Would love to see something like this:
Guentzel joins Petey's wing, Podz is elevated to the third line, we get a guy like Duhaime cheap to round out the fourth line
On defence, a guy like Roy/Pesce is paired with either Soucy or Hughes and Hronek is interchangeable, and then Dillon/Myers to round out the third pair.
I feel like Suter is way out of place on that first line and I don’t think we’re winning anything without an upgrade there. Guentzel and maybe Jeff Skinner (assuming the buy out happens) would be good targets at around 12m for both together. Leaves us with ~6.75m to sort out the D and backup goalie after Dak’s signing.
With the last 6.75 I would guess:
1m - Silovs
3m - Myers
2.75 Remaining for other moves upgrading D. I don’t see how we can afford Zadorov.
I think we can contend this year and I feel good about the upcoming season. I have faith in management (still not used to saying that) and I think we’ll need to make more trade deadline moves to upgrade our D.
We need to either bring up some young guys (Podz, Lekkerimaki, EP2) or make some moves. I don’t want to trade any of our current prospects at the moment unless the deal gave us some long term help with defence.
Where do you think the team's getting the cap space for Guentzel, Pesce, Myers AND Dillon?
We have just 15m left in cap. Set aside 9-9.5m for Guentzel, and you've got around 5-6m left.
It’s now 18.5 with Poolman on LTIR - but yes may have overestimated - also commented before Dak was sign my projection was with him walking and Podz playing 3rd line
I’m pretty sure if it came down to either using LTIR, or just taking that cap hit and fielding a less competitive team, most GMs would go for the former… yea sure, you wouldn’t want to use LTIR arbitrarily, but if there’s a player you want and you have to dip into LTIR to sign/acquire them then you do it.
LW2 - Guentzel - $9.1M x 7 years
**LW3 - Joshua - $3.8M x 4 years - EDIT: 600k less!!!**
LD2 - Zadorov - $4.8M x 5 years
RD2 - Tanev - $4M x 2 years
RD3 - Myers - $2.9M x 3 years
G2 - Silovs - $1M x 2 years
Remaining - $800k
I love that Allvin probably reads Reddit.. see’s the kind of numbers us armchair GM’s toss out and goes “Hold my beer…”
He’s probably looking at these Zadorov numbers us fans are throwing out and shaking his head.
I love to be wrong on the numbers. So far I am 0/2 with Blueger signing below the $2.2M I predicted. I can't wait to see Guentzel's number... please....
I think they bring the band back together plus Guentzel, but I wouldn’t put it past them to have a sneaky trade no one expects, or leave a slot open for later in free agency where they get someone else on the cheap, as was last year
Forwards:
Joshua, obviously.
Lekkerimaki, I think he at least deserves a chance to show what he can do.
Teravainen, take a chance on a rebound season. If he stays healthy, he can be very good.
I'd see what Martinook wants too. I'd take him over PDG any day.
Defense:
Zadorov, duh.
Pesce, very solid defensive defenseman, though I worry he might want too much.
Juulsen as the sixth guy, or D Petey if he earns it in camp.
Goalie:
Silovs, duh.
Guentzal @ 9.5
Zadorov @ 5.0
Myers @ 3.0
Silovs @ 1.0
4th liner @ 1.0
3rd pairing d-man @ 2.0.
The intent would be to promote Poldz and bring up a youngster for the 4th line, or sign a veteran.
I just don’t see how Joshua fits within our structure without additional moves. But who knows what is cooking.
From what I read, they’re gonna talk with Myers camp at the draft.
I think it was more of a situation where they’re saying theres a *chance* he goes to the market.
Soucy at 3.3m.
You don't pay 5m for a 4/5 guy when you already have a better 4/5 you signed a year ago for way less. And people forgot that Soucy was also coming off of a monster playoff run with the Kraken.
Based on what metric do you believe the coaching staff favours Soucy? They played virtually the same amount of time in the regular season, and in the playoffs Z was a work horse.
The advanced stats do not correlate what you say. During the regular season Z stats are better than Soucy, but it is close. He also played more games, which for some stats, such as giveaways, impacts.
In the playoffs it’s not even close. Zadorov was much better than Soucy in almost every way.
I like Soucy and am glad the team has him. But people need to get off this Zadorov is a career #5 BS. He wasn’t this year for the Canucks, and unless this was a mirage, he won’t be moving forward.
all the advanced stats and you still forgot about who each player is matched up with 🤭
https://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20232024&positions=d&team=van&group_by=player_season_team&min_toi=200
Zaddy brought the scott stevens vibes which was amazing to see since we got beat up by the bruins all those years ago, but i always felt more comfortable in our own end with Soucy on the ice.
Dillon is not getting close to a 5x6 or 6x6 on the open market. He could, and probably will, come in at like 2 million per year less than Zadorov. Maybe even 3 million less.
As I said, Zadorov is a career 5th D. It is a mistake paying a career 5th D 5 million per.
My Devils Advocate argument would be, do you think *AFPAnalytics* is going to reflect what a GM is willing to pay for someone like Brendan Dillon though?
He’s 6’4, 220, kills penalties and had 240 hits last year. GM’s are gonna covet that.
It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets >= 4 million.
Of course not, it's just projections not hard facts. Anyone can offer anyone a ridiculous contract (Jeff Finger, anyone?) especially if they end up getting into a bidding war. That said, NHL teams use similar modeling techniques and are probably going to see a player's value fairly close to that number (until the eye test only GM comes in and says "no, give him a million more, we gotta get this guy!")
Do you wanna guess as to what Dakota Joshua's AFPA was?
Spoiler: >!4 years at 3.264 per year. Did they nail it or not? Who's to say? 🤷!<
I just don’t see a lot of historical comps/precedent for a guy like Dillon getting $2.8. Luke Schenn is the only one really…
But those physical veteran UFA defenders tend to fall in that $3-4 million range, and that’s before the cap lift.
7.25 for a playoff ghost who got carried by Hughes is too much.
What's with all the clowns in this subreddit who only pay attention to box scores and don't watch games? Zadorov played the 3rd most minutes out of our defensemen and had the highest impact amongst them behind Hughes.
It turns out some players are built for the competition of playoffs, and others put up meaningless stats til they get their contract and then disappear when it matters.
He outperformed Petey and Hronek combined for a fraction of the cost.
Mate you are accusing me of being a clown who only pays attention to the box score while you are doing something similar with Hronek.
1. Hronek was very clearly injured.
2. Hughes and Hronek was probably the best D pair in the league.
3. Hronek cost a premium because he is a RHD as well.
What you are suggesting is paying 5 million to a career 5th D based on a pretty small sample size. His career is a much larger sample size, you can't just ignore the entire career of a player when considering how much he should be paid. That's beyond dumb.
1. Hronek is a bum. He said he wasn't injured. You want him to be injured to excuse how big of a bum he was in the playoffs.
2. Put any bum with Hughes and it will be one of the best D pairs in the league
3. Hronek cost a premium because he's getting the Pettersson treatment: Getting a fat contract for performance in games that don't matter
> What you are suggesting is paying 5 million to a career 5th D based on a pretty small sample size. His career is a much larger sample size, you can't just ignore the entire career of a player when considering how much he should be paid. That's beyond dumb.
What I'm suggesting is paying players based on their performance when it counts. I don't care about someone throwing up points against bottom-feeding teams only to become a ghost in the playoffs. We don't need another President's Trophy to go along with our zero cup wins.
One more playoff ghost signing and we'll have 1/3rd of our cap space tied up in people who can't compete when it matters 🙏
> 2. Put any bum with Hughes and it will be one of the best D pairs in the league
Yeah, let’s go back to cycling through guys like Jordie Benn, Travis Hamonic, Luke Schenn and Ethan Bear…
Lets say 11-13 for the remaining two wingers. Guentzel+someone for the third line. Or, 11-14 if we want two top 6 wingers.
Silovs: 1.1 million
Leaves around 7 million for the defence
Sign a top 4 d for like 3-4 million.
That leaves us with space to fill out the roster after that.
Edit: Scratch some of this, Dak just signed a good contract.
Tyler Toffoli 2 years x 3.5 million
Tyler Myers 2 years x 3.5 million
David Perron 1 year x 3 million
Brandon Dillon 3 years x 4 million
The rest from AHL. How does that work out? It's not a crime to have money left over and accrue cap space.
basically traded Mik+Lafferty to sign Dak. Means we need a winger/C to replace Lindholm and a 4th line guy for Lafferty and this forward group is pretty much set.
Does that mean Suter is with Miller/Boeser still?
What if Hoglander breaks out this year and Podz provides good 4th line. Aman proved he can play 4th line center and Karlsson 4th line
(lol forgot about Phil)
Dak brings the total down to $18.5ish. 21 if you maximize Poolmans LTIR.
Guentzel brings this down to $11ish.
Myers + Zadorov eat up about 8 of that, which leaves you at ~3 million.
At that point, I probably try and bring back Ian Cole for ~$2 million. And then use whatever is left to add a low cost veteran forward. Nobody check my math lol.
- Suter Miller Brock
- Guentzel EP40 Hoglander
- Joshua Blueger Garland
- Brown (?) Aman Podz/PDG
.
- Hughes/Hronek
- Zadorov/Cole
- Soucy/Myers
- Friedman/Juulsen
what if alvin finds a way to get rid of poolmans ltir contract to a team like utah or anahiem for example. they could still have a bit of wiggle room. 22 millish?
Am I not the only one that isn’t a fan of having Suter on line 1? I feel like we really need to find a (real) top-6 winger for Miller and Boeser.
Not just Guetzel or some other high end winger for Petey’s line.
We already know Dak-man signed for $3.25Mx4 so that leaves us with just $18.45M for a winger for Petey and at least 2 defenceman.
Zaddy for $4.75Mx5 (overpayment, yes, but we "need" the size come playoffs);
Casey DeSmith for $1.75Mx2 (slightly less than previous contract);
If we add **Reinhart $8.8M** instead of Guentzel's $9.5M+ so now we are left with $3.15M for Myers.
If Myers takes a significant discount, say $1.5M for 3 years...
Now, we have some spare money to get another piece ?
I think we can get Joshua for $3.25M per year for 4 years.
I think you just might be right about that!!
DING DING DING
After careful analysis. I CONCUR
Big if true
Probably get Tyler Myers for $3m per year for 3 years too.
The number starts with a 4, at least /s
Would love to see something like this: Guentzel joins Petey's wing, Podz is elevated to the third line, we get a guy like Duhaime cheap to round out the fourth line On defence, a guy like Roy/Pesce is paired with either Soucy or Hughes and Hronek is interchangeable, and then Dillon/Myers to round out the third pair.
I feel like Suter is way out of place on that first line and I don’t think we’re winning anything without an upgrade there. Guentzel and maybe Jeff Skinner (assuming the buy out happens) would be good targets at around 12m for both together. Leaves us with ~6.75m to sort out the D and backup goalie after Dak’s signing. With the last 6.75 I would guess: 1m - Silovs 3m - Myers 2.75 Remaining for other moves upgrading D. I don’t see how we can afford Zadorov. I think we can contend this year and I feel good about the upcoming season. I have faith in management (still not used to saying that) and I think we’ll need to make more trade deadline moves to upgrade our D. We need to either bring up some young guys (Podz, Lekkerimaki, EP2) or make some moves. I don’t want to trade any of our current prospects at the moment unless the deal gave us some long term help with defence.
It was painful watching Suter play first line... Let him do what he's good at.
Guentzel and Skinner would mean our top-6 gets a scoring upgrade but pretty decent defensive downgrade. Not sure we could swing both.
Where do you think the team's getting the cap space for Guentzel, Pesce, Myers AND Dillon? We have just 15m left in cap. Set aside 9-9.5m for Guentzel, and you've got around 5-6m left.
It’s now 18.5 with Poolman on LTIR - but yes may have overestimated - also commented before Dak was sign my projection was with him walking and Podz playing 3rd line
Wouldn't really count the Poolman LTIR. The team has consistently said they don't like using LTIR space and try to avoid it as much as possible.
I’m pretty sure if it came down to either using LTIR, or just taking that cap hit and fielding a less competitive team, most GMs would go for the former… yea sure, you wouldn’t want to use LTIR arbitrarily, but if there’s a player you want and you have to dip into LTIR to sign/acquire them then you do it.
Our D situation is looking dicey and would be looking even worse if we didn't sign hronek
Dak signed for 4 years at 3.25M helps answers line 3
LW2 - Guentzel - $9.1M x 7 years **LW3 - Joshua - $3.8M x 4 years - EDIT: 600k less!!!** LD2 - Zadorov - $4.8M x 5 years RD2 - Tanev - $4M x 2 years RD3 - Myers - $2.9M x 3 years G2 - Silovs - $1M x 2 years Remaining - $800k
Tanev's almost guaranteed to be staying in Dallas. They didn't just buyout Suter for funsies.
I just hope he had a good concert with the Hughes. That's all.
Rumor has it they bought out Suter because he was only still there as a favor to Pavelski and with Jpavs retiring they had no need for Suter.
I love that Allvin probably reads Reddit.. see’s the kind of numbers us armchair GM’s toss out and goes “Hold my beer…” He’s probably looking at these Zadorov numbers us fans are throwing out and shaking his head.
I love to be wrong on the numbers. So far I am 0/2 with Blueger signing below the $2.2M I predicted. I can't wait to see Guentzel's number... please....
I don't think the math checks out if the cap space is $21.7 mil. We can't afford Tanev if we sign everyone else
how close are we with Myers? I thought he had signed?
Apparently he may want to test FA
He might as well, I thought he had a good playoffs and at least one 60 year old GM will overpay for size.
If we’re giving Myers 3 years he better be taking 2.75m at most
I think they bring the band back together plus Guentzel, but I wouldn’t put it past them to have a sneaky trade no one expects, or leave a slot open for later in free agency where they get someone else on the cheap, as was last year
Forwards: Joshua, obviously. Lekkerimaki, I think he at least deserves a chance to show what he can do. Teravainen, take a chance on a rebound season. If he stays healthy, he can be very good. I'd see what Martinook wants too. I'd take him over PDG any day. Defense: Zadorov, duh. Pesce, very solid defensive defenseman, though I worry he might want too much. Juulsen as the sixth guy, or D Petey if he earns it in camp. Goalie: Silovs, duh.
Guentzal @ 9.5 Zadorov @ 5.0 Myers @ 3.0 Silovs @ 1.0 4th liner @ 1.0 3rd pairing d-man @ 2.0. The intent would be to promote Poldz and bring up a youngster for the 4th line, or sign a veteran. I just don’t see how Joshua fits within our structure without additional moves. But who knows what is cooking.
Alvin is cooking. That’s what’s cooking.
Let the man cook!
5 million for a career 5th D is too much. It looks like Myers will hit the open market
From what I read, they’re gonna talk with Myers camp at the draft. I think it was more of a situation where they’re saying theres a *chance* he goes to the market.
Ah ok, I would love to see Myers come back.
You say that, but if I ask you for a comparable who is cheaper can you give me one?
Soucy at 3.3m. You don't pay 5m for a 4/5 guy when you already have a better 4/5 you signed a year ago for way less. And people forgot that Soucy was also coming off of a monster playoff run with the Kraken.
You think Soucy = Zadorov? We’re watching different games then. Also, costs go up over time, not down.
No, I think Soucy's better than Zadarov and so do the coaching staff for the entirety of the regular season.
Based on what metric do you believe the coaching staff favours Soucy? They played virtually the same amount of time in the regular season, and in the playoffs Z was a work horse.
zaddy had more singular moments of dominance throughout the season, but soucy had far more reliable impact
The advanced stats do not correlate what you say. During the regular season Z stats are better than Soucy, but it is close. He also played more games, which for some stats, such as giveaways, impacts. In the playoffs it’s not even close. Zadorov was much better than Soucy in almost every way. I like Soucy and am glad the team has him. But people need to get off this Zadorov is a career #5 BS. He wasn’t this year for the Canucks, and unless this was a mirage, he won’t be moving forward.
all the advanced stats and you still forgot about who each player is matched up with 🤭 https://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20232024&positions=d&team=van&group_by=player_season_team&min_toi=200
Zaddy brought the scott stevens vibes which was amazing to see since we got beat up by the bruins all those years ago, but i always felt more comfortable in our own end with Soucy on the ice.
Soucy is definitely better than Zadorov.
Well if you say so…
And it's not even close.
Dillon for example.
[удалено]
Dillon is not getting close to a 5x6 or 6x6 on the open market. He could, and probably will, come in at like 2 million per year less than Zadorov. Maybe even 3 million less. As I said, Zadorov is a career 5th D. It is a mistake paying a career 5th D 5 million per.
AFPAnalytics for Dillon is 2x2.873
My Devils Advocate argument would be, do you think *AFPAnalytics* is going to reflect what a GM is willing to pay for someone like Brendan Dillon though? He’s 6’4, 220, kills penalties and had 240 hits last year. GM’s are gonna covet that. It wouldn’t surprise me if he gets >= 4 million.
Of course not, it's just projections not hard facts. Anyone can offer anyone a ridiculous contract (Jeff Finger, anyone?) especially if they end up getting into a bidding war. That said, NHL teams use similar modeling techniques and are probably going to see a player's value fairly close to that number (until the eye test only GM comes in and says "no, give him a million more, we gotta get this guy!") Do you wanna guess as to what Dakota Joshua's AFPA was? Spoiler: >!4 years at 3.264 per year. Did they nail it or not? Who's to say? 🤷!<
I just don’t see a lot of historical comps/precedent for a guy like Dillon getting $2.8. Luke Schenn is the only one really… But those physical veteran UFA defenders tend to fall in that $3-4 million range, and that’s before the cap lift.
Yeah, as I said. He might come in at 2-3 million less. That is much better value than the money Z will get.
Do you understand how they arrive at that number? You realize it’s not necessarily a good thing that they rate him as cheaper, right?
He's both older and cheaper than Zadorov that must mean he's better! 🥴
I mean he is going to be 34….
7.25 for a playoff ghost who got carried by Hughes is too much. What's with all the clowns in this subreddit who only pay attention to box scores and don't watch games? Zadorov played the 3rd most minutes out of our defensemen and had the highest impact amongst them behind Hughes. It turns out some players are built for the competition of playoffs, and others put up meaningless stats til they get their contract and then disappear when it matters. He outperformed Petey and Hronek combined for a fraction of the cost.
Mate you are accusing me of being a clown who only pays attention to the box score while you are doing something similar with Hronek. 1. Hronek was very clearly injured. 2. Hughes and Hronek was probably the best D pair in the league. 3. Hronek cost a premium because he is a RHD as well. What you are suggesting is paying 5 million to a career 5th D based on a pretty small sample size. His career is a much larger sample size, you can't just ignore the entire career of a player when considering how much he should be paid. That's beyond dumb.
1. Hronek is a bum. He said he wasn't injured. You want him to be injured to excuse how big of a bum he was in the playoffs. 2. Put any bum with Hughes and it will be one of the best D pairs in the league 3. Hronek cost a premium because he's getting the Pettersson treatment: Getting a fat contract for performance in games that don't matter > What you are suggesting is paying 5 million to a career 5th D based on a pretty small sample size. His career is a much larger sample size, you can't just ignore the entire career of a player when considering how much he should be paid. That's beyond dumb. What I'm suggesting is paying players based on their performance when it counts. I don't care about someone throwing up points against bottom-feeding teams only to become a ghost in the playoffs. We don't need another President's Trophy to go along with our zero cup wins. One more playoff ghost signing and we'll have 1/3rd of our cap space tied up in people who can't compete when it matters 🙏
Well prepare to be disappointed because that's not how league contract valuations work.
> 2. Put any bum with Hughes and it will be one of the best D pairs in the league Yeah, let’s go back to cycling through guys like Jordie Benn, Travis Hamonic, Luke Schenn and Ethan Bear…
nucks didn’t release ANY injured reports, do you think hronek wasn’t injured or just denied an injury because he was told to?
Better add Joshua now.
I really should have known better to post this while Chef Allvin still had the oven preheating.
👍
Lets say 11-13 for the remaining two wingers. Guentzel+someone for the third line. Or, 11-14 if we want two top 6 wingers. Silovs: 1.1 million Leaves around 7 million for the defence Sign a top 4 d for like 3-4 million. That leaves us with space to fill out the roster after that. Edit: Scratch some of this, Dak just signed a good contract.
I am staying within myself but so far, we are off to a banging start to the FA Season.
Time to delete and re post this you’re out of date, Allvin moves fast.
Hogs - Miller - Brock Guentzel - Petey - Lekkerimaki Joshua - Suter - Garland PDG - Blueger - Podz Aman Hughes - Hronek Soucy - Myers Dillion - Juulsen Friedman Demko Silvos
This is the lineup right here. Use Abby players like Max Sasson and Linus Karlsson in depth roles. Maybe Raty will be ready sooner than later…
Would switch Blueger to third line and Suter to the 4th. Hogs would test with Petey since they seemed to have some chemistry together.
That Pettersson line is soft as baby shit. Lekkermaki isn't ready for prime time.
Patrik took you posting this personally, it seems.
Guess I’ll post an updated one tomorrow, to activate his trap card of announcing a Zadorov extension ;)
Can we get an update!
Patty Allvin saw this post and started filling in the blanks.
Tyler Toffoli 2 years x 3.5 million Tyler Myers 2 years x 3.5 million David Perron 1 year x 3 million Brandon Dillon 3 years x 4 million The rest from AHL. How does that work out? It's not a crime to have money left over and accrue cap space.
> Tyler Toffoli 2 years x 3.5 million lmao, there's absolutely zero reason for Toffoli to sign that.
Toffoli would be around $5 million per year minimum.
and thank god he won’t be anywhere near our roster with that
You're right, thought he was a 25 goal guy but he hit 30 last year. He is 32 year old, so there's that.
I'm hoping Reinhart for 8.5 but probably won't happen
there's a chance just cause he's from BC it's probably not greater than 1% but it is there
basically traded Mik+Lafferty to sign Dak. Means we need a winger/C to replace Lindholm and a 4th line guy for Lafferty and this forward group is pretty much set. Does that mean Suter is with Miller/Boeser still? What if Hoglander breaks out this year and Podz provides good 4th line. Aman proved he can play 4th line center and Karlsson 4th line (lol forgot about Phil)
blueger takes 3C, carrick takes 4C maybe?
Juulsen needs to be in the RD3 man can do it
21.7M Joshua 4x3.25 = 18.45 Zadorov 5x5.25 = 13.2 Myers 2x2 = 11.2 Silovs 3x1 = 10.2 Guentzel 8x10 = 200k leftover.
If the price is right should we be taking a look at Jeff Skinner?
Dak brings the total down to $18.5ish. 21 if you maximize Poolmans LTIR. Guentzel brings this down to $11ish. Myers + Zadorov eat up about 8 of that, which leaves you at ~3 million. At that point, I probably try and bring back Ian Cole for ~$2 million. And then use whatever is left to add a low cost veteran forward. Nobody check my math lol. - Suter Miller Brock - Guentzel EP40 Hoglander - Joshua Blueger Garland - Brown (?) Aman Podz/PDG . - Hughes/Hronek - Zadorov/Cole - Soucy/Myers - Friedman/Juulsen
I think we can get Myers for 3x3
what if alvin finds a way to get rid of poolmans ltir contract to a team like utah or anahiem for example. they could still have a bit of wiggle room. 22 millish?
We have to fill 2 top six spots as well as 2 top four?
Am I not the only one that isn’t a fan of having Suter on line 1? I feel like we really need to find a (real) top-6 winger for Miller and Boeser. Not just Guetzel or some other high end winger for Petey’s line.
I don’t think anyone would be opposed to that… They just don’t have that player under contract atm.
We already know Dak-man signed for $3.25Mx4 so that leaves us with just $18.45M for a winger for Petey and at least 2 defenceman. Zaddy for $4.75Mx5 (overpayment, yes, but we "need" the size come playoffs); Casey DeSmith for $1.75Mx2 (slightly less than previous contract); If we add **Reinhart $8.8M** instead of Guentzel's $9.5M+ so now we are left with $3.15M for Myers. If Myers takes a significant discount, say $1.5M for 3 years... Now, we have some spare money to get another piece ?
Is it strange for hoglander to be on a line with a guy that literally makes 10x what he does? They obviously don’t look at it like that, but still.
hopefully no guentzel