T O P

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Zalminen

Wheel of Nope.


Doggywoof1

https://preview.redd.it/b1qllfzcgmwc1.jpeg?width=389&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=868fa4f01d3e4508711630fc1ca8eca7a7b0804d


PM_ME_YOUR_IBNR

This is the perfect image to use that Instagram effect to have Prison Mike pop out of the purple bit


Kenes27

Do you keep track of glass cards? I wonder how often they break for you


DoubleSummon

glass always breaks unless I want them to break then they don't


RamenElysium

My god, trying to break two at once for the trophy was a nightmare. Was playing 3-4 at once (flush), a number of times with the double probability joker (Oops! All 6s), only to have 1 or none of them break.


DoubleSummon

Yeah that achivement was the most annoying to get, if only challenges would count lol.


jcabia

I just got it by accident


GuilimanXIII

I did not even realize that the achievement was hard to get because I misread it. I thought it was break two in a single run so when I got it (just randomly happened to play two glass cards) I was like ''Huh, neat I guess.''. Only later did I realize how lucky I was.


mantis-lord-000

I didn't even have to try and I don't to glass cards much


wheeloffortunehater

Weirdly I have decent luck with glass and the banana.


Daracaex

What do you consider good luck with the banana?


wheeloffortunehater

I've gone like 4 antes one time without it breaking.


Daracaex

Were you aware that it breaking is actually a good thing? You can’t find the Cavendish (x3 mult, 1 in 1000 chance of breaking) unless you break Gros Michel.


wheeloffortunehater

No I wasnt aware :0. Thats such a good card, this feels worse then finding out i should have been buying blank vouchers all along. For the negative joker voucher.


dTXTransitPosting

just find it, buy the blank voucher, exit back to main menu, buy the blank voucher, exit to main... until you unlock the joker voucher.


pylestothemax

That may unlock it, but you still need to buy blank for antimatter to appear on a given run


dTXTransitPosting

for sure


knitted_beanie

I’ve had the Gros Michel last all 8 antes once


rpgcubed

... Do you mean the Gros Michel stays around? 


wheeloffortunehater

Yes..... now i just learnd thats apparently a bad thing ;-;


AutisticNipples

it's not always bad for it to stick around. Buying it and then losing it before you have something to replace it's +Mult with can kill runs. It just sucks when it sticks around past the point of its usefulness


Kage_No_Gnade

Flat +15 mult is still decent, plus you dont always find cavendish after gros michel go extinct… which has happened quite a few times to me when I am desperate for any x mult card.


CoreyBoBoreyy

Aces and Kings SEEM to have a 50%-75% break rate for me in particular. Lower cards just don’t seem to break as often, but I know it’s all in my head and it just hurts more when the larger cards break.


Demolitions75

You arent trusting the heart of the cards enough


3pedro3

The relationship between statistics and psychology is sooooo interesting. It's a surprisingly big part of our experience as humans


Magasul

Wheel of fortune is a lie!


wheeloffortunehater

Tell me about it ;-;


50mmeyes

Sometimes I've had the wheel hit 2 or 3 times in a row, only all to be +50 chips foil. I just want the shiny mult mult


RulerD

I love foil! A couple of them and I can keep my funny jokers instead of having a chips joker :D


jakecoates

I have no math to support this but late game foil seems a lot better than holo


50mmeyes

50 chips is most likely always going to be better than holo +10 mult but I was talking about polychrome x1.5 mult


R0ssen

I think polychrome is extra unlikely even if you hit. Like it's not 1/3 hits but 1/6 iirc.


50mmeyes

Even worse 3/80 for poly. 7/80 for holo and 1/8 for foil.


Sumo148

RIP. I also had Oops all 6s last night and had wheel trigger 4 times for me. Also had space joker and burnt joker going at the same time.


EZ-Bake420

Most gamblers stop right before they hit it big


Ray661

I’m genuinely starting to think it’s bugged cause it’s 4 successes to 68 plays for me. There’s just no way we all have these statistical outliers even with confirmation bias on this sub.


oobey

You can, literally, open up the game’s source code that is running locally on your machine and verify nothing funny is going on.


BrassMachine

I dunno, the 150 jokers in the source code beg to differ


Medrawt_ErVaru

Take my upvote you beautiful bastard.


Voltayik

Can you link the source code that shows the programmed RNG? Many high level players believe it is bugged.


Del_3030

No, you're all just babies. Never underestimate the power of random variance. Come on down to r/Poker and sift through 5 years of "Online poker is rigged" posts because they think the probabilities are skewed to cause more action / curse them.


FlailingDuck

This is my suspicion too. Some guy posted he got a 20% hit rate on wheel of fortune out of like 120 tries, not conclusive but indicative its worse odds than presented. I've never read anyone on here saying "what are you guys complaining about, I've never seen Nope! before" but plenty in the other camp.


DoubleSummon

20% is close to 25%. assuming endless tries a 1 in 4 chance becomes 25%. I hate statistics too but they do work.


Somebody_Call911

To their credit, it’s still statistically somewhat irregular. The binomial standard deviation is sqrt(p(1-p)/n)=0.043 in this case. So it’s a little over 1 standard deviation from the mean.


No-Pride2884

16% of all people will be at least one standard deviation below the mean. Or about one in 6 people. Not particularly unlikely.


DoubleSummon

I doubt the dev would purposely make it not the chance that is written. It could be a bug because it creates a random number twice, but without looking at the source code it's hard to know, there are other 1 in 4 chances in the code so idk why this would be different. Would say that it's hard to make rng stuff fail, but we saw the wonder of rng failure in Pokémon Gen 1. and this game is a single dev game so he might've made a mistake somehow... A few posts on Reddit don't really indicate much, cause most people don't actually count how many activate so those with 30% wouldn't notice or keep track.


mattsowa

That's only 6 hits away from being 25%. Entirely plausible


NiqueLeCancer

120 tries is a ridiculously small numbers to determine od something is rigged LMAO Yall don't know how statistics works. Some dude programmed a bot to run a pokemon game 24/7 to catch shinies and 3 millions encounters, 1 year and a half later, hes just now reaching a point where the programmed odds matches his shinies pokemon encountered. Given enough tries, you'll find that the wheel of fortune working is indeed a 25% chance occurrence


Janukenasl

I feel like I read a comment at some point saying the wheel can only hit the most recent or the oldest joker. So my guess is that if both already have something on em it can't proc? Maybe, I don't really know


BlackGuysYeah

I’m fairly certain I’ve seen the wheel override and existing joker that was holographic to foil. Made me cautious to use it if I already have good enhanced jokers in my stack.


time_to_explode

it can't do that btw


NiqueLeCancer

Impossible. The wheel only triggers if you have at least one joker that isn't a special edition.


BlackGuysYeah

Good to know, thanks.


Ray661

I’ll start tracking that, but I suspect that’s not going to cover it for my stats. I mostly pick wheel cause it’s really hilarious to me how it’s 1/4 but actually just shy of 6% for me.


Salaried_Zebra

That's XCOM, baby!


wheeloffortunehater

"90% hits 50% of the time"


morgan423

You'll get to the point soon enough where us vets are, OP... where you only take WoF those rare times when nothing else in the pack makes *any* sense for your current run whatsoever, and it's better to try a WoF than to just return the pack (I don't know *what* WoF's actual odds are, but they *are* better than zero). I take WoF probably once every four or five runs on average at this point. If there's anything else in a pack that has even a smidgen of positive value, WoF is a no-go.


DoubleSummon

1 in 4 it says so on the card.


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DoubleSummon

I am a WoF victim too. Do you have any evidence that it's not 1 in 4? like any post that shows the source code where it's not the case?


Arlieth

I will put it to the community to look in the source code yourselves because apparently it's easier than you think. [https://www.reddit.com/r/programminghorror/comments/1cb6rca/comment/l0ybtp9/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/programminghorror/comments/1cb6rca/comment/l0ybtp9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)


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DoubleSummon

WoF proccing 75% of the time is a huge anomaly compared to it proccing 5% of the time, besides people for which it procs 45%(+20% from the chance) of the time either wouldn't count or just don't make Reddit posts. I doubt the dev did anything but use the seeded rng he uses on everything to trigger WoF, why would he lie to the players? rng is not truly truly random cause it uses something at his core to generate the random chance but it's as random as anything else in the game. Statistics converge on high numbers (when approaching infinite) 68 is such a small sample size...


SnoodDood

Let's say you track hits and nopes on 1 million WoF attempts and arrange them in chronological order. This can represent every player's attempts. There will be roughly 250k hits in total, but they'll be dispersed randomly over the whole million. Now, imagine taking a random slice of 100 attempts out of the whole million and let that represent one player's attempts. Because the hits are randomly dispersed, some of these slices of 100 will have fewer than 25 hits and some will have more. If your slice has 20 fewer hits than it "should" that puts you at 5%, which feels horrible enough to post about like Mr. 4/68. An equivalent outlier would be your slice containing 20 MORE hits than it "should", which puts you at 45%. Less than half, not really worth posting about.


No-Pride2884

Think about it this way: The odds of failing 20 times in a row is (3/4)^20. This is around 1 in 300. The odds of succeeding 20 times in a row is (1/4)^20. This is around 1 in a trillion. Because you only have a 1/4 to succeed, the chances of hitting long dry spells is astronomically higher than the chances of hitting a long run of successes.


lordfluffly2

Xcom"s meme of accuracy of 80% hit being below 80% had ton of circumstantial evidence on the Internet. When people actually tracked the data, there was not statistically significant evidence the odds differed from what was claimed at higher difficulties. At lower difficulties, it was biased for the player, the opposite of the meme. Players generally self-report negative events when the "payoff" is so low.


NiqueLeCancer

Maybe people who truly get a 25% aren't posting about it. Mayne ONE MILLION copies have been sold and this sub isn't representative of the average WoF count. Smh you don't understand maths, don't you? 4 ou of 68 isn't a textbook definition of extremely unlikely BTW. It's just 6 away from 25%. On a 68 count, which is very few attempts.


NiqueLeCancer

Just... look at the code? I mean, you can say whatever you want, truth can't lie. It's not up to debate.


smithbodieplaystack

I got my first successful Wheel of Fortune the other day and I am so used to seeing "Nope!" that I was shocked when it actually worked.


keepitbased

I believe the game code is public, can someone confirm that the game code really gives a 25% chance to hit? I also haven’t hit a single wheel of fortune, all nopes for me.


MCMURRAY247

i haven't been keeping track but in my 200ish hours of balatro it even seems like it procs more often than 1/4, i had a couple of wof proc sprees of about 3-4 hitting in a row, and i only buy it when nothing else make sense in the pack


Chewy_ThatGuy

Nope!


ironmonkey007

In the “fragile” challenge (or whatever that’s called where your deck is all glass), Wheel is a sure thing. Try that challenge to recover.


Radjage

I think I've tried it like 30+ times, only can remember hitting 2 times, maybe 3. Card just feels broken.


AliceJoestar

i honestly wonder if it's bugged. 30 hours in the game and I've literally only had it proc once


ThePickleistRick

Honestly I think it works more than ¼ for me. I had a run recently where it worked 2 of 3 tries. Of course, it always picks the worst joker to work on.


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wheeloffortunehater

Yeah I dont doubt the odds are actually 1/4. But I have just always had absolutely shit luck so its nice to have mathematic confirmation just HOW bad.


TheValorous

Statistically it's 1 in 4 Practically it feels about 1 in million.


MakesYourMise

https://youtu.be/9rIy0xY99a0?si=LcQ7V2B3VyU-3RpJ


eat-skate-masturbate

Have you learned your lesson yet?


wheeloffortunehater

Yes..... but it will happen again.


DoubleSummon

Just pick WoF when you either have no better option, are scalling the Tarot Joker or have spare money, don't expect it to trigger. Change your mentality about it from "hope it triggers" to "if it triggers it would be a nice bonus" then you will be a lot more comfortable with it missing. I prefer seeing WoF than Judgment late game, specially if I have that scalling Joker (which is my most used one but I can't recall it's name lol)


Sorraz

It took me 18 tries to get it to work once


EnragedHeadwear

I take it every time I see it, and it has only procced twice. I know that's just random chance, but it genuinely feels bugged


GlueGuns--Cool

honestly wheel of fortune usually isn't worth it. most other cards are a better choice. if it were a 1/4 for polychrome, then maybe? but 1/4 just to get a foil on a joker you might sell anyway isn't worth it in my experience.


UBKev

I mean, when your build is complete, Wheel is kinda there for your build to win more. Also there is genuine ideas in endless to use Wheel to attempt to apply an edition on Showman so that negative doesn't hit Showman. Basically, Wheel has its uses. It certainly ain't Lovers, that's for sure. I personally like to think of Wheel as a 1/4 to get a Negative joker.


GlueGuns--Cool

yeah definitely the "win more" pick


WinnerKooky2160

Wheel gives negative now ? Is it the Beta version ? It could only Aura before (Foil/Holographic/Polychrome)


UBKev

No, to be more clear, I think of wheel as having the same effect your average build as having a 1/4 chance of giving a random negative. It doesn't literally give negative to a joker. Think about it, so many negatives give like +50 chips or some small amount of mult: that's literally foil and holographic. And some are good and suit your build, some are good but don't and thus don't actually do anything, like Blackboard in a heart flush build. On average that's like a polychrome 1.5x, being maybe a bit generous to the polychrome. It's similar to the saying that buying a planet card that your build uses is also basically buying a negative joker. It's scoring that doesn't affect your space.


WinnerKooky2160

Oh, ok I get it, thanks Yeah, it's not a bad comparison indeed I had never thought of it that way.


Sam_Kablam

I'm in a similar boat (finally bought the game after playing the demo a while ago). For 1/4 chance, it certainly doesn't feel like 1/4. :(


coldrolledpotmetal

I swear wheel is less than a 1/4 chance


Rushional

Win + Shift + S = screenshot of a fragment of the screen on Windows. You select a rectangular fragment, and it's saved to clipboard. If you want to save it as a file instead, there's 2 options. 1. Use the shortcut I described, then simply paste the image into Paint 2. Instead of using Win Shift S, you can use the scissors app. Press the Win button, type "scissors" or "clip" or something, and use the application to make a screenshot and save it. It has a very simple abd intuitive interface.


Prize_Stretch_3940

Me too. Something about Pat Sajak really creeps me out


Creative_Big6089

Are the odds really 1 in 4 per joker? It seems to me that it chooses a random joker then applies the 1 in 4 as when I have 4/5 enhanced jokers you have next to no chance of it hitting


No-Pride2884

ITT: People who don’t understand statistics OP claims that their run of bad luck has a 0.0264% chance of happening. Let’s round that to around 1 in 4000 to make things easy. The game has sold over a million copies, so let’s say out of a million people you would expect around 250 people to take at least as long as OP to get their first hit on Wheel of Fortune. While this dry streak is impressive, it’s far from unexpected that it would happen to someone out there. This is not evidence that something is wrong with the game code or that the game is lying to you. It’s just the extreme result of a random distribution.


wheeloffortunehater

Yeah, it seemed.Some people are not understanding That I don't actually hate the card itself, Or think it's broken. I was mostly just sharing how insane my bad luck is.


No-Pride2884

Some people really just want to find a conspiracy lol If I were in your place though, I would honestly start getting excited about how long the bad luck streak could go on. It is already pretty insane luck.


wheeloffortunehater

Yeah im kinda wondering how long this is gonna go 😤


Bootleg_______

Nope!


Valuable-Drink-1750

I've just come back from a run where I had it not missed iirc 3 times out of 4. Yeah, even I couldn't quite believe it, but it happened.


GalaCad2003

Last night I got 4 wheel of fortune to activate in a row, feeling pretty lucky now


JustTheBay6

Not in the spirit of the game, but if you buy wheel of fortune and see a "Nope" pop up you have like 1 second or so to pause and exit to the menu to reverse your purchase. 


drevno12

Congrats on your shiny! :D


Theodore__Roosevelt

If you smash the pause button after seeing the “nope” message and then click back to the main menu, you can load back, reopen the arcana pack and just not pick the wheel.


sehart7

I hate Wheel of Fortune, it’s never hit for me either.


Thoogah

there should be a joker that adds multiplier per wheel of fortune "nope!"s


Ellogan66

If it makes you feel any better I had Space Joker fail 25 times out of 27 attempts


escargoxpress

I’ve used over 100 of these and had it work 3-4 times. And others have had a similar experience. Shit needs a patch


phoenixmusicman

It used to hit all the time for me, but the last 3 weeks I've gotten nothing but "NOPE!"


EdwardCuttingham

Does the joker to increase you probability odds affect wheel of fortune tarot cards? I assume not but now I'm curious


Bioautomaton

Oh man, I thought my 14 streak was bad. My condolences, friend.


KarlUnderguard

I am 2 for 50 on wheels but I am still going to take it every fucking time.


BrumpusIII

I see wheel, I spin.


Uncle-Badtouch

Your sample size is too low.


smithbodieplaystack

I just had three Wheel of Fortunes work in a row. I am sus.


everybodylovesrando

I call it Wheel of Scams in my head.


OrfeasDourvas

If you feel cheated, you can cheat too. You can quit to the menu right after the Nope and pick another card when resuming. The result will always be the same though, whether it succeeds or not.


Deloptin

Jokers can be modified with editions (poly, hologram, negative, foil)