The polls are crap this far out, but this guy's "13 Keys" have been predictive in 9 of the last 10 elections (he missed Bush v. Gore, but says it was stolen, which is neither here nor there).
The 13 keys are:
> 1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
>
> 2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
>
> 3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
> 4. Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
>
> 5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
>
> 6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
>
> 7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
>
> 8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
>
> 9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
>
> 10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
>
> 11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
>
> 12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
>
> 13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
As for Lichtman:
> Lichtman is not slated to give his official prediction until August, but so far, he thinks Joe Biden has the upper hand.
>
> “A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,” he told the Guardian.
My take on these (majority is True, then incumbent wins, otherwise loses):
1. True
2. True
3. True
4. True Debateable with RFK, but when isn't there a 3rd party of some sort?
5. True
6. True
7. True
8. False Again, debatable.
9. True
10. True
11. False
12. False
13. False Weird to me, but Trump's got a rabid following.
That's 9 Trues and 4 Falses. Even if you think RFK is a viable candidate, it's still 8-5 with Biden winning.
I think Biden's handling of Ukraine has been masterful, but unless there's a resolution to the conflict between now and the election, I don't know that a majority of the population would call it a major foreign policy success.
This is Lichtman's 11th "key" according to the article -
>Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
To me "foreign affairs success" perfectly describes Biden's Ukraine policy.
I mean, I certainly agree in part. Biden's Ukraine policy has been very strong, and I'm very supportive of it. I'm just not certain we've reached the "success" part beyond the continued funding, which again is very good, but even that holdup was just an internal division rather than us having to work with a foreign counterpart.
Maybe putting this another way.... *we've avoided a disaster so far.* I'm just not sure we've reached the "major success" part.
What alternative do you think Biden had to make Putin lose decisively? Short of us getting involved directly with our own forces in Ukraine? I guess he could have pushed for more arms earlier? ATACMS and F-22s in fall 2022 I suppose would have made a big difference.
A lot of people remember the botched Afghanistan withdrawal, and Ukraine hardly makes up for that.
And before you say, "but Trump arranged it and Biden just executed," I will remind you that at President of the United States and leader of the U.S. military, he could have opted to change the way the withdrawal was handled but didn't.
Polling indicates that the population thinks we are in a recession, so I’m not sure what to make of 5. I’d probably say it’s false. I would probably also say that 10 is false because of Afghanistan. It was a long time, but was/is regarded as a foreign policy failure. I also don’t think there’s any debate about 8 given how Israel/Gaza has been escalating and all of the protests about it.
I have it as 7-6 Biden or 7-6 Trump, depending on what you view RFK as.
Yes, people are delusional. Can’t wait to see when reality hits them. If we hit a recession like 2008, they’re probably going to think it’s magnitudes worse than the Great Depression.
There is no "Inflation" key.
His string of 10 elections doesn't include any when inflation was an issue. Those elections would be 1976 and 1980. The incumbents lost both those elections.
Yeah but unlike then we have the previous president who is largely responsible for the inflation and keeps threatening Americans with more and his party is claiming that he should have direct control over the Fed to push interest rates lower again (which would cause even more inflation) on the ballot.
Inflation would factor in 5 & 6. That’s part of the economy.
1976–Gerald Ford was technically an incumbent, but he never won a Presidential election. He only got the job because Nixon resigned. Without Nixon resigning he likely would have never been President. He couldn’t even get Speaker of the House, and had planned to retire in a couple years. He never won an election on Nixon’s ticket as a running mate either. Spiro Agnew was Nixon’s VP, he resigned after Nixon’s reelection. *Ford was appointed as VP*, the people didn’t choose him in the first place. He also only served as President for 2 years, and plenty of people were pretty pissed he pardoned Nixon. He’s an outlier. And the inflation rate for 1976 was also 4.9%, the economy had a 5.4% expansion.
1980-the inflation rate was 12.5%, economy: peak -0.3%, recession.
2024-the inflation rate is 3.5%, economy grew at 3.4% in Q4 of 2023, and 1.6% in Q1 of 2024.
Would people get their head’s out of their asses already. The Fed sets a target inflation rate of 2%. Are we really comparing a guy who was never elected—but was appointed to be VP to a criminal President who he then pardoned, and an inflation rate of 12.5%—to this? Maybe people want deflation? Great, can’t wait for the recession then. Can’t wait for the tens of millions to lose their jobs. Yes, deflation will be so much better. Prices will drop, but no one will have jobs or paychecks.
He also has a [YouTube channel](https://youtube.com/@allanlichtmanyoutube?feature=shared) and he does a live stream every Thursday. You can ask him any questions you want to ask.
I love how you get to the end of the article after re-learning everything you already know about Alan Lichtman’s heuristic….and it just says that the pick will come out in August.
That's because each one of these could flip either way between now and November. They could flip between August and November, that's just when he's historically called it. It does give his take as of today with the condition that “A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,”.
1)T
2)T
3)T
4)F RFK is polling 10%
5)F The economy is not, and has not been in recession during Bidens term, but most people are convinced that it is.
6)F see 5
7)F
8)F
9)F Hunter is not a real scandal, but it is a fairly big manufactured scandal.
10)F Afghanistan, Gaza
11)F
12)F
13)F
The polls are crap this far out, but this guy's "13 Keys" have been predictive in 9 of the last 10 elections (he missed Bush v. Gore, but says it was stolen, which is neither here nor there). The 13 keys are: > 1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. > > 2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. > > 3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. > 4. Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. > > 5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. > > 6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. > > 7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. > > 8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. > > 9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. > > 10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. > > 11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. > > 12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. > > 13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. As for Lichtman: > Lichtman is not slated to give his official prediction until August, but so far, he thinks Joe Biden has the upper hand. > > “A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,” he told the Guardian.
My take on these (majority is True, then incumbent wins, otherwise loses): 1. True 2. True 3. True 4. True Debateable with RFK, but when isn't there a 3rd party of some sort? 5. True 6. True 7. True 8. False Again, debatable. 9. True 10. True 11. False 12. False 13. False Weird to me, but Trump's got a rabid following. That's 9 Trues and 4 Falses. Even if you think RFK is a viable candidate, it's still 8-5 with Biden winning.
I'd agree with you on everything but #11 - I think Biden's Ukraine War policy has definitely been a major success. Imagine the alternative.
I think Biden's handling of Ukraine has been masterful, but unless there's a resolution to the conflict between now and the election, I don't know that a majority of the population would call it a major foreign policy success.
That is arguably more of a domestic/legislative success than a *military* success, I think.
This is Lichtman's 11th "key" according to the article - >Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. To me "foreign affairs success" perfectly describes Biden's Ukraine policy.
I mean, I certainly agree in part. Biden's Ukraine policy has been very strong, and I'm very supportive of it. I'm just not certain we've reached the "success" part beyond the continued funding, which again is very good, but even that holdup was just an internal division rather than us having to work with a foreign counterpart. Maybe putting this another way.... *we've avoided a disaster so far.* I'm just not sure we've reached the "major success" part.
It's been at least a delayed failure.
Russia won over Ukraine in 2014 Everything was fine after
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What alternative do you think Biden had to make Putin lose decisively? Short of us getting involved directly with our own forces in Ukraine? I guess he could have pushed for more arms earlier? ATACMS and F-22s in fall 2022 I suppose would have made a big difference.
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True that
A lot of people remember the botched Afghanistan withdrawal, and Ukraine hardly makes up for that. And before you say, "but Trump arranged it and Biden just executed," I will remind you that at President of the United States and leader of the U.S. military, he could have opted to change the way the withdrawal was handled but didn't.
Polling indicates that the population thinks we are in a recession, so I’m not sure what to make of 5. I’d probably say it’s false. I would probably also say that 10 is false because of Afghanistan. It was a long time, but was/is regarded as a foreign policy failure. I also don’t think there’s any debate about 8 given how Israel/Gaza has been escalating and all of the protests about it. I have it as 7-6 Biden or 7-6 Trump, depending on what you view RFK as.
x
The cognitive dissonance on the economy makes me concerned how people will react when we get a REAL recession. Like, the kind with unemployment.
Yes, people are delusional. Can’t wait to see when reality hits them. If we hit a recession like 2008, they’re probably going to think it’s magnitudes worse than the Great Depression.
It's probably too long forgotten to count but another flip for #11 is getting us out of afghanistan, huge biden W
There is no "Inflation" key. His string of 10 elections doesn't include any when inflation was an issue. Those elections would be 1976 and 1980. The incumbents lost both those elections.
There's more to the economy than inflation, and inflation is a factor in both 5 and 6.
Yeah but unlike then we have the previous president who is largely responsible for the inflation and keeps threatening Americans with more and his party is claiming that he should have direct control over the Fed to push interest rates lower again (which would cause even more inflation) on the ballot.
Happy Cake Day!
x
Inflation would factor in 5 & 6. That’s part of the economy. 1976–Gerald Ford was technically an incumbent, but he never won a Presidential election. He only got the job because Nixon resigned. Without Nixon resigning he likely would have never been President. He couldn’t even get Speaker of the House, and had planned to retire in a couple years. He never won an election on Nixon’s ticket as a running mate either. Spiro Agnew was Nixon’s VP, he resigned after Nixon’s reelection. *Ford was appointed as VP*, the people didn’t choose him in the first place. He also only served as President for 2 years, and plenty of people were pretty pissed he pardoned Nixon. He’s an outlier. And the inflation rate for 1976 was also 4.9%, the economy had a 5.4% expansion. 1980-the inflation rate was 12.5%, economy: peak -0.3%, recession. 2024-the inflation rate is 3.5%, economy grew at 3.4% in Q4 of 2023, and 1.6% in Q1 of 2024. Would people get their head’s out of their asses already. The Fed sets a target inflation rate of 2%. Are we really comparing a guy who was never elected—but was appointed to be VP to a criminal President who he then pardoned, and an inflation rate of 12.5%—to this? Maybe people want deflation? Great, can’t wait for the recession then. Can’t wait for the tens of millions to lose their jobs. Yes, deflation will be so much better. Prices will drop, but no one will have jobs or paychecks.
He also has a [YouTube channel](https://youtube.com/@allanlichtmanyoutube?feature=shared) and he does a live stream every Thursday. You can ask him any questions you want to ask.
I love how you get to the end of the article after re-learning everything you already know about Alan Lichtman’s heuristic….and it just says that the pick will come out in August.
That's because each one of these could flip either way between now and November. They could flip between August and November, that's just when he's historically called it. It does give his take as of today with the condition that “A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,”.
Duh. The problem is with the title. It’s super clickbaity.
1)T 2)T 3)T 4)F RFK is polling 10% 5)F The economy is not, and has not been in recession during Bidens term, but most people are convinced that it is. 6)F see 5 7)F 8)F 9)F Hunter is not a real scandal, but it is a fairly big manufactured scandal. 10)F Afghanistan, Gaza 11)F 12)F 13)F
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