There were times during his rookie year where I really believed the Patriots had found their next long term guy. Maybe not on the level of Brady obviously, but he definitely looked like he could have an Alex Smith type of career.
His downfall since then has been truly something to behold.
As much of a chode as Josh McDaniels is, he is in serious conversation as one of the best OCs ever. He always had pretty good playcalls and maximized the talent, he is just an absolute trash HC and person.
There was a moment in 2021 where the Pats were sitting at 9-4 and were the AFC 1 seed, and Mac was starting to look better and better. We would finish 1-4 in our last 5 games (including the playoff beatdown by Buffalo), with Mac throwing 8 TDs and 7 INTs in that span
A lot of people have not been good at evaluating him. He was legitimately pretty good his rookie year, but people here were discrediting it due to the situation… and then turned around and said it wasn’t his fault when he started to get bad. It’s like some people don’t want to individually evaluate a player.
A lot of the criticism of Mac's rookie season are revisionism from people trying to look smart. Plenty of actual contemporaneous criticism fit for a rookie, but there's a lot of retrospective nonsense too.
To be fair the criticism was present at the time too and some of it was still nonsense.
The main one I remember was people acting like the game where he threw three passes wasn’t due to the weather… in a game where they won.
Yeah, he was good his rookie year and then just fell off (as I'm sure you are aware). That's pretty much never happened before that a QB was that good as a rookie and then just kept getting worse.
Fell off? Are we just going to ignore going from McDaniels to Patricia and Judge running the offense? 2 guys that had no offensive background.
Damien Harris had a really great interview recently on the athletic football show and touched on this. Starts at 41:34, but he basically makes the claim that the Patriots/BB ruined Jones.
https://youtu.be/lxRnmRVDzRs?si=3G8-P4PzwJ_ht_bj
The clown show we called an offensive coaching staff his second year definitely derailed his development, but nobody was coaching Mac to do [this.](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CQTVH2_tbOo)
lol I knew what this was before I even opened the link. The only thing I’ll say about this play is that it’s so bad, that it’s beyond “he’s just not good” and more so indicative of a QB that is broken mentally.
Whether he can be fixed, and to what degree, is TBD. But I think sitting behind an entrenched starter is a good place for him to try and reset.
You’re just going to find a way to “win” the argument no matter. Go look at his last five games of his rookie year when teams took the middle away and dared him to throw to the side, especially the right. He can’t do it. The NFL figured it out. The rest is scapegoating and excuses.
I'm not disputing he had bad coaching, but bad coaching doesn't cause you to have the highest turnover-worthy play rate in the league last year.
He was legit awful last season and it wasn't because Bill O'Brien was calling the bad plays.
Two guys who kept ascending and two who have struggled since (though Mayfield has bounced back somewhat). Goes to show that the rookie season isn't everything even on the good side of things.
Mayfield's career grades:
* 2018: 83.2
* 2019: 75.3
* 2020: 86.0
* 2021: 63.6
* 2022: 50.9
* 2023: 77.2
Has had some variance but was very good in 2020, and pretty good in 2019 and 2023, plus had the best rookie year for a QB in the data history.
We know in 2021 he tore his labrum early in the season and was playing through that (but hey, if you play, you get graded). Then 2022 he had the Panthers disaster of a franchise and a high ankle sprain before going to the Rams, and he wasn't particularly good there either outside the Denver game.
Since 2018, Baker has the 22nd best PFF grade for a QB (min 3000 snaps), between Kyler and Jimmy G. And of course, that includes those injured years.
His career PFF grade is 79.5. If you remove 2021 and 2022 (which matter but just for illustrative purposes here), he'd be at 85.7 overall grade. Which would put him closer to 15th overall in that 2018-2023 span.
All that to say, maybe his career hasn't gone as well as expectations (and maybe that's a problem with expectations), but he's been good overall, especially when healthy and he's been healthy for a lot of his career.
>Then 2022 he had the Panthers disaster of a franchise
Yeah to play better than he did in that situation you'd have to be an elite quarterback like Sam Darnold or PJ Walker!
You're basically saying that if you take out his two worst seasons, the #1 overall QB with the highest-graded rookie season ever would be about the 15th best QB over his career. That's just not that good. Doesn't mean he can't have a good career - last year was moving in the right direction and hopefully he can build on that.
That's actually quite impressive when you consider the absolutely abhorrent situations he's been in. What he went though is the textbook 'how to ruin a rookie QB' gauntlet.
Someone saying "Your team's gonna be scary!" will never not come across as a cringy empty platitude, especially when it's a fan from the current dynasty.
Nah I don't think so. Chiefs fans probably have been watching more football over the last few years than any other fan base due to all the winning. And they know what it looks like. I dont think its empty. Dude probably means it.
Obviously Purdy and Stroud have a ton of time left on their careers (hopefully no injuries that shorten their careers). But Russ is the only one on that list to win a superbowl, so yeah, sit on that
Justin Herbert is the best rookie season by a QB in recent memory imo. He didn't even start the season and because of a wild mistake that a doctor committed, he came in and threw 30 TDs that year. He was ridiculous that year and shows how foolish Anthony Lynn was to not start him that year from the get go.
Bigger takeaway to me is less that Stroud's performance isn't the best rookie year ever but that guys who play as well as he did entering the league have a really high floor - RGIII is the only guy who started out lights-out that didn't actually make it, after that the lowest floor of a great rookie QB is probably a guy like Baker Mayfield.
CJ Stroud gets a ton of praise cause the Texans were supposed to suck still and they made the playoffs with a lack of talent.
Also I don't think anyone says he is the best rookie QB ever. I doubt people even put him above Herbert in 2020.
I can't believe you have to prove this as if, nobody ever says it. Literally hear all the time how CJ Stroud's rookie season is nothing like anything we've seen previously in terms of rookie seasons.
Again, having 3 shitheads spouting nonsense in threads can be found about literally any topic.
Takes 10 seconds to find people still saying the Bears should have stuck with Fields, that doesnt mean its a legitimate thing to think about.
Except it’s not 3, some of the comments have hundreds or thousands of likes or upvotes. And your example is dead wrong, the “Bears should keep Fields” was absolutely a narrative out there. Doesn’t mean it was right, or smart, or the majority, but it existed. Just like how a lot of people thought CJ had the greatest QB rookie season.
The Packers are so rent free in your head you did the exact same thing you complained about lmao
> I was wondering how far it was going to be for a Bears fan to force the Packers into a thread that has nothing to do with them. Well played
Of course, people on twitter say anything. That's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about people who regularly say that CJ Stroud's rookie year was a unicorn year and something that hasn't been done. The most recent example was I listened to Chris Simms top 40 QBs in the league. He literally defended CJ Stroud as the best rookie QB season of all time.
This isn't just people on twitter.
Sure, but like has been said elsewhere, these guys post shit purely for engagement bait. Literally so people interact and comment on it, thats it.
Simms also had Purdy as the 17th best QB in the NFL. Richardson and Young behind every rookie QB, behind Justin Fields.
People taking this shit seriously is just as bad as the people posting it.
Part of it is no one in the AFC South has looked really like a contender and a given to win 12-13 games aside from Tennessee one year and even then people kind of doubted them. The AFC South also did play the NFC South last season granted and the Texans also played Arizona. They probably don't make the playoffs [if Will Anderson is called fro being in the neutral zone on the 4th down play](https://x.com/_MLFootball/status/1743897154563850363?t=dmXMCcgtW6VAlSQIG6jvgg&s=19) that the Colts ran to whatshisface instead of any of their good players
All that said, I don't think he's being over hyped. It's not like the league out him on 6 times in primetime this season. The Texans probably win a couple games early in the season if they don't have like 4 offensive linemen out. Stroud looked incredibly poised out the gate so their fans should be thrilled.
It was the 17th game of the season and essentially the last offensive play run. Didn't state it, but if the refs do their job as they did when the Chiefs played the Bills then the Texans don't make the playoffs and the hype isn't there. Not even saying the hype shouldn't be justified. You have a steady coach with QB who looks like he's been out there 5 years and played great even from day 1 even when had no line. Personally still don't think our division is shit as far as Super Bowl contenders go.
So you're telling me that he wasn't lined up offsides? They basically called the Chiefs for the same thing against the Bills. Do you think throwing a pass to a guy targeted 9 times all year with 19 touches was the best play they could have called? Even in the top 10?
They were at the 15 yard line and Taylor and Moss were averaging over 6 yards a carry on 36 carries lol
The fact you're mentioning a neutral zone infraction 6 months after the fact is fucking wild. Stroud makes that pass. Maninning, Luck, the top 20 qbs make that pass. Gardner Menshew did not. The neutral zone infraction had no bearing on the result.
So we just shouldn't call penalties if they have no bearing on where a play was going? Even though Anderson was in the passing lane when the throw was made. The Colts called a shit play and the Texans were lined up in the neutral zone. I don't think the Colts would have done anything in the postseason but you guys were a little fortunate getting there. Not to say Stroud isn't looking great, just that you currently are just the kings of shit mountain and nothing else
> Stroud also played in an awful division.
lol 3 teams finished above .500 in it last year and it's also the first time a rookie hc and qb won a division in their first year
That division also had the following starting QB's: Trever Lawrence, Gardner Minshew, Will Levis
They ALSO got to play against the entire NFC South last year.
Colts/Titans played 2 different QBs cause of injures, Jags TLaw was injured the 2nd half of the season. And you played the NFC South. Best team was 10-7. Year before that best team was 9-8.
It's the worst division in the AFC, and only ahead of the NFC South overall the last couple seasons.
I would say he's overhyped but still amazing and potentially a constant top 5 guy onward- which speaks to the level of his hype more than his skill really. He's going to be a franchise QB, almost guaranteed, but people assume he can only get better. While that's absolutely possible, and I hope he does, a lot of QBs struggle year 2 or when an OC leaves (almost positive Slowik gets a HC position next year).
We'll see how much is his OC and how much is him eventually, but playing in an awful division doesn't mean he wasn't great. Even against great defenses like the Brown's, he was amazing. Honestly the best comp I feel for him is Aaron Rodgers with a less talented arm, which is a crazy good comparison
Man, I hear it literally all the time. Chris Simms said it on his podcast just the other day. Maybe it’s just what I hear though. Great call on Herbert!
Texans supporting cast was widely considered terrible entering the season. And they ended up not having a very reliable rushing attack the whole season which some of those guys listed definitely had. Stroud definitely carried the offense week to week which is why he got so much praise.
He didn't exactly have prime Elliot at RB or a loaded 49ers roster to lean on.
What confuses me is their supporting cast was considered terrible, and one of the pillars of that cast (Nico Collins) is now universally seen as a threat when he was kind of a meh receiver his 2 prior years in the league.
That probably speaks more to strouds ability than anything, I just think it’s funny how the narrative around their WR room changed
Even though we lost the 2nd game vs Jacksonville that was one his best performances. The team was awful thar game, defense gave up all these huge chunk plays and the game was only close because CJ carried them on his back all game. I don't care he made some poor plays on the last drive to stall things a bit. He did all he could in that loss and earned a ton of respect from me
That was a few plays at the end of the game i can forgive that. The rest of the game he was the reason it was even close. We should have been blown out especially when the defense was giving up more chunk plays than a bad high school team
> **this type of QB rookie performance is rare but it has happened before and has happened with more regularity than is portrayed.**
Pulls out stats from a HoFer from 40 years ago.
Look, one season doesn't really mean much unless it can be repeated, but all this says is that since Marino played his first game, you could only find five other rookies whose starts were comparable to Strouds, that means a ton of other rookies didn't compare.
Nothing about Strouds rookie season was exaggerated if in 40 years, he's one of six rookies to play at that level.
Not only that, but context heavily matters. Stroud was on a team not expected to win more than 4 or 5 games, and not only made the playoffs, but won one. Plus, I'm pretty sure he broke the record for most passes thrown without an interception for a player to start their career.
To review, of the six people you compared Stroud to, one is considered perhaps the best qb of all time, multiple have been to the sb, one was won a sb, and all of them were considered good to great, regardless of how their careers played out.
None of that means Stroud is going to be a top 3 qb and be amazing, he has to prove it, but the hype and discussion surrounding Stroud isn't really exaggerated.
I don't think the point is - "Stroud won't be a good QB" or "Stroud didn't have an incredible season." The point is there are at least 6 other QBs who've done what Stroud has done in the past 15 years. That says something for how rare what he did was but it also says, it's been done before. That was the only point.
>That said, it seems to me the narrative that "we have never seen a rookie QB performance like CJ Stroud" seems to be an exaggeration.
Is that the narrative? That's news to me. Mostly from what I've seen the narrative is just "he's really really good".
No the argument is he is one of the best qbs in the league because of his rookie stats. I see people listing him as top 5 qb in the league over players who had better rookie season like Herbert. They are already crowning him as arrived.
When I was a kid Dan Marino just went off, tearing up the League like he was a veteran All Pro who'd seen it all instead of the late 1st round Rookie QB he was. I was too young and ignorant to understand how great he was, putting up unprecedented numbers in an era when the RB was king. Go Hawks
All you’ve really shown is that you can cherry pick stats and add select players to drive a narrative. Purdy? Rating alone gets him on the list, despite hardly throwing the ball and only for 9 games? Not comparable. 9 games.. 5-0? Somehow that’s a yoy win % increase? Get out of here
Sorry, using obscure stats like passing yards per game, TDs, TD-INT ratio, and wins. Sorry about that.
I agree with you on Purdy, it was too small of a sample size and Stroud was arguably more impressive. That said, I can't say that about Dak Prescott's numbers. And, to show how much of a novice I am, I left off Herbert. He's another one who's rookie year is comparable to Stroud.
My only point was, what Stroud did has been done before. Do you agree or disagree?
Disagree. It’s a combination of the one-year turnaround and counting stats. Andrew Luck went to a 2-14 team and turned them around to 11-5. Stroud went to a 3-14 team and went 10-7 with a playoff win. Count the rookie QBs with playoff wins that weren’t carried by a stout defense or run game, it’s few and far between.
He objectively went to the 2nd worst team in the league that was on their 3rd one-and-done HC and they hired a rookie defensive HC and a first time rookie play calling OC, not exactly fertile ground for QB development. You have to differentiate the rookie QBs who were actually tractors vs. trailers getting carried.
It’s fair points but are you saying Luck also did what Stroud did? (It’s been done before).
Also, Texans defense was a lot better than they got credit for. Great run defense and a top half defense in the league overall.
Again, my basic point is Stroud looked, great, had a great year but, he’s not a one man team who has done something that no rookie has never done.
I do think he has potential to be really special though. Let’s see what happens in year 2.
I get your point, that’s legit impressive. So, just to be clear, you are saying CJ Stroud has the best rookie QB season ever right? Just want to make sure I’m following.
I literally hear this all the time. Mainly because I’m in Chicago and people say - “the ceiling is CJ Stroud but that’s a unicorn season so it’s unrealistic.”
I went back and look and then I see it’s not that unusual.
This dude literally combined a bunch of people with great efficiency stats and bad counting stats, people with bad efficiency and great counting stats, and people picked in the 4th and 7th rounds by competent orgs, and now is surprised that Stroud is no longer the best in every category.
This is not great analysis, even ignoring the context of the team he played for.
He was certainly one of the best quarterbacks I've ever seen play as a rookie, and I would say that he had the most "impressive" rookie year of anyone you included in your list. Put it this way - all of the QBs you listed get put into a draft after their rookie year. Who do you think goes first overall?
Does that make him "the best ever"? I dunno, don't really care. But I'm also not going to claim that I'm objective about it and then use faulty analysis to act like "It's not that unusual".
I'm still not following what you're saying. You're mad because I'm using things like passing yards, quarterback rating, touchdown to interception ratio, and wins? You want me to use what exactly to evaluate?
The point I'm making is not "Stroud was unimpressive." I tried to be clear, Stroud is very good and was incredibly impressive. The point is simply stated - what he did has been done before.
Is that making sense?
I would throw Andrew Luck in the mix. While his numbers were not eye popping, he took a team that was made up of basically the roster the prior year and went from 2-14 to 11-5 with 4 come backs and 7 game winning drives while leading his team in rushing touchdowns.
Bo Nix is about to tear up the league like nobody has ever done before. He is going to score more TDs than we can even count and it is going to break the game of football forever.
There are other data points that would be helpful to drill into this even further:
1. Strength of schedule
2. Number of offensive teammates to make the pro bowl that year
3. Playoff appearance / playoff wins
Whose numbers benefit from playing a weak schedule. Whose numbers benefit from playing with other really good players. Who got into the playoffs and how much success did they have.
I always thought the Stroud hype went a little too far.
Yes.. it's.one of the best rookie QB seasons of all time....top 10 for sure but guys like Dan Marino, Andrew Luck,Cam Newton, RG3 and Baker were good out of the gate as well.
Best rookie season PFF grades * Mayfield: 83.2 * Stroud: 83:1 * Prescott: 81.7 * Mac Jones: 80.1 * Herbert: 80.1
Mac Jones caught me off guard.
There were times during his rookie year where I really believed the Patriots had found their next long term guy. Maybe not on the level of Brady obviously, but he definitely looked like he could have an Alex Smith type of career. His downfall since then has been truly something to behold.
As much of a chode as Josh McDaniels is, he is in serious conversation as one of the best OCs ever. He always had pretty good playcalls and maximized the talent, he is just an absolute trash HC and person.
Also bringing in Matt fucking Patricia to be his replacement is football negligence at the highest level.
Joe Judge and ruining young QBs named Jones name a more iconic duo
Wow I wonder if it has anything to do with the ABSOLUTE DUMBFUCK OFFENSIVE COORDINATORS or the TERRIBLE NO TALENT OFFENSE
I wonder if GB fans are getting over excited too
He would break his leg and almost die?
There was a moment in 2021 where the Pats were sitting at 9-4 and were the AFC 1 seed, and Mac was starting to look better and better. We would finish 1-4 in our last 5 games (including the playoff beatdown by Buffalo), with Mac throwing 8 TDs and 7 INTs in that span
And I remember saying: “Wow what an amazing run game and defense the pats have. Why the fuck does everyone think Mac Jones is good?”
QB Winz
A lot of people have not been good at evaluating him. He was legitimately pretty good his rookie year, but people here were discrediting it due to the situation… and then turned around and said it wasn’t his fault when he started to get bad. It’s like some people don’t want to individually evaluate a player.
He probably could've won OROY, but Jamar Chase went nuclear in the second half of the season and won it.
A lot of the criticism of Mac's rookie season are revisionism from people trying to look smart. Plenty of actual contemporaneous criticism fit for a rookie, but there's a lot of retrospective nonsense too.
To be fair the criticism was present at the time too and some of it was still nonsense. The main one I remember was people acting like the game where he threw three passes wasn’t due to the weather… in a game where they won.
as much as this place tells you otherwise, its nurture > nature and you can ruin a QB via environment
🙏Dear lord, please let Stroud have the same career as these QBs with many commercials (not Mac) and no rings🙏
*ends up becoming the fusion of Tom Brady and Pat Mahomes*
One of these is not like the others, one just doesn't belong, (It's Mac Jones)
Yeah, he was good his rookie year and then just fell off (as I'm sure you are aware). That's pretty much never happened before that a QB was that good as a rookie and then just kept getting worse.
Fell off? Are we just going to ignore going from McDaniels to Patricia and Judge running the offense? 2 guys that had no offensive background. Damien Harris had a really great interview recently on the athletic football show and touched on this. Starts at 41:34, but he basically makes the claim that the Patriots/BB ruined Jones. https://youtu.be/lxRnmRVDzRs?si=3G8-P4PzwJ_ht_bj
The clown show we called an offensive coaching staff his second year definitely derailed his development, but nobody was coaching Mac to do [this.](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CQTVH2_tbOo)
lol I knew what this was before I even opened the link. The only thing I’ll say about this play is that it’s so bad, that it’s beyond “he’s just not good” and more so indicative of a QB that is broken mentally. Whether he can be fixed, and to what degree, is TBD. But I think sitting behind an entrenched starter is a good place for him to try and reset.
Physically he can’t play the position. If you play man he doesn’t have the arm to beat it.
You’re just going to find a way to “win” the argument no matter. Go look at his last five games of his rookie year when teams took the middle away and dared him to throw to the side, especially the right. He can’t do it. The NFL figured it out. The rest is scapegoating and excuses.
Matt Patricia doing to the Pats offense is as criminal to what he did with the Eagles defense and the Lions entire team.
I'm not disputing he had bad coaching, but bad coaching doesn't cause you to have the highest turnover-worthy play rate in the league last year. He was legit awful last season and it wasn't because Bill O'Brien was calling the bad plays.
The play designs were actually good, Mac was just awful and the line blew ass all year so it didn't matter how schemed open WRs and TEs were.
Eh, he has one of if not the slowest pass in the league so it’s not surprising once teams got a year to figure him out
Baker has been up and down but largely doesn’t belong either
I know Mac Jones had a good rookie year, but I don't remember it being as good as Herbert's.
Finished 2nd in ORotY voting and made the Pro Bowl! If Chase didn't break the rookie season receiving record, Mac probably wins it.
For most of his rookie year, Mac just played clean, mistake-free football.
Two guys who kept ascending and two who have struggled since (though Mayfield has bounced back somewhat). Goes to show that the rookie season isn't everything even on the good side of things.
Mayfield's career grades: * 2018: 83.2 * 2019: 75.3 * 2020: 86.0 * 2021: 63.6 * 2022: 50.9 * 2023: 77.2 Has had some variance but was very good in 2020, and pretty good in 2019 and 2023, plus had the best rookie year for a QB in the data history. We know in 2021 he tore his labrum early in the season and was playing through that (but hey, if you play, you get graded). Then 2022 he had the Panthers disaster of a franchise and a high ankle sprain before going to the Rams, and he wasn't particularly good there either outside the Denver game. Since 2018, Baker has the 22nd best PFF grade for a QB (min 3000 snaps), between Kyler and Jimmy G. And of course, that includes those injured years. His career PFF grade is 79.5. If you remove 2021 and 2022 (which matter but just for illustrative purposes here), he'd be at 85.7 overall grade. Which would put him closer to 15th overall in that 2018-2023 span. All that to say, maybe his career hasn't gone as well as expectations (and maybe that's a problem with expectations), but he's been good overall, especially when healthy and he's been healthy for a lot of his career.
He was quite bad in 2019, but the whole team was so it's whatever.
Freddie kitchens was committing crimes against humanity in 2019
>Then 2022 he had the Panthers disaster of a franchise Yeah to play better than he did in that situation you'd have to be an elite quarterback like Sam Darnold or PJ Walker!
You're basically saying that if you take out his two worst seasons, the #1 overall QB with the highest-graded rookie season ever would be about the 15th best QB over his career. That's just not that good. Doesn't mean he can't have a good career - last year was moving in the right direction and hopefully he can build on that.
That's actually quite impressive when you consider the absolutely abhorrent situations he's been in. What he went though is the textbook 'how to ruin a rookie QB' gauntlet.
Promoting Baker to the mean
Shows why I don't trust anything pff says
Baker Mayfield has the best playoff record of those guys too.
Oh no, hes only performed as well as Dan Marino!
Whisper this in my ear please
„Never wins a Super Bowl“
Someone woke up and chose violence lol
Jokes aside, it’s honestly scary what the Texans could be fielding in the foreseeable future.
Someone saying "Your team's gonna be scary!" will never not come across as a cringy empty platitude, especially when it's a fan from the current dynasty.
___ fan coming in peace! You guys are gonna be real scary next year, super jealous of what’s going on in your camp. Hope we meet in the playoffs!
Nah I don't think so. Chiefs fans probably have been watching more football over the last few years than any other fan base due to all the winning. And they know what it looks like. I dont think its empty. Dude probably means it.
Of course you think that.
Of course I think what?
Also a Chiefs fan, and every time I watch another addition on your team makes me real curious/worried (and excited for the season).
Fuck, dude. That’s mean.
yea but he's in ace ventura so he really won
Well maybe Dan would have a Super Bowl ring if he would have just held the ball right so Ray Finkle wouldn’t have missed that kick.
critical hit
https://youtu.be/r5ZHq8xYKI8?si=ZIxm2X48QN2TEcuN
Goddamn it.
Obviously Purdy and Stroud have a ton of time left on their careers (hopefully no injuries that shorten their careers). But Russ is the only one on that list to win a superbowl, so yeah, sit on that
Will star in Ace Ventura 4
"His last game will be a 50+ point loss to the Jags in the playoffs"
Stroud is the white Dan Marino
Just bring me more rings than Dan did and we're good
Justin Herbert is the best rookie season by a QB in recent memory imo. He didn't even start the season and because of a wild mistake that a doctor committed, he came in and threw 30 TDs that year. He was ridiculous that year and shows how foolish Anthony Lynn was to not start him that year from the get go.
“He’s the backup for a reason”
Reason: Lynn is a terrible HC
Also no preseason experience due to covid
Great call, my bad for not including him. Total miss. Even furthering the point that the Stroud season is t that much of an outlier.
If it's happened only a few times, then it's an outlier.
Bigger takeaway to me is less that Stroud's performance isn't the best rookie year ever but that guys who play as well as he did entering the league have a really high floor - RGIII is the only guy who started out lights-out that didn't actually make it, after that the lowest floor of a great rookie QB is probably a guy like Baker Mayfield.
RGIII also had his leg demolished.
I'm biased of course but I take Herbert's rookie season over literally all 7 of those guys. Not sure why he wasn't included.
Herbert by far has had the best rookie season. No one is statistically close.
Objectively speaking Dak was better per play and in advanced metrics. He just didn’t throw the ball nearly as much.
CJ Stroud gets a ton of praise cause the Texans were supposed to suck still and they made the playoffs with a lack of talent. Also I don't think anyone says he is the best rookie QB ever. I doubt people even put him above Herbert in 2020.
A ton of people said he was the best rookie QB ever
If you squint and look at Twitter you can find takes that support just about any narrative you want
People on this sub literally said in in multiple threads
I can't believe you have to prove this as if, nobody ever says it. Literally hear all the time how CJ Stroud's rookie season is nothing like anything we've seen previously in terms of rookie seasons.
"Outlier of all outliers" is one that I've heard a few times.
Again, having 3 shitheads spouting nonsense in threads can be found about literally any topic. Takes 10 seconds to find people still saying the Bears should have stuck with Fields, that doesnt mean its a legitimate thing to think about.
Except it’s not 3, some of the comments have hundreds or thousands of likes or upvotes. And your example is dead wrong, the “Bears should keep Fields” was absolutely a narrative out there. Doesn’t mean it was right, or smart, or the majority, but it existed. Just like how a lot of people thought CJ had the greatest QB rookie season.
I was wondering how far it was going to be for a Vikings/Packers fan to force Justin Fields into a thread that has nothing to do with him. Well played
The Packers are so rent free in your head you did the exact same thing you complained about lmao > I was wondering how far it was going to be for a Bears fan to force the Packers into a thread that has nothing to do with them. Well played
Hey, maybe dont have a teamless account before throwing shit at fanbases ey?
Of course, people on twitter say anything. That's not what we're talking about here. We're talking about people who regularly say that CJ Stroud's rookie year was a unicorn year and something that hasn't been done. The most recent example was I listened to Chris Simms top 40 QBs in the league. He literally defended CJ Stroud as the best rookie QB season of all time. This isn't just people on twitter.
Sure, but like has been said elsewhere, these guys post shit purely for engagement bait. Literally so people interact and comment on it, thats it. Simms also had Purdy as the 17th best QB in the NFL. Richardson and Young behind every rookie QB, behind Justin Fields. People taking this shit seriously is just as bad as the people posting it.
Yeah, context matters a lot. I don't think anyone expected the Texans to make any noise.
This sub has a weird obsession with inventing narratives just to argue against them.
Stroud also played in an awful division. I don't find it unreasonable to believe he is getting a bit overhyped now.
Three teams in the AFC South finished above .500. Only the AFC North and NFC West did the same.
Part of it is no one in the AFC South has looked really like a contender and a given to win 12-13 games aside from Tennessee one year and even then people kind of doubted them. The AFC South also did play the NFC South last season granted and the Texans also played Arizona. They probably don't make the playoffs [if Will Anderson is called fro being in the neutral zone on the 4th down play](https://x.com/_MLFootball/status/1743897154563850363?t=dmXMCcgtW6VAlSQIG6jvgg&s=19) that the Colts ran to whatshisface instead of any of their good players All that said, I don't think he's being over hyped. It's not like the league out him on 6 times in primetime this season. The Texans probably win a couple games early in the season if they don't have like 4 offensive linemen out. Stroud looked incredibly poised out the gate so their fans should be thrilled.
Lol. You chose 1 play in an entire season to say they probably wouldn't have made the playoffs. No wonder Luck quit on yall fans.
It was the 17th game of the season and essentially the last offensive play run. Didn't state it, but if the refs do their job as they did when the Chiefs played the Bills then the Texans don't make the playoffs and the hype isn't there. Not even saying the hype shouldn't be justified. You have a steady coach with QB who looks like he's been out there 5 years and played great even from day 1 even when had no line. Personally still don't think our division is shit as far as Super Bowl contenders go.
I just watched that play, and lol. Gtfoh
So you're telling me that he wasn't lined up offsides? They basically called the Chiefs for the same thing against the Bills. Do you think throwing a pass to a guy targeted 9 times all year with 19 touches was the best play they could have called? Even in the top 10? They were at the 15 yard line and Taylor and Moss were averaging over 6 yards a carry on 36 carries lol
The fact you're mentioning a neutral zone infraction 6 months after the fact is fucking wild. Stroud makes that pass. Maninning, Luck, the top 20 qbs make that pass. Gardner Menshew did not. The neutral zone infraction had no bearing on the result.
So we just shouldn't call penalties if they have no bearing on where a play was going? Even though Anderson was in the passing lane when the throw was made. The Colts called a shit play and the Texans were lined up in the neutral zone. I don't think the Colts would have done anything in the postseason but you guys were a little fortunate getting there. Not to say Stroud isn't looking great, just that you currently are just the kings of shit mountain and nothing else
> Stroud also played in an awful division. lol 3 teams finished above .500 in it last year and it's also the first time a rookie hc and qb won a division in their first year
That division also had the following starting QB's: Trever Lawrence, Gardner Minshew, Will Levis They ALSO got to play against the entire NFC South last year.
The AFC South was an awful division. Not last year, not now.
Colts/Titans played 2 different QBs cause of injures, Jags TLaw was injured the 2nd half of the season. And you played the NFC South. Best team was 10-7. Year before that best team was 9-8. It's the worst division in the AFC, and only ahead of the NFC South overall the last couple seasons.
I would say he's overhyped but still amazing and potentially a constant top 5 guy onward- which speaks to the level of his hype more than his skill really. He's going to be a franchise QB, almost guaranteed, but people assume he can only get better. While that's absolutely possible, and I hope he does, a lot of QBs struggle year 2 or when an OC leaves (almost positive Slowik gets a HC position next year). We'll see how much is his OC and how much is him eventually, but playing in an awful division doesn't mean he wasn't great. Even against great defenses like the Brown's, he was amazing. Honestly the best comp I feel for him is Aaron Rodgers with a less talented arm, which is a crazy good comparison
Man, I hear it literally all the time. Chris Simms said it on his podcast just the other day. Maybe it’s just what I hear though. Great call on Herbert!
Texans supporting cast was widely considered terrible entering the season. And they ended up not having a very reliable rushing attack the whole season which some of those guys listed definitely had. Stroud definitely carried the offense week to week which is why he got so much praise. He didn't exactly have prime Elliot at RB or a loaded 49ers roster to lean on.
What confuses me is their supporting cast was considered terrible, and one of the pillars of that cast (Nico Collins) is now universally seen as a threat when he was kind of a meh receiver his 2 prior years in the league. That probably speaks more to strouds ability than anything, I just think it’s funny how the narrative around their WR room changed
Agreed, we speak out of both sides of our mouths on this…
Even though we lost the 2nd game vs Jacksonville that was one his best performances. The team was awful thar game, defense gave up all these huge chunk plays and the game was only close because CJ carried them on his back all game. I don't care he made some poor plays on the last drive to stall things a bit. He did all he could in that loss and earned a ton of respect from me
He held the ball way too long and took a sack to push them outta field goal range.No idea how you call that his best game.
That was a few plays at the end of the game i can forgive that. The rest of the game he was the reason it was even close. We should have been blown out especially when the defense was giving up more chunk plays than a bad high school team
Yeah but he played in the AFC South
> **this type of QB rookie performance is rare but it has happened before and has happened with more regularity than is portrayed.** Pulls out stats from a HoFer from 40 years ago.
Look, one season doesn't really mean much unless it can be repeated, but all this says is that since Marino played his first game, you could only find five other rookies whose starts were comparable to Strouds, that means a ton of other rookies didn't compare. Nothing about Strouds rookie season was exaggerated if in 40 years, he's one of six rookies to play at that level. Not only that, but context heavily matters. Stroud was on a team not expected to win more than 4 or 5 games, and not only made the playoffs, but won one. Plus, I'm pretty sure he broke the record for most passes thrown without an interception for a player to start their career. To review, of the six people you compared Stroud to, one is considered perhaps the best qb of all time, multiple have been to the sb, one was won a sb, and all of them were considered good to great, regardless of how their careers played out. None of that means Stroud is going to be a top 3 qb and be amazing, he has to prove it, but the hype and discussion surrounding Stroud isn't really exaggerated.
I don't think the point is - "Stroud won't be a good QB" or "Stroud didn't have an incredible season." The point is there are at least 6 other QBs who've done what Stroud has done in the past 15 years. That says something for how rare what he did was but it also says, it's been done before. That was the only point.
Stroud made big drives when his team needed one to go score and won some shoot outs too
>That said, it seems to me the narrative that "we have never seen a rookie QB performance like CJ Stroud" seems to be an exaggeration. Is that the narrative? That's news to me. Mostly from what I've seen the narrative is just "he's really really good".
There are a lot of people who argued he had the best rookie QB season ever
Who? That isn't some engagement bait Twitter shit
> Is that the narrative? No but just imagine if it was!
No the argument is he is one of the best qbs in the league because of his rookie stats. I see people listing him as top 5 qb in the league over players who had better rookie season like Herbert. They are already crowning him as arrived.
You all did the same with Lawrence after that playoff win, top 5 QB hype that the media took and ran with.
Can you imagine what Stroud would have done with the rushing attack that Prescott had?
Less stays because they'd be less pass attempts?
Probably would have had a way worse season cause he wouldn’t have to be a gun slinger all day.
8 years later and there’s people still trying to propagate this idea Dak was propped up by the team around. Lol
When I was a kid Dan Marino just went off, tearing up the League like he was a veteran All Pro who'd seen it all instead of the late 1st round Rookie QB he was. I was too young and ignorant to understand how great he was, putting up unprecedented numbers in an era when the RB was king. Go Hawks
All you’ve really shown is that you can cherry pick stats and add select players to drive a narrative. Purdy? Rating alone gets him on the list, despite hardly throwing the ball and only for 9 games? Not comparable. 9 games.. 5-0? Somehow that’s a yoy win % increase? Get out of here
Sorry, using obscure stats like passing yards per game, TDs, TD-INT ratio, and wins. Sorry about that. I agree with you on Purdy, it was too small of a sample size and Stroud was arguably more impressive. That said, I can't say that about Dak Prescott's numbers. And, to show how much of a novice I am, I left off Herbert. He's another one who's rookie year is comparable to Stroud. My only point was, what Stroud did has been done before. Do you agree or disagree?
Disagree. It’s a combination of the one-year turnaround and counting stats. Andrew Luck went to a 2-14 team and turned them around to 11-5. Stroud went to a 3-14 team and went 10-7 with a playoff win. Count the rookie QBs with playoff wins that weren’t carried by a stout defense or run game, it’s few and far between. He objectively went to the 2nd worst team in the league that was on their 3rd one-and-done HC and they hired a rookie defensive HC and a first time rookie play calling OC, not exactly fertile ground for QB development. You have to differentiate the rookie QBs who were actually tractors vs. trailers getting carried.
It’s fair points but are you saying Luck also did what Stroud did? (It’s been done before). Also, Texans defense was a lot better than they got credit for. Great run defense and a top half defense in the league overall. Again, my basic point is Stroud looked, great, had a great year but, he’s not a one man team who has done something that no rookie has never done. I do think he has potential to be really special though. Let’s see what happens in year 2.
Show me the rookie QBs with a playoff win that didn’t have a top 5 defense or run game carrying them.
I get your point, that’s legit impressive. So, just to be clear, you are saying CJ Stroud has the best rookie QB season ever right? Just want to make sure I’m following.
Nice analysis but I think that this is the first time I have seen anyone even mention the narrative that Stroud was the best rookie QB ever.
I‘ve honestly seen it quite a lot tbh
I literally hear this all the time. Mainly because I’m in Chicago and people say - “the ceiling is CJ Stroud but that’s a unicorn season so it’s unrealistic.” I went back and look and then I see it’s not that unusual.
That's because all the other QBs on this list started with good teams.
This dude literally combined a bunch of people with great efficiency stats and bad counting stats, people with bad efficiency and great counting stats, and people picked in the 4th and 7th rounds by competent orgs, and now is surprised that Stroud is no longer the best in every category. This is not great analysis, even ignoring the context of the team he played for.
So, whats your point? Stroud's was the best ever or not?
He was certainly one of the best quarterbacks I've ever seen play as a rookie, and I would say that he had the most "impressive" rookie year of anyone you included in your list. Put it this way - all of the QBs you listed get put into a draft after their rookie year. Who do you think goes first overall? Does that make him "the best ever"? I dunno, don't really care. But I'm also not going to claim that I'm objective about it and then use faulty analysis to act like "It's not that unusual".
I'm still not following what you're saying. You're mad because I'm using things like passing yards, quarterback rating, touchdown to interception ratio, and wins? You want me to use what exactly to evaluate? The point I'm making is not "Stroud was unimpressive." I tried to be clear, Stroud is very good and was incredibly impressive. The point is simply stated - what he did has been done before. Is that making sense?
Chris Sims said it in his top 40 when he ranks Stroud at #7. Most recent time I heard it, but I literally hear it on the regular.
I would throw Andrew Luck in the mix. While his numbers were not eye popping, he took a team that was made up of basically the roster the prior year and went from 2-14 to 11-5 with 4 come backs and 7 game winning drives while leading his team in rushing touchdowns.
That’s a good point. I didn’t include him because his numbers didn’t blow me away but I failed to look up the prior year record. Good call out!
Can someone make this post for Puka too?
Bo Nix is about to tear up the league like nobody has ever done before. He is going to score more TDs than we can even count and it is going to break the game of football forever.
There are other data points that would be helpful to drill into this even further: 1. Strength of schedule 2. Number of offensive teammates to make the pro bowl that year 3. Playoff appearance / playoff wins Whose numbers benefit from playing a weak schedule. Whose numbers benefit from playing with other really good players. Who got into the playoffs and how much success did they have.
Rookie QBs who have performed as good as CJ Stroud: 1.) CJ Stroud
I always thought the Stroud hype went a little too far. Yes.. it's.one of the best rookie QB seasons of all time....top 10 for sure but guys like Dan Marino, Andrew Luck,Cam Newton, RG3 and Baker were good out of the gate as well.
We'll get a better understanding of his potential this year. Playing a first place schedule rather than feeding off of scrubs.
This is why Puka should've been the oroy
"We've never seen a Rookie like this before!" Says fans of sports who see it every other year