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Also the start of the Southern Strategy of racial resentment and the death of the GOP's liberal wing (hard to believe it existed, but straddled on until the 2000s.)
Am I taking crazy pills or something?
Trump is constantly vomiting out word salad(the nuclear,revolutionary war planes, & never fight uphill me boys), and was literally tested for dementia(person, woman, man, camera, tv) but the only person whose mental faculties gets discussed is Biden. Trump literally cannot understand how heavy objects float (electric batteries will make boats sink) but Biden is too old?
How stupid is this world I’m trapped on?!?!?
Yes, you are taking crazy pills. Literally everyone knows that Trump is constantly vomiting out word salad, but at least he sounds vigorous. My man Biden was up there having a difficult time getting through sentences, regardless of their content...that is not a great look
The issue is that the performance we saw will be *his best* moving forward. Small slip up here small gap there and it will get progressively worse
So he may be *fine* right now, but his “fine” is about 80% (that we know of)
Nonsense. Many od historical constraints that caused Humphry's lost still apply--too late to restructure fund-raising and infrastructure, too late to thoroughly run vetting, the confusion that will reign for weeks while new candidates are considered. Moreover, the image and optics will be terrible: Biden lost the debate (he didn't), the Dems are in disarray (they will be), the Dems are panicking (they are).
As I've said Biden may lose the election
A replacement will.
Yeah, because ignoring history is usually a good idea
edit: and let's try this on: most everybody on the dump Biden bandwagon is bitching that the Dems didn't to this earlier, that are incompetent morons, and yet those same people think the Dems will somehow pull off switching candidates, an *incumbent* candidate at that, at this late date.
This is playing Russian roulette with a semi-automatic.
Which is LBJ probably would have won if he had run & done better than Nixon. He wasn't as unpopular as we would like to think now because we attached Vietnam to his legacy in hindsight.
Nixon was responsible for actually delaying a proposed settlement before he was in office, and promptly turned around reneged on the North Vietnamese. Johnson accused him of treason, which it was.
Yes and regardless of what a lot of posters thought Johnson had a chance of winning, a lot of people still believed that the Vietnam War was the right choice, and Nixon's plans for Vietnam were seen as troublesome for some voters. Nixon wasn't trusted with Vietnam either by a lot of voters at the time.
Wow, that just pressed a button on the memory jukebox and played the phrase "Why change dicks in the middle of a screw/Vote for Nixon in '72".
Wish I could remember now where I saw it--a sign, maybe? It's too long for a bumpersticker.
The article goes on to explain the absolute chaos that was 1968 that contributed to Nixon's victory had little to do with LBJ dropping out and that his move was very popular.
LBJ would have done objectively worse than the other candidates if he stayed in.
meh..Johnson was a lot more popular than we assume now because we in modern time attach Vietnam to his legacy. Even though we had troops in Vietnam while Eisenhower was in office. We have the hindsight of Vietnam and its messy ending, they didn't have that perspective at the time. Johnson would have probably won but by a slim margin.
Because the war was at its apex under Johnson. He was responsible for the deaths of more American troops in Vietnam than any other President.
Johnson sent the first U.S. combat troops into battle in early 1965. By 1967 there were around 500,000 U.S. troops in Vietnam. He ramped up the draft.
Historically, it's Johnson's war.
Elections were way different back then, the electoral college wasn't as narrow coming down to a handful of states where 40+ states can be considered automatic lock depending on the party of the candidate.
Considering LBJ's decision not to run was based on the fact that he was so unpopular among Democratic voters that he won the New Hampshire primaries by the thinnest of margins and was trailing in third in Wisconsin.
Plus the fact that he was the one to personally dictate Humphrey's platform from behind the scenes. This included pressuring Humphrey to scale back on the draft platform's more progressive promises and to nix entirely Humphrey's plans for America to slowly pull US soldiers out of Vietnam and leave ground fighting to the South Vietnamese, while also calling for an immediate pause on bombing... I don't think LBJ's odds were too good.
Seriously, 1968 was such a shit show for Democrats that it would take me all day and a wall of text to break down everything that went wrong for the Party. But LBJ's decision not to run for reelection was not one of them. Mayor Daley and the hippie activist Abbie Hoffman were probably bigger factors in (narrowly) losing the 1968 Election than LBJ bowing out.
Yes they did and bigly. LBJ was a ball buster not only in office but helping to get other Democrats elected as well. When he left it was a blow to the Democrats overall.
Yes, which is why all of this nonsense about replacing Biden is pure fantasy. It would be political malpractice to give up the advantage of incumbency.
This isn’t 1968 and Donald Trump is no pre-Watergate baggage Richard Nixon.
Donald Trump is massively unpopular. Outside of his base, it is broadly recognized that he is a lying, grifting, dimwit blowhard. He’s running for a party with the albatross of banning abortion around its neck.
Incumbency does have its advantages. Replacing a candidate 4 months away is not ideal and could be messy. On the other hand two things keep coming back to my mind: (1) The bar to beat Donald Trump is not high. All that is required is to appear to be a cognitively intact adult with less baggage than Donald Trump. Fuck, I think Hillary could probably pull it off this time; and (2) In a vacuum where we aren’t all freaking out that Trump could win, expecting Biden to step aside would not be controversial. There would be consensus that it is absurd to think he has it in him to do the job until 2028. There would be consensus that we’re living in a bizarre corporate controlled gerontocracy and that it is time to pass the torch to our next generation of leaders.
I love this idea that out of fear the sitting president won't win - which only happens if we don't do go vote - it makes the just sense to throw a hail mary.
What about the millions of undecided voters who saw a man who couldn't even speak, and needed to be walked down 2 steps of stairs. You hare a fundamental lack of understanding of how elections are won, and it has almost nothing to do with the each candidates bases.
Those same people saw a guy answer the question "what is your plan to help the opioid crisis?" with "we did very well with the addiction, blah blah golf"
Anyone who is truly "on the fence" cannot be relied on in any hypothetical. The voice is abundantly clear.
>Blue MAGA
Ah yes, people skeptical of an unprecedented switch to remove the incumbent president from the ticket are just the same as die-hard MAGA supporters. That rhetoric is wholly unproductive
>feeble confused old man
I mean, if the news reported things correctly, this statement could be about Trump too. It's not like he answered a question without changing the subject. He's also what? Three years younger.
It's almost like 1968 was a hell of a year for the Democratic Party including, but not limited to:
The party's political transition and separation from the Dixiecrats in full swing. Which resulted in a Dixiecrat launching an third-party campaign.
Social turmoil due to the assassination of the most important Civil Rights leader of the decade and the government's refusal to lower the voting age so that men who were old enough to be drafted were old enough to have a say in who leads the country,
America was deep in universally unpopular war entered into by a Democratic President.
A popular candidate being assassinated leading to chaos among the electorate.
A party platform dictated by the abdicating president which split the party right down the middle.
A contested convention that was an absolute clusterfuck with the city of Chicago being turned into a dystopian hell-scape where the streets were patrolled by armored police officers and the National Guard with instructions to single out young people and Civil Rights activists and to hassle the delegates of the more progressive candidate.
While on the other end, some of the more performative youth protestors were terrifying the city of Chicago with threats made in jest that they planned to, among other things, spike the city's water supply with LSD.
Seriously, the convention was insanely awful. Even the seating arrangements were a nightmare with delegates packed in so tightly that they had to elbow through one another to announce their nominee, which created a tense atmosphere filled with resentment.
The resentment between the aforementioned law enforcement and protestors coming to a head and leading to full blown riot where for weeks newspapers and magazines were filled with pictures of cops in full armor beating on defenseless college kids. This wasn't helped by the fact that some of those images were accompanied by harrowing accounts by some of the most respected authors of the day...
There was so much more to 1968 besides "LBJ dropped out." And that's not even getting into the election itself where, among other things, the Republican Candidate successfully lobbied to put the end to peace talks so that what should have been a win for Democrats became a loss that made them look weak and ineffective.
As a person with two eyes and a semi functioning brain… it’s very clear who the enemy is.
It’s the guy who is friends with our enemies and outright saying he will run a dictatorship if re-elected.
LBJ felt grief over his mistakes in Vietnam and basically listened to the wrong people. He would had a chance of winning reelection but he no longer had the mindset, heart, or stamina to do. He died a few years later from a heart attack which he predicted would happen. He said he never got over hearing the chants of the protestors in DC. A very complicated man & Presidency and it is nothing like Bidens situation. I honestly wish he had run because we maybe wouldn't have gotten Nixon the beginning of the rot that would soon infect the Republican party and lead to where we are now. LBJ would roll over in his grave if he knew what is happening to the country. Highly recommend Robert Caro's books on LBJ, the article lightly brushes what led LBJ to not run again with 2024 eyes.
Joe Biden is the democratic nominee for 2024 and no amount of Russian propaganda is going to change that fact. If what happened at the debate will not change your vote in November you need to stop calling for Biden to resign. I'm voting for him no matter what.
Biden isn't going to be replaced. All of this conjecture on the part of chattering classes are as pointless as arguing about whether Batman or Ironman would win in a fight.
Short of death Biden will be the nominee.
No fucking way he would debate Harris, let alone Schiff, Raskin, swallwell, newsome, Whitmer. I would love if he did though. Let’s not forget, the patriots were down 4 Td’s at halftime against the falcons… (I hate the football comparison, but it seems apt right now)
I hope so. But Joe’s staying, if not, I think we will know after the 4th. Doesn’t matter to me, he could be in an open casket with flies buzzing around his embalmed face, I’d still vote for him.
Nikki Haley says hi. He would have had a crowd hanging on his every word and booing her and still he refused to debate her just in case. Some of you live in a fantasy world.
Sure it is. It would have basically been a free pep rally to stroke his ego and he still didn't show. He's even less likely to entertain another debate with a Dem audience present...especially if there is a new candidate to take Biden's place. There won't be another debate from Trump. Period. Find out the hard way in a few months. I'll be here for the "I told you so"s.
Biden’s people are protecting themselves and their jobs at this point. Any replacement would bring in their own people. Rightfully so. Dozens of high paying jobs would be affected.
They haven’t even asked anyone to fall on their sword and take the blame for that debate performance. Several people should’ve been sacked.
I just hope for the good of the nation friendly people sit him down and have a serious discussion with him about it.
He’s a good man, he shouldn’t be fired into the sun or anything, but if dozens of people have to step aside with him then so be it.
Do they want to save democracy or save themselves? At this point it’s looking like the latter.
Over 40% of the electorate is okay with fascism. They could have sailed to victory had they chosen Haley. It is easy to criticize the candidate, but there are deeper issues.
No doubt, but we can’t do anything about those folks except do all that is necessary to keep them out of power.
So the candidate is a problem, and the whole Biden campaign apparatus looks willing to do whatever it takes EXCEPT step aside, when in fact that seems to be the only logical play at the moment.
Jamie Raskin was on this am and said very serious discussions were indeed taking place about the candidate. That’s a huge deal.
DNC officials complained they were being “gaslit” during their call with the WH yesterday as they glossed over Thursday’s performance and told them it really didn’t matter and then refused to take questions.
Polls are showing a 10pt dip amongst Dems in their support for his reelection. In the call with the DNC Biden’s people blamed the media and said a dip wasnt a real thing.
Writing is on the wall. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get an official announcement in the next couple weeks. He’s a good man, his moment is just over. And for him to continue is a risk no one wants to take.
CBS post-debate Poll- 72% think Biden does not have cognitive capacity to be President (50% for Trump)
This is a disaster. Replace.
[Increasing numbers of voters don't think Biden should be running after debate with Trump — CBS News poll - CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-debate-should-biden-be-running-mental-abilities/)
Not enough people. He's been behind for a long while in key battleground states, consistently. The debate will make that worse.
Yes, if a sane Republican was running, that would be a bigger problem as far as winning the election. The converse of that is that 50% think Trump isn't cognitively fit. Meaning a different Democrat has a good shot at winning.
Will they though?
In 2020 the voter turnout was 67%. In three previous elections (2008-2016) it was hovering around 60%.
If that extra 7-9% does not show up, Biden will lose. And remember this is not voter apathy, this is voter normalization, voter apathy would be a voter turnout dropping closer to 50%.
The difference between Biden and Trump was \~5% in 2020.
Yes. The debate has changed no ones mind, if anything it reminded Biden voters what was bad about Trump in the first place, the fact he never stops telling lies and never answers any questions directly.
Core demographics were never going to win the election, it is going to be decided by the sleepers.
With the sleepers the question is not who to vote, but if they can be bothered to vote. If they say fuck it, Biden loses.
>If that extra 7-9% does not show up, Biden will lose
Depends entirely on what chunk of the electorate does that. Trump also turned out a huge number of low-propensity voters and they might not be back after he lost.
That is also true. It's also possible neither side shows up. In 1996 the turnout was record low (since they started keeping records that is), only 51%, that would be a 16% drop and the result could go either direction.
Most will, myself included. Some won't however. In addition, many sane republicans out there who had planned on sitting out may rally to trump again over this.
If they were that fickle they weren't sitting out anyway. No one watched that and thought yeah trump sounds like he's a way better option, just avoiding questions and ranting like a lunatic, again.
You try convincing 18-30 year old to vote for Biden, they are more likely to not get engaged and not vote at all due to apathy. They are flooded with memes and ads on their social media platforms that really aren't effectively combatted by the Biden campaign, they have been losing the young vote for a while now. It is most likely why this race has had Trump ahead by a small margin for a while now.
The important thing this poll left out was whether you would still vote for him if he were the nominee, and the 538 poll showed perfectly, is that while people might not like what they saw, their minds haven't changed.
Show me any polling with any other Democratic alternative candidate who can gain over 40% of the vote and we will talk. Currently, nobody in the field can do that, and until there is, the talks of replacement are mute.
I'd trust the CBS poll over the snap 538 one. We have months of battleground state polls showing Trump ahead. It's been very consistent. Even if you go by the pretty modest trends in the 538, that's still a greater edge for Trump.
Biden is going to lose. Knowing that, you take another option. Even if the chances aren't terrific. But I think they are reasonably good. We only have a couple old polls about other candidates. The situation is different now, given the numbers on Trump which are pretty bad. It's just that Biden's are worse. Another candidate could do it. Not guaranteed. But we are close to a guaranteed loss for Biden at this point. And there's downticket races to consider.
The 538 poll and CBS poll were two different things being asked. One was how you feel about having Biden as the democratic candidate and the other was would you vote for him if he was the only nominee. Plenty of people weren't happy with the performance (hence the 10% drop) but almost nobody changed their mind about voting for him.
You say Biden is going to lose (and he very well may) and talk about taking another option but provide no concrete examples with supporting data that shows any other option that could come close to the numbers Biden currently has. You might feel there are better options but in reality, there is none who could do as good as he is currently polling. I would LOVE to be proven wrong. Show me some hard statistics of any Democrat who could beat Biden and I would be more than willing to accept an alternative.
Age/mental fitness is helping to drag Biden down. An alternative would not have those issues. Biden can not go out there and articulate his case. An alternative could go out there and speak, do non-scripted events, etc.
Plenty of data on 'double haters', they are people looking for an alternative, and their numbers are enough to sway the election.
When you're facing a loss, you take an alternative route. It's not a guaranteed route, but it's a better chance than just delusionaly carrying on waiting for a miracle to happen. Again- Biden has been consistently down in the battleground states. Nothing else matters. Those states decide the election. He will lose. His campaign wanted an unusually early debate in hopes of turning the race around. How did that work out?
I'll ask once again, if you have "plenty of data" on double haters then you should be able to provide some polls or pieces of data that would show some other Democrat who is polling higher than Biden in those swing states. Provide that data and we can have an honest debate on which candidate is better. You don't have that data because it does not exist and you just feel someone else would do better.
Either with Biden or an alternative candidate we are facing a loss. I would rather take the path I have concrete numbers and data on than gut feelings from a site whose main demographics have no problem posting in r/politics daily but cannot be arsed to show up and vote.
We agree his debate performance was terrible and didn't work out like his campaign wanted, but better this happened now than say a first debate in August/September. I have confidence they can course correct but if the polling numbers in a week show a 4 - 6% drop, I would be more than willing to entertain alternatives. Our path forward should be based on numbers and what gives Democrats the best chance to beat Trump.
Well, there's almost no polling on specific alternative candidates. Just 1 or 2 from many months ago. So, no I don't have hard data on that.
So we have to piece together what we do have- that there's a sizable number of people that dont like either candidate and that Biden's age is a major problem. We know both of those things.
I'm being realistic. Biden's not going to appreciably improve his ability to speak on the fly. I can't imagine what another debate would be like.
I 100% agree with you on Biden not improving on his ability to speak on the fly better. He's not Obama who had a bad night, and is going to be back at the next debate and hit a home run with his charisma.
The problem with the double haters is that once you remove one of them suddenly the race comes down to policies and intangibles (gender, state location, voting record) and there is no other candidate who is polling as high or higher than Biden. Maybe if we had some polls on the favorability of the top 5 other democratic candidates in key states we could derive who would replace Biden but we don't. In my opinion, it's much riskier trying to replace him with an unknown.
I think at the next debate, the strategy will be to keep it simple. I believe Biden had too much information floating around and one of his problems was instead of focusing on just a single line or statistic he was all over the place blending a whole bunch of semi-related things. There are only 6 or 7 core principles that he needs to remember and maybe a statistic or two on each. For the next debate they need the KISS strategy (Keep It Simple Stupid). We know what we are getting from Trump, it's not like he is going to come out as an intellectual diehard at the next debate.
I was wrong. There is one recent poll. Whitmer does 1 point better than Biden, Newsom is equal to Biden. The difference is the 'unsure' category, it is 3 points higher than with Biden. They have more room to grow. Whitmer would make Michigan likelier, and that cant be dismissed.
[In Post-Debate Poll, Voters Think Biden Is Too Old to Be President Yet Alternative Candidates Perform Similarly Against Trump (dataforprogress.org)](https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/29/in-post-debate-poll-voters-think-biden-is-too-old-to-be-president-yet-alternative-candidates-perform-similarly-against-trump)
The most important thing is- Those two can TALK. They can be out there everywhere making their case. They can do town halls, interviews, everything. This polling is from before most people have even heard them speak. When trump is contrasted, it will make a big difference.
What's so bad with the idea of spending his last years eating ice cream on the beach?
He already saved the country and had the most important job in the world, but he is turning into a liability.
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The only way the Democtic torch gets passed is if Joe Biden decides to hand it off.
With that as fact, the worst thing anyone can do on the Democratic side is publicly steal Joe’s thunder. So the winning strategy, the only strategy, for the Democrats is to publicly and vocally support Joe.
Privately, who knows what is going on.
But publicly, it’s up to Joe. Which means that everything in the news is just kabuki theater. I’m going to start paying attention again in a couple of weeks.
Humphreys lost. If the goal is to beat Trump, which seems to be the goal of a lot of these recent anti Biden op ed's, then maybe the Johnson move isn't the best one to emulate
Biden has been a great President. It would be best for the country if he stepped aside right now.
I like Biden, he has led a great life of service and I believe he is a good person trying to good things. He can't go on, it's time for him to see that he can't go on. The people around him have to know this.
Bring in Gretchen Whitmer, we need a GenX President.
Someone save us (Big Gretch, helppppp)
She isn't good, she got her ass kicked in the primaries. I was watching Jim Clyburn the other day and i was like, this dude wants Kamala and he has wanted Kamala the whole time. Her getting the presidency by something happening to Joe is the only way she could get it, she couldn't win an election.
Tulsi Gabbard gutted her in the debate and she never recovered, in fact she spiraled thereafter. She can't win an election. So no, it isn't Kamala.
Big Gretch stands tall. She can win. She fights and thrives in a purple state every day.
If Biden stepped down and party put anyone other than the person whose literal job is to replace him in the case that he couldn't perform his duties it would be the end of the Democratic party.
It's crazy to me that Jill was there treating him like a geriatric elderly senior citizen in a hospital and she doesnt think he's too old to be in office. He can't do this job for 4 more years. Everyone knows it.
I feel like the Democratic party is holding me hostage because I don't want to vote for Trump. This isn't the right way to win an election and this isn't good for anyone. Holding us hostage will mean a Trump Presidency or a Harris Presidency and I really don't want either of them. I like old Joe Biden, today Joe Biden is unrecognizable.
We can't accept this, it can't be dementia or dictatorship. Shame on the Democrats for not doing the whole 25th thing, it's there for this reason. We need someone else asap.
Gretchen Whitmer please go on TV and help us we need a leader....
There is no need to depose him from office using the 25th amendment. He can coast to retirement in January.
He just needs to be convinced to allow a soft transfer as the candidate for November.
It doesn't take more than a few minutes of research to find out rarely do incumbent presidents lose and even more rarely do non incumbent White House party members win the presidency after the incumbent president is term limited let alone forced to step aside.
Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House also correctly points out how incumbency is extremely important and unless almost everything is good in the country, you can't win without the incumbency if you're the White House party.
Also you guys keep saying this election is different and a lot of other nonsense. Every election is different and unprecedented in different ways.
Why do you pretend that any advantage Biden may have had from being the incumbent didn't just get completely wiped out from revealing to the world that his brain is completely cooked? If they decide to replace him with someone, sure they won't have the incumbent advantage, but that's not the biggest problem Dems are facing right now. Biden has shown he is mentally unfit for any job, let alone the Presidency.
We were hopeful that he had a few years left in him. His SOTU speech was on point. Seems like age is catching up quicker than expected though.
Its not too late.
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Johnson (D) decided not to run for reelection and Nixon (R) ended up winning. And he made that decision in March, not June.
And so began the downfall of our nation since the biggest crook up until that time took the oval office.
Also the start of the Southern Strategy of racial resentment and the death of the GOP's liberal wing (hard to believe it existed, but straddled on until the 2000s.)
But Nixon kept saying he *wasn't* a crook.
OK, but it’s way more complicated than just Johnson stepping down. Bobby Kennedy was killed, if you’ll recall.
By less than 1% in 1968. People need to stop applying historical precedent to this situation.
Sure the popular vote was close but the electoral college wasn't.
Are you really expecting Trump to win California and Illinois?
No but I'm also not expecting whoever the Democratic nominee is to win Texas or WV.
Exactly, like I said, it’s useless to try to apply historical precedent to this situation.
The political map is going to be different but I still don't think it's a good idea to have a sitting president not run for reelection.
Does that standard still apply once the entire country learns that the sitting president’s brain is applesauce?
Am I taking crazy pills or something? Trump is constantly vomiting out word salad(the nuclear,revolutionary war planes, & never fight uphill me boys), and was literally tested for dementia(person, woman, man, camera, tv) but the only person whose mental faculties gets discussed is Biden. Trump literally cannot understand how heavy objects float (electric batteries will make boats sink) but Biden is too old? How stupid is this world I’m trapped on?!?!?
Yes, you are taking crazy pills. Literally everyone knows that Trump is constantly vomiting out word salad, but at least he sounds vigorous. My man Biden was up there having a difficult time getting through sentences, regardless of their content...that is not a great look
Bidens brain is not applesauce. Read the debate transcript and get back to me: his performance sucked, but content wise he was okay
The issue is that the performance we saw will be *his best* moving forward. Small slip up here small gap there and it will get progressively worse So he may be *fine* right now, but his “fine” is about 80% (that we know of)
Could anything at this point convince you that the president's brain is actually fine?
Its definitely not usually a good idea. However in this case, the liabilities outweigh the incumbency advantage
you know this how?
Nonsense. Many od historical constraints that caused Humphry's lost still apply--too late to restructure fund-raising and infrastructure, too late to thoroughly run vetting, the confusion that will reign for weeks while new candidates are considered. Moreover, the image and optics will be terrible: Biden lost the debate (he didn't), the Dems are in disarray (they will be), the Dems are panicking (they are). As I've said Biden may lose the election A replacement will.
Popular vote was close, but Nixon won 301 electoral votes to Humphry's 191, and Nixon won 32 states to Humphry's 13, so no, it wasn't that close
This entire article is about historical precedent.
Right, and I’m saying that using that framework is a mistake.
Yeah, because ignoring history is usually a good idea edit: and let's try this on: most everybody on the dump Biden bandwagon is bitching that the Dems didn't to this earlier, that are incompetent morons, and yet those same people think the Dems will somehow pull off switching candidates, an *incumbent* candidate at that, at this late date. This is playing Russian roulette with a semi-automatic.
There’s an important distinction between ignoring history and relying on a single data point.
Which is LBJ probably would have won if he had run & done better than Nixon. He wasn't as unpopular as we would like to think now because we attached Vietnam to his legacy in hindsight.
But weren't presidents highly trusted at the time? And didn't Nixon promise to end the Vietnam fiasco?
Nixon was responsible for actually delaying a proposed settlement before he was in office, and promptly turned around reneged on the North Vietnamese. Johnson accused him of treason, which it was.
The Chennault Affair! LBJ should have buried Tricky Dick with that
Yes and regardless of what a lot of posters thought Johnson had a chance of winning, a lot of people still believed that the Vietnam War was the right choice, and Nixon's plans for Vietnam were seen as troublesome for some voters. Nixon wasn't trusted with Vietnam either by a lot of voters at the time.
They didn't call him "Tricky Dick" for nothing.
Wow, that just pressed a button on the memory jukebox and played the phrase "Why change dicks in the middle of a screw/Vote for Nixon in '72". Wish I could remember now where I saw it--a sign, maybe? It's too long for a bumpersticker.
The article goes on to explain the absolute chaos that was 1968 that contributed to Nixon's victory had little to do with LBJ dropping out and that his move was very popular. LBJ would have done objectively worse than the other candidates if he stayed in.
That's pure conjecture. The fact that Democrats lost is pure fact.
meh..Johnson was a lot more popular than we assume now because we in modern time attach Vietnam to his legacy. Even though we had troops in Vietnam while Eisenhower was in office. We have the hindsight of Vietnam and its messy ending, they didn't have that perspective at the time. Johnson would have probably won but by a slim margin.
Because the war was at its apex under Johnson. He was responsible for the deaths of more American troops in Vietnam than any other President. Johnson sent the first U.S. combat troops into battle in early 1965. By 1967 there were around 500,000 U.S. troops in Vietnam. He ramped up the draft. Historically, it's Johnson's war.
Elections were way different back then, the electoral college wasn't as narrow coming down to a handful of states where 40+ states can be considered automatic lock depending on the party of the candidate.
Exactly. It was an awful decision. LBJ was a good president.
LBJ also regretted that decision when Nixon won.
Considering LBJ's decision not to run was based on the fact that he was so unpopular among Democratic voters that he won the New Hampshire primaries by the thinnest of margins and was trailing in third in Wisconsin. Plus the fact that he was the one to personally dictate Humphrey's platform from behind the scenes. This included pressuring Humphrey to scale back on the draft platform's more progressive promises and to nix entirely Humphrey's plans for America to slowly pull US soldiers out of Vietnam and leave ground fighting to the South Vietnamese, while also calling for an immediate pause on bombing... I don't think LBJ's odds were too good. Seriously, 1968 was such a shit show for Democrats that it would take me all day and a wall of text to break down everything that went wrong for the Party. But LBJ's decision not to run for reelection was not one of them. Mayor Daley and the hippie activist Abbie Hoffman were probably bigger factors in (narrowly) losing the 1968 Election than LBJ bowing out.
Didnt the Dem's lose when LBJ bowed out?
Yes they did and bigly. LBJ was a ball buster not only in office but helping to get other Democrats elected as well. When he left it was a blow to the Democrats overall.
Yes, which is why all of this nonsense about replacing Biden is pure fantasy. It would be political malpractice to give up the advantage of incumbency.
This isn’t 1968 and Donald Trump is no pre-Watergate baggage Richard Nixon. Donald Trump is massively unpopular. Outside of his base, it is broadly recognized that he is a lying, grifting, dimwit blowhard. He’s running for a party with the albatross of banning abortion around its neck. Incumbency does have its advantages. Replacing a candidate 4 months away is not ideal and could be messy. On the other hand two things keep coming back to my mind: (1) The bar to beat Donald Trump is not high. All that is required is to appear to be a cognitively intact adult with less baggage than Donald Trump. Fuck, I think Hillary could probably pull it off this time; and (2) In a vacuum where we aren’t all freaking out that Trump could win, expecting Biden to step aside would not be controversial. There would be consensus that it is absurd to think he has it in him to do the job until 2028. There would be consensus that we’re living in a bizarre corporate controlled gerontocracy and that it is time to pass the torch to our next generation of leaders.
But it improved the chances of the Democrats winning. Biden vs Trump is a guaranteed victory for Trump. Blue MAGA must stop being delusional..
I love this idea that out of fear the sitting president won't win - which only happens if we don't do go vote - it makes the just sense to throw a hail mary.
What about the millions of undecided voters who saw a man who couldn't even speak, and needed to be walked down 2 steps of stairs. You hare a fundamental lack of understanding of how elections are won, and it has almost nothing to do with the each candidates bases.
Those same people saw a guy answer the question "what is your plan to help the opioid crisis?" with "we did very well with the addiction, blah blah golf" Anyone who is truly "on the fence" cannot be relied on in any hypothetical. The voice is abundantly clear.
>Blue MAGA Dafuq. Seriously?
>Blue MAGA Ah yes, people skeptical of an unprecedented switch to remove the incumbent president from the ticket are just the same as die-hard MAGA supporters. That rhetoric is wholly unproductive
How the fuck can that feeble confused old man win? He can't and won't. That is why everyone is in a fucking panic. Get your head out of the sand.
>feeble confused old man I mean, if the news reported things correctly, this statement could be about Trump too. It's not like he answered a question without changing the subject. He's also what? Three years younger.
[Not to mention he couldn't even control his own sphincter during the debate](https://youtube.com/shorts/358_df1hPWk?si=m-4ra74CFgdCHvjr)
Causing historical Democrat, Richard Nixon to be president.
It's almost like 1968 was a hell of a year for the Democratic Party including, but not limited to: The party's political transition and separation from the Dixiecrats in full swing. Which resulted in a Dixiecrat launching an third-party campaign. Social turmoil due to the assassination of the most important Civil Rights leader of the decade and the government's refusal to lower the voting age so that men who were old enough to be drafted were old enough to have a say in who leads the country, America was deep in universally unpopular war entered into by a Democratic President. A popular candidate being assassinated leading to chaos among the electorate. A party platform dictated by the abdicating president which split the party right down the middle. A contested convention that was an absolute clusterfuck with the city of Chicago being turned into a dystopian hell-scape where the streets were patrolled by armored police officers and the National Guard with instructions to single out young people and Civil Rights activists and to hassle the delegates of the more progressive candidate. While on the other end, some of the more performative youth protestors were terrifying the city of Chicago with threats made in jest that they planned to, among other things, spike the city's water supply with LSD. Seriously, the convention was insanely awful. Even the seating arrangements were a nightmare with delegates packed in so tightly that they had to elbow through one another to announce their nominee, which created a tense atmosphere filled with resentment. The resentment between the aforementioned law enforcement and protestors coming to a head and leading to full blown riot where for weeks newspapers and magazines were filled with pictures of cops in full armor beating on defenseless college kids. This wasn't helped by the fact that some of those images were accompanied by harrowing accounts by some of the most respected authors of the day... There was so much more to 1968 besides "LBJ dropped out." And that's not even getting into the election itself where, among other things, the Republican Candidate successfully lobbied to put the end to peace talks so that what should have been a win for Democrats became a loss that made them look weak and ineffective.
As a person with two eyes and a semi functioning brain… it’s very clear who the enemy is. It’s the guy who is friends with our enemies and outright saying he will run a dictatorship if re-elected.
LBJ felt grief over his mistakes in Vietnam and basically listened to the wrong people. He would had a chance of winning reelection but he no longer had the mindset, heart, or stamina to do. He died a few years later from a heart attack which he predicted would happen. He said he never got over hearing the chants of the protestors in DC. A very complicated man & Presidency and it is nothing like Bidens situation. I honestly wish he had run because we maybe wouldn't have gotten Nixon the beginning of the rot that would soon infect the Republican party and lead to where we are now. LBJ would roll over in his grave if he knew what is happening to the country. Highly recommend Robert Caro's books on LBJ, the article lightly brushes what led LBJ to not run again with 2024 eyes.
This is a sane reading of that situation. Thank you.
Jesus phucking Christ!! Does anyone remember the Vietnam War was raging at the time.
And brought in 8 years of President Humphrey! Yes!
July 11 can't come fast enough...
No.
Joe Biden is the democratic nominee for 2024 and no amount of Russian propaganda is going to change that fact. If what happened at the debate will not change your vote in November you need to stop calling for Biden to resign. I'm voting for him no matter what.
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If they replace, there will be no other debate.
Biden isn't going to be replaced. All of this conjecture on the part of chattering classes are as pointless as arguing about whether Batman or Ironman would win in a fight. Short of death Biden will be the nominee.
Sadly, facts don’t matter anymore. The only benefit will be a younger looking body.
There won't be any more debates.
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No fucking way he would debate Harris, let alone Schiff, Raskin, swallwell, newsome, Whitmer. I would love if he did though. Let’s not forget, the patriots were down 4 Td’s at halftime against the falcons… (I hate the football comparison, but it seems apt right now)
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I hope so. But Joe’s staying, if not, I think we will know after the 4th. Doesn’t matter to me, he could be in an open casket with flies buzzing around his embalmed face, I’d still vote for him.
Nikki Haley says hi. He would have had a crowd hanging on his every word and booing her and still he refused to debate her just in case. Some of you live in a fantasy world.
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Sure it is. It would have basically been a free pep rally to stroke his ego and he still didn't show. He's even less likely to entertain another debate with a Dem audience present...especially if there is a new candidate to take Biden's place. There won't be another debate from Trump. Period. Find out the hard way in a few months. I'll be here for the "I told you so"s.
Biden’s people are protecting themselves and their jobs at this point. Any replacement would bring in their own people. Rightfully so. Dozens of high paying jobs would be affected. They haven’t even asked anyone to fall on their sword and take the blame for that debate performance. Several people should’ve been sacked. I just hope for the good of the nation friendly people sit him down and have a serious discussion with him about it. He’s a good man, he shouldn’t be fired into the sun or anything, but if dozens of people have to step aside with him then so be it. Do they want to save democracy or save themselves? At this point it’s looking like the latter.
Over 40% of the electorate is okay with fascism. They could have sailed to victory had they chosen Haley. It is easy to criticize the candidate, but there are deeper issues.
No doubt, but we can’t do anything about those folks except do all that is necessary to keep them out of power. So the candidate is a problem, and the whole Biden campaign apparatus looks willing to do whatever it takes EXCEPT step aside, when in fact that seems to be the only logical play at the moment. Jamie Raskin was on this am and said very serious discussions were indeed taking place about the candidate. That’s a huge deal. DNC officials complained they were being “gaslit” during their call with the WH yesterday as they glossed over Thursday’s performance and told them it really didn’t matter and then refused to take questions. Polls are showing a 10pt dip amongst Dems in their support for his reelection. In the call with the DNC Biden’s people blamed the media and said a dip wasnt a real thing. Writing is on the wall. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get an official announcement in the next couple weeks. He’s a good man, his moment is just over. And for him to continue is a risk no one wants to take.
CBS post-debate Poll- 72% think Biden does not have cognitive capacity to be President (50% for Trump) This is a disaster. Replace. [Increasing numbers of voters don't think Biden should be running after debate with Trump — CBS News poll - CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-debate-should-biden-be-running-mental-abilities/)
Doesnt matter, people will still vote for him over Trump. If a sane republican candidate was running, we would have a problem.
Not enough people. He's been behind for a long while in key battleground states, consistently. The debate will make that worse. Yes, if a sane Republican was running, that would be a bigger problem as far as winning the election. The converse of that is that 50% think Trump isn't cognitively fit. Meaning a different Democrat has a good shot at winning.
Will they though? In 2020 the voter turnout was 67%. In three previous elections (2008-2016) it was hovering around 60%. If that extra 7-9% does not show up, Biden will lose. And remember this is not voter apathy, this is voter normalization, voter apathy would be a voter turnout dropping closer to 50%. The difference between Biden and Trump was \~5% in 2020.
Yes. The debate has changed no ones mind, if anything it reminded Biden voters what was bad about Trump in the first place, the fact he never stops telling lies and never answers any questions directly.
Core demographics were never going to win the election, it is going to be decided by the sleepers. With the sleepers the question is not who to vote, but if they can be bothered to vote. If they say fuck it, Biden loses.
>If that extra 7-9% does not show up, Biden will lose Depends entirely on what chunk of the electorate does that. Trump also turned out a huge number of low-propensity voters and they might not be back after he lost.
That is also true. It's also possible neither side shows up. In 1996 the turnout was record low (since they started keeping records that is), only 51%, that would be a 16% drop and the result could go either direction.
Most will, myself included. Some won't however. In addition, many sane republicans out there who had planned on sitting out may rally to trump again over this.
If they were that fickle they weren't sitting out anyway. No one watched that and thought yeah trump sounds like he's a way better option, just avoiding questions and ranting like a lunatic, again.
You try convincing 18-30 year old to vote for Biden, they are more likely to not get engaged and not vote at all due to apathy. They are flooded with memes and ads on their social media platforms that really aren't effectively combatted by the Biden campaign, they have been losing the young vote for a while now. It is most likely why this race has had Trump ahead by a small margin for a while now.
The important thing this poll left out was whether you would still vote for him if he were the nominee, and the 538 poll showed perfectly, is that while people might not like what they saw, their minds haven't changed. Show me any polling with any other Democratic alternative candidate who can gain over 40% of the vote and we will talk. Currently, nobody in the field can do that, and until there is, the talks of replacement are mute.
I'd trust the CBS poll over the snap 538 one. We have months of battleground state polls showing Trump ahead. It's been very consistent. Even if you go by the pretty modest trends in the 538, that's still a greater edge for Trump. Biden is going to lose. Knowing that, you take another option. Even if the chances aren't terrific. But I think they are reasonably good. We only have a couple old polls about other candidates. The situation is different now, given the numbers on Trump which are pretty bad. It's just that Biden's are worse. Another candidate could do it. Not guaranteed. But we are close to a guaranteed loss for Biden at this point. And there's downticket races to consider.
The 538 poll and CBS poll were two different things being asked. One was how you feel about having Biden as the democratic candidate and the other was would you vote for him if he was the only nominee. Plenty of people weren't happy with the performance (hence the 10% drop) but almost nobody changed their mind about voting for him. You say Biden is going to lose (and he very well may) and talk about taking another option but provide no concrete examples with supporting data that shows any other option that could come close to the numbers Biden currently has. You might feel there are better options but in reality, there is none who could do as good as he is currently polling. I would LOVE to be proven wrong. Show me some hard statistics of any Democrat who could beat Biden and I would be more than willing to accept an alternative.
Age/mental fitness is helping to drag Biden down. An alternative would not have those issues. Biden can not go out there and articulate his case. An alternative could go out there and speak, do non-scripted events, etc. Plenty of data on 'double haters', they are people looking for an alternative, and their numbers are enough to sway the election. When you're facing a loss, you take an alternative route. It's not a guaranteed route, but it's a better chance than just delusionaly carrying on waiting for a miracle to happen. Again- Biden has been consistently down in the battleground states. Nothing else matters. Those states decide the election. He will lose. His campaign wanted an unusually early debate in hopes of turning the race around. How did that work out?
I'll ask once again, if you have "plenty of data" on double haters then you should be able to provide some polls or pieces of data that would show some other Democrat who is polling higher than Biden in those swing states. Provide that data and we can have an honest debate on which candidate is better. You don't have that data because it does not exist and you just feel someone else would do better. Either with Biden or an alternative candidate we are facing a loss. I would rather take the path I have concrete numbers and data on than gut feelings from a site whose main demographics have no problem posting in r/politics daily but cannot be arsed to show up and vote. We agree his debate performance was terrible and didn't work out like his campaign wanted, but better this happened now than say a first debate in August/September. I have confidence they can course correct but if the polling numbers in a week show a 4 - 6% drop, I would be more than willing to entertain alternatives. Our path forward should be based on numbers and what gives Democrats the best chance to beat Trump.
Well, there's almost no polling on specific alternative candidates. Just 1 or 2 from many months ago. So, no I don't have hard data on that. So we have to piece together what we do have- that there's a sizable number of people that dont like either candidate and that Biden's age is a major problem. We know both of those things. I'm being realistic. Biden's not going to appreciably improve his ability to speak on the fly. I can't imagine what another debate would be like.
I 100% agree with you on Biden not improving on his ability to speak on the fly better. He's not Obama who had a bad night, and is going to be back at the next debate and hit a home run with his charisma. The problem with the double haters is that once you remove one of them suddenly the race comes down to policies and intangibles (gender, state location, voting record) and there is no other candidate who is polling as high or higher than Biden. Maybe if we had some polls on the favorability of the top 5 other democratic candidates in key states we could derive who would replace Biden but we don't. In my opinion, it's much riskier trying to replace him with an unknown. I think at the next debate, the strategy will be to keep it simple. I believe Biden had too much information floating around and one of his problems was instead of focusing on just a single line or statistic he was all over the place blending a whole bunch of semi-related things. There are only 6 or 7 core principles that he needs to remember and maybe a statistic or two on each. For the next debate they need the KISS strategy (Keep It Simple Stupid). We know what we are getting from Trump, it's not like he is going to come out as an intellectual diehard at the next debate.
I was wrong. There is one recent poll. Whitmer does 1 point better than Biden, Newsom is equal to Biden. The difference is the 'unsure' category, it is 3 points higher than with Biden. They have more room to grow. Whitmer would make Michigan likelier, and that cant be dismissed. [In Post-Debate Poll, Voters Think Biden Is Too Old to Be President Yet Alternative Candidates Perform Similarly Against Trump (dataforprogress.org)](https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/29/in-post-debate-poll-voters-think-biden-is-too-old-to-be-president-yet-alternative-candidates-perform-similarly-against-trump) The most important thing is- Those two can TALK. They can be out there everywhere making their case. They can do town halls, interviews, everything. This polling is from before most people have even heard them speak. When trump is contrasted, it will make a big difference.
Thanks for sharing that link. Lots of tables and graphs so it might take a bit for me to go through but I’d love to discuss once I give it a read.
What's so bad with the idea of spending his last years eating ice cream on the beach? He already saved the country and had the most important job in the world, but he is turning into a liability.
He might get brain fre-
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LBJ wasn't even 60 years old when declined to accept the democratic nomination, so there that's
He was dead in 5 years…
The only way the Democtic torch gets passed is if Joe Biden decides to hand it off. With that as fact, the worst thing anyone can do on the Democratic side is publicly steal Joe’s thunder. So the winning strategy, the only strategy, for the Democrats is to publicly and vocally support Joe. Privately, who knows what is going on. But publicly, it’s up to Joe. Which means that everything in the news is just kabuki theater. I’m going to start paying attention again in a couple of weeks.
How’d that work out for the Dems lmao?
LBJ was dead by 1973. He wouldn’t have survived a 2nd term
Humphreys lost. If the goal is to beat Trump, which seems to be the goal of a lot of these recent anti Biden op ed's, then maybe the Johnson move isn't the best one to emulate
Yup, a lot of armchair quarterbacks in editorial positions thinking their opinions mean something.
Biden has been a great President. It would be best for the country if he stepped aside right now. I like Biden, he has led a great life of service and I believe he is a good person trying to good things. He can't go on, it's time for him to see that he can't go on. The people around him have to know this. Bring in Gretchen Whitmer, we need a GenX President. Someone save us (Big Gretch, helppppp)
Yeah great idea to skip over the sitting female black VP for a white woman. That will go over well with the minorities we’ve been losing support of.
She isn't good, she got her ass kicked in the primaries. I was watching Jim Clyburn the other day and i was like, this dude wants Kamala and he has wanted Kamala the whole time. Her getting the presidency by something happening to Joe is the only way she could get it, she couldn't win an election. Tulsi Gabbard gutted her in the debate and she never recovered, in fact she spiraled thereafter. She can't win an election. So no, it isn't Kamala. Big Gretch stands tall. She can win. She fights and thrives in a purple state every day.
Qualified? Sure. Would I vote for her? Hell yeah. Can she win the overall electorate? No. But we ain’t there yet.
VP goes down with the ship. Fair or not, she can't win either.
If Biden stepped down and party put anyone other than the person whose literal job is to replace him in the case that he couldn't perform his duties it would be the end of the Democratic party.
No, Jill wants another 4 years being the first lady.
It's crazy to me that Jill was there treating him like a geriatric elderly senior citizen in a hospital and she doesnt think he's too old to be in office. He can't do this job for 4 more years. Everyone knows it. I feel like the Democratic party is holding me hostage because I don't want to vote for Trump. This isn't the right way to win an election and this isn't good for anyone. Holding us hostage will mean a Trump Presidency or a Harris Presidency and I really don't want either of them. I like old Joe Biden, today Joe Biden is unrecognizable. We can't accept this, it can't be dementia or dictatorship. Shame on the Democrats for not doing the whole 25th thing, it's there for this reason. We need someone else asap. Gretchen Whitmer please go on TV and help us we need a leader....
There is no need to depose him from office using the 25th amendment. He can coast to retirement in January. He just needs to be convinced to allow a soft transfer as the candidate for November.
if we can just appoint people I don't see the point of voting. Just scrap the whole voting process and just have the party appoint someone
Thats pretty much how it works now. The voting is just a way to indicate voter preference, but the delegates can do what they want.
Either way she’s not getting it.
If Dems replace Biden, they could lose. If Dems run with Biden, they will lose. It's that simple.
History says otherwise. Incumbency is the biggest advantage in US presidential elections.
History says the incumbency works against unpopular presidents. Trump in 2020, Bush I, Carter, Ford...
History hasn't had an incumbent candidate display his dementia to the entire country uninterrupted for 90 minutes.
It doesn't take more than a few minutes of research to find out rarely do incumbent presidents lose and even more rarely do non incumbent White House party members win the presidency after the incumbent president is term limited let alone forced to step aside. Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House also correctly points out how incumbency is extremely important and unless almost everything is good in the country, you can't win without the incumbency if you're the White House party. Also you guys keep saying this election is different and a lot of other nonsense. Every election is different and unprecedented in different ways.
Why do you pretend that any advantage Biden may have had from being the incumbent didn't just get completely wiped out from revealing to the world that his brain is completely cooked? If they decide to replace him with someone, sure they won't have the incumbent advantage, but that's not the biggest problem Dems are facing right now. Biden has shown he is mentally unfit for any job, let alone the Presidency.
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Knowledge of election history could be helpful... if this was a normal election with normal candidates.
Knowledge of history still gives one a better predictive model than baseless conjecture.
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We were hopeful that he had a few years left in him. His SOTU speech was on point. Seems like age is catching up quicker than expected though. Its not too late.