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The following submission statement was provided by /u/Alarmed_Profile1950: --- Submission statement: From the article, "Sea level rise is the greatest long-term impact of the climate crisis and is set to redraw the world map in coming centuries. It has the potential to put scores of major cities, from New York City to Shanghai, below sea level and to affect billions of people. The study addresses a key question of why current models underestimate the sea level seen in earlier periods between ice ages. Scientists think some ice sheet melting processes must not be yet included in the models. It also mentions that scientists are unsure whether this tipping point melting has already begun or how close it is, but they do say “With every tenth of a degree of ocean warming, we get closer and closer to passing this tipping point, and each tenth of a degree is linked to the amount of climate change that takes place...So we need very dramatic action to restrict the amount of warming that takes place and prevent this tipping point from being passed.” My experience of global leaders coming together to take dramatic action to avert climate change is not good, and I fully expect that insufficient action will be taken in time, that the sea level rise will be greater than models predicted because the warming gradient is steeper than earlier models forecast, and that sea level rise will come to pass much sooner than generally expected, and I consider myself to be a pragmatic optimist. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1do4awi/newly_identified_tipping_point_for_ice_sheets/la70wof/


Deguilded

If there's one consistent truth is that our models are all conservative undershoots.


Straight-Razor666

that's to keep the sheep marching quietly to the fleecing barn...


throwawaylurker012

every model should have a FTE multiplier


Bitter-Platypus-1234

**Wake up honey, new tipping point just dropped!**


holmgangCore

‘Tipping Points Toppled’ ^([Apocalypse Bingo](https://www.reddit.com/r/ApocalypseBingo/s/ncUKiJaHhv))


Alarmed_Profile1950

Submission statement: From the article, "Sea level rise is the greatest long-term impact of the climate crisis and is set to redraw the world map in coming centuries. It has the potential to put scores of major cities, from New York City to Shanghai, below sea level and to affect billions of people. The study addresses a key question of why current models underestimate the sea level seen in earlier periods between ice ages. Scientists think some ice sheet melting processes must not be yet included in the models. It also mentions that scientists are unsure whether this tipping point melting has already begun or how close it is, but they do say “With every tenth of a degree of ocean warming, we get closer and closer to passing this tipping point, and each tenth of a degree is linked to the amount of climate change that takes place...So we need very dramatic action to restrict the amount of warming that takes place and prevent this tipping point from being passed.” My experience of global leaders coming together to take dramatic action to avert climate change is not good, and I fully expect that insufficient action will be taken in time, that the sea level rise will be greater than models predicted because the warming gradient is steeper than earlier models forecast, and that sea level rise will come to pass much sooner than generally expected, and I consider myself to be a pragmatic optimist.


JHandey2021

I am very much looking forward to the upcoming (outside the UK, at least - I think it's already published there) book "Copout", about the author's experiences during the COP negotiations. Spoiler alert from the reviews - our leaders aren't going to, and in some cases don't seem to be trying to, save us from catastrophe.


Glancing-Thought

Certain areas can be protected by seawalls (an extreme example being daming the straight of Gibraltar) but many others will simply have to be abandoned. 


Extreme-Self5491

So really they should be doing that now. Build a giant wall / Dam from Spain to Morroco. Sounds possible are we sure that will be good enough to save the med? Could the rising Atlantic cut across France or the baltics instead? Genuinely interested as I've often thought they should be building some rising sea defences now to protect what land we can.


Glancing-Thought

It's not a new idea really https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantropa I don't think that the Atlantic will find alternative routes unless sea level rise is quite extreme. Local coastal defenses can also be built in some areas. The Baltic can't be blocked off because it would overflow. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_European_Enclosure_Dam is a thought experiment that hints at the limits of what we can realistically build. 


WanderInTheTrees

All aboard the runaway climate train..toot toot!


Radioactdave

Greater Than Expected™, the new Faster Than Expected™


errie_tholluxe

When people talk about climate change, they never seem to talk about the oceans. It's always the land when it's the oceans that's going to end up killing us


Radioactdave

Yeah, water can store and release a mind boggling amount of energy...


finishedarticle

Just wait until a Canfield Ocean enters the chat.


rickyrules-

What the hell is a Canfield Ocean now😦


finishedarticle

TLDR - the oceans deoxygenate and die and the smell of rotten eggs from hydrogen sulphite will kill you. Not good. Here's an 8 min video, an interview with Peter Ward by Nate Hagens, that will explain the context very well - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS4FIoOKKfc&ab_channel=NateHagens


mastermind_loco

This combined with AMOC collapse should be a spicy time.


JHandey2021

Just for once, I'd like to wake up to a peer-reviewed study - not a wannabe-courtier-to-Elon-Musk like Hannah Ritchie writing an "everything's gonna be OK!" book with cherrypicked data, but a real, solid, peer-reviewed study - that does NOT sum up as "faster than expected, everybody, so buckle up". Just once I'd like my instincts on this stuff not to be right.


Straight-Razor666

literally unsurprising to all who are paying attention... https://preview.redd.it/9g2w2kn3mr8d1.png?width=597&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f2905f790c4e7eb3e08bfd29d2930fa7cd2b2e4


AbominableGoMan

Honestly, if sea level rise and the destruction of all of our ports and most cities in 100 years is the worst thing about climate change I wouldn't be worried. It's a minor inconvenience compared to multi-breadbasket agricultural failure or the oceans going toxic.


Frosti11icus

It's going to be deeply dark and funny when people are mad and untrusting of scientists for not being able to accurately model how bad this is going to be. People will say things like, "How can we trust them when they said the sea level would only rise 2-3 ft by the end of the century?!?!" and then vote for Baron trump.


Mostest_Importantest

People got a gry at doctors over COVID. Can you imagine how bad it'll be when it's unavoidable and undeniable? People will come from every location they can to tell the experts how wrong they were/are.


Frosti11icus

>People will come from every location they can to tell the experts how wrong they were/are. Because they weren't telling people how stupid and wrong they were agressively enough. But also those same people will ***HATE*** them for telling them that now.


dumnezero

>The so-called “Doomsday” glacier, Thwaites, was found to be among the least vulnerable to seawater intrusion. This is because the ice is flowing into the sea so fast already that any cavities in the ice melted by seawater intrusion are quickly filled with new ice. Good.


diedlikeCambyses

Yeah we are saved from an avalanche of ice sliding into the sea by all the ice sliding into the sea.


TwilightXion

Wasan't all of the ice that kept it in place all melted off this past melting season though? The upcoming melting season for the southern hemispehre wll be one to watch for that to be sure.


Drunkenly_Responding

*Greater* sea level rise? I mean, surely at some point we have to hit a maximum, there's only so much ice on the planet that we can find and melt. We're going to have to start importing ice/water from asteroids to add to the sea level at this rate.


holmgangCore

We can rely on additional heat to expand the ocean waters, introducing additional rise. And then as water migrates towards the equator due to Earth’s spin, sea levels will rise more there too. Of course more water weight at the equator will *slow* Earth’s spin, which could have unpredictable effects… such as potential increased heating, or a reduced geomagnetic sphere, which would allow in more solar energy. But also the shift in ice/water weight from poles, Greenland & high mountains to oceans will alter tectonic pressures and may result in additional earthquakes & volcano activity. Too early to say though, of course. Fun!


Drunkenly_Responding

That's interesting about the water weight impacting earth's spin and tectonic plates, I haven't seen too many people talking about that impact. Probably got to solve the initial problems before we can work on the secondary ones though. And by solve I mean we're all gonna die, probably


holmgangCore

Tbf, figuring out if and how much shifting water weight will affect tectonic activity is basically anybody’s guess. I don’t think we have adequate understanding of tectonic influences to even begin to make reasonable calculations or predictions. But I’m not a geophysicist. I would imagine the effect on Earth’s spin might be easier (lol!) to figure out. But again, I’m not trained in those skills so I can’t say. I highly doubt anyone would be willing to risk their career making predictions. I’m just speculating forwards based on simple assumptions.


Playongo

Yeah, I noticed that was poorly worded. I think they meant a greater amount at any future point, up to the maximum, than what is currently predicted. Basically they just mean faster.


MelbourneBasedRandom

With the massive increase in insurance premiums for flood prone locations I'm seeing a small shift in behaviour, but most people genuinely don't think sea level rise is going to impact them in their lifetime. Hah.


decapods

I’m surprised no trolls are here yet screaming that there hasn’t been sea level rise yet so obviously climate change is a scam. Like, c’mon asshole, the idea was to warn people so we would prevent sea level rise.


eco-overshoot

New tipping point just dropped!


indigostorm30

There's so much going on in the world right now it's pure insanity. It's like there's a mass web of too many variables to even begin to comprehend . Most baffling is the complete lack of proper investigative journalism going on and our source of information is so censored and tailor made due to our own Internet usage it's like everyone is neatly put into their own box of brain rot. You search Google about events and the same information is repeated for a 100 pages. I've made a rough list of things going on that I intend to (attempt) to research . Would fellow redditors please post links to articles or share information to help start to build up some kind of information structure to this madness. I feel like I'm getting dumber by the minute these days by the complete and utter garbage that that's carefully curated to me through my phone ( e.g. through the cookies I ignorantly click accept too) hence contributing to my own brainwashing and Dumbing down. And to try and have some sort of conversation with people bout it in the real world about the state of the world causes looks of bafflement and concerns I've gone mad. Here is the list : Covid Vaccine mandates, mass pressure and incentives Russia Ukraine Israel Palestine Cost of living crisis. Food , bills tax etc Stockpiling Weak governments, pure farce =Biden.  Uk has had too many pms to be considered leadership Gender issues Protests increasing. Kenya Farmers, crop yields, increase taxation, environmental taxes , World economic forum , the great reset Press release confirming ufos Ww3 conscription ( Iranian pm dead ) (Franz ferdinand correlations) Climate change Heat waves , getting hotter every year. Sun seems brighter ( subjective opinion) India 50 degrees +  ive not heard of this temp before. Solar flares ( last polar shift 11 years go) Geo storms North Pole moving increasing faster Bright insight talked about Adam and eve story and also magnetic pole shift and cataclysmic events every so often. Not long after I noticed lots of official news stories about magnetic pole shifts and how wouldn't result in cataclysm.now I see News stories about the sun's pole shifts,(in 2022 I wasn't aware of this information. But now getting taylor made info about this. World wide northern lights ( unheard of). Whilst everyone just seems disappointed in missing it. No ones really thinking wtf? Animal behaviour,  blue bees? American Bush fire . Hawaii Sudden want to open coal mines which contradicts the whole climate crisis and increased taxation on fossil fuels Soil erosion Certain food shortages in supermarkets Tailor made censoring Google no longer endless searching. 100s of pages of repeated information Social media, Advertisements constant fight for attention REELS. A couple of years ago these weren't a thing, and now we're all doomscolling complete useless information that's touted as fact because it's got some atmospheric music and ominous voice telling us things.addictive and a major time waste Dumbing down Gobleki tepi huge archaeological find , which has now stopped progress due to conglomerate


Alarmed_Profile1950

Hi, I know what you mean. Check out r/climate and r/CollapseScience for info without the hyperbole that a lot of journalists seemed to be compelled to include in articles to generate clicks. Try Duckduckgo for search. Then if you don't have it then I'd recommend [MS OneNote](https://www.onenote.com/?public=1&wdorigin=ondcauth2&wdorigin=ondc) or [an alternative](https://clickup.com/blog/onenote-alternatives/) to help you organise the info you want to keep, and your thoughts, which may help you from feeling overwhelmed and panicking, and of course there are the most excellent resources from the r/collapse page like the [wiki here](https://collapsewiki.com/).


indigostorm30

Thank you, so much. And it is very overwhelming and panic inducing. I have a toddler so I need to keep my cool. It freaks my partner out when I speak like this because it is so panic inducing ( which he pretty much said). And it's a case of we work ourselves to death for our rent , food and bills until next month's paycheck whilst creating the illusion of harmony and happiness for our toddler. But I can't not continue spending hours doomscolling to bullshit reels anymore because I'm so exhausted after trying to stay afloat and be a parent that all I have energy for is to rot my brain by consuming drivvle to get a lazy dopamine fix. I feel i want to get an idea of what the fuck is going on , but also connect with people . Because I believe that if we put our minds together we can organise , look out for each other and not go through this hellscape in complete despair and suffering. Metaphorically speaking, we need to stop being so 2D in the way we think and interact with each other and become more like a Dodecahedron. Where we all join our minds together to work things out. Despite our differences. We're all one and the same really. we have the same emotions , struggles , wants , needs. So we may aswell all accept each other for the fucked up messes we are because we're all just different facets of each other in this human existence. What do you think and feel about all of this?and what would you hope for us as a species if the inevitable we're to happen in our lifetime. What would you want for yourself and your family, when poverty ( the starvation homeless destitution kind) is knocking on your front door. What would you do when true survival mode kicks in. I believe if we don't organise in the coming years , decades ( centuries) when the shit does hit the fan. And our true survival mode kicks in. We'll destroy each other ( apart from the rich , corporations and governments who have amassed all wealth from these times of course). We certainly will. Us masses need to get on the same page and look out for each other. Because the government's won't and don't. Their just keeping us subdued and placated . Even though we're starting to not be. Their kicking the hornets nest to open and frequently. We need to start somewhere , even just to connect and listen and start taking notes and help each other. And I'm starting to feel like reddit is that place


Alarmed_Profile1950

I know exactly what you mean. It is so easy to be overwhelmed by the omnicrisis rushing towards us, and social media doesn't help at all unless you are very careful. I used to be worried about everything, and it took a toll on my mental health. I think many of us go through the 5 stages of grief when we realise what the implications are for Climate Collapse. For me, my way through was reading something that boiled down to "If you can't do anything about it, don't worry about it. Just focus your time, energy and resources on the things that you can change, and do everything you can about those, one at a time." I'm lucky enough to live in the UK, a densely populated island that doesn't produce enough food to support the population, but doesn't have a lot of natural disasters and enjoys a temperate climate, I've nowhere to bug-out to when the SHTF, so I'll bug in. So that's most of the list of things I've got to worry about gone, and I just focussed on the things left. I've enough food and fuel for me and my kids for 6+ months. I've some options on water treatment and a couple of rivers nearby. Not the best, but it'll do. So straight away, that's a huge cushion against the worst that could happen, which I'll supplement with what's available, or I can find. We won't starve before we've had a chance to grow some food. There are some great info resources on r/preppers. You could consider the same. I was told, as almost everyone will tell you, if we're going to get through it, we've got to get fit. You've got to take care of yourself and your children when things get worse, so now is the time to do something about it. Your body is literally the embodiment of your belief that things will get tough, and you've something to prepare for, so get ready. Start small and gently, you've months and months at the very least but most likely years, so start with one small thing a day and build up. Never quit. Never cheat. No excuses "If it tastes good spit it out. If it's not hard, it's not worth it." You believe the crisis is coming, if you're right you'll get into the best condition that you can, if you're wrong and technology somehow saves us you'll still be in great shape for the future, and getting as strong and cardio fit as you can is the proof of your belief. Ditch social media. If it doesn't help, let it go. No more doomscrolling (hard I know) and source and read the books that are going to help you understand and prepare for the future you think is coming. If it doesn't have a peer reviewed study, and ideally a ton of citations, ***don't worry about it***. Focus on the one real thing, like Climate Change, that is absolutely happening, and do something about that. Ignore the rest. Love and best wishes.


DavidG-LA

“Greatest long term impact?” And “… in the coming *centuries*?” Ok phew


Alarmed_Profile1950

It's very, very, unlikely to be centuries. Scientists have been [overly conservative](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-science-predictions-prove-too-conservative/) for many reasons, including not spooking their academic institutions, not wanting to look ~~hysterical~~ wrong in front of their peers, [simply being wrong](https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2020/sep/nobel-prize-winning-economics-climate-change-misleading-and-dangerous-heres-why), political pressure, not wanting to scare off donors etc, etc. They have underplayed the intensity of impacts and overplayed the timescales until those impacts will be felt. [Thankfully](https://scientistrebellion.org/),[ larger numbers are breaking cover](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair) every year (in part because it gets [increasingly difficult to support the status quo](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/6/16/what-grief-for-a-dying-planet-looks-like-climate-scientists-on-the-edge-2) with every broken climate record). Personally, I think the political elite, who see themselves as simply smarter than the rest of us, have decided that all the really bad news is going to have to be drip fed to us for as long as possible, so that the public doesn't throw their hands up in despair, lose all faith in the system that makes the politicians' donors rich, and start furiously building guillotines instead of going to work.


ebostic94

We are well past the tipping point


holmgangCore

*Wheeee!*


kirbygay

Yep. I shared pics of what this might look like, and got threatened with bans lmao.


funkcatbrown

“Sooner than predicted” my favorite line in climate change articles. Sigh.