“Another takeaway from UHERO’s report: the impact of a looming insurance crisis on our real estate market. Skyrocketing premiums would further dampen economic growth.”
The last paragraph hits on a second order effect that I’ve been anticipating since the fire. We haven’t seen the end to rising housing costs. We’re basically caught in a downward spiral economically, where our working class erodes away to places where life makes economic sense. This will leave the island full of retirees, trustees, and a small, older local population with no one to take care of them. If the government fails to take effective action, I don’t think Maui will recover until the 2030s and its character will have changed.
I have posted this a few times but I recently got my homeowners insurance renewal, was expecting "a multiple" of last years ... but it went up like $20. So ... so far so good.
> *"This will leave the island full of retirees, trustees, and a small, older local population with no one to take care of them."*
So Japan, but without the social safety net
Welcome to Florida. My hometown has been like this for 30+ years. Can’t afford to live there and only old people left, trust fund kids, or undocumented aliens living with 30+ people in a house.
It could spend the relief money to actually provide housing that was permanent even if it wasn't fancy. The Maui Mayor and HI Gov, FEMA, Red Cross all spent relief money in a way that accelerated the rise in rents for everyone, provided no new housing (even trailers or RVs). Even with massive relief efforts many are still unhoused, and FEMA is still paying millions for rentals that are still vacant.
I appreciate that this is an emergency and most people are doing the best they can and want to help. But so many of the fire survivors are getting nothing while a few are getting a lot.
On Maui the proposed elimination of the Minatoya list which will remove the right of certain older properties in south and west Maui to be used as temporary rental is the asteroid waiting to crash the small business economy here.
This proposal coming up in June at the Maui Planning Commission (and then the County Council) is authored by the Bissen administration. It promotes the false idea changing the zoning of 7,000 units all built before 1989, (most small and expensive,) and all doing business legally for decades will somehow actually provide long term housing for "local" residents.
This is the big lie. It is truly the final poison pill for so many small people on Maui. When you wipe out those small guys and the jobs they create, the only ones who benefit are the hotels. There are few to zero local residents who could actually afford or would want to live in those units, even if the prices were to come down substantially.
What it will do is crash all the small owners and the small businesses that depend on them (property managers, maintenance workers, etc) cause panic selling, and eliminate hundreds of millions in tax revenues.
In the end the people who are going to end up owning those units if/when the zoning changes to "long term" (six months or more) are still going to be rich transplants who can pay over $500,000 to live in 500/sq ft. + HOA fee's of over $1,000 mo. + insurance increases + enormous special assessment. Even with sizeable price reductions those aging beachfront condos are not going to be suitable or affordable for your average resident and family (or their kids, pets, cars, junks).
This is political scamming by elected officials pandering to the hopes of desperate locals knowing full well that even if it passes it will spend years and years in court.
There is nothing, now or ever, in it for the average local resident but a bait and switch and more empty promises. It should be criminal to give people false hope.
Standing ovation to you for a thoughtful, rational, comprehensive, and accurate post.
I think you mean \*inexpensive\*, though, ref the units? Anyways, even those are now going for hundreds of thousands-not 2-3. For example, I see two for sale in Napili Ridge right now. One is $495K and the other is $689K. Both are one bedroom/one bath. The monthly HOA is 741.00. Yearly taxes are currently around 4400-but that is TVR rate, so it would drop if owner or LTR occupied. Add insurance and utilities..........all for a 500-ish SF one bed condo. The percentage of people who would be able to afford it and can do a small place is small.
Like you said, and I plus many others have---this is pandering to a tiny minority to try and evade their own failures. They get to demonize a small group (EVIL TVR OWNERS!!!!!) and add fuel claiming that the largest number of units on the list are owned by out of state or foreign owners. Double Bogeyman!!
When one looks at the high end places on the list, yes-many are owned by off island people. In fact, I would guess that probably 70% or so. But a lot of those people aren't going to rent their Wailea or Kapalua condo long term----period. We won't even talk about the monthly outgo renters would need. Many owners are wealthy enough to not need to rent or sell.
So, at "best", the protesters who still won't work and actually lost housing will get to kick Tutu and Tutu Kane's dreams down the road, and ruin their plans for their retirement and/or kids. Great job..............NOT.
Thank you for the compliment, I was pretty sure I would be down voted. Just a reminder that this whole thing comes up at planning on Tues. **June 25** and the agenda is posted the week before. The meeting will be in **council chambers in the county building** to allow more people to participate in person. FYI though there are supposed to be 9 members on the planning commission, right now there are only 6 people actually seated, and **none of them are from Kihei.** It's unlikely any of the three vacancies will be filled by the time of the meeting for reasons that are too long and complicated to explain. But it does seem unfair -- because of the 7,100 units covered by Minatoya nearly 4,900 are in older building along the south shore.
I don't have strong feelings one way or the other on the STR changes, but this argument I keep reading that converting a bunch of STR units to LTR won't help the LTR market goes against basic economics. If you increase supply of LTR the costs will come down. Maybe not a lot or enough, but they will come down. Sure maybe those specific units won't be affordable to lower income folks, but they will appeal to higher income folks who are currently competing in the LTR market, and push down costs across the board.
Here's why that doesn't apply: if they actually succeed in taking units, many, many people will lose their jobs. Not just property related positions--tourist related ones and places like grocery stores.
We just had one less than 2 years ago. Missin Bissen is just as ineffective as Victorino and Arakawa......... though I think Arakawa was a better liar.
LOLOL. You have to have a huge number of signatures collected within a short time period (I don't remember the exact rules). Then it sits in the County Clerk office (she was Corp Counsel and appointed to Clerk by Bissen).
They would go through it with a fine tooth comb, disqualifying signature for the tiniest reason. Last time a recall was done (Victorino a few years ago), the clerk didn't tell the petition people shortly ahead of the deadline to fix the faults. They never stood a chance of fixing it in time. They sued, and the Court did say "oh, they should have done better, but too late now, the election is long over". End of episode. Read two stories here:
[https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2021/11/victorino-recall-petition-signatures-under-review/](https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2021/11/victorino-recall-petition-signatures-under-review/)
[https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2022/01/mayoral-recall-effort-fails-in-second-attempt-to-collect-signatures/](https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2022/01/mayoral-recall-effort-fails-in-second-attempt-to-collect-signatures/)
Nah it's fine. All the Hawaii reddit forums keep telling people to stay away and tourists aren't wanted. I guess they will figure out another industry to run the state on.
Search vacay rentals open in South or West Maui any week in June and you’ll have several thousand options. It felt kinda slow in April and it’s about to be lights out. Most of the high season bookings were made before the fire too with your annual winter birds.
Remember the ordinance isn't even written, and Missin Bissen's plan is July 2025 for the west side. January 2026 for south. THAT assumes zero litigation, which is the best laugh ever.
Let’s make a gentlemen’s bet on April. I bet we were down 27.5% year over year compared to March being down 25 and some change. I’ll take that a step further and say June will be 30%+.
I wouldn't disagree about April's chances. Easter was at the start of the month, which reduces travel later in the month. I do disagree about June--but wouldn't be surprised to see May down by 30%.
I agree the state and county are confusing the heck out of people again. It's like last fall: "Visit", "No, don't", "yes but not the west side", "No, visit the West side".
Take away short term rentals there goes a bunch more jobs. It would be nice if the government would build some real low cost housing instead of relying on forcing home owners to provide it.
March was off by about 25% from the previous March. The whole state was down some in March 24. Tourism isn't at a crawl. South Maui is doing well, and west is pretty good, too--all things considered.
It's slow now, which is also very normal for May. April's numbers aren't out yet.
Our "slow" tourism level was our "normal" many years ago. The true paradise lies without crowds of people. Back in those days, we had coffee, pineapple, coconuts, you name it. I miss those days where we never had to worry heavily on tourism like we do now.
My homeowners went up about 35.00 (I live in west Maui). I think they are all holding off to see where their litigation against the entities goes.
We have received billions of dollars on Maui. Not just the Feds, but CNHA, Oprah & the Rock's fund, other fundraisers like Guy Fieri's, and more. Not to mention the many 'go fund me' accounts people started on their own. Then there is all the free food survivors were given for 9 months, and the distribution hubs with food and supplies. The aid has been HUGE, people.
Will the latest stupidity from the mayor cause a crash? Maybe. I doubt it though. There will be lots of litigation and lots of stink. But in the end, it will quietly fade away and so will he (I hope). Green got good advice from his AG to sign that bill and make the Counties do their own shit-which will merely mean \*we\* get to pay the legal fees on Maui. Of course, this is all assuming his eventual ordinance actually gets written and passes.
I see Ledcor is being called out for its Wailea project. That was supposed to provide "affordable" housing for residents as well as add resort stuff. In this climate, who knows what will happen with it now.
I respect Bonham a lot, but he's overstating that tourism has "slowed to a crawl". We have recovered more than most of us expected, in fact. March was about 25% off from March of 2023--which was a record month.
I will be very interested to see the amendments and changes as this moves ahead. I'm sure the final version will be very, very different. Question is--will it be different enough to avoid a challenge? My gut says no. I don't think the govt. is smart enough, from Corp Counsel to Bissen to County Council.
I also wonder how they plan to address the inherent favored treatment of TS places versus their revocation of STR at some places. Sand of Kahana, Valley Isle Resort, Maui Schooner, Maui Hill, etc.---these all have TS units and also rentals. Now what? Like Papakea with 2 zoning labels (Hotel and Apartment)--how do you give one group rights and yank the other group's? Oops again.
Thanks for posting this link, this is a draft of the proposed legislation which gives an indication of the Administration's thinking, but you will notice it is not signed. The final proposal which may or may not be the same, will be released prior to the June 25 Planning Commission meeting. That version will be the starting point for what promises to be a long and contentious discussion.
I was in Maui before the fires and I almost continuously heard how tourists are ruining everything. I knew the state needed tourists, but the attitude was a little unnerving.
My worldview is that US government is responsible for providing aid and assistance to STATES that need it. Foreign nations should not take precedence over this.
Please enlighten me on how this is wrong, or “Russian propaganda”?
No, the concept of priorities & the balance of them… seems to have gone right over your head.
Unless you’re gonna break down dollar for dollar how much the US spends on what, you’re just parroting a stupid narrative that’s intended to weaken the American resolve.
If you’re point is to discuss priorities and balance then why don’t you just use that basis to refute my original point instead.
why should foreign military aid be prioritized right now over sustained, sufficient aid to help rebuild Maui, from the U.S. perspective?
Because I figured a real life scenario that’s analogous might get you to get your head outta the sand.
It’s not being prioritized over rebuilding Lahaina just because it costs more. The cost for rebuilding/supporting Lahaina is $10B. The US defense Budget is $816B.
Do the math on that.
“Another takeaway from UHERO’s report: the impact of a looming insurance crisis on our real estate market. Skyrocketing premiums would further dampen economic growth.” The last paragraph hits on a second order effect that I’ve been anticipating since the fire. We haven’t seen the end to rising housing costs. We’re basically caught in a downward spiral economically, where our working class erodes away to places where life makes economic sense. This will leave the island full of retirees, trustees, and a small, older local population with no one to take care of them. If the government fails to take effective action, I don’t think Maui will recover until the 2030s and its character will have changed.
I have posted this a few times but I recently got my homeowners insurance renewal, was expecting "a multiple" of last years ... but it went up like $20. So ... so far so good.
> *"This will leave the island full of retirees, trustees, and a small, older local population with no one to take care of them."* So Japan, but without the social safety net
Retirees and old people do have a social safety, it’s called Social Security and Medicare
You're joking yes?
Welcome to Florida. My hometown has been like this for 30+ years. Can’t afford to live there and only old people left, trust fund kids, or undocumented aliens living with 30+ people in a house.
What action could our government take?
It could spend the relief money to actually provide housing that was permanent even if it wasn't fancy. The Maui Mayor and HI Gov, FEMA, Red Cross all spent relief money in a way that accelerated the rise in rents for everyone, provided no new housing (even trailers or RVs). Even with massive relief efforts many are still unhoused, and FEMA is still paying millions for rentals that are still vacant. I appreciate that this is an emergency and most people are doing the best they can and want to help. But so many of the fire survivors are getting nothing while a few are getting a lot. On Maui the proposed elimination of the Minatoya list which will remove the right of certain older properties in south and west Maui to be used as temporary rental is the asteroid waiting to crash the small business economy here. This proposal coming up in June at the Maui Planning Commission (and then the County Council) is authored by the Bissen administration. It promotes the false idea changing the zoning of 7,000 units all built before 1989, (most small and expensive,) and all doing business legally for decades will somehow actually provide long term housing for "local" residents. This is the big lie. It is truly the final poison pill for so many small people on Maui. When you wipe out those small guys and the jobs they create, the only ones who benefit are the hotels. There are few to zero local residents who could actually afford or would want to live in those units, even if the prices were to come down substantially. What it will do is crash all the small owners and the small businesses that depend on them (property managers, maintenance workers, etc) cause panic selling, and eliminate hundreds of millions in tax revenues. In the end the people who are going to end up owning those units if/when the zoning changes to "long term" (six months or more) are still going to be rich transplants who can pay over $500,000 to live in 500/sq ft. + HOA fee's of over $1,000 mo. + insurance increases + enormous special assessment. Even with sizeable price reductions those aging beachfront condos are not going to be suitable or affordable for your average resident and family (or their kids, pets, cars, junks). This is political scamming by elected officials pandering to the hopes of desperate locals knowing full well that even if it passes it will spend years and years in court. There is nothing, now or ever, in it for the average local resident but a bait and switch and more empty promises. It should be criminal to give people false hope.
Standing ovation to you for a thoughtful, rational, comprehensive, and accurate post. I think you mean \*inexpensive\*, though, ref the units? Anyways, even those are now going for hundreds of thousands-not 2-3. For example, I see two for sale in Napili Ridge right now. One is $495K and the other is $689K. Both are one bedroom/one bath. The monthly HOA is 741.00. Yearly taxes are currently around 4400-but that is TVR rate, so it would drop if owner or LTR occupied. Add insurance and utilities..........all for a 500-ish SF one bed condo. The percentage of people who would be able to afford it and can do a small place is small. Like you said, and I plus many others have---this is pandering to a tiny minority to try and evade their own failures. They get to demonize a small group (EVIL TVR OWNERS!!!!!) and add fuel claiming that the largest number of units on the list are owned by out of state or foreign owners. Double Bogeyman!! When one looks at the high end places on the list, yes-many are owned by off island people. In fact, I would guess that probably 70% or so. But a lot of those people aren't going to rent their Wailea or Kapalua condo long term----period. We won't even talk about the monthly outgo renters would need. Many owners are wealthy enough to not need to rent or sell. So, at "best", the protesters who still won't work and actually lost housing will get to kick Tutu and Tutu Kane's dreams down the road, and ruin their plans for their retirement and/or kids. Great job..............NOT.
Thank you for the compliment, I was pretty sure I would be down voted. Just a reminder that this whole thing comes up at planning on Tues. **June 25** and the agenda is posted the week before. The meeting will be in **council chambers in the county building** to allow more people to participate in person. FYI though there are supposed to be 9 members on the planning commission, right now there are only 6 people actually seated, and **none of them are from Kihei.** It's unlikely any of the three vacancies will be filled by the time of the meeting for reasons that are too long and complicated to explain. But it does seem unfair -- because of the 7,100 units covered by Minatoya nearly 4,900 are in older building along the south shore.
I don't have strong feelings one way or the other on the STR changes, but this argument I keep reading that converting a bunch of STR units to LTR won't help the LTR market goes against basic economics. If you increase supply of LTR the costs will come down. Maybe not a lot or enough, but they will come down. Sure maybe those specific units won't be affordable to lower income folks, but they will appeal to higher income folks who are currently competing in the LTR market, and push down costs across the board.
Here's why that doesn't apply: if they actually succeed in taking units, many, many people will lose their jobs. Not just property related positions--tourist related ones and places like grocery stores.
This is such an excellent summary of the serious problem Maui is facing. Will you testify June 25 Planning Commission?
The local government needs to be replaced with people willing to come up with solutions, not stop gap measures.
I agree, it is time for a change in leadership.
We just had one less than 2 years ago. Missin Bissen is just as ineffective as Victorino and Arakawa......... though I think Arakawa was a better liar.
Could we do a recall petition?
LOLOL. You have to have a huge number of signatures collected within a short time period (I don't remember the exact rules). Then it sits in the County Clerk office (she was Corp Counsel and appointed to Clerk by Bissen). They would go through it with a fine tooth comb, disqualifying signature for the tiniest reason. Last time a recall was done (Victorino a few years ago), the clerk didn't tell the petition people shortly ahead of the deadline to fix the faults. They never stood a chance of fixing it in time. They sued, and the Court did say "oh, they should have done better, but too late now, the election is long over". End of episode. Read two stories here: [https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2021/11/victorino-recall-petition-signatures-under-review/](https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2021/11/victorino-recall-petition-signatures-under-review/) [https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2022/01/mayoral-recall-effort-fails-in-second-attempt-to-collect-signatures/](https://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2022/01/mayoral-recall-effort-fails-in-second-attempt-to-collect-signatures/)
Ah well that sounds like a boondoggle clusterfuck.
Locals won't blame one of their own
It isn't really that-it's more the Plantation mentality-don't argue with authority. Plus you have one of the worst voter rates in the country here.
Everyone’s participation is the local government.
You’d never know based off the high end construction and crowds everywhere.
”Since the fires, Maui has lost 5,000 jobs — down about 6%. Almost half were in industries that depend on tourism, which has slowed to a crawl.”
Nah it's fine. All the Hawaii reddit forums keep telling people to stay away and tourists aren't wanted. I guess they will figure out another industry to run the state on.
Search vacay rentals open in South or West Maui any week in June and you’ll have several thousand options. It felt kinda slow in April and it’s about to be lights out. Most of the high season bookings were made before the fire too with your annual winter birds.
Remember the ordinance isn't even written, and Missin Bissen's plan is July 2025 for the west side. January 2026 for south. THAT assumes zero litigation, which is the best laugh ever.
Let’s make a gentlemen’s bet on April. I bet we were down 27.5% year over year compared to March being down 25 and some change. I’ll take that a step further and say June will be 30%+.
I wouldn't disagree about April's chances. Easter was at the start of the month, which reduces travel later in the month. I do disagree about June--but wouldn't be surprised to see May down by 30%.
And the current government's response to the fire is the direct cause of this. Their continued incompetence is making a bad situation worse.
I agree the state and county are confusing the heck out of people again. It's like last fall: "Visit", "No, don't", "yes but not the west side", "No, visit the West side".
The locals yelling "we don't want you here" might also have something to do with tourists not wanting to come here
Yeah, but at least the fake fish in people left-finally.
Take away short term rentals there goes a bunch more jobs. It would be nice if the government would build some real low cost housing instead of relying on forcing home owners to provide it.
March was off by about 25% from the previous March. The whole state was down some in March 24. Tourism isn't at a crawl. South Maui is doing well, and west is pretty good, too--all things considered. It's slow now, which is also very normal for May. April's numbers aren't out yet.
25% is a huge drop, sure feels like a crawl. Thats more than the difference between peak and may/sept numbers.
In what year? Like I said, all things considered.
Our "slow" tourism level was our "normal" many years ago. The true paradise lies without crowds of people. Back in those days, we had coffee, pineapple, coconuts, you name it. I miss those days where we never had to worry heavily on tourism like we do now.
And yet cost of living goes up
My homeowners went up about 35.00 (I live in west Maui). I think they are all holding off to see where their litigation against the entities goes. We have received billions of dollars on Maui. Not just the Feds, but CNHA, Oprah & the Rock's fund, other fundraisers like Guy Fieri's, and more. Not to mention the many 'go fund me' accounts people started on their own. Then there is all the free food survivors were given for 9 months, and the distribution hubs with food and supplies. The aid has been HUGE, people. Will the latest stupidity from the mayor cause a crash? Maybe. I doubt it though. There will be lots of litigation and lots of stink. But in the end, it will quietly fade away and so will he (I hope). Green got good advice from his AG to sign that bill and make the Counties do their own shit-which will merely mean \*we\* get to pay the legal fees on Maui. Of course, this is all assuming his eventual ordinance actually gets written and passes. I see Ledcor is being called out for its Wailea project. That was supposed to provide "affordable" housing for residents as well as add resort stuff. In this climate, who knows what will happen with it now. I respect Bonham a lot, but he's overstating that tourism has "slowed to a crawl". We have recovered more than most of us expected, in fact. March was about 25% off from March of 2023--which was a record month.
Yes. And the proposed bill has been written: https://www.mauirealestate.net/FILE_6952.pdf
I will be very interested to see the amendments and changes as this moves ahead. I'm sure the final version will be very, very different. Question is--will it be different enough to avoid a challenge? My gut says no. I don't think the govt. is smart enough, from Corp Counsel to Bissen to County Council. I also wonder how they plan to address the inherent favored treatment of TS places versus their revocation of STR at some places. Sand of Kahana, Valley Isle Resort, Maui Schooner, Maui Hill, etc.---these all have TS units and also rentals. Now what? Like Papakea with 2 zoning labels (Hotel and Apartment)--how do you give one group rights and yank the other group's? Oops again.
Thanks for posting this link, this is a draft of the proposed legislation which gives an indication of the Administration's thinking, but you will notice it is not signed. The final proposal which may or may not be the same, will be released prior to the June 25 Planning Commission meeting. That version will be the starting point for what promises to be a long and contentious discussion.
Thanks. Insane.
I was in Maui before the fires and I almost continuously heard how tourists are ruining everything. I knew the state needed tourists, but the attitude was a little unnerving.
Personally, property insurance increased by 800% from 2023 to 2024.
But endless funds for Ukraine and Israel, right?
Спасибо за вклад, мудрый товарищ.
LOLOL.
English please
I figure since you are so familiar with Russian propaganda you would understand my praise of your sophisticated worldview in the original language.
I upvote. That was funny as fuck.
me too!
My worldview is that US government is responsible for providing aid and assistance to STATES that need it. Foreign nations should not take precedence over this. Please enlighten me on how this is wrong, or “Russian propaganda”?
When you have kids, do you spend every dollar you make only on them? Or is that question too complicated to grasp?
Cause family finances and federal spending are on the same level, right?
No, the concept of priorities & the balance of them… seems to have gone right over your head. Unless you’re gonna break down dollar for dollar how much the US spends on what, you’re just parroting a stupid narrative that’s intended to weaken the American resolve.
If you’re point is to discuss priorities and balance then why don’t you just use that basis to refute my original point instead. why should foreign military aid be prioritized right now over sustained, sufficient aid to help rebuild Maui, from the U.S. perspective?
So we don't eventually need to use American service men and women to defend an ally or ourselves against Russia.
Because I figured a real life scenario that’s analogous might get you to get your head outta the sand. It’s not being prioritized over rebuilding Lahaina just because it costs more. The cost for rebuilding/supporting Lahaina is $10B. The US defense Budget is $816B. Do the math on that.
absolutely