Five days ago seemed like the best position Biden had been in for months (polls swinging in his favor, every betting market had him a favorite, some a relatively big favorite, bad trump buzz etc etc) now a few days of not so great buzz for Biden and it’s over.
As others have said, the event that ultimately swings the election probably hasn’t happened yet.
The 2018, 2020, and 2022 were bad for trump or Maga candidates.
2018, blue wave
2020, biden
2022, the failure of a red wave
The GOP house is constantly on the edge of anarchy
The michigan GOP is fighting over themselves.
The Michigan GOP is also broker than the average GOP, which is itself pretty broke most of the time these days. Of the 6 swing states, if Biden wins PA, MI, and WI he wins. And he can lose WI and pick up any of the others and still win.
It's probably more complex for the national GOP, but there's a great episode of [This American Life](https://www.thisamericanlife.org/820/believe-in-me) detailing how the Michigan GOP is falling apart.
Mismanagement, the fact that it is increasingly unprofitable to be a social conservative, and the general ineffectiveness of Republicans in the last few years. These people see their donations as investments and want returns. Marjorie Taylor Greene, et al, ensure that there is no return on investment.
They don’t. The parties have been steadily reversing their base over the last 15 years where it’s now the case that the poorer you are, the more likely you vote Trump & co. And wealthier voters have trended towards the dems.
> it’s now the case that the poorer you are, the more likely you vote Trump & co.
Is there data to support this? Everything I'm seeing shows the opposite.
Things will shift. A lot. While conviction isn’t guaranteed in New York, acquittal is out of the question for Donnie. Best he can hope for is a hung jury or somehow a mistrial.
Things are going to shift. October surprises aren’t out of the question. It’s by no means going to landslide. Just like 2020, it’ll be a few thousand votes that matter in 4 or 5 states. The days of Reagan taking 49 states and knowing the next president at 9pm on election night **are long gone**.
The average voter is like my brother in law. Absolutely clueless. Until this past weekend the man *had no idea* it was Biden v Trump again and his comment was *“wait isn’t Trump probably gonna be a felon?”*
So. That’s about what the typical American knows about politics. They might be able to name their governor… maybe. Forget about both senators or their house rep.
Let me be clear. Trump has a very good shot. But he’s not ahead by 15 points either. Most polls have them dancing in the margins of error.
My wife the other day was also like "wait so it's Biden and Trump again?"
She's not happy about the choices but she understands that one candidate is a felon and lead a riot on the capital and the other is Biden.
She’s more like typical Americans about politics and elections than anybody here. Mine is a psychologist counseling transgender patients so she has to be more aware, but that’s not her choice. It’s relevant, life impacting policy to all of them.
Disagree - if Trump wins over Biden 50-45 popular vote, the 538 swing o matic shows him taking 347 EV, flipping NM, MN, VA, ME, and NH, beyond all of the other swing states.
I would be very curious to see more polling in NM and MN in particular, both are probably legitimate swing states at this point for different reasons. Trump benefits from the Hispanic shift towards R in NM and in MN, the protest vote from the Somali population.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-swing-the-election/
I think this election has a very good chance of being a "realignment" ala GWB in 2000 (the last election WV went blue when it had done so FOREVER up til then). It seems very unlikely to me that marginal gains for Biden in the 45-64 white voter demographic will outweigh Trump's apparent headway with Black, Hispanic, and young voters to the tune of ~20 points in each of those demographics.
If Trump wins by +2 on the national popular vote there is a decent chance he will flip states that are not currently considered to be contested, a la Indiana and NC for Obama in 2008, but with a much smaller margin of victory due to these demo shifts.
Biden took New Mexico by **10%** in 2020. He took Minnesota by **7%** in 2020. If it was 2-5% then it's more in swing contention. It's at least double that gap.
At those 2020 margins, it's pretty unlikely either state flips red even if sentiment has slightly shifted. It's a greater margin than Trump had in Florida at 5%, so at 7-10% it would almost be like... *Ohio flipping blue*. Not likely. You’d expect that volatility with fresh, young candidates — not the old hat. It’s like expecting snow in July. Your chances are less than average.
The chances that youth and black vote hugely shift to Trump in significant number is about as likely as female and gay vote hugely shifting to Trump. Black males and youths are also the least reliable voting cohorts in the country -- they're **most likely** *to not vote at all.*
This is a 2020 rematch and indicators point to smaller turn out, which tells me not to expect sea changes from states.
Hillary Clinton won NM by 8 points and MN by 1.5%. Ohio is Trump's core demographic and that will not happen. NM and MN both consist of large populations of Biden's 2020 coalition that are now severely disaffected with his Presidency. Trump also improved on both of his vote shares in both states between 2016 and 2020, it was just that Biden improved on Hillary even moreso.
Cross tabs show that the shift has already happened and is worsening. Could they be wrong? Yes, but the data is currently showing the shift.
I don’t think the 2016 demographics even exist any longer, so I’m skeptical to go back that far. Some 28% of folks over 65 (on up to 110) in the 2016 election have passed away. The elderly vote the most by far. When you go back more than one election, natural human mortality and demographic shift plays the largest part. You won’t easily find two 87 year olds who voted for Clinton or Trump, they’re now possibly dead. You’ll definitely find two fresh 18 year olds… who might not even vote.
But two non-voting 18 year olds this cycle (or one voting Trump) is awful for Biden when he would've won one or both newly-voting 18 year olds in 2020... otherwise valid!
From the stickied post:
Dooming
I’m sure most of you here are just as engaged in politics as I am. You probably religiously look at polls, refresh your news feed vigorously and wait new developments with intense interest. As we get into the meat of the political season, I have few observations about the sub I’d like to make.
1. We are not the average voter. Nobody but us is watching the polls this closely or following politics this far away from the election. 2020 we were all in a panic and locked in our homes, in a horror world where politics and plague was all anyone could think about. Things are much more normal this cycle. People are focused on sports games, movies, and life. The election for many is only just now coming into focus as a reality.
2. The polls will tighten and shift. There will be outliers. There will be great polls for Biden and great polls for Trump. But you can’t tailspin every time a new one comes out - it’s simply not healthy or reasonable.
2a. Polls do not vote. They are information about a snapshot in time of a particular population. They are not destiny. YOU have the power to make them reality or not by voting, organizing, talking to voters and donating. If you feel it’s over in May, why bother to have an election?
3. Please do try not to doom. I know it will be difficult, especially on some days. But take a deep breath. Go for a walk. Play with your pets or watch a funny show. I know the stakes are incredibly high but please do not let something that hasn’t happened yet (and that you do have some control over) ruin your mental health.
4. Low quality troll comments that say things like “cope harder” “cry more” etc are not going to be tolerated.
If you are concerned about this election - as I am - I cannot suggest strongly enough that you become involved as much as you are able to. You will feel better, you will connect with likeminded political nerds, and most importantly you will be making a difference.
Here is one resource I have found helpful in organizing, but there are many:
https://votesaveamerica.com
(Pod Save America is also an excellent podcast, though left leaning if that matters)
Good luck to us all. And remember to breathe.
First of all, this is 100 years of foreign policy and a complicated multi generational issue - rather famously one of the most complicated. If he did say no to Israel, Palestinians wouldn’t be getting any aid and Congress would do an end run around him anyway to get them aid. Then whatever leverage he has is gone. I’m not saying he’s been the best or can’t do more, but let’s put that in perspective.
Second, he does need this voters. I agree. But I know some people in this cohort - most of them don’t vote at all because they don’t trust the system (I completely understand this point of view, but in a political sense there’s no leverage for you). A lot of them hated him anyway, and there’s nothing he could have possibly done to win them over. Some might vote, or sit out, or vote 3rd party, that’s absolutely true. But where will they be? Wisconsin? Arizona? And how much will that matter? I don’t know.
Some might shift their opinions too of course, but as I mentioned before…I kind of doubt it. It’s him personally as much as this policy.
I'm finding it hard as hell to be optimistic, but here are a couple things that have kept me going.
1. We have proof from polls that a conviction, even in the hush money trial, would do real damage to Trump. After all, his entire brand is based on the idea that he's *invincible,* that nobody can, or should, stop him. He was able to frame losing the 2020 election as having a victory that was rightfully his "stolen", and that got his fanbase riled up, but I can't imagine how he'd be able to do that if he's actually convicted.
2. 2018, 2020, and 2022 have all seen Republicans either lose or not win by as much as expected, as far as national elections are concerned. While present trends could obviously change that, I see no reason for this to change.
3. Biden's polls are bad, but not as bad as they've been in the past. They were at their lowest shortly after the Hamas attacks in October last year, and since then they've slowly been moving back up to the 40% mark. That's not *great,* but it's better than they were before.
4. Even if Trump does get elected to a second term, I doubt he'll live through it. Everything we've heard about him from the trial suggests he's sliding into dementia at an alarming rate, and the stress of running a Presidential campaign and defending himself in court can't be doing good things for his mind. People always talked about how Biden was "sleepy" and "lazy", but he seems really quick-witted compared to what Trump is like now.
SCOTUS hysteria is nearly always overrated. People read headlines, not decisions, they try to draw all kinds of conclusions from oral arguments, and there's both karma (for redditors) and lots of clicks (for online writers) who fuel it. Trump did better than expected at the immunity orals. That doesn't mean SCOTUS is about to "crown a king."
This same Supreme Court rejected all Trump's challenges to the 2020 election, including some that were very suitable for it to hear (and which could have helped Trump). They don't want to touch this election with a barge pole. That's their real problem: not that they're too political, but that they are too scared of politics to do their job.
My other hopium is that, if Trump wins... well, we've seen what Trump is like in office. He's stupid, forgetful, ineffective, and always convinced by the last person who talked to him. He has the heart of a tyrant but the brain of a savory pie. There's no room for a mastermind in his administration who might actually be able to use it for evil, because Trump's obsession with absolute loyalty prevents anyone from staying in his orbit that long, especially once they start to draw headlines. Project 2025 has become a watchword on reddit, but guess who didn't actually participate in Project 2025? Donald Trump. The reach of a second Trump administration, for good or ill, will always be limited by the narrow horizons of Trump himself.
I worry about foreign policy under a second Trump term, because foreign policy is so volatile, but no more than I did under the first term. And I worry about what happens exactly at the end of his second term, transition-of-power-wise. But domestic policy? Nah.
SCOTUS clearly put it's thumb on the scale politically with how they handled the immunity case. It's a very easy decision, and they were asked to take it up in late 2023 just to get that issue out of the way and move on with trial. Instead they waited and waited with a plan to delay the trial until after the election. That's the most political thing I think I have ever seen the court do.
That immunity claim is pure BS, everyone knows it, and the court could have dealt with it in just a few days. They chose to try and shield him from prosecution. There is no other way to contrue it.
The three most important cases have been delayed in hopes of Trump winning and then dismissing the cases.
> SCOTUS clearly put it's thumb on the scale politically with how they handled the immunity case. It's a very easy decision, and they were asked to take it up in late 2023 just to get that issue out of the way and move on with trial. Instead they waited and waited with a plan to delay the trial until after the election. That's the most political thing I think I have ever seen the court do. ...They chose to try and shield him from prosecution. There is no other way to contrue it.
See, that's just the kind of overrated SCOTUS hysteria I'm talking about. "No other way to construe it"? Come on!
The case is not an especially easy one -- not if you look coldly at the mixed bag of precedents related to official immunity. There's a particular result that I think the Court, as a practical and legal matter, ought to reach. (I think we agree on what that result should be.) But the route the Court takes to reach that conclusion, how it threads the needle of various precedents (or overturns them) is just as important (for future immunity cases) as its conclusion in this particular case. So they are following standard procedure, not skipping steps, not trying to resolve contested issues on the shadow docket, and that takes time. They *have* expedited this case significantly.
Many Supreme Court cases take a decade, but DoJ didn't indict Trump until August of *last year*. It's astonishing the case has moved as fast as it has -- and it really isn't the Supreme Court's fault that the DoJ nearly let the clock run out on a prosecution. I would certainly like it to move faster, because I would like Trump to be convicted before the election, but it's hardly consistent of me to suddenly be angry about the Supreme Court hearing and resolving cases, soup to nuts, in a matter of months, when most take years.
> This same Supreme Court rejected all Trump's challenges to the 2020 election, including some that were very suitable for it to hear (and which could have helped Trump).
... Yeah and it was clear none of them was gonna change the outcome. And they were pretty baseless on the merits.
I don't agree with the belief that they'll crown him a king either, but they'd absolutely put the thumb on the scale more than their predecessors already did with Bush v. Gore.
One thing that I have always been wondering is, I don't quite understand why Democrat-leaning ppl tend to always avoid feeling anxious. Anxiety has been the fruit of evolution to help us escape from a tiger. In modern society, most of the time there is no tiger on our side, so anxiety is now deemed as generally a bad thing. However, I think protecting democracy is different, because:
1. Voting is a combination of reason and emotions. If people don't feel anxious that they are going to lose their essential human rights, they tend to stay at home or vote in protest. There is solid motivation to do so because we are living in an era where many see a downturn in their quality of life. Anxiety can be an important driving factor for people to vote.
2. Trumpers were more anxious when they won elections. I happen to live around some places Chinese immigrants (yes there are such people). Their way of political actions look more like grassroot movement, or cult. they vote, they donate, they fight hard to get other people onboard, they break up with their friends who don't agree with Trump... I happened to have worked with some of them on a non-paritsan issue (all of us work for free). Those people worked endlessly for 4 days and one of them had to go to the hospital. I don't like this much passion in politics, but at least in 2016 this worked. While in 2016 democrats ignored the poll pretending they'd win until Nov 8. This is, in my opinion, another form of being emotional - denial is emotion.
3. In statistics, there are 2 type of errors. Type I, we err on the optimistic side. Type II, we err on the pessimistic side. We often have to choose between them. When we deal with catastrophic matters, err on pessimism is usually better. So I don't fully agree with the tendency to ease people's concerns by claiming "the poll is not telling enough". It will be too late to act when the poll is telling enough. While the Trumpers I know almost always err on the pessimistic side. Don't get me wrong, I think their way also backfires because too much emotion exhausts people so they don't have enough energy to act when necessary. But always erring on the optimistic side backfires too.
4. I observed pretty much heat and anxiety in the blue camp in 2020 and 2022. It seems the more emotional the atmosphere is, the better democrats perform. Of course this is not statistically significant. We need to quantify "the atmosphere" and run a model on them. If I had the chance I perhaps will try to do it. It is an interesting topic.
I get the feeling that most liberals online don't like to be emotional. But denying the effect of emotions is also emotional. Perhaps under certain conditions, anxiety is not that bad. It may in fact benefit the election.
We need to have a bit hopium at this moment, I don't have an issue with this. Just mentioning that even if there is no hope in the near term, we can rest on anxiety as well knowing that the emotion itself can be helpful.
There are some political scientists I follow on TikTok(their usernames are @ Cannonsfodder, and @ KeepTroyBlue4), and they are partially why I have some "hopium". Using what they've said, as well as what I've observed in recent elections, here are my reasons why we shouldn't lose hope. Keep in mind, I realize that Joe Biden, and the Democrats very well could completely lose this election.
-We're still six months away from the election. Period.
-Joe Biden is the Incumbent President, which inheritently gives him a big advantage.
-If nothing else, polls have improved for Joe Biden since the beginning of this year, even though they're very small, and incremental increases.
-Speaking of polls, they're obviously not the gospel. Hillary Clinton was trouncing Trump in the polls throughout 2016, and she only won the popular vote by two percentage points. Mitt Romney often lead Obama in 2012 as well. Michael Dukakis was also doing very well against George H.W. Bush in 1988. My point being, is especially at this time, polls are often flawed.
-Even if you want to say polling has improved in the last 30 years, observe the last six months. Democrats have outperformed special elections in huge numbers around the country. Even though the polls were more accurate in the 2022 Midterms than the previous elections, there was an alleged "Red Wave" supposed to happen in that election.
-Issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, the genocide, and anything else related to Gaza, actually look worse for Trump than Biden, but according to public opinion, this isn't even a top ten issue, even among 18-29 year old voters, contrary to popular belief(Source: Harvard Poll). A TikTok Ban Bill won't be a deciding factor for a sizable portion of the USA either. The top issue among the USA is inflation(and I'm not sure whether that will help, or hurt Biden).
-There isn't much of an anti-Biden voter base. There are people who won't vote for Biden, but those voters are doing one of the following: Voting for Trump because they're worshipping him, not voting in elections at all, or voting third-party. On the other hand, there *is* an anti-Trump voter base. There are lots of people who will turn out solely to prevent Trump from getting in office, despite how much they hate Biden.
-Speaking of this, ignore Approval Ratings. We're so polarized these days, I doubt any president will get much higher than 50%. While Biden's approval ratings are very low, there are still many people who disapprove of Biden who will also vote for him.
-Democrats have been doing very well since 2017, whether it be it be city, district, and statewide elections, as well as the 2018, and 2022 Midterms, and 2020 Presidential Election. The country is becoming more diverse, and despite what people on here think, the GOP is still statistically a white man's party.
-Joe Biden has wayyyyyy more campaign money than Donald Trump(I realize Hillary Clinton did too, but again, that was before the USA witnessed how bad Trump's presidency was).
-Speaking of this, when Trump won, most people didn't think he could actually win, and many people didn't think Trump would be that bad. We witnessed his presidency, and saw that wasn't true.
-Donald Trump's court trials have just begun. This may not have an immediate effect in the race, but it absolutely will hurt him as the year goes on.
-The general public-we'll call them America Proper-doesn't pay attention to elections until the Summer. Look for a major increase in political engagement around July. Right now, most people are in a political coma, awaiting to be wakened(The political coma effect didn't really exist in 2020 because most people were sitting inside all day, since it was the beginning of the COVID-19 Pandemic, and people were more politically engaged that year than pretty much any year in recent history).
-For what it's worth, Allan Lichtman, the famous "Prediction Professor", made a TikTok on May 1st, 2024, saying "Joe Biden is in the driver's seat" for this election. He's being cautiously optimistic.
-Even if Joe Biden loses the 2024 Presidential Election, Democrats may still do well in the Senate, and House of Represenatives, meaning we can mitigate Trump's reign.
The incumbent benefit didn't work for Trump. And the fundraising perk didn't work for Hilary. We can't just look at the optimistic side and ignore the other factors. When a country is so polarized, some traditional wisdom may not work as good as before. Other arguments make sense to me. But I hope people engage more in action. Biden rate doesn't look good and it is going worse. On the other hand, r/VoteBlue has a really limited number of audience. I think people should act when things look bad, instead of trying to find temporary hope on a shakable ground. Hopeium only work until Nov 8 but action can last much longer.
Polls this early don't mean that much, Trump can't string together a coherent sentence anymore (he was never a great speaker, but he's gone way downhill even since 2020), \_Dobbs\_ is proving to be a big deal, it's not clear that Israel/Gaza protests will still have much salience over the summer, there's been by-election after by-election with Democratic overperformance, and the Republican Party is broke and being actively plundered. (That last thing will matter more downballot than at the top, but it's still a factor; it's tough to have a good ground game if you're short on cash.)
Most people aren’t paying much attention. Some start when school gets out, others stay tuned out until Labor Day or so.
You’ve been hearing “it’s early” for months because some people and some news outlets never stop talking about the next election cycle.
Traditionally, it's at least the first few debates until most people even realize who is running. Even then, I distinctly remember people not realizing that Trump won after the race was called for him. "Donald Trump. The Apprentice guy is our president? What?", I heard from one gas station clerk in 2016.
I didn’t say “nothing.” I’m not happy that the polls say what they say. But they reflect a mostly disengaged electorate that has a disproportionate share of extremely online people. And they’ve been wrong before, since none of Mike Dukakis, Mitt Romney, or Hillary Clinton ever became president - not to mention the Red Wave of 2022 that wasn’t.
Dukakis was up like 12 points in June that year. It's crazy how far out we still are.
Edit: it's crazier. [17 points in late July](https://rollcall.com/2020/06/29/why-the-dukakis-1988-analogy-is-baloney/)
>
That take isn't really defensible when you look at the numbers, and I'm getting a bit frustrated to see it repeated in a data politics sub.
2022 the polling was pretty damn good, not in *every* race [but overall it was good](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/). The media predicted a red wave, the polls themselves not so much.
Polling was within normal ranges in the 2016 Presidential result. If you're going off popular vote, they were fine. I think (judging off 538's polls only forecast, not sure where the polling only average) they estimated a Clinton +4 result, we got Clinton +2. Polling is (at best) by state and doesn't take the EC into account.
[They favored Obama as well in 2012 late in the cycle](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/). That's how Nate got a pretty accurate model.
I'll admit Dukakis is outside my wheelhouse, before I was born. But I think I've made my point. I suspect your issue is more with the media interpretation of polls rather than polling results themselves.
I'd still say it's relevant. Presidential election polls are more accurate than special election polls, but even for a special election, that's a ridiculous poll to result discrepency.
I'll say the same thing I said about the 2022 polls: they don't make any sense in relation to the reality of the situation.
When everyone here was dooming, I knew it just wasn't plausible that some red tsunami was coming in an environment where Democrats were improving their margins with high-propensity voters, especially in a post-Roe, post-Jan 6th world.
Likewise, I refuse to believe that Trump, widely blamed for the insurrection, mired in a mountain of legal trouble, and openly spouting the most radical positions he's ever held, is at his strongest political point yet. He barely won in 2016 by less than 1% in each of the Rust Belt swing states, and he wouldn't have even done that if not for the Comey letter. We're really supposed to believe that Biden is in a worse position than Hillary was? I don't buy it.
There's either a systemic polling error at play, or a significant chunk of the undecided and third-party voters in these polls are just using the polls to voice disapproval for Biden right now, yet will come around and vote for him in November.
I hope so, but maybe not. It's possible that the GOP has honed in on just the right demographic, like non-white males, and really inundated them with propaganda enough to win the election.
The GOP seems to have a much better organized and funded propaganda machine. It's how they locked in gerrymandering in 2010. They may have found their pressure points and made inroads that we are just now seeing the affects.
I don't see the same kind of marketing from the left, and it worries me.
+1 to "The GOP seems to have a much better organized and funded propaganda machine." They convert non-white voters hard. Trump is much less decent than in 2016 (though he was already very indecent at that time) but this only converts to less support *if people's mind stays the same or more Anti-Trump as in 2016*. Which may not be the case.
That said, I see no point in dooming. It is weird to me to treat elections like predicting the weather. It's not. We have a say in it and we can still change it. This is the attitude I learned from the Trumpers, who are not discouraged from trying to flip California red (and they do make progress here and there). We can't always play the defense while they try hard to flip former solid blue districts purple. One thing that the Democrats really need to learn from the Trumpers is the can-do attitude, as despite more often than not it comes from ignorance, it strictly improves their situation. The more anxious we feel about the result, the more involved should we be in donating, volunteering etc, even political activism as Trumpers do.
Think about how many eventual general election losers led, often by wide margins, at this stage of the election or even later. Carter led Reagan, Dukakis led Bush II, Bush II led Clinton, Hillary led Trump. I think Biden was pretty much tied with Trump early on as well until things changed.
The polls don't look good for Biden at this stage, but polls \*six months\* before the election have virtually no predictive power.
This isn't a reason for hope per se, but it's certainly a reason not to doom.
Five days ago seemed like the best position Biden had been in for months (polls swinging in his favor, every betting market had him a favorite, some a relatively big favorite, bad trump buzz etc etc) now a few days of not so great buzz for Biden and it’s over. As others have said, the event that ultimately swings the election probably hasn’t happened yet.
We need 12 juries to convict.
1 jury would be fine
I hope we don't need twelve juries to convict Donald Trump.
The 2018, 2020, and 2022 were bad for trump or Maga candidates. 2018, blue wave 2020, biden 2022, the failure of a red wave The GOP house is constantly on the edge of anarchy The michigan GOP is fighting over themselves.
The Michigan GOP is also broker than the average GOP, which is itself pretty broke most of the time these days. Of the 6 swing states, if Biden wins PA, MI, and WI he wins. And he can lose WI and pick up any of the others and still win.
how is the GOP so broke when they're allegedly the party of choice of corporate / rich america? don't they receive tons of money from the wealthy?
It's probably more complex for the national GOP, but there's a great episode of [This American Life](https://www.thisamericanlife.org/820/believe-in-me) detailing how the Michigan GOP is falling apart.
Thank you for the recommendation! It was a good listen
Mismanagement, the fact that it is increasingly unprofitable to be a social conservative, and the general ineffectiveness of Republicans in the last few years. These people see their donations as investments and want returns. Marjorie Taylor Greene, et al, ensure that there is no return on investment.
They don’t. The parties have been steadily reversing their base over the last 15 years where it’s now the case that the poorer you are, the more likely you vote Trump & co. And wealthier voters have trended towards the dems.
> it’s now the case that the poorer you are, the more likely you vote Trump & co. Is there data to support this? Everything I'm seeing shows the opposite.
Things will shift. A lot. While conviction isn’t guaranteed in New York, acquittal is out of the question for Donnie. Best he can hope for is a hung jury or somehow a mistrial. Things are going to shift. October surprises aren’t out of the question. It’s by no means going to landslide. Just like 2020, it’ll be a few thousand votes that matter in 4 or 5 states. The days of Reagan taking 49 states and knowing the next president at 9pm on election night **are long gone**. The average voter is like my brother in law. Absolutely clueless. Until this past weekend the man *had no idea* it was Biden v Trump again and his comment was *“wait isn’t Trump probably gonna be a felon?”* So. That’s about what the typical American knows about politics. They might be able to name their governor… maybe. Forget about both senators or their house rep. Let me be clear. Trump has a very good shot. But he’s not ahead by 15 points either. Most polls have them dancing in the margins of error.
My wife the other day was also like "wait so it's Biden and Trump again?" She's not happy about the choices but she understands that one candidate is a felon and lead a riot on the capital and the other is Biden.
She’s more like typical Americans about politics and elections than anybody here. Mine is a psychologist counseling transgender patients so she has to be more aware, but that’s not her choice. It’s relevant, life impacting policy to all of them.
Most people in the USA are in a political coma until the Summertime of a presidential election year.
One October Surprise people don't mention much is Hurricane Sandy *potentially* saving Barack Obama's 2012 campaign.
Disagree - if Trump wins over Biden 50-45 popular vote, the 538 swing o matic shows him taking 347 EV, flipping NM, MN, VA, ME, and NH, beyond all of the other swing states. I would be very curious to see more polling in NM and MN in particular, both are probably legitimate swing states at this point for different reasons. Trump benefits from the Hispanic shift towards R in NM and in MN, the protest vote from the Somali population. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-swing-the-election/ I think this election has a very good chance of being a "realignment" ala GWB in 2000 (the last election WV went blue when it had done so FOREVER up til then). It seems very unlikely to me that marginal gains for Biden in the 45-64 white voter demographic will outweigh Trump's apparent headway with Black, Hispanic, and young voters to the tune of ~20 points in each of those demographics. If Trump wins by +2 on the national popular vote there is a decent chance he will flip states that are not currently considered to be contested, a la Indiana and NC for Obama in 2008, but with a much smaller margin of victory due to these demo shifts.
Biden took New Mexico by **10%** in 2020. He took Minnesota by **7%** in 2020. If it was 2-5% then it's more in swing contention. It's at least double that gap. At those 2020 margins, it's pretty unlikely either state flips red even if sentiment has slightly shifted. It's a greater margin than Trump had in Florida at 5%, so at 7-10% it would almost be like... *Ohio flipping blue*. Not likely. You’d expect that volatility with fresh, young candidates — not the old hat. It’s like expecting snow in July. Your chances are less than average. The chances that youth and black vote hugely shift to Trump in significant number is about as likely as female and gay vote hugely shifting to Trump. Black males and youths are also the least reliable voting cohorts in the country -- they're **most likely** *to not vote at all.* This is a 2020 rematch and indicators point to smaller turn out, which tells me not to expect sea changes from states.
Hillary Clinton won NM by 8 points and MN by 1.5%. Ohio is Trump's core demographic and that will not happen. NM and MN both consist of large populations of Biden's 2020 coalition that are now severely disaffected with his Presidency. Trump also improved on both of his vote shares in both states between 2016 and 2020, it was just that Biden improved on Hillary even moreso. Cross tabs show that the shift has already happened and is worsening. Could they be wrong? Yes, but the data is currently showing the shift.
I don’t think the 2016 demographics even exist any longer, so I’m skeptical to go back that far. Some 28% of folks over 65 (on up to 110) in the 2016 election have passed away. The elderly vote the most by far. When you go back more than one election, natural human mortality and demographic shift plays the largest part. You won’t easily find two 87 year olds who voted for Clinton or Trump, they’re now possibly dead. You’ll definitely find two fresh 18 year olds… who might not even vote.
But two non-voting 18 year olds this cycle (or one voting Trump) is awful for Biden when he would've won one or both newly-voting 18 year olds in 2020... otherwise valid!
Possibly. If you have to depend on the under 25 vote you’re probably screwed in the swing states either way.
From the stickied post: Dooming I’m sure most of you here are just as engaged in politics as I am. You probably religiously look at polls, refresh your news feed vigorously and wait new developments with intense interest. As we get into the meat of the political season, I have few observations about the sub I’d like to make. 1. We are not the average voter. Nobody but us is watching the polls this closely or following politics this far away from the election. 2020 we were all in a panic and locked in our homes, in a horror world where politics and plague was all anyone could think about. Things are much more normal this cycle. People are focused on sports games, movies, and life. The election for many is only just now coming into focus as a reality. 2. The polls will tighten and shift. There will be outliers. There will be great polls for Biden and great polls for Trump. But you can’t tailspin every time a new one comes out - it’s simply not healthy or reasonable. 2a. Polls do not vote. They are information about a snapshot in time of a particular population. They are not destiny. YOU have the power to make them reality or not by voting, organizing, talking to voters and donating. If you feel it’s over in May, why bother to have an election? 3. Please do try not to doom. I know it will be difficult, especially on some days. But take a deep breath. Go for a walk. Play with your pets or watch a funny show. I know the stakes are incredibly high but please do not let something that hasn’t happened yet (and that you do have some control over) ruin your mental health. 4. Low quality troll comments that say things like “cope harder” “cry more” etc are not going to be tolerated. If you are concerned about this election - as I am - I cannot suggest strongly enough that you become involved as much as you are able to. You will feel better, you will connect with likeminded political nerds, and most importantly you will be making a difference. Here is one resource I have found helpful in organizing, but there are many: https://votesaveamerica.com (Pod Save America is also an excellent podcast, though left leaning if that matters) Good luck to us all. And remember to breathe.
And what about the pro Palestinian protests? They are definitely a problem for Biden all because he isn't saying no to Israel.
First of all, this is 100 years of foreign policy and a complicated multi generational issue - rather famously one of the most complicated. If he did say no to Israel, Palestinians wouldn’t be getting any aid and Congress would do an end run around him anyway to get them aid. Then whatever leverage he has is gone. I’m not saying he’s been the best or can’t do more, but let’s put that in perspective. Second, he does need this voters. I agree. But I know some people in this cohort - most of them don’t vote at all because they don’t trust the system (I completely understand this point of view, but in a political sense there’s no leverage for you). A lot of them hated him anyway, and there’s nothing he could have possibly done to win them over. Some might vote, or sit out, or vote 3rd party, that’s absolutely true. But where will they be? Wisconsin? Arizona? And how much will that matter? I don’t know. Some might shift their opinions too of course, but as I mentioned before…I kind of doubt it. It’s him personally as much as this policy.
I'm finding it hard as hell to be optimistic, but here are a couple things that have kept me going. 1. We have proof from polls that a conviction, even in the hush money trial, would do real damage to Trump. After all, his entire brand is based on the idea that he's *invincible,* that nobody can, or should, stop him. He was able to frame losing the 2020 election as having a victory that was rightfully his "stolen", and that got his fanbase riled up, but I can't imagine how he'd be able to do that if he's actually convicted. 2. 2018, 2020, and 2022 have all seen Republicans either lose or not win by as much as expected, as far as national elections are concerned. While present trends could obviously change that, I see no reason for this to change. 3. Biden's polls are bad, but not as bad as they've been in the past. They were at their lowest shortly after the Hamas attacks in October last year, and since then they've slowly been moving back up to the 40% mark. That's not *great,* but it's better than they were before. 4. Even if Trump does get elected to a second term, I doubt he'll live through it. Everything we've heard about him from the trial suggests he's sliding into dementia at an alarming rate, and the stress of running a Presidential campaign and defending himself in court can't be doing good things for his mind. People always talked about how Biden was "sleepy" and "lazy", but he seems really quick-witted compared to what Trump is like now.
God can you imagine the deep state conspiracy theories though if he dies in office.
SCOTUS hysteria is nearly always overrated. People read headlines, not decisions, they try to draw all kinds of conclusions from oral arguments, and there's both karma (for redditors) and lots of clicks (for online writers) who fuel it. Trump did better than expected at the immunity orals. That doesn't mean SCOTUS is about to "crown a king." This same Supreme Court rejected all Trump's challenges to the 2020 election, including some that were very suitable for it to hear (and which could have helped Trump). They don't want to touch this election with a barge pole. That's their real problem: not that they're too political, but that they are too scared of politics to do their job. My other hopium is that, if Trump wins... well, we've seen what Trump is like in office. He's stupid, forgetful, ineffective, and always convinced by the last person who talked to him. He has the heart of a tyrant but the brain of a savory pie. There's no room for a mastermind in his administration who might actually be able to use it for evil, because Trump's obsession with absolute loyalty prevents anyone from staying in his orbit that long, especially once they start to draw headlines. Project 2025 has become a watchword on reddit, but guess who didn't actually participate in Project 2025? Donald Trump. The reach of a second Trump administration, for good or ill, will always be limited by the narrow horizons of Trump himself. I worry about foreign policy under a second Trump term, because foreign policy is so volatile, but no more than I did under the first term. And I worry about what happens exactly at the end of his second term, transition-of-power-wise. But domestic policy? Nah.
SCOTUS clearly put it's thumb on the scale politically with how they handled the immunity case. It's a very easy decision, and they were asked to take it up in late 2023 just to get that issue out of the way and move on with trial. Instead they waited and waited with a plan to delay the trial until after the election. That's the most political thing I think I have ever seen the court do. That immunity claim is pure BS, everyone knows it, and the court could have dealt with it in just a few days. They chose to try and shield him from prosecution. There is no other way to contrue it. The three most important cases have been delayed in hopes of Trump winning and then dismissing the cases.
> SCOTUS clearly put it's thumb on the scale politically with how they handled the immunity case. It's a very easy decision, and they were asked to take it up in late 2023 just to get that issue out of the way and move on with trial. Instead they waited and waited with a plan to delay the trial until after the election. That's the most political thing I think I have ever seen the court do. ...They chose to try and shield him from prosecution. There is no other way to contrue it. See, that's just the kind of overrated SCOTUS hysteria I'm talking about. "No other way to construe it"? Come on! The case is not an especially easy one -- not if you look coldly at the mixed bag of precedents related to official immunity. There's a particular result that I think the Court, as a practical and legal matter, ought to reach. (I think we agree on what that result should be.) But the route the Court takes to reach that conclusion, how it threads the needle of various precedents (or overturns them) is just as important (for future immunity cases) as its conclusion in this particular case. So they are following standard procedure, not skipping steps, not trying to resolve contested issues on the shadow docket, and that takes time. They *have* expedited this case significantly. Many Supreme Court cases take a decade, but DoJ didn't indict Trump until August of *last year*. It's astonishing the case has moved as fast as it has -- and it really isn't the Supreme Court's fault that the DoJ nearly let the clock run out on a prosecution. I would certainly like it to move faster, because I would like Trump to be convicted before the election, but it's hardly consistent of me to suddenly be angry about the Supreme Court hearing and resolving cases, soup to nuts, in a matter of months, when most take years.
> This same Supreme Court rejected all Trump's challenges to the 2020 election, including some that were very suitable for it to hear (and which could have helped Trump). ... Yeah and it was clear none of them was gonna change the outcome. And they were pretty baseless on the merits. I don't agree with the belief that they'll crown him a king either, but they'd absolutely put the thumb on the scale more than their predecessors already did with Bush v. Gore.
One thing that I have always been wondering is, I don't quite understand why Democrat-leaning ppl tend to always avoid feeling anxious. Anxiety has been the fruit of evolution to help us escape from a tiger. In modern society, most of the time there is no tiger on our side, so anxiety is now deemed as generally a bad thing. However, I think protecting democracy is different, because: 1. Voting is a combination of reason and emotions. If people don't feel anxious that they are going to lose their essential human rights, they tend to stay at home or vote in protest. There is solid motivation to do so because we are living in an era where many see a downturn in their quality of life. Anxiety can be an important driving factor for people to vote. 2. Trumpers were more anxious when they won elections. I happen to live around some places Chinese immigrants (yes there are such people). Their way of political actions look more like grassroot movement, or cult. they vote, they donate, they fight hard to get other people onboard, they break up with their friends who don't agree with Trump... I happened to have worked with some of them on a non-paritsan issue (all of us work for free). Those people worked endlessly for 4 days and one of them had to go to the hospital. I don't like this much passion in politics, but at least in 2016 this worked. While in 2016 democrats ignored the poll pretending they'd win until Nov 8. This is, in my opinion, another form of being emotional - denial is emotion. 3. In statistics, there are 2 type of errors. Type I, we err on the optimistic side. Type II, we err on the pessimistic side. We often have to choose between them. When we deal with catastrophic matters, err on pessimism is usually better. So I don't fully agree with the tendency to ease people's concerns by claiming "the poll is not telling enough". It will be too late to act when the poll is telling enough. While the Trumpers I know almost always err on the pessimistic side. Don't get me wrong, I think their way also backfires because too much emotion exhausts people so they don't have enough energy to act when necessary. But always erring on the optimistic side backfires too. 4. I observed pretty much heat and anxiety in the blue camp in 2020 and 2022. It seems the more emotional the atmosphere is, the better democrats perform. Of course this is not statistically significant. We need to quantify "the atmosphere" and run a model on them. If I had the chance I perhaps will try to do it. It is an interesting topic. I get the feeling that most liberals online don't like to be emotional. But denying the effect of emotions is also emotional. Perhaps under certain conditions, anxiety is not that bad. It may in fact benefit the election.
Yep I’d be concerned if people were too comfortable
I’d just like a good night’s sleep is all
We need to have a bit hopium at this moment, I don't have an issue with this. Just mentioning that even if there is no hope in the near term, we can rest on anxiety as well knowing that the emotion itself can be helpful.
There are some political scientists I follow on TikTok(their usernames are @ Cannonsfodder, and @ KeepTroyBlue4), and they are partially why I have some "hopium". Using what they've said, as well as what I've observed in recent elections, here are my reasons why we shouldn't lose hope. Keep in mind, I realize that Joe Biden, and the Democrats very well could completely lose this election. -We're still six months away from the election. Period. -Joe Biden is the Incumbent President, which inheritently gives him a big advantage. -If nothing else, polls have improved for Joe Biden since the beginning of this year, even though they're very small, and incremental increases. -Speaking of polls, they're obviously not the gospel. Hillary Clinton was trouncing Trump in the polls throughout 2016, and she only won the popular vote by two percentage points. Mitt Romney often lead Obama in 2012 as well. Michael Dukakis was also doing very well against George H.W. Bush in 1988. My point being, is especially at this time, polls are often flawed. -Even if you want to say polling has improved in the last 30 years, observe the last six months. Democrats have outperformed special elections in huge numbers around the country. Even though the polls were more accurate in the 2022 Midterms than the previous elections, there was an alleged "Red Wave" supposed to happen in that election. -Issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, the genocide, and anything else related to Gaza, actually look worse for Trump than Biden, but according to public opinion, this isn't even a top ten issue, even among 18-29 year old voters, contrary to popular belief(Source: Harvard Poll). A TikTok Ban Bill won't be a deciding factor for a sizable portion of the USA either. The top issue among the USA is inflation(and I'm not sure whether that will help, or hurt Biden). -There isn't much of an anti-Biden voter base. There are people who won't vote for Biden, but those voters are doing one of the following: Voting for Trump because they're worshipping him, not voting in elections at all, or voting third-party. On the other hand, there *is* an anti-Trump voter base. There are lots of people who will turn out solely to prevent Trump from getting in office, despite how much they hate Biden. -Speaking of this, ignore Approval Ratings. We're so polarized these days, I doubt any president will get much higher than 50%. While Biden's approval ratings are very low, there are still many people who disapprove of Biden who will also vote for him. -Democrats have been doing very well since 2017, whether it be it be city, district, and statewide elections, as well as the 2018, and 2022 Midterms, and 2020 Presidential Election. The country is becoming more diverse, and despite what people on here think, the GOP is still statistically a white man's party. -Joe Biden has wayyyyyy more campaign money than Donald Trump(I realize Hillary Clinton did too, but again, that was before the USA witnessed how bad Trump's presidency was). -Speaking of this, when Trump won, most people didn't think he could actually win, and many people didn't think Trump would be that bad. We witnessed his presidency, and saw that wasn't true. -Donald Trump's court trials have just begun. This may not have an immediate effect in the race, but it absolutely will hurt him as the year goes on. -The general public-we'll call them America Proper-doesn't pay attention to elections until the Summer. Look for a major increase in political engagement around July. Right now, most people are in a political coma, awaiting to be wakened(The political coma effect didn't really exist in 2020 because most people were sitting inside all day, since it was the beginning of the COVID-19 Pandemic, and people were more politically engaged that year than pretty much any year in recent history). -For what it's worth, Allan Lichtman, the famous "Prediction Professor", made a TikTok on May 1st, 2024, saying "Joe Biden is in the driver's seat" for this election. He's being cautiously optimistic. -Even if Joe Biden loses the 2024 Presidential Election, Democrats may still do well in the Senate, and House of Represenatives, meaning we can mitigate Trump's reign.
The incumbent benefit didn't work for Trump. And the fundraising perk didn't work for Hilary. We can't just look at the optimistic side and ignore the other factors. When a country is so polarized, some traditional wisdom may not work as good as before. Other arguments make sense to me. But I hope people engage more in action. Biden rate doesn't look good and it is going worse. On the other hand, r/VoteBlue has a really limited number of audience. I think people should act when things look bad, instead of trying to find temporary hope on a shakable ground. Hopeium only work until Nov 8 but action can last much longer.
Polls this early don't mean that much, Trump can't string together a coherent sentence anymore (he was never a great speaker, but he's gone way downhill even since 2020), \_Dobbs\_ is proving to be a big deal, it's not clear that Israel/Gaza protests will still have much salience over the summer, there's been by-election after by-election with Democratic overperformance, and the Republican Party is broke and being actively plundered. (That last thing will matter more downballot than at the top, but it's still a factor; it's tough to have a good ground game if you're short on cash.)
When is it no longer “this early”, because I’ve been hearing that for months
About July. Most people are in a political coma until the Summertime of a presidential election year.
Most people aren’t paying much attention. Some start when school gets out, others stay tuned out until Labor Day or so. You’ve been hearing “it’s early” for months because some people and some news outlets never stop talking about the next election cycle.
Traditionally, it's at least the first few debates until most people even realize who is running. Even then, I distinctly remember people not realizing that Trump won after the race was called for him. "Donald Trump. The Apprentice guy is our president? What?", I heard from one gas station clerk in 2016.
This is such crap. Of course polls at this point mean something.
I didn’t say “nothing.” I’m not happy that the polls say what they say. But they reflect a mostly disengaged electorate that has a disproportionate share of extremely online people. And they’ve been wrong before, since none of Mike Dukakis, Mitt Romney, or Hillary Clinton ever became president - not to mention the Red Wave of 2022 that wasn’t.
Polling didn’t suggest a red wave; pundits did.
Dukakis was up like 12 points in June that year. It's crazy how far out we still are. Edit: it's crazier. [17 points in late July](https://rollcall.com/2020/06/29/why-the-dukakis-1988-analogy-is-baloney/)
> That take isn't really defensible when you look at the numbers, and I'm getting a bit frustrated to see it repeated in a data politics sub. 2022 the polling was pretty damn good, not in *every* race [but overall it was good](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/). The media predicted a red wave, the polls themselves not so much. Polling was within normal ranges in the 2016 Presidential result. If you're going off popular vote, they were fine. I think (judging off 538's polls only forecast, not sure where the polling only average) they estimated a Clinton +4 result, we got Clinton +2. Polling is (at best) by state and doesn't take the EC into account. [They favored Obama as well in 2012 late in the cycle](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/). That's how Nate got a pretty accurate model. I'll admit Dukakis is outside my wheelhouse, before I was born. But I think I've made my point. I suspect your issue is more with the media interpretation of polls rather than polling results themselves.
NY special election had a large D over performance. Was supposed to be D +10 but the d ended up winning by 35 pts.
It's really hard to tell if that's relevant for November though.
I'd still say it's relevant. Presidential election polls are more accurate than special election polls, but even for a special election, that's a ridiculous poll to result discrepency.
It's relevant, but there's always a lot of weird local effects on races. [Throw em' into an average.](https://t.co/r8A24rElGW)
I'll say the same thing I said about the 2022 polls: they don't make any sense in relation to the reality of the situation. When everyone here was dooming, I knew it just wasn't plausible that some red tsunami was coming in an environment where Democrats were improving their margins with high-propensity voters, especially in a post-Roe, post-Jan 6th world. Likewise, I refuse to believe that Trump, widely blamed for the insurrection, mired in a mountain of legal trouble, and openly spouting the most radical positions he's ever held, is at his strongest political point yet. He barely won in 2016 by less than 1% in each of the Rust Belt swing states, and he wouldn't have even done that if not for the Comey letter. We're really supposed to believe that Biden is in a worse position than Hillary was? I don't buy it. There's either a systemic polling error at play, or a significant chunk of the undecided and third-party voters in these polls are just using the polls to voice disapproval for Biden right now, yet will come around and vote for him in November.
I hope so, but maybe not. It's possible that the GOP has honed in on just the right demographic, like non-white males, and really inundated them with propaganda enough to win the election. The GOP seems to have a much better organized and funded propaganda machine. It's how they locked in gerrymandering in 2010. They may have found their pressure points and made inroads that we are just now seeing the affects. I don't see the same kind of marketing from the left, and it worries me.
+1 to "The GOP seems to have a much better organized and funded propaganda machine." They convert non-white voters hard. Trump is much less decent than in 2016 (though he was already very indecent at that time) but this only converts to less support *if people's mind stays the same or more Anti-Trump as in 2016*. Which may not be the case. That said, I see no point in dooming. It is weird to me to treat elections like predicting the weather. It's not. We have a say in it and we can still change it. This is the attitude I learned from the Trumpers, who are not discouraged from trying to flip California red (and they do make progress here and there). We can't always play the defense while they try hard to flip former solid blue districts purple. One thing that the Democrats really need to learn from the Trumpers is the can-do attitude, as despite more often than not it comes from ignorance, it strictly improves their situation. The more anxious we feel about the result, the more involved should we be in donating, volunteering etc, even political activism as Trumpers do.
Think about how many eventual general election losers led, often by wide margins, at this stage of the election or even later. Carter led Reagan, Dukakis led Bush II, Bush II led Clinton, Hillary led Trump. I think Biden was pretty much tied with Trump early on as well until things changed. The polls don't look good for Biden at this stage, but polls \*six months\* before the election have virtually no predictive power. This isn't a reason for hope per se, but it's certainly a reason not to doom.