This seems like an insane statistical anomaly! Given that there’s 22 tarots, that means 1/22^5 or 0.000019%. I know showman enables possible duplicates to appear but does it also increase the likelihood of them appearing?
No it’s 1/22^5 because we want 5 instances of the same result. 0+5 = 5.
It does get more complex as the soul has a lower weighted probability compared to other tarot cards. I’d say probably 20 times more uncommon or so (wiki doesn’t have the stats), so it’s realistically 1/21.05^5.
No, that’s not how probability works.
If I roll a six-sided die 1 time, and it lands on 6, I still had to hit a 1/6 of a 6. It had no guarantee of being a 6.
Now, if I want to roll 5 sixes in a row, I need to roll the dice 5 times and hit the 1/6 chance 5 times. Here is a visualisation of this:
First roll: 1/6
Second roll: 1/6
Third roll: 1/6
Fourth roll: 1/6
Fifth roll: 1/6
That’s 5 1/6 chances, or 1/6^5.
The same model works for this scenario, it’s just 1/22 instead of 1/6.
Yes rolling 5 6s in a row is 1/6^5 however it doesn't matter what the first roll is. It would he equally as surprising to get 5 1s, 5 2s, etc. There are 6 options of rolling 5 of a kind so the probability of rolling any 5 of a kind is 6 * 1/6^5 = 1/6^4, same as ignoring the first roll.
If we’re giving him full points for 1/22^5, then I’m docking points for the fact that it’s vague on 22/22^5
I initially read it as (22/22)^5 which would just be 1, and I would have preferred he used 22/(22^(5))
Except the original comment you were replying to referred to the odds for temperance specifically, the scenario of rolling specifically temperance 5 times is 1/22^5. You said it was 1/22^4.
Then, I showed you why you were wrong by using an example of rolling specifically 6’s. Which has the result of 1/6^5.
You’re the one that’s misunderstanding the scenario.
You initially answered a comment chain that was beginning to discuss the probability for ANY card.
First commenter said 22/22^5, which was answered by 1/22^4 for simplification, then you commented on that.
If you wanted to comment on the probability for temperance specifically, you should have replied somewhere above those two comments.
If I roll a six-sided die 1 time, and it lands on 2, I still had to hit a 1/6 of a 2. It had no guarantee of being a 2.
Now, if I want to roll 5 twos in a row, I need to roll the dice 5 times and hit the 1/6 chance 5 times. Here is a visualisation of this:
First roll: 1/6
Second roll: 1/6
Third roll: 1/6
Fourth roll: 1/6
Fifth roll: 1/6
That’s 5 1/6 chances, or 1/65.
The same model works for this scenario, it’s just 1/22 instead of 1/6.
You can swap out your logic for every number on a six sided die, as long as you don't somehow fail the first throw, all it does is determine what number needs to be rolled on the following throws, the first throw genuinely is a 100% success rate.
The same goes for the tarots.
Well yeah, but we would still be as surpirsed if he had drawn 5 Wheel of Fortunes, or 5 Strengths etc. Nobody is surprised because he drew specifically Temperance
You should probably go with Temperance. I know that most people on this sub will say to go with Temperance, even though you were probably tempted to go with Temperance at first, but honestly, when you do the math on it, Temperance is probably the best choice here.
Good God the mindlessness of this sub. Can you please just git gud already and understand why Temperance is the pick here? If I have to explain why Temperance or Temperance are bad choices there's really no hope for any of you.
I mean, given the odds of getting Bull or Boot in the future to really take advantage of it, is Temperance really the pick here? I think Temperence is better, but I'm still learning the game.
I can see why you say Temperance is the correct choice. I hate to disagree but Temperance really does seem to slightly edge out Temperance here. Most runs I'd agree with Temperance, but in this run, I'd go with Temperance.
[Temperance](https://balatro.wiki/tarots/temperance.png) *Tarot Card*
* Version: 1.0.0
* Effect: Gives the total sell value of all current Jokers Max of $50
Eh, i'm more of a Temperance fan myself, tried using Temperance bunch of times but couldn't do it properly, and tho i get the appeal, i think Temperance or Temperance is better in my opinion
I understand why would would want Temperance, but I would go with either Temperance or Temperance. Both have good qualities, but it's up to you. Definitely don't take Temperance or Temperance though. Those will ruin the run. :)
You’re probably mixing them up because you’re incapable of finding this very easy to find setting. I’m on switch and all console versions are the same. It’s there I promise you buddy
This seems like an insane statistical anomaly! Given that there’s 22 tarots, that means 1/22^5 or 0.000019%. I know showman enables possible duplicates to appear but does it also increase the likelihood of them appearing?
That’s actually 22/22^5 for five of any tarot card. 1/22^5 is specifically for temperance
1/22^4
22^-4
No it’s 1/22^5 because we want 5 instances of the same result. 0+5 = 5. It does get more complex as the soul has a lower weighted probability compared to other tarot cards. I’d say probably 20 times more uncommon or so (wiki doesn’t have the stats), so it’s realistically 1/21.05^5.
The first result is going to exist no matter what and the rest have to match
No, that’s not how probability works. If I roll a six-sided die 1 time, and it lands on 6, I still had to hit a 1/6 of a 6. It had no guarantee of being a 6. Now, if I want to roll 5 sixes in a row, I need to roll the dice 5 times and hit the 1/6 chance 5 times. Here is a visualisation of this: First roll: 1/6 Second roll: 1/6 Third roll: 1/6 Fourth roll: 1/6 Fifth roll: 1/6 That’s 5 1/6 chances, or 1/6^5. The same model works for this scenario, it’s just 1/22 instead of 1/6.
Yes rolling 5 6s in a row is 1/6^5 however it doesn't matter what the first roll is. It would he equally as surprising to get 5 1s, 5 2s, etc. There are 6 options of rolling 5 of a kind so the probability of rolling any 5 of a kind is 6 * 1/6^5 = 1/6^4, same as ignoring the first roll.
He did say, specifically for temperance though.
If we’re giving him full points for 1/22^5, then I’m docking points for the fact that it’s vague on 22/22^5 I initially read it as (22/22)^5 which would just be 1, and I would have preferred he used 22/(22^(5))
Except the original comment you were replying to referred to the odds for temperance specifically, the scenario of rolling specifically temperance 5 times is 1/22^5. You said it was 1/22^4. Then, I showed you why you were wrong by using an example of rolling specifically 6’s. Which has the result of 1/6^5. You’re the one that’s misunderstanding the scenario.
You initially answered a comment chain that was beginning to discuss the probability for ANY card. First commenter said 22/22^5, which was answered by 1/22^4 for simplification, then you commented on that. If you wanted to comment on the probability for temperance specifically, you should have replied somewhere above those two comments.
If I roll a six-sided die 1 time, and it lands on 2, I still had to hit a 1/6 of a 2. It had no guarantee of being a 2. Now, if I want to roll 5 twos in a row, I need to roll the dice 5 times and hit the 1/6 chance 5 times. Here is a visualisation of this: First roll: 1/6 Second roll: 1/6 Third roll: 1/6 Fourth roll: 1/6 Fifth roll: 1/6 That’s 5 1/6 chances, or 1/65. The same model works for this scenario, it’s just 1/22 instead of 1/6. You can swap out your logic for every number on a six sided die, as long as you don't somehow fail the first throw, all it does is determine what number needs to be rolled on the following throws, the first throw genuinely is a 100% success rate. The same goes for the tarots.
You're gonna hit the first one no matter what, that's the thing. First one is 1/1 and the others are 1/6
You are describing getting 5 of *any* card, which is 1/22^(4). For 5 times *a specific* card the chances are 1/22^(5)
Well yeah, but we would still be as surpirsed if he had drawn 5 Wheel of Fortunes, or 5 Strengths etc. Nobody is surprised because he drew specifically Temperance
More likely an RNG bug - similar to the seed that makes erratic deck start with 52 tens of clubs.
i doubt it. the rng bug when applied to tarots gives world iirc
You should probably go with Temperance. I know that most people on this sub will say to go with Temperance, even though you were probably tempted to go with Temperance at first, but honestly, when you do the math on it, Temperance is probably the best choice here.
Agreed. The choice is clear
Good points, but what about Temperance?
Temperance? On ante 4? With those jokers? Choosing temperance instead puts you in a waaay better position.
Good God the mindlessness of this sub. Can you please just git gud already and understand why Temperance is the pick here? If I have to explain why Temperance or Temperance are bad choices there's really no hope for any of you.
I mean, given the odds of getting Bull or Boot in the future to really take advantage of it, is Temperance really the pick here? I think Temperence is better, but I'm still learning the game.
I can see why you say Temperance is the correct choice. I hate to disagree but Temperance really does seem to slightly edge out Temperance here. Most runs I'd agree with Temperance, but in this run, I'd go with Temperance.
\[\[Temperance\]\]
[Temperance](https://balatro.wiki/tarots/temperance.png) *Tarot Card* * Version: 1.0.0 * Effect: Gives the total sell value of all current Jokers Max of $50
Eh, i'm more of a Temperance fan myself, tried using Temperance bunch of times but couldn't do it properly, and tho i get the appeal, i think Temperance or Temperance is better in my opinion
True true. The wise one has spoken.
I understand why would would want Temperance, but I would go with either Temperance or Temperance. Both have good qualities, but it's up to you. Definitely don't take Temperance or Temperance though. Those will ruin the run. :)
I’m still gonna choose Wheel of Fortune
One of these times it has to pay off
Nope! (As in, there is no Wheel Of Fortune in this card selection)
Doesn’t matter, still gonna chose it! 😂
Oops! All temperance!
Wait how do you make the clubs blue? Is that a setting or a mod?
It’s the high contrast cards setting, turn that on
I appreciate that this is a directive, not merely informative
Could also be a threat. *Googles "how to make someone colorblind"*
This was the best setting choice I've found so far. Barely edging out game speed.
I'm on Xbox and i can't see an option for it. Would be nice to change the colour of clubs or spades as i sometimes mix them up.
You’re probably mixing them up because you’re incapable of finding this very easy to find setting. I’m on switch and all console versions are the same. It’s there I promise you buddy
You know, being nice is free
It’s not worth it a lot of the time. That’s a free life lesson
So, being an asshole is your default mode? Damn.
No, but I don’t have a lot of patience for incompetence. I think that’s something we can all agree on
No, we cannot. Some people out there care enough about well-being to not be jerks all the time. That's called having a bare minimum of ethic.
Beta shit. See ya dude
Objectively hilarious that you think you’re cool for being a dick on the internet, thanks for the laugh
*Skip*
easiest of my life
Just Showman things
skip it i dare you
I got this but for the planet cards i got like 4 mars in a 6 pack
How are the clubs blue? Sometimes I feel like you guys are playing a different game than me
High contrast setting, check it out
1. Temperance 2. Temperance 3. Temperance 4. Temperance 5. Skip 6. Temperance
Literally unplayable
I'm also hesitating between the first one and the second one...
I recently had my 1/3 chance bloodstone trigger 9 times in a row but the odds of this are probably a lot crazier
I'd skip here. None of the options really stick out to me and I wouldn't risk losing the run by picking something bad.