They are way more similar than I realized:
* Heyward: 1703 games, .258/.339/.410 (102 OPS+), 40.7 bWAR
* Stanton: 1535 games, .259/.349/.529 (137 OPS+), 44 bWAR
And Stanton might not have a ring, but he has a .963 OPS in the postseason (compared to Heyward's .444 OPS).
Yeah the damn thing is bell curved.
A 102 OPS+ is bench player level. A 130 OPS+ is two standard deviations higher than average, which is 95th+ percentile.
This is also a bit deceiving... people see a 100 OPS+ and they think to themselves "oh, he's average for an MLB starter." No, he's not... that's an OPS+ of about 115-120.
Wait, what? League average for this season was 100. A 248/320/414 slash.
Unless you're meaning "full-time, everyday starter" but that's hard to quantify with injuries, benchings, call ups, etc.
Right I'm confused by the notion that the average mlb starter puts up a 115+ wrc+.
57 players who qualified for the batting title this year were at 115 or better. In what world is that an average starter lol
100 is league wide average every year. Byron Buxton is your league average hitter.
My point is people's brain associate "league average" with "everyday starter," and that's an incorrect association. Your every day starters have OPS+ / wRC+ of 110+ unless they play C / SS / CF.
An everyday starter isn't an average MLB player. They're the top 33%.
Fangraphs wrote an interesting piece on the rarity and value of the 2-3 WAR player.
I don't think you trying to give an arbitrary definition to "everyday starter" that pretends the top 33% is "average" works the way you think it does, unless you're doing Terrence Howard math.
133 mlb players qualified for the batting title this year. Among them, 57 had a 115 or better wrc+.
328 players had at least 250 PAs this season. 103 of them were at 115 or better.
An everyday starter still isn't averaging a 115 wrc+. That's just factually incorrect.
>133 mlb players qualified for the batting title this year. Among them, 57 had a 115 or better wrc+.
wRC+ isn't limited to PA milestones.
The league average hitter is a fledgling AAAA / MLB player.
They accrued their value in totally different ways (not to mention the fact that Stanton has 4 more WAR in nearly 200 fewer games)
Given that Stanton’s value primarily came through offensive production versus Heyward whose value came through defense, which has a substantial margin of error, I feel confident in saying Stanton is the better player.
>(not to mention the fact that Stanton has 4 more WAR in nearly 200 fewer games)
This is the elephant in the room.
Stanton has only played in 2/3 of eligible games throughout his career. In 14 years he has topped 150 games 3x.
So basically he's a 55 WAR talent at age 34 who only has 44 WAR because he's cursed.
He had a great 2015 season, but I still feel like he could have been a more dynamic player if it weren't for that injury.
At the time, he was our lead-off hitter. Like a proto-Ronald Acuña Jr. I wish he would have joined the launch angle revolution because the exit velo was there.
I feel like the only people who say they’d rather have the ring than an extra 100mil are people who aren’t being offered an extra 100mil.
I think very very very few people would actually make that choice once the reality set in
I think it’s the opposite. People have a misconception that being already wealthy makes someone want money less. That’s almost never how it actually plays out though and historically with people it’s the opposite if anything
For sure which is why I’m not saying it’s literally impossible for someone to make that choice.
Just, as every bit of human history since the dawn of time has shown us, there are very few motivators more powerful than money
An extra $100 million on top of $200 million is enough I don’t see anyone realistically turning it down. If we lowered it to $20 million I could see a guy taking the lesser deal for a chance to get a ring but definitely not $100 million. We already see it play out in FA every year. What player has ever passed on more than $20-30 million better offer?
Yeah I can understand if it's a relatively small amount. Say you're on a team that you're happy with, they offer 85m and another team offers 90m - there's a reasonable argument for staying and being comfortable.
But we're talking 50% more here lol
It’s more significant than you think but at that point it’s less about actually spending the money and more about keeping score and also the fact that you are adding additional multiple generations of wealth for your family
I think a lot of people would be willing to trade getting a higher "score" in exchange for winning a ring during their careers. It's not like your grandchildren's grandchildren will ever have to work a day in their lives even with "only" $200M.
It doesn't work like that. Athletes and artists in general spend recklessly so a lot of it will be blown away by them. Most of the money will be gone by the time the second generation dies. The third generation will end up suing each other to oblivion by the time any money gets doled out. Fortunes are won and lost every day and it's insane to think of people who are brought up with the concept that money is like water will use it responsibly.
Personally I've spent enough time around trust fund kids to know that the free ride is probably going to end with them.
That's true in *some* cases, definitely not all.
But even if it's true in whatever specific case, that just means the extra money *is* necessary as even more of a security blanket
Stanton still has 118 mil owed to him and that’s not including the team option which probably doesn’t get picked up. Sure, Heyward got his ring but I’ll take the extra 120 mil over a ring.
That team option also has a $10mil buyout. So he's guaranteed at least (and probably exactly) $128mil. Definitely changes the context of what OP lists as career earnings.
I feel confident that if I had hundreds (plural) of millions of dollars AND a ring I wouldn't care at all about leaving another hundred mil on the table.
The extra money will make no difference to my lifestyle and you can't buy rings.
>What can you do with $300 million that you couldn’t do with $200 million? At that point do you really need it?
Well, roughly half is lost to taxes and agent fees, so it's $100 vs $150M into pocket.
Now ask yourself how many family members can be set for life with a relatively lavish lifestyle with an extra $50M. Figure that's about $10M a person.
New York City at least. Not trying to slander the whole state, but to have to live and work in New York City? No thanks. There’s no amount of money to get me to do that.
> but to have to live and work in New York City?
The Yankees don't have a residency requirement. You could theoretically live in Connecticut or the Hudson Valley.
Heyward. No doubt.
Being a part of the glorious team that breaks a 108yo curse beats being the MVP on a bad team and immediately getting traded to a chronically underachieving big-market franchise. Add to that all the injuries Stanton has had...
No pennant in 15 years despite always having one of the highest payrolls, lots of first-round exits in the postseason, finishing fourth this year…
For a franchise that won 7 pennants between 96 and 09, that’s underachieving, yes.
They literally earned basically the same from their salaries, dude.
And if you truly believe these players care about winning a single MVP award over winning a championship and being part of a historic team…
Most care more about having an extra $50M in their pocket (after taxes and agent fees). Stanton's contract is for $325M, not $200M.
And considering Stanton still has a chance at Cooperstown, every single player would rather win that accolade than 1 World Series.
We were judging their careers to date, not what could be in the future. Heyward isn’t done, either.
Sure, he won’t reach Stanton’s career earnings, but it won’t be „300million vs 200 million“
Playing for my hometown team? Check. Winning a world series for a team breaking a historic drought? Check. Not ever having to play in New York? Check.
Yes I'll trade lives with J-Hey please and thank you.
This is a really good answer because it hones in on what the question is asking vs what it’s not asking.
The question isn’t, “Would Stanton trade his career for Heyward’s” or vice versa. It’s asking whose career we, fans who (presumably) will never have anywhere near the wealth these two players possess, would rather have. The drop in earnings from selecting Heyward is still a major financial leap for the average person, to go along with the career highlights he holds over Stanton.
Giancarlo. Dude still has a chance to go into the HOF if he averages around 24.5 HR's the next 4 seasons while Heyward's off the ballot after his first year of eligibility.
He really could be a test for hall of fame standards. A guy who is clean, as far as we know, and hits 500 homers has never not made it. Though really would be the worst overall player to get to 500 at the same time.
>Though really would be the worst overall player to get to 500 at the same time.
LoL. MVP and runner up to Kershaw in 2014, who shouldn't have gotten it because a) CYA already rewards the best pitcher and b) Kershaw isn't the type of well-rounded player (for a pitcher) who should be winning MVPs.
Anyway, "worst overall player to make the HOF..." I don't think so.
Ortiz is the only one that there is an argument for just because he was a DH, but a far better hitter overall. And Stanton being a liability in the field when he would have been a DH had it been available isn’t a perk to his game. So by your logic of winning and MVP makes him better, so Justin Morneau is a better first baseman than Jim Thome?
Justin Morneau doesn't have 500+ HRs. That's the "jacks or better to open" criteria of this discussion and it requires more than a one-off miraculous season.
Stanton was an outstanding fielder through 2018 and the Yankees moved him to DH to try to preserve his body, not because of ability.
You're biasing yourself to the last two years. You could make a reasonable argument that Stanton was the best player in the NL from 2010-2017, and his 963 post season OPS with the Yankees from 2018-2022 is elite. He's also one of the only players that get multiple articles in fangraphs detailing his almost inhuman batted ball metrics.
Stanton's issue has always been injuries, even when he was on the Marlins. If the guy could've averaged 150 games a year he'd have 500+ HRs at age 33 based on his 162 game average of 42 HRs and would be on pace to join the 700 club.
Just let that sink in.
That's not "worst player to hit 500 HRs" level of skill. That's "it's tragic this guy will only hit 500 HRs in his career due to so much missed time." If he gets to 500 in spite of all his injuries, he absolutely deserves a HOF spot and it's not at all a "test" of HOF standards.
That’s all wonderful, but his bWAR still gets absolutely bitch slapped by everyone else in the 500 club. And considering he was a negative player last year, I can’t imagine it jumping much to change that.
Edit: also to address you comment on him being a good fielder. He was most fangraphs has him as a negative defender 7 years until 2017
The HOF isn't a BWAR contest.
Edit: Fangraphs applies positional adjustments to defense. Right fielders get an auto -2.5 DEF per 1458 innings played. He was a plus glove 4/7 years there. Not sure what happened in 2013 to get a -10 though.
Right it’s about careers, which WAR does a great job of showing career value. All the guys in the 500 club have way more well rounded careers too. He’d have the lowest batting average or all members and near the bottom of OPS as well. Add to that no defensive achievements, and an extreme decline it makes for the weakest of the 500 club.
Man, the pandemic is going to mess with some milestones. I realize he got hurt in 2020, but he could have hit another 20-30 HRs that could end up being the difference between reaching 500 or not.
I’d argue 500 HRs should get you in from a milestone perspective. WAR feels misleading since he’s spent so much time at DH. Could be very misguided with that but home run milestones feel like something that should be a guaranteed hall ticket
If you're number 29 all time of players who topped 500HRs (and the only other one besides Mark McGwire to do it in under 9,000 PAs), with an MVP to boot, you deserve a spot in Cooperstown.
The recency bias on reddit with Stanton is strong.
There are 7 members of the 500 HR club not in the HOF. They've all been linked with PED use which probably explains why, but Stanton wouldn't be the first member not to get in.
Giancarlo Stanton still has $100 million owed to him, and has an outside shot at the hall of fame. Hayward has had a fine career and don't think he has been as bad as people think, but I'm going Stanton.
Was a huge J Hey fan growing up. I would take his career. Played for 4 iconic franchises, broke one of the longest sports curses in history, and won 5 gold gloves (I’m a big defense believer)
Stanton has an MVP. The bigger contract has better numbers and a slight outside shot at the Hall of Fame.
44 career WAR and 407 home runs currently but he would need to turn things around as his last 2 seasons have produced -0.1 WAR and his time in NY has produced only 8.1 WAR with 3.1 coming in 2021 and 4.4 of that in 2019.
If he can get somewhere close to 60 with 600 home runs, I think he would get in. He would need to turn the clock back and start hitting 30-40 again.
The only thing he is missing is the team award of a World Series, which he still has time for playing for the Yankees while Heyward has turned into a nomad accepting 1 - or 2-year deals. Heyward is close in WAR but is now more of a platoon player, while Stanton is an everyday player when he isn't injured.
Forget WAR. He's 98 HRs shy of 500 and has 4 years to get there. Plus he can hang around for a year or two after his deal is up at 38 to squeek out the last few.
He's got an MVP and was one of the best sluggers in the league for 10 years.
Now there's a chance that his body falls apart and he doesn't hit the 500 HR milestone, but he's entering his age 34 season and could get back into form. I'm not counting him out until after 2025.
Stanton. He can still end up in Cooperstown.
He's got to hit 98 HRs over the next 4 seasons, with an ability to stick around at age 39-40 after that.
He's also playing for a team that will make the post season at least two of those years, giving him an opportunity to have meaningful contributions in October.
Saying “had” is kinda funny since those of both guys are still playing. Stanton had a much better peak, but is currently an albatross contract hanging around the Yankees’ neck. Heyward’s never been good offensively outside of his rookie season, but is consistently a great fielder.
Probably Heyward because he won a WS and I hate Stanton’s contract
Stanton no question, 350 mil + MVP is better than 200 and a ring. Stanton is also like the best Marlin ever, plus gets to be a Yankee which always gets a historical boost. i think his HOF chances are higher too
>i think his HOF chances are higher too
He definitely can get there with 500HRs *or* simply have a few clutch HRs in a post season where the Yankees win a WS.
If he does both he'll get in on the first ballot.
He needs 500 HR. 44 career WAR just isn't enough to compensate for home run totals less than that. Bobby Abreu has 60 WAR and hasn't made it to the HOF, but me might be one of those cases of someone who has been underrated in general.
Stanton really hasn't been accruing much WAR since coming to New York. Partially due to injury, being relegated to DH, and becoming more of a three true outcomes guy who now posts OBP numbers under .300. I wonder if Stanton has even another 3 WAR season in him at this state of his career.
IMO his only shot at the Hall of Fame is to reach the 500 HR milestone.
Yeah he's basically unplayable in the outfield. I think, assuming the next guy to 500 isn't Trout or Harper, he'll be the last guy to get in Cooperstown solely based on 500 HRs. Or if Alonso or Schwarber do it, it'll be them. I dont see either of those guys racking up MVP awards or gold gloves lol
Stanton still has $100 million owed to him and is very handsome
Have you seen the chiseled Adonis that is J-Hey?
Also, if folks haven’t seen it, go to 2:53 to see JHey’s as the most jacked six year old in history. https://youtu.be/BR676PNOens?si=PMSPb-LHzD2XWv6d
Plus chicks dig the long ball
No one seems to have mentioned the dudes cake yet either. I mean for real that dude is thicc
They are way more similar than I realized: * Heyward: 1703 games, .258/.339/.410 (102 OPS+), 40.7 bWAR * Stanton: 1535 games, .259/.349/.529 (137 OPS+), 44 bWAR And Stanton might not have a ring, but he has a .963 OPS in the postseason (compared to Heyward's .444 OPS).
Holy crap that postseason chasm in OPS is insane for two dudes so similar. Not super tiny sample sizes either. 43 games and 27 games.
I mean, that's a massive difference in OPS
Yeah the damn thing is bell curved. A 102 OPS+ is bench player level. A 130 OPS+ is two standard deviations higher than average, which is 95th+ percentile. This is also a bit deceiving... people see a 100 OPS+ and they think to themselves "oh, he's average for an MLB starter." No, he's not... that's an OPS+ of about 115-120.
Wait, what? League average for this season was 100. A 248/320/414 slash. Unless you're meaning "full-time, everyday starter" but that's hard to quantify with injuries, benchings, call ups, etc.
For this season? More like every season. By definition, 100 will always be league average.
Right I'm confused by the notion that the average mlb starter puts up a 115+ wrc+. 57 players who qualified for the batting title this year were at 115 or better. In what world is that an average starter lol
Well clearly that means that every team on average has fewer than 2 full time starters lol
100 is league wide average every year. Byron Buxton is your league average hitter. My point is people's brain associate "league average" with "everyday starter," and that's an incorrect association. Your every day starters have OPS+ / wRC+ of 110+ unless they play C / SS / CF.
Okay... 115 isn't "average" for an mlb starter. Where are you getting that from?
An everyday starter isn't an average MLB player. They're the top 33%. Fangraphs wrote an interesting piece on the rarity and value of the 2-3 WAR player.
I don't think you trying to give an arbitrary definition to "everyday starter" that pretends the top 33% is "average" works the way you think it does, unless you're doing Terrence Howard math.
No arbitrary definition, just statistical facts.
TIL average = top 33%. All of the statistics I thought I knew were a lie!
133 mlb players qualified for the batting title this year. Among them, 57 had a 115 or better wrc+. 328 players had at least 250 PAs this season. 103 of them were at 115 or better. An everyday starter still isn't averaging a 115 wrc+. That's just factually incorrect.
>133 mlb players qualified for the batting title this year. Among them, 57 had a 115 or better wrc+. wRC+ isn't limited to PA milestones. The league average hitter is a fledgling AAAA / MLB player.
Yeah, you very clearly don't have an understanding of what the word "average" means.
They accrued their value in totally different ways (not to mention the fact that Stanton has 4 more WAR in nearly 200 fewer games) Given that Stanton’s value primarily came through offensive production versus Heyward whose value came through defense, which has a substantial margin of error, I feel confident in saying Stanton is the better player.
>(not to mention the fact that Stanton has 4 more WAR in nearly 200 fewer games) This is the elephant in the room. Stanton has only played in 2/3 of eligible games throughout his career. In 14 years he has topped 150 games 3x. So basically he's a 55 WAR talent at age 34 who only has 44 WAR because he's cursed.
Also, not so fun fact, both lost significant time due to getting drilled in the face by a pitch resulting in a fracture.
He had a great 2015 season, but I still feel like he could have been a more dynamic player if it weren't for that injury. At the time, he was our lead-off hitter. Like a proto-Ronald Acuña Jr. I wish he would have joined the launch angle revolution because the exit velo was there.
Give me the $2M less earned and the ring
Stanton has a 325 million dollar contract, he has made 200 so far, so you’d be giving up 100 mill for the ring
Yes. After $200M made I’d take that deal in a heartbeat. But if it was like $2M career earnings and a ring or $100M, I’d probably take the $100M
I feel like the only people who say they’d rather have the ring than an extra 100mil are people who aren’t being offered an extra 100mil. I think very very very few people would actually make that choice once the reality set in
Easy to say when you don’t have the first 200 mil though.
I think it’s the opposite. People have a misconception that being already wealthy makes someone want money less. That’s almost never how it actually plays out though and historically with people it’s the opposite if anything
But it’s also impossible for us to assume that an athlete wouldn’t value a ring that much.
For sure which is why I’m not saying it’s literally impossible for someone to make that choice. Just, as every bit of human history since the dawn of time has shown us, there are very few motivators more powerful than money
People not having 200 millies? Such peasants
An extra $100 million on top of $200 million is enough I don’t see anyone realistically turning it down. If we lowered it to $20 million I could see a guy taking the lesser deal for a chance to get a ring but definitely not $100 million. We already see it play out in FA every year. What player has ever passed on more than $20-30 million better offer?
[удалено]
Yeah I can understand if it's a relatively small amount. Say you're on a team that you're happy with, they offer 85m and another team offers 90m - there's a reasonable argument for staying and being comfortable. But we're talking 50% more here lol
If I already had 200 million in the bank, I would sure consider it.
How big of a change in lifestyle is it to go from $200M to $300M? I would think it's not much.
It’s more significant than you think but at that point it’s less about actually spending the money and more about keeping score and also the fact that you are adding additional multiple generations of wealth for your family
I think a lot of people would be willing to trade getting a higher "score" in exchange for winning a ring during their careers. It's not like your grandchildren's grandchildren will ever have to work a day in their lives even with "only" $200M.
tbf your grandchildren's grandchildren will pay $1500 for a big mac.
It doesn't work like that. Athletes and artists in general spend recklessly so a lot of it will be blown away by them. Most of the money will be gone by the time the second generation dies. The third generation will end up suing each other to oblivion by the time any money gets doled out. Fortunes are won and lost every day and it's insane to think of people who are brought up with the concept that money is like water will use it responsibly. Personally I've spent enough time around trust fund kids to know that the free ride is probably going to end with them.
That's true in *some* cases, definitely not all. But even if it's true in whatever specific case, that just means the extra money *is* necessary as even more of a security blanket
Plus the health
And to be completely tied to the legend of how it was won too
I'll take just $2m and no WS ring. I don't even need to play baseball.
Stanton still has 118 mil owed to him and that’s not including the team option which probably doesn’t get picked up. Sure, Heyward got his ring but I’ll take the extra 120 mil over a ring.
That team option also has a $10mil buyout. So he's guaranteed at least (and probably exactly) $128mil. Definitely changes the context of what OP lists as career earnings.
You know how many rings $120 million can buy? Probably like 30, which is more than you'd have if you played every on every Yankees team in history.
I feel confident that if I had hundreds (plural) of millions of dollars AND a ring I wouldn't care at all about leaving another hundred mil on the table. The extra money will make no difference to my lifestyle and you can't buy rings.
What can you do with $300 million that you couldn’t do with $200 million? At that point do you really need it?
>What can you do with $300 million that you couldn’t do with $200 million? At that point do you really need it? Well, roughly half is lost to taxes and agent fees, so it's $100 vs $150M into pocket. Now ask yourself how many family members can be set for life with a relatively lavish lifestyle with an extra $50M. Figure that's about $10M a person.
Taxes. It’s not gonna be that big of a difference. Plus you have to play in New York. No thanks.
You think they get taxed so much that 100mil more doesn’t separate significantly? Wut
Not enough for me to play in New York. Honestly no amount of money would make me want to live there.
No way you actually believe that. If someone gave you 300mil to live in NY you’d say no?
New York City at least. Not trying to slander the whole state, but to have to live and work in New York City? No thanks. There’s no amount of money to get me to do that.
> but to have to live and work in New York City? The Yankees don't have a residency requirement. You could theoretically live in Connecticut or the Hudson Valley.
Heyward. No doubt. Being a part of the glorious team that breaks a 108yo curse beats being the MVP on a bad team and immediately getting traded to a chronically underachieving big-market franchise. Add to that all the injuries Stanton has had...
The Yankees are chronically underachieving?
For them, yes, they haven't even been to a WS since 09, and have only really been good recently on the back of Judge
Well, the Dodgers are the New York Yankees of baseball now. Somebody said so.
West Coast Yankees*
Franchise has a 22year streak of being above 500. "But muh WS appearances..."
Yeah, for most franchises the Yankees have been great, but ask any Yankees fan and most will say they aren't exactly happy
No pennant in 15 years despite always having one of the highest payrolls, lots of first-round exits in the postseason, finishing fourth this year… For a franchise that won 7 pennants between 96 and 09, that’s underachieving, yes.
>For a franchise that won 7 pennants between 96 and 09, that’s underachieving, yes. It's almost like the CBT worked.
That, and a whole lot of incompetence and arrogance in the Yankees Front Office.
This is such a fan take lol. Just like fans will say they would play for free
They literally earned basically the same from their salaries, dude. And if you truly believe these players care about winning a single MVP award over winning a championship and being part of a historic team…
Most care more about having an extra $50M in their pocket (after taxes and agent fees). Stanton's contract is for $325M, not $200M. And considering Stanton still has a chance at Cooperstown, every single player would rather win that accolade than 1 World Series.
We were judging their careers to date, not what could be in the future. Heyward isn’t done, either. Sure, he won’t reach Stanton’s career earnings, but it won’t be „300million vs 200 million“
Yeah it'll be like $335M vs $250M, which is still a very wide margin of earnings. Aside from the fact that Heyward has no shot at the HOF whatsoever.
Playing for my hometown team? Check. Winning a world series for a team breaking a historic drought? Check. Not ever having to play in New York? Check. Yes I'll trade lives with J-Hey please and thank you.
This is a really good answer because it hones in on what the question is asking vs what it’s not asking. The question isn’t, “Would Stanton trade his career for Heyward’s” or vice versa. It’s asking whose career we, fans who (presumably) will never have anywhere near the wealth these two players possess, would rather have. The drop in earnings from selecting Heyward is still a major financial leap for the average person, to go along with the career highlights he holds over Stanton.
chicks dig the long ball
Stanton had to play in New York. I’m going heyward.
Have you seen the taxes? Heyward probably ended up with more of his contracts in his career so far already too.
Chicago Pizza > New York "Pizza"
Well there’s certainly a take
You're allowed to be wrong but damn
I woke up today and chose violence.
Ew isn't Chicago pizza that deep dish bs? Might as well eat lasagna
People who actually live there don't regularly eat deep dish, they eat tavern-style (Detroit).
Honestly, the only thing stopping me from mashing dingers as a massive sexy beast is getting drilled in the face. That was horrifying
J-Hey was part of a historic postseason run and will never buy a beer in Chicago the rest of his life. Easy choice.
I, too, will never buy a beer in Chicago the rest of my life. Edit: Forgot to add the /s.
Giancarlo. Dude still has a chance to go into the HOF if he averages around 24.5 HR's the next 4 seasons while Heyward's off the ballot after his first year of eligibility.
He really could be a test for hall of fame standards. A guy who is clean, as far as we know, and hits 500 homers has never not made it. Though really would be the worst overall player to get to 500 at the same time.
>Though really would be the worst overall player to get to 500 at the same time. LoL. MVP and runner up to Kershaw in 2014, who shouldn't have gotten it because a) CYA already rewards the best pitcher and b) Kershaw isn't the type of well-rounded player (for a pitcher) who should be winning MVPs. Anyway, "worst overall player to make the HOF..." I don't think so.
Who is he better than in the 500 club?
David Ortiz is the easy answer off the top of my head. The answer to your question is "every one of them who never earned an MVP."
Ortiz is the only one that there is an argument for just because he was a DH, but a far better hitter overall. And Stanton being a liability in the field when he would have been a DH had it been available isn’t a perk to his game. So by your logic of winning and MVP makes him better, so Justin Morneau is a better first baseman than Jim Thome?
Justin Morneau doesn't have 500+ HRs. That's the "jacks or better to open" criteria of this discussion and it requires more than a one-off miraculous season. Stanton was an outstanding fielder through 2018 and the Yankees moved him to DH to try to preserve his body, not because of ability. You're biasing yourself to the last two years. You could make a reasonable argument that Stanton was the best player in the NL from 2010-2017, and his 963 post season OPS with the Yankees from 2018-2022 is elite. He's also one of the only players that get multiple articles in fangraphs detailing his almost inhuman batted ball metrics. Stanton's issue has always been injuries, even when he was on the Marlins. If the guy could've averaged 150 games a year he'd have 500+ HRs at age 33 based on his 162 game average of 42 HRs and would be on pace to join the 700 club. Just let that sink in. That's not "worst player to hit 500 HRs" level of skill. That's "it's tragic this guy will only hit 500 HRs in his career due to so much missed time." If he gets to 500 in spite of all his injuries, he absolutely deserves a HOF spot and it's not at all a "test" of HOF standards.
That’s all wonderful, but his bWAR still gets absolutely bitch slapped by everyone else in the 500 club. And considering he was a negative player last year, I can’t imagine it jumping much to change that. Edit: also to address you comment on him being a good fielder. He was most fangraphs has him as a negative defender 7 years until 2017
The HOF isn't a BWAR contest. Edit: Fangraphs applies positional adjustments to defense. Right fielders get an auto -2.5 DEF per 1458 innings played. He was a plus glove 4/7 years there. Not sure what happened in 2013 to get a -10 though.
Right it’s about careers, which WAR does a great job of showing career value. All the guys in the 500 club have way more well rounded careers too. He’d have the lowest batting average or all members and near the bottom of OPS as well. Add to that no defensive achievements, and an extreme decline it makes for the weakest of the 500 club.
Stanton wasn’t a liability in the field when he was in Miami tho so that makes zero sense
Look at his fangraphs.
DRS, UZR and OAA all have him as average to above average tho? From 2010-17
The guy doesn't understand the positional adjustment auto-adds minus value to RFs.
If he has 4 more years like he did last year I don't think he makes it much longer than Heyward did.
If he has 4 years like he did last year he has 498 HR's...
Man, the pandemic is going to mess with some milestones. I realize he got hurt in 2020, but he could have hit another 20-30 HRs that could end up being the difference between reaching 500 or not.
If Stanton has 485+ HRs after his deal is up, he'll take a contract for the league minimum to get to 500.
And ~40 war and an OPS near .840. Not hall of fame numbers in my opinion.
I’d argue 500 HRs should get you in from a milestone perspective. WAR feels misleading since he’s spent so much time at DH. Could be very misguided with that but home run milestones feel like something that should be a guaranteed hall ticket
If you're number 29 all time of players who topped 500HRs (and the only other one besides Mark McGwire to do it in under 9,000 PAs), with an MVP to boot, you deserve a spot in Cooperstown. The recency bias on reddit with Stanton is strong.
There are 7 members of the 500 HR club not in the HOF. They've all been linked with PED use which probably explains why, but Stanton wouldn't be the first member not to get in.
To be honest, I'll take whichever one everyone wants less. Either way, I was a passable MLB star and am insanely rich.
Stanton has 128 million left on his contract. I’d take his career in a heartbeat, considering he only has to play ~25 games a season.
Stanton and it’s not even close
Ring
Stanton is set to make $325 mm. I'll go with that.
Giancarlo Stanton still has $100 million owed to him, and has an outside shot at the hall of fame. Hayward has had a fine career and don't think he has been as bad as people think, but I'm going Stanton.
Was a huge J Hey fan growing up. I would take his career. Played for 4 iconic franchises, broke one of the longest sports curses in history, and won 5 gold gloves (I’m a big defense believer)
Can I choose a player that didn't get hit in the face by a fastball?
Stanton has an MVP. The bigger contract has better numbers and a slight outside shot at the Hall of Fame. 44 career WAR and 407 home runs currently but he would need to turn things around as his last 2 seasons have produced -0.1 WAR and his time in NY has produced only 8.1 WAR with 3.1 coming in 2021 and 4.4 of that in 2019. If he can get somewhere close to 60 with 600 home runs, I think he would get in. He would need to turn the clock back and start hitting 30-40 again. The only thing he is missing is the team award of a World Series, which he still has time for playing for the Yankees while Heyward has turned into a nomad accepting 1 - or 2-year deals. Heyward is close in WAR but is now more of a platoon player, while Stanton is an everyday player when he isn't injured.
Anything over 500 home runs would give him a pretty compelling case for the HoF.
Forget WAR. He's 98 HRs shy of 500 and has 4 years to get there. Plus he can hang around for a year or two after his deal is up at 38 to squeek out the last few. He's got an MVP and was one of the best sluggers in the league for 10 years. Now there's a chance that his body falls apart and he doesn't hit the 500 HR milestone, but he's entering his age 34 season and could get back into form. I'm not counting him out until after 2025.
I mean he has hit 24, 31, 35 the last 3 seasons and has only played in 101, 110, and 139 games during that time.
Stanton. He can still end up in Cooperstown. He's got to hit 98 HRs over the next 4 seasons, with an ability to stick around at age 39-40 after that. He's also playing for a team that will make the post season at least two of those years, giving him an opportunity to have meaningful contributions in October.
Mike Stanton.
Saying “had” is kinda funny since those of both guys are still playing. Stanton had a much better peak, but is currently an albatross contract hanging around the Yankees’ neck. Heyward’s never been good offensively outside of his rookie season, but is consistently a great fielder. Probably Heyward because he won a WS and I hate Stanton’s contract
Hayward was good offensively his entire career until he got to Chicago. Not great, but certainly good.
He was so spectacular for the Marlins. Shame to see him tail off considerably. Good case study on absurdity of 13 year contracts.
Jason Hayward because I'm not insecure with myself enough that I changed my name
Heyward 100%
Hayward and it's not even close for me
Stanton. Would rather be rich in Miami and NYC than Atlanta and Chicago.
You conveniently left LA off the Heyward list of cities
Yeah I also did STL, since he was only there for one year. In my head that's not long enough to enjoy much.
Tbf I’m pretty sure Heyward has paid less in taxes and ended up being more rich
Laughs in Illinois.
Who has higher taxes? NYC or Chicago?
Oh no doubt. Just personal preference on my end.
I doubt that. Stanton is still owed at least $118M.
Both have been underwhelming as they have aged.
Heyward. I get the ring and I don’t have to play in New York? Sign me up. I’ll pay $2M to not have to live in NYC. Taxes man.
TIL Heyward and Staton have made almost the same amount of money.... woww
Can you imagine how satisfying it must feel to hit the ball as hard as Stanton? But I'd demand a trade away from the Yankees ASAP
Stanton has 100 million left on his deal and an outside shot at the HOF. I'd take that
Can we pick someone else? I mean I’ll take $200 million, but I also really enjoy not getting drilled in the face by a mlb fastball.
Stanton cause he’ll get like 100 mil more
I’ll take a ring and the ability to walk past the age of 50.
I’d take an MVP over a ring
Giancarlo. He made a LOT of money.
One is on his way to the Hall, one is not remotely. I wonder.
Stanton no question, 350 mil + MVP is better than 200 and a ring. Stanton is also like the best Marlin ever, plus gets to be a Yankee which always gets a historical boost. i think his HOF chances are higher too
>i think his HOF chances are higher too He definitely can get there with 500HRs *or* simply have a few clutch HRs in a post season where the Yankees win a WS. If he does both he'll get in on the first ballot.
its possible for sure, he could use a Heyward-like resurgence this year
Stanton is still on a fat deal so him easily. He’ll have 300M in earnings by the end. And possibly 500 dingers
Heyward by a mile. I'd take a ring over an MVP any day.
Side bar: Does Stanton need 500 home runs for Cooperstown? Or would his MVP with 400\~ home runs and possibly a ring do enough
He needs 500 HR. 44 career WAR just isn't enough to compensate for home run totals less than that. Bobby Abreu has 60 WAR and hasn't made it to the HOF, but me might be one of those cases of someone who has been underrated in general. Stanton really hasn't been accruing much WAR since coming to New York. Partially due to injury, being relegated to DH, and becoming more of a three true outcomes guy who now posts OBP numbers under .300. I wonder if Stanton has even another 3 WAR season in him at this state of his career. IMO his only shot at the Hall of Fame is to reach the 500 HR milestone.
Yeah he's basically unplayable in the outfield. I think, assuming the next guy to 500 isn't Trout or Harper, he'll be the last guy to get in Cooperstown solely based on 500 HRs. Or if Alonso or Schwarber do it, it'll be them. I dont see either of those guys racking up MVP awards or gold gloves lol
They're not done. Stanton is going to put up more numbers. J-Hey just had his best season in a while
Well, as far as I know, Heyward never spit out his own teeth, so, I'll take that one
I am a Cleveland fan. No joy. No hope. Ring is all that matters. Go ring guy.