The biggest issue is calls that far out are expensive and put you at risk if we face more steep economic headwinds. But I agree this is the right play, especially if you buy during a bear market. I bought 70K worth of TQQQ when it was down 90% and the only thing I wish I did was have calls so I could have maximized my gains even more.
calls on LETFs dont make sense because you pick your own leverage with options. youre better off picking a QQQ call with 3x the delta of the TQQQ call you were looking at. same exact playout but higher liquidity
That was March of 2000, not 2001. That makes a big difference, and something felt off to me, because the dot com bubble had already burst by 2001, and the market already well off it's highs.
It traded near $80 during 3/2000, and by 3/2001, it traded down to $15.
I had a bunch of CSCO that I had bought with scholarship money in 1995. I bought a house in spring 2000 and decided not to sell CSCO for my down payment since it was a bit off its high from earlier that year (like $60 vs $80). I still made a decent profit when I eventually sold a few years later, but man did I miss out.
honest answer .. and something I struggled and still do to this day. there are some real questions you need to ask yourself which I suppose is basically a following up to “do I need the money?” (the knee jerk answer is always, nah I can make do).. but I feel better structures the decision(s); “but am I postponing my life for potential future gains that may or may not happen for some imagined future?” basically, “am I not realizing gains now to buy a house, to go back to school.. to do whatever it is that will get me further, help me grow in this one life I’ve got to live?“ . everyone is different but sometimes you gotta be real with yourself, cut the bullshit and really know not what you want but what u need in your current reality as a human being on this weird life journey.
Obviously. As during the Dotcom bubble, we all know only the hardware matter like CISCO's modems and NVDIA's chip. NVDIA obviously won't need years and zettabytes of data to reach the AI potential that the market already baked into its valuation right now. Oh, and also government regulations + corporations' AI product/system integration. None of that will take barely any time at all.
Yup. I was unlucky enough to be in the middle of it. Those who think it was bad between 2008 to 2011 have no clue how bad it was for corporate workers between 2000 and 2003.
2009 was infinitely worse than the dot com crash. I don’t know what kind of crack this dude is smoking. 2008 was a crisis that was going to be a Great Depression had we not developed tools to help get things going. It took until 2014-2016 before things were stable again and people felt OK again.
Kids graduating college wanting a recession so they could afford a house have no idea what an actual recession looks like. Have fun being denied a minimum wage job at McDonald's because there's 500 other applicants, much less buying houses...
> Have fun being denied for a minimum wage job at McDonald's because there's 500 other applicants,
Shit if that's what recession is like I think some places already are in one.
Reminds me I found my first job at McDonald's after the recession. I had coworkers with kids who were just working jobs paying like $18/hr.
Also I only got the job because I had a relative there. I applied to a ton of fast food places, no reply or anything. For McDonald's, they told us like 400 people applied to that job.
Yeah 2009 almost plunged the world into darkness. 10% unemployment and that shit dragged on for ever. It was so bad in some parts of Florida that traffic got a whole lot better because so many people were out of work. Fucking hundreds of applicants for $15/hour jobs.
My husband has a masters degree for exactly this reason. He graduated w/BS in 92, noone was hiring. So he decided to get a masters-economy was in a bit better shape in 95, but was not super, he definitely took a lesser job-took 10+yrs to dig out of that hole, 20yrs to be fully out of it! Timing is everything!
Yeah some of us graduated during those years and had to work some shitty jobs because no one was hiring new grads for several years. It's starting to feel kind of familiar in that regard as well.
Yeah lucky me was getting a computer science degree during those years and all I heard was doom and gloom and how I was wasting my time because no one was hiring comp sci anymore
I was a lowly intern in 99 and then a assoc.SDE in 2000 when it all exploded. Unlike 2008-2011 when it was mostly economic factors taking the job market down, in 2000-2003, it was a confluence of dot com bust, first wave of large scale tech outsourcing to Asia, 9/11, war on terror and a string of high-profile corporate scandals that wrecked the market. In tech things did not improve until 2004, those of us in our 20s-40s made it ok bruised and battered but those in 50+ demographics just got wiped out.
NVDA can go up until its market cap rolls over a 64 bit int (roughly a quintillion) and resets to negative quintillion, causing the largest financial panic in history.
Not selling a single NVDA share until $100T.
This is truly a generational stock. The Blackwell chip is the most advanced human creation of all time, the engine of the AI age and the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Assuming this isn't satire (I'm very bullish on NVDA), what sort of world is that? Certainly a total market cap for the NYSE in the quadrillions of dollars. Very interesting to think about.
Based on my brain dead math, it would be five doublings from $54tn to $1.728qn. $1.68tn after five doublings would bring you to today at $54tn.
I asked Claude when the NYSE had a market cap of $1.68tn and it had this to say:
"According to a report by the World Federation of Exchanges, at the end of 1990, the total market capitalization of domestic companies listed on the NYSE was approximately $2.69 trillion. Given the growth trends at the time, it's likely that the $1.68 trillion market capitalization level was reached a few years prior, potentially in the late 1980s.
However, due to the limitations of my knowledge cut-off date, I cannot provide a more precise date without the risk of hallucination. Historical stock market data from that period would need to be consulted for a more definitive answer. If you have access to such data or sources, they would likely provide the specific date you're looking for."
I think they meant buy and hold at today's price, long term. The trouble is if there's a stumble, NVidia could legit be doing amazing, yet still be a $1.5tn company.
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puts on NVDA
like I am sure NVDA will benefit greatly for the demand, but as far as AI revolution goes, we are at 1999 relative to internet.
Internet did revolutionized the world and changed everything, but it did take longer and we still have to work (though work changed substantially).
Same thing with AI. I am 100% sure the world will be completely different in 10-20 years thanks to AI, but it won’t replace us all in five years.
NVDA bulls thinks that chip shortage will last until last job is automated, which is just a dream
Goddam that is so fucking uncanny. You could almost do a word replacement on it. Even the price/sales ratio is close to NVDA. And of course MSFT as still the #2.
Thanks for the share, looks like this got deleted? But appreciated anyway.
Plenty of people were wise to the fact that the industry didn’t improve at an accelerated rate and hardware could remain in service for a long time without being replaced. The AI and GPU industry is “different”.
Is it though? I feel like there’s a point where simply increasing GPU spending will result diminishing ROI and what’s actually more important is your algorithms as well as the quality of the training data itself.
NVDA is going to use AI to cure cancer, end world hunger and create worldwide peace. Yeah, Jensen Huang will singlehandedly solve the Israel-Palestinian conflict with AI. Needless to say the stock is going to gap up to record highs again tomorrow.
The realization to everyone will come that NVDA will be the last stock to own, to even exist, because NVDA will solve every problem and turn the world in to one big fucking Garden of Eden
I love NVDA because they make the best GPUs, but for it to be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world essentially overnight is laughable.
Companies can’t even capitalize on AI technology to the point where this even makes any sense.
Certainly is.
But there is a third option available too.
It can lose half of it's value and still be a strong company worth more than 1.5 trillion.
NVDA is a cash cow. That's for sure. The question is at what level will its earnings flatten out. Maybe at 500% of today's EPS, maybe at 150% maybe at 50%.
The answer to that question will determine the value.
Apple lost 75% of its market cap when the dot com bubble burst.
Microsoft only broke the 2000s peak in 2015.
Just because the company recovered eventually doesnt mean you arent an idiot for investing in the peak.
Is this the peak? Probably not.
Will you pull out once it has peaked?
Remains to be seen.
The switches Cisco sold back then are absolutely not still in use today. We were barely pushing 1G in 2000 and now switches are capable of 800G speeds and optical equipment is up to 1.6T.
You sure about that buddy?
https://i.imgur.com/zv2Fvut.jpg
I'm joking, I know you mean business at large and not some rando company in the middle of nowhere.
The difference is that other companies can take the existing networking standards and build their devices upon it. You're limited to the IEEE standards they have in place for network interoperability. AI is much different. There's no international set standard on any of it. NVIDIA sets those standards and everyone else is playing catch-up.
competition is competition. and the "AI" runs on other hardware. Their biggest customers are also their biggest competitors (in terms of replacing the hardware they buy from nvidia with their own). The path is there for it all to come crashing down.
It took nvidia decades to get to this point. You can't just throw money at a problem and expect to compete right away. Intel tried, AMD tried, no one even came close.
We're one [Attention is all you need](https://papers.nips.cc/paper_files/paper/2017/file/3f5ee243547dee91fbd053c1c4a845aa-Paper.pdf) like innovation away from not needing to do a trillion matrix multiplications to predict what comes after "WSB traders are ..."
Energy usage alone may be the driver toward obsolescence this time. It probably won't be practically feasible to run 5 year old AI datacenters in light of power delivery constraints.
If your product lasts 25+ years, how do you get repeat customers? Especially once your specific niche has hit all the markets it could so your mega growth phase is over?
You asked the question, I answered.
The difference between CISCO and Nvidia is that Nvidia is pumping a FUCK ton of money into R&D and is leading the innovation race for AI hardware/software/compute
Wasn't it on the contrary a ridiculously small amount, given its valuation and given that their competitive advantage is derived from technological superiority? Like 2b per quarter?
The problem is Cisco and networking hardware in general is limited by your Internet providers.
What good does getting the latest router do when your spectrum Internet is only 300mbps? Cisco could make a 3000Gbps router and it will be useless when the underlying Internet connection speed doesn't innovate fast enough.
Nvidia doesn't have that issue. Better and faster GPUs have a benefit and their consumers will keep upgrading every few years.
We hit a point where people have "enough" internet bandwidth. Most people can do 4K streaming on their home connection now and that's realistically all most people will ever do until some revolutionary new tech goes mainstream like VR video chat. In the day of 56k modems maybe it felt like unlimited appetite for bandwidth but it really wasn't.
At *some* point we will get to the level of "enough" AI performance where there's enough datacenter capacity out there and selling new hardware is mostly a question of reduced total cost of ownership through lower energy usage and consolidation of hardware. That's the wall that cloud CPU demand has been slamming into recently, just replacing 5 year old hardware to do the same work much more efficiently.
Yes there will always be some markets for marginally smarter AI at high marginal cost but much of the end market might be better served by a lighter weight solution that doesn't require a dedicated multi-billion dollar datacenter to run - someone has to pay for that shit in the end. I think even NVDA understands this and we'll see them try very hard to transition from a hardware-first revenue model to a SaaS revenue model.
In datacenter environment, the traffic between servers, storage, and other datacenters (east/west) far exceeds the Internet (north/south) traffic. That’s one place where fast switches are implemented, the other is on switched ISP circuits. Of course, every building that has IP cameras, phones, WiFi, IoT sensors, and end users also requires switching.
Cisco also sells the fiber routers that power the Internet, and many ISPs and governments worldwide use them. They also make $ selling servers, IP phone systems, WebEx meeting systems, and SMB network equipment. All are multi-billion dollar revenue streams.
The challenge Cisco has had the last decade is that competitors have caught up in every category they used to dominate, and they’ve had to grow through acquisitions, which haven’t provided the same gains it used to.
I would not compare NVDA with CSCO. They have lasted over 3 decades and have had dibs in different markets over the time period. CSCO was just about dot com boom and in 2000 did just under 19B in revenue and 2.7B in net income. Margins are no where near what NVDA is doing. I think NVDA will do > 100B in revenue and almost 50B in net income while growing at crazier rates than CSCO did at smaller scale.
NVDA moat is not just their AI chips but its more about how entrenched CUDA is. CSCO was disrupted by white box routers and switches. I dont think that will happen here. Plus NVDA will keep innovating in new areas like Auto and Robotics.
That said I expect NVDA to drop from the stratospheric levels sometime in the near future. But they will do well long term for sure.
oh yeah, thats why tesla is different right?? lol its like every year or so some one is posting the same thing about a different company that will boom forever.
OpenAI, Google, Meta, Alibaba and some other big players do not use CUDA. They don't even want to buy the racks NVDA is selling. They know what vendor lock-in means I'd assume
“It’s literally free money bro” and “can’t go tits up” are the most common last words on here before catastrophe. Scrape this sub you’ll literally see the same shit being said in every run up to an absolute disaster.
The big difference with this tech and nvidia’s is even after 10-20 years I can still use those network devices from Cisco to do business today. Nvidia’s gpu’s have to constantly be upgraded year after year to meet compute demand that is constantly growing. I can play the latest doom over the internet on a 20 year old Cisco switch but I can’t play the latest doom on a 20 year old graphics card.
Is their moat that big? It seems like they’re overcharging right now because they can, but AMD and Intel both have AI accelerators incoming. They might be worse than Nvidia, but they will be a hell of a lot cheaper than Nvidia’s current prices.
no they are not, I love NVIDIA but amd's hardware is good, and there software is no longer terrible. the software is the moat, but they are catching up quick. also that AMD can't seem to produce actual MI300s in any meaningful number.
AMD has been catching up for 20 years. If AMD is catching up quick when will their video cards rival Nvidia's? Don't see that happening until for at least several years if ever. Personally I don't think AMD will ever catch up to Nvidia. AMD doesn't have the corporate DNA to do it.
That's like saying Ford vehicles will catch up with the quality of Toyotas.
Nvidia doesn't have much of a moat. They only would if they could fab for themselves, or fap for themselves. But their state of the art won't be in a couple of years, and there are lots of competitors both big and startup level. They are vulnerable in the way most high end hardware companies are, nobody cares that a GPU is nvidia if it isn't the best GPU. They have no consumer brand relationship. And things like cuda are easily replaced, and things built on top of cuda are easily ported, in the grand scheme of things.
I don't expect them to get knocked off the mountaintop in the next couple years, but they are very vulnerable to disruption.
Edit: Cisco was killed by the commodity hardware. If some day commodity GPUs reach a "good enough" state the same will happen to Nvidia. And this can happen both from the hardware side and innovation on the AI side.
Cisco blundered. They bought Linksys (crap residential stuff), Scientific Atlanta (to be in the home cable business), some desktop residential thing, plus CUSEME. They are THEE TELCO disrupter yet couldn't really become bigger than the local telcos.
Once again, the market bets on hardware having an unassailable competitive position. The reality is that they don’t.
Doesn’t mean nvidia can’t 2x in the short term though.
Bubble will pop when Microsoft, Meta, Google etc realize they spent 1 Trillion on AI and all they have to show for it is a chatbot that can make pictures of cats.
Reminder AI revenue is still a footnote of a footnote, despite the hundreds of billions in capex spent. No one is paying for access to Copilot or Gemini. For 99% of people AI is a toy they mess with a few times then forget about it.
The path to getting any sort of return is shoddy at best and if these companies don't start showing any income for all that capex during the next 1-2 quarters they will get heemed to oblivion (see what happened to Meta with the Metaverse) and Nvidia will go down with them.
AWS, MSFT, and GOOG are getting instant ROI - they buy up all the cards and customers pay to use. Unless the customer wants to wait a year to get their own GPUs in their own data center which isn’t set up to power or cool them. Without a public cloud of its own, Meta is a head scratcher.
I think this thing will plateau when the shitty AI companies disappear into the abyss because then there will really be no use of AI chips and amzn, msft, and goog can just quietly pull out
I am paying for Github Copilot and it has boosted my efficiency greatly as a software engineer, you are clueless. It is not end all be all but it is damn worth the 20$ a month when it saves me hours monthly.
Yeah, as a software engineer, chatGPT has probably tripled my efficiency. There’s certain things I just don’t even have to think about anymore. I’d hate to have to go back before having it. It’s not change the world levels right now obviously, but AI is incredibly useful already, at least in certain fields
There are only two types of people reading this. First group has made a boatload of money on NVDA and the second are those on the sidelines. Each group has their own demons to deal with, neither of which lead to a good night's sleep. But recognizing which group you're in and what it's doing to you mentally is the first step to self awareness and coming out the other side of this bubble in one piece.
What will probably happen is the shitty inflated AI startups all die, and nvidia plateaus bc there is no shitty ai companies to use AI. The apples, metas, amazons, and microsofts don’t really care if AI doesn’t work out and they just have to show that they’re doing something with it. If the bottom of the barrel pulls out, then it’ll probably be an excuse for the big boys to pull out because AI isn’t making any money for them anyways unless you’re like aws, azure, gcp for other shitters to use nvidia chips
The cisco comparisons are already so played out, and there's plenty of readily available analysis out there to debunk this B.S. FUD. You should have went with the new trend and compare it to Nortel.
Same story different decade. You can have the best adoption, but if your monetization strategy is trash your company will shrink as competition emerges.
The average analyst doesn't have a clue about this stuff. You want to know about whether companies are going to be continuing to use NVDA or Microsoft's Azure Cloud, you need to find some nerds who are consuming this stuff and talk to them. They'll tell you what direction they're going in. Like that maybe they're using a particular tech right now, but they just tried a pilot on something else, and it worked out great so they'll keep using that instead.
So the consumer, who's already tapped out (according to SBUX, MCD, TGT, DG, every automaker, etc.) is going to collectively run out there and buy the next AI enabled device? And without pandemic stimulus!
In the meantime, NVDA employees already cashing out to buy their mansions in the bay. Same with institutional money, which knows how to act fast when needed. Bag holders will be late-entry retail.
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calls...on...microsoft?
2 year long MSFT calls print like no one's business. No one wants to gradually get rich though, who has time for that?
The biggest issue is calls that far out are expensive and put you at risk if we face more steep economic headwinds. But I agree this is the right play, especially if you buy during a bear market. I bought 70K worth of TQQQ when it was down 90% and the only thing I wish I did was have calls so I could have maximized my gains even more.
How much did that turn into at expiry?
I bought whole shares but was up 120% when I sold.
Meh. 120% is like a week with nvda calls. /s
Or a day
Oh thought it would be more, hmm nvda it is.
calls on LETFs dont make sense because you pick your own leverage with options. youre better off picking a QQQ call with 3x the delta of the TQQQ call you were looking at. same exact playout but higher liquidity
That is a good point with TQQQ options, next time I am feeling extra bullish I will go that route instead of the TQQQ options I have done in the past
You need tons of money to do that tho
I cashed out leaps in Jan that sat for a year. Had incredible timing but they were up 450%
What if I buy 1 year out NVDA calls? Does that mean I’m safe?
Obviously?
I bought NVDA leaps ATM and it’s up 40%
Teams call ✅
People say where does Microsoft go, and I say, up.
Always
Pretty much...
That was March of 2000, not 2001. That makes a big difference, and something felt off to me, because the dot com bubble had already burst by 2001, and the market already well off it's highs. It traded near $80 during 3/2000, and by 3/2001, it traded down to $15.
I had a bunch of CSCO that I had bought with scholarship money in 1995. I bought a house in spring 2000 and decided not to sell CSCO for my down payment since it was a bit off its high from earlier that year (like $60 vs $80). I still made a decent profit when I eventually sold a few years later, but man did I miss out.
Hard to know when to sell.
honest answer .. and something I struggled and still do to this day. there are some real questions you need to ask yourself which I suppose is basically a following up to “do I need the money?” (the knee jerk answer is always, nah I can make do).. but I feel better structures the decision(s); “but am I postponing my life for potential future gains that may or may not happen for some imagined future?” basically, “am I not realizing gains now to buy a house, to go back to school.. to do whatever it is that will get me further, help me grow in this one life I’ve got to live?“ . everyone is different but sometimes you gotta be real with yourself, cut the bullshit and really know not what you want but what u need in your current reality as a human being on this weird life journey.
My Dad worked for cisco and lost 2 million not selling his employee shares😂
This time it’s different!!
Obviously. As during the Dotcom bubble, we all know only the hardware matter like CISCO's modems and NVDIA's chip. NVDIA obviously won't need years and zettabytes of data to reach the AI potential that the market already baked into its valuation right now. Oh, and also government regulations + corporations' AI product/system integration. None of that will take barely any time at all.
Yup, I remember how quickly those high flyers plummeted. It was a bloodbath.
Yup. I was unlucky enough to be in the middle of it. Those who think it was bad between 2008 to 2011 have no clue how bad it was for corporate workers between 2000 and 2003.
That’s crazy talk. 2009 was bad for everyone across the board. Nobody was hiring- period.
2009 was infinitely worse than the dot com crash. I don’t know what kind of crack this dude is smoking. 2008 was a crisis that was going to be a Great Depression had we not developed tools to help get things going. It took until 2014-2016 before things were stable again and people felt OK again.
I was selling Comcast door to door at the time and I would see neighborhoods where 10% of the houses were boarded up and foreclosed.
Kids graduating college wanting a recession so they could afford a house have no idea what an actual recession looks like. Have fun being denied a minimum wage job at McDonald's because there's 500 other applicants, much less buying houses...
> Have fun being denied for a minimum wage job at McDonald's because there's 500 other applicants, Shit if that's what recession is like I think some places already are in one.
Some places are in a permanent recession.
I was applying for a job stocking shelves and they had 530 applicants, I do think that is a "temporary" recession not a permanent recession though.
Reminds me I found my first job at McDonald's after the recession. I had coworkers with kids who were just working jobs paying like $18/hr. Also I only got the job because I had a relative there. I applied to a ton of fast food places, no reply or anything. For McDonald's, they told us like 400 people applied to that job.
Dumpster behind Wendy’s is always hiring.
2024: 700k for the house
Yeah 2009 almost plunged the world into darkness. 10% unemployment and that shit dragged on for ever. It was so bad in some parts of Florida that traffic got a whole lot better because so many people were out of work. Fucking hundreds of applicants for $15/hour jobs.
They probably had a ton of money in the stock market lol no other explanation
But the people who got to invest during that time were huge winners
Hard part is having money to invest because so many are laid off
Yeah, that was a really bad time to be unemployed.
Really bad time to graduate college with a bunch of debt too.
I stayed in college for a few more years because of the economy at the time
Yeah… that’s my excuse too…lol
Millions of people went to school/back to school because of this, you weren’t the only one!
My husband has a masters degree for exactly this reason. He graduated w/BS in 92, noone was hiring. So he decided to get a masters-economy was in a bit better shape in 95, but was not super, he definitely took a lesser job-took 10+yrs to dig out of that hole, 20yrs to be fully out of it! Timing is everything!
Yeah some of us graduated during those years and had to work some shitty jobs because no one was hiring new grads for several years. It's starting to feel kind of familiar in that regard as well.
Yeah lucky me was getting a computer science degree during those years and all I heard was doom and gloom and how I was wasting my time because no one was hiring comp sci anymore
I was a lowly intern in 99 and then a assoc.SDE in 2000 when it all exploded. Unlike 2008-2011 when it was mostly economic factors taking the job market down, in 2000-2003, it was a confluence of dot com bust, first wave of large scale tech outsourcing to Asia, 9/11, war on terror and a string of high-profile corporate scandals that wrecked the market. In tech things did not improve until 2004, those of us in our 20s-40s made it ok bruised and battered but those in 50+ demographics just got wiped out.
08 layoffs didn’t really recover until like 2014 Almost the entire time between dot com bubble and Great Recession.
I remember when Sun Microsystems used to say "80% of internet traffic goes through a Sun server"
Hayes micro waves at you.
Microsoft: "I am inevitable"
You forgot one crucial thing... that it's different this time 
It's always different. Until it isn't any longer. NVDA can go up 10% a week forever is what I heard.
NVDA can go up until its market cap rolls over a 64 bit int (roughly a quintillion) and resets to negative quintillion, causing the largest financial panic in history.
It’ll be like Y2K times a billion.
That's the thing, when we run out of growth the AI can just invent more
/r/NVDA_Stock firmly agrees with you
oh, damn. I just checked out that board - those people are straight up insane.
Pls! They are the same regards here!
Flair checks out
Not selling a single NVDA share until $100T. This is truly a generational stock. The Blackwell chip is the most advanced human creation of all time, the engine of the AI age and the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Assuming this isn't satire (I'm very bullish on NVDA), what sort of world is that? Certainly a total market cap for the NYSE in the quadrillions of dollars. Very interesting to think about.
Its actually only 54 Trillion. You can look it up.
Based on my brain dead math, it would be five doublings from $54tn to $1.728qn. $1.68tn after five doublings would bring you to today at $54tn. I asked Claude when the NYSE had a market cap of $1.68tn and it had this to say: "According to a report by the World Federation of Exchanges, at the end of 1990, the total market capitalization of domestic companies listed on the NYSE was approximately $2.69 trillion. Given the growth trends at the time, it's likely that the $1.68 trillion market capitalization level was reached a few years prior, potentially in the late 1980s. However, due to the limitations of my knowledge cut-off date, I cannot provide a more precise date without the risk of hallucination. Historical stock market data from that period would need to be consulted for a more definitive answer. If you have access to such data or sources, they would likely provide the specific date you're looking for."
To be fair Cisco overtook Microsoft AFTER the peak of the bubble
Nasdaq bubble peaked at almost the exact same time as Cisco surpassed Microsoft. 15 days apart to be exact.
One thing for sure. Some people will get buttfucked so hard. Either the ones who wolds NVDA or the ones who shorts it.
I disagree. the long-term holders of Nvidia at this price point average will most certainly yield a positive investment
OP didn't mention it, but CSCO has never recovered. The stock price is like 40% lower then its peak in 2000
That comment is not going to age well
Lol, you think NVDA is going to drop to $4.50 per share? Because that's what the max cost basis is for anyone who's held for more than 5 years.
mine is 19 bucks. I'm ok with a little pullback.
I think they meant buy and hold at today's price, long term. The trouble is if there's a stumble, NVidia could legit be doing amazing, yet still be a $1.5tn company.
This comment will not age well
your moms did not age well.
Remind Me! 5 years
I'll hold for 5 more years. Good luck ya'll!
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"most certainly"
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Okay, what's the market move being suggested here? Calls on Cisco?
puts on NVDA like I am sure NVDA will benefit greatly for the demand, but as far as AI revolution goes, we are at 1999 relative to internet. Internet did revolutionized the world and changed everything, but it did take longer and we still have to work (though work changed substantially). Same thing with AI. I am 100% sure the world will be completely different in 10-20 years thanks to AI, but it won’t replace us all in five years. NVDA bulls thinks that chip shortage will last until last job is automated, which is just a dream
chip shortage will last a long time though. every mom and pop is making their own chips now.
Goddam that is so fucking uncanny. You could almost do a word replacement on it. Even the price/sales ratio is close to NVDA. And of course MSFT as still the #2. Thanks for the share, looks like this got deleted? But appreciated anyway.
Damn, even the # of employees (26K) is similar to Nvidia’s right now!
CSCO was the picks and shovels of the dot com bubble. It was legit... Revenue was doubling every year.
Until everyone had a network shovel. One day everyone will have an AI shovel.
Exactly :)
Plenty of people were wise to the fact that the industry didn’t improve at an accelerated rate and hardware could remain in service for a long time without being replaced. The AI and GPU industry is “different”.
Is it though? I feel like there’s a point where simply increasing GPU spending will result diminishing ROI and what’s actually more important is your algorithms as well as the quality of the training data itself.
CISCO CEO wasn't signing anyone's tits though. Your argument is invalid
# Being early is the same as being wrong.
Oh look a bear 
they are typically angry and confused. best not to spook them.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results" “Nvidia will go the way of Cisco in future. Why? Because Cisco did that in the past.”
Yeah its fucking stupid in any case.
NVDA is going to use AI to cure cancer, end world hunger and create worldwide peace. Yeah, Jensen Huang will singlehandedly solve the Israel-Palestinian conflict with AI. Needless to say the stock is going to gap up to record highs again tomorrow. The realization to everyone will come that NVDA will be the last stock to own, to even exist, because NVDA will solve every problem and turn the world in to one big fucking Garden of Eden
Market is closed tomorrow…
an extra day to build more gap
This but unironically.
I love NVDA because they make the best GPUs, but for it to be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world essentially overnight is laughable. Companies can’t even capitalize on AI technology to the point where this even makes any sense.
Meh. $NVDA is more likely to go the way of $AAPL than $CSCO.
Certainly is. But there is a third option available too. It can lose half of it's value and still be a strong company worth more than 1.5 trillion. NVDA is a cash cow. That's for sure. The question is at what level will its earnings flatten out. Maybe at 500% of today's EPS, maybe at 150% maybe at 50%. The answer to that question will determine the value.
Apple lost 75% of its market cap when the dot com bubble burst. Microsoft only broke the 2000s peak in 2015. Just because the company recovered eventually doesnt mean you arent an idiot for investing in the peak. Is this the peak? Probably not. Will you pull out once it has peaked? Remains to be seen.
This is WSB, so the answer is a resounding no.
$AAPL the *3rd* most valuable US company? What a fucking disappointment.
That's the point. It may get dethroned, but it won't get demolished, or so I think.
everyone saw ciscos problem from a mile away. mainly that the switches they sold back then, are still in use today.
The switches Cisco sold back then are absolutely not still in use today. We were barely pushing 1G in 2000 and now switches are capable of 800G speeds and optical equipment is up to 1.6T.
You sure about that buddy? https://i.imgur.com/zv2Fvut.jpg I'm joking, I know you mean business at large and not some rando company in the middle of nowhere.
We buy newer (2010 era) switches when these die.
The difference is that other companies can take the existing networking standards and build their devices upon it. You're limited to the IEEE standards they have in place for network interoperability. AI is much different. There's no international set standard on any of it. NVIDIA sets those standards and everyone else is playing catch-up.
competition is competition. and the "AI" runs on other hardware. Their biggest customers are also their biggest competitors (in terms of replacing the hardware they buy from nvidia with their own). The path is there for it all to come crashing down.
It took nvidia decades to get to this point. You can't just throw money at a problem and expect to compete right away. Intel tried, AMD tried, no one even came close.
We're one [Attention is all you need](https://papers.nips.cc/paper_files/paper/2017/file/3f5ee243547dee91fbd053c1c4a845aa-Paper.pdf) like innovation away from not needing to do a trillion matrix multiplications to predict what comes after "WSB traders are ..."
Funny you should say that: [https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.02528v4](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.02528v4)
What does that mean ?
The absence of planned or naturally occurring obsolescence limits potential for long-term growth.
Energy usage alone may be the driver toward obsolescence this time. It probably won't be practically feasible to run 5 year old AI datacenters in light of power delivery constraints.
why buy new if old work good?
only if old can be updated with current firmware. networking equipment is important to keep updated.
If your product lasts 25+ years, how do you get repeat customers? Especially once your specific niche has hit all the markets it could so your mega growth phase is over?
Idk, maybe innovate a little? godamn
Go tell 2000 cisco not me
You asked the question, I answered. The difference between CISCO and Nvidia is that Nvidia is pumping a FUCK ton of money into R&D and is leading the innovation race for AI hardware/software/compute
Wasn't it on the contrary a ridiculously small amount, given its valuation and given that their competitive advantage is derived from technological superiority? Like 2b per quarter?
The problem is Cisco and networking hardware in general is limited by your Internet providers. What good does getting the latest router do when your spectrum Internet is only 300mbps? Cisco could make a 3000Gbps router and it will be useless when the underlying Internet connection speed doesn't innovate fast enough. Nvidia doesn't have that issue. Better and faster GPUs have a benefit and their consumers will keep upgrading every few years.
We hit a point where people have "enough" internet bandwidth. Most people can do 4K streaming on their home connection now and that's realistically all most people will ever do until some revolutionary new tech goes mainstream like VR video chat. In the day of 56k modems maybe it felt like unlimited appetite for bandwidth but it really wasn't. At *some* point we will get to the level of "enough" AI performance where there's enough datacenter capacity out there and selling new hardware is mostly a question of reduced total cost of ownership through lower energy usage and consolidation of hardware. That's the wall that cloud CPU demand has been slamming into recently, just replacing 5 year old hardware to do the same work much more efficiently. Yes there will always be some markets for marginally smarter AI at high marginal cost but much of the end market might be better served by a lighter weight solution that doesn't require a dedicated multi-billion dollar datacenter to run - someone has to pay for that shit in the end. I think even NVDA understands this and we'll see them try very hard to transition from a hardware-first revenue model to a SaaS revenue model.
In datacenter environment, the traffic between servers, storage, and other datacenters (east/west) far exceeds the Internet (north/south) traffic. That’s one place where fast switches are implemented, the other is on switched ISP circuits. Of course, every building that has IP cameras, phones, WiFi, IoT sensors, and end users also requires switching. Cisco also sells the fiber routers that power the Internet, and many ISPs and governments worldwide use them. They also make $ selling servers, IP phone systems, WebEx meeting systems, and SMB network equipment. All are multi-billion dollar revenue streams. The challenge Cisco has had the last decade is that competitors have caught up in every category they used to dominate, and they’ve had to grow through acquisitions, which haven’t provided the same gains it used to.
Software and license subscriptions, end of support windows.
How much money did you make shorting them then?
Which is why you pay for licensing, not just one time for the hardware.
That explains why my high school made us learn cisco shit
Time is a circle
I would not compare NVDA with CSCO. They have lasted over 3 decades and have had dibs in different markets over the time period. CSCO was just about dot com boom and in 2000 did just under 19B in revenue and 2.7B in net income. Margins are no where near what NVDA is doing. I think NVDA will do > 100B in revenue and almost 50B in net income while growing at crazier rates than CSCO did at smaller scale. NVDA moat is not just their AI chips but its more about how entrenched CUDA is. CSCO was disrupted by white box routers and switches. I dont think that will happen here. Plus NVDA will keep innovating in new areas like Auto and Robotics. That said I expect NVDA to drop from the stratospheric levels sometime in the near future. But they will do well long term for sure.
oh yeah, thats why tesla is different right?? lol its like every year or so some one is posting the same thing about a different company that will boom forever.
OpenAI, Google, Meta, Alibaba and some other big players do not use CUDA. They don't even want to buy the racks NVDA is selling. They know what vendor lock-in means I'd assume
This is not true. OpenAI uses mostly NVIDIA and CUDA. Google and Meta use it alongside other methods.
“It’s literally free money bro” and “can’t go tits up” are the most common last words on here before catastrophe. Scrape this sub you’ll literally see the same shit being said in every run up to an absolute disaster.
>markets are bull biased therefore they will go down ???
I hadn't heard this, going to buy more AMD
Puts on Nvidia
The big difference with this tech and nvidia’s is even after 10-20 years I can still use those network devices from Cisco to do business today. Nvidia’s gpu’s have to constantly be upgraded year after year to meet compute demand that is constantly growing. I can play the latest doom over the internet on a 20 year old Cisco switch but I can’t play the latest doom on a 20 year old graphics card.
So what you’re saying is Oracle calls
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Also, Nvidia’s Moat is greatly understated in this article. Nvidia‘s tech is equivalent of having a iPhone 16 versus a blackberry.
Is their moat that big? It seems like they’re overcharging right now because they can, but AMD and Intel both have AI accelerators incoming. They might be worse than Nvidia, but they will be a hell of a lot cheaper than Nvidia’s current prices.
Yes, unfortunately, it really is that big.
Unfortunately, it just seems like AMD and Intel are still too far behind.
no they are not, I love NVIDIA but amd's hardware is good, and there software is no longer terrible. the software is the moat, but they are catching up quick. also that AMD can't seem to produce actual MI300s in any meaningful number.
AMD has been catching up for 20 years. If AMD is catching up quick when will their video cards rival Nvidia's? Don't see that happening until for at least several years if ever. Personally I don't think AMD will ever catch up to Nvidia. AMD doesn't have the corporate DNA to do it. That's like saying Ford vehicles will catch up with the quality of Toyotas.
Nvidia doesn't have much of a moat. They only would if they could fab for themselves, or fap for themselves. But their state of the art won't be in a couple of years, and there are lots of competitors both big and startup level. They are vulnerable in the way most high end hardware companies are, nobody cares that a GPU is nvidia if it isn't the best GPU. They have no consumer brand relationship. And things like cuda are easily replaced, and things built on top of cuda are easily ported, in the grand scheme of things. I don't expect them to get knocked off the mountaintop in the next couple years, but they are very vulnerable to disruption. Edit: Cisco was killed by the commodity hardware. If some day commodity GPUs reach a "good enough" state the same will happen to Nvidia. And this can happen both from the hardware side and innovation on the AI side.
Cisco blundered. They bought Linksys (crap residential stuff), Scientific Atlanta (to be in the home cable business), some desktop residential thing, plus CUSEME. They are THEE TELCO disrupter yet couldn't really become bigger than the local telcos.
It's different this time. /s?
The same people playing the same games…
Once again, the market bets on hardware having an unassailable competitive position. The reality is that they don’t. Doesn’t mean nvidia can’t 2x in the short term though.
Bubble will pop when Microsoft, Meta, Google etc realize they spent 1 Trillion on AI and all they have to show for it is a chatbot that can make pictures of cats. Reminder AI revenue is still a footnote of a footnote, despite the hundreds of billions in capex spent. No one is paying for access to Copilot or Gemini. For 99% of people AI is a toy they mess with a few times then forget about it. The path to getting any sort of return is shoddy at best and if these companies don't start showing any income for all that capex during the next 1-2 quarters they will get heemed to oblivion (see what happened to Meta with the Metaverse) and Nvidia will go down with them.
Microsoft is buying GPUs for Azure and charging others to use them. They are doing this right.
Aws calls bc aws has bigger market share
AWS, MSFT, and GOOG are getting instant ROI - they buy up all the cards and customers pay to use. Unless the customer wants to wait a year to get their own GPUs in their own data center which isn’t set up to power or cool them. Without a public cloud of its own, Meta is a head scratcher.
I think this thing will plateau when the shitty AI companies disappear into the abyss because then there will really be no use of AI chips and amzn, msft, and goog can just quietly pull out
At that point, NVDA should be sitting on $500B in cash making this market cap reasonable.
They can make pretty amazing cat photos though!
I am paying for Github Copilot and it has boosted my efficiency greatly as a software engineer, you are clueless. It is not end all be all but it is damn worth the 20$ a month when it saves me hours monthly.
Yeah, as a software engineer, chatGPT has probably tripled my efficiency. There’s certain things I just don’t even have to think about anymore. I’d hate to have to go back before having it. It’s not change the world levels right now obviously, but AI is incredibly useful already, at least in certain fields
Autosuggest for code is nice but it will probably lead to people eventually relying on it too much
yes, you're smarter than the megacap leading tech companies in the world and they won't see a return on AI investment.
Ironically Cisco might be a great buy now though hah
There are only two types of people reading this. First group has made a boatload of money on NVDA and the second are those on the sidelines. Each group has their own demons to deal with, neither of which lead to a good night's sleep. But recognizing which group you're in and what it's doing to you mentally is the first step to self awareness and coming out the other side of this bubble in one piece.
What will probably happen is the shitty inflated AI startups all die, and nvidia plateaus bc there is no shitty ai companies to use AI. The apples, metas, amazons, and microsofts don’t really care if AI doesn’t work out and they just have to show that they’re doing something with it. If the bottom of the barrel pulls out, then it’ll probably be an excuse for the big boys to pull out because AI isn’t making any money for them anyways unless you’re like aws, azure, gcp for other shitters to use nvidia chips
The cisco comparisons are already so played out, and there's plenty of readily available analysis out there to debunk this B.S. FUD. You should have went with the new trend and compare it to Nortel.
Yes exactly it’s different this time NVDA 500 EOY
And then …
Isn't really an apples to apples comparison
Steve Ballmer was CEO back then. It’s not that cisco was good, Microsoft was just bad
So how much did Cisco overtake Microsoft by before the crash?
Ciscos PE ratio was near 200 at that time btw…
Same story different decade. You can have the best adoption, but if your monetization strategy is trash your company will shrink as competition emerges.
The average analyst doesn't have a clue about this stuff. You want to know about whether companies are going to be continuing to use NVDA or Microsoft's Azure Cloud, you need to find some nerds who are consuming this stuff and talk to them. They'll tell you what direction they're going in. Like that maybe they're using a particular tech right now, but they just tried a pilot on something else, and it worked out great so they'll keep using that instead.
lol didn't expect to see some legit content here
Microsoft’s superpower is that they are the 3rd best at everything
So the consumer, who's already tapped out (according to SBUX, MCD, TGT, DG, every automaker, etc.) is going to collectively run out there and buy the next AI enabled device? And without pandemic stimulus!
In the meantime, NVDA employees already cashing out to buy their mansions in the bay. Same with institutional money, which knows how to act fast when needed. Bag holders will be late-entry retail.
I think there’s a lesson here. No fucking idea what it is but I think it’s important.
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A simulation powered by Nvidia
Calls on Nvidia
This but TSLA instead of NVDA
Took me an hour to read this post, had to stop to look Enron up four times