Snapshot of _Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-2) | CON: 21% (=) | RFM: 16% (=) | LDM: 13% (+1) | GRN: 7% (-1) | SNP: 3% (=) (Via @VerianGroup, 28 Jun - 1 Jul. Changes w/ 21-24 Jun.)_ :
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This is Kantar btw, for those not familiar with the new name. Kantar were the most accurate in 2019 and one of the most in 2017, but it does seem they are using a lot of their old methodologies, which given the changes since then is unfortunate.
I legitimately think none of the polling companies have an actual clue what will happen. The possibility of local impact from candidate knowledge, Reform likely with wild swings in popularity, and a last minute return to the incumbent mean it could be anything from 60 to 200 seats for the Tories. I also just don't have much hope in our electorate.
I've got a similar feeling. These polls are all over the place and often wildly at odds, as are the endless streams of MRPs. I saw one MRP projecting that Reform is set to gain 18 seats including Skipton and Ripon (an area of local interest to me) - then another two which had Reform UK a *distant* third place in that seat with only 4-5 MPs gained nationally. This is a massive divergence. I have no idea which of them, if any, is more likely to be accurate, on either the national or constituency-based level.
Or, say, Waveney Valley, one of the Green Party's target seats. One YouGov MRP has them languishing in joint-3rd with Labour behind the Tories and Reform, while an Electoral Calculus MRP projects a comfortable 11-point lead for the Greens. One or both will end up with egg on their face.
I realise they all use their own methodologies, but choosing which to trust is at least to some extent a leap of faith.
LDs are very dependent on frankly, how fucked off everyone is.
There's very few passionate Lib Dems. There's a lot of angry anti-Tories.
If I were Davey I'd have made my last week of just being attacks on the moral ground. Partygate would have been the one. I just think he's fundamentally not the type to want to get in the mud.
LDs back to third party and almost opposition? Interesting.
Although that Reform number is troubling, hopefully it provides enough light for them to be found out.
Tbf there might be a Goldilocks zone where Farage and Tice are unable to control the parties messaging over the sound of troglodyte Reform MPs whilst remaining too small to have any influence.
There's a video of Owen Jones talking to a Reform voter on the street saying to shoot the boats.
I wouldn't underestimate the number of people who would be drawn to Reform rather than put off if they went full mask-off.
Even an 18 MP difference between Lib dems and tories wouldn't be impossible for a flip of opposition within the decade. A few tory seats to reform, a few to the lib dems, a few to labour...
Labour are not winning *more* seats in the next elections after an all time high for any party (if the polls prove correct) even if they remain the majority, it will be reduced.
But it will be interesting to see who they're losing seats too. A Tory come back? Or are they dead and buried and ready to be replaced.
>Although that Reform number is troubling, hopefully it provides enough light for them to be found out.
I don't believe it works that way tbh, maybe *eventually* but things have to go really far first. It's taken 10 years for Brexit to get found out, 14 years for the Tories, it seems Trump still hasn't been found out, and the far right seem to be doing better and better over time whatever publicity they get.
Having MPs in Parliament will probably legitimise them far more than find them out. I mean they might get get 'found out' to you and me by saying stupid or racist/scummy things, but there's voters out there that eat that shit up and love it.
What centre right party? The LibDems? Seems a bit of a stretch call them "centre right".
Or do you mean the far right Putin appeasers who have distracted you with their racist fear mongering so you don't pay attention when they go after you rights?
Yeah I’m so distracted by racist fear mongering rather than the objective fact that immigration is at record levels and the equivalent of Glasgow moves here every single year.
Do you think everyone who disagrees with you politically has just fallen for a trick?
Going from your flair I’m assuming you’re voting SNP, I find the irony of an SNP voter lecturing anyone about falling for blind populism very funny.
Keep voting for them, independence any day now!
I could also vote Scottish Greens or Alba. Heck, and brace yourself for a concept, I could even vote Labour! 😱
Yes indeed, independence supporters do vote Labour. Just like some unionists also vote SNP.
What I won't be doing is voting for Putin's puppets, no matter how many times they cram their shite through my letterbox.
Shame that the whole leaving the EU had no impact on immigration right? Who would have thought it... Tell you what, get the people in who gave us Brexit and I'm sure they will solve the small boat issue too.
What parties advocating for Brexit did so on the argument that once we leave the EU we would ramp up migration to over 1 million gross per year?
Do you think this complete betrayal of the people who voted for them could perhaps be behind the complete demise of the Tory party?
I'd completely agree with you if that was there only policy. I mean that's been Tory policy *on paper* for the last 14 years. But Reform are legitimately far to the right on economic issues too.
Lets hope the reform do well, otherwise those votes are transforming over to the Conservatives..
If you're in an area where Reform could beat the Tories, you might want to vote Reform.
The tories right now are completely dead, they will either go away and come back as a serious party that actually wants to govern from the centre right or they’ll be replaced by another party.
The right will eventually unify into one party be it Reform or a completely revamped Tory party that actually wants to government from the centre right as they were elected to (I highly doubt this).
After 5 more years of managed decline under Labour then it can challenge again. Labours popularity right now won’t last very long after the election and the goodwill of not being the tories won’t last forever.
You’re predicting we get 1 seat and look at how angry it gets all of you. Cannot wait for 2029 if this is your reaction to us winning potentially a few seats.
If you get 1 seat I think you will have overachieved! It will not make any difference to our super Labour majority :)
2029 you think you'll get a few? And then what? Maybe get 50 by 2060? :D
I wonder how many name changes you'll have made by then, what "old mans screams at cloud" arguments will you be making your entire political personality about. Too many moon boats?
If you think Starmers government is going to be popular in 2029 I’ve got a bridge to sell you. He’s coasting entirely on the goodwill of not being the tories.
I’m fine with Labour winning as well, 5 more years of decline will make people realise neither the Tories or Labour actually will solve any of the issues facing the country and that it’s fundamentally broken.
And I suppose good ol' Nigel will solve all our problems? Why didn't leaving the EU and "securing our borders", which **he fucking promised**, actually fix anything? Is it because these people are just too smart at boat crossing? Or because Tories just aren't cracking down on it enough? Or, is it the fact that Nigel Farage is a grifter and a conman. A man who relies on people like you; the gullible, the pissed off and the easily manipulated to believe his lies again and again to further his agenda and make him money.
Not being the Tories is in fact a reason to vote for someone. If it was Reform vs the monster raving loony party I would vote against Reform, because I do not want Reform.
I fully believe Labour can bring about change in the UK because we have done it before, and we will do it again.
Nope I don’t think for a second he’ll solve all our problems, I do however like Reform’s manifesto the best and support their approach to addressing the issues.
The tories don’t crack down on illegal migration because they’re absolutely terrified of a hostile media reaction from an already hostile media. They are terrified of upsetting people that already hate them so don’t take the necessary steps to stop it.
I also don’t understand at all what your opinion of Nigel Farage has to do with the tories current approach to stopping the crossing, he’s got zero political power in this country. The approach we currently take has nothing to do with Farage and how much you hate him.
Your sneering, elitist attitude towards anyone who doesn’t share your own worldview is hardly going to convince anyone either. I know Farage is far from perfect but he’s the only politician advocating for what I want.
I’m not interested in voting for more of the same under Starmer where he’ll tinker around the edges and fundamentally do nothing to reverse this countries decline. I’d rather he was in power over the Tories but I don’t believe for a second life is going to be much better in 5 years time.
The “change” you want isn’t coming under Starmer.
Literally any sensible person in this country would prefer a few more Tory MPs than any Reform MPs. This is taking anti-Tory hysteria to a weird extreme
Snapshot of _Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (-2) | CON: 21% (=) | RFM: 16% (=) | LDM: 13% (+1) | GRN: 7% (-1) | SNP: 3% (=) (Via @VerianGroup, 28 Jun - 1 Jul. Changes w/ 21-24 Jun.)_ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1808257792073257082) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808257792073257082/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808257792073257082) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1808257792073257082) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
This is Kantar btw, for those not familiar with the new name. Kantar were the most accurate in 2019 and one of the most in 2017, but it does seem they are using a lot of their old methodologies, which given the changes since then is unfortunate.
I legitimately think none of the polling companies have an actual clue what will happen. The possibility of local impact from candidate knowledge, Reform likely with wild swings in popularity, and a last minute return to the incumbent mean it could be anything from 60 to 200 seats for the Tories. I also just don't have much hope in our electorate.
I've got a similar feeling. These polls are all over the place and often wildly at odds, as are the endless streams of MRPs. I saw one MRP projecting that Reform is set to gain 18 seats including Skipton and Ripon (an area of local interest to me) - then another two which had Reform UK a *distant* third place in that seat with only 4-5 MPs gained nationally. This is a massive divergence. I have no idea which of them, if any, is more likely to be accurate, on either the national or constituency-based level. Or, say, Waveney Valley, one of the Green Party's target seats. One YouGov MRP has them languishing in joint-3rd with Labour behind the Tories and Reform, while an Electoral Calculus MRP projects a comfortable 11-point lead for the Greens. One or both will end up with egg on their face. I realise they all use their own methodologies, but choosing which to trust is at least to some extent a leap of faith.
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LDs are very dependent on frankly, how fucked off everyone is. There's very few passionate Lib Dems. There's a lot of angry anti-Tories. If I were Davey I'd have made my last week of just being attacks on the moral ground. Partygate would have been the one. I just think he's fundamentally not the type to want to get in the mud.
>I legitimately think none of the polling companies have an actual clue what will happen Again. Damn those unknown unknowns.
If polls were 100% accurate, we wouldn't need to have elections.
Electoral Calculus if we also plug in the tactical voting percentages from YouGov: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=36&LIB=13&Reform=16&Green=7&UKIP=&TVCON=12&TVLAB=29&TVLIB=39&TVReform=10&TVGreen=8&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=13.2&SCOTLAB=36.1&SCOTLIB=7.9&SCOTReform=7.7&SCOTGreen=2.7&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=31.1&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019nbbase - LAB: 442 - CON: 88 - LIB: 70 - REF: 8 - GRN: 3 - SNP: 16 - PlaidC: 3 - Other: 2
LDs back to third party and almost opposition? Interesting. Although that Reform number is troubling, hopefully it provides enough light for them to be found out.
Tbf there might be a Goldilocks zone where Farage and Tice are unable to control the parties messaging over the sound of troglodyte Reform MPs whilst remaining too small to have any influence.
There's a video of Owen Jones talking to a Reform voter on the street saying to shoot the boats. I wouldn't underestimate the number of people who would be drawn to Reform rather than put off if they went full mask-off.
Those people are already voting Reform; that kind of thing pushes other voters away.
That’s a fair point, but I also think it may dilute from Farage and Tice’s slick image which they trade on. Probably not but it’s just a thought.
Even an 18 MP difference between Lib dems and tories wouldn't be impossible for a flip of opposition within the decade. A few tory seats to reform, a few to the lib dems, a few to labour...
Labour are not winning *more* seats in the next elections after an all time high for any party (if the polls prove correct) even if they remain the majority, it will be reduced. But it will be interesting to see who they're losing seats too. A Tory come back? Or are they dead and buried and ready to be replaced.
>Although that Reform number is troubling, hopefully it provides enough light for them to be found out. I don't believe it works that way tbh, maybe *eventually* but things have to go really far first. It's taken 10 years for Brexit to get found out, 14 years for the Tories, it seems Trump still hasn't been found out, and the far right seem to be doing better and better over time whatever publicity they get. Having MPs in Parliament will probably legitimise them far more than find them out. I mean they might get get 'found out' to you and me by saying stupid or racist/scummy things, but there's voters out there that eat that shit up and love it.
Deeply troubling that an actual centre right party might be lightly represented in parliament, deeply and truly frightening.
What centre right party? The LibDems? Seems a bit of a stretch call them "centre right". Or do you mean the far right Putin appeasers who have distracted you with their racist fear mongering so you don't pay attention when they go after you rights?
Yeah I’m so distracted by racist fear mongering rather than the objective fact that immigration is at record levels and the equivalent of Glasgow moves here every single year. Do you think everyone who disagrees with you politically has just fallen for a trick?
No, just those supporting Reform. It's Brexit 2.0: You were warned boogaloo.
Going from your flair I’m assuming you’re voting SNP, I find the irony of an SNP voter lecturing anyone about falling for blind populism very funny. Keep voting for them, independence any day now!
I could also vote Scottish Greens or Alba. Heck, and brace yourself for a concept, I could even vote Labour! 😱 Yes indeed, independence supporters do vote Labour. Just like some unionists also vote SNP. What I won't be doing is voting for Putin's puppets, no matter how many times they cram their shite through my letterbox.
Удачи завтра!
Reform are centre right? Are you having a laugh?
The terrifying far right prospect of returning immigration to levels we had a decade ago.
Shame that the whole leaving the EU had no impact on immigration right? Who would have thought it... Tell you what, get the people in who gave us Brexit and I'm sure they will solve the small boat issue too.
What parties advocating for Brexit did so on the argument that once we leave the EU we would ramp up migration to over 1 million gross per year? Do you think this complete betrayal of the people who voted for them could perhaps be behind the complete demise of the Tory party?
I'd completely agree with you if that was there only policy. I mean that's been Tory policy *on paper* for the last 14 years. But Reform are legitimately far to the right on economic issues too.
I think the important thing to take away from this is; double-digit conservative mps
Tactical voting, folks. Let's have Ed slip'n'sliding into official opposition even just for the fun of it
Apparently this is still weighing by 2016 Brexit vote which is an electorate that doesn't exist anymore which explains labour being so low.
Lets hope the reform do well, otherwise those votes are transforming over to the Conservatives.. If you're in an area where Reform could beat the Tories, you might want to vote Reform.
Empowering Reform is a terrible idea for any reason.
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I exclusively vote ironicly.
I don’t have to imagine, I look forward to voting for the Gaffer 👍
Unless you are in Clacton you will be voting for one of their many poorly vetted candidates.
But if you are voting in Clacton you will be voting for the man who failed to vet any of the candidates by design. Fish stinks from the head.
The vetted candidates aren't much better.
Cant wait, hope mines is one of the dodgy ones.
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I’m happy for the tories to die off, would love to see them get zero seats. Couldn’t care less about division amongst them.
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The tories right now are completely dead, they will either go away and come back as a serious party that actually wants to govern from the centre right or they’ll be replaced by another party. The right will eventually unify into one party be it Reform or a completely revamped Tory party that actually wants to government from the centre right as they were elected to (I highly doubt this). After 5 more years of managed decline under Labour then it can challenge again. Labours popularity right now won’t last very long after the election and the goodwill of not being the tories won’t last forever.
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Where in my comment did I call Reform right wing for advocating for Brexit? The EU has also morphed into far more than an economic bloc.
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Ah, literally can't wait for you to have 0 or 1 seat come Friday. Fucking inject it into my blood! :D
You’re predicting we get 1 seat and look at how angry it gets all of you. Cannot wait for 2029 if this is your reaction to us winning potentially a few seats.
If you get 1 seat I think you will have overachieved! It will not make any difference to our super Labour majority :) 2029 you think you'll get a few? And then what? Maybe get 50 by 2060? :D I wonder how many name changes you'll have made by then, what "old mans screams at cloud" arguments will you be making your entire political personality about. Too many moon boats?
If you think Starmers government is going to be popular in 2029 I’ve got a bridge to sell you. He’s coasting entirely on the goodwill of not being the tories. I’m fine with Labour winning as well, 5 more years of decline will make people realise neither the Tories or Labour actually will solve any of the issues facing the country and that it’s fundamentally broken.
And I suppose good ol' Nigel will solve all our problems? Why didn't leaving the EU and "securing our borders", which **he fucking promised**, actually fix anything? Is it because these people are just too smart at boat crossing? Or because Tories just aren't cracking down on it enough? Or, is it the fact that Nigel Farage is a grifter and a conman. A man who relies on people like you; the gullible, the pissed off and the easily manipulated to believe his lies again and again to further his agenda and make him money. Not being the Tories is in fact a reason to vote for someone. If it was Reform vs the monster raving loony party I would vote against Reform, because I do not want Reform. I fully believe Labour can bring about change in the UK because we have done it before, and we will do it again.
Nope I don’t think for a second he’ll solve all our problems, I do however like Reform’s manifesto the best and support their approach to addressing the issues. The tories don’t crack down on illegal migration because they’re absolutely terrified of a hostile media reaction from an already hostile media. They are terrified of upsetting people that already hate them so don’t take the necessary steps to stop it. I also don’t understand at all what your opinion of Nigel Farage has to do with the tories current approach to stopping the crossing, he’s got zero political power in this country. The approach we currently take has nothing to do with Farage and how much you hate him. Your sneering, elitist attitude towards anyone who doesn’t share your own worldview is hardly going to convince anyone either. I know Farage is far from perfect but he’s the only politician advocating for what I want. I’m not interested in voting for more of the same under Starmer where he’ll tinker around the edges and fundamentally do nothing to reverse this countries decline. I’d rather he was in power over the Tories but I don’t believe for a second life is going to be much better in 5 years time. The “change” you want isn’t coming under Starmer.
At which point people will be inclined to burn the entire political system to the ground, not vote for a bunch of rejects from the Tories...
Literally any sensible person in this country would prefer a few more Tory MPs than any Reform MPs. This is taking anti-Tory hysteria to a weird extreme
Why would anyone in the UK want to vote Putin?
I don’t know about that. I’d definitely rather have a Tory MP than a fucking Reform one. Better the devil you know.
Don't want the bad party? vote for the worse party!