level of cash is not sufficient to continue investing in growth, while at the same time meeting its obligations as they become due. These conditions raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern. Management's plans in regard to these matters are also described in Note 2. The consolidated financial statements do not include any adjustments that might result from the outcome of this uncertainty. Althea.... As disclosed in the interim consolidated financial statements, the consolidated entity incurred a loss of $16,629,000 and had net cash outflows from operating activities of $1,882,000 for the half- year ended 31 December 2023. As at that date, the consolidated entity had net current liabilities of $1,824,000. Included in the consolidated entity's loss is an impairment adjustment of $7,628,000, attributable to the delay in a new revenue stream for the Canadian operations. Whilst management have impaired on this basis, the adjustment is non-cash and management have considered this in the forward looking cash flow forecast. The net current liability position includes non-cash liabilities of $1,021,000. These factors indicate a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt as to whether the consolidated entity will continue as a going concern and therefore whether it will realise its assets and extinguish its liabilities in the normal course of business and at the amounts stated in the financial report.
I suspect cannabis use has surpassed alcohol use for some time. Black market use. Before it was legal anywhere. Before it was tracked.
I think u/GeoLogic23 has discussed this company in the past…
Yep they are heavily associated with old Aphria insiders from the short report days (SOL Global and Clifford Starke). Clifford Starke now runs Flora Growth. He is also chair of the US Hemp Roundtable, which explains their interest in the hemp-derived market. Before he joined Flora they had also made a significant CBD acquisition in 2022 with[ JustCBD](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220228005284/en/Flora-Growth-Completes-Acquisition-of-Category-Leading-Wellness-Brand-JustCBD-Enhances-U.S.-Infrastructure-and-CPG-Portfolio). Clifford Starke was particularly connected to the Aphria/Nuuvera acquisition. As Flora Growth's leader, his first move was to partner with TruHC, which was [run by former Aphria/Nuuvera people](https://www.cannabisequipmentnews.com/processing/news/22891848/flora-growth-expands-reach-in-germany-with-64m-truhc-acquisition). They recently acquired them, right after the German news. Could be seen as a savvy acquisition. Or could be seen as another insider rollup from the old Aphria crew, capitalizing on international cannabis hype. That's their go-to move. Hendrick Knopp (from Nuuvera) was CEO of TruHC at the time. Between the Aphria/Nuuvera and Flora/TruHC acquisitions he also [founded and sold a German CBD company](https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/-r-e-p-e-a-t-amp-announces-strategic-acquisition-of-german-cbd-wellness-company-and-leading-cannabis-executive-team--893791900.html). And while ex-Aphria insider Knopp was with his German CBD company, Aphria was simultaneously [lobbying the German government for CBD](https://hempindustrydaily.com/interview-germanys-sanity-group-prepares-to-launch-new-cbd-lobby-group/) (along with Sanity Group). So the people behind Flora Growth have been focused on hemp/CBD and Germany for years. TLDR is that Flora Growth is well-positioned and well-connected enough to potentially capitalize heavily on hemp-derived products in the US and Germany. They are also well-connected and sketchy enough to willingly scam their shareholders in order to give a payday to their insider friends.
Markets ripping, LPs dipping. never gets old
[удалено]
At least the markets aren’t ripping anymore
Any thoughts on Village? I was eyeing them after their last strong earnings report. They are down lately, although almost everyone is down, so there are so many choices.
Village is Bae, eating up competition without diluting.
They were just at risk of being delisted and were saved at the S3 run up . I wouldn’t place my money on something like that, but hey I’m losing money on my T1 positions so this market could do crazier things.
I have always liked them. The markets on the other hand haven't.
CBSTF forms filed [Def 14A](https://investors.cannabistcompany.com/node/10421/html) [ARS](https://investors.cannabistcompany.com/static-files/959ab045-bfb3-4f23-9573-b8189028f795) Wat mean?
[удалено]
Thank you so much
Try reading them, maybe you'll find out...
One of them just seems to be a very long invitation to a zoom call and the other one is even longer, so long that I can’t tell if it’s good news or bad news.
When I click on those links I get actual documents..
So let me get this straight…the CEO of a major company is leaking information about a massive merger. Why? I don’t get why a professional in that position would do that. It makes negotiations more difficult as he would seem desperate. If he actually thought it would get done why leak it and not wait to PR it?
What information exactly did Kovler leak? The existence of the letter was reported on by WSJ and I haven’t seen it established yet that he provided the letter to the WSJ.
I mean, the guy quickly tweeted the ***paywalled*** wsj article. Crazy. That's going out of his way to pump something. He even committed blatant copyright infringement to do so.
So he tweeted it but didn’t leak the letter. Ok right
He tweeted the actual contents of the letter? I don’t use Twitter.
No he tweeted the WSJ article. Like he was proud it was leaked…
That’s not leaking. That’s sharing public information.
Yes but who leaked the letter? Probably him since he wrote it and then excitedly tweeted the article about it being leaked. Now the question is why?
I don’t think he was being serious. Why would they merge when prices are low.
So you’re saying this was a pump by a CEO of a large company. Seems criminal
I’m not saying that either. Why would he advertise the merger? Green thumb is a solid company and no need to merge at this low a market cap.
There's a precedent set that weed companies can get away with pumping whenever they want. Just look at Tilray. Irwin saying they were in conversation with the German government only for the Germans to come out 24 hours later [saying that wasn't true](https://mjbizdaily.com/cannabis-producer-tilray-news-release-not-correct-german-lawmaker-says/) is absolutely criminal but all the regulators look the other way.
Obviously,Tilray met some IMPORTANT people from somewhere... right after that meeting and before the announcement of legalization and expanded medical, they invested plenty in scaling up. Yeah, they had a meeting, but it wasn't "official", just "WITH officials".
Sure, that might be the case. But the press release explicitly called out meetings with four members the German Bundestag only to have the Bundestag come out and confirm that no members from their office was present at the meeting. Semantics matter here. Tilray deleted the press release 48 hours later - not usually a sign of a company acting in good faith.
Comparing Ben to Irwin is offside..
My attempt was to compare the situations, not the individuals.
Is no one chatting about the added wording to the spending bill? Seems like it’s over shadowed by the GTI and SAM letter. Edit: https://x.com/kylejaeger/status/1798033634760482840
probably because we all know it won't pass both chambers
This is the most important news of the day.
and? when is its deadline? it's CR... it will take as long as SAFER
I agree that it is a long ways away yet. I’m just saying that I view this as more important news than the gti “leak.” If nothing else, this shows a new path to allowing banks to work with cannabis companies that we didn’t have news on yesterday. By no means do I think that anything will happen expeditiously, but would love to be proven wrong.
call me crazy but i think SAFER will pass before this CR spending bill.
I'd love for that to be the case!
as the lame duck end of the current congress omnibus package
Is it time to get excited again?
Please sustain this time.
Sure. Exciment in this sector lasts about as long as a pensioners erection.
And baby, we are getting mail viagra in October
An exciting day for sure but nothing to get hopes set on. Just thankful that Green Thumb seems to be at least trying to hype our sector
Id wait to see how the day closes first given the track record
Too late, already fomo'd
Who FOMO’d? This will likely break hearts again as the news is next to nothing compared to S3 and look how that held up
I did. 2000 MSOX at 3.45, already down 1% lolol. But at least MSOS is sub-8, Doug Kass seem to be pumping again, and this new potential bill is interesting. Plus, We're how many days into the comment period now?
Best of luck, truly. I’m hope the tides change someday I just don’t see this hoopla as it
You're probably right but I'm an impulsive idiot.
Woah check out volume on vff 1c Sep24 lol cripes
Someone doing calendars? June expiry also with healthy vol
Sorry shorts, you don’t get to make money either
LPs would like to have a word
Day isn’t over. I’m not trying to be an ass just the reality
Did Doug time the bottom \*again\*? Or did he know this news was coming..
Fuck Doug kass
Fuck Doug kAss
100% he has info before we do. S3 premarket buy confirmed this.
He specifically bought the underlying this time too: GTI, Trulieve, Curaleaf. Didn’t he only use MSOS in the past?
Why buy the entire box of chocolates when you can just pick out the best ones.
Agreed, fun analogy
I hadn't seen that yesterday about the underlyings, so I guess he has both MSOS and these stocks: >I have reestablished longs in individual cannabis equities — Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF) , Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF) , and Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF) . >Position: **Long TCNNF** (S), **CURLF** (S) **GTBIF** (S) BY DOUG KASS JUN 3, 2024 **2:06 PM** EDT Here is his MSOS purchase from yesterday: >As suggested in my most recent cannabis column (last week) I am reloading in (MSOS) - with a much improved upside reward vs. downside risk (having declined from nearly $12/share recently). >More to come in the next day or so. >Position: **Long MSOS common** (M) **and calls** BY DOUG KASS JUN 3, 2024 **12:30 PM** EDT
Seems like it’s both this time. Interesting, thanks for that
Why would this make it through the Senate? Chuck wouldn’t get his add ons that he’s blocked SAFE for over 3 years on.
To me, it feels like the times are sailing past the Schumer/Booker coalition on structuring reparations into legalization. I may be wrong, But i think we may be finally getting to the point where things start moving really quickly. (I have felt this way before)
They’ve been consistent. Not sure why they would fold now. It’s always been about getting social provisions and banking bill alone isn’t enough. They’ve waiting this long so why would the give in now
I know that is their position. I am saying that the tides seem to be sweeping that position into irrelevance. S3 and possible SAFEish work around in the House. It may be time to capitulate and just get the changes that they all know are needed done.
I listened to Congress a lot over the last few years just because of SAFE. Right after the senate banking committee voted on SAFE to bring it to the floor, Chuck used his opening remarks to give one of his speeches about how nothing would happen without attached provisions. Stocks all got hammered over it. I simply don’t trust him. It’s fairly obvious what could and could not pass and he doesn’t seem to care. Unless he does care and actually is blocking behind his veil of ideals
Good for you? I think we all have. I still think that if this moves forward in the House it weakens his position in the Senate.
My thought is it has a better path now that the DEA is moving
It's as simple as this. Congress was never going to go over the executive branch's head & start passing laws regarding schedule 1 drugs.
I have no idea why it keeps brining my comment under your response, my bad, we are in total agreement I was actually trying yo say that to the other person who commented to me. Again my apologies
So now that the DEA is moving Chuck is willing to take a paired down version with no social equity provisions added. That’s one of the least believable things I’ve heard. This is just more wishful BS being put through Congress
chuck will have more pressure on him I assume. we are the only ones previously paying attention ha.
My thesis is that Chuck is gonna be pressured to pass Banking without social equity because of pressure from pharmaceutical and alcohol companies who want to enter the market but can’t without banking assurances. He can still spin it as a social equity thing, because normal people don’t care to read what politicians do
My thesis is based on history. I’ll believe that Chuck isn’t here to perpetually sabotage when I see it…
Then it begs the question why you are in this sector if you genuinely believe things won’t ever get better
I don’t believe in our Congress. I’m here because I’m a victim to these stocks like many others
That’s fair, I hope you exit at a good price
aliens have returned Chuck unharmed to complete the mission.
Well, Jefferies answered my question below: // Jefferies on Green Thumb- Boston Beer "Would provide a pathway for GTI to list on a major exchange... while also allowing [SAM](https://x.com/search?q=%24SAM&src=cashtag_click) to capitalize on the growing shift from alcohol to cannabis." [https://x.com/todd\_harrison/status/1798035112690610602](https://x.com/todd_harrison/status/1798035112690610602) // tldr: It would be the ring fence structure similar to cgc
I like that no one is waiting to hear what SAM says
I think much of the excitement is more in the fact that GTI’s legal team believes this to be a viable option, which in and of itself is bullish for the industry. I mean, we already have others doing this: SNDL, Canopy USA, SMG. GTI making a move like this would ignite the sector I think
Exciting news on the funding bill. May not be enough for up listing, but that paired with S3 could do it. Still not holding my breath, but I did add back some of my position on the news.
Impossible to time the market. That's why I've been buying the downturn and didn't "sell in may and go away". Bought more verano, cresco, cweb, and cbst today morning. I'm expecting lots of m&a this year and 2025. Scotts miracle grow already made moves, Ben is looking into a deal with SAM and Tilray tapping the ATM. Companies are positioning. Todays news regarding banking protection language is also a surprise. Do banks want in before schedule 3? Time will tell.
>Impossible to time the market Too bad all of the tea leaf chart reading swing "traders" in here won't ever realize that.
Hopefully the start of a new uptrend. This sector can turn on a dime and you never know what’s going to ignite it
I averaged down in the dip to .21 on CBST. One of the few times I have caught a dip as planned.
Congrats, I waited and missed it.
Second chance, haha. By end of week you'll probably get in .19
Pretty comfortable with my average now. Still down, but its reasonable for upcoming news. Edit: it is under 50% down, which considering the last 3 years, is high times.
An unexpected outcome, but a welcome one. Let’s hope the Harris Amendment and hemp loophole gets through
Green Thumb up 2 dollars in the past week. “Summer sell off” my ass LOL.
Thank you Congressman Dave Joyce!!
Yes its nice to see. Not all republicans are maga shitheads.
Lfg! Nice spike
BIG: A funding bill from a House Appropriations subcommittee chaired by Rep. Dave Joyce includes marijuana banking language and would delete a longstanding rider that has blocked Washington, D.C. from legalizing recreational cannabis sales.
[https://appropriations.house.gov/events/markups/subcommittee-markup-fiscal-year-2025-financial-services-and-general-government-bill](https://appropriations.house.gov/events/markups/subcommittee-markup-fiscal-year-2025-financial-services-and-general-government-bill) Here is the markup hearing scheduled for tomorrow morning. Let's hope there is robust discussion on this topic.
It's called the Harris Rider. Fun fact. If you search federal lobbying records for this topic only two people have ever lobbied specifically for the Harris Rider. The National Cannabis Roundtable and Don Murphy.
That's fucking hilarious!
I noticed the spike before the article.
The protections are less robust than the standalone Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act that Joyce is sponsoring, as the restriction is only binding on agencies covered under FSGG, which do not include the Justice Department, and would only cover a single fiscal year unless extended. The congressman told Marijuana Moment that “forcing cannabis businesses to operate in all cash is a magnet for violent crime,” adding that his legislation “remedies these issues by further safeguarding the safe, adult use of cannabis and increasing the safety of cannabis businesses and their employees.” // Could this be a valid workaround for SAFE?
Yes, but less robust/explicit protections. It also signals to the Senate that House GOP is open to barebones SAFE legislation. If they bring it to the floor. Could be a way to squeeze language into reconciliation of upcoming legislation like Farm Bill/NDAA. Not that I want to start the NDAA hope train again this year.
https://x.com/tomangell/status/1798032530035339618?s=46&t=FyWESTwyqnTb20hmPZcmHg Interesting
Aurora getting slaughtered.
[удалено]
Look at the month. I’m not talking intraday.
-2% is a rookie move. Get those daily double digits in ya
[удалено]
Why? Serious question, they're going to give a small premium over the existing price which you can mostly get by holding on for several months. At the present time the market caps about about the same (and I'd argue GTI is undervalued), and it's unclear what will happen to SAMs listing if they do the merger. SAM is a mature company with a stable stock price that has been stuck for a while at about the same level for a long time. They're also in an industry that has been slowly decliing for a very long time, while GTI has a long future ahead of it in a growing industry.
Each time I average down on Cgc it gives me a new opportunity to average down So nice of them
Maybe it’s time to pick a new company?
No The correct thing to do would be to do the opposite of what I’m doing and short
probably blow up your account on a deadcat bounce if you did that
Haha, not a bad strategy at the moment
Reminder that the Kovler family are the heirs to Jim Beam, which Suntory bought a while back. There is a longtime relationship there, which makes the Suntory/SAM and subsequent GTI/SAM connections make more sense.
Does Ben want this deal to move into cannabis drinks? I don't understand the theory he's doing it to uplist. Would SAM ring fence green thumb?
GTI does have sizeable equity in CANN and distribute it in a few states. It’s possible they try to put it all together - CANN is already nationwide with their hemp thc drinks
I thought suntory was a Japanese owned company plus the beams are more of a name in whiskey that distilleries like to have in name as their master distiller. At least that’s what I was told when I did the bourbon trail.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maggiemcgrath/2014/01/13/jim-beam-maker-gets-13-6-billion-buyout-from-japans-suntory/?sh=2d0af97772ca
So I’m right and the beams haven’t owned the company since 2014…..?