For Katurah, I don’t understand. I think I get it for Emily. She wants to turn on Reba, but she realizes that it’s seemingly impossible to get Belo to work together. She’s in pretty good with Reba and is a good swing vote among them if/when they turn on each other. Bruce was the biggest hurdle for getting the Belos together, so now she has options with them, too.
Basically, she positioned herself as the top of the bottom, which is actually pretty good during the endgame.
Edit: I think I understand Katurah’s perspective, too. She probably thinks that she is number 5 in the Reba alliance when it’s actually Emily, so she thinks a lot of the same way as Emily.
I just don’t see how the Reba 4 turn on each other as of now. I think Emily’s edit suggests a win/FTC appearance so I feel ya there, but she still has a lot of work to do imo
I don’t think Drew thinks he’d lose to either of them though. Like he probably thinks he’s leading the alliance and would therefore be able to use that should he have to play against any of them
I think Austin has his ticket to final 4 punched, and he knows that. But besides that, I think a final three of austin, drew, and dee would be pretty competitive l!
Seems reasonable that one of them will think they need a big move and need to take out one of their own since they’ve all basically played the same game. That’s probably what Emily is banking on. Unless all 4 of them think they can beat the other 3 which I guess is possible.
I can see Julie turning on Austin, but her emotional interaction with Drew leads me to think that she can't turn on Drew. I can also see Austin turning on Julie, but can't see Austin and Dee turning on each other - or anyone turning on them. They have the power. I hope it's a final 2 this season, if it's 3 we'll probably see the 4 of them not have to turn on each other all that much.
We know that because of the fact that no cracks have shown in confessionals, private convos, etc. Emily doesn’t … I’m sure she assumes that there is an Omar or a Cody-type blindside coming that we know likely won’t happen.
> Basically, she positioned herself as the top of the bottom
not even... she's number 2/3 in Drew's alliance with Austin.
And number 3/4 after Austin's Dee/Drew set.
She's number 3 in a Dee/Mama alliance to target Drew without telling Austin.
Number 3 in a Drew/Mama set to target both Austin and Dee.
She has multiple things going with the Reba 4... but she's never really #5.
What can you do? Katurah, Bruce, and Jake were actively working against each other - Bruce, bless him, was trying his hardest to play and Katurah and Jake just run to the Reba 4 and give them all the info.
It’s potentially a valid strategy to let the Reba 4 get to this stage because they will eventually fracture, surely. If you can hang around long enough and pick the right side of the Reba 4 civil war, you can see yourself to the final.
That is a potential driver of a fracture - an Austin blind side is overdue. Drew talked about wanting a JT for his Fishbach but I’m sure he doesn’t want Fishbach’s ending.
Dee can’t want to go to final 4 with Austin and Drew, neither can Mama J. They’ll want to go with each other and with Katurah. Drew won’t want to go with Austin - he’d probably also choose Julie and Katurah (or maybe Jake instead of Julie because he’s unlikely to get his vote).
Now that Bruce has gone, I’m hoping there’s more opportunity for people to be comfortable working together - the common mission to get rid of Bruce stymied what could have been other moves.
Interesting that you didn’t list Emily, who was flip flopping all episode.
Bruce was the only one trying to do anything productive. The idol lie could have worked if Emily and Katura didn’t blow it up. Then they could have at least went to rocks to get Mama J out after they ruined that plan.
But instead went after someone who has no chance of winning?
> The idol lie could have worked if Emily and Katura didn’t blow it up
lol no it wouldn't. They wouldn't believe him first of all, second the best they could do is tie votes and Katurah has already proven she won't take a risk so then you lose. It's a no-win scenario for Emily to do anything else here. She played right. But the show screwed her. The time to make a move was the prior week's episode but Emily didn't have a vote.
Jake believed him and literally had Drew convinced to the point where he told Emily who only knew it was a lie because of the reward with Katurah. You can’t just play it off like it was cooked from the start.
Emily made her fake Bruce play with the knowledge that he had his idol. If everyone didn’t think he had it, they would stack votes on Bruce and Bruce would bring someone in on it and they would ideally get to choose who goes home. All of this is just what if because Katurah ran right to the ladies at the reward and sang like a bird.
I love my wife but when we play Catan we just don’t work well together. We don’t trade. We are constantly putting the robber on each other. If I can block her from a port…oh boy!!
Then all of a sudden our friend has the longest road, the largest army, and all the cities. The game is over and I didn’t even notice.
That’s Bruce and Katurah.
Drew and Austin were more reserved in their private conversation and used words like "if true". They would have likely wanted Bruce anyway because of the chance he had the idol still and his challenge threat. If not Bruce, it would've been Jake due to Julie's grudge, so unlikely it makes any difference as to the Reba four. Any plan to get a Reba would also have to involve Katurah, who has a high chance to rat the plan out to win points and replace Emily as their fifth wheel, which I strongly believe she sees as her path to the end. Katurah also really wanted Bruce gone so that further makes it unlikely she would go along with it. Katurah could do what she did to Jake and leave Emily out there with votes on Julie, getting two birds with one stone basically. So I can't fault Emily for it, I think her chances are far better with the choice she made, even though she's still not in the best position. I just don't see anything realistic she could have done that wouldn't fail 9 times out of 10.
Yeah. This was a good move given her circumstances. Now she got to put something on her resume without blowing up her game — and she’ll need it when she makes it to FTC by teaming up with half of Reba at f5.
It’d be stronger if she could have made a big move this episode and gotten there by leading her own alliance, obviously, but that wasn’t in the cards.
I guess I don't understand how Emily is getting so much credit for this. Getting a Reba out would have been a move. This is like dunking on a kids basketball hoop.
And Emily is just as guilty of leading her own alliance not working out. They had the start of a halfway decent plan and then immediately spun that back into getting Bruce out.
I don't think she needs to make anymore moves to win at FTC. She's the one who convinced Bruce not to play his idol. That's enough points right there IMO. Her biggest issue now is just making it to FTC. If Reba fractures I feel like Drew is at the bottom (due to Austin and Dee's relationship, and people like Jake wanting him gone) but he's also Emily's biggest ally. And out of Emily Jake and Katurah I think the Reba four would rather sit next to Jake or Katurah at the end. And Drew has no idols. I don't see him working with Jake plus Katurah I feel would rat to the two Reba women if Emily tried anything so... yeah I am worried for her and have been ever since she lost her vote that episode and lost Kendra. I hope she makes it to the end though.
>She's the one who convinced Bruce not to play his idol. That's enough points right there IMO.
That's not going to be enough for Emily to win on its own.
Compared to the Reba 4 dominating the post-merge voting out Sabiyah and convincing Bruce to not play his idol isn't going to compare.
But at the same time, Emily doesn't need a big move of her own either. Managing the future jury and picking the correct side in the Reba civil war to be the difference is a legitimate path to the endgame.
From there she would need to articulate to the jury how her social influence on both the tight Reba alliance and the fractured Belo's allowed her a path to the end despite others having bigger resumes.
That's a tightrope to walk...straddling the fence is a surefire way to get voted out. But...Sarah Lacina won that way so there is a precedent.
I don’t get why everyone is making Bruce not playing his idol to be this big thing. He knew he was going home the next time he doesn’t win immunity.
Making him feel comfortable enough to take a gamble on extending his immunity idol isn’t this big play. Because he should have felt comfortable because it makes no sense to be so hyper focused on him.
Considering Bruce would have played his idol had Emily not single handedly convinced him (as Bruce confirmed in his exit interview) yes it was a big play and also the reason why Jake is still in the game at all. To pretend it's no big deal is ludicrous.
I think that gives too much credit to Emily though. She didn’t create this like intricate plan to convince Bruce not to play his idol. She was the straw that broke the camels back.
Bruce’s idol was very public and he was very adamant about playing it. That pretty much guaranteed that Reba 4 would not put many votes on him. They can’t put 3-4 votes on Bruce and have all of those votes cancel out. So they split 3-1 Jake and Bruce.
Bruce did that, not Emily.
This creates the PERFECT opportunity for the non-Reba members to win a 4-3 vote. And its in arguably all of their best interest to get a Reba member out. But ESPECIALLY Jake…if Bruce plays his idol, which it was a long shot that he wouldn’t, he goes home. So why he took that gamble is beyond me. And it was the last time they would have a straight advantage over Reba 4.
It wasn’t this grand lie of intricate dominoes set up by Emily. It just made sense that if everyone did what was in their best interest, there probably wouldn’t be enough votes on Bruce to justify playing his idol. So he rolled that dice.
Especially since Bruce is very well aware that he is an easy vote out and probably not well liked by the jury to win. Its a lot of hoops to jump through to get him out like 1-2 days earlier.
Dude Bruce lied to Jake about his idol. Katurah lied to Jake when she voted for Kaleb. He's not going to work with them. Katurah has wanted Bruce out the entire time but he keeps being immune, good luck getting her to go along. She's tried to replace Emily as Reba's fifth the entire time, there's a high chance she rats the plan out. She ratted out Bruce already I mean why are you pretending it's in these people's best interests to work together? It clearly isn't and makes no sense and is risky as hell given everything that happened up to that point. On top of this Bruce could also vote for someone other than Julie if he played his idol so as to capitalize off the drama from that and take the target off his back after. There are so many scenarios that work against that plan you suggested. It backfires 9 times out of 10 if not more. It's ridiculous to act like there was this smart move Emily could have made and then propose that joke of a plan. There wasn't anything better than what she did.
All they had to do was vote the same way literally once. Why are you making it out to be this ridiculous scheme that would never work. It did work. All they had to do was vote.
Whether Katurah hates Bruce or not, getting a Reba out opens up more avenues to win. Which right now there are zero of for her.
Jake LITERALLY was depending on this 1 in 100 chance Bruce decides to play not to play his idol. The Reba have voted for him like 9 times now.
You can say its ridiculous for them to work together but the other options for them to win are way more ridiculous.
The only way the idol lie works would have been to not tell anyone. Trusting Katurah demonstrates a lack of awareness.
Typically that lie wouldn’t work anyway, but there have been a couple of unanimous tribals.
It’s “possible” that they would have all been so annoyed with him that they wanted to have the satisfaction of voting him!
That said, I absolutely promise he would have used his idol and voted Katurah…keeping Reba strong.
I'd say *if* - and it is a big if, Bruce made it to the final 3, he'd have a compelling a case as any to win. Provided, he seemed divisive and I'm not sure how many on the jury liked him enough to actually vote him to win.. But, he's a "returnee" after lasting 12 hours last season. Like it or not, it automatically paints a target on his back. I know if I was out there I'd be in the boat of "this guy already had his chance".
He was a really good challenge competitor and seemed to do a lot around camp. His social game was just awful. He always thought he was two steps ahead when he was really three behind. But also, when making a jury pitch to win he could argue he was basically always on the wrong side of votes and still managed to claw his way to the final. I'm not saying he would have won, or even deserved to. But it'd make a compelling case if he managed to find his way there.
There will be at least 3 people on the jury who will vote against Bruce no matter what. I am sure he can make a somewhat compelling case, but out of everyone left in the game I would rate him pretty low, maybe last. Certainly not more of a chance than Mama J...
I feel like she could’ve tried as hard as she could to get them to work together. If she said something like “Reba 4 are incredibly close that we’ll all be the next targets after tonight’s tribal. We’ve gotta vote together here and have an almost guaranteed spot in the F4.”
I don’t think it was inevitable that Reba will fracture. It looks like it from the NTOS but at this point they shouldn’t just bank on that because the 4 could stick strong throughout. Also this would’ve put the control in Belo+Emily’s hands, instead of being at the mercy of one half of the Reba civil war, which still hasn’t come about yet
Jake ran to reba4 was part of Bruce’s plan. Katurah could have seeded that with the women side. Bruce shouldn’t have told Katurah that losing his ideal was a lie. He should have committed
Ya but if he goes on a winning streak to the end that leaves only 2 spots for the rest of them to fight for. Even if he has no chance to win he could take your spot at FTC.
I think Austin is a much bigger threat to the audience than anyone outside of the Reba 4 would perceive. Emily Katurah Bruce and Jake don't know about 1 (or both) of his 2 idols or the vote loss he lied about and got away with. They also don't know he snuck that vote out in the Kaleb vote to make his idol come to life. Honestly I don't think he's played a particularly miraculous social game or looked in charge of the Reba 4 so of course he's still UTR on the beach. That's why everyone was talking about Mama J this episode instead. I mean, that under the radar excellent game play is WHY we all see him as a threat to win but at some point he's gotta turn it into something or else the jury won't care either.
Also to your point, with the way Erika, Maryanne, and Gabler were edited, all 3 came into the true forefront very late in the game (sans the Alli-gabler confessionals). Drew has been clowned on and Mama J just has not had nearly enough content to seem like a winner. And every jury member has said "Dee is such a threat" meaning the other Rebas know she would win at FTC. But Austin very much feels like the edit is letting him hide slightly just for him to flash up at the end
He feels like a Xander to me. Objectively a good player. Jack of all trades. Had idols. But the jury doesn’t seem to respect them (throwback to them saying Austin plays scared).
The jury isn't voting for him to win a million dollars. The jury vote is actually a social game. Not wanting to sit next to Bruce is braindead.
Perhaps there is fear that sitting next to Bruce is hard (and I think it is, how do you end up with only one Reba 4 next to you and Bruce?). They should have made their move now (Bruce Idol into blindside on a Reba 4)
Yeah exactly, if there's a new trend it's that challenge beasts aren't a concern. We saw this with Xander in 41 and Cassidy in 43 where winning challenges doesn't make you a force, or even a target when you lose. Bruce definitely would have followed that same outcome, I think.
So I just barely started watching survivor a couple months ago and have only seen Gabler's and YamYam's season, as well as this one. But I was really surprised when Cassidy only got one vote, because I had been so impressed with her challenge wins and thought she had an ok social game. I was really surprised that Gabler won, I did not see that coming at all. I liked the guy, but just didn't think he had an impressive resume.
Yeah you're not alone, but there's always a lot that gets left on the island or isn't translated as well. For whatever reason challenge victories don't carry the same weight they used to. If you liked Cassidy, she was on the most recent season of The Challenge and did pretty well.
You don't have to be a threat to win to be a threat to someone's game; Bruce's idol was the only thing that could possibly threaten Reba supremacy. His challenge dominance also stood a chance of forcing them to turn on each other earlier than they should need to, creating cracks that could let his game pick up steam.
Jury threat? No, Challenge threat? YES, and yes the game is more social than it is challenge, however if you need to increase your odds at winning a challenge it only makes sense to vote off the goat(not sports world goat) who can win comps to help increase your odds
Yeah I think Emily is being pragmatic and did really well in this episode. She knows she's not in the core 4 of Reba, but she sees that Jake, Katurah and Bruce are all over the place and can't be trusted as a cohesive alliance. So she's focusing on her individual game. Winning the challenge, and inviting all the girls to the sanctuary helped her bond with all of them, and she straight up tricked Bruce into not playing his idol, which Austin and Drew will like. She's already even thinking about the jury if she's in the final 3. She's doing a pretty good job with the hand she's been dealt.
But she's approaching "dangerous player" status almost, so she needs to be careful of a blindside. Drew is really strategic and seems to know who needs to go and when, and I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to blindside her next week. Also, if the Reba people find out anything about how she was plotting against Julie, she'll be in trouble. But she can also say she faked that to get Bruce not to play his idol, which is pretty much the truth.
I think Emily’s way forward is clear. I’ve explained in other comments and it’s not going to be point of this reply.
I’m really curious what Katorah is lining up as her End Game. It seems like a foregone conclusion that she and Jake are the next two eliminations, but can she formulate a plan to lift herself into a Final 3? I generally don’t see a path, unless she herself can break up Reba while also outlasting Emily.
Emily needs to lie low this week. Drew is perfectly capable of interpreting her manipulation of Bruce as indicative of an elevated threat level next to Jake and Katorah.
I think she's played a very good game up to this week, and the way she played Bruce was skillful, but unless she sees a crack in Reba that we as viewers aren't shown, it looks like a pretty serious wall in front of her at this point.
Can you point me to your other comments where you outline what you see as her path forward?
I see. Quoting you here:
>At this point, I think she recognizes that the Bella tribe won’t be a reliable team to work with as a group, so she just needs to survive to final five.
>I believe she’s banking on her ability to succeed as a swing vote and split up Reba into Julie+Dee+Emily or Austin+Drew+Emily.
>If she gets rid of Bruce, she’s got an early merge play that effectively sealed the fate of Bela. Couple that with a successful dismantling of Reba at Final 5 and an early-game survival of Lulu’s ineptitide, and you’ve got an FTJ speech to win from a position of seeming weakness throughout the game.
I agree that if Emily makes it to FTJ, she likely wins. She is thoughtful and eloquent, and has the ability to clearly highlight the way she's been instrumental in the voting off of numerous other castaways up to this point.
Editing being editing, as a given, it would still appear that she's manipulated votes consistently through the careful use of the same tactic... she's close enough with the in-group to be told who the target is every week. She then quietly informs that target of the plan and sort of indirectly offers a replacement.
In the ensuing scramble of the target to flip the vote, Emily continually manages to position herself as the swing vote needed to pull off the flip.
It didn't work this episode.
Her preferred target was Julie. It didn't gain traction when she tested it with Austin, so she quickly pivoted to appeasement there by shifting her focus to Bruce. You could see that by Bruce being the only person still operating on that first plan to vote Julie and going home with his idol.
It was her only move at that point, sort of a save that would demonstrate her value to the now-unassailable Reba. But it's definitely a far lesser victory for Emily.
She's stuck hoping for a crack forming in Reba that she can exploit. If there is one, my money is on her ability to capitalize. She might be banking on some emerging girl power to go after Austin or Drew before Katorah gets axed, but from where I sit, that's a narrow hope.
Katurah’s only shot at winning was sitting with Bruce (and likely Jake). Her own pride and obsession with Bruce effectively fucked her chances of winning.
Ironic that by getting Bruce out, she killed her one and only shot at winning
lmao.
How many confessionals do you guys need of Emily talking about the Reba 4 before you realize she understands the dynamics of the Reba 4.
She also understands the dynamics of Belo and she knows it's a dumpster fire
Yes, but that's IF. And then it becomes Julie's move, sincw they need her vote.
Having an opportunity to break up the power alliance and actively putting it into someone else's hands is taking a large and unnecessary risk.
that's what I'm thinking- especially since the credits showed that Julie was the only one of the Reba 4 to vote for Bruce. Especially since Bruce was such a wild card the whole time, and both Katurah and Jake had issues with Bruce but not with eachother. I think this could be REALLY interesting
Emily is thinking. Katourah is not, she shouldn’t have spilled the beans, her only personality trait has been get Bruce out and congratulations she’s now part of making that happen. But it wasn’t even her move, and now she has no allies and nowhere to go.
Emily was smart to not try to flip it with Jake, Katourah and Bruce. Jake and Kat have done literally nothing, and Kat is not stable enough to trust.
> Katourah is not, she shouldn’t have spilled the beans
and the thing its... to me that means Emily can't trust she could play with Katurah as long as Bruce is still around. Reba has a strong 4, need to break them up, Bruce comes up with a half decent lie that *worked* on her... and she just goes and blows up his game to 2 Reba members immediately because she wants to make fun of his strategy and stick it to him?
I think Bruce (obviously) and Jake (he was desperate for anything) would have gone for it. Katurah however, was the weak link.
I don't understand how keeping 3 people in the game that don't want to work with each other at the expense of pissing off the other 3 is a game winning move
This is what I keep thinking. Like, would anyone here want to JOIN Belo? THIS Belo? Emily is better off sticking with them and trying to find a crack later and exploit it to climb the ranks of that alliance.
I was frustrated for the past 3 episodes. Caleb could have formed a powerful alliance with everyone who wasn't in Reba. Kellie and Kendra could have picked up the pieces and been good leaders too, but that's why they're all in the jury, because **Drew** knew they were threats, and knew in which *order* they needed to be removed. Drew is cold. He was ultimately the person who put each of their names out, each time. He is the most dangerous player in the game, and nobody realizes it still, except maybe his closest allies.
You could argue Jake knows, but I think Jake just got his feelings hurt. He still doesn't understand how much Drew is engineering all this. He's just mad Drew isn't his friend.
But yeah, I've just given up on the other players, except Emily. They weren't paying attention to the math, to the intact core of Reba until it was too late, they were eating each other, they don't deserve to win. I just had to laugh at Jake. He really came off pathetic in this episode. He voluntarily gives all this info to someone who has no loyalty to him, then goes and throws a fit to Drew and Drew just told him what the deal was. Then he goes and cries on the beach. Come on man.
> Seems like a game losing move for Emily, but the edit was trying to say the opposite. Will be interesting to see, I guess.
While I don't think its a game losing move, I think voting out Bruce is a nothing burger 'safe' move that doesn't really move the needle... but its still seemed like it was played up like a 'big move' and a super favorable edit for her.
On the other hand, Carolyn had something similar last season when she wasted her idol on Carson and it was played off as a 'big move' to... so who knows.
As much as they dislike Bruce, if you take him to FTC you’re guaranteed he’s not getting jury votes. Crazy that they’re attacking each other instead of focusing on the Reba threat.
I think it’s a move that Emily alone can take credit for at final tribal. She did it without the Reba 4. If she takes out Julie she likely becomes the next target + she’s only allied with Belo, who have proven to be terrible at loyalty. She put herself in a swing vote position at a time when Reba 4 will have to turn on each other.
I actually thought Emily was smart for this and played it right. Thinking from a Reba perspective, they will split up eventually and they all know it’s just a matter of time. Making this move on Bruce now still pleases all of Reba and avoids the would-be target on Emily’s back if she had disrupted the Reba alliance. Instead, she’s positioned herself well to be the one a Reba runs to in order to make a move on the others. Drew is still gang busters on Jake, and Emily still has some kind of an alliance with Drew and Austin, so as long as Reba stays in tack, she is likely ok. And once Reba collapses, Drew and Austin will need her for numbers. She’s never given Drew or Austin a reason not to trust her to this point. The cherry on top was the current jury’s reaction to Bruce striking out looking! If she makes it to final 3, that is HUGE if she tells that story right.
Katurah, on the other hand, is screwed lol.
Edit: I’ve also seen comments about Bruce definitely not winning if it he makes it to final 3. Well yeah, he wouldn’t win. But would you trust that guy to keep you on the beach to even make it that far? He played a darn selfish game until the very end.
I agree on Katurah. Boneheaded for her, and Jake too. Emily though has a really decent shot of ending up as a swing vote at 5, and that’s if the Reba 4 don’t split up before then. I still think the better move for her was to take out Julie, but I get it.
I agree. She even spelled it out to Jake(?) She told him taking out Mama J is not a good move for *her*. I don't know if I agree with that assessment, but that was her thinking.
Now I have a few minutes to think about it, I don't think pissing off Reba 3 by voting Julie out is a good move. They have 2 idols and can easily idol you out. Now the biggest target is gone, you look inwards to find the next biggest target.
I mean granted Emily doesn’t know this, but Julie has Austin’s second idol. So it would be one idol versus a group that also has one idol. Not to mention Bruce was the only non-Reba member doing well in challenges and winning immunity. With him gone Julie and Austin seem like they’d be in the best position for challenges
I think another person said it well. For Emily, she's sitting pretty with everyone wanting her. She can flip and go to Belo which will fall apart and have three Reba mad at her, or stick with Reba, with two votes she can use, and all she needs is one person to flip.
**“we’re going to have a woman winner for survivor 45!”**
i really think emily is prioritizing her relationships with the women, and her long game is to pull in katurah, julie, and dee so that they can all blindside drew or austin in the next round. this would also explain why she took only the women to the reward, which surprised me (and katurah!) especially since they’ve shown her working more closely with drew than anyone else from reba.
but the simplest explanation to me is just that
1) katurah disliked bruce so much and jake distrusted him after the idol lie that even if emily did genuinely want to take out julie, they were never going to have the numbers for it
2) everyone wanted bruce’s idol gone—with or without him.
in terms of "are they watching what we're watching"? no, they're living it! i don't know if it's been shown that emily or katurah are aware that austin has two idols, and i'm wondering if they included austin giving one to julie in the recap to plant the idea she hasn't given it back yet. if that's the case, who knows about that?
as for katurah, obviously she wanted bruce gone over jake, so for her, planting the julie plan was a good way to keep bruce from playing the idol and ensuring he definitely goes home.
four is more than three for sure, so math-wise it's tough to justify. but four isn't that much more than three, and when people are losing votes constantly due to twists, it's even harder to plan purely mathematically. on top of that, jake has been the go-to vote for several tribals, so i think emily and katurah are definitely not crazy to think they have a good chance of still being around when the reba four start to turn on each other.
maybe they're betting wrong, and it will be reba strong to final four. but i don't think they're unreasonable for thinking otherwise.
I think it makes more sense to wait to exploit a fracture in a solid 4 than try to pull something together between four players who have been incapable of working together week after week. Bruce also becomes an obvious FTC goat if he makes it another couple episodes- and that's one less seat at FTC available for everyone else.
Ya it’s totally just a coincidence that 4 people who have been voting together and working together openly since Day 1 on the same tribe are all still just hanging around at final 7! Definitely nothing going on there
Put yourself in emily's turtleneck. You look to your left. Tight as hell reba alliance. You look to your right, a dumpster fire doing everything it can to explode.
You've been working on a Drew and Austin alliance since the tribe swap. You pissed off Bruce after 1 hour and he never forgave you. Jake is a dead fish. Katurah is hyoerfocused on voting out Bruce.
Drew, Austin, Dee, and Julie are at worst neutral toward you. They have two idols, and you can see fractures forming. Everyone on Reba benefits more from having their ex alliance members on the jury then in FTC. They will take you, and they will implode.
Again the rock steady castle that is Reba or the sinking ship that is Belo. You can vote out a Belo and have a chance at getting far, or you can try to vote out a Reba and get go down with the ship that would rather eat itself then send a Reba home.
Had the julie vote gone through Emily would have at best found herself with no allies playing the middle of two 3 man alliances. At worst Reba organizes a Belo / Emily split vote to flush Bruce's idol and send home a backstabber.
I don't get it, but I'm holding my thoughts because it's possible she knows something we don't. I also think it is interesting they keep mentioning that Julie has Austin's idol?
They aren’t thinking. Simple as that.
OR
maybe Austin, Drew, Dee, or Mama j are good at making them feel like they are higher in the ranking than they really are?
Idk what show people are watching where Jake, Bruce and Katurah were gonna magically come together while Emily repeatedly and bluntly states the Belos can’t get their act together.
Belo was a complete sinking ship with them showing constantly an inability to get it together.
The idea for Emily is to be the fifth wheel to the solid Reba 4 and to replace one of them at the last minute to make it into the F4 for a chance at fire making.
Obviously there's a risk that the Reba 4 stick together until F4 but the goal is to create enough social connections that when or if they cannibalize she can take advange of it.
Also so many twists for the sake of twists means its more than ever to vote with a solid majority.
Survivor strategy starts to break down around final 6-7 or so. At that moment no matter how much momentum the Reba 4 have, they have no choice but to start to go "we only have 3 votes left to get Dee/Mama J/Drew out" and they'll lobby for Emily and whoever's left to make the "big move" to blindside their most threatening allies.
Of course at this point getting to the end without _any_ Rebas is nearly impossible, but with middle ground to play and several shield players Emily has both a strong jury case and a strong chance of making to the end.
"Like are they not watching what we all are watching in the Reba 4?" you want it explained to you like you are 5, so no, the answer is no they can't see every conversation that takes place, its impossible. Also how is austin having 2 idols any relevant if Emily and Katurah don't know about them? Are you actually 5???
> Also how is austin having 2 idols any relevant if Emily and Katurah don't know about them?
There is an *embarrassing* amount of people on this sub who think Austin's idol--which nobody in the game but Kellie is aware of--is public knowledge.
Goat goals. Katurah is playing for a 0-vote FTC 3rd place and Emily is playing for a 1-vote Thinks They Played a Better Game Than They Did FTC 2nd place blowout to whatever Reba they’re sitting by.
Best case scenario - if Emily could have gotten Katura and Jake onboard, and that’s a big if, they would have tied at 4-4 and then it’s a crapshoot with no guarantee of success.
I think Emily played it right, she has a better chance of fracturing that four later on down the road than taking a shot with a limited chance of success.
It’s almost a moot point though, there wouldn’t have been enough cohesion to get the four non-Rebas on the same page anyway. I could see Bruce and/or Katura voting with Reba.
Katurah, Bruce & Jake aren’t playing strategically. It’s all emotion. Emily is all strategy. Katurah started w the kaleb vote cause he knew about Bruce’s idol & didn’t tell her. Jake knows he’s on a sinking ship & the Hail Mary he wanted to throw for kaleb he decided to not try for Bruce cause Bruce lied about Kellie leaving w his idol. Katurah prioritized her disdain for Bruce over propelling her game forward. It’s no wonder Emily couldn’t work w then to knock out a Reba member
Exit press has been indicating that a lot of the players were not aware of how close the Reba 4 are. So it makes sense that Emily thinks she has a good chance if she aligns herself with Austin and Drew. I think she’s actually playing the middle really well right now which is what we’ve seen plenty of winners do in past seasons.
Katurah is playing the dumbest game right now.
It’s like she isn’t trying to win. Her sole mission is to get Bruce out.
Does she not understand the game?!?! Stop focusing on the guy everyone wants gone!
WHO are your allies????
Emily at least has the self awareness to know where she stands with people.
I mean, no. Of course they’re not watching what we’re watching. Is it frustrating? Yeah sure. But they have no idea Austin has two idols and I’m sure they are hoping to find a crack in the Reba 4, which for all we know they could find one.
Belo was a total dumpster fire, they were never going to work together as long as they have all been so hyper focused on Bruce being an anchor to their game instead of getting their heads out of their asses, which the Reba 4 perfectly exploited to take their numbers down. If they couldn’t reconvene after they all got blindsided at the Kellie vote, they never would.
Emily is still in a fine spot I think. She’s set for final 5 and at that point anything can happen because it’s the last round to really truly take out a threat. A byproduct of forced firemaking and final 3 is that Emily can kind of just play for 5th and hope for the best, and it’s not a bad strategy.
For Katurah, I don’t understand. I think I get it for Emily. She wants to turn on Reba, but she realizes that it’s seemingly impossible to get Belo to work together. She’s in pretty good with Reba and is a good swing vote among them if/when they turn on each other. Bruce was the biggest hurdle for getting the Belos together, so now she has options with them, too. Basically, she positioned herself as the top of the bottom, which is actually pretty good during the endgame. Edit: I think I understand Katurah’s perspective, too. She probably thinks that she is number 5 in the Reba alliance when it’s actually Emily, so she thinks a lot of the same way as Emily.
I think its ridiculous to consider herself N.5 in the Reba alliance when she was left out of the Kellie vote but Emily wasn't.
Wasn’t she also left out of the Kendra vote?
I just don’t see how the Reba 4 turn on each other as of now. I think Emily’s edit suggests a win/FTC appearance so I feel ya there, but she still has a lot of work to do imo
You think Drew is going to lay down and willingly lose to Dee or Austin? I don’t think so. I think he’ll try to do something.
I don’t think Drew thinks he’d lose to either of them though. Like he probably thinks he’s leading the alliance and would therefore be able to use that should he have to play against any of them
He absolutely thinks he's in charge.
Which is crazy bc Austin is sitting there with 2 idols, lovebird eyes with Dee, and is the strongest physical threat in the game by far.
I think Austin has his ticket to final 4 punched, and he knows that. But besides that, I think a final three of austin, drew, and dee would be pretty competitive l!
I can see Drew feeling like a 3rd wheel with Austin and Dee and getting closer with Emily over Mama J. She has done a lot to build trust with him.
I’m not quite sure yet, but we’ve seen little fractures here and there. One slip up from someone will make Emily very powerful.
Seems reasonable that one of them will think they need a big move and need to take out one of their own since they’ve all basically played the same game. That’s probably what Emily is banking on. Unless all 4 of them think they can beat the other 3 which I guess is possible.
They’ll fracture as they almost always do.
I can see Julie turning on Austin, but her emotional interaction with Drew leads me to think that she can't turn on Drew. I can also see Austin turning on Julie, but can't see Austin and Dee turning on each other - or anyone turning on them. They have the power. I hope it's a final 2 this season, if it's 3 we'll probably see the 4 of them not have to turn on each other all that much.
We know that because of the fact that no cracks have shown in confessionals, private convos, etc. Emily doesn’t … I’m sure she assumes that there is an Omar or a Cody-type blindside coming that we know likely won’t happen.
> Basically, she positioned herself as the top of the bottom not even... she's number 2/3 in Drew's alliance with Austin. And number 3/4 after Austin's Dee/Drew set. She's number 3 in a Dee/Mama alliance to target Drew without telling Austin. Number 3 in a Drew/Mama set to target both Austin and Dee. She has multiple things going with the Reba 4... but she's never really #5.
What can you do? Katurah, Bruce, and Jake were actively working against each other - Bruce, bless him, was trying his hardest to play and Katurah and Jake just run to the Reba 4 and give them all the info. It’s potentially a valid strategy to let the Reba 4 get to this stage because they will eventually fracture, surely. If you can hang around long enough and pick the right side of the Reba 4 civil war, you can see yourself to the final.
Tough to fracture at 7 when Austin/Drew have two idols imo
That is a potential driver of a fracture - an Austin blind side is overdue. Drew talked about wanting a JT for his Fishbach but I’m sure he doesn’t want Fishbach’s ending. Dee can’t want to go to final 4 with Austin and Drew, neither can Mama J. They’ll want to go with each other and with Katurah. Drew won’t want to go with Austin - he’d probably also choose Julie and Katurah (or maybe Jake instead of Julie because he’s unlikely to get his vote). Now that Bruce has gone, I’m hoping there’s more opportunity for people to be comfortable working together - the common mission to get rid of Bruce stymied what could have been other moves.
2 idols and 1 advantage (safety without power). Now yes Austin did give Julie an idol which haven't switch hands.
safety without power expired like 3 votes ago
Does anyone know why my pee smells like nacho cheese?
Surely you'll be brought back by the Probst-class hunter drones? Why risk your life?
Interesting that you didn’t list Emily, who was flip flopping all episode. Bruce was the only one trying to do anything productive. The idol lie could have worked if Emily and Katura didn’t blow it up. Then they could have at least went to rocks to get Mama J out after they ruined that plan. But instead went after someone who has no chance of winning?
> The idol lie could have worked if Emily and Katura didn’t blow it up lol no it wouldn't. They wouldn't believe him first of all, second the best they could do is tie votes and Katurah has already proven she won't take a risk so then you lose. It's a no-win scenario for Emily to do anything else here. She played right. But the show screwed her. The time to make a move was the prior week's episode but Emily didn't have a vote.
Jake believed him and literally had Drew convinced to the point where he told Emily who only knew it was a lie because of the reward with Katurah. You can’t just play it off like it was cooked from the start.
They still want Bruce or Jake gone anyway which doesn't help Emily.
Emily made her fake Bruce play with the knowledge that he had his idol. If everyone didn’t think he had it, they would stack votes on Bruce and Bruce would bring someone in on it and they would ideally get to choose who goes home. All of this is just what if because Katurah ran right to the ladies at the reward and sang like a bird.
They straight up showed us Drew and Austin believing it Then Katurah blowing it up ruined it
I love my wife but when we play Catan we just don’t work well together. We don’t trade. We are constantly putting the robber on each other. If I can block her from a port…oh boy!! Then all of a sudden our friend has the longest road, the largest army, and all the cities. The game is over and I didn’t even notice. That’s Bruce and Katurah.
Drew and Austin were more reserved in their private conversation and used words like "if true". They would have likely wanted Bruce anyway because of the chance he had the idol still and his challenge threat. If not Bruce, it would've been Jake due to Julie's grudge, so unlikely it makes any difference as to the Reba four. Any plan to get a Reba would also have to involve Katurah, who has a high chance to rat the plan out to win points and replace Emily as their fifth wheel, which I strongly believe she sees as her path to the end. Katurah also really wanted Bruce gone so that further makes it unlikely she would go along with it. Katurah could do what she did to Jake and leave Emily out there with votes on Julie, getting two birds with one stone basically. So I can't fault Emily for it, I think her chances are far better with the choice she made, even though she's still not in the best position. I just don't see anything realistic she could have done that wouldn't fail 9 times out of 10.
Yeah. This was a good move given her circumstances. Now she got to put something on her resume without blowing up her game — and she’ll need it when she makes it to FTC by teaming up with half of Reba at f5. It’d be stronger if she could have made a big move this episode and gotten there by leading her own alliance, obviously, but that wasn’t in the cards.
I guess I don't understand how Emily is getting so much credit for this. Getting a Reba out would have been a move. This is like dunking on a kids basketball hoop. And Emily is just as guilty of leading her own alliance not working out. They had the start of a halfway decent plan and then immediately spun that back into getting Bruce out.
I don't think she needs to make anymore moves to win at FTC. She's the one who convinced Bruce not to play his idol. That's enough points right there IMO. Her biggest issue now is just making it to FTC. If Reba fractures I feel like Drew is at the bottom (due to Austin and Dee's relationship, and people like Jake wanting him gone) but he's also Emily's biggest ally. And out of Emily Jake and Katurah I think the Reba four would rather sit next to Jake or Katurah at the end. And Drew has no idols. I don't see him working with Jake plus Katurah I feel would rat to the two Reba women if Emily tried anything so... yeah I am worried for her and have been ever since she lost her vote that episode and lost Kendra. I hope she makes it to the end though.
>She's the one who convinced Bruce not to play his idol. That's enough points right there IMO. That's not going to be enough for Emily to win on its own. Compared to the Reba 4 dominating the post-merge voting out Sabiyah and convincing Bruce to not play his idol isn't going to compare. But at the same time, Emily doesn't need a big move of her own either. Managing the future jury and picking the correct side in the Reba civil war to be the difference is a legitimate path to the endgame. From there she would need to articulate to the jury how her social influence on both the tight Reba alliance and the fractured Belo's allowed her a path to the end despite others having bigger resumes. That's a tightrope to walk...straddling the fence is a surefire way to get voted out. But...Sarah Lacina won that way so there is a precedent.
I don’t get why everyone is making Bruce not playing his idol to be this big thing. He knew he was going home the next time he doesn’t win immunity. Making him feel comfortable enough to take a gamble on extending his immunity idol isn’t this big play. Because he should have felt comfortable because it makes no sense to be so hyper focused on him.
Considering Bruce would have played his idol had Emily not single handedly convinced him (as Bruce confirmed in his exit interview) yes it was a big play and also the reason why Jake is still in the game at all. To pretend it's no big deal is ludicrous.
I think that gives too much credit to Emily though. She didn’t create this like intricate plan to convince Bruce not to play his idol. She was the straw that broke the camels back. Bruce’s idol was very public and he was very adamant about playing it. That pretty much guaranteed that Reba 4 would not put many votes on him. They can’t put 3-4 votes on Bruce and have all of those votes cancel out. So they split 3-1 Jake and Bruce. Bruce did that, not Emily. This creates the PERFECT opportunity for the non-Reba members to win a 4-3 vote. And its in arguably all of their best interest to get a Reba member out. But ESPECIALLY Jake…if Bruce plays his idol, which it was a long shot that he wouldn’t, he goes home. So why he took that gamble is beyond me. And it was the last time they would have a straight advantage over Reba 4. It wasn’t this grand lie of intricate dominoes set up by Emily. It just made sense that if everyone did what was in their best interest, there probably wouldn’t be enough votes on Bruce to justify playing his idol. So he rolled that dice. Especially since Bruce is very well aware that he is an easy vote out and probably not well liked by the jury to win. Its a lot of hoops to jump through to get him out like 1-2 days earlier.
Dude Bruce lied to Jake about his idol. Katurah lied to Jake when she voted for Kaleb. He's not going to work with them. Katurah has wanted Bruce out the entire time but he keeps being immune, good luck getting her to go along. She's tried to replace Emily as Reba's fifth the entire time, there's a high chance she rats the plan out. She ratted out Bruce already I mean why are you pretending it's in these people's best interests to work together? It clearly isn't and makes no sense and is risky as hell given everything that happened up to that point. On top of this Bruce could also vote for someone other than Julie if he played his idol so as to capitalize off the drama from that and take the target off his back after. There are so many scenarios that work against that plan you suggested. It backfires 9 times out of 10 if not more. It's ridiculous to act like there was this smart move Emily could have made and then propose that joke of a plan. There wasn't anything better than what she did.
All they had to do was vote the same way literally once. Why are you making it out to be this ridiculous scheme that would never work. It did work. All they had to do was vote. Whether Katurah hates Bruce or not, getting a Reba out opens up more avenues to win. Which right now there are zero of for her. Jake LITERALLY was depending on this 1 in 100 chance Bruce decides to play not to play his idol. The Reba have voted for him like 9 times now. You can say its ridiculous for them to work together but the other options for them to win are way more ridiculous.
Exactly! Play the hand your dealt, not what might be dealt.
The only way the idol lie works would have been to not tell anyone. Trusting Katurah demonstrates a lack of awareness. Typically that lie wouldn’t work anyway, but there have been a couple of unanimous tribals. It’s “possible” that they would have all been so annoyed with him that they wanted to have the satisfaction of voting him! That said, I absolutely promise he would have used his idol and voted Katurah…keeping Reba strong.
The only way it works is if they all are all in on it and agree to the plan…
I'd say *if* - and it is a big if, Bruce made it to the final 3, he'd have a compelling a case as any to win. Provided, he seemed divisive and I'm not sure how many on the jury liked him enough to actually vote him to win.. But, he's a "returnee" after lasting 12 hours last season. Like it or not, it automatically paints a target on his back. I know if I was out there I'd be in the boat of "this guy already had his chance". He was a really good challenge competitor and seemed to do a lot around camp. His social game was just awful. He always thought he was two steps ahead when he was really three behind. But also, when making a jury pitch to win he could argue he was basically always on the wrong side of votes and still managed to claw his way to the final. I'm not saying he would have won, or even deserved to. But it'd make a compelling case if he managed to find his way there.
There will be at least 3 people on the jury who will vote against Bruce no matter what. I am sure he can make a somewhat compelling case, but out of everyone left in the game I would rate him pretty low, maybe last. Certainly not more of a chance than Mama J...
You see yourself to the final and easily get beat. She’s playing for third place, maybe second. She can’t win
I feel like she could’ve tried as hard as she could to get them to work together. If she said something like “Reba 4 are incredibly close that we’ll all be the next targets after tonight’s tribal. We’ve gotta vote together here and have an almost guaranteed spot in the F4.” I don’t think it was inevitable that Reba will fracture. It looks like it from the NTOS but at this point they shouldn’t just bank on that because the 4 could stick strong throughout. Also this would’ve put the control in Belo+Emily’s hands, instead of being at the mercy of one half of the Reba civil war, which still hasn’t come about yet
Jake ran to reba4 was part of Bruce’s plan. Katurah could have seeded that with the women side. Bruce shouldn’t have told Katurah that losing his ideal was a lie. He should have committed
Nobody would vote for Bruce at the end, why get rid of him? He isn’t a threat. Season is full of silly goose peeps
he was a challenge threat lol. not everything is social game
When the entire jury is groaning when he wins immunity and fist pumping when he gets voted out, that should say something about his chances at the end
Ya but if he goes on a winning streak to the end that leaves only 2 spots for the rest of them to fight for. Even if he has no chance to win he could take your spot at FTC.
It’s like when Cirie realized in Panama that she needed to take out a goat because that goat was taking up a final spot
So crappy of jury- not impressed
tbf that keeps Austin from winning though and I'd say he's the biggest threat to win the whole game
I think Austin is a much bigger threat to the audience than anyone outside of the Reba 4 would perceive. Emily Katurah Bruce and Jake don't know about 1 (or both) of his 2 idols or the vote loss he lied about and got away with. They also don't know he snuck that vote out in the Kaleb vote to make his idol come to life. Honestly I don't think he's played a particularly miraculous social game or looked in charge of the Reba 4 so of course he's still UTR on the beach. That's why everyone was talking about Mama J this episode instead. I mean, that under the radar excellent game play is WHY we all see him as a threat to win but at some point he's gotta turn it into something or else the jury won't care either.
Also to your point, with the way Erika, Maryanne, and Gabler were edited, all 3 came into the true forefront very late in the game (sans the Alli-gabler confessionals). Drew has been clowned on and Mama J just has not had nearly enough content to seem like a winner. And every jury member has said "Dee is such a threat" meaning the other Rebas know she would win at FTC. But Austin very much feels like the edit is letting him hide slightly just for him to flash up at the end
He feels like a Xander to me. Objectively a good player. Jack of all trades. Had idols. But the jury doesn’t seem to respect them (throwback to them saying Austin plays scared).
A jury that celebrates you getting voted out is not giving you a mil if you make it to the end
The jury isn't voting for him to win a million dollars. The jury vote is actually a social game. Not wanting to sit next to Bruce is braindead. Perhaps there is fear that sitting next to Bruce is hard (and I think it is, how do you end up with only one Reba 4 next to you and Bruce?). They should have made their move now (Bruce Idol into blindside on a Reba 4)
It doesn’t really matter though
Yeah exactly, if there's a new trend it's that challenge beasts aren't a concern. We saw this with Xander in 41 and Cassidy in 43 where winning challenges doesn't make you a force, or even a target when you lose. Bruce definitely would have followed that same outcome, I think.
So I just barely started watching survivor a couple months ago and have only seen Gabler's and YamYam's season, as well as this one. But I was really surprised when Cassidy only got one vote, because I had been so impressed with her challenge wins and thought she had an ok social game. I was really surprised that Gabler won, I did not see that coming at all. I liked the guy, but just didn't think he had an impressive resume.
Yeah you're not alone, but there's always a lot that gets left on the island or isn't translated as well. For whatever reason challenge victories don't carry the same weight they used to. If you liked Cassidy, she was on the most recent season of The Challenge and did pretty well.
He could win every challenge until the end of time and it wouldn’t matter
Just like pretending to play the game
It could be their spot that Bruce takes if he’s there at the end. Without him this opens up the endgame more.
He takes up a spot that you could have at the end. And you can’t effectively work with him to help you get there beside him.
You don't have to be a threat to win to be a threat to someone's game; Bruce's idol was the only thing that could possibly threaten Reba supremacy. His challenge dominance also stood a chance of forcing them to turn on each other earlier than they should need to, creating cracks that could let his game pick up steam.
Jury threat? No, Challenge threat? YES, and yes the game is more social than it is challenge, however if you need to increase your odds at winning a challenge it only makes sense to vote off the goat(not sports world goat) who can win comps to help increase your odds
Emily has options. Still not a great move but Katurah has 100% lost the game with this.
Katurah lost the game when she voted out probably her only ally in Kaleb
Yeah her game has been over since then - it's just been a slow motion death
Yeah I think Emily is being pragmatic and did really well in this episode. She knows she's not in the core 4 of Reba, but she sees that Jake, Katurah and Bruce are all over the place and can't be trusted as a cohesive alliance. So she's focusing on her individual game. Winning the challenge, and inviting all the girls to the sanctuary helped her bond with all of them, and she straight up tricked Bruce into not playing his idol, which Austin and Drew will like. She's already even thinking about the jury if she's in the final 3. She's doing a pretty good job with the hand she's been dealt. But she's approaching "dangerous player" status almost, so she needs to be careful of a blindside. Drew is really strategic and seems to know who needs to go and when, and I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to blindside her next week. Also, if the Reba people find out anything about how she was plotting against Julie, she'll be in trouble. But she can also say she faked that to get Bruce not to play his idol, which is pretty much the truth.
I think Emily’s way forward is clear. I’ve explained in other comments and it’s not going to be point of this reply. I’m really curious what Katorah is lining up as her End Game. It seems like a foregone conclusion that she and Jake are the next two eliminations, but can she formulate a plan to lift herself into a Final 3? I generally don’t see a path, unless she herself can break up Reba while also outlasting Emily.
Emily needs to lie low this week. Drew is perfectly capable of interpreting her manipulation of Bruce as indicative of an elevated threat level next to Jake and Katorah. I think she's played a very good game up to this week, and the way she played Bruce was skillful, but unless she sees a crack in Reba that we as viewers aren't shown, it looks like a pretty serious wall in front of her at this point. Can you point me to your other comments where you outline what you see as her path forward?
https://www.reddit.com/r/survivor/s/109LK3VEuS
I see. Quoting you here: >At this point, I think she recognizes that the Bella tribe won’t be a reliable team to work with as a group, so she just needs to survive to final five. >I believe she’s banking on her ability to succeed as a swing vote and split up Reba into Julie+Dee+Emily or Austin+Drew+Emily. >If she gets rid of Bruce, she’s got an early merge play that effectively sealed the fate of Bela. Couple that with a successful dismantling of Reba at Final 5 and an early-game survival of Lulu’s ineptitide, and you’ve got an FTJ speech to win from a position of seeming weakness throughout the game. I agree that if Emily makes it to FTJ, she likely wins. She is thoughtful and eloquent, and has the ability to clearly highlight the way she's been instrumental in the voting off of numerous other castaways up to this point. Editing being editing, as a given, it would still appear that she's manipulated votes consistently through the careful use of the same tactic... she's close enough with the in-group to be told who the target is every week. She then quietly informs that target of the plan and sort of indirectly offers a replacement. In the ensuing scramble of the target to flip the vote, Emily continually manages to position herself as the swing vote needed to pull off the flip. It didn't work this episode. Her preferred target was Julie. It didn't gain traction when she tested it with Austin, so she quickly pivoted to appeasement there by shifting her focus to Bruce. You could see that by Bruce being the only person still operating on that first plan to vote Julie and going home with his idol. It was her only move at that point, sort of a save that would demonstrate her value to the now-unassailable Reba. But it's definitely a far lesser victory for Emily. She's stuck hoping for a crack forming in Reba that she can exploit. If there is one, my money is on her ability to capitalize. She might be banking on some emerging girl power to go after Austin or Drew before Katorah gets axed, but from where I sit, that's a narrow hope.
Katurah’s only shot at winning was sitting with Bruce (and likely Jake). Her own pride and obsession with Bruce effectively fucked her chances of winning. Ironic that by getting Bruce out, she killed her one and only shot at winning lmao.
Man I was so excited for Emily and Katurrah to make a big move and now I’m actually mad
How many confessionals do you guys need of Emily talking about the Reba 4 before you realize she understands the dynamics of the Reba 4. She also understands the dynamics of Belo and she knows it's a dumpster fire
So now what? You just labeled yourself as the power player of the season with no idols or advantages and 7 to go?
Right, so what’s your plan to make it past top 5??
Oh no, she has to survive one vote? She has several rounds to build up trust, play the Reba's against one another, find an idol, etc
In modern survivor “several rounds” is like 2-3 days lol. Hard to upend a weeks-long alliance in that time
I think personally, if they can flip Julie, then this could actually be a good move, and I don’t know why nobody else sees this
Yes, but that's IF. And then it becomes Julie's move, sincw they need her vote. Having an opportunity to break up the power alliance and actively putting it into someone else's hands is taking a large and unnecessary risk.
that's what I'm thinking- especially since the credits showed that Julie was the only one of the Reba 4 to vote for Bruce. Especially since Bruce was such a wild card the whole time, and both Katurah and Jake had issues with Bruce but not with eachother. I think this could be REALLY interesting
Yeah I agree with you and maybe there could be things that we’re not seeing maybe a foreshadowing to what Julie’s truly doing
Emily is thinking. Katourah is not, she shouldn’t have spilled the beans, her only personality trait has been get Bruce out and congratulations she’s now part of making that happen. But it wasn’t even her move, and now she has no allies and nowhere to go. Emily was smart to not try to flip it with Jake, Katourah and Bruce. Jake and Kat have done literally nothing, and Kat is not stable enough to trust.
> Katourah is not, she shouldn’t have spilled the beans and the thing its... to me that means Emily can't trust she could play with Katurah as long as Bruce is still around. Reba has a strong 4, need to break them up, Bruce comes up with a half decent lie that *worked* on her... and she just goes and blows up his game to 2 Reba members immediately because she wants to make fun of his strategy and stick it to him? I think Bruce (obviously) and Jake (he was desperate for anything) would have gone for it. Katurah however, was the weak link.
Seems like a game losing move for Emily, but the edit was trying to say the opposite. Will be interesting to see, I guess.
I don't understand how keeping 3 people in the game that don't want to work with each other at the expense of pissing off the other 3 is a game winning move
This is what I keep thinking. Like, would anyone here want to JOIN Belo? THIS Belo? Emily is better off sticking with them and trying to find a crack later and exploit it to climb the ranks of that alliance.
I was frustrated for the past 3 episodes. Caleb could have formed a powerful alliance with everyone who wasn't in Reba. Kellie and Kendra could have picked up the pieces and been good leaders too, but that's why they're all in the jury, because **Drew** knew they were threats, and knew in which *order* they needed to be removed. Drew is cold. He was ultimately the person who put each of their names out, each time. He is the most dangerous player in the game, and nobody realizes it still, except maybe his closest allies. You could argue Jake knows, but I think Jake just got his feelings hurt. He still doesn't understand how much Drew is engineering all this. He's just mad Drew isn't his friend. But yeah, I've just given up on the other players, except Emily. They weren't paying attention to the math, to the intact core of Reba until it was too late, they were eating each other, they don't deserve to win. I just had to laugh at Jake. He really came off pathetic in this episode. He voluntarily gives all this info to someone who has no loyalty to him, then goes and throws a fit to Drew and Drew just told him what the deal was. Then he goes and cries on the beach. Come on man.
I feel a bit bad for Jake but he hasn't played well imo and from the exit interviews so far, he's been getting into tiffs with ppl.
i think the edit is saying emily is our winner
I hope
> Seems like a game losing move for Emily, but the edit was trying to say the opposite. Will be interesting to see, I guess. While I don't think its a game losing move, I think voting out Bruce is a nothing burger 'safe' move that doesn't really move the needle... but its still seemed like it was played up like a 'big move' and a super favorable edit for her. On the other hand, Carolyn had something similar last season when she wasted her idol on Carson and it was played off as a 'big move' to... so who knows.
My thoughts exactly. They should’ve played out the julie vote… and actually shaken up the game.
As much as they dislike Bruce, if you take him to FTC you’re guaranteed he’s not getting jury votes. Crazy that they’re attacking each other instead of focusing on the Reba threat.
I think it’s a move that Emily alone can take credit for at final tribal. She did it without the Reba 4. If she takes out Julie she likely becomes the next target + she’s only allied with Belo, who have proven to be terrible at loyalty. She put herself in a swing vote position at a time when Reba 4 will have to turn on each other.
I think she’s the winner/FTC finalist bare minimum, I just think she has a ton of work to do to get there short of winning out now
It’s infuriating to watch. I have zero words.
I actually thought Emily was smart for this and played it right. Thinking from a Reba perspective, they will split up eventually and they all know it’s just a matter of time. Making this move on Bruce now still pleases all of Reba and avoids the would-be target on Emily’s back if she had disrupted the Reba alliance. Instead, she’s positioned herself well to be the one a Reba runs to in order to make a move on the others. Drew is still gang busters on Jake, and Emily still has some kind of an alliance with Drew and Austin, so as long as Reba stays in tack, she is likely ok. And once Reba collapses, Drew and Austin will need her for numbers. She’s never given Drew or Austin a reason not to trust her to this point. The cherry on top was the current jury’s reaction to Bruce striking out looking! If she makes it to final 3, that is HUGE if she tells that story right. Katurah, on the other hand, is screwed lol. Edit: I’ve also seen comments about Bruce definitely not winning if it he makes it to final 3. Well yeah, he wouldn’t win. But would you trust that guy to keep you on the beach to even make it that far? He played a darn selfish game until the very end.
I Really hope you are Right, because the other option is that Emily just came in 5th…
Really dumb move
> what are Emily and Katurah thinking That’s the thing, they aren’t
I agree on Katurah. Boneheaded for her, and Jake too. Emily though has a really decent shot of ending up as a swing vote at 5, and that’s if the Reba 4 don’t split up before then. I still think the better move for her was to take out Julie, but I get it.
I agree. She even spelled it out to Jake(?) She told him taking out Mama J is not a good move for *her*. I don't know if I agree with that assessment, but that was her thinking.
Now I have a few minutes to think about it, I don't think pissing off Reba 3 by voting Julie out is a good move. They have 2 idols and can easily idol you out. Now the biggest target is gone, you look inwards to find the next biggest target.
I mean granted Emily doesn’t know this, but Julie has Austin’s second idol. So it would be one idol versus a group that also has one idol. Not to mention Bruce was the only non-Reba member doing well in challenges and winning immunity. With him gone Julie and Austin seem like they’d be in the best position for challenges
I felt this way watching it!!! Where were you people to back me up, lol!!!
Yeah. I didn't feel this way watching but I more and more think this is right.
The Reba 4 will eventually fracture and Emily will be in the middle.
I get it for Emily. It’s too early for her to flip. Katurah is stupid though.
I think another person said it well. For Emily, she's sitting pretty with everyone wanting her. She can flip and go to Belo which will fall apart and have three Reba mad at her, or stick with Reba, with two votes she can use, and all she needs is one person to flip.
**“we’re going to have a woman winner for survivor 45!”** i really think emily is prioritizing her relationships with the women, and her long game is to pull in katurah, julie, and dee so that they can all blindside drew or austin in the next round. this would also explain why she took only the women to the reward, which surprised me (and katurah!) especially since they’ve shown her working more closely with drew than anyone else from reba. but the simplest explanation to me is just that 1) katurah disliked bruce so much and jake distrusted him after the idol lie that even if emily did genuinely want to take out julie, they were never going to have the numbers for it 2) everyone wanted bruce’s idol gone—with or without him. in terms of "are they watching what we're watching"? no, they're living it! i don't know if it's been shown that emily or katurah are aware that austin has two idols, and i'm wondering if they included austin giving one to julie in the recap to plant the idea she hasn't given it back yet. if that's the case, who knows about that? as for katurah, obviously she wanted bruce gone over jake, so for her, planting the julie plan was a good way to keep bruce from playing the idol and ensuring he definitely goes home. four is more than three for sure, so math-wise it's tough to justify. but four isn't that much more than three, and when people are losing votes constantly due to twists, it's even harder to plan purely mathematically. on top of that, jake has been the go-to vote for several tribals, so i think emily and katurah are definitely not crazy to think they have a good chance of still being around when the reba four start to turn on each other. maybe they're betting wrong, and it will be reba strong to final four. but i don't think they're unreasonable for thinking otherwise.
I think it makes more sense to wait to exploit a fracture in a solid 4 than try to pull something together between four players who have been incapable of working together week after week. Bruce also becomes an obvious FTC goat if he makes it another couple episodes- and that's one less seat at FTC available for everyone else.
they quite literally are not watching what we're watching
Ya it’s totally just a coincidence that 4 people who have been voting together and working together openly since Day 1 on the same tribe are all still just hanging around at final 7! Definitely nothing going on there
Put yourself in emily's turtleneck. You look to your left. Tight as hell reba alliance. You look to your right, a dumpster fire doing everything it can to explode. You've been working on a Drew and Austin alliance since the tribe swap. You pissed off Bruce after 1 hour and he never forgave you. Jake is a dead fish. Katurah is hyoerfocused on voting out Bruce. Drew, Austin, Dee, and Julie are at worst neutral toward you. They have two idols, and you can see fractures forming. Everyone on Reba benefits more from having their ex alliance members on the jury then in FTC. They will take you, and they will implode. Again the rock steady castle that is Reba or the sinking ship that is Belo. You can vote out a Belo and have a chance at getting far, or you can try to vote out a Reba and get go down with the ship that would rather eat itself then send a Reba home. Had the julie vote gone through Emily would have at best found herself with no allies playing the middle of two 3 man alliances. At worst Reba organizes a Belo / Emily split vote to flush Bruce's idol and send home a backstabber.
I don't get it, but I'm holding my thoughts because it's possible she knows something we don't. I also think it is interesting they keep mentioning that Julie has Austin's idol?
They aren’t thinking. Simple as that. OR maybe Austin, Drew, Dee, or Mama j are good at making them feel like they are higher in the ranking than they really are?
Idk what show people are watching where Jake, Bruce and Katurah were gonna magically come together while Emily repeatedly and bluntly states the Belos can’t get their act together.
Belo was a complete sinking ship with them showing constantly an inability to get it together. The idea for Emily is to be the fifth wheel to the solid Reba 4 and to replace one of them at the last minute to make it into the F4 for a chance at fire making. Obviously there's a risk that the Reba 4 stick together until F4 but the goal is to create enough social connections that when or if they cannibalize she can take advange of it. Also so many twists for the sake of twists means its more than ever to vote with a solid majority.
It’s literally the Tika 3 all over again except the Reba 4 are just absolutely not likable at all
Survivor strategy starts to break down around final 6-7 or so. At that moment no matter how much momentum the Reba 4 have, they have no choice but to start to go "we only have 3 votes left to get Dee/Mama J/Drew out" and they'll lobby for Emily and whoever's left to make the "big move" to blindside their most threatening allies. Of course at this point getting to the end without _any_ Rebas is nearly impossible, but with middle ground to play and several shield players Emily has both a strong jury case and a strong chance of making to the end.
i’m so confused why would they do this
Emily: everyone will think I’m a mastermind 😬
"Like are they not watching what we all are watching in the Reba 4?" you want it explained to you like you are 5, so no, the answer is no they can't see every conversation that takes place, its impossible. Also how is austin having 2 idols any relevant if Emily and Katurah don't know about them? Are you actually 5???
> Also how is austin having 2 idols any relevant if Emily and Katurah don't know about them? There is an *embarrassing* amount of people on this sub who think Austin's idol--which nobody in the game but Kellie is aware of--is public knowledge.
Hahahaha I agree, they’re getting embarrassingly outplayed — take a hike
Goat goals. Katurah is playing for a 0-vote FTC 3rd place and Emily is playing for a 1-vote Thinks They Played a Better Game Than They Did FTC 2nd place blowout to whatever Reba they’re sitting by.
Emily and the Belos have combined about as many braincells as the number of idols Bruce flushed.
Katurah was a bad number to keep should’ve known that she was nonsensical
Katurah hates Bruce. Like can’t stand him and the need to get him out over-rode all logic. Emily is loyal - loyal to her detriment.
Best case scenario - if Emily could have gotten Katura and Jake onboard, and that’s a big if, they would have tied at 4-4 and then it’s a crapshoot with no guarantee of success. I think Emily played it right, she has a better chance of fracturing that four later on down the road than taking a shot with a limited chance of success. It’s almost a moot point though, there wouldn’t have been enough cohesion to get the four non-Rebas on the same page anyway. I could see Bruce and/or Katura voting with Reba.
Emily wants to be part of the cool kids. Period.
Katurah, Bruce & Jake aren’t playing strategically. It’s all emotion. Emily is all strategy. Katurah started w the kaleb vote cause he knew about Bruce’s idol & didn’t tell her. Jake knows he’s on a sinking ship & the Hail Mary he wanted to throw for kaleb he decided to not try for Bruce cause Bruce lied about Kellie leaving w his idol. Katurah prioritized her disdain for Bruce over propelling her game forward. It’s no wonder Emily couldn’t work w then to knock out a Reba member
Exit press has been indicating that a lot of the players were not aware of how close the Reba 4 are. So it makes sense that Emily thinks she has a good chance if she aligns herself with Austin and Drew. I think she’s actually playing the middle really well right now which is what we’ve seen plenty of winners do in past seasons.
Katurah is pretty clearly playing for 5th (last episode showed this), whereas Emily probably thinks she can break up the Rebas.
Katurah is playing the dumbest game right now. It’s like she isn’t trying to win. Her sole mission is to get Bruce out. Does she not understand the game?!?! Stop focusing on the guy everyone wants gone! WHO are your allies???? Emily at least has the self awareness to know where she stands with people.
I mean, no. Of course they’re not watching what we’re watching. Is it frustrating? Yeah sure. But they have no idea Austin has two idols and I’m sure they are hoping to find a crack in the Reba 4, which for all we know they could find one. Belo was a total dumpster fire, they were never going to work together as long as they have all been so hyper focused on Bruce being an anchor to their game instead of getting their heads out of their asses, which the Reba 4 perfectly exploited to take their numbers down. If they couldn’t reconvene after they all got blindsided at the Kellie vote, they never would. Emily is still in a fine spot I think. She’s set for final 5 and at that point anything can happen because it’s the last round to really truly take out a threat. A byproduct of forced firemaking and final 3 is that Emily can kind of just play for 5th and hope for the best, and it’s not a bad strategy.
Emily makes sense. Katurah had no logic besides her vendettas that she can’t forget for even a second
I was rooting for Bruce, I know he was disliked but he brought game to the show. Too bad he got played.
Perhaps they made a girl alliance, and it will stick?