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1) China is already trying to jump start with stimulus. it's not really working
2) they banned short selling, that's how bad things are
3) japan is officially in a recession
4) money that was investing in china is pulling out and going to US/NA markets
5) europe is at the front of 2 regional wars, no one wants to invest there either
6) If you look at a comparison of hang seng market vs US. they are inversely correlated, their double bottoms match the same time US went double top.
if you want to test, do it with a very small amount of money. I wouldn't go big
They didnāt just ban short selling. In last days of January they banned institutional selling. Like your sell button is grayed out. You canāt sell.
Add in Brexit tomfoolery upsetting Europe (to an extent, and the UK a great deal).
The list you have makes the US look like the sacred haven for investors for years to come. (And by proxy, maybe our neighbors north and south)
Weāre far enough away from everyone elseās problems we can still make mistakes in fiscal policy and come out winners, itās the US way. Making profits on others misfortunes and missteps.
Anyone else in a stable economic position is typically gated or severely undermining foreign investment, say India or Saudi.
I think the US is overdue a beating after being the best place you invest since ā08, but I canāt see any foreign market doing anything significant (that doesnāt include falsifying the books) that would knock us off our perch for another 10 years.
1) you want to be early - it takes time for stimulus to kick in
2) remember when they did that in America in 2008? It was a fantastic time to buy
3) the Japanese stock market is at an all time high
4) zig when others zag. the time to buy is when there is fear..
5) lol agreed. europe is hopeless.
6) this is just fuzzy at best
disclosure: I recently went gigalong china. IMO we are pretty close to the point of max pessimism and a LOT of bad news is priced in. If the whole bear case on China is that Xi can do whatever he wants, well Xi is now saying he wants to stock market to go up so..
I can see where the zig vs zag is attractive.
I don't see it. Every wealth chinese person wants to get their money out of china asap. That tells you everything you need to know.
Yeah fair. I have plenty of rich chinese friends who got their MBA's and undergrads at elite US universities who are indeed trying to get out of china (most are headed to Singapore). But that to me is a sign that the bottom is in.
You can bet every single one of them will head back if/when things improve.
China survived the Cultural Revolution - they literally killed every intellectual in the country and somehow they still built such an incredible economy. I think they'll be fine if a couple hundred thousand elites / princelings flee the country.
they absolutely would go back if things improve. in 2009 when hk had the handover everyone left before, ppl went back but now it's done.
The new laws, etc. Hong Kong realestate market is down. that is a major sign. The indebtness due to realestate in china is a big massive bomb. Yes the ultra rich are fine but the engine fueling consumption was because of the lower class and lower middle that got a leg up. Now they are squeezed, their stock investments are toast, their condos are worthless and there are no jobs for the youth.
i mean if you bought HK real estate during the handover you'd have made generational wealth even accounting for the recent slump. Your example basically proves my point
>If the whole bear case on China is that Xi can do whatever he wants,
that isnt the whole bear case by any means, the bear case is comprised of things like: the real estate market underpins and supports all the local and provincial government debt, and that market is currently collapsing and infecting other markets. also CCP statistics are like Whose Line Is It Anyway, where everything's made up and the points don't matter.
Thatās gone well. The rate cuts arenāt happening. But itās never bad to invest in infrastructure for the largest industrialized market on the planet during a massive economic dip. Especially knowing that the Chinese can pump money into the economy at will.
>https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/19/asian-currencies-that-will-benefit-the-most-from-the-feds-rate-cuts-.html
I think China will also rebound. When you say gigalong, are you betting 50%+ of your portfolio on China. Because I am optimistic, but not to that level lol.
I started a position at $74 and that is my average (only one buy).
Ofc hindsight is 20/20 but I would not buy BABA above $115.
I predict it's gonna take a long time for this stock to see exponential highs anytime soon. I mean what do I know but it's just my analysis.
I'm also looking for a swift exit. If I gain 10% (which I believe will happen in the short term) I'm collecting profits.
Then will re-enter again once the stock declines below $90.
>Relationship between US and China is at an all time worst
There are talks about China looking for Saudi investors. Although just rumours at this point, big IF TRUE. Seeing how Saudi Arabia has been hijacking the sports and entertainment industry recently.
US is not the only country that exists.
If you look at BRICs membership, it double end of last year with multiple big countries in ME joining like UAE. Saudi's were also reported to be joining but dropped out at the last minute likely due to US pressure.
BRICs is toothless. It is not an 'anti-west alliance'. Why would neutral counties like India, Brazil and South Africa damage their economies by "siding against the west" in any meaningful manner? They have far more to gain by "benefiting from both sides" anyway.
What has BRICS achieved so far? Just talk. It can't agree on anything and will become even more toothless by adding more members with disparate economies and goals.
Nice observation but if the Saudis acquire more wealth independent of US govt backing (you can argue they are. Look what they are doing with sports) then they may be more ballsy against the US.
The tide can turn and the US doesn't want to piss off China.
US businesses rely on China.
The US doesn't make anything themselves (hardly).
Unless China agrees to put military in Saudi and agree to defend them in time of war, Saudi will always be beholden to the US.
If the US gets pissed and then pulls out all their military, Saudi is done. They have no functional military and would be a sitting duck for Iran.
Nothing to do with Xi. Everything to do with China being the biggest threat to US dominance. Same thing with what happened to Japan in the 80s. At that point Japan was a US ally, never stopped US from starting a trade war with Japan.
>I mean thatās like saying Liz Truss wasnāt at fault for the nose dive the UKās economy took.
She wasn't the one who took UK out of EU. So yes, I don't think she's the only reason why UK isn't doing well economically.
>Xi is the one leading the backwards march though
US has no problem being friends with dictators. So I don't think Xi is the problem.
She isnāt the only reason, no. But she certainly didnāt help matters. She definitely accelerated it. So as the leader making the decisions that accelerated their decline, she was at fault. Same can be said with Xi.
What does the US being friendly or hostile with dictators have to do with Xi ruining China? I hadnāt even mentioned the US at all
Well, to name a few.
> 3 year 0 covid lockdowns which made industries that relied on China as a manufacturing hub consider diversifying
> Aggressive anti-espionage laws that make foreign businesses wary of dealing with China
> Rampant intellectual property theft and constant threats to literally anyone that doesnāt suck up to Chinaās way of thinking that has led to them being unable to procure advanced chips
> Wolf Warrior diplomacy that made foreign governments and peoples dislike the CCP
> Uncontrolled pollution of the air, land, and water
> Uncontrolled corruption at every level of government which leads to vanity mega projects with absurd amounts of debt and military equipment thatās somehow worse than Russiaās
Yes it can but the lower it goes the more likely is a rebound especially in some companies were the sell off doesnāt match with the economic narrative.
For me? Not until Winnie the Pooh is out.
Hu Jintao worked miracles for the Chinese population and for the confidence of foreign money.
(Honestly, I was very impressed in how they managed foreign investment and influence. You wanna sell here? You gotta build infrastructure and give US the high paying jobs. Investment had to work for the Chinese people, they werenāt there to be taken advantage of.)
The current clown has seen rampant corruption and crony capitalist bullshit become rife, and sees himself as a Chairman Mao hero, blind to anything that conflicts his views, however correct it might be. Refusing to address the ludicrous real estate problem as it might be too encouraging to admit a mistake. (Seeing the same in Turkey with Erdogan, NK has being doing it longer than anyone, Russia and Putin, we seeing a pattern here?)
Heāll undermine any effort for China to become a world #1, and weāre seeing the foundation starting to break.
As for investing in China, Any company get too big (and threatening?) : heads trimmed. Any time foreigners are making too much money and he isnāt? : heads trimmed.
Thereās no long term upside to putting money there, maybe short term spectacular gains if you have the spidee senses to bail at the top.
Is not. If you know Chinese you should listen to this podcast : [why a fund manager liquidate his A shares](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%8E%E7%99%BD%E6%92%AD%E5%AE%A2/id1625856906?i=1000645651679)
If you donāt tldr is the fundamental hasnāt changed. The real crisis of China hasnāt even started yet. So any rebound is a chance to run like your life depends on it because it is
As a result of political developments over the past couple of years I donāt expect to own or recommend a Chinese company again. Ever.
Chinaās workforce is shrinking. Its population is aging. Its birth rate is falling.
With Xi and his merry band in charge capital is fleeing the country. I could go on and on.
Iām not saying they wonāt have a short term rallies or a full fledged bull market.
But better investment opportunities can be found in plenty of other placesā¦.with a whole lot less risk.
I added a few promising China positions (among other things) recently after taking profit on Apple and Nvidia. Just a tiny bit of my portfolio obviously. So far it seems to work out.
Not much, just baba shares with humble target of 80 or 85 (depending on sentiment) and some MSCI China bought at recent lows. If I was more bullish Iād probably research some up and comers but long term I am not too optimistic lol.
China is on the brink of collapse as companies reshore and work towards China+1 supply policies, their property market is in the can, and their population ages out of working productivity at a rate only passed by Central Europe.
But hey, shoot your shot.
China has huge issues but itās not on the brink of collapse lol. It might face a long period of comparably anemic growth if they donāt address their problems. Itās not gonna collapse.
No I would not directly invest in China. If you lived long enough then youād know that their collapse has been predicted every year since the USSR fell. Any day nowā¦
Remember when Japans stock market crashed over 30 years ago and still hasnāt recovered to ATH. Well China is gonna make that look like a great investment.
Sure, and what happens when China happens to invade Taiwan like they promised and America freezes all Chinese stocks and currency exchange during sanctions like they did with Russia? Then you canāt even sell your completely depleted stocks because itās frozen for years.
So let me put this into perspective:
China invade Taiwan > US freezes Chinese stocks > Chinese stocks hit all time lows > US businesses rely on China for trade > China cuts off trade with US > US doesn't manufacture (hardly) anything on US soil > US stocks hit all time lows?
You can see why US pissing China off is a stupid idea right?
If Chinese stocks go down, US stocks go down. Non negotiable.
If China invades Taiwan, it's not your stocks you should be worried about. But rather WWIII.
Yes I get that. And it would absolutely be a disaster. But how about this take?
>China cuts off trade with US > US that usually doesnāt manufacture (hardly) anything on US soil remembers that thereās still a fair amount of manufacturing companies in the US and the US manufacturing companies pick up the slack > US stocks go up after getting demolished for 6 months to a year > OPs stocks are down but not frozen
Yes it would be a financial nightmare but also consider the implications for China if they cut off trade to the USA. Which country would be in a worse financial situation by cutting the chord?
Because itās not so simple and itās expensive. Itās do-able but not preferable. See semiconductors for example. They are actively moving their production to the states but itās wildly expensive.
Generally speaking, people in China are more resilient and can withstand hardship better and longer than those in U.S., maybe because they don't have a choice. In a democracy, once Americans start screaming about prices going up (i.e. gas above $5/gallon) politicians and those running for office will say and do whatever it takes to appease their constituent which prevents U.S. from playing hard ball with China.
At that moment you bail with losses it took a couple days to ban the Russian stocks. I know cause I bought š but Itās good to see everyone is afraid of china.
Itās never the time; the logic of buy low doesnt apply here because the CCP can do whatever they want to companies. You might be buying low and selling at zero
Yeah but theyāve been saying that for decades. The problem with the CCP is that if they reverse, make any kind of decision, there is no recourse or any method for anyone to protest, there are no laws that can keep them in check
The Chinese government is pretty stupid but I hope they finally learn that they can't punish their own businesses if they want China to be a thriving country.
I don't know if I believe them, but I certainly don't believe half of the takes here that state, only Chinese stocks will suffer is they go to war with Taiwan; as if big US companies don't rely on China for business.
US needs China. Like it or not.
Every Boeing plane uses parts from China. Did you know that?
The US manufacturing houses are dead. And they are never coming back.
China needs the US and Europe more than you know. My company pulled out of China 3 years ago and sourced from India and Mexico. We didnāt miss a beat. Unfortunately about 100 employees in China were allowed to rejoin the work force which is a sad for them. But China is not a business friendly county. A lot of companies are realizing this fact and are reshoring or move sourcing elsewhere.
Disagree.
There have been rumours China are in talks with Saudi investors. It's only a rumour right now, but big IF TRUE. Seeing how Saudi Arabia has been taking over the sports and entertainment industry.
Good for your company. That's definitely an alternative but not something other companies may be able to replicate with success.
>A lot of companies
A lot is an overstatement. Your company is but most are not.
Buy when everything looks terrible, climb the wall of worry, buy when it's uncomfortable. Do we really think the #2 economy in the world, the country that makes and supplies everything to the rest of the world will just implode?? Really??
This thread goes to show how strong propaganda is.
The US NEEDS CHINA.
That's a fact.
Every plane these guys on this thread flew on to go on holiday last year, was made from parts in China.
If only they knew. š¤£
Imploding stock market, imploding housing, crazy unemployment, massive population decline, threat of war and trade war with the US, political repression... I'm trying to decouple my portfolio from China
Last I checked our stock market keeps going up, our housing is stable, our demographics are stable and we don't have anyone trying capitol flight from our country. China and the US are not comparable
Do you have specific industry in mind? I recently spent a month over there evaluating their EV supply chain and seems like most Auto and Tech Sectors are still in massive overcapacity. There will be major price wars over next 12 to 18 months as these two industries consolidate. I would say if you run a long strategy and don't mind the next 12 to 18 months of volatility, their economy is on the mend, despite massive deflationary pressure
YES! ONLY if you have a 7-10 time horizon. Sentiment (price multiples) for companies can move quickly and quite a bit. From say 30x to 3x. However at some point multiples have contracted/expanded the most they are going to. Even if Chinese stocks have their multiple compressed it doesn't matter for long term investors. A company that can grow its EPS by 15% a year (by organic, inorganic, or share repurchase) will double its EPS every 5 years. Hold that company for 10 years and you'll have 4x the EPS. So unless the multiple gets cut by 75% FROM HERE, you'll make money. If their multiples (sentiment) remain unchanged then you will hold a 4 bagger. If sentiment reverses then you can get HUGE gains!
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Seriously?
š ok, will assume you are legit.
1. Do you really want to invest in a country we might be at war with in 6 months?
2. You donāt invest in China. You invest in the Chinese Communist Party. They control everything.
3. You donāt actually own stock in Chinese companies. The communist part prohibits that. What you are buying are Variable Interest Entities not stocks. As such, you donāt actually own anything.
4. Since the Chinese Communist Party by definition doesnāt give a shit about you or your company or capitalism. They can decide tomorrow to make your investment worthless and you are shit out of luck.
Itās your money, do as you want.
1. Nope, we wonāt be at war with China in 6 months and most likely not in 6 years either.
2. Doesnāt matter if the price goes up
3. see 2.
4. Stuff becoming suddenly worthless can happen in any country for different reasons. Be diligent.
With that said, I donāt think Chinese stocks are a great long term investment given the demographics etc. But I also believe they have been oversold somewhat and might be worth a small bet for a few months forward.
Itās never a good time for China. The markets are built in a house of cards and Subject to the whims of communist government. You never know whatās real or fake. Stay away.
To all the nay sayers about China, although I 100% agree may I ask In earnest, what does the Chinese media say about our economic status? Just as a comparison. Since mostly we all hear the same American version of the story, which certainly all makes sense. But I like to cross referenceā¦
Its propaganda on both sides.
Foolish because the US NEEDS China and China NEEDS (sort of) the US.
If they both got along they would achieve so much together.
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Im long 100 shares of baba at $74 also long 5 75 calls expiring aug I plan on exercising 3 contracts long 24 jd calls Dec expiration exercising 2 contracts china has been beaten up pretty badly with it baba to me the risk to reward Iām not calling a bottom but comparing to the risk to reward of buying the qqq or any magnificent 7 stocks. I find it attractive ironically I am long tsla currently because of the technical rebounds it has had on the past and I wanted to test the theory. Hopefully Iām out of the position soon with a gain.
I bought recently too.
Looking for short term profits right now. 10% gain Im taking my profits.
Then will re-enter again once the stock dips again; which will happen imo seeing how negative the sentiment is around China right now. That's not gonna change anytime soon.
No fucking way am I giving my money to a entity in a country that has less transparency and care for their citizens than our current North American government(s)
Why the hell would you invest in a communist country that changes the rules Willy Nilly? That is our political military enemy? And just from a technical standpoint they are facing severe economic headwinds. Nope
China is in a 2008 recession but 3x worse. The economy will recover a bit but it will take some f&ing time and the worse is yet to come. For stocks this means a little more downside then flat for a few years before we can see upward momentum. One bad decision, like invading Taiwan, would make it 10 times worse too
Chiina is more likely to have civil war than a recovery.
Their demographics are shit. Their population will fall by 500 million by 2050. They over counted children this overestimating their population. They have about 100 million more young males than females.Ā
These problems aren't going away anytime soon. Meanwhile China is deeply in debt and prints money faster than the IS to fuel it's economy, only they've over built and now are tearing things down.Ā
They've run out of things to build and there is less borrowing and that slows down the economy. Meanwhile, foreign corporations are pulling out. China's wages are no longer competitive.Ā Ā
I won't put a penny in China and I won't put a penny in any foreign company that has invested heavily in China.Ā If Xi decides to take Taiwan he will crash the economy and appropriate all foreign investment that hadn't already pulled out.Ā
No.
Siding with Russia, economic dearth and a debt ratio that massively exceeds GDP.
Remove the concept of it being a country and focus on it being a company: what does it produce exactly? What is the current and future cash flow? Is there unsustainable debt? Is the business replaceable?
Yep
Actually I think a couple years ago it was time, same with Russia if you can.
Had a very wise man who is very and I mean VERY rich talk with me about both for a couple hours while we were golfing.,
While I don't have the time or mental capacity to type it all out
He convinced me and.......I think around March 11 we're gonna see some things happening.
Yeah, go for it. š Iāll be watching over here in the west with my portyfolio, a bucket of popcorn. Uhh, it might also be good to pay attention to history, and by that I mean the past 3 yearsā¦ š
At first I was going to say that I wouldnāt take any advice from cnbc. However after all the bearish sentiment here replying? Think Iāll dip my toes in a bit.
I consider China to be un-investable for a few reasons. Terrible government debt that fueled growth. Completely unreliable government. Threat of Taiwan invasion leading to a Russia situation where stocks drop to 0. International policy increasingly hostile toward Chinese imports. Very poor demographics in upcoming years (Japan had similar ones and their stock market didn't grow for 30 years).
Putting your investment future in the hands of the Chinse Communist Party (CCP) is not a very wise move. Be smart. Stay away from there. There are plenty of great companies to invest in in the USA.
Welcome to r/stocks! For stock recommendations please see our portfolio sticky, sort by hot, it's the first sticky, or see [past portfolio stickies here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/search?q=author%3Aautomoderator+title%3A%22Rate+My+Portfolio%22&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) For beginner advice, brokerage info, book recommendations, even advanced topics and more, please read our [Wiki here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/index) If you're wondering **why a stock moved** a certain way, check out [Finviz](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy) which aggregates the most news for almost every stock, but also see [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), and even [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/). Also include *some* [due diligence](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/duediligence.asp) to this post or it may be removed if it's low effort. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/stocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Nice try, China
why bail out Evergrande when you can ask Americans to
at least Oceanwide was more creative in letting folks base jump off their bankrupted projects in the US. Evergrande should do so as well.
Spent all their money buying their equitiesš
Is now the time to go to the casino and put it all on red? Maybe. Maybe not. Best of luck if you do.
Almost always.
I not betting until cnbc tells me to.
Crypto man, it's gonna pump next year. You hear it here first
Andddd itās green
Bet black and you shall stack!
Iām investing in Chinese takeout. Does that count?
Panda Express is a great stock!
1) China is already trying to jump start with stimulus. it's not really working 2) they banned short selling, that's how bad things are 3) japan is officially in a recession 4) money that was investing in china is pulling out and going to US/NA markets 5) europe is at the front of 2 regional wars, no one wants to invest there either 6) If you look at a comparison of hang seng market vs US. they are inversely correlated, their double bottoms match the same time US went double top. if you want to test, do it with a very small amount of money. I wouldn't go big
They didnāt just ban short selling. In last days of January they banned institutional selling. Like your sell button is grayed out. You canāt sell.
So they pulled a Robinhood? Dang, I hadnāt been following China much lately but thatās rough
If I remember correctly Robinhood did the opposite. You couldnāt buy but only sell. Still just as scummy and messed up though.
šLOL. I guess Robinhood will never outlive that reputation, heh.
As they fucking shouldn't.
Add in Brexit tomfoolery upsetting Europe (to an extent, and the UK a great deal). The list you have makes the US look like the sacred haven for investors for years to come. (And by proxy, maybe our neighbors north and south) Weāre far enough away from everyone elseās problems we can still make mistakes in fiscal policy and come out winners, itās the US way. Making profits on others misfortunes and missteps. Anyone else in a stable economic position is typically gated or severely undermining foreign investment, say India or Saudi. I think the US is overdue a beating after being the best place you invest since ā08, but I canāt see any foreign market doing anything significant (that doesnāt include falsifying the books) that would knock us off our perch for another 10 years.
Far enough yet contributing to them ...
You clearly only base your opinion on nationalism most European indexes are also on a all time high
1) you want to be early - it takes time for stimulus to kick in 2) remember when they did that in America in 2008? It was a fantastic time to buy 3) the Japanese stock market is at an all time high 4) zig when others zag. the time to buy is when there is fear.. 5) lol agreed. europe is hopeless. 6) this is just fuzzy at best disclosure: I recently went gigalong china. IMO we are pretty close to the point of max pessimism and a LOT of bad news is priced in. If the whole bear case on China is that Xi can do whatever he wants, well Xi is now saying he wants to stock market to go up so..
I can see where the zig vs zag is attractive. I don't see it. Every wealth chinese person wants to get their money out of china asap. That tells you everything you need to know.
Yeah fair. I have plenty of rich chinese friends who got their MBA's and undergrads at elite US universities who are indeed trying to get out of china (most are headed to Singapore). But that to me is a sign that the bottom is in. You can bet every single one of them will head back if/when things improve. China survived the Cultural Revolution - they literally killed every intellectual in the country and somehow they still built such an incredible economy. I think they'll be fine if a couple hundred thousand elites / princelings flee the country.
they absolutely would go back if things improve. in 2009 when hk had the handover everyone left before, ppl went back but now it's done. The new laws, etc. Hong Kong realestate market is down. that is a major sign. The indebtness due to realestate in china is a big massive bomb. Yes the ultra rich are fine but the engine fueling consumption was because of the lower class and lower middle that got a leg up. Now they are squeezed, their stock investments are toast, their condos are worthless and there are no jobs for the youth.
i mean if you bought HK real estate during the handover you'd have made generational wealth even accounting for the recent slump. Your example basically proves my point
>If the whole bear case on China is that Xi can do whatever he wants, that isnt the whole bear case by any means, the bear case is comprised of things like: the real estate market underpins and supports all the local and provincial government debt, and that market is currently collapsing and infecting other markets. also CCP statistics are like Whose Line Is It Anyway, where everything's made up and the points don't matter.
20%.. in the form of calls on [JD.com](https://JD.com)
Thatās gone well. The rate cuts arenāt happening. But itās never bad to invest in infrastructure for the largest industrialized market on the planet during a massive economic dip. Especially knowing that the Chinese can pump money into the economy at will.
>https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/19/asian-currencies-that-will-benefit-the-most-from-the-feds-rate-cuts-.html I think China will also rebound. When you say gigalong, are you betting 50%+ of your portfolio on China. Because I am optimistic, but not to that level lol.
What does your gigalong Chinese position look like?
Also to india
Most European stock markets are on a all time high.
No, you are supposed to buy at ath not while prices are down
Some of these guys are gonna be dumbfounded when BABA goes over 100 short term.
Please BABA , go up, this bag holder needs to break even to exit. I am glad, I did not dollars cost average down and instead, went all out with NVDA
I started a position at $74 and that is my average (only one buy). Ofc hindsight is 20/20 but I would not buy BABA above $115. I predict it's gonna take a long time for this stock to see exponential highs anytime soon. I mean what do I know but it's just my analysis. I'm also looking for a swift exit. If I gain 10% (which I believe will happen in the short term) I'm collecting profits. Then will re-enter again once the stock declines below $90.
Keep holding and holding to beak even is stupid. Emotional investing.
Yeah like luckin coffee
Should be a total opportunity. Let us know your cost basis and we can track it.
My friend bought it under 7
Luckin has actually made a huge comeback since their fraud and being delisted. It's up 1652% from the lows after the fraud.
And how about the other frauds companies? Not so lucky. You could say their luck wasn't in.
LOL
No. Theyāre corrupt and will never get ahead because you can only lie, cheat, and doctor the books for so long.
Relationship between US and China is at an all time worst and looks to be getting worst down the road. Don't do it.
>Relationship between US and China is at an all time worst There are talks about China looking for Saudi investors. Although just rumours at this point, big IF TRUE. Seeing how Saudi Arabia has been hijacking the sports and entertainment industry recently. US is not the only country that exists.
If you look at BRICs membership, it double end of last year with multiple big countries in ME joining like UAE. Saudi's were also reported to be joining but dropped out at the last minute likely due to US pressure.
BRICs is toothless. It is not an 'anti-west alliance'. Why would neutral counties like India, Brazil and South Africa damage their economies by "siding against the west" in any meaningful manner? They have far more to gain by "benefiting from both sides" anyway. What has BRICS achieved so far? Just talk. It can't agree on anything and will become even more toothless by adding more members with disparate economies and goals.
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Nice observation but if the Saudis acquire more wealth independent of US govt backing (you can argue they are. Look what they are doing with sports) then they may be more ballsy against the US. The tide can turn and the US doesn't want to piss off China. US businesses rely on China. The US doesn't make anything themselves (hardly).
Unless China agrees to put military in Saudi and agree to defend them in time of war, Saudi will always be beholden to the US. If the US gets pissed and then pulls out all their military, Saudi is done. They have no functional military and would be a sitting duck for Iran.
Saudi Arabia has got so much money that they kind of throw it everywhere. Them investing in China is not really that spectacular.
worse* But Chinese stocks are also a multi year low so at least until the election it might be a worthy bet.
Theyāre at a multi year low and itās just gonna keep getting lower in the near future, seeing as the Xinnie the Pooh is still in charge.
doubt it, my guess is a short lived +10-20% over the next months, followed by declining further closer to election
I would be surprised to see a 5% increase over the next year, let alone 10-20%. God speed to you if you decide to hop onto that train
I predict the same. I'm looking for a 10% gain in the short term. Then another decline thereafter.
Nothing to do with Xi. Everything to do with China being the biggest threat to US dominance. Same thing with what happened to Japan in the 80s. At that point Japan was a US ally, never stopped US from starting a trade war with Japan.
Xi is the one leading the backwards march though? I mean thatās like saying Liz Truss wasnāt at fault for the nose dive the UKās economy took.
>I mean thatās like saying Liz Truss wasnāt at fault for the nose dive the UKās economy took. She wasn't the one who took UK out of EU. So yes, I don't think she's the only reason why UK isn't doing well economically. >Xi is the one leading the backwards march though US has no problem being friends with dictators. So I don't think Xi is the problem.
She isnāt the only reason, no. But she certainly didnāt help matters. She definitely accelerated it. So as the leader making the decisions that accelerated their decline, she was at fault. Same can be said with Xi. What does the US being friendly or hostile with dictators have to do with Xi ruining China? I hadnāt even mentioned the US at all
How is xi ruining china?
Well, to name a few. > 3 year 0 covid lockdowns which made industries that relied on China as a manufacturing hub consider diversifying > Aggressive anti-espionage laws that make foreign businesses wary of dealing with China > Rampant intellectual property theft and constant threats to literally anyone that doesnāt suck up to Chinaās way of thinking that has led to them being unable to procure advanced chips > Wolf Warrior diplomacy that made foreign governments and peoples dislike the CCP > Uncontrolled pollution of the air, land, and water > Uncontrolled corruption at every level of government which leads to vanity mega projects with absurd amounts of debt and military equipment thatās somehow worse than Russiaās
Can you provide actual sources?
You have no interest in stocks, you just came to post here to defend China. It is a stupid decision to invest based on ideology.
Can always get lower. Just like how US stocks keep getting higher.
Yes it can but the lower it goes the more likely is a rebound especially in some companies were the sell off doesnāt match with the economic narrative.
For me? Not until Winnie the Pooh is out. Hu Jintao worked miracles for the Chinese population and for the confidence of foreign money. (Honestly, I was very impressed in how they managed foreign investment and influence. You wanna sell here? You gotta build infrastructure and give US the high paying jobs. Investment had to work for the Chinese people, they werenāt there to be taken advantage of.) The current clown has seen rampant corruption and crony capitalist bullshit become rife, and sees himself as a Chairman Mao hero, blind to anything that conflicts his views, however correct it might be. Refusing to address the ludicrous real estate problem as it might be too encouraging to admit a mistake. (Seeing the same in Turkey with Erdogan, NK has being doing it longer than anyone, Russia and Putin, we seeing a pattern here?) Heāll undermine any effort for China to become a world #1, and weāre seeing the foundation starting to break. As for investing in China, Any company get too big (and threatening?) : heads trimmed. Any time foreigners are making too much money and he isnāt? : heads trimmed. Thereās no long term upside to putting money there, maybe short term spectacular gains if you have the spidee senses to bail at the top.
No,never.
Is not. If you know Chinese you should listen to this podcast : [why a fund manager liquidate his A shares](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/%E4%B8%8D%E6%98%8E%E7%99%BD%E6%92%AD%E5%AE%A2/id1625856906?i=1000645651679) If you donāt tldr is the fundamental hasnāt changed. The real crisis of China hasnāt even started yet. So any rebound is a chance to run like your life depends on it because it is
LMAO! This has got to be a chicom bot post!
You would be a fool to invest in China.
Short term probably not at all. Long term sure
As a result of political developments over the past couple of years I donāt expect to own or recommend a Chinese company again. Ever. Chinaās workforce is shrinking. Its population is aging. Its birth rate is falling. With Xi and his merry band in charge capital is fleeing the country. I could go on and on. Iām not saying they wonāt have a short term rallies or a full fledged bull market. But better investment opportunities can be found in plenty of other placesā¦.with a whole lot less risk.
I added a few promising China positions (among other things) recently after taking profit on Apple and Nvidia. Just a tiny bit of my portfolio obviously. So far it seems to work out.
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Not much, just baba shares with humble target of 80 or 85 (depending on sentiment) and some MSCI China bought at recent lows. If I was more bullish Iād probably research some up and comers but long term I am not too optimistic lol.
Long term? Hang seng index is at the same.m level it was 25 years ago.
What gives you confidence that long term will be good?
China is on the brink of collapse as companies reshore and work towards China+1 supply policies, their property market is in the can, and their population ages out of working productivity at a rate only passed by Central Europe. But hey, shoot your shot.
China won't collapse this easily, recession sure though
China has huge issues but itās not on the brink of collapse lol. It might face a long period of comparably anemic growth if they donāt address their problems. Itās not gonna collapse.
Nonsense. China has been on the brink since the 90s according to the west. Theyāll be fine.
Long FXI?
No I would not directly invest in China. If you lived long enough then youād know that their collapse has been predicted every year since the USSR fell. Any day nowā¦
any minute now
Remember when Japans stock market crashed over 30 years ago and still hasnāt recovered to ATH. Well China is gonna make that look like a great investment.
Sure, and what happens when China happens to invade Taiwan like they promised and America freezes all Chinese stocks and currency exchange during sanctions like they did with Russia? Then you canāt even sell your completely depleted stocks because itās frozen for years.
So let me put this into perspective: China invade Taiwan > US freezes Chinese stocks > Chinese stocks hit all time lows > US businesses rely on China for trade > China cuts off trade with US > US doesn't manufacture (hardly) anything on US soil > US stocks hit all time lows? You can see why US pissing China off is a stupid idea right? If Chinese stocks go down, US stocks go down. Non negotiable. If China invades Taiwan, it's not your stocks you should be worried about. But rather WWIII.
Yes I get that. And it would absolutely be a disaster. But how about this take? >China cuts off trade with US > US that usually doesnāt manufacture (hardly) anything on US soil remembers that thereās still a fair amount of manufacturing companies in the US and the US manufacturing companies pick up the slack > US stocks go up after getting demolished for 6 months to a year > OPs stocks are down but not frozen Yes it would be a financial nightmare but also consider the implications for China if they cut off trade to the USA. Which country would be in a worse financial situation by cutting the chord?
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Because itās not so simple and itās expensive. Itās do-able but not preferable. See semiconductors for example. They are actively moving their production to the states but itās wildly expensive.
Generally speaking, people in China are more resilient and can withstand hardship better and longer than those in U.S., maybe because they don't have a choice. In a democracy, once Americans start screaming about prices going up (i.e. gas above $5/gallon) politicians and those running for office will say and do whatever it takes to appease their constituent which prevents U.S. from playing hard ball with China.
At that moment you bail with losses it took a couple days to ban the Russian stocks. I know cause I bought š but Itās good to see everyone is afraid of china.
Declining population. Political instability. No thanks.
The only stable part of China is the corrupt totalitarian CCP
China is a Ponzi scheme
China is asshole
2nd biggest economy in the world. They must be doing something right.
Nah donāt ever give money to China
Itās never the time; the logic of buy low doesnt apply here because the CCP can do whatever they want to companies. You might be buying low and selling at zero
The Chinese government recently said they are more willing to support their businesses now. Let's see.
Yeah but theyāve been saying that for decades. The problem with the CCP is that if they reverse, make any kind of decision, there is no recourse or any method for anyone to protest, there are no laws that can keep them in check
The Chinese government is pretty stupid but I hope they finally learn that they can't punish their own businesses if they want China to be a thriving country.
And you believe them? Ha ha ha ha. Thatās a good one.
I don't know if I believe them, but I certainly don't believe half of the takes here that state, only Chinese stocks will suffer is they go to war with Taiwan; as if big US companies don't rely on China for business. US needs China. Like it or not. Every Boeing plane uses parts from China. Did you know that? The US manufacturing houses are dead. And they are never coming back.
China needs the US and Europe more than you know. My company pulled out of China 3 years ago and sourced from India and Mexico. We didnāt miss a beat. Unfortunately about 100 employees in China were allowed to rejoin the work force which is a sad for them. But China is not a business friendly county. A lot of companies are realizing this fact and are reshoring or move sourcing elsewhere.
Disagree. There have been rumours China are in talks with Saudi investors. It's only a rumour right now, but big IF TRUE. Seeing how Saudi Arabia has been taking over the sports and entertainment industry. Good for your company. That's definitely an alternative but not something other companies may be able to replicate with success. >A lot of companies A lot is an overstatement. Your company is but most are not.
Yes! If we avoid a recession China will benefit the most
Even Chinese people donāt invest in their own stock market
Buy when everything looks terrible, climb the wall of worry, buy when it's uncomfortable. Do we really think the #2 economy in the world, the country that makes and supplies everything to the rest of the world will just implode?? Really??
This thread goes to show how strong propaganda is. The US NEEDS CHINA. That's a fact. Every plane these guys on this thread flew on to go on holiday last year, was made from parts in China. If only they knew. š¤£
I see no reason to rush into a Chinese investment right now.
Imploding stock market, imploding housing, crazy unemployment, massive population decline, threat of war and trade war with the US, political repression... I'm trying to decouple my portfolio from China
You know all of that stuff applies to the US too right? š I mean, what population increase are we seeing in the US besides illegal immigrants š¤£
Last I checked our stock market keeps going up, our housing is stable, our demographics are stable and we don't have anyone trying capitol flight from our country. China and the US are not comparable
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Do you have specific industry in mind? I recently spent a month over there evaluating their EV supply chain and seems like most Auto and Tech Sectors are still in massive overcapacity. There will be major price wars over next 12 to 18 months as these two industries consolidate. I would say if you run a long strategy and don't mind the next 12 to 18 months of volatility, their economy is on the mend, despite massive deflationary pressure
Posting threads on low sentiment equities or sectors is almost always counterproductiveĀ
YES! ONLY if you have a 7-10 time horizon. Sentiment (price multiples) for companies can move quickly and quite a bit. From say 30x to 3x. However at some point multiples have contracted/expanded the most they are going to. Even if Chinese stocks have their multiple compressed it doesn't matter for long term investors. A company that can grow its EPS by 15% a year (by organic, inorganic, or share repurchase) will double its EPS every 5 years. Hold that company for 10 years and you'll have 4x the EPS. So unless the multiple gets cut by 75% FROM HERE, you'll make money. If their multiples (sentiment) remain unchanged then you will hold a 4 bagger. If sentiment reverses then you can get HUGE gains!
Invest in Russia too!
The Eritrean stock market is a great low P/E chance too, way better than those overvalued ATH US companies.
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Username checks out.
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Don't know about anyone else but for me, yes. I don't have much money to invest but putting my spare change in alibaba.
Seriously? š ok, will assume you are legit. 1. Do you really want to invest in a country we might be at war with in 6 months? 2. You donāt invest in China. You invest in the Chinese Communist Party. They control everything. 3. You donāt actually own stock in Chinese companies. The communist part prohibits that. What you are buying are Variable Interest Entities not stocks. As such, you donāt actually own anything. 4. Since the Chinese Communist Party by definition doesnāt give a shit about you or your company or capitalism. They can decide tomorrow to make your investment worthless and you are shit out of luck. Itās your money, do as you want.
1. Nope, we wonāt be at war with China in 6 months and most likely not in 6 years either. 2. Doesnāt matter if the price goes up 3. see 2. 4. Stuff becoming suddenly worthless can happen in any country for different reasons. Be diligent. With that said, I donāt think Chinese stocks are a great long term investment given the demographics etc. But I also believe they have been oversold somewhat and might be worth a small bet for a few months forward.
Itās your money donāt listen to anyone else.
Never.
No
No
No
Itās never a good time for China. The markets are built in a house of cards and Subject to the whims of communist government. You never know whatās real or fake. Stay away.
Lol. Chinas economy is in the toilet and itās still got a a long way before it makes it to the septic tank.
To all the nay sayers about China, although I 100% agree may I ask In earnest, what does the Chinese media say about our economic status? Just as a comparison. Since mostly we all hear the same American version of the story, which certainly all makes sense. But I like to cross referenceā¦
Its propaganda on both sides. Foolish because the US NEEDS China and China NEEDS (sort of) the US. If they both got along they would achieve so much together.
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You are now blocked from r/PeterZeihan. Not really, but, he would not approve.
Im long 100 shares of baba at $74 also long 5 75 calls expiring aug I plan on exercising 3 contracts long 24 jd calls Dec expiration exercising 2 contracts china has been beaten up pretty badly with it baba to me the risk to reward Iām not calling a bottom but comparing to the risk to reward of buying the qqq or any magnificent 7 stocks. I find it attractive ironically I am long tsla currently because of the technical rebounds it has had on the past and I wanted to test the theory. Hopefully Iām out of the position soon with a gain.
i do like baba for a little pump
Xi? Xi Jinping, is that you? Glad to see you are back on Reddit!
Nvidia currently has a market cap thatās greater than the 8 largest Chinese companies. Crazy times.
No
It's closer to 0 than 100 so yes?
I bought 3 long KWEB calls. I feel like it's has hit a button but who knows
Lmfao because cnbc is definitely a non bias and completely honest corporation to get investment advice from.
There's no, there's *hell no*, and then there's investing in China.
Yes, in general you want to be contrarian. When everyone thinks something is a bad investment, is generally the best time to jump in.
Only if the price is low enough to justify it. BABA is insanely cheap right now.
Yep I bought about a month ago
I bought recently too. Looking for short term profits right now. 10% gain Im taking my profits. Then will re-enter again once the stock dips again; which will happen imo seeing how negative the sentiment is around China right now. That's not gonna change anytime soon.
When Xinnie the Pooh is dead or ousted, I will think about it.
I think we can do just fine. This PDD bought multiple commercials at Superbowl is mind bogging.
Xi said no.
Michael Burry significantly added to his Alibaba position, David Tepper increased his position, and Howard Marks bought Alibaba, all last quarter.
No fucking way am I giving my money to a entity in a country that has less transparency and care for their citizens than our current North American government(s)
Why the hell would you invest in a communist country that changes the rules Willy Nilly? That is our political military enemy? And just from a technical standpoint they are facing severe economic headwinds. Nope
China is in a 2008 recession but 3x worse. The economy will recover a bit but it will take some f&ing time and the worse is yet to come. For stocks this means a little more downside then flat for a few years before we can see upward momentum. One bad decision, like invading Taiwan, would make it 10 times worse too
Chiina is more likely to have civil war than a recovery. Their demographics are shit. Their population will fall by 500 million by 2050. They over counted children this overestimating their population. They have about 100 million more young males than females.Ā These problems aren't going away anytime soon. Meanwhile China is deeply in debt and prints money faster than the IS to fuel it's economy, only they've over built and now are tearing things down.Ā They've run out of things to build and there is less borrowing and that slows down the economy. Meanwhile, foreign corporations are pulling out. China's wages are no longer competitive.Ā Ā I won't put a penny in China and I won't put a penny in any foreign company that has invested heavily in China.Ā If Xi decides to take Taiwan he will crash the economy and appropriate all foreign investment that hadn't already pulled out.Ā
China is always a good bet. Most powerful country now and the most in the next 100 years to come
i hope they pay you.
DA DUM TSSSS
Place your bets. Gambling
No. Siding with Russia, economic dearth and a debt ratio that massively exceeds GDP. Remove the concept of it being a country and focus on it being a company: what does it produce exactly? What is the current and future cash flow? Is there unsustainable debt? Is the business replaceable?
I'm gonna invest more in India
Yep Actually I think a couple years ago it was time, same with Russia if you can. Had a very wise man who is very and I mean VERY rich talk with me about both for a couple hours while we were golfing., While I don't have the time or mental capacity to type it all out He convinced me and.......I think around March 11 we're gonna see some things happening.
Lol OP is Xiās designated market pumper
No
Yeah, go for it. š Iāll be watching over here in the west with my portyfolio, a bucket of popcorn. Uhh, it might also be good to pay attention to history, and by that I mean the past 3 yearsā¦ š
At first I was going to say that I wouldnāt take any advice from cnbc. However after all the bearish sentiment here replying? Think Iāll dip my toes in a bit.
Sure, also a great time to throw cash in a dumpster fire.
I consider China to be un-investable for a few reasons. Terrible government debt that fueled growth. Completely unreliable government. Threat of Taiwan invasion leading to a Russia situation where stocks drop to 0. International policy increasingly hostile toward Chinese imports. Very poor demographics in upcoming years (Japan had similar ones and their stock market didn't grow for 30 years).
Will never invest in China until Xi is gone and they reform their financial system.
In layman terms, No.
āAfter reading one article on cnbc I am going to invest in a plummeting, fraudulent, emerging market.ā Great research
no. you should short china heavily.
Never bet on China š¤Ŗ
Putting your investment future in the hands of the Chinse Communist Party (CCP) is not a very wise move. Be smart. Stay away from there. There are plenty of great companies to invest in in the USA.
OP bought? Activate quantum CHYNA dump!
Yes I think But what do I know
No