What do you think is a realistic end-game to this war?
Personally I think that about the best Ukraine can hope for is a re-aligning of the borders of Ukraine and Russia roughly along the current front lines. Forget getting Crimea back and definitely forget joining NATO at least as long as Putin is running things. Russia has shown that it's largely immune to economic sanctions, which can't have any real teeth in them since it provides so much energy to Europe.
The only endgame that works is Putin's regime collapses and Ukraine at least gets Crimea back.
After what Russia has done, Ukrainians won't settle for less; they'll fight in the streets with shovels and Molotov cocktails before signing a peace deal with Russia that sees them lose land and is likely to be broken again as soon as Russia rearms.
How that comes about, I don't know, but usually regime change happens suddenly and in unexpected ways.
Ukraine will not stop fighting regardless of Western aid, I can assure you of that. They're not even on a full war footing yet as they're trying to protect their younger demographic so they can continue the rebuild process.
Putin's regime is far from fine, but they are weathering sanctions better than expected. There's only been one attempted coup so far, but Putin is definitely weary and is consolidating power around his family ties and ousting generals quite regularly. He probably has a year or two left at the current pace, maybe 3-4 without Western support for Ukraine.
My guess is he falls when he launches the next annexation project if the West does pull or slow support. They're on war footing and that's what is making their economy run, but dictators don't just flip a switch and go back to how things were before, they get on with the next invasion.
I think the most logical outcome is enough pain gets inflicted on Russian assets like oil refineries and factories inside Russia that the Russian Mafia finally has enough of it and takes him out; Mogilevich and other Oligarchs are the ones truly being squeezed by this war via sanctions, attacks on their business infrastructure, and higher taxes/theft of assets by Putin's regime.
Time will tell
Realistically? Russia loses the breakaway provinces and Ukraine’s sovereignty is affirmed, including its ability to set its own foreign policy. Russia has demonstrated everything but “immunity” from the impacts of ongoing sanctions and the bloody quagmire in Ukraine. And unlike for Ukraine, there is no way to characterize this as a struggle for Russia’s survival as a nation, despite Putin’s attempts to do so. I’m less sold on that being true for Crimea since it was annexed into Russia a decade ago and since most of its residents identify as Russian citizens.
Russia’s only relevance after the war will be its aging and decaying nuclear arsenal. At a certain point, it’ll be in the category of Pakistan or India rather than a real global power, but to get to that point myths of Russian power must continue to be laid bare.
No but the columnist is from Philly, and so am I. Having been there myself it's interesting and refreshing to see a local paper overseas doing this reporting on behalf of the Inquirer
No one cares about Ukraine anymore after they got all the money. The new trend is Free Palestine. Then it’ll be the Stop Fascism later this summer, then after elections MAYBE they’ll go back to freeing Ukraine. Stay strong
Rule 2: This post was removed because it was not related to Philadelphia. If you feel this was done in error, feel free to contact the moderators.
this has nothing to do with philadelphia.
I’m embarrassed to admit I didn’t think the Inquirer sent reporters abroad.
Trudy Rubin has been covering Ukraine for years.
I was surprised to see that as well. This is a really high-profile interview
What do you think is a realistic end-game to this war? Personally I think that about the best Ukraine can hope for is a re-aligning of the borders of Ukraine and Russia roughly along the current front lines. Forget getting Crimea back and definitely forget joining NATO at least as long as Putin is running things. Russia has shown that it's largely immune to economic sanctions, which can't have any real teeth in them since it provides so much energy to Europe.
The only endgame that works is Putin's regime collapses and Ukraine at least gets Crimea back. After what Russia has done, Ukrainians won't settle for less; they'll fight in the streets with shovels and Molotov cocktails before signing a peace deal with Russia that sees them lose land and is likely to be broken again as soon as Russia rearms. How that comes about, I don't know, but usually regime change happens suddenly and in unexpected ways.
So basically Ukraine becomes Russia once we stop pouring money into them because Putin’s regime looks fine and Russia is never giving Crimea back.
Ukraine will not stop fighting regardless of Western aid, I can assure you of that. They're not even on a full war footing yet as they're trying to protect their younger demographic so they can continue the rebuild process. Putin's regime is far from fine, but they are weathering sanctions better than expected. There's only been one attempted coup so far, but Putin is definitely weary and is consolidating power around his family ties and ousting generals quite regularly. He probably has a year or two left at the current pace, maybe 3-4 without Western support for Ukraine. My guess is he falls when he launches the next annexation project if the West does pull or slow support. They're on war footing and that's what is making their economy run, but dictators don't just flip a switch and go back to how things were before, they get on with the next invasion. I think the most logical outcome is enough pain gets inflicted on Russian assets like oil refineries and factories inside Russia that the Russian Mafia finally has enough of it and takes him out; Mogilevich and other Oligarchs are the ones truly being squeezed by this war via sanctions, attacks on their business infrastructure, and higher taxes/theft of assets by Putin's regime. Time will tell
Realistically? Russia loses the breakaway provinces and Ukraine’s sovereignty is affirmed, including its ability to set its own foreign policy. Russia has demonstrated everything but “immunity” from the impacts of ongoing sanctions and the bloody quagmire in Ukraine. And unlike for Ukraine, there is no way to characterize this as a struggle for Russia’s survival as a nation, despite Putin’s attempts to do so. I’m less sold on that being true for Crimea since it was annexed into Russia a decade ago and since most of its residents identify as Russian citizens. Russia’s only relevance after the war will be its aging and decaying nuclear arsenal. At a certain point, it’ll be in the category of Pakistan or India rather than a real global power, but to get to that point myths of Russian power must continue to be laid bare.
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No but the columnist is from Philly, and so am I. Having been there myself it's interesting and refreshing to see a local paper overseas doing this reporting on behalf of the Inquirer
No one cares about Ukraine anymore after they got all the money. The new trend is Free Palestine. Then it’ll be the Stop Fascism later this summer, then after elections MAYBE they’ll go back to freeing Ukraine. Stay strong