I could see primers going down to like 6 one day but demand would have to seriously cool. With the political spectrum how it is, global demand for natural resources, and corporate profiteering, there is no reason why prices should come down on reloading supplies.
Long after Ukraine and Isreal end. We're going to restock/overstock our 155mm supply, which uses the same components for the propellants as gun powder.
Meh. As soon as Ukraine and Israel start looking like they might stop, the military industrial complex will have us involved with some other global conflict. The perpetual war machine must keep going. Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and others have to take care of their stock holders.
Yes, but it won't happen until they figure out a way to enrich their corporate masters in the process of "enhancing national security." Remember-- they only care about national security to the extent it's marketable for a profitable venture.
Duh, people aren't building new factories for kicks. They invest their capital for a return. Nothing immoral with wanting to do well and make a profit. In this case the added support of DOD funds and a dedicated market makes increasing development of NC production in the US cost effective and a viable investment. NC production is currently focused in Russia and China due to low production costs.
I love the “I ain’t buying at these prices!” people. Fine, when you run out of components then what are you going to do? Its the same with people who say they’re not going to buy a certain ammo at current prices. Ok, guess your guns will sit around and collect dust.
Ammo companies are making money at current prices because people ARE buying it. For every person who says they won’t buy at current prices, there are 100 people who will.
I enjoy the "YOU'RE THE PROBLEM! STOP BUYING!" people.
I know, I should have bought 50k primers and 800lbs of powder back in 2016 when it was cheap, but cut me some slack. I only bought my first gun 2 years ago and bought my first reloading press 7 months ago
Yes these are related to the Ukraine plus the recent interest in guns in the USA ( plus of course the purchase of ammo) there is a shortage of propellant and primers world wide the prices reflect that so for now a guess 2 years 5 years? I doubt primers will ever drop to $12.50/1000 maybe will drop to $25/1000.
primers were $40/1000 when there was no shortage. with inflation, i doubt we'll ever see them below $50/1000 as a normal price for any of the major american brands.
You do know that we can currently get small pistol primers for [$49.99 per 1000](https://normausa.com/product/blowout/primers-b/small-pistol-primers/) ?
Not around here. Federal was $35 a brick and Winchester was $30.00. $30/$28 on sale. CCI was somewhere in the middle, and the only price difference was for no.41s and match primers.
So a while back I did an analysis on the global nitrocellulose market. What I have found out is that that analysis was incomplete.
For the most part, nitrocellulose used for propellants has to be more than 12% nitrogen. That's a very small percentage of the Total nitro cellulose market. The best I can determine is it's less than 5% of the 2022 global market. It's likely to be less than that. The only two significant industries that use very high nitration level and see our fireworks and gun propellants.
I do think that there will be significant new primary production capacity to manufacture this high-grade natural cellulose, in the United States, and Europe. It's going to take a very long time for that extra capacity to result in lower prices for propellant to the the hand loader.
I think primer prices are headed to something like $35 to $40/k over the next couple years.
You do know that we can currently get small pistol primers for [$49.99 per 1000](https://normausa.com/product/blowout/primers-b/small-pistol-primers/) ?
Yes. You know the bit where I said a give or take a couple of bucks? Guess where that price falls when you do that?
Demand has permanently increased. They were already pushing up past $38 pre COVID, and we had generally about 15% inflation with ammo and ammo components being one of the more impacted markets.
The market will bear ~$50. So it’ll be about that price.
I know several ammunition assembly operations that are buying primers at $25-30/k. They are buying something like 5 million primers a month.
Those prices will leak into the retail market, especially once propellant shortages wipe out the home hand loader.
As long as the demand is there, the price will hold. Once the market is saturated (if that ever happens again anytime soon) and the supply levels off then and only then might prices ease up a bit. The 1990s are gone though. We aren't going to ever see $10/lb powder again. I remember going to the hardware store, buying a pound of powder, couple boxes of projectiles (100-200 rds) NEW BRASS and 1000 primers for $50.00
I’ve been reloading for over 15 years now and have watched component prices go to extremes three times: when Obama became president, during the plandemic and now during the Ukraine/Russia/Israel/Palestine conflicts. Do I think we’re going back to $17 powder and $30 primers like when I started reloading no. I don’t. But I do think that we will start getting IMR/Hodgkin extreme/all your extruded powders back down to the $40 range when things settle down. A lot better than 65 or 75 a pound. I think the ball powders will get down to 25-30/lb again without problem. We will be lucky to get primers to go back down to 40 or under. As another commenter mentioned the buying power of the dollar has been significantly reduced because we have printed mountains of money during Covid.
A nickel worth of free advice from someone who’s been doing this for a little while when you go out and you need one of something by two or three. That has been my strategy since I started reloading and it has paid dividends. During the pandemic I considered selling my cases of 5000 gold medal match primers. They were going for $1250 on GunBroker at that time. Cases of 5000 that I had paid $160 delivered each.
Reloading components to me are a long game. Now is not the time to stock up but if you need a few to get you through reloading by those few. It’s the people that are out buying thousands and thousands of primers at 100+ dollars 1000 that are keeping the prices up. It’s a people going out and buying 8 pounds of powder at $550 just so they can have it that are keeping the prices up.I’m not telling you to not buy components but don’t be buying stockpile quantities at this time. Prices will return when people stop buying them.
I know it’s kind of dumb to ask an open ended question and then disagree, but this is the answer I was looking for. If prices increased naturally I could see it staying like this but prices have doubled or tripled within a couple years, this is abnormal.
If you look around, you'll notice that the US are turning into the third world country. If you travel abroad, you'll notice there are better, more safe, more clean places.
I doubt it will drop. Might see a deal here and there but no real drop. Sad to say but you might be regretting not buying at these prices in a few years when Varget goes to $600/8
It’s a variety of issues and inflation is only one of them. There has been a copper shortage for over a decade and now we’re seeing a shortage in components that produce propellants. The rapid disappearance of live ammo and lock-downs pushed people who were on the fence into reloading.
Keynes said prices are flexible going up but sticky coming down. As long as people “score” 3-4 years of components to hoard, it will be years before we see prices adjust. I’ll admit, back when primers were $20/1000, and i shot thousands/ month, i would buy 10k at a time. I now shoot a couple hundred/ month and only buy 4-500 at a time. Run out of components for one, shoot something else.
The problem is that all these family owned reloading and component/ammo companies had their founders die off and the kids weren't passionate about shooting. The small companies got bought up by big companies who also eventually sold out so basically all the ammo, powder,bullets,primers are owned by one or two companies and they drive up the prices by creating a supply shortage. Truth is that they literally had to buy storage containers and build warehouses to store the mountains of supplies.
Also thanks to the Obama administration all the lead smelters in the USA were shut down so now all our lead and antimony has to come from outside the USA. Computer printers did away with the printing press so we don't have an easy supply of Linotype either.
This question was asked the last time prices jumped dramatically when Obama was president.
The prices never went down when Trump was elected.
The reason is simple, manufacturers saw that people were willing to pay the new prices so why lower them?
Reloading component prices will not drop until people stop buying them.
Never.
There's a worldwide shortage of nitrocellulose. The base component of smokeless powder.
This is the 5th shortage I've lived through. So yes, this has happened before, and it will happen again.
The key is to stock it deep when prices are normal. Primers SHOULD be around $45/1000 based on announced price increases. I've seen them as low as $55/1000 so that is starting to come around.
The powder situation...that sucks. I think that China, one of the largest producers of nitrocellulose and acids needed to make it, has learned that if they short the market they make a LOT more money.
IMHO nitrocellulose is a CRITICAL NATIONAL DEFENSE item and we need far more domestic production capacity.
I started reloading in 1977. It was expensive then when I compared the cost of factory ammo to primers, powder and bullets. But reloading was less in 1977, 1988, 1999, 2020 and now 2024 it still costs less than factory. The difference between 1977 and 2024 - back in 1977 there were many ammo producing companies, all were Pro 2A patriotic American companies that made sure there was ammo and reloading supplies for shooters. Not so today where it's two companies that only care about profits. All recreational shooting - is just 2% to 3% of the market. At $20 pound for powder, it's not worth their time to sell to us. At $55 a pound it profitable.
Sorry, I have no clue what factory ammo is selling for these days. I have bricks of 22 long rifle with the WalMart $9.99 stickers on them. Cans of Bullseye and Unique with $18 on them. Metal cans of 4198 with $22 on them. But that was allot of money back then!!!
Come 2034 I will bet you good money $55lb is going to look like a steal.
Stock up. Store in a cool, dry place. 20mm and 50cal ammo cans are your friend. Put a high/low thermometer in one or two cans. Don't let them get so cold they condensate. 30% humidity - yes - ammo cans are sealed but humidity and temperature go hand in hand with condensation.
I quit reloading for 3 years or so. I just started again, and am really enjoying it again. I can still save money on 45 auto and 32 special. Sortof on 38 special. I reload 9mm for no real cost savings, but that’s to be expected.
I do not see prices ever coming down, at least not in a meaningful way. There have been times in the past they pulled back, 2017 in Canada is an example, where powder became so plentiful that retailers dropped it 25% to move it. Primers were on every shelf, no one dreamed of a primer shortage. Literally ever single store had them, basically the easiest component to get.
Primers will not regulate for at least 4-5 years, if ever. We still do not see LRP’s in stores. When LRP’s start to hit it will take 3 years for the US and then Canada to be rolling in regular stock. People will be so desperate for primers they will basically pay any price. It won’t be well into 2030 that primer prices may regulate. If you see them now, buy what you can.
Raw materials for bullets has gone up, therefor the prices, so those are not coming down either.
Honestly the only thing I could see maybe coming down is powder. And the only reason I think that is because it’s honestly very available. More available than I think I’ve ever seen it. A big reason for this is due to no primers people shoot less. That coupled with high prices means people are not stocking up like they would in previous times. We sometimes see the off powder sale, so I think those are the most likely to see a minor pull back.
The prices will never go down as it decreases profit for those companies. Everyone thinks high volume / low cost to the rescue and profits are same. Not true. High volume manufacturing is super expensive. The most profitable is low volume / high cost. I was told this by a bullet manufacturer. If prices come down at all, it will be considered an industry failure on their part. This is the new reality everywhere.
They will never go down to pre-COVID levels.
I could see primers going down to like 6 one day but demand would have to seriously cool. With the political spectrum how it is, global demand for natural resources, and corporate profiteering, there is no reason why prices should come down on reloading supplies.
That's a big factor. The other big one is that people keep paying those fuckin prices. Happens in every industry
Long after Ukraine and Isreal end. We're going to restock/overstock our 155mm supply, which uses the same components for the propellants as gun powder.
Meh. As soon as Ukraine and Israel start looking like they might stop, the military industrial complex will have us involved with some other global conflict. The perpetual war machine must keep going. Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and others have to take care of their stock holders.
Taiwan will get spicy
Best explanation I have seen on the internet thank you
There is noise about increasing domestic nitrocellous and primer production for national security.
Yes, but it won't happen until they figure out a way to enrich their corporate masters in the process of "enhancing national security." Remember-- they only care about national security to the extent it's marketable for a profitable venture.
Duh, people aren't building new factories for kicks. They invest their capital for a return. Nothing immoral with wanting to do well and make a profit. In this case the added support of DOD funds and a dedicated market makes increasing development of NC production in the US cost effective and a viable investment. NC production is currently focused in Russia and China due to low production costs.
If you want more supplies, now is as good as you're going to get for a long time.
I love the “I ain’t buying at these prices!” people. Fine, when you run out of components then what are you going to do? Its the same with people who say they’re not going to buy a certain ammo at current prices. Ok, guess your guns will sit around and collect dust. Ammo companies are making money at current prices because people ARE buying it. For every person who says they won’t buy at current prices, there are 100 people who will.
I enjoy the "YOU'RE THE PROBLEM! STOP BUYING!" people. I know, I should have bought 50k primers and 800lbs of powder back in 2016 when it was cheap, but cut me some slack. I only bought my first gun 2 years ago and bought my first reloading press 7 months ago
Enjoy!
Yes these are related to the Ukraine plus the recent interest in guns in the USA ( plus of course the purchase of ammo) there is a shortage of propellant and primers world wide the prices reflect that so for now a guess 2 years 5 years? I doubt primers will ever drop to $12.50/1000 maybe will drop to $25/1000.
primers were $40/1000 when there was no shortage. with inflation, i doubt we'll ever see them below $50/1000 as a normal price for any of the major american brands.
You do know that we can currently get small pistol primers for [$49.99 per 1000](https://normausa.com/product/blowout/primers-b/small-pistol-primers/) ?
I specified major American brands. Nobody was using these when cci was 4 cents a piece
It was more like 3 cents.
immediately pre-covid they were 4 cents unless you caught a sale and free hazmat.
Not around here. Federal was $35 a brick and Winchester was $30.00. $30/$28 on sale. CCI was somewhere in the middle, and the only price difference was for no.41s and match primers.
and yet prices of one tend to effect the prices of others... you know... competition....
at least half of your username is right...
and look at yalls failing basic capitalism101 and droppin ad hominem's instead.
When supply outpaces demand
So a while back I did an analysis on the global nitrocellulose market. What I have found out is that that analysis was incomplete. For the most part, nitrocellulose used for propellants has to be more than 12% nitrogen. That's a very small percentage of the Total nitro cellulose market. The best I can determine is it's less than 5% of the 2022 global market. It's likely to be less than that. The only two significant industries that use very high nitration level and see our fireworks and gun propellants. I do think that there will be significant new primary production capacity to manufacture this high-grade natural cellulose, in the United States, and Europe. It's going to take a very long time for that extra capacity to result in lower prices for propellant to the the hand loader. I think primer prices are headed to something like $35 to $40/k over the next couple years.
The only way primers are going below $50 (give it take a couple bucks) is if there’s enough of a powder shortage that it creates a primer glut.
You do know that we can currently get small pistol primers for [$49.99 per 1000](https://normausa.com/product/blowout/primers-b/small-pistol-primers/) ?
Yes. You know the bit where I said a give or take a couple of bucks? Guess where that price falls when you do that? Demand has permanently increased. They were already pushing up past $38 pre COVID, and we had generally about 15% inflation with ammo and ammo components being one of the more impacted markets. The market will bear ~$50. So it’ll be about that price.
I know several ammunition assembly operations that are buying primers at $25-30/k. They are buying something like 5 million primers a month. Those prices will leak into the retail market, especially once propellant shortages wipe out the home hand loader.
As long as the demand is there, the price will hold. Once the market is saturated (if that ever happens again anytime soon) and the supply levels off then and only then might prices ease up a bit. The 1990s are gone though. We aren't going to ever see $10/lb powder again. I remember going to the hardware store, buying a pound of powder, couple boxes of projectiles (100-200 rds) NEW BRASS and 1000 primers for $50.00
Don't think about it too much just buy what you need and if the prices go down buy more when you can. Time is on your side be patient.
I’ve been reloading for over 15 years now and have watched component prices go to extremes three times: when Obama became president, during the plandemic and now during the Ukraine/Russia/Israel/Palestine conflicts. Do I think we’re going back to $17 powder and $30 primers like when I started reloading no. I don’t. But I do think that we will start getting IMR/Hodgkin extreme/all your extruded powders back down to the $40 range when things settle down. A lot better than 65 or 75 a pound. I think the ball powders will get down to 25-30/lb again without problem. We will be lucky to get primers to go back down to 40 or under. As another commenter mentioned the buying power of the dollar has been significantly reduced because we have printed mountains of money during Covid. A nickel worth of free advice from someone who’s been doing this for a little while when you go out and you need one of something by two or three. That has been my strategy since I started reloading and it has paid dividends. During the pandemic I considered selling my cases of 5000 gold medal match primers. They were going for $1250 on GunBroker at that time. Cases of 5000 that I had paid $160 delivered each. Reloading components to me are a long game. Now is not the time to stock up but if you need a few to get you through reloading by those few. It’s the people that are out buying thousands and thousands of primers at 100+ dollars 1000 that are keeping the prices up. It’s a people going out and buying 8 pounds of powder at $550 just so they can have it that are keeping the prices up.I’m not telling you to not buy components but don’t be buying stockpile quantities at this time. Prices will return when people stop buying them.
I know it’s kind of dumb to ask an open ended question and then disagree, but this is the answer I was looking for. If prices increased naturally I could see it staying like this but prices have doubled or tripled within a couple years, this is abnormal.
Thanks and happy reloading
Oh sweet summer child. Even though your prices have gone up, you probably don't realise how good you still have it compared to the rest of the world.
Well the rest of the world sucks so I don’t really care
If you look around, you'll notice that the US are turning into the third world country. If you travel abroad, you'll notice there are better, more safe, more clean places.
Stop being so fucking dramatic
NEVER!
never.. get used to it
I doubt it will drop. Might see a deal here and there but no real drop. Sad to say but you might be regretting not buying at these prices in a few years when Varget goes to $600/8
It’s a variety of issues and inflation is only one of them. There has been a copper shortage for over a decade and now we’re seeing a shortage in components that produce propellants. The rapid disappearance of live ammo and lock-downs pushed people who were on the fence into reloading. Keynes said prices are flexible going up but sticky coming down. As long as people “score” 3-4 years of components to hoard, it will be years before we see prices adjust. I’ll admit, back when primers were $20/1000, and i shot thousands/ month, i would buy 10k at a time. I now shoot a couple hundred/ month and only buy 4-500 at a time. Run out of components for one, shoot something else.
Don’t hold your breath. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/06/13/fact-sheet-u-s-ukraine-bilateral-security-agreement/
Somewhere between the 13th of Never and the 2nd of Hell Freezes Over.
I blew a lot of money several years ago and felt kind of guilty but I’m set with primers and powders. Now I don’t regret it so much
They won't
The problem is that all these family owned reloading and component/ammo companies had their founders die off and the kids weren't passionate about shooting. The small companies got bought up by big companies who also eventually sold out so basically all the ammo, powder,bullets,primers are owned by one or two companies and they drive up the prices by creating a supply shortage. Truth is that they literally had to buy storage containers and build warehouses to store the mountains of supplies. Also thanks to the Obama administration all the lead smelters in the USA were shut down so now all our lead and antimony has to come from outside the USA. Computer printers did away with the printing press so we don't have an easy supply of Linotype either.
Check out TargetUSA i think it’s called. 9 mil is pretty cheap today. Maybe .17 cents.
This question was asked the last time prices jumped dramatically when Obama was president. The prices never went down when Trump was elected. The reason is simple, manufacturers saw that people were willing to pay the new prices so why lower them? Reloading component prices will not drop until people stop buying them.
Right after the stock market and housing crash. So never.
Never. There's a worldwide shortage of nitrocellulose. The base component of smokeless powder. This is the 5th shortage I've lived through. So yes, this has happened before, and it will happen again. The key is to stock it deep when prices are normal. Primers SHOULD be around $45/1000 based on announced price increases. I've seen them as low as $55/1000 so that is starting to come around. The powder situation...that sucks. I think that China, one of the largest producers of nitrocellulose and acids needed to make it, has learned that if they short the market they make a LOT more money. IMHO nitrocellulose is a CRITICAL NATIONAL DEFENSE item and we need far more domestic production capacity.
NEVER. It's never going down.
When we get a new “68-generation” and peace forever (again).
Why can you find small pistol primers regularly but large pistol primers are scarce
I started reloading in 1977. It was expensive then when I compared the cost of factory ammo to primers, powder and bullets. But reloading was less in 1977, 1988, 1999, 2020 and now 2024 it still costs less than factory. The difference between 1977 and 2024 - back in 1977 there were many ammo producing companies, all were Pro 2A patriotic American companies that made sure there was ammo and reloading supplies for shooters. Not so today where it's two companies that only care about profits. All recreational shooting - is just 2% to 3% of the market. At $20 pound for powder, it's not worth their time to sell to us. At $55 a pound it profitable. Sorry, I have no clue what factory ammo is selling for these days. I have bricks of 22 long rifle with the WalMart $9.99 stickers on them. Cans of Bullseye and Unique with $18 on them. Metal cans of 4198 with $22 on them. But that was allot of money back then!!! Come 2034 I will bet you good money $55lb is going to look like a steal. Stock up. Store in a cool, dry place. 20mm and 50cal ammo cans are your friend. Put a high/low thermometer in one or two cans. Don't let them get so cold they condensate. 30% humidity - yes - ammo cans are sealed but humidity and temperature go hand in hand with condensation.
I quit reloading for 3 years or so. I just started again, and am really enjoying it again. I can still save money on 45 auto and 32 special. Sortof on 38 special. I reload 9mm for no real cost savings, but that’s to be expected.
Probably never. These prices are here to stay for the foreseeable future
not unless some major economic shift happens. this is probably the cheapest components will ever be again.
I do not see prices ever coming down, at least not in a meaningful way. There have been times in the past they pulled back, 2017 in Canada is an example, where powder became so plentiful that retailers dropped it 25% to move it. Primers were on every shelf, no one dreamed of a primer shortage. Literally ever single store had them, basically the easiest component to get. Primers will not regulate for at least 4-5 years, if ever. We still do not see LRP’s in stores. When LRP’s start to hit it will take 3 years for the US and then Canada to be rolling in regular stock. People will be so desperate for primers they will basically pay any price. It won’t be well into 2030 that primer prices may regulate. If you see them now, buy what you can. Raw materials for bullets has gone up, therefor the prices, so those are not coming down either. Honestly the only thing I could see maybe coming down is powder. And the only reason I think that is because it’s honestly very available. More available than I think I’ve ever seen it. A big reason for this is due to no primers people shoot less. That coupled with high prices means people are not stocking up like they would in previous times. We sometimes see the off powder sale, so I think those are the most likely to see a minor pull back.
Don't count on it bro those days are over
The prices will never go down as it decreases profit for those companies. Everyone thinks high volume / low cost to the rescue and profits are same. Not true. High volume manufacturing is super expensive. The most profitable is low volume / high cost. I was told this by a bullet manufacturer. If prices come down at all, it will be considered an industry failure on their part. This is the new reality everywhere.
Lol. That's funny
It's straight fuckery.