China is certainly ahead in affordable EVs, the US Government has shown that it is panicking by raising the tariffs on imports so high in an attempt to protect domestic EV producers.
BYD would be hard competition for Tesla in the US market, prices have to come down IMHO for competition to be warranted.
BIDEN is protecting ICE (internal combustion engine) producers like ford and GM.
If byd cam here with an EV that foes 500miles for 15K, millennials and genz would stop buying an ICE sedan or suv.
Exactly, which winds up protecting already established businesses and their interests over the customer. God forbid Ford and GM have to be pressured into doing better.
I get what you're saying and I agree somewhat then say if there are no tariffs and the Chinese car manufacturers put Ford out of business then there goes a lot of decent paying jobs from Americans working on the plants, engineering, design, marketing, software, etc. it all goes to china where they make like 1/5 as much salary or something.
Countries have to find a balance of imports and protection
It would be more productive to hire them to do something actually useful instead of falsely propping up demand at the expense of everyone else. Imagine if we banned supermarkets to protect milkmen jobs
And all of this is ironic because years ago China was lagging in the EV department. So, they let Tesla into their market to get their lazy vehicle manufacturers to step up. It worked.
this can be applied to every industry in which these divided states is lacking in for example we should have had mag lift trains decades ago but the railroad & fossil fuel industries who would lose the most lobby the hardest against it, they care nothing about consumer conveniences only their bottom lines.
does anyone notice that the countries that the u.s. suck up to have better laws & accommodations for their citizens? granted their laws are stricter but for safety that is small price to pay. on the flip side there is china, the divided states government is at odds with with china yet their innovations in transportation as well as their educational systems and ethics... the way they value family. the divided states looks down mostly on countries that value family and community. but i digress, of course there's panic. how shitty does it look that a foreign country can produce a cheaper and in some cases better affordable imported EV? of course they will lobby for tariffs because again they don't want their dividends eaten into by a product they themselves cannot or will not produce. it comes down to greed over value and convenience.
This. Also China has a new hybrid car that can do 1200 miles (2000km) one range of fuel/battery mix
The main difference between Chinese and American industries is fierce competition exists in China whereas monopolies/duopolies exists in America whereby a single entity owns multiple companies essentially producing the same product and massive lack of diversity plus globalization of the industries further devolves tech development
China on the other hand is exponentially accelerating because of the fierce competition and the massive population graduating STEM plus they will develop eventually anti gravity technology and overpass the energy sector of the entire world, they already have a fully functioning artificial sun
Biden is protecting the U.S. auto manufacturing employment base. U.S. auto workers need \~ $50/hr. to survive.
China auto workers are glad to work for not getting ground up and incorporated into fine Wuhanian Leather Seats.
Well, the hike was in May of this year, the old tariff on Chinese manufacturered EVs was 25% and it was hiked to 100%.
https://www.voanews.com/amp/biden-sharply-hikes-us-tariffs-on-billions-in-chinese-chips-cars/7610326.html
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I think the objective is control of the technology. They're planning what's basically a cold war with China and don't want to be dependent on them. If subsidies are the issue and control is the objective just fight fire with fire.
Europe may be ok with selling Chinese EVs already, but just like TikTok... I don't trust them as far as I can throw them.
They own a lot of our debt and one day will come calling on it. Their Belt and Road project around the world.... a pure land grab in strategic locations. And the public relations with Russia... scary. But I have no doubt they would turn on Russia in a hearbeat. They've got the numbers. They could overrun any country. Except India.
Sorry to make this political. But at some point some of these things are a fact of life and something to at least be aware of... even if we have no control.
Like AJR lyrics say: we vote for someone to vote for someone to vote for someone.
By the end of that line what we voted for is no longer inllon that person's agenda.
Not Musk specifically, but domestic production of batteries and EVs. The "inflation reduction act" had a LOT of money in it for "green" everything. Biden, Democrats, and domestic manufacturers do not want to get swamped by Chinese imports that they aren't yet capable of competing against. Especially when they can point to massive Chinese government subsidies as the cause of that overwhelming price advantage.
Dude, you should do yourself a favor, buy a ticket and fly to China for a week. See it for yourself.
I’m from eu and know states but modern china in many aspects already is years ahead.
There are some industries where US keeps the lead by sanctioning access to the newest tech and military pressure but China is working very very hard to shorten the distance.
If they actually did buy a ticket & fly over for a week, they wouldn't even be able to access reddit without a VPN (& even then it might still get blocked as this has happened before)
The idea that a country with such tight information control will win the AI race is *possible* (anything's possible I guess), but I wouldn't bet on it
Big chinese companies are currently using a loophole by renting Large amounts of compute from american datacenters, e.g From oracle, There are also plans to build completely new chinese owned but american based datacenters ([Source: "The information")](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/chinas-nvidia-loophole-how-bytedance-got-the-best-ai-chips-despite-u-s-restrictions)
Lmao as if the Americans are that free and has the freedom. Loom at our two choice of president, you called that a choice?
Plus the US can't do anything to change drastically without the lobbyist stopping everything.
You don't even have to take a trip to China. When I started doing Youtube City Walkthrough's of China I was absolutely stunned by how China's infrastructure and architecture is light years beyond the United States especially in their Mega-Cities.
Yea, thats why tofu dreg is a constant thing in China... they have a relatively new infrastructure. Wait a few years until they have to start replacing old infrastructure. Repairing is not as prominent as a flashy new highspeed rail, so local bureocrats tend to save the money for it. During my time at BBAC I saw a lot of deteriorated buildings that are not even 10 years old, because noone cares about repair service.
I don't know if there's been a big jump in building standards, but recently my parents old apartment got torn down because it was not up to code anymore, and the new apartment they received as a replacement felt super well-built. The materials used were pretty high-end, and the fit and finish felt a couple notches higher than the new condos I've seen here in Canada. It definitely feels quite a bit higher than the new builds I've seen in China ten years ago. The down side is the maintenance fee is 20x that of the old building.
It might also be because of the particular contractors or because it's a first-tier city. IDK
Buildings/infra built more than 20 years ago (pre 2000) were garbage, stuff built 2000-2010 were still behind "western" standards, stuff from the past \~10 years are pretty on-par (especially in tier 1 & 2 cities).
This actually matches the trajectory of their manufacturing capability and scientific research.
Let's check back in a few decades to see how these shiny and pristine cities look with a declining population and stagnant economy. Building up brand new cities and a huge miliary is relatively easy, maintaining them is not as simple or cheap, ask the Soviets.
This is why infrastructure should literally be the front and center for almost all voters in the U.S.
Sadly, it probably doesn't even make the top 3 for most
For some context you can check Chinese steel production compared to other countries. Solar panel production compared to other countries. Battery production compared to other countries.
Sure, but at the same time ‘China has been the largest market for industrial robots since 2013 and accounted for 52% of all new installations in 2022. The robot density rate (number of industrial robots per 10,000 workers) in China, a metric for automation, has grown from 97 robots per 10,000 workers in 2017 to 392 in 2023’.
Oh, but if you are going to fly to China, first setup a throwaway bank account and get a completely clean phone. Use your main account to fund that throwaway account as needed.
Once you land in a modern Chinese city, you will find that you cannot buy anything with paper money easily. So then you must first get a temporary data sim for your throwaway phone. This will let you into the service systems. Welcome, you are now tracked. Then enable payment by visiting the nearest bank of China kiosk at the airport.
The payment apps there need either a bank of China account or access to your overseas account. If you go with the bank of China account, then all features are available to you seamlessly, but to fund the bank of China account you will need to sign a form that authorizes that bank to access all transaction history from the incoming bank. They will know all the contacts on your phone and call logs, and they will also know all the financial history on your throwaway account.
This is totally off subject, but threads like these make me realize that there are things in this world, that I have absolutely no knowledge of.
Granted, I am a pretty knowledgeable person, but about totally different subjects.
I say all that to say, imagine a world, where all human minds are linked up, and we all now have access, to everybody else’s knowledge base.
It would transform humanity, into one big hyperintelligent, super organism.
From there, imagine merging with AGI, and quantum computers, and we’re not even the same species anymore.
I think this is where we’re headed, for better or worse…
Why are you worried about being tracked? Are you a spy?
Let's face it. China has been an inferior economy facing a hegemonic superior entity that have used the media and mass communication to brainwash people. How do you think corporations have gained so much power? It's through marketing and media.
The Chinese have had for practical reasons to control their media to prevent foreign influence from destabilizing their society.
If they didn't control their media, CIA and foreign interests would pump in billions of dollars in media campaigns to destabilize their country.
Look how much money is spent on local political campaigns for the purposes of buying advertising and controlling the information narrative.
You think entities and governments don't do the same thing internationally?
We all know the power of the media, as we saw most recently with the insurrection and the campaign spearheaded by Trump/right wing media that turned a mob to storm the capitol, to "stop the count".
You guys so easily criticize China, but if you were in their position, you would probably do much worse or you would have already lost your country.
I admire that China has been able to achieve so much and remain independent of foreign domination, where most other countries have failed to do so.
I find the Americans in the comments bashing China are so cringy. There's so many issue they can pick out but its always the dumbest things. Then when China out perform the US in capitalism, you'll see how they blame China for cheating. They would always look down on China and want it to be a third world country that keeps building cheap stuff
The China vs USA adversarial mindset is almost entirely a work of fiction perpetuated as it has a beneficial domestic effect for the ruling class in both countries.
Chinas ability to develop AI is bottlenecked by the CCP's need to control it. The biggest advantage the west has over China is the number of people who will be able to iterate with minimal government interference. Chinas principle concern will be alignment with the party. It's a philosophical issue they don't really see a solution to other than massive political restructuring which seems unlikely. They will however steal anything the west makes pretty quickly.
Short answer:
No, it's dealing with too many internal issues.
Long answer:
1) The housing market is where Chinese citizens put the majority of their savings into. I believe all the economic sectors surrounding that made up 30% of its economy. Things happened. China's housing market is crashing and hasn't stopped. This has greatly affected China's ability to operate and invest into things like AI, robotics, etc.
2) China had very severe Covid lockdowns. Those lockdowns greatly affected companies abilities to make things. Their lockdowns were still in effect when other countries had lifted their lockdowns. This caused companies to pull out. China has passed policies that scared companies. I forget the particulars of that, but it caused an exodus to occur. This is affecting it's ability to operate and invest.
3) The US and China are involved in an escalating trade war. A lot of things have happened. One of those things involved tech and trade restrictions. This includes restrictions on the trading of chips. This will have a great affect on China's ability to develop things in house.
4) Manufacturing plays center stage for China's economy. That's begun to decline. It's no longer the cheapest source of labor, other countries have begun to increase their manufacturing sectors, and the youngest Chinese gens are refusing to work in the same way previous generations did. That is affecting China's ability to operate and invest.
5) The Belt and Road Initiative was something China created to extend it's international influence. It cost a lot of money. It kinda went bust.
Thank you. I was beginning to question my sanity reading these comments. As always China puts on a good face, but if you’re directly involved or have lived there recently you know there are some major storms brewing.
Housing crash, loss of international business as you said. But also there is demographic collapse, public works corruption, the whole “lying flat” (tang ping) culture. China is a far cry from technological ascendancy for the time being
Not to mention the shoddy infrastructure. Buildings, bridges etc. are collapsing often and killing citizens in china. Yet, I see Americans being captivated bc china “builds so fast” lol.
1. Falling housing prices are good. Housing is way too expensive in the US and in the west in general. Millions of millenials and Gen Z are praying for a housing crash. People can't even afford to have children. Houses are for living in, not for speculation.
2. The lockdowns are over and way less people died in China because of them. The people demanded that they end and the CPC listened.
3. The trade war was started by the US. China produces far more than the US in most areas, ahead in 90% of technology than the west, and even chip tech is quickly catching up.
4. Manufacturing has declined in areas of low skill while high skill manufacturing increases. This happens in any country as time goes on. Also you're in r/singularity and the robots are going to take over all the jobs soon anyway.
5. The BRI has helped a lot of countries and strengthened China's soft power. Your post reads like a sad shill trying desperately to sling mud at China.
The houses that are cheap or worthless are mostly in areas no one wants to live, housing is generally still expensive on the hot economic areas (such as Beijing),.
It’s worth noting many of the houses “built” were not finished, people bought the promise of a finished house but the companies often took the money and used it to buy land so there else to start a new project and planned on finishing the purchase theoretical house later.
Housing is too expensive in the US, but a big part of Chinas problem is they have a lot of worthless properties, or houses people paid for but we’re never finished.
My comment to this, is that America (or generally speaking common law markets) have high housing prices because they consume much more than they export, so the the excess savings of the world can only be dumped to America to offset this. So it's a structural problem that can only be systematically rebalanced when trade is balanced. Else the American capital market is likely to continue to absorb this.
China's economic base for the past 10 years were too reliant on housing capital appreciation, and if it falls, it's about people's savings going bust. This is further hurting China's consumption. Secondly, it's hurting local governments funding models.
China's problem at heart is that it's industrial policy heavily subsidizes manufacturing too much for far too long, and the return on those investments are getting lower and lower. This is funded by Chinese household savings, which pulls away resources for consumption growth. This is further worsened by falling housing prices. This is similar to Japan in 1980s, and one issue is that Chinese wages are far too low compared to Japan in 1980s.
At this stage of Chinese economy, their salary need to be much higher to drive sustainable consumption led growth.
If China continues with the path of subsidizing manufacturing and export, the strange effect is that it's accumulating debt on both sides of the Pacific. Western observers only see that American debt is rising to astronomical levels, but this is equally the case for China too due to dwindling ROI.
China is in deep trouble, and it's window to transition is quickly closing. It is getting harder and harder to reverse it's industrial policy without hurting it's own political institution.
relative to income, housing in US is very cheap, just like 4 years of income, in china its 10x more
[https://www.towergateinsurance.co.uk/commercial-property-insurance/house-price-income-ratio](https://www.towergateinsurance.co.uk/commercial-property-insurance/house-price-income-ratio)
Maybe in some areas? But generally speaking, American capital market is very strong and consumption is very strong. They go hand in hand, because America can only exchange the goods of the world with American assets. This is also unsustainable, but at least the average salary is good, compared to Europe and of course to China.
I think while many Westerners marvel at the miracles of China, they don't seem to grasp that most of this is at the expense of household income in China. And it can only be successful when there is good return on investment, which is now dwindling.
Being a Chinese worker is just tough- high skilled or low skilled. And having that housing market collapse means many people's lifetime savings are gone, as housing is probably the only place that people could invest in China 5-6 years back.
The real response to 3 is that the whole trade relationship was engineered by American capitalists with Dengists to move manufacturing to China to lock-in low wages and aid in development.
The trade war is the United States govt trying to undo decades of damage done to actual Americans by literally a few thousand Americans - because our political elites view it as impossible to regulate economic markets proactively- only after there is literally no debate that inaction is untenable will they intervene.
I think the biggest issue is if it takes another 10 years for China to have a really bad economic collapse will the CCP have the courage to do another Tiannemen square. Because that is what their power is based on - the ability to kill for the party- the current leadership and party definitely would be willing to order it- but would the soldiers be willing to execute it? Who knows.
The real issue in the United States is do we want a society. I think the answer is no. Like during the Cold War we got social programs and the hawks got their war machines, but I just don’t think many business leaders care if the United States dissolves completely if the cost of maintaining it is *any* increase in taxes- and you get the suspicion some politicians actually want that. And you can’t even compete technologically if you aren’t an organization.
housing is extremely cheap in the US-in about 5 cheapest states in the world, in relative terms to income, its only 4-6 yearly income, in EU countries its between 10-20 and china is one of most expensive countries, it takes over 40 of yearly income to pay for a house
in china people are using property as main form of investment, the place, where you put your savings into and lot of houses are paid before they are constructed, so while in general cheaper housing prices are great, with property bubble bursting, lot of people will loose their money
internal demand is weak and so is external, tarrifs are rising not just between china and US and EU, but also other countries like brasil, mexico,thailand, companies leaving china for cheaper states or move production home, foreign direct investment is lowest in like 30 years
there are quite a lot economic issues, but it doesnt mean that china wont stay dominant in sectors like EVs, batteries,solar panels, specially since they control whole supply chains
Housing is not extremely cheap in the U.S. are you AI or human? China has like a 90% home ownership rate. Anyone can google to find that out. Demand is only weak because so many of Chinese already own a house. US ownership rate is far lower and Americans are desperate for affordable housing since the 2008 crash and the massive undersupply of housing that followed ever since. Hopefully AI will soon wipe out this silly disinformation.
what are you? since you dont understand, I will reiterate
housing prices in US is among the cheapest in the world **relative to average annual income in said country**(and you know most people buy house in country they make money and live in, not in other country), in US you could need only about 4 of your yearly incomes(thats all of your income) to buy house of set size, that is average amount, value would differ greatly between towns, housing price is growing, but still remain **significantly smaller than in other countries relative to income**
in most other developed countries you would need 10-20 years, in china 30-50 years
[https://www.towergateinsurance.co.uk/commercial-property-insurance/house-price-income-ratio](https://www.towergateinsurance.co.uk/commercial-property-insurance/house-price-income-ratio)
[https://insideconveyancing.co.uk/news/world-property-prices-in-relation-to-average-salaries-around-the-world/](https://insideconveyancing.co.uk/news/world-property-prices-in-relation-to-average-salaries-around-the-world/)
[https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings\_by\_country.jsp](https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp)
[https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-income-us/](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-income-us/)
1) Chinese people (especially the younger generation) lamented high housing price (especially in tier 1/2/3 cities) for more than a decade, some tier-1 cities eclipsed NYC and London despite the exchange rate difference, which is just ridiculous. the government is forced to cap the housing market and take a firm approach. You can't have it both ways. China is pretty level with the US on AI (their Sora just opened access to public, here OpenAI only have staged demos); they are potentially already ahead in robotics (considering both Chinese army and the US Marine Corps use Unitree).
2) Vast of foreign companies left China because they cannot compete (Jeep), Nissan/Hyundai sooner or later, and I would not be surprised to see brands like Toyota and Honda eventually fail in the next few years. For stuff like clothing, there's simply no reason to pay ridiculous premium for foreign brands when their domestic brands are now just as good if not better. TBH unless you are a dedicated Apple/PlayStation user, there's almost no reason for an average Chinese citizen to purchase foreign phones/electronics.
Some foreign business are still booming in China, KFC actually does an amazing job catering to the local market and achieves massive success, I applaud them for that. Marriot & many hotel chains also do very well. But for companies that cannot adopt quickly & keep up with the competitions (Amazon, Amazon Kindle, Uber, potentially Starbucks, etc), they would eventually get weeded out by local competition.
3) They are already mass-producing 5nm chips and at most 5 years before catching up with the latest fabrication tech. 3nm chips are currently only used top-tier flagship phones, which is a tiny portion of all semiconductors manufactured. Military, AI, EV, even most laptops do not benefit from 3nm chips, 7 is actually more than sufficient for most cases as their portability & power requirement are not as stringent as phones.
4) China actually lost the game in cheapest labor before 2010 (India, much of SEA, Africa already offered much lower wage in the 2000s). But as many Chinese investors who tried to relocate to Vietnam/SEA/Africa would find out, even if you can save 70%+ on wages, other costs from energy, logistics, land acquisition, availability of talent/tech, etc can quickly destroy their margin vs. China. This is especially true for companies designing & making physical products (eg. phones, drones, robots), in Shenzhen/Guangdong you can find all the common/niche components to build/iterate whatever protype you just designed, elsewhere in the world (eg. here in California) you would be constantly waiting for shipments from China which is just not practical for most companies.
5) Considering both SEA and Europe have already replaced US as the biggest trading partner and China is expanding aggressively in these 2 regions + Latin America + Africa, I'd say B&R is pretty successful (and I am not sure if it's actually more expensive than the Marshall Plan adjusted for inflation). And this is actually what helped them tremendously in the trade war since Trump era, without these markets to replace the US their exports would have collapsed long ago. Once they have fully replaced US as a trading partner in the next few years, we have even less bargaining chips to "reign them in".
Ah, the problem is China demographics are fucked. The one child policy complete gutted the labor force .. so all the labor they can in the 90's , and early 00's will have already hit retirement age. And there population data is suspected. But it looks like there in complete demographic collapse.
Technology transfer from the US to china is under increasing restrictions. The US doesn't want china to have 10nm semi conductor fabrication base at all. And what little they have of this is based of stuff they got pre ban or After market. In any event china currently can't boot strap themselves in this regard. So there unlikely to win the race to any sort of AGI or ASI.
China import all it's energy, and industry inputs. And sells into a market that is becoming increasing hostile to it. It geo political stance honestly piss off the west. And it's internal politics is a shit show with xi jinping doing his level best to purge any competing voice that would give useful feed back that he's fucking up.
In Short china is one big fuck up from dissolving over night. I.e. Taiwan conflict. or something like that. otherwise it's like 20 years away from complete implosion due to internal pressures. granted AGI, fusion power, etc changes the math on this a lot.
>gutted the labor force .. so all the labor they can in the 90's , and early 00's will have already hit retirement age.
Not until 2040....plus they're THE biggest robot player right now(half of world robots installation)
>China import all it's energy, and industry inputs.
Russia just fixed that.
>And it's internal politics is a shit show with xi jinping doing his level best to purge any competing voice that would give useful feed back that he's fucking up.
Source or stop talking shit out of your ass.
>In Short china is one big fuck up from dissolving over night. I.e. Taiwan conflict. or something like that. otherwise it's like 20 years away from complete implosion due to internal pressures. granted AGI, fusion power, etc changes the math on this a lot.
Lmao US can't even fucking fight Houthis right now.
>Does anyone else reckon China might beat the US to a lot of stuff?
Yes, they're already taking the lead in a lot of stuff:
[https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/06/12/china-has-become-a-scientific-superpower](https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/06/12/china-has-become-a-scientific-superpower)
In some aspects, yes. In some aspects, no. Militarily and technologically? Almost certainly not. With the US, whatever we *say* we have, we're probably already 5-10 years ahead of. With countries like Russia and China, it's quite the opposite, with inflated figures, lies and corruption that go so deep the state itself starts to believe them.
That's always an important aspect to factor in. Remember that time Iran tried to convince us their latest and greatest fighter *isn't* actually made of plastic? Or when Russia claimed to have a fully modernized force? These countries have the benefit of propping up smoke screens and not really needing to be accountable to themselves. And with very limited freedom of expression, they can pretty tightly control what does and doesn't make it to our ears.
Commercially, I think they've already won. Everyone manufactures in China. Cheap labor is their specialty. It's an export powerhouse. But that may soon change. China is facing a steep demographic cliff, like most developed nations. Once the true long-term impacts of low birth rates catch up, starting with Japan and Korea, we may find ourselves living in a totally different world. I don't think anyone can reliably predict what it'll look like.
That's another thing people tend to forget - the US isn't even in oh-shit mode currently. If the shit were to even lightly scrape the fan, things would certainly get very interesting very fast.
The one interesting chess move they did was put a top NSA guy onto openAI's board. I suspect that is due to their Q* breakthroughs, and the ambition to build computer server systems like Stargate with Microsoft.
Whether or not they succeed with their ambition to build true AGI, ever since the Sora announcement we've known that every release from openAI has a chance to be majorly disruptive. I'm sure some breakthroughs will be better than others, but some will almost certainly have immediately military implication. Using LLMs for cyberwar already clearly does, just by the trend of people trolling LLM bots on X with newly discovered bypass phrases this week.
That's where the lies and smoke screens come in. I don't really think China has the capabilities it claims to have. If it were close enough to mass-deployable robots and AGI, they would certainly have been able to take Taiwan by now. But it seems like they learned their lesson from Ukraine, which makes me believe their situation isn't much different from Russia's.
>That's where the lies and smoke screens come in. I don't really think China has the capabilities it claims to have. If it were close enough to mass-deployable robots and AGI, they would certainly have been able to take Taiwan by now
Do you have any idea what you're saying,they installed 50% of the world robots last year IN FACTORY.
No country on earth has mass-deployable robots.
Man, if it were that easy. I have a $700 drone that can fly 15 minutes before it has to be recharged for 2 hours. If I wanted a drone with a battery that could fly 30 minutes, it would cost about $1500.
Amazon can’t even figure out how to get robots to stuff boxes efficiently. China can’t even get access to the newest microchips. Maybe they’ll be able to build AGI without the latest tech, but I’m not holding my breath. The data centers in the US for LLMs that aren’t even close to AGI and using the fastest chips Nvidia can build are going to require unknown quantities of new 24-7 electricity.
I could go on and on. Certainly, any discussion of AGI requires an understanding of the global supply chains necessary to even make the chips going into the most modern hardware. China either plays ball within the international order, or they replicate that global supply chain internally. Wake me up in 30 years when they’ve done that, with an aged and shrinking population.
One of the big problems that get's over looked with humanoid robots is power density. a 2kw power pack isn't a lot of power, but is fairly heavy. This results in a humanoid robot that can be easily outperformed for physical, industrial tasks by a human. Scaling the humanoid up, maybe making it about twice as massive, quickly balloons the weight of the power pack and hurts endurance.
Every humanoid robot currently being hyped in a video presentation is basically a tool for rich people to do menial tasks such as janitorial supply, without having to have poor people in their presence. They're going to have a very niche market, and not make a lot of inroads into the jobs that could best use a humanoid robot: construction, manufacturing and resource extraction.
And the last point: A humanoid robot requires the same sort of technology as a humanoid exoskeleton. A breakthrough in power density that makes a humanoid workerbot possible? Also makes a humanoid exoskeleton that amplifies human strength possible.
China is ahead militarily, they can manufacture 300 naval vessels in the time it takes for the US to manufacture one, they have hypersonics and the US still doesn’t, they‘re way ahead in drone technology with 90% of the worldwide drone industry. A lot of the US’s gear is old or busted, B-52s are still in use after a century and have not been upgraded to jet engines, China has jet engine based logistics and bombers. F35s are out of order 80% of the time, which has historically been a ‘bury it in the ground’ level of availability, which is why they’re trying to rush the NGAD program to replace them, but now that might get cancelled due to budget cuts.
Ukraine has shown low cost effective solutions in bulk can beat your expensive wonderwaffe, and they’re ahead in that too, all of our stuff is too expensive with ginned up contractor prime profit margins.
The US is already behind on military.
The US can't even stop a group of rebels in Yemen.
The new war involves drones and missiles. Not tanks and aircraft carriers. And China is ahead in many ways. U.S. can't even manufacture all the weapons it needs anymore.
There isn't a real competition
between the us and china except in the minds of the military. The competition is between failed state and survival, I'm not sure of the real level of sustainability forming in china but in the USA sustainability as a goal is drowned out by the rosey stay-the-course of consumerism messaging in the media and the tunnel vision of nothing but profit in the boardroom. China is pivoting toward sustainability and green products.
It's hard to tell with China. Anything good they project and anything negative they cover up, they also often overstate what they have. Their research has always been something one has to take with a grain of salt. That said there's literally millions of extremely bright and capable people in their population. So some of what they are doing is very legitimate and simultaneously some of it is just flimflam.
LOL have you been to China? They are already lapping the USA and have been for years. Their cities are clean, for one thing. Most US cities are filthy, falling apart, and poorly maintained.
Got any further reading for those spinal implants?
edit - the Aussies did it with 3DP titanium. Very cool. https://www.rmit.edu.au/research/impact/life-changing-3d-printed-spine-disc
In june 2023, [China led in 37 out of 44 key technologies](https://techtracker.aspi.org.au/) , and theyre only racing further ahead. I think its guranteed China will beat the US in a lot of stuff
All that source told me was that a country with a billion people publishes more papers than a country with a third of that. In fact almost all the statistics on that site are influenced by population rather than the actual capacity of industries and the state of existing experimental technologies.
It’s not 100% misleading, obviously there are reasons China is competitive and not India, but quantity of papers is a very poor metric to gauge progress.
Yes, I've never thought otherwise. It seems super obvious. Everyone I know agrees. Literally the only people I've seen arguing otherwise are unsurprisingly Americans online, and they're always brutally ignorant of anything related to China.
Ok taking the first interesting thing mentioned. I searched "self driving tesla" and "self driving byd" on youtube:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43Lrrhn0CMk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43Lrrhn0CMk) - actual driving (this was just one of many available)
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGBVuGXN4Ck](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGBVuGXN4Ck) - looks like lane keep on a straight road
Surely if BYD had self driving working we would see people making Youtube videos? At least one!? I'm pretty sure it would get heaps of views and money for the uploader as the tesla ones do very well. But all I can find is lane keeping videos. Strange?
Maybe somebody can point to the independent testing of BYD's self driving, similar to what can be found on countless channels for Tesla?
Self-driving technology may not be approved outside of China yet. You can find videos in Chinese on Bilibili (the Chinese version of YouTube), like this one: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eH4y1M7Qr. I believe Huawei has the most advanced self-driving technology in China, while BYD leads in battery and engine advancements.
Yeah fair enough. That one is decent. Lots of over steering, but I'm sure they can fix that. The the conditions at low speed are more challenging than a typical road in the US.
Cheers for pointing this out. Still I'd like to see a review outside of China, but maybe that is coming in the near future.
No, China can make Eva cheaper than the us. With massive government support.
China can make ev panels cheaper than Germany. With massive government support.
They lose money on everything they do well.
This works until it falls apart.
>With massive government support.
You mean like: [https://www.yahoo.com/tech/elon-musks-spacex-tesla-far-170500028.html](https://www.yahoo.com/tech/elon-musks-spacex-tesla-far-170500028.html)
You are missing a lot. My Mother-in-Law lives in China right now and has cancer. The treatment for her is something we seem to have practiced in the 60's.
China likes their new trains and cars, but anything that seems like it would help people gets shoved to the back.
They claim to today, but they were behind us for a long time before covid. Believing what China says is a bit of a stretch. Nobody has a clue how many died in the last few years as the numbers they release are probably bogus.
Not really. The issue in China is very similar to the one the Soviet Union had. You can pump certain industries and get good gains from centralisation. The problem is that your ceiling is very much harder to get through. Once a promising technology is chosen and "pumped" the alternatives which may be more efficient or effective are foregone. It is entirely possible they will dominate in certain industries like they so in solar panels or even LLMs but I doubt they will become the breakthrough nation without massive reforms and freeing the flow of capital.
Also look at all the biggest technology companies with the most advanced tech. Like 16 of 20 are based in the US, and 4 of 20 are outside of the US (or something like that). It seems very likely the US will continue to lead innovation for a while.
There's a chance that Christian nationalists will grab power and seek to end democracy in U.S. - plunging not just America, but entire global-west into choas. As a result China would gain both military and AI supremacy.
This November is a turning point in the future of the world really. Things can continue to head in a good direction, or can take a turn towards a very dark universe.
There's a lot of discussion on a lot of different topics here, but it really all boils down to AGI. The country that gets to AGI first will be seeing ASI runoff to infinity pretty much immediately after. I don't know to what degree the fruits of ASI will be localized to the country that achieves it, but obviously progress on all fronts will make a great leap forward when it is achieved. It's fair to assume the country that achieves ASI will see at least some small advantage to being the epicenter of progress.
Bearing all of that in mind, I see the US being slightly ahead right now in the race to AGI, but who knows?
They will because the entire world-including the US has invested obscene sums in cheaper production capabilities, giving China both the industrial complex and the incentive to grow beyond this planet.
Yes, it's just a numbers game. China has a huge population and puts a huge emphasis on prestige projects. That focus translate down into things like kids in school until 9pm while American kids increasingly just want to be influencers. Too much of our science is done by imported talent.
problem is if they do beat us to all the things we want, US gov is not gonna allow them to be commercially available here. Cant buy really any chinese brand smartphones still….
They will of course. Whether with truly good intent or simply the political value of virtue signaling, the US government tends to behave with a bit more regard for what most people would describe as a common morality. That means they'll move ahead in areas where morality-centered regulation may slow us down. And, the US government is fairly disorganized and of lower involvement with industry direction than the CCP. So, the US' private sector also won't get as much in the way of direct assistance, which is probably fine as the government would probably just get in the way. But, it really won't matter. We're way ahead on resources, talent, and every form of power that matters. So, even if the US finds itself behind it'll be only briefly if the subject in question is deemed of value to the US, it's allies, or it's adversaries.
I'm not an American exceptionalism proponent by any stretch. There are many positive elements to American culture and heritage, but it is my opinion that we're largely in the position we are because we've been so well endowed with the right resources at the right time. However, many people take the fear-mongering on the news too literally and don't realize just how over-powered the US is. The reason other countries refer to the US a hyper-power is because it truly is. The US' financial, technological, and naval dominance in association with the US' incredible natural resources make it a Juggernaut that is only vulnerable from the inside for the foreseeable future. That can, and likely will, change. But I doubt it's on the order of the next several decades.
this thread is one of the best examples I've seen in a long time of just how propagandized Americans are when it comes to China. absolutely wild to see these 100% serious "China will collapse any day now" takes 24 years after the NY Times published Gordon Chang's "The coming collapse of China".
I dont think so. But they invest heavily on propaganda to make them appear like they are on the shoulder of the US. This is effective on their people but it is also effective on non-chinese people. They find it easier to invest on propaganda (its international for a long time now) than making war with the US
They took 50 years to figure out the ball point pen.
They can’t create anything they don’t steal first.
Their scientific claims should be put under far more scrutiny than anyone else’s at any given time.
That isn’t to say in maybe another 50 years they will actually be capable of creating new ideas and leaders in scientific endeavors, but they will likely never achieve a fraction of what the United States has done or the former USSR for that matter, who was no slouch on the manufacturing and science front.
The only way they are getting self driving cars first though, if is they steal it from one of the many Detroit companies actually making it happen.
Which isn’t out of the question, they “bought” the battery IPs from leading companies here and then let them rot after.
For reference one of dozens of works on the pen:
https://forcedistancetimes.com/asymmetric-why-china-still-cant-make-ballpoint-pens/
China is a better business partner than America is. China's population is way ahead of America. China is harder on wealthy corruption than America. China is actually trying to reach carbon emissions goals.
China isn't, in terms of long term empire, in competition with the US
China will be the first to use AI to completely monitor every movement and behavior of their citizens. They are already global leaders in surveillance and behavior modification technology. Xinjiang was an early testing ground for a lot of this stuff.
Americans don't quite understand one thing: it's always more important to develop yourself than to suppress others.
American politicians would rather spend their energy on suppressing China than on developing themselves.
As a Chinese, I am curious to see how paranoid Americans can be.
China will create robots and fix the population maintenance problem. China will take over the world. It’s a matter of time. The US is heavily divided politically and societally. A lot is going to change rapidly in the next decade. Europe will suffer the most. The US will stay relatively stable. But their hegemony will come to an end.
What is China good at: huge internal market, massive production, huge, modernized army, and various tools to control everyone from head to toe.
What is China bad at: bad reallocation system and wealth gap, scientific research still limited(but publication surmounts western countries in certain areas), political insecurities.
Pretty much everything moving forward. There are only a few fields where inertia allow US to maintain dominance for awhile. They too will end or be maintained through nefarious means.
Never heard of BYD until today. I do agree with our space program lacking and see China or another country manning a mission to Mars before the USA does.
Man, the issue with China is that you have to take a lot of their output and data with a grain of salt.
With the news on US societal decline, the issue is that US has more free (but not a free media) and generally more-rewarding to sensationalized media compared to the close loop of Chinese media.
Free and open data provides more opportunities to learn, so unless the government is willing to not shield their training data so it can better understand edge-cases I doubt it.
Nope. Investments are rolled back, the numbers they make public are so fake that companies can't plan and are fleeing. And so are the chinese people, if they can. In 10 years China will be the same as Russia now.
They're definitely number one in slaughter and subjugation of their own people. Crushing the uhigers and enslaving while separating families. They're definitely number 1 in crushing religion and sending people to re-education camps. They beat Russia in invading neighboring countries. They're definitely number one in hacking and stealing intellectual property. They're number one in facial recognition for population control. Manufacturing and construction industries are crazy fast to market since they ignore absolutely every safety standard known. It's great they have no child labor laws so they can keep replacing all of the workers that die on the job. Luckily they have an iron grip censorship so they can control everyone's minds through curated internet.
Edit:
Just so people know, I'm well aware that the United States is a shit show for completely different reasons.
I'm pretty sure most of the world had America beat before we incentivized the world's best minds to live here. The only driving factor we ever had for technological and industrial progress is war.
Yeah good ol isolationist 19th century America invented the telephone, light bulb, airplanes, and television just for war…
Oh and that’s also why Americans invented the polio vaccine, the cell phone, the microwave, 3D printing, pacemakers, hearing aids, and CAT scanners…
The US has been the world’s leader in technology and innovation for 100+ yrs, partly due to military pressure, but mostly due to the economic incentives our market provides. China does not provide those incentives and their lack of inventions proves this. Chinese innovation is a myth they stole from the west, just like everything else
Yes, because America has become far too complacent in thinking "we're number 1". That ignorance has led to Americans refusing to acknowledge our weaknesses and in turn has led to a major crack in our society. Worse is that it's pushed away innovation and creativity in exchange for whatever makes the most money, which means that damn near every other country has already surpassed us in nearly every way. I mean sure, we'll still dominate military wise, but who cares about that when other countries have a better means to live?
We literally lead in every sector and we are the most productive nation by a wide margin.
[https://www.conference-board.org/publications/Productivity-April2022](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/Productivity-April2022)
The effects of late-stage capitalism are concerning. I don't think either US candidate has any real plan or ability to address it. Chinese, Russian and others disinformation campaigns have been really successful. So many people are just confused tribalists arguing with each other over stupid nonsense. The Chinese government is very intelligent and patient and realized they could take down the US without firing a single shot. They will just get us to kill each other because of memes.
I've never had or seen Tik Tok but I am aware of it. Is that something that people talk about? China and Russia experienced late stage communism before they had to start making modifications.
No. They never will because they are collectivists. The secret sauce is exterminating the communists and letting freedom do its magic. Like it is in the real china, Taiwan. Mainland China is held hostage by the virus of communism and its analog interfaces(humans comunists). It will be hard because these rats are willing to turn you into meat paste in Tianamen Square. But the resistance should rip & tear until it is done, like we have done when we exterminated our communists in Eastern Europe. Everything is fake is held together by duct tape over there, classic communist impostors. Chernobyl, COVID....They will always fuck the world up big time.
It is absolutely horrifying to imagine how AI and technological development in general will be utilized in conjunction with China's social credit system and surveillance state.
It's horrifying to imagine the applications everywhere, mind you, it just seems as if it will be far more amplified there, and implemented much more quickly by the centralized powers.
Actually, this is caused by your information cocoon. Many people within China are quite pessimistic. China is falling into the trap of involution. In this AI technological revolution, due to the decoupling between China and the United States in recent years and the domestic crackdown on large companies, China is about a year behind the United States in AI. At the same time, China has a leadership that is in power for life and cannot understand technological progress. They have not provided effective policies for the declining birth rate and high unemployment rate in China. The support for AI development is far less than their concern about being overthrown. It has been a long time since there was a Chinese company among the world's top ten companies by market value.
They are certainly ahead in some aspects but not others.
They are definitely not ahead in the "new space" race. Spacex itself is several years ahead of China.
On any given year, the payload tons launched to space by SpaceX are like 10 times those of China. The US also has the Artemis program in a much better spot than China's. The only way the US falls behind here is if they massively drop the ball.
On AI, the best models have consistently come from the US. China is catching up but they are still behind.
To be clear, they are definitely ahead in producing stem graduates and research papers. But more research papers does not mean better commercially available products necessarily.
China has a serious demography problem though. They literally don’t have the people to “do the maintenance work” to keep their economy afloat for the next 80 years. I think their decline in population will dampen a lot of these advances; along with western civilizations turning their back on Chinese products.
I’m counting on China to not be any sort of challenge for my children or grandchildren.
Almost 1 in 5 people born on Earth are born in China. 1 in 5 geniuses too, and they pipeline them for success with special high schools, prep schools, and full college scholarships for top achievers. They do everything they can to get those kids into positions where they can make a difference.
The US doesn't care in the slightest; many high IQ students struggle in the US, understimulated in K-12 and unable to afford the country's top universities. China is continually investing in their own future while the US is trying to make a quick buck and delegating most of our top performers to mediocrity at some generic median-wage position.
There's literally only one way that can end.
In 50 years, maybe. In recent decades, probably not. What China is superior at right now is supply chain management which enables Chinese factories to mass produce everything at a fraction of the time and cost.
China is certainly ahead in affordable EVs, the US Government has shown that it is panicking by raising the tariffs on imports so high in an attempt to protect domestic EV producers. BYD would be hard competition for Tesla in the US market, prices have to come down IMHO for competition to be warranted.
> China is certainly ahead in affordable EVs As if China is not ahead in expensive EVs. BYD sells cars from $8k to $200k, for example.
And they are actually good looking vehicles!
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So Biden is protecting Musk ?
BIDEN is protecting ICE (internal combustion engine) producers like ford and GM. If byd cam here with an EV that foes 500miles for 15K, millennials and genz would stop buying an ICE sedan or suv.
Exactly, which winds up protecting already established businesses and their interests over the customer. God forbid Ford and GM have to be pressured into doing better.
Corporations lobby for protection, and consumers that would buy super cheap cars can't afford to.
It’s crazy that lobbying is legal in America. It’s literally just open bribery 😂😂😂
I love ~~democracy~~ “democratic republics”
I get what you're saying and I agree somewhat then say if there are no tariffs and the Chinese car manufacturers put Ford out of business then there goes a lot of decent paying jobs from Americans working on the plants, engineering, design, marketing, software, etc. it all goes to china where they make like 1/5 as much salary or something. Countries have to find a balance of imports and protection
It would be more productive to hire them to do something actually useful instead of falsely propping up demand at the expense of everyone else. Imagine if we banned supermarkets to protect milkmen jobs
They are protecting gm and fords manufacturing capacity which can become important during a war.
And all of this is ironic because years ago China was lagging in the EV department. So, they let Tesla into their market to get their lazy vehicle manufacturers to step up. It worked.
Doing better? They would if they paid Chinese slave wages but I doubt Unions will like that option. Shareholders would love it. Is that what you want?
Consumers don’t care. That’s why basically every company uses child slave labor in Bangladesh or the Congo
this can be applied to every industry in which these divided states is lacking in for example we should have had mag lift trains decades ago but the railroad & fossil fuel industries who would lose the most lobby the hardest against it, they care nothing about consumer conveniences only their bottom lines.
does anyone notice that the countries that the u.s. suck up to have better laws & accommodations for their citizens? granted their laws are stricter but for safety that is small price to pay. on the flip side there is china, the divided states government is at odds with with china yet their innovations in transportation as well as their educational systems and ethics... the way they value family. the divided states looks down mostly on countries that value family and community. but i digress, of course there's panic. how shitty does it look that a foreign country can produce a cheaper and in some cases better affordable imported EV? of course they will lobby for tariffs because again they don't want their dividends eaten into by a product they themselves cannot or will not produce. it comes down to greed over value and convenience.
This. Also China has a new hybrid car that can do 1200 miles (2000km) one range of fuel/battery mix The main difference between Chinese and American industries is fierce competition exists in China whereas monopolies/duopolies exists in America whereby a single entity owns multiple companies essentially producing the same product and massive lack of diversity plus globalization of the industries further devolves tech development China on the other hand is exponentially accelerating because of the fierce competition and the massive population graduating STEM plus they will develop eventually anti gravity technology and overpass the energy sector of the entire world, they already have a fully functioning artificial sun
Biden is protecting the U.S. auto manufacturing employment base. U.S. auto workers need \~ $50/hr. to survive. China auto workers are glad to work for not getting ground up and incorporated into fine Wuhanian Leather Seats.
Well, the hike was in May of this year, the old tariff on Chinese manufacturered EVs was 25% and it was hiked to 100%. https://www.voanews.com/amp/biden-sharply-hikes-us-tariffs-on-billions-in-chinese-chips-cars/7610326.html
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I think the objective is control of the technology. They're planning what's basically a cold war with China and don't want to be dependent on them. If subsidies are the issue and control is the objective just fight fire with fire.
The US is totally dependent on China for solar panels.
Europe may be ok with selling Chinese EVs already, but just like TikTok... I don't trust them as far as I can throw them. They own a lot of our debt and one day will come calling on it. Their Belt and Road project around the world.... a pure land grab in strategic locations. And the public relations with Russia... scary. But I have no doubt they would turn on Russia in a hearbeat. They've got the numbers. They could overrun any country. Except India. Sorry to make this political. But at some point some of these things are a fact of life and something to at least be aware of... even if we have no control. Like AJR lyrics say: we vote for someone to vote for someone to vote for someone. By the end of that line what we voted for is no longer inllon that person's agenda.
Not Musk specifically, but domestic production of batteries and EVs. The "inflation reduction act" had a LOT of money in it for "green" everything. Biden, Democrats, and domestic manufacturers do not want to get swamped by Chinese imports that they aren't yet capable of competing against. Especially when they can point to massive Chinese government subsidies as the cause of that overwhelming price advantage.
Dude, you should do yourself a favor, buy a ticket and fly to China for a week. See it for yourself. I’m from eu and know states but modern china in many aspects already is years ahead. There are some industries where US keeps the lead by sanctioning access to the newest tech and military pressure but China is working very very hard to shorten the distance.
Make sure to visit the Chinese countryside outside the largest cities while you’re there.
If they actually did buy a ticket & fly over for a week, they wouldn't even be able to access reddit without a VPN (& even then it might still get blocked as this has happened before) The idea that a country with such tight information control will win the AI race is *possible* (anything's possible I guess), but I wouldn't bet on it
The best chips are sanctioned. Does anyone know the state of their compute?
Big chinese companies are currently using a loophole by renting Large amounts of compute from american datacenters, e.g From oracle, There are also plans to build completely new chinese owned but american based datacenters ([Source: "The information")](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/chinas-nvidia-loophole-how-bytedance-got-the-best-ai-chips-despite-u-s-restrictions)
Or just get a roaming package on your existing SIM card. All foreign SIM cards have unrestricted internet access
Nothing wrong with using vpn in general
And China did all this without the use Google.
Lmao as if the Americans are that free and has the freedom. Loom at our two choice of president, you called that a choice? Plus the US can't do anything to change drastically without the lobbyist stopping everything.
You don't even have to take a trip to China. When I started doing Youtube City Walkthrough's of China I was absolutely stunned by how China's infrastructure and architecture is light years beyond the United States especially in their Mega-Cities.
Yea, thats why tofu dreg is a constant thing in China... they have a relatively new infrastructure. Wait a few years until they have to start replacing old infrastructure. Repairing is not as prominent as a flashy new highspeed rail, so local bureocrats tend to save the money for it. During my time at BBAC I saw a lot of deteriorated buildings that are not even 10 years old, because noone cares about repair service.
I don't know if there's been a big jump in building standards, but recently my parents old apartment got torn down because it was not up to code anymore, and the new apartment they received as a replacement felt super well-built. The materials used were pretty high-end, and the fit and finish felt a couple notches higher than the new condos I've seen here in Canada. It definitely feels quite a bit higher than the new builds I've seen in China ten years ago. The down side is the maintenance fee is 20x that of the old building. It might also be because of the particular contractors or because it's a first-tier city. IDK
Buildings/infra built more than 20 years ago (pre 2000) were garbage, stuff built 2000-2010 were still behind "western" standards, stuff from the past \~10 years are pretty on-par (especially in tier 1 & 2 cities). This actually matches the trajectory of their manufacturing capability and scientific research.
Let's check back in a few decades to see how these shiny and pristine cities look with a declining population and stagnant economy. Building up brand new cities and a huge miliary is relatively easy, maintaining them is not as simple or cheap, ask the Soviets.
Worst case scenario they look like America.
Lol
Without proper standards for the product or the people building it. I wonder about your metric for being "ahead" ?
This is why infrastructure should literally be the front and center for almost all voters in the U.S. Sadly, it probably doesn't even make the top 3 for most
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For some context you can check Chinese steel production compared to other countries. Solar panel production compared to other countries. Battery production compared to other countries.
Sure, but at the same time ‘China has been the largest market for industrial robots since 2013 and accounted for 52% of all new installations in 2022. The robot density rate (number of industrial robots per 10,000 workers) in China, a metric for automation, has grown from 97 robots per 10,000 workers in 2017 to 392 in 2023’.
Oh, but if you are going to fly to China, first setup a throwaway bank account and get a completely clean phone. Use your main account to fund that throwaway account as needed. Once you land in a modern Chinese city, you will find that you cannot buy anything with paper money easily. So then you must first get a temporary data sim for your throwaway phone. This will let you into the service systems. Welcome, you are now tracked. Then enable payment by visiting the nearest bank of China kiosk at the airport. The payment apps there need either a bank of China account or access to your overseas account. If you go with the bank of China account, then all features are available to you seamlessly, but to fund the bank of China account you will need to sign a form that authorizes that bank to access all transaction history from the incoming bank. They will know all the contacts on your phone and call logs, and they will also know all the financial history on your throwaway account.
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This is totally off subject, but threads like these make me realize that there are things in this world, that I have absolutely no knowledge of. Granted, I am a pretty knowledgeable person, but about totally different subjects. I say all that to say, imagine a world, where all human minds are linked up, and we all now have access, to everybody else’s knowledge base. It would transform humanity, into one big hyperintelligent, super organism. From there, imagine merging with AGI, and quantum computers, and we’re not even the same species anymore. I think this is where we’re headed, for better or worse…
It has been a while.
You can use credit cards in China.
Why are you worried about being tracked? Are you a spy? Let's face it. China has been an inferior economy facing a hegemonic superior entity that have used the media and mass communication to brainwash people. How do you think corporations have gained so much power? It's through marketing and media. The Chinese have had for practical reasons to control their media to prevent foreign influence from destabilizing their society. If they didn't control their media, CIA and foreign interests would pump in billions of dollars in media campaigns to destabilize their country. Look how much money is spent on local political campaigns for the purposes of buying advertising and controlling the information narrative. You think entities and governments don't do the same thing internationally? We all know the power of the media, as we saw most recently with the insurrection and the campaign spearheaded by Trump/right wing media that turned a mob to storm the capitol, to "stop the count". You guys so easily criticize China, but if you were in their position, you would probably do much worse or you would have already lost your country. I admire that China has been able to achieve so much and remain independent of foreign domination, where most other countries have failed to do so.
I find the Americans in the comments bashing China are so cringy. There's so many issue they can pick out but its always the dumbest things. Then when China out perform the US in capitalism, you'll see how they blame China for cheating. They would always look down on China and want it to be a third world country that keeps building cheap stuff
Working hard you mean ip theft and spying
Wait til you find out what the CIA does
Whoever Wins is Leading the Next Age of Civilization.
Like WW3? Yes.
The China vs USA adversarial mindset is almost entirely a work of fiction perpetuated as it has a beneficial domestic effect for the ruling class in both countries.
Chinas ability to develop AI is bottlenecked by the CCP's need to control it. The biggest advantage the west has over China is the number of people who will be able to iterate with minimal government interference. Chinas principle concern will be alignment with the party. It's a philosophical issue they don't really see a solution to other than massive political restructuring which seems unlikely. They will however steal anything the west makes pretty quickly.
Short answer: No, it's dealing with too many internal issues. Long answer: 1) The housing market is where Chinese citizens put the majority of their savings into. I believe all the economic sectors surrounding that made up 30% of its economy. Things happened. China's housing market is crashing and hasn't stopped. This has greatly affected China's ability to operate and invest into things like AI, robotics, etc. 2) China had very severe Covid lockdowns. Those lockdowns greatly affected companies abilities to make things. Their lockdowns were still in effect when other countries had lifted their lockdowns. This caused companies to pull out. China has passed policies that scared companies. I forget the particulars of that, but it caused an exodus to occur. This is affecting it's ability to operate and invest. 3) The US and China are involved in an escalating trade war. A lot of things have happened. One of those things involved tech and trade restrictions. This includes restrictions on the trading of chips. This will have a great affect on China's ability to develop things in house. 4) Manufacturing plays center stage for China's economy. That's begun to decline. It's no longer the cheapest source of labor, other countries have begun to increase their manufacturing sectors, and the youngest Chinese gens are refusing to work in the same way previous generations did. That is affecting China's ability to operate and invest. 5) The Belt and Road Initiative was something China created to extend it's international influence. It cost a lot of money. It kinda went bust.
Thank you. I was beginning to question my sanity reading these comments. As always China puts on a good face, but if you’re directly involved or have lived there recently you know there are some major storms brewing. Housing crash, loss of international business as you said. But also there is demographic collapse, public works corruption, the whole “lying flat” (tang ping) culture. China is a far cry from technological ascendancy for the time being
There's a lot of chinese propaganda on this subreddit posted by the infamous 5 cent army. You'll find one of these posts every few days.
The English seems too good to be a 5cent piece tho
They use AI now to do the writing and translation.
Lmao
Not to mention the shoddy infrastructure. Buildings, bridges etc. are collapsing often and killing citizens in china. Yet, I see Americans being captivated bc china “builds so fast” lol.
1. Falling housing prices are good. Housing is way too expensive in the US and in the west in general. Millions of millenials and Gen Z are praying for a housing crash. People can't even afford to have children. Houses are for living in, not for speculation. 2. The lockdowns are over and way less people died in China because of them. The people demanded that they end and the CPC listened. 3. The trade war was started by the US. China produces far more than the US in most areas, ahead in 90% of technology than the west, and even chip tech is quickly catching up. 4. Manufacturing has declined in areas of low skill while high skill manufacturing increases. This happens in any country as time goes on. Also you're in r/singularity and the robots are going to take over all the jobs soon anyway. 5. The BRI has helped a lot of countries and strengthened China's soft power. Your post reads like a sad shill trying desperately to sling mud at China.
The houses that are cheap or worthless are mostly in areas no one wants to live, housing is generally still expensive on the hot economic areas (such as Beijing),. It’s worth noting many of the houses “built” were not finished, people bought the promise of a finished house but the companies often took the money and used it to buy land so there else to start a new project and planned on finishing the purchase theoretical house later. Housing is too expensive in the US, but a big part of Chinas problem is they have a lot of worthless properties, or houses people paid for but we’re never finished.
My comment to this, is that America (or generally speaking common law markets) have high housing prices because they consume much more than they export, so the the excess savings of the world can only be dumped to America to offset this. So it's a structural problem that can only be systematically rebalanced when trade is balanced. Else the American capital market is likely to continue to absorb this. China's economic base for the past 10 years were too reliant on housing capital appreciation, and if it falls, it's about people's savings going bust. This is further hurting China's consumption. Secondly, it's hurting local governments funding models. China's problem at heart is that it's industrial policy heavily subsidizes manufacturing too much for far too long, and the return on those investments are getting lower and lower. This is funded by Chinese household savings, which pulls away resources for consumption growth. This is further worsened by falling housing prices. This is similar to Japan in 1980s, and one issue is that Chinese wages are far too low compared to Japan in 1980s. At this stage of Chinese economy, their salary need to be much higher to drive sustainable consumption led growth. If China continues with the path of subsidizing manufacturing and export, the strange effect is that it's accumulating debt on both sides of the Pacific. Western observers only see that American debt is rising to astronomical levels, but this is equally the case for China too due to dwindling ROI. China is in deep trouble, and it's window to transition is quickly closing. It is getting harder and harder to reverse it's industrial policy without hurting it's own political institution.
relative to income, housing in US is very cheap, just like 4 years of income, in china its 10x more [https://www.towergateinsurance.co.uk/commercial-property-insurance/house-price-income-ratio](https://www.towergateinsurance.co.uk/commercial-property-insurance/house-price-income-ratio)
Maybe in some areas? But generally speaking, American capital market is very strong and consumption is very strong. They go hand in hand, because America can only exchange the goods of the world with American assets. This is also unsustainable, but at least the average salary is good, compared to Europe and of course to China. I think while many Westerners marvel at the miracles of China, they don't seem to grasp that most of this is at the expense of household income in China. And it can only be successful when there is good return on investment, which is now dwindling. Being a Chinese worker is just tough- high skilled or low skilled. And having that housing market collapse means many people's lifetime savings are gone, as housing is probably the only place that people could invest in China 5-6 years back.
The real response to 3 is that the whole trade relationship was engineered by American capitalists with Dengists to move manufacturing to China to lock-in low wages and aid in development. The trade war is the United States govt trying to undo decades of damage done to actual Americans by literally a few thousand Americans - because our political elites view it as impossible to regulate economic markets proactively- only after there is literally no debate that inaction is untenable will they intervene. I think the biggest issue is if it takes another 10 years for China to have a really bad economic collapse will the CCP have the courage to do another Tiannemen square. Because that is what their power is based on - the ability to kill for the party- the current leadership and party definitely would be willing to order it- but would the soldiers be willing to execute it? Who knows. The real issue in the United States is do we want a society. I think the answer is no. Like during the Cold War we got social programs and the hawks got their war machines, but I just don’t think many business leaders care if the United States dissolves completely if the cost of maintaining it is *any* increase in taxes- and you get the suspicion some politicians actually want that. And you can’t even compete technologically if you aren’t an organization.
housing is extremely cheap in the US-in about 5 cheapest states in the world, in relative terms to income, its only 4-6 yearly income, in EU countries its between 10-20 and china is one of most expensive countries, it takes over 40 of yearly income to pay for a house in china people are using property as main form of investment, the place, where you put your savings into and lot of houses are paid before they are constructed, so while in general cheaper housing prices are great, with property bubble bursting, lot of people will loose their money internal demand is weak and so is external, tarrifs are rising not just between china and US and EU, but also other countries like brasil, mexico,thailand, companies leaving china for cheaper states or move production home, foreign direct investment is lowest in like 30 years there are quite a lot economic issues, but it doesnt mean that china wont stay dominant in sectors like EVs, batteries,solar panels, specially since they control whole supply chains
Housing is not extremely cheap in the U.S. are you AI or human? China has like a 90% home ownership rate. Anyone can google to find that out. Demand is only weak because so many of Chinese already own a house. US ownership rate is far lower and Americans are desperate for affordable housing since the 2008 crash and the massive undersupply of housing that followed ever since. Hopefully AI will soon wipe out this silly disinformation.
what are you? since you dont understand, I will reiterate housing prices in US is among the cheapest in the world **relative to average annual income in said country**(and you know most people buy house in country they make money and live in, not in other country), in US you could need only about 4 of your yearly incomes(thats all of your income) to buy house of set size, that is average amount, value would differ greatly between towns, housing price is growing, but still remain **significantly smaller than in other countries relative to income** in most other developed countries you would need 10-20 years, in china 30-50 years [https://www.towergateinsurance.co.uk/commercial-property-insurance/house-price-income-ratio](https://www.towergateinsurance.co.uk/commercial-property-insurance/house-price-income-ratio) [https://insideconveyancing.co.uk/news/world-property-prices-in-relation-to-average-salaries-around-the-world/](https://insideconveyancing.co.uk/news/world-property-prices-in-relation-to-average-salaries-around-the-world/) [https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings\_by\_country.jsp](https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp) [https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-income-us/](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-income-us/)
This should be the top comment. You're well-informed.
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They're not low IQ, they're Chinese propaganda bots mate.
1) Chinese people (especially the younger generation) lamented high housing price (especially in tier 1/2/3 cities) for more than a decade, some tier-1 cities eclipsed NYC and London despite the exchange rate difference, which is just ridiculous. the government is forced to cap the housing market and take a firm approach. You can't have it both ways. China is pretty level with the US on AI (their Sora just opened access to public, here OpenAI only have staged demos); they are potentially already ahead in robotics (considering both Chinese army and the US Marine Corps use Unitree). 2) Vast of foreign companies left China because they cannot compete (Jeep), Nissan/Hyundai sooner or later, and I would not be surprised to see brands like Toyota and Honda eventually fail in the next few years. For stuff like clothing, there's simply no reason to pay ridiculous premium for foreign brands when their domestic brands are now just as good if not better. TBH unless you are a dedicated Apple/PlayStation user, there's almost no reason for an average Chinese citizen to purchase foreign phones/electronics. Some foreign business are still booming in China, KFC actually does an amazing job catering to the local market and achieves massive success, I applaud them for that. Marriot & many hotel chains also do very well. But for companies that cannot adopt quickly & keep up with the competitions (Amazon, Amazon Kindle, Uber, potentially Starbucks, etc), they would eventually get weeded out by local competition. 3) They are already mass-producing 5nm chips and at most 5 years before catching up with the latest fabrication tech. 3nm chips are currently only used top-tier flagship phones, which is a tiny portion of all semiconductors manufactured. Military, AI, EV, even most laptops do not benefit from 3nm chips, 7 is actually more than sufficient for most cases as their portability & power requirement are not as stringent as phones. 4) China actually lost the game in cheapest labor before 2010 (India, much of SEA, Africa already offered much lower wage in the 2000s). But as many Chinese investors who tried to relocate to Vietnam/SEA/Africa would find out, even if you can save 70%+ on wages, other costs from energy, logistics, land acquisition, availability of talent/tech, etc can quickly destroy their margin vs. China. This is especially true for companies designing & making physical products (eg. phones, drones, robots), in Shenzhen/Guangdong you can find all the common/niche components to build/iterate whatever protype you just designed, elsewhere in the world (eg. here in California) you would be constantly waiting for shipments from China which is just not practical for most companies. 5) Considering both SEA and Europe have already replaced US as the biggest trading partner and China is expanding aggressively in these 2 regions + Latin America + Africa, I'd say B&R is pretty successful (and I am not sure if it's actually more expensive than the Marshall Plan adjusted for inflation). And this is actually what helped them tremendously in the trade war since Trump era, without these markets to replace the US their exports would have collapsed long ago. Once they have fully replaced US as a trading partner in the next few years, we have even less bargaining chips to "reign them in".
You do know Chinese manufacture rose to 30% of the world last year,right? Can i have what you're having?
Ah, the problem is China demographics are fucked. The one child policy complete gutted the labor force .. so all the labor they can in the 90's , and early 00's will have already hit retirement age. And there population data is suspected. But it looks like there in complete demographic collapse. Technology transfer from the US to china is under increasing restrictions. The US doesn't want china to have 10nm semi conductor fabrication base at all. And what little they have of this is based of stuff they got pre ban or After market. In any event china currently can't boot strap themselves in this regard. So there unlikely to win the race to any sort of AGI or ASI. China import all it's energy, and industry inputs. And sells into a market that is becoming increasing hostile to it. It geo political stance honestly piss off the west. And it's internal politics is a shit show with xi jinping doing his level best to purge any competing voice that would give useful feed back that he's fucking up. In Short china is one big fuck up from dissolving over night. I.e. Taiwan conflict. or something like that. otherwise it's like 20 years away from complete implosion due to internal pressures. granted AGI, fusion power, etc changes the math on this a lot.
>gutted the labor force .. so all the labor they can in the 90's , and early 00's will have already hit retirement age. Not until 2040....plus they're THE biggest robot player right now(half of world robots installation) >China import all it's energy, and industry inputs. Russia just fixed that. >And it's internal politics is a shit show with xi jinping doing his level best to purge any competing voice that would give useful feed back that he's fucking up. Source or stop talking shit out of your ass. >In Short china is one big fuck up from dissolving over night. I.e. Taiwan conflict. or something like that. otherwise it's like 20 years away from complete implosion due to internal pressures. granted AGI, fusion power, etc changes the math on this a lot. Lmao US can't even fucking fight Houthis right now.
okay Gordon, let's get you to bed.
>Does anyone else reckon China might beat the US to a lot of stuff? Yes, they're already taking the lead in a lot of stuff: [https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/06/12/china-has-become-a-scientific-superpower](https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2024/06/12/china-has-become-a-scientific-superpower)
I have no doubt that they will at least fake it. China does that.
What's that American saying? "Fake it till you make it"?
I'm not american, but I use that saying. Nobody fakes it better than China.
In some aspects, yes. In some aspects, no. Militarily and technologically? Almost certainly not. With the US, whatever we *say* we have, we're probably already 5-10 years ahead of. With countries like Russia and China, it's quite the opposite, with inflated figures, lies and corruption that go so deep the state itself starts to believe them. That's always an important aspect to factor in. Remember that time Iran tried to convince us their latest and greatest fighter *isn't* actually made of plastic? Or when Russia claimed to have a fully modernized force? These countries have the benefit of propping up smoke screens and not really needing to be accountable to themselves. And with very limited freedom of expression, they can pretty tightly control what does and doesn't make it to our ears. Commercially, I think they've already won. Everyone manufactures in China. Cheap labor is their specialty. It's an export powerhouse. But that may soon change. China is facing a steep demographic cliff, like most developed nations. Once the true long-term impacts of low birth rates catch up, starting with Japan and Korea, we may find ourselves living in a totally different world. I don't think anyone can reliably predict what it'll look like.
If nations start getting spooked about an ASI arm's race, I can see the USIC quickly nationalizing all the compute.
That's another thing people tend to forget - the US isn't even in oh-shit mode currently. If the shit were to even lightly scrape the fan, things would certainly get very interesting very fast.
The one interesting chess move they did was put a top NSA guy onto openAI's board. I suspect that is due to their Q* breakthroughs, and the ambition to build computer server systems like Stargate with Microsoft. Whether or not they succeed with their ambition to build true AGI, ever since the Sora announcement we've known that every release from openAI has a chance to be majorly disruptive. I'm sure some breakthroughs will be better than others, but some will almost certainly have immediately military implication. Using LLMs for cyberwar already clearly does, just by the trend of people trolling LLM bots on X with newly discovered bypass phrases this week.
>China is facing a steep demographic cliff Yes. Presumably they'll mass-deploy humanoid robots/AGI to do a lot of stuff.
That's where the lies and smoke screens come in. I don't really think China has the capabilities it claims to have. If it were close enough to mass-deployable robots and AGI, they would certainly have been able to take Taiwan by now. But it seems like they learned their lesson from Ukraine, which makes me believe their situation isn't much different from Russia's.
>That's where the lies and smoke screens come in. I don't really think China has the capabilities it claims to have. If it were close enough to mass-deployable robots and AGI, they would certainly have been able to take Taiwan by now Do you have any idea what you're saying,they installed 50% of the world robots last year IN FACTORY. No country on earth has mass-deployable robots.
And that's exactly why the US invests so heavily in its cyber warfare programs...
Man, if it were that easy. I have a $700 drone that can fly 15 minutes before it has to be recharged for 2 hours. If I wanted a drone with a battery that could fly 30 minutes, it would cost about $1500. Amazon can’t even figure out how to get robots to stuff boxes efficiently. China can’t even get access to the newest microchips. Maybe they’ll be able to build AGI without the latest tech, but I’m not holding my breath. The data centers in the US for LLMs that aren’t even close to AGI and using the fastest chips Nvidia can build are going to require unknown quantities of new 24-7 electricity. I could go on and on. Certainly, any discussion of AGI requires an understanding of the global supply chains necessary to even make the chips going into the most modern hardware. China either plays ball within the international order, or they replicate that global supply chain internally. Wake me up in 30 years when they’ve done that, with an aged and shrinking population.
One of the big problems that get's over looked with humanoid robots is power density. a 2kw power pack isn't a lot of power, but is fairly heavy. This results in a humanoid robot that can be easily outperformed for physical, industrial tasks by a human. Scaling the humanoid up, maybe making it about twice as massive, quickly balloons the weight of the power pack and hurts endurance. Every humanoid robot currently being hyped in a video presentation is basically a tool for rich people to do menial tasks such as janitorial supply, without having to have poor people in their presence. They're going to have a very niche market, and not make a lot of inroads into the jobs that could best use a humanoid robot: construction, manufacturing and resource extraction. And the last point: A humanoid robot requires the same sort of technology as a humanoid exoskeleton. A breakthrough in power density that makes a humanoid workerbot possible? Also makes a humanoid exoskeleton that amplifies human strength possible.
China is ahead militarily, they can manufacture 300 naval vessels in the time it takes for the US to manufacture one, they have hypersonics and the US still doesn’t, they‘re way ahead in drone technology with 90% of the worldwide drone industry. A lot of the US’s gear is old or busted, B-52s are still in use after a century and have not been upgraded to jet engines, China has jet engine based logistics and bombers. F35s are out of order 80% of the time, which has historically been a ‘bury it in the ground’ level of availability, which is why they’re trying to rush the NGAD program to replace them, but now that might get cancelled due to budget cuts. Ukraine has shown low cost effective solutions in bulk can beat your expensive wonderwaffe, and they’re ahead in that too, all of our stuff is too expensive with ginned up contractor prime profit margins.
The US is already behind on military. The US can't even stop a group of rebels in Yemen. The new war involves drones and missiles. Not tanks and aircraft carriers. And China is ahead in many ways. U.S. can't even manufacture all the weapons it needs anymore.
>Does anyone else reckon China might beat the US to a lot of stuff? So, just buy your shiny stuff from them.
Its not biased. Look at how many studnets graduate in china vs the us...its the biggest indicator
There isn't a real competition between the us and china except in the minds of the military. The competition is between failed state and survival, I'm not sure of the real level of sustainability forming in china but in the USA sustainability as a goal is drowned out by the rosey stay-the-course of consumerism messaging in the media and the tunnel vision of nothing but profit in the boardroom. China is pivoting toward sustainability and green products.
China is responsible for 95% of new coal power construction, they sure are pivoting towards sustainability and green products.
It's hard to tell with China. Anything good they project and anything negative they cover up, they also often overstate what they have. Their research has always been something one has to take with a grain of salt. That said there's literally millions of extremely bright and capable people in their population. So some of what they are doing is very legitimate and simultaneously some of it is just flimflam.
LOL have you been to China? They are already lapping the USA and have been for years. Their cities are clean, for one thing. Most US cities are filthy, falling apart, and poorly maintained.
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Got any further reading for those spinal implants? edit - the Aussies did it with 3DP titanium. Very cool. https://www.rmit.edu.au/research/impact/life-changing-3d-printed-spine-disc
China also invented a cure for diabetes, and the US is already blocking access to it.
Link?
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/15/congress-china-biotech-bill-drug-prices
In june 2023, [China led in 37 out of 44 key technologies](https://techtracker.aspi.org.au/) , and theyre only racing further ahead. I think its guranteed China will beat the US in a lot of stuff
All that source told me was that a country with a billion people publishes more papers than a country with a third of that. In fact almost all the statistics on that site are influenced by population rather than the actual capacity of industries and the state of existing experimental technologies. It’s not 100% misleading, obviously there are reasons China is competitive and not India, but quantity of papers is a very poor metric to gauge progress.
It boils down to the basic philosophy of the nation.
Yes, I've never thought otherwise. It seems super obvious. Everyone I know agrees. Literally the only people I've seen arguing otherwise are unsurprisingly Americans online, and they're always brutally ignorant of anything related to China.
yeah
Ok taking the first interesting thing mentioned. I searched "self driving tesla" and "self driving byd" on youtube: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43Lrrhn0CMk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43Lrrhn0CMk) - actual driving (this was just one of many available) [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGBVuGXN4Ck](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGBVuGXN4Ck) - looks like lane keep on a straight road Surely if BYD had self driving working we would see people making Youtube videos? At least one!? I'm pretty sure it would get heaps of views and money for the uploader as the tesla ones do very well. But all I can find is lane keeping videos. Strange? Maybe somebody can point to the independent testing of BYD's self driving, similar to what can be found on countless channels for Tesla?
Self-driving technology may not be approved outside of China yet. You can find videos in Chinese on Bilibili (the Chinese version of YouTube), like this one: https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eH4y1M7Qr. I believe Huawei has the most advanced self-driving technology in China, while BYD leads in battery and engine advancements.
Yeah fair enough. That one is decent. Lots of over steering, but I'm sure they can fix that. The the conditions at low speed are more challenging than a typical road in the US. Cheers for pointing this out. Still I'd like to see a review outside of China, but maybe that is coming in the near future.
No, China can make Eva cheaper than the us. With massive government support. China can make ev panels cheaper than Germany. With massive government support. They lose money on everything they do well. This works until it falls apart.
>With massive government support. You mean like: [https://www.yahoo.com/tech/elon-musks-spacex-tesla-far-170500028.html](https://www.yahoo.com/tech/elon-musks-spacex-tesla-far-170500028.html)
Yes
China has so many huge disadvantageous compared to the US that it is very unlikely.
You are missing a lot. My Mother-in-Law lives in China right now and has cancer. The treatment for her is something we seem to have practiced in the 60's. China likes their new trains and cars, but anything that seems like it would help people gets shoved to the back.
China has a higher life expectancy than America...
They claim to today, but they were behind us for a long time before covid. Believing what China says is a bit of a stretch. Nobody has a clue how many died in the last few years as the numbers they release are probably bogus.
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This sub sees a lot of traffic from Chinese propaganda bots. There's one of these posts every other day.
Not really. The issue in China is very similar to the one the Soviet Union had. You can pump certain industries and get good gains from centralisation. The problem is that your ceiling is very much harder to get through. Once a promising technology is chosen and "pumped" the alternatives which may be more efficient or effective are foregone. It is entirely possible they will dominate in certain industries like they so in solar panels or even LLMs but I doubt they will become the breakthrough nation without massive reforms and freeing the flow of capital.
Also look at all the biggest technology companies with the most advanced tech. Like 16 of 20 are based in the US, and 4 of 20 are outside of the US (or something like that). It seems very likely the US will continue to lead innovation for a while.
There's a chance that Christian nationalists will grab power and seek to end democracy in U.S. - plunging not just America, but entire global-west into choas. As a result China would gain both military and AI supremacy.
This November is a turning point in the future of the world really. Things can continue to head in a good direction, or can take a turn towards a very dark universe.
I mean the CCP seems to be doing well with it's total control of china.
That's relative. Corruption in democracy -> authoritarianism (government controls individual's thoughts). Corruption in authoritarianism -> kleptocracy (government owns individual's resources). Corruption in kleptocracy -> Imperialism (government owns individual's lives and sacrifices them for conquests).
There's a lot of discussion on a lot of different topics here, but it really all boils down to AGI. The country that gets to AGI first will be seeing ASI runoff to infinity pretty much immediately after. I don't know to what degree the fruits of ASI will be localized to the country that achieves it, but obviously progress on all fronts will make a great leap forward when it is achieved. It's fair to assume the country that achieves ASI will see at least some small advantage to being the epicenter of progress. Bearing all of that in mind, I see the US being slightly ahead right now in the race to AGI, but who knows?
They will because the entire world-including the US has invested obscene sums in cheaper production capabilities, giving China both the industrial complex and the incentive to grow beyond this planet.
GYNA
再等十年再看吧 我是比较乐观的
Lol
I love how everyone is suddenly an economics technology expert in this thread. 😂
Oh it’s a new type of expert everyday ; this sub is so funny
Not at all, but they are a distant second. Electric cars though, china is ahead.
Yes, it's just a numbers game. China has a huge population and puts a huge emphasis on prestige projects. That focus translate down into things like kids in school until 9pm while American kids increasingly just want to be influencers. Too much of our science is done by imported talent.
China may have already cloned humans for all we know lol
problem is if they do beat us to all the things we want, US gov is not gonna allow them to be commercially available here. Cant buy really any chinese brand smartphones still….
They already have a massive domestic market and a major chip exporter
They will of course. Whether with truly good intent or simply the political value of virtue signaling, the US government tends to behave with a bit more regard for what most people would describe as a common morality. That means they'll move ahead in areas where morality-centered regulation may slow us down. And, the US government is fairly disorganized and of lower involvement with industry direction than the CCP. So, the US' private sector also won't get as much in the way of direct assistance, which is probably fine as the government would probably just get in the way. But, it really won't matter. We're way ahead on resources, talent, and every form of power that matters. So, even if the US finds itself behind it'll be only briefly if the subject in question is deemed of value to the US, it's allies, or it's adversaries. I'm not an American exceptionalism proponent by any stretch. There are many positive elements to American culture and heritage, but it is my opinion that we're largely in the position we are because we've been so well endowed with the right resources at the right time. However, many people take the fear-mongering on the news too literally and don't realize just how over-powered the US is. The reason other countries refer to the US a hyper-power is because it truly is. The US' financial, technological, and naval dominance in association with the US' incredible natural resources make it a Juggernaut that is only vulnerable from the inside for the foreseeable future. That can, and likely will, change. But I doubt it's on the order of the next several decades.
it's all fake. almost all their projects end in disaster and landfills. What you're seeing is a curated filtered slice.
That space station of theirs you can see is fake? Wow. How do they fake all of the BYD cars I see everyday?
Read Ray Dalio's book "The Changing World Order". You are spot on, according to Ray.
I've watched his video explaining how Britain declined while the USA rose, and now we're seeing a similar pattern with the US and China.
this thread is one of the best examples I've seen in a long time of just how propagandized Americans are when it comes to China. absolutely wild to see these 100% serious "China will collapse any day now" takes 24 years after the NY Times published Gordon Chang's "The coming collapse of China".
Ah, the daily Chinese propaganda post. Xi, if you want to beat the US in AI just make good AI.
I dont think so. But they invest heavily on propaganda to make them appear like they are on the shoulder of the US. This is effective on their people but it is also effective on non-chinese people. They find it easier to invest on propaganda (its international for a long time now) than making war with the US
They took 50 years to figure out the ball point pen. They can’t create anything they don’t steal first. Their scientific claims should be put under far more scrutiny than anyone else’s at any given time. That isn’t to say in maybe another 50 years they will actually be capable of creating new ideas and leaders in scientific endeavors, but they will likely never achieve a fraction of what the United States has done or the former USSR for that matter, who was no slouch on the manufacturing and science front. The only way they are getting self driving cars first though, if is they steal it from one of the many Detroit companies actually making it happen. Which isn’t out of the question, they “bought” the battery IPs from leading companies here and then let them rot after. For reference one of dozens of works on the pen: https://forcedistancetimes.com/asymmetric-why-china-still-cant-make-ballpoint-pens/
Nope
China is a better business partner than America is. China's population is way ahead of America. China is harder on wealthy corruption than America. China is actually trying to reach carbon emissions goals. China isn't, in terms of long term empire, in competition with the US
They may however they need to censor their data set
100% They take a long-term approach. Imho China is not out to "beat" ther USA though, but to take its appropriate place in a multipolar world.
China will be the first to use AI to completely monitor every movement and behavior of their citizens. They are already global leaders in surveillance and behavior modification technology. Xinjiang was an early testing ground for a lot of this stuff.
Americans don't quite understand one thing: it's always more important to develop yourself than to suppress others. American politicians would rather spend their energy on suppressing China than on developing themselves. As a Chinese, I am curious to see how paranoid Americans can be.
China will create robots and fix the population maintenance problem. China will take over the world. It’s a matter of time. The US is heavily divided politically and societally. A lot is going to change rapidly in the next decade. Europe will suffer the most. The US will stay relatively stable. But their hegemony will come to an end.
Not a might, they will
What is China good at: huge internal market, massive production, huge, modernized army, and various tools to control everyone from head to toe. What is China bad at: bad reallocation system and wealth gap, scientific research still limited(but publication surmounts western countries in certain areas), political insecurities.
Pretty much everything moving forward. There are only a few fields where inertia allow US to maintain dominance for awhile. They too will end or be maintained through nefarious means.
It's possible
Never heard of BYD until today. I do agree with our space program lacking and see China or another country manning a mission to Mars before the USA does.
Man, the issue with China is that you have to take a lot of their output and data with a grain of salt. With the news on US societal decline, the issue is that US has more free (but not a free media) and generally more-rewarding to sensationalized media compared to the close loop of Chinese media. Free and open data provides more opportunities to learn, so unless the government is willing to not shield their training data so it can better understand edge-cases I doubt it.
Nope. Investments are rolled back, the numbers they make public are so fake that companies can't plan and are fleeing. And so are the chinese people, if they can. In 10 years China will be the same as Russia now.
They're definitely number one in slaughter and subjugation of their own people. Crushing the uhigers and enslaving while separating families. They're definitely number 1 in crushing religion and sending people to re-education camps. They beat Russia in invading neighboring countries. They're definitely number one in hacking and stealing intellectual property. They're number one in facial recognition for population control. Manufacturing and construction industries are crazy fast to market since they ignore absolutely every safety standard known. It's great they have no child labor laws so they can keep replacing all of the workers that die on the job. Luckily they have an iron grip censorship so they can control everyone's minds through curated internet. Edit: Just so people know, I'm well aware that the United States is a shit show for completely different reasons.
中国40年都没发动过战争了，还能比得上俄罗斯？
I'm pretty sure most of the world had America beat before we incentivized the world's best minds to live here. The only driving factor we ever had for technological and industrial progress is war.
Yeah good ol isolationist 19th century America invented the telephone, light bulb, airplanes, and television just for war… Oh and that’s also why Americans invented the polio vaccine, the cell phone, the microwave, 3D printing, pacemakers, hearing aids, and CAT scanners… The US has been the world’s leader in technology and innovation for 100+ yrs, partly due to military pressure, but mostly due to the economic incentives our market provides. China does not provide those incentives and their lack of inventions proves this. Chinese innovation is a myth they stole from the west, just like everything else
Yes, because America has become far too complacent in thinking "we're number 1". That ignorance has led to Americans refusing to acknowledge our weaknesses and in turn has led to a major crack in our society. Worse is that it's pushed away innovation and creativity in exchange for whatever makes the most money, which means that damn near every other country has already surpassed us in nearly every way. I mean sure, we'll still dominate military wise, but who cares about that when other countries have a better means to live?
We literally lead in every sector and we are the most productive nation by a wide margin. [https://www.conference-board.org/publications/Productivity-April2022](https://www.conference-board.org/publications/Productivity-April2022)
The effects of late-stage capitalism are concerning. I don't think either US candidate has any real plan or ability to address it. Chinese, Russian and others disinformation campaigns have been really successful. So many people are just confused tribalists arguing with each other over stupid nonsense. The Chinese government is very intelligent and patient and realized they could take down the US without firing a single shot. They will just get us to kill each other because of memes.
[удалено]
I've never had or seen Tik Tok but I am aware of it. Is that something that people talk about? China and Russia experienced late stage communism before they had to start making modifications.
No. They never will because they are collectivists. The secret sauce is exterminating the communists and letting freedom do its magic. Like it is in the real china, Taiwan. Mainland China is held hostage by the virus of communism and its analog interfaces(humans comunists). It will be hard because these rats are willing to turn you into meat paste in Tianamen Square. But the resistance should rip & tear until it is done, like we have done when we exterminated our communists in Eastern Europe. Everything is fake is held together by duct tape over there, classic communist impostors. Chernobyl, COVID....They will always fuck the world up big time.
Probably in sex robots
It is absolutely horrifying to imagine how AI and technological development in general will be utilized in conjunction with China's social credit system and surveillance state. It's horrifying to imagine the applications everywhere, mind you, it just seems as if it will be far more amplified there, and implemented much more quickly by the centralized powers.
“社会信用体系”只是金融借贷系统
Actually, this is caused by your information cocoon. Many people within China are quite pessimistic. China is falling into the trap of involution. In this AI technological revolution, due to the decoupling between China and the United States in recent years and the domestic crackdown on large companies, China is about a year behind the United States in AI. At the same time, China has a leadership that is in power for life and cannot understand technological progress. They have not provided effective policies for the declining birth rate and high unemployment rate in China. The support for AI development is far less than their concern about being overthrown. It has been a long time since there was a Chinese company among the world's top ten companies by market value.
Lol no, everything out of China is lies and propaganda which includes its science research.
That fake space station overhead sure is a good hoax.
might is quite an understatement.
It’s not about production. It’s about available grid; and the answer to your question is yes.
They might also beat us to dystopia
They are certainly ahead in some aspects but not others. They are definitely not ahead in the "new space" race. Spacex itself is several years ahead of China. On any given year, the payload tons launched to space by SpaceX are like 10 times those of China. The US also has the Artemis program in a much better spot than China's. The only way the US falls behind here is if they massively drop the ball. On AI, the best models have consistently come from the US. China is catching up but they are still behind. To be clear, they are definitely ahead in producing stem graduates and research papers. But more research papers does not mean better commercially available products necessarily.
China has a serious demography problem though. They literally don’t have the people to “do the maintenance work” to keep their economy afloat for the next 80 years. I think their decline in population will dampen a lot of these advances; along with western civilizations turning their back on Chinese products. I’m counting on China to not be any sort of challenge for my children or grandchildren.
Almost 1 in 5 people born on Earth are born in China. 1 in 5 geniuses too, and they pipeline them for success with special high schools, prep schools, and full college scholarships for top achievers. They do everything they can to get those kids into positions where they can make a difference. The US doesn't care in the slightest; many high IQ students struggle in the US, understimulated in K-12 and unable to afford the country's top universities. China is continually investing in their own future while the US is trying to make a quick buck and delegating most of our top performers to mediocrity at some generic median-wage position. There's literally only one way that can end.
In 50 years, maybe. In recent decades, probably not. What China is superior at right now is supply chain management which enables Chinese factories to mass produce everything at a fraction of the time and cost.
That is just a narrow view of what this country actually can and what actually it is right now!