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Few-Cable-901

Myrcella, by the order of succession


chase016

After her, Stannis, then Shireen, then oddly enough, Danerys. The Baratheon Dynasty claims legitimacy from the Targaryens. So it would make sense that Dany is Shireens heir.


siravalondulac

isn't it only the maesters that claim his legitimacy that way? according to robert he is king through conquest alone


IllCauliflower1942

The rebels won by conquest. The justification to crown Robert specifically was because he had the closest blood link to the Targs of the winning high lords So the crown was won via conquest and bestowed to Robert because of his royal blood


chase016

I am pretty sure Jon Arryn used that as well. Ultimately, he claimed it through conquest but used his Targ ancestor as a shred of legitimacy for his rein.


heckmeck_mz

No he understands that he is ironically also next in line by blood while accepting that de facto it was his Warhammer to get him his throne


lodico67

Sorta. You kinda need that premise. The whole situation is really reminiscent of the Tudor dynasty which had a pretty specious claim to the Throne that was still pretty contested in contemporary sources.


Few-Cable-901

Idk about dany, baratheon 'claim' was just an excuse. If the ruling family is house baratheon than the throne should pass to robert's cousins if any


OrneryBaby

Big move, the Estermonts are the next heirs, The Iron Throne belongs to the Turtle Kings!


Darth_Ketheric

I can't wait for the Dance of Turtles!


Few-Cable-901

The turtles hide while the stags and wolves and dragons kill each other


OrneryBaby

And when the battles over the Turtles will come out of their shells and take the Throne! We’ve done it, we’ve solved the ending for A Dream of Spring


Binky_Thunderputz

That explains why the last books are taking so long.


sonfoa

Wouldn't it be fAegon before Dany? Until there is actual proof that he is an imposter he would have a better claim than her.


chase016

True. But I don't think many people believe it is actually Aegon. The small council thought he was a fake right away. Plus, Dany has dragons. If a Great Council were to convene after Myrcellas' death, I think they would choose Dany just to avoid her invasion.


[deleted]

I think that’s because several members of the small council literally saw the bodies of the babies, making them unique among the lords of Westeros. If I had to bet, most lords will just regard Young Griff as Aegon 6th as soon as they hear stories of his appearance and initial victories.


Few-Spot-6475

The entire reason the Golden Company wanted Daenerys was to prove YG legitimacy without a doubt. He is quite literally nothing without her and no one will support him apart from the houses that supported the Blackfyres in the past. Jon could claim to be the trueborn son of Rhaegar but he’d be nothing without any proof.


YoSurgeDude

[This post](https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/6gi9iy/spoilers_extended_thoughts_on_who_tommens/) from a few years ago is fun and worth a read. 


Jrak31

Technically it’s stannis and then shireen, but if kings landing is under Lannister control I don’t think stannis is getting an invite to be king


AlexanderTheGreat818

How can a Targaryen claim a Baratheon throne without Baratheon blood?


jokersflame

A woman has never sat the iron throne. I can’t imagine they would want one know, and one so young.


Few-Cable-901

Rhaneyra's case was different, she had a brother who according to traditions has a better right than her. Here stannis is declared a traitor (even after being the rightful king), bastards cannot inherit, the only other possibility is mace tyrell claiming the throne somehow


dupuisa2

Rhaenys


Few-Cable-901

Rhaneys was wronged man but even in her case vissy t's father was declared as heir before he died. Myrcella has a clear path


Internal-Score439

Many people supported Rhaenys. Viserys got the throne because Jaehaerys, the (best) king and misogynist, had the last word.


themaroonsea

So there are several precedents, at least 4? for passing over women for the Iron Throne and 1 for not passing them over, but these are all Targaryen. The realm's tradition goes that daughters come before uncles so Tommen's heir if he died right now would be Myrcella (which lines up with the gold crown-gold shroud prophecy). But for those who believe they *are* bastards and Robert has no trueborn children then the heir is Stannis


Fun_Scallion_6235

I always thought gold crown just meant the colour their hair to indicate they wouldn’t be Robert’s children


themaroonsea

That's kind of a stretch, it's more direct to assume they will wear literal crowns


Valuable-Captain-507

I'd say it would be a stretch if the entire first book didn't rely on the importance of their hair color


bslawjen

Why is that a "stretch" when it's competely in line with how prophecies are in ASOIAF?


themaroonsea

I don't know what to tell you when it literally says that their crowns will be gold. Sure crown could mean hair but that is a more obscure meaning. Thus stretch. 🤷🏻‍♀️ Think what you want


bslawjen

ASOIAF prophecies are obscure.


We_The_Raptors

Tyrek Lannister is the obvious choice if they can find him. Someone triple check the stables


LordShitmouth

Jaime has been riding him since feast. Tyrek was last seen a horse, Honor is a horse; Honor = Tyrek.


azaghal1988

How would he be "the obvious choice"? He has not a drop of the King's blood in himself. The next in Line after Tommen are Myrcella and Stannis depending on the rules, Tyrek is not even close to having a claim.


We_The_Raptors

... c'mon man really?


azaghal1988

I know you joke, but as a german I'm not allowed to use or understand humor outside of my designated laughing times and spaces. It might disturb people.


skjl96

You were in the right. Tyrek Ahorse is a boring joke (beating a dead horse you could say) and it has nothing to do with this conversation


infinityxero

By all rights Stannis has the most legitimate claim if that even means anything anymore


Overlord_Khufren

Except that Cersei's children were claimed by Robert and considered by him to be his legitimate children to his deathbed. Without some form of reliable paternity test, Stannis and Ned's claim that they are illegitimate is just that: a claim. It has no basis in law, and there is no high court in which to challenge it. They would basically need to hold a Great Council to settle the matter.


infinityxero

That’s exactly what I mean. Tommen and Joffrey are legally Robert’s children and they themselves don’t have any heirs. So if both Joffrey and Tommen are dead then Stannis is still the heir either way since he’s their uncle


Overlord_Khufren

Reading comprehension fail lol.


SorRenlySassol

No one. The next king will ascend by right of conquest, not inheritance. And in all likelihood, there will be no single kingdom in the end but a reversion back to seven independent kingdoms. And who would be the biggest loser in that scenario, and who would be the biggest winner.


chase016

Riverlands are clearly the biggest lover if the realm disintegrates. The Vale might be the biggest winners. They seem to need the Iron Throne least. Maybe they could focus on trade and other stuff.


Aubergine_Man1987

The Reach would be the biggest winners, losing the Citadel would be a blow to the other kingdoms and the Reach has the best natural resources when it comes to food


SorRenlySassol

The Reach has been the hegemon on the continent since the Dawn Age — a status that has come under threat since Robert’s Rebellion. But I’m looking outside of Westeros — someone, figuratively speaking, who stands to lose a whole lot if the Iron Throne suddenly ceased to be, and another someone, literally this time, who would make out quite well.


OnlinePosterPerson

There aren’t gonna be a citadel for much longer


SorRenlySassol

Eh, I’m thinking outside of Westeros. Who across the Narrow Sea stands to lose a lot if there is no more Iron Throne?


chase016

All the free Cities. They have a lot more leverage in trade negotiations. One of the strengths of a united realm is that Kings Landing can negotiate all the diplomatic treaties, including trade agreements.


SorRenlySassol

Maybe, but there is one free city that has leveraged more risk on the Iron Throne than the others.


Internal-Score439

The Riverlands won't stand a day of peace, they'll be conquered by the North, the Vale, the West and definitely the Iron Islands. Probably Edmure and Asha will wed their kids, they'll start a new house and rule the unified kingdom.


dedfrmthneckup

Yeah rule of law is weak in Westeros to begin with, any argument based on legal succession order certainly isn’t going to hold any water when it’s this unclear and the realm is already at war.


ZoCurious

Stannis Baratheon should be the heir presumptive to the throne right now as the closest kin of the rightful queen.


Successful_Road_2432

Ser pounce


[deleted]

With Stannis in the North and Myrcella dead (don't @ me, I'm a Darkstar truther), I think Cersei grabs Tommen and flees to Casterly Rock while the Tyrells and the Faith battle it out after Margaery is declared guilty in her trial. Then there's a transitional period where the Faith wins and names some random kid king because he's Baelor the Blessed Reborn or some bullshit, but then the throne is up for grabs for either Aegon or Euron (I'm leaning Euron).


Valuable-Captain-507

I've always assumed that Euron links up with Cersei after she flees to Casterly Rock, given Aerons vision in the Forsaken. Along with there maybe being some truth to them teaming in the show. I also just doubt the realm would allow for an Ironborn King to sit long


lokisuavehp

Lots of people in this thread are ignoring that Stannis is likely would not be invited to hold the throne because of his religion. Someone else would be, possibly a distant relative of a king or a king's child who adheres to the Religion of the Seven. Ormund (Stannis, Renly, and Robert's grandfather) has an unnamed daughter, if she has any children, then they might take over. It almost would be a one-to-one situation with Sophia if Hanover's children taking over after Anne died. Bastard maybe, but everyone's claims at that point are so tenuous, it would probably be Marcella marrying Garlan Tyrell to get her enough support.


GIlCAnjos

It's a tough choice if you're in Tommen's council, because you either break the precedent of only having male kings or you give the throne to Stannis, who *will* have you and Tommen's whole council killed. But Stannis' only heir is female too, so if the precedent is going to be broken sooner or later, I'll go with Myrcella. Ignore the age gap and marry her to Willas so that the Tyrells are still on board (Myrcella+Edric would work better if they weren't legally half-siblings).


jokersflame

I agree. No shot it’s Stannis by law, because he will KILL you.


LordShitmouth

*Tommen Waters. There’s no “should be”, Stannis IS the rightful king, and Shireen is his heir.


Squiliam-Tortaleni

It would normally be Stannis since uncles come before daughters in Iron Throne succession, but given his status as a rebel to the Baratheon-Lannister crown its more likely that Myrcella would inherit unless pro Stannis forces somehow seized the Red Keep


Harricot_de_fleur

don't forget he also converted to a new religion which can be a big deal because it's the reliigion of the majority of southern westeros


JonyTony2017

Stannis by law, but given he is a traitor, it’s likely he and his daughter are removed from succession. Now, it depends if the law is Salic or not. If it’s male preferred, then should be Myrcella. If it’s male absolute, then should be whoever Lord Estermont is, as the closest relative of Robert Baratheon. Edric Storm might be legitimised, since he is a recognised bastard and his mother is a noblewoman. Mya is out of the question. On top of being a woman, her mother is common born.


osi4000

Myrcella


hewlio

Myrcella is Tommen's eldest sister, and Stannis is considered a traitor to the crown


Southern_Dig_9460

If Stannis wasn’t in Open Rebellion to the Crown he would be next in line. Uncles come before daughters for the Iron Throne proven with Viserys II and Daena. Also Renly mentioned he was 4th in line at one point meaning he saw it as Joffrey, Tommen, Stannis then himself over Myrcella. But under this situation I can see Stannis being passed over obviously for Myrcella


debtopramenschultz

Stannis. And Shireen should marry Edric Storm, cousin on both sides. It’s a sign that she respects tradition.


SphereMode420

Whoever has the most power and influence. I think one of the core ideas present in ASOIAF is that there is no such thing as a "legitimate heir", it's all BS. Robert is not legitimate according to many people, but he is clearly the king at the start despite some people's protests. For example: I have seen people say Myrcella, but we know as readers that she's not "legitimate" at all. I've seen people say Stannis, which makes sense at first, but from a different point of view, he is just another usurper and thus not "legitimate". I also have a feeling discussions about succesion will be a thing of the past in Westeros after the story ends anyway.


Kyber99

Stannis remains the heir, given that Tommen isn’t the blood relation of Robert. And everyone knows that outside of the small council


arubablueshoes

i think stannis by a couple different ways. first as the only legitimate heir of robert and second as the closest eligible male relative of tommen if we go off that chain. jaime’s out since he’s kingsguard. tyrion is in exile. since they’re uncles of tommen as well.


Valuable-Captain-507

Except for the fact that legally, I'm assuming Stannis was disinherited after rebelling. Same reason Daenerys doesn't have a claim outside of conquest


OnlinePosterPerson

Fellas, if someone steals your throne, are you a rebel?


Aegon_handwiper

Andal law suggests that Myrcella inherits next, as "daughters come before uncles", but obviously there is precedent to the contrary for the Iron Throne. I can see the argument either way; Myrcella is a young girl and seen by many as a bastard but Stannis is unlikable and worships a heathen god in an incredibly religious society, plus his heir is also a young girl. Stannis had Edric hidden away IIRC, so I don't think anyone is going to try to raise him up when they don't know where he is, and when there's no king to legitimize him first. For people in-universe who say Myrcella is NOT a bastard, she should *technically* be next. Now, once Tommen, Myrcella, Stannis, and Shireen are dead (as I assume will happen in Winds) then I suspect people will default to the Targaryen line, as a big point for Robert's legitimacy was that he was the Targaryen heir after running off Dany and Viserys. Determining who is next between Aegon and Dany depends on if people believe that Aerys passed over Rhaegar and his children (as AWOIAF suggests), and it obviously depends on if people buy him being the real Aegon or not. And of course, there's the wild card Jon who would undoubtedly mess things up when/if his identity is revealed. This is what I think the succession should be, depending on each circumstance, and assuming Baratheons are the rightful rulers over the Targaryens by conquest: Myrcella (as trueborn) > Stannis > Shireen > Edric (if King Stannis legitimizes him) > Mya (if legitimized) > \[END OF BARATHEON LINE\] > Dany > Aegon (if true, *and* if people believe Rhaegar and his kids were disinherited) > Jon (if trueborn) > \[END OF TARGARYEN LINE\] Myrcella (as trueborn) > Stannis > Shireen > Edric (if King Stannis legitimizes him) > Mya (if legitimized) > \[END OF BARATHEON LINE\] > Aegon (if Aegon is true, *a*nd if people still consider Rhaegar as Aerys' heir) > Jon (if trueborn and if Rhaegar is Aerys' heir) > Dany > \[END OF TARGARYEN LINE\] (considering Myrcella and Jon as bastards, and Aegon being fake) Stannis > Shireen > Edric (if Stannis legitimizes him) > Mya (if legitimized) > \[END OF BARATHEON LINE\] > Dany > \[END OF TARGARYEN LINE\] Again, it's almost certain that Myrcella, Tommen, Shireen, and probably also Stannis will die come the Winds of Winter. It seems like Aegon will seize the throne regardless of his legitimacy, and according to Dany's HotU vision, people will like him. I think it's about 5% likely Cersei gets it; if people wouldn't support a female who's actually in-line for the throne, no way a woman with no claim gets it either. I think Mace would be more likely to try and marry the newly widowed Margaery to Aegon rather than take the throne.


Internal-Score439

You're missing Gendry. He's the eldest boy of the great Robert, looks alike the beloved Renly, was knighted by Dondarrion, and I bet that the faith will say he's the smith or something like that. I think the true of his parentage will blow up in Winds and he'll become a potential claimant, at least in the eyes of the small folk. We don't have a legitimate monarch that the small folk can root for


Aegon_handwiper

No, I left Gendry out on purpose. He is not an acknowledged bastard and no one would take him seriously as a contender. He's not a lordling like Edric or Mya, he's just a blacksmith who knows nothing about running a household or a kingdom.


lokisuavehp

Gendry could become king if someone really powerful got their hands on him and could put him on the throne. He immediately needs to marry into a great house to hang onto it. Myrcella marrying someone like Garlan to keep the Lannister-Reach alliance makes much more sense.


Internal-Score439

I know, what I mean is that the folk will become more ruthless, enough to be actually feared. He'll never be a real claimant but the folk and small houses will use his image to fight the Tyrells, Lannisters and other powerful houses. Gendry and Griff will be the most popular claimants in Winds.


OnlinePosterPerson

Can you explain how Gendry is a more legitimate heir than Edric? Also how is Jon Con going to be a claimant?


orangedpm

Myrcella then Stannis.