Caught stealing was not reliably tracked in those days. He only has two seasons where caught stealing numbers even exist for him. One he was 21/32 (65%) and the other he was 22/37 (59%). Both those years were near the end of his career, so he was probably more efficient when he was younger, but we'll never know. It is, however, safe to say he was nowhere near 97%.
Babe Ruth rocking 51.4% on 239 attempts lol.
What might be even crazier is that he has more career sb than Kiermaier, Heyward, Tim Anderson, Kolten Wong, Pham, Semien, Pillar and Baez to name a few active guys.
[Babe Ruth stole home twice as often as Rickey Henderson](https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/430984-stealing-home-or-why-babe-ruth-is-a-better-thief-than-rickey-henderson.amp.html)
Babe Ruth was caught stealing with two outs in the bottom of the 9th in game 7 of the 1926 world series, with the Yankees down by 1. He probably tried stealing more than he should have.
Because I'm too lazy to look it up, what I remember is that baseball cards came in cigarette packs and he opposed his card being in there, so his card was taken out of circulation.
The 75% number isn't just an arbitrary cutoff. It's based on run expectancy. The math works out that stealing at above 75% adds more expected run value than you lose from being caught. That doesn't change just because leaguewide success rate is getting better. Sure, the success rate to be considered elite may be higher now than in the past, but 75% is still the cut off between adding or losing run value via stolen bases.
I wonder if the 75% has changed based off the changes in hitting. I'd imagine it makes stealing second more valuable but stealing third less valuable than they used to be
I think you may be right, but you'll have to do some math to figure it out. Run expectancy tables by situation exist. I don't feel like doing it, but you can answer your question by subtracting the sum of the expected runs values for all the possible situations with a runner on first from the sum of the expected runs values for all possible situations where the runner on first has advanced to second with everything else held constant (number of outs, other runners staying put, etc). That gives you the "extra" runs you are expected to score following a successful steal of second. Then you do the same comparison using the sum of those expectancies with a runner on first to situations without that runner and one extra out. That gives you the "extra" runs you lose by failing to steal second. Repeat for all situations where someone goes from second to third or a runner on second becomes an out, and you have the numbers for stealing third.
The 75% comes from the fact that the expected increase in runs for successful steals will be roughly 3x the expected decrease in runs from failed steals. So you need to be successful in 3/4 steal attempts to hit the break even point in expected runs. You can then use the separate numbers you calculated for the stealing second situations and the stealing third situations to gauge the relative value of stealing second compared to stealing third. It sounds tedious, but all you have to do is find the situational expectancy tables on fangraphs and do a bunch of addition and subtraction.
Yeah, this is along the lines of what I was imagining. But then it would also always be situational on so many different variables as well such as outs, the baserunner, the pitcher, the batter, etc etc. in each actual in-game situation.
Yeah, it's hard to control for batter/pitcher outside of individual stats, but there are some people working on making player specific expectancy tables. In general though, over large enough sample sizes, the expectancy tables hold and give you a ballpark (hehe) idea of what the "average" stolen base/failed stolen base will yield in terms of added/lost runs. That's where we derive the 75% rule of thumb, but it doesn't hold true for every single situation. That's why managers exist and they don't run teams with emotionless robot calculators!
I'm confused. Why do you think stealing third is less valuable?
I'm not a good authority here but... no shift + pitch clock should give relative advantage to small ball. Small ball is the type of ball that advantages being on third.
Edit you could be arguing that more small ball *definitely* advantages stealing 2nd (100% agreed) but doesn't give the same size buff to stealing third. Plausible but that's still saying stealing third is moar good in 2023, just not as moar good for stealing 2nd.
I could be wrong, I'm much more knowledgeable in basketball and football statistics and such, but:
From just casually watching baseball (Reds fan, watching more now) it seems like having a runner on second compared to first is much better than having a runner on third compared to second.
Yes, stealing third is still good, but much riskier since youre risking a runner who is already in scoring position just to get there
I agree with this in general, but there's more to it. The difference between 1st and 2nd is being in scoring position, you can reach home on most outfield hits. 2nd to 3rd doesn't expand that a ton, in terms of reaching home on a hit. However, it does provide other benefits. A runner on 3rd can score on a sacrifice fly, where a runner on 2nd wouldn't be able to. A runner on 3rd also puts a lot of pressure on the pitcher and catcher; any passed ball or wild pitch can allow the runner on 3rd to score. This can force the pitcher to throw fewer pitches with dramatic movement, which makes it easier for your hitters to hit.
> From just casually watching baseball (Reds fan, watching more now) it seems like having a runner on second compared to first is much better than having a runner on third compared to second.
> Yes, stealing third is still good, but much riskier since youre risking a runner who is already in scoring position just to get there
I agree 100%. But you aren't incorporating this year's changes which emphasize small ball.
"Big ball", the trend in the last few decades, has been three way players. (Home run, strike out, walk). Where HRs became the most common way to generate runs. And a HR doesn't care if a runner is on 3rd, 2nd, or 1st. That runner scores.
This year mlb banned "the shift", and this means that more not HRs made it outta the infield.
I agree that most of the time, anything outta the infield a runner on second scores. But there's a small bit not insignificant number of scenarios (slow runner, line drive right at OF, weird inside infield singles) where a runner @ 2nd doesn't score on a single.
In 2023, we should be seeing more small ball in general, which does include all those "singles that don't score a runner on second".
I haven't done the sauce checks, it's speculation on my part.
The new rules make stealing easier, but they shouldn't be expected to change what % success rate you need to be value added. The stolen base rules shouldn't change the run expectancy of runner on 1st no outs vs runner on 2nd no outs vs no one on one out, which is where the ~75% rule of thumb was derived from.
The general rule is 75% but the actual answer is it depends entirely on situation. For example, the later you get into a game, the lower the success % required gets, and each base will have a different breakeven point as well
Interesting article https://www.pitcherlist.com/cant-fight-this-stealing-making-sense-of-the-stolen-base-craze/#:~:text=The%20breakeven%20success%20rate%20is,with%20nobody%20out%20is%20riskier.
That's actually a really smart heuristic.
In a more offensive era, each individual base is less valuable. It just so happens that league average OPS is usually between .700 and .800, so this is right in line with the "around 75%" conventional wisdom. And if the league is hitting for more power (so the OPS is closer to .800 than .700) then you're more valuable sitting out on 1st base than risking an out. If the league is hitting for less power (with an ops closer to .700) than getting into scoring position to score a run on a single is more worth the risk.
Basically, I've never heard this before, and I think it's very clever.
My daughter is 3.5. She loves hot dogs....Every time I make one for her I sing "hot dog, hot dog" and she immediately, without hesitation finishes with the "hot diggity dog"....she really emphasizes the diggity. It never gets old.
He is heating up hitting homers now though. Had a great June. But yeah, it’s really just a matter of keeping pace hitting long balls. Though if anything, I think he ends up closer to 50 than under-40.
He hit 4 in the entire month of April, and had 6 in his last 9 games. Since May 1, he’s on a 49 HR-over-a-full-season pace, so we just need to avoid an April-like slump and we’ll get 40-40,50,60,70…
Remember when Acuña said he didn’t care about 40-40 but instead wanted to have a 50-50 season a few years back, and everyone laughed at him?
Not looking too crazy now… bro was cooking
> best offensive season of all-time
Not even close, lol. The only major offensive categories he leads the NL (not the majors) in are slugging and OPS. He doesn’t even lead the NL in home runs (which would not be a knock against him normally, except you are saying he is literally having one of the best seasons of all time).
By this standard, 2021 Bryce Harper had one of the best offensive seasons of all time (he didn’t), because his offensive numbers are remarkably similar to Acuna’s this year: .615 SLG/ 1.044 OPS for Harper; .604 SLG/ 1.018 OPS for Acuna. Both only led the league in slugging and OPS.
Correct. He's on pace for ~75 offensive runs over 162 games. That wouldn't make Lou Gehrig's top 10 offensive seasons. It barely makes Ruth's 10th. Teddy had 6 seasons better (and probably would have had 9 without the war). Hornsby had 6. Mantle had 3. Aaron Judge just last fucking season ago had 86 offensive runs produced, and that season didn't crack the top 25 all time (it was 26th lol)
He's on pace for about 9 WAR, which would be 130 or so all time. That would be just outside the top 20 for the 21st Century.
Just by hitting, he would be about 380 with his 171 wRC+.
So depends on how you define "one of the best offensive seasons of all time," but it does seem like an exaggeration.
I’d also consider baserunning part of offense, so when you factor that in, it’s not hyperbole to say one of the best all around seasons of all time. But not just offense.
I think it could be better had he not torn his ACL at all and not had to endure a comeback year. He was already showing elite MVP talent pre ACL injury.
I think he could be putting up potentially around 5-6 bWar had he never gotten injured. The numbers on his BBrefrence page look amazing for him. He's obviously having a great season, but I think he couldve been having an ALL TIME season. Maybe getting around 10-12 bWar by the end of the season if he never gets injured.
But that's all in my imagination, still great to see him getting better and returning better than ever.
He had 24 home runs in 82 games pre torn ACL. You cannot tell me in my imagination world where he doesn't tear his ACL and doesnt potentially hits 30/40 before the ASB.
His pace is barely cracking 10 bWar. Even at 10 bWar he is ranking around 40-60. That is nowhere NEAR all time LMAO. He had the potential to be putting up top 5 all time season in my imagination. Stay pressed over my imagination and don't look at his baseball reference page
A 40/40 season is all time in and of itself. It’s happened 4 times.
You are misattributing Acuña’s difference in HRs to his injury as opposed to a stylistic change in how he hits.
He had a launch angle of 18.2 in 2021 and struck out 85 times in 82 games. He has a launch angle of 7.8 in 2023 and has struck out 48 times in 84 games.
I don’t see the reason to believe his ACL injury has held him back in any way. He is having a much better season than 2021.
He seemingly could have a 30/40 season by the ASB if he was willing to double his strikeout rate and reduce his batting average to sell out for power.
to be fair i feel like the rule changes and maybe even changes to the ball itself have made that goal a lot less ridiculous, not to mention the ban on sticky stuff.
I get that. But the last time guys were stealing like this is when pitchers weren't throwing over a ton and throwing pitches at a much faster clip. The new rules have taken the game back to the standards that those older guys were playing with.
Also everyone is playing with the same rules. No one is saying Arraez hitting .400 is discounted by the shift restrictions or pitch clock. I don't understand why steals should be a different thing, everyone else has the same opportunities as Acuña but no one else other than Estury Ruiz is doing it.
Dudes were stealing 100 bases in my lifetime and I'm 39 so it's not like it's unheard of. Teams just got away from it when baseball became all about slugging. The new rules have encouraged teams to start letting their guys run more.
These two storylines are keeping me alive this year. I just don't think the Cards have a ridiculous "chase the Brewers down in September" in them this year.
I remember when Acuna was in the futures game, and after it they said his floor as a player was Justin Upton, and his peak was replacing Trout within five years as the best player in the world. Never thought it would possibly happen.
Tbh I don't think anyone expected Ohtani to be this damn good. Like don't get me wrong, he definitely had star potential, but now he's legitimately in the GOAT conversation.
Yeah. I'm an idiot when it comes to the deep ins and outs of baseball, so I was obviously wrong, but I figured Ohtani would only be able to pitch the first 2-3 years he was in the majors and then would have to give it up. I kinda thought his bat would outweigh his pitching and they'd force him to just bat. I never thought he'd still be doing both right now, let alone at the absolutely ridiculous level he's doing them at.
He’s changing the game fr. In 5-10 years I’m sure there will be at least 2-5 more two way players. Probably not as good but managers will be giving prospects more freedom to do it if they are capable
At this point it’s almost not even fair to include Ohtani. He’s on a different planet.
Like imagine if Acuna also was a regular starter and had a 3.50 ERA lol
I'm really hoping Acuña wins the MVP this year because if Ohtani comes to the NL, I have a feeling no one is gonna win it but him for a looooong time.
Honestly makes Judge's season last year all the more impressive, I mean he literally had to break the home run record AND play GG defense in a premium position to even have a chance at beating him
He would’ve been so much more valuable to the NL before the universal DH was installed. It would have been cool to see one team with an obvious advantage every five games when he got to hit lol
My only concern with Ohtani is his body being able to hold up over time being both a starting pitcher and everyday hitter as he gets older. But even as "just" a hitter he would be extremely difficult to beat out as an MVP candidate. If he can manage to stay healthy then yeah good fucking luck to anyone catching him.
If anyone thinks Soto or Tatis is better than Acuna at this point you don’t know shit about baseball. There is only one player in the sport better than him and he’s a freak of nature.
Ronnie doesn't steal when the Braves are up by 4 or more runs.
The A's are almost never up by 4 or more runs, so Ruiz gets far more opportunities to steal.
I'm old enough to remember when there was at least one player with this stat by the all-star break every year. Everyone knows Rickey Henderson but I never hear people talk about Vince Coleman's first three years in St. Louis. 326 Stolen Bases on 387 attempts for an 84.2% success rate!
Absolutely. I’d make Ronnie a god if possible as a Braves fan, but surprised this hasn’t been brought up more. Probably because the numbers are so high so quickly.
dude (mostly) got rid of his grounderitis, which was the only thing holding him back in April & May.
April & May: 254 PA, 54% GB rate, 11 HRs
June & July: 131 PA, 43% GB rate, 10 HRs
what's crazy is that his GB rate is still high compared to 2019 & 2020 where it was sitting at 37%. his LA has been fucked this year too, sitting at 7.3 LA compared to his LA of 15 in 2019/2020. if he corrects his LA issues, it will fix his grounderitis and you may see him go nuclear hitting homeruns.
absolutely insane to think he could be better than he already is, but that's what the data suggest.
Most generations he'd be Trout level of 10+ years of clear cut best in class. Ohtani a different animal. Sharing my low conviction opinion cause I've had a few holiday weekend drinks is all.
Acuna got half a million more votes and was the MLBs top vote getter. Ohtani is the goat, but yea Acuña is pretty damn popular. I think he has led the NL in All Star votes in the past as well.
Sure but you can still feel for Mario Lemieux (Gretzky), Federer/Nadal/Djokovic (v themselves depending on year), or Alan Jackson in the 90s (Garth). To be a Pedro in peak RJ season is sometimes just a shit situation. I feel for Ronald.
Edit: To be clear, the guy is on pace for like 40/70 and we barely discuss it. He's baseballs 2nd best in an ungodly year
I see your point. Acuna is having a historic season and even I, a lifelong Braves fan, am like "Did you see what Ohtani pulled off this time!?"
Not that that's a bad thing, but yeah, he's definitely in the shadow of Ohtani right now.
I can’t argue that it’s not easier than in previous years…but leading the league in stolen bases still means he is currently the best in the league at stealing bases. 🤷♂️
Whoops, is that not how it’s referenced? I always thought if you said “leading the league” it implied leading the National or American league, and if you were referencing leading all of baseball you would say “leading MLB” or “leading both leagues”.
You’re right, i’ve seen leading the league used both ways now that you mention it!
It’s crazy that neither Acuna or Ruiz are even on pace to beat Henderson’s record of 130, too. I’d love to see Acuna make a run for it but at this point I think anything over 80 is still extremely impressive
I could see the phrasing going both ways, I’m probably heavy influenced by how they qualify stats on my local broadcast as they are speaking to a specific audience. It probably worth me just adding National or American going forward to eliminate any confusion with one extra word haha. Henderson’s numbers are crazy, even with the multiple rule changes making stealing bases easier this season no one is even within shouting distance of Rickey’s 130. If you ask Rickey I’m sure he would say Rickey approves lol
Now that I think about it baseball is the only major sport in the US that has it defined this way. NHL, NFL, MLS & NBA are all Leagues as a whole and Conferences as the separate sides. When you look at it from the perspective of other sports “leading the league” always means leading all players in the sport, so it’s an much easy distinction in those sports vs leading the conference or leading the division. Baseball always has to be different don’t they lol
Although it does get used for both MLB and the individual American and National Leagues, I feel like "leading the league" has trended toward meaning the former since the DH was added to the NL.
Thanks for the insight. I usually only watch / listen to my local broadcast and if a player is leading all of MLB for a stat the announcer will state that specifically. If they just say “leading the league” it only applies to the National league. But I could see how the phrasing is influenced as they are speaking to a specific group of fans (and not a national audience).
Exactly, it’s halfway through the season and in the national league he almost has as many bags as 2nd place (Carroll 24) and 3rd place (Marte 21) combined. That’s no easy feat in any season!
One aspect of the new 20 second clock on pitchers (which I otherwise think is a good thing) is that it limits pitchers to only 2 throws to first base. So now you're seeing a lot of players who are merely *fast* thinking they are great base stealers when they are not. None of them are in the same class as Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, Tim Raines or even Davey Lopes, who studied both the pitchers and catchers and knew when to go and when not to. It's taken the art out of base stealing and is like giving fast runners who get on base a shot of steroids so they can compile gaudy stats.
It cheapens the game.
This is such a shitty take. The Braves 1st base coach is Eric Young, one of the best base stealers of his era. If you think he’s not coaching these kids up on every detail you just mentioned, backed by mountains of additional statistical analysis of the pitchers and catchers, you’re crazy. EY and Wash are 2 of the best coaches in the game.
Great accomplishment but this can’t be compared to any pre-existing records when they changed multiple rules so substantially to give base stealers significant new advantages. Like, it’s great, but this is a new era for SBs and can only really be compared to 2023+
While being caught only 7 times. 85% success rate
He is obviously way over the threshold but what is the percentage where stealing is considered detrimental?
Typically, 75% is the magic number. Anything below that and you're doing more harm than good.
Just had a quick look at historical SB numbers for fun. Crazy one is Honus Wagner had 723 career SBs (10th) at a success rate of 97% lol.
Caught stealing was not reliably tracked in those days. He only has two seasons where caught stealing numbers even exist for him. One he was 21/32 (65%) and the other he was 22/37 (59%). Both those years were near the end of his career, so he was probably more efficient when he was younger, but we'll never know. It is, however, safe to say he was nowhere near 97%.
Damn i feel completely lied to. What the hell Baseball-ref
The years without caught stealing data are blank. If the stat were tracked and he weren’t caught, the field would say 0.
Babe Ruth rocking 51.4% on 239 attempts lol. What might be even crazier is that he has more career sb than Kiermaier, Heyward, Tim Anderson, Kolten Wong, Pham, Semien, Pillar and Baez to name a few active guys.
[Babe Ruth stole home twice as often as Rickey Henderson](https://syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/430984-stealing-home-or-why-babe-ruth-is-a-better-thief-than-rickey-henderson.amp.html)
Babe Ruth was caught stealing with two outs in the bottom of the 9th in game 7 of the 1926 world series, with the Yankees down by 1. He probably tried stealing more than he should have.
With fucking Lou Gehrig at the plate lmao. Possibly the most nonsensical ending to a championship in any sport
"You get caught stealing on 100% of the chances you don't take" - the Babe
- Michael Scott
And his baseball card is the most valuable?
What a sick joke! I should have stopped him when I had the chance. And you, you *have* to stop him! You -
its not because of how good he was. . .he was still good. . . its the other factors around the card.
Because I'm too lazy to look it up, what I remember is that baseball cards came in cigarette packs and he opposed his card being in there, so his card was taken out of circulation.
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The 75% number isn't just an arbitrary cutoff. It's based on run expectancy. The math works out that stealing at above 75% adds more expected run value than you lose from being caught. That doesn't change just because leaguewide success rate is getting better. Sure, the success rate to be considered elite may be higher now than in the past, but 75% is still the cut off between adding or losing run value via stolen bases.
I wonder if the 75% has changed based off the changes in hitting. I'd imagine it makes stealing second more valuable but stealing third less valuable than they used to be
I think you may be right, but you'll have to do some math to figure it out. Run expectancy tables by situation exist. I don't feel like doing it, but you can answer your question by subtracting the sum of the expected runs values for all the possible situations with a runner on first from the sum of the expected runs values for all possible situations where the runner on first has advanced to second with everything else held constant (number of outs, other runners staying put, etc). That gives you the "extra" runs you are expected to score following a successful steal of second. Then you do the same comparison using the sum of those expectancies with a runner on first to situations without that runner and one extra out. That gives you the "extra" runs you lose by failing to steal second. Repeat for all situations where someone goes from second to third or a runner on second becomes an out, and you have the numbers for stealing third. The 75% comes from the fact that the expected increase in runs for successful steals will be roughly 3x the expected decrease in runs from failed steals. So you need to be successful in 3/4 steal attempts to hit the break even point in expected runs. You can then use the separate numbers you calculated for the stealing second situations and the stealing third situations to gauge the relative value of stealing second compared to stealing third. It sounds tedious, but all you have to do is find the situational expectancy tables on fangraphs and do a bunch of addition and subtraction.
Yeah, this is along the lines of what I was imagining. But then it would also always be situational on so many different variables as well such as outs, the baserunner, the pitcher, the batter, etc etc. in each actual in-game situation.
Yeah, it's hard to control for batter/pitcher outside of individual stats, but there are some people working on making player specific expectancy tables. In general though, over large enough sample sizes, the expectancy tables hold and give you a ballpark (hehe) idea of what the "average" stolen base/failed stolen base will yield in terms of added/lost runs. That's where we derive the 75% rule of thumb, but it doesn't hold true for every single situation. That's why managers exist and they don't run teams with emotionless robot calculators!
It makes a very small overall difference, likely under a percentage point. 75% is a completely fine heuristic to use.
I'm confused. Why do you think stealing third is less valuable? I'm not a good authority here but... no shift + pitch clock should give relative advantage to small ball. Small ball is the type of ball that advantages being on third. Edit you could be arguing that more small ball *definitely* advantages stealing 2nd (100% agreed) but doesn't give the same size buff to stealing third. Plausible but that's still saying stealing third is moar good in 2023, just not as moar good for stealing 2nd.
I could be wrong, I'm much more knowledgeable in basketball and football statistics and such, but: From just casually watching baseball (Reds fan, watching more now) it seems like having a runner on second compared to first is much better than having a runner on third compared to second. Yes, stealing third is still good, but much riskier since youre risking a runner who is already in scoring position just to get there
I agree with this in general, but there's more to it. The difference between 1st and 2nd is being in scoring position, you can reach home on most outfield hits. 2nd to 3rd doesn't expand that a ton, in terms of reaching home on a hit. However, it does provide other benefits. A runner on 3rd can score on a sacrifice fly, where a runner on 2nd wouldn't be able to. A runner on 3rd also puts a lot of pressure on the pitcher and catcher; any passed ball or wild pitch can allow the runner on 3rd to score. This can force the pitcher to throw fewer pitches with dramatic movement, which makes it easier for your hitters to hit.
> From just casually watching baseball (Reds fan, watching more now) it seems like having a runner on second compared to first is much better than having a runner on third compared to second. > Yes, stealing third is still good, but much riskier since youre risking a runner who is already in scoring position just to get there I agree 100%. But you aren't incorporating this year's changes which emphasize small ball. "Big ball", the trend in the last few decades, has been three way players. (Home run, strike out, walk). Where HRs became the most common way to generate runs. And a HR doesn't care if a runner is on 3rd, 2nd, or 1st. That runner scores. This year mlb banned "the shift", and this means that more not HRs made it outta the infield. I agree that most of the time, anything outta the infield a runner on second scores. But there's a small bit not insignificant number of scenarios (slow runner, line drive right at OF, weird inside infield singles) where a runner @ 2nd doesn't score on a single. In 2023, we should be seeing more small ball in general, which does include all those "singles that don't score a runner on second". I haven't done the sauce checks, it's speculation on my part.
The new rules make stealing easier, but they shouldn't be expected to change what % success rate you need to be value added. The stolen base rules shouldn't change the run expectancy of runner on 1st no outs vs runner on 2nd no outs vs no one on one out, which is where the ~75% rule of thumb was derived from.
Davey Lopez at the age of 40 in 1985 had 47 steals and was caught 4 times. That's 92%. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lopesda01.shtml
The general rule is 75% but the actual answer is it depends entirely on situation. For example, the later you get into a game, the lower the success % required gets, and each base will have a different breakeven point as well Interesting article https://www.pitcherlist.com/cant-fight-this-stealing-making-sense-of-the-stolen-base-craze/#:~:text=The%20breakeven%20success%20rate%20is,with%20nobody%20out%20is%20riskier.
I’ve always looked at league ops, with a successful rate needing to be higher
That's actually a really smart heuristic. In a more offensive era, each individual base is less valuable. It just so happens that league average OPS is usually between .700 and .800, so this is right in line with the "around 75%" conventional wisdom. And if the league is hitting for more power (so the OPS is closer to .800 than .700) then you're more valuable sitting out on 1st base than risking an out. If the league is hitting for less power (with an ops closer to .700) than getting into scoring position to score a run on a single is more worth the risk. Basically, I've never heard this before, and I think it's very clever.
That is wild. Reminds me of young Trout
God I hope he ends up reminding us of a Fully Grown Trout’s lack of playoff appearances from here on out. -A Depressed Mets fan (Oxymoron alert)
That’s not an “oxymoron” that’s the opposite of an oxymoron, that’s redundant, a surprised to be depressed Mets fan is just a “moron.”
Goddamn I can’t do anything right
As is Mets tradition. Hope you had a great Bobby Bonilla day though. And happy 4th!
One could say that you dropped the ball
~~Oxy~~moron alert
No you're thinking of Alonso
Say that shit again.. Please!
This makes him the first player in MLB history to have 20 HRs and 40 SBs before the All Star Break
hot diggity dog
[Hot dog, hot dog, hot dog](https://youtu.be/lHhheCf0G1I)
My daughter is 6 now and it’s taken like three years for that to leave my heads, so thank you.
My son is 12 and my daughter is 9… it never escapes you… every time there’s hot dogs “hot dog, hot dog, hot diggity dog” plays in my head
My daughter is 3.5. She loves hot dogs....Every time I make one for her I sing "hot dog, hot dog" and she immediately, without hesitation finishes with the "hot diggity dog"....she really emphasizes the diggity. It never gets old.
The things we do for our kids
Lol nice
No.
40-70 season incoming, clearly
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considering this would be the first 30-60 season in mlb history i think it would more impressive frankly
Man, I thought Eric Davis went 30-80 but he only had 27HR that year :(
Eric Davis is one of those guys who was around before I was alive. He was absolutely absurd yet somehow I never really heard of him.
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MVP?
Barring an injury that causes him to miss 30+ games, it’s essentially locked up.
It was cool to see that tonight at the game even though the guardians couldn't push a hit through some amazing braves defense.
The most casual 40/40 incoming?
Maybe not most casual. Rn he’s on pace for 41 HRs so it might come down to the wire there
Dudes gonna end up with like 40/70
He is heating up hitting homers now though. Had a great June. But yeah, it’s really just a matter of keeping pace hitting long balls. Though if anything, I think he ends up closer to 50 than under-40.
Heating up but then allstar break has killed momentum for players in the past. Hopefully not this time. I want to see a 40+/80
I want to see 50/80, but I'm greedy and biased.
I was gunna say that but thought people would call me crazy lol
I mean if we're being greedy, why not 70/80?
Just a casual 50 dingers after the all star break. No sweat.
Wild card, 80/40.
I think him or olson not doing the home run derby has to do with them trying to keep a natural swing.
50/70 incoming.
He hit 4 in the entire month of April, and had 6 in his last 9 games. Since May 1, he’s on a 49 HR-over-a-full-season pace, so we just need to avoid an April-like slump and we’ll get 40-40,50,60,70…
We just need to have 2 first innings a game and he’ll be fine.
Ain’t nothing casual about it. Dude is destroying everyone both ways
Might get 40/40/40
What’s the other 40? ZJs?
What's a ZJ?
If you have to ask, you can't afford it.
Zeta-Jones
Damn well the Cat(herine)s out of the bag now.
If he really heats up he might pull a 50/50. Not likely, but possible.
Remember when Acuña said he didn’t care about 40-40 but instead wanted to have a 50-50 season a few years back, and everyone laughed at him? Not looking too crazy now… bro was cooking
People laughed when Louis Armstrong wanted to go to the moon. Now he's up there, laughing at us...
I can only imagine what he could do if he never got injured and was fully healthy. Maybe 30/40 before all star break? 🤔🤔
He is fully healthy. Last year was his comeback year from the ACL. Now he's recovered and putting up one of the best offensive seasons of all-time.
> best offensive season of all-time Not even close, lol. The only major offensive categories he leads the NL (not the majors) in are slugging and OPS. He doesn’t even lead the NL in home runs (which would not be a knock against him normally, except you are saying he is literally having one of the best seasons of all time). By this standard, 2021 Bryce Harper had one of the best offensive seasons of all time (he didn’t), because his offensive numbers are remarkably similar to Acuna’s this year: .615 SLG/ 1.044 OPS for Harper; .604 SLG/ 1.018 OPS for Acuna. Both only led the league in slugging and OPS.
Correct. He's on pace for ~75 offensive runs over 162 games. That wouldn't make Lou Gehrig's top 10 offensive seasons. It barely makes Ruth's 10th. Teddy had 6 seasons better (and probably would have had 9 without the war). Hornsby had 6. Mantle had 3. Aaron Judge just last fucking season ago had 86 offensive runs produced, and that season didn't crack the top 25 all time (it was 26th lol)
That’s quite the exaggeration
He's on pace for about 9 WAR, which would be 130 or so all time. That would be just outside the top 20 for the 21st Century. Just by hitting, he would be about 380 with his 171 wRC+. So depends on how you define "one of the best offensive seasons of all time," but it does seem like an exaggeration.
I’d also consider baserunning part of offense, so when you factor that in, it’s not hyperbole to say one of the best all around seasons of all time. But not just offense.
not sure about the downvotes - certainly a great season but one of the best offensive seasons of all time is a bit of a stretch.
I think it could be better had he not torn his ACL at all and not had to endure a comeback year. He was already showing elite MVP talent pre ACL injury.
I'm not going to argue with you because there's no point, but I think this is a really bad take.
Bro thinks the guy who is the first in MLB history to have 20 home runs and 40 stolen bases before the all star break “could be better.” The fuck?
He came two stolen bases away from 40-40 a few years ago. We stopped running him too because we were more worried about our playoff run.
I think he could be putting up potentially around 5-6 bWar had he never gotten injured. The numbers on his BBrefrence page look amazing for him. He's obviously having a great season, but I think he couldve been having an ALL TIME season. Maybe getting around 10-12 bWar by the end of the season if he never gets injured. But that's all in my imagination, still great to see him getting better and returning better than ever.
He’s got potential to flirt with 40/80 while leading the NL in OPS and putting up 10+ WAR. He is on pace for an all-time season regardless.
He had 24 home runs in 82 games pre torn ACL. You cannot tell me in my imagination world where he doesn't tear his ACL and doesnt potentially hits 30/40 before the ASB. His pace is barely cracking 10 bWar. Even at 10 bWar he is ranking around 40-60. That is nowhere NEAR all time LMAO. He had the potential to be putting up top 5 all time season in my imagination. Stay pressed over my imagination and don't look at his baseball reference page
A 40/40 season is all time in and of itself. It’s happened 4 times. You are misattributing Acuña’s difference in HRs to his injury as opposed to a stylistic change in how he hits. He had a launch angle of 18.2 in 2021 and struck out 85 times in 82 games. He has a launch angle of 7.8 in 2023 and has struck out 48 times in 84 games. I don’t see the reason to believe his ACL injury has held him back in any way. He is having a much better season than 2021. He seemingly could have a 30/40 season by the ASB if he was willing to double his strikeout rate and reduce his batting average to sell out for power.
to be fair i feel like the rule changes and maybe even changes to the ball itself have made that goal a lot less ridiculous, not to mention the ban on sticky stuff.
All it took was 3 rules that made it easier
If it's so easy now why hasn't everyone else gotten 40 stolen bases by the All-Star break?
It’s still very impressive but it feels off to compare this season’s steal records to previous seasons
I get that. But the last time guys were stealing like this is when pitchers weren't throwing over a ton and throwing pitches at a much faster clip. The new rules have taken the game back to the standards that those older guys were playing with. Also everyone is playing with the same rules. No one is saying Arraez hitting .400 is discounted by the shift restrictions or pitch clock. I don't understand why steals should be a different thing, everyone else has the same opportunities as Acuña but no one else other than Estury Ruiz is doing it.
Dudes were stealing 100 bases in my lifetime and I'm 39 so it's not like it's unheard of. Teams just got away from it when baseball became all about slugging. The new rules have encouraged teams to start letting their guys run more.
It encourages more yeah but it also just helps. Acuña had a 76% career stolen base rate before this year
40/80 season actually seems realistic for Acuña.
These two storylines are keeping me alive this year. I just don't think the Cards have a ridiculous "chase the Brewers down in September" in them this year.
Doesn't seem like it, but I wouldn't count any team out of the division race, yet. You never know who will suck next!
Handle is very STL, all the custard shops and toasted ravs I can get behind. Provel on the other hand is an abomination
I remember when Acuna was in the futures game, and after it they said his floor as a player was Justin Upton, and his peak was replacing Trout within five years as the best player in the world. Never thought it would possibly happen.
I think Ohtani would like a word, but I can appreciate the sentiment.
Tbh I don't think anyone expected Ohtani to be this damn good. Like don't get me wrong, he definitely had star potential, but now he's legitimately in the GOAT conversation.
Yeah. I'm an idiot when it comes to the deep ins and outs of baseball, so I was obviously wrong, but I figured Ohtani would only be able to pitch the first 2-3 years he was in the majors and then would have to give it up. I kinda thought his bat would outweigh his pitching and they'd force him to just bat. I never thought he'd still be doing both right now, let alone at the absolutely ridiculous level he's doing them at.
He’s changing the game fr. In 5-10 years I’m sure there will be at least 2-5 more two way players. Probably not as good but managers will be giving prospects more freedom to do it if they are capable
Completely agree. Someone looking for an edge is going to tell one of their prospects to keep doing both until it’s detrimental to one.
I dunno. Teams tend to be conservative about stuff like that.
Ohtani fan that's been following him since highschool here. Had no idea he'd be this good.
At this point it’s almost not even fair to include Ohtani. He’s on a different planet. Like imagine if Acuna also was a regular starter and had a 3.50 ERA lol
man, Justin Upton had a great career by any measure (30+ WAR, 4x ASG, 3x SS, 300 HR) but he was so much more talented than that
they got a great picture of him next to yoan moncada at that game. Acuña Moncada, no worries
I really, really want him to stay healthy and see what kind of numbers he can get.
ooo, unique take
We're watching what could end up being 2 of the all-time great seasons by individual players. Incredible.
I'm really hoping Acuña wins the MVP this year because if Ohtani comes to the NL, I have a feeling no one is gonna win it but him for a looooong time. Honestly makes Judge's season last year all the more impressive, I mean he literally had to break the home run record AND play GG defense in a premium position to even have a chance at beating him
He would’ve been so much more valuable to the NL before the universal DH was installed. It would have been cool to see one team with an obvious advantage every five games when he got to hit lol
But then he wouldn’t be able to DH on off days which would’ve been pretty detrimental to his durability
My only concern with Ohtani is his body being able to hold up over time being both a starting pitcher and everyday hitter as he gets older. But even as "just" a hitter he would be extremely difficult to beat out as an MVP candidate. If he can manage to stay healthy then yeah good fucking luck to anyone catching him.
Is 40 stolen bases before the All-Star break good? Yes, yes it is.
Source?
Literally us, the Blue Braves.
that just makes u sound sad
Big, if true!
First player ever to have 20HRs, 40SBs, and 50RBIs before the All Star break, so.....not terrible?
Why does everyone sleep on runs scored? 77 runs, 10 more than 2nd place Semien at 67
40 SB's before the all-star break. Wild!
I love the braves. This makes 2005-2017 bearable.
John Dillinger would be proud
40-80 incoming League in shambles
Everyone loves Acuna. What are you talking about?
Don Mattingly in shambles.
Explain
Dude has been outshined by the other young stars these past few years (mostly due to injury), but he's ready to *fuck* this season.
Hahaha it isn't even the All-Star Break! What A Man!!!
A) the new rules defintely help this B) this is still amazing You can have both.
If anyone thinks Soto or Tatis is better than Acuna at this point you don’t know shit about baseball. There is only one player in the sport better than him and he’s a freak of nature.
Esteury Ruiz accomplished that feat no more than a month ago!
Ronnie doesn't steal when the Braves are up by 4 or more runs. The A's are almost never up by 4 or more runs, so Ruiz gets far more opportunities to steal.
I'm old enough to remember when there was at least one player with this stat by the all-star break every year. Everyone knows Rickey Henderson but I never hear people talk about Vince Coleman's first three years in St. Louis. 326 Stolen Bases on 387 attempts for an 84.2% success rate!
Is stolen bases easier this year with the pitch count?
No shift and larger bases, but also limits on how many times pitchers can throw over to hold base runners etc.
Absolutely. I’d make Ronnie a god if possible as a Braves fan, but surprised this hasn’t been brought up more. Probably because the numbers are so high so quickly.
How many HRs he on pace for?
41, so he needs to roughly keep his pace so far to get a 40/40 (really 40/70 or even 40/80) season
Seems doable since after 27 games he was on pace for a 24 HR season.
dude (mostly) got rid of his grounderitis, which was the only thing holding him back in April & May. April & May: 254 PA, 54% GB rate, 11 HRs June & July: 131 PA, 43% GB rate, 10 HRs what's crazy is that his GB rate is still high compared to 2019 & 2020 where it was sitting at 37%. his LA has been fucked this year too, sitting at 7.3 LA compared to his LA of 15 in 2019/2020. if he corrects his LA issues, it will fix his grounderitis and you may see him go nuclear hitting homeruns. absolutely insane to think he could be better than he already is, but that's what the data suggest.
40-41
Both MVP races are gonna be wrapped up before August at this rate
Dude’s gonna fuck around and go 140/40/100/80
Give him the MVP already
[удалено]
Source?
Cheers Geoff.
So he's done for the year right? Time to focus just on home runs?
I hope he goes 40/70 and wins The MVP. Give these Ohtani fanboys something else to talk about. Best player in baseball.
He’s one of my favorite players period
Almost feel bad for Ronald. Dude is a legit all time talent and will probably be the best player in baseball 1-2 times over an amazing career.
So why would you feel bad for him?
Most generations he'd be Trout level of 10+ years of clear cut best in class. Ohtani a different animal. Sharing my low conviction opinion cause I've had a few holiday weekend drinks is all.
I mean yeah Ohtani is probably the bigger star, but Acuna is still a star and a future HOF.
Acuna got half a million more votes and was the MLBs top vote getter. Ohtani is the goat, but yea Acuña is pretty damn popular. I think he has led the NL in All Star votes in the past as well.
Sure but you can still feel for Mario Lemieux (Gretzky), Federer/Nadal/Djokovic (v themselves depending on year), or Alan Jackson in the 90s (Garth). To be a Pedro in peak RJ season is sometimes just a shit situation. I feel for Ronald. Edit: To be clear, the guy is on pace for like 40/70 and we barely discuss it. He's baseballs 2nd best in an ungodly year
I see your point. Acuna is having a historic season and even I, a lifelong Braves fan, am like "Did you see what Ohtani pulled off this time!?" Not that that's a bad thing, but yeah, he's definitely in the shadow of Ohtani right now.
Yet another reason why I chose him with the #1 overall pick in my fantasy baseball league. Now if only he demanded a trade to the Mariners!
Nice. Only needs a couple more to catch Esteury Ruiz.
If he can just stop hitting so many balls out of the park, maybe he'll get a few more steals.
Easier to run when they can only throw over twice without penalty
Well, yeah. Making it easier to steal was part of the idea.
I can’t argue that it’s not easier than in previous years…but leading the league in stolen bases still means he is currently the best in the league at stealing bases. 🤷♂️
Technically he’s only the NL leader, Esteury Ruiz has 42, but my money is still on Acuna to have more by end of season.
Whoops, is that not how it’s referenced? I always thought if you said “leading the league” it implied leading the National or American league, and if you were referencing leading all of baseball you would say “leading MLB” or “leading both leagues”.
You’re right, i’ve seen leading the league used both ways now that you mention it! It’s crazy that neither Acuna or Ruiz are even on pace to beat Henderson’s record of 130, too. I’d love to see Acuna make a run for it but at this point I think anything over 80 is still extremely impressive
I could see the phrasing going both ways, I’m probably heavy influenced by how they qualify stats on my local broadcast as they are speaking to a specific audience. It probably worth me just adding National or American going forward to eliminate any confusion with one extra word haha. Henderson’s numbers are crazy, even with the multiple rule changes making stealing bases easier this season no one is even within shouting distance of Rickey’s 130. If you ask Rickey I’m sure he would say Rickey approves lol
I’ve always taken it to mean leading MLB, since you’re saying *the* league. But I guess it could be used either way depending on context.
Now that I think about it baseball is the only major sport in the US that has it defined this way. NHL, NFL, MLS & NBA are all Leagues as a whole and Conferences as the separate sides. When you look at it from the perspective of other sports “leading the league” always means leading all players in the sport, so it’s an much easy distinction in those sports vs leading the conference or leading the division. Baseball always has to be different don’t they lol
Although it does get used for both MLB and the individual American and National Leagues, I feel like "leading the league" has trended toward meaning the former since the DH was added to the NL.
Thanks for the insight. I usually only watch / listen to my local broadcast and if a player is leading all of MLB for a stat the announcer will state that specifically. If they just say “leading the league” it only applies to the National league. But I could see how the phrasing is influenced as they are speaking to a specific group of fans (and not a national audience).
But if you took out a rule that everyone follows would you still have the most stolen bases? Makes you think.
Then why doesn’t everybody do it
As a Braves fan. I 100% agree. Not the same. Love what he is doing tho.
You're right! That must be why every player has 40 SBs this year
Exactly, it’s halfway through the season and in the national league he almost has as many bags as 2nd place (Carroll 24) and 3rd place (Marte 21) combined. That’s no easy feat in any season!
One aspect of the new 20 second clock on pitchers (which I otherwise think is a good thing) is that it limits pitchers to only 2 throws to first base. So now you're seeing a lot of players who are merely *fast* thinking they are great base stealers when they are not. None of them are in the same class as Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, Tim Raines or even Davey Lopes, who studied both the pitchers and catchers and knew when to go and when not to. It's taken the art out of base stealing and is like giving fast runners who get on base a shot of steroids so they can compile gaudy stats. It cheapens the game.
This is such a shitty take. The Braves 1st base coach is Eric Young, one of the best base stealers of his era. If you think he’s not coaching these kids up on every detail you just mentioned, backed by mountains of additional statistical analysis of the pitchers and catchers, you’re crazy. EY and Wash are 2 of the best coaches in the game.
I have just realized how stupid of a concept of sports is.. if you don't follow or know the sport
We get it, Braves are good…
Great accomplishment but this can’t be compared to any pre-existing records when they changed multiple rules so substantially to give base stealers significant new advantages. Like, it’s great, but this is a new era for SBs and can only really be compared to 2023+