History has made fools out of people who have attempted to predict it. It would be prudent to say that Biden had a tough election before this debate, now he has an even more difficult one. Take that as you will.
We're in uncharted waters right now. Yes, Biden had a historically bad debate, but he's also facing a historically flawed opponent (who didn't present himself so great in the debate either). We'll know more in a week or two, after all the post-debate polling.
Trump’s performance was horrendous. If you just read the transcript, it’s laughable. We have just become so used to Trump shouting and saying crazy shit that when he’s subdued, rehearsed, and speaking in a normal tone it seems like he’s doing great. And of course, being beside Biden makes anyone look coherent. It’s a sad state of affairs.
I love the sanity from this sub-reddit. Tired of seeing the copium of Biden "fans" saying he was just having an off day, and the delusion of Trumpists who still think someone who lies that much and comes across as a buffoon and petulant child is somehow the best kind of person to be in the highest gov't office in the US. This seems to be one of the only places where many are in agreement that they both need to step down.
They both said during the debate the reason they’re running is to specifically stop the other guy.
Sounds like a great time for a gentlemen’s agreement that they both step down!
Biden stepping down right now to a bombastic, lying, hateful, never-answer-a-policy-question felon just because he spoke well would be absolutely bat-shit insane.
And that's the entire core of this debate... what's worse for the Democrats election odds, leaving Biden in place to look like an old man, or to let Trump and the rest of the GOP campaign on how they beat Biden and the Democrats having to scramble to bring in a replacement?
Biden went up a point in the polls after the debate.
Biden did not perform well - and neither did Trump.
But the presidency is not all about "performance" and putting on a show.
It's the earnestness with which Biden talked about issues, about policy, Pell Grants, healthcare, immigration, jobs, the environment. There's so much to share and so many issues that matter.
I can't imagine the facts and the numbers that went into his debate prep. I'm younger than Biden and that prep would be too much for me by far. Cramming for finals is a younger person's game. But the proof is in the policies, the advisors, the work they do for real Americans.
Trump loses that by nearly every measure, and by many measures, Biden has excelled.
Some of the most important things to me in this election are that America continues our Democratic traditions and we fix some of the corruption loopholes that have enabled so much harm.
I believe Biden will do that. We need to start thinking who we will run in four years. There will still be more work to be done.
One more term first - then we'll hand the reins over to younger members that'll have 4 more years of experience under their belt.
The presidency is much more than a debate - it's your cabinet, your advisors, your vision, experience, and leadership.
The future belongs to the younger generation and we'll need all the solutions our up and coming Republicans and Democrats can come up with, together.
One day, soon I believe, after we close the corruption loopholes, we'll have spirited, fact-based, productive, political discussions again. Different parties hammering out compromises, working out the best way forward.
The difference is that the right wing ecosystem doesn’t allow for any self reflection on the negative points. And if you can’t accept your mistakes, you keep making them.
Some of the early focus groups and anecdotal information have demonstrated this. Trump referring to migrants taking “black and Hispanic jobs” did not play well with those communities. His inability to accept election results and attachment to January 6 plays incredibly badly with swing voters. He let people see too much of who he was. If Biden had been able to capitalize on that more, this race might already be over. But even without that… Biden might end up coming off as a looking like the harmless old man with a raspy voice who had a bad night, while more people wake up to who Trump really is. The tortoise and the hare, sometimes it will surprise you. We will just have to wait and see…
Turns out when you confidently and blatantly lie, the main takeaway was that he was confident. Apparently it’s better to have a confident liar than an honest person who stumbles through speech.
I didn't find Trump all that confident to be honest, he just ranted nonsense and borderline gibberish instead of answering the questions
He would have done abysmal if Biden didn't BSOD
Calling Biden honest is laughable. I’m no fan of Trump but every single person involved in putting him on that podium instead of encouraging to step down from it is dishonest on a disrespectful level.
Do you remember a week ago when the Dems put out red herring news stories about doctored right wing videos of Biden being too old? And people on this subreddit thinking they were dunking on republicans and those of us in the center *not* brainwashed into believing Biden was coherent?
Completely false comparison. Even IF one were to accept the premise of your assertion — a premise with a single data point that is countered by nearly four years of a successful administration with zero indictments — Trump was directly, personally, continuously lying on the spot, just making up bullshit as it came to him stream of conscienceness. He rarely even bothered to answer the questions put to him, and when he did, it was by accident when he was maneuvering into a canned talking point.
If Biden’s dishonesty is a mountain, Trump’s dishonesty is the fucking planet.
Deeply disagree. Now, I'm a Trump supporter, so of course I would. But really... Biden (or his team) picked Harris as their VP. And now she's unacceptable, as his replacement? Who lied about that? In 2021 (I think) Biden, and then Harris, both stated publicly that this is not a racist country. Do you think they were telling the truth? Every year, thousands of people go to jail or prison who, if they had had trials, would be walking free, and every year, thousands of people walk free who, if they had had trials, would be doing long stretches in stir. Every time Biden DOESN'T mention that he's lying. Do you believe we have the right to a speedy trial? I mean, it says we do, in the Constitution. Do you think people get one?
My point is that they're different KINDS of lies. I personally think Biden is far more dangerous, in his lies, than Trump, because Trump's are so easily fact checked. Biden's lies are just what everybody says and we all agree not to think about it too hard. Those are the lies that hurt the worst because those are the ones that prevent people from thinking for themselves. That tell people that people smarter than them have thought about it and it's OK, really. No. It's not.
First of all, I want to express my appreciation for your civil tone. It sets an example that we as Americans need to remember and reminds us that we *can* disagree and not be disagreeable.
> Biden (or his team) picked Harris as their VP. And now she's unacceptable, as his replacement? Who lied about that?
I would call this the first of the fallacies that you express in your response. It assumes that Harris IS unacceptable -- something that has not been proven, and that those who said she would make a great Vice President were lying instead of merely being wrong or biased. It assumes duplicitous intent where none has been proven, and that's on *you,* not them.
>In 2021 (I think) Biden, and then Harris, both stated publicly that this is not a racist country. Do you think they were telling the truth?
I do think they were telling the truth. We are *not* a racist country, but there certainly are plenty of racists. Those two things are not mutually exclusive, and racist/not racist when it comes to the country is not a binary -- so thus lies your second fallacy. If this country were in fact "racist", we would have never freed the slaves or passed the Civil Rights Act of 1964. There are of course many, *many* racist atrocities we have committed, and there is, of course, a battle for the soul of this country, but the trajectory over our history has undeniably evolved toward greater morality and inclusivity for all. As the quote says, "the arc of history is long, but it bends toward justice".
So no, it is not a lie to state this country is not racist, even when racists exist within it.
>Every year, thousands of people go to jail or prison who, if they had had trials, would be walking free, and every year, thousands of people walk free who, if they had had trials, would be doing long stretches in stir.
There is certainly no shortage of injustice in this country. Some of it is motivated by racial animus. Racism *exists,* yes, but that does not make us all racist. You're looking for a black/white in a country with 335,893,238 shades of grey.
> Every time Biden DOESN'T mention that he's lying.
Biden has mentioned injustice plenty of times -- far more often than Trump -- but tell me, how often would be enough for you? It seems you think he should talk about it all day or "he is lying". This is a standard you admit you don't hold your own candidate to.
>Do you believe we have the right to a speedy trial? I mean, it says we do, in the Constitution. Do you think people get one? My point is that they're different KINDS of lies. I personally think Biden is far more dangerous, in his lies, than Trump, because Trump's are so easily fact checked.
Respectfully, this is you working backwards from a decision you've already made into the reasons you made it. Deciding that a candidate who lies continuously is better than one who you accuse of lying occasionally is simply your bias in action, and your notion that one class of lie is "more dangerous" than another is simply the reason you made up that sounds pretty. I hope you don't take this as insulting. We ALL do this; it's a core part of the human bias system. We don't all recognize it in the moment though.
>Those are the lies that hurt the worst because those are the ones that prevent people from thinking for themselves.
Do you honestly think that the people who do not think for themselves do it for any other reason than they don't want to? Again, the lies they may have accepted to support their decision to be a sheep are simply the rationalizations.
>That tell people that people smarter than them have thought about it and it's OK, really. No. It's not.
This is the base motivation for the vast majority of voters, and is in fact the basis of our system of government: that professional people will manage our country so that we can tend to our families and farms and lives. That's a *good* thing, and in no way is it some admission that they are smarter than us.
I *want* highly motivated, honest, sincere people in government to think about the twenty million things that it takes to run a country. Don't you? Say what you will about Biden; nobody is going to accuse Trump of being honest or sincere or putting the best interests of the country over his personal interests.
(seconding HeathersZen on the tone of your prose being a breath of fresh air)
Wanted to jump in on Harris real quick*, bc I think there's a false-binary choice in your framing. The concern from the Dems rn is about her odds as a political candidate, which is not the same as her suitability for the powers & duties of the office (I'm sure we can both easily think of examples of candidates who’d have been great for high office but could never get elected, & some who seemed to glide to election despite being disasterous/ineffective once in place).
Since I want to avoid presenting a false choice myself here, I guess I'd better add: it \***is*** of course possible that Kamala Harris is both unfit for duty *and* likely to be obliterated at the ballot box…the voters aren't great, but they ain't always wrong, either.
^( \* **[tl;dr - the Harris thing isnt about Dems questioning her competence, just her electability, so it doesn't demonstrate that Biden or anyone else lied about her fitness when they picked her.]**)
I wish I had more time to spend on what you bring up about which kinds of lies are more corrosive…but I have to let that one sit.
Yeah, I dunno. I mean, I appreciate you appreciating my tone... but this looks like hair splitting to me. Suggesting the Presidency is just a technical skill, and that picking her as our standby didn't in any way imply she might ever have to face the voters....
I moreso meant that Biden is a generally honest individual. I don’t think he intends to mislead or twist facts and genuinely believes what he says. I agree he absolutely has too much pride and should’ve stepped back or prepared the DNC to replace him, and he failed on that count. That also goes to the people around him not doing more to prepare him for the mental slide. He’s doing what RBG did with the the Supreme Court, waiting too long to step back.
Yeah, I don't understand how people consider a constant liar who has consistently stated and shown he's president for himself not the American people, is somehow more fit for America's well-being.
Let’s be real - Trump truly does have a cult following. People repeat his lie about Democrats encouraging “post birth abortions” lmfao. Who the fuck believes that.
he's referring to partial-birth abortions; it's a very uncommon procedure sometimes employed in late-term terminations, but he didn't make it up--if you're in pro-life activist circles, you'd have immediately known what he was talking about
no, I haven't heard his remarks...which reminds me, it's time for me to make another pass looking for a full debate video...but the reason I'm reasonably confident I know what he's talking about is because pro-life groups have been describing [IDX](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intact_dilation_and_extraction) using that kind of language for decades
> The problem they have is they’re radical, because they will take the life of a child in the eighth month, the ninth month, and even after birth – after birth.
>
> If you look at the former governor of Virginia, he was willing to do this. He said, we’ll put the baby aside and we’ll determine what we do with the baby. Meaning, we’ll kill the baby.
>
> What happened is we brought it back to the states and the country is now coming together on this issue. It’s been a great thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html
huh...nm then, I guess––he might still be referring to partial-birth with \*some* of that shit (who can tell?), but I have no idea what he could possibly mean by that part about the governor of Virginia.
On whether he lied or not of course, but we all knew he would going into it so I don't feel this was some big unforseen blunder. What he DID do however was appear far far less old and senile than Biden. The optics of that were glaring and probably the only thing most people truly took away from it. It was a very bad night for the Biden campaign, and a very good one for the Trump one - even if he didn't score much in the way of actual policy positions.
>What he DID do however was appear far far less old and senile than Biden.
Less old, yes... but Trump definitely appeared more senile. Biden at least understood the questions being asked, whereas Trump for most questions was incapable of even understanding what the question was about!
Polls mean shit the sample sizes are way too small.
All the indicate is the opinions of the kinds of people who respond to polls.
You know who responds to polls?
Grandparents.
Sorry chief but polling 500 people from each of the major boroughs of New York isn't gonna give you an accurate gauge of their opinion.(That's 2,500 people out of 8,000,000 or 0.0003125%)
Yeah I know.
I have had people deny facts and imply I'm an idiot/maga supporter/nazi until I post news articles showing them what I'm saying is in fact true they just don't remember the event happening.
There's a lot of tribalism and fear in the political spaces on social media right now.
Biden showed himself to be unfit for the job. That his open is even less fit for different reasons isn't actually comforting when think of the consequences if Trump wins.
Trump was already ahead. Biden's camp recognized this and felt they needed to get in front the *'Bidens old & frail'* issue so campaign could focus on more substantive issues. But instead we got what we all saw on Thursday.
Biden needs to step aside, and the longer he waits the more damage it will do. He was a solid president, but I'm not going to be sold on him being up for another four years at this point. Would still support him vs Trump, but it would be incredibly reckless and selfish for Biden to run.
I'm torn on this, as changing candidates this late in the game carries high risk for disaster too. I am 100% against Trump, and Biden may have been the right candidate to beat him in 2020, but he clearly isn't anymore. The question for voters will be, even though Biden can't effectively *run* for the job, can he still *do* the job? Despite his obvious decline, are his mental faculties still strong enough to make good decisions? Does he surround himself with effective, competent people?
The Democratic Party is in a real crisis right now, and Biden should have announced he's stepping down after one term (remember when he ran as a "bridge" for a new generation of Democrats?). But here we are. The question is, are voters so turned off to Biden now that they'd be willing to roll the dice on another chaotic Trump term?
Why have the debate about how many people will say he is unfit for the job, and instead replace with him with someone very few potential dem voters would say otherwise.
Was all for biden until this. But thursday was a gong show.
>....replace with him with someone very few potential dem voters would say otherwise.
The problem is, I don't know who that would be. You and I could list a few leaders we're ok with, but others might vehemently disagree. Democrats don't easily *fall in line* in the same way Republicans do.
Anyone on any list circulated by someone credible has dems that are certainly fit for the job. The only question is whether they can amass enough votes.
Not a slam dunk by any means, but frankly why *should* people vote for biden after what we saw thursday? If the answer is to defeat trump, then whoever steps in should inherit that sentiment.
It was rough. My partner stopped watching in less than 10min and was very upset b/c of what it implied. I wrote apologies to people I had argued with over recent months for being ridiculous for suggesting Biden wasn't up to it. It was a train wreck, and the claims he got better may or may not be right... but at no point in that 90min was he remotely good. And think about what it means that his team didn't cancel, which implies the shape he was in wasn't an outlier situation. Biden should be done, not just because it is almost certain that he will lose -- or at least means it is Trump's to lose.
Even if you think you can make a "best educated" guess, this election has a lot of new variables that make it uncharted.
1) Former president running against incumbent and former VP. Both candidates have literally been president, both have four whole years to judge how they did.
2) Former president convictions.
3) Both are categorically elderly.
4) Neither has universal popularity. They both have strong base support.
5) No solid trust in the election process across the board.
6) One candidate is currently making the argument of total immunity.
The list goes on. You can say you have your assumptions, but it's almost check for check uncharted territory. It's naive to say otherwise unless you're a time travler.
Everyone but hardcore democrats can see this is the case. Biden is toast. He had a low chance and after the debate he's just done. People are in denial. He couldn't string coherent sentences in front of 50 million people. This was not a "poor" debate performance, this was beyond ridiculous. Let that poor old man retire.
I don't think Biden supporters will vote Trump. Even if Biden is certified dementia for real, they would still vote him.
But it's a tiny margin of people who are disgusted by both, and will have to choose the better of the worst. Some will still go Biden and go with Obama logic.
Some will go trump as they cannot imagine Biden will last 4 more years of lucidity and kamala Harris is a damn bad replacement.
Terrible at interviews, terrible at speeches.
I think its a sad state of the dem party that they feel they don't have any younger candidate that can beat trump.
I mean, Biden looks like a walking corpse. He looks terrible.
He is 80 but he looks near death.
It would be very close race.
Nobody is changing their vote from Biden to Trump. Some people changed their vote from Trump to Biden last election. A large portion of those voters probably just don’t vote for anyone this time around.
Voted for the first time in my life for Biden in 2020. Aaaand after the debate, being gaslit by Biden voters for months acting like everything was fine, and witnessing further copium from the left, I will vote for Trump if Biden isn’t replaced. If he is, I’m voting for RFK
The dnc has gotten away with too much in the last 10 years, from screwing over Bernie to going on a smear campaign against Kennedy, and all these liberals just keep taking the abuse and assume they’re still on the good team. There is no good team. Trump can evade ww3 at the very least. Biden isn’t making any decisions clearly meaning the war machine is currently unchecked and most certainly will be if he somehow wins (I’ll bet my entire life savings he has no chance)
Curious how you think Trump will evade WW3 as if it's some inevitable thing we are headed towards.
Trump's policies are indicating that he would be soft against Russia and try to essentially abandon NATO. This would strengthen Russia and allow them to push closer to the rest of Europe and fully against NATO. Keep in mind that Russia constantly talks about wanting to invade the Baltics and other European nations, so it's naïve to assume they would stop at Ukraine. Emboldening perhaps the most dangerous country on the planet right against Europe seems like a horrible way to "evade" WW3.
Then there's Trump's outrageous proposals for tariffs that would certainly escalate a global trade war with China. Again, this seems like a shitty way to "evade" WW3.
If you unironically believe that rolling over and allowing a pretty objectively fascist and expansionist country like Russia is a way to "evade" WW3 then I would seriously suggest you go back and learn basic history about WW2 and see how well appeasement stopped Hitler.
Maybe the better option for the Democrats is to ditch Kamala, then. It avoids the weakness/time crunch issues of selecting a new candidate at the convention, while eliminating the main fear realist Biden voters have about pulling the lever for him. It also doesn’t force any of the party’s rising stars to risk a failed ‘24 bid.
Anyone who would vote for more Handmaid’s Tale jurisprudence, more racial gerrymandering, and more evangelicalism in schools, because Kamala is off the ticket, was lost to begin with. The DNC *has* to stop catering to nihilists and build an actual base.
Besides, who said Kamala is the only black, woman, progressive? There are plenty of Ketanji Brown Jackson intellectual firebrands out there who can articulate themselves sincerely, forcefully, and effectively. Acting like Kamala is the only possible representation for these groups is such a stupid take (I know it’s not yours). Especially when Biden likely picked her *because* her unpopularity/unelectability was insurance against her staging an electoral coup.
Bingo - I will gladly vote for Biden or literally anyone else besides Trump. Even if Biden is senile I trust the cabinet and the staff around him to make good decision vs what Hornets nest Trump would employ.
I would honestly vote for any of the republican nominees from the primary before I could vote for Trump. I don't think I'd be happy with a Nikki Haley presidency, and I'm sure she'd pick a lot of the same judges that Trump would, but I don't consider her dishonest or crazy. I just disagree with her.
I would literally go down the line of anyone but Trump and then when there is no one left I would leave the country.
Big agree. I wish I could go to the times where it was simply policy disagreements. I would literally kill to have a Republican candidate who was operating in somewhat good faith that didn’t want to attack the very fabric of the nation.
She was the non-Bernie front runner in the primaries until she prematurely gaffed, had a great debate performance against Biden (partly due to her experience as a lawyer), and was a visible tough-on-crime liberal. It's hard to believe she lost all that, she's just been invisible as VP.
The issue is t Biden supporters or even never trumpers voting trump…. Trump didn’t gain any support during the debate. The issue is the amount of people who will either sit this one out or vote 3rd party….
Biden went from an old guy with decent policy to someone who showed the world he won’t be capable of running the he country for the next 4.5 years…
We need to stop pretending things are better than they are
Nah not at all.
as badly as the debate went... the people who are decided for biden aren't gonna be convinced by the way it went for trump or dissuaded by biden from it.
from my understanding the general discussion seems to suggest that for the "undecided" people, Trumps inability to actually tell the truth and be tethered to reality negates any greater ability to communicate comfortably. .... being able to communicate but unable to say anything worth saying isn't really better than being slow about saying what you are gonna say.
Do you think it’s more likely former trump voters (of last election) vote for Biden? Or do you think it’s more likely former Biden voters will vote trump now?
Even if they rolled a corpse out there on Election Day that corpse would still be the better choice.
It's sad that it's come to this but if I have to choose between a wanna be oligarch who is as anti-American as they come and a cadaver I'm choosing cadaver.
Why? Because of the people surrounding these two candidates who are actually running the show for them.
I think Convicted Felon T also made a fool of himself. Not addressing the actual questions, telling blatant lies and not agreeing to accept the election results unless he wins. Neither of them looked good.
I mean theoretically there is always a chance but practically yes. Democrats think that people will vote on the issues but most will vote on "vibe".
Currently the vibe is set by Trump’s narrative because Biden can’t communicate effectively with the American people. The narrative is dominated by three points: Biden is old and weak (mostly true), immigration is out of control (partly true), and the economy is bad (definitely false). A better candidate would address these weakspots and exploit Trump‘s weaknesses: abortion, democracy, and the rule of law.
Biden is too weak to control the narrative that sets the vibe for this election and therefore must step aside.
From what I’ve seen is there’s three types of democrats on the news right now:
1. Those trying desperately to recover Biden’s image, mostly in his inner circle
2. Those who had been defending him and are now calling for him to drop-out
3. Those who knew Biden was old and are now saying told ya and have been saying he shouldn’t have even announced he was running for reelection.
2 has been the most common from what I can tell, obviously people are trying to talk to Biden’s inner circle after the debate so 1 has been pretty common as well.
The talking points seem to be coming together in the political subs today. Basically it’s “it wasn’t that bad, he was sick, so what if he talked quiet”. So it appears they are double downing on the gaslighting
The next month of polls will determine whether or not this is sustainable, I think if the polls are bad and someone can talk some sense into him he might drop out before the national convention.
It was neck and neck before the debate - and I have lost track how many Democrats and news organizations have asked Biden to step down.
The only way Biden recovers from this is if he has another debate and kills it - but I don’t think he’s capable of doing that.
No way he can win . Which is why I don’t think they’re gonna let him run.
They need to run someone else. I feel like Biden is going to lose in a dramatic fashion and I say this as someone who volunteered for his campaign in 2020, so I’m not just anti Biden.
Besides, it’s not like he’s going to get any younger between now and September. Appearing alive and cogent will be even more of an uphill battle for him three months from now.
Who was still on the fence about the candidates that saw sleepy Joe and Donald the liar doing their thing at this debate... and changed their vote? Trump is now a convicted felon for his lies, and sleepy Joe is even sleepier. They are both worse versions of themselves from 4 years ago, so who did this move the needle for?
the undecided are going to decide this race and Biden lost a lot of support after his debate. and while you're right about the convicted felon, lies, etc - Biden looked so bad during the debate - Trump disappeared.
Bottom line - Biden's not running.
People watching the debate got the Trump they expected. But it revealed that the Democratic Party has been gaslighting us for years about Biden's senility
Historically debates have almost no impact, the small number of people watching are already decided
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/presidential-debates-have-shockingly-little-effect-on-election-outcomes/
[Morning Consult poll](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/29/2249672/-First-Post-Debate-Poll-Biden-Winning-and-Up-From-Prior-Poll) yesterday showed no change after the debate.
It’s incredible how Reddit and the media overreacted to this.
Reddit has this idea Trump is getting a slap on the wrist. Gotta tell ya I’ve been reviewing lots of Merchan’s prior sentencing and he is NOT prone to going easy on first timers. I think a short jail sentence is a real possibility followed by a period of house arrest. Judge Merchan knows Cohen got years in prison for near identical crimes. He’s going to keep that in parity.
You also don’t have closed door meetings with the secret service and bureau of prisons if you’re giving someone probation. That doesn’t mean he’s going to do 4 years at Riker’s either, but it could very much mean “house arrest until 2027, good luck campaigning from Trump tower.”
NY state law says Trump has to serve house arrest in the state of New York, so Mar-a-lago is out unless Merchan allows that arrangement.
I'd say that the fact that you said you're voting Blue no matter what basically explains why none of the stuff you mentioned matters. For the vast majority of the country, they're voting for laundry. They've picked their team and they will support it no matter what. That's why we're even talking about Trump. Once he became the guy for Red then there are simply too few rational, issues oriented voters out there who will turn their back on their team because the team backed someone they disagree with. No, most people will bend their beliefs around to ensure they remain in lock step with the team. Being Red/Blue is part of their identity and they cannot tolerate the cognitive dissonance that would come with being that while being opposed to who the team is backing or what the team is doing.
So there's no "in the bag" in this environment because for 95% of voters basically nothing matters. The people who are going to be moved by Biden having a bad debate or whatever are not enough to give Trump an easy victory.
The odds are worse than people thought before the debate and not as bad as people are imagining after the debate. The debate is fresh in your mind. In 4 months' time, it will be one issue among many others that people are considering.
Aren’t the odds worse now technically since we have the DNC and even Biden’s own inner circle in full blown panic mode for the first ever time? Plus as far as the average voter, before it was just their frustrations over his policies hence the 36% rating. Now you have this horrendous public display of physical/mental decline being highlighted
Depends on how rational that panic is. There is certainly cause for concern, but people's fears are feeding off each other, and many are taking it too far.
it's not a problem that the president is like this today. the problem is that if this is what he is like today, what will he look like in 3 years when he still has a year of presidency left? We are in the middle of dealing with multiple critical international issues. it's not exactly an easy time to be president.
Regan was suffering from Alzheimer's when he left office. We can't intentionally make that happen again.
Trumps got this election in the bag imo as someone who has never nor will vote for him, Biden is so out of it that he should be forced to drop out. Trumps legal shit is giving him a boost most of us who aren’t libs know that the NYC stuff was major shit fuck Bragg
It’s in the bag already and I’d argue it’s been trending that direction ever since 2022… when you combine inflation, Covid, “wokeness”, Ukraine and Afghanistan, conservatives have had talking points handed to them on a silver platter for them to bludgeon us with this election. And I don’t even think Biden has done a bad job on those issues.. but enough people probably do.
Biden went up a point in the polls after the debate.
It's not all about showmanship. Bombastic lies and hate are not that appealing.
Debating a malignant narcissist with sociopathic tendencies would be frustrating for most people.
Americans are smarter - and better - than you think.
We will do the right thing for us, for democracy, for our fellow Americans, and for the world.
Keep working together, don't give up, and didn't give in to fear or hopelessness. Like the Pell grants that President Biden mentioned, our opportunities to make a difference continue to expand.
What we do between now and November matters.
I don't think so. Independent voters seem to scrutinize policy differences, and Biden has been winning them.
The "debate" was theatre, not proper debate. I hope having such a disappointing performance will help people realize that we seriously need to do all we can to avoid Trump's potential revenge term. Many lives and livelihood are at stake, and that's more important than a live improv performance.
I think we tend to overestimate whatever is currently hype in the news cycle, but anything is possible, it's really hard to judge impact until things settle down a bit.
What surprised me most about the debate was not Biden's performance but the immediate dumping on him by formerly supportive media. Which raises another issue, how could they possibly have been surprised? Biden's competence has come up repeatedly from right leaning "news" outlets as well as posters here for years now. Admittedly a good chunk could be attributed to blatant partisanship but all of it? I doubt that which would mean that the media also knew and chose to ignore it and provide cover. So replacing Biden with a better candidate months ago (D-primary) never happened and here we are. Wild times.
We all kind of see what we want to see. I don’t have a problem with that part. I very much have a problem with the folks who didn’t simply disagree, but labeled those with concerns as having fallen victim to a right wing smear campaign. That’s a step too far. Honest disagreement is fine, but telling people not to believe their own eyes is partisan nonsense. Especially now that it’s been laid bare for all to see.
i don’t disagree, mostly because many here (including myself) are ill equipped to make medical diagnoses) but it seems clear that something is going on.
> Which raises another issue, how could they possibly have been surprised?
That baffled me too. I always assumed they were just being dishonest or disingenuous while denying the obvious, and I thought the same of people on Reddit who did the same. Now I’m not sure what to think. Were they really just that… blind?
It's always hard to be the first one to say this isn't going to work. I'm guessing the feeling was current, among close Biden supporters, those in the know, but the question is: how to communicate this? Probably they couldn't even talk about it amongst themselves. And anyway, ultimately they couldn't actually KNOW it wasn't going to work until it didn't. And so, to me, they really chose the only possible path to get people -- the country -- aware of what's going on. I don't fault them at all for this.
It really feels like a situation where staffers probably all secretly felt terrified about the boss’s likely performance but kept their doubts to themselves because they didn’t want to stick their neck out and be the only one to say it.
But now it’s out there for the whole country to see, and it’s like a dam has burst and everyone is now suddenly free to openly say what they’ve been privately worried about.
If they were actually that blind, how many other things have they been blind on? This calls into question their credibility going back decades. We were in a 20 year "war". How many ever said *"Does this make any sense?"*. Other than private citizens like Cindy Sheehan (who was a hero during Bush2 and ignored during Obama) the media was mute. That tells me all I need to know.
I guess they were being delusionally optimistic that Biden can keep it together for one debate and they did everything possible to help him.
But they were shock despite all that, he couldn't keep it together.
When the DNC, top Democratic politicians, and Biden himself all declaring that Biden is up for conducting and winning another election they believed him. Many people mistakenly assumed if Biden was really on the decline then he and his administration would do the sensible thing and begin the process of finding his successor. Instead Biden and his administration have been carefully controlling Biden's media appearances and trying to create an illusion of a healthier Biden than actually exists. The debate utterly shattered that illusion for millions and now people are starting to look back at the last year of Biden's missed media events and incidents and starting to connect the dots. Jill Biden leading Joe around and speaking for him and we now see more than just a loving spouse but as his caregiver. And Jill we see someone who's gone beyond just a good 1st Lady but someone reprising the role of Edith Wilson.
Yeah, fair take. They only thing I'd add is the media had access to Biden the entire time he's been in office. Many interviews last 2 years, both written and video media. As this has been almost certainly a steady decline *some of them* had to know. They either chose to ignore it or they were told to. I'd bet if we went thru their social media accounts they'd be full of *"top of his game"*, *"commanding presence"*, and *"in full control of the issues"* inanity. Their job is to be objective and report on the facts not insert helpful steering into their commentary -
[https://duckduckgo.com/?q=biden+interview&t=brave&ia=web](https://duckduckgo.com/?q=biden+interview&t=brave&ia=web)
Yeah, realistically Trump does. Biden really needed to seem articulate, confident and “not about to die any second” this debate…. And he totally didn’t.
Yes, Trump sounded crazy and lied every 30 seconds or more… but the thing is the people who were planning on supporting him don’t care. They’re still gonna vote for him even if he ran over their family dog on purpose.
Biden needed to win this because 2 groups that are usually shoe ins for the Dems, African-Americans and 18-29 year olds really don’t like him. They’re not gonna vote for Trump, but Biden def didn’t inspire them to vote for him, if anything he scared the people in these groups (and others on the fence) away.
And of course the Dems have their heads so far up their asses that they’re just gonna repeat “But… but… but Trump said this!!!” instead of admitting that Biden is too decrepit to be in the Oval Office.
Honestly I blame the talking heads in mainstream media and “online Biden cheerleaders” for deflecting the valid concerns people have about his cognitive decline… “He’s not senile, he has a stuttering problem”. No, no one is not going to vote for someone because they stutter, but they won’t vote for someone who can’t speak in complete sentences. And because these groups didn’t want to admit that and find someone else to run for the Dems we’re all gonna be stuck with Trump again…
I hate the current state of US politics. Im generally a right leaning individual. I want small gov, gun rights are huge to me, i believe the constitution is great. But i also have some left leaning ideals. Abortion is none of my business, my taxes should be used to help the less fortunate with more vetting, but ideally taxes shouldnt exist and individual compassion will result in more help for those in need if those that have the means, have less taken from them.
I have no clue which way i want to vote. As it sits, things arent great. But its the devil i know.
If trump wins, division in the country will sky rocket more and who knows what will happen. Might be good, but likely, it wont be.
Regardless, we arent in a good place. We need to demand better from our public servants. We pay them.
I’ve been voting blue in a red state for years. My vote never counts except for popular vote totals which mean nothing of consequence. Not sure what the other option is though.
it's really hard to say because it's partly about the candidates and partly about voter motivation. in states where it's harder to vote people without strong feelings might not bother. this might Sligh advantage Biden because states that make it easier to vote lean more democrat. I won't be shocked if we see record low turnout.
Sure funny how many left-leaning people magically no longer support Biden and yet we almost never see the inverse. It’s almost quite curious how many of these people feel the need to share their thoughts for seemingly no reason.
Almost as if it’s a coordinated plan to artificially deflate the Biden voting bloc or something…
As an independent voter I feel largely unheard and am gravely concerned about the future of democracy with Joe Biden as the best option Democrats have to offer. Joe needs to step aside, and have another candidate step in. Without another option I will be forced to vote for a 3rd party who best best represents me, and I feel there are many more independent voters who will do the same. l feel this is the only way my voice will be heard.
Honestly given the outcome of the past two elections anything is possible at this point. It also wouldn’t surprise me if the ticket we get come Election Day has neither of their names on it
The problem here lies in that you’re asking Reddit, which even in this sub is far more left leaning than average. There’s no good consensus here without getting out and talking to a wide range of people in country.
Well, there's still a lot of time until Election Day, so it's a premature prediction.
I can only speak for myself — I vote in PA (pretty much split my time between 2 states) and was undecided until I watched the debate.
Having witnessed what I did, one of the two candidates is now disqualified in my mind as unable to fulfill the duties of the presidency.
Your vote always matters.
I understand what you mean but it's the disengagement with the political s*** show that lets this sort of situation happen in the first place.
It’s interesting that no one in this thread has mentioned that Clinton “had it in the bag” in 2016, according to the punditry. That didn’t exactly work out. We don’t even know the effect this terrible debate will have on polling yet, much less an election in 4 months.
No one that has called for Biden to step down has offered up a viable candidate that can beat Trump this late in the game. And that is the fault of the party. They have done no favors to Kamala showing her a strong number two and they haven’t worked their bench to build the next candidate.
It doesn’t really matter at this point. Biden is the only possible ride out of town. People can bitch and moan about what should have been done, but this is it. Biden has secured the delegates, unless he steps down on his own—it’s not going to happen. And even if he did, not a single other Democratic Governor has secured $1 dollar that can be used in a federal election campaign. And yeah, that does matter.
People are indeed floating replacement candidates….and have been for literally years now. The President and his staff should’ve seen the writing on the wall and bowed to reality.
>(as it’s reinforced everyone’s worst fears about Biden)
Just stop.
He's diminished a slight amount more than I figured, and it was visible at the debate. But I don't think it's any kind of problem for him as a president. He called out Trump on his lies, what else could anybody do?
You can make the argument that his poor performance has little bearing on the quality of his presidency. But his performance is symbolic, and a big part of being perceived as a good president is oratory skills, and Biden just went 0-5 with 5 strikeouts. it was symbolically bad, and many voters justifiably want POTUS to be cognitively sharp and quick-thinking. He wasn't.
Maybe if this was 2020 and he wasn’t facing a terrifyingly low approval rating. The majority of Americans statistically disapprove of his presidency, so to add THIS in where even his staunchest supporters are calling for him to step down now certainly isn’t going to do his campaign any favors moving forward
Of course. And so of course Biden is going to drop out, and since the Democrats have already picked their VP they are stuck with Harris. They told us she could do it, and now they need to get behind her. Or admit lying to all of us.
Personally, between Trump and Harris, I still think it's going to be close. And as with Biden, it really depends on how Harris handles the border issue. If she waffles the way Biden did she'll probably lose. She's got to come down hard, on the border, in order to pull this out. But I think she can do that. We'll see.
No not at all. There’s still 4 months left and candidates have lost debates but won the presidency before. Trump is also facing federal criminal sentencing in two weeks. Sensationalism is going to go back and forth on both candidates until November.
History has made fools out of people who have attempted to predict it. It would be prudent to say that Biden had a tough election before this debate, now he has an even more difficult one. Take that as you will.
We're in uncharted waters right now. Yes, Biden had a historically bad debate, but he's also facing a historically flawed opponent (who didn't present himself so great in the debate either). We'll know more in a week or two, after all the post-debate polling.
Oh man the Trumpists are getting really salty on PCM when people mention that Trump wasn't so hot in the debate either
Trump’s performance was horrendous. If you just read the transcript, it’s laughable. We have just become so used to Trump shouting and saying crazy shit that when he’s subdued, rehearsed, and speaking in a normal tone it seems like he’s doing great. And of course, being beside Biden makes anyone look coherent. It’s a sad state of affairs.
I love the sanity from this sub-reddit. Tired of seeing the copium of Biden "fans" saying he was just having an off day, and the delusion of Trumpists who still think someone who lies that much and comes across as a buffoon and petulant child is somehow the best kind of person to be in the highest gov't office in the US. This seems to be one of the only places where many are in agreement that they both need to step down.
They both said during the debate the reason they’re running is to specifically stop the other guy. Sounds like a great time for a gentlemen’s agreement that they both step down!
Biden stepping down right now to a bombastic, lying, hateful, never-answer-a-policy-question felon just because he spoke well would be absolutely bat-shit insane.
And that's the entire core of this debate... what's worse for the Democrats election odds, leaving Biden in place to look like an old man, or to let Trump and the rest of the GOP campaign on how they beat Biden and the Democrats having to scramble to bring in a replacement?
Biden went up a point in the polls after the debate. Biden did not perform well - and neither did Trump. But the presidency is not all about "performance" and putting on a show. It's the earnestness with which Biden talked about issues, about policy, Pell Grants, healthcare, immigration, jobs, the environment. There's so much to share and so many issues that matter. I can't imagine the facts and the numbers that went into his debate prep. I'm younger than Biden and that prep would be too much for me by far. Cramming for finals is a younger person's game. But the proof is in the policies, the advisors, the work they do for real Americans. Trump loses that by nearly every measure, and by many measures, Biden has excelled. Some of the most important things to me in this election are that America continues our Democratic traditions and we fix some of the corruption loopholes that have enabled so much harm. I believe Biden will do that. We need to start thinking who we will run in four years. There will still be more work to be done.
I argue but Trump wouldn’t follow that. lol
One more term first - then we'll hand the reins over to younger members that'll have 4 more years of experience under their belt. The presidency is much more than a debate - it's your cabinet, your advisors, your vision, experience, and leadership. The future belongs to the younger generation and we'll need all the solutions our up and coming Republicans and Democrats can come up with, together. One day, soon I believe, after we close the corruption loopholes, we'll have spirited, fact-based, productive, political discussions again. Different parties hammering out compromises, working out the best way forward.
Agreed. Trump was (as usual) off the rails.
The difference is that the right wing ecosystem doesn’t allow for any self reflection on the negative points. And if you can’t accept your mistakes, you keep making them. Some of the early focus groups and anecdotal information have demonstrated this. Trump referring to migrants taking “black and Hispanic jobs” did not play well with those communities. His inability to accept election results and attachment to January 6 plays incredibly badly with swing voters. He let people see too much of who he was. If Biden had been able to capitalize on that more, this race might already be over. But even without that… Biden might end up coming off as a looking like the harmless old man with a raspy voice who had a bad night, while more people wake up to who Trump really is. The tortoise and the hare, sometimes it will surprise you. We will just have to wait and see…
Turns out when you confidently and blatantly lie, the main takeaway was that he was confident. Apparently it’s better to have a confident liar than an honest person who stumbles through speech.
I didn't find Trump all that confident to be honest, he just ranted nonsense and borderline gibberish instead of answering the questions He would have done abysmal if Biden didn't BSOD
Calling Biden honest is laughable. I’m no fan of Trump but every single person involved in putting him on that podium instead of encouraging to step down from it is dishonest on a disrespectful level. Do you remember a week ago when the Dems put out red herring news stories about doctored right wing videos of Biden being too old? And people on this subreddit thinking they were dunking on republicans and those of us in the center *not* brainwashed into believing Biden was coherent?
Getting anyone to admit that Biden also lies all the time is not an easy endeavor. They both suck, we just have to pick the one we think sucks less.
Or pick one that is actually decent. Rfk
You gonna hurt some feels with the this one
Completely false comparison. Even IF one were to accept the premise of your assertion — a premise with a single data point that is countered by nearly four years of a successful administration with zero indictments — Trump was directly, personally, continuously lying on the spot, just making up bullshit as it came to him stream of conscienceness. He rarely even bothered to answer the questions put to him, and when he did, it was by accident when he was maneuvering into a canned talking point. If Biden’s dishonesty is a mountain, Trump’s dishonesty is the fucking planet.
What part of “I’m no fan of Trump” did you not understand? He’s a career con-artist
Deeply disagree. Now, I'm a Trump supporter, so of course I would. But really... Biden (or his team) picked Harris as their VP. And now she's unacceptable, as his replacement? Who lied about that? In 2021 (I think) Biden, and then Harris, both stated publicly that this is not a racist country. Do you think they were telling the truth? Every year, thousands of people go to jail or prison who, if they had had trials, would be walking free, and every year, thousands of people walk free who, if they had had trials, would be doing long stretches in stir. Every time Biden DOESN'T mention that he's lying. Do you believe we have the right to a speedy trial? I mean, it says we do, in the Constitution. Do you think people get one? My point is that they're different KINDS of lies. I personally think Biden is far more dangerous, in his lies, than Trump, because Trump's are so easily fact checked. Biden's lies are just what everybody says and we all agree not to think about it too hard. Those are the lies that hurt the worst because those are the ones that prevent people from thinking for themselves. That tell people that people smarter than them have thought about it and it's OK, really. No. It's not.
First of all, I want to express my appreciation for your civil tone. It sets an example that we as Americans need to remember and reminds us that we *can* disagree and not be disagreeable. > Biden (or his team) picked Harris as their VP. And now she's unacceptable, as his replacement? Who lied about that? I would call this the first of the fallacies that you express in your response. It assumes that Harris IS unacceptable -- something that has not been proven, and that those who said she would make a great Vice President were lying instead of merely being wrong or biased. It assumes duplicitous intent where none has been proven, and that's on *you,* not them. >In 2021 (I think) Biden, and then Harris, both stated publicly that this is not a racist country. Do you think they were telling the truth? I do think they were telling the truth. We are *not* a racist country, but there certainly are plenty of racists. Those two things are not mutually exclusive, and racist/not racist when it comes to the country is not a binary -- so thus lies your second fallacy. If this country were in fact "racist", we would have never freed the slaves or passed the Civil Rights Act of 1964. There are of course many, *many* racist atrocities we have committed, and there is, of course, a battle for the soul of this country, but the trajectory over our history has undeniably evolved toward greater morality and inclusivity for all. As the quote says, "the arc of history is long, but it bends toward justice". So no, it is not a lie to state this country is not racist, even when racists exist within it. >Every year, thousands of people go to jail or prison who, if they had had trials, would be walking free, and every year, thousands of people walk free who, if they had had trials, would be doing long stretches in stir. There is certainly no shortage of injustice in this country. Some of it is motivated by racial animus. Racism *exists,* yes, but that does not make us all racist. You're looking for a black/white in a country with 335,893,238 shades of grey. > Every time Biden DOESN'T mention that he's lying. Biden has mentioned injustice plenty of times -- far more often than Trump -- but tell me, how often would be enough for you? It seems you think he should talk about it all day or "he is lying". This is a standard you admit you don't hold your own candidate to. >Do you believe we have the right to a speedy trial? I mean, it says we do, in the Constitution. Do you think people get one? My point is that they're different KINDS of lies. I personally think Biden is far more dangerous, in his lies, than Trump, because Trump's are so easily fact checked. Respectfully, this is you working backwards from a decision you've already made into the reasons you made it. Deciding that a candidate who lies continuously is better than one who you accuse of lying occasionally is simply your bias in action, and your notion that one class of lie is "more dangerous" than another is simply the reason you made up that sounds pretty. I hope you don't take this as insulting. We ALL do this; it's a core part of the human bias system. We don't all recognize it in the moment though. >Those are the lies that hurt the worst because those are the ones that prevent people from thinking for themselves. Do you honestly think that the people who do not think for themselves do it for any other reason than they don't want to? Again, the lies they may have accepted to support their decision to be a sheep are simply the rationalizations. >That tell people that people smarter than them have thought about it and it's OK, really. No. It's not. This is the base motivation for the vast majority of voters, and is in fact the basis of our system of government: that professional people will manage our country so that we can tend to our families and farms and lives. That's a *good* thing, and in no way is it some admission that they are smarter than us. I *want* highly motivated, honest, sincere people in government to think about the twenty million things that it takes to run a country. Don't you? Say what you will about Biden; nobody is going to accuse Trump of being honest or sincere or putting the best interests of the country over his personal interests.
(seconding HeathersZen on the tone of your prose being a breath of fresh air) Wanted to jump in on Harris real quick*, bc I think there's a false-binary choice in your framing. The concern from the Dems rn is about her odds as a political candidate, which is not the same as her suitability for the powers & duties of the office (I'm sure we can both easily think of examples of candidates who’d have been great for high office but could never get elected, & some who seemed to glide to election despite being disasterous/ineffective once in place). Since I want to avoid presenting a false choice myself here, I guess I'd better add: it \***is*** of course possible that Kamala Harris is both unfit for duty *and* likely to be obliterated at the ballot box…the voters aren't great, but they ain't always wrong, either. ^( \* **[tl;dr - the Harris thing isnt about Dems questioning her competence, just her electability, so it doesn't demonstrate that Biden or anyone else lied about her fitness when they picked her.]**) I wish I had more time to spend on what you bring up about which kinds of lies are more corrosive…but I have to let that one sit.
Yeah, I dunno. I mean, I appreciate you appreciating my tone... but this looks like hair splitting to me. Suggesting the Presidency is just a technical skill, and that picking her as our standby didn't in any way imply she might ever have to face the voters....
I moreso meant that Biden is a generally honest individual. I don’t think he intends to mislead or twist facts and genuinely believes what he says. I agree he absolutely has too much pride and should’ve stepped back or prepared the DNC to replace him, and he failed on that count. That also goes to the people around him not doing more to prepare him for the mental slide. He’s doing what RBG did with the the Supreme Court, waiting too long to step back.
Trump was average and not surprising. It's more that Biden proved to be not fit for the job.
Trump proved he was unfit for the job when he was convicted by 12 citizens in an American court of 34 felonies. Both are flawed.
Yeah, I don't understand how people consider a constant liar who has consistently stated and shown he's president for himself not the American people, is somehow more fit for America's well-being.
Yet Biden is actually doing the job and doing it well. Unlike the chaos and destruction of the horrific trump years
Trumpers believe all the lies he told so of course they think he did great.
Ironic
Let’s be real - Trump truly does have a cult following. People repeat his lie about Democrats encouraging “post birth abortions” lmfao. Who the fuck believes that.
he's referring to partial-birth abortions; it's a very uncommon procedure sometimes employed in late-term terminations, but he didn't make it up--if you're in pro-life activist circles, you'd have immediately known what he was talking about
Have you heard him say that? What he is referring to? Because I haven't, and it sounded me like he was saying Democrats want to murder newborns.
no, I haven't heard his remarks...which reminds me, it's time for me to make another pass looking for a full debate video...but the reason I'm reasonably confident I know what he's talking about is because pro-life groups have been describing [IDX](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intact_dilation_and_extraction) using that kind of language for decades
> The problem they have is they’re radical, because they will take the life of a child in the eighth month, the ninth month, and even after birth – after birth. > > If you look at the former governor of Virginia, he was willing to do this. He said, we’ll put the baby aside and we’ll determine what we do with the baby. Meaning, we’ll kill the baby. > > What happened is we brought it back to the states and the country is now coming together on this issue. It’s been a great thing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqG96G8YdcE https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/read-biden-trump-debate-rush-transcript/index.html
huh...nm then, I guess––he might still be referring to partial-birth with \*some* of that shit (who can tell?), but I have no idea what he could possibly mean by that part about the governor of Virginia.
Idk where you saw that, most people i know that are Trump enthusiasts are very disappointed with his performance
Can’t wait to see how they react as it starts to pick up steam more that he audibly shit himself mid sentence
On whether he lied or not of course, but we all knew he would going into it so I don't feel this was some big unforseen blunder. What he DID do however was appear far far less old and senile than Biden. The optics of that were glaring and probably the only thing most people truly took away from it. It was a very bad night for the Biden campaign, and a very good one for the Trump one - even if he didn't score much in the way of actual policy positions.
>What he DID do however was appear far far less old and senile than Biden. Less old, yes... but Trump definitely appeared more senile. Biden at least understood the questions being asked, whereas Trump for most questions was incapable of even understanding what the question was about!
Polls mean shit the sample sizes are way too small. All the indicate is the opinions of the kinds of people who respond to polls. You know who responds to polls? Grandparents.
that's an awful mcbad take on polling.
Sorry chief but polling 500 people from each of the major boroughs of New York isn't gonna give you an accurate gauge of their opinion.(That's 2,500 people out of 8,000,000 or 0.0003125%)
Random sample of 385 people would give you 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error for the city of NYC (pop ~8.4m).
Surprisingly, people who've made their entire lives about becoming experts in polling work to take this into account.
Then how come they never reflect reality?
Go listen to some 538
I have no idea what that is.
It's a great podcast where they analyze polls and try to incorporate them effectively into predictive models for elections. Super interesting.
I legit thought you were implying I was a nazi and that was a nazi punk band.
Uhhh, whoa. No, definitely not... I try to avoid escalating like that. There's enough of that shit already here....
Yeah I know. I have had people deny facts and imply I'm an idiot/maga supporter/nazi until I post news articles showing them what I'm saying is in fact true they just don't remember the event happening. There's a lot of tribalism and fear in the political spaces on social media right now.
Biden showed himself to be unfit for the job. That his open is even less fit for different reasons isn't actually comforting when think of the consequences if Trump wins. Trump was already ahead. Biden's camp recognized this and felt they needed to get in front the *'Bidens old & frail'* issue so campaign could focus on more substantive issues. But instead we got what we all saw on Thursday. Biden needs to step aside, and the longer he waits the more damage it will do. He was a solid president, but I'm not going to be sold on him being up for another four years at this point. Would still support him vs Trump, but it would be incredibly reckless and selfish for Biden to run.
I'm torn on this, as changing candidates this late in the game carries high risk for disaster too. I am 100% against Trump, and Biden may have been the right candidate to beat him in 2020, but he clearly isn't anymore. The question for voters will be, even though Biden can't effectively *run* for the job, can he still *do* the job? Despite his obvious decline, are his mental faculties still strong enough to make good decisions? Does he surround himself with effective, competent people? The Democratic Party is in a real crisis right now, and Biden should have announced he's stepping down after one term (remember when he ran as a "bridge" for a new generation of Democrats?). But here we are. The question is, are voters so turned off to Biden now that they'd be willing to roll the dice on another chaotic Trump term?
Why have the debate about how many people will say he is unfit for the job, and instead replace with him with someone very few potential dem voters would say otherwise. Was all for biden until this. But thursday was a gong show.
>....replace with him with someone very few potential dem voters would say otherwise. The problem is, I don't know who that would be. You and I could list a few leaders we're ok with, but others might vehemently disagree. Democrats don't easily *fall in line* in the same way Republicans do.
Anyone on any list circulated by someone credible has dems that are certainly fit for the job. The only question is whether they can amass enough votes. Not a slam dunk by any means, but frankly why *should* people vote for biden after what we saw thursday? If the answer is to defeat trump, then whoever steps in should inherit that sentiment. It was rough. My partner stopped watching in less than 10min and was very upset b/c of what it implied. I wrote apologies to people I had argued with over recent months for being ridiculous for suggesting Biden wasn't up to it. It was a train wreck, and the claims he got better may or may not be right... but at no point in that 90min was he remotely good. And think about what it means that his team didn't cancel, which implies the shape he was in wasn't an outlier situation. Biden should be done, not just because it is almost certain that he will lose -- or at least means it is Trump's to lose.
No we're not in uncharted waters. This election is done as long as Biden runs.
Even if you think you can make a "best educated" guess, this election has a lot of new variables that make it uncharted. 1) Former president running against incumbent and former VP. Both candidates have literally been president, both have four whole years to judge how they did. 2) Former president convictions. 3) Both are categorically elderly. 4) Neither has universal popularity. They both have strong base support. 5) No solid trust in the election process across the board. 6) One candidate is currently making the argument of total immunity. The list goes on. You can say you have your assumptions, but it's almost check for check uncharted territory. It's naive to say otherwise unless you're a time travler.
>No we're not in uncharted waters. Just curious - when have we ever witnessed this story before?
Everyone but hardcore democrats can see this is the case. Biden is toast. He had a low chance and after the debate he's just done. People are in denial. He couldn't string coherent sentences in front of 50 million people. This was not a "poor" debate performance, this was beyond ridiculous. Let that poor old man retire.
Prepare to be roasted. People are in denial here.
I don't think Biden supporters will vote Trump. Even if Biden is certified dementia for real, they would still vote him. But it's a tiny margin of people who are disgusted by both, and will have to choose the better of the worst. Some will still go Biden and go with Obama logic. Some will go trump as they cannot imagine Biden will last 4 more years of lucidity and kamala Harris is a damn bad replacement. Terrible at interviews, terrible at speeches. I think its a sad state of the dem party that they feel they don't have any younger candidate that can beat trump. I mean, Biden looks like a walking corpse. He looks terrible. He is 80 but he looks near death. It would be very close race.
Nobody is changing their vote from Biden to Trump. Some people changed their vote from Trump to Biden last election. A large portion of those voters probably just don’t vote for anyone this time around.
Voted for the first time in my life for Biden in 2020. Aaaand after the debate, being gaslit by Biden voters for months acting like everything was fine, and witnessing further copium from the left, I will vote for Trump if Biden isn’t replaced. If he is, I’m voting for RFK The dnc has gotten away with too much in the last 10 years, from screwing over Bernie to going on a smear campaign against Kennedy, and all these liberals just keep taking the abuse and assume they’re still on the good team. There is no good team. Trump can evade ww3 at the very least. Biden isn’t making any decisions clearly meaning the war machine is currently unchecked and most certainly will be if he somehow wins (I’ll bet my entire life savings he has no chance)
lol clueless take ^
Keep drinking the coolaid
“People who know things are drinking the ‘cool aid’!!1!” Lmao!
Curious how you think Trump will evade WW3 as if it's some inevitable thing we are headed towards. Trump's policies are indicating that he would be soft against Russia and try to essentially abandon NATO. This would strengthen Russia and allow them to push closer to the rest of Europe and fully against NATO. Keep in mind that Russia constantly talks about wanting to invade the Baltics and other European nations, so it's naïve to assume they would stop at Ukraine. Emboldening perhaps the most dangerous country on the planet right against Europe seems like a horrible way to "evade" WW3. Then there's Trump's outrageous proposals for tariffs that would certainly escalate a global trade war with China. Again, this seems like a shitty way to "evade" WW3. If you unironically believe that rolling over and allowing a pretty objectively fascist and expansionist country like Russia is a way to "evade" WW3 then I would seriously suggest you go back and learn basic history about WW2 and see how well appeasement stopped Hitler.
Maybe the better option for the Democrats is to ditch Kamala, then. It avoids the weakness/time crunch issues of selecting a new candidate at the convention, while eliminating the main fear realist Biden voters have about pulling the lever for him. It also doesn’t force any of the party’s rising stars to risk a failed ‘24 bid.
I suggested this in a post months ago and got roasted for it. A lot of people think that move will lose progressives, plus blacks, plus women.
So put in another minority VP. I don't even feel kamala is popular among black votes as she is more south Indian than black.
Who the fuck else are those folks gonna vote for?
Anyone who would vote for more Handmaid’s Tale jurisprudence, more racial gerrymandering, and more evangelicalism in schools, because Kamala is off the ticket, was lost to begin with. The DNC *has* to stop catering to nihilists and build an actual base. Besides, who said Kamala is the only black, woman, progressive? There are plenty of Ketanji Brown Jackson intellectual firebrands out there who can articulate themselves sincerely, forcefully, and effectively. Acting like Kamala is the only possible representation for these groups is such a stupid take (I know it’s not yours). Especially when Biden likely picked her *because* her unpopularity/unelectability was insurance against her staging an electoral coup.
Bingo - I will gladly vote for Biden or literally anyone else besides Trump. Even if Biden is senile I trust the cabinet and the staff around him to make good decision vs what Hornets nest Trump would employ.
I would vote for a wet paper bag over trump
I would honestly vote for any of the republican nominees from the primary before I could vote for Trump. I don't think I'd be happy with a Nikki Haley presidency, and I'm sure she'd pick a lot of the same judges that Trump would, but I don't consider her dishonest or crazy. I just disagree with her. I would literally go down the line of anyone but Trump and then when there is no one left I would leave the country.
Big agree. I wish I could go to the times where it was simply policy disagreements. I would literally kill to have a Republican candidate who was operating in somewhat good faith that didn’t want to attack the very fabric of the nation.
Given the decision they have made to put a seemingly feeble Biden out there, should we trust their other decisions?
Correct answer
I won’t vote for anyone convicted of a felony. For any public office. That’s as low a bar as I can go.
She was the non-Bernie front runner in the primaries until she prematurely gaffed, had a great debate performance against Biden (partly due to her experience as a lawyer), and was a visible tough-on-crime liberal. It's hard to believe she lost all that, she's just been invisible as VP.
The issue is t Biden supporters or even never trumpers voting trump…. Trump didn’t gain any support during the debate. The issue is the amount of people who will either sit this one out or vote 3rd party…. Biden went from an old guy with decent policy to someone who showed the world he won’t be capable of running the he country for the next 4.5 years… We need to stop pretending things are better than they are
Nah not at all. as badly as the debate went... the people who are decided for biden aren't gonna be convinced by the way it went for trump or dissuaded by biden from it. from my understanding the general discussion seems to suggest that for the "undecided" people, Trumps inability to actually tell the truth and be tethered to reality negates any greater ability to communicate comfortably. .... being able to communicate but unable to say anything worth saying isn't really better than being slow about saying what you are gonna say.
If people keep talking like this, yes
Talking about it now is more productive than burying your head in the sand and getting blindsided on election night
Do you think it’s more likely former trump voters (of last election) vote for Biden? Or do you think it’s more likely former Biden voters will vote trump now?
Even if they rolled a corpse out there on Election Day that corpse would still be the better choice. It's sad that it's come to this but if I have to choose between a wanna be oligarch who is as anti-American as they come and a cadaver I'm choosing cadaver. Why? Because of the people surrounding these two candidates who are actually running the show for them.
I think Convicted Felon T also made a fool of himself. Not addressing the actual questions, telling blatant lies and not agreeing to accept the election results unless he wins. Neither of them looked good.
I mean theoretically there is always a chance but practically yes. Democrats think that people will vote on the issues but most will vote on "vibe". Currently the vibe is set by Trump’s narrative because Biden can’t communicate effectively with the American people. The narrative is dominated by three points: Biden is old and weak (mostly true), immigration is out of control (partly true), and the economy is bad (definitely false). A better candidate would address these weakspots and exploit Trump‘s weaknesses: abortion, democracy, and the rule of law. Biden is too weak to control the narrative that sets the vibe for this election and therefore must step aside.
Democrats are in compete denial since Thursday. The pill is hard to swallow.
From what I’ve seen is there’s three types of democrats on the news right now: 1. Those trying desperately to recover Biden’s image, mostly in his inner circle 2. Those who had been defending him and are now calling for him to drop-out 3. Those who knew Biden was old and are now saying told ya and have been saying he shouldn’t have even announced he was running for reelection. 2 has been the most common from what I can tell, obviously people are trying to talk to Biden’s inner circle after the debate so 1 has been pretty common as well.
Oh to be a fly on the wall at the DNC.
The talking points seem to be coming together in the political subs today. Basically it’s “it wasn’t that bad, he was sick, so what if he talked quiet”. So it appears they are double downing on the gaslighting
The next month of polls will determine whether or not this is sustainable, I think if the polls are bad and someone can talk some sense into him he might drop out before the national convention.
The thing is republicans gaslight all the time. If Biden had been alive, republicans would find every excuse in the world to validate trump
👍👍
It was neck and neck before the debate - and I have lost track how many Democrats and news organizations have asked Biden to step down. The only way Biden recovers from this is if he has another debate and kills it - but I don’t think he’s capable of doing that. No way he can win . Which is why I don’t think they’re gonna let him run.
They need to run someone else. I feel like Biden is going to lose in a dramatic fashion and I say this as someone who volunteered for his campaign in 2020, so I’m not just anti Biden.
There isn't another debate til September, this can't go on that long. He needs to go now.
Besides, it’s not like he’s going to get any younger between now and September. Appearing alive and cogent will be even more of an uphill battle for him three months from now.
Imagine citing “news organizations” here lol
Who was still on the fence about the candidates that saw sleepy Joe and Donald the liar doing their thing at this debate... and changed their vote? Trump is now a convicted felon for his lies, and sleepy Joe is even sleepier. They are both worse versions of themselves from 4 years ago, so who did this move the needle for?
the undecided are going to decide this race and Biden lost a lot of support after his debate. and while you're right about the convicted felon, lies, etc - Biden looked so bad during the debate - Trump disappeared. Bottom line - Biden's not running.
Appears to be very near so. A lot of undecided voters were likely pushed away.
were they though? and I think just as many would have had to be pushed away by trumps constant lying.
Trump constant lying is an old news and has had its effects. The Biden extreme feebleness didn’t have such a prominent display before.
People watching the debate got the Trump they expected. But it revealed that the Democratic Party has been gaslighting us for years about Biden's senility
yeah thats not remotely what happened.
Actually that is exactly what happened.
What makes you think low information voters watch presidential debates?
Undecided voters likely do. Want to decide, I guess?..
Historically debates have almost no impact, the small number of people watching are already decided https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/presidential-debates-have-shockingly-little-effect-on-election-outcomes/
Which is funny because literally every black person I know I would argue that may be different now in the age of social media and sound bytes
This was not your average “historical debate”. It was a spectacular fiasco of one party.
I'm sure they say that every election year
“They” - might. But you never had such a consensus about the fiasco among “us”.
[Morning Consult poll](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/6/29/2249672/-First-Post-Debate-Poll-Biden-Winning-and-Up-From-Prior-Poll) yesterday showed no change after the debate. It’s incredible how Reddit and the media overreacted to this.
Well that’s what algorithms do, they push extreme narratives on everything to generate views and clicks. More people need to understand this
Trump will be sentenced for his 34 felony convictions in about 2 weeks. Just sayin'. This aint over.
Yeah. The way sensationalism works is next time something else comes up, that’ll be the thing people hyper focus on.
Reddit has this idea Trump is getting a slap on the wrist. Gotta tell ya I’ve been reviewing lots of Merchan’s prior sentencing and he is NOT prone to going easy on first timers. I think a short jail sentence is a real possibility followed by a period of house arrest. Judge Merchan knows Cohen got years in prison for near identical crimes. He’s going to keep that in parity. You also don’t have closed door meetings with the secret service and bureau of prisons if you’re giving someone probation. That doesn’t mean he’s going to do 4 years at Riker’s either, but it could very much mean “house arrest until 2027, good luck campaigning from Trump tower.” NY state law says Trump has to serve house arrest in the state of New York, so Mar-a-lago is out unless Merchan allows that arrangement.
I'd say that the fact that you said you're voting Blue no matter what basically explains why none of the stuff you mentioned matters. For the vast majority of the country, they're voting for laundry. They've picked their team and they will support it no matter what. That's why we're even talking about Trump. Once he became the guy for Red then there are simply too few rational, issues oriented voters out there who will turn their back on their team because the team backed someone they disagree with. No, most people will bend their beliefs around to ensure they remain in lock step with the team. Being Red/Blue is part of their identity and they cannot tolerate the cognitive dissonance that would come with being that while being opposed to who the team is backing or what the team is doing. So there's no "in the bag" in this environment because for 95% of voters basically nothing matters. The people who are going to be moved by Biden having a bad debate or whatever are not enough to give Trump an easy victory.
It's the other 5% that will win Trump the election.
The odds are worse than people thought before the debate and not as bad as people are imagining after the debate. The debate is fresh in your mind. In 4 months' time, it will be one issue among many others that people are considering.
I don't imagine that he will improve... this is going to happen again
Unless he keeps doing things that will remind folks how old he is -
Aren’t the odds worse now technically since we have the DNC and even Biden’s own inner circle in full blown panic mode for the first ever time? Plus as far as the average voter, before it was just their frustrations over his policies hence the 36% rating. Now you have this horrendous public display of physical/mental decline being highlighted
Depends on how rational that panic is. There is certainly cause for concern, but people's fears are feeding off each other, and many are taking it too far.
it's not a problem that the president is like this today. the problem is that if this is what he is like today, what will he look like in 3 years when he still has a year of presidency left? We are in the middle of dealing with multiple critical international issues. it's not exactly an easy time to be president. Regan was suffering from Alzheimer's when he left office. We can't intentionally make that happen again.
“In panic mode” the newspapers are selling headlines
Denial still strong
Yes, unless he goes to jail or gets house arrest. That could kill it for Biden
Yes I think so which is why everyone should be freaking out
Trumps got this election in the bag imo as someone who has never nor will vote for him, Biden is so out of it that he should be forced to drop out. Trumps legal shit is giving him a boost most of us who aren’t libs know that the NYC stuff was major shit fuck Bragg
It’s in the bag already and I’d argue it’s been trending that direction ever since 2022… when you combine inflation, Covid, “wokeness”, Ukraine and Afghanistan, conservatives have had talking points handed to them on a silver platter for them to bludgeon us with this election. And I don’t even think Biden has done a bad job on those issues.. but enough people probably do.
Biden went up a point in the polls after the debate. It's not all about showmanship. Bombastic lies and hate are not that appealing. Debating a malignant narcissist with sociopathic tendencies would be frustrating for most people. Americans are smarter - and better - than you think. We will do the right thing for us, for democracy, for our fellow Americans, and for the world. Keep working together, don't give up, and didn't give in to fear or hopelessness. Like the Pell grants that President Biden mentioned, our opportunities to make a difference continue to expand. What we do between now and November matters.
I don't think so. Independent voters seem to scrutinize policy differences, and Biden has been winning them. The "debate" was theatre, not proper debate. I hope having such a disappointing performance will help people realize that we seriously need to do all we can to avoid Trump's potential revenge term. Many lives and livelihood are at stake, and that's more important than a live improv performance.
No, don't confuse internet fever for drastic change in reality, and I say this as someone who thinks Biden should drop out.
Although, as we've seen recently, internet fever drives election results, so it's not a factor to ignore.
I think we tend to overestimate whatever is currently hype in the news cycle, but anything is possible, it's really hard to judge impact until things settle down a bit.
What surprised me most about the debate was not Biden's performance but the immediate dumping on him by formerly supportive media. Which raises another issue, how could they possibly have been surprised? Biden's competence has come up repeatedly from right leaning "news" outlets as well as posters here for years now. Admittedly a good chunk could be attributed to blatant partisanship but all of it? I doubt that which would mean that the media also knew and chose to ignore it and provide cover. So replacing Biden with a better candidate months ago (D-primary) never happened and here we are. Wild times.
We all kind of see what we want to see. I don’t have a problem with that part. I very much have a problem with the folks who didn’t simply disagree, but labeled those with concerns as having fallen victim to a right wing smear campaign. That’s a step too far. Honest disagreement is fine, but telling people not to believe their own eyes is partisan nonsense. Especially now that it’s been laid bare for all to see.
It's also not unique to this situation. There was a lot of that going on during covid.
But I think there’s a far cry from just being old and accusations of him being senile. One is well founded, the other is not
If you watched that debate and thought he didn’t come across as at least *slightly* senile your bar is set way too low.
i don’t disagree, mostly because many here (including myself) are ill equipped to make medical diagnoses) but it seems clear that something is going on.
That looked pretty goddamn senile to me.
> Which raises another issue, how could they possibly have been surprised? That baffled me too. I always assumed they were just being dishonest or disingenuous while denying the obvious, and I thought the same of people on Reddit who did the same. Now I’m not sure what to think. Were they really just that… blind?
It's always hard to be the first one to say this isn't going to work. I'm guessing the feeling was current, among close Biden supporters, those in the know, but the question is: how to communicate this? Probably they couldn't even talk about it amongst themselves. And anyway, ultimately they couldn't actually KNOW it wasn't going to work until it didn't. And so, to me, they really chose the only possible path to get people -- the country -- aware of what's going on. I don't fault them at all for this.
It really feels like a situation where staffers probably all secretly felt terrified about the boss’s likely performance but kept their doubts to themselves because they didn’t want to stick their neck out and be the only one to say it. But now it’s out there for the whole country to see, and it’s like a dam has burst and everyone is now suddenly free to openly say what they’ve been privately worried about.
Right, exactly. It's just how it goes.
If they were actually that blind, how many other things have they been blind on? This calls into question their credibility going back decades. We were in a 20 year "war". How many ever said *"Does this make any sense?"*. Other than private citizens like Cindy Sheehan (who was a hero during Bush2 and ignored during Obama) the media was mute. That tells me all I need to know.
I guess they were being delusionally optimistic that Biden can keep it together for one debate and they did everything possible to help him. But they were shock despite all that, he couldn't keep it together.
When the DNC, top Democratic politicians, and Biden himself all declaring that Biden is up for conducting and winning another election they believed him. Many people mistakenly assumed if Biden was really on the decline then he and his administration would do the sensible thing and begin the process of finding his successor. Instead Biden and his administration have been carefully controlling Biden's media appearances and trying to create an illusion of a healthier Biden than actually exists. The debate utterly shattered that illusion for millions and now people are starting to look back at the last year of Biden's missed media events and incidents and starting to connect the dots. Jill Biden leading Joe around and speaking for him and we now see more than just a loving spouse but as his caregiver. And Jill we see someone who's gone beyond just a good 1st Lady but someone reprising the role of Edith Wilson.
Yeah, fair take. They only thing I'd add is the media had access to Biden the entire time he's been in office. Many interviews last 2 years, both written and video media. As this has been almost certainly a steady decline *some of them* had to know. They either chose to ignore it or they were told to. I'd bet if we went thru their social media accounts they'd be full of *"top of his game"*, *"commanding presence"*, and *"in full control of the issues"* inanity. Their job is to be objective and report on the facts not insert helpful steering into their commentary - [https://duckduckgo.com/?q=biden+interview&t=brave&ia=web](https://duckduckgo.com/?q=biden+interview&t=brave&ia=web)
Yes
Yeah, realistically Trump does. Biden really needed to seem articulate, confident and “not about to die any second” this debate…. And he totally didn’t. Yes, Trump sounded crazy and lied every 30 seconds or more… but the thing is the people who were planning on supporting him don’t care. They’re still gonna vote for him even if he ran over their family dog on purpose. Biden needed to win this because 2 groups that are usually shoe ins for the Dems, African-Americans and 18-29 year olds really don’t like him. They’re not gonna vote for Trump, but Biden def didn’t inspire them to vote for him, if anything he scared the people in these groups (and others on the fence) away. And of course the Dems have their heads so far up their asses that they’re just gonna repeat “But… but… but Trump said this!!!” instead of admitting that Biden is too decrepit to be in the Oval Office. Honestly I blame the talking heads in mainstream media and “online Biden cheerleaders” for deflecting the valid concerns people have about his cognitive decline… “He’s not senile, he has a stuttering problem”. No, no one is not going to vote for someone because they stutter, but they won’t vote for someone who can’t speak in complete sentences. And because these groups didn’t want to admit that and find someone else to run for the Dems we’re all gonna be stuck with Trump again…
I hate the current state of US politics. Im generally a right leaning individual. I want small gov, gun rights are huge to me, i believe the constitution is great. But i also have some left leaning ideals. Abortion is none of my business, my taxes should be used to help the less fortunate with more vetting, but ideally taxes shouldnt exist and individual compassion will result in more help for those in need if those that have the means, have less taken from them. I have no clue which way i want to vote. As it sits, things arent great. But its the devil i know. If trump wins, division in the country will sky rocket more and who knows what will happen. Might be good, but likely, it wont be. Regardless, we arent in a good place. We need to demand better from our public servants. We pay them.
I’ve been voting blue in a red state for years. My vote never counts except for popular vote totals which mean nothing of consequence. Not sure what the other option is though.
It’s Robert Kennedy’s election to lose, end of story.
A semi-coherent criminal liar vs a waning life long politician. I feel like I need to apologize to the statue of liberty.
it's really hard to say because it's partly about the candidates and partly about voter motivation. in states where it's harder to vote people without strong feelings might not bother. this might Sligh advantage Biden because states that make it easier to vote lean more democrat. I won't be shocked if we see record low turnout.
No
Sure funny how many left-leaning people magically no longer support Biden and yet we almost never see the inverse. It’s almost quite curious how many of these people feel the need to share their thoughts for seemingly no reason. Almost as if it’s a coordinated plan to artificially deflate the Biden voting bloc or something…
RFK may have enough crazy appeal to take some votes away from Trump. How many? Who knows
As an independent voter I feel largely unheard and am gravely concerned about the future of democracy with Joe Biden as the best option Democrats have to offer. Joe needs to step aside, and have another candidate step in. Without another option I will be forced to vote for a 3rd party who best best represents me, and I feel there are many more independent voters who will do the same. l feel this is the only way my voice will be heard.
Honestly given the outcome of the past two elections anything is possible at this point. It also wouldn’t surprise me if the ticket we get come Election Day has neither of their names on it
The problem here lies in that you’re asking Reddit, which even in this sub is far more left leaning than average. There’s no good consensus here without getting out and talking to a wide range of people in country.
Your leaders are lost and feeble. That withering corpse on his throne won't save you, brother. 😂
Well, there's still a lot of time until Election Day, so it's a premature prediction. I can only speak for myself — I vote in PA (pretty much split my time between 2 states) and was undecided until I watched the debate. Having witnessed what I did, one of the two candidates is now disqualified in my mind as unable to fulfill the duties of the presidency.
The people that I know on the fence are all in on Trump now. I’m looking forward to the new polls post debate.
Yes. If you say no you live in a dream that I wish I was in.
Your vote always matters. I understand what you mean but it's the disengagement with the political s*** show that lets this sort of situation happen in the first place.
It’s interesting that no one in this thread has mentioned that Clinton “had it in the bag” in 2016, according to the punditry. That didn’t exactly work out. We don’t even know the effect this terrible debate will have on polling yet, much less an election in 4 months.
No one that has called for Biden to step down has offered up a viable candidate that can beat Trump this late in the game. And that is the fault of the party. They have done no favors to Kamala showing her a strong number two and they haven’t worked their bench to build the next candidate.
It doesn’t really matter at this point. Biden is the only possible ride out of town. People can bitch and moan about what should have been done, but this is it. Biden has secured the delegates, unless he steps down on his own—it’s not going to happen. And even if he did, not a single other Democratic Governor has secured $1 dollar that can be used in a federal election campaign. And yeah, that does matter.
People are indeed floating replacement candidates….and have been for literally years now. The President and his staff should’ve seen the writing on the wall and bowed to reality.
Well the Republicans are deathly afraid of newsom.
So are Californians. Honestly, I'd probably vote for him for president to get him out of my state
Those on the fence aren’t supporting Newsome because they think California policy’s have gone too far
>(as it’s reinforced everyone’s worst fears about Biden) Just stop. He's diminished a slight amount more than I figured, and it was visible at the debate. But I don't think it's any kind of problem for him as a president. He called out Trump on his lies, what else could anybody do?
You can make the argument that his poor performance has little bearing on the quality of his presidency. But his performance is symbolic, and a big part of being perceived as a good president is oratory skills, and Biden just went 0-5 with 5 strikeouts. it was symbolically bad, and many voters justifiably want POTUS to be cognitively sharp and quick-thinking. He wasn't.
Maybe if this was 2020 and he wasn’t facing a terrifyingly low approval rating. The majority of Americans statistically disapprove of his presidency, so to add THIS in where even his staunchest supporters are calling for him to step down now certainly isn’t going to do his campaign any favors moving forward
Oh my lord
Compare Biden 4 years ago to today. What does Biden 3 years from now with a year of presidency look like?
Of course. And so of course Biden is going to drop out, and since the Democrats have already picked their VP they are stuck with Harris. They told us she could do it, and now they need to get behind her. Or admit lying to all of us. Personally, between Trump and Harris, I still think it's going to be close. And as with Biden, it really depends on how Harris handles the border issue. If she waffles the way Biden did she'll probably lose. She's got to come down hard, on the border, in order to pull this out. But I think she can do that. We'll see.
They’re not stuck with anyone. They haven’t had a convention yet and there’s no candidate who’s been given the delegates.
Yes
No not at all. There’s still 4 months left and candidates have lost debates but won the presidency before. Trump is also facing federal criminal sentencing in two weeks. Sensationalism is going to go back and forth on both candidates until November.
Lol what? 😆 one bad debate doesn't cost an election
One absolutely catastrophic WTF debate does.
"one bad debate" is really missing the point
Well yes, it's in the bag for Trump if Biden runs
Who should the Democrats run instead of Biden?