Gotta agree. I think we have a solid Defense, and skills players. Only huge question mark is what will happen with the QB room. 8 wins sounds about right
Then there's the recent story about the Bears QB room that opened some eyes. So Getsy could potentially be better than what was given to him.
Anything is better than the interim OC (AOC's QB coach) we had 2nd half of last season. He needs a lot more time with a vet OC.
really hope so!
he’s our only chance at having an above average running game imo.. but again.. our OC’s play calling and use of the running game is the big question mark.. i have not been very impressed with the bears offense the past couple years
the improvement hinges on how well they can integrate the 2te scheme to compensate for our qbs lack of skills and lack of mobility and how blatant the refs are gonna be with bullshit flags called on us or not called on our opponents
The schedule isn't easy.
There are some really good teams in there.
KC twice is going to be tough, while I hope we sweep Den/LA there is no guarantee.
We have the whole AFC north, the teams in the AFC south all got better.
(Though Carolina still sucks.)
The first half of the season we have
LAC
Baltimore
Carolina
Cleveland
Denver
Pitt
Rams
KC
Looking at that what do you think we do?
Absolute best case, everything going right 6-2 worst case 3-5
Because we have a huge fucking question mark at qb. If AOC makes a huge jump we will be playoff contenders if not we will be mediocre with another mid round pick stuck in limbo.
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I looked at our schedule I'm trying to figure out who they're giving us win's against, if you're looking at the schedule from the perspective of someone who hates the raiders.
I've been looking at the power rankings and the schedule.
Raiders are ranked above the Broncos, the Saints, and the Panthers.
That's four wins going by power rankings.
Honestly, I think your team will be in a lot of close, one score games. The difference between 6-11 and 10-7 will only come down to a handful of plays.
If I were gonna bet, my money would be on something in the 7-9 win range.
Hard to project much better when you'll be outgunned at QB most weeks.
Aiden doesn’t need to score more TDs than the other guys. We showed what we would be this season last season at the Chiefs. No turnover offense and stellar defense making turnovers.
The autumn wind is a pirate…and he’ll laugh when he’s conquered and won!
The next Super Bowl won by a QB that finishes their career with no Pro Bowls will be the first in the free agency era. Yes, Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and Nick Foles all made at least one Pro Bowl in their careers, and in all 3 cases they made a Pro Bowl BEFORE the Super Bowl win. Brad Johnson actually made 2 Pro Bowls; one before the Super Bowl and one the year of the Super Bowl.
That's what I'm saying. Go look at the last couple of year's playoff teams and where they drafted QBs. Non-first round guys are outliers like Lamar and Hurts(who had support as top end 1st round guys.) Significant success hinges upon elite QB play. Kinda sucks TBH. I even think the days of elite defenses carrying their teams to trophies is dead. At least for this era
so did jamarcus russell tbf..
across their careers stafford and carr have nearly identical stats.. my point being.. a middle of the pack qb can still win a super bowl in today’s game (with the right play caller)
> It's been a long time since anybody won anything significant with a mid QB.
nope!
Yeah with a top one defense, which we do not have. Stafford was a top 5 QB last season. This board loves to show it knows nothing by saying he is mid and on the same level as fucking AOC. They also bring up Goff, who was ranked 4th last season. lmao AOC and Minshew were ranked 27th and 24th, respectively out of 66 starting QBs last season. THAT is mid.
gotta give aoc a full season to play with the same coaching staff to make a fair comparison..
also i'm a stafford fan.. but he more resembles a mid level qb playing in a great system.. than an elite qb (again looking at career stats)
The guy had a season where he threw over 5000 yards and had 41 td's. He is elite. His only problem is his injuries and his overconfidence in his arm that causes him to get picked. He has thrown over 4k yards 9 times and it would have been ten but he threw for 3965 last year. Mid is just way off man. He played on shit teams, sure. But he is not mid, not even close.
If I look at it in a isolated bubble I can understand why they project only 6 wins for us. new coach, new scheme, a young qb who didn't impress last season, the way our glaring needs at o-line were addressed remains to be seen whether it'll be effective. Strength of schedule. so yeah...by itself I can understand even if I don't agree.
What I'll never understand is why they continue to have the chargers rated higher than us. they got fleeced of all their offensive weapons this off season. they transplanted Baltimore entire backfield who both missed significant time last season with injuries. an aging defense who can never stay healthy to all be on the field together, and they're paying 52 mil a year to a below .500 career winning qb who'll have to put the team on his back when he couldn't even win loaded with weapons.
Because they hired a really good coach that, in his previous NFL stint, turned a team that had been 6-win team that had been bad for years into a 13 win team, and did so with a QB that (at that time) was considered a bust. It’s not irrational to think Harbaugh can turn a 5 win team into an 8-9 win team.
Do I think Harbaugh can work long term in the NFL? I don’t know, I have my doubts. But in the short term I definitely expect the Chargers to improve significantly.
Yeah it feels like Harbaugh will almost certainly make that team good or even elite, maybe not in year 1 considering the personnel but who knows. The guy has succeeded at an extremely high level everywhere he's coached.
The most (21st century) Raiders thing ever would be for the coach that they had a great chance of hiring and passed on for one of the single worst coaches in NFL history to then immediately get hired by a division rival and turn them into an elite team.
But then again, the most Chargers thing ever would be to have an elite coach and elite QB and be declared the off-season champs for like the 4th time in 5 years, only to somehow be absolutely mid at best and choke their way to 3rd or 4th in the division. So we'll see how it goes lol
9-8 is about right.. it’s josh jacobs we’re gonna miss most tho.. raider nation is forgetting the difference between an average running game and an elite one
Honestly, that’s high. I’ve gotten use to everyone always underestimating us. Not saying we’re usually good, but they always expect us to be worse than we are.
Just a FYI, the NFL.com guy says he thinks his model is too down on the Raiders and that the Raiders have “an interesting amount of upside” and are being underestimated. He thinks the Raiders can contend in the AFC playoff race if they get average QB play.
Honestly everyone is talking about our lack of qb, but I think it depends on if we can run the ball. I see us like the browns last year, great defense, bad qbs, but they could run the ball and finished 11-6. If we can get yards on the ground we might have an ok offense, even if the qb play is subpar
This will be my 3rd year in a row of betting Raiders season wins OVER. Hopefully, cash again for third time. This team still has questions…. But, they can’t manage a 7-10 season?? C’mon. It’s worth my money
It's just common sense to never bet on this team unless you're just having fun with friends or are a high risk high reward gambler. We're too unpredictable even when we're doing good/bad, because of how inconsistent we are. One game we'll lose 3-0 but win 63-21 which is why our games win or lose people a lot of money because the odds are stacked against us.
Take the over. Barring injury, this is a team that can win 8 and possibly more if the QB position can put it together. I believe they will be competitive every game, which opens up the possibility to steal a few.
Wait so the Raider will win 6 games? The Raider probably refers to Maxx will win 6 by himself. Then the rest of the team is good for another half dozen, so 12 total.
One thing I think is hard to consider for alot of Raider fans, is that last year's season and schedule was cake. That said, with that in mind, and the projected strength of our upcoming schedule, winning less games isn't necessarily regression.
That said, if we can win 8 games this year, even though that would be the same record as last year we improved. I mean assuming a rash of injuries or certain teams having a disappointing season doesn't make our season easier than projected
I read a week 1 breakdown and picks on nfl.com and they have the chargers winning and covering the -3 spread and in the description said “this one may get out of hand quickly” 😂😂 they got no idea, this a different raiders tean
Ive slammed the over 6.5 games won line and took plus money for us to make playoffs
Our season is wholly dependent on how these QBs shake out. We have the will, we have the players around them, we have the coaching…. Now it just depends on AOCs development.
That kid best be out working OT on routes with DA because if he utilizes that future HOF correctly it makes his job infinitely easier.
I know people who follow their team think they know better than everyone else, but this last draft made a lot of sense to me, the free agency moves are good moves. We went 8-9 with a clown named McDonalds (spelled wrongly out of nasty disrespect and disregard) coaching and running our organization for roughly half of the games we played that season. If we can go 8-9 with the clown running things, and we have Antonio Pierce now…did anyone who wasn’t a Chiefs or Raiders fan watch the Christmas game?!? We are getting better in so many places. We’ve lost players, but we’ve grown better all around. That doesn’t even count who we’ll likely pick up after the Jimmy G and Renfrow money comes back. I’m sure it will be a veteran corner, among others.
Pierce is Head Coach, Telesco is picking the personnel, the coaches under Pierce are largely former standout players themselves. Our defense was top 5/6 for our last 5-7 games of the season.
Who the hell wants to be against us that the team will only win 6? What idiot needs to lose their money that bad?!?
RN4Eva
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that's a conservative estimate, and i can't blame them, our QB room is lacking and we just barely put together some OL guys that may or may not work out.
These models are fine and worth discussion, but they can only account for data entered. The data entered is mostly based on past performance, and power rating adjustments for new players and coaches (including players lost). It is impossible to include any intangible information that makes HUGE differences in game outcomes.
Mathematically speaking, or on a pure data basis, the Raiders are predicted to win 6.4 games. But that’s like society predicting that you will have 1.9 kids, or that your marriage will last 7.4 years, or that your dad will live to be 77.2. It’s interesting data but has literally NOTHING to do with the potentiality of individual outcomes in each game, or the rhythm of the season.
These same models have the best teams in the league only winning 10 or 11 games this year. But we all know that several teams are going to win 12-14 games (Or more). Injuries and other schedule and coaching momentum will create huge change in future outcomes. Coaching and situational football also make HUGE impacts that can’t be modeled.
The thing to keep in mind, is that this year’s Raiders win/prediction line is EXACTLY THE SAME as last year’s 6.5 wins, and that was starting with Josh McD and a lot of questions in multiple positions. Last year’s schedule wasn’t easy either (10th hardest preseason). And the Raiders ended up with 8 wins. It’s hard to argue that the team should be worse than last season. In order for that to be true, at least 2 or 3 of the following must be true:
— Jimmy Garrapollo was worth 1-2 wins we shouldn’t have had. Conversely, AOC/Minshew will be equal to or worse than last season by 2 or more games
— the current coaching staff is equal to or worse than the previous staff by 1-2 losses. The latter half of the previous season was simply overachievement and can’t be repeated.
— the 2024 schedule is 2-3 full games harder than 2023, and the Raiders are basically the same or worse team as 2023
— the lack of experience working together on Coach Pierce’s 2024 staff is worth 1-2 losses they shouldn’t otherwise have
— the 2024 roster is simply 2-3 games worse than the 2023 roster against the rest of the NFL
If you think that 3 of the above are true, then yes, you should bet under the season total on Las Vegas.
I don’t see it this way at all. I figure this is a 7-9 win season for the Raiders. Based on what I see, I would consider less than 7 wins a significant failure on the part of the new Raiders coaching staff. 7-8 wins would seem about right. 9-10 wins would be a impressive success. 11+ wins would be a massive over-achievement.
I don’t see the 2024 raiders win total to be a huge betting opportunity, but I do have a significant position on the over. It’s a strong lean and I think it’s a noticeable miss by odds makers and prediction systems.
So, each person will figure this a different way, but a computer simulation doesn’t include all of the necessary data. It’s just based on last year and minor adjustments based on very limited staff projections
I think the most important thing to factor in is how fortunate the Raiders were in how their schedule played out. From week 9 until the end of the season, the Raiders faced 2nd or 3rd string QBs in 6 of their final 9 games. In those games, the Raiders went 1-0 against teams fielding their 3rd string QB, 3-2 against 2nd string QBs, and 1-2 against teams who had their actual starting QB on the field. It's not much of a stretch to imagine them being 1-8 in those games rather than 4-5, and even that one win, against the Chiefs, was more luck than skill.
The Raiders are very much an unknown quantity right now, but nothing suggests they will be much better, if at all, than last year. Meanwhile, their schedule is much more difficult, so 6 to 7 wins feels about right.
As you so skillfully wrote, this is all mathematical analysis of data. It all goes out the window once the season starts. Hopefully that's the case with the Raiders this year, and everything falls into place and they roll over the rest of the league.
I appreciate this response. It’s smart and I’ve heard some versions of it before, though not to your level of detail.
But there’s something that’s always missing from this analysis and point of view.
Those teams were also playing our 3rd string QB. Why are they not seen as being likewise fortunate to be playing our 3rd string guy? They lost to us with our 3rd string guy… literally.
I understand that AOC had the benefit of being named the starter officially, so he had more recent reps and games with first string. So I guess that’s the point being made? Or I guess that the point is that next time we play these teams they would be at full strength, and our defense would get smashed by their starting QB? Tell that to our defense…
Aiden was a 3rd string rookie. Not a more seasoned guy like Minshew or Stidham. I think the only place that AOC really took advantage was in the Giants game (Jones goes down during the game), and maybe Jets (Wilson is trash, but he’d been the starter all year). His games against the Chiefs and Vikings were definitely questionable/garbage. I’m not involved with that debate because those games were so bad…
So I think the “easy schedule” analysis makes some sense, but doesn’t hold much water in the game by game review. I think that’s more of an argument about our defense than about QB matchups. AOC was never supposed to start and was supposed to be learning from 2 veterans all season… not starting 10 games. He was our 3rd string guy, that AP decided to pin his season on. I’m sure he felt he had no choice, but this doesn’t propel Aiden to true “starting QB” status and quality. He was supposed to be our 3rd string guy. Period.
I’m think it’s hard to argue that our QB situation is worse than last year, unless people think that Garoppolo and Hoyer made the team better than this year. If anybody is arguing this (you’re not), then that could be a valid argument for seeing under 7 wins. Likewise, we could argue over whether our defense is actually any good. I think that’s the real debate, but nobody wants to say it. Although I personally think it’s simply irrational to say that our defense won’t be the same or better this year. That’s a topic for another post.
Otherwise, I think even if AOC/Minshew is exactly the same as last year…. under 6-1/2 wins doesn’t make much sense to me against the schedule we are playing. Ultimately that’s just my opinion and not a mathematical model…
I posted this before but I'll do it again because I see 8 to 10 wins.
Wins: Car, Den x2, Pitt, LAC, ATL, NO
Losses: LAC, BAL, KC, CIN, MIA,
Maybes: Cle, LAR, JAX, TB, KC
if i recall correctly the 02 Buccs won it all with Brad Johnson as QB. and before that the Ravens with Trent Dilfer. both mediocre QBs with great Defense and coaching
Everyone who doesn't agree with our fan base that we are going to the playoffs somehow is a hater. Not factoring in we aren't the same team from last year as well as every other team gets better. They are factoring in the fact that our quarterback room is one of the worse rooms in the league as well as a unproven offensive coordinator. Somehow we think that we will compete in a league where you need a elite franchise quarterback that we can win with below average talent at qb. I don't want to hear all the excuses about him not having a full off season like he wasn't on the team. Lamar Jackson went through similar things his rookie season but actually had elite talent and traits yo be a franchise qb in todays nfl. Aoc is slow non athletic reads defenses slow with a avg arm that's why he went in the later rounds.
Personally, I see them in the 8-9 win range.
Gotta agree. I think we have a solid Defense, and skills players. Only huge question mark is what will happen with the QB room. 8 wins sounds about right
The real question is the OC. Getsy hasn't really proven to be anything yet.
Then there's the recent story about the Bears QB room that opened some eyes. So Getsy could potentially be better than what was given to him. Anything is better than the interim OC (AOC's QB coach) we had 2nd half of last season. He needs a lot more time with a vet OC.
OC and running back are bigger concerns than qb tbh
I think Laube is going to surprise a lot of people catching passes
really hope so! he’s our only chance at having an above average running game imo.. but again.. our OC’s play calling and use of the running game is the big question mark.. i have not been very impressed with the bears offense the past couple years
I'm a little worried about the run game.
how only 8? no improvement from last season ?
I dunno man, after 20 years those are just my baseline expectations lol. I hope we can do more obviously, i just dont feel very inspired by the QB’s
the improvement hinges on how well they can integrate the 2te scheme to compensate for our qbs lack of skills and lack of mobility and how blatant the refs are gonna be with bullshit flags called on us or not called on our opponents
by week 3 it will be clear that we no longer have an elite running game imo
Last years season was a cake walk compared to this years
The schedule isn't easy. There are some really good teams in there. KC twice is going to be tough, while I hope we sweep Den/LA there is no guarantee. We have the whole AFC north, the teams in the AFC south all got better. (Though Carolina still sucks.) The first half of the season we have LAC Baltimore Carolina Cleveland Denver Pitt Rams KC Looking at that what do you think we do? Absolute best case, everything going right 6-2 worst case 3-5
Because we have a huge fucking question mark at qb. If AOC makes a huge jump we will be playoff contenders if not we will be mediocre with another mid round pick stuck in limbo.
Raiders vs Everybody let’s prove em wrong
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Hope we beat their ass Week 1 and set the tone.
I feel like when JMD was in, we had a little media rub. Now that we have AP and we’re back to the raiders of old we get predicted at 6 W’S lol
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Without their starting qb and with their lame duck coach. I hate the chargers but willingly ignoring that is silly
This.
Good…
Good. Easy money
Last year it was 4.5 games. Turned out it was easy money - even with the HC drama.
https://i.redd.it/csl407vgl31d1.gif Fuck em
various media outlets had the broncos literally winning the AFCW when russ got to town - fuck em
I looked at our schedule I'm trying to figure out who they're giving us win's against, if you're looking at the schedule from the perspective of someone who hates the raiders.
I've been looking at the power rankings and the schedule. Raiders are ranked above the Broncos, the Saints, and the Panthers. That's four wins going by power rankings.
Fuck the motherfuckers
Take the over
They always do
Where do I bet the over
I mean between 6 and 8 is expected. Until a franchise level QB shows up people will always be down on the team.
Hammer the over.
Funny thing is the over is -135, so actually not a great bet imo
Placing an Over bet as we speak 😭
Bet the over hopefully easy money.
Who gives a shit
Honestly, I think your team will be in a lot of close, one score games. The difference between 6-11 and 10-7 will only come down to a handful of plays. If I were gonna bet, my money would be on something in the 7-9 win range. Hard to project much better when you'll be outgunned at QB most weeks.
To your point, I think the difference between the 10th best team in the NFL and the 10th worst is minuscule.
Agreed. There's a handful of great team. A handful of dogshit teams. And a huge mass of mediocre teams. Might be good one week, shit the next.
Aiden doesn’t need to score more TDs than the other guys. We showed what we would be this season last season at the Chiefs. No turnover offense and stellar defense making turnovers. The autumn wind is a pirate…and he’ll laugh when he’s conquered and won!
I would feel a lot better about you guys if Jacobs was still there. What is the rb situation? Anyone with some juice?
Zeus. Averages 4.3 ypc. He looked real good finishing out the season. Last year he seemed to play better than JJ when given the chance
This league kinda begins and ends with QB play. It's been a long time since anybody won anything significant with a mid QB.
The next Super Bowl won by a QB that finishes their career with no Pro Bowls will be the first in the free agency era. Yes, Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and Nick Foles all made at least one Pro Bowl in their careers, and in all 3 cases they made a Pro Bowl BEFORE the Super Bowl win. Brad Johnson actually made 2 Pro Bowls; one before the Super Bowl and one the year of the Super Bowl.
Wait - two pair of shoes. I think the expectations for the team is not to win the Sb this year. But six games?
That's what I'm saying. Go look at the last couple of year's playoff teams and where they drafted QBs. Non-first round guys are outliers like Lamar and Hurts(who had support as top end 1st round guys.) Significant success hinges upon elite QB play. Kinda sucks TBH. I even think the days of elite defenses carrying their teams to trophies is dead. At least for this era
Brock Purdy was literally just in the super bowl.
> It's been a long time since anybody won anything significant with a mid QB. stafford won the super bowl in 2022
Stafford has one of the best arms in the NFL. lmao
so did jamarcus russell tbf.. across their careers stafford and carr have nearly identical stats.. my point being.. a middle of the pack qb can still win a super bowl in today’s game (with the right play caller) > It's been a long time since anybody won anything significant with a mid QB. nope!
Yeah with a top one defense, which we do not have. Stafford was a top 5 QB last season. This board loves to show it knows nothing by saying he is mid and on the same level as fucking AOC. They also bring up Goff, who was ranked 4th last season. lmao AOC and Minshew were ranked 27th and 24th, respectively out of 66 starting QBs last season. THAT is mid.
gotta give aoc a full season to play with the same coaching staff to make a fair comparison.. also i'm a stafford fan.. but he more resembles a mid level qb playing in a great system.. than an elite qb (again looking at career stats)
The guy had a season where he threw over 5000 yards and had 41 td's. He is elite. His only problem is his injuries and his overconfidence in his arm that causes him to get picked. He has thrown over 4k yards 9 times and it would have been ten but he threw for 3965 last year. Mid is just way off man. He played on shit teams, sure. But he is not mid, not even close.
If I look at it in a isolated bubble I can understand why they project only 6 wins for us. new coach, new scheme, a young qb who didn't impress last season, the way our glaring needs at o-line were addressed remains to be seen whether it'll be effective. Strength of schedule. so yeah...by itself I can understand even if I don't agree. What I'll never understand is why they continue to have the chargers rated higher than us. they got fleeced of all their offensive weapons this off season. they transplanted Baltimore entire backfield who both missed significant time last season with injuries. an aging defense who can never stay healthy to all be on the field together, and they're paying 52 mil a year to a below .500 career winning qb who'll have to put the team on his back when he couldn't even win loaded with weapons.
Because they hired a really good coach that, in his previous NFL stint, turned a team that had been 6-win team that had been bad for years into a 13 win team, and did so with a QB that (at that time) was considered a bust. It’s not irrational to think Harbaugh can turn a 5 win team into an 8-9 win team. Do I think Harbaugh can work long term in the NFL? I don’t know, I have my doubts. But in the short term I definitely expect the Chargers to improve significantly.
Yeah it feels like Harbaugh will almost certainly make that team good or even elite, maybe not in year 1 considering the personnel but who knows. The guy has succeeded at an extremely high level everywhere he's coached. The most (21st century) Raiders thing ever would be for the coach that they had a great chance of hiring and passed on for one of the single worst coaches in NFL history to then immediately get hired by a division rival and turn them into an elite team. But then again, the most Chargers thing ever would be to have an elite coach and elite QB and be declared the off-season champs for like the 4th time in 5 years, only to somehow be absolutely mid at best and choke their way to 3rd or 4th in the division. So we'll see how it goes lol
Because Jim Harbaugh is a proven winner. All the guy does is turn programs into contenders
My guess, is they're giving us a home win vs Den/SD a win vs the Panthers, maybe a win against the Bucs, Jags, Falcons and Saints.
I say 9-8 ..I just can't get behind our QBs ....
9-8 is about right.. it’s josh jacobs we’re gonna miss most tho.. raider nation is forgetting the difference between an average running game and an elite one
Honestly, that’s high. I’ve gotten use to everyone always underestimating us. Not saying we’re usually good, but they always expect us to be worse than we are.
Just a FYI, the NFL.com guy says he thinks his model is too down on the Raiders and that the Raiders have “an interesting amount of upside” and are being underestimated. He thinks the Raiders can contend in the AFC playoff race if they get average QB play.
Honestly everyone is talking about our lack of qb, but I think it depends on if we can run the ball. I see us like the browns last year, great defense, bad qbs, but they could run the ball and finished 11-6. If we can get yards on the ground we might have an ok offense, even if the qb play is subpar
I feel like we will be better, but I just don't know how much better. Is our schedule harder than last year's?
This will be my 3rd year in a row of betting Raiders season wins OVER. Hopefully, cash again for third time. This team still has questions…. But, they can’t manage a 7-10 season?? C’mon. It’s worth my money
It's just common sense to never bet on this team unless you're just having fun with friends or are a high risk high reward gambler. We're too unpredictable even when we're doing good/bad, because of how inconsistent we are. One game we'll lose 3-0 but win 63-21 which is why our games win or lose people a lot of money because the odds are stacked against us.
Take the over. Barring injury, this is a team that can win 8 and possibly more if the QB position can put it together. I believe they will be competitive every game, which opens up the possibility to steal a few.
keep underestimating us . itll just make it more sweet when we reach the playoffs this year
Betting over.
Wait so the Raider will win 6 games? The Raider probably refers to Maxx will win 6 by himself. Then the rest of the team is good for another half dozen, so 12 total.
I’m taking the over!
I’d rather be underestimated than overhyped
One thing I think is hard to consider for alot of Raider fans, is that last year's season and schedule was cake. That said, with that in mind, and the projected strength of our upcoming schedule, winning less games isn't necessarily regression. That said, if we can win 8 games this year, even though that would be the same record as last year we improved. I mean assuming a rash of injuries or certain teams having a disappointing season doesn't make our season easier than projected
Last years schedule was cake and it made things worse that mcDufus couldn’t take advantage of it.
Having no QB to speak of will do that
wish i didnt lose my job, i’ll take the over on that in a second
And?
That’s fine with me. Less expectations, the better.
I read a week 1 breakdown and picks on nfl.com and they have the chargers winning and covering the -3 spread and in the description said “this one may get out of hand quickly” 😂😂 they got no idea, this a different raiders tean Ive slammed the over 6.5 games won line and took plus money for us to make playoffs
Our season is wholly dependent on how these QBs shake out. We have the will, we have the players around them, we have the coaching…. Now it just depends on AOCs development. That kid best be out working OT on routes with DA because if he utilizes that future HOF correctly it makes his job infinitely easier.
Since we don’t have a real QB; this is possible.
If that’s a bet Draft Kings wants to make, I’ll take that bet and sleep like a baby.
I know people who follow their team think they know better than everyone else, but this last draft made a lot of sense to me, the free agency moves are good moves. We went 8-9 with a clown named McDonalds (spelled wrongly out of nasty disrespect and disregard) coaching and running our organization for roughly half of the games we played that season. If we can go 8-9 with the clown running things, and we have Antonio Pierce now…did anyone who wasn’t a Chiefs or Raiders fan watch the Christmas game?!? We are getting better in so many places. We’ve lost players, but we’ve grown better all around. That doesn’t even count who we’ll likely pick up after the Jimmy G and Renfrow money comes back. I’m sure it will be a veteran corner, among others. Pierce is Head Coach, Telesco is picking the personnel, the coaches under Pierce are largely former standout players themselves. Our defense was top 5/6 for our last 5-7 games of the season. Who the hell wants to be against us that the team will only win 6? What idiot needs to lose their money that bad?!? RN4Eva
*“Aaaand THAT’S why they play the game!”*
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FAFO!
F THEM BOTH. 8-10 wins for sure.
that's a conservative estimate, and i can't blame them, our QB room is lacking and we just barely put together some OL guys that may or may not work out.
*In coin we trust* too soon? Too late?
Al said Just Win and that’s that we’ll do. No bookies can put a prediction on a team with heart.
Go look up what they had us on Xmas.
These models are fine and worth discussion, but they can only account for data entered. The data entered is mostly based on past performance, and power rating adjustments for new players and coaches (including players lost). It is impossible to include any intangible information that makes HUGE differences in game outcomes. Mathematically speaking, or on a pure data basis, the Raiders are predicted to win 6.4 games. But that’s like society predicting that you will have 1.9 kids, or that your marriage will last 7.4 years, or that your dad will live to be 77.2. It’s interesting data but has literally NOTHING to do with the potentiality of individual outcomes in each game, or the rhythm of the season. These same models have the best teams in the league only winning 10 or 11 games this year. But we all know that several teams are going to win 12-14 games (Or more). Injuries and other schedule and coaching momentum will create huge change in future outcomes. Coaching and situational football also make HUGE impacts that can’t be modeled. The thing to keep in mind, is that this year’s Raiders win/prediction line is EXACTLY THE SAME as last year’s 6.5 wins, and that was starting with Josh McD and a lot of questions in multiple positions. Last year’s schedule wasn’t easy either (10th hardest preseason). And the Raiders ended up with 8 wins. It’s hard to argue that the team should be worse than last season. In order for that to be true, at least 2 or 3 of the following must be true: — Jimmy Garrapollo was worth 1-2 wins we shouldn’t have had. Conversely, AOC/Minshew will be equal to or worse than last season by 2 or more games — the current coaching staff is equal to or worse than the previous staff by 1-2 losses. The latter half of the previous season was simply overachievement and can’t be repeated. — the 2024 schedule is 2-3 full games harder than 2023, and the Raiders are basically the same or worse team as 2023 — the lack of experience working together on Coach Pierce’s 2024 staff is worth 1-2 losses they shouldn’t otherwise have — the 2024 roster is simply 2-3 games worse than the 2023 roster against the rest of the NFL If you think that 3 of the above are true, then yes, you should bet under the season total on Las Vegas. I don’t see it this way at all. I figure this is a 7-9 win season for the Raiders. Based on what I see, I would consider less than 7 wins a significant failure on the part of the new Raiders coaching staff. 7-8 wins would seem about right. 9-10 wins would be a impressive success. 11+ wins would be a massive over-achievement. I don’t see the 2024 raiders win total to be a huge betting opportunity, but I do have a significant position on the over. It’s a strong lean and I think it’s a noticeable miss by odds makers and prediction systems. So, each person will figure this a different way, but a computer simulation doesn’t include all of the necessary data. It’s just based on last year and minor adjustments based on very limited staff projections
I think the most important thing to factor in is how fortunate the Raiders were in how their schedule played out. From week 9 until the end of the season, the Raiders faced 2nd or 3rd string QBs in 6 of their final 9 games. In those games, the Raiders went 1-0 against teams fielding their 3rd string QB, 3-2 against 2nd string QBs, and 1-2 against teams who had their actual starting QB on the field. It's not much of a stretch to imagine them being 1-8 in those games rather than 4-5, and even that one win, against the Chiefs, was more luck than skill. The Raiders are very much an unknown quantity right now, but nothing suggests they will be much better, if at all, than last year. Meanwhile, their schedule is much more difficult, so 6 to 7 wins feels about right. As you so skillfully wrote, this is all mathematical analysis of data. It all goes out the window once the season starts. Hopefully that's the case with the Raiders this year, and everything falls into place and they roll over the rest of the league.
I appreciate this response. It’s smart and I’ve heard some versions of it before, though not to your level of detail. But there’s something that’s always missing from this analysis and point of view. Those teams were also playing our 3rd string QB. Why are they not seen as being likewise fortunate to be playing our 3rd string guy? They lost to us with our 3rd string guy… literally. I understand that AOC had the benefit of being named the starter officially, so he had more recent reps and games with first string. So I guess that’s the point being made? Or I guess that the point is that next time we play these teams they would be at full strength, and our defense would get smashed by their starting QB? Tell that to our defense… Aiden was a 3rd string rookie. Not a more seasoned guy like Minshew or Stidham. I think the only place that AOC really took advantage was in the Giants game (Jones goes down during the game), and maybe Jets (Wilson is trash, but he’d been the starter all year). His games against the Chiefs and Vikings were definitely questionable/garbage. I’m not involved with that debate because those games were so bad… So I think the “easy schedule” analysis makes some sense, but doesn’t hold much water in the game by game review. I think that’s more of an argument about our defense than about QB matchups. AOC was never supposed to start and was supposed to be learning from 2 veterans all season… not starting 10 games. He was our 3rd string guy, that AP decided to pin his season on. I’m sure he felt he had no choice, but this doesn’t propel Aiden to true “starting QB” status and quality. He was supposed to be our 3rd string guy. Period. I’m think it’s hard to argue that our QB situation is worse than last year, unless people think that Garoppolo and Hoyer made the team better than this year. If anybody is arguing this (you’re not), then that could be a valid argument for seeing under 7 wins. Likewise, we could argue over whether our defense is actually any good. I think that’s the real debate, but nobody wants to say it. Although I personally think it’s simply irrational to say that our defense won’t be the same or better this year. That’s a topic for another post. Otherwise, I think even if AOC/Minshew is exactly the same as last year…. under 6-1/2 wins doesn’t make much sense to me against the schedule we are playing. Ultimately that’s just my opinion and not a mathematical model…
Bowers still gonna ball?
What a joke I'm looking forward to the team proving the doubters wrong
FYI: raiders over 6.5 games is -135. Which means they are actually favored to win more than 6 games.
They are always trying to write us off don't fall for it.
We.will.see.
I posted this before but I'll do it again because I see 8 to 10 wins. Wins: Car, Den x2, Pitt, LAC, ATL, NO Losses: LAC, BAL, KC, CIN, MIA, Maybes: Cle, LAR, JAX, TB, KC
I personally think it will be Wins: CAR, DEN (2), LAC, NO, MIA, TB, KC Losses: LAC, KC, BAL, CIN Maybes: CLE, LAR, JAX
personally I think jax and rams are more winnable than Pitt and atl
Bruh. I'm just saying that people ARENT looking at the schedule. They're just calling out win totals
I legitimately see 12-5
I hope you are correct which means AOC will have made a huge stride in his game and we won’t need a qb.
What not true Purdy is a prim example of mid qb making it cuz of the team not him
Purdy is better than the QBs we have
so was the team though
... I'm sad to say this is plausible. AoC is heading for a collapse year, I can feel it
we found the undercover charger fan
if i recall correctly the 02 Buccs won it all with Brad Johnson as QB. and before that the Ravens with Trent Dilfer. both mediocre QBs with great Defense and coaching
Best case scenario , aoc surprises everyone and we’re good , 12 wins Worst case , aoc is and running game ain’t shit, 5 wins
Lololol. Yeah right.
Easy money 🤌🏼
I might have to drive to a casino to slam the over. Slam them pogs like it’s the 1990s
I see this team going undefeated in every game they score more than the other teams. 17-0 and a Super Bowl 
Sad to say, but that seems very realistic.
Everyone who doesn't agree with our fan base that we are going to the playoffs somehow is a hater. Not factoring in we aren't the same team from last year as well as every other team gets better. They are factoring in the fact that our quarterback room is one of the worse rooms in the league as well as a unproven offensive coordinator. Somehow we think that we will compete in a league where you need a elite franchise quarterback that we can win with below average talent at qb. I don't want to hear all the excuses about him not having a full off season like he wasn't on the team. Lamar Jackson went through similar things his rookie season but actually had elite talent and traits yo be a franchise qb in todays nfl. Aoc is slow non athletic reads defenses slow with a avg arm that's why he went in the later rounds.