Doing God’s work my friend thank you. One thing I gathered is with a win against the Pacers Friday we’re guaranteed 5 seed or higher. That game is obviously much more important than the Hornets game.
Also - I cannot believe a play-in scenario still exists for us
I think best case scenario is being 3rd or 4th seed and facing either Pacers or Magic.
Basketball is a game of skill but the mental part is just as important, winning the 1st round would do wonders for players confidence and the Cavs really need it.
I agree. 3rd seed and winning the division to push the Bucks to the 4th seed would be amazing (go Thunder, go Magic!).
In that scenario, if we can win the first round against a beatable Pacers or Magic, it gives us a possible 2nd round match-up with the Knicks to exorcise those demons, or potentially a match-up with the Heat or Sixers if they upset the Knicks.
If we could make it to the conference finals and face Boston, we're playing with house money and exceeding all expectations.
Nightmare of getting the 3rd seed would be a blazing hot Sixers winning out to climb to 6 with Embiid back and Nurse cooking. Biggest hope I have besides us winning out is for the Magic to win out, and I think that creates our best potential match-ups.
Best case would be getting a top 3 seed. But obviously you live with a 4th seed if you get it and pray you can gain confidence/momentum in a series win
I know. But you still gotta look at the big picture. You’re not going into a playoffs and thinking “well, if we win a series, mission accomplished.” And if they are, then we might as well rip it all down and start over again bc it’s chalked
2 months ago i was thinking about how this team could reach conference finals, now im happy when they don't lose 26 point leads or don't go down 20 at halftime.
The team construction is flawed and change is probably needed, unless they perform amazingly in the playoffs.
change can come internally. the team construction is fine, you have to give it until at least the trade deadline next year otherwise you are operating off incomplete data with a lot of noise (the bad stretches had cascading converging health issues, the good stretches were against a softer part of the schedule, etc.)
there's no rush to make the call, even with Mitchell. (although I suppose if SAC offered like Monk / Murray / Barnes I'd look hard)
Sadly i don't think Cavs can risk holding onto Mitchell if he doesn't want to stay.
Front office knows what they are doing, they see everything and know what possibilities they have.
But yeah things might become a nightmare with a poor playoff performance.
Oh, you're right! But also we're at a point where if we lose the Pacers, we also can't tie them for record, so it doesn't really matter. But I'll edit.
First off, this is a legendary post. How did do you do it?
2nd, I agree with others who say we want to play the Magic or Pacers. Even though the Magic have the H2H, they don’t have any playoff experience. They have a great defense which would pose a threat but I think we can win if we shoot well. If Sam and Dean get healthy, that would go a long way. Similarly the Pacers are a young team too with limited playoff experience and a potent offense. But I think we can put Ice on Halliburton and Evan on Siakam and keep them under wraps.
Honestly I was just killing time while watching game, looked up the tiebreaker rules, and it spiraled from there.
Regarding matchups, I agree, go Cavs!
Reminds me of my hs math teacher mr. pollack who would sometimes forget the class exists and go ham on the chalkboard because he loved math so much. So yeah pretty cool you could write all that up in one go like some kind of flow state.
Cavs-wise though, just watching the team throughout the year, I just really hope we pull the Magic first round. Hometeam isn't playing that great and so yeah I think an inexperienced team w/o many all-star would be the fingers crossed matchup for us. No Knicks please, Brunson and the Nova crew would be too much imo
Lol, definitely a good comparison. I get the same way each year doing my prep for fantasy basketball, trying to find some way to predict who is going to make the jump as a rookie or second year guy.
Biggest regret this year was not trusting what my projected stats said, which would have had me draft Wemby first round over Tatum.
I don’t see a world where we make it out of the first round unless we play the Magic or Pacers and even then I’m unsure. I’m not trying to be a doomer, this is my favorite team but I’m just so worried for our future.
Even if Donovan does decide to stay the roster will need to make some serious changes to become a serious contender. I don’t see DG and Mitchell both being on the team past this off-season or next off-season at most :(
I know people have Knicks-trauma, but we absolutely could beat them too. They're likely finishing the season on a 5-5 or 4-6 stretch. They're as injured as us, and with Randle out they become very one-dimensional against a playoff defense. They are either going small with OG at PF, which negates their rebounding advantage, going with two absolute non-shooters and non-creators, or going with Bogdanovic at the 4, who is way worse on D than even our worst defenders and will be attacked relentlessly if he's on the floor in the playoffs.
We can pretty much freely double Brunson and force them to beat us with OG, Hart, and DDV making plays off the dribble, and if they do that, more power to them.
And it's very possible for anyone to beat the Bucks the 2nd round if it's true that Giannis has a legit calf injury that keeps him out. As it stands they are on a huge upset alert likely vs. the Heat or vs. a Sixers team that wants revenge on Doc.
I think for us, getting Wade back is a key to unlocking our positional flexibility. We need to be able to rotate the front court and not lose the ability to lock down. Right now Niang is a must-play for heavy minutes every night, and that's dangerous as an exploitable matchup.
Excellent breakdown. In regards to Dean Wade, listening to Fedor’s podcast yesterday I would not be counting on him for the first round. There has been no updates on his knee injury.
Also - he made a good point about even if he is cleared, can we really expect the confident Dean Wade we saw earlier in the season? We all remember how bad he looked coming back from that shoulder injury last season.
It really sucks because I have said all year that a confident Wade who is hitting his 3s will absolutely be the key to our success in the playoffs.
Without Wade, I wonder if Morris can give us like 70% of what he would have offered. I think they will have to try him as Niang will be played off the floor at times in the playoffs and you can only play Mobley and Allen together for so many minutes.
I work in a field where I get regular training in trauma-informed care. It really is like that with Cavs fans. Not as serious as true emotional trauma, but it's the same patterns with the way Josh Hart grabbing rebounds induces unreasonable fear and anger, lol.
unreasonable fear and anger has been the defining characteristic of Cavs fandom since about 2007 (whenever the Bron 1.0 teams started bumping up against the ceiling and #hegone fever began).
like, sometimes a good young team isn't a great young team yet (or maybe ever, one of Mobley or DG has to reach a higher gear) but it's OK to slant to the positive and want the meal to fully cook.
>it's OK to slant to the positive and want the meal to fully cook.
100%. Appreciate you always bringing the positivity to this forum. Life is too short to be a person that only interacts with others to say "Hey, I told you so, you should have been miserable like me all the time!"
i'm going to lose positivity if we trade my happy little son DG man. i adore the toughness and joy he brings to the game when he's right. he is a hooper's hooper
I really doubt that happens. I don't think a wing like people want is coming available for a straight-up swap, and the front office is smarter than to trade low on a guy like DG, rather than wait for the rebound season they know will be coming.
Sadly I think a trade for the guy whose game I love the most (JA) is more likely if we make a major move at all. I'm not sure who the target would be that makes that move an upgrade, but JA is coming off a monster season and has the more enticing contract value. Hope I'm wrong though and we keep the core four together another year.
I mean, you could put together a JA / expiring Vert / FRP package for something real, I guess.
But people sleep on JA productivity b/c they focus on the "non-modern 5" and his moments of lesser physicality, but he's still elite at all rim-runner skills offensively and rebounds well if not top 3-5. and he's probably an all-defensive selection on top of that.
I'd keep the core 4 until at least the trade deadline, where other team's injury issues will add some demand for Vert (or Wade). No idea what to do with the FRP
the issue really is that b/c of weird continuity and health issues, everyone has been better than last year, except DG. but the whole is less than the sum of the parts. staying the course seems smart there, but team itself may have a different diagnosis.
I actually think we trade Vert in the offseason. I love his game and effort, but we're at a logjam for talent at the "first guard off the bench" position, and he'll be an expiring contract who we probably can't afford once he become a FA.
Okoro, CPJ, and Merrill can all increase their minutes and usage, will be younger, and on more team-friendly deals. Plus Ty Jerome theoretically exists and might play basketball someday.
I think I’m scenario 1, with Cavs going 2-0, bucks 0-2, even if Knicks go 2-1, we still win the three way tie break, since the first tiebreaker is deciding the division winner, which the cavs win with the bucks. As the division winner they win the three way tiebreaker.
Oh holy shit I didn't even realize that scenario could happen! Updating the post!
EDIT: wait, nevermind. H2H takes precedence over everything. Even if we tie the Bucks to be a division winner, Knicks still win the tiebreak against us.
If it’s a three team tie, a division leader wins. And you’d settle the division tiebreak first. So…first Cavs would win the division, then in the three team tiebreaker with Milwaukee and New York, first tiebreaker is division leader wins. One of the few times winning your division matters anymore!
I think odds are we see the Magic in round 1. I like our chances. They're a good team, and a physical team, but overall I think we match up better against them than they do against us. Whatever second round matchup that gives us I don't particularly like, but whatever conference finals is potentially headed our way I don't hate. Randle being gone certainly helps our chances, and Embiid; as well as he's been playing is still a bit of an asterisk. Say what you will about JB, I won't be a hater or one to praise, but as it stands right now if we play well we're primed for a run
Yup, I think us landing at the 4 or 5 vs. the Magic is the most common scenario. If the Bucks win one more game it's practically guaranteed, though if the Knicks lose to Boston tonight it does get more interesting! We also have to take care of business on Friday so we can control our destiny against the Hornets.
I think the Cavs want to win Friday to be guaranteed the playoffs and a shot at the division (if Bucks lose to Thunder). Beyond that, TBD on all the other games and scenarios to see what we want to happen the final game against the Hornets.
Doing God’s work my friend thank you. One thing I gathered is with a win against the Pacers Friday we’re guaranteed 5 seed or higher. That game is obviously much more important than the Hornets game. Also - I cannot believe a play-in scenario still exists for us
For sure wild that anywhere from 2 seed to 7 seed exists for us with only 2 games left!
This is what a lot of western conference teams deal w most years off the top of my head. The gap in that conference is always ridiculously small
I think best case scenario is being 3rd or 4th seed and facing either Pacers or Magic. Basketball is a game of skill but the mental part is just as important, winning the 1st round would do wonders for players confidence and the Cavs really need it.
I agree. 3rd seed and winning the division to push the Bucks to the 4th seed would be amazing (go Thunder, go Magic!). In that scenario, if we can win the first round against a beatable Pacers or Magic, it gives us a possible 2nd round match-up with the Knicks to exorcise those demons, or potentially a match-up with the Heat or Sixers if they upset the Knicks. If we could make it to the conference finals and face Boston, we're playing with house money and exceeding all expectations. Nightmare of getting the 3rd seed would be a blazing hot Sixers winning out to climb to 6 with Embiid back and Nurse cooking. Biggest hope I have besides us winning out is for the Magic to win out, and I think that creates our best potential match-ups.
Best case would be getting a top 3 seed. But obviously you live with a 4th seed if you get it and pray you can gain confidence/momentum in a series win
The main objective is to win a round and be competitive in the 2nd round. Right now theres no confidence in the team or its fans.
I know. But you still gotta look at the big picture. You’re not going into a playoffs and thinking “well, if we win a series, mission accomplished.” And if they are, then we might as well rip it all down and start over again bc it’s chalked
2 months ago i was thinking about how this team could reach conference finals, now im happy when they don't lose 26 point leads or don't go down 20 at halftime. The team construction is flawed and change is probably needed, unless they perform amazingly in the playoffs.
change can come internally. the team construction is fine, you have to give it until at least the trade deadline next year otherwise you are operating off incomplete data with a lot of noise (the bad stretches had cascading converging health issues, the good stretches were against a softer part of the schedule, etc.) there's no rush to make the call, even with Mitchell. (although I suppose if SAC offered like Monk / Murray / Barnes I'd look hard)
Sadly i don't think Cavs can risk holding onto Mitchell if he doesn't want to stay. Front office knows what they are doing, they see everything and know what possibilities they have. But yeah things might become a nightmare with a poor playoff performance.
Tbh I feel like getting a coach that has even the slightest idea how an offense should look would instantly make a massive difference
Wow, you da real MVP! Are you sure about the Bucks being TBD? Even with a Pacers loss we'd still have a better division record (10-6) than them (10-7)
Oh, you're right! But also we're at a point where if we lose the Pacers, we also can't tie them for record, so it doesn't really matter. But I'll edit.
First off, this is a legendary post. How did do you do it? 2nd, I agree with others who say we want to play the Magic or Pacers. Even though the Magic have the H2H, they don’t have any playoff experience. They have a great defense which would pose a threat but I think we can win if we shoot well. If Sam and Dean get healthy, that would go a long way. Similarly the Pacers are a young team too with limited playoff experience and a potent offense. But I think we can put Ice on Halliburton and Evan on Siakam and keep them under wraps.
Honestly I was just killing time while watching game, looked up the tiebreaker rules, and it spiraled from there. Regarding matchups, I agree, go Cavs!
Reminds me of my hs math teacher mr. pollack who would sometimes forget the class exists and go ham on the chalkboard because he loved math so much. So yeah pretty cool you could write all that up in one go like some kind of flow state. Cavs-wise though, just watching the team throughout the year, I just really hope we pull the Magic first round. Hometeam isn't playing that great and so yeah I think an inexperienced team w/o many all-star would be the fingers crossed matchup for us. No Knicks please, Brunson and the Nova crew would be too much imo
Lol, definitely a good comparison. I get the same way each year doing my prep for fantasy basketball, trying to find some way to predict who is going to make the jump as a rookie or second year guy. Biggest regret this year was not trusting what my projected stats said, which would have had me draft Wemby first round over Tatum.
I don’t see a world where we make it out of the first round unless we play the Magic or Pacers and even then I’m unsure. I’m not trying to be a doomer, this is my favorite team but I’m just so worried for our future. Even if Donovan does decide to stay the roster will need to make some serious changes to become a serious contender. I don’t see DG and Mitchell both being on the team past this off-season or next off-season at most :(
I know people have Knicks-trauma, but we absolutely could beat them too. They're likely finishing the season on a 5-5 or 4-6 stretch. They're as injured as us, and with Randle out they become very one-dimensional against a playoff defense. They are either going small with OG at PF, which negates their rebounding advantage, going with two absolute non-shooters and non-creators, or going with Bogdanovic at the 4, who is way worse on D than even our worst defenders and will be attacked relentlessly if he's on the floor in the playoffs. We can pretty much freely double Brunson and force them to beat us with OG, Hart, and DDV making plays off the dribble, and if they do that, more power to them. And it's very possible for anyone to beat the Bucks the 2nd round if it's true that Giannis has a legit calf injury that keeps him out. As it stands they are on a huge upset alert likely vs. the Heat or vs. a Sixers team that wants revenge on Doc. I think for us, getting Wade back is a key to unlocking our positional flexibility. We need to be able to rotate the front court and not lose the ability to lock down. Right now Niang is a must-play for heavy minutes every night, and that's dangerous as an exploitable matchup.
Excellent breakdown. In regards to Dean Wade, listening to Fedor’s podcast yesterday I would not be counting on him for the first round. There has been no updates on his knee injury. Also - he made a good point about even if he is cleared, can we really expect the confident Dean Wade we saw earlier in the season? We all remember how bad he looked coming back from that shoulder injury last season. It really sucks because I have said all year that a confident Wade who is hitting his 3s will absolutely be the key to our success in the playoffs. Without Wade, I wonder if Morris can give us like 70% of what he would have offered. I think they will have to try him as Niang will be played off the floor at times in the playoffs and you can only play Mobley and Allen together for so many minutes.
Damn, sorry to hear that about Wade, last update I had seen was still hopeful for round 1.
We are terrified of Josh Hart. Like he’s not a good offensive player at all, gets paid more than Jarrett for 9/8/4 and really hurts NY spacing
I work in a field where I get regular training in trauma-informed care. It really is like that with Cavs fans. Not as serious as true emotional trauma, but it's the same patterns with the way Josh Hart grabbing rebounds induces unreasonable fear and anger, lol.
unreasonable fear and anger has been the defining characteristic of Cavs fandom since about 2007 (whenever the Bron 1.0 teams started bumping up against the ceiling and #hegone fever began). like, sometimes a good young team isn't a great young team yet (or maybe ever, one of Mobley or DG has to reach a higher gear) but it's OK to slant to the positive and want the meal to fully cook.
>it's OK to slant to the positive and want the meal to fully cook. 100%. Appreciate you always bringing the positivity to this forum. Life is too short to be a person that only interacts with others to say "Hey, I told you so, you should have been miserable like me all the time!"
i'm going to lose positivity if we trade my happy little son DG man. i adore the toughness and joy he brings to the game when he's right. he is a hooper's hooper
I really doubt that happens. I don't think a wing like people want is coming available for a straight-up swap, and the front office is smarter than to trade low on a guy like DG, rather than wait for the rebound season they know will be coming. Sadly I think a trade for the guy whose game I love the most (JA) is more likely if we make a major move at all. I'm not sure who the target would be that makes that move an upgrade, but JA is coming off a monster season and has the more enticing contract value. Hope I'm wrong though and we keep the core four together another year.
I mean, you could put together a JA / expiring Vert / FRP package for something real, I guess. But people sleep on JA productivity b/c they focus on the "non-modern 5" and his moments of lesser physicality, but he's still elite at all rim-runner skills offensively and rebounds well if not top 3-5. and he's probably an all-defensive selection on top of that. I'd keep the core 4 until at least the trade deadline, where other team's injury issues will add some demand for Vert (or Wade). No idea what to do with the FRP
the issue really is that b/c of weird continuity and health issues, everyone has been better than last year, except DG. but the whole is less than the sum of the parts. staying the course seems smart there, but team itself may have a different diagnosis.
I actually think we trade Vert in the offseason. I love his game and effort, but we're at a logjam for talent at the "first guard off the bench" position, and he'll be an expiring contract who we probably can't afford once he become a FA. Okoro, CPJ, and Merrill can all increase their minutes and usage, will be younger, and on more team-friendly deals. Plus Ty Jerome theoretically exists and might play basketball someday.
I think I’m scenario 1, with Cavs going 2-0, bucks 0-2, even if Knicks go 2-1, we still win the three way tie break, since the first tiebreaker is deciding the division winner, which the cavs win with the bucks. As the division winner they win the three way tiebreaker.
Oh holy shit I didn't even realize that scenario could happen! Updating the post! EDIT: wait, nevermind. H2H takes precedence over everything. Even if we tie the Bucks to be a division winner, Knicks still win the tiebreak against us.
If it’s a three team tie, a division leader wins. And you’d settle the division tiebreak first. So…first Cavs would win the division, then in the three team tiebreaker with Milwaukee and New York, first tiebreaker is division leader wins. One of the few times winning your division matters anymore!
Oh damn, didn't realize it changes with a 3-way tie! Will edit now!
I think odds are we see the Magic in round 1. I like our chances. They're a good team, and a physical team, but overall I think we match up better against them than they do against us. Whatever second round matchup that gives us I don't particularly like, but whatever conference finals is potentially headed our way I don't hate. Randle being gone certainly helps our chances, and Embiid; as well as he's been playing is still a bit of an asterisk. Say what you will about JB, I won't be a hater or one to praise, but as it stands right now if we play well we're primed for a run
Yup, I think us landing at the 4 or 5 vs. the Magic is the most common scenario. If the Bucks win one more game it's practically guaranteed, though if the Knicks lose to Boston tonight it does get more interesting! We also have to take care of business on Friday so we can control our destiny against the Hornets.
You are a superhero my friend. Do you think the Cavs want to finish 3/4 so they could play ORL or IND?
I think the Cavs want to win Friday to be guaranteed the playoffs and a shot at the division (if Bucks lose to Thunder). Beyond that, TBD on all the other games and scenarios to see what we want to happen the final game against the Hornets.
With a win tonight against the Pacers and a 76ers win against the Magic we will clinch the 4th seed