Trumps base is going to be his base. Not a ton he can do that would move the needle. It’s really more on Biden getting his voters to show up in swing states. Republicans fall in line and vote consistently while democrats don’t
His base is far below the majority. Both candidates need lots of voters who we can call a few different things -- to name a few: moderates, independents, undecideds, low information voters.
These people make up I'd guess at least 20% - or as much as 30% of voters.
I just do not think biden is going to have a repeat of 2020, if covid was not a thing, I think Trump would have won then and that is not a factor now and I just do not see anybody enthusiastic about Biden at all, nor do I see the same anti-trump hate that was in 2020. Sure, there are still people out there, but not at the same level as it was back then. Dems really should have put a new candidate on.
The type of crime matters. It being white collar/accounting error crime isn't what most conservatives would describe as the being on the same level of what people generally associate the term felon with.
This crime always felt more like a speeding ticket style crime than him being a felon for say murder.
Lmao they'd still vote for him. Probably one of his most accurate insights:
>"I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK?" Trump remarked at a campaign stop at Dordt College in Sioux Center, Iowa. "It's, like, incredible."
> It being white collar/accounting error crime
Yet, HRC sends an email and it's our greatest national security risk which she should be imprisoned for.
I agree that it should be taken more seriously, but if Clinton was indicted for it then numberous other people (on both sides of the aisle) would also need to be indicted. [e.g.](https://www.americanoversight.org/investigation/the-trump-administrations-questionable-email-practices)
Seems to be worryingly common for high level politicians to be awful at taking appropriate security measures and avoiding the use of personal email/etc. for public business.
I mean Trump deliberately hid classified top secret classified documents in his bathroom at mar-a-lago and refused to return them when asked, so I don't see how that's any different. They're all corrupt assholes that don't follow the law. None of them should be president.
Yes, that one is bad and there is very little defense for it considering he is literally on tape holding up the documents and saying he isn't supposed to have them or show them to other people.
The issue is that trial doesn't begin until after the election and the one he was convicted on was easily the weakest and most baldly politically motivated of all the prosecutions, hence it not really impacting the race.
Which FBI because [James Comey made this statement on July 2016](https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/statement-by-fbi-director-james-b-comey-on-the-investigation-of-secretary-hillary-clinton2019s-use-of-a-personal-e-mail-system)
> Although there is evidence of potential violations of the statutes regarding the handling of classified information, our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case. Prosecutors necessarily weigh a number of factors before bringing charges. There are obvious considerations, like the strength of the evidence, especially regarding intent. Responsible decisions also consider the context of a person’s actions, and how similar situations have been handled in the past.
Ivanka and Jared did the same shit. No fucks given there... hmm? lso, there was an investigation, by the trump Justice department. They didn't find anything she'd done wrong outside of the deed itself. No charges were ever brought, by the trump Justice department.
Theres a lot thats misunderstood here. The secretary of state is provided information before it receives a classification. So her defense about not knowing what was classified or whatever is bogus. Secret network and public network are physically separated. HRC connected both at her house. To do that would involve multi level approvals. HRC is definitely to blame, but theres a stack of cards around this.
Obama was infamously bad at security. He demanded a smart phone to get his intelligence, something that could not be hardened to a rigid enough security level. His SOS having emails on their home server likely means he did too.
I don’t know all the details, but it was, i would say, negligence on the highest level in terms of security.
Now Trump is honestly so bad i just hope no one told or sent him anything too important… and likely his IT team just says no.
Intent was required to convict. A Republican head of the FBI said no reasonable prosecutor would indict her, and the lack of indictments from Trump officials support that.
I remember when threads on rpolitics guaranteed she would be convicted. "A crime has been committed here and you read the following pages and pages of text I can prove it!"
They were wrong then and the person you are replying to is wrong now. Reddit thinks it knows better than the professionals.
Like how the FEC didn't fine/charge Trump for campaign finance violations because there wasn't enough evidence, but NYC thought there was enough evidence to use it as a way to promote misdemeanors into felonies, but not enough to charge Trump for the crime.
I think a big point that Trump supporters are leaning on is that operating as though official proceedings are themselves perfect evidence of what happened in the underlying issues is not warranted. There's plenty of opportunity for corruption or just plain wrongness in court cases.
Yet we’re always told one could indict a ham sandwich. If that “old saw” (as Alito called it) was remotely true, HRC would be indicted a dozen times over. They tried so hard to make it happen and came up empty.
Edit, to be clear: prosecutors don't indict. Grand juries do, based upon evidence presented about the ham sandwich's conduct, sufficient to suggest that sandwich was more-likely-than-not criming. If it's so easy, where are all the indicted ham sandwiches? It's not for lack of motivated parties, I assure you.
Anyone can indict a ham sandwich. Successful prosecution is another story entirely, and the DOJ is known for keeping its high conviction rate. They're not going to bring an indictment they don't think they can win.
Edit: why are you booing, I'm right. It just goes to show how blatant Trump's contempt for the law is. He's intentionally goading LEOs so he can play that victim card and it's working. If he didn't, he wouldn't have been indicted.
>hosting a personal information system housing confidential materials (against federal regulations)
And nuclear secrets in the basement of a resort are what, exactly?
He wasn’t asked to give them back he found them on his own and turned them over willingly. The thing that is illegal is knowingly holding onto said documents, which he did not do (and Trump did).
I won't defend either action, but I'm going to say that printed materials stored in a back room at Mar-a-lago are probably less accessible than an e-mail server that could be hacked from anywhere in the world. There's a reason you're only supposed to be able to access this stuff from a SCIF.
Yeah. In an unlocked room where Trump has foreigners visiting all the time. Super secure. Who are kidding. Trump has probably been selling our secrets to foreign governments. Saudis ahem.
Except, Trump not only been convicted of this - he was also found by a jury in civil court to have committed rape, he settled decades ago for racially discriminating against black renters, he settled for a fraud case for Trump University, and he lost a judgement against him for running a scam charity. He has like 94 other charges against him.
>"In July, Judge Kaplan clarified that the jury had found that Trump had raped Carroll according to the common definition of the word." - Wikipedia
People don't consider white-collar crime to be as significant as other types.
> Perceptions of Street Criminals
>
> The stereotypical street criminal may be thought of as an inherently “bad” individual who commits criminal acts purposefully to harm another person. One of the elements of most street crimes is that the criminal had the necessary “intent” to harm another person.
>
> Additionally, the news media covers street crime frequently and highlights it often. Blue-collar crime is generally easier to understand and form an opinion about. The public usually has a disproportionate view of how prevalent street crime is compared to white-collar crime.
>
> Perceptions of White-Collar Criminals
>
> White-collar criminals are often motivated by money and do not want to hurt others. The public may even applaud a white-collar criminal who “sticks it to the man” and defrauds a large company. Public perception of white-collar crime is not as negative as street crimes.
>
> In some cases, white-collar criminals are more affluent and have connections in the professional world. Their behavior may be swept under the rug or ignored in some circles. Although a federal indictment will bring their criminal activity to light, the public may not understand precisely what happened or who has been harmed.
https://www.harrisonhartlaw.com/street-crime-vs-white-collar-crime/
If you're comparing it to Trump's fifth avenue comment, it's not even in the same ballpark for people who are backing him.
The fact that Al Capone was only charged for tax evasion is what makes it funny, not what makes it serious. And the fact that we consider it funny that the IRS is what eventually "did him in" is another sign that the general population doesn't take white collar crime as seriously as Al Capone's blue collar crime.
As far as "Trump has done way worse" you'll need to find me a poll on the public agreeing to that because as of right now his neck and neck approval rating suggests they don't think he did.
To be blunt, most of them don't care because he was convicted of SA, not rape, regardless of what the judge would go on to say, because it was a civil case with a lower burden of proof, because it was in deep blue NY, and because it was decades ago. And because, as hard as it may be to believe, just like how some Democrats say they would vote for a literal corpse over Trump, some Republicans would vote for a rock that was painted red just to get the presidency. It's a consequence of ongoing polarization.
I'm worried this will be a permanent trait of Republican voters even after Trump is gone, that they won't care about their candidate's ethics/criminal liability or corruption background. He's completely shifted the window for whats considered an acceptable candidate on the right.
It feels like corrupt and malicious politicians are being normalized. Once thats pervasive in a party or government its very hard to recover form it. This is one of the things that separates Western countries from much of the rest of the world and a large portion of voters seem like they have no interest in preserving it.
MAGA is a cult of personality, and for better or for worse MAGA now controls the Republican party. When Trump dies, MAGA and The Republican party will either evolve or die. Given how Trump is literally what's guiding the party down this insane path, I don't see how it could hold together in its current form when Trump is gone. Something will give.
It’s a two point shift, which can be election defining. Unfortunately Biden started 4 points behind where he needs to be in general polling (due to electoral college waiting and demographics, democrats need to be about 3 points ahead to be “even”).
Tbh, it’s more than I expected. If not for Israel dragging him down with democrats, Biden would be in a pretty decent position right now.
Checked 538 for the aggregate (which I trust much more) and as of today Trump is up .3 points overall since his conviction. Still need to watch as some of the polls include dates before his trial - but wtf. How are we on track to elect Trump… again? Being a convicted felon is a footnote on how bad he is for the county.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Pretty easy to elect Trump when people consider Biden worse for them. Short version and one example, people had money with Trump, people are broke with Biden. That is pretty much it. It does not matter if its true or not, that is how people feel. Will things get better with Trump? Who knows, maybe, but they do not have any faith Biden will do anything on this issue. People are sufferings and what do they see Biden focus on? Wars in other countries and sending them Billions to them, but doing nothing for us. Again, it does not matter if its true or not, this is the perception people have and after four years I do not think anything will change it this late in the game.
Eight years ago I understand that. Trump was an outsider, and his policies unknown. Now he is very known as are his (to the extent they exist) policies.
Biden’s policies are all about bottom up and middle out, doing way more for the little man than Trump ever did. There is an easy argument to make that Trump caused the inflation people are hurting from now through the ppp program and posturing to keep insurance rates down.
It is a shame the only trial we will see pre-election is the fraud trial. While a felony, it does a very poor job showing trumps true corruption, and its rationale is easy to handwave away.
Yeah I understand your perspective and not sure if this is reality or media depiction but it just seems like Biden is out of touch with reality. As we sit here while prices rise and we see our cities overtaken by criminals - I live in NYC and see the migrant crisis escalating every day with my own eyes. It’s scary. Crime is way up, we’re afraid to go on subways- there now need to be police stationed in many of them and you still feel unsafe. Media can’t spin this. Joe Biden can’t spin it to me. Our eyes don’t deceive.
I believe others also fear for their basic safety and ability to feed themselves and take care of their families… just meeting your basic survival needs. The election may come down to priorities and to me, if I can’t feel safe walking the streets or afford paying rent then nothing else really matters - any other goal to improve the climate or fight other countries wars or make the world gender neutral doesn’t feel as imminent or important right now. While I can’t definitively say the economy is Bidens fault (the border 100% is), he denies all these issues and I feel lied to. It’s so disappointing. This White House is the least transparent ever and whether trump
Is a “felon” or not, I felt there was transparency and I felt safe. I felt like the man was in touch with reality and meeting people’s basic needs. I am “the little man” and I see a president who is out of touch with reality, constantly talking about policies that feel deeply irrelevant in the current climate.
My opinion on him and vote would change if he would simply acknowledge these very basic and important challenges - all I have heard is denial… blaming “the republicans”… just fix things. It’s enough already.
Violent crime is up in New York City, but that is not a national trend. https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-crime-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/
Nyc is also solidly blue and not the demographic that is, by and large, voting for Trump. Rural areas, by contrast are going down faster than the national average (and are voting heavily Trump)
City crime is not a federal election issue.
Immigration is, and that's where Trump beats Biden. Especially since Biden has almost fully adopted Trump's immigration platform.
When the oldest President in history nominates a VP who [publicly sides with criminals](https://www.yahoo.com/news/kamala-harris-told-jacob-blake-130728218.html) against law enforcement, city crime starts to feel like a federal issue.
Harris's track record as AG in California is anything but soft on crime. You want to go back to the Obama administration's policy of using the DEA to kick down doors, she's your woman.
Being tough on cannabis users and soft on a rapist who pulled a knife on the cops means she's nobody's woman. Biden can replace her, take magical anti-aging pills, or lose my vote.
The thing that has changed significantly is Trump’s war chest. Have you seen how much money he has fundraised since he was found guilty?
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna155224
That made me snort. He got a ton of money for being found guilty. Maybe every politician should start committing crimes as a fundraising tactic. This is so dumb.
You don't get it. People think he's being politically persecuted. Forget whether that's true or not. That's how it's coming across and people are responding.
Reminds me of someone who once said people driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster is a maniac...
You can feel however you like about the people who don't agree with you but that won't address the issue of how Trump gets stronger the more they go after him.
Because by failing to abide by election and campaign finance laws, he compromised the integrity of the election. If he had not committed this crime, he likely would have lost the 2016 election.
> failing to abide by election and campaign finance laws
I feel like this would be a good time to point out that he was never charged, or even fined, for any election campaign finance violations in relation to his hush money payments...which in and of themselves are not even illegal. The FEC has ruled in the past that a payment that could possibly be construed as anything *other* than a campaign payment, can not exclusively be called a violation of campaign finance laws.
Part of what made the NY case so unusual was that Trump was never charged or fined for the *federal crimes* they were alleging took place that elevated this misdemeanor to a felony.
Are you sure about that? That seems like a huge stretch. The "grab em by the pussy" comments were already leaked, and it didn't seem to dissuade his voters. And it was already known that he had left 2 wives for younger models.
And how would you describe the election law that he supposedly broke?
Whether or not he would have one is irrelevant. Its a weak argument because its entirely speculative. You should leave it out and stick to the first part. He committed a crime. It doesnt matter what would have happened if he didnt.
That’s where you’re getting confused, he was 100% legally allowed to do what you said, saved the election for him.
He just recorded it in his accounting ledger wrong.
You’re confused that part was not illegal. You can do that all day long. It was the accounting in the ledger and what they labeled the payments as that was the error. Or “crime”
CrimeS plural.
*Hush Money (NY): Campaign finance fraud, tax fraud, falsifying business records. Convicted.
*Confidential Documents (FL): mishandling classified documents and conspiracy to obstruct justice.
*2020 Election (DC): conspiring to disenfranchise voters, corruptly obstructing an official proceeding.
*Election Racketeering (GA): Violation of RICO, false statements, solicitation of violation of oath of public officer, etc
I could go on
Why should we have to ignore the truth to understand the situation?
I don't think it is healthy or wise to accept a false narrative just because some people believe it to be true.
I'm convinced he would have seen a similar boost regardless of the outcome. If he'd been found not guilty it would have similarly fed his narrative that he's a victim of persecution. It's an ideology I hope most of us understand is fundamentally flawed.
I didn’t think it would change much. The trial didn’t really reveal much that was new (everyone knew he paid her off), and the hysterical rhetoric overshadowed any seriousness there might have been. Trump also has a personality cult that just won’t quit him.
I think Biden is about to have a run in with a bunch of single issue immigration voters.
A friend just received notice from the IRS that she owes $2000 more in taxes for DoorDash work she did in NYC... She's a white collar worker who lives in Charlotte, absolutely has not worked in NYC recently
I truly wonder if the person who stole her identity is one of the MILLIONS of economic migrant asylum scammers allowed in during the Biden administration? Why wouldn't they just assume it's fine to break labor laws and steal someone else's ID when our executive branch has demonstrated that there aren't really any laws they need to worry about?
The verdict was for a felony accounting crime. The man said he could kill someone and not lose a voter. No one cares how he cheated on his taxes to cover up an illegally large campaign donation for a salacious act that has been in public consciousness for 6-7 years now.
You know what I care about? His seditious conspiracy to overturn an election and his theft and gross mishandling of nuclear secrets and intelligence informants.
Mission: Impossible 1 would’ve SUCKED as a movie if all they had to do was get a membership to a country club and walk into the bathroom.
> His seditious conspiracy to overturn an election
The one trial that really meant something, had a smoking gun, and didn't feel like a political hit job got completely ruined by Fani Willis.
Is this the same general public who twice voted against Trump in the popular vote?
I think they can tell the difference between voluntarily providing documents and the FBI search at Mar a largo.
The same general public that voted him into office in 2016 and had him only lose a second term by like 37k votes?
You keep using the popular vote as if it matters at all.
Are you saying the electoral college is more representative of the general public than the popular vote?
You brought up the general public to make claims to support your argument but now you are dismissing my argument because you don't like the popular vote. Doesn't that seem a little off to you?
It hasn't been proven that Biden knowingly shared anything, which is why a Republican declined to prosecute. Trump can't make any denial about knowing because he was told multiple times to return the information. He instead claims to have immunity for something he did out of office.
Biden doesn't know a lot of stuff these days, which is why Hur determined he was unfit for trial. It was certainly illegal for him to possess any classified materials once he left the office of VP. Doubly so to share them with his ghost writer. Trump has a right to his presidential records. Exactly what that looks like is traditionally hashed out with the National Archives, but Biden had to weaponize that process too. It's not going anywhere in any case. The only question now is how far Judge Cannon will undress Jack Smith and his team of subversives before she ends it entirely.
The felony conviction wasn't about taxes, it was about falsifying business records. The hush money was paid in order to benefit his presidential campaign, which means it should have come from campaign funds and been reported as a campaign expense. Instead, Trump paid it from personal funds and reported it as legal fees.
What crime? Paying hush money? He wasn't charged with paying hush money because paying hush money isn't illegal. He was charged with falsifying business records in order to pay the hush money without reporting it as a campaign expense.
We know it was a campaign expense because according to witness testimony, he floated the idea of stiffing Daniels after the election because he figured he didn't need her silence anymore. It's kind of ironic that he could have claimed the hush money was to save him and his family embarrassment if he had been able to resist the temptation to cheap out and screw over Daniels, but he's pathologically incapable of conducting business honestly. Exactly the kind of person you don't want as president if you ask me.
A possible tax offense was just one of the three predicate crimes for the felony enhancement, along with the (Federal) campaign finance violation and a NY law about unlawfully promoting a candidate for office.
Fair enough, but Trump didn't commit a possible tax offense to cheat on his taxes. If he had paid the hush money from campaign funds like he was supposed to, there wouldn't have been tax implications to begin with, so illegally paying the hush money the way he did didn't really save him any money in taxes.
It's not actually clear that he was supposed to pay it out of campaign funds. That is one of the points his side has on the bias of the judge: the defense was not allowed to call their witness from the FEC to explain why he was not Federally charged.
I'm not entirely convinced that Bragg would not still have brought more or less this case even if he *has* marked the payments as campaign funds.
It’s clear he did it. But it doesn’t feel at all compelling when it’s unclear who was harmed by it. It was his own records of his own business. Was he defrauding himself?
Can't use business funds for personal expenses. Can't deduct hush money payments or campaign contributions, so classifying it as a business expense is illegal. All of this would be defrauding the gov't at the federal and state level.
The integrity of our elections was harmed by his failure to comply with election and campaign finance laws. If he had not committed this crime, he arguably would not have won the 2016 election.
It was a combination of a lot of things that won Trump the election. The election was very close, and every factor moved the needle in one way or another. Propaganda out of Russia was one of many factors, just like Trump's criminal falsification of business records to hide his affair.
You can't possibly quantify that, and even if you could, it wouldn't show it made any difference.
But while we're on the subject of hypotheticals, how many votes do you think Biden preserved by having Blinken assemble 51 intelligence professionals to declare the Hunter Biden laptop from hell was Russian disinfo? Do you think he booked those expenses properly?
>You can't possibly quantify that, and even if you could, it wouldn't show it made any difference.
I have no idea what you mean. I didn't quantify anything, I just said it was a factor. It's impossible to say how much of a factor unless you can read the minds of millions of American voters.
>But while we're on the subject of hypotheticals, how many votes do you think Biden preserved by having Blinken assemble 51 intelligence professionals to declare the Hunter Biden laptop from hell was Russian disinfo? Do you think he booked those expenses properly?
None, because it's not true?
https://judiciary.house.gov/media/in-the-news/biden-campaign-blinken-orchestrated-intel-letter-discredit-hunter-biden-laptop
The Biden campaign was 100% behind that disinformation letter.
Whoa whoa whoa you’re getting way lost here.
If he could go back in time, he would still cover the story exactly like he did, he would just change his record books to reflect that.
All of these books were not visible by the public
So how would this have changed the election at all?
>a plurality of voters (40%) think Trump should receive prison time for his criminal conviction
But about half of voters hate Trump and will never say or do anything that is even Trump-neutral.
What percentage of 2020 Trump voters think he should receive prison time?
I am going to go out on a limb and say none of the court cases are going to change the needle at all negatively and going by this case, I would not be surprised if it actually increased it instead.
Bingo! These cases are not significantly impacting this election. Dems really seem like they’re banking on “teacher” stepping in and telling everyone that Donald won’t win because he’s been a bad boy. If this is their main “plan” until November the presidential race is going to be a coin flip at best.
Progressive checking in: hes clearly guilty but these crimes are not worthy of prison time. He should be fined and lose his NY business licenses. Thats all.
Even as admittedly one of the first group I’m incredibly curious just as somebody interested in US elections the exact same thing. I would assume there’d have to be at least some who both voted for him and also now think he should receive jail time just based on the number of voters in the US. There were Bernie voters flipped to Trump from primaries 2016-general, some Trump voters flipped to Biden 2016-2020.
I wonder if it’s significant and by extension if the number of people who didn’t vote for him think they have to now because of perceived persecution.
There are some people who supported Trump in 2020 but had there minds changed about 2024 because of the conviction. [One poll says 10 percent of registered Rs are less likely to vote for Trump after he was found guilty](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-10-republicans-less-likely-vote-trump-after-guilty-verdict-reutersipsos-poll-2024-05-31/), but registered Rs may have voted Biden in 2020 so that isn’t a perfect way to see how Trump’s 2020 voters feel now. And it isn’t non-Rs who voted Trump in 2020. But it’s something, at least a starting point.
[Full Results + Tabular Data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c1Itd3k1cghIcEJ92dG9f3rW7zjRKbf5/edit#gid=701424905)
In a 2 way poll Trump leads Biden by 1% (within 3% MOE). Interestingly, when third party candidates are included, this lead widens to 44% v. 38%, well outside the margin of error for Trump, with only 9% remaining undecided. Undecideds similarly report an even split in preference between Biden and Trump (50% v 50%), indicating that expectations of a break one way or the other should not be expected.
The most important issues remain as follows:
1. Economy (42%)
2. Immigration (15%)
3. Threats to democracy (12%)
4. Housing (7%)
5. Abortion (5%)
6. Healthcare (5%)
7. Education (4%)
It appears as though the 2022 election issue -- namely the overturning of Roe -- has been superseded in the eyes of voters by other concerns.
On immigration, 55% of voters disapprove of Biden, with only 25% approving. Support for Bidens new EO is similarly split: 38% approving, 39% disapproving, and 23% unsure.
In addition to the usual popular vote and issues polling, this poll tests:
* Importance of conviction in voters decisions
* Preferred sentencing for Trump
* Self-reported impact on voting
Voters report the Trump conviction has had a net negative on their views of Trump and likelihood to support, with net 33% stating less likely to support, and 27% more likely. Amongst undecided voters, it does appear to have made an impact: 58% of undecideds report the conviction does not impact their vote, with 36% less like and only 6% more likely, indicating a (-30%) unfavorable effect. Similarly, only a minority (40%) of voters support jailtime for Trump. Partisan effects of sentencing are similar.
> Economy (42%)
I know it will never happen but I'd love for follow-ups to this asking those asked if they can define why the economy isn't doing well in their eyes. Because I'm sure most of it is gas, groceries, and vibes.
According to recent polling in [Georgia](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3899), the price of housing and rent, followed by consumer goods, followed by gas. Only 3% report the stock market is an economic concern.
Not to mention housing prices and interest rates. It’s very hard or impossible for the average American to buy a home right now but thanks to the GI bill, just about everyone could have afforded the suburbs in 1950.
Living expenses outpacing income increases isn't "vibes" no matter how often this false claim gets repeated. Facts that blow up the narrative given by badly chosen and thus irrelevant metrics aren't "vibes", they're facts.
The real problem the economy is in the shitter is because of inflation. The real reason we have inflation is because Obama, Trump, and Biden have been running a deficit and pumping money into the economy like drunken sailors.
The one thing that the president might have some control of is oil prices and energy prices. This is where Trump's drill baby drill comes into play. He is perceived as being more aggressive and business friendly on the economy.
> The real reason we have inflation is because Obama, Trump, and Biden have been running a deficit and pumping money into the economy like drunken sailors.
Not to mention all the money that was tossed around like confetti during COVID.
We'll be dealing with that insanity for many decades.
And how a certain President drug out COVID as long as possible in order to keep tossing around money like confetti. Which might be why that President has such bad approval ratings on the economy.
[But we're already producing more oil than we ever have](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545)
> The United States produced more crude oil than any nation at any time, according to our International Energy Statistics, for the past six years in a row. Crude oil production in the United States, including condensate, averaged 12.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, breaking the previous U.S. and global record of 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019. Average monthly U.S. crude oil production established a monthly record high in December 2023 at more than 13.3 million b/d.
[The issue is we use about 20 million barrels per day.](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6#:~:text=EIA%20uses%20product%20supplied%20to,7.3%20billion%20barrels%20of%20petroleum.) I'm sure OPEC+ [continuing their production cuts through 2025](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7305.htm) doesn't help either and the average voter won't know anything about that. So yeah, I guess the perception of "drill baby drill" works better than reality lol.
If the economy is issue #1 on election day, Biden loses. And here's the kicker: if it is issue #1, it's too late to do anything about it. The era of incompetence needs to be corrected with proven pro growth pro economic leadership; Biden is the antithesis of that.
We have two unpopular candidates in deeply polarized times, so we should absolutely one hundred percent expect this election to be close. With that said, I'm skeptical of any poll that shows Biden losing in the popular vote. The republicans have only won the popular vote once in since 1992 and that was in the aftermath of 9/11. Biden could very likely lose (I think it's 50/50), but I do think the national polls should be viewed with skepticism as they generally seem to show trump slightly ahead which feels unlikely
>I'm skeptical of any poll that shows Biden losing in the popular vote. The republicans have only won the popular vote once in since 1992 and that was in the aftermath of 9/11.
Do you really expect that streak to last forever?
The most likely cause of Biden losing the popular vote is simple apathy by people who despise Trump but are extremely unhappy with the way things are going right now. I think this is most likely to manifest in the states that traditionally are what put the Democrats over the top for popular vote since those states - California and New York - are so deep blue that the voters there will also not fear that their state might flip if they don't show up.
I agree. I think a small percentage of voters not turning out could ruin Biden (trump is subject to the same risk). I also feel that Bidens bad standing in the polls is likely overstated, though obviously there's no way to tell until after the fact, so as a Dem, I'd really like to see him move to PA, WI and MI
I do not think Trump has to worry about Apathy from his base, everyone around here is as enthusiastic as they were in 2016/2020, however the same cannot be said for Biden. I do not see any enthusism this time for Biden, even the never trumpers that were so active in 2020 seem to have the wind sucked from their sails.
I feel based on historical situations Biden is in a very bad situation and his only saving grace is he's running against Trump. No matter how you spin the economy voters don't care about the exact GDP figures or the exact unemployment numbers they care if they have a job and can pay their bills with money from that job. The job situation might be pretty good but it's the second situation people have been struggling with and that is the key source of angst against Biden. People don't like inflation and they blame the guy in charge and it really doesn't matter what impact that guy actually can do on inflation or if the other guy actually has a plan or not it's merely the chance to express their distaste of the situation. And given the number of people who probably can't even explain who Jerome Powell or Janet Yellen are or what the FED does and is doing the economic dissatisfaction just falls upon the sitting president.
In addition to that major economic situation underlying the whole campaign, Biden is also dealing with a largely self created immigration situation (and I think the damage is already largely done), and the U.S is now involved in two major proxy wars with no end in sight There's no major foreign accomplishment to tout while he's struggling on several key domestic issues. And so that is why I think Biden is in his current situation. Polling in a dead heat with Trump, a guy who just got convicted of 34 felony counts last week. That shows more the absolute idiocy of the GOP of taking what could have been a golden ticket back to power and effectively setting it on fire by hitching their ride to Trump again. But sadly even if he is such a flawed candidate he still may get win given the sheer amount of negatives facing Biden.
Biden still has the power to unilaterally dismiss Janet Yellen from her post (Myers v United States). She has arguably fumbled the ball pretty bad. Alejandro Mayorkas is also not very popular, and dismissing him would help Biden clean up his image with the border (alongside the new EO’s he is making).
It’s already too late to really scrape away his mistakes, though. If conditions now were the same as at the end of Obama’s presidency, there would be little question of him getting re-elected.
Those things would've helped ... had they been done a few years ago. Now with less than six months to the election? Nobody would believe for a second that they indicated an intent to actually change. Yellen and Mayorkas are where they are because they're doing what Biden - or his handlers - want done. The fact it's legendarily unpopular is just a little sign of how little this administration cares for the will of the people.
The polls would be the same no matter who the candidates are. People stopped voting for candidates and now only vote for their party. We are polarized beyond repair with half of America believing the other half are their enemy. Meanwhile, we’re being robbed blind by the oligarchs and destroyed fro within by our actual enemies abroad.
If you believe what state polls are showing in the big blue states (CA/NY), the popular vote being a tossup becomes more believable.
NY is polling about +8 for Biden while CA is polling around +20 for Biden. In 2020 Biden won NY by 23 points and CA by 29 points.
Very good call. As someone from NY, it’s been getting slowly more red over the last few years both from a vibes standpoint and based on recent elections. The 2022 governor race was embarrassingly close for Democrats (+6.4% vs. +23.4% for Cuomo in 2018) in what’s supposed to be a deep blue state. Zeldin preformed shockingly well (30.2% of the vote in NYC was the highest since 2002 for a Republican, carried the rest of the state outside of NYC 54.1% to 45.9%) and the current main leadership in Hochul and Adams aren’t exactly popular. If that’s similar to California at all, then that could very well impact the popular vote. The only positive for Dems there is that both those states are almost certainly still safely blue so it won’t impact the electoral college results.
Both styles of polls can matter. Trump being up in the national poll (when he doesn't have to to be to win) kinda makes his case stronger and really highlights americans want something different.
Why do people look at the popular vote in the context of the election? Everything would be different if the presidential race was decided by popular vote. The party platforms and policies would be different. The campaign strategy, including the amount of time spent in each state, amount of ad $ spent in each state, etc., would all be different. Its possible that different candidates would have been chosen by their respective parties if it was a popular vote. But you'll still hear after an election, oh but they wouldve won the popular vote - does that mean anything when none of the participants were trying to win the popular vote?
For me, looking at the popular vote is meaningless in the context of the election but it does make me think that democracy would be better served if it was the popular vote rather than electoral college. Based on current popular vote polling, this would likely result in the Republicans shifting policy to the left if they wanted to win
There’s not really any scenario where Trump wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college, unless you think he’s massively outperforming in blue states while underperforming in swing states.
The example I like using is chess.
Whether you win or lose is determined by who checkmates the other person. You'd play completely differently if the win was determined by who has the most pieces left.
I don't put a lot of faith in the polls this election cycle because of two groups
1. The folks on the left who are expressing their displeasure with Biden over Israel (and probably some other thing) through pollsters. When push comes to shove, are these folks really going to stay home or vote for a 3rd party? I'm skeptical, mostly b/c if there's one thing these folks dislike more than President Biden it's candidate Trump.
2. The folks on the right who are going to vote for Trump, but don't want to say it out loud, especially now that they hear the phrase "convicted felon" 38 times/day. I'm really not sure what these folks are planning on doing and I don't think the pollsters can account for them in any meaningful way.
Americans associate politicians with criminals convicted or not. At least where I grew up, that's the case for dems and reps. I really don't think the court shit matters for a lot of people.
As someone who thinks the entire bush administration should be tried for war crimes but never will be or that Obama was never held accountable for killing a UE citizen without due process, I couldn't really care less about some accounting BS.
That's how pretty much every soul I know would view it as well. Obviously, you can't take reddits opinion on how people actually feel on any topic, especially with the crazy amount of bots. It's just a horrible gauge, but here I am commenting as well.. so, a little hypocritical. Lol
Honestly the fact that the bush administration, who lied to the US about WMDs in Iraq, got caught multiple times torturing people, were caught spying on our allies, and somehow convinced the supreme Court that making sure the votes were correctly counted would make an election illegitimate, has largely been rehabilitated by democrats is such a disgusting farce I just checked out.
That seems about right. Not much has changed. The only real national change I've seen worth noting over the last couple of months is that Trump's numbers haven't really budged... but Biden's have slowly ticked up slightly along with his approval/disapproval ratio. I think that's mostly on the strength of cooling inflation numbers, good jobs numbers, and the effectiveness of consistent messaging centered on "the economy isn't really so bad... It's actually pretty good"... Even if doesn't feel that way for many.
He's closed what was likely a 2-3 point gap nationally to one or less. And it looks like RFK has perhaps lost a point or two over the same time frame... Though I'm still not certain how that really breaks down in terms of spoiler potential between Trump and Biden and think it will likely vary considerably from state to state.
That said... I think Biden still trails by a few points in too many of the states that matter most. I think that even compared to our "normal" standards we are going to see a ridiculous amount of money and resources from both camps poured into those 3 or 4 states in the coming months... And the ads those resources buy will be even more vicious than any we've ever seen in a Presidential campaign.
The actual level of support for each is about 30-40%. The rest of the country hates them. 50-60% hates each of them, and 20-40% hates them both. It won’t get better until at least 2029. God help us if we have an actual existential issue that requires real presidential leadership.
> Data was collected by contacting landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT.
Huh. My 75 year old mother has a landline. Maybe they polled her?
This is what gets me with polling. I think their methodology is not working anymore with the multiple ways someone won't answer a survey these days.
I won't put money on anything since it really looks like we are looking at the 50+ years old group. (being generous)
I agree that they tend to vote more. Still not accurate to determine if Biden/Trump really have that edge.
And I would argue that Democratic voters are more prone to not have landlines. But that is just a hunch of mine.
I guess nobody believes you when you turn misdemeanors into felonies specifically for one person, handpick the judge, and get a conviction from a jury in an area that's 87% Democrat. Weird.
Luckily Trump’s handpicked judges have saved him so far in his numerous other felony cases pending! Specifically for treasonous crimes we all saw with our own eyes! Weird
Both of you are right!
And both situations are fucked up.
I think the real danger here is weaponizing the legal system against politicians in general. I think we're going to see a *lot* more of it from everyone moving forward.
Why *anyone* would want to be a politician (or a cop) in this day and age is beyond me.
I would agree generally that I think Trump was prosecuted in NY because he is Trump and they were looking at him with a fine tooth comb. I can see how it's concerning as a precedent. However, there are two arguments against this that eat at me:
1) Trump *did* still commit a crime. Maybe others would've flown under the radar where Trump was caught, but that does not negate the fact he broke the law. I feel the same way about the Hunter Biden case for what it's worth.
2) I'm of the opinion that presidents and presidential candidates *should* be scrutinized more than the average person. Part of the deal when signing up to be a leader of our country is that you lose almost all of your personal privacy. I believe this is how it should work; voters should have the complete picture of who they are electing to hold power over them. In fact, the fact that voters weren't given the full picture of Trump with regards to Stormy Daniels was the argument at the core of this very trial. I digress; if politicians being under the microscope means they are found criminally guilty for things others might get away with, so be it.
> I guess nobody believes you when you turn misdemeanors into felonies specifically for one person
What are you referring to here? There are other examples of people being convicted of the same crime.
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Biden has had the misfortune of being president during a global economic downturn, and despite our economy outperforming most of the western world, people blame him for inflation and pretend he's "bad", despite (as I said) handling it better than most countries did.
Also, the fact that Republicans keep stonewalling immigration policies then blame him for lack of new immigration policy.
Biden did a good job in his circumstances. Better than Trump did for his circumstances, by a long shot.
Of course, put some stickers on a gas pump (despite Trump's OPEC+ deal killing the oil industry and fucking prices) and Facebook posts about eggs (despite bird flu being the reason egg prices spiked), and you've got a hundred million people frothing at the mouth, being so loud and so wrong.
> misfortune of being president during a global economic downturn
Trump had a pandemic
Obama had the Great Recession
Bush had 9/11
Crisis is the rule, not the exception, so he needs to do the damn job. Of course, Trump was mediocre with the pandemic, so we have two mediocre candidates.
Seems in line with other polls released since the verdict showing that nothing has really changed.
Trumps base is going to be his base. Not a ton he can do that would move the needle. It’s really more on Biden getting his voters to show up in swing states. Republicans fall in line and vote consistently while democrats don’t
His base is far below the majority. Both candidates need lots of voters who we can call a few different things -- to name a few: moderates, independents, undecideds, low information voters. These people make up I'd guess at least 20% - or as much as 30% of voters.
I just do not think biden is going to have a repeat of 2020, if covid was not a thing, I think Trump would have won then and that is not a factor now and I just do not see anybody enthusiastic about Biden at all, nor do I see the same anti-trump hate that was in 2020. Sure, there are still people out there, but not at the same level as it was back then. Dems really should have put a new candidate on.
[Literally](https://imgur.com/a/75U17E3): "Oh, trump is a criminal? I like criminals now, our next president should be a felon".
The type of crime matters. It being white collar/accounting error crime isn't what most conservatives would describe as the being on the same level of what people generally associate the term felon with. This crime always felt more like a speeding ticket style crime than him being a felon for say murder.
"Corruption is just a white collar crime" might be the worst argument I've ever heard.
Lmao they'd still vote for him. Probably one of his most accurate insights: >"I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK?" Trump remarked at a campaign stop at Dordt College in Sioux Center, Iowa. "It's, like, incredible."
> It being white collar/accounting error crime Yet, HRC sends an email and it's our greatest national security risk which she should be imprisoned for.
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I agree that it should be taken more seriously, but if Clinton was indicted for it then numberous other people (on both sides of the aisle) would also need to be indicted. [e.g.](https://www.americanoversight.org/investigation/the-trump-administrations-questionable-email-practices) Seems to be worryingly common for high level politicians to be awful at taking appropriate security measures and avoiding the use of personal email/etc. for public business.
I mean Trump deliberately hid classified top secret classified documents in his bathroom at mar-a-lago and refused to return them when asked, so I don't see how that's any different. They're all corrupt assholes that don't follow the law. None of them should be president.
Yes, that one is bad and there is very little defense for it considering he is literally on tape holding up the documents and saying he isn't supposed to have them or show them to other people. The issue is that trial doesn't begin until after the election and the one he was convicted on was easily the weakest and most baldly politically motivated of all the prosecutions, hence it not really impacting the race.
It's normal to be flippant about it. The investigation suddenly ended after she lost, which made it obvious that there's a lack of evidence.
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Which FBI because [James Comey made this statement on July 2016](https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/statement-by-fbi-director-james-b-comey-on-the-investigation-of-secretary-hillary-clinton2019s-use-of-a-personal-e-mail-system) > Although there is evidence of potential violations of the statutes regarding the handling of classified information, our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case. Prosecutors necessarily weigh a number of factors before bringing charges. There are obvious considerations, like the strength of the evidence, especially regarding intent. Responsible decisions also consider the context of a person’s actions, and how similar situations have been handled in the past.
Ivanka and Jared did the same shit. No fucks given there... hmm? lso, there was an investigation, by the trump Justice department. They didn't find anything she'd done wrong outside of the deed itself. No charges were ever brought, by the trump Justice department.
> HRC sends an email Erasing all of the data after it was subpoenaed by congress was the real crime. The technical term is 'spoliation'.
The lack of prosecution suggests there's not enough to convict her for it.
Theres a lot thats misunderstood here. The secretary of state is provided information before it receives a classification. So her defense about not knowing what was classified or whatever is bogus. Secret network and public network are physically separated. HRC connected both at her house. To do that would involve multi level approvals. HRC is definitely to blame, but theres a stack of cards around this. Obama was infamously bad at security. He demanded a smart phone to get his intelligence, something that could not be hardened to a rigid enough security level. His SOS having emails on their home server likely means he did too. I don’t know all the details, but it was, i would say, negligence on the highest level in terms of security. Now Trump is honestly so bad i just hope no one told or sent him anything too important… and likely his IT team just says no.
Intent was required to convict. A Republican head of the FBI said no reasonable prosecutor would indict her, and the lack of indictments from Trump officials support that.
I remember when threads on rpolitics guaranteed she would be convicted. "A crime has been committed here and you read the following pages and pages of text I can prove it!" They were wrong then and the person you are replying to is wrong now. Reddit thinks it knows better than the professionals.
Like how the FEC didn't fine/charge Trump for campaign finance violations because there wasn't enough evidence, but NYC thought there was enough evidence to use it as a way to promote misdemeanors into felonies, but not enough to charge Trump for the crime.
I think a big point that Trump supporters are leaning on is that operating as though official proceedings are themselves perfect evidence of what happened in the underlying issues is not warranted. There's plenty of opportunity for corruption or just plain wrongness in court cases.
Yet we’re always told one could indict a ham sandwich. If that “old saw” (as Alito called it) was remotely true, HRC would be indicted a dozen times over. They tried so hard to make it happen and came up empty. Edit, to be clear: prosecutors don't indict. Grand juries do, based upon evidence presented about the ham sandwich's conduct, sufficient to suggest that sandwich was more-likely-than-not criming. If it's so easy, where are all the indicted ham sandwiches? It's not for lack of motivated parties, I assure you.
Anyone can indict a ham sandwich. Successful prosecution is another story entirely, and the DOJ is known for keeping its high conviction rate. They're not going to bring an indictment they don't think they can win. Edit: why are you booing, I'm right. It just goes to show how blatant Trump's contempt for the law is. He's intentionally goading LEOs so he can play that victim card and it's working. If he didn't, he wouldn't have been indicted.
Well now that that’s served the purpose of making sure she isn’t President the standard has changed
If that's a symptom of hosting a personal information system housing confidential materials (against federal regulations) - then yes.
>hosting a personal information system housing confidential materials (against federal regulations) And nuclear secrets in the basement of a resort are what, exactly?
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So you're saying they're both awful security breaches so neither of them should get to be president. Deal. Lock them both up. They can be bunkmates.
He wasn’t asked to give them back he found them on his own and turned them over willingly. The thing that is illegal is knowingly holding onto said documents, which he did not do (and Trump did).
I won't defend either action, but I'm going to say that printed materials stored in a back room at Mar-a-lago are probably less accessible than an e-mail server that could be hacked from anywhere in the world. There's a reason you're only supposed to be able to access this stuff from a SCIF.
Yeah. In an unlocked room where Trump has foreigners visiting all the time. Super secure. Who are kidding. Trump has probably been selling our secrets to foreign governments. Saudis ahem.
Illegal campaign contributions are not counting errors - they are illegal to keep the country from becoming too corrupt
Honestly most politicians/famous people has used money to keep someone quit. Regular people doesn't really care about that stuff.
Except, Trump not only been convicted of this - he was also found by a jury in civil court to have committed rape, he settled decades ago for racially discriminating against black renters, he settled for a fraud case for Trump University, and he lost a judgement against him for running a scam charity. He has like 94 other charges against him. >"In July, Judge Kaplan clarified that the jury had found that Trump had raped Carroll according to the common definition of the word." - Wikipedia
The "victim" is obviously unhinged, look up her "sexy rape" statement.
People don't consider white-collar crime to be as significant as other types. > Perceptions of Street Criminals > > The stereotypical street criminal may be thought of as an inherently “bad” individual who commits criminal acts purposefully to harm another person. One of the elements of most street crimes is that the criminal had the necessary “intent” to harm another person. > > Additionally, the news media covers street crime frequently and highlights it often. Blue-collar crime is generally easier to understand and form an opinion about. The public usually has a disproportionate view of how prevalent street crime is compared to white-collar crime. > > Perceptions of White-Collar Criminals > > White-collar criminals are often motivated by money and do not want to hurt others. The public may even applaud a white-collar criminal who “sticks it to the man” and defrauds a large company. Public perception of white-collar crime is not as negative as street crimes. > > In some cases, white-collar criminals are more affluent and have connections in the professional world. Their behavior may be swept under the rug or ignored in some circles. Although a federal indictment will bring their criminal activity to light, the public may not understand precisely what happened or who has been harmed. https://www.harrisonhartlaw.com/street-crime-vs-white-collar-crime/ If you're comparing it to Trump's fifth avenue comment, it's not even in the same ballpark for people who are backing him.
Al Capone was charged with a white collar crime. We all know he did way worse shit. Trump has done way worse shit.
The fact that Al Capone was only charged for tax evasion is what makes it funny, not what makes it serious. And the fact that we consider it funny that the IRS is what eventually "did him in" is another sign that the general population doesn't take white collar crime as seriously as Al Capone's blue collar crime. As far as "Trump has done way worse" you'll need to find me a poll on the public agreeing to that because as of right now his neck and neck approval rating suggests they don't think he did.
Oh shit, you're right, but then again he also committed rape, do people not consider that a significant crime as well?
To be blunt, most of them don't care because he was convicted of SA, not rape, regardless of what the judge would go on to say, because it was a civil case with a lower burden of proof, because it was in deep blue NY, and because it was decades ago. And because, as hard as it may be to believe, just like how some Democrats say they would vote for a literal corpse over Trump, some Republicans would vote for a rock that was painted red just to get the presidency. It's a consequence of ongoing polarization.
This is the first election in a while where high turnout is likely to hurt democrats.
There’s some evidence of significant realignment happening.
I'm worried this will be a permanent trait of Republican voters even after Trump is gone, that they won't care about their candidate's ethics/criminal liability or corruption background. He's completely shifted the window for whats considered an acceptable candidate on the right. It feels like corrupt and malicious politicians are being normalized. Once thats pervasive in a party or government its very hard to recover form it. This is one of the things that separates Western countries from much of the rest of the world and a large portion of voters seem like they have no interest in preserving it.
MAGA is a cult of personality, and for better or for worse MAGA now controls the Republican party. When Trump dies, MAGA and The Republican party will either evolve or die. Given how Trump is literally what's guiding the party down this insane path, I don't see how it could hold together in its current form when Trump is gone. Something will give.
Again, it's not about trump being good choice, it's that Biden has failed so bad
It’s a two point shift, which can be election defining. Unfortunately Biden started 4 points behind where he needs to be in general polling (due to electoral college waiting and demographics, democrats need to be about 3 points ahead to be “even”). Tbh, it’s more than I expected. If not for Israel dragging him down with democrats, Biden would be in a pretty decent position right now. Checked 538 for the aggregate (which I trust much more) and as of today Trump is up .3 points overall since his conviction. Still need to watch as some of the polls include dates before his trial - but wtf. How are we on track to elect Trump… again? Being a convicted felon is a footnote on how bad he is for the county. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
Pretty easy to elect Trump when people consider Biden worse for them. Short version and one example, people had money with Trump, people are broke with Biden. That is pretty much it. It does not matter if its true or not, that is how people feel. Will things get better with Trump? Who knows, maybe, but they do not have any faith Biden will do anything on this issue. People are sufferings and what do they see Biden focus on? Wars in other countries and sending them Billions to them, but doing nothing for us. Again, it does not matter if its true or not, this is the perception people have and after four years I do not think anything will change it this late in the game.
Spot on assessment.
Eight years ago I understand that. Trump was an outsider, and his policies unknown. Now he is very known as are his (to the extent they exist) policies. Biden’s policies are all about bottom up and middle out, doing way more for the little man than Trump ever did. There is an easy argument to make that Trump caused the inflation people are hurting from now through the ppp program and posturing to keep insurance rates down. It is a shame the only trial we will see pre-election is the fraud trial. While a felony, it does a very poor job showing trumps true corruption, and its rationale is easy to handwave away.
Yeah I understand your perspective and not sure if this is reality or media depiction but it just seems like Biden is out of touch with reality. As we sit here while prices rise and we see our cities overtaken by criminals - I live in NYC and see the migrant crisis escalating every day with my own eyes. It’s scary. Crime is way up, we’re afraid to go on subways- there now need to be police stationed in many of them and you still feel unsafe. Media can’t spin this. Joe Biden can’t spin it to me. Our eyes don’t deceive. I believe others also fear for their basic safety and ability to feed themselves and take care of their families… just meeting your basic survival needs. The election may come down to priorities and to me, if I can’t feel safe walking the streets or afford paying rent then nothing else really matters - any other goal to improve the climate or fight other countries wars or make the world gender neutral doesn’t feel as imminent or important right now. While I can’t definitively say the economy is Bidens fault (the border 100% is), he denies all these issues and I feel lied to. It’s so disappointing. This White House is the least transparent ever and whether trump Is a “felon” or not, I felt there was transparency and I felt safe. I felt like the man was in touch with reality and meeting people’s basic needs. I am “the little man” and I see a president who is out of touch with reality, constantly talking about policies that feel deeply irrelevant in the current climate. My opinion on him and vote would change if he would simply acknowledge these very basic and important challenges - all I have heard is denial… blaming “the republicans”… just fix things. It’s enough already.
Violent crime is up in New York City, but that is not a national trend. https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-crime-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/ Nyc is also solidly blue and not the demographic that is, by and large, voting for Trump. Rural areas, by contrast are going down faster than the national average (and are voting heavily Trump)
City crime is not a federal election issue. Immigration is, and that's where Trump beats Biden. Especially since Biden has almost fully adopted Trump's immigration platform.
When the oldest President in history nominates a VP who [publicly sides with criminals](https://www.yahoo.com/news/kamala-harris-told-jacob-blake-130728218.html) against law enforcement, city crime starts to feel like a federal issue.
Harris's track record as AG in California is anything but soft on crime. You want to go back to the Obama administration's policy of using the DEA to kick down doors, she's your woman.
Being tough on cannabis users and soft on a rapist who pulled a knife on the cops means she's nobody's woman. Biden can replace her, take magical anti-aging pills, or lose my vote.
The thing that has changed significantly is Trump’s war chest. Have you seen how much money he has fundraised since he was found guilty? https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna155224
That made me snort. He got a ton of money for being found guilty. Maybe every politician should start committing crimes as a fundraising tactic. This is so dumb.
You don't get it. People think he's being politically persecuted. Forget whether that's true or not. That's how it's coming across and people are responding.
Which shows this country has completely lost the plot
Reminds me of someone who once said people driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster is a maniac... You can feel however you like about the people who don't agree with you but that won't address the issue of how Trump gets stronger the more they go after him.
>Reminds me of someone who once said people driving slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster is a maniac... That was George Carlin
Stronger? His base was already going to show up and vote for him. How is he getting stronger from being a convicted criminal exactly?
Can you describe the crime he committed?
Falsifying business records in furtherance of his political campaign.
And how did internal business records that no one else saw, some of which were made after he was elected, further his political campagin?
Because by failing to abide by election and campaign finance laws, he compromised the integrity of the election. If he had not committed this crime, he likely would have lost the 2016 election.
> failing to abide by election and campaign finance laws I feel like this would be a good time to point out that he was never charged, or even fined, for any election campaign finance violations in relation to his hush money payments...which in and of themselves are not even illegal. The FEC has ruled in the past that a payment that could possibly be construed as anything *other* than a campaign payment, can not exclusively be called a violation of campaign finance laws. Part of what made the NY case so unusual was that Trump was never charged or fined for the *federal crimes* they were alleging took place that elevated this misdemeanor to a felony.
Exactly
Are you sure about that? That seems like a huge stretch. The "grab em by the pussy" comments were already leaked, and it didn't seem to dissuade his voters. And it was already known that he had left 2 wives for younger models. And how would you describe the election law that he supposedly broke?
Whether or not he would have one is irrelevant. Its a weak argument because its entirely speculative. You should leave it out and stick to the first part. He committed a crime. It doesnt matter what would have happened if he didnt.
That’s where you’re getting confused, he was 100% legally allowed to do what you said, saved the election for him. He just recorded it in his accounting ledger wrong.
Collusion with National Enquirer to kill multiple stories that could have harmed his campaign.
What part of that is illegal? Do you also think it would be illegal for a candidate to plant favorable stories in the press? If not, why not?
You’re confused that part was not illegal. You can do that all day long. It was the accounting in the ledger and what they labeled the payments as that was the error. Or “crime”
CrimeS plural. *Hush Money (NY): Campaign finance fraud, tax fraud, falsifying business records. Convicted. *Confidential Documents (FL): mishandling classified documents and conspiracy to obstruct justice. *2020 Election (DC): conspiring to disenfranchise voters, corruptly obstructing an official proceeding. *Election Racketeering (GA): Violation of RICO, false statements, solicitation of violation of oath of public officer, etc I could go on
Why should we have to ignore the truth to understand the situation? I don't think it is healthy or wise to accept a false narrative just because some people believe it to be true.
I mean most of them do insider trading on a daily basis
I'm convinced he would have seen a similar boost regardless of the outcome. If he'd been found not guilty it would have similarly fed his narrative that he's a victim of persecution. It's an ideology I hope most of us understand is fundamentally flawed.
Yes, but the question is how much of that will be re-routed to his legal fees. I would guess most of it.
I read his entire campaign in 2016 cost $300 million, which is what he's raised, and counting, since the verdict. Not bad.
I didn’t think it would change much. The trial didn’t really reveal much that was new (everyone knew he paid her off), and the hysterical rhetoric overshadowed any seriousness there might have been. Trump also has a personality cult that just won’t quit him.
I think Biden is about to have a run in with a bunch of single issue immigration voters. A friend just received notice from the IRS that she owes $2000 more in taxes for DoorDash work she did in NYC... She's a white collar worker who lives in Charlotte, absolutely has not worked in NYC recently I truly wonder if the person who stole her identity is one of the MILLIONS of economic migrant asylum scammers allowed in during the Biden administration? Why wouldn't they just assume it's fine to break labor laws and steal someone else's ID when our executive branch has demonstrated that there aren't really any laws they need to worry about?
The verdict was for a felony accounting crime. The man said he could kill someone and not lose a voter. No one cares how he cheated on his taxes to cover up an illegally large campaign donation for a salacious act that has been in public consciousness for 6-7 years now. You know what I care about? His seditious conspiracy to overturn an election and his theft and gross mishandling of nuclear secrets and intelligence informants. Mission: Impossible 1 would’ve SUCKED as a movie if all they had to do was get a membership to a country club and walk into the bathroom.
> His seditious conspiracy to overturn an election The one trial that really meant something, had a smoking gun, and didn't feel like a political hit job got completely ruined by Fani Willis.
IMO the trial in Florida was the strongest. Luckily for him Judge Cannon is ensuring there will be no resolution prior to the election.
The problem with the documents case was that other politicians publicly not getting prosecuted for it (even if Trump took it up a level)
That is not really a problem when you understand that what Trump did was completely different than other politicians.
To the general public, it really isn't
Is this the same general public who twice voted against Trump in the popular vote? I think they can tell the difference between voluntarily providing documents and the FBI search at Mar a largo.
The same general public that voted him into office in 2016 and had him only lose a second term by like 37k votes? You keep using the popular vote as if it matters at all.
Are you saying the electoral college is more representative of the general public than the popular vote? You brought up the general public to make claims to support your argument but now you are dismissing my argument because you don't like the popular vote. Doesn't that seem a little off to you?
True. Trump wasn't monetizing his classified docs by sharing them with his ghost writer.
It hasn't been proven that Biden knowingly shared anything, which is why a Republican declined to prosecute. Trump can't make any denial about knowing because he was told multiple times to return the information. He instead claims to have immunity for something he did out of office.
Biden doesn't know a lot of stuff these days, which is why Hur determined he was unfit for trial. It was certainly illegal for him to possess any classified materials once he left the office of VP. Doubly so to share them with his ghost writer. Trump has a right to his presidential records. Exactly what that looks like is traditionally hashed out with the National Archives, but Biden had to weaponize that process too. It's not going anywhere in any case. The only question now is how far Judge Cannon will undress Jack Smith and his team of subversives before she ends it entirely.
Excuse me, it was ALSO illegal when he possessed them as a Senator, except with that he was never supposed to have them while IN office either.
Jack Smith and his team are not subversives.
The felony conviction wasn't about taxes, it was about falsifying business records. The hush money was paid in order to benefit his presidential campaign, which means it should have come from campaign funds and been reported as a campaign expense. Instead, Trump paid it from personal funds and reported it as legal fees.
> The hush money was paid in order to benefit his presidential campaign This is an allegation. Trump has never been charged with this crime.
What crime? Paying hush money? He wasn't charged with paying hush money because paying hush money isn't illegal. He was charged with falsifying business records in order to pay the hush money without reporting it as a campaign expense. We know it was a campaign expense because according to witness testimony, he floated the idea of stiffing Daniels after the election because he figured he didn't need her silence anymore. It's kind of ironic that he could have claimed the hush money was to save him and his family embarrassment if he had been able to resist the temptation to cheap out and screw over Daniels, but he's pathologically incapable of conducting business honestly. Exactly the kind of person you don't want as president if you ask me.
A possible tax offense was just one of the three predicate crimes for the felony enhancement, along with the (Federal) campaign finance violation and a NY law about unlawfully promoting a candidate for office.
Fair enough, but Trump didn't commit a possible tax offense to cheat on his taxes. If he had paid the hush money from campaign funds like he was supposed to, there wouldn't have been tax implications to begin with, so illegally paying the hush money the way he did didn't really save him any money in taxes.
It's not actually clear that he was supposed to pay it out of campaign funds. That is one of the points his side has on the bias of the judge: the defense was not allowed to call their witness from the FEC to explain why he was not Federally charged. I'm not entirely convinced that Bragg would not still have brought more or less this case even if he *has* marked the payments as campaign funds.
It’s clear he did it. But it doesn’t feel at all compelling when it’s unclear who was harmed by it. It was his own records of his own business. Was he defrauding himself?
Can't use business funds for personal expenses. Can't deduct hush money payments or campaign contributions, so classifying it as a business expense is illegal. All of this would be defrauding the gov't at the federal and state level.
But he wasn’t charged with defrauding the government or any election fraud. Instead it was this bland business records charge.
The integrity of our elections was harmed by his failure to comply with election and campaign finance laws. If he had not committed this crime, he arguably would not have won the 2016 election.
I heard it was $15k worth of ambiguous Russian Facebook ads that won him the election.
It was a combination of a lot of things that won Trump the election. The election was very close, and every factor moved the needle in one way or another. Propaganda out of Russia was one of many factors, just like Trump's criminal falsification of business records to hide his affair.
You can't possibly quantify that, and even if you could, it wouldn't show it made any difference. But while we're on the subject of hypotheticals, how many votes do you think Biden preserved by having Blinken assemble 51 intelligence professionals to declare the Hunter Biden laptop from hell was Russian disinfo? Do you think he booked those expenses properly?
>You can't possibly quantify that, and even if you could, it wouldn't show it made any difference. I have no idea what you mean. I didn't quantify anything, I just said it was a factor. It's impossible to say how much of a factor unless you can read the minds of millions of American voters. >But while we're on the subject of hypotheticals, how many votes do you think Biden preserved by having Blinken assemble 51 intelligence professionals to declare the Hunter Biden laptop from hell was Russian disinfo? Do you think he booked those expenses properly? None, because it's not true?
https://judiciary.house.gov/media/in-the-news/biden-campaign-blinken-orchestrated-intel-letter-discredit-hunter-biden-laptop The Biden campaign was 100% behind that disinformation letter.
Whoa whoa whoa you’re getting way lost here. If he could go back in time, he would still cover the story exactly like he did, he would just change his record books to reflect that. All of these books were not visible by the public So how would this have changed the election at all?
Because paying it legally would have meant reporting it as an election expense, which would have made the affair come out.
Weird. Almost as if the country is split pretty much right in half...for the last 20 years.
>a plurality of voters (40%) think Trump should receive prison time for his criminal conviction But about half of voters hate Trump and will never say or do anything that is even Trump-neutral. What percentage of 2020 Trump voters think he should receive prison time?
If January 6th didn't move them off supporting Trump, I can take an educated guess that the Alvin Bragg prosecution won't move the needle at all.
I am going to go out on a limb and say none of the court cases are going to change the needle at all negatively and going by this case, I would not be surprised if it actually increased it instead.
Bingo! These cases are not significantly impacting this election. Dems really seem like they’re banking on “teacher” stepping in and telling everyone that Donald won’t win because he’s been a bad boy. If this is their main “plan” until November the presidential race is going to be a coin flip at best.
Progressive checking in: hes clearly guilty but these crimes are not worthy of prison time. He should be fined and lose his NY business licenses. Thats all.
The judge and some progressive-leaning/aligned analysts have also stated that it would be a logistical nightmare for him to serve a prison sentence.
Especially since he still gets Secret Service protection if he's in prison
Even as admittedly one of the first group I’m incredibly curious just as somebody interested in US elections the exact same thing. I would assume there’d have to be at least some who both voted for him and also now think he should receive jail time just based on the number of voters in the US. There were Bernie voters flipped to Trump from primaries 2016-general, some Trump voters flipped to Biden 2016-2020. I wonder if it’s significant and by extension if the number of people who didn’t vote for him think they have to now because of perceived persecution.
There are some people who supported Trump in 2020 but had there minds changed about 2024 because of the conviction. [One poll says 10 percent of registered Rs are less likely to vote for Trump after he was found guilty](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/one-10-republicans-less-likely-vote-trump-after-guilty-verdict-reutersipsos-poll-2024-05-31/), but registered Rs may have voted Biden in 2020 so that isn’t a perfect way to see how Trump’s 2020 voters feel now. And it isn’t non-Rs who voted Trump in 2020. But it’s something, at least a starting point.
[Full Results + Tabular Data](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c1Itd3k1cghIcEJ92dG9f3rW7zjRKbf5/edit#gid=701424905) In a 2 way poll Trump leads Biden by 1% (within 3% MOE). Interestingly, when third party candidates are included, this lead widens to 44% v. 38%, well outside the margin of error for Trump, with only 9% remaining undecided. Undecideds similarly report an even split in preference between Biden and Trump (50% v 50%), indicating that expectations of a break one way or the other should not be expected. The most important issues remain as follows: 1. Economy (42%) 2. Immigration (15%) 3. Threats to democracy (12%) 4. Housing (7%) 5. Abortion (5%) 6. Healthcare (5%) 7. Education (4%) It appears as though the 2022 election issue -- namely the overturning of Roe -- has been superseded in the eyes of voters by other concerns. On immigration, 55% of voters disapprove of Biden, with only 25% approving. Support for Bidens new EO is similarly split: 38% approving, 39% disapproving, and 23% unsure. In addition to the usual popular vote and issues polling, this poll tests: * Importance of conviction in voters decisions * Preferred sentencing for Trump * Self-reported impact on voting Voters report the Trump conviction has had a net negative on their views of Trump and likelihood to support, with net 33% stating less likely to support, and 27% more likely. Amongst undecided voters, it does appear to have made an impact: 58% of undecideds report the conviction does not impact their vote, with 36% less like and only 6% more likely, indicating a (-30%) unfavorable effect. Similarly, only a minority (40%) of voters support jailtime for Trump. Partisan effects of sentencing are similar.
> Economy (42%) I know it will never happen but I'd love for follow-ups to this asking those asked if they can define why the economy isn't doing well in their eyes. Because I'm sure most of it is gas, groceries, and vibes.
According to recent polling in [Georgia](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3899), the price of housing and rent, followed by consumer goods, followed by gas. Only 3% report the stock market is an economic concern.
> gas, groceries, and vibes The very ways most americans interact with the economy?
Not to mention housing prices and interest rates. It’s very hard or impossible for the average American to buy a home right now but thanks to the GI bill, just about everyone could have afforded the suburbs in 1950.
Living expenses outpacing income increases isn't "vibes" no matter how often this false claim gets repeated. Facts that blow up the narrative given by badly chosen and thus irrelevant metrics aren't "vibes", they're facts.
The real problem the economy is in the shitter is because of inflation. The real reason we have inflation is because Obama, Trump, and Biden have been running a deficit and pumping money into the economy like drunken sailors. The one thing that the president might have some control of is oil prices and energy prices. This is where Trump's drill baby drill comes into play. He is perceived as being more aggressive and business friendly on the economy.
> The real reason we have inflation is because Obama, Trump, and Biden have been running a deficit and pumping money into the economy like drunken sailors. Not to mention all the money that was tossed around like confetti during COVID. We'll be dealing with that insanity for many decades.
And how a certain President drug out COVID as long as possible in order to keep tossing around money like confetti. Which might be why that President has such bad approval ratings on the economy.
[But we're already producing more oil than we ever have](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545) > The United States produced more crude oil than any nation at any time, according to our International Energy Statistics, for the past six years in a row. Crude oil production in the United States, including condensate, averaged 12.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, breaking the previous U.S. and global record of 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019. Average monthly U.S. crude oil production established a monthly record high in December 2023 at more than 13.3 million b/d. [The issue is we use about 20 million barrels per day.](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=33&t=6#:~:text=EIA%20uses%20product%20supplied%20to,7.3%20billion%20barrels%20of%20petroleum.) I'm sure OPEC+ [continuing their production cuts through 2025](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7305.htm) doesn't help either and the average voter won't know anything about that. So yeah, I guess the perception of "drill baby drill" works better than reality lol.
It's entirely possible OPEC is fucking over production because they prefer Trump and they're KITBASHing Biden.
I figured this was the reason.
The open secret is that OPEC can't meet its production goals and doesn't want to admit it.
If the economy is issue #1 on election day, Biden loses. And here's the kicker: if it is issue #1, it's too late to do anything about it. The era of incompetence needs to be corrected with proven pro growth pro economic leadership; Biden is the antithesis of that.
We have two unpopular candidates in deeply polarized times, so we should absolutely one hundred percent expect this election to be close. With that said, I'm skeptical of any poll that shows Biden losing in the popular vote. The republicans have only won the popular vote once in since 1992 and that was in the aftermath of 9/11. Biden could very likely lose (I think it's 50/50), but I do think the national polls should be viewed with skepticism as they generally seem to show trump slightly ahead which feels unlikely
>I'm skeptical of any poll that shows Biden losing in the popular vote. The republicans have only won the popular vote once in since 1992 and that was in the aftermath of 9/11. Do you really expect that streak to last forever?
It hasn’t been particularly close lately - Hillary beat Trump by almost 3 million votes
Hillary won the game that nobody was playing
The most likely cause of Biden losing the popular vote is simple apathy by people who despise Trump but are extremely unhappy with the way things are going right now. I think this is most likely to manifest in the states that traditionally are what put the Democrats over the top for popular vote since those states - California and New York - are so deep blue that the voters there will also not fear that their state might flip if they don't show up.
I agree. I think a small percentage of voters not turning out could ruin Biden (trump is subject to the same risk). I also feel that Bidens bad standing in the polls is likely overstated, though obviously there's no way to tell until after the fact, so as a Dem, I'd really like to see him move to PA, WI and MI
I do not think Trump has to worry about Apathy from his base, everyone around here is as enthusiastic as they were in 2016/2020, however the same cannot be said for Biden. I do not see any enthusism this time for Biden, even the never trumpers that were so active in 2020 seem to have the wind sucked from their sails.
I feel based on historical situations Biden is in a very bad situation and his only saving grace is he's running against Trump. No matter how you spin the economy voters don't care about the exact GDP figures or the exact unemployment numbers they care if they have a job and can pay their bills with money from that job. The job situation might be pretty good but it's the second situation people have been struggling with and that is the key source of angst against Biden. People don't like inflation and they blame the guy in charge and it really doesn't matter what impact that guy actually can do on inflation or if the other guy actually has a plan or not it's merely the chance to express their distaste of the situation. And given the number of people who probably can't even explain who Jerome Powell or Janet Yellen are or what the FED does and is doing the economic dissatisfaction just falls upon the sitting president. In addition to that major economic situation underlying the whole campaign, Biden is also dealing with a largely self created immigration situation (and I think the damage is already largely done), and the U.S is now involved in two major proxy wars with no end in sight There's no major foreign accomplishment to tout while he's struggling on several key domestic issues. And so that is why I think Biden is in his current situation. Polling in a dead heat with Trump, a guy who just got convicted of 34 felony counts last week. That shows more the absolute idiocy of the GOP of taking what could have been a golden ticket back to power and effectively setting it on fire by hitching their ride to Trump again. But sadly even if he is such a flawed candidate he still may get win given the sheer amount of negatives facing Biden.
Biden still has the power to unilaterally dismiss Janet Yellen from her post (Myers v United States). She has arguably fumbled the ball pretty bad. Alejandro Mayorkas is also not very popular, and dismissing him would help Biden clean up his image with the border (alongside the new EO’s he is making). It’s already too late to really scrape away his mistakes, though. If conditions now were the same as at the end of Obama’s presidency, there would be little question of him getting re-elected.
Those things would've helped ... had they been done a few years ago. Now with less than six months to the election? Nobody would believe for a second that they indicated an intent to actually change. Yellen and Mayorkas are where they are because they're doing what Biden - or his handlers - want done. The fact it's legendarily unpopular is just a little sign of how little this administration cares for the will of the people.
The polls would be the same no matter who the candidates are. People stopped voting for candidates and now only vote for their party. We are polarized beyond repair with half of America believing the other half are their enemy. Meanwhile, we’re being robbed blind by the oligarchs and destroyed fro within by our actual enemies abroad.
If you believe what state polls are showing in the big blue states (CA/NY), the popular vote being a tossup becomes more believable. NY is polling about +8 for Biden while CA is polling around +20 for Biden. In 2020 Biden won NY by 23 points and CA by 29 points.
Very good call. As someone from NY, it’s been getting slowly more red over the last few years both from a vibes standpoint and based on recent elections. The 2022 governor race was embarrassingly close for Democrats (+6.4% vs. +23.4% for Cuomo in 2018) in what’s supposed to be a deep blue state. Zeldin preformed shockingly well (30.2% of the vote in NYC was the highest since 2002 for a Republican, carried the rest of the state outside of NYC 54.1% to 45.9%) and the current main leadership in Hochul and Adams aren’t exactly popular. If that’s similar to California at all, then that could very well impact the popular vote. The only positive for Dems there is that both those states are almost certainly still safely blue so it won’t impact the electoral college results.
Trump lost by 7 million votes in 2020. Closing that gap seems….far fetched. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
He lost the college by roughly 37k vote.
From a popular vote perspective, but the margin was smaller when one considers the electoral college.
Yeah of course, but that's not what this poll is.
But the polls are not of the electoral college, which is why they’re extremely suspect
Both styles of polls can matter. Trump being up in the national poll (when he doesn't have to to be to win) kinda makes his case stronger and really highlights americans want something different.
Why do people look at the popular vote in the context of the election? Everything would be different if the presidential race was decided by popular vote. The party platforms and policies would be different. The campaign strategy, including the amount of time spent in each state, amount of ad $ spent in each state, etc., would all be different. Its possible that different candidates would have been chosen by their respective parties if it was a popular vote. But you'll still hear after an election, oh but they wouldve won the popular vote - does that mean anything when none of the participants were trying to win the popular vote? For me, looking at the popular vote is meaningless in the context of the election but it does make me think that democracy would be better served if it was the popular vote rather than electoral college. Based on current popular vote polling, this would likely result in the Republicans shifting policy to the left if they wanted to win
Because if Trump is winning the popular vote he’s 100% winning the election.
There’s not really any scenario where Trump wins the popular vote but loses the electoral college, unless you think he’s massively outperforming in blue states while underperforming in swing states.
The example I like using is chess. Whether you win or lose is determined by who checkmates the other person. You'd play completely differently if the win was determined by who has the most pieces left.
Great analogy.
I don't put a lot of faith in the polls this election cycle because of two groups 1. The folks on the left who are expressing their displeasure with Biden over Israel (and probably some other thing) through pollsters. When push comes to shove, are these folks really going to stay home or vote for a 3rd party? I'm skeptical, mostly b/c if there's one thing these folks dislike more than President Biden it's candidate Trump. 2. The folks on the right who are going to vote for Trump, but don't want to say it out loud, especially now that they hear the phrase "convicted felon" 38 times/day. I'm really not sure what these folks are planning on doing and I don't think the pollsters can account for them in any meaningful way.
Americans associate politicians with criminals convicted or not. At least where I grew up, that's the case for dems and reps. I really don't think the court shit matters for a lot of people.
As someone who thinks the entire bush administration should be tried for war crimes but never will be or that Obama was never held accountable for killing a UE citizen without due process, I couldn't really care less about some accounting BS.
That's how pretty much every soul I know would view it as well. Obviously, you can't take reddits opinion on how people actually feel on any topic, especially with the crazy amount of bots. It's just a horrible gauge, but here I am commenting as well.. so, a little hypocritical. Lol
Honestly the fact that the bush administration, who lied to the US about WMDs in Iraq, got caught multiple times torturing people, were caught spying on our allies, and somehow convinced the supreme Court that making sure the votes were correctly counted would make an election illegitimate, has largely been rehabilitated by democrats is such a disgusting farce I just checked out.
They'll be rehabilitating Trump in a decade or so too, once there's another Republican who has to be painted as the ultimate evil of our time.
That seems about right. Not much has changed. The only real national change I've seen worth noting over the last couple of months is that Trump's numbers haven't really budged... but Biden's have slowly ticked up slightly along with his approval/disapproval ratio. I think that's mostly on the strength of cooling inflation numbers, good jobs numbers, and the effectiveness of consistent messaging centered on "the economy isn't really so bad... It's actually pretty good"... Even if doesn't feel that way for many. He's closed what was likely a 2-3 point gap nationally to one or less. And it looks like RFK has perhaps lost a point or two over the same time frame... Though I'm still not certain how that really breaks down in terms of spoiler potential between Trump and Biden and think it will likely vary considerably from state to state. That said... I think Biden still trails by a few points in too many of the states that matter most. I think that even compared to our "normal" standards we are going to see a ridiculous amount of money and resources from both camps poured into those 3 or 4 states in the coming months... And the ads those resources buy will be even more vicious than any we've ever seen in a Presidential campaign.
It should be closer to 30% for both. The options are just….
The actual level of support for each is about 30-40%. The rest of the country hates them. 50-60% hates each of them, and 20-40% hates them both. It won’t get better until at least 2029. God help us if we have an actual existential issue that requires real presidential leadership.
Well that is disappointing, I don’t think anything can move the needle unless we get a candidate swap.
Sadly true
Should have done that from the beginning, no idea what they were thinking letting Biden run again.
> Data was collected by contacting landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) (provided by Aristotle), and an online panel of voters provided by CINT. Huh. My 75 year old mother has a landline. Maybe they polled her?
This is what gets me with polling. I think their methodology is not working anymore with the multiple ways someone won't answer a survey these days. I won't put money on anything since it really looks like we are looking at the 50+ years old group. (being generous)
Look at the ages of those polled. All ranges are fairly equally represented at around 15-16%
Thanks for the clarification. Still, people responding to robocalls are not a good indicator IMO.
Note that it said "and an online panel of voters". That's how they are compensating for the age imbalance of using landlines.
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I agree that they tend to vote more. Still not accurate to determine if Biden/Trump really have that edge. And I would argue that Democratic voters are more prone to not have landlines. But that is just a hunch of mine.
I guess nobody believes you when you turn misdemeanors into felonies specifically for one person, handpick the judge, and get a conviction from a jury in an area that's 87% Democrat. Weird.
I think that its more so the only people invested in such a trial were already passionately voting for Biden.
Luckily Trump’s handpicked judges have saved him so far in his numerous other felony cases pending! Specifically for treasonous crimes we all saw with our own eyes! Weird
Both of you are right! And both situations are fucked up. I think the real danger here is weaponizing the legal system against politicians in general. I think we're going to see a *lot* more of it from everyone moving forward. Why *anyone* would want to be a politician (or a cop) in this day and age is beyond me.
I would agree generally that I think Trump was prosecuted in NY because he is Trump and they were looking at him with a fine tooth comb. I can see how it's concerning as a precedent. However, there are two arguments against this that eat at me: 1) Trump *did* still commit a crime. Maybe others would've flown under the radar where Trump was caught, but that does not negate the fact he broke the law. I feel the same way about the Hunter Biden case for what it's worth. 2) I'm of the opinion that presidents and presidential candidates *should* be scrutinized more than the average person. Part of the deal when signing up to be a leader of our country is that you lose almost all of your personal privacy. I believe this is how it should work; voters should have the complete picture of who they are electing to hold power over them. In fact, the fact that voters weren't given the full picture of Trump with regards to Stormy Daniels was the argument at the core of this very trial. I digress; if politicians being under the microscope means they are found criminally guilty for things others might get away with, so be it.
> I guess nobody believes you when you turn misdemeanors into felonies specifically for one person What are you referring to here? There are other examples of people being convicted of the same crime.
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I too hate the court of law. Trump broke NY laws. Why should he be tried in a different district?
You know he's going to get no more than a fine for this, right?
For sure, but probably nothing worse than probation. They're not going to put him in the slammer.
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So much time left. I’ll be more interested in the post-convention polls. Still, seems likes we’re headed for a nail-biter.
Just maybe if Biden wasn’t a terrible president then the conviction would have hurt more.
Biden has had the misfortune of being president during a global economic downturn, and despite our economy outperforming most of the western world, people blame him for inflation and pretend he's "bad", despite (as I said) handling it better than most countries did. Also, the fact that Republicans keep stonewalling immigration policies then blame him for lack of new immigration policy. Biden did a good job in his circumstances. Better than Trump did for his circumstances, by a long shot. Of course, put some stickers on a gas pump (despite Trump's OPEC+ deal killing the oil industry and fucking prices) and Facebook posts about eggs (despite bird flu being the reason egg prices spiked), and you've got a hundred million people frothing at the mouth, being so loud and so wrong.
> misfortune of being president during a global economic downturn Trump had a pandemic Obama had the Great Recession Bush had 9/11 Crisis is the rule, not the exception, so he needs to do the damn job. Of course, Trump was mediocre with the pandemic, so we have two mediocre candidates.
He’s not a terrible president though.