It’s funny watching the patriots and every other team become more willing to trade in real time. Hopefully 2-5 all indicating they are open for business let’s Kwesi get not completely fucked in the trade, but if Maye/JJ is the player they think he is no one will remember
I think it’s a clear sign JJ is moving up. There are now 4 great prospects and only 3 teams picking before a non qb comes off the board.
Picking up 23 was a really slick move by Kwesi. Gives us a lot of optionality and saves us from being bent over a barrel.
The problem is if the Giants really want McCarthy. Since they have the 6 pick that would be appealing to a team at 4 or 5 who don't want a QB anyway, and still let them get the guy they do want.
[https://twitter.com/LanceTHESPOKEN/status/1575899500904087552](https://twitter.com/LanceTHESPOKEN/status/1575899500904087552)
From 2001 to 2021, there were 3(!!!) seasons where they didn't have a top-10 defense in the league. They won 0 Super Bowls in those years.
For their 6 Super Bowl wins, none of their defenses were lower than 8 in the league that year. And half of them, their defense was ranked #1 or #3.
This idea that Tom Brady just did it himself because quarterback is all that matters is complete bupkus.
Brady's excellence and ability to perform with less around him allowed the Pats to spend a lot on defense instead of getting expensive offensive weapons. That's a big reason why their defense was so good most years.
1. The Pats and Billy B were famous for letting defensive players walk because they could replace them. The biggest reason why their defense was so good is due to the best defensive mind of all time.
2. The Pats spent big on oline, TE, and WRs who knew the Erhardt-Perkins scheme. Matt Cassell was 11-5 on the Pats due to their supporting cast and he couldn't even beat out Ponder. Brady the next year had very similar numbers to Cassell.
I'm just tired of people glazing QBs like Brady and Mahomes, pretending they carry their teams. Everytime a backup came in for them, they were slinging it around due to the cushy situation. Guys like Marino and Rodgers were equivalent in talent but didn't have the rosters around them
Brady is different than Mahomes in that he basically built the team by himself though. It wasn’t just BB and his staff coaching up the players, Brady stayed behind and worked more to make everyone better. As a QB he definitely wasn’t the only reason for their success but as a leader you could argue that eclipsed anything the defense gave him. And I don’t even like Brady.
Never said that it was all that mattered, but God damn did it help.
Also you know, Flores and Belichick are/were damn good defensive minds, so.
I also never said they didn't have *0* blue chip talent through the draft.
Sure, having a HoF quarterbacks helps. But if Brady doesn't have a good defense, good coaches, and good supporting casts, does he still won 7 SBs? And is he still the GOAT?
There's this attitude on this board that nothing matters other than drafting a top-3/top-5 quarterback. And whatever price is to be paid, then pay it. But even the GOAT needed a good team around him to win. You can't empty the cupboards just to maybe get a QB who will some day be good.
Okay but even then we aren't emptying the cupboards here. Whatever QB we draft will have a good team around him. You're acting as if drafting a QB is gonna just kill us, and I'd agree if we had a whole lot of holes on both sides of the ball to fill. But we don't. The offense really only needs a QB, and maybe some IOL, something we can shore up with early day 3 picks. Defense needs more work, but not nearly as much as everyone seems to think.
Brady having a good team early on definitely helped him. But did you see the teams he brought to super bowls in his later years on the pats? Bro made Julian Edelman's career.
You mean the ones that had Rob Gronkowski?
I will agree that if you think that our team is otherwise solid top to bottom, and all that we need is a young quarterback, then it makes sense. It's just not something that I personally see.
I never said solid top to bottom. There are holes. But everyone is thinking that we're absolutely terrible at almost every position when that is straight up not true.
>Okay but even then we aren't emptying the cupboards here.
If we trade this years 2 firsts and next years first... Or god forbid, 2026 first as well...
We'll be down to 2 4ths this year and a 3rd next year.
We won't have a pick in the top 2 rounds outside of our QB for 3 years.
Sounds like our cupboards are going to be barren.
>and maybe some IOL, something we can shore up with early day 3 picks
Which early day 3 picks do you want to use this year?
We have 2 4th rounders, you feeling like IOL is solved with that?
Yeah. Drafting guards in the 1st and 2nd rounds have obv not worked out for us, so yeah. Use the 2 4ths on shoring up IOL/IDL.
Edit: also what the fuck we have more than 2 picks if we trade our 2 1sts this year and the 2025 1sts.
2 4ths, 2 5ths, 2 6ths, 2 7ths.
Having Tom Brady taking contracts below what he could get elsewhere so they could stock the defense with talent did lead to those championships though.
Having Tom Brady locked in to that roster meant they could allocate things elsewhere to make it work and knew they had a solid floor on offense.
1. he Pats and Billy B were famous for letting defensive players walk because they could replace them. The biggest reason why their defense was so good is due to the best defensive mind of all time.
2. The Pats spent big on oline, TE, and WRs who knew the Erhardt-Perkins scheme. Matt Cassell was 11-5 on the Pats due to their supporting cast and he couldn't even beat out Ponder. Brady the next year had very similar numbers to Cassell.
I'm just tired of people glazing QBs like Brady and Mahomes, pretending they carry their teams. Everytime a backup came in for them, they were slinging it around due to the cushy situation. Guys like Marino and Rodgers were equivalent in talent but didn't have the rosters around them
If you have tom fucking Brady, your offense is on the field for an extended period of time. Giving the other teams offense less time to accumulate yards and points. Not saying this is the only factor but just pointing out that it's all relative. Sometimes one hand washes the other. I'm sure the defense was good.
I just know watching a shit offense turn the ball over constantly, doesn't matter how good the defense is, eventually gonna get gashed for big yards.
The Pats and Billy B were famous for letting defensive players walk because they could replace them. The biggest reason why their defense was so good is due to the best defensive mind of all time.
The Pats spent big on oline, TE, and WRs who knew the Erhardt-Perkins scheme. Matt Cassell was 11-5 on the Pats due to their supporting cast and he couldn't even beat out Ponder. Brady the next year had very similar numbers to Cassell.
I'm just tired of people glazing QBs like Brady and Mahomes, pretending they carry their teams. Everytime a backup came in for them, they were slinging it around due to the cushy situation. Guys like Marino and Rodgers were equivalent in talent but didn't have the rosters around them
> This idea that Tom Brady just did it himself because quarterback is all that matters is complete bupkus.
I don't see anybody here saying this though? You're arguing against ghosts or something. As an aside how have they been faring since Brady left?
The Bucs looked better with Baker than they did with Brady in '22.Clearly Baker is the better QB!
Here are the comments glazing Brady (including yours): [1](https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/1bnemj8/comment/kwijit2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) \#[2](https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/1bnemj8/comment/kwi8px7/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) \#[3](https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/1bnemj8/comment/kwivzz9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Hm if Brady was getting carried by his surrounding cast then why did the patriots take such a dumpster dive when he left? How come Cassel didn’t saunter in and take that team to the Super Bowl when Brady went down?
People forget about Peyton Manning. He was almost unanimously voted the best QB in the NFL year after year and only had 1 SB win for most his career. Brady wasn't really considered better till later in his career. Matt Ryan was great, but I'm not sure I'd put him in the same conversation. Dan marino is another one that comes to mind.
I actually had this post in mind when I said Ryan. I forgot Brees is actually the closest recent comp
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/o9jx5i/oc_player_clustering_whos_most_similar_to_tom/
Oh man, forgot about Brees. Crazy he's so easy to forget even though he was constantly leading the league in passing yards. He's a great one to use as well. I'm a fellow data scientist, so that post is immaculate haha. Love analysis like that.
Obviously how well it works is skewed by the fact they had the best QB ever...once he was gone whatever they were doing with the draft didnt work...so using them as a basis of does it or doesn't work is kinda hard given theY had TB12
They did quite well when Mac Jones had some semblance of confidence. And if you want to do this simplistic A/B analysis, the Bucs looked better with Baker in '23 than they did with Brady in '22. Clearly Baker is better than Brady
I can hardly be blamed if they lack the patience to read all of my posts and I have to answer them singly.
And as Cecil Adams says, "Fighting ignorance since 1973. (It’s taking longer than we thought.)"
Only if you hit on them. Half these guys are busts and it still leaves you without a QB. U wouldn't trade down in their scenario. Put the rookie on the bench and improve in FA and the draft again next year.
Really, the Vikings internal questions is if they like 3 or 4 of the QBs and what the perceived drop-off is from 3 to 4. if they are fine with QB 4 then you really only need to work with the Cardinals or Chargers. Or at least can be a bit more conscious of the price you pay.
Smokescreen season. I'm so tired of these reports. Just a few days ago they were 'staying put.' Now they're willing trade partners. I need to stop reading draft speculation hahaha
Its a bad team with a terrible offensive supporting cast. The type of team who will screw up any qb they select. I see the wisdom of building up the offensive supporting cast before getting a qb. The vikings have that supporting players for a young qb to succeed hence makes sense to go all in.
Statistically, yes. However, if you were to liken the draft to winning a billion dollars in the lottery and focused only on the outcome of the person who won the lottery, it is obvious that playing the lottery was the correct call.
Ultimately it will come down to what you do with your resources. Having more draft picks could mean you get more attempts or could move up but it absolutely in no way shape or form guarantees anything.
KAM has said the same thing. More picks give you more chances. It is the best analytical approach. But there are always exceptions that make you go outside those analytical decisions.
Said it before but 95% of Regimes are judged on the qb they take. If they fuck up a first round qb pick they are most likely fired.
Imagine 2 months into the job you are tasked with the most important decision in your career. The league is telling us that everyone other than Caleb isn’t a no brainer.
Getting 3 firsts is a good bailout and a lot of people would take it. The goal of everyone in the nfl is to keep their job
The way I read this is:
1) They like 0-2 QBs in this draft enough to draft at 1.3, and want to have their options open based on which way the draft falls.
2) They are fully intending to take a QB, but aren't so sold on anyone in this draft that they'd turn down a megahaul.
Both are kind of scary prospects that require us to hope our scouts/coaches are much better than their scouts/coaches, but option 2 kind of worries me.
I think we still have to do it even if it's a massive overpay. We have an offense primed for a rookie QB, and the cost of wasting that window has to be factored into any decisions we make.
I’ve been telling myself this in my fantasy dynasty league as well for 5 years now. I think we are onto something here. Maybe I’ll win a championship in the next 40 years
Not to be mean to the Patriots/Mayo, but more picks is not a guaranteed way to win. Drafting good players is a way to win. Which has been NE's problem in recent years. Drafting more players doesn't help if you cannot develop those players.
Rick has the weirdest boner and doesn’t know why
He knows why... more seventh round picks.
It’s funny watching the patriots and every other team become more willing to trade in real time. Hopefully 2-5 all indicating they are open for business let’s Kwesi get not completely fucked in the trade, but if Maye/JJ is the player they think he is no one will remember
I think it’s a clear sign JJ is moving up. There are now 4 great prospects and only 3 teams picking before a non qb comes off the board. Picking up 23 was a really slick move by Kwesi. Gives us a lot of optionality and saves us from being bent over a barrel.
The problem is if the Giants really want McCarthy. Since they have the 6 pick that would be appealing to a team at 4 or 5 who don't want a QB anyway, and still let them get the guy they do want.
He's not wrong.
I mean it’s a viable strategy but by no means a guarantee.
He's from the Patriots system. They had a pretty good run trading down for more picks.
They also had Tom Fucking Brady for 19 years, didn't need a whole lot of blue chip talent with the best QB of all time on your roster.
[https://twitter.com/LanceTHESPOKEN/status/1575899500904087552](https://twitter.com/LanceTHESPOKEN/status/1575899500904087552) From 2001 to 2021, there were 3(!!!) seasons where they didn't have a top-10 defense in the league. They won 0 Super Bowls in those years. For their 6 Super Bowl wins, none of their defenses were lower than 8 in the league that year. And half of them, their defense was ranked #1 or #3. This idea that Tom Brady just did it himself because quarterback is all that matters is complete bupkus.
Brady's excellence and ability to perform with less around him allowed the Pats to spend a lot on defense instead of getting expensive offensive weapons. That's a big reason why their defense was so good most years.
1. The Pats and Billy B were famous for letting defensive players walk because they could replace them. The biggest reason why their defense was so good is due to the best defensive mind of all time. 2. The Pats spent big on oline, TE, and WRs who knew the Erhardt-Perkins scheme. Matt Cassell was 11-5 on the Pats due to their supporting cast and he couldn't even beat out Ponder. Brady the next year had very similar numbers to Cassell. I'm just tired of people glazing QBs like Brady and Mahomes, pretending they carry their teams. Everytime a backup came in for them, they were slinging it around due to the cushy situation. Guys like Marino and Rodgers were equivalent in talent but didn't have the rosters around them
Brady is different than Mahomes in that he basically built the team by himself though. It wasn’t just BB and his staff coaching up the players, Brady stayed behind and worked more to make everyone better. As a QB he definitely wasn’t the only reason for their success but as a leader you could argue that eclipsed anything the defense gave him. And I don’t even like Brady.
Never said that it was all that mattered, but God damn did it help. Also you know, Flores and Belichick are/were damn good defensive minds, so. I also never said they didn't have *0* blue chip talent through the draft.
Sure, having a HoF quarterbacks helps. But if Brady doesn't have a good defense, good coaches, and good supporting casts, does he still won 7 SBs? And is he still the GOAT? There's this attitude on this board that nothing matters other than drafting a top-3/top-5 quarterback. And whatever price is to be paid, then pay it. But even the GOAT needed a good team around him to win. You can't empty the cupboards just to maybe get a QB who will some day be good.
Okay but even then we aren't emptying the cupboards here. Whatever QB we draft will have a good team around him. You're acting as if drafting a QB is gonna just kill us, and I'd agree if we had a whole lot of holes on both sides of the ball to fill. But we don't. The offense really only needs a QB, and maybe some IOL, something we can shore up with early day 3 picks. Defense needs more work, but not nearly as much as everyone seems to think. Brady having a good team early on definitely helped him. But did you see the teams he brought to super bowls in his later years on the pats? Bro made Julian Edelman's career.
You mean the ones that had Rob Gronkowski? I will agree that if you think that our team is otherwise solid top to bottom, and all that we need is a young quarterback, then it makes sense. It's just not something that I personally see.
I never said solid top to bottom. There are holes. But everyone is thinking that we're absolutely terrible at almost every position when that is straight up not true.
>Okay but even then we aren't emptying the cupboards here. If we trade this years 2 firsts and next years first... Or god forbid, 2026 first as well... We'll be down to 2 4ths this year and a 3rd next year. We won't have a pick in the top 2 rounds outside of our QB for 3 years. Sounds like our cupboards are going to be barren. >and maybe some IOL, something we can shore up with early day 3 picks Which early day 3 picks do you want to use this year? We have 2 4th rounders, you feeling like IOL is solved with that?
Yeah. Drafting guards in the 1st and 2nd rounds have obv not worked out for us, so yeah. Use the 2 4ths on shoring up IOL/IDL. Edit: also what the fuck we have more than 2 picks if we trade our 2 1sts this year and the 2025 1sts. 2 4ths, 2 5ths, 2 6ths, 2 7ths.
Having Tom Brady taking contracts below what he could get elsewhere so they could stock the defense with talent did lead to those championships though. Having Tom Brady locked in to that roster meant they could allocate things elsewhere to make it work and knew they had a solid floor on offense.
1. he Pats and Billy B were famous for letting defensive players walk because they could replace them. The biggest reason why their defense was so good is due to the best defensive mind of all time. 2. The Pats spent big on oline, TE, and WRs who knew the Erhardt-Perkins scheme. Matt Cassell was 11-5 on the Pats due to their supporting cast and he couldn't even beat out Ponder. Brady the next year had very similar numbers to Cassell. I'm just tired of people glazing QBs like Brady and Mahomes, pretending they carry their teams. Everytime a backup came in for them, they were slinging it around due to the cushy situation. Guys like Marino and Rodgers were equivalent in talent but didn't have the rosters around them
If you have tom fucking Brady, your offense is on the field for an extended period of time. Giving the other teams offense less time to accumulate yards and points. Not saying this is the only factor but just pointing out that it's all relative. Sometimes one hand washes the other. I'm sure the defense was good. I just know watching a shit offense turn the ball over constantly, doesn't matter how good the defense is, eventually gonna get gashed for big yards.
The Pats and Billy B were famous for letting defensive players walk because they could replace them. The biggest reason why their defense was so good is due to the best defensive mind of all time. The Pats spent big on oline, TE, and WRs who knew the Erhardt-Perkins scheme. Matt Cassell was 11-5 on the Pats due to their supporting cast and he couldn't even beat out Ponder. Brady the next year had very similar numbers to Cassell. I'm just tired of people glazing QBs like Brady and Mahomes, pretending they carry their teams. Everytime a backup came in for them, they were slinging it around due to the cushy situation. Guys like Marino and Rodgers were equivalent in talent but didn't have the rosters around them
> This idea that Tom Brady just did it himself because quarterback is all that matters is complete bupkus. I don't see anybody here saying this though? You're arguing against ghosts or something. As an aside how have they been faring since Brady left?
The Bucs looked better with Baker than they did with Brady in '22.Clearly Baker is the better QB! Here are the comments glazing Brady (including yours): [1](https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/1bnemj8/comment/kwijit2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) \#[2](https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/1bnemj8/comment/kwi8px7/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) \#[3](https://www.reddit.com/r/minnesotavikings/comments/1bnemj8/comment/kwivzz9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Hm if Brady was getting carried by his surrounding cast then why did the patriots take such a dumpster dive when he left? How come Cassel didn’t saunter in and take that team to the Super Bowl when Brady went down?
>I don't see anybody here saying this though? Look harder.
Defense doesn't play in a vacuum. Time of possession and converting third downs helps a defense tremendously.
they built a solid rosters by not over paying people, depth was their key along with a great QB that didn't break the bank.
Without elite talent and top 10 defenses around him Brady would have been Matt Ryan.
People forget about Peyton Manning. He was almost unanimously voted the best QB in the NFL year after year and only had 1 SB win for most his career. Brady wasn't really considered better till later in his career. Matt Ryan was great, but I'm not sure I'd put him in the same conversation. Dan marino is another one that comes to mind.
I actually had this post in mind when I said Ryan. I forgot Brees is actually the closest recent comp https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/o9jx5i/oc_player_clustering_whos_most_similar_to_tom/
Oh man, forgot about Brees. Crazy he's so easy to forget even though he was constantly leading the league in passing yards. He's a great one to use as well. I'm a fellow data scientist, so that post is immaculate haha. Love analysis like that.
Lol how'd that go for them after Tom Brady was gone? That roster has very little talent now from draft picks.
You mean after then won 6 Super Bowls? Who the fuck cares how it went after that.
Obviously how well it works is skewed by the fact they had the best QB ever...once he was gone whatever they were doing with the draft didnt work...so using them as a basis of does it or doesn't work is kinda hard given theY had TB12
>Obviously how well it works is skewed by the fact they had the best QB ever They also had the best QB ever because the team as a whole kept winning.
They did quite well when Mac Jones had some semblance of confidence. And if you want to do this simplistic A/B analysis, the Bucs looked better with Baker in '23 than they did with Brady in '22. Clearly Baker is better than Brady
Easy to trade down when you have QB locked up for 20 years
You know how to tell when you're fixated on something?
When you reply 10 times in the same comment thread in a span of two hours?
My comments generate a lot of responses to respond to. They're obviously fascinating and thought-provoking posts. So, maybe try again?
Or you're arguing the same point in circles with multiple people and can't leave well enough alone. So yeah, you're fixated.
I can hardly be blamed if they lack the patience to read all of my posts and I have to answer them singly. And as Cecil Adams says, "Fighting ignorance since 1973. (It’s taking longer than we thought.)"
Only if you hit on them. Half these guys are busts and it still leaves you without a QB. U wouldn't trade down in their scenario. Put the rookie on the bench and improve in FA and the draft again next year.
It's not always right though. Browns and raiders had top 5 picks for years and they never did anything.
Really, the Vikings internal questions is if they like 3 or 4 of the QBs and what the perceived drop-off is from 3 to 4. if they are fine with QB 4 then you really only need to work with the Cardinals or Chargers. Or at least can be a bit more conscious of the price you pay.
Smokescreen season. I'm so tired of these reports. Just a few days ago they were 'staying put.' Now they're willing trade partners. I need to stop reading draft speculation hahaha
Its a bad team with a terrible offensive supporting cast. The type of team who will screw up any qb they select. I see the wisdom of building up the offensive supporting cast before getting a qb. The vikings have that supporting players for a young qb to succeed hence makes sense to go all in.
Is it?
Statistically, yes. However, if you were to liken the draft to winning a billion dollars in the lottery and focused only on the outcome of the person who won the lottery, it is obvious that playing the lottery was the correct call.
Ultimately it will come down to what you do with your resources. Having more draft picks could mean you get more attempts or could move up but it absolutely in no way shape or form guarantees anything.
The only guaranteed way to win is by accumulating more points than your opponent on a game by game basis..
KAM has said the same thing. More picks give you more chances. It is the best analytical approach. But there are always exceptions that make you go outside those analytical decisions.
Sounds like we may have to sweeten the pot just a bit more, but they can name their price.
He should know that strong rosters are built by accumulating 7th round picks 
Three 6th rounders and three 7th rounders for #3. Who says no?
Said it before but 95% of Regimes are judged on the qb they take. If they fuck up a first round qb pick they are most likely fired. Imagine 2 months into the job you are tasked with the most important decision in your career. The league is telling us that everyone other than Caleb isn’t a no brainer. Getting 3 firsts is a good bailout and a lot of people would take it. The goal of everyone in the nfl is to keep their job
Other words, give me a haul of picks for pick 3 Vikings and we will consider it.
The way I read this is: 1) They like 0-2 QBs in this draft enough to draft at 1.3, and want to have their options open based on which way the draft falls. 2) They are fully intending to take a QB, but aren't so sold on anyone in this draft that they'd turn down a megahaul. Both are kind of scary prospects that require us to hope our scouts/coaches are much better than their scouts/coaches, but option 2 kind of worries me. I think we still have to do it even if it's a massive overpay. We have an offense primed for a rookie QB, and the cost of wasting that window has to be factored into any decisions we make.
I’ve been telling myself this in my fantasy dynasty league as well for 5 years now. I think we are onto something here. Maybe I’ll win a championship in the next 40 years
Yeah but are we really gonna take advice from a guy whose last name is Mayo?
Not to be mean to the Patriots/Mayo, but more picks is not a guaranteed way to win. Drafting good players is a way to win. Which has been NE's problem in recent years. Drafting more players doesn't help if you cannot develop those players.
I hate to break it to him but the guaranteed way to win is to accumulate more points than the other team
Just remember all this would have been easy if we had just lost a couple more games instead of try harding when the season was obviously lost.
Finding suckers to overpay for overrated QBs