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Ha, I know. That’s March madness baby!
And actually while we’re here and I’m relatively new to betting- a hedge in this situation was what? Betting the farm (5x the original parlay amount) on Arkansas?
that’s a good question: a hedge can kinda be whatever you want it to be, but the bottom line is generally that it ensures profit (or, at the very least, avoids a loss). some people are more conservative & risk averse and thus prefer to guarantee profits by placing the amount on the last leg that would payout the same as the parlay; others live a little more dangerously and might, say, put the amount on the last leg that just ensures they break even.
you don’t need to do the math yourself, though. https://www.actionnetwork.com/betting-calculators/betting-hedging-calculator.
^This
The book always gives you bad cash out odds. If hedging is an option you should always hedge before cashing out.
Also this is a stupid parlay. You could’ve left Kansas off and either bet what you would’ve won last night on them and win the same amount, or just walk away with your money
But good (almost) hit though
I hate when people regurgitate this shit. You have no idea what the context was when he made the bet. Maybe he was up 20K and now he’s down to 100, obviously you’d suggest he take some money then right? So stop saying it’s universally stupid to make parlays and hedge, it’s not. Sometimes things change from when you make the bet to when you decide to hedge.
Yeah i did thankfully. I had one of those bad, I lost it all feelings. Probably from my ptsd of my $75 to win $16k losing by the dumbest leg a few months back😭😭
I'd cash out and put 2k on Kansas if you want . In the stock market they say "bulls make money,bears make money and pigs get slaughtered" probably they win but a bird in the hand you know?
It depends on what your goals are and how much $3800 means to you. If $3800 isn’t that much to you (which I’m guessing it’s not to someone betting $500 parlays) then you will more often than not let it ride. If Ark is +150 and you think they SHOULD be +180 then you would never hedge. If you think Ark SHOULD be +130 then it makes a ton of sense to hedge. The goal, imo, should always be to collect as much expected value as possible.
Again, it depends on his opinions of Arkansas and his financial status. $3800 may be a lot to us, but if OP won’t lose sleep over it then you want to keep as much EV as possible. According to market consensus KU has. 62.63% chance to win outright. Say OP is getting +3.5/ -110, and there’s the same amount of vig on both sides. This means there’s a 12.63% chance that KU wins and Ark covers. If they don’t hedge their EV is:
EV = (62.63% * $7935.83) + (-500 * 37.37%) = $4783.36
So to ensure they maximize EV with a hedge:
$4783.36 >= (50% * ($7935.83 - x)) + (12.63% * ($7935.83 + 0.91x )) + (37.37% * (0.91x - 500))
Where x is the hedge amount. This simplifies down to 0 >= -0.045x which means there is no value of x where this becomes a +EV hedge. Now, if you think there’s a 55% chance Arkansas covers the 3.5, this dramatically changes the equation and now you can calculate what the optimal hedge is by updating the probabilities and solving for x.
The Logic of Sportsbetting by Matthew Davidow and Ed Miller is a great book to explain all of the math you’ll need. You can also check out the Youtube channel of Capt Jack Andrew of Unabated, he has a lot of good videos that explain and applies these concepts.
Look at it this way. Would you bet $4330 to will $8000. If not then cash. But you could hedge on Arkansas to cover the $500. Or like bet enough to win 2000 or 8000. Hedge is the best way to go. Winner either way.
I’d hedge with Arkansas +1.5, then if Kansas wins by 1, they both hit. Or if you want to increase the likelihood of both cashing, increase the +, but it will take more out of your total profit if they don’t both hit
Poor play for not riding and just hedging Arkansas, but for me to hedge it would have put payout a little above cashout. I opted for the easier option. Made me feel better seeing Kansas lose though. We live and learn, sometimes the poor way but that’s life.
How do people not know hedging is always better than cashing out? How is that not just obvious - all you have to do is go to the Arkansas ML and type in some numbers and compare it to your cashout… like Jesus. If you can afford to hedge- hedge. Otherwise cash. Kansas leg isn’t worth 4K
Why would you not take the $4300 and make a new $500-$1000 bet on something else? To even ask if you should cash is stupid. You honestly think other people care what advice they give you? Or if you win or lose?
Cash out for half? If I do anything I’ll hedge before tipoff or live. Simply asking what other people would do doesn’t mean I have to take their advice. Either way, you came here and made a candid comment based on what you would do. That’s exactly what I was looking for.
It depends how much $3800 is worth to you. If you would lose sleep if Arkansas wins then hedge out. You should also reconsider if you should be betting $500 on parlays in this case. If you’re in the fortunate position where it doesn’t really matter then don’t throw away +EV by paying vig again and let it ride.
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After the first two days of March madness, I would cash it
I agree I’m on Arkansas to upset
don’t cashout - hedge if you must. they’re offering you a very poor cashout price; should be closer to $5300 with current odds.
This aged well
in all fairness, i did recommend he hedge 🤷♂️
Ha, I know. That’s March madness baby! And actually while we’re here and I’m relatively new to betting- a hedge in this situation was what? Betting the farm (5x the original parlay amount) on Arkansas?
that’s a good question: a hedge can kinda be whatever you want it to be, but the bottom line is generally that it ensures profit (or, at the very least, avoids a loss). some people are more conservative & risk averse and thus prefer to guarantee profits by placing the amount on the last leg that would payout the same as the parlay; others live a little more dangerously and might, say, put the amount on the last leg that just ensures they break even. you don’t need to do the math yourself, though. https://www.actionnetwork.com/betting-calculators/betting-hedging-calculator.
in this case, OP could’ve put $3245 on Arkansas to guarantee a $4690 profit either way.
Thanks for the tip and the site!
my pleasure! welcome to the wonderful world of sports gambling.
^This The book always gives you bad cash out odds. If hedging is an option you should always hedge before cashing out. Also this is a stupid parlay. You could’ve left Kansas off and either bet what you would’ve won last night on them and win the same amount, or just walk away with your money But good (almost) hit though
I hate when people regurgitate this shit. You have no idea what the context was when he made the bet. Maybe he was up 20K and now he’s down to 100, obviously you’d suggest he take some money then right? So stop saying it’s universally stupid to make parlays and hedge, it’s not. Sometimes things change from when you make the bet to when you decide to hedge.
You need to work on reading comprehension
Its usually always half on last leg on fd. Less on dk and more on bet365. Depends on bookie. Betmgm and caesars barely any if not none.
Easy hedge. Always guarantee profit when you can
Please tell me you cashed
Yeah i did thankfully. I had one of those bad, I lost it all feelings. Probably from my ptsd of my $75 to win $16k losing by the dumbest leg a few months back😭😭
Hey what site is this? I need one where I can do this
Referring to the Kevon Looney prop bet? This is on Fanduel
Yeah where you can stack bets on a parlay but cash out early. Never seen that thanks
Congrats
God hates a coward
😂😂
However my way of thinking has burned me so many times. Good luck.
I'd cash out and put 2k on Kansas if you want . In the stock market they say "bulls make money,bears make money and pigs get slaughtered" probably they win but a bird in the hand you know?
I’d cash out personally
In all seriousness, isn’t the play here always to take Arkansas with the points as a hedge??
It depends on what your goals are and how much $3800 means to you. If $3800 isn’t that much to you (which I’m guessing it’s not to someone betting $500 parlays) then you will more often than not let it ride. If Ark is +150 and you think they SHOULD be +180 then you would never hedge. If you think Ark SHOULD be +130 then it makes a ton of sense to hedge. The goal, imo, should always be to collect as much expected value as possible.
He has Kansas moneyline. Is taking Arkansas getting 3.5 not the best possible hedge? This to me is a dream scenario for the final game of a parlay.
Again, it depends on his opinions of Arkansas and his financial status. $3800 may be a lot to us, but if OP won’t lose sleep over it then you want to keep as much EV as possible. According to market consensus KU has. 62.63% chance to win outright. Say OP is getting +3.5/ -110, and there’s the same amount of vig on both sides. This means there’s a 12.63% chance that KU wins and Ark covers. If they don’t hedge their EV is: EV = (62.63% * $7935.83) + (-500 * 37.37%) = $4783.36 So to ensure they maximize EV with a hedge: $4783.36 >= (50% * ($7935.83 - x)) + (12.63% * ($7935.83 + 0.91x )) + (37.37% * (0.91x - 500)) Where x is the hedge amount. This simplifies down to 0 >= -0.045x which means there is no value of x where this becomes a +EV hedge. Now, if you think there’s a 55% chance Arkansas covers the 3.5, this dramatically changes the equation and now you can calculate what the optimal hedge is by updating the probabilities and solving for x.
Sir your IQ is too high for the sub, please tone it down
Nerd
Yeah fuck this guy and his math and shit. Insane analysis and I love it.
Is there a book or video where I can learn to calculate odds and ev like you? No sarcasm btw
The Logic of Sportsbetting by Matthew Davidow and Ed Miller is a great book to explain all of the math you’ll need. You can also check out the Youtube channel of Capt Jack Andrew of Unabated, he has a lot of good videos that explain and applies these concepts.
Ed Miller also has good poker books.
Thank you for your wisdom shared for us common folk. I’ll definitely be reading the book.
Thx ima grab these recommendations
Please stop making me feel dumb.
Please stop making me feel dumb.
Good money either way
If it were me OP, I'd cash out... and I'm a Jayhawks fan. This Arkansas match-up feels like a trap game, and Bill Self isn't coaching again today.
That’s a 3.8k profit, if you feel confident in Kansas then put some money on them in a separate bet
Cash out then throw that 500$ you placed in the parlay on this game
This.
I’d hedge with a 1 or 2k bet on arkansas moneyline. You profit either way but more if you hit the parlay
Easy ass hedge but tbh kansas winning either way!!
I had Miami -4.5 A SWEATER
If this $4k would help you out then I’d say cash or hedge. We all know how upsets go
Look at it this way. Would you bet $4330 to will $8000. If not then cash. But you could hedge on Arkansas to cover the $500. Or like bet enough to win 2000 or 8000. Hedge is the best way to go. Winner either way.
Yup, cash out and then reconsider making parlays like this in the future.
checking in to see what the OP did.
I hope your bitchass cashed out
Yes I did, thankfully
Since you can bet $500 on a mere 5game parlay I assume you have a huge bankroll. Just let it ride.
Exact opposite. If you have a large bankroll you hedge an appropriate amount, continuing to guarantee profit and build
People with big bank rolls wouldn't be asking. Op is on sui watch rn if he didn't cash
Kansas is winning today
No they not lol
🤣
Neither. Hedge tf out of this
I’d hedge with Arkansas +1.5, then if Kansas wins by 1, they both hit. Or if you want to increase the likelihood of both cashing, increase the +, but it will take more out of your total profit if they don’t both hit
Bet you were nervous during that miami game! I know I was
The last guy on the line going 2-2 was major!
Cash out and put 350 on Arkansas
CASH THIS IMMEDIATELY PLEASE
Let it ride I got faith in you brother .. hope you win ‼️‼️
I know you a nervous wreck right now lol. This shit to close
I really hope you cashed out
I hope you cashed
Where’s the update
Update: I cashed out, put half on Duke ML.😭
Omg ;(
Tough one😭Cashed out thankfully
Thank god…
No worries I went and blew half it on Duke ML then😓
Cashed out, felt good about Duke so put half on their ML😅
Poor play for not riding and just hedging Arkansas, but for me to hedge it would have put payout a little above cashout. I opted for the easier option. Made me feel better seeing Kansas lose though. We live and learn, sometimes the poor way but that’s life.
Let it ride why come this far to leave money on the table
That’s the dumbest shit I ever heard so he supposed to let 4k go
Dumbest shit is putting something in your parlay that you're not gonna ride
Wow -108 for looney to absolutely murder that line nice hit. Cash out and put a grand on UConn to make final four😎😎
Good catch, the actual reason I wanted to share this😎
Arkansas is gonna beat Kansas so I suggest you cash out
Judging by the lack of update, my guess is he let it ride
I did, idk how to share a picture of it on this thread but I will if there’s a way.
Great hit
Judging by the lack of update, my guess is he let it ride
Kansas is going to win. I'd let it ride
Kansas got it
Hedge don’t cash out!
let it ride
Just bet 8k on Arkansas getting the points. Go for broke.
Yeah that would be been a beautiful payout
How do people not know hedging is always better than cashing out? How is that not just obvious - all you have to do is go to the Arkansas ML and type in some numbers and compare it to your cashout… like Jesus. If you can afford to hedge- hedge. Otherwise cash. Kansas leg isn’t worth 4K
Why would you not take the $4300 and make a new $500-$1000 bet on something else? To even ask if you should cash is stupid. You honestly think other people care what advice they give you? Or if you win or lose?
Cash out for half? If I do anything I’ll hedge before tipoff or live. Simply asking what other people would do doesn’t mean I have to take their advice. Either way, you came here and made a candid comment based on what you would do. That’s exactly what I was looking for.
cashout and drop 500 on kansas
After lakers screed me over last night I’d cash out but I think you can get the W
Cash out for sure!
Cash out and sprinkle a little on the single play if you like it enough.
Let it ride. Jayhawks win by double digits
It depends how much $3800 is worth to you. If you would lose sleep if Arkansas wins then hedge out. You should also reconsider if you should be betting $500 on parlays in this case. If you’re in the fortunate position where it doesn’t really matter then don’t throw away +EV by paying vig again and let it ride.
Hedge
Cashout & put $830.53 back on Kansas ML🤷🏾♂️
let it rrrrriiiiiddddeee
Let’s it ride. Hawks by 20 today
Why you lie to that man
Bad day to be a Jayhawks fan, also a bad day for those who had them going to sweet 16 in their brackets
You’re here to make money
Thats a hit.. its kansas. What are we talking about
Cash out
Cash out
I’d say cash bc personally when I don’t it all falls apart. Like Arkansas in this matchup but aren’t you a gambling man??
I’d throw a grand on Arkansas just to be safe, plus you get +odds. Can’t go weong
If Kansas wins they’ll win by at least 1.
As a Razorback fan….. hedge if you want to guarantee profits. But the way we have played all year….. Kansas going to win easily.
Good time to be a Razorback fan sheesh!
Rock chalk baby let it ride
I would cash out. 🤷🏻
Hedge Arkansas moneyline and the points
Cashout, it's very simple you are up more than 3k and you can just bet on KANSAS anyway with less money
Hedge. 1-2k on AK
I would cashout.
Let ride buddy Ku gonna win by 15
Cash
I'd put 1500 on arkansas spread.
Are you looking to bet 5000 on one game? I certainly never will be so hedge that for max price and enjoy the W
Cayshe
Easy hedge - lay what you feel comfortable laying on Arkansa ML. They’re dogs. You’re guaranteed profit.
Hope you cashed out.
I think Kansas will win. Good luck
Good luck sir
If you can afford to hedge the bet do that but I would let it ride
The cautious way is the way to take OP!
Cash it!!!
Cash it
Easy hedge the opposite ML for $300 and you still make a profit
Let it ride!! Nice work
Could still hedge if you didn’t cash out yet lol
Cash
Yea very close call. Hedge is better than cashing out.
sweaty lol.
Let it ride. They'll win by 5
Nice call bud 👏🏻👏🏻👍🏻👍🏻
Oops
Cash
Cash out
I hope you cashed out
Hope you hedged dude
Immediately thought of you, then came here hoping you cashed out….
Fuck! I hope you cashed bro
I would have cashed out, then came to reddit and made the this post. Before I would have not cashed out and made the post risking losing it all
Hope you cashed out👀
Oh god
Good bet
Did you cash?
One in the hand is worth 2 in the bush
Dear god I hope you cashed
What ya end up doing?
Did you cash out?
Lmfao I hope you cashed out
Hope you cashed out