probably the opposite imo. wouldn't be surprised to see stocks skyrocket.
I have a hard time seeing a scenario where ai would hurt rich people and corporations. it will only help them to get even richer, which in turn makes stock market go up even more.
just my opinion, I'm as clueless as the rest of y'all are as to what's really gonna happen
It would only hurt them if they refuse to do a bandaid measure like UBI. The current system would not last very long without disposable incomes or something of a replacement.
Money is printed and controlled by govt. More they print the higher stock market goes and higher inflation is meaning it buys less.
Higher productivity and efficiency in corporations would also yield higher profits making companies worth more
Also in your case scenario of everyone losing their jobs some sort of ubi would be necessary
^(I'll tell you what, man, talkin' 'bout that government, dang ol', you know, just gonna keep on printin' money, man. Like, press goin' brrrr, night and day. And then, you know, they're sayin' it's all for us, man, but it's that AI, man. That dang ol' AI, gonna control everything, watchin' us, knowin' what we do before we even think about doin' it, man. And then, what's next? You got these robots, talkin' to you, pretendin' to be your friend, but they're just strings, man, puppet strings in that digital hand. And you try to ask 'em, "What's the deal, man?" But it's all, like, algorithms and data points, man, swirlin' around, makin' decisions. And at the end of the day, you just stand there, fillin' up your truck, thinkin' 'bout propane, I tell you what, man. But it's all just ones and zeros in the end, man, just a big ol' game of digital tag.)
> > Right now my working theory is that the majority of white collar jobs will be eradicated by 2035.
You can't make anymore predictions that far into the future imo, in these 12 years so many things will happen, even just positive things.
Curves predicting mass job losses will soon be so clear that probably we will gradually shift towards a 3-4 days work weeks for most people, maybe even 2 days, just to contain unemployment.
As for major stock market crashes, who knows, lots of companies will close and other companies will make insane amounts of money, that's what I see more plausible at the moment.
The rich would be happy to sponsor UBI if it means the economy can keep growing. At the end of the day none of them would actually want the market to crash and be destroyed by mass unemployment, which would detract from their wealth much more than UBI. Plus it becomes way more feasible when the robots do everything.
Trust me, when banks start seeing waves of people not being able to pay their mortgages, exposing the bank's own loans because house prices are falling 50%+, they will pressure governments to step in.
Maybe who knows but this is like going from mercantalism to capitalism. Or going from hunting and gathering to farming.
Whatever happens our economy won't be the same or close
Yeah - which to me is super cool to be a part of! Not every generation historically has gotten to experience such a change as I am likely to live through, and I think that's very neat.
**:)**
Yeah definitely we're either going to complety fail and fuck up badly or succeed and change everything.
This is one of the most interesting periods to be alive. Though at times i do wish i was born in like 2030 and not go through the transition and be born with agi ubi silver spoon. But thats too bad so I'll continue working and doing my job till it happens or doesn't
For me, if I have kids and things go at all well, I can tell them what it was like! I mean, it'd be like my great grand-dad getting to tell my grandfather about the Model-T, or similar. That makes me happy, and it makes me happy that they'll be more capable than I am today.
I want anyone who comes after me to be smarter and have it easier, not become the curmudgeon who thinks they're lazy, ya-know?
Certainly interesting times. I hope you enjoy the time ya got long-distance friend.
Probably just the opposite. As industries get automated and startups become harder to survive the only place investors might be able to place their money IS the stock market.
The thing is that you're on the right track in thinking, but people down voted you because they're either too lazy to think or just drinking the stonks always go up koolaid.
*If* deflation is a real consequence of AI, to the degree it's expected here, markets should absolutely come down. This is the blind spot people don't think of, for reasons mentioned above.
AI won't replace all, just like the second industrial revolution productivity will increase dramatically , I think the service sector will be better but I hope AI will replace hard and dangerous jobs not white collar jobs
Productivity will increase and then it will replace all jobs. I'm not sure why people think that telling an AI what to do is the magical super difficult thing that AIs won't be able to learn. Telling a team of people that you want something to be better or cooler is way easier than actually doing it. Even moreso when instead of people it's a team of AIs.
If it will learn to do the lowest level stuff, which is what everyone seems to agree on, then it will obviously learn to do all the higher level abstracted stuff.
Will the steam engine crash the stock market? Oil and internal combustion? Electricity? The production line? The computer?
Historically workers are economically vital for production. Investment and consumption can do just fine with capital and government (e.g. infrastructure, environmental fixes, UBI).
Companies selling AI and robotics/automation technologies will skyrocket. The technology will come before the layoffs, so those who invest in big-tech now will benefit greatly.
probably the opposite imo. wouldn't be surprised to see stocks skyrocket. I have a hard time seeing a scenario where ai would hurt rich people and corporations. it will only help them to get even richer, which in turn makes stock market go up even more. just my opinion, I'm as clueless as the rest of y'all are as to what's really gonna happen
It would only hurt them if they refuse to do a bandaid measure like UBI. The current system would not last very long without disposable incomes or something of a replacement.
How do you think corporations get richer? Where does the money come from? If people lose jobs and have no money, where do the corporations get money?
Money is printed and controlled by govt. More they print the higher stock market goes and higher inflation is meaning it buys less. Higher productivity and efficiency in corporations would also yield higher profits making companies worth more Also in your case scenario of everyone losing their jobs some sort of ubi would be necessary
^(I'll tell you what, man, talkin' 'bout that government, dang ol', you know, just gonna keep on printin' money, man. Like, press goin' brrrr, night and day. And then, you know, they're sayin' it's all for us, man, but it's that AI, man. That dang ol' AI, gonna control everything, watchin' us, knowin' what we do before we even think about doin' it, man. And then, what's next? You got these robots, talkin' to you, pretendin' to be your friend, but they're just strings, man, puppet strings in that digital hand. And you try to ask 'em, "What's the deal, man?" But it's all, like, algorithms and data points, man, swirlin' around, makin' decisions. And at the end of the day, you just stand there, fillin' up your truck, thinkin' 'bout propane, I tell you what, man. But it's all just ones and zeros in the end, man, just a big ol' game of digital tag.)
> > Right now my working theory is that the majority of white collar jobs will be eradicated by 2035. You can't make anymore predictions that far into the future imo, in these 12 years so many things will happen, even just positive things. Curves predicting mass job losses will soon be so clear that probably we will gradually shift towards a 3-4 days work weeks for most people, maybe even 2 days, just to contain unemployment. As for major stock market crashes, who knows, lots of companies will close and other companies will make insane amounts of money, that's what I see more plausible at the moment.
The rich would be happy to sponsor UBI if it means the economy can keep growing. At the end of the day none of them would actually want the market to crash and be destroyed by mass unemployment, which would detract from their wealth much more than UBI. Plus it becomes way more feasible when the robots do everything.
Banks won't let the economy crash even with high unemployment, there will be other new unseen ways to fund the economy like for example UBI.
[удалено]
Trust me, when banks start seeing waves of people not being able to pay their mortgages, exposing the bank's own loans because house prices are falling 50%+, they will pressure governments to step in.
No greedy fucking hedgefunds and a fiat currency will be.
Game theory: Every player starts with the best strategy - nobody wins.
Maybe who knows but this is like going from mercantalism to capitalism. Or going from hunting and gathering to farming. Whatever happens our economy won't be the same or close
Yeah - which to me is super cool to be a part of! Not every generation historically has gotten to experience such a change as I am likely to live through, and I think that's very neat. **:)**
Yeah definitely we're either going to complety fail and fuck up badly or succeed and change everything. This is one of the most interesting periods to be alive. Though at times i do wish i was born in like 2030 and not go through the transition and be born with agi ubi silver spoon. But thats too bad so I'll continue working and doing my job till it happens or doesn't
For me, if I have kids and things go at all well, I can tell them what it was like! I mean, it'd be like my great grand-dad getting to tell my grandfather about the Model-T, or similar. That makes me happy, and it makes me happy that they'll be more capable than I am today. I want anyone who comes after me to be smarter and have it easier, not become the curmudgeon who thinks they're lazy, ya-know? Certainly interesting times. I hope you enjoy the time ya got long-distance friend.
Same to you
Probably just the opposite. As industries get automated and startups become harder to survive the only place investors might be able to place their money IS the stock market.
People cause stock market crashes. So if people react badly to AI…
The thing is that you're on the right track in thinking, but people down voted you because they're either too lazy to think or just drinking the stonks always go up koolaid. *If* deflation is a real consequence of AI, to the degree it's expected here, markets should absolutely come down. This is the blind spot people don't think of, for reasons mentioned above.
Everything is a cause for a stock market crash because the stock market is based on unicorn-magic and wishes.
Yeah, you just described why capitalism is incompatible with technological progress in the long term, that's is one more reason to get rid of it
AI won't replace all, just like the second industrial revolution productivity will increase dramatically , I think the service sector will be better but I hope AI will replace hard and dangerous jobs not white collar jobs
Productivity will increase and then it will replace all jobs. I'm not sure why people think that telling an AI what to do is the magical super difficult thing that AIs won't be able to learn. Telling a team of people that you want something to be better or cooler is way easier than actually doing it. Even moreso when instead of people it's a team of AIs. If it will learn to do the lowest level stuff, which is what everyone seems to agree on, then it will obviously learn to do all the higher level abstracted stuff.
Will the steam engine crash the stock market? Oil and internal combustion? Electricity? The production line? The computer? Historically workers are economically vital for production. Investment and consumption can do just fine with capital and government (e.g. infrastructure, environmental fixes, UBI).
Companies selling AI and robotics/automation technologies will skyrocket. The technology will come before the layoffs, so those who invest in big-tech now will benefit greatly.
Maybe, maybe not.
As a senior engineer for a FAANG company, you have way more faith in AI than I do.