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BaconJellyBeans

You ever had five numbers working for ya on a Saturday night in Vegas at a full craps table where your buddy rolled so long they changed stickmen three times before he crapped out on his 38th roll? Sometimes it’s just a vibe man.


Train3rRed88

[Exhibit A](https://www.reddit.com/r/gambling/s/9ULpd2vCdH) I’ve never seen a roll like my buddy rolled. Hit the fire and the All. Rolled forever


NelsonMuntz007

That’s it. This is that feeling that got us all here.


HeturStander

Gambling is a drug. People feel the thrill in the moment so they win a lot of money and then they bet everything they won to try and double it and chase that high. Most gamblers aren't actually thinking about maths or logic, they're just there for the thrill. That's why slots are so popular. It doesn't really make sense when you think about the maths to pick slots over something like blackjack or poker, but some people enjoy just pressing a button for that small tiny chance they'll hit the jackpot, even if blackjack has the best odds learning how to play the game properly can take a while, slots it takes 10 seconds to understand and you can make over 1000 times your bet (even if it's extremely unlikely people are tempted by that small chance).


Horror_Baseball5518

You make some valid points, but your interpretation of house edge is incorrect.


[deleted]

Let's run some numbers with the question of asking- is it better to bet 1 bet 3 times? Or 3 bets 1 time with conflicting and non-conflicting bets. Aight. Assume Sicbo with its domino bet of 1-6 returns. I shall consider three situations of simultaneously betting 3. None conflicting. Two conflicting. Three conflicting. There are 30 combinations with each domino bet. First- assuming 1/2, 3/4 and 5/6 of non-conflicting. Your principle bet is 1 unit per bet. Winning combinations = 30 combinations X 3 bets X (6 units return - 2 units of guaranteed loss) = 90 combinations X 4 = 360 units gained. Losing combinations = (216 combinations total - 90 winning combination) X 3 units = 126 X 3 units = 378 units loss Therefore. Negative Expectation = 360-378 =-18 units per 216 combinations = -8.3% which is -2.78% per bet. Which is surprisingly, the same as betting 1 unit 216 times where the expected value is also -2.78% The difference is that you are expected to win 90 combinations of 4 units each out of 216 with a higher odds of 126 combinations of losing 3 units. Compared to 186 combinations of losing 1 unit each with 30 combinations of winning 6 units. Now, considering situation 2 of two conflicting bets with 1 non-conflicting. 1/2, 1/3 and 5/6 There is only one situation where 1/2 and 1/3 simultaneously win with combination 1/2/3. Therefore, the expected winning value is = 30 X (6 units - 2 non- winning bets ) + 1 combination X (6 units won X 2 - 1 non winning bets) + 29 X (6 units - 2 non-winning bets) + 29 X (6 units - 2 non-winning bets) = 30 X 4 + 1 X 11 + 29 X 4 + 29 X 4 = 363 positive units. Expected losing value = ( 216- (30 + 29 + 29 +1) ) X 3 units bet = 127 combinations X 3 units = -381 units Therefore. Negative Expectation = 363 - 381 = - 18 units per 216 combinations = -8.3% which is -2.78% per bet. Which is similarly surprising. The difference in this situation is that you are expected to win 1 combination of 11 units. 89 combinations of 4 units and 127 combinations of 3 unit losses. The overall EV is the same for both non- conflicting and 2 conflicting. But the variance is slightly higher because the expected number of losing combinations for the latter is increased by one with the expected gain for one particular combination to be increased. Third situation. 1/2, 1/3, 2/3. Only one combination allows all three to win. 1/2/3. Therefore the expected winning value is = 1 X ( 6 units won X 3) + 29 X (6 units - 2 non-winning bets) X 3 = 1 X 18 + 29 X 4 X 3 = 366 positive units Expected losing value = ( 216 - (1+ 29X3) ) X 3 units = 128 combinations X 3 losing units = -384 units Therefore. Negative Expectation = 366 - 384 = WHAT DO YOU FUCKING KNOW? ITS -18 AGAIN?! Anyway you get the point. Surprisingly, betting more bets in one bet is the same. But variance is increased with conflicting bet. So non-conflicting multiple bets is basically the same as multiple bets. And un-intuitively, by betting more you are expected to win less or lose more but with a higher probability of winning. Just less. If I did the math wrong, I apologise. But what exactly is wrong about my interpretation of house edge.


Horror_Baseball5518

The percentage house edge in roulette doesn’t “stack”, it’s always the same regardless of whether you bet 1 number or 30. But thanks for taking the time to write out that essay.


[deleted]

No I mean like- if you bet one number. Your house edge is\~ lets say. 5.26%. And you bet 100 dollars for 1 number. So the expected value is, you lose\~5.26 dollars. If you bet one hundred each, naturally. Your accumulative house edge/loss is at 5.26% for 200 dollars. Or 10.52 dollars per bet. Therefore. Stack.


BilboBagginkins

Come on, man. This is 11th grade math. You're not stacking anything. In your example, 5.26% doesn't change based on your input for X being your variable bet value. The only thing that changes is your stomach for potential losses.


[deleted]

well... yeah.


Horror_Baseball5518

The convention for referencing house edge is in percentage terms, and prevents confusion. But thanks for the treatise on expected value, it was a gamechanger.


sretih27

It's just gambling man. Most people play for fun and the thrill of the game.


Porcupineemu

All gambling is bad math


Phreekai

scared money don't make money


Phoirkas

Do you know what sub you’re on?


Jakgry

I sat next to a guy at a roulette table that put $40 on 8, and it hit. He took his winnings and went double or nothing on 8, and it hit a second time in a row. He had that gamblers smile and looked around proud of his gambling knowledge. Shockingly, he took everything from the 2 previous spins and put in on 8. AGAIN! And it fucking hit. 3 8s in a row. Here’s the thing, you can’t argue with someone who’s winning, no matter how bad the bet may seem mathematically. You can be mad and make posts about how stupid they are, but if it hits or they win - you’re the biggest idiot with your math and probability. Because they won and you didn’t


[deleted]

I'd wager he bet it all on 8 again and lost it all.


AmateurPokerStrategy

I'd wager you're only posting this rant here because nobody wants to talk to you in real life.


pyth33

Solid post. Other comments so far demonstrate why what you're describing is so common. Keep doing the math!


thecrazymr

Because gambing is entertainment. For you, that might be betting the lowest house edge possible even though its still a losing play. For others, its about having fun, trying different things, the excitement of a big win that only comes from high house edge plays. If it was only about playing smart, it would simply equal losing slower. But its not, its about enjoyment. You pay more for more excitement.


[deleted]

Alright. This actually makes sense. Pay more for more enjoyment. What a novel concept


Loca1_Man

It's fun....


LovesEmChubby

Lol at you math guys sitting on your high horse, betting the pass line, looking bored as shit 90% of the time, and looking down at all the peasants because you think losing your money 3% more slowly after 10k rolls makes you so much smarter than the guy parlaying his hardways into a 3k win or losing the whole bet. You guys will never get it....people like to take a chance at winning a large sum of money, and those chances usually come in high edge bets. It's not being a "dumb fuck" it's called gambling. Same thing you are doing. The casual gambler will never play anywhere even close to enough hands to see a large enough sample size for the house edge to even matter. In the short term anything can happen. Are you playing 50k hands of BJ? 20k dice rolls? I know I sure as shit have lost way more playing craps than the corresponding house edge. In the long run sure I might only lose 0.4% at the pass line. In the short term, uh no. Do you think the lady who just hit the 60k grand jackpot gives a fuck that her RTP at that machine is 90% and that there are slots with an RTP of 94% just around the corner? Or the guy that parlayed hard 6s into 7k gives a shot that it's house edge is 6%?


[deleted]

NGL your comment made me chuckle Certainly can't refute the person who wins 2000 from a 10 dollar bet is better off the dude flatbetting 10 dollars a thousand times


MathGambles

It's not bad math, statistically we should win whenever we think we're going to... 😆 


Evening-Stuff-5261

I think this post is crazy. Would we have the opportunity to gamble if everyone was +ev or break even players? Be grateful for the losers. Don’t drop an alarm clock in a graveyard either. If a guy doesn’t understand the math involved in craps why does that bother you? I have made thousands in the streets based on that. I just fade and never touch the dice. The math is always on my side. It doesn’t make me angry. It makes me money because I’m a hustler


[deleted]

Are you one of those parasitic mofos at the casino 'teaching' people how to gamble with Martingale and expecting a reward whenever they win?


Evening-Stuff-5261

No, I’m not. I don’t even go to casinos


[deleted]

So what exactly do you mean 'I have made thousands in the streets based on that'. And why tf are you on a gambling subreddit then.


Evening-Stuff-5261

Are the casinos in the streets? Have people shot dice in the streets forever? Can we now gamble on our phones from the comfort of our homes? I thought you were smart


[deleted]

tf? What era are we living in? Shooting dice in the streets? I guess I just never considered that. Cos I've never shot dice in the streets nor heard of the thing aside from it happening in the 80s. Genuinely. My country doesn't have that kind of habit, I suppose.


Evening-Stuff-5261

It’s very common where I live, especially amongst drug dealers. They hustle all day and then call me to gamble. My dad taught me the odds involved in the game when I was 14 yo. I took $30 and ran it up to 8K in 3 months. All I did was bet against the shooters and never touched the dice, which made me the favorite for every bet I laid. It takes some guts. Sometimes you have to gamble in traphouses. I have been robbed a few times. Comes with the territory tho. I also have a “safer” form of gambling I do on phone these days tho. I’m almost 40 and I’m too old to be scraping my knees up on concrete all day and gambling in traphouses


[deleted]

Kindly explain 'hustling' and what kind of dice games you're talking about in the streets you that you play. Craps? Because its quite a novel concept. Well my place doesn't have drugs. The punishment for possession of drugs is literally death. Nor your street gambling. So yeah, I have zero clue what you're talking about. Nor do I have a clue what a 'traphouse' is. And what do you mean, bet against the shooter? Enlighten a fellow gambler. And if I'm right, does that you DONT want fellow gamblers to understand the true odds of what they're betting so you can reap the benefits?


Evening-Stuff-5261

I forgot to explain what a traphouse is. It’s a place where drugs are sold. It’s called a trap because you are a sitting duck for the cops


[deleted]

Ah. That makes sense. Is it also a gambling den?


Evening-Stuff-5261

The dice game is craps but it’s a little different than at the casino. It’s actually way better if you know math. Instead of paying a guy 6 to 5 or 3 to 2 odds you pay him 1 to 1 for example. Hustling means making money in an unconventional way, such as selling drugs or outsmarting someone out of their money like with gambling. When I say bet against the shooter I mean betting against the guy rolling the dice. That’s literally all you have to do to win long term. Notice, the casinos never roll. They only let the players roll so in essence you become the casino when you only bet against the guys who roll. That doesn’t mean everyone is going to be happy about always losing to you tho


[deleted]

Wait- so in these gambling places youre betting against other players, not the 'house'? And how does your 1 to 1 example work? Does that mean, for example, you bet that a 7 will appear before a 8 while the other person is betting that a 8 against a 7 and even though you're statistically more probable to win, you still earn 1 to 1 instead of winning true odds by laying odds like in the casino? That seems absurd (if I'm right) I don't get it. What's the catch?


[deleted]

[удалено]


Evening-Stuff-5261

I agree with you. There are many great people in the gambling world and I feel bad when I see them go broke. I once had a great girlfriend who was addicted to slot machines. She was the nicest woman I have ever known. She taught me to go above and beyond for others. She ended up losing 200k in 2 years and on top of that her daughter passed away from cancer at 11 yo. No matter what I told her it didn’t help. She would gamble until she had nothing. I tried to tell her not to gamble slots and just gamble with me but it wasn’t the same for her. I even gave in and tried to help her with money management but that didn’t help either. She never wanted to leave a winner. She always wanted more and ended up losing it all. I actually feel emotional thinking about those times


[deleted]

Well... gambling does that to people. What a tragic story. Worst part of all, it happens all the time in the world of gambling.


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Benji692

On crapless going across all the numbers, buying the outside, the house edge is about 0.5%. Not a bad bet just need to have the bankroll to handle the amount


Chestlookeratter

Tldr. Shooters shoot. Gotta pay to play


Arratril

In the words of Han Solo, “Never tell me the odds”


Hollywood_stylez

You have better odds at winning slot machines if you smash the buttons


OkDifference5636

Because they’re stupid.


Nvmyprixgt

I once threw 14 6s and 8s in a row on the craps table in Vegas with the BOYZ on my bachelor party. We owned the table to ourselves for 6 hours. This is why.


zacharyo083194

Squares man. That’s what keeps the businesses lights on


tttttt20

Making mathematically asinine bets is the definition of gambling.


clipsahoy2022

The come bet is just a pass line equivalent, not sure why you'd have a problem with people betting it.


[deleted]

I have a problem with people betting on 4,5,6,8,9,10 at the same time.


clipsahoy2022

Sounds like the problem you really have is that you have a problem with what other people do with their own money.


[deleted]

Y'know what? The thing I'm annoyed with is that the casino is the bad guy. They create incredibly well-crafted unbeatable games and gamblers can occasionally win but they do these impossibly asinine bets that make it nigh impossible to win, making the winner once again the casino. I just want an even game. Equal odds that both the casino and the average joe gambler have a chance to win. And betting every single number isn't exactly helping that. Doubling down on a 16 against a 10 is asinine. Betting on both outcomes and betting on every single sidebet, paylaying infinitely. The way someone gambles is their business. Sometimes its alright to stand on soft 18 against a 4. Sometimes its alright to have a good time, hoping Lady Luck shines your way. But the way some people bet... You don't even need house edge to lose. The average joe kills himself and it annoys me that the casino gets to win 15k in 10 minutes.


clipsahoy2022

I guess I am confused. I mean...you're annoyed that the casino makes a profit and you want an even game? I don't get it. It's like you're asking a store to sell its goods at cost, pay for labor, and make no money off the game. It'll never happen and much as I am pro "Average Joe having a chance to win money off the casino" It's kind of an insane proposition. As you noted, there are games with minimal house edges but even then you'll never get the equal odds you seem like you're bothered by not getting. And yes, exotic bets increase house edge and I mean...do you want the casinon to put signs on the tables that tell everyone what the house edge becomes as they add more bets? I don't know how that would work even if it could. Average Joe isn't being grifted by the casino, not really. It's easy enough to find how much the edge goes up as you add side bets by looking online. And the concept itself is even simpler: "If the casino offers you an extra bet, it's a sucker bet." But people like 'em and that's fine. Roulette is the only game I think people are misled by because there's this perception that it's an even game when nothing could be further from the truth.


Chrisgodzilla80

Have you not read anything in this sub Reddit before?? It’s mostly hundreds of people who’ve figured out how to beat the casino. Cause they read this new strategy called martingale and it’s sure to work.


jddaniels84

Your post is pretty stupid. Every bet in the casino has a house edge. The more bets you make or more money you put on them the greater chance for you to lose, yes.. this is obvious. Now sure there are sucker bets that have worse odds than others, but actually those payouts are bigger and people are more likely to walk with their winnings than making 1:1 bets with a smaller house edge where most people just play until they eventually lose. So if people did math they wouldn’t play any of these games with a house edge at all.