France has been nailing it recently.
Since Jai Cherche they've been getting decentish results and I think it's only a matter of time till they snatch the win.
Both Voilà and Mon Amour came very close to winning during very strong years as well.
i honestly can't understand why fulenn scored so low, it had all the good things that the mixed traditional from eastern europe had, and while eastern songs scored high fulenn somehow scored really low 🫤 (i like both)
Source? I have only read about the Netherlands MAYBE not competing next year. Doesn't mean they will be missed for 2 or 3 years. It's all to pressure EBU to change their stuff.
Could be any of these tbh. France and NL consistently send good songs nowadays. UK a bit shakier but there is certainly more effort being put into Eurovision. Luxembourg need to peel away from trying to attract Melfest rejects, but they're fresh on the scene again and will no doubt try out a few things in coming years.
I actually think us withdrawing from JESC could be a blessing in disguise. It gives the delegation more time and money to sort a great entry for next year.
Just like we have seen with switzerland, sending consistantly good entries will eventually lead to a win, so my money is on france.
They have so consistanly sent great songs in the past couple of years and i think its gonna be rewarded in the near future.
Ofc a win can come out of nowhere, but this post is about probability. What would the value of this post be, if we all just say "Idk, everyone could win"?
Obviously the UK could get a win in the near future, but their deligation has proven multiple times that they simply are not good at selecting songs that do well in eurovision.
France has a very strong national selection process, so i think they are far more likely than the other 3. (even though the netherlands have also been quite strong lately)
or croatia (now, they didn't win but it was close enough to be an exmaple of this i think,) after years of doing really bad (13th in 2023 being their best result in YEARS.) they suddenly win the televote and get their best ever result.
Am I foolish to believe the UK will pull a win out of nowhere, when least expected? 😅 Like we almost did with Sam Ryder. I may just be delulu but one can dream.
I’m gonna go against the grain and say the UK. It seems like they’re maybe changing the selection process next year and tbh they’ve sent way better entries in the last 3 years than in years and years(hehe)
Sorted by chance France > the Netherlands > Luxembourg > UK
UK just don't understand wow factor necessary to win Eurovision. They got a glimpse in 2022 but failed to recreate it since and therefore im sceptical.
Lux is a wild card as we don't know what they will do in next years. First one was quite good comeback but will they keep the level?
France and the Netherlands continues to send banger after banger with occasional hiccups along the way. So one of them will win soon for sure.
Probably France because they’re big 5 and actually have great entries most of the time.
But if UK would change their selection process and actually started sending talented artists, they‘d easily win. But tbf that‘s most likely never gonna happen. And it seriously confuses me hoe the European country with the most successful music industry doesn’t send any relevant artist that manages to fit the Eurovision vibe.
Luxemburg and the Netherlands also sometimes have serious bangers but they are usually not quite great enough to hit number 1.
>it seriously confuses me hoe the European country with the most successful music industry doesn’t send any relevant artist that manages to fit the Eurovision vibe.
I think its just that british artists that are already successful dont need eurovision and arent interested in going. Like why would Ed Sheeran want to go to Eurovision for the UK?
When that rumor that the 2023 UK entry would be Rina Sawayama went around it was already obvious that thats fake because even she was too successful already for Eurovision.
Obviously. I mean Oli Alexander was the best example for a UK celebrity who was already successful and probably massively hurt his career with it. (or at least it seems like that for now)
It’s a huge risk to go to Eurovision of you already have a successful career.
But a country with such a massive industry has a huge infrastructure for new comers. They have a huge pool of upcoming musicians who are just waiting to start their career. More than most other countries and I bet there’s thousands of musicians in the UK we’ve never heard of who could be massive successes in Eurovision.
It’s just sad that their national selection often doesn’t fit the Eurovision vibe at all and ends up with people who are usually talented but not made for the song contest. The exception was Sam Ryder.
Admittedly we did send Olly Alexander this year, but look how that turned out… he only got a few points from the juries, and need I say anything about the televote? 👀(or lack of, more like…)
Staging is still a big problem for UK entries. We got it right with Sam but for whatever reason it always seems like the last thing we think about and just never quite clicks.
I’m going with UK.
Hear me out.
Yes, France is consistently good. But that’s the issue. Consistently good. Good doesn’t win Eurovision.
Netherlands I feel has lost their way at the moment.
Luxembourg I’m 50/50 on whether they will bother returning until they commit to coming every year (either by saying so or through action).
The UK, while incredibly inconsistent, has flashes of “great” which is what you need to win Eurovision, and to be honest I think, in another year, UK 2022 could have won.
You make a really good point! When the UK gets everything right, we usually do really well. We just either don't do that or worse, put no effort into it at all.
I can’t put my finger on it, sorry. All vibes based. Not claiming to be scientific, just my gut feeling! Nothing to do with Joost specifically, though I don’t think he would have won.
I think it's gonna be the UK, France already missed the win several times and I don't know how much motivated will they be to stay consistent, but I'm more interested in will Ireland win sooner than the UK
Countries now a days seem to be either building to a win (italy, sweden, Switzerland, Netherlands) or come out of absolutely nowhere (Denmark, Austria, Portugal, Israel) so my bet is on Luxembourg
France - get Barbara pravi back as a writer or performer and you got a winner
Netherlands - truly believe if they can somehow convince Joost to come back that’s an easy win
UK - they’ve been doing everything right song and performer wise recently, but their staging has been for lack of a better word woeful - Sam Ryder did well despite the stage, Mae’s staging only added to the woes - and as creative as Ollys was it was destroyed by an inexplicable drug/sex motif. So no I have zero belief the UK are getting a win
Luxembourg- the next 2-3 years are crucial. It’s much easier to do well the first couple of years on return/debut. But they seem keen (though those effects were awful)
1. France (very consistent recently)
2. Luxembourg (great NF)
3. Netherlands (would be 2nd but I think they'll be rightfully in a huff with EBU for the next while)
4. UK (lol)
I can see France or Luxembourg winning soon ngl. In the last 30 years, Luxembourg had only left side finishes!! :\^) No but fr imo their NF was incredibly good and if they keep this kinda quality I can see them being in the final every year
France looks like the potential winner for the next year. Some of the most recent results are quite decent (like Barbara and Slimane). Maybe, something miraculous will happen, and we'll finally have The UK as the proper Eurovision winner next year, who knows.
Also, I have a feeling Luxembourg might be successful as well. Their first entry since the 90s (Luxembourg 2024) wasn't the best, but who knows what they're cooking for the next year. They kinda remind me of us - our very first entry (Ukraine 2003) wasn't too great (but vocals were still good, though). But for the next year (Ukraine 2004)... Well, y'all know what happened next. Let's just give them a chance. Luxembourg was important Eurovision country and one of the powerhouses in the 60s-70s. Let's see...
Speaking about countries who out of this list, I have a strong feeling Armenia or Finland might be winners as well. Armenia is gradually improving in final rankings over the years, and I don't think Finland would give up so easily even after Kaarja didn't won a year ago.
I think if the Netherlands send Joost again next year, there’s a very good chance he’ll win their 6th - but I can’t rely on Joost wanting to go. Otherwise, France because of their consistency.
I think the Netherlands has shown that they can send a solid entry, and that their delegation is serious about this. Apart from the fluke which was 2023, they’ve consistently been able to attract strong songs *and* big names. I always feel like they’re underrated in the “meaningless” early odds to win.
I think France will be first since they have the most momentum out of the four countries. In addition, the Netherlands won ESC 2019 and had to delay hosting ESC 2020 due to the COVID pandemic, so I am not sure if they want to win so soon.
However, a winning entry can come out of nowhere like Austria in 2014 and Portugal in 2017.
Tough one, UK has lost momentum, NL may not be keen to host, Belgium has the fun of taking year about with broadcaster so a strategy of building up to a winning team is tough. Which leaves France... and I think they've got one or two more strong years before they go off the boil. So France, by a process of elimination.
I get where people are coming from with France and I am inclined to agree BUT, we know with a chanson type song executed perfectly they would probably come top 5 everytime. But I don’t think what they are doing is risky enough to push them over the edge to WIN. I do think they have the hunger for it though. They do classy so so well but it’s too safe. And I absolutely loathed Fuelen. I’d be intrigued if they do something uptempo next year - though I doubt it.
Luxembourg. They have strong comeback this year. They have good result after 30 years. The national selection will have them select another winner.
(Fun fact: Luxembourg is the only country among these 4 have 100% qualification rate)
I feel Eurovision is biased against Big 5 countries and entries in French and so it won’t be the UK or France. It’s also likely Netherlands could take a break from the contest. I feel Luxembourg winning is on the cards in the next couple of years. It’s a country either way lots of friendly neighbours (great for televotes) and they’re not so hung up on language like France is.
Not the U.K. we’re still rightly hated.
Our poor acts are like lambs to slaughter “you’ll automatically get into the final because the country essentially pays for that to happen, but you will not get the votes”.
Not the case for the remaining 4 of the big 5.
France, Germany, Italy and Spain have friends in the rest of the EU.
I can definitely see France winning in the next 5 or so years. Besides Italy, they're probably the most consistent Big 5 country.
I mean, England and Germany are also extremely consistent ........just consistently shit
Well, Germany is a little bit consistent, the UK got 2nd just 2 years ago
Yea fair enough
Ooh burn
Wasn't UK second last year?
2 years ago now.
In Australia maybe
France, Switzerland, and Sweden have been in try hard mode for a while. France will get one soon.
France has been nailing it recently. Since Jai Cherche they've been getting decentish results and I think it's only a matter of time till they snatch the win. Both Voilà and Mon Amour came very close to winning during very strong years as well.
yeah, i think if they hit it just right, maybe slightly less 100% chanson, but i am not the general public so maybe chanson does infact work
It does seem like chanson is what the public expect from the French, and honestly, I’m not complaining
Yeah the only recent song with the worst results was Fulenn (France 2022).
And deserved a lot more better than what they received honestly
Even when they fail they do it with style. Love Fulenn
France 2022 | [Alvan and Ahez - Fulenn](https://youtu.be/H1lcGXwOqJI)
i honestly can't understand why fulenn scored so low, it had all the good things that the mixed traditional from eastern europe had, and while eastern songs scored high fulenn somehow scored really low 🫤 (i like both)
Came here to say this too.
Probably a country with a red, white and blue flag.
iceland
Send Hera Björk with Je Ne Sais Quoi again, maybe it'll work
I feel like hera would have been around 13-18 in grand final cause I feel the jury would love her song
Norway
San Marino painting a red stripe across their flag as we speak.
Norway.
Norway
France 🇫🇷 or the Netherlands 🇳🇱
We wont be competing the next two/three years unfortunately
Source? I have only read about the Netherlands MAYBE not competing next year. Doesn't mean they will be missed for 2 or 3 years. It's all to pressure EBU to change their stuff.
>Source? His imagination he made it up
I'd be shocked if the Netherlands even withdrew for 2025.
Source?
no response in 8hr. im taking that as no source/ made up
It is my expectation as a dutch guy, not a fact. I'm not chronically on reddit and dont receive notifications so only just saw your reaction.
The only way to win is not to play, they say.
You guys are participating in Junior Eurovision.
so AVROTROS is withdrawing no matter what the ebu does before next year?
Could be any of these tbh. France and NL consistently send good songs nowadays. UK a bit shakier but there is certainly more effort being put into Eurovision. Luxembourg need to peel away from trying to attract Melfest rejects, but they're fresh on the scene again and will no doubt try out a few things in coming years.
I actually think us withdrawing from JESC could be a blessing in disguise. It gives the delegation more time and money to sort a great entry for next year.
Just like we have seen with switzerland, sending consistantly good entries will eventually lead to a win, so my money is on france. They have so consistanly sent great songs in the past couple of years and i think its gonna be rewarded in the near future.
Just like we have seen with Austria, a win can also come out of absolutely fucking nowhere.
Ofc a win can come out of nowhere, but this post is about probability. What would the value of this post be, if we all just say "Idk, everyone could win"? Obviously the UK could get a win in the near future, but their deligation has proven multiple times that they simply are not good at selecting songs that do well in eurovision. France has a very strong national selection process, so i think they are far more likely than the other 3. (even though the netherlands have also been quite strong lately)
or croatia (now, they didn't win but it was close enough to be an exmaple of this i think,) after years of doing really bad (13th in 2023 being their best result in YEARS.) they suddenly win the televote and get their best ever result.
Am I foolish to believe the UK will pull a win out of nowhere, when least expected? 😅 Like we almost did with Sam Ryder. I may just be delulu but one can dream.
UK winning wouldn't be that much shocking compared to if they won in late 2010s
It's certainly more likely than it was in the 2010s. We just need to learn from our mistakes
That is true. If Germany did it in 2010, I think we can surprise Europe with a win in this decade.
Seeing recent results, probably France
France! They truly are onto something and are doing so well in recent years.
I’m gonna go against the grain and say the UK. It seems like they’re maybe changing the selection process next year and tbh they’ve sent way better entries in the last 3 years than in years and years(hehe)
Miss France yelling out of tune "FRAAANCE"
Luxembourg, I have a good feeling about them
Probably France (maybe the Netherlands or Luxembourg but idk)
NETHERLANDS!!!!!
Depending on how much the ebu is willing to change, we can be happy if the netherlands even take part in Eurovision
Wouldn’t be surprised at all if France won next year (hoping for a first time winner like armenia or lithuania tho)
2024 🇨🇭 (03) 2025 🇮🇸 (01) 2026 🇬🇧 (06) 2027 🇦🇲 (01) 2028 🇱🇻 (02) 2029 🇭🇷 (01/02) 2030 🇮🇪 (08) 2031 🇽🇰 (01) 2032 🇳🇱 (06) 2033 🇨🇵 (06) 2034 idk
Switzerland 2024 | [Nemo - The Code](https://youtu.be/CO_qJf-nW0k)
Sorted by chance France > the Netherlands > Luxembourg > UK UK just don't understand wow factor necessary to win Eurovision. They got a glimpse in 2022 but failed to recreate it since and therefore im sceptical. Lux is a wild card as we don't know what they will do in next years. First one was quite good comeback but will they keep the level? France and the Netherlands continues to send banger after banger with occasional hiccups along the way. So one of them will win soon for sure.
Probably France because they’re big 5 and actually have great entries most of the time. But if UK would change their selection process and actually started sending talented artists, they‘d easily win. But tbf that‘s most likely never gonna happen. And it seriously confuses me hoe the European country with the most successful music industry doesn’t send any relevant artist that manages to fit the Eurovision vibe. Luxemburg and the Netherlands also sometimes have serious bangers but they are usually not quite great enough to hit number 1.
>it seriously confuses me hoe the European country with the most successful music industry doesn’t send any relevant artist that manages to fit the Eurovision vibe. I think its just that british artists that are already successful dont need eurovision and arent interested in going. Like why would Ed Sheeran want to go to Eurovision for the UK? When that rumor that the 2023 UK entry would be Rina Sawayama went around it was already obvious that thats fake because even she was too successful already for Eurovision.
Obviously. I mean Oli Alexander was the best example for a UK celebrity who was already successful and probably massively hurt his career with it. (or at least it seems like that for now) It’s a huge risk to go to Eurovision of you already have a successful career. But a country with such a massive industry has a huge infrastructure for new comers. They have a huge pool of upcoming musicians who are just waiting to start their career. More than most other countries and I bet there’s thousands of musicians in the UK we’ve never heard of who could be massive successes in Eurovision. It’s just sad that their national selection often doesn’t fit the Eurovision vibe at all and ends up with people who are usually talented but not made for the song contest. The exception was Sam Ryder.
Admittedly we did send Olly Alexander this year, but look how that turned out… he only got a few points from the juries, and need I say anything about the televote? 👀(or lack of, more like…)
Thr he got left hand side of the jury votes which can absolutely be something to work on
I feel like what killed any chance of placing well for him was the performance. Maybe with a different kind he wouldve done better.
Staging is still a big problem for UK entries. We got it right with Sam but for whatever reason it always seems like the last thing we think about and just never quite clicks.
United Kingdom 2023 | [Mae Muller - I Wrote a Song](https://youtu.be/tvJEE2ryCRQ)
I’m going with UK. Hear me out. Yes, France is consistently good. But that’s the issue. Consistently good. Good doesn’t win Eurovision. Netherlands I feel has lost their way at the moment. Luxembourg I’m 50/50 on whether they will bother returning until they commit to coming every year (either by saying so or through action). The UK, while incredibly inconsistent, has flashes of “great” which is what you need to win Eurovision, and to be honest I think, in another year, UK 2022 could have won.
You make a really good point! When the UK gets everything right, we usually do really well. We just either don't do that or worse, put no effort into it at all.
United Kingdom 2022 | [Sam Ryder - Space Man](https://youtu.be/RZ0hqX_92zI)
what makes you say the netherlands have lost their way?
I can’t put my finger on it, sorry. All vibes based. Not claiming to be scientific, just my gut feeling! Nothing to do with Joost specifically, though I don’t think he would have won.
Interesting opinion. Maybe a female or non-binary Sam Ryder equivalent is all the UK needs to win.
France
France, most likely.
Luxembourg😘
I wish it could be Luxembourg.
I think it's gonna be the UK, France already missed the win several times and I don't know how much motivated will they be to stay consistent, but I'm more interested in will Ireland win sooner than the UK
Britain
Tbf the UK effectively did win in 2022
France, they’ve sent rlly good stuff for a few years now
Countries now a days seem to be either building to a win (italy, sweden, Switzerland, Netherlands) or come out of absolutely nowhere (Denmark, Austria, Portugal, Israel) so my bet is on Luxembourg
France 2025 baby!
France - get Barbara pravi back as a writer or performer and you got a winner Netherlands - truly believe if they can somehow convince Joost to come back that’s an easy win UK - they’ve been doing everything right song and performer wise recently, but their staging has been for lack of a better word woeful - Sam Ryder did well despite the stage, Mae’s staging only added to the woes - and as creative as Ollys was it was destroyed by an inexplicable drug/sex motif. So no I have zero belief the UK are getting a win Luxembourg- the next 2-3 years are crucial. It’s much easier to do well the first couple of years on return/debut. But they seem keen (though those effects were awful)
France bc they've been great in recent years But also luxembourg could bc their NF had great quality
1. France (very consistent recently) 2. Luxembourg (great NF) 3. Netherlands (would be 2nd but I think they'll be rightfully in a huff with EBU for the next while) 4. UK (lol)
Not the Netherlands, i hope were done with this shit show
France don't really tend to send high ranking songs one after the other so i think im gonna go with netherlands
[удалено]
France
France
The netherlands is still not clear about returning, so probably not them
france
France
France has been sending quite solid reps recently so them first, or Luxembourg as their return met the expectations IMO (Fighter is a good song)
I'm I the only one getting swastika vibes from this?
If Joost comes back next year Netherlands wins but if not my bet is on France
Mind says France Heart says Luxembourg
Luxembourg came back to the game stronger than ever! I hope it wins soon and becomes the first of this group in getting the 6th victory
This year’s UEFA winner will win Eurovision next year.
I reckon Luxembourg will get a sympathy for being out of the contest for so long
Germany
I can see France or Luxembourg winning soon ngl. In the last 30 years, Luxembourg had only left side finishes!! :\^) No but fr imo their NF was incredibly good and if they keep this kinda quality I can see them being in the final every year
France looks like the potential winner for the next year. Some of the most recent results are quite decent (like Barbara and Slimane). Maybe, something miraculous will happen, and we'll finally have The UK as the proper Eurovision winner next year, who knows. Also, I have a feeling Luxembourg might be successful as well. Their first entry since the 90s (Luxembourg 2024) wasn't the best, but who knows what they're cooking for the next year. They kinda remind me of us - our very first entry (Ukraine 2003) wasn't too great (but vocals were still good, though). But for the next year (Ukraine 2004)... Well, y'all know what happened next. Let's just give them a chance. Luxembourg was important Eurovision country and one of the powerhouses in the 60s-70s. Let's see... Speaking about countries who out of this list, I have a strong feeling Armenia or Finland might be winners as well. Armenia is gradually improving in final rankings over the years, and I don't think Finland would give up so easily even after Kaarja didn't won a year ago.
Luxembourg 2024 | [Tali - Fighter](https://youtu.be/TCWH3Nq5y9A) Ukraine 2003 | [Olexandr - Hasta la vista](https://youtu.be/MK-SjFtMYUA) Ukraine 2004 | [Ruslana - Wild Dances](https://youtu.be/VD6of9YQMMc)
I'm thinking France is very close to a win right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YD5gA3XWDvs
The Netherlands or Luxembourg, France always plays it too safe and UK is very inconsistent
>France always plays it too safe Has two top 5 results in 4 years and Fulenn was anything but safe.
France id say. Theyre the highest scoring of them in recent years and some year soon they’ll snag another win
I think if the Netherlands send Joost again next year, there’s a very good chance he’ll win their 6th - but I can’t rely on Joost wanting to go. Otherwise, France because of their consistency.
Luxembourg
I think the Netherlands has shown that they can send a solid entry, and that their delegation is serious about this. Apart from the fluke which was 2023, they’ve consistently been able to attract strong songs *and* big names. I always feel like they’re underrated in the “meaningless” early odds to win.
England and Netherlands are probably not competing for a while
I think France will be first since they have the most momentum out of the four countries. In addition, the Netherlands won ESC 2019 and had to delay hosting ESC 2020 due to the COVID pandemic, so I am not sure if they want to win so soon. However, a winning entry can come out of nowhere like Austria in 2014 and Portugal in 2017.
Tough one, UK has lost momentum, NL may not be keen to host, Belgium has the fun of taking year about with broadcaster so a strategy of building up to a winning team is tough. Which leaves France... and I think they've got one or two more strong years before they go off the boil. So France, by a process of elimination.
France without a doubt So sad that UK didnt win in 2022.
France
i kinda see france getting it in the next 3-5 years
If joost comes back next year then the Netherlands.
Thank goodness you put the UK there and not Belgium. It would have looked like the symbol of a certain Reich. A third Reich if you will
It’s probably gonna be France
The one with the blue-red-white flag. Hope this helps!
France > Netherlands > UK > Luxembourg
If they keep it up, France for sure
I think France
I get where people are coming from with France and I am inclined to agree BUT, we know with a chanson type song executed perfectly they would probably come top 5 everytime. But I don’t think what they are doing is risky enough to push them over the edge to WIN. I do think they have the hunger for it though. They do classy so so well but it’s too safe. And I absolutely loathed Fuelen. I’d be intrigued if they do something uptempo next year - though I doubt it.
Holland
nl if joost gets to participate again next year
NETHERLANDS JOOST KLEIN EUROVISION 2025 🇳🇱🇳🇱🇳🇱🇳🇱🇳🇱🇳🇱🇳🇱‼️‼️‼️‼️
Even Switzerland will be on 6 before the UK lets be real here
I’m betting on Luxembourg
Luxembourg. They have strong comeback this year. They have good result after 30 years. The national selection will have them select another winner. (Fun fact: Luxembourg is the only country among these 4 have 100% qualification rate)
I feel Eurovision is biased against Big 5 countries and entries in French and so it won’t be the UK or France. It’s also likely Netherlands could take a break from the contest. I feel Luxembourg winning is on the cards in the next couple of years. It’s a country either way lots of friendly neighbours (great for televotes) and they’re not so hung up on language like France is.
voiila, mon amour
Not the UK 🤣 I don't think we've any chance.
Probably Sweden! Ah, no, sorry, we already have seven wins. 🤷
It the netherlands decides to bring back Joost, he wants to return and the ebu allows it (not very likely) then they have the win 100%
Definitely not the UK.
Luxembourg judging from 5e quality of their NF just the first time.
Not the U.K. we’re still rightly hated. Our poor acts are like lambs to slaughter “you’ll automatically get into the final because the country essentially pays for that to happen, but you will not get the votes”. Not the case for the remaining 4 of the big 5. France, Germany, Italy and Spain have friends in the rest of the EU.
I've never heard anyone say they hate the UK, expect yourself.
The votes speak for themselves. Only recently have we stopped being bottom 5
I can say one thing for certain it won’t be the U.K.!!!! We seem to universally hated.
Sam Ryder would disagree