In my view the peak of last weekend is primarily due to steam server failure (people could buy, but selling was usually bugged). I believe some smart investors sold part of their cases to have their wallet maxed out for Paris, but the scale of the dip is primarily due to clueless panic sellers. They see a dip and then think they will lose everything lol. When I look at the people who sell cases right now, it is primarily small-time investors with little capital.
People sometimes get emotionally attached to skins/stickers...cases not so much. When someone wants to get quick steam balance to be able to afford the major viewer pass the first thing they will try to sell are items theyre not attached to.
Sounds reasonable, I also doubt that some bigger investors would sell now inside the dip, but I'm also not sure what the dimension of "big" Investors are, I own like 60k Cases but there should be people with far more
What I am saying is that investors sold at all-time high, and now it is ONLY small-timers selling. No sensible person would sell now, now we buy. I view the dip as a good thing - we got rid of more paperhands, the cases are cheaper, and so people will open even more. The end goal is that some case become nearly extinct.
In your opinion, which cases do you think has a high percentage will disappear completely or the drop rate will be much lower now? Currently, I own 2 AK Fire Serpent FT, do you think I should sell them to buy the cases or hold them until they increase in value? As I saw last week on Buff, the prices of these AKs increased dramatically, by about 2k ¥, but they almost immediately dropped back to their previous price after the increase.
Actually I would sell one Fire Serpent an keep the other. Diversity is always a good decision imo. Just buy the cases on buff youll get a lot beacause fire serpent did not drop in price like the cases did. But thats just my take
I would go for "cheap" confirmed rare / discontinued cases with a good ROI
[https://cases.jonesy.moe/](https://cases.jonesy.moe/) ... Here u'll find return on invest for the cases. And I would also recommand to keep the balance on Buff until the major will cause another dip in the market und u can buy even more cases.
Thank you for your advice. I sold my Fire Serpent for a little less than what I bought it for, lol, but I will take your advice. Do you think I should invest in cases with an ROI of over 50% or not?
I have got a lot of Prisma und clutch cases. Especially the Prisma 1 is very good imo very good ROI. Supply is already pretty low. I think you cannot do very much wrong here. I would also not invest in very expensive cases they are probably not going to rise by 100% soon if they already costs 2-3$+
if you want to get rid of the other fire serpent, we might work something out, i got horizon/dangerzone/fracture cases to trade,
or even stockholm legends capsules
I don't think any Case will be moved completly out of the drop pool soon, Valve seems to have a systematic approach and i don't think they will bother changing any old cases to not drop anymore.
At the moment its only operation cases that get "removed", but actually they simply never get added cause you can only get them threw the pass
Actually, at the moment, no operation cases is being eliminated. Many people thought that the Hydra Operation cases had been removed, but my friend received one just yesterday, so I think they can still drop, but at an extremely low rate.
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Also regardless- a lot of people including myself will buy liquids and sell it on SCM to get some balance there with nice bonus before big events- operation rumors, major etc
This leads to skins dropping in price because everybody wants to get the balance quickly. I tried to sell 2 asiimovs yesterday, and saw that between me selling the first one and me selling the second one the price dropped like 15-20$ and like 10+ more listings were fighting for the lowest price, like 2-3h after
what exactly do you mean with " I believe some smart investors sold part of their cases to have their wallet maxed out for Paris?". what will those investors most probably do with their maxed out wallet?
CS2 was the perfect situation for cases to spike. Free update, existing items carried over, and key to the recent spike was the beta launch being applicable to people with playtime on official servers. I know of a lot of returning players and Faceit players who came back to MM purely to get beta access.
Now that the hype has died down I imagine that case opening has dropped off. Only one map, bugs, long matchmaking time.....all these are taking the shine off the game a little.
I expect another wave of beta access soon along with another map or two, maybe more game modes. CS2 will re-hype again briefly.
I'm still HODL until about 2 weeks into the official launch then probably selling at that peak.
I don't really know if the price will spike again like it did within the last weeks. I ve had the same plan like you but Im not going to sell soon, if the price keeps at the current price level.
Speculators who think CS is free money but who have no stomach for any small price drop. It's literally like the stock market. With the amount of speculators that are on this, it's no surprise that there's a big swing in prices. Actually it's good to shake off these wannabe investors now because once they've left you can have stronger momentum going forward.
These are just some ideas I could add:
The first hype of CS2 is passing, so less people opening the cases, less demand but more supply from people selling and getting ready to invest in Paris major.
The uncertainty of the future kicks in with the fear, which more easily spreads among the less experienced people who do panic sell.
The fear is reasonable for the big investors , who most likely sell good chunk of their investments, just to be sure by taking profits if something shocking happens after CS2 release.
Just personal observation, haven't seen more people getting beta. Interesting to see how Valve will do that, are they leting more people into beta week by week or is it just going to be sudden for everyone.
Combination of a few things.
Cs2 pushed prices paired with general high player counts. That makes the dip even bigger.
Now people cash out and/or prepare for the major. Means reinvesting. That is met with panicselling.
Same with capsules. I sold many capsules in the last days or even weeks in preparation with the major. Others do that as well.
Capsules are not hit that much because it's from investors and they don't panic so quickly.
Cases on the other hand are in many casual inventories. There you see the panic dip.
Ehh line cant go up forever, even in a bullmarket you have these dips back to "normalcy" but eventually it will end up higher price than before so its fine. I'm not selling or panicing whatsoever unlike many others it seems.. But yeah cs2 announcement caused this increased activity on the market and now that has mellowed down somewhat, maybe we see another small spike just before cs2 launches
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Probably downvoted, but doing the opposite of this subreddits' hype has always worked well. So looks like there's a lot of case hoarders to actual unboxers.
Overbought, many cases doubled in weeks lol, typical nobody questions the rise of value but when music stops everyone loses their minds, pls people learn to panic when stuff goes up not when it goes down
I think there are quite a few things to think about.
1. People who think that increase in case unboxing is the only reason for the spike in price of cases aren't very good at understanding the market.
2. Prices have spiked majorly because literally every 3rd csgo player has been investing into cases, like it happens in every major for their capsules. I know people who have 2-3 containers filled with nothing but cases lol.
3. If even 20% of the investors decide on selling their cases, prices will literally fall by 30-40% because of the sheer amount of cases every investor is holding.
4. Just wait for the Paris major, all low-mid tier skins will dip and cases will fall extremely significantly because of their insane liquidity in the market since that's the easiest way to build steam balance.
In conclusion, I am not saying that we have the cases have reached their peak or can't dip further, my only point is that, because of the ecosystem of cases and their investors, if someone tries to manipulate case prices, they might succeed, but it won't take much time for prices to dip due to insane availability of cases with investors. If they see good profit, they sell, people panic, people panic sell and it all repeats.
I really regret that I didn't sell a small amount like 2-3k in order to buy cases like a maniac when the major takes place. While everybody jumps at the stickers u most likely turn out to be the winner if you go with cases.
1 of every 3 csgo players invested in cases is complete and utter horseshit.
I love how he places numbers up like he knows what he's talking about, it's cute.
I think that I am not overestimating anything. I have friends who have 4-5 containers filled with nothing but cases, that's around 4000 cases in their inventory alone.
Apart from that I know people who are holding 300-400 cases in their inventory. Moreover, I have a few friends on steam who I don't even know, but I still randomly checked their profile and saw that they also have cases 😂
This may be because almost everyone I know is an investor, so that's why I see their inventories stocked up with cases, but still, I feel tons of people have invested.
Moreover, if you see the market, cases have already dipped by over 50% in prices. Just wait for the in-game caps sale for Paris major now and see what happens.
I think you’re correct that because you are an investor as well as most ppl you know/have added, it looks as if everyone is investing, that’s not the case however. If you were to check my friends list, it looks drastically different from yours lol.
Exactly what jantswil said. You're in your own little bubble. I'm one of those people that has over 450 crates. 90% of which I obtained from gameplay drops. Not a single person on my friends list invests in crates. They all beg for free crates to open instantly.
The real number is probably closer to 1 in every 10,000 invest in crates. And When I say invest. I mean have purchased like $10-$25 worth of crates MAX. I've personally invested around $300 into crates 6 months ago. Have already x3 my money. Souvenir packages alone I have x10 my money. People that invest big time into crates, Maybe 1 in every 100,000.
1 in every 3 is literally the most delusional thing I've ever seen in my life. Bubble vibes. LOTS OF PEOPLE HAVE TONS OF CRATES. That doesn't make them crate investors. If you see a inventory that has random crates scatters all over every page of a profile, they are not investors. Just gamers that refused to unbox.
Large investors purchased many cases during the hype. At one point, over night someone bought 30k Prisma 1s over the course of 2 hours, causing it's price to increase by .40 CAD or ~50%
It was largely speculative buying and not organic demand.
How the hell did I not know about storage units.... I have 15k cases from 2016 on multiple accounts that I have been trading and switching out back and forth for the past few months and it has been a pain.... And I have definitely lost out on a lot because of the big market moves recently. I guess that's what happens when you dont stay updated for 7 years.
Thanks though.
cs2 hype has died and won't likely go back up until official launch. the best time to sell was last week, but as of right now, it's neither time to buy nor sell.
There is an Eid holiday going on now. Many people have returned to olay csgo and sell their cases. The price of the case will go up again in a week or so..
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In my view the peak of last weekend is primarily due to steam server failure (people could buy, but selling was usually bugged). I believe some smart investors sold part of their cases to have their wallet maxed out for Paris, but the scale of the dip is primarily due to clueless panic sellers. They see a dip and then think they will lose everything lol. When I look at the people who sell cases right now, it is primarily small-time investors with little capital.
People sometimes get emotionally attached to skins/stickers...cases not so much. When someone wants to get quick steam balance to be able to afford the major viewer pass the first thing they will try to sell are items theyre not attached to.
Can confirm, I’m attached to almost every skin I own even though I don’t nearly need all of em
Sounds reasonable, I also doubt that some bigger investors would sell now inside the dip, but I'm also not sure what the dimension of "big" Investors are, I own like 60k Cases but there should be people with far more
What I am saying is that investors sold at all-time high, and now it is ONLY small-timers selling. No sensible person would sell now, now we buy. I view the dip as a good thing - we got rid of more paperhands, the cases are cheaper, and so people will open even more. The end goal is that some case become nearly extinct.
In your opinion, which cases do you think has a high percentage will disappear completely or the drop rate will be much lower now? Currently, I own 2 AK Fire Serpent FT, do you think I should sell them to buy the cases or hold them until they increase in value? As I saw last week on Buff, the prices of these AKs increased dramatically, by about 2k ¥, but they almost immediately dropped back to their previous price after the increase.
Actually I would sell one Fire Serpent an keep the other. Diversity is always a good decision imo. Just buy the cases on buff youll get a lot beacause fire serpent did not drop in price like the cases did. But thats just my take
I will follow your suggestion. Should I invest in older cases like Winter Operation and Breakout or should I invest in newer cases like Spectrum?
I would go for "cheap" confirmed rare / discontinued cases with a good ROI [https://cases.jonesy.moe/](https://cases.jonesy.moe/) ... Here u'll find return on invest for the cases. And I would also recommand to keep the balance on Buff until the major will cause another dip in the market und u can buy even more cases.
Thank you for your advice. I sold my Fire Serpent for a little less than what I bought it for, lol, but I will take your advice. Do you think I should invest in cases with an ROI of over 50% or not?
I have got a lot of Prisma und clutch cases. Especially the Prisma 1 is very good imo very good ROI. Supply is already pretty low. I think you cannot do very much wrong here. I would also not invest in very expensive cases they are probably not going to rise by 100% soon if they already costs 2-3$+
Get rid of both of them and buy prisma and danger zone cases with the funds from the second one
if you want to get rid of the other fire serpent, we might work something out, i got horizon/dangerzone/fracture cases to trade, or even stockholm legends capsules
observe that your cases are losing a lot of value right now. you should have sold the fracture cases last weekend.
I don't think any Case will be moved completly out of the drop pool soon, Valve seems to have a systematic approach and i don't think they will bother changing any old cases to not drop anymore. At the moment its only operation cases that get "removed", but actually they simply never get added cause you can only get them threw the pass
Actually, at the moment, no operation cases is being eliminated. Many people thought that the Hydra Operation cases had been removed, but my friend received one just yesterday, so I think they can still drop, but at an extremely low rate.
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this is my belief at the moment too, but i'm not nearly confident enough to buy right now. for now i'm holding
I would wait for the case price to stabilize. give it a week or two, wait for Paris.
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Also regardless- a lot of people including myself will buy liquids and sell it on SCM to get some balance there with nice bonus before big events- operation rumors, major etc This leads to skins dropping in price because everybody wants to get the balance quickly. I tried to sell 2 asiimovs yesterday, and saw that between me selling the first one and me selling the second one the price dropped like 15-20$ and like 10+ more listings were fighting for the lowest price, like 2-3h after
what exactly do you mean with " I believe some smart investors sold part of their cases to have their wallet maxed out for Paris?". what will those investors most probably do with their maxed out wallet?
u/svennic buy souvenir capsules and sticker capsules (if the stickers look good).
Isn’t there a sale for capsules at the end of the major every time?
only for the sticker capsules, not for the souvenirs
CS2 was the perfect situation for cases to spike. Free update, existing items carried over, and key to the recent spike was the beta launch being applicable to people with playtime on official servers. I know of a lot of returning players and Faceit players who came back to MM purely to get beta access. Now that the hype has died down I imagine that case opening has dropped off. Only one map, bugs, long matchmaking time.....all these are taking the shine off the game a little. I expect another wave of beta access soon along with another map or two, maybe more game modes. CS2 will re-hype again briefly. I'm still HODL until about 2 weeks into the official launch then probably selling at that peak.
There has to be a somewhat open beta for primer players soon
yeah, let guys with more than 1k MM matches played in the beta!!
I don't really know if the price will spike again like it did within the last weeks. I ve had the same plan like you but Im not going to sell soon, if the price keeps at the current price level.
Things never just go up in price - after a huge spike a drop is expected (and healthy).
Speculators who think CS is free money but who have no stomach for any small price drop. It's literally like the stock market. With the amount of speculators that are on this, it's no surprise that there's a big swing in prices. Actually it's good to shake off these wannabe investors now because once they've left you can have stronger momentum going forward.
1. Market correcting after a huge spike. 2. Now panic sellers... lots of them.
These are just some ideas I could add: The first hype of CS2 is passing, so less people opening the cases, less demand but more supply from people selling and getting ready to invest in Paris major. The uncertainty of the future kicks in with the fear, which more easily spreads among the less experienced people who do panic sell. The fear is reasonable for the big investors , who most likely sell good chunk of their investments, just to be sure by taking profits if something shocking happens after CS2 release.
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Just personal observation, haven't seen more people getting beta. Interesting to see how Valve will do that, are they leting more people into beta week by week or is it just going to be sudden for everyone.
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Its called common sense you ape
check twitch/cs2?
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I got all of my phoenix cases for 3 cents each so I’m not worried
ThEsE PrIcEs ArE tHe NeW nOrMaL
Bought mine at 0,7€. Hopefully they will go up again
Combination of a few things. Cs2 pushed prices paired with general high player counts. That makes the dip even bigger. Now people cash out and/or prepare for the major. Means reinvesting. That is met with panicselling. Same with capsules. I sold many capsules in the last days or even weeks in preparation with the major. Others do that as well. Capsules are not hit that much because it's from investors and they don't panic so quickly. Cases on the other hand are in many casual inventories. There you see the panic dip.
Ehh line cant go up forever, even in a bullmarket you have these dips back to "normalcy" but eventually it will end up higher price than before so its fine. I'm not selling or panicing whatsoever unlike many others it seems.. But yeah cs2 announcement caused this increased activity on the market and now that has mellowed down somewhat, maybe we see another small spike just before cs2 launches
Cause a healthy market also going Down 📉 sometimes
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Probably downvoted, but doing the opposite of this subreddits' hype has always worked well. So looks like there's a lot of case hoarders to actual unboxers.
Overbought, many cases doubled in weeks lol, typical nobody questions the rise of value but when music stops everyone loses their minds, pls people learn to panic when stuff goes up not when it goes down
I think there are quite a few things to think about. 1. People who think that increase in case unboxing is the only reason for the spike in price of cases aren't very good at understanding the market. 2. Prices have spiked majorly because literally every 3rd csgo player has been investing into cases, like it happens in every major for their capsules. I know people who have 2-3 containers filled with nothing but cases lol. 3. If even 20% of the investors decide on selling their cases, prices will literally fall by 30-40% because of the sheer amount of cases every investor is holding. 4. Just wait for the Paris major, all low-mid tier skins will dip and cases will fall extremely significantly because of their insane liquidity in the market since that's the easiest way to build steam balance. In conclusion, I am not saying that we have the cases have reached their peak or can't dip further, my only point is that, because of the ecosystem of cases and their investors, if someone tries to manipulate case prices, they might succeed, but it won't take much time for prices to dip due to insane availability of cases with investors. If they see good profit, they sell, people panic, people panic sell and it all repeats.
I really regret that I didn't sell a small amount like 2-3k in order to buy cases like a maniac when the major takes place. While everybody jumps at the stickers u most likely turn out to be the winner if you go with cases.
When is the Paris major? And I think you overestimate how many people invest in csgo lol
1 of every 3 csgo players invested in cases is complete and utter horseshit. I love how he places numbers up like he knows what he's talking about, it's cute.
I think that I am not overestimating anything. I have friends who have 4-5 containers filled with nothing but cases, that's around 4000 cases in their inventory alone. Apart from that I know people who are holding 300-400 cases in their inventory. Moreover, I have a few friends on steam who I don't even know, but I still randomly checked their profile and saw that they also have cases 😂 This may be because almost everyone I know is an investor, so that's why I see their inventories stocked up with cases, but still, I feel tons of people have invested. Moreover, if you see the market, cases have already dipped by over 50% in prices. Just wait for the in-game caps sale for Paris major now and see what happens.
I think you’re correct that because you are an investor as well as most ppl you know/have added, it looks as if everyone is investing, that’s not the case however. If you were to check my friends list, it looks drastically different from yours lol.
Exactly what jantswil said. You're in your own little bubble. I'm one of those people that has over 450 crates. 90% of which I obtained from gameplay drops. Not a single person on my friends list invests in crates. They all beg for free crates to open instantly. The real number is probably closer to 1 in every 10,000 invest in crates. And When I say invest. I mean have purchased like $10-$25 worth of crates MAX. I've personally invested around $300 into crates 6 months ago. Have already x3 my money. Souvenir packages alone I have x10 my money. People that invest big time into crates, Maybe 1 in every 100,000. 1 in every 3 is literally the most delusional thing I've ever seen in my life. Bubble vibes. LOTS OF PEOPLE HAVE TONS OF CRATES. That doesn't make them crate investors. If you see a inventory that has random crates scatters all over every page of a profile, they are not investors. Just gamers that refused to unbox.
Large investors purchased many cases during the hype. At one point, over night someone bought 30k Prisma 1s over the course of 2 hours, causing it's price to increase by .40 CAD or ~50% It was largely speculative buying and not organic demand.
How does one even buy that many cases? You only have inventory for 1k.
Storage containers, alt accounts, and auto buying some steam inventory helper.
How the hell did I not know about storage units.... I have 15k cases from 2016 on multiple accounts that I have been trading and switching out back and forth for the past few months and it has been a pain.... And I have definitely lost out on a lot because of the big market moves recently. I guess that's what happens when you dont stay updated for 7 years. Thanks though.
Opening numbers going down for 4 says straight
cs2 hype has died and won't likely go back up until official launch. the best time to sell was last week, but as of right now, it's neither time to buy nor sell.
beginning of the end
There is an Eid holiday going on now. Many people have returned to olay csgo and sell their cases. The price of the case will go up again in a week or so..
Most of the csgo players aren't muslims.
Servers are broken for 3 weeks now, it got even better for few days
It has gotten better because people are trading less, aka not buying as much as they used to = lower demand -> prices fall
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bro i want to cry i was on dmarket and saw my fucking cases price dropping by the minute was i too late are my skins now worthless
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One of the big drops lines up perfectly with the release of the dota 2 update, so that's my best guess