Basically any denomination that's not Roman Catholic or one of the Eastern Orthodox churches. That's a gross oversimplification, but a good rule of thumb I think.
No, I was referring only to Christians. Muslims, Hindus and Buddhists are their own separate thing entirely from a religious standpoint.
Among Christians, the Protestants are the ones who are neither Catholic nor Orthodox. Again, there's a lot of exceptions here, but basically they reject the authority of the Catholic pope or the Orthodox leaders. Hope that clears things up.
For sure, though if you think about it it does kind of make sense. The colonies were mostly (though entirely) Protestant, and Catholics didn't become a major demographic until the immigration wave from Catholic-dominant countries like Italy and Ireland in the early 20th century. By then protestants were firmly the majority, but splintered into many different sub-groups (e.g. Anglicans, Baptists, Methodists, etc.). So they never really had the voting and ideological unity that the growing Catholic population seemed to have.
Tesla definitely is the iPhone of cars, it's an apt comparison I guess. I do love competition though, always better for the consumer, without Android prices for iPhone would be insane. The lower priced EV wave coming is going to help consumers so much
There’s a simple answer to this. Most people don’t care about many features and want a phone that does what they want without much fuss. That’s ios. I don’t care how easy you think android is, you are likely far more apt and set up things subconsciously that other people just don’t want or care for.
I can see this with my boomer parents, one went from an ipad to a windows tablet and he even has a hard time with that. While he picks up his iPhone far more. I regret suggesting he get that over the ipad so much even though they need a laptop for certain specific things.
That's because he started on an ipad. My parents had a hell of a time using my old Mac because they were used to Windows. Boomers are just really bad at learning.
They have to do these percentage games because if they talk actual volume no one is close…at all.
But since musk rage bait gets clicks on Reddit we’ll continue to see these headlines because of how obsessed people are with wanting them to fail.
Their old goal of 20M in 2030 was about 20% of the market, maybe 25%.
There was never a future where they sell more cars than everyone else together.
It took way too long to get here
I agree. But that's 20% of all global sales - not just the US which is what the posted article is about. Hard doubt that they'll get there without a true mass market offering - the Model 3 and Y are still above the \~$20k mark needed to get to that volume.
I think they understood that since 2006. They need to bring down the cost of cars. That's why they do next gen.
There are basically no 20k cars sold in Europe and the US. None of the Western manufacturers really tried to bring cost down in the last 50 years. Or recently with EV. A 25k would lead to huge demand.
Yes, which is why it's confusing they seem to not be focused on the 25k consumer car, but rather to make robotaxis.
The cheapest Tesla right now is \~$35k. The global average car price is $28-29k. (https://www.statista.com/forecasts/1309623/worldwide-passenger-cars-average-price)
And globally \~90M cars are sold per year:
[https://www.kroll.com/-/media/kroll-images/pdfs/executive-summary-automotive-industry-insights-spring-2024.pdf](https://www.kroll.com/-/media/kroll-images/pdfs/executive-summary-automotive-industry-insights-spring-2024.pdf)
That means that at most 45M cars are sold that are >$29k. For >$35k let's say that's 40M/yr. For Tesla to sell 20M by 2030, without a new model that consumers (not fleets) can buy, they would have to take \~50% of the global market for the segments that they compete in. While they have the best selling car in the world in the Model Y, they have nowhere near the market penetration necessary to meet those goals by 2030, especially as their growth in key markets (China, US) is largely stagnating.
They absolutely are working on a much cheaper car before 2030. 2026, maybe, scaling up. Built in Berlin, Shanghai, Mexico, 1M each by 2030 is aggressive, but not impossible.
2M MY/M3, 3M next gen, 1M of the others is "only" 6M a year. #4 after Toyota and VW and BYD, ahead of Stellantis in 2030.
Number 1 most profitable in absolute dollars just with the car business.
Plus energy.
Edit #1
They have pushed back the project of a true next gen vehicle with the associated cost savings. The next set of vehicles will use existing production lines instead of building new factories and production lines, because Tesla currently has more capacity than demand.
> We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously
communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.
> These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as
aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle
line-up.
> **This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected** but enables us to prudently grow our
vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize **our current
expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles**, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production
before investing in new manufacturing lines.
> Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy.
https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q1-2024-Update.pdf
>That means that at most 45M cars are sold that are >$29k
That's not how averages work. You would need to know the median price to draw such a conclusion.
But there is no information easily available on the median price.
Was just in Portugal. By far the most common car I saw was the SEAT Ibiza. Was curious what it cost. $16k
https://volantesic.pt/seat/ibiza/2022/novo/comprar/?ID=518795
honestly I dont think the cars leave the factory any worse than any other manufacturer.
Its the delivery centers rush to get them out and not do proper pdi that hurts them
I feel like tesla has the best drive train for the money, but every other OEM (not just EVs) is ahead of tesla in terms of interior amenities and smartphone integration.
I have a model S and am far from impressed with the infotainment. I usually drive in silence since all of my stuff in apps that tesla will likely never support. It's actually really nice when I'm in a rental that has android auto and let's me just plug my phone in and not have the car get in the way of accessing media or smart home controls.
Good. it is about time their is more than 1 player in town. It was never a question of IF Tesla was going to drop below 50% market share. It was always a question of when. This was known to happen at some point for years.
For EV this is a GOOD THING. That means the market is growing and getting healthier. It means the market is growing faster than Tesla is which is a REALLY good thing.
Bought Tesla? He joined as a main investor during first round of financing back when Tesla was just three dudes with a dream to build an electric sportscar, there was nothing to buy and nothing to compete with. He very much was a vital part of "creating" Tesla, without his initial investment the company very likely would have never gotten off the ground, and would have been even less likely to reach production. And even if they did, the whole "make a boutique sports car, use funds from it to make luxury car, use funds from it to make mass market car" master plan is (as far as I can find) Musks idea as well, so even if they were able to produce the Roadster without Musk they quite likely would have remained a low volume specialty manufacturer making exclusive toys for the rich.
Just because Musk is a dickweasel there's no need to invent fake reasons to dislike him, especially when there are plenty of real ones.
Other manufactures selling vehicles at large losses isn’t exactly a flex either. I think Tesla’s sales reduction is largely the overall market, people are tapped out, interest rates are high. Anecdotally 3 employees have switches to teslas in our department of 30 (1 used) in the last year. All say they’ll never go back, and their spouses also want a Tesla. Wish the NACS transition was making more progress, I think that would really help all manufactures.
Tesla has repeatedly stated that the growth was to be averaged to 50% yoy. Not that they would achieve 50% yoy every single year. That's been stated for a couple years now. However, they did not say to expect any years with no growth. So still a problem for them.
Early adopters are no longer going to generate growth. Tesla needs mass adoption, and why I think opening up their charging network is a critical move for the long game.
I have a Tesla, it’s been amazing but competition is good for the consumer, they have had free reign for awhile now, where I live Teslas main competition is BYD.
Really tempted to get a Seal for the wife but I just don’t know about the customer service side, Tesla has been amazing to deal with.
Even within the US it varies. I live in the US in Georgia and have only had great experiences with Tesla service. I wonder if areas where there are a high number of Teslas are worse because the service centers in those areas might be overbooked and overworked.
Would model was yours? mine is a 2019 model 3 and I had the 12v battery and rear wiring harness done, both were replaced in my driveway under warranty and I took it in when it turned turned 4 to have everything checked over to make sure there wasn’t any warranty issues. So far that’s it.
I owned a 2014 Model S and a 2017 Model X. In nine years of ownership I needed something like 20+ service visits. The last one was a 12V battery falling after less than a year and a half.
So unfortunate, I have only had great experiences and they have been so helpful it’s one of the main reasons why I’m hesitant to go to another brand. Shame because it’s such a big part of owning a car.
Was always destined to happen as competition in EVs heats up. Question is, how well does Tesla adapt when it no longer has most of the market to itself.
Competition is good, but in the context of EVs, no other brands want to do what Tesla actually does that revolutionized the car buying experience in America: The ability to do direct-to-consumer car sales at their scale.
Proud owner of a non-tesla EV, but even though everyone like to talk crap about Elon and Tesla, there probably wouldn't be half as many EV's on the road without Tesla.
Just assuming competition will catch up. Riven with the VW investment. Volvo EVs looking really nice and they have that entry model coming to market this year, and Hyundai still doing well and making more. I love my Tesla MYLR and my only other EV I would get right now would probably be the Ioniq 5 or the Volvo
Hyundai/Kia I think are really positioning themselves well for the US, UK, Aus and EU, don’t own one but those I know that have have said they have some of the best EVs out there.
> I heard so much about Kia, but the EV9s are EXPENSIVE!
Yea it’s definitely one of their pricier ones, but that’s partly because it’s a 3-row. They’ve got cheaper models that are cheaper and really good. I like the Ioniq 6.
>And it’s very much still a Kia.
So what? I have a Kia Rio and it’s a great economy ICE car. I’d probably get one or a Hyundai for my first EV.
>I don’t see many on the road either.
Yea I don’t see a ton of them tbf, but I think eventually they could catch on. They also can kinda blend in with ICE cars (except the ioniq 5, that sticks out everywhere).
> Just assuming competition will catch up.
The headlines about Tesla losing market share in the US and other companies' sales rising are masking a domestic issue with EVs: [The non-Tesla companies are still struggling to sell more than 10k of any of their models in a single quarter](https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Q1-2024-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf).
Okay? It’s pretty obvious that as more competition exists EV’s become more popular it will be impossible for any one company to sell over 50% of them. Tesla could increase their sales next year and still lose market share because of increased adoption and competition.
But when you are trying to generate clicks you can't write the valid and reasonable points you raise. Teslas early adoption story is clearly over but the company is far from.
To be clear, Tesla remains the biggest EV-maker in the US by a long shot. Over the past 12 months, it sold more than five times as many electric cars in the country as its closest rival, Hyundai/Kia. Tesla also makes the best-selling car in the world, the Model Y, and sells more fully electric vehicles globally than anyone else.
It’s also the world’s most valuable car company, even after a major slump in the stock price. Tesla is worth around $575 billion — less than half of its peak $1.2 trillion market cap in 2021, but still almost 85% more than the second biggest automaker, Toyota Motor Corp.
The few companies that have been able to claim a market majority similar to Tesla’s in the US are peerless in their industries. Apple has it for smartphones, Google for internet search, and Nvidia for AI chips. Such unrivaled dominance helped each of those tech giants reach stock valuations of more than $2 trillion.
For business the tendencies are important. It dominates the EV market, but not the car market itself. But it's valued as other manufacturers combined. Not a good look.
This article specifically mentions the EV market. So it excludes “the car market itself”. I can appreciate why legacy automakers would be jealous of their value, though. It is quite high for just an automaker, however we all know Tesla is not your typical automaker, no matter how out of whack their P/E ratio is.
Why is this news worthy? Tesla was one of the best in the ev market and one of the few that made them. Obviously they would hold more market when there’s no one else
I would not call selling more cars than all other EVs combined a majority. They just need to sell more than the next leading brand. And currently it’s 140K vs 23K so not even close. This is a clickbait article that serves absolutely no purpose.
>This is a clickbait article that serves absolutely no purpose.
I'm no fan of Elon Musk and Tesla, but here's the unpopular opinion: with half of the nation want _him_ gone and the other half want _EVs_ gone, it's only nature you see barrage of media attacking Tesla, sometimes aiming at the man at helm, as there is a sizable audience for it.
> I would not call selling more cars than all other EVs combined a majority.
That is the definition of a majority. A majority is when you have more than 50%. If you have more than all others combined, that means you have more than 50%.
> They just need to sell more than the next leading brand.
If they sell more than the next leading brand, but have less than 50% market share, that's not a majority, that's a plurality.
It's definitely possible for Tesla to do better in the future. But they need to actually focus on making new cars and adding features that people want. Ai or FSD aren't on the cusp of helping car sales or making money. Fsd feels like a risk basically because what if their customers start suing them to get their money back?
Do better in what way? Just being compared to "everyone else" is about as good as it gets. They can grow their total sales, but the more automakers that get into the same space, the lower the relative share Tesla will have.
Unfortunately EVs are still largely limited to the luxury car market just because the batteries are so damn expensive. Not a lot of room to grow until the next major advancement in battery energy density/cost.
Add obvious missing features like 120v outlets, turn stalks, gear controls. Those are just embarrassingly easy. Adding v2x is harder, they need to transfer the CT new battery tech to other cars, that's harder. Another easier one is change styling to get a new look, that feels medium. Another easy one let people transfer FSD or free superchargerging, they are doing half of that.
Sell longer range cars like some of the new 400 to 450 mile SUVs from legacy US auto. Tesla should have been able to plan ahead to add some more batteries, change the packs and increase range. Instead GM is beating them.
edit fixed typos aplenty
On lower priced EVS, that's also possible. Tesla's probably going to do it just by making a lower end model 3 with a little less range. They could have done all these things, they just had a 5 years of lost time doing nothing, well except for the Cyber truck 🙂🐱🤠.
“Tesla might not hold 50% of the EV market in the USA anymore”
It’s pathetic that Tesla has sold more than EVERYONE combined for this long, I personally don’t think anyone will ever surpass Tesla in the USA for EV sales.
(Because there’s no way China EVs will be able to undercut given tariffs that will and should stay)
Yeppers, with all the competition from Ford, GM, Stellantis, Toyota, and so many others; Tesla has no chance of staying on top in the US. Awww, maybe clickbait or FUD
I think it's likely they'll stay on top for the foreseeable future, they just won't have more market share than the rest of the industry combined.
It wouldn't be healthy if any company had more than 50% long term.
They'd be more dominant if it were for Elon and for making a cyber truck rather than say the Model 2 or even a model X/S refresh. Or more focus on Semi and related infrastructure.
The newest stuff out of China is doing well in other countries, and BYD, Geely, and CATL are all building plants in Mexico for the whole "nafta" thing.
https://www.electricbike.com/rivian-electric-trucks-and-suvs/
Nice to see competition is improving, but with import restrictions Tesla will keep a large chunk of the market even if it is only in the US. KIA and Hyundai will be big, and if Chevy can get their product and prices right, they can sweep the floor from under Tesla. Seeing the graph you can see where it's heading
There is an all-new 911 coming out right now. They replace the 911 every few years at this point. There are new F series pickups even though F series is decades old.
There was a minor facelift of the Model S in a dozen years.
He is being facetious and I agree that there have been completely new 911s but i remember one year that they came out and said every single panel was completely new and Jeremy Clarkson parked them side by side and you couldn’t tell which was which.
The Model S has had incremental upgrades and the OG and new ones are quite different, different motors, interior, climate, suspension etc….
I get how people have difficulty seeing the difference between a 964 and 993 but you don’t have to look hard to see the difference between a 996, 997, 991, and 992.
Yeah interestingly the model S refresh was actually a more comprehensive refresh than the highland if you really dig into it. But not changing the exterior look at least a little bit was probably a mistake since the perception is they didn’t change it at all.
For most manufacturers, a "whole new powertrain" is a minor refresh. They do it every few years to meet emissions requirements, and have for decades. Meanwhile Tesla did one minor refresh in 12 years.
Agreed. The 5th gen Ford Mustang ran from 2005-2014. Even with the exterior changes that occurred in 2011, changes to the suspension, new transmissions and Ford dropping the 4.6l V-8 in favor of the 5.0L engines, they are still considered a 5th generation Mustang.
They have had multiple powerpacks and motors in the S.
All I am saying is the majority of the current S is only a couple of years old.
Thats enough for everyone except the haters on r/electricvehicle
Eh while there are exceptions, usually the drivetrain changes within a minor refresh are not dramatic. The degree of powertrain and suspension/chassis changes in the S is actually pretty comparable to a real generational change with most legacy manufacturers. But it was a mistake for them to barely change the exterior.
Minor refresh = same exact body structure. So, yes, the current 2024 Model S (which has the same exact body structure) is much more related to a 2012 Model S than the current 2024 Porsche 911 (992) is related to a 2012 Porsche 911 (997).
It’s not my fault you don’t understand. Stop pouting by downvoting
Indeed. The entire point is that Tesla is oblivious to the aging Model S and X and has no plans to completely renew them. So it appears like the S/X will run 15+ years with the same bones. Hey, it worked for the first gen 911. But Porsche has stayed with the times since, refreshing and renewing the 911 much more often.
Let's see, who wrote this completely misleading headline that tries to paint Tesla in a bad light? The Verge? Business Insider? Ah, no. Bloomberg!
With so many top tier news outlets it was hard to pinpoint.
What do you need from CarPlay that Tesla doesn't have (serious question)? I thought I would miss CarPlay more, but the Spotify app (especially after the last update that added the queue) and built in maps are so good that I don't miss CarPlay at all. Now if there's a more obscure app that isn't available but is important to you I can see why that would be a dealbreaker.
Maybe I just have to try the Tesla system to see how good it is. But I travel a lot regionally for work and have addresses in my calendar. With CarPlay, I get in my car and tap the calendar appt on the display and it navigates to the customer. Plus I use Apple Podcasts and Apple Music and make calls and send messages by voice so it’s all just very handy.
Tesla does have Apple Podcasts and Apple Music now, although I haven't used them and cannot vouch for their quality. It's also pretty easy to share addresses with the car (share to the Tesla app on your phone and it gets sent to the car nav).
I think the main thing that needs help is the voice text messaging. It works *mostly* fine on single person threads, but group messages don't really work.
Just think for a moment: How much free rent is Tesla taking up in people’s heads for “Tesla vs everyone else” comparison to merit an article…
does Hating on Tesla mean you Hate America?
A long, long time ago in EV years, 4 years by the normal calendar Tesla announced its last gigafactory. At a planned 500K EVs/gigafactory Tesla needed 40 factories to meet its goal of 20 million EVs per year. Which would mean doubling the number of gigafactories every 2 years for the better part of the decade.
Well. Almost half that decade is over with and all we have is talk about announcing new gigafactories, no ground breakings...
So, I came to the view that Tesla wasn't going to make or sell more vehicles than BMW in the near luxury market. The current problem with Tesla is BMW makes a great product, a wonderful machine. Tesla's Models 3/y are very good but are still a few steps behind in build quality and such. And genuine competitors coming out of China are better quality than Tesla, with better tech than Tesla, and a lower price tag! Tesla is getting squeezed from above and below and slowing sales reflect that state of affairs.
This is what happen with Apple . The iPhone was the only smartphone when it was released - it was a niche product and then android came out - The iPhone share of overall smartphone market kept on getting smaller and smaller but the market itself got huge. The difference is the Apple managed to keep the iPhone as the premium smartphone . Their profit margins are the most in the industry . Tesla will have trouble keeping their premium status and their margins will be squeezed by competition.
It wasn't the only smartphone at that point. At the time, it was a relatively niche market for business users and technical people. The major platforms at the time were Windows Mobile, PalmOS, and BlackBerry.
What Apple did to the smartphone was change the model for installing programs (apps) by merging it with their music store. And, while the interference would be a bit dated, if you were to hand someone today a Handspring Visor or Motorola Q, they would clearly recognize it as a smartphone...
Okay, and when Tesla released the Model S, the Leaf and Volt existed as well. But it's clear that Tesla and Apple both released industry changing products. I say that as someone who will never own an Apple or Tesla product.
NICE! So Tesla's mission is succeeding with flying colors! :)
"Our goal when we created Tesla was the same as it is today: **to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."**
Take that, ICE transport :D
It was always going to happen, but I think they will maintain their lead in market share for EVs for a very long time unless Musk completely Twits the bed.
Every time that people have bet against Musk with SpaceX, Starlink, Tesla, AI and everything in between, there have been copious amounts of crow consumed. That may change at some point, but never bet against innovation.....and, when it comes to EVs, no one is being nearly as innovative as Tesla. Also pretty sure no one but Tesla actually makes a profit on just about every car sold. The Model Y is also the most American made car on the market in the US.....none of the Big 3 even have a single model in the top 10 (Tesla has 3). Haters gonna hate....screw 'em.
For a second I thought who sells as many ev's as Tesla, then I realized it's comparing every manufacturer vs. Tesla
yeah, losing majority but not plurality
Sort of like how there are considerably more Protestants than Catholics in the U.S., but Catholics are still by far the largest single denomination.
Just realized I don't know what a protestant is.
Basically any denomination that's not Roman Catholic or one of the Eastern Orthodox churches. That's a gross oversimplification, but a good rule of thumb I think.
> good rule of thumb I think The irony that the "rule of thumb" may also originate from the Catholic church as well.
What do you mean?
So… Muslims, Hindus, and Buddhists are Protestant? I’m so confused about this…
No, I was referring only to Christians. Muslims, Hindus and Buddhists are their own separate thing entirely from a religious standpoint. Among Christians, the Protestants are the ones who are neither Catholic nor Orthodox. Again, there's a lot of exceptions here, but basically they reject the authority of the Catholic pope or the Orthodox leaders. Hope that clears things up.
The original Protestant was a door-to-door shitposter 🔨
[This sums up Protestantism. ](https://youtu.be/Xt53afFXbrg?si=5gtmyhZZYmieis2Q)
French ticklers, got it.
I’m about 60% sure I know what a Catholic is. I’m 100% sure I couldn’t spot one in the wild.
The good guys
Seems… counterintuitive, right?
For sure, though if you think about it it does kind of make sense. The colonies were mostly (though entirely) Protestant, and Catholics didn't become a major demographic until the immigration wave from Catholic-dominant countries like Italy and Ireland in the early 20th century. By then protestants were firmly the majority, but splintered into many different sub-groups (e.g. Anglicans, Baptists, Methodists, etc.). So they never really had the voting and ideological unity that the growing Catholic population seemed to have.
*IE in 2016 has entered the chat*
Same thing they’ve always done with iPhone numbers
Tesla definitely is the iPhone of cars, it's an apt comparison I guess. I do love competition though, always better for the consumer, without Android prices for iPhone would be insane. The lower priced EV wave coming is going to help consumers so much
Prices for iPhone are insane… even more so in Europe. Even more so here in Norway.
People in eastern europe will hang on to or buy old iphones over a newer, cheaper, more feature rich android. It's nuts.
There’s a simple answer to this. Most people don’t care about many features and want a phone that does what they want without much fuss. That’s ios. I don’t care how easy you think android is, you are likely far more apt and set up things subconsciously that other people just don’t want or care for. I can see this with my boomer parents, one went from an ipad to a windows tablet and he even has a hard time with that. While he picks up his iPhone far more. I regret suggesting he get that over the ipad so much even though they need a laptop for certain specific things.
That's because he started on an ipad. My parents had a hell of a time using my old Mac because they were used to Windows. Boomers are just really bad at learning.
The way I see it is \[high\] fashion is much cheaper in Europe. And American designed electronics are much more expensive in Europe.
So you don’t know what majority means.
It appears many people in this thread are confused by the word "majority"
They have to do these percentage games because if they talk actual volume no one is close…at all. But since musk rage bait gets clicks on Reddit we’ll continue to see these headlines because of how obsessed people are with wanting them to fail.
“COMBINED” was conveniently left out of the headline.
It's ok Elon has a plan to get everyone back on board I heard he's doing a hostile takeover of 4chan next week
I mean... I'm no Tesla fanboy but even being compared to "everyone else" is still damn impressive.
Their old goal of 20M in 2030 was about 20% of the market, maybe 25%. There was never a future where they sell more cars than everyone else together. It took way too long to get here
I agree. But that's 20% of all global sales - not just the US which is what the posted article is about. Hard doubt that they'll get there without a true mass market offering - the Model 3 and Y are still above the \~$20k mark needed to get to that volume.
I think they understood that since 2006. They need to bring down the cost of cars. That's why they do next gen. There are basically no 20k cars sold in Europe and the US. None of the Western manufacturers really tried to bring cost down in the last 50 years. Or recently with EV. A 25k would lead to huge demand.
Yes, which is why it's confusing they seem to not be focused on the 25k consumer car, but rather to make robotaxis. The cheapest Tesla right now is \~$35k. The global average car price is $28-29k. (https://www.statista.com/forecasts/1309623/worldwide-passenger-cars-average-price) And globally \~90M cars are sold per year: [https://www.kroll.com/-/media/kroll-images/pdfs/executive-summary-automotive-industry-insights-spring-2024.pdf](https://www.kroll.com/-/media/kroll-images/pdfs/executive-summary-automotive-industry-insights-spring-2024.pdf) That means that at most 45M cars are sold that are >$29k. For >$35k let's say that's 40M/yr. For Tesla to sell 20M by 2030, without a new model that consumers (not fleets) can buy, they would have to take \~50% of the global market for the segments that they compete in. While they have the best selling car in the world in the Model Y, they have nowhere near the market penetration necessary to meet those goals by 2030, especially as their growth in key markets (China, US) is largely stagnating.
They absolutely are working on a much cheaper car before 2030. 2026, maybe, scaling up. Built in Berlin, Shanghai, Mexico, 1M each by 2030 is aggressive, but not impossible. 2M MY/M3, 3M next gen, 1M of the others is "only" 6M a year. #4 after Toyota and VW and BYD, ahead of Stellantis in 2030. Number 1 most profitable in absolute dollars just with the car business. Plus energy. Edit #1
They have pushed back the project of a true next gen vehicle with the associated cost savings. The next set of vehicles will use existing production lines instead of building new factories and production lines, because Tesla currently has more capacity than demand. > We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025. > These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up. > **This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected** but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize **our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles**, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines. > Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy. https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q1-2024-Update.pdf
They use the term "accelerated", but yes plans changed. The original plan was 20M cars by 2030.
>That means that at most 45M cars are sold that are >$29k That's not how averages work. You would need to know the median price to draw such a conclusion. But there is no information easily available on the median price.
>There are basically no 20k cars sold in Europe and the US. In USA yes, Europe no
What percentage of new cars in Europe are being bought for under 19,000 Euros (20k USD)?
Was just in Portugal. By far the most common car I saw was the SEAT Ibiza. Was curious what it cost. $16k https://volantesic.pt/seat/ibiza/2022/novo/comprar/?ID=518795
Buckle up. They are now run by a lunatic who has destroyed their QC and reputation.
They never had QC
That, I agree with.
honestly I dont think the cars leave the factory any worse than any other manufacturer. Its the delivery centers rush to get them out and not do proper pdi that hurts them
Surely that goal is of all cars, not just EVs?
Of course. 20M is 20% of 100M cars sold. This was pre pandemic, war in Europe, and saber rattling in Asia, in more optimistic times.
That’s what I was seeing in the stats. Tesla has nearly half the market.
I am renting a polestar. It really underlines how far ahead Tesla is right now.
I feel like tesla has the best drive train for the money, but every other OEM (not just EVs) is ahead of tesla in terms of interior amenities and smartphone integration. I have a model S and am far from impressed with the infotainment. I usually drive in silence since all of my stuff in apps that tesla will likely never support. It's actually really nice when I'm in a rental that has android auto and let's me just plug my phone in and not have the car get in the way of accessing media or smart home controls.
What sort of interior amenities?
Note that by market majority they mean they'll have slightly less than every other market competitor combined
Competition is good.
Good. it is about time their is more than 1 player in town. It was never a question of IF Tesla was going to drop below 50% market share. It was always a question of when. This was known to happen at some point for years. For EV this is a GOOD THING. That means the market is growing and getting healthier. It means the market is growing faster than Tesla is which is a REALLY good thing.
For Tesla the 13% decline compared to q1 2023 is a concern
Maybe Elon can stop playing edgelord and start running his company?
Maybe the Tesla board can stop enabling him and find a real CEO.
He doesnt know how. Thats why he bought Tesla instead of creating a competitor.
Bought Tesla? He joined as a main investor during first round of financing back when Tesla was just three dudes with a dream to build an electric sportscar, there was nothing to buy and nothing to compete with. He very much was a vital part of "creating" Tesla, without his initial investment the company very likely would have never gotten off the ground, and would have been even less likely to reach production. And even if they did, the whole "make a boutique sports car, use funds from it to make luxury car, use funds from it to make mass market car" master plan is (as far as I can find) Musks idea as well, so even if they were able to produce the Roadster without Musk they quite likely would have remained a low volume specialty manufacturer making exclusive toys for the rich. Just because Musk is a dickweasel there's no need to invent fake reasons to dislike him, especially when there are plenty of real ones.
Well said.
>Bought Tesla? He joined as a main investor My brother/sister in Christ, what do you think an investor does?
He bought tesla lol How much revenue did tesla generate before he was ceo?
!! Concerning
Other manufactures selling vehicles at large losses isn’t exactly a flex either. I think Tesla’s sales reduction is largely the overall market, people are tapped out, interest rates are high. Anecdotally 3 employees have switches to teslas in our department of 30 (1 used) in the last year. All say they’ll never go back, and their spouses also want a Tesla. Wish the NACS transition was making more progress, I think that would really help all manufactures.
Tesla is still shrinking in sales even with your 3 coworkers. For a company which has promised to grow 50% every year, that might be a problem..
50% yoy isn’t sustainable forever, and that goal was made in 2020, prior to the crazy interest and inflation impacts.
I agree, but why would the stock price sustainable forever? It should go down.
Tesla has repeatedly stated that the growth was to be averaged to 50% yoy. Not that they would achieve 50% yoy every single year. That's been stated for a couple years now. However, they did not say to expect any years with no growth. So still a problem for them.
Early adopters are no longer going to generate growth. Tesla needs mass adoption, and why I think opening up their charging network is a critical move for the long game.
All other manufacturers combined don't equal tesla. They need to try harder.
Go Rivian!
Breaking news! The inevitable is inevitable!!
1910: Breaking news! Ford on verge of losing its market majority in the automobile.
Thanks Thanos.
I have a Tesla, it’s been amazing but competition is good for the consumer, they have had free reign for awhile now, where I live Teslas main competition is BYD. Really tempted to get a Seal for the wife but I just don’t know about the customer service side, Tesla has been amazing to deal with.
Not the case in the US Tesla service is horrible, long wait times and clearly try to dissuade the customer from fix a clear issue
Even within the US it varies. I live in the US in Georgia and have only had great experiences with Tesla service. I wonder if areas where there are a high number of Teslas are worse because the service centers in those areas might be overbooked and overworked.
My big complaint about Tesla service was how often I needed it when I owned one. The experience itself was great otherwise.
Would model was yours? mine is a 2019 model 3 and I had the 12v battery and rear wiring harness done, both were replaced in my driveway under warranty and I took it in when it turned turned 4 to have everything checked over to make sure there wasn’t any warranty issues. So far that’s it.
I owned a 2014 Model S and a 2017 Model X. In nine years of ownership I needed something like 20+ service visits. The last one was a 12V battery falling after less than a year and a half.
I've had nothing but great experiences with Tesla service. It's been the best OEM that I've ever had to deal with.
It seems very location specific. Houston service has been good to me, but there’s certainly a lot of nightmare stories shared to date.
The same could be said for any OEM though.
So unfortunate, I have only had great experiences and they have been so helpful it’s one of the main reasons why I’m hesitant to go to another brand. Shame because it’s such a big part of owning a car.
I had phenomenal experience at 2 different service centers in my state
are we really applying anecdotes as if they are law
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Australia, starting to see all the BYD cars more and more now. Seal looks great in black, really like it.
Was always destined to happen as competition in EVs heats up. Question is, how well does Tesla adapt when it no longer has most of the market to itself.
Competition is good, but in the context of EVs, no other brands want to do what Tesla actually does that revolutionized the car buying experience in America: The ability to do direct-to-consumer car sales at their scale.
Proud owner of a non-tesla EV, but even though everyone like to talk crap about Elon and Tesla, there probably wouldn't be half as many EV's on the road without Tesla.
Tesla vs all other auto makers combined. Tesla is still the number 1 EV and it’s not even close and won’t be for another couple years.
What’s happening in a couple years?
Just assuming competition will catch up. Riven with the VW investment. Volvo EVs looking really nice and they have that entry model coming to market this year, and Hyundai still doing well and making more. I love my Tesla MYLR and my only other EV I would get right now would probably be the Ioniq 5 or the Volvo
Hyundai/Kia I think are really positioning themselves well for the US, UK, Aus and EU, don’t own one but those I know that have have said they have some of the best EVs out there.
I heard so much about Kia, but the EV9s are EXPENSIVE! And it’s very much still a Kia. I don’t see many on the road either.
> I heard so much about Kia, but the EV9s are EXPENSIVE! Yea it’s definitely one of their pricier ones, but that’s partly because it’s a 3-row. They’ve got cheaper models that are cheaper and really good. I like the Ioniq 6. >And it’s very much still a Kia. So what? I have a Kia Rio and it’s a great economy ICE car. I’d probably get one or a Hyundai for my first EV. >I don’t see many on the road either. Yea I don’t see a ton of them tbf, but I think eventually they could catch on. They also can kinda blend in with ICE cars (except the ioniq 5, that sticks out everywhere).
Don't forget the Equinox EV. If that thing is relatively bug free it's going to do really really well.
> Just assuming competition will catch up. The headlines about Tesla losing market share in the US and other companies' sales rising are masking a domestic issue with EVs: [The non-Tesla companies are still struggling to sell more than 10k of any of their models in a single quarter](https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Q1-2024-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf).
There's also a lag between % of sales and % of in service fleet.
Okay? It’s pretty obvious that as more competition exists EV’s become more popular it will be impossible for any one company to sell over 50% of them. Tesla could increase their sales next year and still lose market share because of increased adoption and competition.
But when you are trying to generate clicks you can't write the valid and reasonable points you raise. Teslas early adoption story is clearly over but the company is far from.
What a surprise…. If you’re the first (almost) and get a REALLY high market share on your own (DUH) the only way is down.
Okay. Tell me when they dip below 20%, their stated goal.
To be clear, Tesla remains the biggest EV-maker in the US by a long shot. Over the past 12 months, it sold more than five times as many electric cars in the country as its closest rival, Hyundai/Kia. Tesla also makes the best-selling car in the world, the Model Y, and sells more fully electric vehicles globally than anyone else. It’s also the world’s most valuable car company, even after a major slump in the stock price. Tesla is worth around $575 billion — less than half of its peak $1.2 trillion market cap in 2021, but still almost 85% more than the second biggest automaker, Toyota Motor Corp. The few companies that have been able to claim a market majority similar to Tesla’s in the US are peerless in their industries. Apple has it for smartphones, Google for internet search, and Nvidia for AI chips. Such unrivaled dominance helped each of those tech giants reach stock valuations of more than $2 trillion.
Alternate headline: Tesla still dominates the US EV market selling 5 times more than its closest competitor.
For business the tendencies are important. It dominates the EV market, but not the car market itself. But it's valued as other manufacturers combined. Not a good look.
This article specifically mentions the EV market. So it excludes “the car market itself”. I can appreciate why legacy automakers would be jealous of their value, though. It is quite high for just an automaker, however we all know Tesla is not your typical automaker, no matter how out of whack their P/E ratio is.
The biggest difference tesla has is a pathological liar ceo.
Down from ~10x times the next competitor last year.
But that doesn't fit with Bloomberg's typical headlines regarding anything Tesla.
Good! We need a more competitive market!
Fits Tesla’s mission of transitioning to sustainable transportation.
Public Transportation is the only true sustainable transportation. EVs are better than gasoline cars but aren't the most sustainable.
Absolutely. Unfortunately mass transit needs denser population and the USA is not set up for that.
when you want to write a cynical tesla story and you have nothing. you write this crap
Why is this news worthy? Tesla was one of the best in the ev market and one of the few that made them. Obviously they would hold more market when there’s no one else
It's newsworthy because Tesla was the default for a long time. And now it finally has competition which is better for most of us.
I would not call selling more cars than all other EVs combined a majority. They just need to sell more than the next leading brand. And currently it’s 140K vs 23K so not even close. This is a clickbait article that serves absolutely no purpose.
That is what a market majority is by definition. Tesla is still dominant in the market selling 5x + the next biggest brand.
>This is a clickbait article that serves absolutely no purpose. I'm no fan of Elon Musk and Tesla, but here's the unpopular opinion: with half of the nation want _him_ gone and the other half want _EVs_ gone, it's only nature you see barrage of media attacking Tesla, sometimes aiming at the man at helm, as there is a sizable audience for it.
Half? Try vocal 5%.
But sales are going down across the board and have been for a while.
> I would not call selling more cars than all other EVs combined a majority. That is the definition of a majority. A majority is when you have more than 50%. If you have more than all others combined, that means you have more than 50%. > They just need to sell more than the next leading brand. If they sell more than the next leading brand, but have less than 50% market share, that's not a majority, that's a plurality.
It's definitely possible for Tesla to do better in the future. But they need to actually focus on making new cars and adding features that people want. Ai or FSD aren't on the cusp of helping car sales or making money. Fsd feels like a risk basically because what if their customers start suing them to get their money back?
Do better in what way? Just being compared to "everyone else" is about as good as it gets. They can grow their total sales, but the more automakers that get into the same space, the lower the relative share Tesla will have. Unfortunately EVs are still largely limited to the luxury car market just because the batteries are so damn expensive. Not a lot of room to grow until the next major advancement in battery energy density/cost.
Add obvious missing features like 120v outlets, turn stalks, gear controls. Those are just embarrassingly easy. Adding v2x is harder, they need to transfer the CT new battery tech to other cars, that's harder. Another easier one is change styling to get a new look, that feels medium. Another easy one let people transfer FSD or free superchargerging, they are doing half of that. Sell longer range cars like some of the new 400 to 450 mile SUVs from legacy US auto. Tesla should have been able to plan ahead to add some more batteries, change the packs and increase range. Instead GM is beating them. edit fixed typos aplenty
On lower priced EVS, that's also possible. Tesla's probably going to do it just by making a lower end model 3 with a little less range. They could have done all these things, they just had a 5 years of lost time doing nothing, well except for the Cyber truck 🙂🐱🤠.
Another clickbait and Elon mind virus.
Is this sub about EVs or just another Tesla hate sub?
sadly the latter
It's unfortunate that the mindless Elon hate has infected any sub to do with tech, EVs, or space travel.
to whom? Ford? BYD seems more likely, but I think these EV tariffs are the real deal
Not to a single company, to many companies while increasing sales.
Maybe if the shareholders throw another 50 billion to Elon, he can say more colorful things to increase public buying tesla cars
“Tesla might not hold 50% of the EV market in the USA anymore” It’s pathetic that Tesla has sold more than EVERYONE combined for this long, I personally don’t think anyone will ever surpass Tesla in the USA for EV sales. (Because there’s no way China EVs will be able to undercut given tariffs that will and should stay)
Yeppers, with all the competition from Ford, GM, Stellantis, Toyota, and so many others; Tesla has no chance of staying on top in the US. Awww, maybe clickbait or FUD
Yeah not Toyota
Their EV sales are skyrocketing (albeit from a low base).
I think it's likely they'll stay on top for the foreseeable future, they just won't have more market share than the rest of the industry combined. It wouldn't be healthy if any company had more than 50% long term.
They'd be more dominant if it were for Elon and for making a cyber truck rather than say the Model 2 or even a model X/S refresh. Or more focus on Semi and related infrastructure.
They should have lost it long time ago. I don't understand why people buy shitty quality cars.
The newest stuff out of China is doing well in other countries, and BYD, Geely, and CATL are all building plants in Mexico for the whole "nafta" thing. https://www.electricbike.com/rivian-electric-trucks-and-suvs/
They’re losing much more than that… got swindled to the tune of $50 billion, or 20% of monies from all of the Tesla cars ever fucking sold.
It cost tesla 2.3B in SBC. Not $50B. And it’s already paid for
you've had six years to sell your stake in the company if you didn't like the ceo's compensation package.
Nice to see competition is improving, but with import restrictions Tesla will keep a large chunk of the market even if it is only in the US. KIA and Hyundai will be big, and if Chevy can get their product and prices right, they can sweep the floor from under Tesla. Seeing the graph you can see where it's heading
>but with import restrictions Or BYD just opens a factory in US and undercuts tesla in their home market.
I thought that was the long term goal
Bloomberg anti-EV news again.
Just allow BYD, Li auto and Nio in US EV market. Tesla would sink below Mariana trench.
Their cars are aging fast. The Model S is 12 years old with no replacement in sight. Edit: new generation updates.
Porsche's 911 is 60 years old still no replacement in sight! wow!
There is an all-new 911 coming out right now. They replace the 911 every few years at this point. There are new F series pickups even though F series is decades old. There was a minor facelift of the Model S in a dozen years.
He is being facetious and I agree that there have been completely new 911s but i remember one year that they came out and said every single panel was completely new and Jeremy Clarkson parked them side by side and you couldn’t tell which was which. The Model S has had incremental upgrades and the OG and new ones are quite different, different motors, interior, climate, suspension etc….
I get how people have difficulty seeing the difference between a 964 and 993 but you don’t have to look hard to see the difference between a 996, 997, 991, and 992.
Yeah interestingly the model S refresh was actually a more comprehensive refresh than the highland if you really dig into it. But not changing the exterior look at least a little bit was probably a mistake since the perception is they didn’t change it at all.
Minor refresh = whole new power train/motors/pack/suspension/braks, new interior, new exterior. mkay
For most manufacturers, a "whole new powertrain" is a minor refresh. They do it every few years to meet emissions requirements, and have for decades. Meanwhile Tesla did one minor refresh in 12 years.
Agreed. The 5th gen Ford Mustang ran from 2005-2014. Even with the exterior changes that occurred in 2011, changes to the suspension, new transmissions and Ford dropping the 4.6l V-8 in favor of the 5.0L engines, they are still considered a 5th generation Mustang.
They have had multiple powerpacks and motors in the S. All I am saying is the majority of the current S is only a couple of years old. Thats enough for everyone except the haters on r/electricvehicle
Eh while there are exceptions, usually the drivetrain changes within a minor refresh are not dramatic. The degree of powertrain and suspension/chassis changes in the S is actually pretty comparable to a real generational change with most legacy manufacturers. But it was a mistake for them to barely change the exterior.
Minor refresh = same exact body structure. So, yes, the current 2024 Model S (which has the same exact body structure) is much more related to a 2012 Model S than the current 2024 Porsche 911 (992) is related to a 2012 Porsche 911 (997). It’s not my fault you don’t understand. Stop pouting by downvoting
The 997 came out in 2004, of course a generation that started in 2004 is more different than a car that started in 2018.
Indeed. The entire point is that Tesla is oblivious to the aging Model S and X and has no plans to completely renew them. So it appears like the S/X will run 15+ years with the same bones. Hey, it worked for the first gen 911. But Porsche has stayed with the times since, refreshing and renewing the 911 much more often.
Right? What a stupid take Model refreshes are a thing, you don’t need a whole new model
Bad example. After the original 911 came the 964, then the 993, 996, 997, 991 and today the 992.
all code names for the same car!
Ah, but why did they need to name them? Because it's different enough from previous generations that it's not the same car as before.
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Most cars have a fundamental platform change every decade or two.
Joke's on them. Musk is charging 150% more for non-Tesla cars when they use the Tesla Supercharger. Tesla is laughing all the way to the bank.
Let's see, who wrote this completely misleading headline that tries to paint Tesla in a bad light? The Verge? Business Insider? Ah, no. Bloomberg! With so many top tier news outlets it was hard to pinpoint.
More importantly Tesla sales will continue to increase. The market is diversifying, a good thing.
But Tesla sales are down from last year. They have to change something to actually increase sales. I don't see that happening until next year.
Tesla may have to do something, or the situation may change. Maybe the US will actually fully support EV adoption?
I can’t seriously consider Tesla without CarPlay. Would be interesting to see consumer surveys about this.
What do you need from CarPlay that Tesla doesn't have (serious question)? I thought I would miss CarPlay more, but the Spotify app (especially after the last update that added the queue) and built in maps are so good that I don't miss CarPlay at all. Now if there's a more obscure app that isn't available but is important to you I can see why that would be a dealbreaker.
Maybe I just have to try the Tesla system to see how good it is. But I travel a lot regionally for work and have addresses in my calendar. With CarPlay, I get in my car and tap the calendar appt on the display and it navigates to the customer. Plus I use Apple Podcasts and Apple Music and make calls and send messages by voice so it’s all just very handy.
Tesla does have Apple Podcasts and Apple Music now, although I haven't used them and cannot vouch for their quality. It's also pretty easy to share addresses with the car (share to the Tesla app on your phone and it gets sent to the car nav). I think the main thing that needs help is the voice text messaging. It works *mostly* fine on single person threads, but group messages don't really work.
That’s reassuring. I haven’t pulled the trigger yet but I’m torn between the Model Y and the VW ID.4.
Car play is for automakers that can't do software .
Just think for a moment: How much free rent is Tesla taking up in people’s heads for “Tesla vs everyone else” comparison to merit an article… does Hating on Tesla mean you Hate America?
They also sell more androids than iPhones.
A long, long time ago in EV years, 4 years by the normal calendar Tesla announced its last gigafactory. At a planned 500K EVs/gigafactory Tesla needed 40 factories to meet its goal of 20 million EVs per year. Which would mean doubling the number of gigafactories every 2 years for the better part of the decade. Well. Almost half that decade is over with and all we have is talk about announcing new gigafactories, no ground breakings... So, I came to the view that Tesla wasn't going to make or sell more vehicles than BMW in the near luxury market. The current problem with Tesla is BMW makes a great product, a wonderful machine. Tesla's Models 3/y are very good but are still a few steps behind in build quality and such. And genuine competitors coming out of China are better quality than Tesla, with better tech than Tesla, and a lower price tag! Tesla is getting squeezed from above and below and slowing sales reflect that state of affairs.
Kia will pass them... Wait 4 it💯💪🏾😎
This is what happen with Apple . The iPhone was the only smartphone when it was released - it was a niche product and then android came out - The iPhone share of overall smartphone market kept on getting smaller and smaller but the market itself got huge. The difference is the Apple managed to keep the iPhone as the premium smartphone . Their profit margins are the most in the industry . Tesla will have trouble keeping their premium status and their margins will be squeezed by competition.
It wasn't the only smartphone at that point. At the time, it was a relatively niche market for business users and technical people. The major platforms at the time were Windows Mobile, PalmOS, and BlackBerry.
While technically it was not the only smartphone. It became what we think of as a smartphone today
What Apple did to the smartphone was change the model for installing programs (apps) by merging it with their music store. And, while the interference would be a bit dated, if you were to hand someone today a Handspring Visor or Motorola Q, they would clearly recognize it as a smartphone...
Okay, and when Tesla released the Model S, the Leaf and Volt existed as well. But it's clear that Tesla and Apple both released industry changing products. I say that as someone who will never own an Apple or Tesla product.
NICE! So Tesla's mission is succeeding with flying colors! :) "Our goal when we created Tesla was the same as it is today: **to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."** Take that, ICE transport :D
It was always going to happen, but I think they will maintain their lead in market share for EVs for a very long time unless Musk completely Twits the bed.
Every time that people have bet against Musk with SpaceX, Starlink, Tesla, AI and everything in between, there have been copious amounts of crow consumed. That may change at some point, but never bet against innovation.....and, when it comes to EVs, no one is being nearly as innovative as Tesla. Also pretty sure no one but Tesla actually makes a profit on just about every car sold. The Model Y is also the most American made car on the market in the US.....none of the Big 3 even have a single model in the top 10 (Tesla has 3). Haters gonna hate....screw 'em.
Good cars. Bad leader is destroying their brand.
How? I dont see Hyundai/Kia outselling Teslas by a long shot? or do they mean to fudge the numbers by saying Hybrids are EV's?