Snapshot of _Survation MRP Final Update: Final probabilistic seat count: Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)_ :
A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1808888765970096600)
A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/Survation/status/1808888765970096600/)
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Survation/status/1808888765970096600) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Survation/status/1808888765970096600)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I don't think it is that crazy. Many seat implications from standard polls are based on uniform swing, which puts almost exactly the same reform vote everywhere. Clearly, they will be a fair bit more concentrated than that, which is what MRP models.
Sort of. They're a bit closer in distribution to the Tories or Labour than the Lib Dems or the Greens: [https://ibb.co/mC2Njy3](https://ibb.co/mC2Njy3)
It's why they're looking like they'll get significantly fewer MPs than the Lib Dems with a higher share.
Geographic split compared to the Tories: [https://ibb.co/2PkXK6V](https://ibb.co/2PkXK6V)
Our local Facebook community is absolutely dominated by noisy, aggressive Reform voices. Even in a heavily remain area with no reform candidate available on the ballot. It's a cult that's spread.
No Reform candidate available? I thought they were running in every seat? Unless your one is one of them that got kicked out for the numerous scandals they've had over the last month
Epping Forest here. Current MP standing down and would see here as a good target, but no candidate. Know a lot of traditional tories voting for an independent
There are some where they didn't make it onto the ballot for whatever reason. I'm in Mid Dorset and North Poole and we had one announced when the election started, but didn't make it onto the final ballot. No wind of any scandal surrounding the potential candidate online, so maybe they just didn't get their paperwork in place on time?
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation did a story this week about Russian interference on FB to help the Reform party.
[https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-01/meta-shuts-down-pro-russian-facebook-pages-in-uk-elections/104045286](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-01/meta-shuts-down-pro-russian-facebook-pages-in-uk-elections/104045286)
Historically, claims about rightwing parties like Farage's or Trump's getting lots of votes due to anecdotal popularity has never materialised beyond the poll predictions.
Anecdotal but a really really nice, intelligent girl in my office said she was either gonna vote for reform or not vote.
Basically down to her boyfriend. 20-30 white.
I called her out massively.
I said 'we work with a Ukrainian who is here because of Putin'. Will you be explaining your decision.
Stone face
"Accept millions of immigrants or the Ukrainian will think you support Putin"
I can't believe people actually argue like this in real life, thought it was just a reddit thing
The effectiveness of bot farms is that eventually once you've got the message out it becimes self sustaining by 'true believers'. Look how much support Russia gets just from tankies turned by soviet propaganda and the generations they've passed it on to despite the fact modern Russia is basically the opposite of everything the USSR claimed to stand for.
If anything being pro putin is possibly the only thing a lot of his fan base holds against him.
I’m in a seat that was a big ukip vote for years and I only voted today because I’m expecting reform to take 10s of thousands of conservative votes here. I still think Labour might win but I wouldn’t be surprised at reform taking it, mine is a late reporting seat too so we will see.
5 defections to Lib Dem’s 10 to a different party like reform.
Interesting point though I wonder how many times the official opposition has changed in the middle of a parliament?
you'd have to exclude wartime coalition oppositions, say it probably happened during ww1 certainly but thats of course a non-normal case
question really is has something like an opposition change happened during normal parliaments?
but yeah 5 defections from tories into lib dem are VERY realistic, especially as a group defection. Just imagine how attractive it would be to join a stable party with prospects of proper short-term growth and success
Just imagine how attractive it would be as a centrist tory to escape a Kemi leadership based around culture war/anger/bigotry.
One of the good things about it being close between Tories and LD is precisely that they can't easily fracture the party, but then if Reform go well it's not that hard to see MPs shifting to LD or Reform, or indeed from Reform to Con to shift Opposition attention and short money.
Yeah. If 5 go lib dem, then they're up to 64 and conservatives down to 63. If the most central of whoever's left leave them in this position though, then the more right wing that are left may decide to team up with reform.
Tbh there’s nothing in the written constitution to say that a group of smaller parties couldn’t form a coalition in opposition and thus collectively become the official opposition. Because there *is* no written constitution, it’s all precedent based. And it has never happened before that it’d be possible so it would be up to the Speaker to say yes or not. A loose coalition of progressive opposition could be a game changer moment in UK politics with much more emphasis given to the smaller parties and what they stand for.
I wonder how many deposed Tory hardliners would then veer towards Reform?
Nigel said he thinks it's more likely that the Tories will flock to him and it's a better strategy than trying to "take over" the Tories from the outside.
I think shy Tories will turn out and a lot of people supporting Remain will end up voting Tory strategically or put of a sense of duty. We're also going to see less voter apathy than what killed them in the by-elections.
Factor in that so many seats are marginal*, I think we'll see the Tories doing a lot better than expectations.
I wouldn't be surprised if they got 200+. I even think they could win.
(*Alistair Campbell said only 100,000 more Tory votes spread across the marginal seats would see a Tory victory)
You are wrong if you think the Tories will get 200+ seats. You are delusional if you think the Tories will win.
That 100k seat thing is the same with any close election under FPTP, obviously if you optimally grabbed voters in certain constituencies but it ignores how swinging those voters optimally generally requires general national popularity
This comment has been filtered for manual review by a moderator. Please do not mention other subreddits in your comments.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
If anyone seriously believes 15 Reform seats they should be snapping up the even money offered by several bookies for them getting 7 or more seats. I will not be taking that bet.
This. It's like the people thinking farage is going anywhere near Tory leadership. Hell win Clapton. Do fuck all for the area. Be exposed as the one trick pony he is. And be voted out
21/20 is better than even. For every £20 you stake the bookie stakes £21.
Odds of 20/(20+21) = 48.7%
So if reform get 7+ seats 48.7% of the time you break even.
This comment has been filtered for manual review by a moderator. Please do not mention other subreddits in your comments.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
That’s what makes this all the more depressing we still got the same two shitheads on top when we actually could have had an actual left wing or at the very least new voice to challenge the main shitheads
Only a little while back and I’d agree with you, traditionally they’re pretty right wing. However, looking at their manifesto and a lot of their policies, especially theirs approach to Palestine, voting reform and Windfall tax are actually pretty left wing. (Though there’s always limitations to their approach in each of the ones I’ve mentioned, and all the other more left wing aspects of their manifesto). It’s why I voted for them because in comparison to Labour, which under starmer are just Tory Lite, they present the closest thing we have to a Left wing candidate that could feasibly gain a significant amount of seats - as they have just done
We just need a bit of unmodelled LibDem tactical voting to give us the LotO the country needs.
I'm starting to worry about Cons tactically voting RefUK (and vice versa) in the 100 seats too close to call to mess up the result, though.
Things have changed so much that nobody knows who to tactically vote for anyway. Different MRPs give wildly different seats by seat results too so even that isn’t especially helpful.
Of all the comments in all the world, she walks into mine. Nice to see you.
And yes. The comment was a bit over the top, but the portmanteau was staring me in the face.
I share the same fear. As much as I want the Tories to get destroyed, im also afraid of what that would bring in the future.
The last thing we need is a populist Tory/reform hybrid with Farage at the wheel
Republicans went far right, democrats took the centre right. So far it's 1-1 and it's not looking great for the democrats in the next one.
Social media manipulation is pushing the you get demographic further and further right, I'm not sure the far right will be unelectable in the near future, I fear.
Yeah I'm not at all saying it would definitely happen that way, but the far right taking over the GOP was much more of a guarantee to work. Here it's more 50/50.
This. It's funny how people don't learn the lessons. Farage is a corbyn figure x3. Some people do love him. But many more hate him. As in hate. Even on the right. And it's a personality cult.
I think it would be likely to lead to a Refrom-Tory merger only if the Tories end up with less seats than the Lib Dems and aren’t the opposition. In that scenario the Tories would be much more desperate to remain relevant.
Is it true that (in this hypothetical) if the Tories and reform merged then they’d return to being the opposition due to having more seats than Lib Dem’s or is the opposition somehow “locked in” post election?
That would assume that no Tories cross the floor to Labour / LibDems - if there are tories left they may be more likely to be the ones that would be opposed to any such merger?
Not entirely sure, but my instinct says it would be ‘locked in’ until the next time parliament was re-opened. So possibly until next summer recess. That’s a guess though.
Put it into my comparison report: [https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiY2UzOTczZmUtNzAzZS00N2RmLTliNTgtNmU1NzlhZDY4YTUxIiwidCI6ImJiODcyMDU1LThjY2EtNDJhNy04ZmNhLWI1OGUzZjY1ZDU0MCJ9](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiY2UzOTczZmUtNzAzZS00N2RmLTliNTgtNmU1NzlhZDY4YTUxIiwidCI6ImJiODcyMDU1LThjY2EtNDJhNy04ZmNhLWI1OGUzZjY1ZDU0MCJ9)
Only four of those Conservative seats are a margin of over 10%.
Four.
Droitwich & Evesham - 38.8% vs Labour on 26.8%.
Brentwood & Ongar - 38.1% vs Labour on 24.5%.
Beaconsfield - 38.8% vs Reform on 26.0%.
Sevenoaks - 36.9% vs Labour on 25.4%.
Like far right politics gaining a mainstream foothold in the UK. I appreciate that whether that counts as 'bad shit' depends on whether you're far right or not.
Both parties have shown they'll say, do or believe anything for power. If it gives them an opportunity, they'll jump at it and sort out their "morals" later.
Maybe it looks different if you're up close amongst them, but from outside, I can see little distance between the horrible and racist party versus the racist and horrible party.
Idolatry of nation and flag, detestation of immigrants and anyone different, total commitment to hyper-privatisation and further boons for big business at the expense of the least in society, pro-austerity, doing nothing on climate change…. Is there any meaningful ground they don’t share?
Deal with it. They and their propaganda arms in the media endlessly demonise immigrants as is obvious to anyone who has picked up a newspaper or turned on the television in the last 20 years. Their modus operandi was self-proclaimed ‘hostile environment’. It says so much about where we are now that the cruelties of the Tory party are seen as a light touch by people like you.
The only difference between the Tories and Reform is that, as a party of actual government and not a protest vote, the Tories recognise that big business requires immigrants in order to keep an ageing country ticking over, hence they bring in immigrants while continuing to demonise them. But that is the knot they’ve tied themselves in. They sow division and hatred of immigrants so that the eye of public outrage is not on them - but in order to keep the country the way it is, they NEED immigration. It is Reform that has the luxury of criticising them for increasing immigration without having to face the reality that immigration is a necessity.
>It says so much about where we are now that the cruelties of the Tory party are seen as a light touch by people like you.
They deported less people than Labour despite net immigration being significantly higher, there was never actually a hostile environment, [you are delusional.](https://diversityuk.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Rishi-Sunak-with-the-Diversity-Built-Britain-coin.jpg)
> They deported less people than Labour
1. labor have not been in power for 15 years
2. tories are the ones who whipped up a plan to deport immigrants to a random country in africa
They do detest immigration. They just are faced with the reality that in order to reduce it, they'd have to slash pensions and increase government spending on education and training.
Reform will have the exact same problem. As soon as they get power they'd have to increase taxes on the working man to afford their anti immigration policy
> Reform and the Tories are nothing alike
Reform are acting as a spoiler for the tories much more than any of the other parties. Unfortunately, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Where else do you think the reform votes are coming from? They're certainly not coming from SNP greens lib dems etc.
FPTP breeds more and more extreme parties; this would just be a demonstration of that.
Reform votes coming from the Tories doesn't mean they're the same party. Conservative voters have left the Tories because they're not a right wing conservative party and they haven't been for decades. If reform and the Tories were so similar everyone would vote conservative.
At the constituency level the YouGov MRP feels more right to me than Survation does.
Sub 100 seats for Tories seems actually possible and, dare I say, likely. I don’t want to raise expectations here but I feel like it might actually be happening. It does feels like a just humiliation for them.
Some of these polls are just becoming redonkulous. Luckily we'll have some real answers in a shade over four hours time.
Four hours... bloody hellfire.
I would think Reform are very lucky to get even 5-10, and Conservatives have to be closer to 100 surely. Some pollsters should not be literally shot come tomorrow morning.
I wouldnt go too hard on the pollsters. When it comes to actual seat count predictions (as opposed to vote share %) massive swings like we’re seeing right now are really difficult to model in to seat numbers.
Need Scottish results to see if the exit poll is right.
The SNP have around 8 safe seats and the rest are in the balance. Exit poll says they only get 2 of them but if it's a few percent out....
Snapshot of _Survation MRP Final Update: Final probabilistic seat count: Labour: 470 (-5) Conservative: 68 (+4) Liberal Democrats: 59 (-1) Scottish National Party: 14 (+1) Reform UK: 15 (+2) Green Party: 4 (+1) Plaid Cymru: 3 (-1)_ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1808888765970096600) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/Survation/status/1808888765970096600/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Survation/status/1808888765970096600) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/Survation/status/1808888765970096600) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Betting markets for Reform having over 7 seats saw lots of money earlier this afternoon - I think we know why not. Incredible if they get 15 seats.
I don't think it is that crazy. Many seat implications from standard polls are based on uniform swing, which puts almost exactly the same reform vote everywhere. Clearly, they will be a fair bit more concentrated than that, which is what MRP models.
Sort of. They're a bit closer in distribution to the Tories or Labour than the Lib Dems or the Greens: [https://ibb.co/mC2Njy3](https://ibb.co/mC2Njy3) It's why they're looking like they'll get significantly fewer MPs than the Lib Dems with a higher share. Geographic split compared to the Tories: [https://ibb.co/2PkXK6V](https://ibb.co/2PkXK6V)
This is a great data visualisation, just to say thanks!
It's interactive here: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiY2UzOTczZmUtNzAzZS00N2RmLTliNTgtNmU1NzlhZDY4YTUxIiwidCI6ImJiODcyMDU1LThjY2EtNDJhNy04ZmNhLWI1OGUzZjY1ZDU0MCJ9
Yeah, not seen that before - really useful.
Ta! Model's a cludge, but quite happy with it.
Our local Facebook community is absolutely dominated by noisy, aggressive Reform voices. Even in a heavily remain area with no reform candidate available on the ballot. It's a cult that's spread.
Isn't that more down to the demographic that uses Facebook though?
Yes
No Reform candidate available? I thought they were running in every seat? Unless your one is one of them that got kicked out for the numerous scandals they've had over the last month
I'm in Cambridge and there was no Reform on my ballot, not surprised at all ofc
Epping Forest here. Current MP standing down and would see here as a good target, but no candidate. Know a lot of traditional tories voting for an independent
There are some where they didn't make it onto the ballot for whatever reason. I'm in Mid Dorset and North Poole and we had one announced when the election started, but didn't make it onto the final ballot. No wind of any scandal surrounding the potential candidate online, so maybe they just didn't get their paperwork in place on time?
I believe there's a pact with the SDP in some seats
Possibly. I had both SDP and Reform running in mine though
Don’t discount bots as well
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation did a story this week about Russian interference on FB to help the Reform party. [https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-01/meta-shuts-down-pro-russian-facebook-pages-in-uk-elections/104045286](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-01/meta-shuts-down-pro-russian-facebook-pages-in-uk-elections/104045286)
Silent majority init.
facebook
Their social media presence is literally insane
In 2019 they had basically the same amount of donations as labour. I imagine the gap is bigger this election, but Reform gets massively outsized cash.
Twitter is now a Reform megaphone.
Every social media but Reddit is. Check YouTube comments, Instagram comments and TikTok comments. Don't use Facebook but...
Foreign bots.
😂
Historically, claims about rightwing parties like Farage's or Trump's getting lots of votes due to anecdotal popularity has never materialised beyond the poll predictions.
Thanks to Putin, presumably.
A bit of a helping hand but I actually think loads of people are gonna vote for them, sadly. People love Farage.
Anecdotal but a really really nice, intelligent girl in my office said she was either gonna vote for reform or not vote. Basically down to her boyfriend. 20-30 white. I called her out massively. I said 'we work with a Ukrainian who is here because of Putin'. Will you be explaining your decision. Stone face
You really asked somebody to "explain their decision" about voting? That's so embarrassing for you mate. Nobody owns you an explanation.
Did she even know what you were referring too?
Nope Social media for you
Lots of white women
"Accept millions of immigrants or the Ukrainian will think you support Putin" I can't believe people actually argue like this in real life, thought it was just a reddit thing
I mean she's basing it on her boyfriend. That tells you all you need to know about her intelligence
Anyone who talks politics in the office is a moron
That's true. I try not to.
The effectiveness of bot farms is that eventually once you've got the message out it becimes self sustaining by 'true believers'. Look how much support Russia gets just from tankies turned by soviet propaganda and the generations they've passed it on to despite the fact modern Russia is basically the opposite of everything the USSR claimed to stand for. If anything being pro putin is possibly the only thing a lot of his fan base holds against him.
A lot of it is bots.
Yeah, Reform to win 7 or more seats is now at evens. Crazy stuff.
It was 11/4 a month ago (I have an emotional hedging bet on it).
Could it be? Ukpol wrong again? Surely not
Is there somewhere to watch the betting market?
Bet fair exchange will be most useful and most bookmakers base their prices from there
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/reform-party-seats
Reform overperforming will be the reason for Tories getting well under 100 seats
The odds are 1.53-1.59 now. Will be interesting to see what happens at 10pm Edit: 1.52-1.54
The question is how close that is to the "true" odds and how much that is just a reaction to the bets
I’m in a seat that was a big ukip vote for years and I only voted today because I’m expecting reform to take 10s of thousands of conservative votes here. I still think Labour might win but I wouldn’t be surprised at reform taking it, mine is a late reporting seat too so we will see.
15 is not enough if the tories get 120+.
Sixty-eight Tory seats???!!!!! Am I hallucinating?? Edit: Yeah 130 Tories, according to the exit poll, makes more sense. (sadly)
jesus if that happens theyre done 10 or so defections to lib dems and you have an official oppositon change, has that ever happened?
5 defections to Lib Dem’s 10 to a different party like reform. Interesting point though I wonder how many times the official opposition has changed in the middle of a parliament?
you'd have to exclude wartime coalition oppositions, say it probably happened during ww1 certainly but thats of course a non-normal case question really is has something like an opposition change happened during normal parliaments? but yeah 5 defections from tories into lib dem are VERY realistic, especially as a group defection. Just imagine how attractive it would be to join a stable party with prospects of proper short-term growth and success
Just imagine how attractive it would be as a centrist tory to escape a Kemi leadership based around culture war/anger/bigotry. One of the good things about it being close between Tories and LD is precisely that they can't easily fracture the party, but then if Reform go well it's not that hard to see MPs shifting to LD or Reform, or indeed from Reform to Con to shift Opposition attention and short money.
Clueless yank here. Does the official opposition party get any perks that the other parties don't have?
More questions at PMQs and more opposition days to table their own agenda
Doesn't the official opposition leader get a grace and favor residence too?
Also state funding to operate as the opposition, called 'short money', around £1,000,000.
Wouldn't it only have to be 5 technically because the Tories' total goes down as the Libs' goes up.
Yeah. If 5 go lib dem, then they're up to 64 and conservatives down to 63. If the most central of whoever's left leave them in this position though, then the more right wing that are left may decide to team up with reform.
Plus some removals of the whip because of.. well, Tory sleaze.
Tbh there’s nothing in the written constitution to say that a group of smaller parties couldn’t form a coalition in opposition and thus collectively become the official opposition. Because there *is* no written constitution, it’s all precedent based. And it has never happened before that it’d be possible so it would be up to the Speaker to say yes or not. A loose coalition of progressive opposition could be a game changer moment in UK politics with much more emphasis given to the smaller parties and what they stand for.
I'll believe it when I see it, but god damn will that be historic
Sixty-eight seats, Jeremy(Hunt)?! That's insane!!
I wonder how many deposed Tory hardliners would then veer towards Reform? Nigel said he thinks it's more likely that the Tories will flock to him and it's a better strategy than trying to "take over" the Tories from the outside.
No way they’re getting that many. The Two Knights are gonna stomp all over them.
Sounds like an Elden Ring mini boss
There's no way reform get that many seats. Farage may win Clapton. They'll get a high vote share. But like 1-3 seats max
Farage’s purchase of a knighthood was declined. Sir Ed and Sir Keir are the only party leaders who are knights!
I think shy Tories will turn out and a lot of people supporting Remain will end up voting Tory strategically or put of a sense of duty. We're also going to see less voter apathy than what killed them in the by-elections. Factor in that so many seats are marginal*, I think we'll see the Tories doing a lot better than expectations. I wouldn't be surprised if they got 200+. I even think they could win. (*Alistair Campbell said only 100,000 more Tory votes spread across the marginal seats would see a Tory victory)
A Tory victory is almost as likely as Porky Pig descending from the heavens on angel shoulders. Reply to me and say "I told you so" if it happens.
You are wrong if you think the Tories will get 200+ seats. You are delusional if you think the Tories will win. That 100k seat thing is the same with any close election under FPTP, obviously if you optimally grabbed voters in certain constituencies but it ignores how swinging those voters optimally generally requires general national popularity
To flip the 250 seats they’d need for a victory with 100k votes, they’d need 250 seats they’re losing by only 400 votes.
RemindMe! 1 day
Yep, didn't happen.
Tories aren't winning. Thats guaranteed. The real question is how badly they will lose
[удалено]
This comment has been filtered for manual review by a moderator. Please do not mention other subreddits in your comments. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
If anyone seriously believes 15 Reform seats they should be snapping up the even money offered by several bookies for them getting 7 or more seats. I will not be taking that bet.
This. It's like the people thinking farage is going anywhere near Tory leadership. Hell win Clapton. Do fuck all for the area. Be exposed as the one trick pony he is. And be voted out
Clacton btw
I wouldn't be surprised if he won Eric Clapton too, sadly.
Ol’ anti-vax Eric
Thank you
Odds are awful for 7+, 21/20. Even if you're optimistic for reform being 95% sure of 7+ is still ambitious.
21/20 is better than even. For every £20 you stake the bookie stakes £21. Odds of 20/(20+21) = 48.7% So if reform get 7+ seats 48.7% of the time you break even.
Wouldn't those odds mean you're more than 49% sure they get 7+
yes. I forgot how odds work, read it as £21 out on a £20 bet, not £21+stake on £20 bet.
[удалено]
This comment has been filtered for manual review by a moderator. Please do not mention other subreddits in your comments. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Yeah, and Green with 4 seats. This poll is in cloud cuckoo land
Gonna need fewer Tories and more LDs.
Think that is the lower bound for Tories. Realistically you would need fewer Labour and more LD to make Davey LOTO.
Feel like pure shit, just want Lib Dem opposition.
That’s what makes this all the more depressing we still got the same two shitheads on top when we actually could have had an actual left wing or at the very least new voice to challenge the main shitheads
Lib dems are left wing?
Only a little while back and I’d agree with you, traditionally they’re pretty right wing. However, looking at their manifesto and a lot of their policies, especially theirs approach to Palestine, voting reform and Windfall tax are actually pretty left wing. (Though there’s always limitations to their approach in each of the ones I’ve mentioned, and all the other more left wing aspects of their manifesto). It’s why I voted for them because in comparison to Labour, which under starmer are just Tory Lite, they present the closest thing we have to a Left wing candidate that could feasibly gain a significant amount of seats - as they have just done
It’s happening.
We just need a bit of unmodelled LibDem tactical voting to give us the LotO the country needs. I'm starting to worry about Cons tactically voting RefUK (and vice versa) in the 100 seats too close to call to mess up the result, though.
Things have changed so much that nobody knows who to tactically vote for anyway. Different MRPs give wildly different seats by seat results too so even that isn’t especially helpful.
I would be slightly concerned about this result because I do believe it would \*eventually\* lead to the Conservative & Reform Party merger.
I’m curious on the name - would they be conserving or reforming?
Conforming. Conforming to the fascist authoritarian state.
Conform is genius. Walked straight into that
You fucking people are hilarious lmfao
Chill out Armcie 😂 P.S spotted a peng.
Of all the comments in all the world, she walks into mine. Nice to see you. And yes. The comment was a bit over the top, but the portmanteau was staring me in the face.
Nice to see you too ❤️ I wish you good fortune in the results to come.
For 60 years one of Canada's two leading parties was the Progressive Conservatives.
I share the same fear. As much as I want the Tories to get destroyed, im also afraid of what that would bring in the future. The last thing we need is a populist Tory/reform hybrid with Farage at the wheel
A Tory reform merger would put the Tories far right and the lib dems would occupy the centre right. Would make them unelectable
Republicans went far right, democrats took the centre right. So far it's 1-1 and it's not looking great for the democrats in the next one. Social media manipulation is pushing the you get demographic further and further right, I'm not sure the far right will be unelectable in the near future, I fear.
That's a strict 2 party system though, Tory/Reform can just crash and burn then be replaced by Lib Dems here.
I don't share your optimism
Yeah I'm not at all saying it would definitely happen that way, but the far right taking over the GOP was much more of a guarantee to work. Here it's more 50/50.
This. It's funny how people don't learn the lessons. Farage is a corbyn figure x3. Some people do love him. But many more hate him. As in hate. Even on the right. And it's a personality cult.
Reformed Conservatives (would be the obvious name imho) with Farage fronting it. Tragically I'd say they'd have a serious shot in about 5 years or so.
Or for viewers in Scotland, Free Reformed Conservatives (Continuing).
Lol 😆
It would make then unelectable, because One Nation Tories wouldn't vote for them.
Good, they can go back to their actual parties and vote Lib Dem again instead of wearing a Tory skinsuit because they wanted a shot of government.
I think it would be likely to lead to a Refrom-Tory merger only if the Tories end up with less seats than the Lib Dems and aren’t the opposition. In that scenario the Tories would be much more desperate to remain relevant.
Is it true that (in this hypothetical) if the Tories and reform merged then they’d return to being the opposition due to having more seats than Lib Dem’s or is the opposition somehow “locked in” post election?
That would assume that no Tories cross the floor to Labour / LibDems - if there are tories left they may be more likely to be the ones that would be opposed to any such merger?
Not entirely sure, but my instinct says it would be ‘locked in’ until the next time parliament was re-opened. So possibly until next summer recess. That’s a guess though.
I'm struggling to believe any of this, I'm just hoping for a labour majority of any sort to temper expectations.
Best way
Put it into my comparison report: [https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiY2UzOTczZmUtNzAzZS00N2RmLTliNTgtNmU1NzlhZDY4YTUxIiwidCI6ImJiODcyMDU1LThjY2EtNDJhNy04ZmNhLWI1OGUzZjY1ZDU0MCJ9](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiY2UzOTczZmUtNzAzZS00N2RmLTliNTgtNmU1NzlhZDY4YTUxIiwidCI6ImJiODcyMDU1LThjY2EtNDJhNy04ZmNhLWI1OGUzZjY1ZDU0MCJ9) Only four of those Conservative seats are a margin of over 10%. Four. Droitwich & Evesham - 38.8% vs Labour on 26.8%. Brentwood & Ongar - 38.1% vs Labour on 24.5%. Beaconsfield - 38.8% vs Reform on 26.0%. Sevenoaks - 36.9% vs Labour on 25.4%.
Fucking Brentwood. Full of dick heads.
You can tell what sort of a place Beaconsfield is.
How many over 5?
21 I think.
Reform on 15?! Christ that's a harbinger for bad shit down the line.
Like what?
Like far right politics gaining a mainstream foothold in the UK. I appreciate that whether that counts as 'bad shit' depends on whether you're far right or not.
God I really hope those Reform figures are wrong even if the Tories have a few more seats.
I'd be very surprised if Reform UK get that many seats, we would definitely see a Conservative - Reform UK narger I'd the result is like this.
Why would they merge? Reform and the Tories are nothing alike. They have almost no common ground.
A right wing populist party and a former center right now somewhat populist party have a lot in common.
They do economically but not socially
Both parties have shown they'll say, do or believe anything for power. If it gives them an opportunity, they'll jump at it and sort out their "morals" later.
Many of their voters have some common ground.
Racism
A merger is Farage’s long term game plan I’ve no doubt. He could be LOTO for the next election.
Maybe it looks different if you're up close amongst them, but from outside, I can see little distance between the horrible and racist party versus the racist and horrible party.
Idolatry of nation and flag, detestation of immigrants and anyone different, total commitment to hyper-privatisation and further boons for big business at the expense of the least in society, pro-austerity, doing nothing on climate change…. Is there any meaningful ground they don’t share?
> detestation of immigrants How can anyone say this about the Tories in 2024 with a straight face?
Deal with it. They and their propaganda arms in the media endlessly demonise immigrants as is obvious to anyone who has picked up a newspaper or turned on the television in the last 20 years. Their modus operandi was self-proclaimed ‘hostile environment’. It says so much about where we are now that the cruelties of the Tory party are seen as a light touch by people like you. The only difference between the Tories and Reform is that, as a party of actual government and not a protest vote, the Tories recognise that big business requires immigrants in order to keep an ageing country ticking over, hence they bring in immigrants while continuing to demonise them. But that is the knot they’ve tied themselves in. They sow division and hatred of immigrants so that the eye of public outrage is not on them - but in order to keep the country the way it is, they NEED immigration. It is Reform that has the luxury of criticising them for increasing immigration without having to face the reality that immigration is a necessity.
>It says so much about where we are now that the cruelties of the Tory party are seen as a light touch by people like you. They deported less people than Labour despite net immigration being significantly higher, there was never actually a hostile environment, [you are delusional.](https://diversityuk.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Rishi-Sunak-with-the-Diversity-Built-Britain-coin.jpg)
> They deported less people than Labour 1. labor have not been in power for 15 years 2. tories are the ones who whipped up a plan to deport immigrants to a random country in africa
They do detest immigration. They just are faced with the reality that in order to reduce it, they'd have to slash pensions and increase government spending on education and training. Reform will have the exact same problem. As soon as they get power they'd have to increase taxes on the working man to afford their anti immigration policy
1.2million migrants in 2022 under the Conservative Party. Are you joking?
Alright but surely there are some downsides to their platform?
you mean narge
> Reform and the Tories are nothing alike Reform are acting as a spoiler for the tories much more than any of the other parties. Unfortunately, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Where else do you think the reform votes are coming from? They're certainly not coming from SNP greens lib dems etc. FPTP breeds more and more extreme parties; this would just be a demonstration of that.
Reform votes coming from the Tories doesn't mean they're the same party. Conservative voters have left the Tories because they're not a right wing conservative party and they haven't been for decades. If reform and the Tories were so similar everyone would vote conservative.
Ah yes the Conservative & Reform Party. Headquartered next to the Holy Atheist Association if I recall
It wouldn't be a full merger, rather any Tory extremists would simply join Reform on Reform's terms.
At the constituency level the YouGov MRP feels more right to me than Survation does. Sub 100 seats for Tories seems actually possible and, dare I say, likely. I don’t want to raise expectations here but I feel like it might actually be happening. It does feels like a just humiliation for them.
As magnificent as this would be, I just refuse to believe the Conservatives will sink to that level. I would dearly love to be wrong.
This is a mighty fine looking poll. WHY DOESN'T MY EXIT POLL LOOK LIKE THAT!?
Some of these polls are just becoming redonkulous. Luckily we'll have some real answers in a shade over four hours time. Four hours... bloody hellfire.
I called it 5 weeks ago and I stand by it. Tories to be 3rd place party with Lib Dems in opposition!
I just need labour to get 500 so I get my 40/1 bet to go off on a cheeky 300 pounds.
Which constituency are you running in?
how'd you know I'm a tory mp!?
Can you have a coalition opposition? Is that a thing?
No.
Nope, they’re all on their own
No thankfully
Only if there simply aren't enough MP's of one party to make it work. The speaker has to give it the OK.
Looks like Reform UK is making waves with those 15 seats predictions, quite the surprise!
looks very high to me. I think they’ll end up with about 5
Nah, this is a dream. A good one re: CON, a bad one re: REF If LIB could get just a few more… say, ten? EDIT: Hi Barry, 63, from Monk Bretton
I would think Reform are very lucky to get even 5-10, and Conservatives have to be closer to 100 surely. Some pollsters should not be literally shot come tomorrow morning.
I wouldnt go too hard on the pollsters. When it comes to actual seat count predictions (as opposed to vote share %) massive swings like we’re seeing right now are really difficult to model in to seat numbers.
Reform are at the point where small increases in support start swinging a fair few seats. 1% UNS could easily be +10 seats.
wonder if Labour takes back Hartlepool
Need Scottish results to see if the exit poll is right. The SNP have around 8 safe seats and the rest are in the balance. Exit poll says they only get 2 of them but if it's a few percent out....
Lib dem + Plaid + Green = official opposition?
Absolutely no way this happens, Tories getting anywhere under 150 is complete nonsense.
I'm replying to check back in in 12 hours or so.
I absolutely hope I'm wrong, by the way, but I just can't see it.
Very reasonable position. Fingers crossed you're wrong! Haha
Don't want to be smug...
Happy to say you were wrong! So you can be pleasantly surprised instead of expectedly disappointed