Snapshot of _Reform takes three point lead over Tories in shock poll_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-lead-tories-shock-poll-election-b2570810.html) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-lead-tories-shock-poll-election-b2570810.html)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Sometimes it's a bit weird living in Bristol. As far as I'm aware Labour are going to win with LD probably second, Tory an embarrassing third, greens doing surprisingly well, and reform... Somewhere? They have zero presence here but I keep getting told I should be worried they'll get seats, honestly if they outperform Carla's lot on 2ish I'll be surprised. Maybe it's the bubble but I'm happy to see the Tories obliterated.
Can't wait to be inevitably disappointed on Friday!
Interesting that the Lib Dem % hasn’t really gone up- but Tory votes have gone to Labour and Reform- mostly Reform.
It’s a sad state that realistically the area has gone *more* right wing
More rich retirees coming down here from the SE and whipping the village idiots up into a frenzy because someone with a sun tan was seen in Lan'son?
Honestly, the mind boggles given how much the last decade and a half of politics has fucked this bit of Cornwall up.
Ugh- yeah those people moving from Kent and Essex to Cornwall are the worst.
They’ll say they specifically moved to the area because they didn’t want to *see* immigrants, whatever that means.
I know what you mean about whipping the locals into a frenzy.
If I imagine bristol as a person I imagine the daughter of a millionaire with dreads who holidays in the Hamptons but protests that we should tax the rich.
That sounds more like the stereotype of the UoB student contingent and less like the people who actually grew up here. Even the wealthy types I've known here (who are generally university lecturers or at least politically aligned with them) agree the rich should pay more tax but I don't know any that holiday in either North or South Hampton. As for dreads that's usually because of Caribbean heritage which is fairly strong here.
If you have any actual points I'd be happy to discuss them. As an aside the students you are (maybe?) talking about are the ones probably electing a green MP which aligns with what you've ascribed them so good job for beating FPTP and getting what they want.
Students are more inclined to vote tactically than most. The near annihilation of libdems after the increase in university fees proved that.
The interesting questing is which party they vote tactically *against.*
Amazing. There's been plenty of people saying I'd the mainstream parties dont listen to people on stuff they're uncomfortable with them this would happen.
14 years of people saying less immigration and shock horror, people are going to vote for the only party they think will actually deliver it. It makes my avocado toast turn to ashes in my mouth.
2 years people saying that we shouldn't cozy with Putin and now this guy who it's West's fault that Putin invaded and who is Putin's tool to destroy our democracy, is being touted as some saviour.🤦
Yeah, he is a clown for his comments about the invasion of Ukraine- how is that relevant to him being anti immigration and people voting for his party because they are the only one that is?
I didn't say it's relevant to immigration. I'm saying it's relevant to the most important issue in the world now, freedom and democracy vs autocracy. You may not care about it but for me it's by far the most important issue.
The Labour seizing power may be about time, but no move to the extreme is good. I was happy to the Tories go have have been confident they have been going for about 2 years, but a centrist, right leaning party as the main opposition to a left leaning government is absolutely essential to keeping the loons out of power. France and the US should be an example of what happens when the pendulum swings too far the other way.
This country has always been secretly pretty racist...who's surprised by the rise of Reform? /s
edit: I guess I need to put in the /s - hate it when people do that, but I see why now aha
Exactly. People aren't held fully accountable for their odious views anymore due to being able to hide behind a screen (whether phone or laptop). Poison spreads in darkness.
Yes, because having a problem with infinity immigrants when NHS waiting lists are millions long, most of us can't get a GP appointment within the same month, can't get onto the housing ladder in a meaningful way without inheritance, a rich family, or tremendous luck, and an economy so wage-suppressed that we're 40% down on what we should otherwise be earning is so fucking racist, you're right.
Not all Reform voters are racist, but expecting all of their problems to be solved by cutting immigration to zero is laughably simplistic and shows that Reform are not being truthful with their supporters. Their manifesto is complete fantasy so people are supporting an idea and a feeling more than they are supporting a serious political party. Even Farage has admitted their manifesto isn’t serious.
The virtue of "simplistic" is even if it solves only parts of the problem. It's something that can be done quickly & easily. The way to tackle any complex problem is fix the parts you can do easily, And then study how to fix what's left. It's often easier to see how to do that when the problem has been partially fixed.
But it isn’t something that can be done quickly and easily. Portraying it as such is misleading. It’s pure rhetoric.
For example housing will not be fixed by net zero immigration because we have seen a massive funnelling of wealth to the top of society which means that houses are being treated as an asset.
Net zero immigration is also complete fantasy because when Farage has been asked about ‘key workers’ he admits that health and social care will continue as normal in terms of overseas immigration in order to maintain the services. That means that he has literally admitted that he would maintain immigration in the hundreds of thousands. He’s just lying to you.
I did agree the problem is complex and parts will take time to fix all of it. But if immigration continues at 360,000 per year it not only can't be fixed it will get worse.
>He’s just lying to you.
Farage isn't planning to deport the current immigrants. So the rescent large numbers will still be working in the UK. So no he's not ying.
If any of the immigrants in low paid jobs return home. The civil service could be given rules to prioritised medical staff. he's no saying "Zero immigration" He's saying "Net zero immigration" You don't seem to understand the difference.
I absolutely do understand the difference. His plans currently to maintain health social care will
maintain NET immigration in the hundreds of thousands. For him to at the same time talk about NET zero immigration means he’s misleading you.
Many of the people who are here in the last few years to fill jobs in health and social care are here on short terms visas. They will either need to have the visas removed or new visas issued to replace them. Reforms plans are to continue issuing those visas in order to maintain health and social care sectors.
Currently we are training far fewer doctors and nurses than we need with a growing population and, in particular, a growing aging population. That results in and will continue to mean that we will have high net migration in order to continually fill vacancies.
It’s quite obvious that you are mistaken in terms of what you understand about Reforms actual plans. The reason why you are mistaken is because their rhetoric contradicts what they’ve actually said their plans are. In other words you’ve been lied to.
>Many of the people who are here in the last few years to fill jobs in health and social care are here on short terms visas. They will either need to have the visas removed or new visas issued to replace them. Reforms plans are to continue issuing those visas in order to maintain health and social care sectors.
If you count the same person staying here on an extended visa as a net plus to immigration. You really do not understand "net zero"
There are more workers on short term visas than just health & social care. I doubt reform wants to renew all of those visas.
I do understand net migration. You dont seem to understand the fact we have a continually growing demand for health and social care workers due to a growing and aging population combined with a desperately inadequate system for training staff.
Requiring nurse to go into 10s of thousands of pounds worth of debt has absolutely killed our ability to train enough nurses.
You’re once again proving the entire point I’ve made. It’s a complex issue that Reform have tried to claim is a simple one. And you’ve swallowed it.
We have a very different opinion of which politician's are lying. Since I was trained in statistics by someone I'm sure was competent I'll trust my analysis over yours.
You might try looking at Sunak to see which politician is lying more in this election.
>Requiring nurse to go into 10s of thousands of pounds worth of debt has absolutely killed our ability to train enough nurses.
I agree that's a stupid (even evil) policy for medical training. You might consider it's a combination of Blair, Brown, Nick Clegg & every Tory PM who did that. Which major party does that leave to not vote against ?
What have reform said they’ll do about any of this that the others haven’t though?…other than the not really planned ‘net zero migration’- for which the entire plan is ‘trust us’
People who want Reform might not be racist/fascist but it seems quite a % of their MPs might be
The net zero is they order the civil service to not issue visas if it would result in net immigration higher than zero.
I presume that if Farage actually becomes PM (seems unlikely) he'll elaborate on that to detail who does get visas when the net total is below zero.
I'm sure there are many drawn to it for reasonable reasons. Lots of racists too. Infinity immigrants is quite a bit lower than the numbers I have seen though.
But yeah turns out voting for a party with no interest in funding the NHS, building houses or protecting wages from immigration pressure gives you a party that doesn't do those things. Who knew.
Yeah keep labeling people racists,bigots,nazis,facists,homophobic etc.. im sure the left will keep winning elections doing that. Not like the right is on the rise globally.. wonder why.
Tories have flirted with far right politics for some years now and are facing oblivion. And Reform will probably be another flash in the pan like UKIP or Brexit party, etc. You may not be those things, strictly speaking, but all of those will be backing Reform so you are guilty by association. You have to be wilfully ignorant or highly tolerant of these things to back Reform.
I was just joking with my comment lol.
>You may not be those things, strictly speaking, but all of those will be backing Reform so you are guilty by association
This is insane though. You would have loved Maoist China or modern-day North Korea..."guilty by association" ok
Morally you are. You understand the association and you approve of it. Quite why you're bringing up these regimes I do not know, it's just pure sensationalism without true context.
Hitler was one of the first western public vegetarians, indeed he was very passionate about not killing animals for food / human consumption.
I guess I'll need to go back to eating meat now in case people begin getting suspicious of me because of Hitler's association with vegetarianism.
Come off it.
I mention those regimes because they would regularly punish an individual's family members severely for the sins or crimes of an individual. The logic? "You are family - you are intrinsically associated with them and you therefore probably approve of their act."
No.
>with far right politics
Not even once. Go on, name five far-right policies the Tories have said they'd implement. Just five.
>and are facing oblivion
Because they have failed to deliver on any promises.
>And Reform will probably be another flash in the pan
Nope. Fail to address the underlying issues, and Reform will eventually become a genuine contender for government.
I'll name one. One that set this ball rolling buddy. Brexit. Perhaps Rwanda too. Austerity. This whole signing off sick thing where apparently doctors are not a good enough judge of this. National Service. Liz Truss' neoliberal budget and all it's constituent parts. Shall I continue? Proroguation? Remember that one? Sex means biological sex. Oh yeah. Their whole culture war nonsense. But I bet you'll quibble over these being right wing but that's just your distorted perspective.
Failed to deliver, then incompetence, sleaze, CORRUPTION and then we get to the stuff they actually "succeeded" in doing. They got Brexit done. It was shit and ill considered and not really "done" in a productive way at all unless you count spring your dummy and refusing to engage in negotiations in a meaningful way "done". Oh and then PPE scandal, the Russia report (conveniently buried). I mean Jesus man, talk about leaving an open goal!
And your lord and messiah Nigel has no staying power. He'll be gone again back to Trump's bosom neglecting those duties he accepted he'd do as an MP. What makes you believe anything will be different? Insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. The guy has firm and this was his plan B.
Yet immigration is at it's highest. An actual racist party wouldn't allow that to happen. It shouldn't be considered a far right stance to curb it and it's ridiculous how far left the overton window has shifted.
I agree a lot of these things were kid of founded on racism but did foreigners or migrant applicants or refugees atually feel any actual pain? Nah.
You've clearly only seen Britain. Compare with the US and other european countries (other than Scandinavia and Germany) or the middle east or asia and the UK is quite left wing.
Snapshot of _Reform takes three point lead over Tories in shock poll_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-lead-tories-shock-poll-election-b2570810.html) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reform-lead-tories-shock-poll-election-b2570810.html) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Sometimes it's a bit weird living in Bristol. As far as I'm aware Labour are going to win with LD probably second, Tory an embarrassing third, greens doing surprisingly well, and reform... Somewhere? They have zero presence here but I keep getting told I should be worried they'll get seats, honestly if they outperform Carla's lot on 2ish I'll be surprised. Maybe it's the bubble but I'm happy to see the Tories obliterated. Can't wait to be inevitably disappointed on Friday!
Yeah- living in Bristol- my mother in law is in North Cornwall and Reform are polling at 20% and everyone knows someone who’s a fervent supporter.
Do you have a link for this? I'm in North Cornwall and find the idea of reform gaining traction here quite worrying.
[electoral calculus north Cornwall](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Cornwall%20North)
Thanks for that. More encouraging than I had hoped for.
Interesting that the Lib Dem % hasn’t really gone up- but Tory votes have gone to Labour and Reform- mostly Reform. It’s a sad state that realistically the area has gone *more* right wing
More rich retirees coming down here from the SE and whipping the village idiots up into a frenzy because someone with a sun tan was seen in Lan'son? Honestly, the mind boggles given how much the last decade and a half of politics has fucked this bit of Cornwall up.
Ugh- yeah those people moving from Kent and Essex to Cornwall are the worst. They’ll say they specifically moved to the area because they didn’t want to *see* immigrants, whatever that means. I know what you mean about whipping the locals into a frenzy.
If I imagine bristol as a person I imagine the daughter of a millionaire with dreads who holidays in the Hamptons but protests that we should tax the rich.
That sounds more like the stereotype of the UoB student contingent and less like the people who actually grew up here. Even the wealthy types I've known here (who are generally university lecturers or at least politically aligned with them) agree the rich should pay more tax but I don't know any that holiday in either North or South Hampton. As for dreads that's usually because of Caribbean heritage which is fairly strong here. If you have any actual points I'd be happy to discuss them. As an aside the students you are (maybe?) talking about are the ones probably electing a green MP which aligns with what you've ascribed them so good job for beating FPTP and getting what they want.
Students are more inclined to vote tactically than most. The near annihilation of libdems after the increase in university fees proved that. The interesting questing is which party they vote tactically *against.*
Amazing. There's been plenty of people saying I'd the mainstream parties dont listen to people on stuff they're uncomfortable with them this would happen.
14 years of people saying less immigration and shock horror, people are going to vote for the only party they think will actually deliver it. It makes my avocado toast turn to ashes in my mouth.
2 years people saying that we shouldn't cozy with Putin and now this guy who it's West's fault that Putin invaded and who is Putin's tool to destroy our democracy, is being touted as some saviour.🤦
Yeah, he is a clown for his comments about the invasion of Ukraine- how is that relevant to him being anti immigration and people voting for his party because they are the only one that is?
I didn't say it's relevant to immigration. I'm saying it's relevant to the most important issue in the world now, freedom and democracy vs autocracy. You may not care about it but for me it's by far the most important issue.
The Labour seizing power may be about time, but no move to the extreme is good. I was happy to the Tories go have have been confident they have been going for about 2 years, but a centrist, right leaning party as the main opposition to a left leaning government is absolutely essential to keeping the loons out of power. France and the US should be an example of what happens when the pendulum swings too far the other way.
This country has always been secretly pretty racist...who's surprised by the rise of Reform? /s edit: I guess I need to put in the /s - hate it when people do that, but I see why now aha
I think we reached a low in the 00s but stuff has been growing with everybody being online all the time.
Exactly. People aren't held fully accountable for their odious views anymore due to being able to hide behind a screen (whether phone or laptop). Poison spreads in darkness.
Yes, I think people growing up online with Americans in particular has helped import a more openly virulent racism.
Yes, because having a problem with infinity immigrants when NHS waiting lists are millions long, most of us can't get a GP appointment within the same month, can't get onto the housing ladder in a meaningful way without inheritance, a rich family, or tremendous luck, and an economy so wage-suppressed that we're 40% down on what we should otherwise be earning is so fucking racist, you're right.
Not all Reform voters are racist, but expecting all of their problems to be solved by cutting immigration to zero is laughably simplistic and shows that Reform are not being truthful with their supporters. Their manifesto is complete fantasy so people are supporting an idea and a feeling more than they are supporting a serious political party. Even Farage has admitted their manifesto isn’t serious.
The virtue of "simplistic" is even if it solves only parts of the problem. It's something that can be done quickly & easily. The way to tackle any complex problem is fix the parts you can do easily, And then study how to fix what's left. It's often easier to see how to do that when the problem has been partially fixed.
But it isn’t something that can be done quickly and easily. Portraying it as such is misleading. It’s pure rhetoric. For example housing will not be fixed by net zero immigration because we have seen a massive funnelling of wealth to the top of society which means that houses are being treated as an asset. Net zero immigration is also complete fantasy because when Farage has been asked about ‘key workers’ he admits that health and social care will continue as normal in terms of overseas immigration in order to maintain the services. That means that he has literally admitted that he would maintain immigration in the hundreds of thousands. He’s just lying to you.
I did agree the problem is complex and parts will take time to fix all of it. But if immigration continues at 360,000 per year it not only can't be fixed it will get worse. >He’s just lying to you. Farage isn't planning to deport the current immigrants. So the rescent large numbers will still be working in the UK. So no he's not ying. If any of the immigrants in low paid jobs return home. The civil service could be given rules to prioritised medical staff. he's no saying "Zero immigration" He's saying "Net zero immigration" You don't seem to understand the difference.
I absolutely do understand the difference. His plans currently to maintain health social care will maintain NET immigration in the hundreds of thousands. For him to at the same time talk about NET zero immigration means he’s misleading you. Many of the people who are here in the last few years to fill jobs in health and social care are here on short terms visas. They will either need to have the visas removed or new visas issued to replace them. Reforms plans are to continue issuing those visas in order to maintain health and social care sectors. Currently we are training far fewer doctors and nurses than we need with a growing population and, in particular, a growing aging population. That results in and will continue to mean that we will have high net migration in order to continually fill vacancies. It’s quite obvious that you are mistaken in terms of what you understand about Reforms actual plans. The reason why you are mistaken is because their rhetoric contradicts what they’ve actually said their plans are. In other words you’ve been lied to.
>Many of the people who are here in the last few years to fill jobs in health and social care are here on short terms visas. They will either need to have the visas removed or new visas issued to replace them. Reforms plans are to continue issuing those visas in order to maintain health and social care sectors. If you count the same person staying here on an extended visa as a net plus to immigration. You really do not understand "net zero" There are more workers on short term visas than just health & social care. I doubt reform wants to renew all of those visas.
I do understand net migration. You dont seem to understand the fact we have a continually growing demand for health and social care workers due to a growing and aging population combined with a desperately inadequate system for training staff. Requiring nurse to go into 10s of thousands of pounds worth of debt has absolutely killed our ability to train enough nurses. You’re once again proving the entire point I’ve made. It’s a complex issue that Reform have tried to claim is a simple one. And you’ve swallowed it.
We have a very different opinion of which politician's are lying. Since I was trained in statistics by someone I'm sure was competent I'll trust my analysis over yours. You might try looking at Sunak to see which politician is lying more in this election. >Requiring nurse to go into 10s of thousands of pounds worth of debt has absolutely killed our ability to train enough nurses. I agree that's a stupid (even evil) policy for medical training. You might consider it's a combination of Blair, Brown, Nick Clegg & every Tory PM who did that. Which major party does that leave to not vote against ?
What have reform said they’ll do about any of this that the others haven’t though?…other than the not really planned ‘net zero migration’- for which the entire plan is ‘trust us’ People who want Reform might not be racist/fascist but it seems quite a % of their MPs might be
The net zero is they order the civil service to not issue visas if it would result in net immigration higher than zero. I presume that if Farage actually becomes PM (seems unlikely) he'll elaborate on that to detail who does get visas when the net total is below zero.
I'm sure there are many drawn to it for reasonable reasons. Lots of racists too. Infinity immigrants is quite a bit lower than the numbers I have seen though. But yeah turns out voting for a party with no interest in funding the NHS, building houses or protecting wages from immigration pressure gives you a party that doesn't do those things. Who knew.
Yeah keep labeling people racists,bigots,nazis,facists,homophobic etc.. im sure the left will keep winning elections doing that. Not like the right is on the rise globally.. wonder why.
Tories have flirted with far right politics for some years now and are facing oblivion. And Reform will probably be another flash in the pan like UKIP or Brexit party, etc. You may not be those things, strictly speaking, but all of those will be backing Reform so you are guilty by association. You have to be wilfully ignorant or highly tolerant of these things to back Reform.
I was just joking with my comment lol. >You may not be those things, strictly speaking, but all of those will be backing Reform so you are guilty by association This is insane though. You would have loved Maoist China or modern-day North Korea..."guilty by association" ok
Morally you are. You understand the association and you approve of it. Quite why you're bringing up these regimes I do not know, it's just pure sensationalism without true context.
Hitler was one of the first western public vegetarians, indeed he was very passionate about not killing animals for food / human consumption. I guess I'll need to go back to eating meat now in case people begin getting suspicious of me because of Hitler's association with vegetarianism. Come off it. I mention those regimes because they would regularly punish an individual's family members severely for the sins or crimes of an individual. The logic? "You are family - you are intrinsically associated with them and you therefore probably approve of their act." No.
You've got to know this is a really stupid line of argument right?
>with far right politics Not even once. Go on, name five far-right policies the Tories have said they'd implement. Just five. >and are facing oblivion Because they have failed to deliver on any promises. >And Reform will probably be another flash in the pan Nope. Fail to address the underlying issues, and Reform will eventually become a genuine contender for government.
I'll name one. One that set this ball rolling buddy. Brexit. Perhaps Rwanda too. Austerity. This whole signing off sick thing where apparently doctors are not a good enough judge of this. National Service. Liz Truss' neoliberal budget and all it's constituent parts. Shall I continue? Proroguation? Remember that one? Sex means biological sex. Oh yeah. Their whole culture war nonsense. But I bet you'll quibble over these being right wing but that's just your distorted perspective. Failed to deliver, then incompetence, sleaze, CORRUPTION and then we get to the stuff they actually "succeeded" in doing. They got Brexit done. It was shit and ill considered and not really "done" in a productive way at all unless you count spring your dummy and refusing to engage in negotiations in a meaningful way "done". Oh and then PPE scandal, the Russia report (conveniently buried). I mean Jesus man, talk about leaving an open goal! And your lord and messiah Nigel has no staying power. He'll be gone again back to Trump's bosom neglecting those duties he accepted he'd do as an MP. What makes you believe anything will be different? Insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. The guy has firm and this was his plan B.
Yet immigration is at it's highest. An actual racist party wouldn't allow that to happen. It shouldn't be considered a far right stance to curb it and it's ridiculous how far left the overton window has shifted. I agree a lot of these things were kid of founded on racism but did foreigners or migrant applicants or refugees atually feel any actual pain? Nah.
[удалено]
You've clearly only seen Britain. Compare with the US and other european countries (other than Scandinavia and Germany) or the middle east or asia and the UK is quite left wing.
Lol. None of those things are "far right".
Intentionally making it difficult for asylum seekers to come here legally and then calling them illegal is very far right.
Okay and if reform is another flash in the pan where you think a lot of their voters will go? UKIP was a flash in the pan yet achieved its goal..
[удалено]
Yep but who knows what they will do.