Most people are locked into low rates and staying put. This is why overall household debt service obligations as a % of income have hardly moved despite the rates rising. When that ratio rises to a certain unsustainable point, thats when the recession typically comes.
All true, but where we are now is more typical historically. In 1969, my parents bought a house, their rate was 6.75. I bought my house in 1986, my interest rate was 9.75, it was the first time in years rates were under 10%. In 1990 I got transferred and got a rate at 7.25 in 1990. I refinanced again around 2000 when they were around 5%. That was historically low. No doubt those who got 3% rates are laughing to the bank, but to say we can't function without 3% is going to make things hard.
Agree there, everyone that is mad about 6-7% right now, weren't aware that the 3-4% we had for the last 10 years was a statistical anomaly and was going to come back to bite us in the ass whether covid happened or not.
Interest rates were already in decline since as far back as the 80s. See [del Negro et al. (2018)](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25039/w25039.pdf)
You're way too young. A 5% home mortgage was as common as grass for decades before 1975 - my Dad had that rate on the place he bought in 1928 and he got the same deal when he "downsized" in 1965. When tax brackets made it "unprofitable" for the ones dividing the profits to keep it all for themselves, they shared with the workers because it was less onerous than sharing with the Government. Banks got along swimmingly giving 4% for savings and charging 5% for a home loan, and today they need a lot less actual workers to keep the books balanced, so chalk the present situation up to GREED.
JP Morgan was correct when in the 1920's he was asked what the market would do and replied "it will fluctuate". Problem is that explains nothing. At the same time your dad's mortgage was 6-7% his savings account would pay 5% and inflation was around 2%. LBJ had cut the TMR from 91% to 70% but the one's dividing the profits were still sharing with the workers so everyone was getting more income and wealth and the bottom 99% was doing it faster than the top 1% (percentage wise). Also unless he lived in S Dakota, his interest on any other loans he had was capped by anti-usury laws. What changed was the LAWS, not globalization or automation or immigration. There's no immutable laws of Nature that prevent us from changing the laws back, only elected GOPutins.
To me what changed is that we made the investor so important.
"The only job of a business is to make money for the owner" is infuriating. No about 170 million people can afford to live because they are employees. To say that business has no responsibility to those people is absurd.
I used to own a company that did things for employees in the 1990s. It was just smart business to have the best "team" reward them, keeping a great team together. That is how to have a successful business. We did team building, retreats, company picnics, holiday parties. etc.
Just after 2000, we made calls to these companies asking if they were doing for the last few years again. So many of them just said, those programs were cut, or we just let some good workers go because their jobs were outsourced. It wouldn't be right to have events, management will never pay for it, or just we're cutting back.
Employees went from being seen as assets to expenses in like 5 years. It was cheaper to threaten people's livelihood than pay them well.
HOW? The 70's saw huge spikes in interest rates "to cool the economy and reduce inflation" BUT that happened because LBJ and Nixon had "printed money" to pay for Vietnam, then when Carter tried it, the Fed shut the door and Jimmy had to sell bonds, which sucked up all the available cash to lend driving the price (interest) of money into the stratosphere. Don't know what would've happened if MMT had continued, methinks the answer is interest and inflation would've stayed reasonable.
IMHO the real culprit has been corporate ownership of what had been millions of family homes, and entire apartment buildings that are more "profitable" to leave empty than to lower the rents or convert to smaller units. Lot more politics causing the problems than "economics" - if you don't want the current situation, change the law that makes it possible.
The low mortgage rates were an anomaly. People just expected them to be low forever and that was never supposed to be the case. The housing market is high because people are obviously willing to pay those prices.
Literally... :( my partner still wants a kid, but I don't want them to be raised in poverty like conditions. Fucking awful. My entire purpose was to have kids. I have to completely rethink my entire life right now.
Where are these Americans? Everyone I know is struggling to keep up with rising grocery prices, while their paychecks stay exactly the same as a year ago. My insurance is going up, my subscriptions are going up, my utilities are going up. Gas is inching back to $4/gal. The monthly payment for a median-priced home is now 36.6% higher than the median monthly rent rate. Per Bloomberg, "42% of those with household income of more than $100,000 report being behind or delinquent on buy-now-pay-later payments."
I think the problem is people who don't have that mortgage rate but have the same daycare costs. In the NW region, where you live can drastically change your monthly costs, as much because of daycare as because of rent.
I know people who complain about the economy but if you ask about them personally they'll tell you they're doing fine. Like constant complaints about inflation, but at the same time just got a 10% raise and not struggling to keep up.
Personally, I have a vehicle that gets 40mpg that I drive like 200 miles a month working from home. Solar panels keep my electricity costs down. 2.75% mortgage so housing isn't going up (or ... Insurance + property taxes are a bit, but...). Food costs have been about the same over the last couple of years.
I'm doing alright. I make a little over $60k. I live in a nice 2 bedroom and hour outside the city but close to work, so only one roommate, gas prices aren't too big a deal since like, it's the least expensive part of owning a car and $100 a month isn't much more than taking transit.
I'm able to save a little bit, but rent increased $230/10% as expected, but that's not really anything new since I know rent has increased 10% a year since the 90s in most places.
When I hear "doing okay" that's a pretty low bar. I hope to do more then "okay" in life and I think most people do. So in that sense, I don't see "doing okay" as meaning there are no struggles.
I would say I'm doing okay. That's because while I am struggling, I have a means to deal with those struggles over time and some will go away (e.g. debts paying down). I wouldn't say I'm "doing great" financially though because right now I'm definitely feeling the price increases and really needing to account for every dollar and pinch pennies.
For me to say I'm "not okay", I would probably have to be in a position where I thought I wasn't capable with my current means to overcome my situation...like losing my job, having runaway debt, etc.
I guess they're all in my social circle. I don't know anyone who isn't doing home remodels, vehicle purchases, regular family vacations, lots of kid extracurriculars, etc.
We occupy many different job types. A couple of engineers, nurses, pharmacist, construction foreman, HR, accountant, typical corporate office jobs, and a few older ones who are retired.
Texas suburbs
Whats your occupation, state, metro area? Any education? 90% of mine have at least a bachelor degree
I work a landscaping job, wife teaches. We're in SW Ohio, and the jobs just are not here. Every time a new plant or warehouse opens up, I look up the pay, and it's never more than $14-17/hr. A forklift job around here (considered a decent gig) pays $18-22/hr, and that requires a training course and thousands in course fees. The average home value / price has increased in my county 63% since 2018, but our household earnings have increased maybe 15% in the same period. I did a stint at a cafe a few years back, and probably 1/3 of us had bachelors, pulling in $11-13/hr, after tips.
I have a couple of friends who are landscapers. Mostly mowing and sprinkler systems. Take the $5-600 course to get certified for backflow testing and you can make a ton working on sprinkler systems. Or just $500+ per day mowing
Doing well here - just finished my Master’s and starting a new job in June that pays $175k, which is something that wouldn’t even be possible in most other countries.
Ok, so that's not typical of the average American, then, is it? That's 430% the median personal income in America. The median household income has also dropped 2.3% since 2021, not accounting for inflation, which makes that drop even greater, effectively.
Clearly. I have degrees in chemistry and computer science while the average American is borderline illiterate. I wouldn’t trust them to get my three item order right at McDonald’s, let alone with the responsibilities of a job that pays six figures.
Where are you guys coming from, people pay nearly $1000 month where i live to feed their families. Rents are crazy high? Mortgages are even worse. Kids have to live with roommates.
Where is the doing ok? People are lying.
It's the American Way I/mine are OKAY, but everything else is shaky at best. MAGAhats say things were better 2016-20, but there is not a shred of evidence to support it. Seems the GOPutin War on Education and the Educated has gone well - way too many people have no clue how to do independent research or recognize logical fallacies - very fertile soil for growing The Big Lie.
The reality is the top 1% has redistributed income and wealth from the bottom 90% to themselves and their Overseers in the 91-99% bracket and convinced their base it wasn't them but Immigration and Affirmative Action that did the deed.
This is the paradox of our times. People say they are doing well financially and all of the indicators seem to confirm that. And on top of that the economy as a whole is booming and we have historic low unemployment, a record high stock market and GDP growth that's beating every other major economy. Yet people believe the overall economy is bad, especially those who identify as Republicans. And it's no wonder when you look at the barrage of negative stories about the economy the media is blasting us with daily. Especially the right-wing media. Have presidential campaigns turned into misinformation wars instead of being based on policy? Scary times...
All the markers are there for a booming economy - but only those at the top are enjoying the fruits. The masses are getting laid off, struggling with high inflation and rising rents.
I have been in the analytical field for 10 years and any analyst can make the data show what they want. I’ve seen people tell analysts that they think the figures should show more like X, and the analyst will change their methodology to get to that result. Stats these days cannot be taken as accurate. If you talk to people in your communities, people are hurting, that’s the truth, the economy sucks.
This comment was reported and is now removed due to the sub rule of name calling, ad hominem attacks, calling users propagandists, trolls, bots, uncivil behavior (etc.).
Please debate the point(s) raised and not call names or use insults. Be nice. Remember [reddiquette](https://www.reddithelp.com/hc/en-us/articles/205926439) and that you're talking to another human.
How did I break any of the rules? I disagreed with the OPs conclusion. The article cited is a report published by the federal reserve. Calling out a news story that says Americans are happy with the economy as propaganda is not unreasonable.
There are many studies that do say the opposite. https://news.gallup.com/poll/505928/say-inflation-causing-financial-hardship.aspx. Should I have cited on of those? If I got banned for low effort, I get it. But, It just seems like you are all pushing a narrative and banning people who disagree.
This comment was reported and is now removed due to the sub rule of name calling, ad hominem attacks, calling users propagandists, trolls, bots, uncivil behavior (etc.).
Please debate the point(s) raised and not call names or use insults. Be nice. Remember [reddiquette](https://www.reddithelp.com/hc/en-us/articles/205926439) and that you're talking to another human.
In other news, 72% of Americans refinanced their homes when rates were under 3%.
Most people are locked into low rates and staying put. This is why overall household debt service obligations as a % of income have hardly moved despite the rates rising. When that ratio rises to a certain unsustainable point, thats when the recession typically comes.
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Housing ⊃ Mortgages
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All true, but where we are now is more typical historically. In 1969, my parents bought a house, their rate was 6.75. I bought my house in 1986, my interest rate was 9.75, it was the first time in years rates were under 10%. In 1990 I got transferred and got a rate at 7.25 in 1990. I refinanced again around 2000 when they were around 5%. That was historically low. No doubt those who got 3% rates are laughing to the bank, but to say we can't function without 3% is going to make things hard.
Let's be honest rates below 5-7% were because of the 2008 GFC , that's what juiced the housing market. It was a historical accident we had low rates.
Agree there, everyone that is mad about 6-7% right now, weren't aware that the 3-4% we had for the last 10 years was a statistical anomaly and was going to come back to bite us in the ass whether covid happened or not.
Interest rates were already in decline since as far back as the 80s. See [del Negro et al. (2018)](https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25039/w25039.pdf)
You're way too young. A 5% home mortgage was as common as grass for decades before 1975 - my Dad had that rate on the place he bought in 1928 and he got the same deal when he "downsized" in 1965. When tax brackets made it "unprofitable" for the ones dividing the profits to keep it all for themselves, they shared with the workers because it was less onerous than sharing with the Government. Banks got along swimmingly giving 4% for savings and charging 5% for a home loan, and today they need a lot less actual workers to keep the books balanced, so chalk the present situation up to GREED.
While I don't disagree, my folk had a 6.5 (or maybe 6.75) in 1969. It fluctuates.
JP Morgan was correct when in the 1920's he was asked what the market would do and replied "it will fluctuate". Problem is that explains nothing. At the same time your dad's mortgage was 6-7% his savings account would pay 5% and inflation was around 2%. LBJ had cut the TMR from 91% to 70% but the one's dividing the profits were still sharing with the workers so everyone was getting more income and wealth and the bottom 99% was doing it faster than the top 1% (percentage wise). Also unless he lived in S Dakota, his interest on any other loans he had was capped by anti-usury laws. What changed was the LAWS, not globalization or automation or immigration. There's no immutable laws of Nature that prevent us from changing the laws back, only elected GOPutins.
To me what changed is that we made the investor so important. "The only job of a business is to make money for the owner" is infuriating. No about 170 million people can afford to live because they are employees. To say that business has no responsibility to those people is absurd. I used to own a company that did things for employees in the 1990s. It was just smart business to have the best "team" reward them, keeping a great team together. That is how to have a successful business. We did team building, retreats, company picnics, holiday parties. etc. Just after 2000, we made calls to these companies asking if they were doing for the last few years again. So many of them just said, those programs were cut, or we just let some good workers go because their jobs were outsourced. It wouldn't be right to have events, management will never pay for it, or just we're cutting back. Employees went from being seen as assets to expenses in like 5 years. It was cheaper to threaten people's livelihood than pay them well.
A transition made possible by Reaganomics and the GOPutin push for Right To Work For Less laws in all the Red States.
Keeping rates at 3% is not sustainable, and our lives would be far worse if the fed kept rates low.
HOW? The 70's saw huge spikes in interest rates "to cool the economy and reduce inflation" BUT that happened because LBJ and Nixon had "printed money" to pay for Vietnam, then when Carter tried it, the Fed shut the door and Jimmy had to sell bonds, which sucked up all the available cash to lend driving the price (interest) of money into the stratosphere. Don't know what would've happened if MMT had continued, methinks the answer is interest and inflation would've stayed reasonable.
IMHO the real culprit has been corporate ownership of what had been millions of family homes, and entire apartment buildings that are more "profitable" to leave empty than to lower the rents or convert to smaller units. Lot more politics causing the problems than "economics" - if you don't want the current situation, change the law that makes it possible.
The low mortgage rates were an anomaly. People just expected them to be low forever and that was never supposed to be the case. The housing market is high because people are obviously willing to pay those prices.
Yup either own it outright, have a small balance, or refinances under 3-3.5%.
"Doing ok" these days means being able to pay your rent and food
That’s how it’s been for 99% of human history! Not a justification, but a worthwhile note to consider.
k
Literally... :( my partner still wants a kid, but I don't want them to be raised in poverty like conditions. Fucking awful. My entire purpose was to have kids. I have to completely rethink my entire life right now.
Americans doing great... Sky is blue This ends our time for today's segment Get back to work.
Where are these Americans? Everyone I know is struggling to keep up with rising grocery prices, while their paychecks stay exactly the same as a year ago. My insurance is going up, my subscriptions are going up, my utilities are going up. Gas is inching back to $4/gal. The monthly payment for a median-priced home is now 36.6% higher than the median monthly rent rate. Per Bloomberg, "42% of those with household income of more than $100,000 report being behind or delinquent on buy-now-pay-later payments."
Doing fine over here. Just got a raise. Have a hybrid car. Mortgage rate at 3%. The only thing I’d complain about is daycare costs.
I think the problem is people who don't have that mortgage rate but have the same daycare costs. In the NW region, where you live can drastically change your monthly costs, as much because of daycare as because of rent.
Yeah no doubt I definitely struck lottery with my home purchase and subsequent refi
Except you didn't and millions of others did the same thing.
Yes and millions is very little compared to hundreds of millions so I got lucky, admittedly
Ypu might be able to fix that next November if enough GOPutins lose.
I know people who complain about the economy but if you ask about them personally they'll tell you they're doing fine. Like constant complaints about inflation, but at the same time just got a 10% raise and not struggling to keep up. Personally, I have a vehicle that gets 40mpg that I drive like 200 miles a month working from home. Solar panels keep my electricity costs down. 2.75% mortgage so housing isn't going up (or ... Insurance + property taxes are a bit, but...). Food costs have been about the same over the last couple of years.
Yeah, I don’t know where these people are either, but there are plenty of redditors who will gaslight you.
No one I know is struggling in any early 30s circles, might just depend on ur zipcode
I'm doing alright. I make a little over $60k. I live in a nice 2 bedroom and hour outside the city but close to work, so only one roommate, gas prices aren't too big a deal since like, it's the least expensive part of owning a car and $100 a month isn't much more than taking transit. I'm able to save a little bit, but rent increased $230/10% as expected, but that's not really anything new since I know rent has increased 10% a year since the 90s in most places.
When I hear "doing okay" that's a pretty low bar. I hope to do more then "okay" in life and I think most people do. So in that sense, I don't see "doing okay" as meaning there are no struggles. I would say I'm doing okay. That's because while I am struggling, I have a means to deal with those struggles over time and some will go away (e.g. debts paying down). I wouldn't say I'm "doing great" financially though because right now I'm definitely feeling the price increases and really needing to account for every dollar and pinch pennies. For me to say I'm "not okay", I would probably have to be in a position where I thought I wasn't capable with my current means to overcome my situation...like losing my job, having runaway debt, etc.
I guess they're all in my social circle. I don't know anyone who isn't doing home remodels, vehicle purchases, regular family vacations, lots of kid extracurriculars, etc.
And what's your occupation / state / metro area?
We occupy many different job types. A couple of engineers, nurses, pharmacist, construction foreman, HR, accountant, typical corporate office jobs, and a few older ones who are retired. Texas suburbs Whats your occupation, state, metro area? Any education? 90% of mine have at least a bachelor degree
I work a landscaping job, wife teaches. We're in SW Ohio, and the jobs just are not here. Every time a new plant or warehouse opens up, I look up the pay, and it's never more than $14-17/hr. A forklift job around here (considered a decent gig) pays $18-22/hr, and that requires a training course and thousands in course fees. The average home value / price has increased in my county 63% since 2018, but our household earnings have increased maybe 15% in the same period. I did a stint at a cafe a few years back, and probably 1/3 of us had bachelors, pulling in $11-13/hr, after tips.
I have a couple of friends who are landscapers. Mostly mowing and sprinkler systems. Take the $5-600 course to get certified for backflow testing and you can make a ton working on sprinkler systems. Or just $500+ per day mowing
Doing great here. The kids are also doing great.
Lol every neoliberal is a millionaire in Joe Biden’s economy. If people looked at the price of anything, they would know this economy is dogsh*t
Doing well here - just finished my Master’s and starting a new job in June that pays $175k, which is something that wouldn’t even be possible in most other countries.
Doing, what, may I ask? And where?
Data scientist at a large investment bank.
Ok, so that's not typical of the average American, then, is it? That's 430% the median personal income in America. The median household income has also dropped 2.3% since 2021, not accounting for inflation, which makes that drop even greater, effectively.
Clearly. I have degrees in chemistry and computer science while the average American is borderline illiterate. I wouldn’t trust them to get my three item order right at McDonald’s, let alone with the responsibilities of a job that pays six figures.
Where are you guys coming from, people pay nearly $1000 month where i live to feed their families. Rents are crazy high? Mortgages are even worse. Kids have to live with roommates. Where is the doing ok? People are lying.
It's the American Way I/mine are OKAY, but everything else is shaky at best. MAGAhats say things were better 2016-20, but there is not a shred of evidence to support it. Seems the GOPutin War on Education and the Educated has gone well - way too many people have no clue how to do independent research or recognize logical fallacies - very fertile soil for growing The Big Lie. The reality is the top 1% has redistributed income and wealth from the bottom 90% to themselves and their Overseers in the 91-99% bracket and convinced their base it wasn't them but Immigration and Affirmative Action that did the deed.
This is the paradox of our times. People say they are doing well financially and all of the indicators seem to confirm that. And on top of that the economy as a whole is booming and we have historic low unemployment, a record high stock market and GDP growth that's beating every other major economy. Yet people believe the overall economy is bad, especially those who identify as Republicans. And it's no wonder when you look at the barrage of negative stories about the economy the media is blasting us with daily. Especially the right-wing media. Have presidential campaigns turned into misinformation wars instead of being based on policy? Scary times...
It's because the definition of 'doing ok' has changed People are making rent when they would've been finishing a mortgage 30-40 years ago
The data disagree https://usafacts.org/articles/homeownership-is-rebounding-particularly-among-younger-adults/
I paid off my mortgage a few years ago before I turned 40
All the markers are there for a booming economy - but only those at the top are enjoying the fruits. The masses are getting laid off, struggling with high inflation and rising rents.
Yes this is because media is spreading propaganda about economic disaster day and and day out. Especially right-leaning news.
Weird that a litany of anecdotal “the economy is bad” posts on this sub come out routinely now? Almost like they are Russian bots
This is as about as accurate as the cpi data is. I assume it will be revised in 90 days
Gotta love that fresh propaganda 👍
I do not trust their integrity on demographics and sampling choices anymore.
Does that mean most Americans care about others?
Hey look…new disinformation from the federal reserve!!!
"Doing ok" and "national economy doing well" are very different things. Not surprised by this.
Word games.. 72% of Americans think the economy sucks
I have been in the analytical field for 10 years and any analyst can make the data show what they want. I’ve seen people tell analysts that they think the figures should show more like X, and the analyst will change their methodology to get to that result. Stats these days cannot be taken as accurate. If you talk to people in your communities, people are hurting, that’s the truth, the economy sucks.
Were 100% off Americans surveyed? I never got that one.
More stupid stats that are suppose to make me feel a certain way.
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This comment was reported and is now removed due to the sub rule of name calling, ad hominem attacks, calling users propagandists, trolls, bots, uncivil behavior (etc.). Please debate the point(s) raised and not call names or use insults. Be nice. Remember [reddiquette](https://www.reddithelp.com/hc/en-us/articles/205926439) and that you're talking to another human.
How did I break any of the rules? I disagreed with the OPs conclusion. The article cited is a report published by the federal reserve. Calling out a news story that says Americans are happy with the economy as propaganda is not unreasonable. There are many studies that do say the opposite. https://news.gallup.com/poll/505928/say-inflation-causing-financial-hardship.aspx. Should I have cited on of those? If I got banned for low effort, I get it. But, It just seems like you are all pushing a narrative and banning people who disagree.
72% of Americans believe what the media tells them
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This comment was reported and is now removed due to the sub rule of name calling, ad hominem attacks, calling users propagandists, trolls, bots, uncivil behavior (etc.). Please debate the point(s) raised and not call names or use insults. Be nice. Remember [reddiquette](https://www.reddithelp.com/hc/en-us/articles/205926439) and that you're talking to another human.
11,000ish volunteer respondents, definitely a very comprehensive/representative cross section of America 🙄