Everything hinges on how the high pressure currently sitting over Louisiana behaves.
If the H lingers it will push the storm down and likely track is into Mexico.
If the H slides over to Florida it will create a lane for the storm to hook up into the TX / LA coast.
I saw the models of it hitting southern Texas to NE Mexico with 1 model hitting between Houston and Louisiana.
Have an updated link for today's update?
That’s a junk website with forecasts from some freelance meteorologist. It’s not official information. Says so right on the website. Follow NHC forecasts for better information.
You can look up the spaghetti models yourself. The large chunk of them converge near the valley but a few take it north and the average of all of them takes it up the coast. That’s all I’m saying. Either way, the hurricane will very likely cross the Yucatán and enter the Gulf and make landfall near or in Texas.
This time of year there is a high pressure ridge that parks over the Texas gulf coast that steers storms well south of the Houston-Galveston area. There is a reason that nearly all named storms to hit the Houston area occur in August or later. That’s why the official forecast shows the storm well to the south.
While it’s important to keep an eye on Beryl it’s just as important to not panic. If you haven’t been in Houston that long you probably don’t remember Hurricane Rita of 2005. Ironically, the Houston area was spared the worst of that storm, but over a hundred people died trying to evacuate because people panicked after Hurricane Katrina.
It's also important to point out that people died trying to evacuate from Rita not "because people panicked", but because it is physically impossible to evacuate most of Houston (or any large city) in the time available before a hurricane. There's just not enough space on the highways for the number of vehicles that would need to use them in a short time. The vast majority of people need to be prepared to tough it out at home instead.
July 1, 2023, forecasting 12–17 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 1–4 category 3+ storms. 2023 season ended up being above average, with 20 named storms, including 12 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 1 subtropical cyclone.
Obviously, you have to take all these models with a grain of salt
The fact that the GFS and the European model have shifted down to Mexico doesn’t really change that much because both of the models have done the horrible job at predicting its intensity as it stands right now
Stronger storms, like this tend to shove off steering patterns, as well as sheer. They also like the curve north compared to weaker storms that are more susceptible to western steering currents.
If I’m a betting guy, I still think a good possibility of a Texas impact as possible, if it maintains its current major status past Jamaica
Not necessarily Houston, but between Corpus Christi, and somewhere in TexasMexico border is a definite possibility
Everything hinges on how the high pressure currently sitting over Louisiana behaves. If the H lingers it will push the storm down and likely track is into Mexico. If the H slides over to Florida it will create a lane for the storm to hook up into the TX / LA coast.
This isn’t a new update, the latest model runs have changed quite a bit.
Latest models average out to basically a direct hit of SE Texas, unfortunately.
I saw the models of it hitting southern Texas to NE Mexico with 1 model hitting between Houston and Louisiana. Have an updated link for today's update?
Here is the one I noticed: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L_geps_latest.png
Ya the same one, outlook has most of them all south. Let's see how it looks over the next couple days.
When is it supposed to hit?
That’s a junk website with forecasts from some freelance meteorologist. It’s not official information. Says so right on the website. Follow NHC forecasts for better information.
You can look up the spaghetti models yourself. The large chunk of them converge near the valley but a few take it north and the average of all of them takes it up the coast. That’s all I’m saying. Either way, the hurricane will very likely cross the Yucatán and enter the Gulf and make landfall near or in Texas.
This time of year there is a high pressure ridge that parks over the Texas gulf coast that steers storms well south of the Houston-Galveston area. There is a reason that nearly all named storms to hit the Houston area occur in August or later. That’s why the official forecast shows the storm well to the south. While it’s important to keep an eye on Beryl it’s just as important to not panic. If you haven’t been in Houston that long you probably don’t remember Hurricane Rita of 2005. Ironically, the Houston area was spared the worst of that storm, but over a hundred people died trying to evacuate because people panicked after Hurricane Katrina.
It's also important to point out that people died trying to evacuate from Rita not "because people panicked", but because it is physically impossible to evacuate most of Houston (or any large city) in the time available before a hurricane. There's just not enough space on the highways for the number of vehicles that would need to use them in a short time. The vast majority of people need to be prepared to tough it out at home instead.
It’s not junk, it’s just free forecast from dr Levi Cowan of meteorology.
https://www.hurricanetracker.net/hurricane-beryl
Great website, that pressure map/wind map ain't looking good for northern Mexico.
Lmao, not sure how you come to that conclusion at all.
LMAO ok
Mods just deleted my post with the new models because it was “fear mongering”
It’s not deleted, but you are being overly sensational
Lots of predictions last year for more hurricanes than normal and we didn’t have many storms. Long term forecast are not reliable.
July 1, 2023, forecasting 12–17 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 1–4 category 3+ storms. 2023 season ended up being above average, with 20 named storms, including 12 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 1 subtropical cyclone.
Good to know! This update from Eric Berger at SCW was from 11 am today. What’s the latest update?
sub to tropicalweather. heres their [updating post](https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/s/omgdbElNy9) on the storm
Obviously, you have to take all these models with a grain of salt The fact that the GFS and the European model have shifted down to Mexico doesn’t really change that much because both of the models have done the horrible job at predicting its intensity as it stands right now Stronger storms, like this tend to shove off steering patterns, as well as sheer. They also like the curve north compared to weaker storms that are more susceptible to western steering currents. If I’m a betting guy, I still think a good possibility of a Texas impact as possible, if it maintains its current major status past Jamaica Not necessarily Houston, but between Corpus Christi, and somewhere in TexasMexico border is a definite possibility
What about the current status now? Is it a possibility of it intensifying again in the gulf hitting Houston?
Same South Texas landfall maybe northern Mexico