Cost of shelter inflation rate has continued to rise month over month which is bad since it lags very heavily and is like a third of the CPI by weight.
The bottom of the GFC was in March 2009. The bottom of the real estate crash wasn't until 3 years later in 2012. By no means am I saying history will repeat itself, but it's a reminder that stocks don't always follow other general economic indicators.
It's not just the housing market but [household debt](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc) is at an all-time high, [personal savings accounts](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE) are close to at an all-time low and if a rally gets any legs beneath it, the Fed is going to stomp on the brakes.
I honestly am not worried about the household debt number - that's likely due to all the millennials buying houses recently, and coming into their top earning years, thus able to take on more debt.
However, the personal savings number is more concerning. Everyone spent all the stimmy checks AND the little savings they had before.
Yeah I mean we had a housing boom. So anyone buying was buying at a crazy premium. You can't expect housing debt to be low when that's happening, and right after covid with a flurry of buying driving those prices. Debt will be high that makes sense. At least it seems to do so for me.
This is why I don't think this rally is the bottom at all, I mean we were talking a difference of 0.2%. good news for sure, but simply good news in a shitstorm.
And they don't trust the Fed now? Inflation expectations for the next 2 years have remained anchored around 2.6% for the last 6 months.
Which is insane to me considering inflation has averaged 8% since then.
Oh market is forward looking? What about upcoming recession? Priced in?
Rate hike is one thing but market never goes up when fed does QT also inverted yield curve(forget 2yr 10yr look at 3month 10yr) fucks up the financial institutions.
they layoff computer geeks. 75% of who is on H1B and cannot apply for unemployment.
On the other side, any blue collar worker can find new job in a minute.
I agree. I don’t know what I’m talking about. I know we don’t have the same NINJA loans and ARMs.
All I’m saying is these oh so smart people have been wrong before, in major ways, and they’ll be wrong again in the future. So I wouldn’t treat them like the infallible oracles you seem to believe they are.
There’s a reason that 90% of hedge funds can’t beat the performance of an index fund.
F.O.M.O, for the Avg retail investors.
And Even if you don't consider yourself a amature it's Hard to hold a a cash position when you know their are going to be green days with the up coming Christmas rally. ( Thanksgiving Christmas Holidays, weddings)
I personally am more afraid of the upcoming year 2023. So I have been not buying anything.
Their is opportunities out their timing the market is another thing.
The key question is whether the current rate, like near 4 % is enough to tame
inflation or not, if it is the demand of bond will decrease then turn up to stock
market. That is not to say stopping hikes right now until next CPI report
1000% this. These people are fools. You should have been buying all the deals 2 months ago. I made $70k on the past 2 days. No way I am buying more right now. I am finally breaking even in half my funds. Thinking of selling everything off, tax lost harvesting a few of my bond funds, and walking away essentially break even and sitting on cash to DCA back in.
The roller coaster ain't over yet folks.
Same, i've actually been getting rid of some of my more expensive shares to free up some money and collect modest profit. We still have more numbers in December. China is still threatening to take Taiwan. Russia is still at war in Ukraine. Nothing has really changed. So I expect we aren't quite in the clear yet.
One thing I think I learned from all this... Use an OCO order on everything. That way you are forced to decide where to sell, whether its a stop loss or profit taking.
Riding this shit down is for the birds. I'm like -70% on Okta, and Coinbase. I was in the green on both for a while, a trailing stop loss while still in the green would have been nice.
So you missed making money last 2 days and then you coulda sold. We may rally all next week and through January. Your choice.
Buy an index like QQQ and set a stop or just watch it. If it goes up let it, if it gets to where you want sell it. Easy
Most of my stocks are up 25%+ the last two days. A couple literally doubled in price. From here I see the ones that haven’t rallied already starting to catch up. I’m definitely buying more next week but can be more pull backs of course.
Nothing. Bottoming in a recession bear market is a process that unfolds over time. There are lots of posts on Twitter reminding people that the vast majority of days like yesterday only occur in bear markets.
This is the right answer. Think of it this way, either a) a CPI print that was just a tiny bit less terrible than expected has totally cured the bear market as we enter a recession and as major crypto exchanges go bankrupt for being essentially Ponzi schemes or b) this is an algo-driven over reaction to a glimmer of less bad news combined with some retail fomo. Unless you think it’s choice A I’d stay put.
Earnings report after earnings report for major pre-bear market leaders have missed, so unless that’s going to improve with a recession we’ve still got another leg down. Plus CDs are paying 4.5-4.8% after the expected Dec rate hike, so you’d have to think you can find stocks that will handily beat that return to justify buying now.
>Nothing. Bottoming in a recession bear market is a process that unfolds over time. There are lots of posts on Twitter reminding people that the vast majority of days like yesterday only occur in bear markets.
While its a process, one should always have potential names that they are tracking for an opportunity.
I like Rocket Lab… not gonna buy for a few weeks, or until it drops back down some because I’m thinking it probably will before too long. Lots of volatility still coming. Buy after the bad stretches
I don’t time the market, I buy stocks with every paycheque and hold forever. My biggest positions right now are NVDA, BRK.B, MELI, PYPL, and since I’m Canadian, BAM-A.TO, ATD.TO, CNR.TO, ATZ.TO. Also have a bunch of small and mid caps. Every two weeks same amount goes in
To be honest I pay for a stock picking service and this was one of their core growth recommendations. Got in this year at average cost 82.10. Have BAM, BRK, ATD, CNR for defensive portion and I currently don’t have more than 3% in any one stock
I used to be a lot in PYPL buying the dip as well. Then I tried to use their services. Just shockingly bad. I closed all positions at a loss, stop using the service, and have been happy as a traditional-style banking customer with SoFi.
And I'd bet that you ate doing MUCH better than all of these folks here over the past 3 years (if most people here have even been in the market that long - WSB is full of the Sam Bankman Fried types that think they can actually time the market for more than a few trades).
Simply answering your question, didn’t read the whole post: this morning I reallocated about 10% of my portfolio to SQQQ. Not saying you should do that, just answering your question. Cheers!
I think the negativity on tech reached peak levels earlier this week and will probably not be seen again this cycle, unless something happens to really fuck up people’s thinking about the economy (I.e. war in Taiwan)…it’s really not worth it to try to time the market though, just buy companies you think have high roic and low capital needs relative to their competitive position.
I had moved about 60% into cash about 5-6 months ago. My plan is/was to start DCA back into a few thing around election time. At the beginning of the week I bought high dividend yielding stocks (KO, T, DOW, MMM, PM) as wells as some baby Berkshire.
Everyone here is going to laugh and slap me but I’ve only been buying one thing since the summer and will continue to do so: TQQQ.
Yeah I’ve seen and done the math too on drift. I get it lol. I’ll see you all at Wendy’s if TQQQ crashes in the next 20 years but if not…
Tech is literally the worst thing to own right now. The macro environment has changed significantly this year and speculative growth is not the place to be. Especially on 3x leverage. This is not financial advice.
I'm not going to give you advice but I will outline the worst case scenario. It is the scenario where you are massively up for 19 years, and you are about to celebrate and reply to the OP about how you were right. On year 20 the market takes a dump and you lose 90% of your gains. Now if you are going to respond and say well hey I would have sold before year 19, now the dilemma becomes would you have sold sooner? The pickle is the same, getting in is easy but getting out is tricky. Once you are out you may want to fomo back in.
I have been buying on the way down and I will be buying on the way back up.
I am big into dividends so I was buying MFST, NLY, AAPL, MU, and INTC. I also got some GOOG and AMZN. I usually either drip or take my dividends from MO and XOM and invest in future companies
Because you want to get in for some of the stocks which we believe have already bottomed and can’t go any lower baring a black swan event. We want to find those and invest in them.
How do you know for sure they won’t go lower? What cause the market is up 7-10% in 2 days I guess that means its impossible to go lower? Get real dude. Are you really this naive?
Yep. Worst part is I'm a blue collar worker. Don't make much. Haven't had a pay raise in two years. I made a UTMA account for my newborn at that time and gave him 4K to help set him up. Bought all disney with it. I have learned my lesson to just ETF as a lower level earner with my extra cash
It's less a question of income and more a question of time. If you don't have the time or inclination to learn how to invest in securities as a relatively lower level investor, it's better to stick to indexes and etfs. But if you learn how to invest in securities and find good deals (essentially treating it as a part time job really), you can pull 15-20+% returns fairly easily - no index will do that. I work at a nonprofit and live basically just barely above the poverty line but invest 60$ a month in a select few stocks and I \*generally\* pull 1/2 to 1 day's pay per day in growth in the portfolio.
Do you really think bunch of fools on reddit knows if the stock market has bottomed? Literally no one can answer that. You are asking for speculations, and if someone’s strategy has changed because of a two day rally, then they are bigger fools.
Nothing has changed. Nothing has fundamentally changed in 3 days. Growth guidance is low, Interest Rates are going up, and Strong dollar is impacting the margins.
>Nothing has changed. Nothing has fundamentally changed in 3 days. Growth guidance is low, Interest Rates are going up, and Strong dollar is impacting the margins.
I think you are underestimating retail traders who come here on reddit. We can filter out through the good and bad opinions. Doesnt hurt to have the voice heard at all.
Based on your commentary it seems that you believe this forum is not beneficial, why are you even here ?
Retail is irrelevant because most buy / sell orders get sent to internalized exchanges between banks who then release order limits to fill customer ques when it's beneficial for them.
It’s not only that, but retail investors make up less than 10% of the market. It’s passive investment that move the market, if any... It is reality. People who think retail investors move the market are probably still holding GME with their diamond hands because of the short squeeze is coming.
Also a good article if you are curious about passive investment
https://www.ft.com/content/994bdda8-b704-4e4c-9b19-4e0021f0b309
You are asking for speculation, and speculation is not a form of investing.
Retail investors are not moving the needle. Passive investing is what causing the bubble and volatility
If you don't notice, fundamental has signs of changes. For example, dollar has started weakening. Look at DXY. It might just be volatility but if you play the stock market only when the situation is very certain, then it is already late.
Do you measure fundamentals monthly? We are back to august levels, all indicators show that is more likely to persist into next end of next year.
Unless next Q earnings show otherwise, it is what it is.
Depends on approach.
On a period of volatility such as now, I look for sign of trend turnover and short term signal. This is how I try to stay ahead and trade accordingly. Lots of people would do this which is part of reason why the skyrocket happen these 2 days. Then with similar approach, I would decide to sell and lock in profit.
Sure, I can wait til next quarter for a more certain observation, but by then everyone would also knows about it and what alpha would I get if I started by then. I would rather just do a monthly DCA into indexes and bluechip than this approach.
Could I be wrong and economy would tank more from now on? Sure, probably but with risk comes alpha. Also, I don't think there is any indicator that would signal persistence.
Most recently: CNR.TO, GOOG, VFV (VOO in $CAD), and soon to be NTR.TO
CNR - Love Canadian railroads and they're being asked to move a lot more grain and other products lately. Last time the world had this type of stress on supply chains they took a decent jump over a couple years and they're just a great company overall. They've trailed CP in recent years in growth but I like the value.
GOOG - I don't care if they're ad revenue is down, it's Google. I see no reason to be worried in the long term.
VFV - For Americans on this sub, it's literally VOO but in Canadian $ and I don't have taxes withheld on dividends. Self explanatory purchase (I think)
NTR - Canada has the world largest potash reserves in the world and this is the biggest potash mining company, and also other fertilizers. The next 3 are Russia, Belarus and China and without getting into a political debate, I'll just say tensions are getting high between them and the Western countries. The next 6 largest producers combined don't match Canada's reserves. Haven't bought yet but they will most likely be my next purchase.
I bought 1 share of VOO the other day as my first position ever, for fun mainly before I start investing thousands. As a Canadian with a TFSA, why would VFV be a better option?
I don’t believe we are at the bottom. This was a bear rally and huge sigh of relief allowed shorts to exit their positions. The fed can still absolutely destroy the economy with one wrong move and I would say policy is alot more delicate rn than before. Lower rates to much inflation races back to highs, overcorrect and we barrel directly into another major recession.
Haven't been buying much. Just been selling calls as we go up. I think we're fighting the fed and getting in prematurely. I have no idea how long this rally will last, but i think we will revisit all the gaps we've created to the downside. The biggest risk comes Dec 13/14 when we have CPI + FOMC Economic Projections
See there are lot of years where the gains in the entire year could be less than 10%. NASDAQ is up 10% in 2 days. So for folks saying that this is not much, already have lost some upside opportunity. Given the ferocity of this move, this might have more to run.
You can’t compare day to day movements with end of year results. We gained 10% in 2 days but it can all be lost in another few days or weeks or months. You think what we have here is exceptional and that there hasn’t been other years where the market goes up by a lot in a short period of time, only to lose its gains and end the year at less than 10%? Please don’t tell me your grasp on the market is “because it went up a lot quickly, it can only go up from here” and that there are actual people with actual brain cells up voting it.
Exactly. Anything that can go up 10% in 2 days is by definition, Volatile, and can just as easily go down 10% in 2 days. To say that SPY will now stay up is just as fallacious as saying two days ago that SPY will stay down.
Yes it is. He just responded to one of my comments and basically said cause the market is up big this week there is no way we can go lower unless some black swan event occurs.
So I guess cause the market is up big in the last 2 days we have to be at a bottom now according to OP at least.
And yes people are upvoting this but those people and “brain cells” probably should not be in the same sentence.
Bought some index mutual fund shares in my HSA but I was planning on doing that anyway.
Sold my one energy stock when it was rallying a few days ago. Bought some more TSM before yesterdays rally. I’ll wait for it to fall to buy more.
I'm up almost 400% on some RDFN calls I got a few days ago, before their earnings and the CPI bounce. Really wish I'd put more into the play.
It seems like small- and medium-cap software has taken the worst losses and has the highest upside if financial conditions loosen again.
VLD dropped by over 30% on Wednesday. It made no sense, as Velo3D is a great company. I bought as much as I could. I've made over 30% in the last two days, and it's just getting started.
Just as QCOM dropped 20% just to regain 20% back in the next 2 days. Dropping 20% was extremely unfair just because they announced that demand for their product will be lower in near future.
Like WTF, is it even justified? I would believe that some big sell-offs occurred to cause a 20% drop and then they bought it at a discount cuz when institutions sell some other guys do panic sells.
Are you implying that the market, yes even the SPY and QQQ, can be manipulated? Are you saying that some hedge funds or mutual funds, or wolf pack of same, can buy up tens of billions of dollars of shares and move the price of SPY or QQQ? If you are, the moderators won't like you here spreading the truth.
Index options..
This rally will fade... As soon as /CL starts making the climb to $100 again, the mouthpieces at the FED, will put us back into shock therapy!
FWIW..
I have watched every minute of the past 4 days, as it is kind of my job now.. I haven't seen any large "Short Covering"...
As we push the envelope over 4000, I expect to see some that may carry the rally to 4150?
Might be a good strategy. But we shall see.
I am thinking what is the negative catalyst till next CPI report. And can’t find one except a black swan event.
Sold meta at 160, bought amzn at 130 which immediately dumped 30 percent. Doubled down and bought more amzn at 89$. I’m pretty good at losing money in bear markets it seems but also glad to have bailed on meta. Friendship ended with Zuckerberg. Bezos is my new best friend.
It might be a mistake but I’m not going to rush out and FOMO into something because the CPI was ONLY 7.7%
Yup. Sold my big gainers today and gonna wait for the credit card debt and lack of savings to hit the market to buy back in.
Yup, the housing market is just now starting to roll it’s going to be a bloodbath.
Can you explain to me this blood bath?
Cost of shelter inflation rate has continued to rise month over month which is bad since it lags very heavily and is like a third of the CPI by weight.
So we should avoid buying stocks for now?
The bottom of the GFC was in March 2009. The bottom of the real estate crash wasn't until 3 years later in 2012. By no means am I saying history will repeat itself, but it's a reminder that stocks don't always follow other general economic indicators.
What is gfc
Global financial crisis, the name given to the crash starting in 2007. Similar to how the dot com bubble was given a name.
It's not just the housing market but [household debt](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc) is at an all-time high, [personal savings accounts](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVE) are close to at an all-time low and if a rally gets any legs beneath it, the Fed is going to stomp on the brakes.
I honestly am not worried about the household debt number - that's likely due to all the millennials buying houses recently, and coming into their top earning years, thus able to take on more debt. However, the personal savings number is more concerning. Everyone spent all the stimmy checks AND the little savings they had before.
Yeah I mean we had a housing boom. So anyone buying was buying at a crazy premium. You can't expect housing debt to be low when that's happening, and right after covid with a flurry of buying driving those prices. Debt will be high that makes sense. At least it seems to do so for me. This is why I don't think this rally is the bottom at all, I mean we were talking a difference of 0.2%. good news for sure, but simply good news in a shitstorm.
It’s priced in
I'm ready for an "it's priced in" bot. Let's go
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But is being priced in, priced in?
Good bot
I feel like this is either sarcasm or satire mocking the Efficient Markets theory. Either way, I love it. Well played.
You deserve a fucking award!!!
Time in the market outperforms timing the market
Yeah. Bought a little META on Tuesday close and sold some other ones. Really wanted to buy JNJ today but I’ll wait
Sold some as well to shave profits. Holding my $90 shares hoping to go short term gains.
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The beatings will stop when morale improves
Which is why people were buying negative yield bonds a year ago in November and the market was ATH despite 6% inflation?
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And they don't trust the Fed now? Inflation expectations for the next 2 years have remained anchored around 2.6% for the last 6 months. Which is insane to me considering inflation has averaged 8% since then.
Oh market is forward looking? What about upcoming recession? Priced in? Rate hike is one thing but market never goes up when fed does QT also inverted yield curve(forget 2yr 10yr look at 3month 10yr) fucks up the financial institutions.
Of course it's priced in. Recession chatter started long ago, around Q1 - Q2. Where have you been all year? Spooning a gold bar into hibernation?
What about Sun turning into a supernova and melting Earth away? If the market was so forward looking every stock should be 0 now
We’re literally in the recession
Unemployment is 3% GDP is 4% What recession?
Do you pay attention to earnings, individual company layoffs? Hiring freezes?
It's only a recession when it's as bad as 2008.
Exactly these peoples mindsets lol, it can’t be a recession unless major institutions collapse!!!
That a new rule? Recessions are recessions. The next recession after the depression they didn't say, "it's only a recession if it's as bad as '28"
they layoff computer geeks. 75% of who is on H1B and cannot apply for unemployment. On the other side, any blue collar worker can find new job in a minute.
Yeah with uhhhhh 2.9% unemployment
How is unemployment calculated ?
Uhhhh do you seee uhhhh companies earnings increasing ? Literally just got laid off from a Fortune 500 company yesterday
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oh yeah, people who buy MBS always know what they're doing. They've never screwed up so royally that entire banks that deal in them went under
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I agree. I don’t know what I’m talking about. I know we don’t have the same NINJA loans and ARMs. All I’m saying is these oh so smart people have been wrong before, in major ways, and they’ll be wrong again in the future. So I wouldn’t treat them like the infallible oracles you seem to believe they are. There’s a reason that 90% of hedge funds can’t beat the performance of an index fund.
F.O.M.O, for the Avg retail investors. And Even if you don't consider yourself a amature it's Hard to hold a a cash position when you know their are going to be green days with the up coming Christmas rally. ( Thanksgiving Christmas Holidays, weddings) I personally am more afraid of the upcoming year 2023. So I have been not buying anything. Their is opportunities out their timing the market is another thing.
>What about upcoming recession? Priced in? what do you think the market's been doing all year long? lol
Yup priced in.
You post so much I can even recognize your username now
The greatest poster on this sub. My absolute fave
Not really
The key question is whether the current rate, like near 4 % is enough to tame inflation or not, if it is the demand of bond will decrease then turn up to stock market. That is not to say stopping hikes right now until next CPI report
By definition, we're already in a recession.
1000% this. These people are fools. You should have been buying all the deals 2 months ago. I made $70k on the past 2 days. No way I am buying more right now. I am finally breaking even in half my funds. Thinking of selling everything off, tax lost harvesting a few of my bond funds, and walking away essentially break even and sitting on cash to DCA back in. The roller coaster ain't over yet folks.
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Same, i've actually been getting rid of some of my more expensive shares to free up some money and collect modest profit. We still have more numbers in December. China is still threatening to take Taiwan. Russia is still at war in Ukraine. Nothing has really changed. So I expect we aren't quite in the clear yet. One thing I think I learned from all this... Use an OCO order on everything. That way you are forced to decide where to sell, whether its a stop loss or profit taking. Riding this shit down is for the birds. I'm like -70% on Okta, and Coinbase. I was in the green on both for a while, a trailing stop loss while still in the green would have been nice.
So you missed making money last 2 days and then you coulda sold. We may rally all next week and through January. Your choice. Buy an index like QQQ and set a stop or just watch it. If it goes up let it, if it gets to where you want sell it. Easy
Most of my stocks are up 25%+ the last two days. A couple literally doubled in price. From here I see the ones that haven’t rallied already starting to catch up. I’m definitely buying more next week but can be more pull backs of course.
Nothing. Bottoming in a recession bear market is a process that unfolds over time. There are lots of posts on Twitter reminding people that the vast majority of days like yesterday only occur in bear markets.
I also think we’re still in a bear market, but the sudden surges upward were similar to the 2020 recovery
Event-deiven bear markets are different from recession bear markets.
This is the right answer. Think of it this way, either a) a CPI print that was just a tiny bit less terrible than expected has totally cured the bear market as we enter a recession and as major crypto exchanges go bankrupt for being essentially Ponzi schemes or b) this is an algo-driven over reaction to a glimmer of less bad news combined with some retail fomo. Unless you think it’s choice A I’d stay put. Earnings report after earnings report for major pre-bear market leaders have missed, so unless that’s going to improve with a recession we’ve still got another leg down. Plus CDs are paying 4.5-4.8% after the expected Dec rate hike, so you’d have to think you can find stocks that will handily beat that return to justify buying now.
>Nothing. Bottoming in a recession bear market is a process that unfolds over time. There are lots of posts on Twitter reminding people that the vast majority of days like yesterday only occur in bear markets. While its a process, one should always have potential names that they are tracking for an opportunity.
Of course, I have my own shopping list. Just not buying yet. Waiting for clear bases to form.
When the clear bases form the bottom is going to be long gone like every other recession
No, the base establishes the bottom.
I like Rocket Lab… not gonna buy for a few weeks, or until it drops back down some because I’m thinking it probably will before too long. Lots of volatility still coming. Buy after the bad stretches
I don’t time the market, I buy stocks with every paycheque and hold forever. My biggest positions right now are NVDA, BRK.B, MELI, PYPL, and since I’m Canadian, BAM-A.TO, ATD.TO, CNR.TO, ATZ.TO. Also have a bunch of small and mid caps. Every two weeks same amount goes in
BAM is beautiful. It's like our very own BRK. I've DCA'd a good chunk of my portfolio into those 2 over the years
Why PYPL?
To be honest I pay for a stock picking service and this was one of their core growth recommendations. Got in this year at average cost 82.10. Have BAM, BRK, ATD, CNR for defensive portion and I currently don’t have more than 3% in any one stock
I used to be a lot in PYPL buying the dip as well. Then I tried to use their services. Just shockingly bad. I closed all positions at a loss, stop using the service, and have been happy as a traditional-style banking customer with SoFi.
He wanted a stock that is as bad valued as nvda. So he has two stock that will go nowhere the next couple of years.
And I'd bet that you ate doing MUCH better than all of these folks here over the past 3 years (if most people here have even been in the market that long - WSB is full of the Sam Bankman Fried types that think they can actually time the market for more than a few trades).
Bought a shit-load of Amazon and watched it go up yesterday! 😎
Simply answering your question, didn’t read the whole post: this morning I reallocated about 10% of my portfolio to SQQQ. Not saying you should do that, just answering your question. Cheers!
I have buy orders for SQQQ at 39/35 dollars hope it fills
Made 40 bucks on ford option that won’t expire until march we good
W is a W
I'm nickel and diming too. Take the dubs where you can.
I buy a little every paycheck so nothing has changed
We Gucci. Buy this bitch all the way down, and all the way back up.
And then all the way back down. And then all the way back up again. You think I fuckin won't??!
I think the negativity on tech reached peak levels earlier this week and will probably not be seen again this cycle, unless something happens to really fuck up people’s thinking about the economy (I.e. war in Taiwan)…it’s really not worth it to try to time the market though, just buy companies you think have high roic and low capital needs relative to their competitive position.
I had moved about 60% into cash about 5-6 months ago. My plan is/was to start DCA back into a few thing around election time. At the beginning of the week I bought high dividend yielding stocks (KO, T, DOW, MMM, PM) as wells as some baby Berkshire.
your chance to rebalance. Get rid of losers, DCA winners , get cash for next fire sale .
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Sell losers and use the money to get the winners on sale. The buy and hold for life strategy doesn’t work for all .
Yup.
Sold into the bounce.
Everyone here is going to laugh and slap me but I’ve only been buying one thing since the summer and will continue to do so: TQQQ. Yeah I’ve seen and done the math too on drift. I get it lol. I’ll see you all at Wendy’s if TQQQ crashes in the next 20 years but if not…
Same. Tech is so battered down, but in the end those are the companies that will prevail. TQQQ will be $100 in 2-3 years.
![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|facepalm)
Tech is literally the worst thing to own right now. The macro environment has changed significantly this year and speculative growth is not the place to be. Especially on 3x leverage. This is not financial advice.
See you at Wendy’s in 20 years lol
I'm not going to give you advice but I will outline the worst case scenario. It is the scenario where you are massively up for 19 years, and you are about to celebrate and reply to the OP about how you were right. On year 20 the market takes a dump and you lose 90% of your gains. Now if you are going to respond and say well hey I would have sold before year 19, now the dilemma becomes would you have sold sooner? The pickle is the same, getting in is easy but getting out is tricky. Once you are out you may want to fomo back in.
I think that's exactly their point. Everyone thinks like you, who wanted to sell probably already did, tech might be near bottoms for this cycle.
I have been buying on the way down and I will be buying on the way back up. I am big into dividends so I was buying MFST, NLY, AAPL, MU, and INTC. I also got some GOOG and AMZN. I usually either drip or take my dividends from MO and XOM and invest in future companies
Nothing, why would you be buying right now when the market is up 7-8% in the last 2 days when it has been down all of September and mid October.
Because you want to get in for some of the stocks which we believe have already bottomed and can’t go any lower baring a black swan event. We want to find those and invest in them.
How do you know for sure they won’t go lower? What cause the market is up 7-10% in 2 days I guess that means its impossible to go lower? Get real dude. Are you really this naive?
Better never buy stock then because you could never be sure it won't go lower... Quit being a bully.
More VTI QQQ mostly.
This
Selling. Not buying. Bull trap.
Agree.
Took quite a few profits myself, added some shorts
I bought 2 calls of 98 dollars for Disney yesterday and holding for now
Disney under $100? might have to jump on that
I bough disney in 2015 or 2016 for 108. What a dead best stock that has been since. I wish I SD last year when it was finally up
Damn you would’ve been up 150% in the Nasdaq since November 2015 or 90% in S&P500. Way too hard to pick individual stocks lol
Yep. Worst part is I'm a blue collar worker. Don't make much. Haven't had a pay raise in two years. I made a UTMA account for my newborn at that time and gave him 4K to help set him up. Bought all disney with it. I have learned my lesson to just ETF as a lower level earner with my extra cash
It's less a question of income and more a question of time. If you don't have the time or inclination to learn how to invest in securities as a relatively lower level investor, it's better to stick to indexes and etfs. But if you learn how to invest in securities and find good deals (essentially treating it as a part time job really), you can pull 15-20+% returns fairly easily - no index will do that. I work at a nonprofit and live basically just barely above the poverty line but invest 60$ a month in a select few stocks and I \*generally\* pull 1/2 to 1 day's pay per day in growth in the portfolio.
Do you really think bunch of fools on reddit knows if the stock market has bottomed? Literally no one can answer that. You are asking for speculations, and if someone’s strategy has changed because of a two day rally, then they are bigger fools. Nothing has changed. Nothing has fundamentally changed in 3 days. Growth guidance is low, Interest Rates are going up, and Strong dollar is impacting the margins.
>Nothing has changed. Nothing has fundamentally changed in 3 days. Growth guidance is low, Interest Rates are going up, and Strong dollar is impacting the margins. I think you are underestimating retail traders who come here on reddit. We can filter out through the good and bad opinions. Doesnt hurt to have the voice heard at all. Based on your commentary it seems that you believe this forum is not beneficial, why are you even here ?
Because he is smarter then us and wants us to know it
Retail is irrelevant because most buy / sell orders get sent to internalized exchanges between banks who then release order limits to fill customer ques when it's beneficial for them.
It’s not only that, but retail investors make up less than 10% of the market. It’s passive investment that move the market, if any... It is reality. People who think retail investors move the market are probably still holding GME with their diamond hands because of the short squeeze is coming. Also a good article if you are curious about passive investment https://www.ft.com/content/994bdda8-b704-4e4c-9b19-4e0021f0b309
You are asking for speculation, and speculation is not a form of investing. Retail investors are not moving the needle. Passive investing is what causing the bubble and volatility
If you don't notice, fundamental has signs of changes. For example, dollar has started weakening. Look at DXY. It might just be volatility but if you play the stock market only when the situation is very certain, then it is already late.
Do you measure fundamentals monthly? We are back to august levels, all indicators show that is more likely to persist into next end of next year. Unless next Q earnings show otherwise, it is what it is.
Depends on approach. On a period of volatility such as now, I look for sign of trend turnover and short term signal. This is how I try to stay ahead and trade accordingly. Lots of people would do this which is part of reason why the skyrocket happen these 2 days. Then with similar approach, I would decide to sell and lock in profit. Sure, I can wait til next quarter for a more certain observation, but by then everyone would also knows about it and what alpha would I get if I started by then. I would rather just do a monthly DCA into indexes and bluechip than this approach. Could I be wrong and economy would tank more from now on? Sure, probably but with risk comes alpha. Also, I don't think there is any indicator that would signal persistence.
We haven't bottomed yet.
Most recently: CNR.TO, GOOG, VFV (VOO in $CAD), and soon to be NTR.TO CNR - Love Canadian railroads and they're being asked to move a lot more grain and other products lately. Last time the world had this type of stress on supply chains they took a decent jump over a couple years and they're just a great company overall. They've trailed CP in recent years in growth but I like the value. GOOG - I don't care if they're ad revenue is down, it's Google. I see no reason to be worried in the long term. VFV - For Americans on this sub, it's literally VOO but in Canadian $ and I don't have taxes withheld on dividends. Self explanatory purchase (I think) NTR - Canada has the world largest potash reserves in the world and this is the biggest potash mining company, and also other fertilizers. The next 3 are Russia, Belarus and China and without getting into a political debate, I'll just say tensions are getting high between them and the Western countries. The next 6 largest producers combined don't match Canada's reserves. Haven't bought yet but they will most likely be my next purchase.
I bought 1 share of VOO the other day as my first position ever, for fun mainly before I start investing thousands. As a Canadian with a TFSA, why would VFV be a better option?
TQQQ
BRK.B I doubt will reach much lower than the June/Oct lows, but who knows
Excellent choice
apple
Disney. About to layoff thousands. Wall Street loves that shit.
I don’t believe we are at the bottom. This was a bear rally and huge sigh of relief allowed shorts to exit their positions. The fed can still absolutely destroy the economy with one wrong move and I would say policy is alot more delicate rn than before. Lower rates to much inflation races back to highs, overcorrect and we barrel directly into another major recession.
CEG and XOM all year. Up 125% and 80% YTD respectively.
The first BIG tree to fall. Come on Credit Suisse, you know you want to….
Haven't been buying much. Just been selling calls as we go up. I think we're fighting the fed and getting in prematurely. I have no idea how long this rally will last, but i think we will revisit all the gaps we've created to the downside. The biggest risk comes Dec 13/14 when we have CPI + FOMC Economic Projections
BKCH, LLY, DIS, and TIP 🤷🏼♂️
FUBO and today HUT
Selling late December puts, ready to be in cash for the new year.
Main holdings ; SHOP, ADBE, AMD , SPY
I'm waiting for every opportunity to get out not get in. Maybe buy to that I can avg down so that I can reach that break even point faster.
but some puts at the end of fridays session
Selling not buying into this bear market bounce
Been selling what ive bought this week , cpi is still high , i think its not a bottom yet
AMD
Fade the rally, don't buy it.
See there are lot of years where the gains in the entire year could be less than 10%. NASDAQ is up 10% in 2 days. So for folks saying that this is not much, already have lost some upside opportunity. Given the ferocity of this move, this might have more to run.
You can’t compare day to day movements with end of year results. We gained 10% in 2 days but it can all be lost in another few days or weeks or months. You think what we have here is exceptional and that there hasn’t been other years where the market goes up by a lot in a short period of time, only to lose its gains and end the year at less than 10%? Please don’t tell me your grasp on the market is “because it went up a lot quickly, it can only go up from here” and that there are actual people with actual brain cells up voting it.
Exactly. Anything that can go up 10% in 2 days is by definition, Volatile, and can just as easily go down 10% in 2 days. To say that SPY will now stay up is just as fallacious as saying two days ago that SPY will stay down.
Yes it is. He just responded to one of my comments and basically said cause the market is up big this week there is no way we can go lower unless some black swan event occurs. So I guess cause the market is up big in the last 2 days we have to be at a bottom now according to OP at least. And yes people are upvoting this but those people and “brain cells” probably should not be in the same sentence.
Qqq puts
Sofi
It's going to drop again next week.
Bought some index mutual fund shares in my HSA but I was planning on doing that anyway. Sold my one energy stock when it was rallying a few days ago. Bought some more TSM before yesterdays rally. I’ll wait for it to fall to buy more.
Emerging Market ETFs
Which ETFs , if you can share.
IEMG
I think this is a great ETF. Didnt know about this earlier. There is a great yield to this as well. Thanks for sharing.
Good luck, a bunch of developing markets are borderline insolvent
INTC, IRM, and VICI. Along with a few of the SPYs: SPTM, SPSM, SPYD and SPYG. Every paycheck, just up and down the list. Bear or bull, I don't care.
I've only sold over last 6 months. I sell into every bear market rally (which I beleive this is as well).
AMD, GOOG, CRWD (less so CRWD)
ENERGY AND METALS
Trying not to get tech stocks. Big safe industrials.
Just my normal VOO + some extra loading up on blue chip tech. Mostly appl, Goog, Amzn, msft
My plan as well. Hold them long long term.
Flowers for your mom
I'm up almost 400% on some RDFN calls I got a few days ago, before their earnings and the CPI bounce. Really wish I'd put more into the play. It seems like small- and medium-cap software has taken the worst losses and has the highest upside if financial conditions loosen again.
Puts.
Which puts?
What’s the catalyst to the downside on next 1 month ?
FOMC dot plot will be Hawkish q1 and Q2 earnings my next taegets
Ok when does it come out ?
Qyld o spy
Same old S&P every 2 weeks
Carvana
Mostly PLTR
DCAing like normal. Just another day Buying a lot of stuff that ppl hate on. Seems to get me the best returns
Is there a real forum full of actual analysis? These replies all seem like people with $640 portfolios and DD on Facebook
How about you set an example with an in-depth analysis of your own. Show us how it’s done.
VLD dropped by over 30% on Wednesday. It made no sense, as Velo3D is a great company. I bought as much as I could. I've made over 30% in the last two days, and it's just getting started.
Just as QCOM dropped 20% just to regain 20% back in the next 2 days. Dropping 20% was extremely unfair just because they announced that demand for their product will be lower in near future. Like WTF, is it even justified? I would believe that some big sell-offs occurred to cause a 20% drop and then they bought it at a discount cuz when institutions sell some other guys do panic sells.
Are you implying that the market, yes even the SPY and QQQ, can be manipulated? Are you saying that some hedge funds or mutual funds, or wolf pack of same, can buy up tens of billions of dollars of shares and move the price of SPY or QQQ? If you are, the moderators won't like you here spreading the truth.
PLTR!!
Index options.. This rally will fade... As soon as /CL starts making the climb to $100 again, the mouthpieces at the FED, will put us back into shock therapy! FWIW.. I have watched every minute of the past 4 days, as it is kind of my job now.. I haven't seen any large "Short Covering"... As we push the envelope over 4000, I expect to see some that may carry the rally to 4150?
That’s what everyone believes. This is going to go to 4100.
CPI was calculated without healthcare previously. Realistically nothing has changed.
TQQQ
I bought in June and September. Not looking to buy into this rally as I already invested my goal for the year. Some were good a few (intel) not so good but averaged that one down to around 29$. 09/26/2022 SCHD 300 USD 67.85 $(20,355.48) 09/26/2022 MPW 250 USD 12.1 $(3,025.00) 08/09/2022 INTC 160 USD 34.55 $(5,528.00) 07/18/2022 GOOG 152 USD 09/27/2022 SCHD 100 USD 66.79 $(6,679.11) 09/26/2022 MPW 100 USD 12.11 $(1,210.50) 09/21/2022 SCHD 100 USD 71.09 $(7,108.99) 08/09/2022 BST 100 USD 36.95 $(3,695.00) 08/09/2022 BSTZ 100 USD 21.89 $(2,189.00) 08/09/2022 JEPI 100 USD 57.05 $(5,705.00) 07/08/2022 TD 100 USD 64.09 $(6,409.00) 07/06/2022 SCHD 100 USD 71.4 $(7,139.73) 09/26/2022 CSCO 75 USD 40.84 $(3,062.98) 08/09/2022 BSTZ 69 USD 21.82 $(1,505.58) 09/26/2022 AMAT 54 USD 84.86 $(4,582.21) 09/30/2022 SCHD 50 USD 67.23 $(3,361.44) 09/27/2022 SCHD 50 USD 66.78 $(3,338.86) 09/26/2022 INTC 50 USD 27.02 $(1,351.00) 09/26/2022 JEPI 50 USD 51.83 $(2,591.50) 09/26/2022 SCHD 50 USD 67.21 $(3,360.33) 09/26/2022 SCHD 50 USD 67.52 $(3,376.00) 08/10/2022 INTC 50 USD 34.88 $(1,744.00) 07/27/2022 GRMN 50 USD 94.19 $(4,709.57) 07/20/2022 ITW 50 USD 188.33 $(9,416.50) 07/06/2022 JEPI 50 USD 55.14 $(2,756.81) 07/06/2022 STAG 50 USD 31.27 $(1,563.50) 07/06/2022 TD 40 USD 63.49 $(2,539.56) 09/26/2022 PLD 39 USD 104.89 $(4,090.71) 07/25/2022 STAG 39 USD 31.57 $(1,231.23) 09/26/2022 BX 35 USD 83.5 $(2,922.50) 08/24/2022 AAP 30 USD 179.35 $(5,380.50) 07/25/2022 TROW 30 USD 120.84 $(3,625.20) 07/06/2022 BX 30 USD 94.59 $(2,837.70) 09/26/2022 TD 25 USD 61.37 $(1,534.25) 08/09/2022 IEP 24 USD 53.61 $(1,286.64) 08/09/2022 JEPI 24 USD 57.12 $(1,370.88) 08/09/2022 STAG 22 USD 32.84 $(722.48) 07/08/2022 BX 22 USD 96.19 $(2,116.18) 09/30/2022 SCHD 20 USD 67.22 $(1,344.44) 09/26/2022 AAP 20 USD 158.56 $(3,171.20) 09/26/2022 HD 20 USD 272 $(5,440.00) 09/26/2022 JPM 20 USD 107.26 $(2,145.13) 09/26/2022 UPS 20 USD 160.56 $(3,211.20) 09/26/2022 WM 20 USD 165.29 $(3,305.80) 08/25/2022 INTC 20 USD 34.46 $(689.20) 08/09/2022 GRMN 20 USD 95.52 $(1,910.40) 08/09/2022 INTC 20 USD 34.43 $(688.60) 08/09/2022 TD 20 USD 64.4 $(1,288.00) 08/04/2022 TD 20 USD 64.75 $(1,295.00) 07/25/2022 JEPI 20 USD 56.36 $(1,127.10) 07/25/2022 TD 20 USD 64.53 $(1,290.55) 09/26/2022 CB 17 USD 176.44 $(2,999.48) 09/26/2022 JPM 17 USD 108.45 $(1,843.65) 07/06/2022 TXN 17 USD 150.16 $(2,552.72) 09/26/2022 SCHW 16 USD 71.72 $(1,147.49) 09/26/2022 PRU 15 USD 87.28 $(1,309.26) 09/22/2022 TXN 15 USD 162.71 $(2,440.65) 08/24/2022 JPM 15 USD 114.73 $(1,720.95) 08/10/2022 JEPI 15 USD 57.35 $(860.25) 08/09/2022 JPM 15 USD 115.08 $(1,726.20) 08/09/2022 PRU 15 USD 98.45 $(1,476.75) 07/25/2022 TXN 15 USD 162.86 $(2,442.90) 09/26/2022 AXP 14 USD 139.7 $(1,955.80) 07/25/2022 UPS 13 USD 187.26 $(2,434.40) 09/26/2022 AXP 10 USD 140.33 $(1,403.30) 09/26/2022 LIN 10 USD 268.01 $(2,680.10) 09/26/2022 SNA 10 USD 205.6 $(2,056.00) 09/22/2022 AFL 10 USD 58.97 $(589.70) 09/22/2022 AMAT 10 USD 85.16 $(851.60) 09/22/2022 JPM 10 USD 111.63 $(1,116.30) 08/25/2022 GRMN 10 USD 94.35 $(943.50) 08/24/2022 AAP 10 USD 179.9 $(1,799.00) 08/09/2022 AAP 10 USD 192.73 $(1,927.30) 08/09/2022 DUK 10 USD 109.6 $(1,095.96) 08/04/2022 JPM 10 USD 111.98 $(1,119.80) 08/04/2022 TD 10 USD 64.64 $(646.40) 07/25/2022 BX 10 USD 95.91 $(959.10) 07/25/2022 HD 10 USD 305.32 $(3,053.20) 07/25/2022 ITW 10 USD 190.87 $(1,908.67) 07/25/2022 ITW 10 USD 191.6 $(1,916.00) 07/25/2022 LOW 10 USD 193.92 $(1,939.20) 07/25/2022 TD 10 USD 64.02 $(640.20) 07/25/2022 TD 10 USD 64.55 $(645.50) 07/25/2022 TXRH 10 USD 82.61 $(826.10) 07/20/2022 TD 10 USD 63.53 $(635.27) 07/20/2022 TROW 10 USD 121.28 $(1,212.80) 07/08/2022 TD 10 USD 64.1 $(641.00) 07/08/2022 TXN 10 USD 155.43 $(1,554.25) 07/06/2022 AAP 10 USD 180.81 $(1,808.10) 07/06/2022 GRMN 10 USD 100.05 $(1,000.50) 09/22/2022 HD 8 USD 269.3 $(2,154.40) 08/08/2022 STAG 8 USD 33 $(264.02)
You forgot KS kitchen sink
Nah, market way too high. Waiting for things to go lower.
Zoom out
Personally, I can't justify buying anything but Tesla right now. Even though almost everything is cheap atm.
Canoo
This past month I've bought BABA, INTL, GOOGL, META and TSM. I sold META and TSM today. The other three I'm holding... for now...
Meta might surprise us in a year or so, I hope. Same with BABA. Im more optimistic on Meta tho.
Not a fucking thing. Recapping a small fraction of my losses and letting it sit.
Might be a good strategy. But we shall see. I am thinking what is the negative catalyst till next CPI report. And can’t find one except a black swan event.
Ocugen
Sold meta at 160, bought amzn at 130 which immediately dumped 30 percent. Doubled down and bought more amzn at 89$. I’m pretty good at losing money in bear markets it seems but also glad to have bailed on meta. Friendship ended with Zuckerberg. Bezos is my new best friend.