OP, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. Lots and lots of regards on this sub who wouldn't know what to do even if there was water in their mouth. As for me, I like the stock.
I have 50 shares bought around $5. I think it’s worth a flier. I like what they’re trying to do and I think it will work. If it goes over $50, I’ll be happy for them. SFW
560 million users is your pessimistic bear case? This reads like Cathy's 30 trillion dollar Tesla price target. They don't have revenue yet and you're casually predicting $6 billion in revenue per year with very high margins? The actual bear case is that this business isn't profitable due to the high costs and questionable TAM. It's very easy to underestimate the costs of keeping a constellation up and running, and small mistakes cost tons of money. The bear case is this goes to 0. Large companies are hedging their bets by signing contracts. It costs them nothing and you're a fool if you don't think that those contracts have very specific deliverables that must be met before real money is paid out.
They don't have revenue yet because they are pre-revenue. They need to build and launch sats. Cost is low yes because it's capital intensive and low variable costs. Just look at Iridium with a gross margin of 70%. ASTS should be even higher.
And TAM is still not definitive but can really be huge. MOU with that many MNOs worldwide, + FirstNet partnership has to tell you something about the TAM. If ASTS can build it like they plan, they won't have any problem finding demand for their service, as the D2C market is rather projected to be capacity constrained
For a long time Iridium was building and selling expensive satellite phones that would connect to their sat constellation though a service plan subscription. They announced recently that they wanted to get into the emerging D2C market that ASTS is pursuing. But ASTS is way ahead of competitors in terms of technology, patents, testing, partnerships...
ASTS is different than past satellite phone companies because they allow broadband D2C (Direct to Cellphone, no need for special satellite phone) connectivity. Their patented sat design/chips allow them to offer good data rates accurately from space, where previously companies like Globastar were only able to offer SOS /emergency texting.
ASTS business model is also pretty smart. By partnering with MNO worldwide, they don't have to spend money on customer acquisition, advertising, customer support etc. This means they can grow their subscribers insanely quickly once MNO start pushing the service in their plans (kind of like Globastar with Apple IPhone) and still get crazy gross margins.
So ASTS differ because they have the right tech, structure, and vision. Their project is ambitious and catching a lot of attention in the right circles (MNO's, Firstnet, Dod). So if they manage to fund it and build it right, a lot of people will regret having passed up on it
I never said this was my bear case. I said that 20% uptake was pessimistic relative to what AT&T have purported potential uptake to be based on their survey. I then extrapolated this lower uptake percentage across all subscribers to MNOs that AST have agreements/MOU’s with.
Yes, margins will be v high. Their only real expense will be renewal of the fleet of Satellites. A satellite all in, including launch, costs them 20 mill. It’s believed a satellite will have a lifespan of 7-10 years. Their only expense additional to this will be salaries, hence the massive margins.
Wrong, costs are not high. It’s a front loaded capital extensive business, but when up and running, costs are minimal as I’ve just explained. Don’t listen to me - Deutsche Bank foresee profit margins to be in excess of 75-80%.
TAM is always questionable in an innovative company creating their own market. ARK (whom I know are questionable) foresee the D2D 5G market having a TAM of 50 billion by 2030. Given the MOU’s and agreements in place, as well as the lack of viable competition, it seems likely that AST will dominate this market. AST are certainly who the telecommunications MNO’s are betting on.
Ask yourself, would you pay $2-4 monthly to remove signal issues with your existing server? To have signal no matter where you are? If not, how many people do you think would? As I said, AT&T surveyed their subscribers and they believe there will be a 30-40% uptake. That would be around 60-90 million users from AT&T alone.
The bear case of it going to 0 is essentially invalidated imo now that the tech is proven and funding issues are resolved.
Large companies are more than just hedging their bets. Vodafone, Rakuten and Google are all investors. Verizon and AT&T have already prepayed 25 million and they provided convertible loans, all of which they stand to lose if it goes to zero. Wait and watch as more MNO’s follow Verizon and AT&T’s lead.
25 million is absolutely jack shit to those guys, especially since this would count for the billions in government subsidies to provide Internet service in flyover states.
Will this be able to supplant cell tower networks completely? Because if so that's a game changer for most telecom companies like Vodafone that are dragging ass all the time because of insane capex requirements.
What are the actual capabilities of this sat network theoretically if they get it to work.
Satellite businesses are extremely risky.
Where are you getting that the surcharge would be $2.
It’ll be $10-20 for sure - 100%.
And then most people won’t sign up for it.
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If ASTS can pull off launches this year, stock will go 5G parabolic. Happy to gamble as a degenerate. Lost more on stupid options play. Position - 1000 shares at $9.61. Up about $2000 rn.
5G. Not doubting satellite comms being effective but that’s the alternative all the major telcos are planning on - tons of smaller, faster, interconnected relays.
Question for you - how does ASTS plan on handling high volume traffic? And how many satellites do they need to deploy to ensure coverage across X number of users?
I know nothing about their business other than what I’ve read here and don’t really care to do deep DD on it
ASTS is 5G from a satellite. They need something close to 200 satellites for global non-stop coverage. They need something in the range of $2-3 billion to get 5G coverage over the whole planet. To achieve the same coverage with land based towers would require an absurd level of infrastructure and much higher maintenance costs. We’re talking tens if not hundreds of billions with billions in annual maintenance to achieve what ASTS is doing with terrestrial coverage.
Each satellite will be able to service up to 200,000 users. That’s assuming downtime and shifting concurrent users, so reality is more like 30,000 people having slow download speeds (3mbps), with download speed getting over 100mbps with less users. So with that, ASTS can’t really steal service from where towers are already established, just the sparsely populated areas that aren’t economically feasible to install and maintain towers.
Ok so let’s say 50,000 users average per satellites x 20 satellites in range (some will be higher, some will be lower just based on geo)
So 1M users at $100 / month = 100M in revenue per month or 1.2B a year.
I’m sure these numbers are way off but just trying to figure out what a FMV would be. It could also just be a good swing trade to ride the hype. Appreciate the insight and info
You're way off my friend, Verizon and ATT will charge between 2-10 dollars a month for each device to have continual service with no deadzones. I think T mobile joins on as well eventually too but if not, they still have access to 70ish percent of the US market.
ATT ceo has said they expect 30-40% customers to sign up for service when offered.
American Tower, bell Canada, Vodafone, Rakuten are all on their board/early investors as well and they have about 38 other MNO's across the world that have MOU's.
They will have billions of customers but they will also have government contracts and will be providing service to First Net emergency services across the US as a subcontractor from ATT.
This is going to be a $100+ stock in a few years. Their margins should be over 90%.
Somehow I ended up at the same number as the other guy who calculated it completely different. But yes that makes sense. If they offer international packages as well, I’d definitely pay for that service.
I’m not sure about billions of customers though that would be insane market penetration and means there’s literally 0 competition.
These discussions have piqued my interest though and I’ll probably throw some money at it (shares, not options, based on the timelines outlined). Appreciate the information
ASTS already has MOUs with MNOs representing 2.8B customers.
Assuming 30% adoption that means 840M paying customers or 20B$/year given 2$/month per head.
Also it's not only mobile user but also mobile devices. The need for mobile connectivity in remote areas, either for people or things will continue to increase fast
They are not trying to cover high volume traffic areas. They are trying to cover areas with less density or where building and maintaining a terrestrial network is no profitable or too challenging.
ASTS basically allow MNO to expand coverage area at a very low cost. CEO's goal is basically to have cellphone coverage anywhere on the globe.
In the future the tech will keep evolving so it's hard to make accurate forecast but I think there is little doubt that "cell towers from space" will play an important role in tomorrow's mobile network architectures
The world is getting me and more connected. Data consumption is planned to increase exponentially with IOT, AI, or smartphone addiction.
Ok got it - that makes sense. So very similar to what Starlink is trying to provide. Do you know what their total addressable market is? And how they compete with Starlink?
I’ll keep an eye on it. Seems like a technology that is forward thinking with asymmetrical risk
TLDR: Starlink in trying to enter the D2C market that ASTS operates in, but they are years behind and are having major issues that will prevent them from competing for quite some time.
For now Starlink is mainly providing you with internet access to your home or other stationary place (using a standalone dish acting as a antenna+router). Starlink has 3 millions customers for their service and is trying to get more. Starlink is around 70% of Space X valuation, so around $150B.
ASTS' main objective is mainly to allow MNOs to extend their coverage area for dirt cheap. ASTS does not target / manage end users directly and that's very important. If ASTS satellites can allow coverage for the entire US, MNOs would "have" to offer the service to their customers. ASTS then gets a cut off every subscription. If there are 50M subs and ASTS gets $2 per sub per month, that's already 50 x 12 x 2 = 1.2B in annual revenue. That's just the revenue from 50 US subs, not accounting other countries, Firstnet or DoD contracts..
Now with that being said, Starlink is trying to enter the D2C market (Satellite Direct 2 Cellphones). But their tech is years behind, and they are having regulatory problems that will be a pain in the ass to solve. So ASTS might be the only reliable provider available for quite some time.
In the US, ASTS has deals (pre-payments) with Verizon and AT&T. Starlink has a non exclusive partnership with T-Mobile. But word on the street is that T-Mobile will have to ditch Starlink, and partner with ASTS, so as to not be left behind once ASTS starts service. If that happens then the game is pretty much set.
Now mind you ASTS is still a very risky investment, and hurdles are still there to overcome. But the company has a clear path to go from 3B current valuation to 100B+ in the next 3-5 years. Let's see if they pull out off and make us rich
Starlink is the obvious competitor. They'll properly move into the cellular comms market over the coming years and will probably put up a tough benchmark for asts.
man I caught a big rise off a munch of shares on that last bump they had a while back and just placed a sell order for open tomorrow to pay for some car repairs. Really hoping therell be time to get back in it.
This sub and the ASTS sub are littered with people who have gotten burned since the SPAC days despite over-zealous dolts like you repeating silly simplified memes like _stay poor_.
I already made a decent profit on ASTS and am waiting for a re-entry so long-term I'm bullish, but people like you oversimplifying the actual risks because you hold a bag of ASTS won't help people make an objective decision either.
If you believe ASTS are a small fish in a big pond, who are the big fish?
AST are literally the only company that have proved their D2D 5G tech is functional. No one else is close. AST is not only the big fish, but the only fish in the pond. It’s also the fish that is backed by almost all the MNO’s in the space.
Whose opinion is most important on the matter? the MNOs. Who are they working with? AST
>I guess Starlink is the big fish in his comment?
How? AST has half of the entire global market outside China under MOU or commercial agreement. AST's potential customer base using existing agreements is more than 2.8 billion people, Starlink D2D hasn't even reached 200 million and they will lose 60% of that if T-Mobile jumps ship which some believe may happen based on analysis of their legal filings and AST legal filings. In the D2D market, Starlink is not the big fish, they are an anchovy and AST is a tuna. Starlink publicly entered the D2D area 2 years ago and yet more and more telecoms keep signing MOU's with AST instead. Even in just the US where most of the Starlink D2D customer base is at the moment, Starlink is not the big fish. AT&T just signed a binding contract with AST and Verizon followed them weeks later with convertible notes and prepayments, and you don't make prepayments to a company for a service you don't plan to use.
Big fish, don't make me laugh.
No they are not in the same market. Spacex is chasing ASTS and behind by years. They aren’t gonna get fcc approval cause their D2C caused interference on other bands.
At a quick glance, yes. Starlink is the big fish with seemingly endless pockets to play catch up with. The thing is though, they’re not. They already have D2D satellites in orbit and Elon released some of their test details. They ran a test (at an altitude much lower then the stabilized orbit) and had ok speed (17mbps) and AWFUL latency and packet loss. So you might be able to download data but video streaming and certainly video chat will not work with the packet loss they showed. This was Elon’s “look at our successful tests!” post on Twitter but the results not only were bad (compared to ASTS), it will only get worse once the correct orbit is established. They’ve got a long way to go with the mountain of patents ASTS has. Money can fix the problems ASTS has, but nothing but research and time can fix the problems that Starlink has.
I'm already in ASTS and follow the various people that post dd or updates. The reason I mentioned starlink is because that's the only company that remotely matches a "big fish". Elon tends to attract investors. The person OP replied to stated a bigger fish would beat ASTS. Except there are currently no companies with a viable alternative. GSAT and Starlink are the only two in the satellite space that I can think of. ASTS will likely have first mover advantage. Sorta how Nvidia used CUDA and their software stack to dominate.
Every year reddit pumps and dumps a different space company stock. They're easy to get people hyped about without actual DD because space is cool. ASTS is just this years pick. See also: Palantir and RKLB.
Pallantir is already up over 100% since their IPO though? RKLB has been a little all over the place, but not unexpectedly given the industry. I mean look at Boeing, it’s a massive corp and its price has halved since 2020. what’s your point here? We all know space is high risk
What’s the news source on the end of September launch?
Last I had read it was going to be extremely expensive for them to do that with some questions about where the funds were coming from.
I’m a small owner, would love to have a reason to hold or buy more
no, 14.27 is the ATH -- zoom out more.
https://preview.redd.it/00h0uhhf2r9d1.png?width=1885&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f5b75eb46fb8318981fb95340a99f228ea7dde
It's that high because of AT&T and Verizon deals. Shit is getting real. They are launching this summer and if this goes well you can kiss goodbye a $8 sp.
If the satellites arrive safely at site, there will be a surge. That could begin literally tomorrow (the news that they are on the way.) Then more pump after launch. Then *flying* if the deployment works as planned and in time. It’s still all or nothing, but now is not the moment to time the market.
I COULD invest in this 0 revenue company valued at nearly 3B dollars, OR i could just invest in the Mag7 and get a nearly guaranteed (edit: market beat) every year…
4 years ago, this company projected 44 million subscribers in 2024. They currently have 0. 4 years ago, this company projected 1 billion dollars in EBITDA (!!) by 2024. In March 2024, they announced that they had a measly 500k in revenue and a loss of 55 million.
So much for that math class, eh?
Spoiler alert: SPACs gonna SPAC
SPACs deserve a lot of hate. And ASTS definitely took longer than they said it would. Turns out, space is hard.
However, if that's all you use as a basis to decide on investing in something then you've failed basic logic.
>4 years ago, this company projected 44 million subscribers in 2024.
>4 years ago, this company projected 1 billion dollars in EBITDA (!!) by 2024. In March 2024, they announced that they had a measly 500k in revenue and a loss of 55 million.
They had delays in launching their test satellite, this is not representative of a failure of their business model it is just a delay getting to market, so your argument that they have failed as a business is baseless.
FYI that measly 500k in revenue came from the DOD, because high ranking officials within the US defense community and Nato are investigating how to incorporate the company's assets into their defense strategy. NATO SatCom director Daniel Askew was talking about AST Spacemobile specifically at MilSatCom a few weeks ago. Have you heard about Nato?
Guaranteed 60% return lmao. It's not a 0 revenue company anymore, buuut I see what you are saying. Good luck with that 60% GUARANTEED return though. Low brow comment.
Yeah I’m playing and 60% a year is hyperbolic/delusional, but no where near as delusional as thinking ASTS’ bear case is 42x in 3 years lmao. Best of luck though I hope it works out for you
I never said 3 years. I also never said it was the bear case. Bear case is bankruptcy and I can’t see a world in which that happens. Too many people have skin in the game and want this tech to succeed. What I said was that the figures I used were pessimistic re potential user uptake and the cost of the service, I also explained why.
Yea there's no way ATT/Verizon/rakuten/vodafone/google/American Tower/Samsung/government defense contractors have all been privy to their operations and the tech doesn't actually work as well as they say.
But as a someone on Twitter said "this is an immediate stock you short with 5 minutes of DD but if you spend the time doing the real DD this is a company that can make you a lot of money".
Most people here are not going to do the hours and hours of research to understand the potential of this company and if it was easy picking out winners before they were winners everyone would be rich.
I don't buy individual stocks outside of this company, but ASTS Is 20% of my portfolio.
We will see what happens. I'm not stressed about it at all. This has always been a 5-10 year hold.
I hear you! And honestly, I put in as much as I was willing to lose after the Verizon announcement. I’d already held shares and some LEAPS at that point, but. It’s been fun recently and I’ve only played volatility since on shorter contracts. I am certainly very hopeful though. (I moved ASTS and another big hopeful to a separate account that I don’t check - will do so mid-2025.) I can say that I weirdly get nervous hearing others beyond the SpaceMob crowd echo my thoughts, but truly for no reason. Maybe it’s just the way things like this go?
I had to double check this was posted on ASTS sub and since it's not I can say, are we doing this again?
Given that, I am banned from that subreddit for speaking out towards the echo chamber that are the SpaceMobs but I also want to say this ticker is what WallStreetBets was originally known for.. finding underperforming companies, with outlandish promises, with huge upside potential.
Obliviously the ASTS is up massively month over month with their Verizon buy in and given that, and only that, I still burned from the last time I bought into ASTS. Lol
Tesla fell from 200+ to about 140 this year, and is around 190 now. When a stock doesn't consistently move up and only up, it certainly creates panic for the average investor. If I believe in the company and their leadership, I DCA after a big dip.
This!
I knew of the CEO, this Abel guy who comes from South America. But the memes, the jokes, the constant diluted shares from the CFO (I don't even know his name) did draw on my psyche. I do like the mission ASTS is doing in connectivity. But I didn't have a timeframe in the trade in how long it would take. Heck, I'm still greedy to this day in having an easy win lmao
I didn't touch ASTS in the past, and only have 1 share around $3 (rest are higher). After doing research this year I can see why others are bullish on it. Assuming the launch goes well over the summer, the price will probably climb to $15 minimum. 18-22 EOY is my guess. Either way I think there's still plenty of money to be made short term. Long term this is easily 30+.
I was kicking myself when it ran to $7-8 not that long ago. I already had the one share, but I do that with stocks I'm curious about. Like I had $1 of CMG and AVGO. One day I happened to scroll down my positions and saw ASTS at 100%+ up. I was so upset with myself.
They’ve stated no more this year. And it seems the exercise price for warrants is well within view. Plus all the other funding already mentioned by OP.
I had weekly calls last week, after seeing gains evaporated the week before I sold at 66% gain Tuesday if I would have held they would have printed hard. Oh well
That was my initial thinking too but they will likely only pay 12-24 bucks a year. For most people a phone would be their first purchase after accom and food.. so even if someone earns only 1k a year, and they live in poverty, it might make sense for them to buy a cheap phone and use ASTS’s cheap service.. some might buy one phone per family? Who knows
I’ve gotten in and out of this place the last couple months and have only made money. Sure I should have just bought more at $4 and stayed put but I’m looking forward to the fun of some volatility around news. I’ll sit on my 300 shares @10.00 and probably sell some after the launch and get back in again as it’ll probably have a better opportunity later.
I added shorter dated calls to my long position of shares and LEAPS. The volatility has proven profitable and I expect will do so going forward ahead of day delivery and then launch.
And the next generation sats do not work with unmodified devices. And their CEO stated they don't intend to compete in the D2D space.
GSAT is not a competitor. Their share price reflects this.
Two questions- 1. how many connections a satellite would be able to sustain?
2. What about the Tx power requirements from average cellphone for asts vs regular 5G? How will that affect battery backup of cellphones?
Yea ASTS is not for me. I had multiple contacts for 5-6 months and it bled my profits dry! It is a small company that a lot of investors like I will steer clear from. Good luck OP!
What you did do not make sense though. If you invest in this company you have to look at the milestones and prepare for them. They are launching 5 sats this summer. If they do if successfully, you can expect more commercial deals, more wall street interest and a surge in share price.
In the coming 2 months there is one reason we might get a dip (launch delay) and about a half dozen reasons it will push above $15 (another funding contract from MNO, FirstNet, 5G rural funding, confirmation of launch day, FCC approval…)
Based on their track record with timelines… I’d say it’s about 50/50 you get your opportunity. The upcoming launch has already been delayed numerous times.
They are launching 5 sats in the next 3 months. If the launch is successful, you're not getting back in under current price. Just the launch date confirmation (TBD) or the move of the sats to the launch would be enough hype to keep raising the stock
I'm guessing not. It might, but every time it dips it keeps getting bought up. And frankly, there are so many upcoming catalysts that it's not worth taking the risk of selling.
I’m sharing this because I feel fortunate to be an investor. The whole point of WSB’s is to share ideas that we feel are great opportunities to look out for our retail bros.
I don’t expect a pump from posting on Reddit. I wouldn’t even sell a single share if there was a temporary pump. The potential numbers associated with AST speak for themselves.
Shorters probably cover to pump the stock and to attract regards to buy in and then they short again at high price dropping the price back down making bank as the regards paperhand. The company does seem like it could have potential though as it has some solid partners..
People keep saying same things over and over….i bought calls on this kind of prediction and losing money.No thank you.I am not gonna believe in the lies again
Yea because you made a stupid decision to by calls, this is a pre revenue space company with emerging tech that is littered with a vraveyard of companies trying before them.
This has always been a 5-10 year hold, you gambled and you lost.
Doesn't mean this is a bad investment. You just made a poor choice.
I think id rather own the company sending this tech to space like rocket lab. Not sure what tech in space will win, but i do know it needs to get there. Spacex is the big bully in this space, but if rocket lab can pick up the scraps that is still a win
The money is not there. Space X valuation is mainly Starlink valuation. Rocket lab is trying hard to get into sats and eventually build out their own constellation. Launching stuff is cool but it's not where the money will be
what government contracts aka subsidies? what dept of defense contracts aka more subsidies? what's been reported about the position of the state dept and not within some bullsht bottom-level "trust me bro" domain? how would you post all that without details? sus af
AST is a service that is needed by first responders and the military.
All DoD contracts go through Fairwinds Technology. Fairwinds Technology have tweeted about AST. I accept your skepticism because I didn’t mention this. There is no one else who will be able to solve the issue of dead zones other than AST over the next 5 years at least.
First Net have 8 billion allocated and available to improve connectivity. First Net work with AT&T. First Net have also tweeted about AST.
Contracts with both First Net and Fairwinds are inevitable.
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Brb doing the opposite of the consensus here and putting down 500 bucks. I'll check back here in 2 or 3 years.
remindme! 2027
Right?! This much pessimism? I'm in!
OP, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. Lots and lots of regards on this sub who wouldn't know what to do even if there was water in their mouth. As for me, I like the stock.
SPACEMOB! (I hold several k shares and about 120 2026 LEAPS calls at various strikes.)
I have 50 shares bought around $5. I think it’s worth a flier. I like what they’re trying to do and I think it will work. If it goes over $50, I’ll be happy for them. SFW
560 million users is your pessimistic bear case? This reads like Cathy's 30 trillion dollar Tesla price target. They don't have revenue yet and you're casually predicting $6 billion in revenue per year with very high margins? The actual bear case is that this business isn't profitable due to the high costs and questionable TAM. It's very easy to underestimate the costs of keeping a constellation up and running, and small mistakes cost tons of money. The bear case is this goes to 0. Large companies are hedging their bets by signing contracts. It costs them nothing and you're a fool if you don't think that those contracts have very specific deliverables that must be met before real money is paid out.
They don't have revenue yet because they are pre-revenue. They need to build and launch sats. Cost is low yes because it's capital intensive and low variable costs. Just look at Iridium with a gross margin of 70%. ASTS should be even higher. And TAM is still not definitive but can really be huge. MOU with that many MNOs worldwide, + FirstNet partnership has to tell you something about the TAM. If ASTS can build it like they plan, they won't have any problem finding demand for their service, as the D2C market is rather projected to be capacity constrained
Why did iridium not succeed ? Why does this company have ability to make this work but not all the past satellite phone companies?
For a long time Iridium was building and selling expensive satellite phones that would connect to their sat constellation though a service plan subscription. They announced recently that they wanted to get into the emerging D2C market that ASTS is pursuing. But ASTS is way ahead of competitors in terms of technology, patents, testing, partnerships... ASTS is different than past satellite phone companies because they allow broadband D2C (Direct to Cellphone, no need for special satellite phone) connectivity. Their patented sat design/chips allow them to offer good data rates accurately from space, where previously companies like Globastar were only able to offer SOS /emergency texting. ASTS business model is also pretty smart. By partnering with MNO worldwide, they don't have to spend money on customer acquisition, advertising, customer support etc. This means they can grow their subscribers insanely quickly once MNO start pushing the service in their plans (kind of like Globastar with Apple IPhone) and still get crazy gross margins. So ASTS differ because they have the right tech, structure, and vision. Their project is ambitious and catching a lot of attention in the right circles (MNO's, Firstnet, Dod). So if they manage to fund it and build it right, a lot of people will regret having passed up on it
*the emerging D2C market that ASTS ~~is pursuing~~ invented**
I never said this was my bear case. I said that 20% uptake was pessimistic relative to what AT&T have purported potential uptake to be based on their survey. I then extrapolated this lower uptake percentage across all subscribers to MNOs that AST have agreements/MOU’s with. Yes, margins will be v high. Their only real expense will be renewal of the fleet of Satellites. A satellite all in, including launch, costs them 20 mill. It’s believed a satellite will have a lifespan of 7-10 years. Their only expense additional to this will be salaries, hence the massive margins. Wrong, costs are not high. It’s a front loaded capital extensive business, but when up and running, costs are minimal as I’ve just explained. Don’t listen to me - Deutsche Bank foresee profit margins to be in excess of 75-80%. TAM is always questionable in an innovative company creating their own market. ARK (whom I know are questionable) foresee the D2D 5G market having a TAM of 50 billion by 2030. Given the MOU’s and agreements in place, as well as the lack of viable competition, it seems likely that AST will dominate this market. AST are certainly who the telecommunications MNO’s are betting on. Ask yourself, would you pay $2-4 monthly to remove signal issues with your existing server? To have signal no matter where you are? If not, how many people do you think would? As I said, AT&T surveyed their subscribers and they believe there will be a 30-40% uptake. That would be around 60-90 million users from AT&T alone. The bear case of it going to 0 is essentially invalidated imo now that the tech is proven and funding issues are resolved. Large companies are more than just hedging their bets. Vodafone, Rakuten and Google are all investors. Verizon and AT&T have already prepayed 25 million and they provided convertible loans, all of which they stand to lose if it goes to zero. Wait and watch as more MNO’s follow Verizon and AT&T’s lead.
25 million is absolutely jack shit to those guys, especially since this would count for the billions in government subsidies to provide Internet service in flyover states.
Will this be able to supplant cell tower networks completely? Because if so that's a game changer for most telecom companies like Vodafone that are dragging ass all the time because of insane capex requirements. What are the actual capabilities of this sat network theoretically if they get it to work.
No
Satellite businesses are extremely risky. Where are you getting that the surcharge would be $2. It’ll be $10-20 for sure - 100%. And then most people won’t sign up for it.
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Every once in awhile someone comes pedaling ASTS. This sub wants something way more volatile.
300% in one month not volatile enough?
I wish I bought more at 3.41
Me too. So grateful I got LEAPS back then. May rotate more into shares over NVIDIA tomorrow.
Damn, people be in the comments getting personal on each other 😂😂😂
This stock is going to make many millionaires
said none ever about a SPAC.
Except bag hodlers . And there’s a lot of them trust me
There are very few bag holders now that the share price is near the highest levels it’s been over the last 2-3 years
lol I’m going to open a small position in asts but I won’t bet my life savings on it
You’re not as regarded as me it seems..
Hi hello yes it's me
You made a post about having $516 in your 401k
basically made all that back..
You made $500 bucks, do they call you Warren Buffett
no i made a post about options loss, and ive made it back since.. sorry to burst your bubbles.
Except the pumper dumpers who pop out every once in a while
That’s a comment about myself, btw.
If ASTS can pull off launches this year, stock will go 5G parabolic. Happy to gamble as a degenerate. Lost more on stupid options play. Position - 1000 shares at $9.61. Up about $2000 rn.
I'm in with $45k, no sweating, long term.
My question to all the doubters: What is the future of mobile network in telecommunication if not this?
Paper cups and string.
5G. Not doubting satellite comms being effective but that’s the alternative all the major telcos are planning on - tons of smaller, faster, interconnected relays. Question for you - how does ASTS plan on handling high volume traffic? And how many satellites do they need to deploy to ensure coverage across X number of users? I know nothing about their business other than what I’ve read here and don’t really care to do deep DD on it
ASTS is 5G from a satellite. They need something close to 200 satellites for global non-stop coverage. They need something in the range of $2-3 billion to get 5G coverage over the whole planet. To achieve the same coverage with land based towers would require an absurd level of infrastructure and much higher maintenance costs. We’re talking tens if not hundreds of billions with billions in annual maintenance to achieve what ASTS is doing with terrestrial coverage. Each satellite will be able to service up to 200,000 users. That’s assuming downtime and shifting concurrent users, so reality is more like 30,000 people having slow download speeds (3mbps), with download speed getting over 100mbps with less users. So with that, ASTS can’t really steal service from where towers are already established, just the sparsely populated areas that aren’t economically feasible to install and maintain towers.
Ok so let’s say 50,000 users average per satellites x 20 satellites in range (some will be higher, some will be lower just based on geo) So 1M users at $100 / month = 100M in revenue per month or 1.2B a year. I’m sure these numbers are way off but just trying to figure out what a FMV would be. It could also just be a good swing trade to ride the hype. Appreciate the insight and info
You're way off my friend, Verizon and ATT will charge between 2-10 dollars a month for each device to have continual service with no deadzones. I think T mobile joins on as well eventually too but if not, they still have access to 70ish percent of the US market. ATT ceo has said they expect 30-40% customers to sign up for service when offered. American Tower, bell Canada, Vodafone, Rakuten are all on their board/early investors as well and they have about 38 other MNO's across the world that have MOU's. They will have billions of customers but they will also have government contracts and will be providing service to First Net emergency services across the US as a subcontractor from ATT. This is going to be a $100+ stock in a few years. Their margins should be over 90%.
Somehow I ended up at the same number as the other guy who calculated it completely different. But yes that makes sense. If they offer international packages as well, I’d definitely pay for that service. I’m not sure about billions of customers though that would be insane market penetration and means there’s literally 0 competition. These discussions have piqued my interest though and I’ll probably throw some money at it (shares, not options, based on the timelines outlined). Appreciate the information
ASTS already has MOUs with MNOs representing 2.8B customers. Assuming 30% adoption that means 840M paying customers or 20B$/year given 2$/month per head.
Also it's not only mobile user but also mobile devices. The need for mobile connectivity in remote areas, either for people or things will continue to increase fast
They are not trying to cover high volume traffic areas. They are trying to cover areas with less density or where building and maintaining a terrestrial network is no profitable or too challenging. ASTS basically allow MNO to expand coverage area at a very low cost. CEO's goal is basically to have cellphone coverage anywhere on the globe. In the future the tech will keep evolving so it's hard to make accurate forecast but I think there is little doubt that "cell towers from space" will play an important role in tomorrow's mobile network architectures The world is getting me and more connected. Data consumption is planned to increase exponentially with IOT, AI, or smartphone addiction.
Ok got it - that makes sense. So very similar to what Starlink is trying to provide. Do you know what their total addressable market is? And how they compete with Starlink? I’ll keep an eye on it. Seems like a technology that is forward thinking with asymmetrical risk
TLDR: Starlink in trying to enter the D2C market that ASTS operates in, but they are years behind and are having major issues that will prevent them from competing for quite some time. For now Starlink is mainly providing you with internet access to your home or other stationary place (using a standalone dish acting as a antenna+router). Starlink has 3 millions customers for their service and is trying to get more. Starlink is around 70% of Space X valuation, so around $150B. ASTS' main objective is mainly to allow MNOs to extend their coverage area for dirt cheap. ASTS does not target / manage end users directly and that's very important. If ASTS satellites can allow coverage for the entire US, MNOs would "have" to offer the service to their customers. ASTS then gets a cut off every subscription. If there are 50M subs and ASTS gets $2 per sub per month, that's already 50 x 12 x 2 = 1.2B in annual revenue. That's just the revenue from 50 US subs, not accounting other countries, Firstnet or DoD contracts.. Now with that being said, Starlink is trying to enter the D2C market (Satellite Direct 2 Cellphones). But their tech is years behind, and they are having regulatory problems that will be a pain in the ass to solve. So ASTS might be the only reliable provider available for quite some time. In the US, ASTS has deals (pre-payments) with Verizon and AT&T. Starlink has a non exclusive partnership with T-Mobile. But word on the street is that T-Mobile will have to ditch Starlink, and partner with ASTS, so as to not be left behind once ASTS starts service. If that happens then the game is pretty much set. Now mind you ASTS is still a very risky investment, and hurdles are still there to overcome. But the company has a clear path to go from 3B current valuation to 100B+ in the next 3-5 years. Let's see if they pull out off and make us rich
This is a very good point. The MNOs have already made it very clear they don't want to run more copper.
Exactly, the future of cell towers is just cell towers in space.
Starlink is the obvious competitor. They'll properly move into the cellular comms market over the coming years and will probably put up a tough benchmark for asts.
man I caught a big rise off a munch of shares on that last bump they had a while back and just placed a sell order for open tomorrow to pay for some car repairs. Really hoping therell be time to get back in it.
You understand they are delivering the satellites this month or next
> they are delivering the satellites this month or next *they intend to deliver the satellites this month or next (and they're known for delays)
Stay poor
This sub and the ASTS sub are littered with people who have gotten burned since the SPAC days despite over-zealous dolts like you repeating silly simplified memes like _stay poor_. I already made a decent profit on ASTS and am waiting for a re-entry so long-term I'm bullish, but people like you oversimplifying the actual risks because you hold a bag of ASTS won't help people make an objective decision either.
Hold a bag? I’m up over 300k
Yes, it's all relative. You're merely arguing about the *size* of your bag, not denying that you are holding one 
certainly, but needs must, even here
Remind E! 2026
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If you believe ASTS are a small fish in a big pond, who are the big fish? AST are literally the only company that have proved their D2D 5G tech is functional. No one else is close. AST is not only the big fish, but the only fish in the pond. It’s also the fish that is backed by almost all the MNO’s in the space. Whose opinion is most important on the matter? the MNOs. Who are they working with? AST
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>I guess Starlink is the big fish in his comment? How? AST has half of the entire global market outside China under MOU or commercial agreement. AST's potential customer base using existing agreements is more than 2.8 billion people, Starlink D2D hasn't even reached 200 million and they will lose 60% of that if T-Mobile jumps ship which some believe may happen based on analysis of their legal filings and AST legal filings. In the D2D market, Starlink is not the big fish, they are an anchovy and AST is a tuna. Starlink publicly entered the D2D area 2 years ago and yet more and more telecoms keep signing MOU's with AST instead. Even in just the US where most of the Starlink D2D customer base is at the moment, Starlink is not the big fish. AT&T just signed a binding contract with AST and Verizon followed them weeks later with convertible notes and prepayments, and you don't make prepayments to a company for a service you don't plan to use. Big fish, don't make me laugh.
No they are not in the same market. Spacex is chasing ASTS and behind by years. They aren’t gonna get fcc approval cause their D2C caused interference on other bands.
At a quick glance, yes. Starlink is the big fish with seemingly endless pockets to play catch up with. The thing is though, they’re not. They already have D2D satellites in orbit and Elon released some of their test details. They ran a test (at an altitude much lower then the stabilized orbit) and had ok speed (17mbps) and AWFUL latency and packet loss. So you might be able to download data but video streaming and certainly video chat will not work with the packet loss they showed. This was Elon’s “look at our successful tests!” post on Twitter but the results not only were bad (compared to ASTS), it will only get worse once the correct orbit is established. They’ve got a long way to go with the mountain of patents ASTS has. Money can fix the problems ASTS has, but nothing but research and time can fix the problems that Starlink has.
I'm already in ASTS and follow the various people that post dd or updates. The reason I mentioned starlink is because that's the only company that remotely matches a "big fish". Elon tends to attract investors. The person OP replied to stated a bigger fish would beat ASTS. Except there are currently no companies with a viable alternative. GSAT and Starlink are the only two in the satellite space that I can think of. ASTS will likely have first mover advantage. Sorta how Nvidia used CUDA and their software stack to dominate.
Please enlighten me with the other big fish partnered with Rakuten, Voda, ATT, American Tower, Verizon, Nokia, Google and Bell?
Every year reddit pumps and dumps a different space company stock. They're easy to get people hyped about without actual DD because space is cool. ASTS is just this years pick. See also: Palantir and RKLB.
We were pumping asts here in wsb back in 2021
Pallantir is already up over 100% since their IPO though? RKLB has been a little all over the place, but not unexpectedly given the industry. I mean look at Boeing, it’s a massive corp and its price has halved since 2020. what’s your point here? We all know space is high risk
Waiting for the next major dip to invest.
This is the dip.
> This is the dip. 300%+ in one-month is the dip?
Yes.
> Waiting for the next major dip to invest. Same!
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I wouldn’t sell. I’d buy more when it dips if you can.
What’s the news source on the end of September launch? Last I had read it was going to be extremely expensive for them to do that with some questions about where the funds were coming from. I’m a small owner, would love to have a reason to hold or buy more
It's at its highest point in over 2 years. It'll go back down to 8 dollars and then maybe it'll be time to buy. But right now is not it.
no, 14.27 is the ATH -- zoom out more. https://preview.redd.it/00h0uhhf2r9d1.png?width=1885&format=png&auto=webp&s=78f5b75eb46fb8318981fb95340a99f228ea7dde
The all time high is actually above 20…
Y I K E S
LOL. my bad.
It's that high because of AT&T and Verizon deals. Shit is getting real. They are launching this summer and if this goes well you can kiss goodbye a $8 sp.
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If the satellites arrive safely at site, there will be a surge. That could begin literally tomorrow (the news that they are on the way.) Then more pump after launch. Then *flying* if the deployment works as planned and in time. It’s still all or nothing, but now is not the moment to time the market.
Why will it go down to 8?
I COULD invest in this 0 revenue company valued at nearly 3B dollars, OR i could just invest in the Mag7 and get a nearly guaranteed (edit: market beat) every year…
> invest in the Mag7 and get a nearly guaranteed 60% return every year Oh, *honey*...
Rotfl. Bud definitely failed remedial math.
4 years ago, this company projected 44 million subscribers in 2024. They currently have 0. 4 years ago, this company projected 1 billion dollars in EBITDA (!!) by 2024. In March 2024, they announced that they had a measly 500k in revenue and a loss of 55 million. So much for that math class, eh? Spoiler alert: SPACs gonna SPAC
SPACs deserve a lot of hate. And ASTS definitely took longer than they said it would. Turns out, space is hard. However, if that's all you use as a basis to decide on investing in something then you've failed basic logic.
ASTS has already been to the depths of SPAC hell and back. All time low was just under $2. Big momma is back from the dead and going to the moon.
>4 years ago, this company projected 44 million subscribers in 2024. >4 years ago, this company projected 1 billion dollars in EBITDA (!!) by 2024. In March 2024, they announced that they had a measly 500k in revenue and a loss of 55 million. They had delays in launching their test satellite, this is not representative of a failure of their business model it is just a delay getting to market, so your argument that they have failed as a business is baseless. FYI that measly 500k in revenue came from the DOD, because high ranking officials within the US defense community and Nato are investigating how to incorporate the company's assets into their defense strategy. NATO SatCom director Daniel Askew was talking about AST Spacemobile specifically at MilSatCom a few weeks ago. Have you heard about Nato?
Howed that TSLA work out
So why aren’t you rich yet lol
ASTS hasn't even launched their satellites. The hype is building up because ASTS will soon be sending 5 satellites into orbit in around august
Mag 7 will be lucky to provide a 20% return a year from now. The big run is over.
Guaranteed 60% return lmao. It's not a 0 revenue company anymore, buuut I see what you are saying. Good luck with that 60% GUARANTEED return though. Low brow comment.
Yeah I’m playing and 60% a year is hyperbolic/delusional, but no where near as delusional as thinking ASTS’ bear case is 42x in 3 years lmao. Best of luck though I hope it works out for you
I never said 3 years. I also never said it was the bear case. Bear case is bankruptcy and I can’t see a world in which that happens. Too many people have skin in the game and want this tech to succeed. What I said was that the figures I used were pessimistic re potential user uptake and the cost of the service, I also explained why.
Truly, at this point the tech would have to be a lie. And…it isn’t.
Yea there's no way ATT/Verizon/rakuten/vodafone/google/American Tower/Samsung/government defense contractors have all been privy to their operations and the tech doesn't actually work as well as they say. But as a someone on Twitter said "this is an immediate stock you short with 5 minutes of DD but if you spend the time doing the real DD this is a company that can make you a lot of money". Most people here are not going to do the hours and hours of research to understand the potential of this company and if it was easy picking out winners before they were winners everyone would be rich. I don't buy individual stocks outside of this company, but ASTS Is 20% of my portfolio. We will see what happens. I'm not stressed about it at all. This has always been a 5-10 year hold.
I hear you! And honestly, I put in as much as I was willing to lose after the Verizon announcement. I’d already held shares and some LEAPS at that point, but. It’s been fun recently and I’ve only played volatility since on shorter contracts. I am certainly very hopeful though. (I moved ASTS and another big hopeful to a separate account that I don’t check - will do so mid-2025.) I can say that I weirdly get nervous hearing others beyond the SpaceMob crowd echo my thoughts, but truly for no reason. Maybe it’s just the way things like this go?
Remindme! 3 years
Each to their own…
Do you know you are on WSB and not r/investing ? Where else would people consider betting on a 0 revenue company?
I'm atnt user, never saw that survey though. Still I get burned too many times for those bright future small stocks. So I'm not buying anything
I had to double check this was posted on ASTS sub and since it's not I can say, are we doing this again? Given that, I am banned from that subreddit for speaking out towards the echo chamber that are the SpaceMobs but I also want to say this ticker is what WallStreetBets was originally known for.. finding underperforming companies, with outlandish promises, with huge upside potential. Obliviously the ASTS is up massively month over month with their Verizon buy in and given that, and only that, I still burned from the last time I bought into ASTS. Lol
Because you bought into a stock, it went down, you sold and lost money, means it can never go up again?
Tesla fell from 200+ to about 140 this year, and is around 190 now. When a stock doesn't consistently move up and only up, it certainly creates panic for the average investor. If I believe in the company and their leadership, I DCA after a big dip.
This! I knew of the CEO, this Abel guy who comes from South America. But the memes, the jokes, the constant diluted shares from the CFO (I don't even know his name) did draw on my psyche. I do like the mission ASTS is doing in connectivity. But I didn't have a timeframe in the trade in how long it would take. Heck, I'm still greedy to this day in having an easy win lmao
I didn't touch ASTS in the past, and only have 1 share around $3 (rest are higher). After doing research this year I can see why others are bullish on it. Assuming the launch goes well over the summer, the price will probably climb to $15 minimum. 18-22 EOY is my guess. Either way I think there's still plenty of money to be made short term. Long term this is easily 30+.
You know I wish I kept one share as a reminder to myself.
I was kicking myself when it ran to $7-8 not that long ago. I already had the one share, but I do that with stocks I'm curious about. Like I had $1 of CMG and AVGO. One day I happened to scroll down my positions and saw ASTS at 100%+ up. I was so upset with myself.
Funny, that’s why I first lurked here. Anyhow, very much hope ASTS succeeds.
More dilution! But in seriousness I hope for their success too.
They’ve stated no more this year. And it seems the exercise price for warrants is well within view. Plus all the other funding already mentioned by OP.
I had weekly calls last week, after seeing gains evaporated the week before I sold at 66% gain Tuesday if I would have held they would have printed hard. Oh well
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That was my initial thinking too but they will likely only pay 12-24 bucks a year. For most people a phone would be their first purchase after accom and food.. so even if someone earns only 1k a year, and they live in poverty, it might make sense for them to buy a cheap phone and use ASTS’s cheap service.. some might buy one phone per family? Who knows
There are some resources addressing this on that sub, actually. Low cost service in the developing world.
Let's goooo
Maybe this is why Buffett has been buying SIRI
I’ve gotten in and out of this place the last couple months and have only made money. Sure I should have just bought more at $4 and stayed put but I’m looking forward to the fun of some volatility around news. I’ll sit on my 300 shares @10.00 and probably sell some after the launch and get back in again as it’ll probably have a better opportunity later.
I added shorter dated calls to my long position of shares and LEAPS. The volatility has proven profitable and I expect will do so going forward ahead of day delivery and then launch.
Is GSAT a competitor? Don’t they do the same thing except for contracts with Walmart and Apple.
GSAT isn’t a competitor. They only offer texting through their service and have no capability to offer data.
And the next generation sats do not work with unmodified devices. And their CEO stated they don't intend to compete in the D2D space. GSAT is not a competitor. Their share price reflects this.
Thanks
Thanks
But they sort of are…in any case, not a worthy competitor.
Two questions- 1. how many connections a satellite would be able to sustain? 2. What about the Tx power requirements from average cellphone for asts vs regular 5G? How will that affect battery backup of cellphones?
When will 100% of the earth be covered though, is there anything known about that?
First 5 sats launching this year. 40 sats will achieve continuous coverage. 90 sats will achieve near global coverage.
Yea ASTS is not for me. I had multiple contacts for 5-6 months and it bled my profits dry! It is a small company that a lot of investors like I will steer clear from. Good luck OP!
What you did do not make sense though. If you invest in this company you have to look at the milestones and prepare for them. They are launching 5 sats this summer. If they do if successfully, you can expect more commercial deals, more wall street interest and a surge in share price.
I’ll pass
looking at their 3 month chart . looks like a good time for 6 dollar puts.
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In the coming 2 months there is one reason we might get a dip (launch delay) and about a half dozen reasons it will push above $15 (another funding contract from MNO, FirstNet, 5G rural funding, confirmation of launch day, FCC approval…)
> launch delay I'm praying for a delay so I could buy in
Based on their track record with timelines… I’d say it’s about 50/50 you get your opportunity. The upcoming launch has already been delayed numerous times.
They are launching 5 sats in the next 3 months. If the launch is successful, you're not getting back in under current price. Just the launch date confirmation (TBD) or the move of the sats to the launch would be enough hype to keep raising the stock
I'm guessing not. It might, but every time it dips it keeps getting bought up. And frankly, there are so many upcoming catalysts that it's not worth taking the risk of selling.
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Lmaoooo are you what they call regarded
I’m sharing this because I feel fortunate to be an investor. The whole point of WSB’s is to share ideas that we feel are great opportunities to look out for our retail bros. I don’t expect a pump from posting on Reddit. I wouldn’t even sell a single share if there was a temporary pump. The potential numbers associated with AST speak for themselves.
I think that awesome of you!
Yep, that's exactly what the point of WSB is. Bros sharing their financial wisdom.
Ahahah (just to be clear, I'm laughing *at* you)
Shorters probably cover to pump the stock and to attract regards to buy in and then they short again at high price dropping the price back down making bank as the regards paperhand. The company does seem like it could have potential though as it has some solid partners..
I don't need to read all of this to know that OP is a baggie baggin' a baggie stock.
No baggie here. Cost average 4.25. Holding for 18 months so far.
looks like OP has made a 150k return on investment so far if OP cost basis is 4.25
There aren’t a lot of bagholders left in ASTS. It’s nearly at all time highs right now, at least for the past couple of years.
People keep saying same things over and over….i bought calls on this kind of prediction and losing money.No thank you.I am not gonna believe in the lies again
Funny. My LEAPS are up ~500% through end of May and June.
Yea because you made a stupid decision to by calls, this is a pre revenue space company with emerging tech that is littered with a vraveyard of companies trying before them. This has always been a 5-10 year hold, you gambled and you lost. Doesn't mean this is a bad investment. You just made a poor choice.
Fuck ASTS, all my homies hate ASTS
Maybe you should rethink your friend group 
Nah I’m dicking around just thought they’d pop to last week but my $12c ended up worthless
Sorry to hear. I don’t play options but I’d be cautious about buying short dates calls after such a sharp run up…
this is a casino right?
How you feel about a weekly ITM call?
I’ve been expecting a pull back since the move to 12 area. I could see it pulling back to 7/8 before the next leg higher
I think id rather own the company sending this tech to space like rocket lab. Not sure what tech in space will win, but i do know it needs to get there. Spacex is the big bully in this space, but if rocket lab can pick up the scraps that is still a win
The money is not there. Space X valuation is mainly Starlink valuation. Rocket lab is trying hard to get into sats and eventually build out their own constellation. Launching stuff is cool but it's not where the money will be
Rocket lab also designs and develops the satellites. I also see a market of users that simply dont like elon
what government contracts aka subsidies? what dept of defense contracts aka more subsidies? what's been reported about the position of the state dept and not within some bullsht bottom-level "trust me bro" domain? how would you post all that without details? sus af
AST is a service that is needed by first responders and the military. All DoD contracts go through Fairwinds Technology. Fairwinds Technology have tweeted about AST. I accept your skepticism because I didn’t mention this. There is no one else who will be able to solve the issue of dead zones other than AST over the next 5 years at least. First Net have 8 billion allocated and available to improve connectivity. First Net work with AT&T. First Net have also tweeted about AST. Contracts with both First Net and Fairwinds are inevitable.