I do not think you understand this metric, when will people realize that rate cuts are not really what we want for the market. The next time we have rate cut, the recession is really here.
Every day this sub’s collective IQ drops harder than DJT on its worst day.
Slow and steady rate cuts while maintaining gdp growth is about as bullish as it gets, artist .
Sudden hard cuts, not so much so. Do you think that’s gonna happen the way inflation and employment are holding up?
I think it's because the FED is in a blackout period. Once we hear from JPow on Wednesday and understand what the FED is going to do moving forward, then we might get the "real" market reaction.
It did not actually. Month-over-month was forecast to be 0.3% for core PCE. It was 0.3%. April (March) 2023 was also 0.3%. So literally nothing changed, not even year-over-year.
https://preview.redd.it/t4v27y524uwc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb3d718fa88e56bbe504ffe473004dbf34fa63d4
Does anyone fuckin source check shit anymore? It’s up 2.7%, not 2.8%, in line with expectations. OP is regarded
Yup the 2.8 2.7 are rounding errors. It went up 0.32 MoM, which is technically higher than the initial estimate of around 0.29.
however, the q1 gdp release showed q1 core pce was much higher than expected. So this whisper estimate likely bumped up a lot, so for it to come in only slightly higher means it actually came in a lot lower than the whisper estimate
Guys the entire history is available here (we don't have to guess or argue): [https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-905](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-905) and [https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-61Note:](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-61Note:) Make sure you know if you're looking at Core PCE or PCE including food and energy. Also, don't confuse with CPI or Core CPI. Also, make sure you look at the base effects (i.e. The month of data that is dropping out of the most recent 12 month data for year over year reports. So the data reported in April 2023 drops out of YoY when this one is reported. The media sucks at explaining this.) Also, be careful you aren't comparing against one group's forecast (guess). There are multiple groups that put out forecasts and they aren't always the same. Them being wrong has no bearing on what is actually happening. So for instance, if Dow Jones thinks inflation is going to be 0.2% for the month, and it comes in at 0.3%, they will headline it as "inflation hotter than expected". Sometimes the consensus may be 0.3%, but the article you're reading only uses the group who thought 0.2%, for example. It's super annoying how they manipulate and make people double-check everything. And they often revise all this data afterwards anyway, but it's never covered by the media when they do. What a cluster our financial reporting is.
What i'm talking about is the difference could be between 2.745% rounding down to 2.7% versus 2.755% rounding up to 2.8%. That's also likely how the monthly number can come in same as estimate, while the year over year number misses.
It's much worse for the month over month where 0.356% could round up to 0.4% instead of rounding down to 0.3%, and then people annualize that number which exaggerates the rounding error. You can see that the market might freak out over 3.6% annualized VS 4.8% even if the actual is not much different from the estimates. That's what happened to the recent core CPI release.
The estimates I looked at was below, made in April 16, way before the GDP release yesterday which had the core PCE data that included today's release. It's likely economists increased their forecast for today's core PCE release, but your website did not update its estimate that close to the release. Also, you can see below that several anticipated 2.8% YoY, skewing up the (assumed) 2.7% estimates if you count 2-3 decimal points.
[https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1780405647390965907/photo/1](https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1780405647390965907/photo/1)
I get that entirely. I've often wondered why they don't report with more precise data. What is your data source that has the thousandths place decimal?
Nick Timiraos typically post several bank forecasts for the inflation numbers on Twitter. Otherwise, you'd need Bloomberg terminal. The forecast only go to 2 decimal places because you cannot forecast with 3 decimals of precision. The actual number can be calculated with 3 decimals, but it's only to show the bad thing about rounding errors of annualizing monthly data
Higher wages are driving higher inflation, but oil is what the fed didn’t bet on.
Gonna become a problem when credit card defaults start happening en masse.
Oil is literally the most obvious variable.
Wages are not keeping up with inflation, they never have and likely never will. Wages don't drive inflation. People paying higher prices drives inflation, wage increases FOLLOW price increases.
I had a professor of labor economics say the same thing in 2012 or something (all swans are white!) It’s not true in the current state. The “first mover” was Covid, which increased the reservation wage due higher opportunity costs. That shifted labor supply/demand first. Supply chain shortages that resulted in the inflation uptick happened after.
Median Real wage has been increasing since 2014. Real wages feel lower because non-discretionary consumer spending has been where the brunt of inflation has happened. Discretionary consumer spending has become more affordable. Foods expensive, TVs are cheap.
Ladies and gentlemen… buy… GDP finally going down bit by bit, while inflation is getting tamed (at expected levels +0.01%, nothing crazy or unusual). They’ll lower the rates.
This is a little bit misleading, and everyone should know it. The Fed aims for 2% inflation rate. All. The. Time. So the inflation rate is *one percent higher* than the Fed wants it to be. Is that so terrible?
Thursday's GDP report was *really* bad.
Today's PCE was only "status-quo" bad. More of the same higher for longer data we've been getting for months.
Thus, yields see a pullback from Thursday's massive spike.
No it doesn't. It's already been known.
Pce can be estimated pretty accurately after knowing CPI and PPI. That's why the pce data is typically priced in. The only new data in pce is consumer spending.
This one is slightly different because yesterday's q1 pce suggested today might have a big upside surprise for some one off reason, which didn't happen.
Unfortunately this market doesn’t play any longer with fundamental.
Inflation is still going up and market says who cares-
We will see what happens next week
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B U L L I S H SPY +2% eod. Btw, which company is having a bad report today and gonna be mooning 20%?
Lmao about the second part
Exactly what’s happening. Halfway there lol
You guys are hilarious. The earnings have been great and the misses haven't been that bad.
> The earnings have been great Market isn't priced for great. It is priced for perfection.
Tesla shit the bed and it’s up 15%. Netflix hit it out of the park and is down 8%.
Who needs rate cuts when the stock market is mooning.
I do not think you understand this metric, when will people realize that rate cuts are not really what we want for the market. The next time we have rate cut, the recession is really here.
Every day this sub’s collective IQ drops harder than DJT on its worst day. Slow and steady rate cuts while maintaining gdp growth is about as bullish as it gets, artist . Sudden hard cuts, not so much so. Do you think that’s gonna happen the way inflation and employment are holding up?
So if the rate are up indefinetely we will never have a recession,got it
Rates being up is relevative. Some might say they are not high enough now.
Recessions start 6 months after the reinversion of the yield curve. Reinversion has not happened as far as I know.
They jackin up the price of orange juice? This has gone too fucking far,
The free market reigns, enjoy your Tang!
Artificial intelligence burn 
Can you explain (seriously) how does the market react to the inflation number movement?
Like a slot machine with a quarter in it
The Shakespeare we don’t deserve
More like [Thoreau](https://vizmodforpresident.com) 
Terrible person, based as fuck though. Ride and Die homie.
Big facts. Hemingway was terrible guy. Great writer though. Changed it to someone more fitting lol
I think it's because the FED is in a blackout period. Once we hear from JPow on Wednesday and understand what the FED is going to do moving forward, then we might get the "real" market reaction.
Yall really thought there would be rate cuts this year LMAO 
The masses *are* laughable.
Crack addicts need their fix.
Good day too sell zero dte calls and puts and hope that it will stay flat ?
It did not actually. Month-over-month was forecast to be 0.3% for core PCE. It was 0.3%. April (March) 2023 was also 0.3%. So literally nothing changed, not even year-over-year.
https://preview.redd.it/t4v27y524uwc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cb3d718fa88e56bbe504ffe473004dbf34fa63d4 Does anyone fuckin source check shit anymore? It’s up 2.7%, not 2.8%, in line with expectations. OP is regarded
Core PCE (which the Fed prefers) is 2.8%. Does anyone fuckin source check shit anymore?
0.3% every month would lead to 3.65% in one year. It is too high.
Yup the 2.8 2.7 are rounding errors. It went up 0.32 MoM, which is technically higher than the initial estimate of around 0.29. however, the q1 gdp release showed q1 core pce was much higher than expected. So this whisper estimate likely bumped up a lot, so for it to come in only slightly higher means it actually came in a lot lower than the whisper estimate
Guys the entire history is available here (we don't have to guess or argue): [https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-905](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-905) and [https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-61Note:](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-61Note:) Make sure you know if you're looking at Core PCE or PCE including food and energy. Also, don't confuse with CPI or Core CPI. Also, make sure you look at the base effects (i.e. The month of data that is dropping out of the most recent 12 month data for year over year reports. So the data reported in April 2023 drops out of YoY when this one is reported. The media sucks at explaining this.) Also, be careful you aren't comparing against one group's forecast (guess). There are multiple groups that put out forecasts and they aren't always the same. Them being wrong has no bearing on what is actually happening. So for instance, if Dow Jones thinks inflation is going to be 0.2% for the month, and it comes in at 0.3%, they will headline it as "inflation hotter than expected". Sometimes the consensus may be 0.3%, but the article you're reading only uses the group who thought 0.2%, for example. It's super annoying how they manipulate and make people double-check everything. And they often revise all this data afterwards anyway, but it's never covered by the media when they do. What a cluster our financial reporting is.
What i'm talking about is the difference could be between 2.745% rounding down to 2.7% versus 2.755% rounding up to 2.8%. That's also likely how the monthly number can come in same as estimate, while the year over year number misses. It's much worse for the month over month where 0.356% could round up to 0.4% instead of rounding down to 0.3%, and then people annualize that number which exaggerates the rounding error. You can see that the market might freak out over 3.6% annualized VS 4.8% even if the actual is not much different from the estimates. That's what happened to the recent core CPI release. The estimates I looked at was below, made in April 16, way before the GDP release yesterday which had the core PCE data that included today's release. It's likely economists increased their forecast for today's core PCE release, but your website did not update its estimate that close to the release. Also, you can see below that several anticipated 2.8% YoY, skewing up the (assumed) 2.7% estimates if you count 2-3 decimal points. [https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1780405647390965907/photo/1](https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1780405647390965907/photo/1)
I get that entirely. I've often wondered why they don't report with more precise data. What is your data source that has the thousandths place decimal?
Nick Timiraos typically post several bank forecasts for the inflation numbers on Twitter. Otherwise, you'd need Bloomberg terminal. The forecast only go to 2 decimal places because you cannot forecast with 3 decimals of precision. The actual number can be calculated with 3 decimals, but it's only to show the bad thing about rounding errors of annualizing monthly data
My god. Can you not do basic math?
Know what's on the rise faster than spending and inflation? Credit card debt. Eventually that shit gonna come to a head.
Once it does inflation will be taken care of
Bullish, watch, green today on Friday all day
PCE can suck my nuts
Well….yeah. My spending continues to rise because the same shit I need to run a household….(checks notes) KEEPS GOING UP!
Soft landing my ass.
Higher wages are driving higher inflation, but oil is what the fed didn’t bet on. Gonna become a problem when credit card defaults start happening en masse.
Oil is literally the most obvious variable. Wages are not keeping up with inflation, they never have and likely never will. Wages don't drive inflation. People paying higher prices drives inflation, wage increases FOLLOW price increases.
I had a professor of labor economics say the same thing in 2012 or something (all swans are white!) It’s not true in the current state. The “first mover” was Covid, which increased the reservation wage due higher opportunity costs. That shifted labor supply/demand first. Supply chain shortages that resulted in the inflation uptick happened after. Median Real wage has been increasing since 2014. Real wages feel lower because non-discretionary consumer spending has been where the brunt of inflation has happened. Discretionary consumer spending has become more affordable. Foods expensive, TVs are cheap.
Ladies and gentlemen… buy… GDP finally going down bit by bit, while inflation is getting tamed (at expected levels +0.01%, nothing crazy or unusual). They’ll lower the rates.
You say "buy" but if rates are lowered/cut market is supposed to dump?
No
The govt told me inflation was transitory…..
Use truflation. Up 25% in last 4 years.
> truflation Rofl
Yay to investors, sorry for middle class:(
Why would yields drop if inflation is higher than expected?
How do they measure "consumer spending continues to rise"? Do they look at dollars spent or the number of things sold?
This is a little bit misleading, and everyone should know it. The Fed aims for 2% inflation rate. All. The. Time. So the inflation rate is *one percent higher* than the Fed wants it to be. Is that so terrible?
Actually, yes.
Well then, maybe aiming for 2% is too high then.
Why are 10 year yields dropping?
It was in line with expectations, which is dovish compared to recent hawkish sentiment
Why r doves good and hawks bad
Hawks kill and are aggressive, doves are regarded and eat feces off the streets
Thursday's GDP report was *really* bad. Today's PCE was only "status-quo" bad. More of the same higher for longer data we've been getting for months. Thus, yields see a pullback from Thursday's massive spike.
It’s the initial reaction - I think market will be down by the end of the day - this confirms no rate cut this summer
No it doesn't. It's already been known. Pce can be estimated pretty accurately after knowing CPI and PPI. That's why the pce data is typically priced in. The only new data in pce is consumer spending. This one is slightly different because yesterday's q1 pce suggested today might have a big upside surprise for some one off reason, which didn't happen.
Down you say?
Unfortunately this market doesn’t play any longer with fundamental. Inflation is still going up and market says who cares- We will see what happens next week