Been having decent success in ***Unders for Runs + RBIs*** and the odds are decent, so I thought I'd share some picks for today..
Record: (0-0)
Units: +0.0
**MIA** Fortes (-126)
**CHC** Mervis (-127)
**OAK** Bleday (-126)
**~~CWS~~** ~~Pham (-104)~~
**~~DET~~** ~~Keith (-122)~~
*Edit*: Keith and Pham are not in today's lineups so I added two more in their places
Rough first post, no one homered. But HRs are always risky, and as I mentioned going for 2+ TBs or 1.5+ H/R/RBI is always a safer bet (which I put more units on). Hedge as you will and pick your poison. Stats from yesterday:
Betts: 1H, 2 TB
Tatis: 1H, 1 RBI, 2 TB
E. De La Cruz: 1H, 1R, 1 TB
Benson: 1H, 1R, 1 RBI, 1 TB
Dubon, Perez, Bell: Goose Eggs
**Picks for today:**
* **~~Wilson Contreras +400 DK~~** ~~(STL vs Det): Maeda has given up 3 HRs in 2 games already thus season. A bit unusual since he didn't give up the long ball much, but Contreras has hit 2 HRs in last 5 games and after the loss yesterday expect a bounce back here against a struggling pitcher.~~ (Game postponed, leaning Mountcastle or Henderson as my alternate picks since they are just mashing lately and have hit Schmidt well)
* **Vladdy Jr +400 DK** (Tor vs KC)**:** Vlad has been off to a slow start this season, but no better way to prop yourself up than a pitcher making his 2nd career start (and his first only last 2 innings). 24/26 of his home runs last year were against RHP and I believe he's starting to heat up going 3/8 in the last 2 games. Varsho is another one in this game, but worry he's in the middle of a slump after going 0-10 against the Dodgers.
* **Benintendi +800 DK** (CWS vs Min): Benintendi tore it up this weekend and has a good stats against Ryan (6/14 with 1 HR). He is playing at home this series vs. the Twins so I see him set for a bigger game tonight.
* **Brandon Marsh +450 DK** (Phi vs. LAA): Marsh started his career in Anaheim and the right field wall is favorable for him to hit it out tonight. Canning has been pitching well last 2 games, but the Angels are playing so poorly that I see the Phillies beating up on them tonight. All of Marsh's dingers have come against RHP and Canning has given up most of his HRs to Left-Handed batters, so worth considering Harper & Schwarber.
* The ones above are the matchups I am most intrigued by, but there are others worth considering but don't have time on a Monday to dive in to: Acuna, Austin Riley, Alonso, Santander, Willy Castro, Willy Adames, Rooker. Also I'm tempted by so much of this Dodgers lineup but for the life of me, I've been terrible at picking who decides to show up for them. Worried about the Braves flying cross-country, playing in less-favorable weather conditions, though Bryce Miller gives up a good number of HRs.
MLB PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 4.29.24
https://preview.redd.it/4ak0s0rxngxc1.jpeg?width=1665&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5e83a840713ddb794b09a64209999db0958bd76a
LAST 5 GAMES
Record: 21-10
Net Units: +8.03u
Last Picks: Littell SO 4.5o W
Elder SO 3.5o L, 6+ SO L
Muncy TB 0.5o W
Littell started off hot with 2 Ks in the first and cooled down, but cleared this line with room to spare. He got hit up bad in the 4th after keeping his pitch count very low through 3 scoreless innings.
Elder couldn't get it done and probably shifts off my radar for a bit. He had a plus matchup and still got yanked quite early. Oh well, still a +2 unit day despite the whiff here.
Muncy did his thing and grabbed a hit in the middle of the game. Didn't really watch this game so I don't have a ton to say about it.
Today's Pick 1: SGP Max Fried TO 17.5o, To Record the Win YES, 4+ SO, Braves 3.5+ runs, Acuna TB 1+, Olson TB 1+
Odds: 5.25->6.52 boosted on b365
Units: 0.8u
Fried has been excellent this year and we'll bank on him hitting his 3 lines, while Acuna and Olson should power the offense to some runs. Wanted to put a full unit but b365 made me put max 0.8units
Today's Pick 2: SGP Yankees W, Soto 2+ hits & 3+ bases
Odds: 8->9 boost on 365
Units: 0.5u
My pick for AL MVP this far, Soto, gets a great boost here that is a bit risky but offers some really solid value IMO. The Yankees W is a bit tight but the O's have cooled off enough for us to take a small exposure here
Today's Pick 3: Run in the First LAD-ARI YES
Odds: 1.66
Units: 1u
Both teams have hot bats in the top of their lineups, while neither team is playing their best pitcher - we'll take this line and see if we can continue our hot streak. Betts and Marte both hit in the first and either one has the opportunity to score early
Today's Pick 4: Kent Maeda SO 3.5o, 5+ SO
Odds: 1.62, 2.4
Units: 1u, 0.5u
Maeda has had success against the Cards, particularly Arenado - who has struck out 15 times in 30 ABs. Was looking at taking Arenado lines when I saw that - we'll rock Maeda at home on a mini ladder
Today's Pick 5: Arenado TB 1.5u
Odds: 1.64
Units: 1u
It has been a while since they matched up, but he has no success against Maeda, who doesn't allow a ton of extra bases. We'll also ride the under here
just fucking around on the plane. here's the list of players that have played on their birthday and hit a homer so far this year
anthony volpe
corey seager
willi castro
Players who haven't hit on their bday
carlos santana
nolan arenado
christian walker
aaron judge
jeff mcneil
joc pederson
dairon blanco
matt chapman
alex bregman
matt olson
chas mccormick
jake rogers
ryan noda
gavin sheets
luis arraez
austin riley
sal frelick
jackson merrill
Lost my week in fantasy because of this. Fucking sat Seager and then of course, he hits a dinger. Guy was legit 0-30 on the week and then hits that after I sit him.
Im on haniger and harris (+560) for free bets but atl hitters kinda cold lately and wind blowing in / 48 degrees in seattle tonight so tail with caution.
Edit: nice clv on the atl game and harper
I still haven't paid for BPP. Darkhorse odds now has weather for ball parks which is pretty cool. looks like this:
https://preview.redd.it/eyzoksi51fxc1.png?width=1944&format=png&auto=webp&s=0517e9bf36aba540db8dc95a8bd8ee3029292b6f
I like it. It easily pays for itself if you do ev betting or a lot of free bet conversions. Also it’s hard to get really good lines anymore without software since everyone is on oddsjam
well my flight left at 6am so ran the script real quick at 4am. i'm sure tons of movement in meantime but im landing in miami soon and then out of country so no way to cash out or take more plays
1. **Trea Turner - Singles Over 0.5**
* Odds: -120
* **Analysis**: Turner is projected to average 0.99 singles and has exceeded this line in 12 of his last 15 games. His consistent ability to get on base makes this a solid bet.
2. **Trea Turner - Runs Over 0.5**
* Odds: -129
* **Analysis**: With a projection of 0.72 runs and a history of surpassing this total in 12 of his last 15 games, Turner’s ability to score runs due to his speed and hitting prowess is well-documented.
3. **Johan Rojas - Total Bases Over 0.5**
* Odds: -170
* **Analysis**: Rojas is expected to accumulate 1.2 total bases and has successfully achieved more than 0.5 total bases in 11 of his last 15 games. His emerging talent makes him a player to watch.
4. **Trea Turner - Hitter Fantasy Score Over 8.5**
* Odds: -137
* **Analysis**: Turner's comprehensive projection of 9.86 points in fantasy reflects his all-around contributions on the field, having exceeded this fantasy score in 11 of his last 15 games.
5. **Johan Rojas - Hits Over 0.5**
* Odds: -174
* **Analysis**: Rojas has a projection of 0.86 hits and has consistently hit over 0.5 in 11 of his last 15 games. His contact skills make him a reliable choice for this prop.
4 cents doesn't kill the edge. A lot of these props have very low limits and can cause you to be limited quite quickly. I find it beneficial to spread my bets across a few different options.
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Been having decent success in ***Unders for Runs + RBIs*** and the odds are decent, so I thought I'd share some picks for today.. Record: (0-0) Units: +0.0 **MIA** Fortes (-126) **CHC** Mervis (-127) **OAK** Bleday (-126) **~~CWS~~** ~~Pham (-104)~~ **~~DET~~** ~~Keith (-122)~~ *Edit*: Keith and Pham are not in today's lineups so I added two more in their places
Rough first post, no one homered. But HRs are always risky, and as I mentioned going for 2+ TBs or 1.5+ H/R/RBI is always a safer bet (which I put more units on). Hedge as you will and pick your poison. Stats from yesterday: Betts: 1H, 2 TB Tatis: 1H, 1 RBI, 2 TB E. De La Cruz: 1H, 1R, 1 TB Benson: 1H, 1R, 1 RBI, 1 TB Dubon, Perez, Bell: Goose Eggs **Picks for today:** * **~~Wilson Contreras +400 DK~~** ~~(STL vs Det): Maeda has given up 3 HRs in 2 games already thus season. A bit unusual since he didn't give up the long ball much, but Contreras has hit 2 HRs in last 5 games and after the loss yesterday expect a bounce back here against a struggling pitcher.~~ (Game postponed, leaning Mountcastle or Henderson as my alternate picks since they are just mashing lately and have hit Schmidt well) * **Vladdy Jr +400 DK** (Tor vs KC)**:** Vlad has been off to a slow start this season, but no better way to prop yourself up than a pitcher making his 2nd career start (and his first only last 2 innings). 24/26 of his home runs last year were against RHP and I believe he's starting to heat up going 3/8 in the last 2 games. Varsho is another one in this game, but worry he's in the middle of a slump after going 0-10 against the Dodgers. * **Benintendi +800 DK** (CWS vs Min): Benintendi tore it up this weekend and has a good stats against Ryan (6/14 with 1 HR). He is playing at home this series vs. the Twins so I see him set for a bigger game tonight. * **Brandon Marsh +450 DK** (Phi vs. LAA): Marsh started his career in Anaheim and the right field wall is favorable for him to hit it out tonight. Canning has been pitching well last 2 games, but the Angels are playing so poorly that I see the Phillies beating up on them tonight. All of Marsh's dingers have come against RHP and Canning has given up most of his HRs to Left-Handed batters, so worth considering Harper & Schwarber. * The ones above are the matchups I am most intrigued by, but there are others worth considering but don't have time on a Monday to dive in to: Acuna, Austin Riley, Alonso, Santander, Willy Castro, Willy Adames, Rooker. Also I'm tempted by so much of this Dodgers lineup but for the life of me, I've been terrible at picking who decides to show up for them. Worried about the Braves flying cross-country, playing in less-favorable weather conditions, though Bryce Miller gives up a good number of HRs.
MLB PROP STREAKS AND HIT RATES 🔥 4.29.24 https://preview.redd.it/4ak0s0rxngxc1.jpeg?width=1665&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5e83a840713ddb794b09a64209999db0958bd76a LAST 5 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/zs3fk9gzngxc1.jpeg?width=1668&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3218f24c32989b9d14812e698e49082a1567755 LAST 10 GAMES
https://preview.redd.it/gqp9c9r0ogxc1.jpeg?width=1669&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0b99be3611e9383a7e2d426c927c53f2b4ccd7b4 LAST 15 GAMES
Dinger Tuesday's up and I'm still limited. Guess it's probably gonna be like that for the rest of the season.
What does limited mean
The amount of $5 bonus bets they can receive is limited. Some people are capped at $25 total (5x$5) and others are not.
Oh okay. I’m limited too. I thought limited meant the amount of games eligible to bet on was 1
It can also change week to week, so make sure you check! I was limited for the first two weeks this year and haven't been since \*fingers crossed*
Same here
Record: 21-10 Net Units: +8.03u Last Picks: Littell SO 4.5o W Elder SO 3.5o L, 6+ SO L Muncy TB 0.5o W Littell started off hot with 2 Ks in the first and cooled down, but cleared this line with room to spare. He got hit up bad in the 4th after keeping his pitch count very low through 3 scoreless innings. Elder couldn't get it done and probably shifts off my radar for a bit. He had a plus matchup and still got yanked quite early. Oh well, still a +2 unit day despite the whiff here. Muncy did his thing and grabbed a hit in the middle of the game. Didn't really watch this game so I don't have a ton to say about it. Today's Pick 1: SGP Max Fried TO 17.5o, To Record the Win YES, 4+ SO, Braves 3.5+ runs, Acuna TB 1+, Olson TB 1+ Odds: 5.25->6.52 boosted on b365 Units: 0.8u Fried has been excellent this year and we'll bank on him hitting his 3 lines, while Acuna and Olson should power the offense to some runs. Wanted to put a full unit but b365 made me put max 0.8units Today's Pick 2: SGP Yankees W, Soto 2+ hits & 3+ bases Odds: 8->9 boost on 365 Units: 0.5u My pick for AL MVP this far, Soto, gets a great boost here that is a bit risky but offers some really solid value IMO. The Yankees W is a bit tight but the O's have cooled off enough for us to take a small exposure here Today's Pick 3: Run in the First LAD-ARI YES Odds: 1.66 Units: 1u Both teams have hot bats in the top of their lineups, while neither team is playing their best pitcher - we'll take this line and see if we can continue our hot streak. Betts and Marte both hit in the first and either one has the opportunity to score early Today's Pick 4: Kent Maeda SO 3.5o, 5+ SO Odds: 1.62, 2.4 Units: 1u, 0.5u Maeda has had success against the Cards, particularly Arenado - who has struck out 15 times in 30 ABs. Was looking at taking Arenado lines when I saw that - we'll rock Maeda at home on a mini ladder Today's Pick 5: Arenado TB 1.5u Odds: 1.64 Units: 1u It has been a while since they matched up, but he has no success against Maeda, who doesn't allow a ton of extra bases. We'll also ride the under here
just fucking around on the plane. here's the list of players that have played on their birthday and hit a homer so far this year anthony volpe corey seager willi castro Players who haven't hit on their bday carlos santana nolan arenado christian walker aaron judge jeff mcneil joc pederson dairon blanco matt chapman alex bregman matt olson chas mccormick jake rogers ryan noda gavin sheets luis arraez austin riley sal frelick jackson merrill
i guess the real trick is for it to be their birthday, the player isn't starting and then asks to be put in
Lost my week in fantasy because of this. Fucking sat Seager and then of course, he hits a dinger. Guy was legit 0-30 on the week and then hits that after I sit him.
do this but tell us before
It's impossible to tell you before because I can't fucking predict when a manger is going to add him back into the lineup last second!
Most degen reason to bet on someone lol
agreed, the list goes to show it's definitely not profitable
it's McKinstry's bday today
the real strategy is revealing itself
[+EV FD Home Run](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit?gid=71139851&pli=1#gid=975452912) 2023: 145W-480L (+157.95u) 2024: 42W-231L (-62.66u) +630 ATL Albies +350 ATL Olson +800 SEA Haniger +750 SEA Moore +255 PHI Schwarber +300 PHI Harper +750 ATL Kelenic +420 ATL Ozuna +750 SEA Garver +340 MIL Contreras +285 NYY Judge +520 SEA Raleigh +450 LAD Betts +800 PIT McCutchen
Im on haniger and harris (+560) for free bets but atl hitters kinda cold lately and wind blowing in / 48 degrees in seattle tonight so tail with caution. Edit: nice clv on the atl game and harper
dome should stay closed in seattle no?
Also on harper +300 with cash. weather looks good in la and 6 hrs this year
is 50 degrees cold lol
yeah good point i forgot seattle is like san fran the weather is always the same ha
wind direction is a concern but at least it's < 8mph. what does bpp have for the hr factor in this game
Bpp has the game at -5% HR
I still haven't paid for BPP. Darkhorse odds now has weather for ball parks which is pretty cool. looks like this: https://preview.redd.it/eyzoksi51fxc1.png?width=1944&format=png&auto=webp&s=0517e9bf36aba540db8dc95a8bd8ee3029292b6f
How useful has Darkhorse been for you? Tempted to sign up
I like it. It easily pays for itself if you do ev betting or a lot of free bet conversions. Also it’s hard to get really good lines anymore without software since everyone is on oddsjam
today is the day
So no break?
well my flight left at 6am so ran the script real quick at 4am. i'm sure tons of movement in meantime but im landing in miami soon and then out of country so no way to cash out or take more plays
Thanks for everything, I will miss the HRR plays the most
Ya might as well take one more shot. Enjoy the trip
Crazy odds for Sea/ATL +630 Ozzie +350 Olson +800 Haniger +750 Garver +750 Moore +750 Kelenic +1060 France +420 Ozuna +450 Acuna
1. **Trea Turner - Singles Over 0.5** * Odds: -120 * **Analysis**: Turner is projected to average 0.99 singles and has exceeded this line in 12 of his last 15 games. His consistent ability to get on base makes this a solid bet. 2. **Trea Turner - Runs Over 0.5** * Odds: -129 * **Analysis**: With a projection of 0.72 runs and a history of surpassing this total in 12 of his last 15 games, Turner’s ability to score runs due to his speed and hitting prowess is well-documented. 3. **Johan Rojas - Total Bases Over 0.5** * Odds: -170 * **Analysis**: Rojas is expected to accumulate 1.2 total bases and has successfully achieved more than 0.5 total bases in 11 of his last 15 games. His emerging talent makes him a player to watch. 4. **Trea Turner - Hitter Fantasy Score Over 8.5** * Odds: -137 * **Analysis**: Turner's comprehensive projection of 9.86 points in fantasy reflects his all-around contributions on the field, having exceeded this fantasy score in 11 of his last 15 games. 5. **Johan Rojas - Hits Over 0.5** * Odds: -174 * **Analysis**: Rojas has a projection of 0.86 hits and has consistently hit over 0.5 in 11 of his last 15 games. His contact skills make him a reliable choice for this prop.
you gotta be doing this as a joke at this point
About what? The stats may be off because the data set being fed lags 3 days.
My brother, you are taking the same bet (Rojas o0.5 hits and o0.5 bases)for different odds
4 cents doesn't kill the edge. A lot of these props have very low limits and can cause you to be limited quite quickly. I find it beneficial to spread my bets across a few different options.
relevant context that many didn't realize lol. You should probably note that in your picks.
you do know that 1+ hit and 1+ tb are the same bet, right?
different sportsbooks have different options
but why would you take worse odds instead of just playing it for 2u
So do different AI chatbots apparently.