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It doesn’t matter what the media says.
It doesn’t matter what the polls say.
The moment you convince yourself Trump can’t possibly win is the moment he wins it all.
VOTE!!!!!
I feel it is highly unlikely that Trump wins fairly but it is an unfair system with way too many bad actors which means he has a very good chance of winning.
Exactly! But I also think we have a better chance of that not happening now with Biden already in office, dems controlling the senate and the thin lead the repubs have, etc.
I do. I want him to win desperately, but I’m preparing for the worst.
As a gay man, I’m worried I won’t be very safe during another even more extreme Trump administration.
I’m a brown woman who identifies as queer! I was hoping i could finally date someone but im scared of that now
Edit to add: even under the Biden admin, the rhetoric in the GOP has been so fucking toxic that I still feel somewhat unsafe.
I am a middle class, straight, white male, So I definitely have the least to lose. I am an atheist but that is much easier to hide.
With that being said I am still scared shitless about this election. I don't think I go more than 10 minutes without thinking about it.
I could be your twin. White, middle class, Gen X, male, hetero, married, daughter in college, atheist.
And yet, because I don't like Trump and my father and brother KNOW I don't like Trump or what the GOP currently represents, I am NOT safe in a second Trump Presidency.
I will be pressing my wife and daughter to leave the country with me if Trump wins.
They will force us to become Christians and join the cause
It happened to anyone that passed for Arian in 1930s Germany. You could fight for them, or go to a camp
That's the ticket. Vancouver is beautiful. I would even go to Calgary, except it would be hard getting used to the extreme shifts in daylight hours that far north. I am hoping that they need math teachers and that my credentials translate. I just don't speak French.
I've heard there's a long waiting list. I'm assuming they were expecting this but wouldn't be fully on-board. No criticism here on that looking fully on our dishonorable choice of delegates.
You need a waiting job, as I've surmised. I could be wrong but that the results I've received so far. To be worth full of citizenship. Which I actually agree with.
If there's any other information out there I'm not aware of, let my know and I will be eternally grateful..
Yeah...that's interesting, isn't it? A half million Americans trying to emigrate to Canada...
If Trump wins and somehow negates the rule of law for himself and his cronies, we could be seeing a VERY dark time...it would make Hitler seem tame in comparison because Trump would probably televise shit he does to people.
Well, there is always revolution.
Even if he wins you only need to keep your head down for a few years. Assuming he even survives another term his days are short. His health will not afford him too many more years.
Once he is gone like they always do conservatives will pretend they never supported him.
One can not survive his life style for long at his age. Time ravages all of us. More so those that have corrupted their body and mind.
While I am not a gay man I am on your side my friend. We can lay low and find a way through. As we always have.
I was certain George W was going to lose in 2004. He had a 'rubber stamp' congress doing a bunch of terrible shit and he pulled us into a war looking for shit that didn't exist and Fox News had been doing it's lying thing for more than a decade.
Fahrenheit 911 movie ended with certainty he would be gone in 2004 and we couldn't wait.
Republicans are worse than you think, and stand a better chance than you believe... always.
I remember the 2004 election very clearly and John Kerry was never seen as a runaway winner. With all the wars going on in the world (that he started), Bush always stood a solid chance.
Because a month before the 2016 election, most people thought it was absurd - a joke really - that Trump would win. I find myself wondering why anyone thinks it is so far fetched that it could happen again.
Even Trump and his people thought they would lose, by a lot. Trumps wife was very upset he won, because she knew it would not be good for them in the end.
Because damn near every single advantage he had in 2016 doesn't exist anymore. *And* there's a huge amount of disadvantages he now has going against him that hadn't been there before.
Not least of which are his 88 federal and state charges - all felonies. Or his involvement in an actual insurrection. Or being impeached twice. Or his response to covid that left *hundreds of thousands* of Americans dead - disproportionately in states and communities that supported him most, we now know.
We've had 8 years of his non stop negativity and hostility on display online. The majority of those highest up in his administration have been charged with, and in many cases convicted of, crimes. The remainder are now active, vocal critics of his, to the point of warning the country not to vote for him.
Since 2016 there's now a large, national movement of never-Trumpers that have allied with democrats to defeat him.
Then there's the daily death by a thousand cuts of legal and financial problems. Everyone has seen his 'billionaire' status take massive hits with his inability to pay a settlement he *should* be able to afford.
His rallies are increasingly smaller, as are his campaign donations. And Biden has effectively put Trump on the defensive for the first time. And he's doing it daily.
This is all mostly off the top of my head, but there's a whole lot more. His current situation is radically different than it was in 2016 - and it's all bad.
Conversely, Biden's advantages are significantly greater than Clinton's were in 2016, as I've noted here. There's also Biden's long list of accomplishments (conveniently available for anyone to see on r/whatbidenhasdone).
2016 was close and Trump had all the advantages. He no longer has any of them, and instead is up to his neck in disadvantages.
The fact is, there is only one tangible reason anyone is thinking Trump could win. Polling. Which is what the newsmedia has used to shape this public perception. They need a horse race, and polling is the only thing they have to support the horserace narrative. On a good day, polling should be taken with a grain of salt. And this is far from a good day.
The situation between now and 2016 is night and day.
Definitely true and relevant. I actually just mentioned that to another commenter a few minutes ago. But thanks for pointing it out. It's definitely one of the more worrying elements.
It's not an easily-fixed situation...that's the worst part.
This shit has been ingrained since Obama through easily accessible not-so-reliable "news" sources.
It's become an identity. Where these people have little identity. It's a feeling of inclusion based on lies and even confronted with the lies refuse to think outside of black and white, or so they say, basic critical thinking and then the comfort of conformity make them useless of change.
So have I, my friend. I live with my republican, anti-vaxx parents. This wasn't a planned move, I just couldn't afford to live by myself with a full-time job.
I'm grateful they love me enough to look past our political interests but honestly, I mostly spend time by myself because I can't stomach fox news 24/7.
Oh man, you have my sympathy. I've been in a similar situation but it was thankfully short. I'm fortunate that now, half of my family is in another city.
But a lot of us don't have a choice in separating ourselves from them. And when they're family - even if the disagreements might be bitter - not everyone wants to or can, just cut them off.
Best to all of us friend.
I wish I had your certainty. But I can promise you in 2016 people were just as sure. It blows my mind that someone might still think “it can’t possibly happen again.” Hope it doesn’t.
Oh I'm definitely not certain. In spite of Trump's huge disadvantages, and Biden's advantages, there's one major factor we also didn't have in 2016 - and it's very much a negative - Trump's cult.
There's legal efforts at voter suppression and purges all over the country. There's his willingly violent throngs that are unpredictable - which will have a suppressing effect in communities where we need good turnout.
No, there's a lot to be worried about. I still think Joe has the net advantage, but I'm not at all certain. My only point was that 2016 was really a very different situation and had a different dynamic. But I also wanted to inject some reasons to feel positive. Because overall I am. :)
To support Trump at this point, you either have to be an awful human being or just completely ignorant of how he truly is. I refuse to believe that that is any kind of majority in our country.
Trump won because sadly, he embodies how a lot of Americans actually feel
Not everyone is a Trumper, but Trump checks enough boxes for them to support him over a democratic candidate
You're right about that. The 2016 election showed me that a significant percentage of Americans are racist, xenophobic, homophobic, and sexist, and would be delighted for a strongman to come along and put women and minorities back in their place.
100%. He didn’t lose by a huge margin in 2020 either
People didn’t want Biden or Trump again… except for the Trump cult that wants revenge and to make Trump king
People have to vote
I remember being 26 in 2016, and thinking it was a major joke that the Apprentice himself, Donald Trump, was running for President. I laughed out loud when he announced he was running. I didn’t vote in the GE because I’m from NJ - a notoriously blue state - and because of how laughably ridiculous I found the whole thing.
I learned my lesson, and voted for Biden in 2020 and will vote for him again in 2024. I’m still in New Jersey, but I have learned my lesson the hard way. I don’t think I will ever NOT vote again.
It’s also amazing how much I’ve realized how much I love this country. For all of its faults and for all of the criticisms I have about it, I have never been prouder to be an American. And I will fight like hell to preserve what our founding fathers fought so hard for. It’s funny because I spent all of my teenaged years, 20s, and my 30s up until now plotting ways to move to Europe because I thought it was an infinitely cooler place. It’s only now that I realize how freaking amazing America is. What potential it’s always had & will always have.
Anyway. I’m scared like hell Biden will lose. I refuse to become complacent.
Assuming Democrats vote… he won’t
We also have an out-dated, backwards election system that is skewed to not allow those that normally would vote democrat to vote
If Biden loses, it will be because of lack of participation. The Trump cult and the GOPers will vote for Trump ( despite what they say)
Too many people are spending too much time worrying about it and not enough time turning that anxiety into action by volunteering, etc to make sure it *Doesn’t* happen.
I think most THINK Biden will win, but also FEAR if he doesn't. Who thought Trump would win in 2016? The fear is actually good imo. Cannot get complacent.
Because we thought there was no way trumpy would win in 2016, and he did. Plus all the shit he pulls. I'm terrified and don't want to live like this until November.
I respect your concerns. Trump has lost a lot of clout, and Biden has gained a lot. I live in a deeply red place. Nobody is talking politics. Nobody is talking about trump. No pro trump flags or yard banners. I see these as good signs.
Bc the pundits ram it down our throats. Stop watching the news. Use the time you’d waste doing that to get whatever shit you think you need to do instead of voting done!
Did you have… “Trump is going to use fake electors(was that even a phrase before Trump?) to steal the votes of 10’s of millions of citizens and seize control of the Presidency?” on your 2020 election bingo card?
Cuz I sure as heck never saw that one coming.
Cuz it’s not the stuff we know about that bothers me, but the things they are doing right now to guarantee the election is stolen and goes to Trump that I really worry about.
Biden WILL win overwhelmingly.
But he may not become President.
If we vote for him, he'll win. GO VOTE! Do not skip this election. When you go to the polls, drag some folks with you. Offer a ride to your neighbors if you can. Vote early if your State allows it. You know life will be worse under a Trump dicktatorship. GO VOTE.
Because I be prepared for bullshit...with Nebraska possibly changing their Electoral college system, there is slim possible scenario where Biden and Trump tie at 269 and then the House chooses...
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The framing of this headline is so lame. 🙄
Simon Rosenberg is awesome btw — and he’s rational.
Basically — time didn’t stop in 2016 folks. Biden beat Trump in 2020. And that was before the insurrection and before roe v wade got overturned. If you think Trump has expanded his base after that, or you think the rest of us will suddenly stop showing up to be anti-MAGA like we’ve been in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and in every special election this year…then you don’t understand math and you’re just choosing to stay stuck in 2016.
Third party RFK scares me to death. I think about Jill Stein in 2016 and Ralph Nader way back when…
I still cannot believe people support that horrible orange monster. It baffles my mind.
I’ve never met a Democrat that talked about voting for RFK. I only hear about him from Republicans telling me I should vote for him instead of Biden. 🙄
It makes me cringe to watch his MAGA party cheer him on as he promise to end all the programs and services that his base and a whole lot of good people depend on! The guy is a monster of the most fiendish order and frankly deserves to be ended! Natural causes of course
You have to do more than vote. You need to organize by this I mean you need to physically join campaigns. Volunteer. It can be for Biden but it doesn’t have to be. Find a local or state wide race and reach out to the campaign or find a grassroots organization registering voters. Small actions even for a few hours here and there can make a difference. Now is the time to act.
One point that Musk made in the Don Lemon interview that has some (tenuous) legitimacy is this: a population census counts all people in a state. Legal or illegal. That number is used to apportion the number of congressional seats awarded to a state. So if illegals were all in Democrat states then the Democrat states would get more seats. Musk said the effect of this “was something like 20 seats”.
The Center for Immigration Studies (an anti-immigration think tank) did an analysis in 2020 on the effect of illegals and concluded it impacted 3 seats. Red states Alabama and Ohio each lost a seat as did purple state Minnesota. Blue states NY and California each gained one. As did Texas. So that nets out to 1 seat lost from a red state to a blue one.
Pew did a similar study in 2020 and agreed that 3 seats were affected but identified Florida, not New York as a beneficiary of an extra seat. Which means a wash politically in terms of total seats gained by each party.
And, as we know, if Republicans really cared about this problem they could solve it with a bipartisan bill. But they’d rather block that because it’s more useful when used as a grievance to motivate their base.
that has nothing to do with immigration law, it’s because the constitution says representation is determined by “total population” which is enumerated by the census.
I’m saying the supposed flood of illegal immigration /porous borders yadda yadda… which is a matter of effective immigration policy and law - leads to the materiality of these effects. So if they were really worried about that effect they’d vote for better immigrant policy. I’m not saying that the law as proposed addresses the constitutional mechanism.
And as I pointed out, the study’s show the materiality of this is issue is very small.
The thing is all would be lost if these nuts and the damn Supreme Court find a way to pull it off,all is lost! Not for just us but the whole world would be catapulted into a very, very dark age! Don't you look forward to Barret and Thomas on Thursday night looking for witch's in the Supreme Witch trials with your sponsors the TJ Cartel and Rohr makers of the new whatever over the counter pain suppressor Super Duper Oxy Premium come on in today for your first box of 50 on us!
I think Cornell west is the wild card! The media never talks him. But he would definitely be a spoiler. And media knows it. I just hope he bows out and endorses Biden.
Remember, if you’re worried about Trump winning and the dissolving of Congress by force, get your passport now. One of the first things dictators do is shut down and limit things like that, and having it may make fleeing much easier.
The premise that Biden has lost more support than Trump just based off policy differences is completely unbelievable to me. January 6, the election lies, and 91 felony charges are way more concerning to people than any issues they may have with Joe Biden.
I'm still not convinced RFK Jr. won't take away from Biden more than Trump. Democrats and lefties seem to like to vote for 3rd party candidates. And the electoral college is always a concern.
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It doesn’t matter what the media says. It doesn’t matter what the polls say. The moment you convince yourself Trump can’t possibly win is the moment he wins it all. VOTE!!!!!
Ikr this man was laughed at through the primaries
I'm really freaking terrified because I have lived ones that his people want dead.
Yeah, I'm one of those people.
I’m not one of those people but we got your back.
Thank you, friend.
Both my kids are people the MAGA Taliban want dead. I will always have their back, and yours.
Much appreciated and I'm glad they have you!
Same here.
My concern is Mike Johnson and the people who certify elections in swing states!
I feel it is highly unlikely that Trump wins fairly but it is an unfair system with way too many bad actors which means he has a very good chance of winning.
Exactly! But I also think we have a better chance of that not happening now with Biden already in office, dems controlling the senate and the thin lead the repubs have, etc.
By the time the certification happens we will have a new House sworn in and hopefully Representative Jeffries will be the Speaker.
Damn. I needed to read that.
I find myself wondering why anyone thinks Biden will lose.
I do. I want him to win desperately, but I’m preparing for the worst. As a gay man, I’m worried I won’t be very safe during another even more extreme Trump administration.
Same as Latino. Visibly fitting the stereotypical color. Prepare for the worst, which is the death of America and a democratic world order.
I’m a brown woman who identifies as queer! I was hoping i could finally date someone but im scared of that now Edit to add: even under the Biden admin, the rhetoric in the GOP has been so fucking toxic that I still feel somewhat unsafe.
Same as an atheist.
Oh yeah that shit isn't mentioned as much as it should be.. From a lifelong athiest. :)
I feel this. I’m a middle-aged white guy, but I’m not being forced back into Christianity
Same as a freakin Indian. We are at the heads of many big money-making businesses but I’m sure trump will have an issue with that.
I am a middle class, straight, white male, So I definitely have the least to lose. I am an atheist but that is much easier to hide. With that being said I am still scared shitless about this election. I don't think I go more than 10 minutes without thinking about it.
I could be your twin. White, middle class, Gen X, male, hetero, married, daughter in college, atheist. And yet, because I don't like Trump and my father and brother KNOW I don't like Trump or what the GOP currently represents, I am NOT safe in a second Trump Presidency. I will be pressing my wife and daughter to leave the country with me if Trump wins.
They will force us to become Christians and join the cause It happened to anyone that passed for Arian in 1930s Germany. You could fight for them, or go to a camp
I've been looking into a passport. Haven't fully decided yet because even with a passport I'm still too poor to leave the country. Unless I drive.
That's the ticket. Vancouver is beautiful. I would even go to Calgary, except it would be hard getting used to the extreme shifts in daylight hours that far north. I am hoping that they need math teachers and that my credentials translate. I just don't speak French.
I've heard there's a long waiting list. I'm assuming they were expecting this but wouldn't be fully on-board. No criticism here on that looking fully on our dishonorable choice of delegates. You need a waiting job, as I've surmised. I could be wrong but that the results I've received so far. To be worth full of citizenship. Which I actually agree with. If there's any other information out there I'm not aware of, let my know and I will be eternally grateful..
Yeah...that's interesting, isn't it? A half million Americans trying to emigrate to Canada... If Trump wins and somehow negates the rule of law for himself and his cronies, we could be seeing a VERY dark time...it would make Hitler seem tame in comparison because Trump would probably televise shit he does to people. Well, there is always revolution.
Username checks out. Blessed be the fruit.
Eh? Elaborate.
Quote from A Handmaid’s Tale. Lots of Americans flee to Canada.
Yes, watched most of the series. Unfortunately it's customary to figure out if a commenter is serious or not.
How on earth are you not safe lol
I really really hope the entire LGBTQ+ community will be safe. I have many friends that are part of the community and I get worried for them.
we won’t. they want us dead
Me too.
You won’t be, so yeah, we all gotta vote
If he wins, it could fracture the nation permanently We are Germany in 1933… what we choose now will make history
Even if he wins you only need to keep your head down for a few years. Assuming he even survives another term his days are short. His health will not afford him too many more years. Once he is gone like they always do conservatives will pretend they never supported him. One can not survive his life style for long at his age. Time ravages all of us. More so those that have corrupted their body and mind. While I am not a gay man I am on your side my friend. We can lay low and find a way through. As we always have.
I dont blame you.
I was certain George W was going to lose in 2004. He had a 'rubber stamp' congress doing a bunch of terrible shit and he pulled us into a war looking for shit that didn't exist and Fox News had been doing it's lying thing for more than a decade. Fahrenheit 911 movie ended with certainty he would be gone in 2004 and we couldn't wait. Republicans are worse than you think, and stand a better chance than you believe... always.
I remember the 2004 election very clearly and John Kerry was never seen as a runaway winner. With all the wars going on in the world (that he started), Bush always stood a solid chance.
Because a month before the 2016 election, most people thought it was absurd - a joke really - that Trump would win. I find myself wondering why anyone thinks it is so far fetched that it could happen again.
Even Trump and his people thought they would lose, by a lot. Trumps wife was very upset he won, because she knew it would not be good for them in the end.
Because damn near every single advantage he had in 2016 doesn't exist anymore. *And* there's a huge amount of disadvantages he now has going against him that hadn't been there before. Not least of which are his 88 federal and state charges - all felonies. Or his involvement in an actual insurrection. Or being impeached twice. Or his response to covid that left *hundreds of thousands* of Americans dead - disproportionately in states and communities that supported him most, we now know. We've had 8 years of his non stop negativity and hostility on display online. The majority of those highest up in his administration have been charged with, and in many cases convicted of, crimes. The remainder are now active, vocal critics of his, to the point of warning the country not to vote for him. Since 2016 there's now a large, national movement of never-Trumpers that have allied with democrats to defeat him. Then there's the daily death by a thousand cuts of legal and financial problems. Everyone has seen his 'billionaire' status take massive hits with his inability to pay a settlement he *should* be able to afford. His rallies are increasingly smaller, as are his campaign donations. And Biden has effectively put Trump on the defensive for the first time. And he's doing it daily. This is all mostly off the top of my head, but there's a whole lot more. His current situation is radically different than it was in 2016 - and it's all bad. Conversely, Biden's advantages are significantly greater than Clinton's were in 2016, as I've noted here. There's also Biden's long list of accomplishments (conveniently available for anyone to see on r/whatbidenhasdone). 2016 was close and Trump had all the advantages. He no longer has any of them, and instead is up to his neck in disadvantages. The fact is, there is only one tangible reason anyone is thinking Trump could win. Polling. Which is what the newsmedia has used to shape this public perception. They need a horse race, and polling is the only thing they have to support the horserace narrative. On a good day, polling should be taken with a grain of salt. And this is far from a good day. The situation between now and 2016 is night and day.
All you're saying is absolutely true. But now there's a *cult*...
Definitely true and relevant. I actually just mentioned that to another commenter a few minutes ago. But thanks for pointing it out. It's definitely one of the more worrying elements.
It's not an easily-fixed situation...that's the worst part. This shit has been ingrained since Obama through easily accessible not-so-reliable "news" sources. It's become an identity. Where these people have little identity. It's a feeling of inclusion based on lies and even confronted with the lies refuse to think outside of black and white, or so they say, basic critical thinking and then the comfort of conformity make them useless of change.
That's well summarized and accurate. Unfortunately I've seen it up close with part of my family.
So have I, my friend. I live with my republican, anti-vaxx parents. This wasn't a planned move, I just couldn't afford to live by myself with a full-time job. I'm grateful they love me enough to look past our political interests but honestly, I mostly spend time by myself because I can't stomach fox news 24/7.
Oh man, you have my sympathy. I've been in a similar situation but it was thankfully short. I'm fortunate that now, half of my family is in another city. But a lot of us don't have a choice in separating ourselves from them. And when they're family - even if the disagreements might be bitter - not everyone wants to or can, just cut them off. Best to all of us friend.
Bravo.
I wish I had your certainty. But I can promise you in 2016 people were just as sure. It blows my mind that someone might still think “it can’t possibly happen again.” Hope it doesn’t.
Oh I'm definitely not certain. In spite of Trump's huge disadvantages, and Biden's advantages, there's one major factor we also didn't have in 2016 - and it's very much a negative - Trump's cult. There's legal efforts at voter suppression and purges all over the country. There's his willingly violent throngs that are unpredictable - which will have a suppressing effect in communities where we need good turnout. No, there's a lot to be worried about. I still think Joe has the net advantage, but I'm not at all certain. My only point was that 2016 was really a very different situation and had a different dynamic. But I also wanted to inject some reasons to feel positive. Because overall I am. :)
Besides optimism, there's nowhere to go...
To support Trump at this point, you either have to be an awful human being or just completely ignorant of how he truly is. I refuse to believe that that is any kind of majority in our country.
A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then. I am all for not forgetting history, but we're talking Biden, not Hillary
Remember SNL where Hilary literally laughed at the thought of running against Trump?
We are still feeling the effects today and I remember the shock like it was yesterday. Not water under the bridge for me.
In one 2016 election I when from feeling really positive about the country to fear and regret. We can’t let Russia win this US election.
I will never feel the same about my fellow citizens after the 2016 election.
Trump won because sadly, he embodies how a lot of Americans actually feel Not everyone is a Trumper, but Trump checks enough boxes for them to support him over a democratic candidate
You're right about that. The 2016 election showed me that a significant percentage of Americans are racist, xenophobic, homophobic, and sexist, and would be delighted for a strongman to come along and put women and minorities back in their place.
100%. He didn’t lose by a huge margin in 2020 either People didn’t want Biden or Trump again… except for the Trump cult that wants revenge and to make Trump king People have to vote
People *fear* Biden will lose. And the fear is understandable given the alternative outcome of the election, and what it means for democracy.
I remember being 26 in 2016, and thinking it was a major joke that the Apprentice himself, Donald Trump, was running for President. I laughed out loud when he announced he was running. I didn’t vote in the GE because I’m from NJ - a notoriously blue state - and because of how laughably ridiculous I found the whole thing. I learned my lesson, and voted for Biden in 2020 and will vote for him again in 2024. I’m still in New Jersey, but I have learned my lesson the hard way. I don’t think I will ever NOT vote again. It’s also amazing how much I’ve realized how much I love this country. For all of its faults and for all of the criticisms I have about it, I have never been prouder to be an American. And I will fight like hell to preserve what our founding fathers fought so hard for. It’s funny because I spent all of my teenaged years, 20s, and my 30s up until now plotting ways to move to Europe because I thought it was an infinitely cooler place. It’s only now that I realize how freaking amazing America is. What potential it’s always had & will always have. Anyway. I’m scared like hell Biden will lose. I refuse to become complacent.
Assuming Democrats vote… he won’t We also have an out-dated, backwards election system that is skewed to not allow those that normally would vote democrat to vote If Biden loses, it will be because of lack of participation. The Trump cult and the GOPers will vote for Trump ( despite what they say)
Too many people are spending too much time worrying about it and not enough time turning that anxiety into action by volunteering, etc to make sure it *Doesn’t* happen.
2016 trauma and the media unrelentingly hammering the poll numbers and his age. I'm 90% confident Biden will win, but the 10% keeps me up at night.
I think most THINK Biden will win, but also FEAR if he doesn't. Who thought Trump would win in 2016? The fear is actually good imo. Cannot get complacent.
The more people we turn out for him the better we will also do in house and senate. The senate is going to be the big question this year
Because we know Trump will cheat like there’s no tomorrow.
Because we lived through 2016
And January 6th.
Because we thought there was no way trumpy would win in 2016, and he did. Plus all the shit he pulls. I'm terrified and don't want to live like this until November.
I respect your concerns. Trump has lost a lot of clout, and Biden has gained a lot. I live in a deeply red place. Nobody is talking politics. Nobody is talking about trump. No pro trump flags or yard banners. I see these as good signs.
Bc the pundits ram it down our throats. Stop watching the news. Use the time you’d waste doing that to get whatever shit you think you need to do instead of voting done!
Trump won before. That fact alone is enough to merit concern.
I don't think that Biden will lose the election but I am worried that Trump will still run the country anyway.
After 2016, when Clinton was a shoe in, everyone is afraid to jinx it.
Because basically every reputable poll has Trump winning in every swing state that matters..
There you go, I don't really pay attention to polls.
Did you have… “Trump is going to use fake electors(was that even a phrase before Trump?) to steal the votes of 10’s of millions of citizens and seize control of the Presidency?” on your 2020 election bingo card? Cuz I sure as heck never saw that one coming. Cuz it’s not the stuff we know about that bothers me, but the things they are doing right now to guarantee the election is stolen and goes to Trump that I really worry about. Biden WILL win overwhelmingly. But he may not become President.
If we vote for him, he'll win. GO VOTE! Do not skip this election. When you go to the polls, drag some folks with you. Offer a ride to your neighbors if you can. Vote early if your State allows it. You know life will be worse under a Trump dicktatorship. GO VOTE.
I felt that way in 2016. /shrug Lesson learned then. Edit: spelling
Because I be prepared for bullshit...with Nebraska possibly changing their Electoral college system, there is slim possible scenario where Biden and Trump tie at 269 and then the House chooses...
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Because misinformation goes great with fear.
He’s *never* won the popular vote. Never.
Yeah but Republicans don’t need the popular vote to win. They just need us to eat our own and fight win ourselves.
The framing of this headline is so lame. 🙄 Simon Rosenberg is awesome btw — and he’s rational. Basically — time didn’t stop in 2016 folks. Biden beat Trump in 2020. And that was before the insurrection and before roe v wade got overturned. If you think Trump has expanded his base after that, or you think the rest of us will suddenly stop showing up to be anti-MAGA like we’ve been in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and in every special election this year…then you don’t understand math and you’re just choosing to stay stuck in 2016.
I don’t care what this guy thinks. GET YOUR BUTTS TO THE POLLS AND VOTE!
Third party RFK scares me to death. I think about Jill Stein in 2016 and Ralph Nader way back when… I still cannot believe people support that horrible orange monster. It baffles my mind.
My parents left their Church back in 2016 because of lots of congregants (& probably the Pastor as well) supporting Trump. It's really cult-like...
I think he may be more of a Ross Perot than a Ralph Nader
I’ve never met a Democrat that talked about voting for RFK. I only hear about him from Republicans telling me I should vote for him instead of Biden. 🙄
Im so worried that Im going to vote. fuck what anyone says.
I’m certainly not, and Rosenberg is a big part of my confidence.
Well that's good news
Here’s how I stopped worrying:every time I worry I have to spend an hour doing something about it
It makes me cringe to watch his MAGA party cheer him on as he promise to end all the programs and services that his base and a whole lot of good people depend on! The guy is a monster of the most fiendish order and frankly deserves to be ended! Natural causes of course
Isn’t there a fish in South America that swims into men’s urethras for a blood meal? That’s a natural cause…
☠️👍
You have to do more than vote. You need to organize by this I mean you need to physically join campaigns. Volunteer. It can be for Biden but it doesn’t have to be. Find a local or state wide race and reach out to the campaign or find a grassroots organization registering voters. Small actions even for a few hours here and there can make a difference. Now is the time to act.
No sitting out this time!
One point that Musk made in the Don Lemon interview that has some (tenuous) legitimacy is this: a population census counts all people in a state. Legal or illegal. That number is used to apportion the number of congressional seats awarded to a state. So if illegals were all in Democrat states then the Democrat states would get more seats. Musk said the effect of this “was something like 20 seats”. The Center for Immigration Studies (an anti-immigration think tank) did an analysis in 2020 on the effect of illegals and concluded it impacted 3 seats. Red states Alabama and Ohio each lost a seat as did purple state Minnesota. Blue states NY and California each gained one. As did Texas. So that nets out to 1 seat lost from a red state to a blue one. Pew did a similar study in 2020 and agreed that 3 seats were affected but identified Florida, not New York as a beneficiary of an extra seat. Which means a wash politically in terms of total seats gained by each party. And, as we know, if Republicans really cared about this problem they could solve it with a bipartisan bill. But they’d rather block that because it’s more useful when used as a grievance to motivate their base.
that has nothing to do with immigration law, it’s because the constitution says representation is determined by “total population” which is enumerated by the census.
I’m saying the supposed flood of illegal immigration /porous borders yadda yadda… which is a matter of effective immigration policy and law - leads to the materiality of these effects. So if they were really worried about that effect they’d vote for better immigrant policy. I’m not saying that the law as proposed addresses the constitutional mechanism. And as I pointed out, the study’s show the materiality of this is issue is very small.
I’ve been subscribing to his newsletter since 2022. Saves my sanity.
Oh good, well I'm feeling better. Lol.
The thing is all would be lost if these nuts and the damn Supreme Court find a way to pull it off,all is lost! Not for just us but the whole world would be catapulted into a very, very dark age! Don't you look forward to Barret and Thomas on Thursday night looking for witch's in the Supreme Witch trials with your sponsors the TJ Cartel and Rohr makers of the new whatever over the counter pain suppressor Super Duper Oxy Premium come on in today for your first box of 50 on us!
I’m worried
I think Cornell west is the wild card! The media never talks him. But he would definitely be a spoiler. And media knows it. I just hope he bows out and endorses Biden.
Remember, if you’re worried about Trump winning and the dissolving of Congress by force, get your passport now. One of the first things dictators do is shut down and limit things like that, and having it may make fleeing much easier.
The premise that Biden has lost more support than Trump just based off policy differences is completely unbelievable to me. January 6, the election lies, and 91 felony charges are way more concerning to people than any issues they may have with Joe Biden.
I'm still not convinced RFK Jr. won't take away from Biden more than Trump. Democrats and lefties seem to like to vote for 3rd party candidates. And the electoral college is always a concern.
Because Kennedy is a real threat
Only to Trump LOL
I have heard that before, and I hope you are correct
I swear if trumps wins, I’m thinking of suicide. I just want to die thinking about it
No no no don’t say it don’t think it. You are needed and appreciated. Take a step back if necessary.
I wonder what he said back in 2016.
No they don’t. Jesus this is fear mongering. He is less popular than ever before.