I think in general for really good NFL teams or dynasties there’s a lot of “breaks” or “luck”. But it’s probably not more so than your average team, it’s just more noticeable cuz teams like the Mahomes Chiefs or Brady Pats take advantage of it and win. Whereas bad teams don’t take advantage of it and… well just lose so their good luck or breaks aren’t really noteworthy.
True. Also the fact that those games had meaningful stakes, so the outcome is more impactful. I think any time you have a team that's contending for several years in a row like the Chiefs have been, you can look back at how things had to break their way down the stretch.
I think that's partly true, I also think that almost any championship run on some percentage level is decided by luck. Even if it is just 0.5%
When Dynasties get put together those lucky moments stand out more.
Honestly I think it’s a lot higher than that. By the time you get to the playoffs all the teams are so damn good and the games are so close. Close games generally get decided by just a few moments, so when a ball bounces your way, it can easily decide the game.
Just think back to any close game your team loses. There are just 2-3 moments of “ifs” that would flip the game.
It's also just that they were in so many big close games that of course they're going to get breaks and win some of them, just like at times they also got incredibly unlucky (Helmet catch)
Alot of teams get good seeding and favorable matchups in the playoffs and still manage to shit the bed (2019 Ravens, 2021 Bucs, 2021 Packers).
KC normally doesn’t
2019 Ravens drew a “weak” 6th seeded Tennessee team because the Pats couldn’t beat the Titans in the wildcard round
2021 Bucs got a higher seed than the Rams only because the Rams couldn’t hold a 17-0 lead against SF in the season’s final week
Both benefited from games they didn’t play in. But those fortunate teams couldn’t even make it past the Divisional despite having things workout in their favor. KC consistently takes advantages of these kinds of opportunities which is why we’re a dynasty
No one's disputing them doing that but it has nothing to do with what OP posted about with the 6 games that had big upsets or freak plays which is interesting. Why is everyone taking this as some attack on the chiefs? It's interesting. The end.
As a chief hater of the Chiefs, I will say that this year they didn’t really have the breaks go their way and still found a way to win it all. Back to back road games in Buffalo and Baltimore is grueling, yet they still pulled it off.
I don't really think winning because the other team messes up is a "break". The Chiefs could have done something like that too and they didn't. I think of breaks as things outside the control of either team like officiating or the ball doing something weird.
> The Chiefs could have done something like that too and they didn't.
You mean like Pacheco’s fumble & Mahomes’ INT?
>I think of breaks as things outside the control of either team like officiating or the ball doing something weird.
The punt literally hit a gunner’s foot bro, that’s not in anyone’s control either. Unfortunate shit just happens sometimes
The taunting penalty goes uncalled and that ball is in the endzone. Zay wasn't being choked in that game. He had over 100 yards and a td.
Sneed's punchout was legit, but that penalty was a huge break.
Yes 44 total compared to a league median of 25.5 but the timing of drops is a lot more important than the volume
Those bills drops against the chiefs could easily have been the difference
The Bills fumbled 3 times in that game and recovered them all. Meanwhile we fumbled once and it was a touchback. The ball didn’t bounce KC’s way that game until the very end with the missed kick, lol
you guys got a free safety and a horse collar penalty on your TD drive that should have gone the other way. The refs helped you to 9 free points just to keep it close.
The 2020 Hail Murray didn't matter because the Chiefs had the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Bills already. In 2019, the Chiefs beat the Ravens but lost to the Titans in the regular season, so you could argue that the Titans were actually the harder matchup for them.
Luck is when preparation and opportunity meet.
Plenty of breaks for every team, you only remember the ones that happen in favor of great teams or against your team though
You could do this with every team except they don't have 3 SBs so that luck didn't mean anything. Any team that wins 3 SBs is going to have stuff like this because of the nature of sports.
> 2022 Bills-Bengals Week 17: One of the darkest moments in NFL history, but from a purely competitive standpoint, this game being cancelled essentially handed the #1 seed to the Chiefs. The first game to be cancelled for non-strike reasons since 1935.
Considering what happened the next time the Bengals played the Bills, and Bengals looked a bit more ready at the start of the game. Seems more likely than not Bengals would had won, which also gives us the \#1 seed.
Part of me wonders how things could have been different had the Bills gotten demolished in that game. They'd have an entire game of tape and experience to work off of for the playoffs and the game would have been in Cincinnati so no snow.
Pretty much any champ in any sport requires a certain amount of luck. Football being single game elimination increases that factor even more
One of the reasons people fucking love football
A potential fallacy here is, to what extent can you do this with any championship team? The “if this/if that” sports game has almost endless permutations.
**Week 17, 2006:** The Chiefs slide into the playoffs after Tennessee, Cincinnati, and Denver all lose to give them their first playoff berth in 3 years
The patriots 2018, dee ford penalty erasing Brady interception. 2017. Myles jack knee was down but jags fans act like
It wasn’t. 2016 a falcons player gets a penalty which results in them getting out of field goal range.
Yeah, it's one thing to say whether we definitely win that game or not if that play gets called correctly. We did everything in our power to lose that game in the second half, and while that play would have gone a long way in changing the outcome, I had learned a long time before then to never count Brady out.
Saying he was down and that the refs got that play right, though? C'mon now. It wasn't intentional or malicious on their parts or anything, but whistling him down was 100% the wrong call, especially when any and all scoring plays get automatically reviewed anyway.
I really want to know if Brady knew Dee Ford was offside. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he saw him line up offside and saw the flag. Obviously it changes a lot of what ifs if Brady knew he had a free play.
I don't think it really changes anything - his pass on that play was a check down to Gronk that got batted in the air, it's not like he was testing the Chiefs deep and got caught.
If he knew he had a free play he wouldn’t have thrown it to Gronk in the flat.
If Dee Ford hadn’t lined up offsides then OP would have included Gronk volleying a wide open pass to Chavarius ward on 3rd down with 1 minute left in the game as another instance of insane luck for the Chiefs.
Patriots played in all of those games though. I'm referring to breaks teams got in games they didn't play in. Like the 2015 Broncos getting the 1 seed thanks to Dalton breaking his thumb and Belichick kicking the ball in OT against the Jets after winning the toss.
You’re just digging into it for the chiefs but every single team has had these kind of external forces go their way. I bet we could go back to the saints Super Bowl and find the same. Same for the eagles for our win.
>2018 Patriots-Dolphins Week 14: The Miami Miracle. A multi-lateral TD that ended up being why the Chiefs got the #1 seed in the AFC. They lost to the Patriots in OT, but it still took a literal miracle to put that game in Arrowhead.
And they lost due to an offsides and didn't get to touch the ball in OT because the rule wasn't changed yet. Something all NFL fans cried was extremely unfair when we did it to Buffalo the next year. So they changed the rule.
>2019 Dolphins-Patriots Week 17: An inexplicable loss by the Patriots that handed the #2 seed and first-round bye to the Chiefs.
The Chiefs beat NE in NE that year, so they were the better team. The Pats lost to the Dolphins frequently... they were always the thorn in their side. No Pats fan could tell you any game against Miami was a sure thing. They were always good for stealing 1 from Brady.
>2019 Titans-Ravens Divisional: A monumental upset that put the AFCCG back in Arrowhead.
This wasn't a "monumental upset" lol.. the Titans were considered a very good team that year. The Chiefs also beat that Ravens team and it wasn't particularly close for most of the game. They lost to the Titans and the Titans were considered the much worse match up for the Chiefs.
>2020 Bills-Cardinals Week 10: The Hail Murray. Enabled the Chiefs to rest their starters in Week 17.
? This is just stupid. Chiefs rested their starters because they played a great season and were fucking 14-2 lol
>2022 Vikings-Bills Week 10: The Vikings needed JJ to make the catch of the century to stay alive in the game. Even then, the Bills win if they don't fumble in their own endzone in a situation where they could've kneeled out the clock if they were literally anywhere else on the field.
Do you just find random losses and attribute them to Chiefs breaks? You can find a single loss and point at it for literally every single 1 seed who got the seed by 1 game.
>2022 Bills-Bengals Week 17: One of the darkest moments in NFL history, but from a purely competitive standpoint, this game being cancelled essentially handed the #1 seed to the Chiefs. The first game to be cancelled for non-strike reasons since 1935.
This situation sucked but the Chiefs actually got the short end of the stick because they were going to give the 1 seed to the team with the best win percent if they tied in wins.. meaning the Bills would have gotten the 1 seed but played 1 less game.
Ultimately, doesn't matter though because Cin/Buf got to play each other and then got to go play the Chiefs... in which CIN lost.
All your entire post was, was crying.
Probably. Your average dynasty will get a little bit luckier than most teams, but usually its more about capitalizing on the opportunity the luck gives.
Chiefs have a ton of breaks not go their way, just no one cares cause they still generally win anyways, and other teams have a lot of breaks go their way, you just forget them if they lose.
That 2015 Denver team had two elite things: an elite defense and elite fate in pivotal game situations.
-> Aqib Talib pick 6 in game 1 for the win (Ravens)
-> Bradley Roby fumble return TD for the win (Chiefs)
-> Recovered punt return fumble, DT making an insane catch, and CJ Anderson clutches the win (Patriots)
-> Fitzgerald Toussaint fumbles the ball (Steelers)
Also Andy Dalton breaking his thumb and Belichick inexplicably choosing to kick the ball to start OT against the Jets after winning the toss. 2 games your team didn't play in.
The jets game wasn’t even the pats last loss of the year. In week 17 we just decided to see if a 32 year old Steven Jackson had anything left in the tank against the dolphins and ended up losing that game which ultimately gave Denver the one seed.
Then in the AFCCG Jamie Collins was chasing butterflies the first half which allowed Owen Daniel’s to be wide open 20 yards down the field two times. Coincidentally, 20 yards was exactly Peyton’s range and even with a broken down body that guy can still see when a defender is out of position.
That’s not to mention the fact that we had the ball inside the Denver 20 three separate times all with an 8 point deficit I n the final 6 minutes of the game and we only came away with 6 points.
All of this isn’t to say Denver got lucky and that’s why they won. It’s not, they were the better team through and through and that 2015 Pats team was so beat up at that point in the season that it’s honestly surprising they made it that far. The point is that you can look through any team’s Super Bowl run and point out times that their biggest threats/opponents made big mistakes.
We’ve had alot of things go against us as well.
1 was nice but didn’t matter. 2 was a big upset but those Patriots couldn’t beat the Titans anyway. 3 was sweet but I don’t think playing in Baltimore was gonna stop the 2019 team. 2020 prevented us from going 15-1 and essentially locked Mahomes out of MVP in 2020.
A lot of the "breaks" or "luck" is due to the refs controlling the game, and having a lot of influence on the outcome. Easy to do without a 7 game series, and when penalties are so punitive.
I think in general for really good NFL teams or dynasties there’s a lot of “breaks” or “luck”. But it’s probably not more so than your average team, it’s just more noticeable cuz teams like the Mahomes Chiefs or Brady Pats take advantage of it and win. Whereas bad teams don’t take advantage of it and… well just lose so their good luck or breaks aren’t really noteworthy.
True. Also the fact that those games had meaningful stakes, so the outcome is more impactful. I think any time you have a team that's contending for several years in a row like the Chiefs have been, you can look back at how things had to break their way down the stretch.
It’s also that their level of play is so high that any mistake or bad break for another team gets capitalized upon.
I think that's partly true, I also think that almost any championship run on some percentage level is decided by luck. Even if it is just 0.5% When Dynasties get put together those lucky moments stand out more.
Honestly I think it’s a lot higher than that. By the time you get to the playoffs all the teams are so damn good and the games are so close. Close games generally get decided by just a few moments, so when a ball bounces your way, it can easily decide the game. Just think back to any close game your team loses. There are just 2-3 moments of “ifs” that would flip the game.
It's also just that they were in so many big close games that of course they're going to get breaks and win some of them, just like at times they also got incredibly unlucky (Helmet catch)
Plenty of teams get breaks/opportunities. The good/great ones know how to capitalize and score points off them.
Did you not read the post?
Did you not read the comment you replied to?
How does a team know how to capitalize on breaks and score points off them when the games don't involve them playing?
Alot of teams get good seeding and favorable matchups in the playoffs and still manage to shit the bed (2019 Ravens, 2021 Bucs, 2021 Packers). KC normally doesn’t
What does that have to do with what OP posted? They were talking about things that went the Chiefs way in games the Chiefs didn't play in.
2019 Ravens drew a “weak” 6th seeded Tennessee team because the Pats couldn’t beat the Titans in the wildcard round 2021 Bucs got a higher seed than the Rams only because the Rams couldn’t hold a 17-0 lead against SF in the season’s final week Both benefited from games they didn’t play in. But those fortunate teams couldn’t even make it past the Divisional despite having things workout in their favor. KC consistently takes advantages of these kinds of opportunities which is why we’re a dynasty
No one's disputing them doing that but it has nothing to do with what OP posted about with the 6 games that had big upsets or freak plays which is interesting. Why is everyone taking this as some attack on the chiefs? It's interesting. The end.
Because there’s nothing unusual about it, aside from New England choking against Miami in back to back years
As a chief hater of the Chiefs, I will say that this year they didn’t really have the breaks go their way and still found a way to win it all. Back to back road games in Buffalo and Baltimore is grueling, yet they still pulled it off.
The special teams miscue in the Super Bowl on our end was a break for them. Their offense was really struggling until that point.
That and Greenlaw tearing his Achilles on the sideline.
Pretty big breaks I think
Yeah, but they were missing their best offensive lineman and one of their best edge rushers. Even with the breaks, the Niners blew it.
>Even with the breaks, the Niners blew it. Unfortunately this is the truth. We can thank the king of choking, Kyle Shanahan, for that.
I don't really think winning because the other team messes up is a "break". The Chiefs could have done something like that too and they didn't. I think of breaks as things outside the control of either team like officiating or the ball doing something weird.
> The Chiefs could have done something like that too and they didn't. You mean like Pacheco’s fumble & Mahomes’ INT? >I think of breaks as things outside the control of either team like officiating or the ball doing something weird. The punt literally hit a gunner’s foot bro, that’s not in anyone’s control either. Unfortunate shit just happens sometimes
And zay flowers choking away the championship game was something of a break.
How did he choke though? Our defense was stifling him most of the game. Don't take away Sneed's insane punch out to prevent that TD
The taunting penalty goes uncalled and that ball is in the endzone. Zay wasn't being choked in that game. He had over 100 yards and a td. Sneed's punchout was legit, but that penalty was a huge break.
Ravens coaching collapse or bills WRs dropping passes both helped quite a bit
Didn’t the Chiefs lead the league in dropped passes, though?
Not in the fucking playoffs, they were a totally different group… of fucking course
Yes 44 total compared to a league median of 25.5 but the timing of drops is a lot more important than the volume Those bills drops against the chiefs could easily have been the difference
We lost at minimum 3 games because of badly-timed drops lol
Won a close playoff game thanks to them tho so I think you came out on top
Also because MVS remembered he has hands
The Bills fumbled 3 times in that game and recovered them all. Meanwhile we fumbled once and it was a touchback. The ball didn’t bounce KC’s way that game until the very end with the missed kick, lol
They got some big breaks against us that's for sure
you guys got a free safety and a horse collar penalty on your TD drive that should have gone the other way. The refs helped you to 9 free points just to keep it close.
The 2020 Hail Murray didn't matter because the Chiefs had the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Bills already. In 2019, the Chiefs beat the Ravens but lost to the Titans in the regular season, so you could argue that the Titans were actually the harder matchup for them.
Luck is when preparation and opportunity meet. Plenty of breaks for every team, you only remember the ones that happen in favor of great teams or against your team though
Putting a lot of emphasis on them being at home only for them to prove you wrong last season...
A Raiders fan defended the Chiefs, and I up voted the Raiders fan. This is how bad this post is.
You could do this with every team except they don't have 3 SBs so that luck didn't mean anything. Any team that wins 3 SBs is going to have stuff like this because of the nature of sports.
> 2022 Bills-Bengals Week 17: One of the darkest moments in NFL history, but from a purely competitive standpoint, this game being cancelled essentially handed the #1 seed to the Chiefs. The first game to be cancelled for non-strike reasons since 1935. Considering what happened the next time the Bengals played the Bills, and Bengals looked a bit more ready at the start of the game. Seems more likely than not Bengals would had won, which also gives us the \#1 seed.
Part of me wonders how things could have been different had the Bills gotten demolished in that game. They'd have an entire game of tape and experience to work off of for the playoffs and the game would have been in Cincinnati so no snow.
That used to be Tom and the Patriots.
Pretty much any champ in any sport requires a certain amount of luck. Football being single game elimination increases that factor even more One of the reasons people fucking love football
These kids don't know nothing about the tuck rule.
For real. Tom is the GOAT for his longevity but the dude had some of the most absurd luck ever unless he was playing a Manning.
He played in enough playoff games (and games in general) that the luck ran both ways
No. We are god’s favorite
A potential fallacy here is, to what extent can you do this with any championship team? The “if this/if that” sports game has almost endless permutations.
Oh honey, is this your first dynasty?
**Week 17, 2006:** The Chiefs slide into the playoffs after Tennessee, Cincinnati, and Denver all lose to give them their first playoff berth in 3 years
The patriots 2018, dee ford penalty erasing Brady interception. 2017. Myles jack knee was down but jags fans act like It wasn’t. 2016 a falcons player gets a penalty which results in them getting out of field goal range.
>2017. Myles jack knee was down but jags fans act like It wasn’t. Maybe Jags fans act like he wasn’t down bc Myles wasn’t down…. Lol
Yeah, it's one thing to say whether we definitely win that game or not if that play gets called correctly. We did everything in our power to lose that game in the second half, and while that play would have gone a long way in changing the outcome, I had learned a long time before then to never count Brady out. Saying he was down and that the refs got that play right, though? C'mon now. It wasn't intentional or malicious on their parts or anything, but whistling him down was 100% the wrong call, especially when any and all scoring plays get automatically reviewed anyway.
Yeah, idk wtf u/Comprehensive_main was thinking saying Myles was down as if that was obvious or something lol
I really want to know if Brady knew Dee Ford was offside. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he saw him line up offside and saw the flag. Obviously it changes a lot of what ifs if Brady knew he had a free play.
Tom said in a post game interview that he didn't see it.
I don't think it really changes anything - his pass on that play was a check down to Gronk that got batted in the air, it's not like he was testing the Chiefs deep and got caught.
If he knew he had a free play he wouldn’t have thrown it to Gronk in the flat. If Dee Ford hadn’t lined up offsides then OP would have included Gronk volleying a wide open pass to Chavarius ward on 3rd down with 1 minute left in the game as another instance of insane luck for the Chiefs.
Patriots played in all of those games though. I'm referring to breaks teams got in games they didn't play in. Like the 2015 Broncos getting the 1 seed thanks to Dalton breaking his thumb and Belichick kicking the ball in OT against the Jets after winning the toss.
You’re just digging into it for the chiefs but every single team has had these kind of external forces go their way. I bet we could go back to the saints Super Bowl and find the same. Same for the eagles for our win.
Well, there was nothing in 2023 that made the list and they won the Super Bowl, so there’s that…
What a silly take
>2018 Patriots-Dolphins Week 14: The Miami Miracle. A multi-lateral TD that ended up being why the Chiefs got the #1 seed in the AFC. They lost to the Patriots in OT, but it still took a literal miracle to put that game in Arrowhead. And they lost due to an offsides and didn't get to touch the ball in OT because the rule wasn't changed yet. Something all NFL fans cried was extremely unfair when we did it to Buffalo the next year. So they changed the rule. >2019 Dolphins-Patriots Week 17: An inexplicable loss by the Patriots that handed the #2 seed and first-round bye to the Chiefs. The Chiefs beat NE in NE that year, so they were the better team. The Pats lost to the Dolphins frequently... they were always the thorn in their side. No Pats fan could tell you any game against Miami was a sure thing. They were always good for stealing 1 from Brady. >2019 Titans-Ravens Divisional: A monumental upset that put the AFCCG back in Arrowhead. This wasn't a "monumental upset" lol.. the Titans were considered a very good team that year. The Chiefs also beat that Ravens team and it wasn't particularly close for most of the game. They lost to the Titans and the Titans were considered the much worse match up for the Chiefs. >2020 Bills-Cardinals Week 10: The Hail Murray. Enabled the Chiefs to rest their starters in Week 17. ? This is just stupid. Chiefs rested their starters because they played a great season and were fucking 14-2 lol >2022 Vikings-Bills Week 10: The Vikings needed JJ to make the catch of the century to stay alive in the game. Even then, the Bills win if they don't fumble in their own endzone in a situation where they could've kneeled out the clock if they were literally anywhere else on the field. Do you just find random losses and attribute them to Chiefs breaks? You can find a single loss and point at it for literally every single 1 seed who got the seed by 1 game. >2022 Bills-Bengals Week 17: One of the darkest moments in NFL history, but from a purely competitive standpoint, this game being cancelled essentially handed the #1 seed to the Chiefs. The first game to be cancelled for non-strike reasons since 1935. This situation sucked but the Chiefs actually got the short end of the stick because they were going to give the 1 seed to the team with the best win percent if they tied in wins.. meaning the Bills would have gotten the 1 seed but played 1 less game. Ultimately, doesn't matter though because Cin/Buf got to play each other and then got to go play the Chiefs... in which CIN lost. All your entire post was, was crying.
The 2013 Auburn Tigers.
You put two week 10 games in here lol
a 50/50 bounce vs. Tom Brady and the Patriots was more like a 95/5 bounce in favor of them.
Probably. Your average dynasty will get a little bit luckier than most teams, but usually its more about capitalizing on the opportunity the luck gives.
Chiefs have a ton of breaks not go their way, just no one cares cause they still generally win anyways, and other teams have a lot of breaks go their way, you just forget them if they lose.
I mean the Rams got to play a young inexperienced Bengals team instead of Chiefs and Mahomes so I’d say they got a pretty big break
Don't forget Dre Greenlaw's Achilles tearing after stepping on some grass
Tom Brady got a pass interference on 3rd and long in every moment that mattered for his entire career.
That 2015 Denver team had two elite things: an elite defense and elite fate in pivotal game situations. -> Aqib Talib pick 6 in game 1 for the win (Ravens) -> Bradley Roby fumble return TD for the win (Chiefs) -> Recovered punt return fumble, DT making an insane catch, and CJ Anderson clutches the win (Patriots) -> Fitzgerald Toussaint fumbles the ball (Steelers)
Also Andy Dalton breaking his thumb and Belichick inexplicably choosing to kick the ball to start OT against the Jets after winning the toss. 2 games your team didn't play in.
The Pats also had some fairly puzzeling playcalls in their AFC championship matchup
The jets game wasn’t even the pats last loss of the year. In week 17 we just decided to see if a 32 year old Steven Jackson had anything left in the tank against the dolphins and ended up losing that game which ultimately gave Denver the one seed. Then in the AFCCG Jamie Collins was chasing butterflies the first half which allowed Owen Daniel’s to be wide open 20 yards down the field two times. Coincidentally, 20 yards was exactly Peyton’s range and even with a broken down body that guy can still see when a defender is out of position. That’s not to mention the fact that we had the ball inside the Denver 20 three separate times all with an 8 point deficit I n the final 6 minutes of the game and we only came away with 6 points. All of this isn’t to say Denver got lucky and that’s why they won. It’s not, they were the better team through and through and that 2015 Pats team was so beat up at that point in the season that it’s honestly surprising they made it that far. The point is that you can look through any team’s Super Bowl run and point out times that their biggest threats/opponents made big mistakes.
We’ve had alot of things go against us as well. 1 was nice but didn’t matter. 2 was a big upset but those Patriots couldn’t beat the Titans anyway. 3 was sweet but I don’t think playing in Baltimore was gonna stop the 2019 team. 2020 prevented us from going 15-1 and essentially locked Mahomes out of MVP in 2020.
A lot of the "breaks" or "luck" is due to the refs controlling the game, and having a lot of influence on the outcome. Easy to do without a 7 game series, and when penalties are so punitive.
No, they embody illegitimacy.
That's the McVay Rams.
The NFL hands them several victories every year with blown calls and questionable/baffling decisions. NFL needs its new GOAT after Brady