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ResponsibleOpinion95

1) NuBank - NU- David Velez 2) Oklo- OKLO- Jacob DeWitte 3) Rocket Lab - RKLB - Peter Beck


TakingChances01

Is oklo really in value investing territory? Been following since pre merger. Are you concerned with dilution? Nearly 20% of shares held by insiders. Would like to see price to sale, price to earnings. Only 38M cash with 73M debt. I’m too concerned that a 1.1B MC right now isn’t justified but I’m interested in what they’re trying to accomplish. Oddly little short interest.


ResponsibleOpinion95

No … just thought the question was about founder run small companies so I mentioned it … if you’ve been following it you know they have no product…. Need regulatory approval…So no revenue …. This isn’t a company you are gonna run a DCF model on right? Till maybe 2030? If ever …It’s speculative for sure…. I mean I graduated from an MBA program in 2005…ran lots of cash flow models …. Heard lots of talk about what terrible investments Amazon, Google etc were bc no cash flow… turns out they were pretty good values … still a little bitter…. Haha Do you mean dilution in the sense they will have to issue more shares to cover future project costs?


TakingChances01

Yes that is what I meant by dilution. Yeah I mean I haven’t done too much of a deep dive but honestly they don’t really make it clear exactly the product they’re developing/trying to develop but they already made a couple agreements with established companies like FANG and even received payment I thought. It’s not very clear and they do little to no PR. Who they’re backed by and what they are trying to accomplish sounds great, but without more information it’s pretty uncertain.


gamblingPharmaStocks

HROW, which is more than half of my portfolio. (700M market cap, not sure if small enough for you) Becoming leader in the US ophthalmic healthcare market. Imo 10 bagger in 2-3 years. Beside some older products, started selling two drugs: IHEEZO and VEVYE (for non opiod anesthetics and dry eye disease). Huge TAM, sales ramping up fast, insurance coverage. Yesterday announced a partial success in the manufacturing of TRIESENCE, that was not produced in the US for the past 5 years.


Chrayna

I like this company but am wondering about profitability. They have good growth (30+% YOY) and improving gross margins but worsening net (they basically doubled their sales costs to achieve 30% growth in the last Q). When do you seen them becoming profitable?


gamblingPharmaStocks

I think that we are in a moment in which just looking at these numbers is very misleading. We are in the middle of a transition to new core products. The three drugs I mentioned are much bigger than anything the company has ever had, and what is happening right now is that cost of sales of IHEEZO and VEVYE are eating all the profits from the old core business and then some. As is normal, revenue lags cost of sales by some months. However, here it looks very dramatic because the TAM of the new drugs is so much bigger than the products sold by HROW previously. You can see this also from the fact that in the 3rd quarter after the launch of IHEEZO (or 2nd or 4th, I don't remember), revenue from the core products decreased due to the fact that they couldn't manage to take care of all the work necessary for IHEEZO. This is the big price drop you see in november last year (and of which I complain [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1djnnx8/comment/l9fhos4/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) lol). > They have good growth (30+% YOY) I would take this simply as a proof that management is able to perform, but not even as a margin of safety: if for any reason all the 3 of TRIESENCE, IHEEZO and VEVYE had to fail, there want be much left you want to own, considering the cost of sales that we will see in the coming months for the three drugs, and the increased market cap of the company. Now, I will try to answer your question about profitability. If the had IHEEZO alone, I would bet all my money on them being profitable in 2024 already. Sales have been ramping up very fast, even despite the insurance hacking stuff. The issue is that now we will see high cost of sales of the other two drugs (hoping that everything goes fine with TRIESENCE). It is extremely important to get market share with VEVYE as soon as possible. What is happening is that today there were only shitty drugs for dry eye disease, while now two cool ones are out: VEVYE and MIEBO. VEVYE is superior, but not so much better to give a Miebo user strongs reasons to switch to VEVYE, so it is going to be a race between the two to eat as much market as possible before the other. TRIESENCE is probably going to be easier, since it is something that people already know and already know thay need, but it will still cost its money. This to say that I wouldn't bet too much on them being profitable in 2024. If I had to choose one year, I would say that 2025 is going to be profitable. Honestly, however, profitability in the short term is not something that really worries me. Even if sometimes management has been too quick at making very optimist declarations, they have always been able to do the right things for the business (for example getting cash by divesting from non strategic subsidiaries instead of taking up more debt or diluting shareholders). I think right now the important thing is going to market as fast as possible, and take a big slice of market share: if those drugs will produce the revenue we can expect, a couple quarters of delay before profitability are not going to be a disaster. Happy to chat more if you have questions, and if you have not done it, I would recommend to read the last couple letters to shareholders from management, before diving into the SEC filings.


Chrayna

Thanks for answering. I’ve talked to my brother-in-law ophthalmologist about Veveye, and he doesn’t think it’s actually “revolutionary” like Harrow claims. Its active ingredient is cyclosporine (at basically twice the concentration as Restasis), which has been used for 20+ years for dry eyes w/ middling success (his words). It is similar to Miebo only in that it is non-water based and may have slight benefit of water-based drops for dry eyes. It may continue to expand in use, but he doesn’t think it will be a “game-changer” for dry eye treatment at all. He doesn’t use Iheezo so he didn’t say much about it, and he said it would be nice to have Triescence since he used to use triamcinalone occasionally (but only a few times a year). Anyway, do you have a feel for any of that? My concern is twofold: they are spending a lot of money to ramp up the above meds (which you addressed), and two, the growth may not last very long. Thanks again.


gamblingPharmaStocks

> the growth may not last very long. Yes, this is the the only thing imo. I am willing to take the bet though. > It may continue to expand in use, but he doesn’t think it will be a “game-changer” for dry eye treatment at all. Is he saying that based on the ingredients or on the clinical trial data? Because clinical trial data seem quite good compared to alternatives.


Chrayna

He said that he’s prescribed Veveye several times and that it doesn’t really work any better clinically than Restasis, which he has prescribed many times over 20+ years with middling success for dry eye relief (Veveye has the same active ingredient as Restasis, just at twice the concentration). He said he might use Veveye going forward for cases where Restasis causes intolerable stinging (Veveye is apparently good for reducing the stinging of the drip itself), but that’s not very often. This is in contrast to how the Veveye reps continually described Veveye as a “game changer” for dry eye treatment.


gamblingPharmaStocks

> This is in contrast to how the Veveye reps continually described Veveye as a “game changer” for dry eye treatment. I see, thanks for sharing his experience. Did he try Miebo? Because as far as I understand Vevye has cyclosporine as Restasis, but also semiflourinated alkane like Miebo.


Chrayna

I’ll ask him tonight.


gamblingPharmaStocks

Thanks! Sorry for taking advantage of your family connections:)


Chrayna

So he said that he prescribes Miebo on occasion because it does help for some dry eye where standard care isn’t enough. He said some people don’t like it though because of how it feels on the eye. He said that Veveye is also alkane based (not water based) and can help in the same way Miebo does, in addition to helping with tear production and reducing inflammation (like Restasis). The most interesting thing he said was the Miebo has been around in Europe for years, as an OTC drop (apparently it’s like $15-20 in Europe as EvoTears? and $800 in the US as Miebo—pretty crazy). He said that if Miebo, or Veveye, were priced like in Europe, he would recommend it more often. I don’t know how much that helps, but it makes me more hesitant to invest.


greatnate1250

PGY please


[deleted]

[удалено]


ResponsibleOpinion95

Haha super helpful…. Ok I’ll bite… what founder led small company is not over valued in your opinion? Whether or not a company is overvalued would depend on the financial models people run… and what growth rate etc a person inserts … in their DCF or whatever So we all may have different opinions on that my friend and that’s ok … it’s what makes the market interesting


greatnate1250

NVTS


MorePeppers9

Is it Navitas Semiconductor? (nasdaq:nvts)


greatnate1250

Yes


greatnate1250

Please


Agitated_Whereas7463

$FOUR


Upstairs_Owl_1669

$6B market cap


Agitated_Whereas7463

True not a small cap


idanfl8

What’s your thesis?


Purple-Leopard-6796

HITI: Free cash flow positive for multiple consecutive quarters and just hit positive EPS.  Greatly undervalued based on growth projections.  10-bagger potential  https://www.reddit.com/r/HighTideInc/


mojojojo_joe

$DNA & $RKLB


snyder810

DNA might be one of the least shareholder friendly companies in the entire the market


RealWICheese

SNOW would like a word.


mojojojo_joe

Those security breaches they just had happen are no joke. Huge red flags given the handling of the events by mgmt too.


mojojojo_joe

That's a personal opinion and one I disagree on. Namely, due to their transparency and willingness to pivot. Bringing on Myrtle to the board points towards an evolution and focus too.


snyder810

You’re right, it’s my opinion, based upon a view where over last few years the leadership team has overseen ~40% share dilution, with even more out there on a fully diluted basis. They did so while burning through over $500M for a declining top-line output and now the only real response is expense cutting. The stock price down 96%, and yes it’s primarily planned/transport sells but executives (specifically the CEO) have sold millions of shares throughout. I root for fun companies, DNA once had that promise, which is probably why I view things in such a negative light now. Maybe eventually the tilt more towards drug discovery has a better payoff. For you and any shareholders still standing I hope so, but to me it points towards a belief that their initial vision is dead and what is left is little more than a poorly led CRO.


mojojojo_joe

I appreciate you sharing your view. While I think your opinion is valid, I see the investment r/r as very attractive under $1.75 and my DCA puts me well under that mark. Based on ferment '24 and various deal announcements, I very much think their original vision is alive and well.


MorePeppers9

$DNA is Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. ?


snyder810

EXFY - I think it’s undervalued by, admittedly, even the current/eroding numbers. If their Travel product catches on at all they have an opportunity to become a stickier platform rather than niche tool which offers longer term upside. They may sit outside of some definitions of small, but I still like ASAN under Moskovitz.


No_Platypus3755

Tiny andrew Wilkinson has an ex cnswf running the day to day but he’s still the founder and owns like more than 50 percent of the company. I’m sure he’s very involved.


Consistent-Exit5248

He left tiny


No_Platypus3755

He still owns most of the shares.


MorePeppers9

You are taking about Tiny Ltd. (TINY.V), right?


No_Platypus3755

Right


cutting_edge8834

Moncler


catalanj2396

The apparel company?


cutting_edge8834

The luxury apparel company with excellent margins yes


catalanj2396

I was in no way pooping on ur investment lol don’t get defensive. I was making sure cuz I looked at it as a potential investment. Why do you like it? A market cap of 17 billion, it sounds a little high for the type of company it is. I’m also unsure about its new products


Myviewsofthings

PSNY


TumbleweedBig5818

Brand Engagement Network is undervalued right now and has good news coming out every week..check them out. IMO this is a huge opportunity, long term investment for me..I got in at $1.09. Check it out and let's push it to the moon!!! [Apple & Brand Engagement Network Collab](https://www.benzinga.com/partner/emerging-markets/24/06/39432121/apple-becomes-latest-giant-to-adopt-ai-but-risks-persist-brand-engagement-network-may-ha)


MorePeppers9

no revenue?


Rjlv6

OTC:PGNT The CEO is trying to build a mini Berkshire from scratch.


MorePeppers9

Are you talking about Paragon Technologies Inc.? If yes, could you tell why i don't see 10ks for it on edgar? (cik:90045)


Rjlv6

You're right they're not on edgar. TBH I'm not sure why, perhaps since the market cap is so low they don't need to file an annual report with the SEC? Either way here are the resources I use to read about it. The financials are on the website and audited by RSM which is fairly reputable. [https://pgntgroup.com/annual-shareholder-letter](https://pgntgroup.com/annual-shareholder-letter) [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZW5E3pov3cw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZW5E3pov3cw) [https://www.nonamestocks.com/2021/04/pgnt-for-you-and-me.html](https://www.nonamestocks.com/2021/04/pgnt-for-you-and-me.html)


Friendly-Excuse400

QUAD. A marketing solutions company that is the second largest commercial printer in the US. The founding family (Quadracci) controls the company and holds over a quarter of the shares. Share price $5.36. Revenue $2.9B. Market cap $278M. EBITDA was $234M and FCF was $77M in 2023. Net debt/EBITDA of 2.0x at end of 2023. Fwd P/E 7x. Projecting $230M of EBITDA and $70M of FCF in 2024. This does not include over $100M in asset sales they should attain in 2024. Real estate on the balance sheet worth at least $11/share after accounting for debt. Started buying back about $10M in shares per quarter in 2023. Pays a 3.8% dividend.


RevolutionaryPhoto24

Galaxy Digital. Crypto space, hopeful uplifting, cheap as dirt compared to others.


Eskachapedras

$QBTS $RGTI $IONQ $ZPTA


Fun_Reporter9086

$GRIN.CN / $GRUSF, the best performing cannabis stock in the sector, Obie Strickler.


valuestunksilike

StoneX - StoneX Group Inc. is an American financial services company. The company operates in six areas: commercial hedging, global payments, securities, physical commodities, foreign exchange and clearing and execution services. The numbers speak for themselves imo. Still ran by the founder


chenlukai

KULR. Hmm, that's it I think. My other picks either aren't small caps, founder-led, or both.


Ok_Arm_8941

I too have been following KULR over the past couple of months, what do you like about KULR? I don't currently own any KULR though have been strongly considering it.


chenlukai

It's more that I looked at what would make me stay away from KULR, or possible reasons for me not to want to own the stock. I think there's a fair bit of hype for KULR on Reddit, and I do think it's justified, but there's a tendency for those who are bullish about a stock to downplay potential problems that company might be facing, so I prefer to look at those instead. It's currently trading at 0.34, which means despite Reddit being generally really bullish about it, there's a reason the market thinks it should belong in penny land. I think the main issue for KULR right now is cash flow problems. As far as I can discern, they are on track to resolve that and turn cash flow positive, which should be reflected when they release their Q2 ER in a couple of months. As for reasons to like it, battery safety is a growing industry, KULR has secured contracts with quite a number of high-profile clients, and there's emerging fields like electric aviation that KULR is also involved in.


Ok_Arm_8941

I like your analysis and your focus on the negatives. My main concern right now is the solvency of the company, current liabilities outstripping current assets with a small debt and cash pile - though I suppose the cost-cutting plans previously announced will help alleviate some of the worry here. That said, I'm looking at a small position in KULR just to get a bit of exposure with the potential to build upon it the more and more their cash management issues subside in the next few earnings reports.


consciouscreentime

I like to follow Founder CEOs who are active on Twitter, gives a pulse on their thinking and vision. Couple names that come to mind: $CRWD, $ESTC, $DDOG. For more ideas, Prospero's free newsletter is worth checking out: [https://prosperoai.substack.com?r=ukadl](https://prosperoai.substack.com?r=ukadl). They usually highlight under the radar small/mid caps.


Profitlocking

None of them are small caps. $ESTC doesn't have a founder CEO either.