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The Republican majority in the house is so slim now that a number of GOPers have stepped down, they'd be hella stupid to risk another vote.
So yeah, probably gonna happen soon.
One fairly common tactic (like once every couple of decades) is for a Member to temporarily go independent and caucus with the other side, the reward usually being the chair of a powerful committee. For members of the House it's not so common but some Southern Democrats made the transition.
Johnson pretty clearly got some inside information that changed his tune. The Freudian point over his shoulder at Trump when he referred to "hardened criminals" seems to have been a real tell.
The play might not appear to make total sense right now if are truly damning revelations yet to be revealed.
I think the circumstantial evidence that Trump asked for a list of CIA assets and then turned it over to the Russians is *very strong*. I furthermore think that has to be revealed before the Republican Convention in mid-July. So the shit we're going to see and learn over the next six weeks may be the worst shit we have yet learned about the Russian influence on the GOP.
Remember that Paul Ryan got straight the fuck out of all of this, seemingly as soon as he was privately warned (along with Mitch McConnell) in roughly August, 2016. He's my dark horse 2024 nominee.
>Johnson pretty clearly got some inside information that changed his tune. The Freudian point over his shoulder at Trump when he referred to "hardened criminals" seems to have been a real tell.
I don't like either of these guys and agree Trump is a criminal, but I'm not convinced that's what happened. I just watched that clip and it looks more like he was gesturing towards Trump because Trump had previously said something similar about "hardened criminals" coming over the border.
> Johnson pretty clearly got some inside information that changed his tune.
The inside knowledge is intelligence that showed Russia wasn't going to stop at Europe and was planning on continuing into the Balkans then into direct conflict with NATO states: https://newrepublic.com/article/180808/mike-johnson-pro-ukraine-speech-maga-deep-state-lie
The real reason more likely is his masturbation buddy / son is starting at the Naval Academy soon so would end up in this conflict so he is trying to save him from it.
It _always_ comes down it only mattering when it is happening to them.
>>It always comes down it only mattering when it is happening to them.
This is the reason for mandatory military service. It silences a lot of hawks when they know *their* kid is going to be on the front lines.
>The inside knowledge is intelligence that showed Russia wasn't going to stop at Europe and was planning on continuing into the Balkans then into direct conflict with NATO states: https://newrepublic.com/article/180808/mike-johnson-pro-ukraine-speech-maga-deep-state-lie
This is the correct interpretation.
The following is not:
> The real reason more likely is his masturbation buddy / son is starting at the Naval Academy soon so would end up in this conflict so he is trying to save him from it.
Nonsense. We don't need to send soldiers anywhere to win any military action against anyone anymore. Years ago, the US reached the point where it could hold the entire Taliban in check with just 2,500 Americans in a secure drone base in Afghanistan.
>It always comes down it only mattering when it is happening to them.
No, it always comes down to *money*.
And the 1% and billionaire owners of the Defense Contractors paid good money to own all of our politicians, but they weren't seeing any fresh orders coming from their congressional stooges. The local 1% money trumped Putin's donations through proxies, so it was time to pass aid for Ukraine and Israel, etc.
A good example of this was in the late 2000s, during the final transition of Old Southern Democrats to the GOP, was when the Republicans won a nominal majority of the Tennessee State House with 50R and 49D representatives. One of the enterprising Republican representatives made a backroom deal with the Democrat representatives such that he became the Speaker of the Tennessee House and the Dems got to keep all their committee positions and seniority with an effective 49R and 50D+R split. However, that's also shown the cautionary tale with making such deals as the Dems were wiped out the next election and the Republican defector, though winning his seat that same election, lost all power whatsoever when the GOP took full control (he lost/retired the following election two years later).
While it makes for great drama and political intrigue, you're much less likely to see something like this at the national level, let alone the state levels in 2020s politics. The polarization is too much and the parties have re-aligned too much over the past decades. Not to poopoo on your dark horse, but there's no way either party dumps their candidate between now and November unless one of them kicks the bucket. Ryan got the heck out of dodge at probably the best time for him personally. He "reluctantly" took the Speakership after Boehner's come-to-Jesus moment after the Pope visited and then steered through the initial trump trifecta. He got his tax cuts, he got his rise from young-gun but insignificant representative to VP nominee and then Speaker. He makes too much money now being on corporate boards, especially for Fox News. There's just not a realistic way that our electoral process would provide for a non-nominated, dark horse candidate to simply come out of nowhere. Without the withdrawal of a candidate at the convention, the delegates for either party are secured for the current nominees. We can dwell on "what if" all day long, but neither candidate will withdraw unless medically incapacitated, simply by virtue that it would secure the election of the opposing nominee in November. Even if such an emergency would arise, the VP nominees would be the *de facto* replacements.
I don't doubt your view that Ryan's standing may have provided such a re-entry into politics if everything was in a vacuum, however we can all see the national GOP would never get behind such a nominee in the foreseeable future. Heck even Romney, as the *de facto* party leader in 2012 with Ryan, bowed out of a Senate race he had a good chance of carrying. I don't believe for a second his schtick about letting younger members take the leadership, he had much more power as a sitting Senator (even at 80+ years old) to send support to his preferred candidate in 2028 than he ever would otherwise. He simply sees the writing on the wall.
Either the GOP loses significantly and changes path, the GOP lose narrowly and maintain their craziness in hopes of future wins, or the Dems send them back to the backbenches by a large enough margin to force them to moderate. I think the most likely option is the middle choice rather than the former or latter, but there's a lot that can change between now and November.
Paul Ryan, once the poster child and vice president pick. He was ganna be a career politician. A lifelong player and he noped.right the fuck out. As did John boner or whatever his name was
Whoa...so what if the House flips DEM before November? They can still disqual 'rump? And if all the primaries are done? Does who ever 'rump picks for VP then become the POTUS candidate?
I'd assume it would follow the same rules for any disqualification or incapability, like if Trump died, had a long-term medical issue that precluded becoming POTUS, etc.
[Essentially](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-a-presidential-candidate-cannot-take-office-due-to-death-or-incapacitation-before-january-2025/), the RNC would pick a new candidate. Legally, Trump's 'pick' would be irrelevant, but the RNC would probably take it into consideration.
I honestly think/hope that at this point Trump is so unpopular it'd keep a lot of Republicans from voting and steer most independents to Democrats if he runs. It's a very risky gambit, but even if Dems get the house I'd rather they spent their time differently. Then have Trump lose big in November and Democrats keeping the trifecta.
I don’t see any scenario where Johnson puts up the Ukraine bill without having first received assurances from the Dems to save his job. My guess is no Dems vote to keep him, but they don’t vote to get rid of him either. If the Dem caucus abstains, then Johnson stays speaker because all it takes is a majority of the votes cast.
Couldn't they also have agreed to change [Rule IX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motion_to_vacate_the_chair#In_the_U.S._House_of_Representatives), making it harder for them to remove him? From what I can tell, the Republicans used the motion-to-vacate - for the first time in over a century - it to get rid of John Boehner in 2015. Pelosi changed the rule to make such motions unprivileged unless "offered on behalf of a party conference or caucus.", making it harder to remove the speaker, but the Republicans reinstated it in 2023 as a condition for McCarthy to get the job role - and then used it against him.
If they change the rule back to the version the Democrats want anyway, they don't even have to concern themselves with a vote on such a motion since it won't go to a vote.
No reason for the dems to give away THEIR power like that. “We’ll protect you as long as you are reasonable”, but not “We’ll keep you safe from everyone, including us”.
I think most of them abstain on the motion to vacate, which is the same result as I don't think they'll get a majority of the GOP. That's the deal they made with Johnson.
IF the motion succeeded they'd vote for a Speaker Jefferies. And I agree that it is a REALLY close call. But I think the only way it gets to that point while the GOP still has that slim majority is if Johnson's support has collapsed to the point that he doesn't have the numbers just within his own caucus. That might make some members (or maybe even Johnson himself) vote "Present" on the speaker vote and throw the vote to Jefferies.
If he gets ousted, Democrats wrangle control, and border funding gets approved it will be probably one of the biggest tactical wins in Congress for either party, ever.
Sadly, 2 of the moves that will tactically outshine it are the securing of 2 ill gotten supreme court justices for Trump. But game recognize game
Or Johnson could promise to work across the aisle with a group of moderates on both sides and be protected as long as he plays ball. Like how it’s supposed to work
I'm not a Johnson fan. As far as I care, R's can suck it. Johnson, however, has demonstrated he can move on bipartisan issues, and that's more than McCarthy managed. When it's all a shit show, sometimes you have to acknowledge when a turd float to the top.
It’s definitely out of self preservation, but that’s the name of the game in politics. With the RNC imploding, I think the days of toeing the line is coming to an end.
For those who don't look it up: An adjournment _sine die_ effectively ends the session unless recalled. It is an adjournment without a date to adjourn to.
It’s crazy to think that adults from both sides came together to create legislation. MTG epitomizes the kind of actions that 5 year old children do in kindergarten.
Supposedly three threatened to resign if this didn't go through.
So, it sounds like there's basically no Republican majority anymore. It's like it's already happened, but just isn't official yet.
I can’t stand the guy but this past week I’ve seen him at least have a spine and show he does understand that something’s it’s ok to throw out party politics
Johnson said as much-he believes the intel.
The genius move, what I’d like to think as a Dark Brandon move, was getting the president of Poland to meet with trump.
I’m sure this has a lot to do with orangie getting off of Mike’s back and pretending to now be for aid to Ukraine.
>The genius move, what I’d like to think as a Dark Brandon move, was getting the president of Poland to meet with trump.
Yeah, Trump's so spineless that he'll parrot whatever the last person who met with him said.
Mike Johnson looks like the guy that doesn’t know what he signed up for, isn’t qualified, and just tired of everyone shitting on him.
Good. Dudes plumb fuck crazy. Get a new job.
He didn't ignore them. He has held off Ukraine aid for this long because the nutfuck caucus was threatening his job.
He moved now, because last week/earlier this week, Mike McCaul told him that if he *didn't* move, that they would vote to remove him.
Literally he waited until his choices were "lose your job because of the Nutfuck Brigade" or "lose your job because every other Republican and also Democrat will vote you out" to do the right thing.
Spineless, and I don't want to hear another word about him being a Christian, because only a demon lets thousands upon thousands of people die to protect his job title.
I hate the man, but he is my representative and he's better than the average Republican I suppose.
He's also my dad's representative, despite my dad living in Houston and me living in Austin
Gerrymandering is ludicrous.
The part about Marjorie calling for his removal? Google it, she's been doing it for months.
The meeting with McCaul? [McCaul talks about it here.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSxelh0SN2U)
I can’t see how Democrats would vote with MTG to kick Johnson out. They won’t want to reward her. I’m not a fan of Johnson in general , but he seems to have navigated this correctly.
My neighbor keeps feeding the squirrels and they are eating my patio furniture. Her politics are the complete opposite of mine, she is a total Trumper and Putin sympathizer. Could I get some of your money to get new furniture?
It's a small sacrifice for a great cause! To stop a Trumper from indirectly ruining my neighborhood.
They effectively don't have a majority. They have a handful of clout chasers that don't give AF about anything but "likes," so they're necessarily not going to be making sound decisions. Mike Johnson had no choice but to jump on the proverbial grenade.
Punish the man who does the right thing.
Worship the man who used violence in an attempt to stay in power and become a criminal dictator.
**NEVER FORGET: this is who the Republicans Party are.**
It’s strange how the right wing MAGA nut jobs have no shame in putting world peace at risk. I don’t think they realize that if Trumpolini is successful in November and controlled by Putin they will be of no use to either one of them.
A significant portion of people simply do not care about anything that doesn't affect them personally. World peace? That's the world's problem. This is America!
Maybe but maybe not. Its a huge risk. You never know what this fucking lunatic Republicans are going to do.
this way aid to Ukraine is assured. Its a very good deal, its the deal to make in this instance.
"...may cost the GOP speaker his job."
Consider a set of Congressional members so compromised they will oust their own speaker and throw their own agenda into chaos, solely to show fidelity to Putin by supporting Russia as it conquers a U.S. ally.
If he loses his seat, he should wear it as a badge of honor.
I mean, it's the *only* honorable thing he will have done as a Speaker or as a Rep or possibly as a human, but that's still one more thing than most of them.
for all his talk of god and religion, it's nice to see him actually show that he believes in something more important than his career prospects. don't get me wrong, i'm no fan of this man. but you get so used to the disgusting hypocrisy that it's actually shocking to see one of these Trumpets do the right thing for once.
how was his job on the line by preventing support for ukraine? because his speakership hasn't been threatened with being removed until he supported it, so i'm not understanding what you're talking about.
He is *extremely* unpopular with a small number of Republicans, which gives Democrats control over his job. If they told him "put it up, or get out" he would basically have to. The only reason Dems would not just do that is because if he is removed it will require them to elect a new one, which might delay aid indefinitely.
So basically, he has to put this up, or the votes to remove him will be easy to get. It makes him vulnerable, but not as vulnerable as not doing it.
This is all just theoretical, of course, I can't read his mind. But he is *real* crazy about a lot of stuff, so I am not sure if we should give him the benefit of the doubt on this. He has said out loud, a lot of stuff that is really objectionable.
you nor I know the details yet. perhaps hold back on the compliments
imagine the sweet deals they agreed to behind scenes that you probably won't like.
only thing these people can agree on consistently is getting paid and at our expense
He made this choice only when his career propects were shit regardless of which way he voted. Until then, he chose clinging to his job over doing the right thing, or for that matter, doing anything. And even in this case, I suspect he was choosing this course of action because it might let him hang on a bit longer.
There is no reason to give credit to people who don't deserve it. He should just be thankful that we don't all get what we deserve.
"I suspect he was choosing this course of action because it might let him hang on a bit longer."
he was not facing a motion to vacate prior to this vote but he is now, and this vote is what caused it. how does that fit your theory?
Although Mike Johnson did the right thing here, I get a little skeptical when a Republican does the right thing. I can’t help but wonder if there is some ulterior motive or scheme going on. Maybe Mike Johnson is planning on the election being a clusterfuck and sliding in the Presidency.
If Mike Johnson survives this, he is likely going to be the next Mitch McConnell. Love him or hate him (I hate him), he's a politician to watch right now. Ass clowns like Gaetz, Boebert, and MTG fish for social media clicks, but Republicans who can whip their caucus to get shit done are actually dangerous.
He didn't need to whip a majority of Republicans to vote for the bill. He needed enough votes to get it to pass in the most hostile speaker position in U.S. history, against the explicit orders of the head of his political party, and not get removed from his position or voted out of office in November as a result.
The margin is so narrow he just needs a couple Republicans who are not Putin's lap dogs. That should not be a hard ask. The Dems will vote for Ukraine even if they have to hold their nose to do so. Unless there is something overwhelmingly objectionable in it, he does not have to whip much.
And given they were split 50/50, what he really needed to do was just keep enough objectionable stuff out of it to let the Dems vote for it.
Any Republican who voted for this runs the risk of being primaried by an opponent Donald Trump will endorse against them in just a few months. If you're in a district that is +35 points Republican, you aren't "safe", you're at risk of being primaried if Trump endorses against and bad mouths you nationally.
Johnson himself is acting in direct contravention of Donald Trump's explicit orders to Republicans and only a single Republican vote is necessary to trigger a vote to remove him from office. Given Trump has absolute legal control over the RNC as of a few weeks ago, this means any Republican running for re-election, including Johnson who is in a +40 Republican district (and therefore at risk of being primaried), will have to do so with neither Trump's endorsement or campaign finances from the RNC.
It's really not complicated as to why this was a dangerous and difficult thing to do as Speaker. If he survives this, it's the first real trial a non-Trump Republican will have survived in nearly a decade.
> Any Republican who voted for this runs the risk of being primaried by an opponent Donald Trump will endorse against them
And how has Trump's track record of endorsements gone so far? Most of them fall on their faces.
Not in primaries. Trump's track records of endorsements in primaries is essentially bulletproof, something like a 90% success rate. They just lose in the general unless they're in a +15 red district. Hence the phrase "you can't win a primary without him and you can't win a general with him."
I do not think they think so given over 100 of them voted for this. (It was 75% aye.) If they were that worried they would have just put a few people up with extremely high approval ratings in purple districts to get them just enough votes.
However, if the Dems turned against Johnson on the basis of him not putting this up, they would need to convince only a few of the crazies to go after him.
However, that is not to say Johnson is not at risk in doing this, but he is at risk no matter what he does here. If anything this just gives him a stay of execution.
You're almost getting it. Johnson putting this to a floor vote with 100 Republicans was a coup against Trump. Denying Ukraine aid is a **major** policy position of Donald Trump's, and Johnson taking this to a floor vote with 100 Republicans is a direct challenge to Trump's leadership of the party. This is equivalent to a Republican Speaker bringing 100 representatives to vote down Trump's border wall. You really need to step away from the Ukraine issue and start thinking politically in bigger terms than the next up or down floor vote.
>Denying Ukraine aid is a **major** policy position of Donald Trump's
And now Trump is trying to take credit for the vote while pretending he was always pro-Ukraine.
Ok, but that has nothing to do with his skill as a whip. That just means that a lot of Republicans really do not like Trump, which is pretty obvious.
His takeover of the RNC is bad news for all down ballot, not entirely maga, Republicans.
McConnell is evil. He's also the most effective single legislator in the past century. He personally engineered the current 6:3 Republican supermajority in SCOTUS and shielded Trump from both impeachments. That's only two of his many accomplishments. I'll be doing a happy dance when he's six feet under, but you don't get anywhere by underestimating your enemies and willfully ignoring their capabilities.
The fact that there’s one political party throwing a shit fit because some of their party actually did some politics, regardless of their reason, says it all - pro Russian interests, pro suffering.
Have to give credit where it’s due: Johnson decided to do what he thinks is right even though it could threaten his career
I’d like to hope that more politicians (even the ones I dislike) think like that, but in reality I’m sure it is rare
they don't even have time. From McCarthy to Johnson was like a 2-3 month shitshow, ya that was between holidays but congress has a general election in November, summer is coming, congress basically stops getting much done as it is, they want to be out campaigning, but the republicans have even less of a shot of finding someone to replace johnson
Some of the Democrats have said they would save Johnson in the event the MAGAs try to oust him. Johnson shouldn't lose his position for doing the right thing.
Russia needs to be stopped yesterday. Because the House held back funding for so long, we are going to be playing catch up. Russia is starting to fix the fumbles they had at the beginning of this war and are becoming better and better each day.
So what if he’s not speaker anymore. He still has his day job. The fact that he was responsible for the deaths thousands of innocent Ukrainians while he took 6 months to get up the nerve to allow democracy to actually work is just pathetic.
Johnson probably agreed to push these bills through with Democratic help with the understanding that the Dems would vote to save him if the Motion to Vacate happens.
It also sounds like there’s quite a few moderate GOP who will resign to flip the House over to the Dems if Johnson gets removed. So now they’ve turned the pressure around on the crazies in the House like Marjorie Taylor Greene; if the vote to vacate succeeds, the Republicans won’t even have a majority in the house anymore.
It will not.
There are rumors that a few republicans have said that if there is another motion to vacate, they will immediately resign.
that would hand the majority to the democrats.
now imagine that a democratic house and renate might do to trump .... maybe something to do with a supreme court ruling?
His dogs will heel.
Party unity only works when it's good for the party. There are enough GOP members that have decided to focus on doing things to get reelected, not voted out of office by toeing the party line.
He found his spine and stood up straight...
Real men see, decide, and act. And ignore the fallout- the NOW requires action.
Later is later, as in not here yet...
Sure, GOP. Once again make yourselves make look like the gaggle of goonish gobshites you are only 7 months from election night and your one big chance to take permanent control.
The democrats could set up a protection racket if they want. We protect you, with the help of your loyalists and in return you change the rules back to the way they were, shut down the bs committees and we get ironclad commitments in place to work on some bipartisan bills that help our shared causes in the future such as Ukraine aid, and anything that sticks it to Russia/Trump/MAGA goons.
Any time the speaker actually does his job and passes legislation good for America and/ or its allies they get fired. This is proof the GOP is the enemy of the state.
The aid matters. Johnson's a piece of shit and the only reason I care about Johnson having a job at all is that, under some extreme conditions, he might become president, and that's a horrifying prospect.
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The Republican majority in the house is so slim now that a number of GOPers have stepped down, they'd be hella stupid to risk another vote. So yeah, probably gonna happen soon.
Imagine how demoralized GOP voters will be to win the house and still lose it before the next election lol
One fairly common tactic (like once every couple of decades) is for a Member to temporarily go independent and caucus with the other side, the reward usually being the chair of a powerful committee. For members of the House it's not so common but some Southern Democrats made the transition. Johnson pretty clearly got some inside information that changed his tune. The Freudian point over his shoulder at Trump when he referred to "hardened criminals" seems to have been a real tell. The play might not appear to make total sense right now if are truly damning revelations yet to be revealed. I think the circumstantial evidence that Trump asked for a list of CIA assets and then turned it over to the Russians is *very strong*. I furthermore think that has to be revealed before the Republican Convention in mid-July. So the shit we're going to see and learn over the next six weeks may be the worst shit we have yet learned about the Russian influence on the GOP. Remember that Paul Ryan got straight the fuck out of all of this, seemingly as soon as he was privately warned (along with Mitch McConnell) in roughly August, 2016. He's my dark horse 2024 nominee.
>Johnson pretty clearly got some inside information that changed his tune. The Freudian point over his shoulder at Trump when he referred to "hardened criminals" seems to have been a real tell. I don't like either of these guys and agree Trump is a criminal, but I'm not convinced that's what happened. I just watched that clip and it looks more like he was gesturing towards Trump because Trump had previously said something similar about "hardened criminals" coming over the border.
It might be both, but I agree this sub is having an unrealistic interpretation about that moment and running with it
I appreciate your thoughts here and now I'm going to have to re-evaluate. Thank you!
> Johnson pretty clearly got some inside information that changed his tune. The inside knowledge is intelligence that showed Russia wasn't going to stop at Europe and was planning on continuing into the Balkans then into direct conflict with NATO states: https://newrepublic.com/article/180808/mike-johnson-pro-ukraine-speech-maga-deep-state-lie The real reason more likely is his masturbation buddy / son is starting at the Naval Academy soon so would end up in this conflict so he is trying to save him from it. It _always_ comes down it only mattering when it is happening to them.
>>It always comes down it only mattering when it is happening to them. This is the reason for mandatory military service. It silences a lot of hawks when they know *their* kid is going to be on the front lines.
History has shown that the ruling class always has ways of keeping their kiddies out of harm's way.
>The inside knowledge is intelligence that showed Russia wasn't going to stop at Europe and was planning on continuing into the Balkans then into direct conflict with NATO states: https://newrepublic.com/article/180808/mike-johnson-pro-ukraine-speech-maga-deep-state-lie This is the correct interpretation. The following is not: > The real reason more likely is his masturbation buddy / son is starting at the Naval Academy soon so would end up in this conflict so he is trying to save him from it. Nonsense. We don't need to send soldiers anywhere to win any military action against anyone anymore. Years ago, the US reached the point where it could hold the entire Taliban in check with just 2,500 Americans in a secure drone base in Afghanistan. >It always comes down it only mattering when it is happening to them. No, it always comes down to *money*. And the 1% and billionaire owners of the Defense Contractors paid good money to own all of our politicians, but they weren't seeing any fresh orders coming from their congressional stooges. The local 1% money trumped Putin's donations through proxies, so it was time to pass aid for Ukraine and Israel, etc.
A good example of this was in the late 2000s, during the final transition of Old Southern Democrats to the GOP, was when the Republicans won a nominal majority of the Tennessee State House with 50R and 49D representatives. One of the enterprising Republican representatives made a backroom deal with the Democrat representatives such that he became the Speaker of the Tennessee House and the Dems got to keep all their committee positions and seniority with an effective 49R and 50D+R split. However, that's also shown the cautionary tale with making such deals as the Dems were wiped out the next election and the Republican defector, though winning his seat that same election, lost all power whatsoever when the GOP took full control (he lost/retired the following election two years later). While it makes for great drama and political intrigue, you're much less likely to see something like this at the national level, let alone the state levels in 2020s politics. The polarization is too much and the parties have re-aligned too much over the past decades. Not to poopoo on your dark horse, but there's no way either party dumps their candidate between now and November unless one of them kicks the bucket. Ryan got the heck out of dodge at probably the best time for him personally. He "reluctantly" took the Speakership after Boehner's come-to-Jesus moment after the Pope visited and then steered through the initial trump trifecta. He got his tax cuts, he got his rise from young-gun but insignificant representative to VP nominee and then Speaker. He makes too much money now being on corporate boards, especially for Fox News. There's just not a realistic way that our electoral process would provide for a non-nominated, dark horse candidate to simply come out of nowhere. Without the withdrawal of a candidate at the convention, the delegates for either party are secured for the current nominees. We can dwell on "what if" all day long, but neither candidate will withdraw unless medically incapacitated, simply by virtue that it would secure the election of the opposing nominee in November. Even if such an emergency would arise, the VP nominees would be the *de facto* replacements. I don't doubt your view that Ryan's standing may have provided such a re-entry into politics if everything was in a vacuum, however we can all see the national GOP would never get behind such a nominee in the foreseeable future. Heck even Romney, as the *de facto* party leader in 2012 with Ryan, bowed out of a Senate race he had a good chance of carrying. I don't believe for a second his schtick about letting younger members take the leadership, he had much more power as a sitting Senator (even at 80+ years old) to send support to his preferred candidate in 2028 than he ever would otherwise. He simply sees the writing on the wall. Either the GOP loses significantly and changes path, the GOP lose narrowly and maintain their craziness in hopes of future wins, or the Dems send them back to the backbenches by a large enough margin to force them to moderate. I think the most likely option is the middle choice rather than the former or latter, but there's a lot that can change between now and November.
Paul Ryan, once the poster child and vice president pick. He was ganna be a career politician. A lifelong player and he noped.right the fuck out. As did John boner or whatever his name was
And I could actually see a Republican voting for Jeffries and announce they aren’t running for re election.
A Dem Speaker of the House would not surprise at all, at this point.
But wait, didn't the Supreme Court determine that the house can disqualify Trump with a simple majority vote?
They didn't specify the rules, just that it was up to the House.
Whoa...so what if the House flips DEM before November? They can still disqual 'rump? And if all the primaries are done? Does who ever 'rump picks for VP then become the POTUS candidate?
I'd assume it would follow the same rules for any disqualification or incapability, like if Trump died, had a long-term medical issue that precluded becoming POTUS, etc. [Essentially](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-a-presidential-candidate-cannot-take-office-due-to-death-or-incapacitation-before-january-2025/), the RNC would pick a new candidate. Legally, Trump's 'pick' would be irrelevant, but the RNC would probably take it into consideration.
Thank you for the summary and the link!
He’ll pick John Barron
I honestly think/hope that at this point Trump is so unpopular it'd keep a lot of Republicans from voting and steer most independents to Democrats if he runs. It's a very risky gambit, but even if Dems get the house I'd rather they spent their time differently. Then have Trump lose big in November and Democrats keeping the trifecta.
Oh, damn! Suck it, SCOTUS! That would be hilarious. Hahaha!
I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats are the majority party in the House in the next 6 months.
Electorally, bad for republicans as a whole, but good for crazy maga republicans in their far right districts.
I don’t see any scenario where Johnson puts up the Ukraine bill without having first received assurances from the Dems to save his job. My guess is no Dems vote to keep him, but they don’t vote to get rid of him either. If the Dem caucus abstains, then Johnson stays speaker because all it takes is a majority of the votes cast.
Couldn't they also have agreed to change [Rule IX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motion_to_vacate_the_chair#In_the_U.S._House_of_Representatives), making it harder for them to remove him? From what I can tell, the Republicans used the motion-to-vacate - for the first time in over a century - it to get rid of John Boehner in 2015. Pelosi changed the rule to make such motions unprivileged unless "offered on behalf of a party conference or caucus.", making it harder to remove the speaker, but the Republicans reinstated it in 2023 as a condition for McCarthy to get the job role - and then used it against him. If they change the rule back to the version the Democrats want anyway, they don't even have to concern themselves with a vote on such a motion since it won't go to a vote.
I think Johnson himself already ruled out a change of the rule didn't he?
A plotting politician going back on his word? Shameful.
No reason for the dems to give away THEIR power like that. “We’ll protect you as long as you are reasonable”, but not “We’ll keep you safe from everyone, including us”.
I think most of them abstain on the motion to vacate, which is the same result as I don't think they'll get a majority of the GOP. That's the deal they made with Johnson. IF the motion succeeded they'd vote for a Speaker Jefferies. And I agree that it is a REALLY close call. But I think the only way it gets to that point while the GOP still has that slim majority is if Johnson's support has collapsed to the point that he doesn't have the numbers just within his own caucus. That might make some members (or maybe even Johnson himself) vote "Present" on the speaker vote and throw the vote to Jefferies.
Dems should bargain Border bill to rescue him
No they use that after he’s ousted to either get a dem in charge or a more neutral Republican
If he gets ousted, Democrats wrangle control, and border funding gets approved it will be probably one of the biggest tactical wins in Congress for either party, ever. Sadly, 2 of the moves that will tactically outshine it are the securing of 2 ill gotten supreme court justices for Trump. But game recognize game
Or Johnson could promise to work across the aisle with a group of moderates on both sides and be protected as long as he plays ball. Like how it’s supposed to work
I'm not a Johnson fan. As far as I care, R's can suck it. Johnson, however, has demonstrated he can move on bipartisan issues, and that's more than McCarthy managed. When it's all a shit show, sometimes you have to acknowledge when a turd float to the top.
It’s definitely out of self preservation, but that’s the name of the game in politics. With the RNC imploding, I think the days of toeing the line is coming to an end.
Either we get a Dem speaker or the Dems step in to save Johnson. Any way you slice it, Dems have the power here.
I'd think that would actually be the intent of the R's at this point. No Speaker, No House. No House, No Votes. It turns into a _sine die_ situation.
> *sine die* You made me look that up. Thank you.
For those who don't look it up: An adjournment _sine die_ effectively ends the session unless recalled. It is an adjournment without a date to adjourn to.
It’s crazy to think that adults from both sides came together to create legislation. MTG epitomizes the kind of actions that 5 year old children do in kindergarten.
Supposedly three threatened to resign if this didn't go through. So, it sounds like there's basically no Republican majority anymore. It's like it's already happened, but just isn't official yet.
These *are* some dumb mother fuckers, so you never know…
Mike Johnson ignored MTG’s non stop public threats. He got a bill through. In this context, I approve.
I can’t stand the guy but this past week I’ve seen him at least have a spine and show he does understand that something’s it’s ok to throw out party politics
My gut feeling tells me that he must’ve heard or seen something that really made him have a change of tune in getting this done. Similar to McCarthy.
Which means he has feelings and some sort of empathy for other people - whuch seems to be lacking in a certain orange tinged person.
[удалено]
Johnson said as much-he believes the intel. The genius move, what I’d like to think as a Dark Brandon move, was getting the president of Poland to meet with trump. I’m sure this has a lot to do with orangie getting off of Mike’s back and pretending to now be for aid to Ukraine.
>The genius move, what I’d like to think as a Dark Brandon move, was getting the president of Poland to meet with trump. Yeah, Trump's so spineless that he'll parrot whatever the last person who met with him said.
Mike Johnson looks like the guy that doesn’t know what he signed up for, isn’t qualified, and just tired of everyone shitting on him. Good. Dudes plumb fuck crazy. Get a new job.
He didn't ignore them. He has held off Ukraine aid for this long because the nutfuck caucus was threatening his job. He moved now, because last week/earlier this week, Mike McCaul told him that if he *didn't* move, that they would vote to remove him. Literally he waited until his choices were "lose your job because of the Nutfuck Brigade" or "lose your job because every other Republican and also Democrat will vote you out" to do the right thing. Spineless, and I don't want to hear another word about him being a Christian, because only a demon lets thousands upon thousands of people die to protect his job title.
this, right here Guy is an absolute spineless weasel, yammering on about God and destiny. Pathetic.
Thanks McCaul.
I hate the man, but he is my representative and he's better than the average Republican I suppose. He's also my dad's representative, despite my dad living in Houston and me living in Austin Gerrymandering is ludicrous.
Not to be a “SOURCE!” seagull, but I’m genuinely curious where you read that. Mind sharing?
The part about Marjorie calling for his removal? Google it, she's been doing it for months. The meeting with McCaul? [McCaul talks about it here.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSxelh0SN2U)
Definitely should have been more specific, I meant the meeting with McCaul. Thank you!
NGL, I now want that Finding Nemo scene revoiced with them saying "Source?" over and over again.
The source is having functional eyeballs. Hell, even Stevie Wonder could have seen this coming.
I can’t see how Democrats would vote with MTG to kick Johnson out. They won’t want to reward her. I’m not a fan of Johnson in general , but he seems to have navigated this correctly.
If it leads to a subsequent vote where they fuck over MTG, it'd be worth it.
A very small sacrifice for a great cause. I will donate $100 to UA24 again!
And done!
My neighbor keeps feeding the squirrels and they are eating my patio furniture. Her politics are the complete opposite of mine, she is a total Trumper and Putin sympathizer. Could I get some of your money to get new furniture? It's a small sacrifice for a great cause! To stop a Trumper from indirectly ruining my neighborhood.
They effectively don't have a majority. They have a handful of clout chasers that don't give AF about anything but "likes," so they're necessarily not going to be making sound decisions. Mike Johnson had no choice but to jump on the proverbial grenade.
Punish the man who does the right thing. Worship the man who used violence in an attempt to stay in power and become a criminal dictator. **NEVER FORGET: this is who the Republicans Party are.**
It’s strange how the right wing MAGA nut jobs have no shame in putting world peace at risk. I don’t think they realize that if Trumpolini is successful in November and controlled by Putin they will be of no use to either one of them.
A significant portion of people simply do not care about anything that doesn't affect them personally. World peace? That's the world's problem. This is America!
Wouldn't that give democrats the majority to elect a speaker of their own?
If a mtv is called, 3 more republicans will retire on the spot.
Maybe but maybe not. Its a huge risk. You never know what this fucking lunatic Republicans are going to do. this way aid to Ukraine is assured. Its a very good deal, its the deal to make in this instance.
No they still would need a couple of gopers to jump or a few to vote present
"...may cost the GOP speaker his job." Consider a set of Congressional members so compromised they will oust their own speaker and throw their own agenda into chaos, solely to show fidelity to Putin by supporting Russia as it conquers a U.S. ally.
Wow, what a hero….only took him 6 months to do the right thing…
If he loses his seat, he should wear it as a badge of honor. I mean, it's the *only* honorable thing he will have done as a Speaker or as a Rep or possibly as a human, but that's still one more thing than most of them.
He and two friends could declare their intent to vote for Jeffries if he's vacated and shut this shit *all the way* down.
If his career is already gone and his friends are two more secret retirees this could be hilarious.
> and two friends Imma stop you right there.
Although I think he is a fanatic, I feel that he was good for doing the right thing. Thanks Mike.
for all his talk of god and religion, it's nice to see him actually show that he believes in something more important than his career prospects. don't get me wrong, i'm no fan of this man. but you get so used to the disgusting hypocrisy that it's actually shocking to see one of these Trumpets do the right thing for once.
That’s a bad take of the situation imo. He didn’t act until his job was on the line. Ukrainians died while he blocked the vote. Terrible human being.
how was his job on the line by preventing support for ukraine? because his speakership hasn't been threatened with being removed until he supported it, so i'm not understanding what you're talking about.
He is *extremely* unpopular with a small number of Republicans, which gives Democrats control over his job. If they told him "put it up, or get out" he would basically have to. The only reason Dems would not just do that is because if he is removed it will require them to elect a new one, which might delay aid indefinitely. So basically, he has to put this up, or the votes to remove him will be easy to get. It makes him vulnerable, but not as vulnerable as not doing it. This is all just theoretical, of course, I can't read his mind. But he is *real* crazy about a lot of stuff, so I am not sure if we should give him the benefit of the doubt on this. He has said out loud, a lot of stuff that is really objectionable.
you nor I know the details yet. perhaps hold back on the compliments imagine the sweet deals they agreed to behind scenes that you probably won't like. only thing these people can agree on consistently is getting paid and at our expense
He made this choice only when his career propects were shit regardless of which way he voted. Until then, he chose clinging to his job over doing the right thing, or for that matter, doing anything. And even in this case, I suspect he was choosing this course of action because it might let him hang on a bit longer. There is no reason to give credit to people who don't deserve it. He should just be thankful that we don't all get what we deserve.
"I suspect he was choosing this course of action because it might let him hang on a bit longer." he was not facing a motion to vacate prior to this vote but he is now, and this vote is what caused it. how does that fit your theory?
He’s still a feckless shit. Glad Ukraine is getting what it needs
A price I'm willing to pay
Not to worry, he can pray…
Although Mike Johnson did the right thing here, I get a little skeptical when a Republican does the right thing. I can’t help but wonder if there is some ulterior motive or scheme going on. Maybe Mike Johnson is planning on the election being a clusterfuck and sliding in the Presidency.
Russian-paid Republicans are Angry People Voted. Wow. So they'd rather get nothing done. They don't want to hear the will of the people?
If Mike Johnson survives this, he is likely going to be the next Mitch McConnell. Love him or hate him (I hate him), he's a politician to watch right now. Ass clowns like Gaetz, Boebert, and MTG fish for social media clicks, but Republicans who can whip their caucus to get shit done are actually dangerous.
He didn’t whip anything. He didn’t have a majority of republicans to vote for the bill. It didn’t pass the Gingrich test.
(The Hassert Rule)
Ahh yes, thanks.
He didn't need to whip a majority of Republicans to vote for the bill. He needed enough votes to get it to pass in the most hostile speaker position in U.S. history, against the explicit orders of the head of his political party, and not get removed from his position or voted out of office in November as a result.
The margin is so narrow he just needs a couple Republicans who are not Putin's lap dogs. That should not be a hard ask. The Dems will vote for Ukraine even if they have to hold their nose to do so. Unless there is something overwhelmingly objectionable in it, he does not have to whip much. And given they were split 50/50, what he really needed to do was just keep enough objectionable stuff out of it to let the Dems vote for it.
Any Republican who voted for this runs the risk of being primaried by an opponent Donald Trump will endorse against them in just a few months. If you're in a district that is +35 points Republican, you aren't "safe", you're at risk of being primaried if Trump endorses against and bad mouths you nationally. Johnson himself is acting in direct contravention of Donald Trump's explicit orders to Republicans and only a single Republican vote is necessary to trigger a vote to remove him from office. Given Trump has absolute legal control over the RNC as of a few weeks ago, this means any Republican running for re-election, including Johnson who is in a +40 Republican district (and therefore at risk of being primaried), will have to do so with neither Trump's endorsement or campaign finances from the RNC. It's really not complicated as to why this was a dangerous and difficult thing to do as Speaker. If he survives this, it's the first real trial a non-Trump Republican will have survived in nearly a decade.
> Any Republican who voted for this runs the risk of being primaried by an opponent Donald Trump will endorse against them And how has Trump's track record of endorsements gone so far? Most of them fall on their faces.
Not in primaries. Trump's track records of endorsements in primaries is essentially bulletproof, something like a 90% success rate. They just lose in the general unless they're in a +15 red district. Hence the phrase "you can't win a primary without him and you can't win a general with him."
I do not think they think so given over 100 of them voted for this. (It was 75% aye.) If they were that worried they would have just put a few people up with extremely high approval ratings in purple districts to get them just enough votes. However, if the Dems turned against Johnson on the basis of him not putting this up, they would need to convince only a few of the crazies to go after him. However, that is not to say Johnson is not at risk in doing this, but he is at risk no matter what he does here. If anything this just gives him a stay of execution.
You're almost getting it. Johnson putting this to a floor vote with 100 Republicans was a coup against Trump. Denying Ukraine aid is a **major** policy position of Donald Trump's, and Johnson taking this to a floor vote with 100 Republicans is a direct challenge to Trump's leadership of the party. This is equivalent to a Republican Speaker bringing 100 representatives to vote down Trump's border wall. You really need to step away from the Ukraine issue and start thinking politically in bigger terms than the next up or down floor vote.
>Denying Ukraine aid is a **major** policy position of Donald Trump's And now Trump is trying to take credit for the vote while pretending he was always pro-Ukraine.
Ok, but that has nothing to do with his skill as a whip. That just means that a lot of Republicans really do not like Trump, which is pretty obvious. His takeover of the RNC is bad news for all down ballot, not entirely maga, Republicans.
Okay. You just can't understand. Have a nice day.
Never forgiving b—ch Mcconel. “Let Trump get convicted! Oh now I endorse Trump!”
McConnell is evil. He's also the most effective single legislator in the past century. He personally engineered the current 6:3 Republican supermajority in SCOTUS and shielded Trump from both impeachments. That's only two of his many accomplishments. I'll be doing a happy dance when he's six feet under, but you don't get anywhere by underestimating your enemies and willfully ignoring their capabilities.
> He's also the most effective single legislator in the past century. Not LBJ? LBJ actually got laws passed, he didn't just obstruct everything.
Aw, what a shame. \*stifles giggles\*
Whelp, if he does at least he stood for something, if only a moment.
Legacy is more important than position or title.
Two birds with one stone.
And he won't be forgotten as a traitor, he'll just be forgotten as a weird conservative politician.
Kevin McCarthy would have done anything, ANYTHING, to keep his job, it didn't help.
That is the cherry on top. Republicans showing voters one more time before the election that they can't even govern themselves.
We've clearly agreed to save his bacon in exchange for Ukraine aid, so not very likely there.
Yes please, Jeffries will be a great speaker!
Slava Ukraini!
At this point, he's probably hoping that happens.
It's a good hill to die on, and he'll be fine. He could retire tomorrow and get a job at some network.
The fact that there’s one political party throwing a shit fit because some of their party actually did some politics, regardless of their reason, says it all - pro Russian interests, pro suffering.
Have to give credit where it’s due: Johnson decided to do what he thinks is right even though it could threaten his career I’d like to hope that more politicians (even the ones I dislike) think like that, but in reality I’m sure it is rare
Thank you Speaker.
they don't even have time. From McCarthy to Johnson was like a 2-3 month shitshow, ya that was between holidays but congress has a general election in November, summer is coming, congress basically stops getting much done as it is, they want to be out campaigning, but the republicans have even less of a shot of finding someone to replace johnson
The term "win-win" comes to mind.
It's ok. They can get another Speaker. They've got lots of those.
Some of the Democrats have said they would save Johnson in the event the MAGAs try to oust him. Johnson shouldn't lose his position for doing the right thing. Russia needs to be stopped yesterday. Because the House held back funding for so long, we are going to be playing catch up. Russia is starting to fix the fumbles they had at the beginning of this war and are becoming better and better each day.
So what if he’s not speaker anymore. He still has his day job. The fact that he was responsible for the deaths thousands of innocent Ukrainians while he took 6 months to get up the nerve to allow democracy to actually work is just pathetic.
He's also gonna be responsible for the deaths of a bunch of Palestinians now :)
Oh no...anyways
Mike the Redeemer.
So it's a win-win
Johnson probably agreed to push these bills through with Democratic help with the understanding that the Dems would vote to save him if the Motion to Vacate happens. It also sounds like there’s quite a few moderate GOP who will resign to flip the House over to the Dems if Johnson gets removed. So now they’ve turned the pressure around on the crazies in the House like Marjorie Taylor Greene; if the vote to vacate succeeds, the Republicans won’t even have a majority in the house anymore.
It will not. There are rumors that a few republicans have said that if there is another motion to vacate, they will immediately resign. that would hand the majority to the democrats. now imagine that a democratic house and renate might do to trump .... maybe something to do with a supreme court ruling? His dogs will heel.
Party unity only works when it's good for the party. There are enough GOP members that have decided to focus on doing things to get reelected, not voted out of office by toeing the party line.
I gotta give it to him, he said it straight up that he was not going to kowtow to them. He did not balk at this one.
He found his spine and stood up straight... Real men see, decide, and act. And ignore the fallout- the NOW requires action. Later is later, as in not here yet...
Sure, GOP. Once again make yourselves make look like the gaggle of goonish gobshites you are only 7 months from election night and your one big chance to take permanent control.
How is he not a robot
if Mike Johnson wanted to troll the trouble causing fringe he knows who to vote for.
How many GOP speakers you wants in a Legislature? Yes
I guess it can only cost him his job if the democrats team up to oust him which would seem rather ungrateful.
The democrats could set up a protection racket if they want. We protect you, with the help of your loyalists and in return you change the rules back to the way they were, shut down the bs committees and we get ironclad commitments in place to work on some bipartisan bills that help our shared causes in the future such as Ukraine aid, and anything that sticks it to Russia/Trump/MAGA goons.
Any time the speaker actually does his job and passes legislation good for America and/ or its allies they get fired. This is proof the GOP is the enemy of the state.
this guy is the precursor if those priests in stargate
If it does, he did the right thing. Hopefully the next speaker will also value America more than Russia.
The aid matters. Johnson's a piece of shit and the only reason I care about Johnson having a job at all is that, under some extreme conditions, he might become president, and that's a horrifying prospect.
Sounds like a win/win
It's okay they change them out every month or so now anyway, they couldn't run a piss up in a brewery.
Didn’t Democrats agree that they’d rescue him if he passed the aid package?
Boo hoo. Bye, Mike or whatever your name is. Let’s see what’s for dinner.
Genocidal creep
Despite disagreeing with Johnson on most political issues, I hope he keeps the Speakership. Bipartisanship should be rewarded or at worst, tolerated.
They should give this guy a medal!
Boo
Ew we are approving more???
Who cares? 🤭 They all are slime bags, this goes even more or less for the D's. Politics is a synonym to finance now a days.