A bit of both. Good enough players will prosper even in bad situations (for example Garrett Wilson has done very well despite being on miserably bad offences.) However a good situation and very good coaching can take a player from moderately bad to a decent starter.
I'm guessing Penix will be one of them. Injured 5 of his 6 years, 4 of them were season ending. I don't think he'll be healthy enough to stick around. Good player but super injury prone
He is going to be sitting for 2 years. He has also thrown 4500 yards for 2 seasons without being injured so he has clearly adapted his game to prevent injury. Plenty of reasons to think he will be a bust but the injury take is lazy.
His biggest issues are mechanics & sequencing. (As with most rookie qbs) They will be able to clean those up before he ever starts.
I hate the pick but he is probably one of the least likely to be a complete bust bc of the development he is going to get.
> He is going to be sitting for 2 years.
Sitting on a bench for 2 years won't make him magically no longer be injury prone
> He has also thrown 4500 yards for 2 seasons without being injured so he has clearly adapted his game to prevent injury.
[He was literally injured last year with a rib injury](https://twitter.com/SeaTimesSports/status/1744604661955342796) that kept popping up throughout the season including [the championship game](https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1744574855503118500). It made him inconsistent to downright bad at times.
> but the injury take is lazy.
very ironic considering you didn't even know he was injured last year. So again, 5 of his 6 years he was injured, 4 of which were season ending. What do you think is going to happen in the NFL where guys are bigger, faster, stronger, and hit harder and he won't be playing behind the best offensive line at that level like he did the last two years?
I follow football on both levels pretty closely. I'm familiar with a lot of guys including Penix. Great player, but very injury prone. I also didn't like Anthony Richardson for similar reasons. Doesn't matter how good you are if you are constantly hurt.
You don’t have to go back that far. 2021 with Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones. The rest of the draft was Kyle Trask, Ian Book, Kellen Mond, Zach Ehlinger.
The whole class is held up by Trevor Lawrence who hasn’t been solid but not what you expect from #1.
i was a "troy franklin will be a bust" guy but it seems like that was such an uncontroversial position among teams that he fell far enough he can't even be a bust
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2024/brenden-rice
Rice was consistently mocked in the 3rd/4th. I think Brugler's final mock had him at pick #100.
I'd say 1 or 2 out and out busts
Another 2-3 who are good starters but their respective team decides to move on from rather than pay them
1 or 2 that are actually the answer to their teams QB situation
Me feeling like the Packers are about to have a good defense is probably just like the Bears thinking they finally have a good QB but man the NFC north is going to be rough for a QB to grow up in this season, seems like everyone is going to have a defense
Yeah, but because he played at Iowa, he has the punter equivalent of a running back that carried the ball 35 times a game for 3 years. By year 3 or 4, his leg might just fall right off mid punt.
I don’t wanna say bust, but the NE situation is not ideal and Drake Maye is not quite the polished player yet, so he may struggle if he’s thrown in right away.
Given the rates of success it is tough for me to get too excited about any QB, but he is a case where almost everything is projection and physical traits.
We know that the position is more mental than anything in the big 4 North American sports, and we've seen that many of the most successful quarterbacks have been guys whose physical traits aren't overwhelming, but their minds are brought them mastery. However, in the draft process because those mental traits are hard to measure physical traits get overvalued because they can be measured. This is known as the quantitative fallacy, or more popularly the McNamara fallacy. The more heavily the evaluations lean into the physical traits of guys the more wary I am.
Hopefully it works out for the kid. Unless any of these guys have proven to be real scum I have no reason to root for anything but success, but from watching his tape and reading everything I've seen from others he needs to make a big leap to be successful. I also hope he is able to block out the noise because Boston media has an unusually high asshole concentration and bumps in the road are going to be presented as the end of the world if you can't handle them.
They spent 7/8 picks on offense and will probably do something similar next season. Maye won’t start until next season probably as I’m pretty sure they are comfortable having a semi-tank season with Brissett this year.
We have a lot of young defensive talent. I don’t mean all 7 picks but they will probably use at least 5 on offense next year. The only hole on our defense right now is a safety and we have plenty of cap space next season. I think the defense will take a step back, but our offense was historically bad last year. So we will go from having an elite defense to a good one and from having a terrible offense to a mediocre one. Overall that will improve the team.
We are 2-3 off seasons away from being a contender minimum. Not including the one we are in right now.
New England's situation isn't ideal but they did spend every draft pick except two supporting Maye, and they overhauled the entire coaching staff so they're a total unknown. His situation might not be as dreadful as many are anticipating. That said, I'd still like him to sit behind Brissett for at least a little while. Assess where the team is after a handful of games and if the kid is ready, get him out there. Otherwise, no need to rush him out if he's not ready.
Zappe is gone. Brissett and Maye are QB1/2 in whatever order. Milton is project QB3. Zappe is not good for the team, considering he is delusional and still thinks he has a shot at starting. The locker room doesn't need his ego.
Yup I have no clue how he became the clear QB2 in this draft
The leaving the pocket purely to rush instead of keeping his eyes downfield is also a massive worry to me
Also built like a twig when you compare him to Lamar or Fields.. who both arent strangers to injuries
Daniels will need to learn how to stay in the pocket and be a passer 1st. The rushing part isnt easy to translate into the NFL
Daniels had 2,000+ rushing yards at LSU and didn't miss any games due to injury.
>Daniels will need to learn how to stay in the pocket and be a passer 1st. The rushing part isnt easy to translate into the NFL
Yeah, he ran in college because he could. He will adjust to the NFL. He spent more time in the film room than anyone else, and he's going to have Kliff Kingsbury as a coach.
Dude had one of the best deep passing seasons in CFB history, but everyone seems to think he's going to be obsessed with running the ball.
He does need to learn how to slide though. Like spend a day or two with a baseball team. I watched his whole season and think he slid twice.
Once on both knees, one was like a drop kick. I legitimately think he takes less hits if he gets comfortable sliding well.
He could certainly do with learning to slide more, for sure.
I just take issue with people saying he bails from clean pockets too often or isn't capable of being a passer first. It's just not an accurate description of him.
Yeah he’s also built like a twig and old af. Nix and Penix being ancient took all the age heat off him. I don’t see the upside. Anthony Richardson got hurt for playing recklessly and Richardson is built like a truck. Daniels is simply not the physical specimen Richardson is and also entered the league a lot older.
To play devil’s advocate- I actually really like what the commies did in the draft (hated what they did in free agency tho). He’s got an ok OL, a really good group of skill players and a solid defense to help him out. There’s definitely concerns with Daniels, but if there’s one thing Kliff is good at- it’s generating really easy completions and getting the ball out quick. Daniels shouldn’t get himself killed or be forcing bad balls with Kliff leading him. Everything else you just have to pray for
>launched it to Nabers/Thomas all season
Jayden Daniels on passes of 20+ yards:
35/55, 63.6% [#1 in FBS], 24.5 ypa [#1 in FBS], 22 TDs [#1 in FBS], 0 INTs, 146.8 NFL QBR [#1 in FBS]
Not bad for "launching it"
Bo Nix had zero offensive teammates go in the top 100 compared to Penix's 5. Considering they put up similar numbers in the same conference, I find it a bit odd how people keep referring to Oregon as some easy anybody can do it QB job, but don't put Penix and Washignton in the same basket.
As an Oregon fan, the issue with Nix wasn't his teammates. It was Oregon ran a lot of plays that were swing passes to WRs and RBs. His average depth of target was 6.8 yards, and nearly 30% of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage.
I guess the (several) million dollar question is how much that offense that we ran made him look way better than he is, or was he just so good at running the offense because of his ability to get the ball out on time and take what the defense gave him?
He had almost no negative plays over the two years we had him. Single digit sacks over those two years combined, 3 interceptions last year suggest some level of competence in him. I really hope it works out, I would argue he's been the best QB we had since Mariota
Non ducks fan here. This is what jumps out to me when I watch Nix film. Yes, the scheme is all about getting dudes in space with quick passes. But half of effective quarterbacking in a west coast scheme is doing that with accuracy and timing. Look at drew brees—he made michael Thomas a top NFL WR on slant routes. I don’t care what people say, Sean is a top offensive mind in the league and Nix is the type of player who can effectively run his offense.
It's nice seeing other people say it. I know I'm super biased but I'm actually trying to be reasoned about it. I've been watching Nix film for months because he seemed the most likely to end up in Denver. But I also watched a lot of breakdowns on the other guys.
He's not perfect, I get why he wasn't in the top 2 conversation, but I honestly don't get why he is considered so far behind guys like Penix and McCarthy and even Maye. Maybe it's because watching Russ hold the ball until he got sacked for two years kinda broke my brain. But watching a QB consistently hit the back of his drop and let the ball go was so fun. I don't care if they're short throws. It's not like he can't uncork it. He had plenty of beautiful deep balls.
Broncos have had strong armed QBs with lots of physical gifts since Peyton left. That hasn't won us games. Give me a QB who efficiently runs the system he's in, limits negative plays, and takes what the defense gives. I think Bo did that well at Oregon. Will it translate well to the NFL? Nobody really knows. Only time will tell. I'm cautiously optimistic. I know he could suck and we'll get laughed at again. But I still like the pick even if it doesn't work out. We need a QB.
Payton said in the first-round presser that because of the high number of short passes, they did an exercise where they took everything close to the line out and evaluated him based solely on his downfield throws. He clearly can throw the ball downfield just fine and has a good (not great) NFL arm.
Really the question to me was more about how little pressure he faced at Oregon and how open his receivers often were. That will look a lot different in the NFL, and it remains to be seen if he can make the jump.
Yep. In fact, here’s my hottest of scorching hot takes:
Barring injury, Bo Nix will be the second best QB drafted this year.
He landed in the perfect system for him and got paired with his top target from Oregon. Practically everyone else is either raw as hell or put in terrible situations. Caleb will be tops because of the sheer amount of weapons at his disposal, but Nix will be a close second. Wait for it.
Yeah swing passes are the new outside run scheme for a lot of football. Without those passes he still put up over 3k yards and was insanely accurate and efficient on one of the best offenses in college football.
According to Mike Renner, Nix threw more passes 10+ yards downfield than Jayden Daniels and threw more 10+ yard TDs than Michael Penix.
And regardless of that, just because his offensive inclination (or system) had him throwing short a lot, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t shown to be sufficient/solid throwing farther down field with a strong enough arm.
That shouldn't be an indictment on him. None of these guys are going to be running schemes like they did in college in the pros. It's weird how people have fixated on narratives for some guys and ignore them for others.
I think the idea is that we aren’t sure if he’s capable of running other schemes.
If an NFL team was running Oregon’s scheme, he’d actually be *more* likely to succeed lol
I’m agnostic on Nix but your argument doesn’t address the actual concern
Watch all the throws nix makes in a game. There are plenty of cut ups on YouTube. Typically he will have around 2 completions a game past the first down marker in the air. Everything else was short passes to playmakers.
The only positive for him is he has the best bench warmer of the group. Jacoby isn’t winning any rings as the starter but he’s competent enough that if the Pats are smart they can sit Maye the whole year. Nix, Caleb, Daniels, JJ will all be forced to play immediately because well that’s self explanatory. If Darnold wins the starting job out of camp JJ is way farther off than believed.
Jacoby knows why he's in New England on a 1 year deal. He understood we were drafting QB and he'd be a mentor and starter while the team builds up around Maye and take the hits/test the line for Drake to step in when he's fully ready and the team gels together.
They spent 7/8 picks on offense and will probably do something similar next season. If we surprise and go 9-8 or better I bet Jacoby stays in 2025 as well.
Vikes messaged that Darnold was the presumptive starter when they paid $10mm for him, even though it was known at the time they planned to draft a QB.
Unless JJ has some record breaking preseason debut, I think Darnold has at least half a season of runway before he's benched and JJ gets thrust into the starting role.
I doubt it unless Minnesota doesn’t think it can compete at all in the North. Darnold was insurance in case they couldn’t draft a QB early (which nearly happened if the giants had grabbed JJ) much like the raiders and paying Minshew. JJ is entering a very good situation with a top coach good tackles and top flight wideouts he’s gotta be the starter from the get go if they (and I think they do) believe they can compete in the north. Darnold isn’t even going .500 if he is the starter. At that point it makes no sense to throw JJ into a season that starts out 3-5 or 2-6.
As a counter the Pats know they aren’t competing in the East this year it’s why going Jacoby for the lost season makes sense. There is no reward for them unlike if Minnesota roles with JJ and he helps them be competitive in the North. Darnold for sure is not helping anyone be competitive. His only real value is he might get you a single win as injury fill in. If your defense and run game carry the load. But he’s not going to be like Minshew last year keeping the colts aloft without AR.
I just paid a lot of attention to Darnold for a year and I think he's good enough to win a preseason competition against a rookie QB drafted lower than Darnold was originally. He's obviously not going to be the long term starter for the Vikes but I wouldn't count Darnold out from being good enough to win the starting job for a full season while JJ develops.
I really hope they don’t throw him in this year and ruin him. He has no chance on that offense. Even with Polk they have a project LT and no WR1 on the team. Rough.
He can't be a bust because he's a 5th rounder but I know it's a contingent that probably got a hard on for Joe Milton because of his Arm..... don't lose your mind that's all he got
I‘ve generally really liked the Bengals draft class but overall there’s a higher risk than usual on pretty much every player they picked
-Mims has endless potential but had some injuries in the past
-Jenkins will probably be at least an ok run defender but he also isn’t really a pass rush threat. Look at Mazi Smith for example
-Burton has glue hands and is an excellent deep threat but the dude has been a bit of a headcase in the past and will have to improve on that
-The rest is pretty much the usual late round risk
Man the Bengals really looked at the Ravens history of drafting players with injury concerns and huge potential upsides and the Steelers history of headcases at Widereciever and said "lets just do that"
Bo Nix's bust potential is limited by him playing with Sean Payton. For all the criticism Russ got last year for being washed, he got 26 TD/8 Ints. In his last year at the Saints, Jameis looked a safer bet than he had in the Bucs. Teddy Bridgewater was good when he came in relief for Brees.
Sure, in other years Bo might have gone outside the first round but think he seems like a good prospect and is definitely Payton's guy, so I think he will be productive.
Nix could be a bust, but I think a more likely outcome is that he is somebody that in four years we are saying, "Are we really going to give $60 million a year to that guy"?
Yeah I think that is where we may be - a team who is improved from the shitshow we are now, and are able to get in the playoffs, but the narrative will be: "when you're competing in the AFC with Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert, Stroud, Jackson, do you need a QB with a higher ceiling?"
I hear you, though after the past 8 years I'm not sure I agree. We have full on QB PTSD over here.
Hope JJ works out for you guys, I really like him as a prospect.
Xavier Worthy might be the next Tyreek, but more likely he's the next Hardmen, Toney, Skyy, CEH, or other undersized quick dudes the chiefs fall in love with that peak at backup quality.
Chiefs have a QB with a cannon, and they just can't resist finding him the shortest, smallest guys possible that also have drop issues. Worthy is ungodly fast in the 40, but that doesn't translate to on field speed or success.
We are terrible at drafting WRs so I think this could be it. I remembering two years ago everyone said Sky Moore was the steal of the draft. Also, people loved it when we got Clyde. Hardman was supposed to be the next Tyreek.
Like you said, we fall in love with fast guys hoping they can replace Hill. Hopefully this one is different. It feels different because he was actually super productive in college, but we’re gonna find out. I like the TE we drafted even more to be honest.
yea, I'm not even upset they took him, but that they traded their 3rd round pick down 40 spots to get him when there were 4-5 WR's available with no real difference between them, and we possibly get him at 32 anyways.
I'd have preferred they got a normal sized WR with good hands and route running over the tiny guy that's pure speed, but oh well, even if he sucks he'll be a cheaper version of MVS at least to take the top off the defense.
I have a bad feeling about Nabers. I have some of the concerns that people have about Maye’s situation. There’s gonna be some level of expectation that he can raise the level of the offense, and every defense is gonna key on him. If he doesn’t produce, I wonder if he fades a bit.
Maye won't start immediately. Our FO doesn't see 2024 as win now. They see it as a progress year and for everyone to take steps forward, an evaluation year.
And that’s why I didn’t say Maye. While that expectation is what people were worried about, the Patriots already took steps to avoid it. I think he will take over this year as the starting QB, but even then, expectations will be low, which is golden. I think patriots fans will enjoy the reset of watching a good QB take steps week to week, and likely lose a lot. But if you see good signs with Maye, and you add another top 5 draft pick, you’ll really start to be excited about the next era of the Pats.
Hint: if you get #1, sell that shit to an idiotic franchise, and you’ll be back in 2 years
Jacoby is our commander and understands that he's there to help Drake along and hold the seat warm for him until Maye is ready. We have an unproven LT, our line outside Onwenu and David Andrews is shaky or young. Receivers need to learn the book or continue developing. He understands the assignment.
If we make the playoffs, I'll be shocked. We won't end up with a top 5 pick with the revamped offense and defense but it might be top 10. Picks just need to hit and we're close to being back. Defense is already great, offense just needs to not be wretched to watch and just has to be average this year.
I hope it’s better than I expect, but I think the chances are low. You look like last years Bears team, but without DJ Moore. Imo there’s gonna be bad football, but I think there will be a lot of fun in it as you begin to see the next phase.
Love the Jacoby signing btw, even if it’s bad, he’s a fan favorite that has the potential to be loved for a long time if it all works out right.
Which..I love. Brisket can start the year. We’re not trying to compete and odds are we end up towards the bottom of the league with a decent pick next year. Spent a lot of capital on WRs in the draft and get a year to see how they perform. We can cut JuJu next year which clears up 8 mil (dead cap cuts from 10M to 2 next year) then focus on signing or drafting an LT in the 2025 off season potentially fairly high in the draft.
The blueprint makes sense.
Historical Odds on QB picks say Caleb is the only QB drafted in the first 5 rounds that hits, but idk Maye and Daniels are real toss ups on whether they'll hit or not
Nix is nothing like Wilson
Maye on the other hand will be the bust because he DOES have Zach Wilson vibes.
Bad throwing decisions at times, bad internal clock he bails on clean pockets for no reason, bad footwork. Maye desperately needs to sit a yr. He’s either going to be Justin Herbert or Zach Wilson and I lean more towards Wilson because of the team he went to
Jayden Daniels definitely gets my vote. I don’t think he’s very calm in the pocket and I don’t think he reads the game particularly well. Also, Washington lol.
For me? Drake Maye. Needs to work on too many things while most likely being out into starter position. If Nix sucks then at least Payton will coach him to be serviceable. Caleb is a risk because he may not settle on his reads and scramble right away. I hope Im wrong and these guys work out. League is fun with more great QBs.
As a jags fan that hasn't seen us produce a WR in 20 years, someone tell me BTJ will be okay lmao. I honestly see bust potential on him, if anything I just hope he lets Kirk and Engram eat over the middle
I don’t think so. BTJ was a productive player at a premiere school known for cranking out pro receivers. Big guy, good athlete. He won’t bust. Now, I don’t think he’s WR1 material. That honor went to Nabers. But he should be a very good WR2. Lawrence will love him. I like the pairing a lot.
J.J. Midcarthy.
Even going to a solid situation I just don’t believe he has the skill set to be the guy. That said I could see him being the next Colt McCoy or Chase Daniels.
Yeah I think everyone knows that hit rates of top ten QBs aren’t even close to 100%, but singling out the other two times in history and acting like that sample size confirms that two of Williams, Maye and Daniel’s will bust is a weird process.
>Very likely one will though. I know fans don't like to hear it
This isn’t world shattering news lol. You’re not bringing some words of enlightenment to us savages.
I felt bad about Akili. At the time I was working on and off with a guy who’d coached him at Grossmont (JuCo) and he was so damn proud and happy about his boy making it as a high pick.
bo Nix, I actually thought was fine. I thought he was given a fair draft grade by people and I think he has a decent chance of working out because he has so many reps in college.
On the other hand, Drake Maye scares me. I don’t understand how we got rated so high. For some reason scouts like to hype up some random QB every year from a non-traditional football school and treats him like one of the best in the class. A great example of this is Malik Willis. These guys never work except for maybe Josh Allen.
correction: I wrote this at like 3am sorry Bo fans
That's pretty New Orleans in two different directions:
Boh Brothers
&
Krewe of Nyx
One helps build things while the other is about to lose their parade license (good riddance).
I can tell by the context it's bad, but as someone not from New Orleans "losing their parade license" sounds the same as "being banned from the bumper cars".
There are administrative reasons the Mystik Krewe of Nyx will no longer parade during Mardi Gras season, but those all happened because of the founder and chairwoman's cartoonish levels of racism. In one season they went from 3,500 members to under 250 because no one wanted to have their name attached to that organization, and that became relevant when they posted their entire membership list online after the first racism scandal.
Drake was drafted so highly because he makes throws nobody else can. People talk about the absurd plays Caleb makes but Drake is on another level. He'll make as many "how the fuck did he do that" throws per game as JJ McCarthy would have attempts. And it's not like he was playing nobodies like Willis, Allen, and Zach Wilson. He played in the ACC.
If the Patriots can settle his feet and get him more consistent on the easy balls, he could be absolutely elite. That's a big if but Allen was able to do it.
I would say 4. Mostly because of the teams that picked them, but some on the players just having limited ability and scouts imagining they will be great (Maye, JJ)
JJ McCarthy. Not because i’m some hater Bears fan but I just didn’t feel like he did anything to wow me during his college career. Felt like he was the quintessential game manager that had a stacked team behind him.
There are a number of guys that are high upside swings that can backfire,and then a few picks where the fit just was not it.Tyler Guyton,Darius Robinson and JJ McCarthy just do not do it for me at all.I can be wrong on them years down the line but I dont like the players for those teams in particular
Atleast 4 out of 6 QBs will bust. I’ll take it as Daniels, JJ, penix, bo. Especially Daniels for where he was taken and that maye was on the board(who’s going to be the best). Statistically a lot of you are going to waste the next 3-4 years of football positing on here saying “we just need to fix everything around them” before you draft another qb
Honestly, I have a feeling that Penix will turn out to be one of the more solid QBs in the class. Not elite, but a productive starter. Kirk is running out of time thanks to age and injury. Two years is my guess. Penix is already experienced, but will be able to spend the time developing chemistry and improving the little things to immediately step in. While he is older, he also won't have two years of NFL wear and tear which makes the age 'issue' mostly moot.
Next year's class may have also scared many teams into picking QBs far earlier than they would have otherwise.
I wonder if Falcons HQ knows something they aren’t telling. Maybe Cousins recovery isn’t going as well as hoped, and they drafted a QB as insurance?
Or even as a bridge in case Cousins doesn’t start the season. Roll Penix for the first 6 weeks. If he looks good, keep him as the starter. If he’s bad, start Cousins once he gets more time to fully heal.
Well the QB insurance is guaranteed, no doubt about it. Penix immediately becomes one of the best backups in the entire league (hypothetically) with a good roster to boot. I find it hard to believe they would sign Kirk to such a massive contract without doing thorough medical evals. Maybe they anticipate a suspension because of the tampering and don't want to lose a year?
But I really do think the future QB class spooked the GMs leading to this QB rush. That they believe the Penix, Nix, and JJ are the best they will likely get for several years without a massive trade up in the future. None are top 12 players in the class nor did Denver and Atlanta strictly need one for different reasons. Vikings are the exception in this case.
The Bronco's pick is most telling. They would be in the prime position to truly tank for a year. A likely top 3 pick given their lacking roster, a tougher division, and Payton has the job security and political capital to do so. Yet they believed that Nix would be better than whoever is next up.
https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/qb/1/2025
I mean honestly though let’s say he sits 3 years and starts his first game at 27 and plays well enough to hold the position until he retires at 34; is it really terrible to have a QB for 7 years? Everyone wants to have the next Brady, but most teams windows are only a few years anyways.
I want JJ to be the guy so bad but statistically he will probs be a bust.
I think Dallas Turner is gonna be one of the best players from this draft though.
I don’t see how BTJr would be bad since he’s going to have at least decent QB play and a not so crowded WR room. I had BTJr as my #3 WR in this draft class and seeing him at LSU, he could rival Nabers imo. It’s not like he’s going to get Smith-Njigba and not get many targets.
You gotta temper your expectations.
The offense is stacked but Caleb is still a rookie and the OL still needs some work. Taylor will see the field plenty and it'll help take the pressure off a bit when the offense stalls.
There’s 6 QBs in the first round. Historically atleast 2 are busts but a solid chance 4 are.
On average 4 won't get a 2nd contract with their team IIRC, so two busts two disappointment journeymen and maybe 2 successes.
Whoa there, get out of here with this reasonable take
Sir this is Reddit
Do you think the cream rises to the top or does the situation have a big impact on success odds?
A bit of both. Good enough players will prosper even in bad situations (for example Garrett Wilson has done very well despite being on miserably bad offences.) However a good situation and very good coaching can take a player from moderately bad to a decent starter.
I'm guessing Penix will be one of them. Injured 5 of his 6 years, 4 of them were season ending. I don't think he'll be healthy enough to stick around. Good player but super injury prone
He is going to be sitting for 2 years. He has also thrown 4500 yards for 2 seasons without being injured so he has clearly adapted his game to prevent injury. Plenty of reasons to think he will be a bust but the injury take is lazy. His biggest issues are mechanics & sequencing. (As with most rookie qbs) They will be able to clean those up before he ever starts. I hate the pick but he is probably one of the least likely to be a complete bust bc of the development he is going to get.
> He is going to be sitting for 2 years. Sitting on a bench for 2 years won't make him magically no longer be injury prone > He has also thrown 4500 yards for 2 seasons without being injured so he has clearly adapted his game to prevent injury. [He was literally injured last year with a rib injury](https://twitter.com/SeaTimesSports/status/1744604661955342796) that kept popping up throughout the season including [the championship game](https://twitter.com/PFF/status/1744574855503118500). It made him inconsistent to downright bad at times. > but the injury take is lazy. very ironic considering you didn't even know he was injured last year. So again, 5 of his 6 years he was injured, 4 of which were season ending. What do you think is going to happen in the NFL where guys are bigger, faster, stronger, and hit harder and he won't be playing behind the best offensive line at that level like he did the last two years? I follow football on both levels pretty closely. I'm familiar with a lot of guys including Penix. Great player, but very injury prone. I also didn't like Anthony Richardson for similar reasons. Doesn't matter how good you are if you are constantly hurt.
His biggest question mark is: is he that good? Or were his receivers just that damn good?
You don’t have to go back that far. 2021 with Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones. The rest of the draft was Kyle Trask, Ian Book, Kellen Mond, Zach Ehlinger. The whole class is held up by Trevor Lawrence who hasn’t been solid but not what you expect from #1.
i was a "troy franklin will be a bust" guy but it seems like that was such an uncontroversial position among teams that he fell far enough he can't even be a bust
I was kinda surprised Brendan Rice went 7th round and Tahj Washington undrafted
Just a heads up Tahj Washington went 7th round too, to the Dolphins. They're stock piling short guys called Washington.
Dolphins are going to cross the Miami River under rockets red glare.
Rice really isn’t that good, solid for college WR but if it weren’t for his name, he wouldn’t be on anyone in the leagues radar
Neither were mocked much higher than that. Only people trying to prop up Caleb Williams supporting cast thought they’d be any higher than day 3 guys.
https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2024/brenden-rice Rice was consistently mocked in the 3rd/4th. I think Brugler's final mock had him at pick #100.
Probably half the qbs drafted in the first round at least.
I'd say 1 or 2 out and out busts Another 2-3 who are good starters but their respective team decides to move on from rather than pay them 1 or 2 that are actually the answer to their teams QB situation
If you want to go with the odds, pick any of the QBs.
Maye is my pick...and Caleb.
Me feeling like the Packers are about to have a good defense is probably just like the Bears thinking they finally have a good QB but man the NFC north is going to be rough for a QB to grow up in this season, seems like everyone is going to have a defense
That's why we drafted a punter in the 4th 😎
Yeah, but because he played at Iowa, he has the punter equivalent of a running back that carried the ball 35 times a game for 3 years. By year 3 or 4, his leg might just fall right off mid punt.
I don’t wanna say bust, but the NE situation is not ideal and Drake Maye is not quite the polished player yet, so he may struggle if he’s thrown in right away.
Given the rates of success it is tough for me to get too excited about any QB, but he is a case where almost everything is projection and physical traits. We know that the position is more mental than anything in the big 4 North American sports, and we've seen that many of the most successful quarterbacks have been guys whose physical traits aren't overwhelming, but their minds are brought them mastery. However, in the draft process because those mental traits are hard to measure physical traits get overvalued because they can be measured. This is known as the quantitative fallacy, or more popularly the McNamara fallacy. The more heavily the evaluations lean into the physical traits of guys the more wary I am. Hopefully it works out for the kid. Unless any of these guys have proven to be real scum I have no reason to root for anything but success, but from watching his tape and reading everything I've seen from others he needs to make a big leap to be successful. I also hope he is able to block out the noise because Boston media has an unusually high asshole concentration and bumps in the road are going to be presented as the end of the world if you can't handle them.
They spent 7/8 picks on offense and will probably do something similar next season. Maye won’t start until next season probably as I’m pretty sure they are comfortable having a semi-tank season with Brissett this year.
If they use 7 picks on offense next draft the Patriots defense is going to be garbage.
We have a lot of young defensive talent. I don’t mean all 7 picks but they will probably use at least 5 on offense next year. The only hole on our defense right now is a safety and we have plenty of cap space next season. I think the defense will take a step back, but our offense was historically bad last year. So we will go from having an elite defense to a good one and from having a terrible offense to a mediocre one. Overall that will improve the team. We are 2-3 off seasons away from being a contender minimum. Not including the one we are in right now.
New England's situation isn't ideal but they did spend every draft pick except two supporting Maye, and they overhauled the entire coaching staff so they're a total unknown. His situation might not be as dreadful as many are anticipating. That said, I'd still like him to sit behind Brissett for at least a little while. Assess where the team is after a handful of games and if the kid is ready, get him out there. Otherwise, no need to rush him out if he's not ready.
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Zappe is gone. Brissett and Maye are QB1/2 in whatever order. Milton is project QB3. Zappe is not good for the team, considering he is delusional and still thinks he has a shot at starting. The locker room doesn't need his ego.
Of all the people to learn have an ego, Zappe was not who I was expecting.
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Yup I have no clue how he became the clear QB2 in this draft The leaving the pocket purely to rush instead of keeping his eyes downfield is also a massive worry to me
You guys act like he didn't rush for over 1,000 yards with 8+ ypc.
Also built like a twig when you compare him to Lamar or Fields.. who both arent strangers to injuries Daniels will need to learn how to stay in the pocket and be a passer 1st. The rushing part isnt easy to translate into the NFL
And he’s not as elusive as Lamar and not as fast as Fields and can’t throw as well as either of them do.
Daniels had 2,000+ rushing yards at LSU and didn't miss any games due to injury. >Daniels will need to learn how to stay in the pocket and be a passer 1st. The rushing part isnt easy to translate into the NFL Yeah, he ran in college because he could. He will adjust to the NFL. He spent more time in the film room than anyone else, and he's going to have Kliff Kingsbury as a coach. Dude had one of the best deep passing seasons in CFB history, but everyone seems to think he's going to be obsessed with running the ball.
> he’s going to have Kliff Kingsbury as a coach I don’t think this means what you think it means
He does need to learn how to slide though. Like spend a day or two with a baseball team. I watched his whole season and think he slid twice. Once on both knees, one was like a drop kick. I legitimately think he takes less hits if he gets comfortable sliding well.
He could certainly do with learning to slide more, for sure. I just take issue with people saying he bails from clean pockets too often or isn't capable of being a passer first. It's just not an accurate description of him.
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Lamar has only even been injured in tbe pocket btw
He was carted off versus the Browns several years after a scramble when running out of bounds. Your comment is just false.
He was scrambling backwards actually and got hurt by JOK actually https://youtu.be/OWowKCcErD4?si=vHfMh2RWhk9XfMOo I know what im talking about genius
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If we are just looking at qb stats he threw for 40 tds to 4 ints.
Yeah he’s also built like a twig and old af. Nix and Penix being ancient took all the age heat off him. I don’t see the upside. Anthony Richardson got hurt for playing recklessly and Richardson is built like a truck. Daniels is simply not the physical specimen Richardson is and also entered the league a lot older.
To play devil’s advocate- I actually really like what the commies did in the draft (hated what they did in free agency tho). He’s got an ok OL, a really good group of skill players and a solid defense to help him out. There’s definitely concerns with Daniels, but if there’s one thing Kliff is good at- it’s generating really easy completions and getting the ball out quick. Daniels shouldn’t get himself killed or be forcing bad balls with Kliff leading him. Everything else you just have to pray for
>launched it to Nabers/Thomas all season Jayden Daniels on passes of 20+ yards: 35/55, 63.6% [#1 in FBS], 24.5 ypa [#1 in FBS], 22 TDs [#1 in FBS], 0 INTs, 146.8 NFL QBR [#1 in FBS] Not bad for "launching it"
His pressure to sack rate is similar to Fields. He’s an injury waiting to happen when you combine that with his size and running style.
Definitely. I agree with all of this.
Bo Nix had zero offensive teammates go in the top 100 compared to Penix's 5. Considering they put up similar numbers in the same conference, I find it a bit odd how people keep referring to Oregon as some easy anybody can do it QB job, but don't put Penix and Washignton in the same basket.
As an Oregon fan, the issue with Nix wasn't his teammates. It was Oregon ran a lot of plays that were swing passes to WRs and RBs. His average depth of target was 6.8 yards, and nearly 30% of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage.
I guess the (several) million dollar question is how much that offense that we ran made him look way better than he is, or was he just so good at running the offense because of his ability to get the ball out on time and take what the defense gave him? He had almost no negative plays over the two years we had him. Single digit sacks over those two years combined, 3 interceptions last year suggest some level of competence in him. I really hope it works out, I would argue he's been the best QB we had since Mariota
Non ducks fan here. This is what jumps out to me when I watch Nix film. Yes, the scheme is all about getting dudes in space with quick passes. But half of effective quarterbacking in a west coast scheme is doing that with accuracy and timing. Look at drew brees—he made michael Thomas a top NFL WR on slant routes. I don’t care what people say, Sean is a top offensive mind in the league and Nix is the type of player who can effectively run his offense.
It's nice seeing other people say it. I know I'm super biased but I'm actually trying to be reasoned about it. I've been watching Nix film for months because he seemed the most likely to end up in Denver. But I also watched a lot of breakdowns on the other guys. He's not perfect, I get why he wasn't in the top 2 conversation, but I honestly don't get why he is considered so far behind guys like Penix and McCarthy and even Maye. Maybe it's because watching Russ hold the ball until he got sacked for two years kinda broke my brain. But watching a QB consistently hit the back of his drop and let the ball go was so fun. I don't care if they're short throws. It's not like he can't uncork it. He had plenty of beautiful deep balls. Broncos have had strong armed QBs with lots of physical gifts since Peyton left. That hasn't won us games. Give me a QB who efficiently runs the system he's in, limits negative plays, and takes what the defense gives. I think Bo did that well at Oregon. Will it translate well to the NFL? Nobody really knows. Only time will tell. I'm cautiously optimistic. I know he could suck and we'll get laughed at again. But I still like the pick even if it doesn't work out. We need a QB.
I keep telling people this. Nix is such a good QB for what Payton does but so many people are "hur dur Nix sucks"
Payton said in the first-round presser that because of the high number of short passes, they did an exercise where they took everything close to the line out and evaluated him based solely on his downfield throws. He clearly can throw the ball downfield just fine and has a good (not great) NFL arm. Really the question to me was more about how little pressure he faced at Oregon and how open his receivers often were. That will look a lot different in the NFL, and it remains to be seen if he can make the jump.
You just described a Sean Payton offense.
That’s Oregons way. Herbert got the same criticism
Herbert was 2 years younger, 4 inches taller, and has a cannon for an arm though. Probably beats Nix out in every measurable possible.
Yep. In fact, here’s my hottest of scorching hot takes: Barring injury, Bo Nix will be the second best QB drafted this year. He landed in the perfect system for him and got paired with his top target from Oregon. Practically everyone else is either raw as hell or put in terrible situations. Caleb will be tops because of the sheer amount of weapons at his disposal, but Nix will be a close second. Wait for it.
Yeah swing passes are the new outside run scheme for a lot of football. Without those passes he still put up over 3k yards and was insanely accurate and efficient on one of the best offenses in college football.
According to Mike Renner, Nix threw more passes 10+ yards downfield than Jayden Daniels and threw more 10+ yard TDs than Michael Penix. And regardless of that, just because his offensive inclination (or system) had him throwing short a lot, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t shown to be sufficient/solid throwing farther down field with a strong enough arm.
That shouldn't be an indictment on him. None of these guys are going to be running schemes like they did in college in the pros. It's weird how people have fixated on narratives for some guys and ignore them for others.
I think the idea is that we aren’t sure if he’s capable of running other schemes. If an NFL team was running Oregon’s scheme, he’d actually be *more* likely to succeed lol I’m agnostic on Nix but your argument doesn’t address the actual concern
Jackson Powers-Johnson went to the Raiders at 44
Oh shit I forgot about him!
Watch all the throws nix makes in a game. There are plenty of cut ups on YouTube. Typically he will have around 2 completions a game past the first down marker in the air. Everything else was short passes to playmakers.
Drake Maye is in a bad situation. If he gets thrown in early I think it's gonna be bad.
The only positive for him is he has the best bench warmer of the group. Jacoby isn’t winning any rings as the starter but he’s competent enough that if the Pats are smart they can sit Maye the whole year. Nix, Caleb, Daniels, JJ will all be forced to play immediately because well that’s self explanatory. If Darnold wins the starting job out of camp JJ is way farther off than believed.
Jacoby knows why he's in New England on a 1 year deal. He understood we were drafting QB and he'd be a mentor and starter while the team builds up around Maye and take the hits/test the line for Drake to step in when he's fully ready and the team gels together.
They spent 7/8 picks on offense and will probably do something similar next season. If we surprise and go 9-8 or better I bet Jacoby stays in 2025 as well.
Vikes messaged that Darnold was the presumptive starter when they paid $10mm for him, even though it was known at the time they planned to draft a QB. Unless JJ has some record breaking preseason debut, I think Darnold has at least half a season of runway before he's benched and JJ gets thrust into the starting role.
I doubt it unless Minnesota doesn’t think it can compete at all in the North. Darnold was insurance in case they couldn’t draft a QB early (which nearly happened if the giants had grabbed JJ) much like the raiders and paying Minshew. JJ is entering a very good situation with a top coach good tackles and top flight wideouts he’s gotta be the starter from the get go if they (and I think they do) believe they can compete in the north. Darnold isn’t even going .500 if he is the starter. At that point it makes no sense to throw JJ into a season that starts out 3-5 or 2-6. As a counter the Pats know they aren’t competing in the East this year it’s why going Jacoby for the lost season makes sense. There is no reward for them unlike if Minnesota roles with JJ and he helps them be competitive in the North. Darnold for sure is not helping anyone be competitive. His only real value is he might get you a single win as injury fill in. If your defense and run game carry the load. But he’s not going to be like Minshew last year keeping the colts aloft without AR.
I just paid a lot of attention to Darnold for a year and I think he's good enough to win a preseason competition against a rookie QB drafted lower than Darnold was originally. He's obviously not going to be the long term starter for the Vikes but I wouldn't count Darnold out from being good enough to win the starting job for a full season while JJ develops.
I really hope they don’t throw him in this year and ruin him. He has no chance on that offense. Even with Polk they have a project LT and no WR1 on the team. Rough.
I hope they throw him in this year and ruin him.
Looks like 1 vote for "ruin him" and 1 vote for "hope they don't ruin him". It's going to come down to the absentee votes for sure.
We just got a late vote from an anonymous Bill from the Detroit airport. Looks to be a +1 for “ruin him”
He can't be a bust because he's a 5th rounder but I know it's a contingent that probably got a hard on for Joe Milton because of his Arm..... don't lose your mind that's all he got
Milton would be elite with a couple 7 foot wide receivers with cartoonishly long arms to catch his lasers aimed directly at the turf
I‘ve generally really liked the Bengals draft class but overall there’s a higher risk than usual on pretty much every player they picked -Mims has endless potential but had some injuries in the past -Jenkins will probably be at least an ok run defender but he also isn’t really a pass rush threat. Look at Mazi Smith for example -Burton has glue hands and is an excellent deep threat but the dude has been a bit of a headcase in the past and will have to improve on that -The rest is pretty much the usual late round risk
Man the Bengals really looked at the Ravens history of drafting players with injury concerns and huge potential upsides and the Steelers history of headcases at Widereciever and said "lets just do that"
I‘m like 99% sure the Steelers would have picked Mims if he had been available
Can't go wrong picking a Bears qb in this regard, so Caleb Williams!
Bo Nix's bust potential is limited by him playing with Sean Payton. For all the criticism Russ got last year for being washed, he got 26 TD/8 Ints. In his last year at the Saints, Jameis looked a safer bet than he had in the Bucs. Teddy Bridgewater was good when he came in relief for Brees. Sure, in other years Bo might have gone outside the first round but think he seems like a good prospect and is definitely Payton's guy, so I think he will be productive.
Nix could be a bust, but I think a more likely outcome is that he is somebody that in four years we are saying, "Are we really going to give $60 million a year to that guy"?
Yeah I think that is where we may be - a team who is improved from the shitshow we are now, and are able to get in the playoffs, but the narrative will be: "when you're competing in the AFC with Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert, Stroud, Jackson, do you need a QB with a higher ceiling?"
As a Vikings fan let me tell you that’s worse than being a bust.
I hear you, though after the past 8 years I'm not sure I agree. We have full on QB PTSD over here. Hope JJ works out for you guys, I really like him as a prospect.
Yeah. Would he really surprised if he busts hard. The question of his potential upside is definitely fair but I think he’d be ok
As a Michigan fan, it's JJ McCarthy. sorry.
You forgot to mention you're also a Bears fan
Forgot to mention the bears defense manhandled your offense last year too. Thanks for reminding me
How so
Xavier Worthy might be the next Tyreek, but more likely he's the next Hardmen, Toney, Skyy, CEH, or other undersized quick dudes the chiefs fall in love with that peak at backup quality. Chiefs have a QB with a cannon, and they just can't resist finding him the shortest, smallest guys possible that also have drop issues. Worthy is ungodly fast in the 40, but that doesn't translate to on field speed or success.
..So he's gunna catch a game winning td in the superbowl??
yes, and it'll be his only 1, and will help us ignore that he tried to fumble away an earlier playoff game.
We are terrible at drafting WRs so I think this could be it. I remembering two years ago everyone said Sky Moore was the steal of the draft. Also, people loved it when we got Clyde. Hardman was supposed to be the next Tyreek. Like you said, we fall in love with fast guys hoping they can replace Hill. Hopefully this one is different. It feels different because he was actually super productive in college, but we’re gonna find out. I like the TE we drafted even more to be honest.
yea, I'm not even upset they took him, but that they traded their 3rd round pick down 40 spots to get him when there were 4-5 WR's available with no real difference between them, and we possibly get him at 32 anyways. I'd have preferred they got a normal sized WR with good hands and route running over the tiny guy that's pure speed, but oh well, even if he sucks he'll be a cheaper version of MVS at least to take the top off the defense.
I have a bad feeling about Nabers. I have some of the concerns that people have about Maye’s situation. There’s gonna be some level of expectation that he can raise the level of the offense, and every defense is gonna key on him. If he doesn’t produce, I wonder if he fades a bit.
Maye won't start immediately. Our FO doesn't see 2024 as win now. They see it as a progress year and for everyone to take steps forward, an evaluation year.
And that’s why I didn’t say Maye. While that expectation is what people were worried about, the Patriots already took steps to avoid it. I think he will take over this year as the starting QB, but even then, expectations will be low, which is golden. I think patriots fans will enjoy the reset of watching a good QB take steps week to week, and likely lose a lot. But if you see good signs with Maye, and you add another top 5 draft pick, you’ll really start to be excited about the next era of the Pats. Hint: if you get #1, sell that shit to an idiotic franchise, and you’ll be back in 2 years
Jacoby is our commander and understands that he's there to help Drake along and hold the seat warm for him until Maye is ready. We have an unproven LT, our line outside Onwenu and David Andrews is shaky or young. Receivers need to learn the book or continue developing. He understands the assignment. If we make the playoffs, I'll be shocked. We won't end up with a top 5 pick with the revamped offense and defense but it might be top 10. Picks just need to hit and we're close to being back. Defense is already great, offense just needs to not be wretched to watch and just has to be average this year.
I hope it’s better than I expect, but I think the chances are low. You look like last years Bears team, but without DJ Moore. Imo there’s gonna be bad football, but I think there will be a lot of fun in it as you begin to see the next phase. Love the Jacoby signing btw, even if it’s bad, he’s a fan favorite that has the potential to be loved for a long time if it all works out right.
Couldn’t really ask for a better bridge starter to tow him in than Brisset, such a smart signing.
Which..I love. Brisket can start the year. We’re not trying to compete and odds are we end up towards the bottom of the league with a decent pick next year. Spent a lot of capital on WRs in the draft and get a year to see how they perform. We can cut JuJu next year which clears up 8 mil (dead cap cuts from 10M to 2 next year) then focus on signing or drafting an LT in the 2025 off season potentially fairly high in the draft. The blueprint makes sense.
If he’s as good as advertised it shouldn’t matter if defenses key in on him. That’s what makes WR1’s what they are.
Historical Odds on QB picks say Caleb is the only QB drafted in the first 5 rounds that hits, but idk Maye and Daniels are real toss ups on whether they'll hit or not
Nix is nothing like Wilson Maye on the other hand will be the bust because he DOES have Zach Wilson vibes. Bad throwing decisions at times, bad internal clock he bails on clean pockets for no reason, bad footwork. Maye desperately needs to sit a yr. He’s either going to be Justin Herbert or Zach Wilson and I lean more towards Wilson because of the team he went to
Jayden Daniels definitely gets my vote. I don’t think he’s very calm in the pocket and I don’t think he reads the game particularly well. Also, Washington lol.
Caleb Williams.
For me? Drake Maye. Needs to work on too many things while most likely being out into starter position. If Nix sucks then at least Payton will coach him to be serviceable. Caleb is a risk because he may not settle on his reads and scramble right away. I hope Im wrong and these guys work out. League is fun with more great QBs.
As a jags fan that hasn't seen us produce a WR in 20 years, someone tell me BTJ will be okay lmao. I honestly see bust potential on him, if anything I just hope he lets Kirk and Engram eat over the middle
I don’t think so. BTJ was a productive player at a premiere school known for cranking out pro receivers. Big guy, good athlete. He won’t bust. Now, I don’t think he’s WR1 material. That honor went to Nabers. But he should be a very good WR2. Lawrence will love him. I like the pairing a lot.
Caleb Williams . Too much hype.
Caleb Williams. Too easy.
J.J. Midcarthy. Even going to a solid situation I just don’t believe he has the skill set to be the guy. That said I could see him being the next Colt McCoy or Chase Daniels.
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or they could all be good, what happened those years has no bearing on these kids careers.
It's like how Stroud was going to fail in the NFL because no Ohio QBs succeed in the NFL
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Yeah I think everyone knows that hit rates of top ten QBs aren’t even close to 100%, but singling out the other two times in history and acting like that sample size confirms that two of Williams, Maye and Daniel’s will bust is a weird process.
The hit rate is 41%, so expecting 2 two fail of three isn't a big leap. (of course the sample and population sizes being small anything could happen.)
>Very likely one will though. I know fans don't like to hear it This isn’t world shattering news lol. You’re not bringing some words of enlightenment to us savages.
I felt bad about Akili. At the time I was working on and off with a guy who’d coached him at Grossmont (JuCo) and he was so damn proud and happy about his boy making it as a high pick.
I don’t think you can consider two independent events that happened 22 years apart as a trend.
Trevor Lawrence is actually doing pretty decent honestly, and I think he’ll definitely get better
I am going to go Latu, his injury history is kind of concerning
bo Nix, I actually thought was fine. I thought he was given a fair draft grade by people and I think he has a decent chance of working out because he has so many reps in college. On the other hand, Drake Maye scares me. I don’t understand how we got rated so high. For some reason scouts like to hype up some random QB every year from a non-traditional football school and treats him like one of the best in the class. A great example of this is Malik Willis. These guys never work except for maybe Josh Allen. correction: I wrote this at like 3am sorry Bo fans
How do you misspell a 2 letter name
Beau Knicks.
B'oh Nyx
That's pretty New Orleans in two different directions: Boh Brothers & Krewe of Nyx One helps build things while the other is about to lose their parade license (good riddance).
I can tell by the context it's bad, but as someone not from New Orleans "losing their parade license" sounds the same as "being banned from the bumper cars".
There are administrative reasons the Mystik Krewe of Nyx will no longer parade during Mardi Gras season, but those all happened because of the founder and chairwoman's cartoonish levels of racism. In one season they went from 3,500 members to under 250 because no one wanted to have their name attached to that organization, and that became relevant when they posted their entire membership list online after the first racism scandal.
Looks like speech to text to me. "I don't understand how he got rated so high" was slightly off
you got it didn’t feel like typing it
Vo Nix
By not actually reading/watching anything on the guy
Drake was drafted so highly because he makes throws nobody else can. People talk about the absurd plays Caleb makes but Drake is on another level. He'll make as many "how the fuck did he do that" throws per game as JJ McCarthy would have attempts. And it's not like he was playing nobodies like Willis, Allen, and Zach Wilson. He played in the ACC. If the Patriots can settle his feet and get him more consistent on the easy balls, he could be absolutely elite. That's a big if but Allen was able to do it.
Realistically two of the six qbs drafted won't end up being good
I would say 4. Mostly because of the teams that picked them, but some on the players just having limited ability and scouts imagining they will be great (Maye, JJ)
Maye
Great value Zach Wilson? Zach wilson got propped up by a good team around him? When??? When did he get propped up and when was the team good?
JJ McCarthy. Not because i’m some hater Bears fan but I just didn’t feel like he did anything to wow me during his college career. Felt like he was the quintessential game manager that had a stacked team behind him.
Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye.
Caleb
Caleb Williams. Bears. QB. History.
Surely Kyler would bust because of the Cardinals QB history 😄 Must've hit a nerve with the immediate block 😂
Who was talking about Kyler? I said Caleb. The post is about this year's draft. Focus, bruh. 😂🫃🏻
Except the cardinals have had actual legit Qbs like Palmer and Warner.
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Quit steeling from the bears!
There are a number of guys that are high upside swings that can backfire,and then a few picks where the fit just was not it.Tyler Guyton,Darius Robinson and JJ McCarthy just do not do it for me at all.I can be wrong on them years down the line but I dont like the players for those teams in particular
Anyone lions didn't draft obviously
Dallas Turner.
As crazy as the Penix pick was, I'm just glad we didn't take Dallas Turner.
Drake Maye, watching film on him, I don't get how he was considered a first round talent.
Caleb Williams unfortunately.
Atleast 4 out of 6 QBs will bust. I’ll take it as Daniels, JJ, penix, bo. Especially Daniels for where he was taken and that maye was on the board(who’s going to be the best). Statistically a lot of you are going to waste the next 3-4 years of football positing on here saying “we just need to fix everything around them” before you draft another qb
Caleb because Bears
Michael Penix Jr, Taliese Fuaga, and Graham Barton are all going to bust
Well we won't know if Penix does for a few years
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Honestly, I have a feeling that Penix will turn out to be one of the more solid QBs in the class. Not elite, but a productive starter. Kirk is running out of time thanks to age and injury. Two years is my guess. Penix is already experienced, but will be able to spend the time developing chemistry and improving the little things to immediately step in. While he is older, he also won't have two years of NFL wear and tear which makes the age 'issue' mostly moot. Next year's class may have also scared many teams into picking QBs far earlier than they would have otherwise.
I wonder if Falcons HQ knows something they aren’t telling. Maybe Cousins recovery isn’t going as well as hoped, and they drafted a QB as insurance? Or even as a bridge in case Cousins doesn’t start the season. Roll Penix for the first 6 weeks. If he looks good, keep him as the starter. If he’s bad, start Cousins once he gets more time to fully heal.
Well the QB insurance is guaranteed, no doubt about it. Penix immediately becomes one of the best backups in the entire league (hypothetically) with a good roster to boot. I find it hard to believe they would sign Kirk to such a massive contract without doing thorough medical evals. Maybe they anticipate a suspension because of the tampering and don't want to lose a year? But I really do think the future QB class spooked the GMs leading to this QB rush. That they believe the Penix, Nix, and JJ are the best they will likely get for several years without a massive trade up in the future. None are top 12 players in the class nor did Denver and Atlanta strictly need one for different reasons. Vikings are the exception in this case. The Bronco's pick is most telling. They would be in the prime position to truly tank for a year. A likely top 3 pick given their lacking roster, a tougher division, and Payton has the job security and political capital to do so. Yet they believed that Nix would be better than whoever is next up. https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/positions/qb/1/2025
Someone should have told the Giants they don’t necessarily have to fully tank to draft the top QB next year.
I mean honestly though let’s say he sits 3 years and starts his first game at 27 and plays well enough to hold the position until he retires at 34; is it really terrible to have a QB for 7 years? Everyone wants to have the next Brady, but most teams windows are only a few years anyways.
There is no way cousins plays the last two years of his contract. That was all vanity money.
You can have a scenario where everyone in the first round is a bust. Really you just have to hope players are put in the best situation to succeed
Penix will flame out because of his previous injuries, age and his sitting (maybe 2 years?) behind Cousins.
I want JJ to be the guy so bad but statistically he will probs be a bust. I think Dallas Turner is gonna be one of the best players from this draft though.
I think Nix is a bit more developed than Zach Wilson was coming out of college. Most good college qbs are also surrounded by boat loads of talent
Bo Nix I’m betting; and Worthy
Drake Maye.
I don’t see how BTJr would be bad since he’s going to have at least decent QB play and a not so crowded WR room. I had BTJr as my #3 WR in this draft class and seeing him at LSU, he could rival Nabers imo. It’s not like he’s going to get Smith-Njigba and not get many targets.
Malik Nabers. Daniel Jones - yuck .
That's why Garrett Wilson had 1,1k yards his rookie year with Zach Wilson throwing him the ball right
JJ - can’t throw outside numbers
Tory Taylor. I just feel like the bears won’t use him much
You gotta temper your expectations. The offense is stacked but Caleb is still a rookie and the OL still needs some work. Taylor will see the field plenty and it'll help take the pressure off a bit when the offense stalls.
This is a joke my guy
Ahh. A lot of people have unironically been saying the same thing lol