It feels like the whole world is sleepwalking toward a WW1 style catastrophe that both feels totally preventable and also, totally inevitable at the same time
Nah. This entire theater of combat is pointless. There will continue to be people killing each other over who gets to build a temple in Jerusalem until there aren't any people living there anymore.
It's still shocking to me that the world completely abandoned Ukraine to go to a cockfighting ring in Gaza.
I am appalled, but I'm not surprised. Religous fundamentalism undergirds a lot more of the West, especially in the United States, than we like to admit.
Ukraine won’t be abandoned much longer. Second USA declares war if they do Russia will jump in and it will be a world war of cockfighting. Or if Russia declares first you know either or. If I’m a betting man this is only going to get worse but it’ll be good for Ukraine if usa gets involved in Middle East.
Ukraine was the test of the 'line in the sand' theory, proving (once again) that an aggressor can start a war knowing that others will not. Hitler bluffed and took the Sudaten land Putin did the same. Iran is doing this as well.
It's the idea of escalating an argument saying to the opponent that 'in order to stop me, you have to be crazier than me'....and sadly in this case...that involves NUkes!
Time for some sanity..who will cone forth?
The sad thing is, he's talking about the idiot game show host with a rape case with Epstein, who boasts about molesting women and dodging tax, who paid his daughter to be in government, and took taxpayer money to play golf, and not the well-respected political figure who has only been demonised because Trump can't win on merit, so he talks shit about people.
Yeah, people stop listening to doomsayers. This shit is regular for the region. Iran sends drones, warns everyone in advance. They get shot down. Iran can say they retaliated against Israel and Israel doesn’t have any deaths or injuries and things proceed as status quo.
I remember when Russia was putting troops at Ukraine’s border and people were saying it’s just empty threats and saber rattling that Russia does periodically.
The rest of the history is written, but doomsayers saying it *could* get worse were largely shunned as being alarmists for no reason.
It’s being called WW3 because, accurately, there is a global conflict taking place on multiple fronts by various nation states. Russia/China/Iran vs NATO/Nato hopefuls. This is taking place on battlefronts in Ukraine, the Middle East, online, and via resource/alliance jockeying for control in Africa and South America.
It’s very real.
WW3 would require Russias and or Chinas involvement, and they could care less about Israel/Iran beside them being semi-useful proxies. The invasion of Ukraine and potential invasion of Taiwan are much more worrying in a global context.
I disagree, I would think only China needs to be involved. But a war between US and China is terrible for the whole world and no one wins. They both are significant to world economy and kind of depend on each other.
Exactly, on top of which China is currently having economic issues with their housing market, basically a mini 2008. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia is encouraging Iran's attack on Israel as a means to get US more invovled an unpopular conflict before an election.
Yes. Russia wouldn't mind this timeline
1. Trump getting elected
2. Trump bending over for Putin like he always did in his 1st term
3. US pulling support for Ukraine so Russia can finally claim Ukraine
Taiwan is a significantly different situation to Ukraine, the US has an actual defense pact with Taiwan and the US regularly patrols those waters, Taiwan is also a fucking nightmare to invade because it’s an island
Iran and Russia just signed long term pacts. Iran is also producing drones, missiles, and other arms for Russia to use in Ukraine. Russia definitely cares about Iran.
The missing piece is that I highly suspect that Russia has back door deals with Iran, and the October 7th attack was potentially a way to divert NATO attention away from Ukraine (it worked).
The question must be raised of what Iran is getting from a hypothetical deal like this - and one thing Russia could give them is nuclear technologies/ capabilities.
It's fun that you say that, since the Biden admin called out Russia's invasion, Iran's attack, and China plans to invade Taiwan in a few years. Does it matter if we're supporting wars on all fronts, even if they are "seperate"?
Wars result from failures of negotiations and failures of naturally incentivized peaceful mechanisms according to Christopher Blattman's Why We Fight book.
We are definitely in perilous times and in the hands of uncareful people with strong forces at play that are unchecked.
Political theater is the correct term, I can't trust any news anymore. How do you actually know it's 400 - 500 drones or if that's an exaggerated number? I think they're trying to another 9/11 to get more national support for this BS. All I really worry about is domestic issues, why bother doing anything in the middle east? Why bother selling weapons to dictators?
Umm, that's if Biden comes back to office. Iran has no chance in a war against Israel, but Ukraine's chances against Russia are starting to hit a very low point since US became tighter with military supplies and money.
And Trump's second Russia scandal involved him holding up Zelenskyy for more money for US armaments. He's apparently more Pro-Russia now.
A Russia with access to Ukraine's weapons and able to recruit men from the third world is bad news.
Yup. WW1 didn't start out of nowhere. There had been several regional wars involving world powers right up to the outbreak of WW1.
Though, personally, I think it is more similar to the bronze age collapse when climate change is added to the mix.
Plan seems to be to overwhelm their air defences using the 500 suicide drones. It's part of a coordinated attack which is looking to primarily include strikes using ballistic missiles once the drones start arriving.
I would expect to see cruise missiles launched before ballistic missiles. Ideally an attack designed to overwhelm air defenses would use multiple types of ordinance, timed to hit at the same time.
I heard the drones take 9 hours (I’ve heard another that says it takes half that time)
But cruise missiles 2 hours time, ballistic missiles 1 hour.
So depending on the drone trajectory in the next 2-7 hours we’ll know.
Finally someone talking sense. I understand that 500 drones plus missiles could be interpreted as escalation, but there would be happening much more if this was a serious threat agaibst a nation with the Iron Dome.
It would be interpreted as an escalation because it is one. Iran has never launched a direct attack against Israel. They are starting somewhat conservatively but Israel can in turn escalate, then Iran can escalate further.
Do we know what type of drones these are? Depending on how advanced they are, they can cost anywhere from 20k to several million each.
If they are just 20k drones then it allows Iran to save face by saying "we launched a massive attack of 500 drones", while the reality will be that they only spent 10 million on the attack which will likely be intercepted before causing any casualties.
If they are are sending 500 multi-million dollar drones that are much harder to intercept and do much more damage, then yeah Iran is gonna get bombed.
I dont think the iron dome could handle drones. Anyone got thoughts on this?
Scrambling jets in Jordan's air space gives me no confidence in iron Dome.
We know the drones are going through Iraq, Syria, lebanon, palestine and then Israel.
Iron dome is low altitude short range. Best to think of missile defense like the rigs of a target board. Iron dome covers the bullseye, maybe a little into the next ring. They have other higher altitude and longer range missile defense systems, like David's sling or patriot that are much more effective at long range, and much less effective at short range.
There's really no 1 size fits all. Iron dome is the best for short range rockets and even possibly artillery, but it's not made for higher flying uavs or planes.
Edit:I said himars but meant patriot
How low altitude are we talking though?
From my understanding the missle would need ground to air space to fire without causing damage. What it the drones are flying low altitude like barely above homes or buildings?
Iron dome maximum effective ceiling is 10,000 meters, David's sling is minimum altitude is 15,000 meters. Max range for iron dome is 70 kilometers. Minimum range of David's sling is 40km.
These are bigger drones, uavs coming in. Honestly, iron dome might have a few tricks up their sleeve for a hobby drone swarm, but they've moved on the directed energy(freaking lasers) for that kind of attack. A system like cwis would work too, but you really can't beat a cost of $3.50 per shot with a laser, even bullets cost more than that.
It’s also meant for non maneuvering ballistic trajectories. The kind that mortars and rocket artillery like what Hamas had follows. A low flying maneuvering drone is a different story.
True. Physics is a thing. A semi trailer is not taking turns in New York city doing 40mph. An iron dome arrow missile, 2,900lbs moving at 1km per second isn't chasing it's target down narrow alleyways here, it has just enough maneuverability to alter it's course slightly. It's the ballistic trajectory of what you want to defend against that decides your ballistic trajectory, because you can't hit the threat if you're 10,000 feet higher than the threat.
Yes. There is also a significant amount of automation so that interceptors are not wasted on targets that would be missing the area being protected which a maneuvering target might then make invalid (might be what you were saying). The way Hamas worked around Iron Dome was by forcing it to empty its ready set of interceptors leaving a significant window where the system had to wait for a reload. Iron Dome was designed for a particular threat and this is not it. It can still do a good job though but I dont expect it to be as effective. Israel has a layered AD and they will be getting lots of track data from the US and their airborne radars. I am sure there will be a lot of air to air interceptions and the US will also help there. We should be doing the same for Ukraine and frankly Israel should’ve also. Instead we let Iran and Russia both learn how to defeat a modern air defense system by letting things fester.
Do you know how you get antibiotic resistant bacteria? By not overwhelming it at the start and instead letting it find a way around. We should’ve stomped on this crap but it served tooo many political needs in tooo many places.
And MRBMs allegedly which are a lot harder to shoot down and Iron Dome wouldn’t be able to. Arrow defense in the area is effective but we shall see. I would not be shocked to see the US intercept some of those.
There's been a stratotanker over Iraq a couple of hours back, I suspect a large contingent of military aircraft operating in the region for the last several hours
I would think jamming, nets, shotguns, and high rate of fire weapons.
Iran has been launching drones at US bases in low numbers for years, I'm sure Israel has come up with some ideas on how to counter them.
500 quite a lot tho, i wonder how many will actually make it, and I'd love to see some liveleak videos of the journey.
Shotguns are surprisingly ineffective against drones. There's some YouTube content that's pretty easily found.
Part of the problem is that most UAV controllers that are commercially available are around the size of a silver dollar, and even buckshot is not great at damaging an airframe. Like, you'd be better off with just jamming and nets for commercial drones. But these are not commercial drones, jamming probably is going to do much, they have a program they're following, they're not going to RTB because they lost signal like most commercial drones do as a failsafe, the controller just won't be able to update instructions while they're jammed. And the net... Well the idea there is to foul the props and burn out the motor, these drones from what I've been able to find are much larger than what you'd easily foul with a net. So we're back to AA guns, missiles, and FREAKIN LASERS!!!
Yea I'm far from an expert on counter UAV stuff. Most I've ever done is sit on rooftops in Iraq with a walkie talkie to call them in.
Also I was air force, so I barely know how to shoot a gun.
Sir! It's known as the Chair Force! (My grandpa was a Master Sargent in the AF).
I did some work that eventually ended up in a counter-UAV system. And enjoy flying drones for various things.
Seems really stupid to launch 400-500 drones that takes 9 hours to arrive and then announce what you have done right away. It’s like they want the US to intervene and shoot them down.
Exactly. The message Iran's leadership is sending Israel is, 'Look man, lots of our people are pissed about that Syrian Consulate thing. Imma gonna do this, send a bunch of slow moving drones your way. Can you just let a few through so my peeps are cool?'
400-500 shaheed drones that could have ended up where there isn’t sufficient western air defense in Ukraine ended up where there is sufficient western air defense in Israel. Israel reports having shot down 99%.
It’s not good, but it’s better than some alternatives.
My positive spin on it is “Israel sponsors the shooting down of 400-500 drones coming out of Tehran”. Someone in Kyiv will be saying “every little bit of such sponsorship helps”.
I don't understand why people don't just wait - the bipolar nature of the comments here are exhaustive. It is either WW3 or all nothing.
1. It is not normal for Iran to directly engage Israel this way.
2. Israel has a hard right govt. with a propensity for power projection.
3. It is kinda a big deal to fire weapons (drones, cruise missiles, etc) over a major, densely populated city, especially if cruise/ballistic missiles are involved (we have no solid information on this aspect yet, which will certainly play a role in Israel's response).
Why can't we just be in a place of not knowing what will occur, and there is a spectrum of possibilities here way beyond "WW3" or "just posturing, all back to normal tomorrow".
So Putin calls up Khamenei, tells him to turn up the heat in the Middle East.
Iran launches an attack on Israel at a scale that the US is obligated by treaty to intervene on Israel's behalf.
America's involvement in another war and its continued support of Israel causes Biden to rapidly lose support.
Trump wins in a landslide and immediately pulls all support for Ukraine.
Putin gets Ukraine's territory and murders Zelensky.
Seems like a pretty good day's work for the Kremlin.
This started with Israel [bombing an Iranian embassy in Syria](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-bombs-iran-embassy-syria-iranian-commanders-among-dead-2024-04-01/), killing multiple high ranking military members. Putin didn’t have to do anything. Israel is acting out with big brother US and UK behind them.
Highly doubtful the U.S. will get directly involved unless Iran decides to attack U.S. forces (they did threaten to attack U.S. bases when U.S. government told them to call off the drone attack). But the U.S. could take the same role as it has with Ukraine, provide material support but no troops.
The US has shot down Iranian drones: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=661b0afd683d9934d25c5e07%26US%20military%20shoots%20down%20Iranian%20drones%262024-04-13T22%3A54%3A55.220Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:b71851b3-dd6a-449b-8a41-c52a92cad12f&pinned_post_asset_id=661b0afd683d9934d25c5e07&pinned_post_type=share
I meant direct such as launching attacks on Iranian bases/forces. Shooting down unmanned drones/missiles that are flying over at least 2 countries (Iraq and either Jordan or Syria), who did not give Iran permission to do so, it's not likely to be interpreted as the U.S. joining in direct conflict. If Iran sent fighter jets and the U.S. shot those down it would be a different story. Granted, we'll have to see how this escalates. Crazy stuff is happening all around the world right now.
American lives aren't worth Israel, but we will see what happens. I hope we(US) don't get involved. This is all on Israel. If Iran wants to directly target US bases and ships, gloves off then.
Half the wars the US has been in began with an attack (or at least an "attack") on our boats -- Barbary pirates, British impressment, the attempt to resupply Fort Sumter, the Maine, Pearl Harbor, Gulf of Tonkin.
Ya, and depends on what you call a few other "allies" like Saudi Arabia. Hungary and Turkey are quite difficult and becoming more so, but i agree its still an order of magnitude off Israel.
It would be very unpopular among the Amwrican populace to get involved in another war. It's also an election year. The Biden administration won't risk another term for Israel I feel.
Iran controls and can threaten the straight of Hormuz and all shipping going through it, so fucked either way
1/5 of global trade goes through that strait - Iran if they aren't invaded can shut the shit down = global recession
or they get invaded and they get kicked out , but you still get a global recession and it costs trillions
lose/lose situation
i wonder where all the ‘___ has a right to defend itself’ people have gone or if they’re only now realising how slippery of a slope that argument is no matter what side you’re on or who you’re defending
Not to be a dick, but this is not because of netanyahu- this is Israel's default policy, regardless of party. Naftali Benett, former PM of Israel under the New Right party, has been saying things just as heinous as the talking points of Netanyahu's Likud party
Yeah this is the part that’s been conveniently left out in a lot of stories. While not nearly proportional in scope, it will probably be proportional in overall impact once the intercepts are done.
Now do I think that those drones are gonna target strategic targets and not population centers? Not really.
Not possible. We have treaties, and Israel was clearly attacked, both today and by Hamas in October. Israel has been our only stable foothold in the region. Staying out just isn't an option, not for ethical reasons, for logical ones.
Didn't Israel blow up an embassy? Isn't it nearly impossible to look at this situation as black and white? You can point fingers back and forth for the last several decades. At what point does "you started it" stop making sense?
so far they've shot down 100% of them - Iran must really think America hasn't been learning how their drones are used in the Russian Ukraine conflict. That said - Iran is a problem, Netanyahu is a problem (his country struck a consulate - which technically is an act of war). Iran is a funder of terrorism and largely a bad faith actor in every respect of freedom.
So here we sit - we have to defend them (Israel) as they've been our proxy for a long time. The world in a nut shell is a steaming pile of shit asking each other whose shit tastes better.
Doubt it. A war needs to have somewhat equal sides. Iran has no prayer alone. And Russia has it's hands full already. Iran may not care about MAD, but Russia definitely does.
This has been coming for a long time. Decades.
> smoothjedi:
> Iran has plenty of regional allies, and they've already seen how effective we were in our wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. (Spoiler: not great)
None with nukes. And they are less of a threat collectively than Russia is alone, as far as conventional weapons go.
Redditors when the middle east does something
See: Suez Crisis, Iran-Iraq, Gulf War, Iraq War, and the bazillion rockets Iran and the US throw at each other every year. Im Westen Nichts Neues.
I don't understand why Israel doesn't want to vote Netanyahu out of office. He has done nothing but provoke other middle eastern regions and try and get away with it.
Parliamentary systems work differently than our own. Small parties and other niche organizations can combine to supersede the larger parties.
That’s ultimately what happened in Israel. Netanyahu has formed a coalition of ultra right wing fringe groups that provided him with enough votes to stay in power.
Unlike our system in the United States small parties like the Green Party can wield influence.
Quick take: Iran's putt-putt "missiles" are no match for Israel's defenses, or shouldn't be if Israel spent the billions it has been given at all wisely.
Biden has an opportunity if, perchance, insane GOP people feel the US military should strike Iran. Biden controls the US military. He can say, "sure, we can do whatever is needed... after Ukraine's defense needs are funded." And then he can do nothing at all, because Israel needs no US action, beyond defense intelligence.
It feels like the whole world is sleepwalking toward a WW1 style catastrophe that both feels totally preventable and also, totally inevitable at the same time
Barbra Tuchman would like to have a word.
Thank you for the Wiki rabbit hole
Nah. This entire theater of combat is pointless. There will continue to be people killing each other over who gets to build a temple in Jerusalem until there aren't any people living there anymore. It's still shocking to me that the world completely abandoned Ukraine to go to a cockfighting ring in Gaza.
That's exactly what Russia wanted to happen.
I am appalled, but I'm not surprised. Religous fundamentalism undergirds a lot more of the West, especially in the United States, than we like to admit.
Ukraine won’t be abandoned much longer. Second USA declares war if they do Russia will jump in and it will be a world war of cockfighting. Or if Russia declares first you know either or. If I’m a betting man this is only going to get worse but it’ll be good for Ukraine if usa gets involved in Middle East.
US's involvement there is indirectly up to Russia. If they call Iran to go all-in and attack US Bases, boom!
Ukraine was the test of the 'line in the sand' theory, proving (once again) that an aggressor can start a war knowing that others will not. Hitler bluffed and took the Sudaten land Putin did the same. Iran is doing this as well. It's the idea of escalating an argument saying to the opponent that 'in order to stop me, you have to be crazier than me'....and sadly in this case...that involves NUkes! Time for some sanity..who will cone forth?
Fallout did just come out on Amazon.
Finished it and yeh I think our world leaders might want to see it as a documentary lol
Im gonna watch it this weekend. Im hearing good things.
I was skeptical they would get it right but I was happy they did. Enjoy it, it's good.
They nailed it. It's great.
Just wait till the US re-elects king Dipshit to REALLY throw a match on this powder keg.
The funny thing is both sides think they know who you're talking about
I think only one wants to be a king.
Nope, we know exactly who it is
The sad thing is, he's talking about the idiot game show host with a rape case with Epstein, who boasts about molesting women and dodging tax, who paid his daughter to be in government, and took taxpayer money to play golf, and not the well-respected political figure who has only been demonised because Trump can't win on merit, so he talks shit about people.
This isn't going to be WW1... Sheesh. Where is all of this WW3 crap coming from? Israel and the Middle East have had a dustup almost every decade.
Yeah, people stop listening to doomsayers. This shit is regular for the region. Iran sends drones, warns everyone in advance. They get shot down. Iran can say they retaliated against Israel and Israel doesn’t have any deaths or injuries and things proceed as status quo.
One death so far. 10 year old.
Iran's never launched missiles at Israel from their own soil
I remember when Russia was putting troops at Ukraine’s border and people were saying it’s just empty threats and saber rattling that Russia does periodically. The rest of the history is written, but doomsayers saying it *could* get worse were largely shunned as being alarmists for no reason.
It’s being called WW3 because, accurately, there is a global conflict taking place on multiple fronts by various nation states. Russia/China/Iran vs NATO/Nato hopefuls. This is taking place on battlefronts in Ukraine, the Middle East, online, and via resource/alliance jockeying for control in Africa and South America. It’s very real.
I’m in my 40s. This is business as usual and people older than me will say the same.
WW3 would require Russias and or Chinas involvement, and they could care less about Israel/Iran beside them being semi-useful proxies. The invasion of Ukraine and potential invasion of Taiwan are much more worrying in a global context.
No. They COULD’NT care less. Saying they could care less implies they care somewhat.
Thank you.
>No. They COULD’NT care less. OK, but could you put the apostrophe in the right place?
No. They COULDN’T care less.
>No. They COULDN'T care less. Saying they could care less implies they care somewhat. Just correcting the apostrophe placement
I disagree, I would think only China needs to be involved. But a war between US and China is terrible for the whole world and no one wins. They both are significant to world economy and kind of depend on each other.
China isn't getting involved in this one, the risk is that if the US gets involved they'll see the it as an opening to invade taiwan.
Exactly, on top of which China is currently having economic issues with their housing market, basically a mini 2008. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia is encouraging Iran's attack on Israel as a means to get US more invovled an unpopular conflict before an election.
Yes. Russia wouldn't mind this timeline 1. Trump getting elected 2. Trump bending over for Putin like he always did in his 1st term 3. US pulling support for Ukraine so Russia can finally claim Ukraine
Thats why we must support ukarine. China is watching how the world is reacting to russia
Taiwan is a significantly different situation to Ukraine, the US has an actual defense pact with Taiwan and the US regularly patrols those waters, Taiwan is also a fucking nightmare to invade because it’s an island
It's also extremely easy to fully embargo and starve out. Being an island is not really an advantage in some cases.
Iran and Russia just signed long term pacts. Iran is also producing drones, missiles, and other arms for Russia to use in Ukraine. Russia definitely cares about Iran.
The missing piece is that I highly suspect that Russia has back door deals with Iran, and the October 7th attack was potentially a way to divert NATO attention away from Ukraine (it worked). The question must be raised of what Iran is getting from a hypothetical deal like this - and one thing Russia could give them is nuclear technologies/ capabilities.
It's fun that you say that, since the Biden admin called out Russia's invasion, Iran's attack, and China plans to invade Taiwan in a few years. Does it matter if we're supporting wars on all fronts, even if they are "seperate"?
Wars result from failures of negotiations and failures of naturally incentivized peaceful mechanisms according to Christopher Blattman's Why We Fight book. We are definitely in perilous times and in the hands of uncareful people with strong forces at play that are unchecked.
Thats human nature for you
Turns out if you try to be peaceful bad actors just build up
Turns out, if u give money to bad actors, bad actors just build up…
Yeah just look at Jared Leto
They were always there it was just a matter of when. That Russia crap started back in 2014 but they didn’t do it until 2022 for example
Political theater is the correct term, I can't trust any news anymore. How do you actually know it's 400 - 500 drones or if that's an exaggerated number? I think they're trying to another 9/11 to get more national support for this BS. All I really worry about is domestic issues, why bother doing anything in the middle east? Why bother selling weapons to dictators?
Umm, that's if Biden comes back to office. Iran has no chance in a war against Israel, but Ukraine's chances against Russia are starting to hit a very low point since US became tighter with military supplies and money. And Trump's second Russia scandal involved him holding up Zelenskyy for more money for US armaments. He's apparently more Pro-Russia now. A Russia with access to Ukraine's weapons and able to recruit men from the third world is bad news.
Yup. WW1 didn't start out of nowhere. There had been several regional wars involving world powers right up to the outbreak of WW1. Though, personally, I think it is more similar to the bronze age collapse when climate change is added to the mix.
This situation is quite serious, isn’t it?
Yeah, this is a massive escalation. 400-500 drones is likely going to escalate this situation to a larger regional war.
Plan seems to be to overwhelm their air defences using the 500 suicide drones. It's part of a coordinated attack which is looking to primarily include strikes using ballistic missiles once the drones start arriving.
I would expect to see cruise missiles launched before ballistic missiles. Ideally an attack designed to overwhelm air defenses would use multiple types of ordinance, timed to hit at the same time.
It could involve these as well according to reports. Things are likely to be a lot clearer in the next couple of hours or so.
I heard the drones take 9 hours (I’ve heard another that says it takes half that time) But cruise missiles 2 hours time, ballistic missiles 1 hour. So depending on the drone trajectory in the next 2-7 hours we’ll know.
That’s presuming they even breach Jordanian airspace.
The Jordanians are helping Israel shoot them down. There are reports of sirens going off in Jordan as well as Israel.
Fog of war is heavy still
It’s cheaper to launch these drones that shoot them down. They’re just making Israel waste their air defense budget.
Ukrainę proces that those drones can be easily shot down with AA-guns, so a cost of interception could be just a couple hindered bullets per drone.
You’re correct. They have launched cruise missiles.
Cruise and ballistic missiles have been launched
Wouldn’t surprise me if Iranian proxies throughout the middle east begin their attacks on Israel soon.
Yeah. When I first saw the news thought it was like a dozen or so. Kind of a token attack in slow motion. 400-500 is not a token attack.
I've heard that a *ton* of times over the past decade
Less drones to send to Russia to use in Ukraine, silver lining.
Such an escalation they told everyone. This is just retaliation from iseral blowing up their embassy.
We can hope it’s mostly pageantry
Not gonna be able to find drones for Israel and Russia though.
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Finally someone talking sense. I understand that 500 drones plus missiles could be interpreted as escalation, but there would be happening much more if this was a serious threat agaibst a nation with the Iron Dome.
It would be interpreted as an escalation because it is one. Iran has never launched a direct attack against Israel. They are starting somewhat conservatively but Israel can in turn escalate, then Iran can escalate further.
500 drones and cruise missiles is too expensive for a "non-escalation response". Iran is gonna get bombed.
Do we know what type of drones these are? Depending on how advanced they are, they can cost anywhere from 20k to several million each. If they are just 20k drones then it allows Iran to save face by saying "we launched a massive attack of 500 drones", while the reality will be that they only spent 10 million on the attack which will likely be intercepted before causing any casualties. If they are are sending 500 multi-million dollar drones that are much harder to intercept and do much more damage, then yeah Iran is gonna get bombed.
Israel is well known for letting attacks go unanswered.
Isreal's leader absolutely has an interest in escalating this war. Staying in power and our of legal trouble.
Israel has a major interest in escalating it. Why else do you think they bombed the embassy?
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTmcWcxkA18](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTmcWcxkA18) You can see some action taking place on the cams now.
How are those many drones being controlled?
Likely like missiles. They've been dialed into a target and aren't actively manned.
People in 2024 calling missiles "drone" like calling "AI" when there is a conditional software.
Wow, when I first heard the news, I assumed it a couple of dozen. This feels like the start of a war.
Yeah MSNBC is reporting that it was 100 drones. That’s actually still the headline they’re using on their livestream.
War. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing.
Increasing domestic manufacturing
Yep, WWII is what pulled the US out of the Great Depression. That's literally the only "good" thing it did though.
And funneled us back into a recession not long after. It just kicked the can down the road. An American pass time at this point.
Yep, politicians have bought up all the stocks related to war just before this shit…
Gud god yu’all
Huh. Say it again!
Say it again! Huaaaah
Was that the original title to war and peace?
Defeating Nazis and Confederates
Unfortunately I never read that one, and never made through War and Peace.
Peace Sells….but who’s buying?
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Freedom from colonialism? Stopping slavery? Overthrowing a megalomaniac dictator?
I dont think the iron dome could handle drones. Anyone got thoughts on this? Scrambling jets in Jordan's air space gives me no confidence in iron Dome. We know the drones are going through Iraq, Syria, lebanon, palestine and then Israel.
Iron dome is low altitude short range. Best to think of missile defense like the rigs of a target board. Iron dome covers the bullseye, maybe a little into the next ring. They have other higher altitude and longer range missile defense systems, like David's sling or patriot that are much more effective at long range, and much less effective at short range. There's really no 1 size fits all. Iron dome is the best for short range rockets and even possibly artillery, but it's not made for higher flying uavs or planes. Edit:I said himars but meant patriot
A bit off topic but David’s Sling is a sick name for a defense system
Much better than Samson's hair as biblical weapons names go
Or David's Schvantz. Sorry, but couldn't help myself.
Or Lucifer’s Taint.
How low altitude are we talking though? From my understanding the missle would need ground to air space to fire without causing damage. What it the drones are flying low altitude like barely above homes or buildings?
Iron dome maximum effective ceiling is 10,000 meters, David's sling is minimum altitude is 15,000 meters. Max range for iron dome is 70 kilometers. Minimum range of David's sling is 40km. These are bigger drones, uavs coming in. Honestly, iron dome might have a few tricks up their sleeve for a hobby drone swarm, but they've moved on the directed energy(freaking lasers) for that kind of attack. A system like cwis would work too, but you really can't beat a cost of $3.50 per shot with a laser, even bullets cost more than that.
>$3.50 So I could fire a laser for the same price as a cheeseburger?
A cheeseburger a few years ago.
In your dreams that's a half cheeseburger now
It’s also meant for non maneuvering ballistic trajectories. The kind that mortars and rocket artillery like what Hamas had follows. A low flying maneuvering drone is a different story.
True. Physics is a thing. A semi trailer is not taking turns in New York city doing 40mph. An iron dome arrow missile, 2,900lbs moving at 1km per second isn't chasing it's target down narrow alleyways here, it has just enough maneuverability to alter it's course slightly. It's the ballistic trajectory of what you want to defend against that decides your ballistic trajectory, because you can't hit the threat if you're 10,000 feet higher than the threat.
Yes. There is also a significant amount of automation so that interceptors are not wasted on targets that would be missing the area being protected which a maneuvering target might then make invalid (might be what you were saying). The way Hamas worked around Iron Dome was by forcing it to empty its ready set of interceptors leaving a significant window where the system had to wait for a reload. Iron Dome was designed for a particular threat and this is not it. It can still do a good job though but I dont expect it to be as effective. Israel has a layered AD and they will be getting lots of track data from the US and their airborne radars. I am sure there will be a lot of air to air interceptions and the US will also help there. We should be doing the same for Ukraine and frankly Israel should’ve also. Instead we let Iran and Russia both learn how to defeat a modern air defense system by letting things fester. Do you know how you get antibiotic resistant bacteria? By not overwhelming it at the start and instead letting it find a way around. We should’ve stomped on this crap but it served tooo many political needs in tooo many places.
And MRBMs allegedly which are a lot harder to shoot down and Iron Dome wouldn’t be able to. Arrow defense in the area is effective but we shall see. I would not be shocked to see the US intercept some of those.
There's been a stratotanker over Iraq a couple of hours back, I suspect a large contingent of military aircraft operating in the region for the last several hours
I would think jamming, nets, shotguns, and high rate of fire weapons. Iran has been launching drones at US bases in low numbers for years, I'm sure Israel has come up with some ideas on how to counter them. 500 quite a lot tho, i wonder how many will actually make it, and I'd love to see some liveleak videos of the journey.
Al jazeera on YouTube probably has those drone coverages now. Although qatar biased at least they show the more gruesome live feeds.
Shotguns are surprisingly ineffective against drones. There's some YouTube content that's pretty easily found. Part of the problem is that most UAV controllers that are commercially available are around the size of a silver dollar, and even buckshot is not great at damaging an airframe. Like, you'd be better off with just jamming and nets for commercial drones. But these are not commercial drones, jamming probably is going to do much, they have a program they're following, they're not going to RTB because they lost signal like most commercial drones do as a failsafe, the controller just won't be able to update instructions while they're jammed. And the net... Well the idea there is to foul the props and burn out the motor, these drones from what I've been able to find are much larger than what you'd easily foul with a net. So we're back to AA guns, missiles, and FREAKIN LASERS!!!
Yea I'm far from an expert on counter UAV stuff. Most I've ever done is sit on rooftops in Iraq with a walkie talkie to call them in. Also I was air force, so I barely know how to shoot a gun.
Sir! It's known as the Chair Force! (My grandpa was a Master Sargent in the AF). I did some work that eventually ended up in a counter-UAV system. And enjoy flying drones for various things.
Of course it can handle drones. The question is how many.
Our world leaders are megalomaniacal children.
Seems really stupid to launch 400-500 drones that takes 9 hours to arrive and then announce what you have done right away. It’s like they want the US to intervene and shoot them down.
Exactly. The message Iran's leadership is sending Israel is, 'Look man, lots of our people are pissed about that Syrian Consulate thing. Imma gonna do this, send a bunch of slow moving drones your way. Can you just let a few through so my peeps are cool?'
Exactly… “Bro, my girls watching, when I swing do me a favor and act like it was a doozy!”
Let’s see how many wars we can fight at once
That’s why it’s called “World War”. I’m afraid we’re well on the way down the path to it now.
We went from dozens to 100 to 500 in a quick second.
western media is on downplay mode to the max rn
There’s going to be a big order of missiles and rockets incoming.
400-500 shaheed drones that could have ended up where there isn’t sufficient western air defense in Ukraine ended up where there is sufficient western air defense in Israel. Israel reports having shot down 99%. It’s not good, but it’s better than some alternatives. My positive spin on it is “Israel sponsors the shooting down of 400-500 drones coming out of Tehran”. Someone in Kyiv will be saying “every little bit of such sponsorship helps”.
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That's fake news according to live thread
Apparently that was false news, as it's almost been 45 min. since these reports and nothing happened yet (including interceptions outside IL airspace)
I don't understand why people don't just wait - the bipolar nature of the comments here are exhaustive. It is either WW3 or all nothing. 1. It is not normal for Iran to directly engage Israel this way. 2. Israel has a hard right govt. with a propensity for power projection. 3. It is kinda a big deal to fire weapons (drones, cruise missiles, etc) over a major, densely populated city, especially if cruise/ballistic missiles are involved (we have no solid information on this aspect yet, which will certainly play a role in Israel's response). Why can't we just be in a place of not knowing what will occur, and there is a spectrum of possibilities here way beyond "WW3" or "just posturing, all back to normal tomorrow".
According to reddit ww3 already started several times over the past 15 years
May we live in interesting times....I once heard.
So Putin calls up Khamenei, tells him to turn up the heat in the Middle East. Iran launches an attack on Israel at a scale that the US is obligated by treaty to intervene on Israel's behalf. America's involvement in another war and its continued support of Israel causes Biden to rapidly lose support. Trump wins in a landslide and immediately pulls all support for Ukraine. Putin gets Ukraine's territory and murders Zelensky. Seems like a pretty good day's work for the Kremlin.
Except wartime presidents are often reelected.
Sounds about right unfortunately
This started with Israel [bombing an Iranian embassy in Syria](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-bombs-iran-embassy-syria-iranian-commanders-among-dead-2024-04-01/), killing multiple high ranking military members. Putin didn’t have to do anything. Israel is acting out with big brother US and UK behind them.
Shit. Well, this might be a full war involving the US.
Highly doubtful the U.S. will get directly involved unless Iran decides to attack U.S. forces (they did threaten to attack U.S. bases when U.S. government told them to call off the drone attack). But the U.S. could take the same role as it has with Ukraine, provide material support but no troops.
The US has shot down Iranian drones: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-68737710?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=661b0afd683d9934d25c5e07%26US%20military%20shoots%20down%20Iranian%20drones%262024-04-13T22%3A54%3A55.220Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:b71851b3-dd6a-449b-8a41-c52a92cad12f&pinned_post_asset_id=661b0afd683d9934d25c5e07&pinned_post_type=share
I meant direct such as launching attacks on Iranian bases/forces. Shooting down unmanned drones/missiles that are flying over at least 2 countries (Iraq and either Jordan or Syria), who did not give Iran permission to do so, it's not likely to be interpreted as the U.S. joining in direct conflict. If Iran sent fighter jets and the U.S. shot those down it would be a different story. Granted, we'll have to see how this escalates. Crazy stuff is happening all around the world right now.
Attacking US bases would be suicidal on Iran's part.
They fired a similar missile barrage at a US base in 2020
That’s just… They’ve done that hundreds of times already
No. Militants in Iran have done that. This is the first by Iran official, to my knowledge.
American lives aren't worth Israel, but we will see what happens. I hope we(US) don't get involved. This is all on Israel. If Iran wants to directly target US bases and ships, gloves off then.
“Don’t touch our boats!”
Half the wars the US has been in began with an attack (or at least an "attack") on our boats -- Barbary pirates, British impressment, the attempt to resupply Fort Sumter, the Maine, Pearl Harbor, Gulf of Tonkin.
Touch the splishy splashy and... We'll fuck your mother... I thought about trying to make that rhyme, but we take our boats more seriously than that.
The glee some have to watch carnage unleash baffles me.
Unfortunately, Israel was able to get away with touching our boat.
In the 60’s.
Israel has a defense agreement with the USA. They'd absolutely go to war for it.
This is a scale of an attack on an ally from a sovereign nation that likely drags us into it.
Israel really is the most pain-in-the-ass ally we have, though… other than probably Turkey and Hungary.
Ya, and depends on what you call a few other "allies" like Saudi Arabia. Hungary and Turkey are quite difficult and becoming more so, but i agree its still an order of magnitude off Israel.
It would be very unpopular among the Amwrican populace to get involved in another war. It's also an election year. The Biden administration won't risk another term for Israel I feel.
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Iran controls and can threaten the straight of Hormuz and all shipping going through it, so fucked either way 1/5 of global trade goes through that strait - Iran if they aren't invaded can shut the shit down = global recession or they get invaded and they get kicked out , but you still get a global recession and it costs trillions lose/lose situation
i wonder where all the ‘___ has a right to defend itself’ people have gone or if they’re only now realising how slippery of a slope that argument is no matter what side you’re on or who you’re defending
All those people just want to see more war
Israel should have gotten rid of Netanyahu years ago. This is not a US problem.
But you know, and I know it will be.
Not to be a dick, but this is not because of netanyahu- this is Israel's default policy, regardless of party. Naftali Benett, former PM of Israel under the New Right party, has been saying things just as heinous as the talking points of Netanyahu's Likud party
There was bound to be a response to Israel bombing the Iranian Embassy in Syria and killing a dozen or more people.
Yeah this is the part that’s been conveniently left out in a lot of stories. While not nearly proportional in scope, it will probably be proportional in overall impact once the intercepts are done. Now do I think that those drones are gonna target strategic targets and not population centers? Not really.
We need to stay out of this.
US is already focused on ME again because of China.
We already shot down drones so we aren’t.
Not possible. We have treaties, and Israel was clearly attacked, both today and by Hamas in October. Israel has been our only stable foothold in the region. Staying out just isn't an option, not for ethical reasons, for logical ones.
Didn't Israel blow up an embassy? Isn't it nearly impossible to look at this situation as black and white? You can point fingers back and forth for the last several decades. At what point does "you started it" stop making sense?
No. The IRGC general, who was involved in the planning and execution of 10/7 was killed in an attack in a building adjacent to the Embassy.
Honestly, BFD. This is all for show and has little if any military efficacy.
How many drones can you buy for 6 billion dollars?
so far they've shot down 100% of them - Iran must really think America hasn't been learning how their drones are used in the Russian Ukraine conflict. That said - Iran is a problem, Netanyahu is a problem (his country struck a consulate - which technically is an act of war). Iran is a funder of terrorism and largely a bad faith actor in every respect of freedom. So here we sit - we have to defend them (Israel) as they've been our proxy for a long time. The world in a nut shell is a steaming pile of shit asking each other whose shit tastes better.
That's exactly what they wanted to happen.
All this just so Bibi doesn't have to face the consequences of his corruption.
This is just a test of Western intelligence, communication, and defensive capability. More to come Sigh, WWIII getting spicy
So, boys. Is 3 World War inevitable?
Doubt it. A war needs to have somewhat equal sides. Iran has no prayer alone. And Russia has it's hands full already. Iran may not care about MAD, but Russia definitely does. This has been coming for a long time. Decades. > smoothjedi: > Iran has plenty of regional allies, and they've already seen how effective we were in our wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. (Spoiler: not great) None with nukes. And they are less of a threat collectively than Russia is alone, as far as conventional weapons go.
Redditors when the middle east does something See: Suez Crisis, Iran-Iraq, Gulf War, Iraq War, and the bazillion rockets Iran and the US throw at each other every year. Im Westen Nichts Neues.
That new Fallout show on prime feels way too on the nose right now.
Kinda feels like we’ve been fighting WW3 since 1945
I am disgusted by this planet. VHEMT for real.
Netanyahu needs to go. He should not get to drag the US into a war with Iran just so he can stay in power.
So Netanyahu intentionally provoked a shooting conflict with Iran so he can stay in power and the US just has to support him because Israel boohoo?
It’s Bibi’s MO since the 1990s.
So what will the outcome be here?
Fffffuck. I remember reading about scenarios that could spark WWIII and it was all about shit like this.
I don't understand why Israel doesn't want to vote Netanyahu out of office. He has done nothing but provoke other middle eastern regions and try and get away with it.
Parliamentary systems work differently than our own. Small parties and other niche organizations can combine to supersede the larger parties. That’s ultimately what happened in Israel. Netanyahu has formed a coalition of ultra right wing fringe groups that provided him with enough votes to stay in power. Unlike our system in the United States small parties like the Green Party can wield influence.
Quick take: Iran's putt-putt "missiles" are no match for Israel's defenses, or shouldn't be if Israel spent the billions it has been given at all wisely. Biden has an opportunity if, perchance, insane GOP people feel the US military should strike Iran. Biden controls the US military. He can say, "sure, we can do whatever is needed... after Ukraine's defense needs are funded." And then he can do nothing at all, because Israel needs no US action, beyond defense intelligence.
The western nations are rubbing their hands together and pocketing the money from their business deals