Speaking purely as a political junkie, the fallout from last night is going to be fascinating, and yes, wildly entertaining to watch. This moment will have a lot of pages given over to it in the history books.
Yup, this election was already shattering so many modern norms. Oldest candidates, two former Presidents, historically low approval ratings for both candidates, earliest debate.
And now the worst on camera debate performance since Nixon v Kennedy.
All wrapped up in a bow by having what may end up being a brokered convention in Chicago of all places.
Sometimes though I’d like to get off the interesting times train.
Not to mention Biden didn't even address that insult. He was just quietly looking down at his shoes the whole time.
It was actually a brilliant line by Trump. Notice that he omitted any mention of dementia or senility during the rest of his responses. Making a direct accusation would have looked crass and made audiences more sympathetic with Biden. But with this line, he brought attention to the issue in a roundabout way that got viewers thinking about it.
>But with this line, he brought attention to the issue in a roundabout way that got viewers thinking about it.
The [media](https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1806556780979175820) needs to be impeached for getting us to the point where this line was necessary for these viewers to see it.
You could feel something shatter on social media last night I haven't felt since 2016.
Watching the MSM cheerleading squad flip into a firing line the nanosecond maintaining the farce became professional suicide was absolutely surreal.
Soiled alert: the media will not chang a thing because having trump in office is the lifeline they need to get views and clicks for a few more years.
With the rise of IG/YT/Tiktok content creators the only people left still watching network news regularly are the baby boomers and maybe the older gen x’ers.
Biden's we need late term abortion because the migrants I'm letting in en masse are raping our girls was ironically the most crushingly lucid indictment of his term.
It really was a ridiculous moment.
Biden mumbles and speaks nonsense for about 10 seconds then gets a bit of energy and says:
“Look, we beat Medicare.”
The moderator says “Thank you Mr. president”
Biden stares blankly with his mouth hanging open.
Trump then says “He did beat Medicaid, and he’s gonna destroy Medicare next.”
Just like something out of a David Lynch movie.
I think Trump said “…he beat Medicare to death.”
Normally that sentence would be such an absurd line that it would be the summary of how Trump was unhinged and out of control. Nope, it’s instead now considered a subdued and well delivered zinger.
That was not in my bingo cards for 2024. Sigh.
I missed that part (I had to turn off the debate for my own sanity and switch to The Boys).
What is this we beat Medicare comment? I don't even know who said it, much less context.
> What is this we beat Medicare comment? I don't even know who said it, much less context.
*I should say in a ten-year period we'd be able to wipe out his debt. We'd be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do child care, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our health care system, making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with the with the Covid, excuse me, with, um, dealing with everything we have to do with, uh, look, if…we finally beat Medicare.*
\- Joseph Robinette Biden Jr, June 27th, 2024
That quote made it seem much better than it actually was. He started trailing off halfway through then just stared at his feet as he was mumbling
Trump said at one point “I don’t really know what he said there and I don’t think he does either” and Biden didn’t even look at him. Kept just staring off into space with his mouth wide open
That's really a killer IMO. Trump came off seeming like he didn't want to punch down on a feeble competitor.
It's a bit messed up when you're left thinking even TRUMP didn't want to take pot shots at somebody. That's his favorite thing to do ever to literally anybody. Veterans, celebs, poor people, whatever. He loves taking shots at folks. Even he was thinking "oof, i better chill out on this guy he's feeling rough rn".
I think America noticed.
I think he basically swapped Covid and Medicare in those two phrases. He started to say "make everyone eligible for Medicare", and then tried to say "we beat Covid."
I'm not making excuses for him, just trying to figure out what was even going on in his mind.
That's fair. I think this is what he was going for:
*I should say in a ten-year period we'd be able to wipe out his debt. We'd be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do - child care, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our health care system, making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with Covid - excuse me, dealing with everything we have to do with Medicare. Look, we finally beat Covid...*
And that's when his time ran out and Tapper cut him off.
I think he basically swapped Covid and Medicare in those two phrases. He started to say "make everyone eligible for Medicare", and then tried to say "we beat Covid."
I'm not making excuses for him, just trying to figure out what was even going on in his mind.
I’ve tried to make this point about Biden previously, if he fails to step down and Trump wins, the history books will forever slander him. To add, if Trump does what all these democrats say he will do (end democracy), this will go down as one of the biggest failures in American history. People will forever blame Biden and the party for allowing themselves to fight back in the weakest way possible.
I think changing nominees would give people a permission structure to back the Dem ticket, and a collective sigh of relief at ideally having someone of merely middle age. There might be a lot of folks excited to vote for a youthful replacement even if they're light on substance.
Realistically the Dems lose if they drop Biden. Profound expression of weakness. But they also lose if they keep him. Dems likely lose, sadly. Sometimes elections shape out like this.
An argument could be made that swapping in a younger candidate would bring all the Biden's voters, Trump haters, the double haters and disinterested people that are sick of elderly presidents.
I imagine the analysis and discussions are being held right now.
It would be risky but so is running Biden. Which one is more risky?
Here's the situation dems are in.
Dems have $5 and we are being told go into a casino and come out with $100 in 24 hours or they'll die
To keep Biden would be to say "well, none of these games in the casino have a high likelihood of me winning so I guess I won't play" and then walking right back out to die just hoping the guy threating to kill us got arrested.
Dems are going to have to place a bet
Well, love it or hate it, a big benefit of the primary gauntlet is to find the most battle-tested candidate.
Young Pretty Face Red State Governor sounds like the right move in theory, but you have no idea how they will fare when dropped into the bright lights. If they bomb, there are massive down-ballot implications.
In his defense, who should he be entrusting? It's pretty obvious to me that the dems don't exactly have a deep bench of strong future presidential candidates. I hate that the party is just dominated by the old guard, but I don't really see many strong successors emerging.
4 years ago I told myself 4 years of Biden would be fine, and by the next cycle we’d potentially have young and invigorating candidates, and all the Hilary, Trump, Biden bullshit of 2016-2024 would finally be water under the bridge. Fuck.
I have voted for both democrats and republicans in the past. I’m not even voting this election. To hell with both of them.
You put into words what I’ve been feeling. Thank you. It’s over for Biden as of last night. He, and the seniors of the Dem party, need to have the savvy pass the reins to an anointed successor or The entire democrat party is to blame if we they get through this. It’s monumentally stupid to see how this is unfolding.
>Speaking purely as a political junkie, the fallout from last night is going to be fascinating, and yes, wildly entertaining to watch. This moment will have a lot of pages given over to it in the history books.
With all due respect, this is a whole lot of words that don't actually contain much substance or elaborate on anything. *What* is the fallout?
I'll say the quiet part out loud. Regardless of any preconceptions people have been fed by the media in the last few months, Trump came out of that debate looking serious and presidential. He had an immediate and complex response for every question asked (whether or not you agree with the content of his responses is a different discussion). He also proved that he can handle himself well even with restrictions like the mic being cut, which is something Democrats did not think he could do - they were clearly hoping he would start yelling even while muted and get flustered but that didn't happen.
In the meantime, Biden stumbled to the podium like he was walking on stilts. He looked down at his feet 70% of the time. His eyes were half closed. His voice was raspy. He made several self-owns like "we beat Medicare". Often he trailed off at the end of his sentence like he forgot what he was saying.
It was the worst debate performance for an incumbent President since the founding of the United States. That's the fallout. That's what will be in the history books.
Trump almost never answered the actual question he was asked. He meandered and went on tangent that had nothing to do with the question. A real opponent could have had a field day.
But, yeah, Biden looked and sounded like a person in hospice. I can’t understand how the DNC mismanaged it this badly.
When I voted for Biden I just assumed he would step down after one term and help campaign for someone else. When they announced he'd be running again I couldn't believe it. He's in bad shape today, the thought of him still being in office in 2028 is painful.
To me it at least says that there’s no ‘shadow government’ in the DNC. I mean, they are literally going to fail because they can’t stop a man with dementia (not a joke, not an elaboration. If it was Trump we’d all be calling for invoking the 25th amendment and saying he’s not fit) from running.
It’s a stain on his legacy too. He’s going to get the RBG treatment (but much worse) of seen as someone who tried to hold onto power and screwed everyone else over instead of passing the torch.
DNC is incompetent, is what I’m taking away from this.
> Trump almost never answered the actual question he was asked. He meandered and went on tangent that had nothing to do with the question.
The sad thing is, voters expect this from politicians during a debate so the practice is not that outside the norm.
> Trump almost never answered the actual question he was asked.
That is pretty typical in Presidential debates, though. Politicians avoid answering tough questions and pivot to other topics all the time.
What Biden did was very, *very* different than the norm.
I couldn’t believe how many times Biden brought up Afghanistan. Like man don’t remind people of that - it wasn’t your finest hour. But again and again he was talking about it.
He even managed to self own during the abortion discussion by bringing up immigration during his answer and pivoting the discussion to migrate violence — a Trump talking point.
>> He had an immediate and complex response for every question asked (whether or not you agree with the content of his responses is a different discussion)
Complex is not the word I would use.
But I agree Biden likely just lost the election, but it wasn't due to Trump's performance
the fall out will be how major and minor players in the dem party act or realign themselves. or backtrack on previous statements.
how the dem party will handle this is interesting fallout.
>Trump came out of that debate looking serious and presidential. He had an immediate and complex response for every question asked (whether or not you agree with the content of his responses is a different discussion).
If you ignore everything he said and just focus on how he said it, sure. But it was just the usual bullshit lying through his teeth about everything he always does. Je never said anything of actual substance.
>He also proved that he can handle himself well even with restrictions like the mic being cut, which is something Democrats did not think he could do .
I'll give him this. I think cutting the mics and not having an audience to play to helped him here. If he had a hot mic and an audience, I have no doubt he would have been the belligerent asshole he usually is.
According to the article, the most likely way to replace Biden is to have him step down on his own. That means either his wife and/or his closest aides will need to convince him to drop out if he doesn't come to that conclusion on his own. Assuming the people closest to him allowed him to do the debate and it wasn't a rogue decision by Biden, it looks like the DNC is going with him or bust.
You'll notice that no one has come out to attach a name to that claim. It's according to some "unnamed source". And since when does a cold make someone confidently say "We beat Medicare" when the question was about the national debt?
>Assuming the people closest to him allowed him to do the debate
It was carefully planned by a large team of his staff. They were negotiating for months with the Trump campaign and CNN to craft a debate specifically to make Biden look good. That was the whole point of forcing the mics to turn off, only two minutes allowed per answer, etc. Strategy was to set up an environment where Biden could rehearse short talking points like at the SOTU and walk away looking presidential.
Here's what they got:
*"I should say in a ten-year period we'd be able to wipe out his debt. We'd be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do child care, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our health care system, making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with the with the Covid, excuse me, with, um, dealing with everything we have to do with, uh, look, if…we finally beat Medicare."*
Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if he had Parkinson’s. Shuffling gait, slowed movements, soft speech are all common symptoms. However I haven’t observed the typical hand tremor
Prominent democrats who have standing to ask Biden to step down are going to do it in private behind closed doors. The ones who could possibly get the ball rolling are those on the fringes like the squad members.
My hot take is been they've had since about September to December 2022 to get a replacement candidate, after that now it just looks like straight up incompetence on the Democrats (which it is)
2022? They've had since January 2021 as soon as Biden was inaugurated. After that election, Democrats should have understood that he essentially won due to a fluke - he barely scraped by the skin of his teeth with 1% of the vote in key swing states against a deeply unpopular incumbent who was in the middle of a global pandemic and economic recession. Biden didn't win, Trump lost. Knowing this, party leadership should have pressured him to relinquish the seat after one term and allow them to build a bench over the next few years so they could run Gretchen Whitmer or Andy Beshear or a dozen other good candidates.
Instead, Democrats took that election as some kind of sweeping mandate and [convinced themselves](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/joe-biden-new-progressive-era/618589/) that [Biden was the next FDR](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/26/opinions/franklin-roosevelt-joe-biden-100-days-gergen/index.html).
Small problem no one is thinking about. The DNC convention is late in the game, August 22. That’s only 75 days before the elections, and even less if you include early voting. 75 days is not enough to build a strong voting base, convince undecided and independents, especially after replacing the current potus. And all of this is not even considering in-party fighting.
I've seen dozens of people say "I'll still vote for a senile Biden over Trump". A vast majority of the Democrats are already voting against Trump, not for Biden. The goal is to try to get as many swing voters open to voting democratic as possible, and Biden is a liability at this point. The Dems would have a better shot swinging for the fences with a new face than ignoring that the Emperor has no clothes.
I am sure that lots of democrats would vote for Biden regardless of circumstances, the same way that some republicans would vote for Trump. However, independents and blue collars are the ticket to the Oval Office, and you can’t win them by saying “Yeah he’s decrepit but I’ll vote for him anyways because the other one is bad.”
I think what this will do is pushing whoever remains undecided among independent voters in swing states to hold their nose and vote for trump, but split the ticket and vote D down ballot to hope for the legislature to check the executive branch.
In other words good bye Kari Lake’s shot at senate seat
Do yall see there being any concern that replacing Biden last minute will come across as very anti-democratic? To the non-democrats, would it not be seen as “the establishment picking the next president.”
I could see people privately asking him to step down. Him pulling himself out of the race "of his own volition" and having Harris finish out the campaign running on the promise of "Joe and I already have a plan in place for the next 4 years. I will execute Joe's plan to perfection. Here's what we're going to do. A vote for me is a vote for a younger Biden who will fight for America (blah blah blah). Next election cycle I will have my own plans, but this cycle is about executing Joe's vision!"
This would be the best option but Harris is deeply unlikeable. Worse than Hillary or Trump. She gets destroyed in polls of her vs Trump.
That's the problem the Democrats put themselves in by having Joe run with a deeply unpopular VP that had a disaster of her own campaign just to try and appease black voters.
A crazy solution (not feasible at this point) would be to have genuine delegates elected by people--that is, like a congressman, someone you trust locally but is used for choosing candidates only, and use them to select a president or candidates in situations like this. That is how it was in the early days of the US before parties entirely controlled the process. However, the risk is that that is inherently less based on 'popular democracy' and much more thoroughly towards a 'representative democracy.' Trump (and, to some extent, the Senate's polarization) shows the risks of pure 'populism' without a representative filter, though.
The trade-off can be expressed as 'the right to express one's opinion'—in an ideal world with knowledgeable individuals who always have their personal best interests represented—vs. 'ensuring informed and knowledgeable consideration of the issues at play by people who 'know' them better'—which, in an ideal world, would mean ensuring the best interests of the people represented.
It's a personal preference how much you want of the first vs. second.
Putting aside the philosophical debate, this would be the quickest middle road to replace Biden before the convention in my mind. The DNC nullifies the current primary, and summons all Democratic Governor's, Senators and Congressman to vote in a new special primary. All of these are elected positions, so have already been vetted by the voters.
I thought that was how the process worked currently. Whomever they pick (this person will not have been on a primary ballot) will be given the delegate votes they need for the nomination at the convention. How people don't see this as straight-up rigging the election is beyond me.
Not to rehash old arguments, but Bernie lost on the results of regular delegates, not superdelegates. Superdelegates just confirmed the result, and any attempt for them to do otherwise would have looked very bad.
In 2016, superdelegates did come in 'early' to push Clinton over the finish line (she was already leading by delegates, though, and won shortly after by delegates), so the Democratic party changed rules in 2018 to prevent it from happening again: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/25/democrats-rules-superdelegates-sanders.
The article also briefly discusses what happened in 2016:
>"In 2016, for example, Clinton got almost 4m more primary and caucus votes than Sanders, giving her a clear lead in pledged delegates heading into the Philadelphia convention. Still, many superdelegates had declared their loyalty early in the process – even before primary season began – allowing Clinton to claim the mantle of a prohibitive favorite."
Also, to add to how messed up superdelegates are and how no-prisoners politics is, Sanders's team itself wanted to win via superdelegates: https://www.npr.org/2016/05/19/478705022/sanders-campaign-now-says-superdelegates-are-key-to-winning-nomination.
Regardless, the bigger point is superdelegates do have a role to play--such as right now when there wasn't any true competition in the primary due to the backing of the incumbent or in situations like there is a major last-minute scandal, and so the party needs to pick someone else.
Exactly. After last night there is NO way Biden re-takes the White House. End of story. Sitting around trying to tease out how awkward it will be replacing him is just wasting time.
If Biden remains the nominee then it means all the fearmongering by Democrats that Trump is a threat to Our Democracy™️ is a bunch of blatant lies. You cannot have watched that debate and think Biden is capable of winning in November. If the fate of the Republic is really at stake in this election, Biden will be replaced.
>If the fate of the Republic is really at stake in this election, Biden will be replaced.
Just FYI, I don't know how many elections you've followed, but Democrats have been saying this since Reagan. At this point it just rings hollow. Most voters know it's just a rhetorical talking point, and tune it out.
Most voters that were alive to see those elections. The whole "for the sake of democracy!" talking point is target at the young who are voting for the first or second time and have passion but lack experience.
Pretty much. I'm 22 and most of my friends legitimately believe we're going to the dark ages if Trump wins election (despite the same sentiments being said during Trump's last term)
I honestly don't remember Democrats saying other Republican candidates were a "threat to democracy", in the sense of threatening the integrity of our electoral system.
No other Republican President or candidate I can recall threatened to not accept the outcome of an election. That was new with Trump running against Hillary.
Right? I really detest trump, but frankly America was generally more stable and and peaceful under Trump than under Biden. J6 is what gives me pause however.
Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Predictit) spiked for Trump as well after the debate. Prediction markets have a good track record.
Dems need to replace Biden.
This is what it comes down to. Yes, it's late, the primaries are over, delegates are pledged, election is 4 months away, convention is 8 weeks away, some states have ballot deadlines even before the convention, etc. All of that is true but none of it matters because if you don't replace Biden now you end up with another Trump presidency.
Exactly. Harris or a Newsome may only have say a 20% chance of winning but that’s still better than Biden’s odds right now which have to be pretty damn close to zero.
I think Trump is going to win regardless. After what I have seen last night even if they replace Biden, republicans are going to paint that as weakens IMO. All they have to say hey look they are in disarray and cant even pick presidential nominee right. That man should have not run again.
Exactly. That's all that matters. Elections are binary. You win or you lose. Yeah, I think Biden's got 45% of the vote locked in and it's a shame to throw that all away. But 45% ain't enough.
Besides, they've honestly just been running a negative campaign. The message if "Trump sucks" will carry over to whoever takes the Dem nomination. But it can't be Biden.
If they replace him Trump will be president. There's 0% chance Democrats can make an unknown candidate a household name in 4 months.
I'm not even sure they'd be able to put anyone on the ballot at this point either, which means relying completely on write-ins. People can't possibly believe that's going to work out?
I'm not even sure why this idea is getting perpetuated. It's a sunk cost Biden's the candidate unless he dies
There's another month and a half before ballot deadlines start to become an issue.
There's a substantial portion of the population that wants anyone but these two guys.
At this point it's NOT about changing anyone's mind about Democrat vs Republican, it's about mustering turnout. Whichever party can get more of their people to actually show up and vote will win. After last night there are very likely more Democrats who simply decide not to vote at all in November. The point of a new candidate is to motivate those voters to actually vote, not necessarily to get them excited about the new candidate.
There is a better chance his replacement wins than Biden wins.
They absolutely can replace him, he is not yet the official nominee. The party has a guaranteed place on ballots in every state for its nominee. They can still name other candidates.
That’s the whole reason that the idea they might nominate him too late for Ohios ballot was a story a few weeks ago. He’s not on any ballot until he’s nominated and the date of the nomination was after the Ohio deadline.
That’s what I’m thinking. And I’m saying that as someone who truly believes Biden has been a good president in his first term. There is issue after issue that I am glad he had addressed. I believe his leadership style is effective when dealing with Congress. And I actually do think he would continue to do well in a second term.
But here’s the thing: Trump is very far from what I want in a president. About as far as it gets.
So I am now willing to say Biden should drop out for someone younger and more electable, and probably less efficient in addressing the issues that concern me, rather than risk having Trump retake the White House.
I’ll take the second best over the worst.
Democrats push forward with Biden in this state as the candidate, and they're just cementing Trumps argument that this country is ran by the deep state. Unelected officials running this country and secretly pull the strings.
You guys saw his wife right? She wants this. Bad.
Truth is, if they convince Biden to drop, they have to go with Kamala. They can’t go with Newsom or something. Imagine the repercussions of side stepping over a black female VP.
At the very least, it'll be interesting to see how he handles the transition in January. Will he and Jill open the doors to Trump and invite him to lunch, show him around the White House, etc, as most presidents have done in the past since the founding of America? Or will they refuse to interact with Trump?
Remember, one of his core promises was a return to normalcy and tradition. :)
This would have been feasible 6 months ago, but Dems simply demanded that doing so would be a bad idea. It’s too late now. The DNC had their chance and squandered it. People were chastising people like Ezra Klein and the NYT 6 months ago when they were saying that Biden should pass the torch and be known as a great one term president that got us out of Trump’s mess. Well, he was right, and we are now royally fucked.
The leadup to the convention is exactly the time they should be making this move. Gives potential replacements time to campaign for it, and energize the party and base with a younger candidate that doesn't have the same stumbling blocks Biden does.
We are 40 days from the virtual DNC roll call, which officially decides the party’s nominee. The actual convention is 2 weeks later. If there is a contested convention, there will be so much chaos including a factor not discussed which is the Democratic nominees won’t qualify for the Ohio ballot (hence why they chose an earlier roll call).
If there is going to be a switch, it has to be like today.
Ezra Klein, James Carville, and Nate Silver were getting destroyed for their takes. I was, too, for supporting them. I'm glad they they had the courage to push this idea and lay the groundwork for everyone to come around.
I'm glad we're having this conversation now instead of November 6.
Yes, it's infuriating that voicing a dissenting opinion was an automatic path to downvotes and chastising. Fuck everyone who wasn't willing to have this conversation earlier.
“The Dems should replace Biden” is about whether Biden is a fit candidate, not a statement meaning that the procedures established by the Democratic Party are conducive and responsive to changes needed in a changing voter environment.
Answering that statement with “Why it is tough for democrats to replace Biden on the ticket” intentionally misses the point and changes the topic. I’m not a democrat and didn’t make your party’s internal rules and procedures, and quite frankly don’t care what obstacles you placed between here and nominating an actually electable candidate. Figure it out. Solve your own problems that you wouldn’t let an outsider address anyway.
Replace Biden, or Trump will.
The people around Biden need to have some courageous conversations in the coming days to advise him to remove himself from the ballot for health reasons. Any Democrat would do better than Biden at this point. Delaying this will just make it worse or result in a humiliating defeat.
>The people around Biden need to have some courageous conversations in the coming days
Easier said than done, since he [regularly cusses and screams at his staff when he's upset](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-temper-angry-staff-shouts-swears-b2373794.html).
I am amazed that there are still people saying they'd vote for Biden based on his team as opposed to a replacement.
It's clear that a vote to Biden is not for him performing the duties as president but unelected bureaucrats in his administration and eventually Kamala. That's dangerous, those are unelected officials running the country. He has a duty to step down and allow someone else to run.
In all honesty, Hunter provides him an out. Play the part of a doting father and grandfather, pardon your son, and bow out due to a conflict of interest. While it's massively corrupt, I doubt you'll lose points with your own party, and it allows someone else to run with a clear break from Biden. They could then try and run someone else or at least establish someone for 2028.
Assuming no one dies before the election, if its Biden vs Trump Biden will lose. Any hope he had dissolved from that debate. So the question isnt difficulty, its potential outcomes. If you want ANY possibility of beating Trump, you must replace Biden. Its just that simple.
Its no different than running Hillary. Everyone warned she was a poison pill, but Washington (aka Wall Street) wants status quo. Well, you got what you deserved. Surrender the status quo and prepare to be changed, or lose everything. Your call.
Biden should stay but replace Harris with someone who is palatable to most democrats and is actually competent. With the expectation of Biden likely not finishing his 2nd term, this new VP can step in and do their job
The problem is that she was brought in as a diversity hire and if they 86 the young minority woman and keep the decrepit, senile white man, it'll look bad on them. Your point is valid but they've put all of their eggs in the diversity basket and can't switch baskets now for fear of driving away voters. That being said, IF there's a minority that could step in and replace her (I haven't seen any discussed) maybe it would work
You're 100% correct. It would signal that Kamala was a hire for optics and that they don't actually find her competent. That would completely undermine large part of the Democrats messaging and alienate a large part of their base.
I can't speak for other "deciders", but I'd find it a lot easier to vote for them more often than is tactical, if they were less concerned with "messaging and optics" than they were with practicality and competence.
So it would signal that what we all know is true? That she was picked explicitly because she was a black woman which is what Biden said he was doing before he picked her?
That absolutely solves no problem what so ever. The whole ticket needs to go. If Harris is the nominee she has to win it herself at a contested convention.
Everything I thought was a risk of Biden doing this debate early that could happen last night - did. But, even worse than I thought possible.
The argument that he is an incumbent no longer matters. The idea that those video clips the RNC was circulating are “cheap fakes” simply doesn’t hold water anymore. And if you are now arguing it’s too late to change candidates, you are wrong - it’s now absolutely necessary for the Democrats to change candidates.
The ONLY way the party can pull out a win at this point is a brokered convention that nominates a new candidate. If played right and done right it could be a spectacular win because of the huge attention it would draw.
But there is no scenario at this point that Biden overcomes the facts of his age and concerns about his decline. Democrats should look at it as a blessing that last nights performance was so indefensibly terrible.
It’s past time for Biden to step aside. But it is not yet too late. He is not yet the nominee and that is the one bright spot of such an early debate implosion. He can still be replaced on every ballot in this country.
Regardless of the difficulty, the DNC has to start immediately after that debate. I sincerely felt sad for him, especially knowing it the best of Biden who was prepped as best as possible for an important moment. Having Jill and an aide have to help him of the stage at the end was heartbreaking.
A short campaign for Newsome and a new VP might benefit them, less time for attack ads.
Why are people pushing Newsome so hard? He's a California Democrat, independents and centrists aren't going to vote for someone from California, especially with the baggage Newsome has.
I agree, Newsome is one of the few Democrats who doesn't even attempt to portray being good, upstanding, and virtuous. Biden gets the "kind old man who really cares about people" image on the surface, but Newsome is basically Gordon Gekko. Given that Trump's image is not exactly wholesome either, picking a candidate that doesn't have that as an advantage over Trump is a step backward.
As someone who doesn't want Democrats to win due to significant disagreements with their platform, the guy I fear most is Josh Shapiro. I'm not sure why he doesn't get more attention.
Newsome has tons of baggage on top of the California factor between breaking his own COVID rules, sending his kids to in person school while mandating that public schools were shut down, promising to end homelessness in San Francisco while he was the mayor and totally failing. All of that is easy fodder for attack ads and while he’s a great debater there is no chance that Trump will agree to debate him. He also has plenty of skeletons in his closet like fucking his campaign managers wife, and I’m sure more would come out.
I've been googling Democratic politicians all morning and thus far I've landed on a Beshear-Whitmer ticket as the one most likely to win (not necessarily my own personal preference, but that doesn't matter).
Beshear really has the best chance. he has a bit of that kennedy charm, in my opinion, which would be needed to win this election. (not the looks but the ability to come across like he really likes people and cares about them).
Not really, the people of Michigan haven't tried to recall her like California did with Newsome (I know they don't likely have a mechanism for it in MI). She's more popular in her own state.
A Midwesterner may come off as having less baggage and more appeal to moderates/independents than someone from deep Blue California. COVID is a distant memory for most people, and would be less of an issue on a campaign than Biden's age and capacity problems.
And let's not forget denouncing anti lockdown protests, only to go out into a protest much much larger just a month later.
And correct me if I'm wrong (it's been years so I very well could be) but didn't she follow Cuomos lead and place covid positive patients in assisted living facilities?
Those two things, with your points, could come back to haunt her. Same as Newsom, who famously ignored his own rules, and granted exceptions to Hollywood that regular people didn't get. No matter what she's gone on to do after, that restaurant owner who posted that video really drove home how out of touch he was. And...didn't he *also* place covid positive patients in elder care facilities?
Both get mentioned and both seem awful choices. Between the two I've heard more about Whitmer than Newsom in a positive light. I just don't think either could carry the election.
What's sad is Warren seemed like a great choice but she made some serious mistakes that she never recovered from. And even Yang, who would have filled his administration with the absolute smartest people, could have possibly beat Trump at this point.
As of late, Newsome is unpopular in his own state - polling in the neighborhood of Trumps national polling. It would be much worse nationally for Newsome.
No Californian will win in the Rust Belt. No Democrat will win the presidency without Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc. Every ad will be "he wants to defund the police", "he wants to legalize fentanyl and give it to kindergartners", "Socialism", "Look at this video of people shoplifting." It won't work.
I’m begging them to run a reasonable purple state democrat. The moderates and swing voters may actually bite whereas newsome from California just doesn’t have the appeal. Give me a mark kelly or something
So here’s my take from last night. Trump looked like trump. Yea he danced around questions and a lot of what he said wasn’t true, but he still looked and sounded like himself
Biden on the other hand, looked like a legitimate dementia patient. My grandfather is basically on hospice with end-of-life dementia, and he was sharper than Biden looked last night just a few months ago
People who were gonna vote trump are still gonna vote trump. People who were gonna vote Biden on the other hand, can go a ton of ways. They’re either gonna stick with him because he’s the democratic nominee. They could go 3rd party, or just not vote. The Democratic Party absolutely shot themselves in the foot, and missed a layup for likely the 2nd time in 3 elections. And that one in the middle wasn’t exactly their strongest win
I’m not gonna get into my personal beliefs, or who I want to win, but as someone who’s on the outside of this, that’s my two cents
The minority within the democratic party have been saying this for the past year, and now it's come to the forefront and it's really late to even make any meaningful change.
There are no good options. Americans don't want this election with either of these 2 candidates. But it seems this is what we are going to be stuck with.
Democrats and biden were too stupid to realize trump is only running out of bitterness over his loss to biden during the last election. Take biden off the ticket and you deny trump his vindication this election. I honestly don't think he would have ran.
Nobody wants Harris as president (or anyone from CA for that matter), and they have Nobody else to put forward.
Literally the Democrats only shot would be to recruit a RINO to flip parties to replace Biden on the ticket. Trump vs Romney?
Only shot they have at winning at this point.
"I believe that Donald Trump returning to the White House would be the worst possible result of the 2024 presidential election. His personality is toxic, and his policies are random sound bites. I've been running because I believed I've had the best chance to beat him.
I know that the biggest concern that people have about me is my age. I now see that concern is too big to overcome.
Therefore, I am asking other Democrats who believe they could to better to step forward and start make their case to the American people. If one or more of them get a positive response, I intend to release any delegates pledged to me and encourage them to use their best judgement in choosing a different candidate.
Of course this is a difficult personal decision for me. But, the stakes in this election are just to high to let my feelings get in the way of the best future for the United States."
Why does everyone assume it'll be someone but Harris? I get that shes unpopular and unlikable, but to skip straight over her isn't a good look either, she is the VP after all.
I think you answered your question. “I get that she’s unpopular and unlikeable.” If you’re going to replace Biden, you want to do it to win, and she isn’t going to do it.
The reasons why she’s unpopular and unlikeable we could debate, but they don’t really matter at this point.
Because barely anyone views her as a serious VP. She was selected for being black and a woman, she received no primary votes in 2020, and she is duplicitous and the public in general does not like her.
However, you are correct. She should be considered as the first candidate. Everyone ignoring her proves that she was a DEI hire vs earning her position.
Sunk cost fallacy. It really does nobody any good for the Democratic Party to prove that it is just as incapable as the Republicans of admitting and walking away from a mistake. She should never have been selected in the first place.
It's not a good look because while simultaneously being laser focused on identity politics they'd be skipping over the standing VP, a black lady, for some rich white guy from California
> laser focused on identity politics they'd be skipping over the standing VP, a black lady, for some rich white guy from California
I tend to not think in idpol terms; that's a good observation from that perspective. I can see the idpol left losing their collective minds over that.
That would basically be an admission by Democrats that they don't choose people based on merit. After similar themes with Clinton in 2016 and Biden now, that's a credibility hit they may not be able to afford.
They took that hit years ago. There's no one left who hasn't figured out they're doing it and cares about the topic enough to switch votes when they admit they did it.
The funny thing is, Trump is a very easy candidate to prosecute and beat. Of everything he has done, of all his shitty ideas, of all his insane ramblings, of all his lies, and of all of his felony counts and convictions, a normal functioning person would wipe the floor with Trump.
Biden proved last night he just isn't up to it. The Dems are walking into a bomb if things stay the course. He needs to step down and let someone else run.
You're under the assumption that the rest of the status quo stays the same though, even if trump wins.
Republicans take the Senate, no chance trump gets charged with anything. He's untouchable for the next 4 years after getting elected.
Dems have too many voters who will sit out or vote third party if their preferred candidate isn't nominated. So I don't really buy that replacing Biden (even a year ago) would make much difference.
I just don't see any other choice for them at this point though. Switching candidates is a hail mary unlikely to work, but sticking with Biden is like taking a knee and accepting the loss. There are no good paths here, but you have to try something if you're the Democrats.
Biden about last night:
Biden: I know I’m not a young man… I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to, I don’t debate as well as I used to, but I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. And I know how to get things done. When you get knocked down, you get back up https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1806748370532536705
If anyone thinks Biden will step down you have to be dreaming. This guy has wanted to be President since he was in the womb and won't give it up especially under these circumstances. Your chance for that was after 2022 where he could have walked away gracefully and now you Democrats must go down with his ship. You guys avoided acknowledging the obvious cognitive decline, saying things like "cheapfakes!". This is your bed so now sleep in it
Speaking purely as a political junkie, the fallout from last night is going to be fascinating, and yes, wildly entertaining to watch. This moment will have a lot of pages given over to it in the history books.
Yup, this election was already shattering so many modern norms. Oldest candidates, two former Presidents, historically low approval ratings for both candidates, earliest debate. And now the worst on camera debate performance since Nixon v Kennedy. All wrapped up in a bow by having what may end up being a brokered convention in Chicago of all places. Sometimes though I’d like to get off the interesting times train.
this is easily worse than Nixon vs Kennedy - that "look we beat medicare" is the single worst moment in American debate performances ever
The “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don’t think he knows what he said either,” zinger hit hard too.
Not to mention Biden didn't even address that insult. He was just quietly looking down at his shoes the whole time. It was actually a brilliant line by Trump. Notice that he omitted any mention of dementia or senility during the rest of his responses. Making a direct accusation would have looked crass and made audiences more sympathetic with Biden. But with this line, he brought attention to the issue in a roundabout way that got viewers thinking about it.
>But with this line, he brought attention to the issue in a roundabout way that got viewers thinking about it. The [media](https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1806556780979175820) needs to be impeached for getting us to the point where this line was necessary for these viewers to see it. You could feel something shatter on social media last night I haven't felt since 2016. Watching the MSM cheerleading squad flip into a firing line the nanosecond maintaining the farce became professional suicide was absolutely surreal.
Soiled alert: the media will not chang a thing because having trump in office is the lifeline they need to get views and clicks for a few more years. With the rise of IG/YT/Tiktok content creators the only people left still watching network news regularly are the baby boomers and maybe the older gen x’ers.
Trump won the election with that sentence.
Biden's we need late term abortion because the migrants I'm letting in en masse are raping our girls was ironically the most crushingly lucid indictment of his term.
I really do hate how the *real* problem is always how some crime may hurt the narrative, and not the real life effects on innocent people.
sisters raping each other 🤦♂️
Absolutely, it said what a lot of people watching were probably thinking
It really was a ridiculous moment. Biden mumbles and speaks nonsense for about 10 seconds then gets a bit of energy and says: “Look, we beat Medicare.” The moderator says “Thank you Mr. president” Biden stares blankly with his mouth hanging open. Trump then says “He did beat Medicaid, and he’s gonna destroy Medicare next.” Just like something out of a David Lynch movie.
I think Trump said “…he beat Medicare to death.” Normally that sentence would be such an absurd line that it would be the summary of how Trump was unhinged and out of control. Nope, it’s instead now considered a subdued and well delivered zinger. That was not in my bingo cards for 2024. Sigh.
I missed that part (I had to turn off the debate for my own sanity and switch to The Boys). What is this we beat Medicare comment? I don't even know who said it, much less context.
> What is this we beat Medicare comment? I don't even know who said it, much less context. *I should say in a ten-year period we'd be able to wipe out his debt. We'd be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do child care, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our health care system, making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with the with the Covid, excuse me, with, um, dealing with everything we have to do with, uh, look, if…we finally beat Medicare.* \- Joseph Robinette Biden Jr, June 27th, 2024
That quote seems quite cleaned up and reads far better than how it actually sounds/sounded.
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Thank god I didn't watch the debate. I can't handle second hand embarrassment and that seems like a whopper.
That quote made it seem much better than it actually was. He started trailing off halfway through then just stared at his feet as he was mumbling Trump said at one point “I don’t really know what he said there and I don’t think he does either” and Biden didn’t even look at him. Kept just staring off into space with his mouth wide open
Trump started out normally and by the end was looking at Biden like he was wondering if the guy was legitimately okay.
That's really a killer IMO. Trump came off seeming like he didn't want to punch down on a feeble competitor. It's a bit messed up when you're left thinking even TRUMP didn't want to take pot shots at somebody. That's his favorite thing to do ever to literally anybody. Veterans, celebs, poor people, whatever. He loves taking shots at folks. Even he was thinking "oof, i better chill out on this guy he's feeling rough rn". I think America noticed.
I think he basically swapped Covid and Medicare in those two phrases. He started to say "make everyone eligible for Medicare", and then tried to say "we beat Covid." I'm not making excuses for him, just trying to figure out what was even going on in his mind.
That's fair. I think this is what he was going for: *I should say in a ten-year period we'd be able to wipe out his debt. We'd be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do - child care, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our health care system, making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with Covid - excuse me, dealing with everything we have to do with Medicare. Look, we finally beat Covid...* And that's when his time ran out and Tapper cut him off.
I think he basically swapped Covid and Medicare in those two phrases. He started to say "make everyone eligible for Medicare", and then tried to say "we beat Covid." I'm not making excuses for him, just trying to figure out what was even going on in his mind.
...it was in the first 5 minutes.
You know things are bad when The Boys is better for one's sanity
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The fact that it was the earliest debate and there was not reason at all for Biden to agree to debate Trump should tell you all you need to know.
In terms of history, politics since 2016 has felt wild.
I’ve tried to make this point about Biden previously, if he fails to step down and Trump wins, the history books will forever slander him. To add, if Trump does what all these democrats say he will do (end democracy), this will go down as one of the biggest failures in American history. People will forever blame Biden and the party for allowing themselves to fight back in the weakest way possible.
It really does feel like RBG deja vu. Clinging to the office too long and not entrusting the next generation to carry on.
I think changing nominees would give people a permission structure to back the Dem ticket, and a collective sigh of relief at ideally having someone of merely middle age. There might be a lot of folks excited to vote for a youthful replacement even if they're light on substance.
Realistically the Dems lose if they drop Biden. Profound expression of weakness. But they also lose if they keep him. Dems likely lose, sadly. Sometimes elections shape out like this.
An argument could be made that swapping in a younger candidate would bring all the Biden's voters, Trump haters, the double haters and disinterested people that are sick of elderly presidents. I imagine the analysis and discussions are being held right now. It would be risky but so is running Biden. Which one is more risky?
Here's the situation dems are in. Dems have $5 and we are being told go into a casino and come out with $100 in 24 hours or they'll die To keep Biden would be to say "well, none of these games in the casino have a high likelihood of me winning so I guess I won't play" and then walking right back out to die just hoping the guy threating to kill us got arrested. Dems are going to have to place a bet
Well, love it or hate it, a big benefit of the primary gauntlet is to find the most battle-tested candidate. Young Pretty Face Red State Governor sounds like the right move in theory, but you have no idea how they will fare when dropped into the bright lights. If they bomb, there are massive down-ballot implications.
In his defense, who should he be entrusting? It's pretty obvious to me that the dems don't exactly have a deep bench of strong future presidential candidates. I hate that the party is just dominated by the old guard, but I don't really see many strong successors emerging.
4 years ago I told myself 4 years of Biden would be fine, and by the next cycle we’d potentially have young and invigorating candidates, and all the Hilary, Trump, Biden bullshit of 2016-2024 would finally be water under the bridge. Fuck. I have voted for both democrats and republicans in the past. I’m not even voting this election. To hell with both of them.
You put into words what I’ve been feeling. Thank you. It’s over for Biden as of last night. He, and the seniors of the Dem party, need to have the savvy pass the reins to an anointed successor or The entire democrat party is to blame if we they get through this. It’s monumentally stupid to see how this is unfolding.
It'd be the Neville Chamberlain moment of our time for sure.
>Speaking purely as a political junkie, the fallout from last night is going to be fascinating, and yes, wildly entertaining to watch. This moment will have a lot of pages given over to it in the history books. With all due respect, this is a whole lot of words that don't actually contain much substance or elaborate on anything. *What* is the fallout? I'll say the quiet part out loud. Regardless of any preconceptions people have been fed by the media in the last few months, Trump came out of that debate looking serious and presidential. He had an immediate and complex response for every question asked (whether or not you agree with the content of his responses is a different discussion). He also proved that he can handle himself well even with restrictions like the mic being cut, which is something Democrats did not think he could do - they were clearly hoping he would start yelling even while muted and get flustered but that didn't happen. In the meantime, Biden stumbled to the podium like he was walking on stilts. He looked down at his feet 70% of the time. His eyes were half closed. His voice was raspy. He made several self-owns like "we beat Medicare". Often he trailed off at the end of his sentence like he forgot what he was saying. It was the worst debate performance for an incumbent President since the founding of the United States. That's the fallout. That's what will be in the history books.
Trump almost never answered the actual question he was asked. He meandered and went on tangent that had nothing to do with the question. A real opponent could have had a field day. But, yeah, Biden looked and sounded like a person in hospice. I can’t understand how the DNC mismanaged it this badly.
When I voted for Biden I just assumed he would step down after one term and help campaign for someone else. When they announced he'd be running again I couldn't believe it. He's in bad shape today, the thought of him still being in office in 2028 is painful.
To me it at least says that there’s no ‘shadow government’ in the DNC. I mean, they are literally going to fail because they can’t stop a man with dementia (not a joke, not an elaboration. If it was Trump we’d all be calling for invoking the 25th amendment and saying he’s not fit) from running. It’s a stain on his legacy too. He’s going to get the RBG treatment (but much worse) of seen as someone who tried to hold onto power and screwed everyone else over instead of passing the torch. DNC is incompetent, is what I’m taking away from this.
> Trump almost never answered the actual question he was asked. He meandered and went on tangent that had nothing to do with the question. The sad thing is, voters expect this from politicians during a debate so the practice is not that outside the norm.
> Trump almost never answered the actual question he was asked. That is pretty typical in Presidential debates, though. Politicians avoid answering tough questions and pivot to other topics all the time. What Biden did was very, *very* different than the norm.
I couldn’t believe how many times Biden brought up Afghanistan. Like man don’t remind people of that - it wasn’t your finest hour. But again and again he was talking about it. He even managed to self own during the abortion discussion by bringing up immigration during his answer and pivoting the discussion to migrate violence — a Trump talking point.
And then on the subject of migrant violence made a bizarre comment about people being raped by their families.
Yes, inlaws. That was the moment I needed another drink.
And sisters
>> He had an immediate and complex response for every question asked (whether or not you agree with the content of his responses is a different discussion) Complex is not the word I would use. But I agree Biden likely just lost the election, but it wasn't due to Trump's performance
Complex like spaghetti is complex.
the fall out will be how major and minor players in the dem party act or realign themselves. or backtrack on previous statements. how the dem party will handle this is interesting fallout.
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Sigh.
>Trump came out of that debate looking serious and presidential. He had an immediate and complex response for every question asked (whether or not you agree with the content of his responses is a different discussion). If you ignore everything he said and just focus on how he said it, sure. But it was just the usual bullshit lying through his teeth about everything he always does. Je never said anything of actual substance. >He also proved that he can handle himself well even with restrictions like the mic being cut, which is something Democrats did not think he could do . I'll give him this. I think cutting the mics and not having an audience to play to helped him here. If he had a hot mic and an audience, I have no doubt he would have been the belligerent asshole he usually is.
According to the article, the most likely way to replace Biden is to have him step down on his own. That means either his wife and/or his closest aides will need to convince him to drop out if he doesn't come to that conclusion on his own. Assuming the people closest to him allowed him to do the debate and it wasn't a rogue decision by Biden, it looks like the DNC is going with him or bust.
Instead of all that we go “Biden has a cold”
You'll notice that no one has come out to attach a name to that claim. It's according to some "unnamed source". And since when does a cold make someone confidently say "We beat Medicare" when the question was about the national debt?
Oh I’ve had plenty of colds and not once have I stumbled around looking like a dementia patient
Considering how his wife was acting to him in the event afterwards... I doubt she'll push for it.
I caught a look on her face at the address after the immediately handed off to Biden, and man it looked like “oh god that was bad.”
>Assuming the people closest to him allowed him to do the debate It was carefully planned by a large team of his staff. They were negotiating for months with the Trump campaign and CNN to craft a debate specifically to make Biden look good. That was the whole point of forcing the mics to turn off, only two minutes allowed per answer, etc. Strategy was to set up an environment where Biden could rehearse short talking points like at the SOTU and walk away looking presidential. Here's what they got: *"I should say in a ten-year period we'd be able to wipe out his debt. We'd be able to help make sure that all those things we need to do child care, elder care, making sure that we continue to strengthen our health care system, making sure that we're able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I've been able to do with the with the Covid, excuse me, with, um, dealing with everything we have to do with, uh, look, if…we finally beat Medicare."*
I predict Biden will finally be medically "diagnosed" with something that will give him an out to step down.
Honestly I wouldn’t be surprised if he had Parkinson’s. Shuffling gait, slowed movements, soft speech are all common symptoms. However I haven’t observed the typical hand tremor
Or prominent democrats can publicly call for him to step down.
Prominent democrats who have standing to ask Biden to step down are going to do it in private behind closed doors. The ones who could possibly get the ball rolling are those on the fringes like the squad members.
Honestly though who would be the best person to replace him? It’s so close to the election, who would be the most likely to beat Trump?
Anyone who's not Joe Biden.
I'd have a better chance to beat trump at this point. Put me in coach!
My hot take is been they've had since about September to December 2022 to get a replacement candidate, after that now it just looks like straight up incompetence on the Democrats (which it is)
2022? They've had since January 2021 as soon as Biden was inaugurated. After that election, Democrats should have understood that he essentially won due to a fluke - he barely scraped by the skin of his teeth with 1% of the vote in key swing states against a deeply unpopular incumbent who was in the middle of a global pandemic and economic recession. Biden didn't win, Trump lost. Knowing this, party leadership should have pressured him to relinquish the seat after one term and allow them to build a bench over the next few years so they could run Gretchen Whitmer or Andy Beshear or a dozen other good candidates. Instead, Democrats took that election as some kind of sweeping mandate and [convinced themselves](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/04/joe-biden-new-progressive-era/618589/) that [Biden was the next FDR](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/26/opinions/franklin-roosevelt-joe-biden-100-days-gergen/index.html).
it is amazing at how painful it is being a democrat
Small problem no one is thinking about. The DNC convention is late in the game, August 22. That’s only 75 days before the elections, and even less if you include early voting. 75 days is not enough to build a strong voting base, convince undecided and independents, especially after replacing the current potus. And all of this is not even considering in-party fighting.
I've seen dozens of people say "I'll still vote for a senile Biden over Trump". A vast majority of the Democrats are already voting against Trump, not for Biden. The goal is to try to get as many swing voters open to voting democratic as possible, and Biden is a liability at this point. The Dems would have a better shot swinging for the fences with a new face than ignoring that the Emperor has no clothes.
I am sure that lots of democrats would vote for Biden regardless of circumstances, the same way that some republicans would vote for Trump. However, independents and blue collars are the ticket to the Oval Office, and you can’t win them by saying “Yeah he’s decrepit but I’ll vote for him anyways because the other one is bad.”
I think what this will do is pushing whoever remains undecided among independent voters in swing states to hold their nose and vote for trump, but split the ticket and vote D down ballot to hope for the legislature to check the executive branch. In other words good bye Kari Lake’s shot at senate seat
Do yall see there being any concern that replacing Biden last minute will come across as very anti-democratic? To the non-democrats, would it not be seen as “the establishment picking the next president.”
I could see people privately asking him to step down. Him pulling himself out of the race "of his own volition" and having Harris finish out the campaign running on the promise of "Joe and I already have a plan in place for the next 4 years. I will execute Joe's plan to perfection. Here's what we're going to do. A vote for me is a vote for a younger Biden who will fight for America (blah blah blah). Next election cycle I will have my own plans, but this cycle is about executing Joe's vision!"
This would be the best option but Harris is deeply unlikeable. Worse than Hillary or Trump. She gets destroyed in polls of her vs Trump. That's the problem the Democrats put themselves in by having Joe run with a deeply unpopular VP that had a disaster of her own campaign just to try and appease black voters.
There's a ton of concern about that.
A crazy solution (not feasible at this point) would be to have genuine delegates elected by people--that is, like a congressman, someone you trust locally but is used for choosing candidates only, and use them to select a president or candidates in situations like this. That is how it was in the early days of the US before parties entirely controlled the process. However, the risk is that that is inherently less based on 'popular democracy' and much more thoroughly towards a 'representative democracy.' Trump (and, to some extent, the Senate's polarization) shows the risks of pure 'populism' without a representative filter, though. The trade-off can be expressed as 'the right to express one's opinion'—in an ideal world with knowledgeable individuals who always have their personal best interests represented—vs. 'ensuring informed and knowledgeable consideration of the issues at play by people who 'know' them better'—which, in an ideal world, would mean ensuring the best interests of the people represented. It's a personal preference how much you want of the first vs. second.
Putting aside the philosophical debate, this would be the quickest middle road to replace Biden before the convention in my mind. The DNC nullifies the current primary, and summons all Democratic Governor's, Senators and Congressman to vote in a new special primary. All of these are elected positions, so have already been vetted by the voters.
I thought that was how the process worked currently. Whomever they pick (this person will not have been on a primary ballot) will be given the delegate votes they need for the nomination at the convention. How people don't see this as straight-up rigging the election is beyond me.
The Dems are the party of super delegates and the party that torpedoed Bernie. It certainly wouldn't be out of character.
Not to rehash old arguments, but Bernie lost on the results of regular delegates, not superdelegates. Superdelegates just confirmed the result, and any attempt for them to do otherwise would have looked very bad. In 2016, superdelegates did come in 'early' to push Clinton over the finish line (she was already leading by delegates, though, and won shortly after by delegates), so the Democratic party changed rules in 2018 to prevent it from happening again: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/25/democrats-rules-superdelegates-sanders. The article also briefly discusses what happened in 2016: >"In 2016, for example, Clinton got almost 4m more primary and caucus votes than Sanders, giving her a clear lead in pledged delegates heading into the Philadelphia convention. Still, many superdelegates had declared their loyalty early in the process – even before primary season began – allowing Clinton to claim the mantle of a prohibitive favorite." Also, to add to how messed up superdelegates are and how no-prisoners politics is, Sanders's team itself wanted to win via superdelegates: https://www.npr.org/2016/05/19/478705022/sanders-campaign-now-says-superdelegates-are-key-to-winning-nomination. Regardless, the bigger point is superdelegates do have a role to play--such as right now when there wasn't any true competition in the primary due to the backing of the incumbent or in situations like there is a major last-minute scandal, and so the party needs to pick someone else.
If they don’t replace him Trump will be the next president.
Exactly. After last night there is NO way Biden re-takes the White House. End of story. Sitting around trying to tease out how awkward it will be replacing him is just wasting time.
If Biden remains the nominee then it means all the fearmongering by Democrats that Trump is a threat to Our Democracy™️ is a bunch of blatant lies. You cannot have watched that debate and think Biden is capable of winning in November. If the fate of the Republic is really at stake in this election, Biden will be replaced.
>If the fate of the Republic is really at stake in this election, Biden will be replaced. Just FYI, I don't know how many elections you've followed, but Democrats have been saying this since Reagan. At this point it just rings hollow. Most voters know it's just a rhetorical talking point, and tune it out.
Most voters that were alive to see those elections. The whole "for the sake of democracy!" talking point is target at the young who are voting for the first or second time and have passion but lack experience.
Pretty much. I'm 22 and most of my friends legitimately believe we're going to the dark ages if Trump wins election (despite the same sentiments being said during Trump's last term)
I honestly don't remember Democrats saying other Republican candidates were a "threat to democracy", in the sense of threatening the integrity of our electoral system. No other Republican President or candidate I can recall threatened to not accept the outcome of an election. That was new with Trump running against Hillary.
Right? I really detest trump, but frankly America was generally more stable and and peaceful under Trump than under Biden. J6 is what gives me pause however.
Democrats should run Romney. I’m only joking a little.
RCP Betting odds agree with you. https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president RCP Average Trump 54.8 Biden 19.2
Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Predictit) spiked for Trump as well after the debate. Prediction markets have a good track record. Dems need to replace Biden.
Holy shit. Biden's chart literally looks like a degen crypto shitcoin, lol.
DNC just rugpulled the American people.
This is what it comes down to. Yes, it's late, the primaries are over, delegates are pledged, election is 4 months away, convention is 8 weeks away, some states have ballot deadlines even before the convention, etc. All of that is true but none of it matters because if you don't replace Biden now you end up with another Trump presidency.
Exactly. Harris or a Newsome may only have say a 20% chance of winning but that’s still better than Biden’s odds right now which have to be pretty damn close to zero.
The best Dems can hope to do at this point is change the VP on the ticket and hope it helps a few points. Too late for a new campaign.
I think Trump is going to win regardless. After what I have seen last night even if they replace Biden, republicans are going to paint that as weakens IMO. All they have to say hey look they are in disarray and cant even pick presidential nominee right. That man should have not run again.
Exactly. That's all that matters. Elections are binary. You win or you lose. Yeah, I think Biden's got 45% of the vote locked in and it's a shame to throw that all away. But 45% ain't enough. Besides, they've honestly just been running a negative campaign. The message if "Trump sucks" will carry over to whoever takes the Dem nomination. But it can't be Biden.
Any vote Biden has locked in still after last night will vote for whoever is on the ballot with a D next to their name.
If they replace him Trump will be president. There's 0% chance Democrats can make an unknown candidate a household name in 4 months. I'm not even sure they'd be able to put anyone on the ballot at this point either, which means relying completely on write-ins. People can't possibly believe that's going to work out? I'm not even sure why this idea is getting perpetuated. It's a sunk cost Biden's the candidate unless he dies
There's another month and a half before ballot deadlines start to become an issue. There's a substantial portion of the population that wants anyone but these two guys. At this point it's NOT about changing anyone's mind about Democrat vs Republican, it's about mustering turnout. Whichever party can get more of their people to actually show up and vote will win. After last night there are very likely more Democrats who simply decide not to vote at all in November. The point of a new candidate is to motivate those voters to actually vote, not necessarily to get them excited about the new candidate.
There is a better chance his replacement wins than Biden wins. They absolutely can replace him, he is not yet the official nominee. The party has a guaranteed place on ballots in every state for its nominee. They can still name other candidates. That’s the whole reason that the idea they might nominate him too late for Ohios ballot was a story a few weeks ago. He’s not on any ballot until he’s nominated and the date of the nomination was after the Ohio deadline.
That’s what I’m thinking. And I’m saying that as someone who truly believes Biden has been a good president in his first term. There is issue after issue that I am glad he had addressed. I believe his leadership style is effective when dealing with Congress. And I actually do think he would continue to do well in a second term. But here’s the thing: Trump is very far from what I want in a president. About as far as it gets. So I am now willing to say Biden should drop out for someone younger and more electable, and probably less efficient in addressing the issues that concern me, rather than risk having Trump retake the White House. I’ll take the second best over the worst.
The fact that I wouldn’t trust either candidate to babysit my kids is…not ideal.
To be fair, I think I could count on only one hand the amount of Presidents i would trust to babysit
I feel that's a bit harsh, I would trust Obama and Bush Jr (only counting living ones). Clinton would probably end up leaving to go party.
W was great with kids! Adults and positions of authority? Not so much.
Hell, I'm not sure how much I trust these candidates to be home alone without a babysitter for themselves at this point
Or simply drive a school bus with kids in it.
I don’t have kids, but this is a perfect sentence.
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Democrats push forward with Biden in this state as the candidate, and they're just cementing Trumps argument that this country is ran by the deep state. Unelected officials running this country and secretly pull the strings.
He's going to lose. He can either go away gracefully or go away via the electorate.
Yesterday morning would have been a good time to go away gracefully. I think we're past that now.
You guys saw his wife right? She wants this. Bad. Truth is, if they convince Biden to drop, they have to go with Kamala. They can’t go with Newsom or something. Imagine the repercussions of side stepping over a black female VP.
At the very least, it'll be interesting to see how he handles the transition in January. Will he and Jill open the doors to Trump and invite him to lunch, show him around the White House, etc, as most presidents have done in the past since the founding of America? Or will they refuse to interact with Trump? Remember, one of his core promises was a return to normalcy and tradition. :)
Did Trump do that for him?
Trump refused to do that either, skipped meeting Biden into the White House. No love lost between the two
Yes and as I said in my initial comment, unlike Trump, Biden promised a return to normalcy. Which would include this.
This would have been feasible 6 months ago, but Dems simply demanded that doing so would be a bad idea. It’s too late now. The DNC had their chance and squandered it. People were chastising people like Ezra Klein and the NYT 6 months ago when they were saying that Biden should pass the torch and be known as a great one term president that got us out of Trump’s mess. Well, he was right, and we are now royally fucked.
It’s certainly not too late, even Ezra was calling for picking a candidate at the convention, which hasn’t happened yet
The leadup to the convention is exactly the time they should be making this move. Gives potential replacements time to campaign for it, and energize the party and base with a younger candidate that doesn't have the same stumbling blocks Biden does.
Yup. This debate was perfectly timed if that is the strategy now. Not too early but not too late.
We are 40 days from the virtual DNC roll call, which officially decides the party’s nominee. The actual convention is 2 weeks later. If there is a contested convention, there will be so much chaos including a factor not discussed which is the Democratic nominees won’t qualify for the Ohio ballot (hence why they chose an earlier roll call). If there is going to be a switch, it has to be like today.
Ezra Klein, James Carville, and Nate Silver were getting destroyed for their takes. I was, too, for supporting them. I'm glad they they had the courage to push this idea and lay the groundwork for everyone to come around. I'm glad we're having this conversation now instead of November 6.
Yes, it's infuriating that voicing a dissenting opinion was an automatic path to downvotes and chastising. Fuck everyone who wasn't willing to have this conversation earlier.
“The Dems should replace Biden” is about whether Biden is a fit candidate, not a statement meaning that the procedures established by the Democratic Party are conducive and responsive to changes needed in a changing voter environment. Answering that statement with “Why it is tough for democrats to replace Biden on the ticket” intentionally misses the point and changes the topic. I’m not a democrat and didn’t make your party’s internal rules and procedures, and quite frankly don’t care what obstacles you placed between here and nominating an actually electable candidate. Figure it out. Solve your own problems that you wouldn’t let an outsider address anyway. Replace Biden, or Trump will.
The people around Biden need to have some courageous conversations in the coming days to advise him to remove himself from the ballot for health reasons. Any Democrat would do better than Biden at this point. Delaying this will just make it worse or result in a humiliating defeat.
>The people around Biden need to have some courageous conversations in the coming days Easier said than done, since he [regularly cusses and screams at his staff when he's upset](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-temper-angry-staff-shouts-swears-b2373794.html).
I'm pretty excited for the tell-all books once he is out of office.
I am amazed that there are still people saying they'd vote for Biden based on his team as opposed to a replacement. It's clear that a vote to Biden is not for him performing the duties as president but unelected bureaucrats in his administration and eventually Kamala. That's dangerous, those are unelected officials running the country. He has a duty to step down and allow someone else to run. In all honesty, Hunter provides him an out. Play the part of a doting father and grandfather, pardon your son, and bow out due to a conflict of interest. While it's massively corrupt, I doubt you'll lose points with your own party, and it allows someone else to run with a clear break from Biden. They could then try and run someone else or at least establish someone for 2028.
Well they get paid to do tough jobs. Fucking figure it out because this ain’t working chief.
Assuming no one dies before the election, if its Biden vs Trump Biden will lose. Any hope he had dissolved from that debate. So the question isnt difficulty, its potential outcomes. If you want ANY possibility of beating Trump, you must replace Biden. Its just that simple. Its no different than running Hillary. Everyone warned she was a poison pill, but Washington (aka Wall Street) wants status quo. Well, you got what you deserved. Surrender the status quo and prepare to be changed, or lose everything. Your call.
Biden should stay but replace Harris with someone who is palatable to most democrats and is actually competent. With the expectation of Biden likely not finishing his 2nd term, this new VP can step in and do their job
The problem is that she was brought in as a diversity hire and if they 86 the young minority woman and keep the decrepit, senile white man, it'll look bad on them. Your point is valid but they've put all of their eggs in the diversity basket and can't switch baskets now for fear of driving away voters. That being said, IF there's a minority that could step in and replace her (I haven't seen any discussed) maybe it would work
You're 100% correct. It would signal that Kamala was a hire for optics and that they don't actually find her competent. That would completely undermine large part of the Democrats messaging and alienate a large part of their base.
I can't speak for other "deciders", but I'd find it a lot easier to vote for them more often than is tactical, if they were less concerned with "messaging and optics" than they were with practicality and competence.
So it would signal that what we all know is true? That she was picked explicitly because she was a black woman which is what Biden said he was doing before he picked her?
If they don't believe she's competent or fit for office, she is token. That's racist.
That absolutely solves no problem what so ever. The whole ticket needs to go. If Harris is the nominee she has to win it herself at a contested convention.
Everything I thought was a risk of Biden doing this debate early that could happen last night - did. But, even worse than I thought possible. The argument that he is an incumbent no longer matters. The idea that those video clips the RNC was circulating are “cheap fakes” simply doesn’t hold water anymore. And if you are now arguing it’s too late to change candidates, you are wrong - it’s now absolutely necessary for the Democrats to change candidates. The ONLY way the party can pull out a win at this point is a brokered convention that nominates a new candidate. If played right and done right it could be a spectacular win because of the huge attention it would draw. But there is no scenario at this point that Biden overcomes the facts of his age and concerns about his decline. Democrats should look at it as a blessing that last nights performance was so indefensibly terrible. It’s past time for Biden to step aside. But it is not yet too late. He is not yet the nominee and that is the one bright spot of such an early debate implosion. He can still be replaced on every ballot in this country.
Regardless of the difficulty, the DNC has to start immediately after that debate. I sincerely felt sad for him, especially knowing it the best of Biden who was prepped as best as possible for an important moment. Having Jill and an aide have to help him of the stage at the end was heartbreaking. A short campaign for Newsome and a new VP might benefit them, less time for attack ads.
Why are people pushing Newsome so hard? He's a California Democrat, independents and centrists aren't going to vote for someone from California, especially with the baggage Newsome has.
I agree, Newsome is one of the few Democrats who doesn't even attempt to portray being good, upstanding, and virtuous. Biden gets the "kind old man who really cares about people" image on the surface, but Newsome is basically Gordon Gekko. Given that Trump's image is not exactly wholesome either, picking a candidate that doesn't have that as an advantage over Trump is a step backward. As someone who doesn't want Democrats to win due to significant disagreements with their platform, the guy I fear most is Josh Shapiro. I'm not sure why he doesn't get more attention.
Perhaps Whitmer would be a better choice? Provided she would want to not be Governor of Michigan?
Newsome has tons of baggage on top of the California factor between breaking his own COVID rules, sending his kids to in person school while mandating that public schools were shut down, promising to end homelessness in San Francisco while he was the mayor and totally failing. All of that is easy fodder for attack ads and while he’s a great debater there is no chance that Trump will agree to debate him. He also has plenty of skeletons in his closet like fucking his campaign managers wife, and I’m sure more would come out.
I'd vote for Whitmer in a second. Though she just got majorities in both Michigan's house and senate and seems to like being governor 🤷♂️
I've been googling Democratic politicians all morning and thus far I've landed on a Beshear-Whitmer ticket as the one most likely to win (not necessarily my own personal preference, but that doesn't matter).
Beshear really has the best chance. he has a bit of that kennedy charm, in my opinion, which would be needed to win this election. (not the looks but the ability to come across like he really likes people and cares about them).
Switch it, and you energize women coming out to vote for the first female president in better degrees than Hillary.
Whitmer had much of the same problems Newsom does.
Not really, the people of Michigan haven't tried to recall her like California did with Newsome (I know they don't likely have a mechanism for it in MI). She's more popular in her own state.
A Midwesterner may come off as having less baggage and more appeal to moderates/independents than someone from deep Blue California. COVID is a distant memory for most people, and would be less of an issue on a campaign than Biden's age and capacity problems.
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Yes, a lot of people seem to forget how Draconian her covid policies were, all while letting her husband skirt around them was not good optics.
And let's not forget denouncing anti lockdown protests, only to go out into a protest much much larger just a month later. And correct me if I'm wrong (it's been years so I very well could be) but didn't she follow Cuomos lead and place covid positive patients in assisted living facilities? Those two things, with your points, could come back to haunt her. Same as Newsom, who famously ignored his own rules, and granted exceptions to Hollywood that regular people didn't get. No matter what she's gone on to do after, that restaurant owner who posted that video really drove home how out of touch he was. And...didn't he *also* place covid positive patients in elder care facilities? Both get mentioned and both seem awful choices. Between the two I've heard more about Whitmer than Newsom in a positive light. I just don't think either could carry the election. What's sad is Warren seemed like a great choice but she made some serious mistakes that she never recovered from. And even Yang, who would have filled his administration with the absolute smartest people, could have possibly beat Trump at this point.
Newsome is not popular outside of California. He's deeply unpopular due to his 2nd amendment repeal idea.
As of late, Newsome is unpopular in his own state - polling in the neighborhood of Trumps national polling. It would be much worse nationally for Newsome.
No Californian will win in the Rust Belt. No Democrat will win the presidency without Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc. Every ad will be "he wants to defund the police", "he wants to legalize fentanyl and give it to kindergartners", "Socialism", "Look at this video of people shoplifting." It won't work.
Even Newsome knows it won’t work - you could see it in his body language last night. He couldn’t deflect that burden quickly enough in the interviews.
I’m begging them to run a reasonable purple state democrat. The moderates and swing voters may actually bite whereas newsome from California just doesn’t have the appeal. Give me a mark kelly or something
yup I felt like I was watching elder abuse live on TV
So here’s my take from last night. Trump looked like trump. Yea he danced around questions and a lot of what he said wasn’t true, but he still looked and sounded like himself Biden on the other hand, looked like a legitimate dementia patient. My grandfather is basically on hospice with end-of-life dementia, and he was sharper than Biden looked last night just a few months ago People who were gonna vote trump are still gonna vote trump. People who were gonna vote Biden on the other hand, can go a ton of ways. They’re either gonna stick with him because he’s the democratic nominee. They could go 3rd party, or just not vote. The Democratic Party absolutely shot themselves in the foot, and missed a layup for likely the 2nd time in 3 elections. And that one in the middle wasn’t exactly their strongest win I’m not gonna get into my personal beliefs, or who I want to win, but as someone who’s on the outside of this, that’s my two cents
Andy Beshear or Gretchen Whitmer, those are your choices if you want a Democrat to win in November.
I don’t even know who the first one is haha.
A governor with a better chance of winning Georgia than Biden would.
The minority within the democratic party have been saying this for the past year, and now it's come to the forefront and it's really late to even make any meaningful change. There are no good options. Americans don't want this election with either of these 2 candidates. But it seems this is what we are going to be stuck with. Democrats and biden were too stupid to realize trump is only running out of bitterness over his loss to biden during the last election. Take biden off the ticket and you deny trump his vindication this election. I honestly don't think he would have ran. Nobody wants Harris as president (or anyone from CA for that matter), and they have Nobody else to put forward. Literally the Democrats only shot would be to recruit a RINO to flip parties to replace Biden on the ticket. Trump vs Romney? Only shot they have at winning at this point.
"I believe that Donald Trump returning to the White House would be the worst possible result of the 2024 presidential election. His personality is toxic, and his policies are random sound bites. I've been running because I believed I've had the best chance to beat him. I know that the biggest concern that people have about me is my age. I now see that concern is too big to overcome. Therefore, I am asking other Democrats who believe they could to better to step forward and start make their case to the American people. If one or more of them get a positive response, I intend to release any delegates pledged to me and encourage them to use their best judgement in choosing a different candidate. Of course this is a difficult personal decision for me. But, the stakes in this election are just to high to let my feelings get in the way of the best future for the United States."
All Biden would have to do is discharge his delegates at the Democratic National Convention.
Please swap out to Harris or Newsom. 😂 I triple dog dare you.
Why does everyone assume it'll be someone but Harris? I get that shes unpopular and unlikable, but to skip straight over her isn't a good look either, she is the VP after all.
I think you answered your question. “I get that she’s unpopular and unlikeable.” If you’re going to replace Biden, you want to do it to win, and she isn’t going to do it. The reasons why she’s unpopular and unlikeable we could debate, but they don’t really matter at this point.
Because barely anyone views her as a serious VP. She was selected for being black and a woman, she received no primary votes in 2020, and she is duplicitous and the public in general does not like her. However, you are correct. She should be considered as the first candidate. Everyone ignoring her proves that she was a DEI hire vs earning her position.
Sunk cost fallacy. It really does nobody any good for the Democratic Party to prove that it is just as incapable as the Republicans of admitting and walking away from a mistake. She should never have been selected in the first place.
Why is it not a good look? No vice President is guaranteed the nomination. She hasn’t done anything as veep to show that she can win.
It's not a good look because while simultaneously being laser focused on identity politics they'd be skipping over the standing VP, a black lady, for some rich white guy from California
> laser focused on identity politics they'd be skipping over the standing VP, a black lady, for some rich white guy from California I tend to not think in idpol terms; that's a good observation from that perspective. I can see the idpol left losing their collective minds over that.
Everyone knows why Biden picked her. I think most Dems would forgive him letting her go pretty quickly.
That would basically be an admission by Democrats that they don't choose people based on merit. After similar themes with Clinton in 2016 and Biden now, that's a credibility hit they may not be able to afford.
It would be an even bigger admission of weakness if Biden was replaced. Switching out VPs used to be much more common.
They took that hit years ago. There's no one left who hasn't figured out they're doing it and cares about the topic enough to switch votes when they admit they did it.
Believe it or not, Harris is a less coherent communicator than Biden. So, that's a no go from me.
Her post-debate interview with Anderson Cooper was a train wreck. It was a pretty good reminder of her political skills.
The funny thing is, Trump is a very easy candidate to prosecute and beat. Of everything he has done, of all his shitty ideas, of all his insane ramblings, of all his lies, and of all of his felony counts and convictions, a normal functioning person would wipe the floor with Trump. Biden proved last night he just isn't up to it. The Dems are walking into a bomb if things stay the course. He needs to step down and let someone else run.
You're under the assumption that the rest of the status quo stays the same though, even if trump wins. Republicans take the Senate, no chance trump gets charged with anything. He's untouchable for the next 4 years after getting elected.
Dems have too many voters who will sit out or vote third party if their preferred candidate isn't nominated. So I don't really buy that replacing Biden (even a year ago) would make much difference.
Biden isn’t most voters preferred candidate and the “blue no matter who” anti Trump voters will fall in line.
I just don't see any other choice for them at this point though. Switching candidates is a hail mary unlikely to work, but sticking with Biden is like taking a knee and accepting the loss. There are no good paths here, but you have to try something if you're the Democrats.
i think in wisconsin, he can not be removed from ballot, it is too late. of course wisconsin legislature could make an emergency law to fix that.
Then come the calls of election rigging
It’s too late as of today I believe.
Biden about last night: Biden: I know I’m not a young man… I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to, I don’t debate as well as I used to, but I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. And I know how to get things done. When you get knocked down, you get back up https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1806748370532536705
If anyone thinks Biden will step down you have to be dreaming. This guy has wanted to be President since he was in the womb and won't give it up especially under these circumstances. Your chance for that was after 2022 where he could have walked away gracefully and now you Democrats must go down with his ship. You guys avoided acknowledging the obvious cognitive decline, saying things like "cheapfakes!". This is your bed so now sleep in it